Take it down, Man, Now Down Man.
Monday morning, April twenty fourth, twenty twenty three is Beating the Book podcast NFL Draft Special Skill Alexander and then what has become a tradition around here from the Deep Dive at NBC Sports bet the Edge podcast, Drew Dinsick joins us, how you doing, Drew's kay.
I'm well, great to talk to you, Great to see you again. I haven't seen talked to Matt in a while, So fired up for today's pod. NFL Draft betting maybe kind of the closest niche betting market to my heart.
So this is a great, great opportunity.
Yeah, man, and Matt Brown, who you just referred to from the handle at Vson, former host of Primetime Action and a man who loves himself some NFL drafts as well.
Yes, you in Primetime, the greatest show to ever get canceled on the greatest show ever get canceled on Vison to.
Ever get canceled. I'm just on Vson. I think anywhere else?
Ye?
Maybe? Anywhere?
Okay, pretty I did the analysis, Drew. Anywhere on Earth I think is what I can Anywhere on Earth? Yeah, sure, okay, So here we are a little more than seventy two hours. This is when we're recording it Monday morning, little more than seventy two hours before the twenty twenty three NFL Draft.
There's so many ways to go here.
You.
By the way, Drew with Luke swayin Vegas Refund did a great job on the latest Deep Dive podcast. You had a great rumor that's out there that I actually bet because you were so convincing about it. We'll get into that as well, just how these things are being allowed at sports books, Who's who's booking them, who's not. But I just want to start with the macro statement of it, whether you guys agree with this or not,
modern history. Three days before the NFL Draft, are you as uncertain about how this is going to go as any draft you can remember?
Yeah? I mean for me for sure. I mean the last three drafts. I was really confident heading into the last three drafts, you know, I mean it was everything seemed to kind of have at least some different ways
you could draw. Straight line to this happened, and straight line to this happened, and straight line this happening, And then as long as the odds matched up right, I mean, is this gonna happen one x amount of times, then it was a good bet for me, and less of those this year up in that way, less of those yes this year for me. For sure.
You'd go with that too.
Drue, Yeah, one hundred percent. You know, the uncertainty at two is enormous still. You know, usually you wake up the Monday morning before the draft and you kind of go through the NFL insiders, pods, articles, whatever, and there's like lots of confirmatory stuff in there, and today this morning was the oppo. It was like all it was everybody sort of has the same sentiment, which is, we don't really know what's going to happen, and I think at all because you know then this is cliches can be.
But the draft starts at two with the Texans, and whether they ultimately decide to take a quarterback, trade the pick for presumably someone taking a quarterback or draft a defender really sends the draft in two different directions, because you know, we know that at three the Ardinals would
most like to trade down. But if you know, if there's not demand for the quarterback market because Houston takes the defender, then all of a sudden, they're not going to get an offer that's worthy, you know, and you know, so you can definitely see a situation kind of a where quarterbacks go early, early, early, and then b where you know, they slide because it's just defense at the top. And you know, right now, I would put it something like seventy ish percent that the two second overall pick
is a quarterback. But even that is still not anywhere close to as likely as what we would know in years past.
Okay, so let's let's repeat that because you said it up beautifully. So the one thing we think we do know, and for the purpose of this discussion, I guess we have to go with this, is that the Panthers are taking Bryce Young at one. We'll put that at ninety one percent. Ninety nine point five percent. Yes, yeah, that
sounds good. Okay, so it does start it too, And you laid out the three snario So Texans keep choose quarterback, which, again, by their franchise, you would think logically they should Texans keep and they pick defense if in fact, Bryce Young is so highly tiered by them and everybody else is so far below that that they're just not interested in anybody else and they're unwilling to trade to one, because that would be double the mistake after the old Davis
Mills fourth and twelve, fourth and twenty lovey going for two game to end less seas in which, by the way, Matt Matt said it best just now in a numbers game could go down.
How did you say it as the most egregious winn.
I agreegious win, at least in recent memory. Because if if the whole thing was we're not actually we're not going to take a quarterback now because we we had a heart set on Bryce Young And if that, if that's the case, you win this meaningless game. You go for two with a minute thirty seven, All these different all these different things to point to just an egregious win for sure.
And then the third option is Houston trades, right, and a team that would trade in would obviously be trading in for a quarterback. So all right, let's go with each one of those scenarios. So, because you were just alluding to it, which which I find interesting, as you said, if they decided to go defense, this is sort of the counterintuitive thing. You said, if they decide to go defense, it doesn't make the run on quarterbacks more hairy. It does the opposite in your.
Opinion, Yeah, I mean, I really think so.
The idea because is, you know, this is all about the AFC South, right, there are three there are three teams in the a FC South that don't have a quarterback of the future, and they all have draft assets at the top eleven picks of this year's draft, and those three teams kind of jockeying for position in terms of who's taking who, when you know it's the Titans really only have to give up the future to move up to three in order to keep the you know,
the Colts from getting their guy. If you know, the Texans take a quarterback or a quarterback goes to I should say so it's you know, to me, at least Titans and anyone else kind of in the mix for a quarterback in the top eleven picks of the draft can stand pat and see who falls to them if quarterback do not go two and three.
So if a defensive player goes two and by the way, on your podcast, you were saying you and Luke were saying Vegas refund that it appears that if the Texans went defense, they prefer they prefer Tyree Wilson now over will Anderson. That seems to be the thing, and that if they went defense, the Cardinals would be more likely to go Stan Patten go defense because the trade offers wouldn't come pouring in, and then the Colts would have Levis fall into their laps at four. That would be
that scenario Stroud Anderson fall. The scenario where the scenario and this is what Matt was saying, Now I turn a mat you have a scenario where you believe that you have not eliminated the possibility of this going quarterback quarterback quarterback quarterback.
Just I've not removed that from a possibility here, because, like you know, we all do this. I'm sure whenever we're trying to we're trying to go through like three or four likely scenarios and then we can at least try and figure out, Okay, is there a bet to be made if this scenario plays out? If this scenario plays I have this scenario plays out. I mean again, I said this on your show just just a little bit earlier. It is very hard to tank in the NFL. I thought Seattle was going to be one of the
worst teams in the NFL. Last year a better an all under on that team, and then you stumble into wins and teams underperform and things happen. So, if you're the Texans as a franchise, just to assume that you're going to have one of the top two picks next year to get one of these guys that, by the way, we've all heard this can't miss prospect and all the greatest guys.
They said this about this group last.
Year, right right, It's like, yeah, don't draft a quarterback last year because this year and then we get to this year, it's kind of like, all of these guys aren't that good. It'll be the same thing next year,
you know. And so to think that you're going to be in the scenario to get may or to get Williams next year, you have to have one of the top two picks, and if not, you're going to trade in to one of those top two picks, and they might not whoever has those picks might not want to trade with you, and they might one of those two guys. And so I don't know, you find yourself in a pretty nique scenario right here, in which I don't know
if you pass on a quarterback. And if that's the case, then I think there is a Then it starts to get the other teams out there that are quarterback needed to start calling that Cardinal squad and say, hey man, look, you need a bunch of players. And even if we give you an extra couple of mid round picks or something like that, for us to do a little swapperoo right here, it makes a lot of sense for you
because you are dead in the water. You're not gonna win any games in twenty twenty four, twenty twenty three, so let's go ahead and start building that roster up.
