Zone Media. Hello, and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your host ed Zitron. What In the last episode, I walked you through how GENERALIFAI has hit its ceiling and how big tech has burned billions of dollars chasing a technology that really isn't going to give them the returns they got from the smartphone and cloud computing revolutions, not that that's going.
To stop them.
In this episode, I'm going to walk you through the potentially massive problems they have ahead, the ones they've created by building these massive supercomputers, the ones necessary to capture this imaginary demand of this kind of bullshit AI revolution, and I'm going to try and guess what might happen next.
All right, So, the AI boom helped the S and P five hundred hit record levels in twenty twenty four, largely thanks to chip giant Nvidia, a company that makes both the GPUs necessary to train and run generative AI and the software architecture behind them, as well as some
other server parts too. Part of Nvidia's remarkable growth has been its ability to capitalize on Kuda architecture, the software layer that lets you do complex computing on GPUs rather than simply using them to render video games or complex three D images. Someone's going to email and say that that's partially wrong.
Just bear with me.
And of course, one of Nvidia's other things they do is continually create new GPUs to sell for tens of thousands of dollars to tech companies that want to burn billions of dollars on GENERATIVII, which has led Nvidia's stock to pop more than one hundred and seventy nine percent
over the last year. Back in May, in Vidia's CEO and professional Carnival Barker Jensen Wang said that the company was now and I quote on a one year rhythm in AIGPU production with its latest Blackwell GPUs, specifically the B one hundred, B two hundred and GBT two hundred used of Regenerative AI, supposedly due at the end of twenty twenty four, except they're now delayed until at least
March twenty twenty five. Now, before we go any firm, it's worth noting that when I say GPU, I don't mean the one you'd find in the gaming PC, but a much much larger chip put on a specialized server and actually a specialized board as well. With multiple other GPUs, all integrated with special case in cooling and networking infrastructure, all of which is sold by Nvidia. By the way, you can use other things, but as well buy it
in one place, right, That's their product strategy. In simple terms, these are the things necessary to make sure all these chips work together efficiently and also stop them from overheating because they get extremely hot, and generative AI makes them run at full speed all the time.
Now, the initial.
Delay of the new Blackwell chips is caused by a now fixed design, floor and production. But as I've previously suggested, the problem isn't just creating the chips, it's making sure they actually work at scale for the jobs they've.
Been bought for.
Now what if that wasn't possible a few weeks ago? The Information Report and Video is currently grappling with the oldest problem in computing, how to cool the fucking things. According to their report, and Video has been asking supplies to change the design of its three thousand pound seventy five GPU server racks several times to overcome these heating problems, which the Information calls quote the most complicated design that Nvideo had ever come up with. According to the report.
A few months after revealing the racks, engineers found that they didn't work properly even when they use the smaller thirty six chip racks, and they've been kind of scrambling to fix it ever since.
While one can dazzle investors with.
Buzzwords, charts and the term superintelligence, the laws of physics are a little bit more of a harsh mistress. And if in Video is struggling mere months before the first installations to begin, though I've heard some are going out now, it's kind of unclear how they practically plan to launch this next generation of chips, let alone doing another one
in a year. The Information reports that these changes have been made late in production, which is scaring customers that desperately need them now so that their models can continue to do something that they will work out later.
To quote the Information again.
Secutives at large cloud providers that have ordered the new chips said they're concerned that such last minute difficulties might push back the timeline for when they can get their GPU clusters up and running next year. The fact that in video is having such significant difficulties with thermal performance.
Is very, very bad.
These chips are very expensive thirty to seventy grand I hear and will be running, as I've mentioned, at full speed, generating an incredible amount of heat that must be dissipated while sat next to anywhere from thirty five to seventy one other chips, which will in turn be densely packed so that you can cram more servers into a data center.
