It Could Happen Here Weekly 137

those stories have been told so far. My focus is really on the African diaspora in the Caribbean today and what strategies they used in their struggle and how those strategies could potentially be utilized today in our contemporary struggle.

So for some context, in case you know you just arrived on Earth a couple couple of years ago, enslaved Africans suffered truly deplorable conditions from the moment of capture, through the passage and the season in process, and to the last of their days on the field of the plantation. Yet in spite of the deplorable conditions enslaved people endured, resistance endured. It was both inevitable and constant, as even their enslavers recognized. Resistance, of course, began in Africa itself.

Enslaved people often fled to escape local captors who were seeking to profit from the demand for slaves. Entire villages would sometimes relocate to fortify their settlements to avoid capture. Veellion was common among captives as they weighted to board

ships during the initial loading and even on the high seas. Tragically, perhaps bravely, some choose to resist by taking their own lives, either during the journey or during the brutal season in process upon their arrival in the Caribbean on the plantation itself. Resistance took many forms, tailored to specific circumstances and opportunities, but acts of defiance were a constant throughout the history of slavery in the Caribbean.

and COVID methods to protest against oppressive conditions. Confrontation is about direct and assertive engagement with oppressive forces, aiming to disrupt or undermine them. And prefiguration refuses a deliberate organization of future social relations, institutions, and practices in the present,

envisioning and enacting a better future. It's important to note that these categories, of course, often overlap into dynamics struggle against slavery, non cooperation, confrontation, prefiguration intertwined, embodying.

the plantation. Arson was another method used to strike back against their pressors, causing significant damage to property and resources.

alternative way of life within the oppressive system. These escapes were not just about physical freedom. They were acts of defiance. They challenged the fundations of the plantation system. Modern day activists and workers often engage in so forms of non

cooperation to challenge capitalist structures and state authority. Just as in slave people would intentionally slow down or damage tools to reduce productivity, modern workers might engage in slow downs, work to rule actions, or even deliberate sabotage, which also falls into the next category of action. These actions aim to disrupt efficiency and profitability of capitalist enterprises, often as a form of protest against unfair labor practices or to

demand better working conditions. Pretended ignorance was, as I mentioned, a common tactic among enslave people to avoid the harsh demands of plantation labor. We might look at the quiet quittin folks who do the bare minimum required for their job, refusing to go above and beyond in order to avoid burnout and to resist the expectations that seek to exploit them.

Running away from plantations despite these fair consequences was a powerful form of non cooperation that of course sought to reclaim autonomy in modern times, though not equal valent strikes and walkouts silver similar purpose. Workers leave their positions to protest unfair conditions, risk and financial stability to demand systemic change. In the Plantation era, acts of confrontation involved direct assaults

on the system itself. Like I said before, the plant has lived in constant fear of revolt, and this fear was especially heightened during the Christmas season. What seemed like benign dances and festivities often disguised rebel oaths of secrecy. Poisoning was another faired form of confrontation, a subtle yet deadly alternative to open rebellion. The mere threat of conspiracies and plots, whether real or imagined, kept the colonial regime

perpetually on edge. Colonial legal systems were primarily designed to manage colonial property, which included enslaved people. These laws were harsh and allowed for severe punishments for any perceived transgressions. Enslaved individuals could face proof consequences for unauthorized movement, large gatherings, possessions of weapons, or practicing secret rituals. Master The art of subterfuge was thus crucial for survival. What does that

tell us about navigating our current legal context? While planters tried to soy scored among the enslaved by facilitating ethnic division by separating African born from Korean born, from dividing domestic and field laborers as put in skilled and unskilled workers, they stay people too about manipulated plantation politics. They carefully studied the personalities of their wide overlords, subtly provoking divisions

between bookkeepers, overseers, and owners. A Nanci the Spider Trickster, a popular West African folk tale character, became a hero, inspiring strategies of disguised satire, trickery, and deceit. Yet despite their cunning, many rebellions were quashed before they could even begin, and those that did spark were often brutally suppressed. The divisions fostered by the planter class between Creole and African

and slaved people hindered revolutionary efforts. While all revolts sought greater power and freedom, Africans typically desired all out war and the establishment of an African lifestyle apart from the colonies. In contrast, many Creoles the Caribbean born Africans aimed to modify the system to gain the rights of free wage laborers. Such conflicts helped foil revolts in barbaeos in sixty, maybe three Anti Guns seventeen thirty six, Saint quix In seventeen

fifty nine, and Jamaican in seventeen seventy six. What does that tell us about the risk of unresolved divisions when undertaken revolutionary action today. In the past, enslaved people used secret meetings and COVID planning to organize revolts, often disguised as social gatherings. Today activists can use in encrypto communication

or parties as staging grounds of political activism. Today, poisoning maybe off the table, but its evident that property destruction, including our sun, has persisted as a means of protest. The efficacy of that method protest is perhaps situationally dependent, but it certainly sends a message. Activists of today must confront legal systems, just as since slave people in the past needed to when descent is shaped against the statuscope. There's a time and place for court battles and bail funds,

but they are not lasting means of resistance. We do need to brainstorm more permanent means of liberation from this legal system. Finally, just as a NANSI, this FIA trixter issued as a symbol of clever resistance among the enslaved. We need stories and symbols that can just as potently in power. There's a time when Guy Fowk's masks served

as a powerful symbol of resistance. As a creative species are symbolic, species will always need those signals to guide and encourage us, to give us safety in numbers, in a sense of solidarity, even if such symbols alone are not inherently liberatory. Finally, acts of prefiguration may seem less

viable under their grim conditions. But even if they could not build the socio economic autonomy that characterizes robust modern prefigurative practices, enslaved people still managed to create networks of support and resilient cultures that offered respite in a world that sought to strip them of their humanity. Mutual aid was truly the name of the game in the face of social death. They cultivated ties of real and fictive kinship.

Since biological families were often torn apart by callous slaveholders, with mother child units being the most common familiar arrangement, many and slaved Africans extended their concept of family beyond biological kin These networks of fictive kinship provided emotional support, protection, and a sense of belonging, helping to preserve their humanity in the midst of suffering. An example of this resilience can be seen in the rotating savings and credit associations

that developed among enslaved women. Despite their marginal earnings from market activities, they pool their resources and rotated lump sums of money to each other in acts of mutual aid, all without their master's permission. This practice not only provided financial support, but also reinforce the bonds.

within LGBTQ plus communities and other marginalized groups. Today, grassroots organizations and cooperatives continue the tradition of economic cooperation, impowerant marginalized groups to economic solidarity, microfinance initiatives, and community based lending. It's important that we don't look at these in isolation. Confrontation alone is not enough, non cooperation alone is not enough, and of course prefiguration alone.

were inherently non cooperative. As warriors, they directly confronted plantation society, and as community builders they aim to prefigure a better future for themselves and their descendants. Maroon societies varied widely, shaped by local geography, available resources, and their relationship with

colonial powers. They thrived in rainforests and mountainous terrains, which offered natural defenses and facilitated guerrilla warfare tactics Led by captains charged with defense, Maroon settlements prioritized vigilance, fortification, and constant readiness. They communicated with neighboring communities, practiced evasive maneuvers,

and engaged in both defensive and offensive strategies. Prior to the Haitian Revolution, Francois Macandial and his network of enslaved and Maroon allies struck fear into the heart of Saintomique. They targeted plantation owners with acts of sabotage and arson, challenging colonial authority with daring raids and strategic strikes. Beyond warfare, Maroon communities were self sufficient, producing or acquiring what they

needed through raids, trade, or cultivation. The trader with pirates, merchants, and other Maroon settlements across islands, while hunting, fishing, and farming for sustenance. Yet their precarious existence often necessitated careful population management. Some communities struggled with maintaining numbers, while others cautiously accepted new recruits, balancing growth with the risk of attracting clonial attention.

fellow escaped slaves. While many Maroon communities ultimately succumbed to colonial pressure or were unable to remain hidden, some notably in Jamaican Surnam inture to this day, regardless of their fate, all Maroon communities defied the clonial order, asserting the independence and capability even slaved Africans to conceive and pursue freedom. What lessons can we take from their struggle? How can

we apply their strategy in our resistance today? The struggle of the Maroons offers us some useful lessons, in my opinion, when they succeeded, it was through strong community ties and solidarity. They built networks of support and cooperation that were crucial for survival. Today, we need to be fostering unity among diverse groups facing systemic oppressure. Building alliances across different communities strengthens our collective power and our resilience against common adversaries.

