Hi, get everybody. I'm Dan Horde and thanks for downloading the Bengals Booth Podcast. The There's just no telling how far I'll go. Addition, as we look ahead to the twenty twenty four season with Robert Weintraub, who writes about the Bengals for the FTN Football Almanac and Cincinnati Magazine
dot com. The Bengals Booth Podcast is brought to you by pay Core, Proud to be the Bengals official HR software provider, by Alta Fiber future proof fiber Internet designed to elevate your home, business and community to a new level, and by Kettering Health the best care for the best fans. Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider of the Bengals. Now here's a quick reminder that you can have the latest edition of this podcast delivered right to your phone, tablet,
or computer by subscribing wherever you get your podcasts. It's the greatest thing since the Cincinnati Three Way. No, this is not a reference to Skyline Chile. The three Way in this case is the trio of Joe Burrow, Red shortstop Eli de la Cruz and FC Cincinnati midfielder Lucco Acosta. Does any city have a more fun and charismatic trio of sports stars in different sports than Cincinnati. De la Cruz is an All Star at twenty two years old and on a pace to have twenty six homers in
seventy eight stolen bases this season. Acosta is the reigning MLS MVP and currently has five more assists than anybody else in the league. Leonel Messi ranked second, and the last three times Joe Burrow has finished a season healthy, he's won a college national championship, gone to the Super Bowl, and made it to the AFC Championship Game. They say that good things come in threes, and I can't think of another city with a better trio of must see
sports stars. Now time for this week's guest. The ft On Football Almanac, formerly known as the Football Outsiders Almanac, came out this week and if you're thinking about buying one preseason guide to the NFL, this is the one to get. There are a lot of stats in advanced data in the book if that's your thing, but I mostly enjoy it for the writing. The Almanac is not
only informative, it's very entertaining. There's an in depth look at every NFL team and the Cincinnati chapter was written by my friend Robert Weintraup, who also writes about the Bengals on a regular basis for Cincinnati Magazine dot com. Robert, I want to start with a sentence in your season preview that sounds a little ominous for Bengals fans.
Here's the quote.
The team is poised for one more championship run before Joe Burrow's massive contract extension fully kicks in in twenty twenty five. Do you view this as something of a make or break year?
Make or break is awfully strong, you know, especially in Cincinnati. I know they don't ever look at, you know, their team that way. It's always with a big picture, and certainly fans don't want to think of it that way in terms of, hey, we got to be here next year. What's going to happen if they don't win the Super Bowl? Joe Burrow's gonna be traded, you know. I mean Jamar Chay He's going to go into his fashion career and Jamar Chase will be alongside him wherever he goes. And
Perry or Milan or whatever. I don't think so, And it's not really so much that state of mind as much as it just is. As we all know, Burrow's contract extension really kicks in starting next season goes I thinking cap percentage somewhere along the lines of from you know, twelve percent to seventeen percent going from next year to this year. And last year was only around eight so you know, obviously the cap goes up. Things change. We
don't have to worry too much about that. But I definitely think there's a sense that the time is not you know, I think there was that sense last year too, and obviously it got you know, Pig Skinnis interrupt this as I call it in the in the almanac this year because of the fact that Burrow was hurt and they had some problems, but mainly it was because of the fact we didn't get to see Joe at his full you know, greatness is I like to always point out with you, and you know, now is a season
where he can pick up where he left off before he got injured for good last year. And I think we're seeing, you know, the team realize that with t Higgins one more run, maybe you know some other players who we don't know about just yet, but you know, I think it's really more of the fact that they've drafted now, you know, so heavily on defense. In the last three years of their ten premium picks, eight have been on defense. It's it's almost like a combination of
a make or break and a transition year. It's time for those guys to kind of step forward and become the new core of the defense. The new core of the team really let the team win in somewhat different ways, rather than relying on the burrow and the passing attack all the time. Do kind of what Kansas City has proven they've been able to do over the last couple
of years. They re energized and reignited their defense with great drafting and didn't have to rely on Patrick Mahomes quite so much until the time came, you know, in the postseason when his greatness shown. I think that's a plan and a method of attack for the Bengals probably would want to use in the end too, win in a lot of different ways. And then when they have to have Joe come through, we know he's capable of doing so.
