Monday morning, April twenty second, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book podcast. NFL Draft for twenty twenty four, it's Gill Alexander. This is always one of my favorites during the year and has been, with the exception of last year, among our most consistently profitable. In fact, we always had a profitable NFL draft until last year. Still looking for where I can cash my CJ. Stroud going to get pick number one tickets all three at plus
money prices somewhere. I'm sure it's available today. On the show, something Old, something New that has done to NFL drafts with us before is Drew Dinsik. You know Whale Capper on Twitter, Whale Underscore Capper of course co host of the Deep Dive podcast with a Moletor and NBC Sports at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. Drew, thank you for being here, as always.
Us an honor and privilege. The Megapod Draft edition. You haven't talked football and so long. This is going to be super.
Fun, super fun and new to the show, new to the pod. I just had him on a Numbers game last week. We've had him in previous years on the radio side, but never on the podcast side. You know him from Twitter as Vegas Refund. It's Luke Swayne. How you doing, Luke, Thanks for doing this.
Thanks for having me. I'm excited for this.
Yeah.
He draft is common.
And you too. Right, let's just start there. We were going through your NBA draft and your NFL draft profits over the last three years. It's all plus money except for last year's NFL draft.
Right, Yes, And last year's NFL draft was cha Austin here we are. I feel like the last year's NFL draft was kind of the reset we needed because we have two acts, maybe three acts, the amount of markets this year compared to last and I'm willing to throw that one in the bag if it means that we're back to.
Norm Okay, well, let me let me just start with and we were deciding where do we go with this because obviously some numbers are gone, some are still available. But let me I guess through what you said off air. I want to start with that you feel like this is a little different of a draft for you than others.
Yeah, I mean like yes, the last uh you know, two drafts ago was probably uniquely awesome. That was the one where Trayvon Walker went first, and you know, a couple of weeks before the draft, he was like sitting there at thirty three to one, and you know you had some real deal like good info buzz.
That was coming from teams. Uh.
And then last year that was I think also the case. I mean, it definitely was pretty telegraphed that Bryce Young was going to go one. By the day of the draft, you know, there was huge disagreement about what the Texans were going.
To do obviously with the you know, pick number two.
And ultimately I'm still not sure I know the true full story of exactly how they landed on CJ. Stroud at number two, but you know, it gave them the opportunity to kind of box out the Titans, who were going to trade up to three for Stroud, and then they traded up to Read because they had the best offer, and they get Will Anderson as well, and the rest is history as far as kind of putting in two
foundational pieces offensive defense to build your franchise. So it's you know that that was an interesting draft and just sort of the fact that things unfolded so late for them getting those second and third picks really kind of did change the entire fabric. And yeah, so that was unpredictable, It was fun, it was interesting. I lost a decent
chunk on the on that particular outcome. Although Anthony Richardson going forth was a huge makeup for me because I had a lot of under I think was four and a half or five and a half for Richardson and that was a huge, a huge relief. But yeah, last year there was just it felt like a lot of noise maybe but just a lots of speculation, lots of people had like information and opinions, and this year it
feels very much the opposite. I think everything we've gotten to this point in this draft cycle, as far as the information goes, has been coming from agents. It's been coming from you know, represent player, probably a rep, camps, publicists, things like that. And you know, if you put sort of the people who are in the NFL space, like the checkters of the world, like I kind of assume he gets almost all of his information from agents and pr people, uh, and so you're.
Only getting half the story.
Just just just what is their vibe, how, how do they think teams are evaluating them, Where do they likely think they are going to go and very very very
little is coming from the NFL side of things. And if you know, this cycle comes and goes and there's like a like a you know, kind of a fourth page sports section story on like Sunday, that's like, yeah, So the NFL had like a sent a memo out to all the teams, and I was just going to double down how important it was not to leak information, Like if that kind of comes to light after the draft, I'll be oh, Okay, Now this all makes makes a lot more sense because outside of a couple of kind
of the usual suspects, the Pittsburgh Stealers of the world, the cults of the world, where they're kind of telegraphing where they're going positionally, like, there is just lots of speculation based on team need only, based on you know, agents trying to wrap their players, and that stuff is notoriously poor information to bet on in my opinion.
Well so that you brought it there before I could get to it, because to me, the takeaway is is this by design by the league with the you know, not only the advent of gambling becoming legalized in twenty eighteen, but now like the NFL. Finally you know, these many years later getting oh people bet on this stuff, them
doubling down on this. It does. It does sort of you know, tip us off to that is a possibility that maybe it is by design where the NFL is saying, listen, let's tamp down on this, let's not come out and say stuff. And if that's the case, if we believe that, then is this going to be the case with drafts moving forward as well. I'm not sure how you feel about it.
Luke, Yeah, I think last year was a great learning experience where I don't know if it's just gambling becoming more mainstream, but it does feel like the leaks in the past were kind of like.
The lower level like coaches or scouts, et cetera.
Where I don't think those lower level leaks in the past are getting the same information that they might have in the past, probably based off of it. And honestly, like I feel more confident this year with less like smoke out there.
I like it.
It feels this one feels like almost like an NBA draft where we kind of just like know who's going to go in the top ten or maybe even the top thirty two. And just figuring out that order is of course the hardest part. But there's way more, excuse me, way less like land mines in my opinion, that can like jump in and create chaos that would cause a
domino effect the years past. And I don't know if that's just because we have less info or there's less intel out there, et cetera, or what, but it just feels a lot different than last year, which is probably a good thing.
Okay, well let's let's actually let's start there then, so we know Caleb. We all are convinced Kaylin Williams is going number one to the Chicago Bears. We all agree on that. Okay, after that, and I think, if I'm proud of myself for one thing in this draft, because I have a bunch of bets. But there was a couple markets that I didn't expect to enter at all, and one of them was who's going to get picked second? And I am a Washington commodore's fan by birth, and
I was convinced along they would take Jaden Daniels. And then we saw this weird movement last week at the end of last week where the money went away from Jayden Daniels the price crashed it. I think it got as low as minus one fifteen or minus won ten even Friday morning, I did a numbers game and I did the whole first segment on this, and I bet Jayden Daniels at minus one twenty five, not at its bottom.
But I was like, well, I wasn't gonna bet this at all, but now you guys have forced me to bet this, right, so I sort of let the draft come to me. There are you as convinced as I am? And I'll get my reasons a minute, But are you guys as convinced as I am that Jayden Daniels is going number two to wash it?
I don't have any skin on this one because kind of to Luke's ploy, like, well, number one, liquidity was always a little poor in this market. Uh they you know, it was the only market up offshore for weeks and weeks and weeks, but it was tilted pretty heavily. Jaydan Daniels, he was in the minus three hundred range when there was a price crash and people were kind of getting in at at rock bottom prices on him that it
was only legal shops. It wasn't offshore, that I can tell you, and so yeah, it was you know, I'm I you know, whatever order two and three go. You know, as long as there are two quarterbacks, it doesn't really change my outcome whatsoever here And uh, I don't know.