Another lesson we can glean is that the Maroons adapt to their strategies to the local terrain and resources available. Similarly, modern resistance movements can benefit from strategic adaptation to current

socio political landscapes. This includes utilizing technology for communication an organization understand the media and digital as well as the physical landscape, as well as adapt in tactics to fit specific context, because not every tactic is going to make sense in every situation, and we can't be going through the emotions. Also, as the Maroon communities sort of establish self sufficiency as much as possible in their struggle, they cannot adequately resist if they were still fully or mostly

dependent on the beasts they were fighting. They needed to be producing their own food, goods and resources. Otherwise any all our confrontation would be suicidally premature. We as movements, need to prioritize building sustainable practices and self reliant economies to reduce our alliance and oppressive systems. We cannot confront these systems if we are still dependent on them. We will not succeed. If so, the Maroons were also flexible.

They shifted between defensive and offensive strategies as their circumstances demanded. Movements can benefit from maintaining that kind of flexibility in tactics. We cannot be all offensive, we cannot be all defensive. We must strike a balance. Finally, though this is projection on my part, I believe some of the Maroons would have had long term vision despite their immediate challenges. I believe they maintained a long term vision of freedom and

autonomy that sustain their resistance over generations. Contemporary movements can benefit from a similar long term perspective, recognizing that meaningful change often requires sustained effort and commitment across time. That's all I have for today, All power to all the people. You can follow me on YouTube at androism and on patreon dot com slash Same Truth.

you don't get a public defender assigned to you. Right, So can you explain someone Let's say someone comes through the hole in the fence in Kumbo, right, they get detained at the o EDS, We give them a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, and then they get taken out processed. What happens after that? So from when they come to three, what said in terms of their legal representation? How does it work?

border patrol, but by ICE. The fortunate situation, I mean, sorry, the lining, the silver lining of this, you know, entire awful situation is that there's so many people coming that there's not enough detention space to detain everybody, and so hence the street releases. So the people can then go directly to their family. They will go with a notice to a peer which starts their immigration court proceedings, which

was issued by Border Patrol. So immediately they have to navigate the immigration court system, starting with the fact that the notice to a peer might have a false date on it as far as their court date. So that's the first it's the first issue.

The reason they weren't is because they didn't want to take the time to coordinate with the courts to make sure that there's actually a judge on that date and time that they assign, so to satisfy the legal requirements that we've pushed for, they often will just put a fake date and time, So, in other words, they haven't done anything to verify whether there's actually a judge sitting at some court that day or time to hear their case.

the need for an attorney arises immediately. And often immigrants have been robbed, they've paid all their money to transnational immigration to criminal organizations, excuse me, so, and an asylum case is costly, so they have a right to an attorney, as you said, but only at their own expense. So this is a tremendous challenge off the bat, as you can imagine.

I mean, like I said, it's difficult for us. I mean, let's just say I got a work permit with somebody else's photo on it the other day, so you know, so it's a total mess. And to have an immigrant and even navigate that process is it just seems impossible.

the detention. I have a few black clients right now in detention, and if they were white, I'm absolutely convinced they are not even white but Latino, they would have been released already. And one of them is a black Muslim man from Kenya and he's been called a suspected terrorist by ICE for six months or more that he's been into detention with zero proof whatsoever, and so they'll just hold them for that reason because he's a black

Muslim man. So these are often people with very meritorious cases, like for example, this man was an opposition party leader and recruiter back in Kenya. So these people just need I mean, whether they win or not win their case or not, can hinge on just being able to get representation, you know, because he's very intelligent and probably would have been able to put together a good case on his behalf. But the stats about people winning cases detained without attorneys

is very very low. So yeah, so then they have to work with a family member on the outside obviously to get a hold of an attorney. Not a lot of attorneys or all attorneys do detained work because it is so difficult to start with, I mean, access to your client is just so limited, and getting evidence, I mean, they have to have a reliable family and support network on the outside essentially to help them get evidence from their home country. I mean, how else do you do that?

Detained and so it's a lot of work coordinating as an attorney and so forth. So San Diego County saw that need and actually started a great program. I'm not exactly sure when it's starts arted, but apparently they weren't getting enough applicants and maybe it's been around for a

little bit, but they didn't know about it. And it's they set aside like five million dollars to specifically pay attorneys to represent people detained an O time ASIE, which is of course the big ice attention center in San Diego. So that caused there to be more attorneys, you know, or more or slightly more represented people at O time ASIE,

which was great. Yeah, because typically when I go in there, you know, this is just anecdotal evidence, you'll see a handful of attorneys, maybe a couple, maybe at most like five, and then you see all the detainees the immigrants sitting there, and there's clearly more than there are attorneys. So you know, I read a stat by the ALU that it's like something like seventy percent as of twenty twenty one did not have attorneys and detention centers.

right now is the wrongful death suits and payouts. So literally the business model is to allow people to die detained as a cost of business rather than give them proper medical care or take them to the hospital and so forth. And they will pay out and they do pay out millions to families. And I've seen this in action, not that any of my clients died, but just the the gravity to which the health situation has to be in order to have a prayer of getting them out.

of you. So these people need and deserve our presentation, and like I said, are often detained unjustly and have strong cases that they could actually win. So basically these people deserve representation and need it the most. I mean, they're basically the most marginalized out of any immigrant there is.

So for ICE to suddenly start transferring mass transferring, I might add, represented detainees when they never have in the past and they haven't their own memo from twenty twelve that says they shouldn't do this except for exigent circumstances, you know, like some and they describe it as some medical issue or something severe that requires it. It's just it's pretty obvious that this is just direct retaliation or just designed to get attorneys out of O Tai, because

there's been more of them in there. And we tend to make a stink and we tend to we tend to ask, hey, why haven't you given a decision on my client's requests to be really east and what's going on here? And we tend to send a lot of emails advocating for our clients, and we tend to be pains in the asses. And before this happened, I noticed that ICE was just not responding at all, whereas I had some relationship with the ICE agents that are at

the detention center. Just to back up, every client is assigned to a deportation officer, so you technically have somebody from ICE to communicate with, and they're supposed to be in charge of the person detained, you know, whether they're released or whether the treatment like any they're their point of contact. And so even under the Trump years, you'd be able to Yeah, you might have to follow up, but you'd be able to communicate with a couple of

them or some of them would do you know. And so I noticed in the past year or two that this is has just been kind of this scorched earth approach where they just won't.

back on this, as well as the county program. There's more attorneys at O Tai Mesa now and so I mean essentially what happens is if the person is transferred, which they've all been transferred to places like I think Colorado is probably the best option, but generally like Louisiana, Mississippi, things like that. Texas is where my clients are currently.

So these are places where you can imagine there's a not a lot of quality immigration attorneys and b not a high chance of winning your case given the nature of the judges that are there.

and thank god he has a strong case. But even then, I wonder, because that's it's I mean, if it's well known amongst migrants, you can imagine how badissy.

So they and this is also by design, right, they put all these attention centers in the middle of nowhere because God forbid, the public sees that people seeking asylum are in prisons. So anyways, so both of us are

going to be remote if that's the case. So, I mean, I think there needs to be some personal contact and maybe if I can have some communication with the DHS council, I have to go to El Paso to give my clients the best chance of something, you know, otherwise we're both faces on this video with a with a fifth circuit judge, you know. So the other the flip side of the coin was that I have another client who was transferred and his trial is literally around the corner.

It's next week. So yeah, he was transferred four weeks before as individual hearings. So I filed something scathing, saying, judge, please don't consider changing venue. This is you know, yeah, he's been detained long enough. He's a twenty one year old by the way.

That's very hard to do on a video because you're looking for body language. You're looking for subtle things, you know. And also it's just like the human aspect of it is very important.

it means to to actually represent clients. At the the person's final court hearing, they are asked to swear to the contents of not only their asylum application, but also all evidence they filed. And so if how on earth can you show them and sit with them to show them the evidence in person? You know that you can only do and personally. So it's just this whole concept that you can that you can even adequately lawyer remotely or over the phone. It's it's just it's not possible.