All right, So, as you pointed out, t Higgins is the most obvious star who could be gone at the end of the year. The market for Tea I think has been established by some of the other contracts that are out there. It's probably around twenty three million dollars a year. Jamar Chase is going to get Justin Jefferson's
money roughly thirty five million dollars a year. So, in your opinion, should they try to keep both of those guys at those prices or they are are they better off spending he's approximately twenty three mili on other positions?
Yeah? Well, I mean I think that decision's pretty much been made really that they're not going to resign Tee barring you know, unforeseen circumstances happening. You never really know. I mean, God forbid, Chase could get hurt and they feel like they need Higgins or me to you know, they can franchise tag him again for another year, potentially next year. So you know, nothing is obviously written in concrete.
But I think the overall vibe is a you can't pay two receivers enormous money, or if you can, you're really hamstringing your team in other areas, especially if you're also paying the quarterback huge money. That's that's now you're talking about an enormous percentage of your cap tied up in just three guys, and we've seen, especially with t you know, injuries are going to you know, play a
major factor. As part of the reason why his you know, sort of contract projection as you put it, around twenty three million ish is so low is mainly because he hasn't been able to stay on the field over the last year a year and a half. So, you know, I think they think to themselves wide receivers are much more replaceable than some other positions. We've seen that all through the league. It's not really a reflection on TEA. Kind of reminds me of where Aj Green was a
little bit in his first year with Burrow, Burrow's rookie year. Obviously, he and Green and t Higgins are different places in their respective careers, but it was sort of the same can you stay healthy? Are you worthy of a bigger contract right now? Where are you? He's sort of caught in between. It's in his best interest to have a big season this year. Obviously, that would help him in the market, it would help the Bengals greatly obviously, and
it might rethink and recalibrate the Bengals thinking too. But I think overall, they're probably more inclined to spend the money elsewhere, you know, eventually replace at other positions of need, which are going to have to do and spend more money to do so. And you know that's where a guy like Jermaine Burton, who they were happy to get in the third round this year, players are going to have an important role this season already as to show
themselves worthy of being replacements for Higgins. And if that's the case, then you know everybody will shake hands and move on. But I do think in their minds it's certainly leaning towards this is Te's final year in Cincinnati.
A perfect segue to asking you about the draft, because you read about this year's draft class for Cincinnati Magazine and called the picks solid but slightly risky in your view, was this the time to take big swings on players like Jermaine Burton, who had some maturity concerns and first round pick Marius Mims, who had some injury issues.
Yeah, I mean, you know, we say is at the time. It's sort of like if a guy who you think is as quality and as high level of potential as Amarius Mims is available to you where he was in the draft, you know, and there's always a good time
to do that. You know, it remains to be seen whether their evaluation is correct, but there's no question that he has the sort of pedigree and talent and overall physical presence that was worthy of a top ten pick, and they obviously got a much later than that, So you know, there's never a wrong time to do that theoretically. I mean, if they had been picking in the top ten and had their choice, would they have picked a
quote unquote safer guy there? Maybe, But you know, I think it's he was obviously the pick where they got him, and I don't think they thought of it as a particularly big risk. You know, we just look at it from a sort of background point of view. He had some injury problems at Georgie, didn't get a lot of playing time, so he's not the finished product. But you can't argue with his prospect. He's as high graded prospect as they've drafted on the offensive line in some time,
really so. And in terms of Burton, again, they were very comfortable with taking him where they did. Clearly I think they thought about taking him earlier than that. I think TJ. Houschmanzata was in their ears, saying take this guy, and they listened to TJ and how could you not? I mean, you know, Who'sh's Who'sh's magic when it comes
to that kind of stuff. And again, you know, they need a player of his caliber to step forward if they are going to replace t. Higgins next year and they need a you know, ideally a first round level player, and if they can get him in the third round, then yeah, that was that was turned into a great pick. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen obviously, but you know there's no oh, you know, we had to play it safe this year because of Burrows contract
kicking in or anything like that. I think the two are pretty mutually independent. You take the prospect, the best one where you can get him, and how he fits into your team, and looking ahead for this year and next in the year after potentially without thinking to yourself, oh, like you know, oh, with this big year for us in terms of getting to the super Bowl, we got to take our big swings on uh, you know, boomer Bus dish products. You know, for the most part, everybody
is a boomer Bus prospect. Really, I mean there's only a handful of guys you know are going to be really good players, like Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow. Everybody else you crossing your fingers a little bit, so I don't even really look at it that way. I thought they did a good job getting those guys where they did, and now you just hope that they can contribute, and the earlier the better.