I think a lot of the a lot of it was just speculation, again coming from his agent and his team because they were, you know, kind of rankled that the the the commodoors, as you put it, we're flirting with other quarterbacks instead of just kind of making it clear that they had their guy and number two was very clearly Jayden Daniels and his team is uh, you know, is a little uh just a little wrinkled.
But yeah, I don't, I don't. I don't really care how it goes.
Yeah, standpoint, well I do now because again I entered it when I wasn't going to. But it's my thinking was simply this, and you're right, it was because the you know, the Taco holders, if you look at their logo, just look at taco holder, a taco you know, the
taco shop they are. You know, yes, they brought in all four guys, not not Nicks, not Caleb, but the other four quarterbacks perspective quarterbacks in the first round Butterman all together, and then and then Jayden daniels agent liked a couple tweets that were critical of that, including one from Mike Florio. Also, Jayden Daniels apparently met with the Viking, so that crashed the number. My thinking was this, Adam Peters, this is more of a human thing than a football thing.
Adam Peters, while being the GM for a first time GM, and while working for a new owner, supposedly has carte blanche there in Washington, do whatever he wants to do. But he's also a human being. And in the end, I think the human element of you are motivated more by just as much, if not more, by fear as you are by just being singularly in a vacuum for success.
In other words, if you draft Drake May and it fails, the repercussions of that are going to be far greater than if you draft jayde and Daniels and it fails. And I think ultimately that's really my biggest point of it. There's football ones too, which is if you believe Jade and Daniels is going to be good quicker than Drake May, they're actually set up kind of nicely at wide out and at running back, and they have thirty six and forty they could trade up and get an offensive lineman.
So there's also that, But I just think it's the human thing for me, where it's like, nah, I better kind of go with the safer in quotes of the two because who knows, relatively speaking, how safe None of us know really when any of these guys will be in the end. And then he doesn't have history with this team. I get that as well, but he also has to be well aware of the muscle memory of the franchise itself and the fan base, which is we just drafted a UNC quarterback two years ago that didn't
work out so well. And the last time they had a number two pick and they drafted a quarterback, RG three was great until the injury. So I just think that you put all that in the mix. I just think it's Jade Daniels Luke what happens at two and three?
I mean right now, like I'm definitely leading Jaden to Drake three, and we've like, I mean, every year, it feels like odds are just flipping on his face by the hour, where we are just stuck in a loop and Drake May has kind of felt like the CJ strout of last year, where he's been here was the consensus for so long, and then everyone was kind of like beating him down where you might even see him fall to like the eight range, which would be crazy.
And then of course he kind of like the levels off and he goes back to where he's been projected this whole time. And really like the reasons behind like Jayden not going to right now are just like between like the agent on Twitter, or like the poor meetings with Washington and if we don't think anyone knows anything like those are the type.
Of stories that are just yes to me, that like how can you buy that?
So like I have no reason not to think it's Jade at two. But like Drew said, like as long as these two go two and three, the rest will pan out how we're projecting. There's not a lot of chaos like a low levis falling to the second round and everything is crazy after that. But I would say Jade and two right now. But it doesn't take much for me to put my opinion to Drake. There are connections, like I think like Drake May's dad played for like someone on the staff in Washington.
I saw it.
Yesterday like there's just narratives everywhere. No one has anything better to talk about right now, oh quarterbacks.
So I asked, I asked this question of everybody who I talked draft with, and I probably asked it of you two when you're on the radio side, which is what do you think you absolutely know for sure in the first round and where do you believe the chaos might begin. Let's start with the first, which is what do you think you know for sure? Luke?
So I know what I think I know for sure is four quarterbacks and three receivers go in the top ten. And then in terms of chaos, I think the real chaos can or two scenarios. One, if JJ doesn't go top five, which I still think will go top ten, he doesn't go top five, that's one chaos scenario, which
would be like the Vikings not trading in. And the second one would be at the Bears at nine, where I think there's a scenario, very likely scenario where the Jets trade into eight and maybe just like trade spots with the Falcons which would only cost a third rounder and a Dunees goes before the Bears what the Bears do at nine is a chaos scenario that I don't think really anyone knows, and everyone kind of just really bows out to the question of what will happen and
just says they want to trade down, which trading down is a lot harder than I think. It's way harder than just saying it and hedging whatever analysis you have. But four quarterbacks, three receivers, one offensive line. So that's I think there's eight guys locked into the top ten and the kass is nine if A Dunes doesn't fall.
Okay, so not before that, because it's interesting because I had someone on air today Mike Samitch, who thought the chaos begins at three, So that's interesting. Drew, same question, what do you know for sure?
I think the Pittsburgh Steels are going to take an offensive lineman. I think the Cults are going to take a wide receiver.
I think no.
I generally agree that that's you know, the likelihood of the top ten is pretty fixed, and then you know the number of names and players is not that broad. Brock Bauers is kind of interesting at ten if at all they have chances that they're you know, if JJ does not go in the top five, then things do get interesting, and I guess I have a theory that
i'd like to float. This is entirely this is not informed by information, And maybe it's important to qualify a lot of this because you know, people will listen to this and assume that, you know, maybe we're hiding the fact that I actually know something that I honestly this
is just pure speculation. When the Vikings made the move to get a second first rounder, this was now a long time ago, and in the moment you did the map and you're like, oh my gosh, that's enough capital now with those first round picks in next year's one to move up to three, like they could you know, they're they're going for it, like they're setting up, you know, the chess pieces in order to make this move to go get a quarterback, like you could see it all happening.
And I agreed, like, yes, that's clearly like that's what was telegraphed. But it also had a secondary, you know, secondary effect, which is anyone else kind of in their range who might be interested in trading up for a quarterback.
Now you can't beat Minnesota's offer, right, And so to a degree, it's like, well, you know, if you're if you're the Raiders, if you're you know, the Broncos, you're like, well, we're not beating that, so we might as well just you know, kind of just figure out what we're going to do here, as opposed to really kind of entertain an idea of a trade up. And so it had an effective effectively reading out anyone else who was in the market for QB four. Now they're just you know,
we'll just sit here and see who's available. And so ultimately, if they don't have to make that trade and they get the guy they want at eleven, that would be a pretty like kind of masterful, you know, kind of way to manipulate the process.
Uh.
And ultimately, if you know, somebody like the Broncos says, okay, fine, you know, we'll give you all of our picks and all in all future rounds, blah blah blah, we we want to come up. The Vikings still do have you know, the assets this year that are more appealing to teams like the Chargers and the Cardinals and even maybe even the Patriots. And so just the fact that they have to first this year is enough, I think to trump
basically any other offer that comes to fruition. Uh. And if ultimately you know the fact that the teams that are interested in quarterbacks are NFC ANFC West teams, and you know, and and they're like, Okay, well, you know, we'll just we'll just let this one go, then I think maybe they're you know, there's a non zero chance that McCarthy just falls much late and the Vikings get
him after all without giving as much capital up. And I think that actually makes the most sense considering where talent evaluators have McCarthy.
