Tuesday morning, April ninth, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast, the eighty eighth Masters tradition, unlike any other from Augusta, first major of the year, as always Skill Alexander joined by a steamed panel of golf experts for the second straight year. Kelly, you might have been on for three years, but for the second straight year the duo here.
That's a great question.
Yeah, we were going through like the history of Beating the Book Masters pod.
This this is only my second year on.
Okay, so you and West both to two thirds of the long shots caring by long shots, I mean there is a podcast, a dedicated golf podcast that Vison has called long Shots, a colloquial colloquially called it's called long shots. Is That's how Matt Brown used to do the promo. Matt Brown too much of a divad to be on the show. It's not true. He's going to Augusta, so
we give him an excuse. But the other two members for a second straight year, the great Wes Reynolds everybody co host of Vison tonight doing Wes, thanks for doing this again.
I'm well, Gil, thanks for having me and.
Congratulations on the future Jaeger fifty to one two weeks ago. Were you on Batilla?
I was not just for a placement market, but he was very well tipped in the market and was able to get at home in that playoff. Now, now, when he heard his shoulder though in the playoff, all I was like.
Man, this is like very tennis. This is exactly hard. Gil.
I was like, man, this is like Ropp and Nadal going to the trainer and like the fourpe said at Roland Garros or something. But nevertheless, he got it home after he got that shoulder taped.
What Wes is referring to. For those who don't know, ak Shee Batilla, who won the Valero Open this past week, had a six shot lead going into the back nine, and then Denny McCarthy went ballistic, birdied ten, part eleven and then birdied twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifty, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and it required Akha Batilla to have a tournament tying
putt on eighteen. It looked like he was going to lose it in regulation, if you will, he sinks the putt and in celebration it was It was a pretty tough putt too. It was not a short butt. In celebration, he pumps his left arm and Batilla what we say, Wes, he weighs what ninety seven ninety eight pounds roughly?
Yeah, he does this, big tall guy, big tall, skinny guy.
It was very It was very grammatica of uh.
Very grammatica. That's why we have Wes on the show for reverences like that. Correct, was that Martin? Just to get my grammatica's correct.
I believe it was Martine Grammatica. Okay, jumped on in the field goal celebration and then stumbled to the ground after that.
That's the right, one of the great moments in NFL celebration history. So anyway, he dis he What we learn on the playoff hole because they go back and play eighteen again is that he's called for a trainer, and Wes is exactly right. This is like every tennis player who falls behind, Oh my leg I need a trainer, just trying to like really like stay time. Sometimes it's legit, and in Batia's case, it was legit, and the announcers
were and I was texting Kelly. Kelly was on the air because he couldn't really get it because he was on the air. I'm texting Kelly. I'm like, the announcers are speculating that he dislo that he heard his shoulder, first heard his shoulder on the celebration, and then I was like, oh my god, it's confirmed. He partially dislocated his shoulder. But it didn't matter in the end because he was still able to hit an approach shot or
the shot before the approach shot. And then McCarthy hid in the creek anyway, and then I'm sure his elbow his shoulder started feeling much better. It's tough to put from the creek, Denny, Yeah, it is, Wes. Let me just before, by the way, that's the voice of Kelly Bidlin. I shouldn't assume that this audience knows who you are. You're like, yeap and like it's the Numbers Games. That's Kelly Biblin, along with Wes Reynolds two thirds of the
long Shots crew. And before I asked Wes this question, the third member of the panel is Sia Najade, who we have on the radio side all the time. Sia is a host and analyst at sports Line and the Monumental Sports Network in Good Old DC, in the dmv uh Sea comes to us. You won't be able to see this, but he has a uh he has a one of the all time very good Santana Moss photo behind him where he's thrown up the twenty one for Sean Taylor Jolways love Sea. Good morning, Thank you for doing this man.
Good morning, listen.
I wish I was on the right side of Batilla for the outright, but I had him for a first round leader at sixty five to one. The reason I bring that up is because it's I have a lot in common with Akhabt. You guys know, I've told this story. I've dislocated my shoulders seven times, like fully dislocated before before the first yeah, before the first of seven playing basketball,
mostly before the first of seven. It would it would go like Oxhays went, where it would pop out but then pop right back in and basically be okay outside of some soreness. So uh, anyway, I could very much relate to that. It was painful for me to watch after I realized what had happened when he was pumping his fist, But yeah, that brought back some gruesome memories for sure.
Seven times.
Is it just like it.
It's gonna happen for the rest of your life, that it's just going to pop out now.
When it's in compromising positions.
Yes, it's usually like you know, playing basketball the football. I put it in an awkward spot, weight gets pushed against it, it comes out. It's very hard to put it back out.
I wasn't gonna ask about the compromise.
Now, are you like falling rigs at this point?
See, I like you against the wall like Mel Gibson style, all badass.
So you know before the before the anti semitism he's talking about.
Yes, yeah, anti semitism.
Yeah.
The first four I was able to put it back in myself. I'm kind of like wiggling into my shoulder. The last three I needed assistance in a very very big way.
Wiggling into your shoulder. Oh man.
And the last thing, I'm sorry, I don't mean to belabor this, but the first the first time that it dislocated was some traumatic event and then it just never corrected.
Well, the first time it dislocated, it popped right back in. That was kind of my high school days where I realized there was a problem, But it wasn't so much of a problem that the tears and all of that stuff inside, like wasn't as big of a deal for it to stay out, so it wasn't fully compromised, and then it became fully compromised, and when it came out, it stayed out.
So wait, does this mean no one can bet on Batilla for the Masters because he qualifies for the Masters with this win? But now, like, if you want it, let's just say if you had an inkling to bet him, And someone pointed out this morning it was a Hasselbauer who was like, if he hadn't qualified, it would have been exactly eighty eight golfers for the eighty eighth Masters, So he fucked that up. Yeah, let's just say that,
what an ass. But if you if you had an inkling to bet him, now would you not because of this situation?
I'll answer this one first, because I don't know about you, guys. He is definitely a guy that I had circled to bet this week. Yet I mean, it's it's a major week. You can always make so many cases for so many guys that yes, Gil, that is pretty much all it took for me to cross off my list.
This week, where I don't really know what his shoulder is doing.
If it's in, it's out, can how easily can it pop back out again? Like see is talking about. So yeah, I did cross him off my list, Wes, Yeah, I don't know. You guys handled him.
Well, yeah, go ahead, let's see. I'm sorry, go ahead. No.
I was just going to say, like, I don't think it's a problem, to be honest with you, because it wasn't fully compromised in the sense of it like being out for a while, that's when you really have to stabilize and you got to worry about the join and the ligaments around the join itself. The fact that he's at a stage where it's popping right back in. It's probably going to be some soreness for a couple of days, but it's actually not going to affect his golf swing
at all. The fact that he had his hand up in a non golf position when he was celebrating that putt, by the way, great putt by him, But that's not a position where you're putting your shoulder in, And therefore, outside of a couple of days of soreness, I actually think he'll be fine with his swing.
Same for you me.