New more powerful chips require entirely new methods to rack, mount them, operate them, and cool them, and all of these parts must operate and sync as overheating GPUs will die. And while these units are big, some of their internal components and nanometers in size, and unless properly cool their circus will start to crumble when roasted by a guy typing Garfield with a guarn and a bra into chat GPT, which I have never done. Of course, Remember Blackwell is
supposed to be in videos big thing. It's meant to represent a major leap forward in performance. If in Vidia doesn't solve its cooling problem, and solve it well, its customers will undoubtedly encounter thermal throttling, where the chip reduces its speed in order to avoid causing any permanent damage. It could eliminate some more all of the performance gains obtained from the new architecture a new manufacturing process, despite costing much much more, both for the chips itself and
the housing for them. In Vidio's problem isn't just bringing these thermal performance issues under control, but both keeping them under control and being able to educate their customers on how to do so. In Vidia has, according to the information, repeatedly tried to influence its customer server integrations to follow its designs because it thinks it will lead to better performance.
But in this case one has to worry. If in Vidia's black Well chips can be reliably cooled, maybe they can in videos worked out crazy things in the past, and while in video might be able to fix this problem in isolation within its racks, it remains to be seen how this works at scale as they ship and integrate hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs starting in the
front half of twenty twenty five. Things also get a little worse when you realize how these chips are being installed in these giant supercomputer data centers, where tens of thousands are as many as one hundred thousand of them. In the case of Elon Musk's Colossus Data center, which is just very funny that that's what it's for.
It's for GROC on a dying social network.
But yeah, these GPUs, they're running concert to power generative AI models.
That's all they're really for.
And The Wall Street Journal reported a few weeks ago that building these vast data centers creates entirely new engineering challenges, with one expert saying that big tech companies could be spending as much of half of their capital expenditures on replacing parts that are broken down, in large part because these clusters are running on GPUs that are running at full speed that need to all be cooled and need to be cooled.
Well.
Remember the capital expenditures on generative AI and the associated infrastructure have gone over two hundred billion dollars in the last year. If half of that's dedicated to replacing broken shit. What happens when there's no path of profitability in any case is fine, they'll work it out well enough to keep flogging these things. They've already made billions of dollars selling Blackwells. They're sold out for a year, in fact,
and they'll continue to do so for now. But any manufacturing and cooling issues are going to be very costly, and even then, at some point somebody has to ask the question, why do we need all these GPUs if we've reached PKI. Despite the remarkable power of these chips. In Vidia's entire enterprise GPU business model centers around the idea that throwing more power at these problems will finally create some solutions.
What if that isn't the case?
Though? So as ever, I'm kind of pissed off. I'm pissed off reading this stuff. And it's not just because I was saying this months ago. It's because all of this money could have gone literally anywhere else. They could have done something else, they could have I don't know, I'm not running a big tech company, but I would have put it into climate stuff or new battery technology.
Everyone's saying, oh, we'll make our own chips now, Yes, see you in a few years, dickhead, Well, you go to TSMC and ask if they've got any spare slot. I'm sure they've got plenty. I'm sure that you can just go and build a chip tomorrow. Sam Moultman talking about building his own goddamn chips. What an absolute fast?
This is?
This fucking fast? All of this money burned in search of a technology that only kind of works on something. Sometimes it's just kind of a joke. The tech industry is over leverage. They've doubled, they've tripled the kadrupled down on generative AI now and this technology does not do much more than it did a few months ago, And I don't think it's going to do very much more in a few months. Every single big tech companies pulled tens of billions of dollars into building out these massive
superclusters with the intent of capturing AI demand. Yet they never seem to think whether they were actually building things that people wanted or would pay for, or that would make the money, or that would help you manity in any way, or really anything to do with an outcome other than line go up. While some have claimed that agents are the next frontier AI, Agents frontier Jesus, Nope, keep him, The reality is that agents may be the
last generative AI product. Multiple large language models and integrations bouncing off of each other in attempt to simulate what a human might do at a cost that won't be sustainable for the majority of businesses. While Anthropics demo of its alleged model that can control a few browser windows with a prompt might have seemed impressive to credulous people, specifically mean casing you. And here these were controlled demos which Anthropic added with slow and make lots of mistakes. Hey,
almost like it's hallucinating. I sure hope they fixed that unfixable problem I'd be talking about for months.
Jesus Christ.
Even if it does, Anthropic has now successfully replaced an entry full data worker position at an indeterminate cost, and likely an unprofitable one too. And in many organizations those jobs have already been outsourced or automated or start with cheap contractors. So the people who are going to lose out here are people who are already getting shot on by life.
It really sucks.