All right, Drew, So, but I asked you to put a percentage chance. I think you started to do this on which of these scenarios happens at two. Who's the favorite right now, three days before the draft?
What's the favorite?
Yes, a quarterback going second has to be the favorite for me for a lot of reasons. And I think that kind of spelled it out.
But quarterback either.
Way, quarterback either way? Right, I'll give you sixty. Okay, So again, you're kind of reading all the tea leaves and getting all the info from the insiders across the NFL today, being like we don't know what's happening at two. Like that to me may mean that the Texans have a deal in principle, assuming that Bryce Young actually goes on, they may have a deal in principle. That's entirely possible.
But I would put that at maybe ten percent. I would put sixty percent that the type the Texans kind of just get over there, you know, the feeling of disappointment of losing out on Bryce Young and take the top quarterback on their board, who I think is love us.
I think that's probably like sixty percent chance. And then I would have about a thirty percent chance that they actually do punt on quarterback entirely and take a defender there because you know, to Matt's point, like the idea of walking, you know, you're going to sell tickets to your fanbase. So we're running it back with Davis Mills in case keenum like what, I don't realize. I don't really know how you can, you know, make that play
out eventually. And you know, there's been a lot of speculation that they've done a ton of due diligence on Hended Hooker. But if you're taking him at like twelve or even trading back in or taking him at the top of the second round, that's a tough sell. So you know, I think ultimately I think they kind of cooler heads prevail and they come around and they just take their top QB available, who I think is love Us.
And you know, the ten percent chance that they have a deal in principle with some other team coming up, I'm assuming it is for leve Us because you know, the only thing that you can say with the kind of you know, not cloak and dagger speculatory stuff, but you know pretty clearly the Cults are in a situation where they need a quarterback who can start relatively soon. They've been very candid and they always are about who
they like, and it's love Us. And you know, I think the idea of any team trading into the top two or three is to jump the Colts for that player. So you know, I would guess that there is a realistic chance that somebody trades into the two to take love Us, And then I would say that there's probably the most likely I'll come as the Texans.
Just chill out and do the right thing.
This has nothing to do with anything in terms of a bet, but it does deserve repeating here where it's like, and it seems like whatever happened in the college football season matters not at all. So like every time Will Levis had a big moment, he came up small this last year in college football and CJ Stroud last night looked was crushing George's defense at Ohio State. So like, and none of that seems to matter, right, like we
just forget. It's like, whatever happened, it doesn't matter. But by the way, the random story also, I happened to live in a building. It's a pair of buildings in the middle of the strip here. Antonio Pierce, the Raiders linebacker coach, lives in the other building, but we share a parking area, and so the Valets are always talking to him. I happen to be there. We leave at the same time in the morning. Antonio Pierce is just
gushing about Will Levis. He's like, oh yeah, he's like he's like, he's like, he's a linebacker rose at seventy yards downfield. So all of these teams become so fixated on this pro type, right, it's amazing.
I think you know what's kind of funny. Last time, I mean, you and Matt did a draft pod. I think your colleague Lombardi was part of the picture as well, and he was just steadfastly anti Justin Fields in that podcast, to the point where going back and listening to it would probably be funny, fun and funny, right. And this cycles as little as Lombardi saw I saw eye with
him in that moment, this cycle. Almost everything he said as lined up exactly with what I'm hearing from NFL insiders, and the Levis stuff is, you know, like the linebacker coaches might like the Levis from the physical side of things, but it's almost all the mental that's kind of given him the leg up on a lot of draft boards, like teams that are not even at all really seriously considering quarterbacks in the draft. I've seen and heard what
they're you know, how they rate ranked quarterbacks. And Levis's QB two almost unanimously after Bryce Young. And it comes down to the way he scored on the cognition test. It comes down to the fact that he was running a more pro style system.
Uh.
And the idea that Ohio State you know has, you know, just is putting quarterbacks into into the NFL without as much preparation as they would need to be able to, you know, to to to play the position well on day one. I think is sort of the kind of common mindset among the NFL, you know, front offices right now, but.
We don't say we don't say that about Alabama quarterbacks though.
I always think it's funny with because we have the same talking point with the two quarterbacks, but it just goes in the opposite directions, which is so CJ. Stroud they're like, yeah, but look at all the guys around him, I mean, like that's why I say. And then with Will Levis, they're like, yeah, but look at all the
guys around him. They were terrible. So it's like we're just assuming he's going to be better because he had no talent around him, and with c J. Stroud, we're assuming he's going to be worse because he had all this talent around him. So it's like the same talking point just goes in opposite directions with the two guys.
So so you and you and and you and Luke alluded to this, redid more than allude to it. You think there's a scenario where like CJ. Stroud could fall into Aaron Rodgers draft mode, which is that this guy who at one point was a four dollars favorite to be the number one pick. Yeah, if he gets past Tennessee, Let's say Tennessee holds their pick at eleven, he could be in free fall at that point. Like that scenario is possible.
You always always always run into this where a player who is available when he was not expected to be available, teams will by default already you know, they've they've already kind of they've already kind of drawn a red line through that player when they go through their preparation.
We're not even going to vet him. We're not going to do our due.
Diligence, and so you know, they may just pass out of like, well, we didn't really think that he was going to be here, so we didn't even really consider it. And that's definitely what happened with Aaron Rodgers and a handful of teams that otherwise you know, were in the market to improve their quarterback situation. They just they didn't think he was going to be there because people thought he was going to go one. And so yeah, Stroud could very well find himself there. You know, I've heard
this is a little cloak and dagger. But you know, it seems pretty clear that Stroud's visit with the Colts went poorly, and you know, I think.
How did not do a run up to the draft?
And Yeah, and honestly, like the outcome that I'm most excited to see how it plays out by far is if it goes too you know, Bryce young one Levis goes to to the Texans, and then Tennessee trades into the three to take Richardson, and then the Colts are now on the decision point of we need a quarterback?
What is our plan be here?
Because I would, honestly, at least from what I've heard, the likelihood of being Stroud or being you know, just kind of them just capitulating and taking a guy that they didn't have a great, great on is going to be fascinating to see. Ball is kind of steadfastly. You know, he's not a guy that's going to trade up draft equity, like he's not. He's not trading up even if you know,
the worst case scenario plays out. And so I'd be fascinated to see if Plan B for them is do they make another run at Lamar Jackson, do they make a take, do they take a swing on Trey Lance, Like, there's definitely sort of a lot of other plan b's there that may kind of create true unknown with that fourth pick as opposed to just automatically taken Stroud.
But with with the four quarterbacks, would we do are we all in agreement here that like the dead floor for the four that we assume are going to the first round, they're all gone by twenty right? Like that that's like the dead floor because then at that point you would have to make it through Tennessee, you'd have to make it through New England, you have to make it through washingtonsh So they say that's given. They say, Sam,
how if someone's there? And then and then you get through Tampa who can't be loving their their situation either, And then and then you have that luxury pick for Seattle, which is their second pick in the first round.