Yeah, well, yeah, I agree with in terms of the diagnosis that Si, having had this injury before, just gave there. But the one thing I will say, because as we're as we're recording this, we're now getting the pairings being released and oh yes, actually he is actually in the apt one of the afternoon groups, which I do wonder because all the top five in the betting, by the way, are in the first the am wave on Thursday, and if we get weather, I think it's going to be
in the afternoon. So I wonder if we're going to get a scenario like we did last year where the afternoon guys are going to have to make up to get this back on time and you know, play twenty eight thirty holes in a day or.
Something like that.
So that's the only thing that I could see that could be a bugaboo on this injury for betf he's got to play a lot of extra golf.
If you get weather in that afternoon wave Thursday.
Watch this bugaboo hip hop record? Who's the artist.
Wes's Destiny's Child? Of course, I think, yeah.
No, but they had a bugaboo too, they had I always thinking of a hip hop record, but yes, that's correct. Okay, yeah, okay, okay, So I want to seize on the weather thing momentarily, but before I do that, because there's going to be the beating the book. Audience may not be as familiar with the Long Shot Screw, but Kelly, Wes and Matt are going to do a live thing for those who happen to listen to this today. They're gonna do a live thing at eleven pm Eastern eight pm Pacific tonight,
which is the Tuesday before the Masters. Don't worry West, it's not actually it's not actually live, Kelly saying, we just say it's live. By the way, I completely thought it was live, and Kelly like, burst my bubble.
I wonder what Killy gill all on at numbers. We be so worried about it, Yes, acted like I had the longest day at I mean.
I was so confused for a moment. And for those who were wondering, if I'm listening to this, why should I listen to that? Because you guys will go deep dive into that more than you will hear necessarily.
Yeah.
Absolutely.
Matt Brown's picks as well.
Yeah we are.
I know Cia does a lot of this too, but very heavy heavy data driven that we're that we will talk through that lens. That's what you'll hear a lot more on the podcast, more so than I'm guessing what you're gonna see us up with questions here for exactly, we got to leave something for you that's right, so you'll hear it much more through that lens on the podcast.
I also want to say this that these are not just three I use the word Schmendricks on a numbers game this morning. These are not just three schmendricks of golf Sea and he doesn't want to be known for this. Hits a ridiculous percentage and I'm not even making this up. A first round leader bets, which is maybe the most Even as I'm saying it, I'm like, this is the most ridiculous thing in the world. But it's true. He does. Wes.
Uh you helped me out here, Kelly. Is there anybody who hits more outrights in anything than Wes Reynolds does in golf?
No, I mean that for a comparable sports No like that is you're talking. We're talking about the two guys. I mean for west Renolds. I think a lot of people have been following this stuff for years with golf. He hits outrights at higher rate than almost anybody I know. It's seeing a shot absolutely the first round. He's become the first round leader king over the past couple of years.
The sea things just a comical, It's unbelievable.
It is because I had, like, I had some success that I stumbled into. I think, much like CEO when we like all like kind of first round leader markets became more widely available for whatever reason, I found myself stumbling into success there. But it's like betting a first quarter of an NBA game, right, Like it's.
Not really you're you're.
Ideally letting your hondicap play out.
By the way we're talking, like these guys aren't even here, see is like it's not no, you're right, yeah, okay. So, and I also just want to point out before we get into this particular master's that you Kelly do By the way, Kelly's a great golf handicapper in his own right, you do things by model Wes. You don't necessarily do it that way, correct, How would you characterize it.
Kind of a combo platter? I'm not totally model driven. A lot of it is a lot of it is market driven as well. A lot of it is just you know, following this out the year, So it's not like a particular model. It's more like a statistical context, okay of things that I think are going to be important on week to week basis.
By the way, how much like pressure do you feel because you're so good at this? Like if you have a week or two or god forbid, god forbid Wes that you go a month without hitting an outright, do you like lose your mind? Do you start to get high anxiety? Yes?
Yes, as a matter of fact, because look, look I had a few week drought before I hit Jaeger in Houston, and you know, and and and because of these droughts, that's what led me a little bit more to like placement markets, you know, the top twenties and the top thirties where it's like, hey, can I still make money when I'm not hitting out in an outright wager? And and you know that that has helped me at least most weeks. But but yeah, look, you know I put
a little bit probably too much pressure on myself. But you know, when you devote yourself to this, you obviously want to get out what you put into it.
I love only vsent dot com slash picks page. When I'm lucky enough to be in the top three. It's like Wes Renolds, like Gil Alexander two, he went three and two the last week for you know whatever. The percentage ROI three and two right West Reynolds is in the first place. He's like one hundred and seventy eight or something like that with all his plays fires Baby, and then Sia does things by locating and dislocating. What is your what would you say is your handicapping approach?
I would say it's a combo between Wes and Kelly's. Like I tend to steer away from models, but I got to admit, like the the things I'm looking at
are inputs into models. I'm just looking at it more granularly hard word to say, by the way, So I'm looking at strokes gain data mostly, but I'm just looking at looking at a piece by piece because i want to see, like even the smaller sample size sizes that a model might show, like round by round, tournament by tournament scoring, where whereas a model might just like you'll collate all of that stuff over whatever, however many rounds you want to do it, but sixteen, twenty four, fifty whatever,
I just want to look at it piece by piece. So it's kind of a long way to do it, but it's kind of using both approaches that Wes and Kelly use.
Okay, so I probably should just clarify too. Matt Brown often does this. So if I'm not sitting here coding and like running all this stuff, I'm using a lot of great stat engine websites that are out there, like Fantasy National, ric, run good dot.
Com, bet spurts, a lot of these guys that we've had on the shows.
You mean, you're not scraping day.
That might be shocking to you some of the y the audience.
That's right, that's very honest of you. So eighty eighth Masters, and again we should always point out with the Masters the most predictive of golf courses from one year to the next. Obviously, it's the only major that plays on the same golf course, and as we alluded to earlier, it is a smaller field than what we're normally used to.
And we just mentioned eighty nine golfers here. With the pairings coming out right now, and many of those not many, but a more than negligible percentage of the eighty nine are going to be. As we like to joke every year, winners from like the Eisenhower administration, right the Larry Mises of the world and years gone by and those kind the Bernard Langers and those kind of players. So you really do have a smaller pool than normal. And let
me start with what West brought up. This is always the best place to start up if you look at the weather forecast in Augusta, and we know how weather forecasts go, but right now we're seeing some rain and wind on Thursday for the first round, and some wind on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday is supposed to glorious. So it's funny how you couched it, West, because earlier on a numbers game we had Drew densic On it's also a nice golf handicapper, and he was talking about how
he thought the advantage might go. Am I right about this, Kelly? He did the opposite. He said the advantage might go to the afternoon Thursdays and the morning Fridays. Yeah's no correct, correct, And you off air, You're like, yeah, these guy everyone's really like has assumptions about the weather and Wes is saying the opposite now that you're sort of operating instinct, is that the folks in the afternoon on Thursday might get the worst of it.
Yeah, look, it's hard to predict a weather bias. You know, that's what we try to do every year. It's seemingly for the Open Championship in July, but you know, more often than not, the wind at least is going to be more benign you would think in the morning.
And that's why I think, you know, on a.
Just week to week basis on the PGA Tour, the majority and CM maybe can confirm this or go a diferent way with it, but it seems like a lot of the first round leaders are in morning draws more often than not on PGA Tour events. Guys that are getting out and maybe those first ten to fifteen groups in the morning. Now, keep in mind there's only thirty pairings here at Augusta because there's only eighty nine players.
