Beating The Book: The 85th Masters Preview

shining through. But just a a little bit of an apology in advance from all of us at the Beating of the Book Podcast. Enjoy. Welcome to the Beating the Book Podcast, Masters Edition, the eighty five Masters live from the pool at Circus Sports. Uh, it doesn't get any better than this, Gil Alexander along on site with Brady Cannon, host of long Shots, the greatest golf betting show there ever was at Visa, which you will be hosting not only with your co host West Reynolds today, but also

with a great Scott van Pelt. Yeah, we're really excited about that. Scott Van Pelt will be our guest on long Shots. Matt Humans will be in studio as well, so we'll have the full crew there and UH, couldn't really ask for a better guest. He's on the grounds. And Augustine, yes, she is um and he's SVP for goodness that uh and we are also joined and I do mean honor to be joined by the guy who

literally wrote the book on the Masters. When it comes to data that is not public domain data like you can find in baseball, say on a fan graphs was the twenty nineteen Masters Tour guide for my good friend, once upon a time doing other sports, now completely focused on golf in his spare time. It's Joe, Peter, how you doing, Joe, Hey, guys, Brady and Gil. Great to talk to you. And and Brady, that's a great jet in SVP. I know you guys know, but maybe some

of the younger listeners don't. He's ay, he was one of the I don't know if he was the original or on the original crew, but a long ago and your inception Golf Channel host, so he certainly he certainly has the golf chops. Yes he was. He was Golf Channel, I believe right before ESPN. That's where or something. By the way, what year did you what year did you win? The MAB five. It was right before Jack turned the trick in eighty six, so I'm kind of the forgotten man.

No one remember that's a good year to pick five. Have you remember that year putting the jacket on? Putting the jacket on Jack must have been a thrill for you. That was that was really even better than winning it. That's that was called right, should go back and check that footage, Brady? Yeah. Interesting. Alright, Joe, I want to start with you, because people who just heard what I said, they're like, what do you mean he wrote the book

on the Masters? UH. For those who didn't hear your appearances on a numbers game on Visa when the book first came out in UH, please explain to folks sort of the journey that led you to the nineteen Masters Tour Guide. Yeah, Gil, the it was an early UH

twenty eighteen UM that I decided. I was that there was not as much written about golf analytics as there was about baseball, So I pivoted from baseball for golf, and when the UH on the Master site that year, I noticed, well, just to back up for second um, as you know, you know, being analyticstrivan Um Strokes gained was the revolution in golf that uh and pioneered by Mark Brody, who uses the p g A data to

create the metrics that you know, golf analytics. UH people use whether you're your BFS or or a better or just a fan of the sport. That really helped um change the way we looked at you know, it updated things from dreams and regulation and punched per round um. And but one of the limitations of it was if the event was not a p g A Tour event like all of the majors at the U for a long time, Uh, there was no data uh that that you you know, here we love this data, but then

the majors come and we couldn't use it. And uh it turns out that because the PGA Tour don't run those those events, well, it turns out on the master's site, I noticed in that there was a catalog of every shot taken. So I input them all twenty thousand plus shots.

I I input it after the events and wrote a book really the annually and put that's right, and kind of wrote a book of previewing the twenty nineteen event, and you know, really, so it was the first time that readers and golf fans in general got to see you know how Patrick read won. Um, you know who

was actually best tat of green at that event. Um. And I've been doing it since I since I've been able to backfill a couple of other years, and I'm gonna be having a larger book come out, hopefully pre Christmas that will really give the entire strokes gained history at the Masters, which will cover about six years. Well we'll cover six years sixteen twenty one. So that's that's what I'm working on now, and that's how the first

book got written. Hey Joe, real quick for the viewers and the listeners, would you quickly explain exactly what is strokes gained and greens in regulation? That's pretty obvious you hit the green in regulation, but what is strokes gained really defined? For the statutistic statisticians? Sure well, as you know Brady and a lot of golfings though greens in regulation like that, that sort of standard stack can be

highly misleading. You know somebody that hits an iron shot from one eight to within four ft um and you know on on a second shot on a far five, say, and someone who you know hits uh, hits the third shot on a far five, you know, it chips it from twenty yards off the green and and gets it to within fifteen ft. They both have a green in regulation, but obviously the former shot is much much more valuable

uh than the matter. So what Green's and what strokes gain does is thanks to the to the framework of that mark Brody created. Uh. It essentially takes every shot and judges it against a baseline of all other pros. And I always think the simplest way to to sort of illustrated is to think of an eight foot pot. Most golf fans know that pros touring pros make fifty

of their eight foot pots. So if a pro is facing an eight foot put, um it essentially has an expectation of, uh, you know, of of one and a half strokes, right, he's gonna make it fifty percent at a time, and the other fifty percent at the time he'll two pot because you know, for these purposes, they never three pots from eight feet. So if a golfer makes an eight foot pot, he has picked up a half stroke where he has gained a half stroke against the benchmark of the field. And if he two puts