Well, what you're both alluding to is in that free fall, if the free fall of Stroud happened, it would be it would be multiple teams right that would be shocked that he was there and would have to all of a sudden throw out everything they've talked about, be like are we taking this guy? Yeah, Like we have to we kind of have to take him, right. We can't not take him until the fans were going with Sam Howel.
Right, That's why I have put like, even if even if the craziest scenario quarterback plays out, I still think twenty is the like dead floor for the four to go because it would be several several teams that need quarterbacks who then would have to just pass on these guys like in just over and over and over again.
Okay, I Drew is not liking that.
You don't like that, Drew, Well, no, I just mean the command the commanders have already, they already have to kind of explain why Sam Howel's the choice over Lamar Jackson's.
You don't know, he threw eleven completed forward passes. What are you talking about?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I like, like, uh uh yeah, I yeah. I really am excited to see how it plays out. Surely, like this could all be, you know, kind of hollow speculation because we know, you know, the likes of the Seahawks and the Lions, who were always dark horses to take quarterbacks. They could have a higher grade on Stroud than any of us realized. I definitely don't know that for sure, that's true.
Again, I didn't even mention tit at eighteen, like that's a that's a luxury. Again, that's the second first round pick, right.
Yeah, oh yeah yeah, so yeah, to that point, the idea of Detroit passing on him, Seattle passing on him twice is really, really, really really a stretch.
So I agree, I think.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I think realistically him making it past the Seahawks a second time is a is a stretch. They're kind of in that mix too, so yeah, yeah, So I think C. J. Strouds floor is probably eighteen nineteen twenty.
Anthony Richardson, as you guys pointed out, has to has to be drafted by a team with a quote unquote bridge quarterback, right, so Seattle that five could maybe, right, sure, I don't know, there's so many scenarios here, but it can't be.
But the Colts wouldn't because they don't have him, right, So the Colts would not be.
It, right, Yeah, Yeah, I think I think Seattle at five is probably Richardson's floor. That's my that's my gut. And part of the reason is because they were so enamored with Josh Allen and like like that's a real story, Like that's not made up. They were so enamored with Josh Allen they were considering him moving on from prime Russell Wilson to take a swing on Josh Allen as a developmental piece. And the similarities between Alan and Richardson
are pretty unmistakable, like you can't miss it. And so Seattle having a higher grade than I think a lot of people realize. On Richardson, I think is pretty likely. And if he's available at five, I would expect that's his floor. But he may not be available at five because again, if you had to say, like hold my feet to the fire, what's the most likely thing that's going to happen on Thursday right now? I think it's young Levis Wilson, Richardson, Anderson.
Young Levis Wilson, Richardson four.
Yeah to the Colts.
Richardson, Yeah, Richardson to the Colts.
Yeah. I think they take Richardson Overstroud. Certainly. If there's those those.
Guys are done, you still think they would go rid Wow, and then who goes five? Anderson Anderson because they don't want Carter at all. They don't do the Seahawks do not want Jalen.
Carter, that's my gut.
Yeah.
Yeah, Well Will Anderson, who's been available in the NFL draft I think for three straight seasons now just cannot buy a break and now he's falling. Okay, I want I want to get to all of like, sure, what bets you think are available now that people can bet? And I want to get to what bets you have in pocket that you like the most, that you like the least. I have tons that I don't like it
all anymore. But can you just tell that because you you alluded to it here before before we get into all that, sure you said that there might be ten percent chance that there's a trade in pocket.
Could you give that ruler?
Because I think it's of all the things, this might be the most fascinating scenario.
Yeah, because you know, you think basically where and again we're speculating on sort of the plan that Texans have for what they're going to sell their fans as far as quarterback for this season, and if they pass on a quarterback of two, if they take a d you know, if they're even considering it, then they have to have a plan B in place, Like what's our plan B here?
And I would say plan B. You know, it could include you know, taking a quarterback later in the draft, which isn't as sexy, or it could be as you know, it could be trading for another player who's in a disgruntled situation. And Trey Lance is obviously the one that was floated, presumably by San Francisco, by the way, who is like desperate for an offer rock Yeah, and I'm excited to see your San Francisco forty nine ers and brock Purty week one with his uh uh, you know,
his rook is Tommy John elbow. Maybe the noodle arm isn't an issue anymore. Maybe now he's thrown at one hundred yards over the mountains. But you know, but you know, brock perty is the future in San Francisco. Trey Lance is on the ounce. There was a lot of buzz that, you know, that's that the teams are going to get small for Trey Lance, and that could be the Texans plan.
But I like I circle Mac Jones as kind of a more likely guy to be moved on draft day because I just I don't see that being a long term, you know, viable relationship with everything that's happened in the last year now between Belichick and mac Jones, and I know certainly the Patriots are kicking the tires on some of these quarterbacks in this draft class, which to me means that mac Jones may be on the move.
Will Levis did come in for an interview or a day there on Wednesday, the last day that you could sneak somebody into your camp. So one of the things behind that Mac Jones rumor. And I heard this too before I heard you and Luke talking about it. I can't tell you where I heard it because I don't
remember anymore. What was this whole thing about when Matt Patricia became the offensive guy at New England One of the weirdest decisions ever by Belichick that mac Jones is realizing, oh, this is gonna be a shit show, goes to his alma mater, Alabama, and ask for help, And that gets back to Belichick. Now, I don't know, Drew where I heard that, but I heard that in the last few weeks also, and so that's where the beginning of their
sort of bad relationship begins. Do you believe that Do you believe that a trade could happen like that at all?
Yeah? I mean, I certainly believe that Belichick would take offense to that. He seems like the type of guy that would. Yes, that is that I buy a hundred percent where it's kind of like whoa, whoa, whoa. Do you know who I am? Yes? I am God? So yes, you don't go ask God. You already have God. You don't go ask Buddha, right, I mean like you got God right here.
I told everybody on a numbers game this morning. I told the Drew's mac Jones scenario, and the couple people the feedback was, oh, Belichick, he never trades up, he never does it. Do we really know what Belichick post Tom Brady would do on any.
Of this stuff?
If really, By the way, so just to let you know, Drew, based on that story, that was enough for me to take the Patriots first election as a quarterback at eight to one.
Thank you very much. That happens, that happens'll be.
It'll be fun, all right. I think that I think we're talking. You know, maybe ten percent sounds insanely high, but I just in the back of my head because again, like I heard that story in the moment, you know, during camp last year, and I laughed it off from like Patriots insider that there was like bad blood all of a sudden between Belichick and Jones, and I was like what And then I heard it separately second source to completely different orbits. So now I pretty much assume
it's true. And you know, the idea that Belichick is not going into camp this year with Mac Jones's QB one I think is you know, starting to look more and more likely in my mind.
Do you imagine that happens?
Okay?
So, I mean, the Patriots are going to be fourth favorite and division even with me, right, so why not why not try to get the next, you know, the next best thing?
And he had a terrible year, I mean terrible year when you're expected to improve off your you know, the rookie year that everybody loves so much.
So okay, good point.
