Hey guys, it's Gale. Thanks for listening to our beating the book feed. We really appreciate it. I know I do. Did you know that?
On top of the podcast, I also do a daily show called a Numbers Game on vsin the Sports Betting Network. That show is also its own podcast, and you can find it by searching for a Numbers Game wherever you get your podcasts. We did something on the show this morning that I think you'll like it. I wanted you to hear it.
Take a listen.
Numbers Game on fe SID the Sports Betting Network.
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two Puerto Rico residence. That's Perto Rico Residence Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Beidlin Kelly document documentary I Should Say What's wrong with Me?
Documentary recommendation all over the docks.
Recently, Yeah yeah, on like episode three Quarterbacks still so good, isn't it good?
It's awesome?
Quarterback Quarterbacks on Netflix again, a Patrick Mahomes Kirk Cousins Marcus Mariota focused docu series eight episodes, so good. It'll get your pump for football. And uh, Deeph Curry. The one I want to mention is the one on Apple TV about Steph Curry.
What it is? Anybody talk tremendous love it on Apple on Apple Okay?
Uh it is called underrated Stephan Curry underrated and.
It has I'm firing that up on the plane goes back. It's a lot of it from the Davidson days and it's so so good. And you realize, as much as we appreciate Steph Curry four championships changing the game of basketball, we do not appreciate him enough what he did from nowhere.
No, we don't unrecruited.
I mean, and those Davidson days, like that was such an awesome It was such an awesome run. And I mean, I'll be the first to admit it, Like I was definitely one of those people. I was like, what an adorable story, like this is such a great story. Del Curry's kid. He can't miss a shot. This is great, too bad, Like this is as far as he's gonna go. Like this isn't gonna translate, and then just just change the NBA.
They talk to his team mates from that team, how they just you know, they rode him to glory. How close he still is with the coach back then. It's just, you know, a lot of his family, his kids are are featured in it as well, him going back to get his degree.
It's it's awesome.
I'm the whole thing seeing it behind you. I'm pumping for the Lakers show to start back up again. Show winning Time, Showtime.
Winning Time? Is it called the winning Time?
Winning Time? Actually got one right.
Everything about that was great, except where they just destroyed Jerry West, which some people say is accurate.
Some people are like, I don't know why they did that.
I I feel like most of what I read from people that know him said like both of those things, like a lot of it's accurate, but it wasn't necessary.
Yeah the other.
One, what was the what was the other thing? I just saw step on.
The that show that I fixed on the internet, just on the Internet. But it's what is it hot ones or hot wings or whatever? You ever seen that where they eat the.
Really hot comes up on TikTok or Instagram.
Or it's a it's a great idea. I don't think the guy's agreed, but that's just me.
Yeah, he's he You don't think about him at all.
Yeah, I don't think about him at all. I think it's a great idea for a show. But Steph was on there.
Oh, he was telling a story about like his first interactions with.
Kobe in the league.
Those were amazing stories. That's one you got to go check out if you get a few moments.
I couldn't get past the third level of those wings.
I'm guessing, Oh it's it's it's bad because like in that type of story, he's talking about Kobe and it's like he's got you know, he's got a sniffle.
A couple of times you're like, oh, is he is he kind of crying? No, he just ate like really hot wings.
That's why the only other time Kobe came up on the show real quick cause I want to get to survivor. We were off air and we're talking about Diana Tarassi yesterday and you compared her to Kobe Diana Trossi the Mercury yesterday became becoming the first WNBA player to score ten thousand points. She scored forty two, and the Mercury's twenty point went over the dream.
Last night, I didn't see the game, but just watching the highlights, it was like she's taking every shot.
And just making everything. And you got and you pull up the box.
Score and it was pretty much that way too. She had forty Nobody else had scored double digits on the team. She was the entire score, the entire score of the entire for the team.
By the way, Hard Knocks with Your Wonder End begins next week on HBO Max.
Yes, yes, Jil, I think I got a few things to get through before I.
Get I do two, all right, Survivor this is uh. We sort of wet our appetite with this yesterday when Crack was in here talking about Week one, and now there's only one team favored by more than six and a half points, that being the Baltimore Ravens week one. There's a couple teams other teams that are six and
a half point favorites. Maybe the Commanders will end up being the most popular selection week one, and it sort of got us thinking, what about just overall survivor strategy And Kelly, this is again falls onto the category of maybe you like what I have to say here, maybe you don't. You know, just hopefully there's some food for thought, there's something in this for you. First of all, I
always say the game is misnamed, right. The fact that it's called survivor gets most people to think the object here is to survive, when the object is to win.
