Beating the Book: The NFL Draft Betting Special

super thoughtful when it comes to betting. Have him on a numbers game on visa to talk tennis mostly, but perhaps football is his number one sport along with tennis. UM love talking all sports with him that he has expertise in, and certainly the NFL is chief among them. As witnessed here in our draft discussion. This was fun. Um. I did a previous segment where I went through all of my NFL draft props that I'm betting in depth. Didn't include that here, but I do refer to them

during the show. Some of my thinking has actually changed on a few of them. So all of these things are dynamic. But Drew and I get into that as well. I hope you enjoy I think you will enjoy it. I'm confident that you will NFL Draft exclusively right here with your Densick on the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy it's a numbers game with your host, Jil Alexander. Unto us to believe in Adam lives. Yes, it is Gil Alexander live from San Francisco. Good morning to you. How

are you doing. Hope everything's good with you and yours staying safe during the global pandemic. We'll trying to keep you distracting for the next couple of hours. NFL Draft extravaganza. Here with our buddy who usually joins us to talk about tennis. You can find him onto it are obviously whale Capper, that's what he goes by. He's our buddy, Drew Dinstick. Good morning to you, Drew, Thanks so much for doing this. Good morning to you, Gil. This is

fantastic to be on. This is a super exciting that we finally get real live sports to handicap. Albeit you know, not of the contest variety, but the prop market for the NFL Draft is one of my favorite markets to get into every year, and this year with the unbelievable amount of offerings, you know, everybody is getting into the game. It feels like and there's more variety, more arbitrage, more intrigue, Like this is one of the better drafts of kind of my betting life. And so I'm super fired up

for this year. Couldn't agree more. Something I've been into for years as well, and it just seems like, based on the circumstances, everybody's into it this year. As you point out, Um, first of all, where are you, by the way, it's good to see you outside. Where are you? So? I live in Long Beach, California. It's, uh, we finally are getting spring here. We have had like this pro long protracted cold wet, uh, you know, like winter into springs.

So it's finally nice. Weather's breaking a little bit of hope. You know, California in general is feeling pretty positive about the pandemic. So I think, you know, we're we're we're rowing the boat in the right direction. Here. I'm in San Francisco. We got gorgeous yesterday as well up here. Um, but we will talk draft, and let's let me just start.

You know, all I've been doing the last week or so is we've been batting Danny Burke, who's in studio there in Las Vegas and I have been batting back props. I've given my bets that I've made. But you make a great point there right off the top it, and so how I want to approach it today is just kind of go through how we see the top ten unfolding, and from that we could sort of unravel some of the some of your bets, some of the things you're thinking about. Um. But you start with that initial point.

I think we should probably emphasize that again I have in past days, but let's just say what you said, there the opportunities to it in many places. We can't emphasize that enough, can we. Now this is there's probably only one core tenant to this. I mean, there's a couple. This is an information market. It's unique. This isn't the same as like a Sunday NFL game. Limits are different,

the way the market moves is different. Um. And that's massively important because there's no don best screen, there's no uh, you know, there's no one market making book that is really establishing you know, that is doing price discovery right like when it comes to an NFL game, Like there's pretty clearly there are market leaders that will take bigger limits earlier that are out there doing price discovery that are sharpening a market before you know, the guys that

want to lay five six figures on a game can get in. And that's not the case at all with the you know, these kind of betting props because you know that they don't show up on the screen. Uh. You can open up three books that you know across you know, Vegas offshore, New Jersey and you're gonna see prices is all freaking over the place. And it's just it's just a much more rigorous manual task to kind of uh kind of align um different books and you know and kind of balance risk when you have this

kind of unusual marketplace. Uh. And because of that, that presents an enormous amount of value to us as that you know, as the betters, because you can pick off

you know, risk crew bets. Uh, you know pretty much throughout the entirety of the cycle, let alone betting into numbers that you think will move you know, a substantial amount in you know, March and then coming back in April and you know, and taking the scalt Gil Alexander Drew did sick our guest this so our talk NFL Draft with us here at Visa, the sports betting network, serious exit of Channel two, O four, Visa dot com, the Visa app, Fubo, sling a game plus um and

the other you know. The other big thing that is key with with a draft like this is the notion of mock drafts. So our you know, our research so to speak, what we're basing our predictions on obviously have nothing to do with ball games we've watched in recent weeks and in a larger swath of example size, but really with a cadre of quote unquote experts that are mock drafters, and I'm curious, a how much you rely

on that? Uh, and then be which are the specific authors of mock drafts that you rely on more than others? Maybe this is this is an incredible talking point, and I'm I want to I'll lay out my thoughts on this, but I'm curious because you've been doing this for as long long you've been doing the you know, uh, paying attention to the space for longer in your opinion, maybe

even more well informed than I have on this. But I at this point in time, I kind of take specific experts who have especially broad platforms, you know, especially you know, um, you know, wide reach, uh, and kind of categorize them in my head in terms of, Okay, this guys putting out a mock like where is this

information coming from? Right, Like a guy like we'll start at the top in terms of you know, in terms of audience with ESPN, Right, a guy like mel Keeper, Like, I'm not looking at his information and I'm not catching news bites that mel Keeper is dropping and using that to make actionable bets because, in my opinion, a lot of his information is sourced from agents. Right. He's a lot of his power, a lot of his you know,

you know resource to the industry. You know it's coming from agents, and he's doing solids for you know, for various you know parties, and you know that's kind of um, you know, his source as far as I can tell you, uh. And so for that reason, it's kind of disconnected from reality in terms of who what teams are going to pick what? Right, he probably has some sources in leagues, circles. You know, he's been around for long enough. Um, but you know, his kind of main role, his main sources,

in my opinion, don't really inform you know, a draft process. Similarly, mix Shay at ESPN. I feel like he's kind of he's he thinks of himself as kind of an NFL scout in his own right and is much more involved in the process of evaluating talent, trying to identify needs for teams, and trying to do his mock in the way of, Okay, well, I'm going to find the perfect fit for each player for each team, right, And that's also not really a way you want to approach this.

You're you know, we you want to find a guy that has that is well connected to a number of front offices, well connected to a number of scouts, and because his mock draft is going to reflect much more a reality of the board once we see it, in my opinion, Uh, and you know, of the guys that I look for, other guys I look at, I think Daniel Jeremiah at the NFL network is at this point

in time the most well connected. It used to be mayok, I thought totally, but nowadays nowadays I think, I think Jeremiah has got the got the inside track on a lot of this stuff. Um. And then you know, beyond that, like the cadre of you know, people who are kind of entering the space and you know doing uh, you know, their own mock ups. You know, guys from you know Draft, you know Draft Network, and you know some of the other you know versioning, um, you know writers out there.