from eight feet he's lost a half stroke. And you essentially do that with every stroke. You can banks mark every drive, memory, approach and every time you saw them

all up in the end. And that's uh and and now you have a much more granular uh and to me, because I like data to tell stories, you get a much better story of what happened during around And you know, by the time you put a number of rounds together and number of tournaments together, now you have stories on each coffer skill sets and how they different differ and as you know, Brady, different tournaments for reward different skills. So it's a very useful tool and I just think

it's fascinating and fun. This gives us entree. By the way, before we get to our specific Masters thoughts for this year, probably the greatest thing in your Master's Tour Guide was in doing this research on strokes gained analysis specifically for the Masters, you stumbled upon maybe the greatest single stat um in modern golf history. And we're not even sure to this day if the person who is at the center of this stat and the streak is aware of it,

could you explain to people what that is? Sure? And I will tell you before I publish this December, I will try uh to reach out to this person in question and get his thoughts on it. Were. Of course, referring to Tiger Woods and um strokes gained is a familiar I read the book and I'm sure I'll remember. Okay, all right, go ahead, I'm sorry, Joe. Yeah, so even pro golfers, I think I think it was maybe Stewart cink Wu who referred to strokes gained as a cruel mistress.

You know, it is a it is a brutal machine because you are always being judged against your fellow pros. So if you shoot a three under sixty nine, you know, on of course, but the field shoots sixty eight a half, you have actually lost a half stroke to the field. Um. So picking up positive strokes gained each round is an accomplishment. Now for the most elite players, they expect to do it. But you know, you know, somebody goes six, six, seventy eight.

You know, even if they're rory, that seventy three round

probably lost strokes to the field. Well, it turns out Tiger Woods went an entire three sixty five day period plus without a round losing strokes to the field and he was within one The punch line of the story is in the year two thousand, he was within one hole, you know, one round and one hole the eight hole of his final round of the year, and he uh and and to put together what I call the perfect year, the perfect p g A tour season, and he missed it.

And our friend Chris Felika actually called in and I

couldn't find the scorecard. And he when we first told this story, he called in and uh, you know, showed us that Tiger actually went like double bubble to tow at Balderrama in Spain at a World Golf Championship of that to end the two thousand the season, and it broke his his It was over ninety rounds that he'd had of strokes gained on the field, And to me, it's even more impressive than his hundred and forty plus um made cuts in a row, because uh, to make cuts,

to make that many cuts in row, what essentially means you never had a bead round on Thursday or Friday. To go ninety rounds in a row without you know, picking up strokes on the field essentially means you never had a blow up whole for ninety some rounds because you know, you go, you put a triple on the card.

It's now very hard to gain strokes on the on the field for a round, and he did it for and I think that's the most um and what you start when you start going through data, you realize that at any time a Golford gets to twenty rounds, it's an amazing accomplishment, you know. And Tiger got up to ninety. I think the second highest is something like Marco Mirror at thirty or thirty one. Yeah, something like that. And it's just it'll never be broke. Joe. You probably remember

it was, I believe last year on tour. It was a big deal because Victor Hovland lad the field and strokes gained Teta Green for three weeks in a row and that was monument three weeks in a row. So interestingly, that did not make the Tiger documentary. Joe, I was waiting for it the whole time when I was watching, When is the Strokes game thing coming? Alright, guys, So the five version of the Masters, it is the one of our majors, of our four majors where we actually

play on the same course. We talked about this obviously every year. This year is a little different because we're coming off the pandemic Masters, which was played in November. Very different. Dustin Johnson with a twenty under. We obviously never see scores like that at the Masters, and Cameron Smith famously the first guy to ever have four rounds

in the sixties. Now that I guess the first question is, um, how much do we read into that November version of the Master's Brady which had a weather situation at the beginning which softened the course. So it's interesting hearing people because some people like, ah, you throw it out and it meant nothing. Um. On the other hand, the golfers who did well kind of have good history on the course too, So in some respects it does matter where are you falling. Yeah, it's a little bit in between.

I don't think you throw it out completely, but there's some interesting handicapping angles around it. Um. First of all, I think what you saw was a lot of guys that were debutants at the Masters. We know that debutants, the first timers, typically don't have a great deal of success, and you saw a lot of guys those A lot of those guys have success in November, and I think a lot of that had to do with the softer conditions.