There's one group that's a twosome that I think is the first out, and then you have threesomes throughout the rest. So I think, like we were talking about with Patilla, he's like in the twenty second of thirty groups, so that would make him in the afternoon wave. But yeah, look last year, obviously the weather turned this topsy turvy or it looked like Group Kopka was very much the winner, and then John Rahm had to go. You know, John Rahm proved that you can come from the tough side
of the draw and obviously win here. So just because you're on the bad end of the draw doesn't mean that you can't try it ultimately.
Yet John Ram the defending champion Scotti Scheffler. His only major win was the year before that. All right, well, Wes, have you seen any things I know I'm asking you to do two things at once here, but have you seen anything in the pairings just on a glance that makes you lean certain directions or makes you cross out anybody?
Well, the featured pairing, and it's going to be in the early wave on Thursday and then the afternoon wave on Friday. Believe they are group number twelve, and you've got three of the top four in the betting paired together. So you have Scotti Scheffler paired with Rory McElroy and
Xander Schoffle. Oh, and they are paired together and The group in front of them, I believe is John Ram, the defending champion, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Nick Dunlap, who of course was the amateur that won the American Express that has since turned professional.
Okay, so what is that? Does that do anything for you from a handicapping staff or not? Really?
You know, it doesn't change it as much because look, and Rory and Xander two that I do like this week, at least on the.
Short end of the board. But look, you're.
Gonna have to be paired and go against great players if you want to do great things at Augustus, So I don't think you can be intimidated by that. Now, I was mainly looking at okay, are some of these guys going to be paired with Tiger? And that's where it would have been a little bit of a concern with me if they were gonna be paired with Tiger, because look, that's gonna be obviously a big story. Even though he's one hundred and fifty to one on the odds board. Is is he going to be able to
make it? Is he gonna be able to make the cut? Is what is the physical toll going to be on him? Because last year, I thought the physical toll was at least a little bit easier through the first two rounds, simply because Louis Houstazen withdrew from that group. So keep in mind he played in a twosome with Woke Neeman, so that's a little bit easier than having to stop
and start with three players in the group. And just the walk I think kind of got to him and he made the cut on the number and then withdrew over the weekend. So I wanted to make sure maybe some of my guys were not paired with Tiger, because if they see him struggling, it may weigh on them a little bit, you know, to see if he's playing bad and really struggling physically, especially the ones that are like really close to him, like Justin Thomas and Jordan Speed,
but neither were paired with Tiger. As I'm actually scrolling Jason Mary, Yeah, I believe, And I think is that a late.
Perry and I believe?
Yeah, one twenty four.
Okay, by the way, you see this prop Micholson versus Tiger that some that some shops had where it was like really tightly lined, and now I think Michelson's minus one forty. Phil Mickelson, who, for those who forget finished with a flourish last year, shot a sixty five on the final round and was he tied for second last year in the end?
Yeah?
Behind wrong. Yeah that's a curious line, don't you think.
I'm not really surprised.
We had somebody actually on Matt Humans and Ice program last night, Vson, and I said, I really like Phil over Tiger here, because Phil, even though he's not really in contention on a week to week basis on Live and it's fifty four holes, he still at least his com playing competitive golf Tiger Woods, by the way, has not finished four rounds in an official event I'm not including the Hero Rule Challenge. Has not finished an event where he's played all four rounds since the twenty twenty
three Genesis Invitational. So it's been over a year since this guy has played four rounds in tournament play.
Yeah, I mean, that's what I mean. Maybe I wasn't clarifying. I wasn't clear. I couldn't believe it was so short, and minus one forty seems short to me.
Still for Micky, it was like it was like minus one fifteen at bet mgm Over.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I saw one that were even tighter. I mean I would be leaning Phill. You're not rushing to be running out to bet though, I would not be betting Tiger or Phil this week. All right, well, let's start out with Let's start out with some outrights. Sia has not a heart out but a heart ish out, So let's just let's do outrights first, and then we'll sort of throw at see his way. But Kelly, right now, forty eight hours before.
The tournament, the tournament is who he use? It's the totement. Gil. We don't like your con around here. Uh what do you have in pocket as an outright? And then what are you thinking about?
I think my outrights are settled. I think my outright card is complete. There are definitely some bets I still have to add as Vegas is taking its time to post some things here in town. So the outrights are about the only thing that is settled, I would say for me right now, I have three that I made over the past couple months. I have three that I've made this week justin Thomas Hideki Matziyama, will zalatoris I bet in the mid thirties over the past couple months.
I absolutely love Adeci this week, so much more that I had it back on to him at a shorter number. He might be my favorite. He is my favorite play this week, no matter how you're playing him. Hideki Matziyama is my favorite play this week. JT and Zalaturus had some great stretches earlier or earlier in the season. Their past couple events have both been a little mid not so great. JT obviously the change a caddy with.
Does that matter to you, by the way, so close to the event.
Because it's not just any bones it does, see it, Wes. I don't know how you guys feel about this with JT. In the amount of experience he has at Augusta, I'm not worried about it as much, but I don't.
Know how you guys look at that.
I just think it's a sign that he's flailing more than anything else. The timing of it just seems very curious with a very respected guy on the back, so it doesn't it doesn't inspire much confidence, let's put it that way.
Yeah, yeah, and with me. Look, Matt Minster is a really good caddy. He was with Patrick Cantley for several years and they had some success together, so I'm not worried about the quality of service he's going to get on the bag, but it does beg the question, like Sea was saying, like, because I feel like Justin Thomas has played much better this year than he had last year where he was totally lost and missing cuts badly, but he's still kind of searching for something and that
gets in your head a little bit. And he hasn't won since that PGA Championship at Southern Hills two years ago, so he's.
Certainly is question it.
But I think he is in better like pure playing for him, just watching him than he was this time last.
Yeah, I agree with Wes. That's kind of why I put the bet in it for the first place. I think the consistency you're getting out of Zalatorus and JT right now though, is a little shaky. So I didn't go back in on those guys in any other markets hit DECKI I did add the other outrights that I did bet Wyndham Clark debutant tebut debutant, I did bet him at thirty five to one, A little bit of that I bet him in the top debutant market too. I mean we'll hit on that, we get to other bets.
I did add a small outright bet on him though, just because this mark the number I found thirty five to one. He had been getting kept getting chopped down, chopped down. Think I think he's mainly around twenty five twenty eight to one in that range right now. So that was part of the part of a number play. And then this would be a I know he's on CEA his card as well. Shane Lowry I do have as an outright is my long bomb, my one long kind of outright here for this tournament. Lowry was incredible
in Florida, has put together some great results. If we're gonna talk about rain, we know this guy can play in the rain. We've seen that plenty of times before, done it at a very high level. So Shane Lowry definitely is kind of the one long shot.
I would say that I do have a lot of interest in this week.
Shane Lowry, who's top finish here was tie for third a couple of years ago at the Masters. Obviously the Open Championship his one major win, by the way, Dave Tindall, for those who are golf hardos who are familiar with Dave Tindall across the Pond. He writes for Betfair. He does his Master's formula every year. We just had him on a numbers game where he has criteria for the last ten Masters winners and he winnows it down on a point system to who actually has the most points.