You know they're kind of a mix of of kind of taking some information from the info guys and combining it with their own scouting and uh. And I think you know kind of the Mickshae model of kind of putting together a mock where you're informing it based on your own film and your own scouting and trying to identify team need like for us as handicappers, that's the least useful, um, but that's the most prevalent information out there. That's I think that's a great breakdown just to uh

sort of Butcher's your Daniel Jeremiah point Um. I think he's a number one to sort of the the football draft followers that I respect go that way as well. By the way these things can be are are graded right in in about years going by, so we can actually see the performance of some of these guys from the past. And you know, the one sort of counter argument I would make to what we're saying oftentimes, so I don't want to rely too much on any one person, right,

No one person is sacred in their predictions. But like I love Jeremiah so much, for instance, Drew that when he comes out with another iteration of his mock when something changes, it is like a it's like a bomb dropping in my draft world, where I'm like, oh my god, what happened between two point oh and three point oh? So perhaps I get more, you know, like I'm more rattled by that than I should be, uh if I was diversifying a little more. But he's a guy that

I really rely on. And then there's the old tried and true thing for me, which I don't think could be overstated enough, which is we hear this from people about all you know, following beat writers during standard, standard sports seasons, but this is the one time for me where I can't get enough of it. Now has to be reliable, right because there's a lot of you know, Shenanigans out there too. We might have seen that with Isaiah Simmons going to the Giants, for instance, earlier this week.

But I think like for me, just as a guy who grew up in Washington, d C. As a Redskins fan who still talks to my Redskins peeps all the time and I and I'm not a beat reporter for the Redskins, but there's something about having the pulse on your local team, and that the Chase Young is a Chase Young example is a great one for me here early on. And we'll see if the Redskins do draft Chase Young in the end, but I've never wavered on

them drafting him. While others have sort of speculated about trades that that sort of ebden flowed through the last couple of weeks, it's just like, no, they're not. It just doesn't feel that way to be based on everything I know. So it's a combination. Look, there's no science to this other than know who you're relying on and that sometimes the biggest names aren't the ones you should

be relying on the most. What a great point. Uh, there's the guy I turned out notifications for back in the middle of March who covers the Giants for like NJ dot Com. Guy you've never heard of in the sports landscape, but he was the first guy that was beating the drum with the Giants are gonna take Daniel Jones at six last year, And I remembered it because I was like, man, this guy really is sure of this,

Like what yeah, really yeah? And then like by like by March thirty one, like you know, he was you know, like he was on it in like mid March, and by March thirty one, like every other major outlet across all of uh, you know, New York, New Jersey was like, yeah, no, this Daniel Jones thing seems real. And then sure enough

he goes off the board at six. And I made a pretty decent amount because just kind of speculating because this one guy was like so sure uh And so I've had him on you know, notifications on just to see because you know, I don't think Gentleman has especially made up his mind. I do think they're almost certainly going to go offensive line. But of these top three guys I have these top three guys, I don't think

they they have made up their mind yet. And so I'm still kind of you know, I have a little bit uh you know, kind of you know, some some positions to kind of cover what I think they're going to do. But you know, I think we'll we'll still get you know, a tip of the hand here, because Gettleman tends to, you know, as whereas some organizations are very um cloak and dagger smoke and you know, really

try to you know, miss miss you know, misdirection. Gettleman has always sort of been you know, I'm gonna tell them like it is. And you know, once I got you know, some information and I say it like that, it is what it is. So I think we'll see them sip their hand in the next week. But we'll see. And and last thing about that Daniel Jones getting drafted by the Giants early last year you saw on ESPN largely because some of their experts didn't have that happening, right.

It was the other guys like NJ dot com, as you point out, that had Daniel Jones going to the Giants. They We actually have tape of the reactions of folks on ESPN just go nuts when the Giants draft and right like, oh my god, we didn't see this coming at all, because it's this weird insular world of our experts are predicting something and so therefore all surprise emanates from that. It's it's this weird sort of universe anyway. Um, By the way, Drew jan sick I said at whale

Capper earlier. That is incorrect. It's at whale underscore Capper. Let's make sure we yes, I don't know where we're going. If you go whale Caper could be something entirely different. Oh, let's begin with Oh wow, that's maybe that's worth a searching. It's all right, uh one and two. Then let's just start there. Let's get that out of the way. Are we convinced. Are you convinced that it is Joe Burrow to the Bengals and Chase hil to the Redskins. Yeah,

I would. I I talked to somebody who bets in the UK, uh, and you know, we were kind of truly pricing this yesterday and I gave him prices, you know, basically minus five thousand. That Borrow goes one, and I think for for Chase Young to go to I have it in the minus one thousand range at this point. Um. But just kind of like your sentiment of the you know, the folks that are well connected to the Redskins. And I've heard other people say this besides you, is is

that Chase Young as a slam dunk there. Um, you can still find prices, you know. And again because this is such a short turnaround at this point, like we're a week away, like and because there's no other sports going, it's not like you lock up your bank ll You're not gonna be able to get your bets down on the NBA playoffs, right like fire fire, fire away, in

my opinion, in terms of price at this point. And you know there are places you know bookmaker will take big limits and you know they still have they have three props up right at the very end of their uh, they're offerings that are all like, well, the Redskins trade the number two pick, No, will they take Chase Young? Yes? Uh, you know, and then you know otherwise you can take you know, set up the exact and in Burrow and uh and and Chase Young and still find some value there.

It's it's a juicy price, but I think that there's probably no better. There really is no other kind of sure thing as you head into this draft cycle than than those guys going on too. Um A couple of points there. One, you're right, I mean, it gets to your point about, oh, you can bet the Chase Young thing and multiple whole waves even at one book alone. Also just sort of side note a little disappointed in bookmaker.