Of course, DJ goes to twenty under part breaks an all time record, So there were some situations that were outside of the norm. But then you mentioned some cream did rise to the top like it usually does it August. It's usually a chalky tournament. The best players to tip do typically end up on the back nine on Sunday at top the leaderboard, and from the scoring statistics, it wasn't all that different from a normal April Masters. It was lower across the board, but not by as much

as you might think. I think the biggest difference for me was seeing guys like Sebastian Monos, Cameron Smith's son j M. Now Smith has been there a few times, but m a first time, or Scotty Scheffler a first timer, uh ct PANU, Corey Conners. These guys were all in the top twenty, so I think that is different. I don't think you're going to see that again. Another thing that I think is interesting. I wonder what your opinion on this is Joe guys that did play the Masters

for the first time in November. It's almost a disadvantage to be back here this year because I think they've got a rude awakening to what they're going to find in April. Yeah, I agree with you. You one name.

We all kind of uh or I think we all, as fans of the Masters, you know, have some sort of sense of guardianship that we don't want to see the et pads as Deputy tonson And you didn't throw out the name, but Dylan for Telly, I take offense that these guys are gonna be in the top ten, you know, if there's if they're gonna be clustered in the top ten. We had Abraham, you know, short hitting

Abraham answer there as well until he blew up on Sunday. UM. So I agree with you, and I think they are going to be in for rude awakening uh this year. And to throw just one more um, you know sort of proprietary stat out there that dove tails exactly with what Brady said and Gil is that the year over year correlation of strokes gained, you know, individual golfer strokes gained from one year that the next is always higher at the Masters than any other tournament. It's not even close.

It It usually it averages you know, above point three. UM, and no other tournament gets above the high teams. Well, the correlations from the prior April in to November was point three, so it was you know, it's right spect So I agree you can't throw it all out because um and and I'll just throw one other we'll mention a big name here. If you are inclined to say, I'm gonna throw it out right that you know, is there anything that happened, I'm not gonna believe in UM,

I would point this out to you. Justin Thomas has had has been an abysmal putter at the Masters. His his he's been negative strokes gained every year, uh, six team through nine team and with some you know, and and if you look at it by round you know you uh, it's a large majority or negative rounds in In November he gained over three three strokes putting was the first time he's ever been positive. And as we know, I think he finished, but he got the top five

last year. Fourth. Okay, Now, if you're gonna throw out November, you know, then don't you have to throw out you know, you got to throw it all out right. It was the first time that Justin Thomas has ever successfully potted the Master, you know, the greens in augusta national. Um. So that's just what I'd like to point out to people. If if uh, you know, it's not so easy to just say I'm going to ignore it, because then you

have to ignore all of it. Um. There were a lot of differences when when you look at the leaderboard and everything, but grand picture, like Joe says, the scoring was pretty darn similar that. That's pretty fascinating. I'm gonna go to I'm gonna go to the phone here, guys, Steve the punter you're familiar with Stephen Rawlings. Every year he puts together some nice Master stats. Uh. And again if we've if you've heard this in past years, there's a reason for it because again we're playing on the

same course. Driving accuracy the least important thing too eventual Masters winners. If you go back the last twelve, uh, the average rank and driving accuracy for the winners was damn nearty nine point one seven. Driving distance average rank of the past twelve winners eight team point five the ones the categories that matter the most Greens in regulation per Stephen Rawlings six point six six in the rankings scrambling nine point eight. So really getting up and down

is everything at augusta putting average eleven. Uh. The other big thing that we always talk about, where do winners and where do people who are successful of the masters make their hay? Well, let's go back twelve years again. Par three's aggregate for the last twelve winners thirteen under par on par three's on par four's twenty seven under on the par five's one hundred and seven under. So

it is really all about the par fives. Let me before you, guys give your picks and how you're betting it, how you allocate your money and outrights and derivative markets, and it head to heads. Let me just cherry pick a few golfers and and feel and get your opinion on what you feel about these guys. Let's do brooks Keptka and Dan Burger. Daniel Burger, who are both headed in with injury concerns. Brookes kept I got thirty to one.

I heard you got a forty to one, so you took a flyer as well, just it's just because well it's brooks Kepkin. I also noticed you start with to Florida State seminoles there. I did not notice that, but uh yeah, you know, I had actually been thinking I had six guys in my outright portfolio, and I was trying to think, there's there's one more guy I want, and I want to take a little bit of a shorter shot because we mentioned earlier this is a pretty

chalky tournament. You typically don't have a triple digit long shot win this thing. In fact, I think it was the last eleven winners. The average pre tournament odds were less than forty two one, So I think that's kind of the threshold there. You don't want to do a

whole lot outside of forty two one. Uh. But Kepco was the guy I was thinking about adding a while back, and before he withdrew from the Honda, and I think it was bay Hill or the work Day or he finished actually second at the work Day but took the time off had knee surgery exactly what will be twenty three days prior to teeing off at Augusta. So it is a gamble because we don't know about his health.