First time he's ever had a tie at the top, and it is hit, Decky and Rory tied as his potential Masters winners per his formula. By the way, he hit the runners up the last two years, so he didn't get that champ, but he got the number two spot. Wes. I heard you mentioned Xander earlier, so I'm very excited to hear what you're about to say your outrights.
Yeah yeah, and Xander is on my card if you really look, look, Scotty Scheffler has been, you know, the man among mortals. I guess if you will, statistically not just winning two events back to back at bay Hill and at the Players, first guy to ever defend at the Players in that event's history, but the guy right behind him on a lot of these categories is Xander Schoffle, and I have him int a little bit of a better number. I think sixteen to one might be the
best you can get out there right now. But Xander right now second total strokes gain top twenty and off the tee approach around the green a little.
Bit down the board.
Putting, he's eighty f where a Scheffler I think is around one hundred mark. But Xander was fifth on tour in the same category in putting last year, so it seems like it can heat up at any moment. Xander actually has the longest active consecutive cut strikes made on the PGA Tour at forty two. He's nine ahead of Scheffler and second at thirty three. Last cut was actually at the Masters here two years ago, but he was
T three and twenty twenty one. That was the year Matsuyama one was T two and twenty nineteen here at Augusta. I think he's been the second best player on the PGA Tour this season. He's got six top tens. You know, it's kind of like, maybe I'm ready to get hurt again with this guy, but it's long past time for this guy to be second best. You know, he's always kind of right there. I had him at the Players and I felt.
Like man this is the time he's gonna win.
A really really big one here and just got passed by Scotti Scheffler and ends up T two with Clark and Harmon. So you know, Xanderschaffle was a guy. The number is short, but I think it's short for a reason.
You're the reason I sees on that is for obviously for the obvious reasons, because he has burned probably more golf betters who had him in outrights than anyone that I can think of over time. But you're not the only one to anecdotally anyway that seems to have landed on him for this that are willing to go back with him. So I thought that, I think that's interesting.
Yeah, yeah, and you know there's on the shorter end Xander. And then I did also play Rory speaking of getting hurt again, if you've been betting him at the Masters, you've been getting hurt the last ten years as he's trying to finish this Grand Slam. But I liked what I saw at the Valero last week. One point eight
to eight strokes gain approach per round. That's the best that he had done, I believe since the Canadian Open two years ago, when he won because it came out that he's been out to Vegas a few times working with Butch Harmon, and you know, maybe Butch is a good elixir.
At least in a short term.
So he's trying things, and he's off the PGA Tour policy board, resigned back in December. Of course, he's been the focal point of the PGA Tour versus Live divide, I think as much as any other player, and I think he kind of just wants to put that on the back burner. It's like, man, I need to win this thing. This is the last thing I have to really accomplished as an individual player. So Roy McElroy, I did have a little bit at thirteen, jakeen Neieman, I'd
still maybe play smaller at thirty to one. I got fifty to one actually when he won the live event Jetta last month. But this guy, you look at the form on this guy. This guy has been terrific for about the last five or six months really worldwide. He's already won two live events. He's trying to get his world ranking up because he mentioned after Mayacoba, hey I'm
not in the majors. He's ninety third in the world, and this is a guy it's probably a top fifteen or twenty player in the world if we're really, you know, looking at it realistically.
But he's got to.
Move that world ranking up just to get into the US Open, just to get into the PGA in the Open Championship. So this is an opportunity he's got to go, you know where. Not if he doesn't win the thing, he at least finishes like top three or four.
So juaque neieman.
I played I would play at thirty a couple of guys in like the mid forties and fifties because I'm still finishing my card. Tony Fee now whose Majors form has not been great lately, but before that bad run was really good and I liked how he played in Houston a couple of weeks ago, runner up, so really good Tea Green and the putter's been good in three of the last four starts. I played him about forty
five to one. And then another guy who's heard a lot of people I'm going with all the guys that are just heartbreakers this week Cameron Young fifty five to one, who is actually I think in better form coming into this Masters than last year when he was twenty five to one and ultimately finished seventh. Seven runner up finishes on the PGA Tour in the last three years for Cameron Young. But he's got the game here. He was the early leader in round one last year. So I
just went on the drift here. I just went on double the price for a guy that I think is probably in better form this time around.
Also in the same way that I brought up Tendall and who he landed on, I should bring up because you brought up Tony Fenew and because we can hear gasps already when we bring up showflet or finale from all golf betters listening to this. When Joe Peta our friend who people know from baseball analytics and also analytics, when he did the twenty nineteen Master's Tour Guide where he had access to the proprietary Augusta data, his conclusion was that Tony Feenow was going to win that twenty
nineteen Masters. He was actually the third round leader, if I'm not mistaken, didn't get there. But Fenw's analytics on this course over time are as good as anyone's. All right, SIA, your outrights, And then that you can vomit out everything else at this point too, but let's start with your outrights.
Yeah, I like what I had just heard from Wes and Kelly.
I mean, I don't know that brooks Kepka's name was mentioned, but you know, I don't want to go narrative shopping too much here, but the big game hunter thing actually is true for brooks Keopka, And even though on Livy he's not taking down tournaments, I do think Brooks is one of those guys that none of us are going to be surprised if he wins this tournament. I got it at twenty to one. I think it's eighteen, maybe
sixteen to one in some markets. But again, I brooks Kopka when he's not injured, because don't forget he missed a couple of cuts here when he was kind of dealing with injuries. But otherwise, I believe we've got two second place finishes and a seventh place finishes over the last five years, so I.
Really like him.
I don't know that he's getting enough respect in the market, and I do think that has something to do with Live and just not really flashing.
On Live necessarily. But Hitdeki mounts Siyama.
Kelly mentioned him, and there's a guy that Wes mentioned too that I'm really surprised about but is also on my card. So I'm really happy to hear that. But there's not much else we can say about Deckie. We know the recent forum has been very good. I don't know that there's anybody in this field. I mean, obviously probably two or three that you can make the argument for that's more comfortable at Augusta than Hideki mount Sciama.
We know he has the win in twenty twenty one, but since twenty fifteen, for the record, to think about that, it's a long time ago. He's made every cut Okay, that's kind of impressive and finished inside the top twenty eight out.
Of those nine times.
That is really really Oh by the way, the one time he didn't finish inside the top twenty, he was a disgusting T thirty two. I mean, this guy is just a walking top ten, top twenty machine at Augusta. Specifically, he's got the around the green game. He checks to weight it off, the tee boxes, long iron play. Obviously around the Green is super solid for him. Absolutely love him. Cam Young's the guy that I was surprised, Wes mentioned. I'm really happy about it because I think Wes is right.
I think he is in better form now than he was before. And for the record, this is his third time at the Masters. He missed the cut his first time, no shame in that debutante all that stuff.
But the second time he was excellent off the tee and he was excellent with the putter.
He checks all the boxes I'm looking for with long irons, off the tee, approach game, all of that stuff. What's interesting about him, and maybe this is a small sample size, but his around the green game is not very good. Right, But at Augusta, the two times he's been there, he's been relatively neutral. I mean, he hasn't had a poor performance, hasn't had a great performance around the green. So I think the argument can be made that he might actually have some success here around the green.