There's multiple to win on an NFL draft information based betting vehicle. You pointed out a couple of these on your podcast, which is, you know, one you go with a long shot play and you have enough conviction to make the bet and then somehow it manifests over time. Sure, some people hit Derek Stingley and third pick last year at one hundred to one. My number wasn't quite that high,
but hit that as well. Then there's the opposite of that, which is something is so obvious to happen that you're willing to lay juice even though even though it's a lot of juice, because you're thinking this is a virtual certainty, it's still not high enough.
Let me lay that.
For instance, over five and a half offensive Lineman, I laid minus two eighty one because I think it's going to be six or seven now.
And I'm on the opposite side of you on that one.
Okay, So but those are the two biggest ways.
The other one is you have some inside information and you just you know this is going to happen because you know somebody from some So it's great. It's information based. And just to give a just sort of broad backdrop on this, in Las Vegas, Christy Andrews, who runs the South Point Hotel Casino, which is where we're broadcasting this podcast from Christy Andrews. Last year, after the draft, the draft was in Vegas last year, he came on the show. He's like, I don't think I'm gonna book this again.
Sixteen days before the draft, so that's thirteen days ago he came on a numbers game.
He said, I'm not going to book it. But at least he was.
Honest about it, right, because some of these other like Westgate's not booking it.
There's one bet at betam GM or in Novater.
That MGM has one bet one number one pick one. Yeah, number one pick, which is like unbettable. They haven't stations was the big. They were the big, sort of one that gets applause here. Yeah, they had twenty seven props up. They've had them up for a while. They're taking a dime on everything. Circa's doing the We're gonna put this up for three or four days and then act like we had them up forever, but they're taking a dime all day.
It was Johnny Come Lately for them. Billy Hill to give the them credit, had.
Up five for a good for a good one, five different props and that's it. Yeah, BOYD has a few boys limited but oh well.
Yeah, and they close, they close, and they close, they close. So I got last night to look and I was gonna try to make it be like they just at ten pm. They just close. All the all the numbers are turned a little locks and they're like business is off. Yeah, business is closed. You can come back in the morning if you want a felt.
So that's that's the state of affair in affairs in Nevada. It's like getting You would think it would grow and grow. It's the opposite direction here.
Uh.
You were saying Drew before the show that there's some other weird things that.
Are happening with it.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's just a it's it's been tougher to get liquidity into this draft pool than any you're I've been betting it. There are some funny wrinkles where if you find a long shot you like and you want to get more down at a legal shop, you can parlay it with some stuff that's very very likely to be graded between now and then, like nuggets to beat the Wolves and Celtics to beat the Hawks,
like the limit parling. Yeah, if you put together multiple parlay legs, you basically are allowed that bet on every leg more or less, and that just you know, it's it's silly, but it's a fun way around the some of the the headaches of getting money down here. But yeah, I know, it's it's been very tough.
How did you how did you find that out? By the way, were you like, I'll parlay this with EGA, Like, what did you do?
I was just trying you try it. You know, it's just just testing raptors. Raptors testing the fence skill.
You know.
That's that's why they lock them at Boyd overnight because that's what people like me get up and start testing the fence and you know, you don't want to walk in in the morning and say, what in the heck what happened?
What just happened here?
Like we didn't want this position and now we've got it, and uh, you know, I I think I think it's silly to be precious about booking the draft personally, because I you know, this year, if you were doing a good job of managing risk, you're sitting on massive plus ev bets that you wrote for CJ Stroud to go first overall, Like those were those.
Are dead, those tickets are dead. That that's that's your money you want.
If you were you were booking aggressively, if you were taking big limits at the time when everybody was so sure that they traded up for CJ. Stroud, you should be You should have a good day regardless of what.
Happens on the rest of the board.
And you know, you know, I think if you if you're writing more action, you know, in that in the truly speculative part of the cycle, which is February March, then you know you're going to come out ahead on
a book. And that the more dangerous thing is what they actually did this cycle, which is opening a bunch with high liquidity right at the end when it's a lot more known, because now anything that goes is going one one way, Like there's not going to be any kind of, uh, you know, huge swings between now and the draft, unless you know something that we're all assuming is likely just becomes completely you know, blown up out of the water, like some team trades up into the
two and is like we love CJ. Stroud, Like that doesn't seem like it's happening. But you know, that would be the only sort of chaotic, you know, chaotic event that could swing things.
Yeah, I'd like to give my annual disclaimer on the podcast here, which is, please, I welcome the opportunity to get limited on these these markets and whatever. I welcome the opportunity like if if, if you only are gonna let me get two hundred down. I don't care. Let me get two hundred down. But we don't even have the options, right, Like, that's that's the biggest thing for me.
Right, Like this is we talked about this on Primetime Action all the time. We are in many ways way too close to the sun.
Right.
We deal with a very small subset of people who love to bet lots of.
Money on things. We're all that person. Okay, most people are not like that, right, And I'm with you.
Like for all the chirping that get the book on book crime that we hear from one book here where it's like, ah, those guys that don't take anything, only.
Take two hundred and fifty. I'm like, I can get zero. I mean, get me to fifty. I can get zero. Like the mine is zero, like my max is zero. Totally, you know.
Okay, So three days the other real quick on disclaimer and annual disclaimer stuff.
I will say it again for the million of the year in a row.
Like offer offer as much as you possibly can on the draft to your players. Because there are there is a huge class of betters, particularly new betters, that only bet the NFL or they only bet football. And you know what those guys have been doing sitting around since the Super Bowl. They've been thinking, God, I wish I could bet on the NFL or something. And now here you have an opportunity for all those guys to go and run and deposit into their accounts, make a bunch
of bets. Some of them are gonna win, some of them are gonna be stupid. Even if you get beat on the draft those players are, then they're not gonna Nobody has the discipline to immediately withdraw all those winnings and then go on the summer vacation. They're going to donk a bunch of that on NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, Baseball. It's all coming back. Don't have to wait a week. The Kentucky Tucky in a week.
It might not last a week exactly.
They should treat this like a betting event and make it like a bonus for the players.
Get all that money back. You're gonna engender good will.
Since we're in the disclaimer moment, let me just put this one into. None of this, whether it's this draft special or any draft special that we've ever done here in Beating the Book podcast, has anything to do with our talent evaluation of these players. Just because I think that CJ. Stroud is better than these players, That's not what I'm betting. I couldn't care less. And no point have we, the three of us, ever talked about all this guy. The reason is is this guy's better than
that guy. I know, we're just betting what we think is going to happen, and that needs to be stated over and over again. Apparently if I may say, okay, so Matt, yes, we're three days before the draft before we get to what you've bet, what you like, and what you don't like about what you've bet. If someone were landing on this right now, what's the best bet on the board that currently exists, I think.
You can go in and if you look, a lot of people like to bet a little to win a lot, right more than what they're betting. They don't like to
lay big juice. And so if you're more of a casual better I think that we are getting to the point where, like the over two and a half tight ends is over two dollars now, and Darnell Washington continues to get an incredible amount of buzz and a credible amount of steam, and you start to look at some of these teams at the bottom of the draft that, look, they need pass catchers, but that doesn't necessarily mean wide receivers, right, And like you look at a guy like Darneld Washington,
who's six foot seven, who's you know, runs a four or five five. Maybe it's just a freak of nature. And if you kind of start to look comparatively to the other guys that are the no brainer tight ends, then he leads them in yards per target, yards per catch, explosive play percentage, and yards per catch after the reception. He's better than Mary Kinkaid and all of those categories and stuff. He just wasn't utilized as much there because
you had all those different weapons at Georgia. So I mean over a couple bills for over two and a half tight ends. I think once you get towards the bottom, I mean, you really start to link some of these teams to pass catchers. And maybe that pass catcher doesn't necessly mean wide receiver. It could mean it could mean tied end.