But I said, if brooks Kepta is telling me, and he said, I'm not entering because I think I can finish second Uh, if he thinks he can win, I'm gonna take his word at it and att one that's three or four times the normal price we see on brooks Kepta. So yes, I I took a stab with that. As far as Daniel Burger, Um, I think he's got a good shot to you know, he is such an expert at putting on Bermuda grass and I don't know if he's quite figured out the bent grass yet. He's

had one tremendous finish. I believe it was his first year playing the Masters. I believe had a top ten finish. Um. Guy's a great player and I absolutely love him as a Wryder cover. He's not on my list to win the Masters. Not on mine either. Joe curious about those two guys, and uh Um, I'll throw in one go ahead with those two. Yeah, we're talking about the two guys that have never missed a gun in Augusta. The

Burger three for three and kept the five five. That doesn't necessarily mean there are there are a horse for the course. As I always say, you gotta look at the numbers a little deeper. But both of them shine in their histories here Um and Burger, I have is a top ten. Um, and I think he is is a threat to you know, he's not going to pull away from the field, but in a bunch field like we had two years ago when Tiger Wood h Daniel Burger skill set is is definitely uh you know, uh,

he has a path to victory. Um. I have him as a top ten that with Brooks keptib Look, I've got to make the cuts somewhere right because there's so many laite guys. Um, you're absolutely right. If brookes Kepki is healthy forty tw one, is is a steel in terms of implied odds versus actual odds. Um. But I you know, I just made the choice that I was going to figure he's hobbled in some way, um, either

in rust or from an actual injury. But you know, he's one of the best golfers in the world, and he's he's played outstanding uh in all five of his uh you know, all all five of his efforts here. Um. You know, he plays actually has an adjustment. You know, he plays almost a half stroke better per round at the Masters than he does during the hit those same tournaments before and after the Masters. So he's definitely a

horse for the course. Um, but like I say, I'm omitting him just because I have to make some cuts somewhere. You're in great form before he pulled out with injury to finish second at the Concession and won the Phoenix Open. You're you're you're so right Joe about. You do have to you do have to draw the line somewhere because otherwise,

you know, you've got twenty guys. Brian Rodgers just came up here was he was your stand in here or you're sitting and he said, I have bets already, not twenty nine different golfers, but upwards of like fifteen and twenty already. So it's like you can't go crazy in this. Um. All right, last last golfer before I let you get to it. Jordan's Speef, who just came off a win at the Larow Texas Open, who has had obviously is it already has a green jacket, has had great success

on this course. Uh. How do you view someone who is now all the way down to eleven to one in the group of the elite, the ROMs and the j t S and the Deshambos of the world. Do you just come at least stay away from him Joe. Well, uh, let's let's let me take on one hand. On the other hand, on one hand, Jordan's spee is is even better than Tiger and Phil in terms of history at

the Masters. Now, obviously that's only twenty eight rounds in his case, and and we're getting here, we're getting in the upper double digits for Phil and Tiger when you talk about their histories. But Jordan's speet has entered seven times, He's played twenty eight rounds here, and he has average more strokes game per round than any player who's ever

played UH, at least in this era. I think with last year's slight slump, he fell behind Ben Hogan in terms of career, but he's he's up there in terms of the greatest Masters players per round in the history of the event. So, and it makes sense because as you talked about earlier, it is a second course, UH, it is a second shot course. UH. And he has been a wizard with the Irons at least since I've been able to measure his strokes gain since sixteen UM. And he can get hot with and Potter, as we

all know. So there is a case that if he is in UH fourteen fifteen sixteen. Jordan's peak form, you know, he should be a top I. On the other hand, uh, he has been hot for three months, so he has a nice, you know, sort of UM form for the last twenty round. But if you pull that lens back to even just forty rounds or fifty, you would say, hey, there's a lot of guys that have come in winning the Houston Open and having looked ten or eleven to one UM. I think that's an insanely short price. So yes,

I'm certainly staying away from him. I am too, Yeah, the the price is absolutely prohibitive. Now, when he shot sixty one at the Phoenix Open, you still could have gotten him at fifty two one and I'd love to have that ticket in my pock um and Joe, you know,

you talk about his iron play. It's probably the first time in three years and seven months that's when he last won the British Open at Royal Birkdale, that he and you mentioned this three month period that he's been so hot, he's actually been finally finally gaining strokes with his irons once again. He hasn't done that basically since he's gotten on this role. So that's a great sign for Jordan's speed, But no, I can't bet him and

because the price absolutely is keeping me out. Before we get into Joe and Brady's individual bets on the masters, first guys, question about allocation of your funds. What percentage of your betting pie is on outrights? What percentage is on derivative markets like top tens in top twenties? What percentage would you say is on hit to hit? Yeah, I'll step up. UM, I will tell you I have more in the outright market. So for me, the outright

market will be in terms of actual capital laid out. UM, I will have more than ten percent of what I'm gonna bet on this market overall on the outrights, which is more than any other event. Um. One is because it's fun, Um, but two is gil I'm telling you you're where you're sitting. The circle is doing to revolutionize or to make attractive futures betting on a big event