And because he checks all the other boxes.
I think fifty five to one, fifty to one is like borderline disrespectful.
I know he doesn't win. I get that part.
But we make the same argument about Xander Schaffley, and I'm not sure the talent gap between those two is that dramatic so fifty five to one, fifty to one, absolutely love Cam Young.
All right, sea first round leaders where you've made your hay.
Yeah, I'll make this super easy.
We talked about Cam Young getting getting in front of it in the first round. I like him, I like Kideki Matsuyama, I like Brooks Kopka.
I'm going with my outright card.
Here's part of the reason I don't normally do this, but two weeks ago at the Houston Open, West Reynolds had Steven Yeger Well, I had Stephen Yeger first round leader, but I didn't have him in my outright card. Last week I had akshe Batia first round leader. Turns out that hit, but he didn't you know, I didn't have the akhe Batia outright. And so that's two weeks in a row where I've had the first round leader but
not the outright and it was the same guy. I'm just gonna go ahead and go with guys that I know can get out in front of it.
I mean Decky, cam Young and Brooks.
They fit that profile and you know, most of them very comfortable here. I think at their numbers, which are in like the twenty eight to one range, and then then in Cam Young's case, I think he's in the forty five to one range, like all three.
Like the sound of that. By the way, I have dare you not have Patiata win the whole?
I know, terrible, I know what I'm thinking.
It's so funny because you guys do this so much more brilliantly than I do. But somehow in my head hack golf better. I love Matsuyama and Keopka the most. Also, and Kepka because, like you said, big game hunter, right, I hate not having him and then seeing that shitting't e grin of his as he's just like, you know, crushing of course, so I will be on him and then Matsuyama. I've said this on a couple occasions this
week with Kelly. I just feel like if we on Vson, for instance, maybe it's different with long shots, but on Vson, if we somehow had a way of aggregating all the time we've spent not only on a numbers geting on every show talking about all the great golfers in the world, from the Kepka's to the JT's, to the Speace to the Schefflers, to the Rams and beyond. I just feel like Matsuyama is the least talked about of all of
that tier of golfers. And I get it, all right, maybe he's not quite the top of the tip of the top, but I just feel like he gets overlooked a lot. And you know, besides providing us with the most iconic moment, or one of the more iconic moments in Master's history with his caddy bowing at eighteen, which is just you know, it's chill inducing, I just I
have a feeling about him as well. Take that for what it's worth, which is not worth much, but that's Those are the two I landed on, SEEA so that you can go tell us all your other bets here.
Yeah, by the way, one outright, I forgot, and I think Kelly brought him up. I do like Shane Lowry at sixty to one. I did want to point that out. He's been really hot in Florida and let's see at the Masters his last four T sixteen, third T twenty one, twenty five, and he's really coming in with good form, particularly with the iron. So I think sixty to one, that's the fourth guy on my card. I just forgot to mention him. So it's it's the three I mentioned
plus Shane Lowie. Okay, so just a couple other picks turning matchups, I got two for you. I got Shane Lowry speaking of over Colin Moore cow, I like Taylor Moore over Eric Cole.
Taylor Moore in very very good.
Form, some spike finishing positions. I do think he has some top ten, top twenty potential. Eric Cole's game is just not there right now for whatever reason. So Taylor Moore minus one thirty over Cole. These are tournament matchups, and then I'll just rattle off a few finishing positions before I get out of here. Taylor Moore t forty. I like that at plus money. That's plus one ten. I like Lucas Glover, who has also in very good form and has had some success at the Masters. Hasn't
played a lot of it. He played a lot of it pre twenty fifteen, hasn't played a lot lately, but when he has played, he's been okay. He certainly fits the bill for somebody who would T forty here. I like that at plus one oh five. Seawoo Cam minus one ten at T thirty very comfortable Master's history for him, I've got Shane Lowry T twenty at plus one fifty and a sprinkle bet because I know people are going to be hesitant to bet Cam Young to win it
for kind of obvious reasons. I think Cam Young in the top ten market may may be the better play, the more valuable play at plus three sixty. So that's something I think you know again, those plus three sixty plays when it comes to finishing market, you don't have to put a full unit on that, right, You don't even have to put a half unit. You can put point three units on that to get a full unit.
So those are kind of like, if you like Cam Young, but you don't like him enough to bet him as an outright, maybe you take him in the top ten where I think he can firmly land at plus three sixty.
All right, Sea, thank you so much. Man, appreciate it's seeing the shot. Everybody SI A N, E J A D on Twitter just like it sounds. Monumental sports network and sports line host and analyst and of course a member or at least a resident of the DMV. Now, thank you, Sea, appreciate it.
Man, Thank you, Gil Kelly and Wes he soon and have a great week.
You too, go get some winners. Seeing his shot kind to join us. He's got other stuff he's got to do as well. By the way, Wes, let me just point this out. When I asked about Bugaboo, I'm like thinking ed Og and the Bulldogs, and Wes comes in with Destiny's shot, and I'm like, okay, West, it's on top of him as always. Well, I was.
Trying to think of who you were thinking of. But I do remember that song. I was like Destiny's Child or was it a show?
It was one of those It's only two thousand, R and B beyond Janus.
It was great because I know you too well, both well enough that I know Gil was trying to set up the alley up to show off the West Reynolds knowledge and then he just came over.
The top of it. Yeah. By the way, we didn't mention that on the show today. How great We did a whole show obviously at college basketball was big. The most random moment of that game last night. Who was the kid on Purdue that had that dunk? Yeah? That was that mountain heid Heidi.
I was out of my I was out of my chair and we didn't bring that up on it.
We can't wear two hours. We didn't bring it up. Am I wrong in saying? That is easily one of the top five in game dunks you've ever seen in your life at any level.
And yet they couldn't put it in the One Shining Moment and put it in video package at the end of the night.
I'm like, come on, you know I didn't even think squeeze that right in. Yeah, I love.
One Shining Moment.
I was so mad how late it was last night, Like it felt like it took for ever.
I don't know they forgot We're gonna have one Shining Moment the other broadcast.
I made sure to stay. I love one Shining Moment. It's my favorite moment of the entire tournament. How was that not in there?
Well, let me go back to the expert West Reynolds. I'm more of a Teddy Pendergrass One Shiny Moment guy than I am a loose.
Shit I am too.
I love Luther, and you know they switched it with a couple other singers, But yeah, Teddy Pandergrass. And maybe I'm old school too, because that's when my university was. I think a lot more relevant college basketball that be in Indiana University, where they were always featured deep in multiple times in the package.
When Teddy Pendergrass was doing the number.
Real quick, I know we're talking golf. I'm so glad you brought that up.
Though.
I was like, I saw him like it was one of those I saw coming. But I was like, all right, what's this kid gonna do here? You know, like, what's this this kid going to do on this put back?
There's no and you're like, oh my, well, one.
Last college basketball question before we get back to golf. I think the golf people will forgive me, but I have Wes here, so I want to ask him. My big question last night was forget the fact that uk Obviously we know Yukon's domination against Perdue last night come second half, but where do I arbitrarily made the year two thousand? Where does that team rank for you since the year two thousand? Are they the best college basketball team since that.