Anyway, the big quarterback prop that everybody leans on is the over under four and a half, Much like with my Jade and Daniels number two, which I had no intention of getting involved in until the market moved. I had no intention of getting involved in the four and a half until the over got steemed north of three dollars. And I again, I didn't get it at its peak, but I got the under at four and a half. I ended up at plus one sixty. Some people got
north of two dollars for the under. Are we convinced because I'm not obviously by that bed that beyond Caleb Jaden Drake may and JJ McCarthy that either bo Nicks or Michael Pennix are absolutely going to be drafted in the first round. Are we convinced of that?
I think we can cost we can toss Boenix, right, I think so?
Yeah, I would agree. I think too.
I would probably say Panics is a better shot and we are stuck in the loop. It's the same debate every single year. I do think the need for the Broncos in Raiders is a lot higher than in years past, or like the Broncos are rolling out with it, right Jared Stidham, Yeah, it's I think the needs compared to years past are a lot stronger, that they're a lot more desperate to maybe take a guy like Nicks or
Pennix at twelve and thirteen. No shot, Like I don't think it would be crazy, maybe the twenties trading in. But at the same time, like I have a lot more interested in like the under six and a half trades than I do under quarterbacks, which still plus money, but you couldn't pay me to bet the over.
Couldn't pay the over on quarterbacks. Yeah, yeah, okay, I mean maybe this is a good bit. By the way, I apologize for the music. We do the show here at the d and Bar, Canada, so we're not in the studio and so sometimes they get the audio wrong. And so a little uh, little supertramp breakfast in America for those of you who may may know such things, if I can put on my old DJ hat again. So we're working on that. Uh, this is a good point before we get some other points. This is a
good point to say what we have bet already. Luke, Let's start with you, because they'll just give a sense of what you're thinking on some other things.
I don't think we have enough time in this show to go over what I've bet.
A How about the biggest ones, the ones that you like the best, that you wanted to throw out.
So so under six and a half trades is one that I kind of just bet it every year. And it does feel like you bet the under quarterbacks because you're stuck in a loop and it's the hype of the quarterback we see every single year. And it's the same thing with the trades, and we see everyone speaking to trades. Every team wants to trade down. You have teams that want to trade up every single year. Doesn't live up to the hype and this open at five and a half, it's up to six and a half.
It's even money on the under. I think that is.
Wow, a great bet because I mean there's nothing to go off of, like we don't know.
Anything.
But at the same time, like every team has x amount of players craded on their boards as first rounders, and things that I'm reading are those first round grades. Is in the range of like twenty to twenty two is like the estimate that teams probably have, which to me feels low, which isn't enough players to create six and a half trades.
Teams are just gonna straight up Yeah, six and a half trades is high to me.
Yeah, so maybe it's just one Usually it's like four and a half, five and a half. Maybe the JJ McCarthy like assumed trade is just adding one spot and it's really five and a half in the end. But I would only bet this under the overs only plus one thirty in the unders even money was draft odds like aren't real.
But yeah, I like this under.
I think the Broncos positional defensive line is great. The long shot that I like a lot that I bet is lot too, a lot to lot too. Man, I put your every name, but I'm pretty sold on him going to the Falcons. And at eight his ODDSCT like plus one fifty and they were like seven to one at one point.
He's the short shot now.
Right. I think it's it's coming down. I'm very sold on it.
I don't think his medicals are an issue, but I think betting into scenarios that the Falcons trade back. Even though I just like bet the under on trades, I think the Falcons and Jets is a no brainer trade for me, where the Jets jump the Bears to get a Duneesa and the Falcons flip with them and take a lot too at ten, which we're talking like twenty to one now, so everyone's been betting assuming they're going
to take a lot too at eight. But in the scenario which would only cost her third round pick, the Falcons taking lots to at ten at twenty to one,
I think is a great bet with scenario that. Honestly, I think my issue is like it makes almost too much sense that the Jets are just gonna jet and they won't do it, but like you would have to jump the Bears to go to Dunday, the Jets want to do Inday, pretty sure, they're like number one on their board costs basically nothing, and Douglas would be trading a pick that he might not even be able to use himself if he doesn't because he'll be out if they don't win.
So, just to clarify that bet is a lot to to go tenth is twenty to one. Correct, has nothing to do with the falcons. But that's your scenario where he ends up at ten.
Yeah, so instead of getting at like even odds, now go eight. Yeah, it's a likely scenario.
Got you. Yeah, I just wanted to clarify. So people are going to be looking for that and they'll be like, what are you talking about. No, it's just so a lot to to go tenth would be twenty to one. All right, Drew, what do you What do you like best that you bet?
Well?
I think Luke pointed out actually one of the better numbers on the board, which is the trades under six and a half.
I'm shocked that that's where that number is currently hanging.
And this is, of course, I'm assuming that the fine print is this is draft day trade. So the fact that the Vikings have already kind of made a trade to procure that first round or.
It is not not included in the count.
But the yeah, that that I don't think that's gonna sniff sniff's son, So that that under is awesome in terms of other kind of positional bets that I have in pocket, and I guess actually, let's talk about sort of macro. This draft is very very offensive rich there.
But I do think that kind of there has been a general cooling on the wide receiver pool available this year to where the you know, the likelihood of you know, seven wide receivers going around one I think is low, and I think the offensive lineman though you know, nine or ten is sort of a base line expectation, is totally fair. Quarterbacks at least four and then you know,
did one tight end and zero running backs. I think, you know, we're kind of in the mix where when they originally opened, positional totals and offense and defense were hanging in like the you know, eighteen and a half nineteen and a half range.
Like that was a no brainer over for the offensive players.
And then ultimately once some of the larger pools opened up and they were up to twenty one and a half, like it was pretty obviously a good opportunity to come back on the under for offensive players, I think the sweet spot and what would make me the happiest on draft day would be twenty one offensive players eleven defensive players, because that.
Would threat a beautiful needle.
And I think to do that you really have to kind of zero in on the wide receiver pool because you know, again like Brian Thomas, who was the fourth expected off the board, is kind of slipping because of some health issues. Mitchell is slipping because of you know, all kinds of you know reports about just his you know care, and then you know you're you're making a little bit of a reach if you're taking Worthy in round one just based on speed and not production.
Uh.
And I think all the rest of the guys are border lying around one anyway, like Mconkee and legged. So yeah, I think if there's one bridge jumper that I'm going to have a lot of in my pocket on Thursday, it's going to be under six and a half wide receivers in round one, And I honestly think you could see four or five, which would be you know, just a beautiful, no sweat, it would be I would be so happy.
But we we'll seal with you. Yeah, I would be on that sold deal as well.
Yeah if seven, Yeah, if the Chiefs take wide receiver number seven and pick thirty two, it's going to be a sad set stick of affairs.
And you know, like you could like the question is that Okay? Well, if the market thinks seven.
Is possible, but you're saying it's more like five or six at most, Well, where do the other picks go? Well, offensive lineman, surely, so many teams in the back half of the draft have needs it offensive and there are blue chip Round one talent all across the board. The guys that I've bet unders on kind of in that range include Graham Barton, who I think has a very clear home in Pittsburgh at twenty and I think the.