They've been through so much and now they have to talk about all of it in front of this American judge and a robe from a prison. Yeah, and I have to be their only ally is not even with them.

can't be used, you know. I mean, so, yeah, there's so many things that go into representing somebody who's detained, and I just knows all of this full well. So this is a very deliberate choice, and it's something we haven't seen before, like ever. I mean, everybody's pretty shocked by this.

they liked to do that too. I've noticed over holiday weekends because last year they were trying to deport a couple of my clients even though they had things pending, and they try to do it over the weekend and so on purpose, right, and so the client's families would call and be like, hey, he's being printed, like processed for being deported, and so we immediately Yeah, I had to do this twice a year ago, so I had to send two emails based documenting and ceasing the ICE

attorney being like hy, they have a pending XYZ case. It is unlawful to stop what you're doing immediately. But like, had we not been notified over the weekend and sent that email, they would have been deported despite having a k So this is the type of stuff that regularly happens. But it's very ballsy to me to transfer, Like I think it was probably like one hundred people or hundreds or something, you know, I mean over a Memorial Day weekend,

you know. And of course, oh, their memo, by the way, also says they're supposed to notify the attorneys, you know. I mean, I heard from frantic family members who are like, why the fuck am I getting a call from ants in Texas?

at Antsen. Yeah, and so I had arranged a egal call it the first attach a facility and then had to like do it all, do this process all over again, and they ask you for everything but like your DNA in order to prove that you're their attorney, you know, to get this legal call. I mean, I spent two weeks just trying to figure out where my client was and these are two. Imagine this is sucked up like

all my time since Memorial Day. I mean, there's other clients, you know, I've I've been struggling to get to their cases. Like thankfully I haven't had too many deadlines, but I mean it's it's been brutal.

not the very recent one on role in place. People have seen that, but it's one quote unquote closing the border. Can you explain, we haven't really seen that impact on the ground yet, but can you explain, these people are supposed to get essentially a document forbidding them from reentering for five years.

worst document. So it is an expedited removal which is a fancy term for a deportation order that when issued by Border Patrol CBP, carries with it a five year bar, and so that means you're not admissible in any way, shape or form to the United States, and if you try to re enter during that time period or even at any time irregularly, you will then be put in what's called withholding only proceedings, and that essentially means you were no longer eligible for anything, not even asylum, just

a very very difficult form of asylum, which is called withholding or protection of the Convention. It's torture, which is also very difficult to win. So that those are the two things you're stuck fighting. And then you are also mandatory attention, so there's no possibility of you getting out unless you're in your case, which is of course very

very difficult. So can I haven't seen this play out, you know, like we're saying, it's it's relatively new, and yeah, but I can imagine based on my experience and based on what all of us know, that like, people aren't gonna have any idea what this is, and they're gonna and plus there's desperation and other fact. I mean, they just came to the dairy end. They're not gonna let

a piece of paper stop them, you know. So, I mean, so these people are probably going to turn around and try again and end up being in this withholding only posture, which means they're now really screwed in terms of having a way difficult time winning any sort of relief and definitely detained, like they will not be released. I've had clients on occasion like every blue moon be released, but the way I is acting these days, I don't think

it'll happen. So one of the thoughts I had is is this justifying additional detention centers if we're now having going to have probably more of those types of people, But its just in general, I don't see there being a shortage of people they can detain, So I think.

putting them in more peril. So it really behooves us to find all the different grassroots organizations, and there's there's so many of them that we can help and donate involundar teer our time too, because that's literally all these people have.

You carried the Chinese exactly. Yeah, Yeah, it was so beautiful, right, Yeah, it was such a wonderful Like obviously it's pretty bleak that the guys aren't able to use one of his legs properly, and yeah, therefore two people who don't share a single word with him had to carry him. These two Mauritanian men met. I'll just rewind to tell the

whole story. Yeah, we were driving down the road and we kept meeting groups of Mauritanian refugees coming north, and we were able to help them by giving them water in quick interruption.

you'll see him. So we keep going down the road and we come around the corner and there's two guys sort of eat and then a third guy in the middle of them with his hands over both their shoulders, right, and they're sort of humping him down the road. And it turns out this Chinese man only speaking Mandarin, he had like a brace, like an external fixation on his leg,

like like bolts through his leg and couldn't walk. And these dudes have been carrying him for two days and they couldn't she speak the same language like they didn't. They weren't able to communicate, and it was the most humane thing, and it made me just so ashamed that like these people, in a time of desperation for themselves, have taken the risk to help other people, and then here's our government just being like, screw you. If you don't belong here, we're going to put you straight in prison.

Or especially these these are mostly Muslim African men from Mauritania right there. They're generally sort of that that will be one of the more persecuted demographics. And perhaps you can talk about like how you got into participating in water drops and how other people could do so, or any any form of a direct mutual aid I supposed to says like advocacy.

don't don't feel defeated and think that. Remember that if you have twenty extra bucks a month to spare, for example, like if you donate that to supplies for migrants, then that literally allows the work of water dropping to continue. And you know, that's the other side of the coin. If we can go out all we want, but if we don't have money or supplies to drop, then nothing gets done, you know. So if you live in any part of the country, really you can find a reputable organization,

you know, or BRC is a collective. I volunteer with Borderlands Relief Collective and every cent goes directly to the supplies that we drop, and that's a very it's huge tangible source of help. All of our supplies are consumed, as you know, within a week or so, we think, you know. So it's just there's so many different ways to to participate. There's organizations that allow you to talk to detained immigrants, you know, like Freedom for Immigrants or

you know, there's different ways you can help. If you want to communicate with them. There's also detention Resistance, who works with the people mainly in No Taimesa to help just provide even a source of support, just someone a human being to talk to, who can help them with little things like writing letters or putting money in their

account to be able to contact family members. I say little things, but those things are huge because if you can imagine being an immigrant in another country and you know somebody in that and you're in a prison, but somebody in that country or a few people are are

showing you love. I think at the end of the day, whether you're officially deported or when asylum or whatever, those are the things that stick with people because I know that they're going to remember that probably for the rest of their lives.

So it's just, you know, unfortunate. So to have to interact with them and in a prison is just you know, it's just it's just ridiculous, you know. But so that's why those welcome tables are I think so just pure and precious because at that moment there's no bullshit involved yet, there's no US government. It's just humans interacting with humans.

you can find if you're good at googling things. It's on YouTube. It's the Allied Community Arts Brigade. UCLA hosted the panel, so if you if you search that and border panel, I'm sure you'll find it. And if you want to know more about the Sidewalk School. I recommend it, and we're joined there by people from Border Kindness and Alotlado, which are both excellent organizations working on the border here.

But the Sidewalk School are working with refugees and assigum seekers on both sides of the border in Matamoros and by Alsa so in Texas area, and they definately need your money. If you would like to support them, you can go to gofund dot me slash zero six CDOC seventy six and we'll include that in the notes of this podcast as well. Kasin, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it.

are firing live ammo into crowds of protesters. They've killed at least five people today. That numbers expected to rise as more protesters die in hospitals. The government has deployed the army and shut down much of the internet in an attempt to stop news from getting out. On Kenyan TV, political leaders called the protesters criminals and a threat to

national security. Meanwhile, protesters made good on their slogan occupied Parliament by storming and then partially burning down the parliament building. As politicians continue to meet their demands with bullets. What we've seen today is terrifying cops shooting live AMMO into churches, cops opening fire on people waiting for medical care. Meanwhile, to the fury of the protesters, Kenyan troops arrived today in Haiti to begin the US backed occupation of the country.