Year in terms of a team that actually, you know, finishes winning the championship?
I think it's at least the.
Best team since twenty twelve Kentucky, And then, of course was the ad team that ended up winning at all.
That was Col's lone national championship.
Perhaps that has not been officially announced yet that he's leaving Lexington, But yeah, I think in terms of like the Ken Pomeroy I read this adjusted efficiency ranking, just overall, it's the best team since twenty one Duke. So if you go by that type of rating and put some credence into that, I could certainly see that. But it's at least the best team in over a decade.
For me, Doctor Bob had a non winner twenty fifteen Kentucky, the team that was undefeated that got to the Final.
Four, because I was there at that Final four in Indianapolis at Luca Stadium when Wisconsin knocked him off. So that's why I said non championship team, because they did get all the way to the final four undefeated, where we're still waiting for that fully undefeated season since the last time with seventy six Indiana.
Kent Benson, Quinn Buckner, and Scott may Kelly.
You remember it, Oh yeah, sure totally.
By the way, you know what wish Nev was obsessed with yesterday at the end that I can only say this on the podcast, I can say that's the radio side, wish nev yesterday morning goes, you gotta find this out for me. Where's is this the in? How long was this the most white starters for both teams combined? Oh? When was the let so.
I literally about that earlier in the tournament.
Well, you all were looking at a solar eclipse. I was like a deep diving NCAA finalists for and the only comp I could come up with. Now we're not talking you know, pre nineteen sixty six UTEP because obviously the world was different and in a bad way. But the only comp I could come up was like nineteen seventy eight Duke Kentucky where they also had six Caucasian starters. Cittingway, that was wish cancerted yesterday.
Well, then you know that's the day about college basketball. Now, there was only one McDonald's All American, by the way, in the final four Stefan Castle at Yukon, Wow, which you don't get that very often. And the fact that it's get old stale now in college basketball.
It's all old stale all to portal.
Yes, yeah, yeah, you got to get the Blue Chippers, but you got to get older guys. Cam Spencer, by the way, who was he didn't get the most Valuable Player. I think it was Tristan Newton. But Cam Spencer for Yukon just turned twenty four on Saturday and I looked it up. There were six NBA All Stars this year age twenty four or younger.
Yeah, there was something where he's like, he's like older and they listed all these NBA players. I'm like, camp Spencer's old with all those guys.
Anyway, Paulo Boncaro is twenty one.
Yeah, he's like way older than Bud Carrol. Anyway. Well, it's a golf podcast, but I'd love to get your thoughts on next year because if if Bama can stick keep those guys, man, I think Bama's the play. But that's a big if. Uh Okay, back to golf, Wes. What else besides your outrights do you have in pocket already? What have you bet?
I'm gonna be playing and I'm actually gonna be adding after we're done here some placement markets.
One matchup I did play.
I did play Patrick Reid plus one fifteen over Terrel Hatton and Teryl Hatton. If you were watching the live dural event last week, he was in the mix didn't get it done there. At the end, Dean Burdmester won the playoff over Sergio Garcia.
But this is just terrel.
Hatton has never really seemed to be comfortable at Augusta National, has never really liked it here. He's got one top twenty and seven appearances. And Patrick Reid, who look is not contending week in and week out on the Live Tour, loves this play and he's still a magician around the greens with scrambling and around the green, which I think
is going to really matter this week. So you know, I was surprised see Patrick Reid that big of an underdog, cause I did play Patrick Reid plus one fifteen over Tyrollhatton on a matchup. And then for low amateur this year, I went with the big six to eight kid who plays at Georgia Tech. You might remember if you watched the Open Championship last year he was the first round leader there. And I went with Chrysto Lamprecked at plus two twenty five to be the low.
Amateur here at Augusta National.
And that's always kind of a crapshoot market because you're getting the British Amateur you're getting the USM, you're getting the Latino America Amateur, so you're getting only a few in the field. But Christo Lampreck, look, I gotta think he's at least played Augusta National several times, being a member of the Georgia Tech Golf team, you know, and being based at least in the state. So Christo Lampreck plus two twenty five low am.
Oh so say it might be a crap shoot market for a lot of people out there. Wes Rynolds definitely has a better read on that kind of stuff than most of us.
I'll say that, much.
Like Jason Weingarten doing baseball prospecially exactly. I think he knows what he's talk exactly. By the way, about debutants because it's our annual, you know, entree to using the word debutants where no first time Masters player has won the Master since nineteen seventy nine. And Fuzzy Zeller, do you throw out all first timers to win it all? Wes more more often than not.
Yes, But look, and I don't have any on the on the card necessarily. But Kelly mentioned one though, that usually you don't get a first timer that's already a major championship winner, and you do have that this year with Wyndham Clark. In terms of the debutant market, there's twenty by the way, this year in the eighty nine player field. Ludwig Obert, who you know, if you listen to Launch every week, Ludwig Gobert is like price less than twenty to one. He's already won on the PGA
Tour and he's won on the DP World Tour. But it's like this guy gets priced like he's a major champion and now he's not. A guy I'm necessarily high on this week just because I think this, by the way, is his the first major championship he's ever played.
Ludvigobert, as much of.
A star as he is, this is going to be his first major championship appearance. So man, if he does it, then then maybe he is the next big thing in golf. And I think he is going to be, you know,
a pretty big player for years to come. But yeah, you've got a lot of people in this debutante market, but don't I don't bet him for the outright wins, but I think certainly for placements and any type of props, I don't think you want to ignore these guys, because keep in mind, will Zalatorus was runner up his first time a couple of years ago.
Montsia Jonas Lexed.
Actually many years ago, was a debutante in finished.
D two here.
So don't think that these guys are just all going to be at the bottom of the board when you're scrolling through. There's going to be a couple of these guys that contend.
Yeah, yeah, I honestly, Wes, this is interesting is I can remember it a long time that the the the debutant market. God, I'm so sick of debutant and totality.
I'm only like totality.
I'm already I'm only halfway done with probably Master's content for the week. I'm so sick of saying the word debutante before you before you go west?
Did you did you were? Did you look for the clips yesterday? Did you did you see it?
I did not.
I called the coverage on television as I was doing some uh some written work for the Masters stuff. We were doing the same I saw well at my hometown in Indianapolis. There was a big deal at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Yeah, which I guess is a pretty good place to watch it. And uh yeah, so, uh yeah, I was watching that all the day.
It's like, okay, they.
Have totality here in New Hampshire, yes, but not yet in Vermont.
Well, yeah, the totality. The totality spots were great and awesome and it must be so cool. But I have a working theory that people lie when they are in other places. So like, there's people in Vegas I have when I was a kid in DC too. I have the same reaction in both both times where I'm like, I didn't see a thing and in both cases there were people in the same spot that I was like, oh, it was amazing. Are people lying? Wes? Really? Aren't people full of it?
Yeah?
Look, I think people want something kind of exciting and in their life and then their lives do and you know, just want some kind of escapism from the normal day to day news cycle that we currently have, so you know, maybe a little bit of embellishment.
I'm sorry, Kelly said totality. I apologize. Go ahead, Yeah, you're fine. No, I was just are you kidding? Me?
As fascinating with that as anybody, but no, the deputyp Market, I think is really fascinating this this year. I mean, you brought up all thatself about Louvie Abert, but that are o bear.