And the obscenity of this mass delusion, it's just nauseating. It's a monolith to bad decision making and the herd mentality of tech's most powerful people, as well as an outright attempt to manipulate the media into believing something was possible that never was, and the media bought it, hook line and sinker.
You all bought it.
Hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted building giant data centers to crunch numbers for software that has no real product market fit, or while trying to hammer it into various shapes to make it pretend that it's alive, conscious, or even fucking useful. There is no path, from what I can see, to turning generative AI from what it
is today into anything resembling a sustainable business. And the only path that big tech appeared to have seen or thought about was to throw as much money, power and data at the problem. An avenue that appeared to be and definitely appears to be now a complete dead end, and we're still nothing's really come out of this movement. I've used a handful of AI products that I found useful, and aipower journal, for example, but these are not products
that one associates with revolutions. They're useful tools that would have been a welcome surprised if it didn't require burning billions of dollars, blowing past emissions targets, and stealing the creative works of millions of people to train them. It's just sickening. It's sickening because this did not have to happen. Had suned up Ashay seen what Microsoft did with open AI and said not for me, mate, That's definitely not how he talks. But nevertheless, none of this would have continued.
You think Microsoft was going to hold this shit up on their own. God, No, they have no juice such an Adela. He's just a he's a cult leader, something I'm going to get into in a later episode. And it's just it's all very sad. But if you want to cheer yourself up, maybe you could listen to one of the following advertisements. And this is a short episode, so if they don't put one after this, you might just have a short gap between me talking. That's up
to Matt. MAT's a genius. That's my producer, by the way, Mattasowski. Anyway, ads, and we're back. Look, I truly don't know what happens next, but I'm going to walk you through what I'm thinking.
If we're truly at the diminishing.
Return stage of transformer based models, it's going to be extremely difficult to justify buying further iterations of Nvidia GPUs past Blackwell, and also I have doubts they're going to be able to make a new one every year. The entire generative AI movement lives and dies by the idea that more compute power and more training data makes these things better. And if that's no longer the case, there's not really a reason to keep buying bigger and better.
What's the point even now? What exactly happens when Microsoft or Google has racks worth of Blackwell GPUs? What does aren't getting better faster? I guess what does faster even mean? What does better even mean? Better has yet to me in a new product? Better has not seem to be measurable by humans just by bullshit benchmarks. This also makes the lives of open Ai and Anthropic a little more difficult.
Sam Altman has grown rich in power for lying about how GPT will somehow lead to AGI some conscious computer. But at this point, what exactly is open ai meant to do? What are they doing? The only way it's this company has ever been able to develop new models is by throwing masses of compute and training data at them.
And there are only other choices to start stapling its their reasoning model onto the side of their large language model, at which point something happens something everyone It's happening something that is so good that literally nobody working for open aire in the media appears to be able to tell you what it is.
Yeah.
Putting that aside, open ai is also a terrible business that has to burn five billion dollars to make three point seven billion dollars, and there's no proof that they're able to bring down their costs. The constant thing I hear from VC's and AI fantasist is that the chips will bring down the cost of inference. Yet I don't see that happening. I've yet to see that happening. There's cerebrus dinner plate sized chips, but you know what, I
just don't think that shit's going to scale. And at that point you have to wonder do they have like where is this going? I know you're listening to an episode where I tell you, but still even reading this stuff all day, you just look at it too hard and you start feeling a little crazy. I've read pretty much every article on open ai at this point. I've read Microsoft's earnings multiple quarters straight. Same with the rest of them. I've read all their blog posts, I've read
all their shit. They don't have any idea. I'm confident that they don't have any idea. It's terrifying and this is just this dismal situation where the only other there's really only a few options. If I'm honest, you stop now. That is the biggest one. You just stop. Someone has to admit, Microsoft, Google, They'll never do this. They need to go this is not going to scale. We need to pair this back or we need to stop it. And it will hurt their stock, it will hurt their media.
But it's the right thing to do for the environment alone, but as a sustainable busines. But assuming they don't do that, we have another problem, which is the only other option
they can have is to keep flooring the gas. It costs one hundred million dollars to train GPT four to zero, and anthropic CEO Dario ami Day estimated a few months ago that training future models would cost one billion, if not ten billion dollars, with one researcher claiming that training open AI's next model, GPT five will cost around a billion dollars outside of a miracle.