like this by lowering that hole, uh is man. If it catches on across the industry, they are going to realize that lower margins leads to higher handle and ultimately a better bottom line, even though it takes more skill to manage the book. Obviously, Sirka knows this, and I just cannot give those guys a big enough compliment for pushing the industry in that direction. As you know, Gil, I tried to get on that side of the industry and actually operate one of these and this was the exact,

you know, sort of business model I had. So, you know, kudos to them, and and I think it hopefully it will lead to more more, more of what you call the pre flop um and you mentioned about in game. I am not betting Justin Thomas free flop because of his of his putting, you know, april putting woes at the Master's uh if you know, but he look, it's justin Amis if he is lurking after Thursday and Friday and he's showing me that the putting is carrying over

from November. Uh, he's the one guy I'm kind of targeting in game. What would it give me the parameters of that? So let's just throw out some hypotheticals. If j T were uh six strokes backs, because this famously is not a catchup course either, right, So let's say it's let me not make it six, let me make

it harder. Let's say it's five strokes back and he balloons to one that is somewhere in that sort of range, like what would it take talking after round one or after after round one round three, Let's say after round one and well, here here would be my here's here would be my demarcation point. Is he positive strokes gain potting or not? You know, if he if he got to where he did by chipping something in or you know he's just dialed and with the irons, but still

to putting from from eleven feet consistently. It's not a bet for me. But if he's showing me that he has sort of mastered these greens, then I think he does have a Jordan's Speak two thousand eighteen tight comeback, even though that was a near comeback, but remember he almost ran down Patrick Reed and Justin Thomas can do that with against any front runner on any course. If you know, if he can show me he's putting these

these greens. And and then the derivative markets like top ten, top twenty, and the head to heads, is that like even between the two of those categories, well no much much more on head to head to guild because that's where the hold is the you know, it's not a dime line, um, but it's still it's much more pure, right, It's a head to head batch up in terms of how I'm handicapping guys. Uh, and it's you know, it's

just playing with the standard minus one ten line. I almost never do top I never do first ground leaders because the hold is insane. I never do three balls for the same reason. Um. But the on top tens. Look, I print, I published a top ten every year for the Masters, so I do I do bet this every year? Um? And I well, you know, I'll put it. I'll put all top all my top ten plays in there. But as always, I always consider all that other stuff, entertainment, the you know, the the I plan. I believe I

have positive ev on my matchup bets. I don't necessarily think that when I'm having fun doing futures and you know, top ten stuff makes sense, how about you. Yeah, I'll probably have about maybe let's say thirty of my outlay in the outright markets, and then uh, you know, let's see,

probably will be uh in the top ten. And I'm doing the math wrong here, but I'll have the smallest portion in the outright market, and I'll probably have about one and a half times that risk on the top twenty, in the top tens, and then the rest that the largest portion of my pie will be on head to head matchups. That's where I'm going to risk the most all for the tournament, not round by ray erect I just for some reason, I am not good at round

a round head to head matchups. I'm much more successful on the full tournament, and I think I'm just better at figuring out how a guy's skill set is going to manifest over four days. It's kind of like trying to bet a football game for one quarter. Um, anything can happen in one round of golf. So I have been very good in head to head matchups for the entire tournament, and that's where my biggest risk will be.

Um Joe, you talk about the top tens, in the top twenties, I have kind of started to gravitate more towards the top twenty. Obviously you're getting a lower price, but you double your ability to win, and I have found that those are good bets. I like the top twenty market a lot. Now you get a low price guy like aeor Justin Thomas. I might go top ten with him, um, but a lot of other than my

shortest shots. I'll probably go top twenty with uh. And then how many times have you had guys finished twelve exactly? That's the tough part, But I've had plenty finished twenty second to But um, I like that top twenty market. I think I do better than the top ten. And then the outrights. I have seven of them, and on my least amount of risk, let's start there. It is that time. Who have you? Who have you been out right? So? And we've talked about this. The Masters is kind of

a chalky tournament. I took two flyers on guys that I think have a puncher's chance, but at the time that I bet him, their numbers were so far, so much of an outlier versus the rest of the market. I said, I got to try it, and that was Jason co Crack, and I got him at a hundred and seventy to one. Now he's kind of come back. When I got it. Everywhere everywhere else had him at a hundred, and I got him at a hundred and seventy.