They had some other draft crops up last week and the week before, and it kind of disappeared to never come back. Um. Yeah, I don't know what they're that's about. Yeah, they were taking last I remember from the cycle last year. Um, they definitely were slow and kind of tepid in terms of putting their foot into the water in terms of offering. But once you got to the couple of days before, they were taking pretty big limits, bigger limits than you

could get at some of the other offshore offerings. So um, worth keeping an eye on them because they'll throw some stuff back up, I bet, and they'll give you a pretty healthy shot at it um as we get closer. A great point about that, all right. So I was gonna jump ahead to number four here before really diving

into three, five and beyond. Um, maybe I should anyway, But you said something there about four and the Giants, which I had to kind of written off as not not as much of a lock of Burrow to the Bengals and Young to the Redskins. Certainly not and certainly not a specific player. But I kind of had decided this is not just me decide it based on all the mocks that this is an offensive tackle. You still think it's an offensive tackle or how sure of that

are you? Yeah? No, I put a good, good example you can if you wanted to try to dial in on the Giants. There are markets for will they take an offensive or defensive player? And I think the offensive player beyond just the fact that it makes the most sense given where they've invested their top you know, their top investments in the draft in the last two years, and a young quarterback and a young running back like Gettleman needs these guys to succeed or he's no longer

going to be the Giants GM. So taking you know, a top tier taking the best tackle off the board, um is kind of you know is you know? And again I don't want to go back and lead it too well. These guys should do this, so they will, because that will get you in deep trouble if you

put too much in that mindset. Um. But you know, you know, you know, Gettleman invested a ton, and I guess this week in some of the interviews some of the comments he has made, he basically you know, has kind of pointed to the fact that they invested a ton of their draft capital through free agency into the defensive side of the ball. UH, and he be laboring

that point. I think was him tipping his hand out bit in terms of how they intend to allocate their draft capital towards, UH, the offensive line and some of the other uh, you know, some of the other holes that still exist on that team. Granted, best player available, maybe a guy like Simmons. UM. You know, people may want Simmons to end up in New York just because he's such a dynamic talent. He could be an exciting guy of cover uh from you know, from a media standpoint.

But you know, I think the boring pick and quote unquote boring pick in terms of taking one of the best offensive lineman is is where they end up going. Prices around are kind of in the minus one fifty range for taking an offensive player. I would have made it in the minus two fifty range. So I think there is some pretty good value still on betting Giants take an offensive player. UM. And then it comes down to how they evaluate these three guys that are at

the top of the tackle market. It's you know, I definitely hear from you know, scouts, from evaluators that they think, you know, that there's a clear one in uh, you know, and a guy like or you know, a clear one in terms of ceiling, and a guy like Beckton, and a clear one in terms of floor, and a guy like like Willis. But then you know the measurables, which is kind of Ben Gettleman's tailtale throughout his entire run as the GM like he just falls in love with

guys who pop off the numbers at the combine. And that's pretty clearly works. So if I had to take one stab, it would be works. But uh, you know, we we still need to see Gettleman tip his hand on this one, I think, all right. And for those are wonder like, why did you go from two to four there? Uh, the reason is because the Giants being locked into an offensive line. And again, unless you believe the Simmons stuff, but being locked into an offensive lineman

allows for all the speculation of what's to come. Um drew their pesky commercials here, so I'd rather than jump into it right now. We'll we'll do it after the break. But when we do come back, we'll talk to Drew Dinsick about what will the Lions do at number three? Because that's really where the draft begins. If you're to believe the borough Um Chase Young exact at the top. Do the Lions take Jeoffrey Akuta, a guy that we've

said on the show here on a Numbers game. If you're playing the draft game Lions, you probably could draft him a little later. Um. But do they love him so much that they would take him obviously to fill the Darius Slay absence? Or do they make a trade and if so, who do they make it with? Are the Dolphins of the team to trade down after failing to tank? Are the Chargers so interested in one of those two guys to or Herbert that they would be

willing to trade up? All of these questions that Drew's thoughts and more will to be a run on offensive lineman early and then wide receivers after that. Drew dinsa coming back on a Numbers Game at Visa the Sports Betting Network, Preston Johnson to come as well, and we'll throw up my draft props at some phere here on the show as well. Coming back and f l Draft

on a Numbers Game and Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Jill Alexander back on the Numbers game GIL Alexander live from San Francisco, where sports betting analytics live here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. By the way, join us for the Visa twenty Draft Special live next Thursday, April so, eight days away now at eight p m Eastern five pm Pacific. Our draft bet casting experts Matt Humans, Michael Lombardi, Brent Musburger, Jonathan von Tobel and other special

guests landalize the draft from a unique betting perspective. Of course, they'll track all the available all the available props, that is, as each selection is made, and alert you when they cash, of course, all through a betting prism. Check out the Visa Draft Special Live Thursday a p m. Eastern five pm Pacific, right here on Visa and the Sports Betting Network. My guest Drew dinsit kind enough to spend the hours the hour rather with us talking NFL Draft. So number

three then, Drew, let's get right to it. The Lions are sitting there, Darius Lay no longer with the team. Jeffrey Akuta from Ohio State is sitting out there. What do you do? What do you do? Oh? Man? Um? And if I'm in that room, I am. I'm I've

been preparing to trade this pick all winter. Uh, and now I'm looking around wondering, you know, if I'm going to get an offer, if we're gonna be able to evaluate the offer in time, or if we're just going to have to end up, you know, taking the best player or you know, top player on our board phill a need even though he may not be the best

player available. That's kind of the quandry they find themselves in. Uh. And this happens year and year out where you have a team that's you know, kind of on the cusp of the shore fire, no doubt talent in this case, the top two being Burro and Chase Young. Uh. And you know, you think, okay, well, this should be a power position for these guys, right like, they should have

a lot of leverage. They should have a lot of chips because there are teams behind them, and you know, picks five and six notably that absolutely have a need at quarterback for the future where the as the Lions are well set up in that standpoint, and so you should be able to leverage those teams into giving up some assets getting some extra picks out of this because guess what, the lines have more holes than just cornerback.

They have lots of whole life. This is a team that is devoid of talent on the defensive side of the football. Uh and uh, you know this is this would be the type of time to you know, flip this pick, get some assets. But I don't know, I have a very very you know, a very very skeptical viewpoint of how likely trades are going to be in

this draft. I think it's it's it's such a complicated, like such a hectic, complicated ten minutes when you're getting offers and evaluating you know, the earth and what you'll do with those picks, and you know, it's you know, if they had gotten its sorted out in a couple of days beforehand, that would be one thing. But to expect it to happen in the moment, I think is

is pretty you know, pretty pretty tough, ask um. And that's do you think Drew that the that the nature you know, we you and I were talking about this allfair a little. Do you think the nature of of the pandemic and the fact that we're all doing this remotely this year makes it even more likely that in action will rule the day in action. Yeah. No, I think there's a number of hypotheses that hold water, and one of them for sure is that you'll have fewer trades.

And I think it's born entirely out of the fact that draft rooms will be spread across, you know, spread across the country, everybody contributing remotely, and you know, it's it's I still think that it's not out of the realm of possibility that a team like the Chargers knows the guy they want is also at the top of the draft board for the for the Dolphins, and that they may give up the King's Ransom to move up

to three. With the lines, that's still a realistic possibility in that scenario, I do not expect that they would go up for Herbert. I mean, for for two, I would expect they go up for Herbert. Uh. And that's the one kind of outstanding scenario that I have in the back of my head that I'm kind of catching against. But I do at the end of the day, I don't think that they're going to be able to have

enough assets to trump whatever Miami can offer. Miami has so much draft capital this year, they are in such a power position they can pretty much squash whatever the Chargers offer, which I think de incentivizes the Chargers from you even trying to offer. Uh. And I think the Lions end up taking taking Okuda, whether or not he's the player, the right player at that spot, or just fills the glaring hole that is created by the move of Sleigh. I do think that's where they end up.