We're about to enter an era of desperation in generative AI.
We're two years in and we have no killer apps, no industry defining products other than chat GPT, a product that burns billions of doddlers, and nobody.
Can really describe every episode.
I'm like, email me, tell me what chat GPT is, and I'll get some smart us who sends me three paragraphs. No, no, no, no, no, that's not a description, that's an essay. May you actually need to tell me what the hell this is? And if you can't, you've proven my point in my extremely
thin and rigged game. Anyway, neither Microsoft, nor Meta, nor Google, no Amazon seemed to be able to come up with any profitable use cases, let alone one their users actually like, Nor have any of the people that have raised billions of dollars in venture capital for anything with AI take to the side. An investor interest in AI is already cooling.
According to the information, It's kind of unclear how far this fast goes from here, if only because it isn't obvious what it is that anybody gets by investing in future rounds of open Aianthropic or any of these other generative AI companies. At some point, they must make money, and the entire dream has been built around the idea that all of these GPUs and all of this money would eventually spit out something, something revolutionary, something world changing.
What we have is this clunky, ugly, messy, lasceness, environmentally destructive and mediocre.
Piece of shit.
Generative AI was a reckless pursuit, one that shows a total lack of creativity and sense in the minds of big tech in venture capital, one where there was never anything really impressive other than the amount of money it could burn on the amount of time samal And could say something stupid and get quoted for it. I'll be honest with you, I don't really know what happens here. The future was always one that demanded big tech spend more to make even bigger models that would at some
point become useful, and it isn't happening. In pursuit of doing so, big tech invested hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure specifically to follow one goal and put AI front and center of their businesses, claiming it was the future without ever checking if it was, if it actually did anything useful. And really they, as I've said in the rock com bubble a few months ago, they don't
have anything else. They don't have another growth market, and maybe that's why they're shoving all the cash into this, because they don't.
Have it anywhere. Else to put it.
They don't want to admit they've got nothing else. They don't want to admit that their businesses are crumbling under scrutiny from antitrust. They don't want to admit their services are kind of deteriorating, especially in the case of Meta. They don't have anything else. The revenue isn't coming, the products aren't coming. Oryan open AI's next model, it will underwhelm, as will its competitors model, and at some point, think somebody is going to blink in one of the hyperscalers
and the AI era will end. Almost every single GENERAI company that you've heard of is deeply unprofitable, and there are very few innovations coming to save them from the atrophy of the Foundation model system, which by the way, is the main large language models that they're training in all of these cases. Now, I've tried to keep my emotions in check, but you might you might be able to tell that this pisses me off a little. I
just feel sad and exhausted about it all. I feel drained as I look at how many times I've tried to warm people. I'm pissed off at the many members of the media that failed to push back against the over promises and outright lies of people like Sam Altman and Dario Ami Day. Warrio ami Day is what I'm calling him now. It's not particularly funny ira acurate, but
it's funny to say for me. And I'm just full of dread as I consider the economic ramifications of this industry collapsing, as well as the damage it's already done to our fucking environment. Once the AI bubble pops, there are no hyper growth markets left, which will in turn lead to a blood bath in big tech stocks as they really that they're out of big ideas to convince
the street that they're going to grow forever. There are some that will boast about being right here, and yes, there is some satisfaction in being so, of course, of course you take the moment, you do the victory lap. Whatever I said a thing, and I was right. I don't know if I'm I'm really doing the joker kick down the stairs here. I don't know if I'm really happy about being right here. I think generative AI is a huge waste of money. I think the damage it's
doing to the environment is disgusting. I think the stealing required to make the training data side is disgusting. I think all of that ending is good, and I think it needs to just to be clear or I sit. But you know what, the other problem is that when this all falls apart, it's going to be rough. It's going to be rough for people in the tech industry, and it's going to be rough for the economy. So
I'm gonna start wrapping up here. I'm gonna read you a quote from Bubble Trouble, a piece I wrote in April. Hum how do you solve all of these incredibly difficult problems? What does open ai or Anthropic do when they run out of data and the synthetic data doesn't fill the gap, or worse, massively degrades the quality of their outputs. What does Sam Moltman do if GPT five, like GPT four, doesn't significantly improve its performance and he can't find enough
compute to make the next step. What do open ai and Anthropic do when they realize they'll likely never turn a profit. What does Microsoft, gra Amazon or Google do if demand never really takes off and they' left with billions of dollars of underutilized data centers. What does Nvidia do if the demand for its chips drops off a cliff as a result. I don't know why more people aren't screaming from the rooftops about how unsustainable the AI boom is and how impossible some of the challenges are
that it faces. There is no way to create enough training data for these models, and little that we've seen so far suggests that generative AI will make anybody but Nvidio money. We're reaching the point where physics, things like heat and electricity are getting in the way of progressing much further, and it's hard to stomach investing more considering where we're at right now. Once you cut through the noise,
it just seems kind of fairly goddamn mediocre. There's no iPhone moment coming, I'm afraid, so all right, not gonna be too smug, but reading that.