Fella out of Arizona, Jordan Morgan.
Have heard a lot of positive things from teams who are kind of in the late half of the first round in terms of his fit and his versatility and seemingly a huge positive character guy. So I have under on Morgan at thirty two and a half. I think
he goes in Day one. I have under on Graham Barton at twenty three and a half twenty one and a half and twenty and a half because I think his floor is twenty and I think ultimately, you know, the other part of the vacuum and the long shot that I'm taking swings on and again, like I like Luke's approach better if you can find if you have pools where you can find twenty to one on random stuff like a lot too landing ten, you know that type of you know, swinging for the fence is my
more my style betting the draft, but I don't have
access to those pools. So in terms of long shots, all I bet is over five and a half cornerbacks because I think ultimately, like there are a lot of team needs with cornerback in the light half of the first round, and I think, you know, there's five likely and a sixth being either Rake Straw or let me see who else has kind of had some buzz really but most mostly yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, Saints Trail and Rakestraw kind of being on the on the cusp of round one one of one or both of those guys
landing on the Chiefs with pick thirty two would be just sweet, sweet music. So yeah, let's get let's surprise on the number of cornerbacks. Let's get a little bit of uh, you know, push up some of these guys who think, we think are you know, kind of blue chip offensive lineman like Graham Barton and Jordan Morgan.
Uh.
And then let's have a.
Wide receiver, you know, kind of end in the five to six range as post to some teams reaching. And I think everybody's gonna have a prett happy draft, at least in my household.
If you if you ask me like one guy that I think no one is talking about, you haven't seen any mock that could go in the first it would be Saint Drel which is the nickel corner out of Michigan, and I would be extremely happy about it. But Barton is my favorite over under and it's not even close betting the under that I'm on as well at Barton. Yeah, I'm on the under twenty three and a half. It should have opened at twenty one and a half or at this point probably twenty and a half.
I think twenty and a half is what it probably should be now. Yeah, but there's twenty and twenty one, twenty one and a half out there now.
I'm looking for it right now. A lot too. By the way, the position number is under sixteen and a half minus one thirty five, just looking at Barton twenty one and a half under twenty one and a half minus one forty five here at circa anyway where I do this for him. By the way, the under six and a half wide receivers is minus two seventy but
still sounding like you still view that as value. When this show first started, I was going to ask the way you got the way at least you were talking to you, I was gonna be like, well, so if I gave you like a small profit right now, would you take it? But as this has gone on, it sounds like you wouldn't take it, like you expect to still make big time here, oh.
Right where we're sitting right now. If I have a losing draft day, I'll be very expressed.
Okay. The other thing I said this this morning. I don't know that this point means anything in the scheme of things, because we're all just trying to win bets. But it just does occur to me that this point never gets made about the NFL Draft. We are trying to hit where every draft room's brains are Thursday Night,
April twenty six. So if we were betting into this, if this was a week before or a week after, five days before, five days after, two days before, two days after, the thinking for some of these teams might be completely different, right, So we're just trying to hit a moment in time perfectly, Drew. Drew has made an expression.
You don't like that, no, no, yeah, exactness of all this as wild?
Yeah, yeah, Like it's just that I don't think that gets that point gets made enough, Luke.
Yeah, And I mean they're like betting the draft, like there is it's like there's an answer to the test. It's not like you're betting on a like volatile performance or like someone can get hurt.
Like the answer to the test is out there, and if.
You figure that answer out, unless I guess things change, I guess trades, But there's an answer and that if you know that answer, it will be right and really good. I'll just have to take the card to the podium and you're good. Josh Allen can't get hurt on the
first play of the game, and your BET's done. Figuring out that answer, which is getting harder, but there is an outcome that is written in pen somewhere, and I think that is the biggest difference, Like minus infinity is a good bet in the draft compared to minus infinity isn't a good bet anywhere else Here.
Here Here the bets that I've made, in addition to the ones I already mentioned because I want to want to make fun of myself, because I have ones that I expect him to win. And then I have a couple that I took fires on. I mentioned Jade and Daniels second pick, minus one twenty five total quarterbacks under four and a half, Round one, I got a plus one sixty. Those came to me. I wasn't gonna involve myself, but the way that the money moved, I bet into those.
I also have a position of the Jaguars first selection as a cornerback. I got that an even money. Every mock had a corner. Obviously they have more needs than that too, but I went with corner at even money Dallas Turner, which looked to be like it was going to be a lock at under nine and a half. Now I'm not so sure about that. I got a plus money plus one fifteen when it looked like Atlanta might take Dallas Turner if they stayed to eight. Here are the ones where I really got nuts on. And
this comes from one is intel, one is not. The one that is not is Jim Harbaugh has repeatedly said he wants to start the foundation of his franchise in LA the Chargers with an offensive lineman. And Joe Alt was plus four fifty. You can get him in a better number like plus four seventy five to go number five. I took Harball at his word, and I know you. Alt is slated to be drafted seventh by most for the Titans at seven, if all remains where they are,
if every team remains where they are. But I took a flyer at plus four fifty on Alt at number five. I don't know if they stare him in the face and don't draft him, and then the other one is by Intel. Our buddy Chris Philika mentioned that he has heard that the Giants actually really like Roma Dunze more than they do Malik Neighbors. So I took a Dunze at plus three twenty five. At six, he's about plus two to fifty. So I'm kind of all over the place.
It gets back to, though I'm curious where we think, like, let me go with the scenario we brought up this morning. Mike Sanmichi brought it up this morning. So Caleb goes first, Jade and Daniels go second, and then the New England Patriots decide, you know what, we don't really like Drake May. And here's Marvin Harrison, the best player of any position,
staring us in the face. CJ Strout, as old teammate, by the ways, on record, is saying, if Marvin Harrison Junior is staring you in the face, don't be dumb. Was the quote draft him. What if the Patriots did that? What kind of chaos does this set the draft into? Well?
I mean that number one, they would no longer have the thirty second best wide receiver room in football.
That's for sure, Yes, But I guess what I'm getting at is, would this then make everybody who wanted Drake May go crazy trying to trade up? Would it then actually mean that JJ McCarthy would go much much later? Like right, the repercussions. All it takes is for one of these things to happen, right, Yeah.
Yeah, j JJ bawing would be the biggest domino, because like I'm convinced that Drake May is the Vikings guy that they want the most. If Drake May all of a sudden falls to four, I think the Vikings are going to throw everything to get there, to get him, and then it's really difficult to and then you can basically just put it JJ McCarthy maybe twelve, twelve or thirteen, maybe eight. If either of those teams, I think would
probably trade with the Falcons. Falcons are going to get the same guy at eight that they'll probably they can get from ten to thirteen. But yeah, like I think the Vikings would throw everything to get Drake May, and then JJ would probably fall fall because yeah, there's no reason to trade into four or five anymore.
Yeah, it sounds to me it sounds like the Cardinals are they're no longer in the trade business. At four, they just take they just take neighbors. If Harrison goes through, for the Vikings trade up to five with the Chargers, because the.
Chargers seem the most inclined to trade down out of those guys.