The object is to win.
Keep that in mind, because if most people have a survivor mentality, that will shift the game theory over to you and you will actually have the proper mentality to get to the promised Land with this.
That's it.
I don't think you get too cute early. We talked about earlier on the show how there's some people who they map it out from the beginning of the year. They're like, there you go, eighteen weeks of football. I figured it all out. Now I'm just on autopilot. Well, I don't think you get too cute in the first handful of games the first month of football. Because we on this show, we on this network. Anyone who's talking about pro football during the summer, we're talking none of
us knows a thing. Yeah, none of us knows a thing. That doesn't mean that we don't have something of value to say. At some point. Maybe there's an opinion that manifests. But the truth is, it's like, how many NFL seasons is that there were one two weeks into the season, we're like, oh my god, I completely add this team wrong.
Every year every year.
Just like examples from a year ago, Yes, uh, Matt Ryanan in Indianapolis Colts, We're gonna just smoke the AFC South right, and then oh boy, that division of DEATHFC West, Oh boy, you didn't want to play.
In that, It's gonna be the greatest division of all the time.
I totally said those words too.
I'm sure I did to some degree as well. But I do think so I don't think you do that at the begining. I think at the beginning you don't play it cute. You gravitate towards even though you know we don't know much. There are some things you know probably better than others. You play it conservatively. This is just my opinion, but I do think about five six weeks through the season, then maybe you start with the mapping out right you're deep enough into it, there's probably
a lot of people eliminated by that point. Or you start the map out but again, not a sacred thing. But here are the big tenets to know generally, whether you agree with when you start to map and when you don't, maybe you don't map at all. Know the size of your pool, like with dfs, know the size of your pool. The fewer people that are in it, the less frisky you got to get, the more conservative you ought to be. The more people that are in it,
the more sort of chance taking you should take. Generally speaking, you should really employ game theory at that point. Again, remember the object is to win, not to survive. Often, and this is a big point. Often the option on a given week that is just a few percentage points lower in win probability, but as far less popular can be a great pick. That is the big thing to know. It's one thing to know the size of your pool. It's another to know what is going to be the
most popular pick of that given week. That's where the game theory comes in, if you know. I once asked Jeff Parl as we did a thought exercise when he was the producer. We're heading into the Thanksgiving game and I said, jeffre's one hundred people left. If you knew ninety nine we're going to take the Cowboys, would you take the Raiders? And he said I couldn't do it. And I was like, Jeff, how often in life do you get a chance at six million dollars?
Right? You have to be able to just and this is the problem with Survivor.
You've survived for survived, right for as long as you have the ability to put it all out on the line. You have to be able to do that mentally if you think it's going to give you this great win percentage advantage if that team, if the most popular team is going to get knocked out, you have to think
that way. Specific pool rules, you know, like with Circa, you have to know that there's a Thanksgiving quirk in there, so you have to be able to you know, you can't go into obviously a contest like that not knowing that, because then you'll expend to the Thanksgiving teams. So you got to know stuff like that. And that's just some myths that you hear people say during a Survivor year. Well, they'll say things like, well, you know what, I never
played division games. You should always avoid division games. Well, the truth is because the the belief of that is that you know that their upsets are more likely when two division rivals get together. But the truth is that even though that may sound good and easy for your brain to digest. Oh yeah, that sounds right, division rivals
more upsets happen, the evidence simply doesn't support it. Since two thousand and two, among teams favored by five points or more, the types of teams you would pick in Survivor, generally, division favorites have actually won a higher percentage division favorites. So you have to sort of stay away from that kind of advice in general. Some things just sound better than they actually are in reality. And then one thing that is true though, like then there's other advice that
people give. You know, road favorites do in fact lose more than home favorites do. So some things that people like to throw around are actually true, some aren't. Just keep those things in mind. So again, some of those things are going to resonate with you, others are not. I hope there's something in there for you to keep in mind. When we start Survivor, whether it's CIRCA, whether it's your own local survivor pool, whatever, it's the best contest going period, more than a contest and obsession.
One question for you, real quick. Do you max out entries?
If you can, I think you get close if not fully yes, though ten is a lot for a lot of people. I hear you for Circa this year when it was six. Last year, I did five.
Just to give you an example. Can't wait.
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