Robert Weintraub is our guest. He writes about the Bengals for Cincinnati Magazine, and he has written the Bengals chapter and this year's FTN Football Almanac. The almanac projects win totals for every NFL team. The Bengals check in at nine point eight with a sixty percent chance of making the playoffs. Can you give us a reader's digest version of how that's calculated and what it means?
Well, as I have told you in the past, we play out the season and it's your favorite number one million times through with the doctor evil impressions in that sense. But yes, we played the season out humongous number of times, and that just counts for every potential variable, and you know, the better teams win more off in in that giant sample size. It's basically the way to look at it
in terms of the nine point eight number. That doesn't mean they're going to go ten and seven, you know, definitively, or nine to eight, however you want to look at it. It just gives you sort of a baseline approach to how good they are. And you know, the real place to look is in the margins in terms of percentages
of their seasons. You know, the Bengals for a long time kind of were more likely than not to win fewer than nine games, or really fewer than five games, and not really win twelve or more, which makes them what we call a super Bowl contender. This year, you know, twenty five percent of those seasons they win twelve plus games, putting them right into the super Bowl mix. Only I think four percent of the seasons that they win five or fewer games, which puts them near to the top
of the draft. And you saw last year, you know, we I think had the same conversation and I said, sort of idly, the only way that was going to happen where they finished at the top of the draft would be a Joe Burrow injury. Sure enough, Joe Burrow was her and they still won nine games, So I should tell you the level of the team is obviously much higher than just dependent on one player. They have a you know, a very good chance of being in
the mix for the Super Bowl. Whether or not they win the division, whether or not they win nine games, ten games, eleven games sort of not really important from the way we look at it in terms of those numbers. What is important is there a top flight contender in the AFC, and you know, barring again more injuries, it's a key players at key times. Really they should be right there in the mix.
The schedule could help them exceed nine point eight wins. The Almanac raided the Bengals schedule last year among the toughest in the publication's twenty year history. What do the numbers tell us this year, at least going into the season.
Yeah, I always have to remember, of course, it's a
projection and anything can happen, as we saw last year. Yeah, they had the eighth hardiest schedule of all time by our numbers, in terms of when we've been doing it since I think we recalculated all the way back to the nineties now, so you know, it's a long time to have the eighth hardest schedule and that was because of obviously the division was extremely difficult, plus the first place schedule came around, had a lot of tough games, and the Bengals actually had a top twelve ranking in
terms of our efficiency which is adjusted by opponents and the you know, their overall efficiency just as a baseline was a little bit above average, but then when it was adjusted because of their difficult schedule, it got much higher. And you know, we do the same thing as a projection for coming up this year with the last place schedule and the rotation and just in terms of you know, sort of the movement around the league, we project them
as having the twenty seventh hardest schedule in the league. Now, again that doesn't mean necessarily anything. Teams rise and fall the time. Look at the Houston Texans, everybody thought, y, oh, that's the automatic w last year, and of course they
turned out to be a really good team. And you know, that's written the same way throughout the week, but it is a sort of baseline to look at and think, Okay, they have a much better shot at least of having a few breathers in the schedule where they didn't have last year. And obviously that was compounded by the fact that they were playing without Burrow for a lot of
those games, et cetera. And the fact that Jake Browning did so well when he took over really helped their overall numbers in terms of efficiency and kind of helped their projection going forward this year. So that's a big part of it too. So kudos to Jake. I don't want to leave him out of this discussion to make it about Joe, but yeah, the schedule definitely on paper at least lightens up quite a bit, so hopefully that'll have a nice effect on the season overall.