And of course the other two being Kinkaid and Mayor being the sort of done deal.
I heard too many spooky things about red flags medically with Washington to get involved with that, but I agreed generally that there's a philosophy you can apply and make a good bet and have a fun draft night. And it's over offensive players sixteen and a half.
Right now.
The guys that are sneaking into the bottom around one based on all of the you know, based on all of the buzz, potentially a second running back, potentially a fifth quarterback.
I agree with.
Gil about offensive lineman could easily see six or seven not hearing a lot of buzz that there's going to be some big push to go, you know, to reach for an edge rusher because they're just not that good once you get to the second tier. Not no, you know, the cornerbacks are a little spooky because there's a very deep cornerback class and they're very talented, and you know, you could see you know, a decent amount of dbs
go in the twenties and thirties. But I think right now over sixteen and a half, offensive players should be more like minus three hundred and it's like minus one fifteen.
Did you mention this that there's thirty one picks in this in this first round as well? Did you mention that that's true?
Yeah, that's that's no, I didn't mention it, but that is true.
But they didn't. They didn't. They didn't bottle that one. They got that right when they add up the offense in the defense.
So's free money there.
I'm gonna say it's the Will Anderson over three and a half, which you can still get at minus one seventy. I know it's not the sexiest juice in the world to delay minus one seven?
Is that for everybody?
But that should be way higher, shouldn't it, Like, is there any scenario where he goes top three?
At this point?
It's one out right, it seems like it's one out like it seems like because like we don't assume that two A and three are going to both go without being a quarterback being taken. So it's kind of like it's it's it's it's a one out bet, and so I don't like making one out bet, so I always go to the over them.
So yeah, yeah, I will.
I will say the The only hard intel that I have is that Wilson is over Anderson on Arizona's board. So if they it goes QBQB, I think Wilson is very very likely the third pick if Arizona can't trade, which is I think by the most that's the most likely one two three. But yeah, I mean if if if the Texans were so sold on taking a defensive player, and if that player was Will Anderson, there's no reason that they wouldn't be getting the fan base pipe hyped
about that, right like they should. The pr campaign should already be in motion that this is guy's generational defensive player, is going to be the quarterback of our defense under DeMeco Ryans for the next.
Ten years, right Like.
I don't have heard intel that Wilson is over Anderson on the Texans board, but it seems pretty likely.
And I think there are you know, there are.
Just enough general boards that I've heard now across the NFL that have Wilson as the first defensive player that, yeah, I think Anderson over is a fair bedup.
He said minus one seventy.
Yeah, minus one seventy. That doesn't sound too bad.
What's that?
What's the deal with Anderson?
Is he just considered they'll be this really good, solid pro He's just not going to be that fantastic or what I mean?
What is high high flor low ceiling high flora.
Low ceiling, which you don't pick high.
Yeah. Yeah.
Basically, the the the read I get from people who are connected on Anderson is he could if he can put on fifteen pounds, he could be a Khalil mac type contributor. Okay, that's so that's conditional, and his ceiling is Khalil Mack. If he adds fifteen pounds is probably
a little scary. He doesn't have elite bend, depending on what you think bend means, but apparently apparently he doesn't have it, And you know, for those reasons, I think he's you know, he's he's if his contributions are largely in the run game and you know he's not going to be able to beat offensive tackles regularly with his bend at the NFL, then I think for those reasons, he's like a he's a guy you can count on to start for ten years, but he's not going to ever win you a Super Bowl.
The one other one that's not in my account yet that I'm really considering is just that you can have the team to draft player and you can get those at super long odds, and it's just kind of more of a fun sweat type than anything else, and like Seattle Seahawks for Hendon Hooker at like ten eleven to one is still out there, and I think you have two outs with that, because the thing is is if they don't take him at twenty, they actually have via trade with Denver they pick at thirty seven in the
second round as well. Right, so they're at the top of the second round, and the teams in front of them in the second round or Pittsburgh not Houston, well we assume not if they what are Arizona not in
an Indianapolis not? So like you have Seattle there at the top of the second round as well to where if Hendon Hooker is still around, I can't imagine them passing again at thirty seven, right, if they don't take him at twenty, then you have the out there again at thirty seven again, so at ten eleven to one something like that. I think that that again, if you want kind of a fun bet that pays off a lot, can.
We talk of that you alluded to there for a second.
So there was the four and a half quarterbacks prop first round, which at one point at DraftKings was plus five point fifty to the over, which I said on the air, I'm like, you gotta bet that it's plus five to fifty. Do you think we're not going to get five in the first round.
I think it's pretty live. We see people reach for quarterbacks all the time. Man Like, we see people reach all the time. They get nervous and they come back in and they take that quarterback and.
It's it's minus money.
Now though it's yes, not a bet that I would make. I'm just on the general. Do I think it could possibly happen here? I mean, everyone keeps talking about the age, right, Will Evis is gonna be twenty four, Like you know, Dalton kin K's gonna be twenty four.
It is amazing how hypocritical.
Like everyone keeps bringing up the age, like hen Hooker's twenty five. He would play in his year twenty six season. Right, if you get eight good years out of quarterback, he's thirty four, that's very normal, that's very like what team, what franchise is going to be like freaking out, like be like, we only got eight good years out of a starting quarterback. Most teams are like trying to redo their quarterback situation every two years, you know, So I don't know, I.
Yourews getting ready to explode. I think I can tell.
But no, no, no, no, no, I'm laughing. I think this is very very valid. Yeah.
The idea of can't take a guy we're only going to get eight years out of is pretty funny.
Okay, So that's why I bet it meant very low plus money. I think we didn't have the plus five fifty here, but good lord, if plus five fifty, I was like, you gotta bet that and see what happens. Is the offensive lineman in terms of the position ones, that's the one you're most confident in.
Drew the over to five and a half, you're going the other way.
Yeah, let me see what the numbers is. That was just because that was because the number swung all the way to plus three twenty on on the under, and for me, I think that there's four dead for sure, five very likely, and then I think the six is kind of teetering a little bit. And certainly if we go over on the tight end type deal, then that's
a lineman that's probably taken off the board. If we go over on the wide receivers is three and a half, then that's the lineman that would probably be taken off, So I don't know. It was just more of the over three to one type number play there for me than it was anything else. I think Scronsky John Jones right for sure. I think Torrents probably goes as well. I think those five, but the sixth one, I think is still kind of a coin toss. And so that's why.
What about the people who wants the title, they'll they'll want the tight ends to be counted as offensive linemen, and they last for a refund. What about that.
Crowd, it's happening, it's happen.
Where's my refund?
Yeah?
Yeah, I think over five and a half offensive lineman should be more like minus five hundred dish I like. And that's really the reason is just I've heard enough now that how many Round one players are graded this year? This year's class is how deep?