Now he's probably in the neighborhood of a hundred and fifty the other guy, and I think he does have a shot. He he has some things that makes sense. He's been in good form. He wanted Shadow Creek, which I think is a correlated course. Uh. The other guy is Francesco Molinari. Now he hasn't been in great farm. He started to return to form a little bit uh in one. Obviously he was there on Sunday with Tiger before we put the ball in the water got him a hundred and twenty five. Now he has started to

drift up act towards that neighborhood. But again when I bought him, a lot of people were trading him at seventy five to one. So so those were my two long shots, and then the rest of the guys I think are substantial bets that really have a good chance to win this thing. I did go with Justin Thomas Joe, and what I love about Justin Thomas is my first bet on him was at plus fifteen twenty five. And then when he uh he created in a tournament recently, it was before he won the players and he drifted

up to nineteen to one. So I bought more at nineteen to one on Justin Thomas definitely like that number that's long gone at this point after he won the players, I did take Kepta at forty to one. I took Patrick Cantley, who I got it thirty to one, which was a nice number. He's down closer to twenty two or what have you at this point. And Matthew Fitzpatrick got him a while ago at a hundred to one. He's now down to about forty one, so nice prices.

There's my card. Uh oh, Louis Eustas and Louis Eustas and I got at seventy five to one, and he's still in that neighborhood. Joseph. Yeah, in those last two names you mentioned, are you know, favorites of mine way up the boards. I will try to play them in all matchups that I can uh and and Fitzpatrick and Eustas and Um. I think that because both of the well, Ustasen has always played very well here. He is very

good tea green here. Um and you know he obviously he's getting up in age, but I do like that. But I think for a guy that far up the board, I think his outrights are undervalued. So I will try to take advantage of that. Elsewhere. Same with Fitzpatrick and with the other guy all a little closer down down the range is camp Smith. Um, he did not come

out of nowhere last year. Uh at Augusta. That was his fourth trip here, and he'd actually had a very solid um strokes gains history on his twelve rounds before the four last year. Uh So he is also a uh an outright play of mind, but the serious because those odds are so high you don't have to put a lot of capital down to get some sort of payoff the guys though that I'm really serious about up in the elite section. Um. And it is a chalky tournament.

I haven't always done that. Gil was you know, two years ago I wrote a whole book, uh, you know, explaining coming to the conclusion that that Tony fen Now was gonna win the Masters. And um, obviously that was a thrilling uh you know Saturday for me and and the last day I was the only person in America probably not rooting for Tiger on Sunday. Um. But it is more chalky this year. Uh. Female still definitely has

the t uh T degree t to green game. Um, it's only gotten, you know, it's only stayed strong in Augusta. But um, you know, the putting and and really the volatility he the volatility isn't there in his game to get to plus fourteen plus sixteen strokes, a game that you need to win a tournament. And you know, I've gotten burned enough times having him in the top five, um and and not breaking through, so that I am

a chalky with my two favorite plays. They are John Ram and uh Xander Shafley out of the sort of elite group. Neither of them are the you know, they're they're they're better prices than you get from DJ or or Thomas or speak. Um, I really think Rom should be favored to win this tournament. Honestly, Um, it's and and that is how I'm playing it. And I have

a uh, you know, like I have. I have put a substantial you know, in terms of the what I'm putting in the outrights almost you know, the biggest majority of it goes to Rom. I'm not really sprinkling. This isn't really a sprinkle situation. As much as I think Rom should be favorite. And if I'm getting him at eleven thirteen, I've seen him at fourteen. It was fourteen and a quarter at the Circle when they posted just two nights go. Um, I think that that that's my play.

And I think Xander Shafley also is as the course history here um and and as in current form and intermediate form to be a real factor. Um. It's I will say, way up the board, way, way way up the board. At Circa, Justin Rose is a hundred and thirty to one. Justin Rose, except for missing the cut in twenty nine, he has played superbly here. I cannot get my hands around a world where Justin Rose is a hundred thirty to win at Augusta or at least at Circle. Now most of your other books you're gonna

get fifty six to one, etcetera. Um, but I've seen a lot of hundreds. I would not hesitate. If I were just walking through the casino and saw that, I would take out at least fifty bucks and just throw it that, you know, at a hundred thirty to one. And because that's um that that to me just looks interesting. And maybe he's hurt, maybe the equipment is still causing him problems, but it's it's uh. That one really opened

my eyes. I bet Kepka just like you on a flyer just in case, um, Cameron Smith, and then I went super Chucky. At the top two I went John Rom Justin Thomas and fifth and final Bryson Deshamber, which is a self loathing prevention bet, Which is what I want to ask you guys about, who's the one guy that you don't have a pre flop bet on who if he wins, it will cause you the most self loathing. Joe, would it be Tony Fenwe, then, I guess would answer, I mean, although I would be so happy for him. Um,

normally it would be Jason Day. Jason Day is on my do not trade list because of how many times I have gotten either screwed by him or and then uh in both ways either betting on him or not betting on him. Uh. You know the most famous in my in my case being I think I had him at the Arnold Palmer and he and I had him like loaded in dfs and in in matchup bets, and he left the course after the fifth hole. And you know, if he had not teed off, everything would have been refunded.