Back pretty accurate, Pretty good for April.
I was right then, I'm right now. Generative AI isn't a revolution. It's an evolution of a tech industry overtaken by growth hungry management consultant freaks that I neither know the problems that real people face nor how to fix them.
It's a waste.
It's a sickening waste, a monument to the corrupting force of growth and a sign that people in power and tech no longer work for you, the customer, but for venture capitalists and for the markets. I also want to be clear that none of these companies seem to have ever had a plan. They believed that if they threw enough GPUs together, they would turn generative AI with a probabilistic model for generating stef either into a sentient computer in open AI's case, or into some sort of useful
product in Microsoft's case. Neither of them are right, And I get it. I get some of you that you're like, well, this is all a big plan, so they can proliferate data centers. This is all a big plans. They can steal everything and ship it back to us, so they
can do this to us. It's much easier and more comfortable to look at the world as a series of conspiracies, these grand strategies, and that all of these people are powerful, which they are, but powerful in a way that is kind of the dread hand controlling your everything.
But honestly, it's.
Far scarier to see reality for what it is. Extremely rich and powerful people that are willing to bed insanely large amounts of money on what amounts to a few PDFs. In their fucking gut, these people have no plan. This is not big takes big plan, or they're excused to build more data centers. It's the death throws of twenty years of growth or costs thinking, because throwing a bunch of money at more servers and more engineers always seem to create more.
Growth in the past.
In practice, this means that the people in charge and the strategies they employ are born not of an interest in improving the lives of you their customer, but in increasing revenue growth, which means products they create aren't really about solving any problem other than what will make somebody give me more money, which doesn't necessarily mean provide them with a service. Generative AI is the perfect monster of
the row economy. It's a technology that lacks any real purpose, sold as if it could do literally anything, one without a real business model or a killer app, proliferated because big tech no longer innovates, They clone, and they monopolize. Yes, this much money can be this stupid, and yes they will burn billions more in pursuit of a non specific dream that involves charging you more money and trapping you in their ecosystem. But they're out of ideas. This was
their big thing. If they had anything else, they wouldn't have done this.
They don't. They're kind of screwed.
I don't know how long it will take for you to see how much they're screwed. Could be a year, could be two quarters. I honestly don't know. But it cannot go on like this. It cannot because at some point, burning billions of dollars every month is not going to work. At some point, the markets will react, or at some point, I don't know, CFO of Microsoft Damian Hood might say, hey, we're burning billions of dollars to lose billions of dollars.
We don't have the customers, these products aren't useful enough, or maybe she keeps driving to hell.
I don't know.
But the longer it takes, the worse it's going to be for the industry and for the markets. I'm not trying to be a doom set, just like I wasn't trying to be one in March. I believe all of this is going nowhere, and that at some point, Google, Microsoft, Meta, one of them is going to blink and they're going
to pull back on the capex. And before then, you're going to see a lot of desperate stories about how AI gains can be found outside of training you models to try and keep the party going despite reality, flicking the lights on and off and threatening to call the police on them. Really, though, you're going to see so much of that. You're going to see people in the media who should know better still pumping, still pumping that bag.