Is it?
Right?
Like?
Is it good?
And most teams I think are in the fifteen to twenty five range in terms of players they have a first round great on And if you're picking in the late twenties low thirties this year and you need a starting center or guard, you know, or you you want to swing tackle, like, that's kind of the you know, the the players that all sit there right out, you know, right lower than a first round grade, who you would potentially use your capital on if you're in that range.
There are a couple of Yeah, I think at least Anton is more likely than it sounds like Matt thinks to go in round one. And then yeah, a couple of these guards Tipman jms Avola all realistically possible to get snapped up at the end around one.
Okay, I asked this of I asked this of Kelly earlier on the show. Because of the uncertain nature of this draft, I'm gonna get I'm gonna guess I'm gonna get a no from both of you. But I asked this of Kelly, which is, if you could take a net positive gain right now of any amount, even if it's just a modest one on this on all your NFL draft bets, would you take the modest gain right now? Because I know we're used to crushing this probably probably, I mean, but on.
This one, would you just take it right now and call it to day ill?
I mean, for one, I have about half of the money in play that I I've had the last three years as well, and that's just because again as I've gotten older and more mature, like, I don't just fire to fire, right, like, I'm only trying to make bets that I think I can win. And so I didn't just make bets to make sure that I have the same amount of action this year as I've had in previous years. And with all that, I mean you mentioned
we're gonna run through our bet. There's a couple that I bet early on that I don't love anymore, and there's this all that. So yeah, I mean if somebody came in and said, hey, you can get a steak dinner out of this, I'd bet pretty good.
You want to two years, go through years?
Yeah, I mean, look, so number one is going to work out well for me. And that's why I can't really lose. I don't think really on this because so I did lose. I did the whole thing where, you know, in the off season, right, so I had I had Levis at forty to one and forty five to one, I had a Oker at ninety to one. I had Richardson at thirty to one. Because I just took all those guys before the season even started and thought that
maybe they could rock it. Well, that put me in a good position when it started kind of looking more and more like Bryce shung, so then got Bryce got bright showing. And then when the thing swung all the way to him at like plus two seventy five, I just came in and got more right at plus two seventy five. So at least first overall is going to get me pretty good. So that's kind of where I am with that. The over will Anderson over three and a half, which was sweaty there for a while.
I remember, you got nervous.
Sweaty that because as soon as that hit, it was like bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it. And then and then then I was like, oh boy, this was this is going to be bad news for me. Yeah, real early in the draft. But at least that's not as bad anymore. They put up a bad number on Levis at seven and a half, the opened is over under at that was able to get in on the under at seven and a half.
But even that, even that, like a week or two ago, didn't seem that outlandish, right, I didn't think he'd.
Get past the raiders. Then, you know, I don't know, I you know, it's I don't know. I thought the under was a pretty good bet there.
That was.
It was pretty juicy. Mounts on sixty bit still took that. I this is the one where I said I bet it early. I don't really love anymore. I have over three and a half receivers. It seems like Smith and jib Go, Flowers and Addison are are going to go at some point. But it seems like Johnston's fallen out of favor with a lot of people. I thought people might fall in love with Jalen Hyatt just from like the kind of hey, there's not really that O take the top off guy, and like, hey, could we add that.
I don't think it's out of play, even for the Chiefs at the last pick of the first round, where if you go to Patrick Mahomes and say, hey, dude, do you want a burner? Like this is this a guy you like? We invested a half a billion dollars in you, so do you like this guy?
It does seem like, you know, for a league that's so pass happy and for as many wide receivers that are panning out that this draft seemed weird in that it seems weird in that respect, like it's not like this super wide receiver.
I don't think it's dead, but I don't like it as much as when I made it, you know, kind of the first go around with everything I thought people. I thought Josh downs would actually start to get some buzz too. I thought maybe people start to like him. That hasn't really manifested, So that one I don't love near as much. I do like Jackson, Swift and Jig. But over eleven and a half. They opened that number to eleven and a half and I took the over on that. It looks like that is going to probably
pan out, So do like that one. Like I said, I have the under five and a half offensive lineman. That one is again, it's just a more of a number play. The over two and a half tight ends as it got over two dollars came in and made that one as well, and I took Paris Johnson over Skronsky. I know you have Skronsky over.
Paris john We're I think you're right about that now.
Yeah, so I took Paris Johnson over Skronsky in this one. It's probably a coin flip at this point, so I don't feel super confident in that one. I think it's going to be just what people decide that they like. I know, Skronsky seems to be more versatile. They're saying he could play guard or tackle, and if you want, if teams value that, I don't, you know, I don't
really know. But uh so those are the ones that I kind of have in right now, and I said a few other ones that I'm eyeing if we get at least a little bit more information, but just not a not a huge, huge, huge card.
Yeah, young Gill would take the plus money right now because I got a bunch of stinkers here at the top.
Yeah, I really would.
I mean, just being honest, you're holding some poison.
Well here's the thing. All of mine seemed like, oh what a great bet I just made. Four days later, I'm like, I'm the smartest person in the room, and then it just goes the other way. So I had CJ strauted plus six ' eighty two and plus three forty to go number one. So those are let's take two units off the top right there. Uh then I have Jackson Smith Jigba, which my best bet is first wide out drafted. I have at plus three fifty, he's like minus three fifty now, so that's one that I
could get Ahole bunch back on. But then I have him under twelve and a half at plus two hundred, and I have him under fourteen and a half under fourteen and a half also at plus one twenty. And then I have Zay Flowers with a lot of juice over twenty one and a half. So I don't know, Like, if Jay Flowers goes before the twenty, you know, twenty one and down, I'm in trouble.
Hopefully he goes along.
Now the other ones, I have Lucas van Ness to be a top ten pick at plus two sixty and under eleven and a half at plus two fifteen. If the Eagles grab him at ten, I could be okay, that's the rumor. There's also maybe the Falcons at eight, but the Eagles at ten, and the Eagles have been rumored to be picking tons.
Of different people. Yeah.
Then I have Broderick Jones over thirteen and a half from Georgia plus money. I do have Scarronsky over Paris Johnson. That does appear to be a loser. I think you're gonna win that. I have the over five and a half offensive lineman lank a lotta juice mineus to eighty one. I did take the over four and a half quarterbacks at even money, and then the position of the Patriots first selection at quarterback at eight to one, which if that hits you can forget about it.
I have a winning draft and everybody can go to hell.
So anyway, there's a lot of those that suck, right, there's a good handful of those that are sucking, and I'm going to need to hit a couple of those plus money ones to make up for them and maybe get into positive territory.
Drew, you, what do you got?
Uh? I?
When we talked last Wednesday, I was live or die with Levice going in the top seven because I nuked that under for him that no longer is now. I basically am assuming that that's cash. I'm assuming basically top anything, top four for Levis's cash. Too many connected people putting him four to the colts this morning to think that
he slides past four if he's even available. Right, So Levis is still going to make or break my day, probably, but I'm almost certainly going to come out ahead on those plays.
And then.
I have some wild, wild, wild ones like Tyree Wilson to go to in the twenty to one range. Oh, that's good, I could Yeah, I think right now, I think it's Levis. Levis two would pay me the most. What I ended up getting a pretty decent chunk down at Circa on the exact number two there. I think I'm kind of in the to win ten k Is range across those bets. The so Levis going too would be the best for me by far.