He left the course after the fifth hole and then was seen at Disneyland with his at Disney World in the afternoon, and yes, that was so he sort of fits that. I think you'll this week, though, it would be Rory because he's so damn good and I haven't even considered betting on him, and because I'm just saying, hey, he's not Rory anymore because of the last nine months,

and that might be foolish. It might be foolish. Having written him often, I would be chagrined, if you know, if he won, like wire to wire, I'm right with you. I even said on the radio and on a numbers game on Visa this morning that if I were to find a make miscut our kid, I would love to see what the price is on Rory. I was told after the show by someone who tweeted in forgive me for not knowing who it was, that the no is four to one. I could kind of see myself maybe

taking a flyer on that. Rory's telling us he's not playing well. He's made good on that promise so far in recent weeks. Uh, So that's one guy I would consider there too, So I'd be right in the same boat with you. I'm with you, though, Joe. If Rory were to go on to win, it was kind of like brooks kept Goa when he won at Phoenix, where I think his odds were in the neighborhood of thirty to one, and it's, you know, I'm trying to correct myself for my past mistake and bet on him this time.

When he was forty two one. There were a lot of people that had Brooks kept at the Phoenix and they said, when do you get brooks kept? Get thirty plus two one or whatever. It's kind of the same thing with Rory here. We've seen him as high as nineteen to one. Maybe he'll go to twenty. That's a really big number on Rory McElroy. So we'll all be kicking ourselves as we say, geez, why didn't we grab twenty two one on one of the greatest players of all time? For sure? Yeah, and it's it's not just

all time. If you look at he is the best driver of the golf ball at Augusta since and the only person who was in his realm is Bubba Watson. So without question, Groory is the best right handed driver of the golf ball um in this generation at Augusta. The numbers he puts up strokes gained wives driving is incredible, so yeah, he he he gets that advantage off the tea.

So it's yeah, I mean, I'm overlooking the guy who very possibly is going to be in better position standing over a second shot than everyone else as a tournament goes on. But we'll sit. Wasn't at last? It was November too, where I think he finished top ten and in the opening round, so he found his game for three out of the four rounds. For sure, I assume that neither of you. Maybe I shouldn't assume this. We're doing this Tuesday afternoon right here at the Circle pool.

Obviously the Masters more than thirty six hours away, But so I'm gonna assume that you don't have any head to heads yet in your helts. I did play two Okay, go ahead, go ahead, Joe? What he got? Yeah, I have a number of them, but I will tell you my favorite one. And and I have noticed now that it's it's not like there's a Vegas rotation around matchups that different books to you know, are having play different matchups.

But I got Ian Palter versus uh Phil Mickelson at and it it became my largest matchup that I kind of went two acts on on that versus what I was putting on everybody else, And I'll go ahead, Uh yeah, there it is. I got Pulter minus one of thirty verse Phil Nicholson over four rounds. I mean, look, unless Phil is it is pulling magic. And by the way, his putting has disintegrated at the Masters as his age

has going on. Um Ian Palter has a great history on this course, and he's yeah, he's just a better golfer now than than Phil Nicholson. And that that's no slight at Phil, but he just can't consistently put together eighteen holes autolown seventy two. I I salivated it minus one thirty on Ian Poulter, and Ian Poulter just coming off a great performance at the match play and Austin and Phil when we talk about public teams and other sports,

feels about as public as a coach. Yeah, And I think you know that kind of ties into Joe's bed here, that you're probably getting a really good price on Ian Poulter because the other guy is Phil Mickelson. Yeah, so you're not finding those matchups universal from book to book

this time around. You know, Well, somebody was telling me last night they're like, hey, hey, you know I mentioned we were mentioned golfers that might be uh for instance, you were talking about Fitzpatrick and or maybe it was Cam Smith and you know, guys that I like, but their only matchup market from my guy the books I was looking at was against Webb Simpson, who I also kind of think is undervalued. So it's not that's not how I want to express bullishness on on Cam Smith

or or Fitzpatrick. And then one guy was telling me, oh, my book, uh you know, he's he's maxed up with five different guys, and I'm like, you know, and so uh, these these are either offline or you know, paper heads, etcetera. So it just uh, you know, and sometimes people quote me stuff and I'm like, I can't find that for my guys. Yeah, there's kind of one universal set of ships. Then there's like half a dozen others, so it is kind of a crap shooting. Care to share the other

one that you had besides Poulter over over filled? Oh that was the one, uh Gil, That was the one that I put the two acts on. There was one other one that I did a one and a half axle, the h Woaukie Waukee Neiman also Joaki Neemon minus one fifty over Max Homa. Um, and this sort of goes to Brady's thing about the Debutant said, and uh, um, I just you know, I think Neim max Holm is a great story. Um, you know, California kid. And the winning at Drive was was amazing. That was obviously his

life goal. Um. I think it's a step up in class here. And and woaukein Neiman is is in much better form over the last you know, six months when you look at a round a round basis than uh, you know, even though he doesn't have the win that you know, sort of a high profile win that Holmer does. Yeah, I'm with you. Neiman has played here. Neiman played here as a as an amateur. I think it was three years ago, two or three years ago and made the cut.