We spent this interview largely discussing the local Kenyan political leads, but this is also an international crisis. Much of the impetus for the brutal tax increases on basic goods came from an international monetary FUM bailout deal that required Kenya to increase its taxes to twenty five percent of the country's GDP. Thus Kenyans are being robbed twice, once by the Kenyan political masters of the cops shooting them in the streets, and again by the IMF and their neolibal

wealth extraction program. As the struggle continues. Let us now turn to our interview into a more optimistic time and movement to get a real understanding of what the protests are about. Welcome to it could happen here a podcast

where the here is currently Kenya. Yeah, I'm your host Miya Wong, and we're we're going to talk about a bunch of protests and a bunch of very very very interesting sort of political developments at Kenya that I think have gotten very distressingly little coverage in the sort of

like Anglophone maation media. And with me to talk about that is Justine Wanda's a stand up comedian, a political satirist, and a writer who's created Fake Book with Justine about well basically all the stuff that we're going to be talking about today are there are things you will see on this show. Justine. Welcome to the show.

areas because most people have their own personal phones. The issue is usually the urban centers where housing is actually very expensive and it's it's very poorly infrastructured, like there's no water, sometimes there's no electricity in certain parts, like people have done a lot of illegal collection connections. So last year the bill was kind of rummed through and

there was so much public participation. Actually in the beginning that was like a lot of people got angry about the bill forcing people to take money out of their pockets to contribute to a fund that didn't seem like they had a plan. And a lot of politicians were actually on TV and everyone was watching every interview and they're like, you don't make any sense, we don't understand. Yeah, it's like, what is that money for? We're not sure, but we know we're to building houses. How are you

going to manage the money? Who's going to be in charge of the money. How is this? Like every single aspect was met by like some form of deflection or like a lie, just like a lot of there wasn't any accountability in the in what they were telling us. And even the person who was in charge was like on TV, he was sweating. He looked like he was lying though who wrote time. So everyone was like, if this is how you're speaking about it when we aren't

giving out money, what will happen after the fact. But the bill sailed through and one of the elements that was in that field that wasn't even in the news was that avocado farmers in the country will start with charging us will be charged a certain amount of money on their produce and they have to produce receipts on

this every single day. What like if yes, if you sell like an avocado, one avocado or of avocados, you have to do a breakdown of like your sales and like provide receipts to the government and then like you're charged for it. Oh my god, and yes, and the MPs this like earlier this year, were like when the bill usually like sometimes it takes a while for the closest to come into effect. It takes like maybe a

couple of months. So the amoungst their farmers were supposed to get charged was supposed to go live on sorry in February or something. So in February, farmers are getting attacked by like the Kenure Revenue Authority. They're being told you need to provide these receipts and everything, and everyone is like, I don't understand because we weren't informed. And then the politicians who did not read the bill but first it were like, oh, we didn't read the document.

It was too big what yes, exactly, So like that kind of information was what that was what was on the news just before they introduced now the financial twenty four So it's like, we know you didn't read the one from last year, you passed a bunch of bill, is that you didn't understand the impact of it in the long term, So why would should you? Why should

Kenyans trust you with this new one? And then they were like, no, we have the best economic interests that had And then everyone was like, but the billy passed last year to increase revenue didn't work. So if it didn't work, what makes you think having a bunch of new taxes they're going to work. And they couldn't answer that.

And now this finance built entertain wants to introduce much of your call tax, where if you own a car, you will pay like a certain amount like I think two percent that's of the voliation of your car, and you paid to your insurance company every single year.

On top of the insurance you pay for your car, you pay the motor vehicle tax as part of that. And I'm like, that's ridiculous. We don't trust our money on any given day. Why would you think we would just to suddenly with the branch of money being granted by a private from somewhere because they're not going to show us their books.

those economic shocks can be felt. A lot of people are closing down their businesses. A lot of people are downsizing, which means it's less people employed. Even the beauty industry, which is mostly like random inputs, because they're chudgling so much input duty, the beauty industry can't even stand on its own, so people are not just buying less makeup. It's like people who are those stores and any of

those kinds of basay. This is can't even have the like the person who comes to get the job days. It becomes a bit of a problem. So everyone is like, if you're going to charge us more, you have to have an infrastructure that works for us.

Kenyans space, especially with sensitive issues. So our our third president, his name was Mikey Baki, was the first one of the first presidents in the world to remove v ty on sanitary towers. Like he was seen as like someone who's setting an example for so many people. And then the fact that this is happening when this country was seen as like a chin setter to like not just African countries but other countries around the world when it comes to like very important goods, it was felt like

going backwards, and not in a way. It's not like we didn't have an example to follow. We actually did have a set precedent on like how an economy is supposed to work. So everyone who's grown up in these particular environments where they felt safe and protected by the government and like the government taking they live on very important issues was like, you can't say building Kenya, buying

Kenya is a top priority for you. And even electricity costs are expensive, yeah, because even this will adds like a fewel levy tax it's going up by seven shillings, which is way too expensive. So you pay for your fuel, but like most of the charges on the fuel is just the levees and taxes and they're adding a little bit more year.

They want to find a way for taxpayers to pay for part of the taxes that are being added so that they don't have to lose money. Yeah, and every yeah, everyone is like, we know your budgeting for corruption. We can see you, we can see still, we can see you still, and we don't want to be part of that. And now to them it was like we're being aggressive because we want we want them to be held accountable for their very punitive for the punitive measures that they're

sending to like regular opinions. As you said, a lot of sales taps is affect every day before and we don't know how else to stop it. And I think that's why they protest are so they're catching fire and everyone wants to be out in the street.

is to suddenly make it too expensive to live. So let's talk about who. Yeah, how these protests sort of started and how they've been being organized.

So what happened with the the Finance book. People would cut very little clips from the news and then someone would help put it in context. So that's where my channel comes in, where I'm not just using the news clips. I provide evidence like I've got through the Finance built, and then even consults with people who are in like ask lawyers on Twitter, like people who have resources and understand the law, or like what that would mean for

everyday cannons. I would literally reach out and it got to a point where I am now in communication with the right channels, like you can directly ask how this would impact people, like if they tax bread more or like refuse to make it easier for suppliers to get items for the supply chain, how does this affect everyday people? So that helps bridge the graph of information and now with more people critically not just looking at their news

but finding the evidence for themselves. Really have helped us get to a point where when you share, we are protesting about this issue. This is where we're going, this is what's happening. This this will happen in a certain town. So like Nairobi had its own occupy parliament reject the financial demonstration, it happened in Mombasa, to it happened in neary Elderate, all these smaller towns where people will live, but they're people from rural areas. They won't really care.

And I'm like, you don't know that. Yeah. And also something that's really magical that's happened. A lot of Kenyons were like, Okay, maybe there there are a lot of Kenyons who live in rural areas who don't have media that doesn't cater to traditional listeners, like people who only speak certain languages so vernacular stations. So people started using TikTok to do direct translation. It's like this is the script, yes, this is the script for the the financial buildings. Are

the taxes being added. This is the tax on bread, This is the tax on your on your vehicle. This is the tax that will happen on like period and sanitary paths and diapers and everything. So someone does the whole break down in their vernacular language and they share it on their family Whatspp groups called penans love whatksapp. That's why if you're if you want to do anything proper gandalate, you can easily bot onwards app before messages

are crazy. So because like WhatsApp is mostly co opted by antis and moms and people who love to share. Please go to chat share share this to seven friends. People took that mandy to where they send it to their moms and then have it shared like seven of their friends who don't understand me do what the finance bill entails. And that is really changing the landscape of like who gets to interpret the bills, who gets to

understand how it influences them. And it's been very very effective, So people who are passive are more and more understanding of like why everyone is on the streets.

we're not going to let that affect us negatively. We're going to figure out a way through the noise before they start co opting those spaces and start saying, oh, gen z, kids are lying or millennials are just started getting money, so why would they care about taxes? And so everyone is making sure that those spaces are not corrupted. Yeah.

were disappeared, people were children like dropped in forest. Many families couldn't find their members, especially if they went out of protest or do anything. That's why Wankarematas story, who's like one of the biggest environment total champions the world has ever seen. Her story was so unique because in the face of the most brutal dictators and every thing, she showed up and like she didn't just disagree, but she brought back and she did she use the same

tactics that people are using now. She informed the very ignored part of the population to get the information across that if they start taking away your land and putting down your tree and you won't be able to pumb, you won't have anything. This is this whole place is going to be at their set in a couple of years.

So everyone was funnying because like land is a very sensitive issue yea, And that's why the movement worked so well because she was not speaking, she was not just peaking against authoritude that she was going to like the people who who were going to be affected the most. And during those protests she was beaten up. Her hair was like young top her hair. It was very Yeah, it was very graphic and very painful. Like you watch these videos and they're like, who does something like this?