Because it gets back to the conspiracy theory I was talking about before it gets back there, because it's so much easier to think, Ah, they'll work it out, they're smart. I trust them. I trust these people. They're going to work out and make Generative AI make so much money. It's going to be so profitable. Alw it's going to be so good. Because when you don't accept that premise, everything you write about it feels like writing about a dying person. Oh, anthropic claims it can write in your
writing style. Now, great, where's anthropic going to be in two years? The toilet probably going to need a pretty big toilet for all those GPUs. Oh open AI. They have this idea, Yeah, their ideas have fucking suck, so far and the irony is large. Language models as an idea aren't a bad one. The concept is interesting, a word, calculator, sexy, orto, correct, whatever you call it. There are meaningful things you could build with that, but not at this cost, not like this,
not this much money. Not stealing from artists, not stealing from writers. I don't know if mine have been used, but if they have, I got the legal resources to fight, and I fucking will. I'm sick of this shit. I'm sick of what I see in being done to contractors. I'm sick of what I see happening to art directors who lose their jobs to some shitthead using day three mini.
It's grotesque. It's enough to turn your stomach. And as we come towards the end of the year, you may have at the beginning of the show and been like, why Ed is so Why is he so annoyed? I think I've done a good job explaining it, but I want to end on a good note and look, I fear for the future for many reasons, but I always have hope because I believe that there are still good people in the tech industry, and I love technology. I'm going to say every episode that I can, because I
really do. I love my computer. I love the people are fine through it. I love the friends and the families loved one I've found through it, and I know a lot of you do too. And I want to make that clear because none of this is a problem with tech as a whole. The people who have taken over tech are the problem, the management consultant elite, the business people who just want to see growth at all costs.
But I do have hope.
I do have hope because of Blue Sky, which is a social network that I've posted on for over a year that's finally taking route.
And this isn't an ad.
This is just somewhere I spend eleven hours a day posting, but it feels different.
It's growing rapidly.
It's competing with Threads and with Twitter, and they're doing someone on an honest product and an open protocol. I'm not saying it's the solution for everything. I'm just saying solutions are possible. People are building them, people are trying. It doesn't have to be like this. The rot economy does not have to control the destiny of tech, and I think better things can happen.
It's going to take a while. Things are going to blow up.
I'm scared for this industry for what happens after Generative AA collapses, and not just for the initial problem, but when they don't have anything else the next quarter. But there are other ideas out there. There are other ideas of the future that aren't just born out of this shitty, scuzzy billionaire mindset from shit heels like Sandar Pashai and Sam Ortman and Prabagar Ragavan. And they can and they will grow out of the ruins that these people create.
I want you to have hope. Hope isn't just about blindly being optimistic. You can feel hopeful while still being pissed off at everything. Hope is about getting up every day and being willing to say what you think better looks like, what you think a better world could be. You don't have to do it at scale. You don't have to be an influencer. You don't have to write, you don't have to have a tech podcast. You just have to talk to your friends. You have to talk
to the people you know. You have to fight within the institutions you are in to find the joy and to push out things like generative AI. We can have better and you are the beginning of fixing these problems. And I actually believe that with enough pushback, these big tech companies can change too. I'm not relying on them. I hate that I have to use their products, but you don't. Perhaps you can find alternatives. I always say it's a great day to join blue Sky or use
Signal proton males apparently great. I'm very much stuck in the Gmail ecosystem, which sucks a few decades in there.
It's tough, is it decades now?
Either way, It's hard to escape the rot economy whole, but there are bits of yourself you can remove from it.
Please do not give up hope. Please stay angry.
If you are angry, not telling you to be angry. Your indignation is necessary. Your righteous indignation is necessary to tell these people to go fucking pounds sand your little changes. Those discussions you have with colleagues and friends and loved ones about these problems. That knowledge is powerful, and I encourage you to talk about these things. The tech industry has grown big and strong, telling you you're too stupid
to understand what they're doing. And unless I'm very much mistaken based on the readers and listeners to talk to you all get this. I just explained GPUs and server architecture, and shit, I think you mostly got it right. I'm assuming you did. You keep listening, and that's because this stuff isn't that complex. They want you to believe it is so that they can stay powerful. But you're a lot goddamn smarter than you give yourself credit for. You're
a lot goddamn stronger than you are too. Don't let these people make you feel oppressed. Don't let them make you feel weak.
You are not.
You are so much more valuable to them than they'll ever be to you.
You have been conned.
You are the victim, and you will succeed long term. Spread the good ideas. Talk about what a good world looks like, and thank you for listening. Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matosowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at Mattasowski dot com m A T T O.
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