By the way, all de wut Wu tant mentioned unders cash when you said it early in the podcast less for five minutes, what did you bet head to hit? I am on Joakin Neemon as well. I was hoping Joe gravitated towards the same one, but I took Joakin Neemon minus one thirty over Abraham answer and Joe talked about how Abraham Answer had a great showing and then fell off the pace, and I think maybe he's possibly

a victim of the November's conditions. Uh, he might find a much different complex here with the drier, faster, firmer conditions. And you talked about Niemen. Joe Neiman is a phenomenal player, and look what he did earlier in the year. I think he was minus forty sixty six under par for the two Hawaii tournaments and didn't win. I also think there's some correlation between Coppola, where he came in second, uh to augusta national Nieman as a guy I might do a top twenty bet on as well, but like

him in that head to head over Abraham Answer. And then uh, two guys, Joe, I wonder what your opinion on this one is. I took Danny Burger at minus one thirty five over Cam Smith. Oh see, that's another example of where I think both the guys are relatively undervalued in terms of their you know, just odds. In general, I do like Burger. I mean I've got Burger in

a top ten. Uh that ed Uh, you know, I'm looking at at my neutral ranking since the restart Daniel Burger and this is adjusted for field strength is number six in terms of strokes game per rame and the five guys ahead of them, uh in order JT busting Johnson, Bryson, Zander and John rom And. So Burger is in rarefied company up there in terms of who has played best on a per round basis since the restart. Uh. And he's got a nice history here, he has a path

to victory. Okay, Um, First of all, there's a whole cross section of our audience that appreciates you betting Burger. Yes, I won't say who, but we appreciate it, you know what I mean? Uh? And then uh, finally guys, then top ten, top twenties. I guess you're some of the guys that you've been out right in some of your matchups. You just sort of funnel into those. Probably not everyone. I think Jason co crack I might find a spot for in the top twenty. Uh. Probably a Fitzpatrick as well.

I think JT. I'll take. With the top ten, I'll probably stay away from Kepka. You know that that's a gamble of a play and and if it's the right gamble, he's gonna be in the mix, but I'm not gonna mess around with probably any more investment on him. Uh uh, can't Lee. I'll probably do for a top twenty as well. Um. I haven't quite dived into that market head first just yet. Same with you, Joe, Yeah, exactly. The only guy that that is in my that I have a top ten

on that we hadn't talked about before is Can't Lee. Um. I will look guys at the top twenties. I am going to look exclusively for higher price guys that have a nice course history who maybe haven't played well over the last year because of age. So we're talking about here in Matt Coucher, Um, like I said Justin Rose earlier, Um, Oost Hazen, Adam Scott, all these guys, Haddeki Matsuyama who used to be a stalwart in my top ten bets

the last two years. Um. And these are guys that have very nice histories here, um that I think might make them attractive top twenty bets. I love it, guys. I can't thank you enough. I can't thank the people at Circus Sports enough. Derrick Stevens, Mike Palm Stadium Swim. What a backdrop with here. This is terrible. Joe. You gotta you can. You should never come here. It's awful. Sorry about the weather. Joe appreciated man, Joe Pete, everybody at Magic rat SF on Twitter. It's a Bruce Springsteen

uh uh nod on his Twitter handle. Where can people get the Tour Guide, which is still very applicable, and where can they find anything you will be doing in the future. Yeah, the the the Tour Guide En event, which which does give some nice Masters stories and and background on on the Strokes gained uh is still an Amazon um, and hopefully I'm aiming for a hardcover book. UM that will really be a sort of hopefully a tome on the Masters in the Strokes Gained era. UM.

You know, we'll we'll look out for that. But the goal is pre Christmas publication for all those fathers, sons, you know, stocking stuff free Christmas one we're talking that's right. Wow, I love it, Joe Pete, everybody, Joe, thank you so much.

Brady Cannon, host of long Shots, the greatest golf beending show there ever has been in on Earth at Visa and when she does with West Reynolds and Matt Humans and the podcast version of long Shots in edition with s v P on both this time around, this listen week going to be great. Thank you very much for having me and honor to be with you two guys. Joe have admired your work for a long time. Thanks for stopping by. Man, Thank you, Joe. Appreciate you guys.

I'm half faxed. I will be fully faxed and maybe out there for the p G A or the U S open and will certainly say hi, yes, half vaxed. I am fully vexed both of you. So thank you all eighty five masters, Thanks for listening. Good luck with all your bets from all of us on the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy Yeah,