I I land on the same thing with that. You and I are sympatico there. I just think the Lions end up taking Occuda. And by the way, if the Chargers do trade up to draft Herbert or two, but I'm with you, probably would be Herbert if they did that. That goes against everything that Anthony Lynn has been saying to date, which is not Tyrod Taylor is our guy. But we know it's lying season, so uh, anybody to

their word at this point, Anthony Lynn or otherwise. I've got to take a break here, Drew will come back. I do want to talk about how what you feel the Dolphins and Chargers then, in fact, do at five or six do they just stand bad? Uh? And are the Chargers if we know that about Anthony Lynn saying that about Tyrod Taylor, are they absolutely going to pick

a quarterback. We've kind of penciled in to her Herbert and Nanny order there at five or six, maybe Dot coming back Drew Dinsick NFL Draft right here in a numbers game at Basently Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Quick Picks Classic offers real body matchups of pro sports superstars from their greatest seasons, playable and quick Picks head to head par lay game. New NBA matchups posted every hour and for those asking,

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at Visa the Sports betting Network. Gal Alexander talking NFL Draft. So, uh, if the Giants then go with an offensive line and at four or whether it's Tristan Worths from Iowa or whomever, because it will be a bit of a offensive tackle heavy top ten, I'm guessing what then, ultimately do you think happens with the Dolphins and the Chargers at five or sick? And just before the break, I just sort of threw out the thing about do we know that

the Chargers are absolutely drafting a quarterback? Because I mean, Cam still out there right. I was asking Michael Lombardi about this yesterday, like what did they take a tackle?

And then you know, like then they have Cam? Like are they not a top five talent you know, talent laden team in the NFL at that point, I don't know what are your thoughts of five or six, and then there's two by the to and the Dolphins have been this kind of media narrative that's gone on for now what six months, you know, taking you know, going back to the Dolphins getting their clocks cleaned by the Ravens. I feel like people were like up thinking for Tua,

thanking for Ta. Ta was the number one on draft boards last April, right like he was expected to kind of be the guy in number one Heisman favorite, right like, you know, there there's there's a lot of legacy here that I think has carried perception that he is still the supervaluable asset in the face of a lot of evidence that teams are not going to take a chance

on him given his injury status. I don't think it can be understated how significant this injury was, and I don't think that the smoke that has come kind of been you know, uh easy, you can't you can't miss it if you're following the NFL media, you know, this last couple of weeks, like you know, teams are really you know, skeptical about how serious this injury is, how long he's going to be able to play in the NFL,

and you know, are those evaluations correct. That's not what we're here to talk about, Like we're here to talk about, you know, this big enough injury to scare teams from really can pulling the trigger on a guy that otherwise clearly has the talent to be a you know, franchise quarterback in the top five pick um, you add a little bit of kind of uh, you know, a little bit more intrigue to this question in this equation when you start to see it here, evaluations from players like

Gil Brand from you know, from personnel guys like Gil Brand from you know, guys who are connected to the Dolphins, you know, connected to their general manager, who are like, now, this guy is more in the bill parcels mold of general manager. He wants a tall, kind of measurable quarterback that they can mold, you know, And that's a justin Herbert like pretty clearly. And so there's a lot of signs, there's a lot of breadcrumbs here that tell you that

the Dolphins you know, prefer Herbert Um. And in which case you know that you have to wonder if any of you know, you know, if any of the uh you know, leverage that the Dolphins have over the Chargers is really to get you know, they want to get their guy and Herbert as opposed to you know, just taking we know, we don't really care. We wait at Herbert and two on the same level, and we'll take

either one of those. So, UM, I would say that there is enough smoke and enough bread crumbs here for me to have gotten involved earlier when the prices were you know, we're completely upside down on this. Um. Less than a week ago, you could have gotten Herbert as the second quarterback overall in the plus three hundred plus four hundred range. You could have gotten To as the

third quarterback overall in the plus eight hundred range. Um. You know, that's basically telling you that there was like an eight percent chance that you were to get to and then Herbert. And as you look at it now, with the information you have in front of you, does that sound even remotely close to reality? I don't think.

I mean, yeah, best, um, and so, uh you know, I go, I kind of stick to a couple of tenants that I think, you know, I've kind of kept me out of trouble and drafts the last couple of years had got me into trouble in drafts previous year's betting.

And that's you know, when you have kind of a guy that you feel like it is going to be good in the NFL and you kind of in your mind, have you know him at a certain tier or a certain rating UM, and then you know there is any kind of an injury red flag, These guys fall like

stones when it comes to draft day. And you can point to a number of kind of the best bets that I've made in the draft prop market last two years, and it was literally finding smoke from more than one team on an injury that a guy you know that that they had red flag the guy for injury, and you know that that sort of mindset becomes viral. Uh you know, no pun intended, uh and uh you know, and the next thing you know, you know, you have everyone in the in the league is afraid to touch

the guy. And you know, so I think to A absolutely falls into that category right now, which I think leads the Dolphins to making the safer pick with Justin Herbert at five. UM. Again, you know this is I'm not saying it's more likely than fifty fifty um. But certainly the way that this has been priced over the last month has been, uh, you know, completely upside down in my opinion. So you do think in the end,

Dolphins with two. That's what I'm Harry. I don't know, I'm thinking her I think, I mean, I mean Herbert. I think I think I think they go Herbert. And some of that is is speculation based on the general manager and his connections to the Bill Parcels tree and the type of quarterbacks that they tend to uh, they tend to score higher on, so that some of that is speculative. Um, But I think her you know, I

think Herbert at five is has has legs. You made such a great point off air, because I you know, when we're talking about a guy dropping, and obviously the most famous modern day example is Aaron Rodgers dropping all the way down into the twenties when he came out of school. And I'm not saying two is going to

go that far down. But you made a great point of fair which is sometimes it's just as simple as the reason he drops is not because people don't like that individual, just like they haven't prepped to draft a quarterback. They've talked about all these other player years for months on the lead up, and so that player just by default kind of trickles down. Um. I think it's as simple and as good a point on that. We don't often hear that in mainstream meeting where it's like, yeah,

I just didn't really plan on this is happening. We gotta take, you know, it's like it's that stupid one more break here. Drew will come back because I do want to hone in on six and then will the offensive tackle run continue? I guess if number four was one, will there be a couple more here coming off the board? Drew Den Sick at Whale Underscore Capper. We'll talk about

his podcast as well. We'll plug that coming back from the break right here at a numbers game on Visa these Sports Betting that we welcome back to a numbers game with you know, Alexander, it is a numbers game Bill Alexander Live from San Francisco. Drew Den Sick at Whale Underscore Capper Live from U the outdoors and beautiful Long Beach, California. I said something right before the break, which was actually there you go take a big three.