How did Browning compare to Burrow? Keeping in mind last year that in the first four weeks of the season Burrow wasn't Burrow. It was just the five game stretch after that where he performed as were accustomed to seeing him perform.
Yeah, I mean, you know, we didn't necessarily the numbers don't take that into account. The fans do. We all saw it. He was not He was a shadow of Burrow. He wasn't the real Joe. I like to say so in that sense, you have to take the numbers with the grand salt. But the good numbers are the Jake Browning performed exceptionally well on a lot of advanced metrics and really kind of surprising to me that no team pushed harder to try and try him loose from Cincinnati.
I thought that, you know, a guy, granted small sample size, but we've seen it before, backup quarterbacks come in and have a good half and all of a sudden their desired commodities around the league, and that didn't happen so
much with Browning. Whether or not he just put it out there that he wanted to stay in Cincinnati and that was it, or there were other behind the scenes machinations I couldn't tell you, but you know, he obviously gives the Bengals a backup that they haven't had quality backup they haven't had in the Borough era or even you know, going back to John Kitnap maybe. So I mean, that's great to have. As we've seen around the league and not just in Cincinnati, having a second quarterback rather
than a backup quarterback is very important. I live in Atlanta and they put their entire drefts around that as we sell, so you know, it's it's a good thing to have. And he was very, very strong in our numbers Browning last year and above Burrow in certain areas as well. Again you know with the caveat that Burrow was only Burrow for about a month month and change last season.
All right, Robert, what are your biggest concerns and or question marks going into this season?
Well, I think it's the same as we were having last season, which was the defense has to step up. And again it goes back to those rookies and the younger players now that I've talked about, you know, stepping forward and becoming key members of the team. You know, it's sort of Bengals defense last year in particular, was unless Trey Hendrickson gets a pass rush, you know, they're getting gas for huge yardage, whether it's on the ground
or through the year. Uh, you know, the Bengals had the biggest difference in terms of our numbers when from between when they got pass pressure on a quarterback and between when they did not. In other words, if Henry Soon got a rush in or you know, one of the other guys less often, but mainly Hendrickson when he was around the quarterback, the defense was good. When he was not around the quarterback, it was good news for the offense, and they moved the ball pretty much at will.
Bengals were really near the bottom and forcing three and out. They were terrible in terms of outside the perimeter coverage. Teams threw deep on him. They were terrible in terms of tackling. I think they went from seventy six miss tackles in twenty twenty two to one hundred and twenty four last season. That's a pretty sizeable leap. Jermaine Pratt just not to single him out, because it was a team wide breakdown. It takes a village to be defense
that bad. But Pratt went from six miss tackles in an outstanding twenty twenty two last year, he missed seventeen. And I think we can all agree him and Logan Wilson took a bit of a step back last year. And the linebackers are a key element in your team sort of overall run defense and speed vibe, and the way they played in twenty two is a big reason the defense was good. Obviously, they played without you know,
their starting safeties from twenty two last year. That's a concern whether or not Geno Stone can lock down that deep third of the field and whether or not the young corners can step up. Does Dax Hill have a role? There's a lot of question marks around the team. Miles Murphy, how does he fit in? Do we, you know, get a real first round production out of him, even though he's not going to get necessarily the playing time that you would imagine for a guy picked in the first
round because of Sam Hubbard and Hendrickson's presence. So a lot of question marks. They have talent, though, I mean, and that's key, and they haven't established defensive coordinator who can make the most out of that talent. Who's probably I would imagine lou Anrumo anxious to put twenty twenty three behind him, get the team back to tackling the way they were the year before, and really just that.