But this is like Wes.
I think that you know, the course, we're moving back some of the tea boxes, like I do think like the course fits. Some of these guys game pretty damn well, including Ludwig, including Wyndham Clark, including Aux Japetia. You know, if his shoulder can stay in the socket, you know, I think I think he's got.
A fighting chance. Danny McCarthy's right there in that market as well.
So I mean we've had we've seen other guys that have won this year, you know, obviously Pavone, Jake nab Nick Dunlap. I'm I'm excited to see what some of these guys can do. And I do have some betting interest in Wyndham Clark. As you said, guy's already won a major. I don't really the experience of Augusta is extremely important, but at the moment's not going to be too much more, that's for sure.
Those are all your bets. You have other bets that you've made besides that, right, So.
I got yeah, I got others.
Yeah, I can roll through mine here quick, so outrights already went through those top I have a big bet, big bet top ten on Xander Schoffley. That's the way I chose to attack that. Completely agree with everything that Wes said, though I would have him as the second best guy you know on the PGA Tour right now.
I think that there are the Masters is very interesting to me this year because if you are someone who focuses heavy PGA Tour as I do, and not as much live, and West does a little bit more with that stuff than I do.
The live guys.
Yes, I think John Rahm, I think Brooks Koepka is interesting. I think it's great. I think Jackie Neeman's interesting with the year he's putting together. I think his odds have maybe gotten a little too short though for me to have much interest betting interest in him. So you kind of if you throw out the live guys, then you can start picking through these PGA Tour guys and man West like you could.
It's it's only a handful of.
Guys that you could really make a claim that are okay, this is a world class player who's in form coming into this tournament that you can really that you can really feel confident backing, So I think that's part of the reason why why I'm more confident putting some dollars behind Sanders Shoffley, then maybe a lot of people would be in this tournament because he is one of those guys who's been getting it done basically week in and
week out on tour this year. So yeah, I went top ten on him, heavy bet on top Hitdeki, top twenty.
If he finishes. If Shafley finishes twelve, will you never ever bet on him again for the rest of the calendar year.
No, I'll still better.
I'll be.
Heavy bet on the top twenty on Hitdeki, Matsi Yama. I will be adding uh finishing position markets here today. Other guys that I will be adding Nieman I will be mixing in somewhere. I think what I'm gonna do with him is probably take a top ten shot. Either he's got the game to show up and compete and he's right around there, or uh, we're all overrating what he's done this year. So I'll probably play a top ten on him.
Shane Lowry.
Shane Lowry, I ended up playing in a couple matchups, so I might actually not play in any of the finishing position markets, but I think a top twenty bet on him is sound. See you brought Seawill came up. I will definitely be on him in a top twenty bet, waiting for some pricing to show up on him. And that's everything finishing position tournament matchups right now. I have hit Deecki over Jordan Speith. I don't hate Speek this week, but this is more of a price play only minus
one twenty. I gotta lay with deck I've got Decky.
I don't hate Jordan, So you just hate Jordan Smith in general. Yeah, he's a human.
Good point.
Yeah, I hate Jordan Speed in general. I hate how much he talks to the damn Caber stuff. Just get out of your game. But no, I think betting wise this week, he is a guy you could make a case for, but the minus one twenty not steep enough for me to stay away from a Decky matchup over him, and I bet Lowry plus one oh four over call him more a cow. I believe that was the one
that Sea mentioned. I'm on the same exact matchup as him, and then Lowry plus one twenty over Matt Fitzpatrick mat Fitzpatrick another guy that I don't think is gonna have it. He could have a good week, but he's not really high on my radar. Calinmore Kala not really a guy that's put it all together. And then a couple other props that I've bet so far, Wyndham Clark I mentioned as top Debutante, and then Corey Connors I bet for top Canadian.
Corey Connors is to hit the Gala.
Were the guys that kind of just I just left off my card for other bets that I'm interested in, But Corey Connors made it for top Canadian for sure?
Okay, do we lose web? Okay? Did West gave out all his plays?
Right? Didn't he already?
If not, they'll be up at Visa dot gum.
Visa dot com slash picks. Uh, let's try to get West back because I want to ask my final two questions. So here are the final two final two questions. I want to get your thoughts on this one. First of all, who is the golfer that if they win or are competing at the end, you're gonna have the most self loathing over because you will not have any position on them, like who's the guy that you and by that I
mean obviously there's like, you know, millions of choices. Yeah, I'm talking about someone who you're thinking about betting but ultimately are not going to, and then they're gonna stick it up your you know what when all is said and done.
Well, I just mentioned Connor's at the gala, but if we're being honest, I wouldn't bet an outright on Connors anyways, So I guess the Gala might be the answer for me, but it's also it's also Brooks Koepka.
Yeah, but I is.
Yeah, I'm glad you brought this up because there's also the outrights. I rattled off like I'm I'm leaving room to get in live as well.
Okay, so that was my second.
Yeah, like there are there are some guys at the top of that board, whether it and mainly i'm talking Scheffler Rom Koepka. Yes, yeah, those three literally those three is what I'm talking about of where I would look to get in live on one of those.
So these were exactly my my final two questions. And Wes, I think you've given out all your bets already, so I can ask you the final two questions.
Yeah, yeah, so far.
I'm gonna add more over the over the next couple of days.
But so so the fun Yeah, the final two head, Oh, no, you finish your thought, go ahead. I'm sorry.
No, I was just gonna say I'm gonna add a couple more of the placements. Usually I don't place those on a week until like Tuesday or Wednesday, you know, just to kind of get a gauge of the market. But uh, that's what I have, at least at the moment, but more to come, certainly.
Okay, So here are the final two questions. They're not the megapod questions, but they're at the final two and and Kelly's right, they are kind of related. Which is my standard question for golf. Is much of golf betting for many a self loathing, Like you think about betting a golfer, but you don't pull the trigger on it, and then comes Sunday back nine. There they are either
in the lead or in contention. And so my first question is, you know, which is the golfer that is going to cause you the most self loathing because you're not gonna have any money on it. But Kelly's right, my second question is actually related which is, on the other hand, how much of your betting pie is going to be in tournament. So Scheffler, who's four to one? We all love Scotti Scheffler, for God's sake, I feel like you should have a bet on him in every tournament.
But at four to one, that's ridiculous, right, Like, no one's really betting him pre flop, and now I just say no one. Someone is, But it's not like necessarily something that you guys would do. Who is the golfer that you aren't going to have anything preflop, but you will be quick to jump in on if a number becomes more favorable.
It might be It might be Patrick Cantley actually, because he is drifted up to forty to one, and this is a guy I have a prop bet on.
Him to win a major this year.
But yeah, Patrick Cantley Victor Hoblin being another one. Those are kind of the two guys that have drifted up that I thought, Okay, this is their year going into this year where they're going to finally win a major, and neither has really played that great. Can't Lay was the fifty four hole leader at Riviera when I had him, and as alators as well, and they got passed by Matsiyama who shot that sixty two on Sunday to get the win. But yeah, Victor Hoblin's kind of been a
little bit off this year. You know, he has a sports psychologist out there, he's had a different swing coach, but yeah, he's got the potential, man, But I just am like, Okay, the day of the week, I don't put these guys on. Here are the weeks that they're going to burn me. So you always have that fomo type of thing. I think, especially as a golf futures better.