And now it's very replicated. Sorry, it was replicated again like throughout his presidency, but throughout the years, a lot of civil rights movements and all the community based organizations like came together and they will still protest about staff, but the issue it had moved on from like large protests to even smaller protests, being like they would send the police to bitter people who are speaking up about any issue. And usually because like you're in smaller communities,

there's no way to track. So if someone lies in Quibera and it's a slam area and it's mostly disenfranchised, the community organizations there, no they turn and find justice for the family. But because our police are mostly helped, you can't hold them to account because they work for the state, it's very hard to get any form of justice. But this time was it last year when people are protesting about the cost of living. I think it was just shortly before the finance built twenty twenty three past

people were protesting. People were out and they were angry about everything, and people were beaten up. Someone lost their two year old child because the child was beaten by the police. Yeah. Yeah, Like there's a woman who lost her son. Because usually when you're at protests, sometimes the people who are passing by, but because you're there and the police are there, they end up eating. Even if you're not past year, you're not back to the process.

So that there's a woman who ended up losing her son last year to the protest, and her adopted son too. And then this this year, like a couple of weeks ago, she died in a flood in my daddy, So and then yess are like seeing their terrible nature of like how state violence kIPS continuing. So this time when the protests are being organized, everyone who is like make sure you're peaceful, don't carry in stones because like throws stones

like Perry stones. You couldn't even pick up teas and like throw it back and everything, and this time everyone is like, just make sure you're very peaceful, only use your voice, protect each other. Like a lot of the announcements around the protests like make sure it's paceful so that they don't have an excuse to say that you are out on the streets doing something illegal. You don't attack shops, you don't try and force yourself into anyone's premises.

And what happened that was very beautiful this year is like the establishments, like the one I'm in right now was helped protect citizens who were protesting, so kids would be out of this then start getting teaters and like they would open the door, people would come in and they would close the door until the away. Yeah, so you find establishments are working to not just protect people, but also to be to be part of showing like

this is our premises. It's not being looted, it's not being destroyed, because destruction of property apparently is a bigger problem than you losing your life. So most people felt they were safe at the protest, and they also felt like they were seen by other protesters. So it was largely peaceful, very well coordinated. There's information on how to get medical help or in case we're arrested, how to

get as bigal assistance. So every single element was like we're not just going to ban out of like going into the streets, but making sure everyone returns home safely.

A lot of the protests in the past war they got a little violent because maybe some of the protesters went road and obviously their politicians love to use bad actors where they implant a bunch of people who go and destroy business premises, and then it looks like the protesters didn't come there to actually protest, they were there for their own selfish reasons. So this time what happened is like a lot of the protesters were given the

right information on how to stay peaceful. It's like these are the streets to use, these are the meeting points, These are the contract people for in case you get injured, is this medic in case you get arrested, these are the lawyers in case your friend disappears. Make sure they have a live location on so we can track them

and everything. So it was widely successful because that kind of peaceful and well coordinated navigated towards spaces that were if not before, like the safety of everyone was a priority and because our leaders can't really find who started the protests because it's mostly like a group who led the movement, they've started abducting who they feel like our community leaders.

was disappeared, like they kind of appracted him. Yeah yeah, But then Kenyon's held a space online for over six hours and they're like they were dragging government officials and like if you people don't return this particular person, we will, And it was very particularly funny because Kenyon's, you would think this younger generation people don't have concentration issues. No

one is going to listen to us. But like everyone was like online and they were paying attention to like every single speaker just to keep the space longer, holding space for the person who had been taken. And he was found his lawyers, the lawyer, sorry, the lawyers in church found him and they went and like they went and got him and he went back safe, but obviously you could see he was visibly shaken. His creaturent name

is crazy and aerobian. Yeah, and then now today they took one of the doctors was organizing for a blad drive in like in a certain up market area. They just picked him out, and like, no one has been able to find him until now. So people are still advocating to like getting back and a lot of big personalities are making phone calls. Lawyers are showing up that like if you see this particular car, if you if you sit in your location, timely informants share the information.

So everyone who's online is trying to get the right information to make sure that that doctor is brought back. And yeah, ironically that doctor is actually unemployed because the the government is refusing to hire new medical personnel because like it's too expensive when we see them, like driving around in new cars has like very expensive shoes, and everyone is like, your shoes could literally pay like three

doctors high high the right thing. Yeah, but I can ends up pushing to make sure everyone is safe and everyone who's lost, especially big Twitter influencers and big media personalities and influencers are coming together to me, they use their platforms to help find anyone who's not who's been disappeared or been abducted. Yeah, h.

going to disband it. But everyone is just like, we don't want any of this because some of the bills, there's a there's a part of the bill that I didn't mention where the Kenya Revenue Authority is supposed to go through Kenyon's personal data to see you're dodging taxes and I'm like that, it's ridiculous because a lot of people in kinda are supported by a family member. So you find, you find if I have money, I'll send it to my kids, and then my kids made my

body to their friends who's probably in trouble. So if it looks like I have money coming in, it's probably maybe because of like a family contribution, a personal contribution. So they want to charge more taxis on that, and it actually makes no sense. So it looks like they're

chasm how much money you look like you have. Yeah, yeah, it looks like they're checking how much money look like you have, and then they want to taxing on that or like say you're evading taxes, And it's scaring a lot of people because once that happens, it feels like there's no safety in anything you have.

whatever where you relate to this person. Because it's government officials, their numbers should be public anyway, citizens should be able to reach them. And because they wanted to hide behind their big, big cause and big houses, we were like, okay, we're going to find you where you're asked, and we're going to text you and we're going to tell you to vote no. And most of the impulse were very dismissing. They were like, uh, the party that i'm that's backing

me is the one that got me into office. It's like, no, people voted for you, you should represent their views. So a lot of canyons held their lives where's like, I don't care what your boss is telling you or what party this is, you have to vote with us. So a lot of MPs who are shamed online some of them had to but like they changed their votes. Incredible, Yes, yeah,

I dontieve we should do this more often. So that's really that really gave hope to a lot of canons who are feeling like maybe their work isn't amounting too much. But we lost. We lost that one battle. A lot of us ended up using the battle to the second reading because many of the MP's were So there's this fund called the CDF IDIF fund. It's the constituency the Constituency Development Fund that MPs kind of use it like

their personal bank account. So members of Parliament, Yeah, members of PARLIAMENTI get the CDIF fund and then they'll use it to go and like so it's supposed to sally take care of like bursaries or any county emergencies directly affecting constituts. But what IMPY is doing is that like they wild it as a parsenal bank account. So it's like you have to like do a lot of us kissing and a lot of performative nonsense for you to even get some of the money, and a lot of

people don't actually end up getting the money. So what the budget makers did They decided to talk up the CDF fund so that more emplies have more money, and usually they just potet that money. So they're like, Okay, I feel like my budgeted corruption has hit the account, I don't need to do the right thing.

school instead of the individual. Yeah, so that that will help cut down on that kind of corruption that a lot of mpies run with. And I think that's scaring some of them. And we're hoping we're hoping to get more people to be to push their members of Parliament or any nominated representatives to recognize that all these items that they're voting for it's not just going to affect us, but will affect them and the money that they're hoping

to steal. So if you're going to steal progress, we're going to don't get any of the money here.

like very dangerous places. It happens everywhere. No one is any less affected if someone who you hope to lose games power, like you're all in deep trouble, Like no one is on a higher pedestal than the other all of you can actually lose a lot. And one of the things that we are trying to remind each other's

we're trying not to get to this space. So what canons are trying to propose like a direct manifesto where any person who's running has to have like a close in their manifesto that is going to even be turned into like a policy and law where if you steal any money or we co found doing anything corrupt, you have to like remove yourself from office immediately, like there's no bargaining to do whatsoever, Like you have to live office immediately, and then we're going to seize all your

property anything. Yeah, it's like if we're going to get into power, make sure the salary you're getting is then now, if you have any ambitions, let them die now, like do everything before you get into earth. And I think that's so encouraging to see because everyone is not just looking at them now and like all these bad taxes and the bad leadership that we have, but also looking to the future of like how do we make sure

we don't get here again. So that's really encouraging to see everyone is making sure that they hold people to account across the board, like if your protesters, make sure you're safe, make sure you know this information. But also for the future, this is what we want. So it's not just like we're moving bad taxes, but if we're going to pay taxes, are they going to be used?