And then yep, Drake mayoes five to the Vikings, and then six is roma Dunes of the Giants, presumably because I don't think the Giants really are in the quarterback market. I think they were very much in the wide receiver market, and so they take the third blue chip wide receiver, so that hurts the Bears. Bears are now no longer looking at wide receiver. They probably take an hedge, and
the Jets are no longer looking at wide receiver. They probably just take Bowers And yeah, then Chargers take the tackle, Titans take a tackle, or the Chargers will take a tackle down at eleven, Titans take a tackle at seven.
Yeah.
Yeah, But about that scenario is yeah, that scenario being so crazy, like the same ten guys are probably going to go in the top ten even if that wild scenel.
Just shuffles it show.
Which is the biggest difference this year compared to last is pretty much, which is why it's kind of like an NBA draft, Like assuming the same time.
Guys are going to go yeah, yeah, but then I think that drags a dunejay. Uh if like Neighbors goes or then Dunday's going away earlier.
Yeah, let me go to some of these notes that you said before the show, Luke, which I think is great because one of the things about this coming out the Monday before the draft is a lot of numbers are going to be gone, but there's a lot of things that are still very betable. You put this note in top three to three five exactas.
Yeah, so those are those are the fun bets, where like scenarios we just went over are going to be crazy and with such an uncertainty right now on two and three because like truly, like we don't know, some of these are still fun and really, like I if you ask me right now, it's probably I would say the chalk, the Kalo jayde and Drake Marvin JJ, but you still need a trade for that to happen.
And like relying on trades or that's is like my least favorite thing to do.
They too, which creates the opportunity of the exactness of like if that trade doesn't happen or like Marvin goes through or whatever, Like you're looking at some absolute bangers, I gotta I gotta pull them out.
Yeah here I'm looking at it right now, Williams. Like if if Harrison goes through, your top four, is Williams likely Daniels Harrison neighbors and that's.
One hundred to one exactly.
That's a big number.
It's like telling someone I'll never be against one hundred to one bat Like, you don't want to be that guy that says no, and then it hits And.
Where are you saying that? True? Where's that? Where's that exact available.
Draft kings under the top four exact order? You have to scroll well down?
Yes, but yeah, but you're right, Luke, like the flyers like that, Why not right at one hundred to one? My god?
And these are what saved me last year, like with everything of the chaos, like these, these, these long shots are what how I came out in the grain. And I have a lot less long shots this year right now than I do last year. And that's kind of just where we are with this draft right now. But I would never be opposed to the exacts. And I think FANDU has top all the way up to top five, And as you get closer, I bet we'll start getting even more. I see, I remember it was like top seven.
I would think it was the longest. Last year three years ago. You could bet every single pick in the first round, which was fantastic, Yeah.
Till Twitter, till Twitter gave the answer before it added Yeah. So wait, so just to clarify that, I'll fee was exact, is what is the chaos scenario long shot that you like, Williams going third? To pollute it in those long shot exactas, like what's the what's the thing where it changes? What makes it such a long shot? Isn't Williams going third? You mean Harrison, I mean harr Harrison saying Williams. Pardon me, Harris, Yeah, probably right.
I mean like that's because yeah, like I mean, if we're if we step outside of what's going to happen and talk to just about the Patriots right now, Like, do we think that if they draft Drake May that he's going to succeed, you know, in the first couple of years with.
The talent on this roster, probably not failed.
So the Patriots are probably going to have a high pick again next year. I don't know that there really ought to be a premium for them to take a quarterback. So if they you know, if they take a generational wide receiver, so be it. I don't think that's necessarily bad team building. And uh, you know, I think, yeah, if that happens to me, pretty pretty likely, Like it's a core it's a high heightened degree of correlation that if Harrison goes three, Neighbors goes.
For Yeah, I think I think top five is where I'm looking for the chaos top four, it's it's tough for like fandolished top five and like you spoke to earlier about Joe Walt going five right now, Caleb Jayde and Drake JJ joealt is forty to one.
Oh, I would think it would be longer than that. That's all it was. Wow, Caleb, Caleb Drake Wait, Caleb, say again, Caleb Jayden.
Caleb Jayden, Drake JJ. That's hopmore and then Joe all forty.
Okay, so not not as chaotic as I thought. Okay, wow, But that if you do think there's correlation between Harrison going three and Molik Neighbors going forward, that's probably the core of the bet you should make there.
Yeah.
Yeah, And I should kind of explain why I think that's so highly correlated. Is I think it's pretty clear that the Cardinals are you know, they're and they're they're they're they're flirting with trading down and then but you know, they don't want to go so far down that they miss out on neighbors. And I think the real the reason is from a fit and from a talent evaluation, it sounds like they don't have a huge separation between Neighbors and Harrison and I.
But if one of those guys is gone and the other guy they're taken.
Right, boy, when when Nevada gets legalized sports betting, guys and we can bet these things here? Man, is this going to be awesome?
It's gonna be great.
Oh wait, what we do we do? Oh? Where you say, Luke?
Because uh, what is it? Just these types of bets?
Because for what I thought you guys had over unders out there, we have over runners.
We have over unders on players.
Yes, circa yeah, good old fashion.
Yeah.
Discovery this year, which was cool they did.
They put it out a week earlier than they won than they did last year because they were only available. Circle only jumped in last two or three days last year, but they gave us a full week and two or three days this time. Stations deserves the shout. They were the first to do it here. They are every year always Stations. All right, there's a couple other things here that are that are pretty interesting to me. We already talked about the Jets and the falcons, You're a lot
to swap. How about this one peak group think consensus in top ten? What do you mean by that?
Yeah, so we've we've kind of been talking to it this time, but like this draft right now, it is I can't remember a time that there.
Has been such a consensus on the top ten right now.
But was that you who tweeted out tweeted out the percentages?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, where every single picks one through ten and out of like the forty mock drafts I track, each guy has like sixty five percent or higher, which is way.
Above anything I've ever seen.
Yeah, and at one Domino can just throw this entire thing off technically, like scenarios that Albert Breras brought up as like three offensive linemen and going in the first round that would be crazy, which to me, that would happen if Chargers stay at five and take alt maybe await them. But I don't know if it's more of a consensus compared to just to mock drafts or such a copycat thing where it's just everyone just copycatting every like ourselves. In Jeremiah Mayah I spoke to him about.
I mean, he is the best he's the closest thing we have to what teams are thinking. And he's been He's had Drake mayat two. It's entire process, and I'm very interested to see if he switches in his final knock draft because if he does, that is a huge signal to me that it is Jayden because he's been on Drake May the entire process. But you can start to see like Lats who you're seeing a lot of to the falcons at eight from guys that you trust,
a lot that are starting to switch. But it is the highest consensus I've ever seen in any draft in a top ten.
Yeah, it's pretty amazing.
You're right, particularly the top eight, right or eight or nine?
Yeah?
Yeah.