CJ. Stroud going fourth.
I got that at thirty five to one back when there was still some uncertainty whether he was going to go one or not, because I was like, man, what if if they take Bryce young and and then two and three aren't even quarterbacks?
CJ. Stroud could go forth.
This is before his quote unquote catastrophic visit with the Colts.
But he walked in and started cursing at him. Hey, fuck you guys.
Yeah, they're they're like, we don't like your test scores, like you, Let me tell you what I think about those test scores, buddy.
Way those test scores were referring Those test scores were referring to leaked You can choose to believe that the leak is accurate from these s two cognitive scores, which I guess is a it's a cognition it's not an IQ test like wondered, like, but it's like this cognition test of quarterbacks sit down and they like remove players from the screen and you have to like tell them, oh, these players ought to be these people, they ought to be here whatever it is, like a football IQ thing.
And he got eighteenth percentile according to the league.
That's not very good.
Where's Bryce Young was ninety ninth or ninety eight, So that's good. Yeah, that's Drew has done the math that is good?
Are Yeah, honestly whether or not that matters, who cares. It's in vogue.
It's in vogue the cycle. We're predicting what people are going to, you know, how are they're how they're coming up with their boards. They're using it right, This is not speculative, not wonder anymore.
I don't think I don't think we are. But if we are, we're not leaking.
Okay, we don't want to look at but is out.
The counter argument to that would be for the cognitive for the anti cognition, But like does that does that cognitive cognition test make him six does make it Bryce Young?
Does he make Bryce Young sixty three?
You know?
So I don't know, but apparently, but David Tepper, like if all things were equal, David Tepper, for instance, an analytics guy, he might take that and say, that's why we're drafting Bryce Young.
That's why we're drafting him. No, it is, and just on that note, like it is hysterical. Now that twice in reason memory a team made traded up an enormous amount of equity to go get a specific player and then ultimately drafted a different player like that happened with the Niners too. Every single report Niners went up to go get mac Jones. If they had not traded up, Mac Jones would have been available with them at that pick,
it turns out. And similarly c J. Stroud, if they had stuck at nine, c J. Stroud probably going to be available for them at that pick. And so ultimately, like two times this has happened now, which is just hysterical. But the yeah, best outcome for me for by far Leve is going two to whoever.
I don't care, and then if CJ.
Stroud ultimately gets picked forth because the Colts did a great job at kind of disguising their true interest in him. Then thirty five to one coming home for me would be pretty sweet. That's kind of it that I have. That's sort of live in the really really really long shot markets.
Everything else I got.
I laid a bunch of juice on a bunch of things, the Levis unders, the will Anderson overs. Actually I didn't lay a ton of juice on that. Most of my Andrews will Anderson over I'm in like minus one twelve. Minus one twenty was where I stopped going over three and a half. There I stopped. I stopped Levis under
four and a half at minus two seventy two. That was the heaviest I laid on Levis Under the offensive lineman we talked about, I laid up to I think about minus two eighty and it's it's in like the minus four hundred dish range. Now I think again, I do think there's plus ev to be had on over sixteen and a half offensive players, just because offensive lineman count, running backs count tight ends, even if there happened to be three quarterbacks, even if they happened to be five, like,
all of that counts. I don't get any sense that there's going to be a late push to use your draft capital to take defensive linemen or linebackers or safeties or any of that stuff late in the first round. So it's going to be all offensive players late as far as I can tell you.
So sixteen and a half it's like a good.
Number thinking about your scenario about quarterbacks, teams training up for quarterbacks. I'm sure I can't remember where the Bears traded from, but Mitch t Bisky would have been available.
Wherever they they picked as well. Yeah, that's true. And you know, kind of kind of other kind of funny notes for you guys. So you mentioned the Eagles have been linked to everyone depending on who you listen to. They have done an outstanding job at the misinformation game this year.
For sure, What team do you believe the most and what team do you believe.
The least this year? Believe the least is Bears number one. I think the Bears were only really ever. I think that Panthers were negotiating against themselves to get up to the one I really think that that's likely. I don't know that they had any other good offers for the one pick. And then the Bears now are kind of.
They have seem to have a strategy where everyone tells someone someone different and then we'll see if that drives interest in the nine because I think they want to continue to trade down and accumulate assets as opposed to take an offensive.
Tackle ninth or whatever.
But yeah, I think the Bears have been sort of the most effective at misinformation Eagles second this year.
And you know, crazy stuff happens, like some of the rumors that were.
Floated around about Kevon Thibodeau last year all came from the Giants and then they ultimately took him forth. You know, so teams are getting a little bit better at the lion game.
I think Giants a totally yeah that oh.
Man, they get the They got the Lyning Award for the for last year's draft by a long shot. I think they were also probably behind floating the injury stuff about Evid Deal that slid him to seven.
They took him.
Uh so yeah, there was they. They they were kind of the masters of the disinformation game last year. So far this year, I think it's the Bears and uh, you know, they may end up with Jalen Carr out of it all, and he may be a true blue chip player for them for the foreseeable future, and you know, congrats to them.
But meanwhile, the the Colts are super straightforward. They're like, we're taking Levis, that's our Yes.
Yeah, they yeah, they at least in history they've been the least deceptive.
The The other thing, just as a disclaimer as we get off of here, Gil is that be sure and click around in the different markets because there's ways to make the exact same bet.
That's great.
Points that are that the odds are different. So like, so before you make something that seems just crow like, do a couple of other clicks and just see because there's you know, the draft position of of uh Hennen Hooker, for example, said at thirty one and a half and it's like minus one thirty one way or but then like him to be a first rounder is even money.
So there's just there's like different ways if you just click in the different markets because they're not moving in locksteps, so like you can actually kind of save yourself a few pennies here and there by making the exact same bet just in a different tab.
Literally you see that every day with different ones. And Drew's point also like a lot of people who are first time draft betters are gonna hear like, oh he's laying minus two sevens, My sweetie, this is not This does not translate to other sports, right, Like, we're not doing this for a basketball game tonight on the money line, right like this is just about an information based Well maybe that's right.
Maybe I should buy a serious press series.
Press look great to you.
I don't know, I don't know.
Oh, speaking of that, how are the Warriors still this big? Still still like a minus one eighty favorite?
I mean, and I love the Warriors.
But come on, I'll be I'll be one hundred percent honest. It felt like the entire side of the bracket was decided with that Harrison Barnes miss last night.
Oh you fit? I felt that way too.
Yeah, like that's the series.
They probably are winning the second round, Like start start figuring out Warriors versus the Sons or the Nuggets.
Let's go Dubs by the way them. It's all another thing. But like ESPN just completely botched that Steph Curry time out there esterd Mark Jones had no idea, Doris Burke had no idea.
Milke Anders didn't follow up on it. Jalen Rose only mentioned it five minutes into the studio.
Show was a total botch.
Okay, real quick, good again, good series, great series.
We got to run out of here on this. But I had a couple of rapid fire questions.
One also, okay, because I know you like doing this, the scenario that takes place that will make your draft, then you'll be like, doesn't matter what else happens, I'm good. And the scenario that will destroy your.