And how how are we going to make sure that the future of the and cheap is being protected by collective interest and not just like individual worship, which has been a very very big problem in Kenyan culture because like over here musicians are barely celebrities, but a politician would work in here and like people would like lose arms and legs to just see hi. So we're trying to make sure we fix that too. Yeah.

that guy. Did he like lose his mind? Was he always kind of like out there and we just didn't notice because he he got lucky a couple of elections in a row. And the answer to that is no, Nate was a pretty reasonable guy. He comes out of like not politics. He only got into politics in two thousand and six because they banned online gambling and he got angry about it. And then he accurately predicted the two thousand and eight and twenty twelve elections.

hiding behind everything and making everything a lot weirder. And I think part of you know, I think what ultimately caused Nate's madness though, is that in twenty sixteen he did pretty well. He like laid out he was a twenty nine percent chance of Trump winning, and when he explained what that chance was, how Trump might sweep the Blue Firewall states and whatnot, it's basically what wound up happening, and as like a reward for being more or less correct.

While the election was going on, all of the Democrats hated him because the news sources they liked said that Trump had only a two percent chance of winning, and then when the election was over, it became like mainstream kind of reality to just say, yeah, Nate fucked that one up. He finally screwed up, and I think that

that mix of things is what's driven him insane. So I've decided to predict that there's a twenty nine percent chance that the election is basically the same as twenty twenty and now, unlike Nate, I don't have any kind of math to back that up. It's just a gut feeling.

But I'm calling that now because I want people to get really angry at me now, and then ideally, when I'm right, they'll get even angrier at me, and then I can go insany it on social media and just gradly become completely unhinged and see what it's like to be Nate Silver, the Ultimate high Garrison.

closer than twenty sixteen. In twenty twenty, Trump won the state by fifty three point one percent to Biden's forty four point nine percent. But the numbers right now are much much worse for Biden. Not good, No, it's it's it's pretty bad. Tr Trump is leading Biden in the general election in Iowa by eighteen percentage points, and third party candidates, including Kennedy and the Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, are receiving a combined fifteen percent support. It's pretty bad.

It hasn't been this bad in a while.

going to quote from Forbes here quote. Trump leads Biden by one point fifty to twenty nine percent in a CBS poll released Sunday that comes after a streak of surveys found Trump's lead has slipped since his felony conviction Manhattan last month, including a Fox News survey released Wednesday, the nineteenth that shows Biden up by two points, a three point swing since the network's May survey. This was among a streak of five poles since mid June that

show Biden beating or tied with Trump unquote. So Biden has made some considerable progress in the polls in the past month. Biden and Trump are now tied in the Morning Consults weekly survey, as Biden has now been leading Trump by a point in for two weeks in a row. A month prior, Trump was way way ahead of Biden, and the two are also tied in the Economist You Go of survey released last Thursday, as well as a PBST Marrist poll from Tuesday the eighteenth.

of forced to consider what that really means. But it does seem in general like there's been motion and like things have been moving in Biden's favor since the conviction. So I don't think it's wrong to say that probably overall the evidence suggests helps Biden at this point.

which everyone keeps talking about. Is this constant topic of discussion in US politics, but it never happens, and and people were getting very RFK is obviously a bad guy to pin your hopes on a viable third party on, but I am interested to see if it if it, because there's a decent evidence that the primary chunk because when you factor in RFK, Biden's lead doesn't go down right, because RFK is really popular among a lot of the

independence that Trump is already strong with. And so the big question is, like, is he going to drain votes from Trump or just kind of fizzle out. And I think right now the smart money is kind of on fizzling out. But it's it's a little hard to say.

And similarly, the Fox poll also shows Biden leading by nine points among independents.

A political uh ipsos poll from mid June found that thirty two percent of independence say they are now less likely to support Trump after his conviction, with twenty one percent saying it would be an important factor in their vote.

their likelihood support Trump for president. Thirty three percent of respondent said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump, while only seventeen percent said it made them more likely. These results were worse for Trunk. Among respondents who said they were political independents, thirty two percent said that the conviction made them less likely to support and only twelve said that it made them more likely to

support Trump unquote. And that same poll also found that nine percent of Republicans say they're now less likely to support Trump.

prediction the election. His model predicted the last forty elections properly, even though they like ran them through after we knew how the elections were going to go, and I don't know how fair that is. Helmet actually did accurately predict a couple of like the last He's had his model going the primary model for like the last seven elections,

and it predicted five of them correctly. Now, one it got right was twenty sixteen, although it predicted how Trump was going to win wrong, it got that he was going to win right. I don't know how much credence you want to give that. And he fucked up in twenty twenty, although you know the fact that there was a pandemic, then I'll give him a little bit of grace. The other one he fucked up was twenty was two thousand, but he called it.

If I feel like it, I'll vote because Biden's lead jumps substantially when you consider likely voters correct whereas Trump does very well with like maybe voters, and I kind of don't feel like this is going to be a high turnout election. Rights, that's what I am seeing.

A White House incumbent facing no significant challenge in primaries

almost always wins reelection for the electoral college. The most likely outcome of the twenty twenty four election predicted by the model is that Biden will get three fifteen and Trump two two three And basically, so part of why I think this guy's probably a hack, but it's kind of interesting is he's looking at how they performed relative to each other in their primaries, and you could there's a degree to which you can say, like, well, primaries

are absolutely not general elections. But what it does show is relative how much Trump's support has faded from Republicans. And Trump actually did considerably less well in the primaries

than he did in twenty twenty. Right totally, there was a degree of actual like hunger to vote for Kerry Lake Humaya, I think, is the Arizona Right candidate who was running against him, and he showed weakness in a number of primary states that was not there in twenty twenty, which suggests, along with the polling you showed, you know that like nine percent of Republicans are less likely to vote from after they can an amount of weakness in his base that could be pretty meaningful when we get

to the election. And I don't think it's been taken into account enough by, for example, folks on the left looking at how much everybody hates Joe Biden, which is also a very real factor. But I think that people are kind of denying the degree to which a lot of folks who should be his based don't like Trump anymore.

Like everyone who's going to vote for Trump, who like really really really want to vote for Trump, are still going to vote for Trump, right, Like that's how it goes.

it's not important to their voting decision. Well sixty one percent in a Reuter's pull released last week, said it won't impact their vote unquote. Now, one of the clearer shifts that we have seen post verdict is a sizable increase in Biden voters who list stopping Trump as one of their main reasons to do so. This we have numbers from March to now, is that the main reason for supporting Biden. In March, we had forty seven percent saying it's to oppose Trump. Now it's fifty four percent

saying it's to oppose Trump. Which I think that number will only increase the closer we get to the election, because people don't want Trump to be present, and again even though they don't like Biden like. The other thing with these numbers is that the percent of people who say I like Biden as reason for supporting him has decreased since March. Yes, yes, by four percent.

be president. That is everyone that I encounter basically like I'm, I'm obviously you have other people, but it is weird to the extent to which that's what this election is going to come down on. And I kind of think it's evidence that like of a of a failure and strategy in Trump's part, because I think he probably could do better if he were to focus on allaying those fears that he wants to become a dictator as opposed to harping on like one of the things that's interesting

to me. He's campaigning very heavily in Wisconsin right now. He's already made like two visits just to southeast Wisconsin in the last two months. Because Wisconsin is up for grabs right Every poll I've seen basically is within margin of air. It's either guy's game, and it's a critical state. And Trump is hammering Biden on crime in Wisconsin. Right look at how your dims have done, look at how

much more violent this city's become. And about one percent of registered voters in Wisconsin consider crime a major concern in a presidential election. And part of that's because like violent crime has dropped and like massively in Wisconsin and nationwide over the last year. And I do wonder the extent to which because Americans' views on crime are not

based on how bad crime actually is. But I also wonder if people are start are like the degree to which that's a vote in concern for people is fading because it has dropped so much. And I'll be curious to see if kind of Trump's strategy of hammering the Democrats because they're bad on crime is going to prove to be a serious misstep.

the conviction in people's vote. Quote, twenty two percent of respondents said the conviction is important to how they will vote and that it will make them less likely to support Trump. Only six percent of respondents took the other side of the question, saying they are more likely to support A nearly identical negative effect showed up among independents, with twenty one percent saying they are less likely to support and five percent saying they are more likely unquote now.