I love that old cartoon victory signal, Um, I said before the break, and I was talking about you actually saying it during the prior break, about this notion of sometimes when a player falls, it's just kind of as simple as we really hadn't been talking about him. We haven't done our due diligence. You wanted to flush that out a little more as it pertains to draft. Absolutely, And you know we were on the Chargers and your points were very sound in the previous segment, like they

have gone above and beyond in terms of padding. Uh, you know, to Rod Taylor on the back, I mean to a degree that seems ridiculous. No one, no one loves Rod Taylor that much, even Anthony Lynno. Can you know, can can you know? You know, professors love to whatever

degree he wants. But I don't know that he's fooling anyone. Um. And you're right also, and that the Chargers have a team outside of quarterback that is rostered to compete for a championship, Like this team is stacked, especially on defense, and like they only really have the one hole at quarterback. Uh, you know, maybe you know the offensive line is not great they can use some help on the offensive line.

And clearly this is a draft where you know, in the top ten you can take an elite talent and for for the offensive line, but you know that that quarterback position is a huge question mark. And oh, by the way, they're moving into a brand new stadium uh in Englewood, and they are having an extremely difficult time selling tickets for their you know, this new endeavor. So the idea that they come out of this draft with a quarterback of the future and can really sell this

to the fans, I guess the fans. I mean I live in Los Angeles and I supposedly they're around, but I certainly don't see them. Um, but if they it's as if they abandoned their fan base in San Diego or something. You know, you can hear everyone in San Diego go ahead and nuts right now. It is And you know, hey, they were like, hey, people in l A. They watched the Chargers. Well, it's because they're they're on

because they're on TV. It's not because they love the Chargers. Sorry, um, but yeah, the you know, the the idea that you have you come out of this draft with a quarterback. If you're the Chargers is pretty appealing in terms of being able to sell your you know, the future of

the franchise here. Um, But if your only choice, if you can't make a trade up to three, if you can't get ahead of the Dolphins, and then the Dolphins take Herbert, who uh you know you had penciled in as you know, was gonna fall to you at six, you know, do you pull the trigger on a risky asset like toa And that is an enormously important question. If to it does not go at six, where does

he go? The free fall could be absolutely epic. And all of this is predicated on what we were talking about just a minute ago, you know, like the preconception in January, February, and March for every team in the NFL was that too was going to go potentially top three. So if you weren't expected to, you know, you you kind of make a decision like, okay, well how do we feel about to Ah, Well, we're okay at the

quarterback position. We're not going to give up our entire draft of assets to move up to three to take him.

So we're out of the two again, let's focus on the other you know, five players that are available, right, and so you allocate your resources in terms of preparation to the guys that you think you have a reasonable chance will be on the board when you are picking, and you may not be dedicating your you know, your time and your effort to evaluating a guy like to throw a monkey mention too, this and that the entire you know, coronavirus quarantine has you know, prevented you know,

teams that are in the quarterback market from doing full medical evaluations of him. And you have kind of cooked up the absolute worst case cocktail for this young band, which is really sad because you know, in any other year this may be a very different outcome. But you know, I think the reality of you know, him falling out of the top six is real. And if that happens, where does he land? I mean, you know, we've we've

we mentioned it. But you know, a team like the you know, the Raiders could use a quarterback for the future. But you know, we've gotten Mike Mayock on record as saying it's been you know the most difficult part of this entire process has been you know, not having medical evaluations and our medical team not getting the information. Yeah, so if you can't you know, if you're if you're there on the you know, if you if if you know,

pick twelve comes up. You've been preparing this entire cycle for which of these three wide receivers are we the most excited about because we need a wide receiver. Uh? And then oh, by the way, you know, you know, a guy that could be the best quarterback of this draft falls into your lap at twelve. You know, do you pull the trigger on him if you're the Raiders

or is it too risky of a decision? And you know, it's it's it kind of comes down to what you know, what we were saying, which is that you may just have not had you may not have enough information in hand in house through you. Your scouts, haven't your medical team hasn't gotten their work that they needed to get done on this guy, and therefore you have to pass

on him. And I think you know, you look back to the Aaron Rodgers draft and the fact that he felt a twenty four and how you know how prolonged that slide was. Uh. You know, that wasn't like a Johnny Man's l type of slide where every team had kind of had their chance to think about it and decided not to pull the trigger. That was much more of Oh well, actually we thought Rogers was going to go number one, so we didn't really do our homework on them. Uh, and that that that ended up, you know,

fighting a lot of teams in the acts. I just think it's such an interesting dynamic. I mean, you think about teams like the Jaguars, who you know, many think are tanking for Trevor. Right, all of a sudden, if two of falls in their lap at nine, They're like they have ten minutes to basically decide on their legacy as as personnel, you know, decision makers, It's like what

do we do? Uh? Same thing with the Raiders, as you point out, So if the Chargers don't let so Herbert goes to Miami, let's say your hunches that the Chargers go offensive tackle. Then does that begin the offensive tack goal run or not begin it but continue it? So I made I made a play that too. It was going to fall out of the top six at plus seven. Uh. And you know, you know, you know how this goes when you when you get when you get a number like that, and now I'm looking at

that online. Now has that now has field over top six at plus you know, plus two twenty five. So that's come way in on top of the Now that's

that's that's absolutely wild. And you know, but I don't think this is is unrealistic at all, um, and if it, you know, but it's the same same kind of thing, like you know, when you get like just an outrageously good number in the futures market or something like that, like you know, or let's say you went, you know, you went with Joe Burrow for Heisman last year in August, right and something. You know, he goes through the first couple of games and he just shows out and all

of a sudden, you know, you see his number. You have a hundred one in your pocket, and now you know they're they're reopening the market and it's you know, you know, five to one or whatever. Right, Like it's tough not to um, you know, use you know, cognitive biases start kicking in and you're like, oh no, no, just definitely gonna happen totally. You get all of this confirmation bias just watches over you and you're like, this is definitely gonna happen now, um, isn't it? Yeah? Yeah, yeah,

so I'm I'm fighting that. I'm fighting that cycle right now with two is going to fall right, because I have I have a pretty good amount kind of spread out on Herbert going second to a going third quarterback, taken Herbert's second quarterback to a third quarterback, and then to a falling out of the top six are all are all in my portfolio with some pretty nice positions. So at this point, I'm just trying to say, Okay, well,