But those are the two that I think have drifted up a little bit where it's like, man, these guys would be in like the teens or the twenty to one and now you're seeing them like forty one out there in the market.
Those are good answers. All right, I lied here here's my last the last question. So Hoblin and Kent'tley would would fill that bill. Who's the guy though that no matter how good he's doing rounds one, rounds two, rounds three, you're it's not gonna be a Hoblin or can't lay, but you're still gonna be like I'm still not betting this guy. There's no way I'm betting him. This can't be real, It's not happening. Is that a Tyrrell Hatton kind of guy?
Wes who you got?
Oh Man? Probably?
I mean, I don't know if I could pick on guys, that would be.
A good answer.
That is a good answer.
You don't feel like, Okay, it's his time. You feel like eventually he's going to have a time, but is it going to be here? Like can this really happen like that? That seems like something that only Tiger Woods would do, like when his first ever major on you know that early in his career. But uh uh, A couple guys, even though I did bet him on a matchup that I won't have on an outright just because the form, the form isn't there.
Is Patrick Reid.
You know, like last year we were watching this when the live guys all kind of got ignored in the betting market and drifted up too far and then they played really well well now, especially if like Brooks and you go walking Neeman in there too, and maybe even to Shambo where it's kind of like, okay, everybody knows that these guys, you know, yeah, are still at least playing, you know, somewhat competitive golf, whatever you think of the live tour. But Bryson to Shambo actually a name I
just mentioned. That's a guy I will say because his distance, he's still number one in distance, He's still got some touch around the greens.
But I just don't feel and remember he had that.
Quote where it's like I feel like sixty seven's even party had that asenine quote and then he proceeded to shoot I think like several over. But Bryson to Shambo, just to me, on these greens, I never trust him, yeh. I never trust him on these bent grass greens, on these slick greens. So that might be the one where it's like, oh, this can't be real, like he's about to falter at some point.
I I as I was scrolling down the odds board, that was the next name I was gonna mention.
I think Ludwig maybe.
A little unfair because we're picking on one of the new bee kids for guys that have been here before, who have you know, who have won, uh, you know, on tours before.
Bryson Deshamba would be I'm with Wes.
I don't think there's any situation where I'd be like, oh man, I missed out on Bright's.
I forgot he said that too.
Yeah, the uh, I think the one that's fascinatings.
Going back to you, like your your in tournament question is like, you know, see see what we talked about, right,
does so much with first round leaders. I'll be dialing back a little bit that, you know, some of my first round betting, which is then going to impact me dialing back how much kind of in tournament stuff I'm doing simply because of because of this weather, And I don't know that I'm gonna feel confident enough by Wednesday night to really I mean, we'll see stuff changes and there might be a window there where you actually do think, uh,
there's some groups that have a really big advantage. But we're sitting here on Tuesday morn late morning right now, and Thursday it looks like it could be a complete wash out from start to finish.
Oh you pointed it out last year, like what if it just completely gets a limit.
And that there's that right west, Like I know, we try to talk about these weather windows, but like there's a lot of times it's just a wash out and everybody gets pushed back, so you sometimes bet. You know, golf betters can outthink themselves sometimes when they try to
look for those advantages. So I'll tell you if it's if it's looking like it looks right now, I can't imagine I'm gonna have much much invested on Thursday outside of my top guys like c Us mentioned, like, I'll still bet Decky first round leader because I'm loaded up on him so heavily already.
H but honestly, that could be it. That might be it for first round.
Did we have a master's that ever went to Monday? Didn't we?
Oh? Yeah, yeah, we've had We've had it a couple.
Yeah, yeah, I thought so. Okay, listen, appreciate it from both of you guys. I hope that gave some folks some food for thought. And I asked that last question not to like embarrass you guys if those guys end up being at the top, but just to let other folks know what you guys are thinking in terms of if you have the instinct to bet Bryson to Shamba, well, these guys might not still even if he's playing well. Phil Mickelson might be in that same category.
The last note I'll add on Brooks like, there's also like this is live Betting's live betting doesn't matter what sport, right, I can say it's really easy for me to sit here on a Tuesday and say I would love to grab Scheffler Ram or Brooks live. Yeah, but of course I could be beating myself up on Monday if Brooks the first round lead and goes wired to wire to win the damn.
And you might change your mind. And by the way, that's like from our perspective, like sports betting one oh one.
What what annoys us most is when people think we must be beholden exactly to the picks we make in the moments that we're doing a show or a podcast, when in fact we're all live betters too right the moment they just give a clean example this when the FedEx Cup happened a few years ago, the three tournament Arc and I had Koepka Betts and I talked about keptain Keppa, but there was a moment on Sunday where I could grab Rory back to just make sure I
didn't lose everything. And you had to time it perfectly, and you had to be present and your girlfriend or your wife couldn't be bothering you, But that's these are the things that go into all of betting, and so yeah, I mean, we'll see how it plays out. I do think though, that the weather point is a good one, and that you know, also just for newer golfers, the quickest way to ruin is not everybody's West Reynolds, right mere,
Mortals don't hit out rights on a regular basis. So the quickest way to what we call a betting leak, and I've talked about this on a numbers game recently, might be golf outrights. Like if you bet too many of them pre flop, it's probably a losing proposition, right Like, Not everybody's going to hit these at a high rate, so just be mindful of that. You guys have long Shots Live eleven pm tonight Eastern, eight pm Pacific Wes Kelly and Matt Brown. The name of the podcast is
called long Shots. Is the live different from the podcast? Yeah, it would just be reposted. Oh, just rehost.
So yeah, the show again, not live.
We'll do it.
Live once again, not live, not be waiting to see us outside of the Circus studio.
At that time, live to tape there you go live to tape, so we call it in the biz.
So you mean to tell me you're not doing this podcast a live podcast and a podcast podcast is correct? Yes, okay, long Shots is the name of the podcast. Though they do it every week and three of them at least when Matt shows up, they do all three of them. Matt is at the Masters, so we're all jealous of him, so I'm just spoking fun good for him. Have you ever been to the Masters? West?
I have not. It's a bucket list item.
Yeah, they don't. They don't like my kind there, Augusty either. Midwest Hillbillies.
Yeah, well we don't really like West. Rentalds coming down here, all right. Wes Reynolds at Wes Reynolds one. That's the number one on Twitter. Also the co host of v sent tonight with Matt Humans what is that six pm? Is it? West?
It is?
It is now eight pm Pacific in AM Eastern and then and then replay us going into Mitch and Paul h.
So you guys are on like four or five consecutive times through the night. Yes, okay, yes, And then Kelly Bidlin at Kelly Bidlin that's k E.
L L E.
Y B y D l O N on Twitter. Uh. He is uh the producer number nine of a numbers game week days here on the network. Really really is my sidekick, for God's sakes, He's on the air all the time. In fact, if you Parson out, Kelly talks more night Uh and then will say that and what's your what's your show on the weekend when.
Beds Sunday with Dustin Sweetelson, Yes, three to seven Eastern.
Thank you, Wes, thank you Kelly. Listening to long Shots tonight. Good luck with all your bets. The Adya the Masters from Augusta