And the day when you were on a numbers game on Vson, you were talking about how Daniel Jeremiah had his presser last week, and I guess it's Daniel's way of not having to do all of these individual interviews, so now he holds court and people can jump on in and hear what he has to say. And you were saying one of the nuggets was again a prop that we don't you know, it's like science fiction us here in Nevada. Second tight end drafted. You might as
well have said, who's the seventh punter drafted? Right like it just you know, and you were saying it was McLaughlin at Arizona might go number two. That was a big nugget. It got bet down tremendously. That was just one of the nuggets from this thing. Do you still buy into that happening or I mean certainly not at the price now you wouldn't bet it, I would imagine.
Yeah.
I mean at the time it was one hundred to one and now it's down to ten to one, which was a great nugget. And like I said, he's the close thing that we have to teams and maybe one team has him too. And the tight end class is so weak that you could probably make an argument for any of them outside of burs who go second, which would be like the third or fourth round. But I would not bet MacLauchlan at ten to one at these odds. It's just a great example of fake odds. Yeah, it's a draft.
Do you think do you think Bowers goes ten to the Jets.
I'm of the opinion that he doesn't.
To me, like, I think it's either that I'm trading over the Bears to go to Dunsa or taking Fatano at ten, which is the offensive lineman out of Washington. But there's some guys one specific beat reporter with the Cardinals names like Mike Jarecki, who's probably he's extremely accurate on his tips.
He is Walter Football dot Com.
Keith's track of tips on a year to year basis like as a win loss record for every single guy. Wow, like Matt Miller's three and twenty one over the last three years.
That's that good. I'm told that's not.
It's not great.
But Jareki's fourteen and oh so he hasn't been wrong with any tips. And Wow, last night he tweeted out Bowers to the Jets. He had a picture of Bowers and Gronkowski together and is that guy in the left is a future Jet, which to me means a lot. But I'm still sticking to my guns. Every time I got the Bowers over eleven and a half, someone comes back back invest thee under love to know who that guy is.
He's hit me off withsite you, but it just doesn't make sense to me.
If you're going to get an offensive weapon, just trade up for the round pick to get a Z or take an offensive lineman.
But they are the Jets, and the Jets will jet, So.
The Jets will jet. Yeah, the Jets will jet, only only trumped by the Raiders. Will raider when it comes to draft. All right, let me. I don't usually do this. You take a guest notes and run through it, but yours were so great, Luke, that I wanted to actually get through all of them. Exact picks odds based on trade scenarios. What do you mean by that?
Yeah, so that this is really the lat to swap with the Jets.
So if like the Jets trade out, they could take a Dunes eight, which the dunesy to go eight is six to one, and then we're assuming Falcons take Latsu at ten, which is twenty to one. And then I think scenario is like the other hotspot is the Eagles
trading into sixteen break corner with the Seahawks. I think if the Eagles stay at twenty two, they take an offensive lineman, they trade up, which the reporters from the Eagles I trust Kapinski, who's out of the Philadelphia Inquire, is pretty strong on them taking a corner and them being the most likely team to trade up, which historically they have been, which would be Eagles to take Terry on Arnold, which we don't have an exact pick, but corner great odds for the Eagles, and then really like
the Falcons trading back. Is that hot spot whether in the lat two is like the guy I'm sold on and you're not going to get a lot better than twenty to one for him, which he's almost even on to go to the Falcons at eight right now.
And then this other one. DK dropped a bunch of matchups. I saw that and it wasn't like too many matchups, right, it was like one page worth.
Yeah, they're pretty I'll give him credit. They were pretty good matchups in terms of not any no brainers.
But I don't think Xavier Worthy should be plus one fifty to a d Mitchell. I'm on the Ady Mitchell over. I'm actually on the Xavier Worthy over as well, but Ady Mitchell's a guy I feel like is slipping and worthy of plus one fifty to him.
Were really there?
EDP, which is estimated draft position between the mocks, is so tight right now, and I think there's a lot more scenarios where Worthy can go a lot earlier than Mitchell than there are Mitchell for Worthy, where Mitchell's like, if he doesn't go twenty eight, he might go thirty two. But you can see Worthy going twenty one. I mean, he's one of those speed guys that has a lot more volatility that I think one fifty is a great bet I would like. I think Terry and Irold over
Verse is a good bet. Verse doesn't go nine, I can see Verse falling into the twenties. Tarrann'nold is like, his range of outcomes is from pretty much like twelve to seventeen, and if Verse doesn't go nine, he's in the twenties. I mean tarryn donald is. They're basically to pick them between those two. Lat two is even money over Murphy. Murphy's like that big name that we're hearing.
That.
I don't know if I want to go against Murphy, But I like Fatano as well for the same reasons I like Arnold, but Fatano basically pick them against Binion Mitchell. Fatina's range is basically ten to sixteen. Mitchell, if he doesn't go fifteen, he might get to the twenties. I guess the Broncos were a hot spot, but they really
aren't now. But I like Fatana the same reasons, So like Arnold, like the range of outcomes is so much tighter, and I have a lot more confidence that you're really betting on like one or two spots to go ahead of these guys are the versus Mitchell, all right.
So what I'm hearing is the ones that the ones that you guys like the most under six and a half wide receivers under On Murphy's draft position, Byron Murphy's draft position.
Barton Barton, pardon me.
On barn Ram Barton's draft position? What else did you what else did you have strong conviction on it?
I could just read off the over unders I have, please right now? Yeah, I have Quinnion Mitchell over thirteen and a half, Jared Verus over fourteen and a half. All these numbers are going to be there, but this
is what I have. So Quintin and Mitchell over thirteen and a half, Jared Versus over fourteen and a half, J C. Latham under fourteen and a half, Byron Murphy under eighteen and a half, Graham Barton over twenty three and a half, Chop Robinson under twenty six and a half, eighty Mitchell over twenty seven and a half, Dave You're Worthy over twenty nine and a half, Tyler Geiden under twenty nine and a half, and Lad McConkie under thirty five and a half, which I definitely will have more.
That's four overs and six unders. They usually try to keep the overs and unders even it's a little bit more difficult this year. But the first thing I learned when betting the drops of years ago is I had too many unders, and a lot of them were in the top ten and one domino goes off.
Oh yeah.
It basically comes down to you, like you need to predict the top ten or top fifteen perfect in order to get all those bets right, which is impossible. So you only have equal overs two unders, where I guess they can kind of be correlated where an over hits the under is coming back because I means if this guy's not going, the guy you, but the under should be going. But true, some of those numbers are still out there.
So no thank you for those, drew. What did that leave out in terms of what you like best?
Well, the British jumper, which is under six and a half wide receivers that is minus two fifty. I mean realistically, like I'm trying. I'm not trying to be glib. I think fair should be like minus twenty five hundred.
Business. I really am struggling.
I'm really struggling to see how said, because like you know, certain guys are sliding Brian Thomas junior, Ady Mitchell, Like these guys are this is your fourth and fifth wide receiver. Like if those guys fall down into the end of the first round where number one, they weren't expected to be there, so teams aren't even necessarily evaluating them. They're
looking at offensive linemen, they're looking at cornerbacks. Yeah, I mean yeah, you only have one clear obvious team with the Bills, as likely to take a wide receiver down there.