I mean, if you can improve those tackling numbers even by half, you know that puts you much closer to the base one of the league, and your team looks a whole lot better. You get off the field on third a lot more, and you know you're you're not always playing behind the eight ball and worrying about the other team running the ball down in your throat. That was a big problem last year. We'll see if Chris Jenkins helps out at all. We'll see how Sheldon Rankins
helps out. Losing DJ Reader was a problem. But you know, it's not like Sheldon Rankins is not a good run defender. He's a very good run defender. He had basically the same run stopping numbers in our stats as Reader. There are different players, and Reader is more of a you know, giant in the middle who just gums up everything, whereas Rankings actually goes and makes the tackle. But you know
he can play very good run defense when asked. So I'm you know, I'm anxious to see how that works out, how the overall run defense steps up after a disastrous twenty twenty three and if they can make those changes. You know this, this guy's the limit for this defense. They've played really well in the past. It's just a question of getting back to that level.
Or with Robert in a moment. But first, a quick reminder that the Bengals Booth Podcast is brought to you by pay Corps, proud to be the Bengals official HR software provider, by Alta Fiber future Proof fiber Internet designed to elevate your home, business and community to a new level, and by Kettering Health the best care for the best fans. Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider of the Bengals.
I want to follow up on Trey Hendrickson. Miles Garrett was the NFL defensive Player of the year.
TJ.
Watt finished second. You point out in the Almanac this year that Trey Hendrickson had more pressures than either of those guys, which I wasn't aware of. Just how good is Trey Hendrickson.
Yeah, if you will get his numbers, not just last year, but over the last three years, even basically since Trey became Trey in Cincinnati, his numbers are right there with Garrett and TJ. Watt a little bit be slightly behind, a half step behind, but you know, certainly not to the point where as I say in the Almanac, you know, he has basically one one hundredth of the sort of national Q rating if you of Garrett and Watt. Now, part of that is because Garrett and would have made
sort of splash gear plays. They have more turnovers. Garrett obviously is a one man wrecking crew. We've seen it first hand all these years. It's terrible lot to Hendrickson. Slightly behind maybe in that respect respect, but he's been outstanding in terms of generating pressure on quarterbacks, and as I alluded to before, he's basically the one man who sort of sets the tone for the Bengals defense. If he's around the quarterback, the Bengals defense looks a heck
of a lot better. And when he's not on the field, you really notice it. So it's a big problem that they haven't really been able to generate rush outside of him for the most part, and his presence on the field a lot is key, and I think that you know, he has to play a few more snaps probably than is maybe warranted for his advancing years, and just in general at the length of the season, you'd like to get that third pass rusher, which is why Murphy again is so key, I think for this season to get
another player at least in the stratosphere of Hendrickson's ability to get near the quarterback. And as for you know, just in terms of why he doesn't get the you know, same pub as a Garrett or what part of it is because they're they're the Bengals and not the Browns and the Steelers who have you know, the huge national followings and certainly the Steelers, and you know, his personality is not just what the other two guys are. Perhaps
it's hard to really know for sure. The Bengals generally don't get those kind of, you know, sort of national love as other teams players do necessarily I'm here stumping for you, Trey, though I think you should. And he talk about great pass rushers. Pass rushers excuse me in the league really has to include Hendrickson because he's right up there and at the top. You know, more than just one year now, it's been a it's been a large sample size.
Robert Weintraub is our guest. He wrote the Bengals chapter in the FTN Football Almanac this year. There's some interesting data in the almanac about the age where players traditionally decline at each position, so it breaks it down by position, and for running backs, the age is twenty eight. Joe Mixons about to turn twenty eight. Did the Bengals act at the right time?