Draft, destroy for sure, as if as if Will Anderson goes in the top three picks, that's it. Sure. Yeah. I thought it was almost a zero percent chance when they opened that number. I was like, look, these quarterbacks are too heavily coveted that someone's gonna take. It's gonna be he's gonna get pushed out, and there's other defensive players that could push him out as well. I thought that was a lock. If he goes three, it's gonna be a not great. Yeah, it's gonna be a not Yeah,
it's gonna be a not great. It's that's that's what we're gonna be hoping to push like break even, Like that's going to be a a break even scenario. I mean, I guess for me at this point, I stand to make the most money on the on if if there's actually over three and a half receivers taking because like I said, I bet that super early. I thought it was like a bad number. It seemed like Johnston was certainly going in the first round. I thought other guys
would make it in as well. So if four receivers end up going in the first round, then it'll be a it'll be a pretty nice draft for sure.
Same worst case as will Anderson gets drafted second by by by an absolute country mile that.
Well, I will be specific second, specifically.
Second, it would because that sets up almost surely Wilson goes three, and then I am literally just pouring sweat that the Colts walk up and take will love is Forth, like just in like just miserable fifteen minutes of that clock counting down to know what the Colts pick is because I don't want to count on you know, you know, Colts having to take loves Forth if it comes to that.
So yeah, the best case scenario by far is young Levice, Titans trade up to three, take Richardson, Colts begrudgingly takes Stroud. I think I think almost everything is green in my account.
If that happens first four picks.
I'm just trying to break even at this point, I really am.
I'm just trying to break you because I have enough stinkers in there that I'm just going to have to hit some of these others. It could definitely be a winning draft. Every one of these drafts has been winner. But at some point all of us are going to have a losing draft. And the irony, as we talked about earlier, is this is the one they least want a book.
This could have been it for you as you got live.
The worst case scenario would be Stroud to go one for me because he's the only guy that I'm I have no exposure to because I have I mean, I have Levis, I have Richardson, I have Hooker, I have Young, I have no Stroud, like I never bought into the Stroud thing. And so if he goes one out of nowhere, then yes, y'all will not hear from me for a week after that, Like then we're just out of here.
If Stroud goes number one, my draft is over. I'm a winter and Deuce is all of you.
I will drop the mic again on everybody I'd be like, I all, do we I mean, let's let's end on that.
Do we hold a small inkling that that could possibly happen? That that the Panthers are the biggest bullshitters of everybody.
The reason I didn't believe it from the get go was because I thought the off season moves but that the Panthers made weren't of a were of a team that thinks that they can win the division like this year, and you just plug in Gryce Young and like they think they mean, you don't go get Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders and Hayden Hurst and like all these guys that got like two or three good years left maybe
tops Like that's not building for the future. That's like we we think we can win today, right Like we're making signings that we think we can win right now. And so that's why I just kind of thought DJ Chark, they go signed, you know, all these guys that it seems like, no, let's make a run at this pretty poor division right like this year. So that was kind of that's kind of I don't think I think it's I think it's too Yeah.
I don't think so either, as much as I would like to. I don't think so either. Dr I'm guessing you don't think so either.
Yeah, I mean every year is a little different.
I was.
I had less confidence last year that Trayvon Walker was going to go one, and we had a very good source that said that that was I forget the GM. What's what's the jack's GM guy, Charl Balki. We had every a very good info that Balki's pick was Trayvon Walker. The coach wanted an alignment, The owner leaned the Hutchinson and they hashed it all out in the hours before the you know, the draft. There could be something like that, but from what I understand, at least, this is the
owner's decision. He's you know, he's kind of driving the boat here and young is his guy, so you know.
He could be talked out of it, but I doubt it.
Oh, randomly, I lied randomly. Have you ever heard a player connected to more teams than Bijon Robinson has been connected to?
No, that's pretty he's every year. This is pretty unique.
Yeah, I have no idea.
You want an insane long shot. I don't hate Jon Robinson's second running back at like fifty to one there was a bunch of weird buzz for Gibbs out of Georgia.
Today out of Alabama, Alabama.
A yeah, Junior Gibbs out Alabama. A bunch of weird buzz on Gibbs today. And if some like the idea that some teams actually have him RB one on their board, Kelly.
Called us weeks ago at four to one, and he never bet it.
Well you can get you can get b Jon Robinson RB two at fifty to one, now, which I do think is wow, probably about right, but it's close.
Okay.
Last thing, I lot again, team most associated with, Like what team and position is in most lockstep?
Like what's the what team? Like is it the Jets offensive line?
Like what is it where you're like that team is absolutely drafting this position, period, no matter how it goes.
I think the Bengals are taking one of the two tight ends, like like it just seems they're just so much pointing to that that they don't have anyone at that position. They lost everybody they go in, they give Burrow like this dream offense and then they make this run for whatever. I mean, it's everybody has them taking a tight end. Everyone has them taking one of the
guys that's available there. It seems just too obvious. It's like the Nashi hairt you know, It's just like the this is so obvious, it's probably just going to happen. It seems so credibly obvious that.
The Steelers are super obvious too. They're they're super honest about stuff. We're drafting Najie Harrison. That's all there is too.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think Steelers probably in the offensive line market this year, although I've heard buzz that they may or at least they explored the idea of trading up for Gonzalez to cornerback. But I think they just end up taking best tackle available in their spot. I think your commanders probably are going to go offensive line Gill, so, I think they're going to take a tackle.
I think they've been smoked.
They've been smoke screening a lot of other stuff that to me, and but but actually doing the most due diligence on tackles. I think Raiders cornerback would be my would be pretty strong link there. I think Giants wide receiver is a pretty strong link.
It's about all it was the last time they had a good wide receiver. Yeah, Well, Washington could do all kinds of things.
Bijon c J. Strat there available. By the way, my best case scenario this is ridiculous. My best case scenarios come is if c J. Stroud goes one and then the Patriots trade up and get.
LEVI Us at two. If those two things happen, y'all can go to hell.
You can just turn the draft off. That's right. See you later.
I figured out everything thanks to Jews rumor. All right, guys, we got to run because they got a heart out here. I appreciate it. Good luck man, good luck to both of you, Good luck to everybody who's betting this. And you know, this is one of these things I just have to say, like when we plan when we have a draft podcast, it's one of the more difficult things to decide when to do one.
You're nodding Drew.
As well, because it's like stuff is happening so quickly, especially now it's all changing, that you can't do it too soon because then it becomes stupid, and you can't do it too late because then there's no bets whatsoever. So there is kind of this very small pocket I think between like a week before and five days before and you just try to thread the needle on both of those things, but there is no exact time to do it, and we'll see how valid this is three
days from now. Drew Densick Dive podcast and the Bety Edge podcast from NBC Sports at Whale Underscore Capper, and Matt Brown, who is the co host of The Handle, which he does with Dave Ross right here at v SIN as.
Well at what is It? M Brown two?
What is it?
What is your Matt Brown too? What is your Matt Brown?
M two?
You don't even know?
Yes Brown, M two, Gil Alexander, good luck with all your bets in the National Football League you're at.
Thanks for listening.