Of those who say the conviction is important to how they will vote, seven percent of Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump. So that's an interesting number, and only thirteen percent say they are more likely and like, come on, those people were always going to vote for Trump anyway. Forty percent of Democrats, of course, say that

they are less likely now. Twenty eight percent of Republicans say that the conviction makes them more likely to support Trump, but it won't affect their vote, and among those who said the conviction isn't important to how they will vote, forty percent said that it has basically no impact on their support of Trump. Most those people are independents now.

Political also asked respondents if they thought the prosecution was brought to help Joe Biden, and most around fifty one percent disagree with the claim, but forty three percent agreed and said that the case had probably been brought to help Biden, and these results are roughly similar among independents. So still most people don't think so, and there's people who have, you know, suspicions. Not not super surprising.

so glorious, those are not really set in stone. And Political also notes that there's a number of upcoming events and variables that could change of the public's opinion before November, you know, including all of the ongoing efforts by political operatives to influence people of the public perception of both the conviction and just you know, the election in general.

political move. But still about half of adults do approve of Trump's conviction. The AP did a poll with the NORC a week after Trump's conviction, but before Hunter Biden was convicted on that federal gun case, and uslts seems more likely to support Trump's conviction than they are to disapprove, with at least forty eight percent saying they approve and just twenty nine somewhat or strongly disapproving and twenty one you know, not approving or disapproving, to quote from the AP,

Republicans are less united on the verdict than Democrats. Roughly six and ten Republicans disapprove, while fifteen percent approve the other to and ten neither approve nor disapprove. Overall, opinions on Trump have barely budged. About six and ten US adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, just in line from our findings in a poll conducted last February, four in ten have a favorable view of Trump. When also largely unchanged since February. The numbers are equally poor for Biden.

For and ten US adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while six and ten have a negative one unquote.

say that they'll definitely do so again. Now this this poll also does show that Trump's support among young voters has been almost unchanged since twenty twenty.

the general electorate. And this is part of a shift among white voters with degrees that has been We get a lot of talk and this has been significant, especially like Latino voters shifting towards the GOP has been a really important story too, but this one does not get talked about as much. In the four years since Biden took office, white men with degrees have shifted twenty four points towards Biden, and he has gained nineteen points with among white women with degrees, which is like a huge

amount of his support. And also that's one of the groups that's likeliest to vote. Like the strength that Biden has gained among kind of middle of the road leaning conservative suburban voters is potentially going to be a cider in this election.

of it's kind of interesting. In twenty sixteen, Clinton generally pulled much higher than Trump for the duration of the race, though in late July the two were neck and neck, with the gap closing once again in late September and the week of the election, Trump was on average trailing by less than three point five percent behind, which is often in the margin of error for these polls, and pollsters usually consider something under three percent being a toss up.

Now this is three point five percent, so still is it was trending towards Clinton, and there's there is reasons why in terms of their polling methodology that was flawed, But the polls were actually a bit closer than I think what public perception seems to remember of the twenty sixteen polls.

things he pointed out after twenty sixteen. The minute you have a forecast where there's less certainty, people don't like that. The minute you have a forecast that doesn't have a Democrat winning, they don't like that very much. And it's to point out, like his he kind of started to become a heel as soon as he started showing that like Trump had a real shot at winning, and as his as his forecast continue to show kind of weakness

among the Democrats, it got people angrier and angrier. And that's most of what makes people determine whether or not something is a credible source on the election. And that's kind of why a lot of this is like a doomed effort, is because people consider, you know, an expert credible if they are saying something they want to hear, because most of what people want in terms of election polling is to feel reassured that things are going to be okay, right, and that's that's your kind of It's

always like a confirmation bias game. And it's also one of those things where, like the instant you do well, if you are legitimately a rigorous, you know, expert, and you predict things correctly, you're going to suddenly be this focus of so much media attention and have so much money and job offers thrown your way that it will inherently drive you mad, which is part of why again, I am predicting a twenty nine percent chance that things are basically the way they wear in twenty twenty, so

I can get all that sweet, sweet CNN money, you know, if I wind up being right. I am curious, Scaris and kind of in that line because as our as our official poll expert, you kind of came into this, I don't think with a strong set of biases about what would happen when you actually started drilling down into the numbers, did that change it all your impression of what was going on this election?

than it was in twenty twenty. Poles thought that twenty twenty would be a much much more obvious win for Biden. It was, it was, it was a closer election than what people thought. But this I think will be even even closer. So it's it's gonna be it's gonna be a tricky one. We're going to be kind of on the edge of our seat come.

do think there's a really good chance. I think this is basically a coin flip.

Trump's support. And this has been fixed fixed for via a number a number of methods. You know, there's certain theories people have had, like the quote unquote shy Trump voter theory, which is kind of largely disputed, of saying that you know.

to respond to polls. So all this does get adjusted for, especially since twenty sixteen, because that was the main cause of the polls kind of being fucked up that year. So what exactly happened in twenty twenty, Then if these things like the not in college vote and the shy Trump voter theory were sort of adjusted for well, a few things happened. The pandemic one, you know, made certain

pulling things. Ure's a little bit unique. The election also featured the highest number of voter turnout in decades, something that we're probably not expected to see in twenty twenty four. In twenty twenty, the national polls were too favorable to Biden by three point nine points, state polls by four point three. I'm going to read a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research analyzing twenty twenty election poll errors.

If this was indeed the issue, it was probably made worse by Trump in twenty twenty by being very disparaging to polls, making his base probably less likely to honestly engage with polling metrics, and both in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty there was large large post mortems among the polling community trying to figure out how to improve, and twenty twenty two's polls were more accurate than any election since nineteen ninety eight, with almost no bias towards either party.

So that is a good side in terms of the accuracy of polls.

of the time. Unquote, And that kind of lines up with our current situation, right, Biden was even though the polls were slightly skewed towards Biden in twenty twenty, he was so far ahead that most of the polls in terms of saying who would win, we're still correct because Biden was just so far ahead this time. That will not be the case. That's not that's not what the

polls are going to say. The polls are going to show this being a much closer race, and that I think that is what it's going to be come come November. So yeah, that's kind of that's kind of the low down of the current the current polling situation. I'll be curious to see, you know, what the numbers are post debate and especially after the sentencing in July.

in like January of twenty twenty five. That'll be That's why I'll toss up honestly, thereal'll toss up a helmet versus Nate Baby, who's gonna win? I kind of think they both might be common. Oh yeah, that wasn't the opening of the podcast, or unless it was. I guess it was because we were recording Welcome to It could happen here, Harrison. I had to open an episode about a terrible, terrible piece of voice acting history with some horrible voice acting of my own. It was the only right way.

things that we will slowly get into. I first just want to go over the mini pilot itself, because right now the only thing that's out is like this three minute or so little mini pilot, And we'll get into why this is the only thing that's out right now, but I'm first just want to do kind of like a short play by play, and it will be short because it again, it's only three minutes. Yeah, of what happens in this new perspective animated sitcom that they want

to air on Twitter dot com now known as x Yes. So, I think the first thing you need to know about it, you know, besides you know, the Dave rubenness of it all, it looks like early two thousands flash animation, like really bad early two thousands flash animation. It's not good.

been wokefied with rainbow packaging. The man reacts in horror, and his more liberal daughter remarks progress, it's the new norm, and then a pandering a country music theme song plays, which we will we will play for you later just because it's so bad.

be falling off of them. No, it's so loose. It's so really bad animation, right, Like, I'm not even saying that's a good bit, But if that's your bit, you have to actually design the characters to sell the bit, as opposed to me constantly thinking how is that fucking ankle monitor staying on his goddamn ankle anyway, whatever.

monitor starts beeping. He blames his liberal daughter for being put on house arrest for quote unquote threatening the school board, which he says he did because the school was quote brainwashing kids into thinking girls aren't girls and men aren't men. His daughter says, sometimes they're neither or both, or dressed like dogs. Anyway, his wife comes home.

but like that is the impression you're left with. And again, if you actually were someone who was kind of conservative, conservative sympathetic, like Mike Judge making like a cartoon, you can actually get some mileage out of the accepting the idea that like, Okay, you've got these curmudgeonly older people and you've got their kids who are like way more open about this kind of stuff, and there's there's there's room for plots as King of the Hill did pretty

well that kind of lampoon the culture in general, but it requires a little more self awareness. Like again, if there was a little bit you might wonder, like, what are we saying if we're the people making this right wing piece of propaganda that all of the young people feel very differently about gender than their parents.

change and they slowly get outdated social beliefs. Anyway, every single time that Norm addresses the non binary character, referring to them as pronoun or that his little AI Amazon assistant just bleeps out offensive. Offensive.

is not straight edge. Chas is just saying I cannot legally drink beer.

you could actually be bits around that over time. But they just they threw all these people in knowing that like the two hundred people who are as right wing online as them would get who all these were as opposed to doing the thing that you would do if you were actually making a show for mainstream consumption, which is like make fun of people that the audience will recognize.