Yeah.
I just I'm not seeing anyway that the math works out that we're going to get to seven.
So if there are seven wide receivers drafted, well, number one that'll be part of the court. So far from me in twenty twenty four, it's been a it's it's been a rough couple of months here. But that said, I'm not I'm not seeing this as fair and the minus two fifty range at all?
What is the sense By the way, Drew is very very honest about tough stretch that he's been in. And that's what we love. That's what we love about you that you transparent about this stuff. What is the what is the scenario that happens or what's the first thing that would would happen in this draft that would indicate to you. Oh, dear god, I'm fucked. Like, what's what's the first thing that happens? Okay, what what was that?
Like twelve and thirteen or Bonis and Michael Panics?
Oh yeah, I'm done. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's like, okay, if.
In the first half of the draft, I'm in deep, deep trouble.
Yeah, and then I think, yeah, quarterback, go twelve and thirteen.
But that's but that's you know, the quarterback thing is so fascinating. It gets all the headlines and I know we get we're deeper into it, but like, you know, I get it. On the one hand, Right, you know, NFL team is anything unless you have a quarterback. Right, I'm a Washington fan. I can tell you that for years, you're you're nothing ultimately without a quarterback. So I get why teams go quarterback crazy come first round of an NFL draft, you want to believe, right, you desperately want
to believe that this guy. There's Bo Nicks, there's Michael Pennix, there's JJ McCarthy. I me, mister quarterback, you know molder can make this guy into a franchise quarterback. On the other hand, just to get a brief history of quarterback drafts in the NFL, twenty twenty was the was the draft that I think everybody is chasing that high burrow to a Herbert Love and hurts my god, right like
they're all impact quarterbacks in this league today. But then after that, twenty twenty one, Trevor Lawrence was the number one pick in the draft. Okay, Jerry's still out. Some people think he's going to be great, some people think not so much. Since then, here are your quarterbacks twenty twenty one, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones. Twenty twenty two, Remember was the year there was only the one guy in the first round, Canny Pickett went
to Pittsburgh. The other name of quarterbacks drafted in that draft Ritter Willis, corral, Zappi Howell, A lot of con Skyler, Thompson, Purty, Purty saves the draft with the last pick twenty twenty three. I mean, guys, this is just last year, right, last year Young Bryce Young goes first. We did get Stroud
and then we got Richardson. Jerry's going to be decided on Richardson still then since then after that, Levis Hooker, Hayner, Bennett, O'Connell, Tune dtr Clifford, Hall, Tanner, McKee, Duggan and actually two guys who were undrafted, right, Bajen and Devido got more run than any of those names I just mentioned. So I guess, on the one hand, like I get why these teams go crazy because you're nothing without a quarterback.
On the other hand, you look at the batting average right, and you're just like, God, is it bad?
I mean, yeah, next year, the next year, next year's quarterbacks is like all time dad boy.
Uh yeah.
And I mean I'm not thinking like I think shouldhar Sanders is right now like probably the top guy, but I'm of the belief in Mac Jones's kind of like the poster for me on this. But this is your franchise quarterback.
You're either to have a top four or five pick, we trade up and get him.
You don't hope he falls to like the Patriots did with mac Jones, because you truly believe he's the guy. If you're just hoping he falls to you when you get past the tenth pick.
And if the Vikings don't trade up two four and.
Five, that is also another chaos scenario that could create some o gods because everything, every mark that you see right now, everything you're reading, is based off of four or five being in the Vikings, And if it's not them, we could have all been around the entire time.
On everything, which wouldn't like shock you right, Like you wouldn't be that shocked if we were all wrong about everything, which is a scary part of this.
Obviously this year, this year, I would be shocked.
Right.
Last year, we shouldn't move. We kind there was so much smoke and noise and everything was nothing was connected. It was all kind of contradictory, so you were it was a very uncomfortable feeling heading to the draft. This year feels pretty different. But now the quarter the quarterback draft, I haven't have a working theory. I haven't completely flushed this out. So I'll get you guys take on this.
But like I get it from a team building standpoint, right, you have enough evidence now that you need a quarterback on a rookie deal to you know, and you need to be competitive in that player if that, if you hit on your pick, you need to be competitive in that player's windows years three, four, and five. And I think that's what a lot of franchises are trying, you know,
trying to accomplish. And I think you know, as with like you know, with the Texans this year, once you hit that, you know, once you hit your on your guy, then yeah, chips on the table, like, go get stuff on dicks, go go get I forget who they traded, who they got in free agency? Who is the pass rusher from the Vikings, but Daniel Hunter. Yeah, so you know, pushing chips on the table, like here we go, this
is our shot. And because realistically, you either you want to be chasing a championship or you want to be at the top of the draft. Taking your next shot out of quarterback purgatory is like the ultimate you know, least desirable place to be, which is why it's weird seeing teams like the Falcons just capitulate and pay you know, a guy like Kirk Cousins to just put them squarely
in purgatory, but so be it. And you know, I think as far as like the batting average for quarterbacks, I think that there is a little bit of a signal in terms of who ultimately succeeds at the NFL level and who doesn't. And I think it's more looking at the who doesn't, right, and what happened to those
guys in their development arc? Right, and if they have a year of arrested development, where either their final year and I'm kind of looking at Caleb Williams when I'm saying this, right, if their final year in college was like a little bit of either a plateau or some regression, Like, I think that's a it's a red flag. Like, I think that that kind of tells tells you that, you know, the development arc stopped at some point, and that's potentially
a problem. And if you come into the NFL and you take over a team like the Bears that have no wide receivers and the worst offensive line rostered in the NFL, like Justin Fields took over, your arrested development year is your rookie year as a quarterback?
Right?
And so the kind of the success stories to me, all have continuity where you were playing your best football as you were leaving college and you went to an organization that had you carried your development, you know, to where you could ultimately hit your ceiling right. And you know, everyone who has failed of the first round picks that you just rattled off either had an arrested development.
Here in college or they had one in their first couple of years in the NFL.
And so I think, you know, if we just look at it, you know, if we if we do a post draft kind of autopsy and you're like, okay, well, what do you think Caleb Williams to the Bears, I would say, I have reservations, Like his five year at college was not as good as his junior year, and now he's coming into a situation where, yes, things do look pretty good in terms of there is kind of talent and the cupboard is well stocked, but it's not clear and obvious to me that he's going to just
jump right back on to the path he was in terms of development and progression. And then the same thing would go with somebody like Drake May. Okay, you're putting him on the Patriots, Like, I'm willing to kind of kind of strongly consider that's probably a wasted pick because that talent on that team right now is so poor that him having arrested development year and as his rookie year seems pretty likely. And then you know, let's assume
that JJ McCarthy goes to the Vikings. If you're like, you know, hey, of these four, you know Jaden Dalen goes to the Commanders. Okay, of these four guys, you know,
who's who's likely to have the best career. I would probably take the long shot price on JJ McCarthy because he's he kind of did start to hit his ceiling late in his college career, winning you know, the particularly in high leverage games at the end, and then carry that right onto a team and the Vikings that have a really good developer and O'Connell and exceptionally talented roster for you pass catchers, outstanding pass protection like whoever ultimately
the Vikings get would be my bet, too, will be the success story of this draft class.