you know, I'm gonna let this market go bananas. It's gonna completely flip upside down, and I'm gonna take some scalps before we get to draft ded because I don't want to be in this position where I have all of this value and let it go to waste. Because I've convinced myself that it's that it's for sure going to happen. So I'm a little I'm walking on eggshells

about around in this right topic right now. But um so I'm prepared for but if to a but to answer your original question, if to the two, A dozen go six, what do the Chargers do? Uh? They take the best tackle off the board, And honestly, this I think sets up for a tackle run in the top ten as you kind of alluded to earlier, because um, you know, I see teams at six, I see teams at eight, nine, and ten who all could use help

on the offensive line. Uh and uh. I think actually really this sets up for um, you know, just an offensive line heavy first round overall, which would be which would be another nice position to take in my opinion as we head into this draft, just over five and a half offensive lineman. I have a I'm pretty overweight on that one. Yeah, there's a there's some props out there. You can see that five and a half. There's something you can see it at six and a half. That's

that could go either way. Some people think they'll be more than six and a half. Just to get back to Daniel Jeremiah, for I cons we brought him up earlier. He's got to a going at six, which it should be noted in his three point it was the first time he had Herbert and to a flip flopped. He then has Derek Brown going to Carolina at the defensive tackle from Auburn at seven. Uh. Number eight, talk about the offensive lineman. Now back to the offensive lineman, Jedderick

Wills from Alabama going to Arizona. They obviously want line help for their young quarterback Kyler Murray, and of course their new acquisition DeAndre Hopkins is a target. Makes sense to go after an offensive lineman. Mackay becked in Jeremiah has penciled in for the Jags at number nine, backing from Louisville of course, and then rounding out the top ten. I think this is very interesting. Isaiah Simmons. You talk about a guy that falls into a team's lap. I mean,

Isaiah Simmons. I don't want to call him generational, but like there's kind of a scenario and if he ends a bit Cleveland, that's a real good spot for him. Yeah, as football fans, that's what we should all be rooting for because that makes the sounds Ravens games over the next five years must see TV twice a year, right like that as it as absolutely perfect stopper. I mean you you can remember back when you know Lamar Jackson

was a rookie. Uh, they go up against the Charger Derwin James just completely you know, wiped him off the map for three quarters. Like that's the kind of player Isaiah Simmons is. In my opinion. I see a lot of a lot of similarities between what Simmons can do and what Derwin James can do. Uh. And so you know, you know, Cleveland obviously desperately needs offensive tackle help. And I think a lot of the mock drafts you see them, you see you know, them slotting best available offensive tackle

to Cleveland. Uh. And that's probably the most likely scenario. But if a guy like Simmons falls in their lap, um, that's that's a match made in heaven for football fans worldwide. So I'm I'm pulling for that personally. Um, that's a great point. Facing him twice a year. Good, It's such

such a good matchup. But you know, there's I do see Carolina at seven as a potential landing spot for Simmons just because they lose Keik Lee and Simmons you can potentially plug in as a linebacker, and I don't they're not the same player, obviously, they're very different in terms of skill set. But you know, I I could see that happening as well. Drew, let me bounce in. We'll take a break, we'll come back. We'll get more specifically into some of the bets you've made some that

you're eyeing will throw up mine. I'll talk about where I think I may have gotten torpedoed certain category. I'm not feeling that great about coming back NFL Draft with Drew Dinsic on a numbers game at Visa and these sports Betting network. It's a numbers game with your host,

Jil Alexander. Believe in analytics. It is a numbers game, our number two, Gill Alexander, right here live in San Francisco, our San Francisco outpost here on the network series XM Channel two, O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Phobos Link game plus Drew Dinsick kind enough, I imposed uh kind enough to stick around for one uh more segment with us to wrap things up about the NFL Draft. So before we get into specific prop bets, Drew, if you would, so, let's just run through them one through

ten again. This is the Drew Dinsic mock. Again. This has nothing to do with um anything but how it feels right now. But it's Burrow at one to the Bengals. It's Chase Young uh two to the Redskins. Uh. We talked about Jeffrey ol Couda going to the House stated how three four, and then Herbert at five. What do you got after that? Yeah, I don't mind slotting two a six, just to kind of a sperm an emotional hedge on top of you know, it makes sense that

the Chargers come out of this with a quarterback. Uh. And then after that, I like Uh, I like Brown to Carolina at seven. I like Beckton at eight. I think fits scheme wise a little bit better. With Arizona, they will more likely go Beckton than Wills, And then Wills I think goes nine to um to Jacksonville. Jacksonville obviously all in on h Gardner Minshew this year. That makes sense. He's on such a team friendly contract you find out this year. If he's your guy, that's great.

You know you got him lockdown on an unbelievably team friendly contract for a couple of years. If he's not your guy, you're at the top of the draft next year, picking a guy like Trevor Lawrence with the quarterback of the future, so that all checks out. Uh. And then at ten, UM, I think uh. I think you get a tough call here between Simmons and uh uh and reaching for a next tier offensive tackle like Andrew Miller. Um, but uh, you know, I'd like to see Simmons go.

I could see Andrew Miller. I'll slot Simmons in there just as a fan standpoint. So pretty similar to what DJ has up in his mock three point. Oh is is kind of informed most of my betting on this top ten. Yeah, and then I guess the run on wide receivers begins thereafter. I suppose, Um, yeah, how many wide receivers first round? In second round? I mean, yeah, let's talk about that, actually, because I think there's been a there may be a betting value on underwide receivers

at this point. Um, we've seen this in years past where there are so many good options and running backs fall in this category. To this can be the same kind of conversation. I think running backs and wide receivers. For this draft, I see a pretty clear tier one for wide receivers in the top three. That's that's that's unimpeachable. Right. There's gonna be you know, three of these guys who are gonna go between three between eleven and twenty at

least between eleven and twenty two. When the when the Eagles pick, you're going to see all three guys go right, and so Jody Lamb and rugs you're referring to you got it. Uh. And then after that you have kind of Jefferson in a tier by himself as sort of one b uh and then uh at. But beyond that all of these guys Higgins I uh, and then down the list from there another seven guys yeah, mims. Yeah. These guys are all on tier two and they're more

or less indistinguishable. And when that happens, that tends to de incentivize teams to reach teams to trade up and uh, and teams think that, Okay, well, you know we're gonna address a position of scarcity rather than go and take a wide receiver now when you know we have another pick coming up in you know, twenty picks or so, and you know we can just take a guy there. So there are there are clear needs for wide receivers

in this year's draft. UM. The wide receiver marketing free agency was extremely soft, I felt, and I think that that was borne out of the fact that so many teams are coming into this draft expecting to take wide