You know, it's amazing how the narrative has changed, because at this time two years ago, we were talking about is it time to move on from Joe Mixon. Feels like we've had this discussion for a while, and then they signed him and he played well, and then of course last year he took a pay cut to stay, and it was sort of a surprise that he did, and he responded with an excellent season. I have no doubt that he has football left in the tank, and we all love Joe, but that doesn't mean the time
wasn't right for him to go. He certainly is not an explosive back, and they were looking to up their explosiveness out of the backfield. I think there's no question about that. I don't know if it was necessarily just because he's turning twenty eight. I think in a couple of places they did what I call doing the Belichick, which is you get rid of a guy maybe a year earlier rather than a year too late. I think
you saw that with DJ Reader. Really that was a you know, sort of a fifty to fifty on defense decision, and sometimes it's better just to pull the cord. Now with Mixing, I think, you know, the handwriting was on the wall last year and it was sort of, you know, surprised that he came back and played so well and
he had an excellent season. Finally catching the ball on the backfield they used them the way we'd been us analyst types had been begging for the team to use him all these years, and he had an outstanding season catching the ball. The good news is Zach Moss, his nominal replacement, at least partially, had a very good season also catching the football, and we saw what Chase Brown can do in his limited snaps as a receiver. They
should be able to make that happen. It still feels to me like the Bengals are a little light in the running back room, and I mean that in a literal way. They could use sort of the extra poundage that they lose with mixing at twenty five. They don't really have a running back of that size or you know, Moss three for eleven inside the five yard line last year in terms of punching it into the end zone. Chase Brown no real history of that, but doesn't seem
like that kind of running back necessarily. You'd like to have a guy, as they were talking about last year, perhaps getting in Jamal Williams type frame back there and if he's cut, maybe he's available, or you know, a guy in the street, even like Kareem Hunt, who you know, we don't think of as having much left, but he was outstanding in short yardage situations last year, and we
know he can catch the football. Well, somebody like that just who you know isn't going to get a lion's share of the carries, obviously, but somebody who can improve your depth and in those specific short yardage situations where the Bengals were terrible last year in part because of the offensive line but also because of running back situations. I think they'd be well behooved to add to their mix. And I think, you know, a three headed monster is better than a two headed monster in this scenario.
Maybe some I JP Ryan gets cut.
That's possible. I mean, certainly he would be welcomed back with open arms. I tend to doubt it, just because he's such a good, heady player, a safety valve, very good receiver. We know he's good in pass protection. And then you have a rookie quarterback now in Denver. Presumably that's kind of a guy you'd like to have around a rookie and you know, just be a security blanket
of the backfield. So I'd be surprised, But stranger things have happened, and I'm sure that the Bengals will be circling around all the cuts who who you know, code down to the wire there and probably almost certainly will sign somebody else you know going forward.
I also just want to clarify that doing the Belichick does not refer to dating a much younger woman.
If you're correct, and you know, it doesn't mean that you appear at a roast all of a sudden for your ex quarterback and deal a sense of humor that you've had apparently tucked away for lo these many years. But there's many definitions of doing the Belichick. I chose the on field and the front office one, no question.
All right, let's talk about some of the other teams in the division. Baltimore is projected to win eleven point two games, Number one in the AFC, number two in the NFL behind San Francisco. I think the Ravens lost more good players and coaching talent than any other team in the NFL, But it doesn't seem to have had much impact on the FTN Football Almanac forecast.
Why not, Well, mainly because they were coming from such a high place to begin with. It's sort of like, you know, if you're on top of the Empire State Building or the Bursh Khalifa and you step down into an ordinary skyscraper all of a sudden, it's like, oh, what happened? But the truth is, you know, yes, I agree, they've lost a lot of players in a lot of depth, and it doesn't get much run. I feel like in
the national media, not yet anyway, were stir early. But you know, three fifths of their offensive line, and obviously they're highly talented defensive coordinator Geno Stone as we know in Love, etc. Et cetera, Odell Beckham who had sort of an underrated not necessarily statistical performance but just sort of the presence on the team last year. I thought he helped. But let's face it, they still have a
lot of really good players. They're really strong that spine of their defense with Mattibuike and Rokwan Smith and Kyle Hamilton his outstanding obviously got the MVP at quarterbacks, So that's a good place to start. And you know, there, we've seen it before. They've lost a lot of players and you sort of think other Ravers in or trouble, whether through free agency and trays and things like that, or just from injuries, and yet they still somehow managed
to have a good team. They have a great organization. As we know, they're really our chief rival. I think in a lot of ways, you know, not not emotionally necessarily, but just sort of realistically, and you know, underestimating them is something I've learned to do and not to do
anymore or at my peril. So you know, they're they're still very high, and you know that's kind of why you know, the projection system still loves where they're at, is because they were so good last year and they didn't have very far to fall and even you know, unless they lose Lamar or something like that, you know they're still going to be a handful in the AFC Overall.
