Statistics for Large Language Models

This academic paper explores the critical role of statistical foundations in the development and application of Large Language Models (LLMs). The author argues that LLMs are fundamentally statistical due to their reliance on vast datasets and their probabilistic generation processes. Their "black-box" nature, stemming from complexity and scale, further necessitates statistical methods as purely mechanistic analyses are often impractical. The paper highlights specific areas where statistical approaches are crucial, such as aligning LLMs with human preferences, watermarking AI-generated text, quantifying uncertainty in outputs, evaluating model performance, and optimizing training data mixtures. Ultimately, the paper suggests that statistical research on LLMs will likely form a collection of specialized topics rather than a single overarching theory.