Throw with Joe Biden in there right, like obviously you're doing this in twenty twenty four, Like where is anyone that someone who's not completely lost their mind to this stuff will recognize?

mix of reactions to this. You know, some of the blue checks on Twitter were kind of lapping this stuff up. One person with the username Amazing Gaming Productions wrote, I know some people are critiquing it, but my fee once and I laughed at a couple points. It's a good start. I hope you continue to work on it. We need all of the indie material we can create. And included in this tweet is a picture of a very poorly drawn avatar saying, Hi, my name is Indye David. I'm

here to fight Goliath. Mainstream Oh my God is a gamer Gate two themed gaming company who wants to create anti woke games. They've done in nothing. They just post really bad artwork. And I cannot overstate how bad.

as well be flushing money down the toilet. He then went on to say, give me a small team, a million dollars and total creative control, and we will make a cartoon pilot that will melt faces. So again he just wants to to get his own his own TV show, but a whole bunch of these, you know, kind of right wing cultural critics were we're not we're not infused with this, with this outing because it's because it's really bad.

So I want to get into kind of who is behind this now the full I hesitate to say creative team, but the people by the same team. Yeah, the team behind the New Norm Show. Not to be confused with the Fox two season documentary show The New Norm have been have been largely kept secret, possibly out of fears of humiliation.

Now I believe these two could be much more critical to what makes up the comedy of The New Norm Show. Not to be confused with the Oatly Oat Milk series of online puppet shorts titled The New Norm anal show. Now, I assume most people listening to this are familiar with Dave Rubin. Like many of these right wing influencers, he's a failed comedian turned political podcaster who's been positioning himself further and further to the right over the course of

the last decade. Now, JP Sears was a quote unquote holistic life coach who turned kind of into like a YouTube skeptic type satirical comedian, and while trying to parody new age WU and conspiracy theories, JP was peddling his own pseudoscience and adopting more and more conspiratorial beliefs. Over time, JP and his comedy began moving further and further to the right. But the COVID nineteen lockdown was kind of the breaking point where he went all in on anti vaxx,

COVID nineteen and January sixth conspiracy theories. But I think there has to be at least one other contributor, you know, behind like the art and design of the show, and I can't I can't figure out who that is. I scrolled through all of the tweets to try to find out if this account had another name. I can't find out who exactly this other person is. There is there

is one mystery, one mystery component. But one interesting thing I did uncover is that the New Norm show, not to be confused with the twenty twelve TV show The New Normal, has been in production in some form for over four years. They've been working on this for over four years. There's one frame from a video titled Character Sketch Evolutions posted on September nineteenth of last year, and this show's project files stretching all the way back to

January of twenty twenty. They've been working on this since January twenty twenty. Early sketches of the daughter feature and Antifa and transgender tattoo on her left arm. Also she has a kefia and posters that read Vegans for Palestine, all all in twenty twenty artwork.

And also that I assume the mystery contributor that we don't know probably was working on the webcomic and then kind of rope gain more and more people the sated series. But I am going to read out this webcomic just because it is fascinatingly bad.

It's not even no, no one was talking about defunding the fire department. Not true anyway.

things are better. And you can actually, like there's things you could do with that were you actually making comedy. But like the fact that they the fact that the escalation is rather than sort of like examining this world and like why shit like this gets done just to kind of like make these like performative gestures. Instead, it's like, and next they're going to replace James Woods with ben Affleck? Which therey good do the gen Z kids do the

progressives like ben Affleck? Does anyone feel all that strongly about ben Affleck?

be confused with the ongoing podcast series. The New Norm is an animated sitcom for our woke world, an edgy yet family friendly comedy that shines a funny light on today's most divisive issues and gives Americans a safe space to come together and laugh. Just fantastic stuff.

you're doing. It means that you your show is going to be monetized alongside those ads for games that don't exist that just show like boy like little action cartoon characters leaping into the legs of like very horny drawings of Gorgan's and shit and actual straight up pornography because there is no money on.

It seems their primary marketing strategy seems to be sucking up to Elon Musk to attract attention from him and his fan base. Now, I haven't seen anyone else talking about this yet, but the New Norm Show, not to be confused with the New Norm McDonald Show, actually released

their first video project last March. It was titled Elon Musk xaoc ai Animation unquote what, with show creator Dave Rubin saying the future of animation is AI The video starts with an AI image of Elon Musk in a black suit, with voiceover of Norm A dressing Musk saying, Hey, Elon, check this out. We cut to a congressional deposition where AOC is questioning Elon Musk, who is wearing a spacesuit about him, replying, quote unquote true to a meme posted by Norm saying that AOC is hot but not smart.

one of these tweets with a thumbs up emoji. That's it, I got, that's that's it, like sometimes with a flaming thumbs up, sometimes with a regular thumb up emoji, but replying to every single tweet they just did a thumbs up. It's so it's so lazy, like like.

the first episode drop? Soon but sooner if y'all give here with the donation link.

I discovered. So I've been trying to watch more nineties Simpson lately, Good for You, Good for You, Solid Move, And as I was watching the three minute pilot, something started to feel a little bit familiar. And then I read the Kevin Sorbo review All in the Family for

Our Time, and I realized something. This whole show is just stealing a cutaway gag from a nineteen ninety nine Simpsons episode about a fake sitcom called All in the Family nineteen ninety nine, in which a new, more woke and inclusive a version of the original show is airing on TV. And here's a collection of images Robert in my Google document that shows early concept art of Norm looking exactly like the main character of.

But like, and I remember that bit too, which is like a it's actually a because there were conservatives writing on the Simpsons in the nineties, one of the John Schwartzwelder, was like a famous libertarian, like he's a but he's also like funny, and so they made a good bit about like pec like the rash of like overtly politically correct shows right like it's it's it's a it's a fun little aside joke that Schwartzwelder was enough of a comedian to know is good for about six seconds exactly.

It has the parody of Archie from All in the Family kind of being like offensive in an old fashioned way, you know, bemoaning that he has to be around all these people, but also saying that he loves everyone in the way that these kind of shows like to play both sides by showing the main character is still good nature despite his faults, and then he flips again saying he's he's only come back to do the show because

he needs money. The bit doesn't overstate it's welcome, it lasts only like ten seconds, and yet is infinitely more funny than the entirety of this three minute pilot, And Dave Rubin actually thought he could just rip off a shore to obscure Simpson's joke and stretch it into an entire show and no one would notice. So I was really happy to find that this was just stealing an old Simpson's joke really poorly too.

anti woke projects. And it doesn't work. It simply doesn't. For one, it's plagiarizing, and the second and and like secondly it's it's just bad. But yes, I will I will post some of these comparison pictures on h on my Twitter at Hungry bow Tie if you want to see the uh, the shocking, shocking hard works.

screen grab to the animated That's so funny. God, this The Simpsons was such a good show and its golden years that people are still trying to competently rip it off, and again they compare themselves to like the South Park of X. South Park even did a much better job of ripping off The Simpsons and making that be the focus of an episode that like everyone rips off the Simpsons because of how the long they've been going on, Like yeah, anyway, whatever.