In the question, the Browns have the third highest projected wind total in the division at nine point two. The Almanac describes Cleveland as having one of the best non quarterback rosters in the NFL. So let's talk about the quarterback. Deshaun Watson has played twelve games in two years in Cleveland. The traditional stats aren't goods past the ratings bad. He hasn't thrown many touchdown passes. What did the advanced stats say about Deshaun Watson's play when he's been available.
It's been bad. I mean, there's just no way, you know, around that. And I'm not saying it's a bad thing as a Bengal fan either. Yeah, I think you saw what they did last last year in Cleveland, though in large part was because they got want to they get Watson. He was hurt, you know, but they played almost the way they wanted to play without Watson in there, which is never a safe position. But because of the contract, they can't really admit that out loud, certainly and to themselves.
Maybe you know that the offense looked the way I think they wanted it to play much more with Joe Flacco than with Deshaun Watson. And you know they brought in Ken Dorsey as no offensive coordinator to sort of unleash, if you will, a deeper game that Flacco managed to get done. For Deshaun Watson, the question is is he capable of that? You know, first of all, coming off a shoulder surgery that's obviously going to have some effect.
It's hard to know what. And more to the point, he hasn't played like the quarterback that quote unquote Deshaun Watson is supposed to be in you know, a lifetime in terms of NFL the way of thinking. It's I can't even remember, you know what year was when I last went into a game thinking, Oh, Deshaun Watson's going to win this one by him. So, you know, the
Browns last year did a lot with mirrors. They had obviously an outstanding defense, and they finally sort of addressed the properts and a lot of those guys like Martin Emerson and the joker Ousu Carasmo and you know, various other players on their defense and really had an outstanding unit. But you know, their their offensive baseline, which we always think of with the Browns, their great offensive line wasn't
so great last year. And now they lose Bill Callahan, their all time great offensive line coach, who should have been in Cincinnati all these years. I'll never get over that either. But that's another side topic. So there's question marks there. You know, they kind of ran the football a little bit with mirrors last year, got some big plays,
but weren't very efficient about it. And of course now you don't know what you're gonna get with Watson, and I think they showed their hand by ruy loading up in terms of backups in Cleveland, they have now four guys who could realistically play, not Joe Flacco. So yeah, they're a real question mark for me. They had a good projection because they had a very good season last year and it's not like they lost obvious players aside
from Bill Callahan. You know, you know, look at their roster and think, oh, it's going to get substantially worse. But of course, as we know, the quarterback is the main you know pull on your entire team, and I don't think they can count on that, and I don't think anybody watching them should count on that until you see it out of Deshaun Watson.
And finally we get to the Steelers. They have the lowest projected win total at seven point four. Don't you number crunchers know that a Mike Tomlin coach team is going to find a way to win at least nine games.
Yeah, we've got to figure that into the algorithm. Somehow. Surpise that Mike hasn't shown up at the offices and just you know, started smashing things and talking, you know, one of his great pep talks and said we're winning, We're going nine to eight. I don't care what we have to do or what the numbers say. It is true they somehow managed to pull that winning record out of their posterior seemingly every year without particular reason for it. I mean, it's not like they don't have good players.
And I think a large part this year the projection system is looking at the course their quarterback situation and thinking to themselves, well, you got you replaced one or two or three bad quarterbacks with one or two or x bad quarterbacks, and what's going to change? And you know, the projection last year they obviously exceeded, but that doesn't mean that we should project them to do that again. You know, like you say, they always find a way.