Yeah.
I don't know what the theory is in there, other than I agree with everything you said, because this isn't basketball, right where talent wins no matter where you are, right, Michael Jordan on the Wizards. That's about example, because he end up playing with Wizards. Michael Jackson on it, Mike, Michael Jordan on any team is going to be great, right. Baseball is a individual sport disguised as a team sport. So if you're a great hitter, you're gonna be a
great hitter everywhere. Same with a great pitcher football. As you just displayed, right, there's so many moving parts to the system you end up in and how you fit into that system. There's no way to prove this, but I always use it as saying, if Peyton Manning were drafted by Washington, he would not have become the Peyton Manning. We know he's got some pedigree because he's got family. He wasn't he wouldn't have sucked, but he would never have become the paid minute because we had a different
coordinator every year and a different coach every year. So I kind of I'm with you on all of that, And that's why that's where the cruelty is of the economic system, right, Because then you can only win a Super Bowl if you're a Hall of Famer, if you're a rookie quarterback over performing on a rookie contractor or guy overperforming on a rookie contract where you pay everybody else and then you win and that's your window. And then if you don't get it on that window, you're
forced to commit nine figures to that player. And that player is often it's never clear, right, It's never clear that they're going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. It's more like they're going to be Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins or that kind of player where you're like, oh, well, I guess we got to give him nine figures because what's the alternative. So it's just so cruel, right. The whole thing is just a what an inexact science when you put it all in the mix.
Yeah, especially if you do hit on a guy like a Josh Allen and you have some very close calls while he's on his contract, and then that's right. Ultimately you are doing what the Bills are doing this year, where you know, maybe they get the fifth best wide receiver in this draft as their wide receiver one next year, and that's a disaster.
Yeah, so true. All right, So I just want to wrap this up by saying this, So if people are people right now, they stop listening to this podcast and they're going out and they're making a bet. Sounds like if they're fine with the minus two fifty on the under six and a half wide receivers, that's the play the under on Barton, we feel you guys feel really strongly about I feel super strong about Jade and Daniels going number two. It's creeping back up by the way.
It's about minus one fifty five right now. But I everything I my intuition and what I think I know about that franchise is they're going to go Jade and Daniels. Did we leave out any other thing that is a must bet right now?
Trades under six and a half?
Trades that was the one I've forgotten, Luke, thank you. Trades under six and a half. That's the one me personally, when I leave this that's the one I'm looking for to see if we have that anywhere in town. Trades under six and a half, because that is a lot of trades, right like, that's not gonna happen, okay, and then everything else we we hope for the best.
On but yeah, yeah, I picked something I find some find some absurd lung shots too.
I mean there's there's you want to be a fun experience, and I don't know, there's like the Bridge Jumpers is a rough sweat, I'll be honest, like sitting there and wait, waiting and watching and counting as you're going through the late thirties where you're like, wait, did I really have any idea what these teams were looking for looking at?
Not really? Uh, and yeah, all of the all of the yeah. So yeah, sweating out the super uh, the super juicy stuff is a little rough, so just be OneD.
Yeah. But I think Luke made a little point of there that I don't want to gloss over, which is with those exacts. Those exactas which you said saved you last year, I think are like one, there's that scenario, right, you can sort of bet against what your other conviction is.
But that is a whenever you have a correlation in there, and Drew you pointed out that one between Harrison and Neighbors back to back, I almost think that that's like, if you have that available to you, you almost have to include one or two of those because.
That's yeah, yeah, yeah, And a lot of the books to offer parlays where you're parlaying round ones, or like on fandle, you can do cross, you can do first defensive player, first wide receiver parlays where the parlays are as well, just as good bets where parlaying five or six round winners that are minus three hundred are greater are great.
Bets as well. But yeah, definitely diversify yourself in scenarios or you could have a really bad night.
Drew, would you like to talk about the parlays that were available off of distant offshore location that they didn't they didn't turn off the button for well, yeah, I.
Mean off the top of you said, would you take a small profit? Would you guarantee a small profit? And I said no, Well, I know, I already know that I'm there as of this moment, because correlated parlays were available for a hot minute and you could play. A good example was over over ten and a half defensive players, under twenty one and a half offensive players. And if you do the math right, unless there is.
A special teams player who gets after.
In the first round, or unless somebody, you know, unless the you know somebody gets a last second penalty from the NFL and they lose their first round pick, and there's only thirty one for round one picks. Those are perfectly correlated and so something that you should be betting at minus one thirty, you're betting at a plus one ninety and that's obviously a nice way to start the draft. So appreciate, you know, have tip to those folks for
given us a chance. And I don't know other than that, it's been it's been very lean pickings in the offshore space as far as draft liquidity.
And I get it, like you know, you don't.
They don't want to loan, likes to kind of just give it all back for fun. And you're you're putting your resources as far as uh running a high you know, high limit book. You're putting your resources into the NBA playoffs right now, And I get that.
So yeah, it is what it is. But yeah, it's been it's been a lean it's been a lean draft year ultimately for me.
By the way, before we go n b A draft this year, like the will there even be any draft props out there for the NBA draft this year? It is considered to be the worst, the worst NBA draft in history. They say this year I.
Mean they have an over for Lebron's what it's worth.
Yeah, let's also remember we went, we went. I'm old enough to remember. You're Anthony Bennett went first overall.
So let's let's let's uh, let's let's it's cool out jets until you see these guys play. But you know, I think the where what is true surely is this is the worst crop of college players. Like if if you hung a college players to be drafted in the top five prop right this minute, it's probably over half, and it's probably juiced to the under because I think it is the only guy, maybe the Kentucky shooter who goes in the top five, and even that feels like
a reach. So it could be all G leaguers and international folks who fill up your top five or your board. And I think there's a couple of difference makers in there, but ultimately, yeah, probably no franchise changers.
That'll make for a fun night when we don't know any of the players. That's awesome, sounds great, all right, guys, I really appreciate it. I think we touched on a lot here. May it all go well for us, may not be last year draft is on Thursday Night. Got a few days to listen to this, Luke swaying that Vegas refund. Luke, besides drafts, do you bet the rest of the year or you just a draft guy?
Oh yeah, NFL college football at all?
Okay, not at all, just making sure that people know at Vegas Refund and then Drew Dinsick of course at Whale Underscore Capper, Deep Dove podcast again with Andy Moltor and NBC Sports Bet the Edge with j Croucher. Love listening to both. Drew, you do a great job with both of them. Man, Drew gets a little frisk ear on the Deep Dive I noticed at times. So there's that.
Yeah, we have a Yeah, it's a it's a it's a it's the Take Your Tie Off podcast.
Yeah, it's uh.
I like that kind of like this one.
Pour Yourself, Pour Yourself, an adult pepperage type of podcast.
All right, guys, I really appreciate it. Good luck, good luck to everybody with your picks in the twenty twenty four NFL Draft.