receivers early. UM. But I think you could see more going round two than round than than I think you could see more in round two just on the basis of teams aren't going to need to you know, they aren't going to force it, um, and they may choose other positions where, uh, you know, talent is a little bit more scarce. Cornerback is comes to mind immediately. There offensive tackle as well, there's about you know, there are kind of two clear tiers of offensive tackles in my opinion,

and after that it falls off dramatically. Um. So if you get one of the top six tackles, if you need one of the top six tackles, you're gonna take one of them in the first round. So I could see a situation where we only see four or five wide receivers in round one, which may creates some value on under five and a half wide receivers. But I'm gonna wait until that number it gets a little bit bigger before I jump in. Gil Alexander Drew DINSI here on a numbers game at Visa the Sports betting network

talking NFL Draft. Um, that's a great point about wide receivers, man, it is really true, Like, yes, there's a whole bunch of them, but after the first four, is there any one of them that is so much better than any of the others that teams are as, to use your word, super incentivized to to draft one of them as high as they might otherwise. It's a great point, and what makes these drafts so interesting when you get down further in them. Let's go back to the top four a second.

I was making this point with Michael Lombardi, host of the Lombardi Line here at Visa yesterday, which was every year, you know, we tend to forget the the inexact science of this. Every year in recent history, Drew, there has been a shocker at the top of the draft, in the in the top five picks, some more shocking than others. Right, So there was you know, even Baker Mayfield at number one.

People forget until the last twenty hours, like he was not the number one pick in the draft, right, So like that even in the in the short lead up, became a bit of a surprise that he ended up number one to the Browns. Obviously, Mitch Drobiskie the Bears trading up to number two to grab him after thirteen starts at North Carolina was a shocker. Joey Bosa went

way higher to the Chargers than everyone had projected. And then even last year, right Farrell going to the Raiders at four or was like, whoa, what what are they doing? Like no one had that are we missing something here?

Like might we be missing something? Yeah, we might be. Um, we could see the one thing that's been in the back of my head that I have not made any action on that I'm scared about, uh because it would wipe out a bunch of bets that I have is if the Lions, If the Lions take a quarterback, we could see a scenario where Stafford gets dealt. I think, Um, that's this is a team that isn't built to win. Now,

Stafford is on a pretty big contract. There are teams out there like the Chargers, like the Patriots that I feel like would could make a deal for a guy like Stafford. Um, in which case you could see the

Lions take take Herberd or take two or whoever they prefer. Uh. And you know this, it may be that they may talk themselves into this because they're not getting the you know, the type of deal that they're expecting for the third overall pick, and they may just say, okay, look like a lot of guys in the Lions organization really need to reset the clock to save their jobs, and a very good way to do that would be to basically

start over at the quarterback position. So I'm a little you know that if there's something totally bananas that happens that would totally shake up the top ten of the draft, I think it's at the Lions pick at three. Man, A shutter just went through me, like if something just blows up, all of this, all of this tongue is

just rendered completely mood. Um all right, let yeah, that's that's a you know, stranger things, man, Stranger things, um, danny, if we could throw up my the ones that I've bet so far globally, these are all from bookmaker, just to be specific where I bet these. Uh, this is what I bet so far, by the way, not all

of them, because I don't know if we listed. The very first thing that I bet was actually under four and a half quarterbacks when Caesar's first released it and they limited me drew as I famously talked about on air, to a three hundred dollar wager not to win three hundred dollars, but three hundred dollars to win less on under four and a half quarterbacks. Um, that's all another story.

But these are the ones um with a bit higher limits than that, although not much more higher, by the way, it should be pointed out, these aren't like massive bets that are allowed, but to the degree that you can bet him and Nickel here and Nickel there, which pick will change? Young be drafted under two and a half.

That was my first bet uh far away places back in March March that, as you point out, probably good value at this point in minus five fifty and then a whole sluvable on April fet total players drafted by Bama in the first round. I actually went to six on this, so I took a flyer at plus one hundred. I could easily lose that one if McKinney doesn't get drafted. UM. Total players from ellis you drafted in round one. Feel very good about the under five and a half. Total

players from a house stay drafted. Feel very good about the under two and a half despite the juice as I see it, being young and Akuda and that's it. Total players from Clemson drafted over one and a half. I think you could get as many as three total players from Georgia drafted round one. UM, that one may fall by the wayside because I don't know if DeAndre Swift is gonna get drafted, so I may lose that one. There total players from Auburn drafted under one and a half.

Feel good about that, although of course all none of these are locks. Here's where it gets into sort of teams versus conference more first round picks. I took a flyer on Bama versus the Big Ten. Now, I was talking to you off air, and one of the things that I've realized here in the run up is may Achilles in this draft may end up being the Big Tent. I may have underestimated the Big Ten in the first round,

but I have Alabama big plus money. We'll see I do like Clemson in a straight up versus Oklahoma, UM two or three Clemson players I think to Oklahoma players total players are Big Tent drafted a round one under five and a half, I may lose that more first round picks a CC versus Pack twelve. I took a c C minus a half most first round picks or more first round picks. Clemson versus ol House State. I took Clemson plus a half at minus one nine UM

So those are all my picks. I feel great about a bunch of them, not so great about a few. As I pointed out, mm hmm, I'm in agreement with a lot of those picks. I mean, you have enough value from early on that you're at least going to be able to capture you know, you can at least cover your steak if you if you like, And I'm with you on this Georgia bet and maybe be fun to kind of pick pick your brain a little bit on what to do now because this has moved in

your direction a lot. And in general, you know, do you have a strategy for um? You know, when you make a bet like Georgia over one and a half at minus one twenty, it's currently market wide and about minus two hundred right now, Um, you know you can come back on uh and capture you know, basically buy out of that and get but get some you know, some winnings accumulated, Like are you would are you going to take any of the liability off on any of these place? I think on that Georgia one, I may

just try to get off it. Yeah. Um, And that's one thing with you. I'm with you. I'm I'm prepping right now for that because I I do agree like Swift if Yeah, well, at the time I made the bed, I thought Swift had a chance, and I thought the other offensive tackle that they you know, the guys an underclassman, and I thought he was going to shoot up as we got closer and closer. But you know this, the quarantine has completely, uh you know, stunted a ton of

the like late risers. Like it used to be, you could kind of look through the underclassman every year and pick out a bunch of guys that were going to be late risers. Um. As you know, teams kind of did their homework and figured out like, oh wait, this guy should be a first round grade. We just you know, we didn't you know, we weren't prepared to evaluate him. And now he's a late riser. Right. Well, you know, there's Isaiah Wilson, I think the guy, the second offensive

tackle from Georgia besides Andrew Miller. He might be better actually as a pro maybe a better prospect, but h and I thought it was a chance he could sneak into around one if Swift fell um and so I took a swing on that Georgia. But now now I'm looking at it, and you know, running backs man at the top tier for one through five, there's such little separation between talent between one and five. Why would you why would you waste a first round pick on one?