So perhaps that's just you know, the numbers not really taking reality into account. But it's hard to take that kind of magic into account when you look at their team. Now, it's possible that either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields find some sort of magic out of nowhere and blend with Arthur Smith. They're a new offensive coordinator and obviously Tomlin
and they're better than we think. But it's going to be very hard for you know, again the projection ships and these to see it before they believe it, especially with quarterbacks who have had you know, several poor seasons in a row and ancholytically like Wilson and fields. So despite you know, having players like t. J. Watt on the field and Jalen Warren and all their other good players, and you know, they have a decent roster. It's not
like they're a bad team. We know that firsthand. But just looking at their projection, it's hard to see them again doing anything until the quarterbacks prove that they can do it one or the other. Sort of the same situation with the Browns were in. They're just kind of the Browns writ a little bit less talented. Really, the Browns have a little bit more of a steadier defense than last year than the Steelers did and the more
of a reliable kind of way to win games. The Steelers, you know, as we know, seem to you know, find these miracle ways of pulling w's out of nowhere, and it's not sustainable and not something the projection system likes to see. So that's that's why they're ready to low. But again, you know, I don't think any any Bengal fans taking the Steelers and looking at them and scalping and not worrying when we play them, that's for sure.
We have about three minutes left in our zoom call time for one more topic. I was excited to see the latest two entries in the NYC one thousand in my inbox today. For those who are not familiar with this incredible project that you have undertaken, explain the NYC one thousand.
It's hard to believe I'm still alive, but I am, and about two hundred entries into it, we're getting down totter number eight hundred. Now I am counting down ranking the top one thousand sporting events in New York City history. I am in New Yorker. You are too, although you're more state than city. But yes, it's kind of a side project that I do on my sub stack, the NYC one thousand. Just google that or winehrap r dot substack dot com and you can see where I've gone through.
The conceit is. It has to have happened in New York proper, the footprint there, So you know, a Super Bowl that the Giants played in Miami does not count as long as that happened in New York. And of course that goes through you know, over a century and a half now almost of not just sporting events, but really the history of New York, the history of the country. So much has happened there that relates to how, you know,
sports and the culture have really grown together. It's really interesting to see when you go back and look at things like a match from the eighties between Martine and Navatarova and Steppie Garoff, how enormous and how epical that seemed to the time, and yet you know now it's like, oh, yeah, we've moved on. Who were those two? You know? But I like to relive the fact that these were two
enormous sporting figures. And obviously that doesn't even take into account all the great athletes and all the great sporting events, not to mention teams that have taken place in New York, really the heart of the sporting city and the cultural capital of the world, one would argue. So anyway, that's what I've been doing on the side for the last couple of years, and keep on keeping on until we
get to number one. Hopefully I'll still be alive. This project won't kill me or other outside forces will keep me going, and we'll find the countdown, and then I'll start in on the Cincinnati two to fifty or whatever you think the proper number is, Dan, and we'll go from there.
I love it well. You mentioned Martine and Stephanie. They are the subject of the most recent entry, number eight thirteen. You're writing about their match in nineteen eighty six was so entertaining that I watched a chunk of the match on YouTube. So you do a great job with the NYC one thousand and for the FTN Football Almanac, the Bengals chapter is great. Robert, always appreciate your time. Thanks so much for joining us, and keep up the great work.
Thanks so much, Dan, The pleasure is always mine.
You don't have to be a New Yorker to enjoy Robert's list of the top one thousand sporting events in the New York City area. Is writing is the fun part. If you're interested in checking it out, just search for
NYC one thousand sub stack. That's going to do it for this episode of the Bengals Booth podcast, brought to you by pay Core, Proud to be the Bengals official HR software provider by Alta Fiber future proof fiber Internet designed to elevate your home, business and community to a new level and by Kettering Health the best care for the best fans. Kettering Health is the official healthcare provider
of the Bengals. If you haven't done so already, please subscribe to this podcast and if you have a minute, give it a rating or share a comment that helps more Bengals fans find us. I'm Dan Hord and thanks for listening to the Bengals Booth podcast.