I just can't imagine it. And that amazing like telling our our child self, you know this running back thing that's so big now, it's just not gonna matter that much when you're an adult because the incredible how the game is changed. What are your favorite props that you have in pocket right now? Drew, So by far make or Break for me will be the sixth offensive linemen on the off the board for this whole traps. The

entire thing will down to that, the entire thing. If only five offensive linemen go on day one, I could win every other bed and I'm still going to have a losing day. So that that's uh, that's what I'm the most jack before before you before you continue with that, you know one of the things and I try to be as authentic as possible on this show, which is to be authentic. Is It's amazing what I'm getting, what

I've been saved from this year. I'm not in the state of Nevada, so I wasn't able to bet certain things where my first instinct was like, oh, I gotta bet this, And my first instinct on the offensive lineman was actually unders on six and a half's couldn't bet them, um, and I'm glad now. The other thing was there was a there's a profit circa will two players get drafted consecutively from the same song? What was that? What was

this price? Well? No, so the no here's my My instinct at first was the no was ten to one, right, and this was when I was in the acuda might get you know, they might trade that pick thing, and so the no attend to one. I was actually like, oh I wish I was in Nevada, could bet the tend of one. By the way, within a half an hour,

the know had gone down to six to one. And I wouldn't have bet it anyway at that point because at two or three, right, two and three, there's the chase young Okuda Kinniella to use a highlight term, that's sitting right there. But you're right, like it was the send out was priced wrong either way. Yeah, I didn't know it opened at ten to one, even at six to one. I stared at that a long time. Yesterday, I was so funny would both gravitated doors the same one.

It's because the price, it just didn't make sense, like it there's like what is because you look at a price like that in the draft market and you're basically like they're pricing a short thing, like who is the short thing that two teammates go back to back in this draft? Like if it's not Chase Young and Okuda, Like you really, I mean you think you could see Judy and uh and and Rugs go. I guess you

could see Rugs and maybe another Alabama player. You can see what was the linebacker from l s U and Jefferson could go in the But but the likelihood there's no locks, no lock definitely, So yeah, no, I I saw, I saw what you saw, and I honestly I still may take a swing at plus six hundred because you know, if it's if it's not two three Ohio State, uh, you know it's gonna it's gonna it's like it's you basically, if if anyone else besides Okuda, and you can and

I already have Ocuda goes third at it like plus two hundred ish, so I can take a swing at plus six hundred. Uh, and then if he doesn't go third at that point, you it's a lot of ticket. Like I just I don't see the balls bouncing in a way that is a sure thing that they're going to be two teammates back to back. That's that I saw thee I saw the tender one and I actually stared at it, and I probably texted three or four people and I was like, do you have any money

in your circuit account? I couldn't. Nobody came up with it. I was like, all right, But by the time I got around there was six and one. I was like, all right, maybe I'm not I took, I took, I took the screensho out of that. I sent it to three different group text I was like, what am I missing? Like? What was like something? And I did not talk about this before the show. People should know that we did

not talk about it before the show. Yeah. No, no, no, no. But overall, though the um first sure my my most overweight on offensive lineman. If this, if six and a half gets built some steam to the over I'm very hopeful that happens in the next couple of days because I would love to come back on under six and a half at close to even even odds and cover some of my liability on that, and then I can have a total total risk free, stress free day one

that will be fantastic. So that's figures crossed there. Um. C J. Henderson shooting up draft boards across the mock draft space. Uh he is. His total was sixteen and a half I fully subscribed to. Uh. You know his four is pick sixteen to the to the Falcons, entirely possible that somebody in the tend to and they all eleven to sixteen range takes him. He fits with the Broncos for a need standpoint, if the top three wide

receivers go before the Broncos get to pick. So I could see, uh, I could see Henderson get get picked in in the top sixteen about any percent of the time. And there's still some value to his under sixteen and a half. You're looking at one forty one right now at draft Kings. That's a that is a slam dunk because market market some of the market making books have him closer in right now for sixteen and a half. Um,

So that's a that's a great look. Um. And then comparison we have on the screen for C. J. Henderson is Carlos Rogers. She's I hope his hands are better than Carlos Rodgers. And God, that dude drop more picks than anybody over the course of career of of course of the career I've ever seen anyway, Yeah, his his

ceiling is probably picked nine. I can see him going to the Jaguars at the Jaguars because Jaguars, Jaguars could pick any any any position, make you go the most most talented void roster in the NFL, and it's not close. Uh And you know they just need a stockpile sets for next year. Really so um you know that. But I Championship like a minute ago, right, It's it's incredible that it's it's wild how quick these turnover. Um and uh yeah, so that those are those are two. I

especially like the offensive lineman and C. J. Henderson. Um I have uh a we mentioned in the off the top. I have a pretty decent amount on uh Okuda pick three works first offensive lineman because I think there's a reasonable chance that the Giants take him for and if the Giants choose not to have the Giants go Simmons for whatever reason, you still have a live shot that works as the first offensive lineman taken. Um and then uh,

I liked at the prices that I got them. Herbert second quarterback overall at about plus four hundred was was a banger last week. And then to a third quarterback taken at what used to be plus seven hundred, and uh, you know, we're starting to see these, starting to see these. I'm closer to Evan odds, which I think is more reflecting reality. Um, but those are my those are in my pocket right now. And um and then uh, I made a couple of plays that I'm not super psyched about.

We all have those, Yeah, yeah, but out of curiosity, Yeah, okay, Um, you know I bet I bet Deep Brown. I bet Deep Brown under eight and a half. I didn't get a great price. Uh and uh you know at this point, I'm you know, I I had kind of felt like he was the perfect fit for Carolina before I realized that there was a likelihood that Simmons could fall into that seventh spot. But so Dee Brown at under eight and a half is in my pocket. But I'm I'm

feeling pretty nervous about that one. Um. And then we talked about the Georgia too. I bet over one and a half Georgia players. I got that out about minus one twenty and uh, even though that's moved in my direction, I feel like that's a bad play right now and I'm probably gonna buy of that. UM, totally with you on that, and I'm gonna do the same, Drew. I appreciate it. Man, you have been very generous. Uh. It's gonna be fun to look back on these and see how we did. And uh, I don't know if you'll

be live tweeting that night. I know I will be, but should be fun. Eight days. Thank you so much. Enjoy your day, and uh, hopefully next time we talk we can talk about meaningful tennis. Oh yes, thanks, thanks you for having me. Man. This is a tough fun my man, you did