Beating the Book: The 2022 NFL Draft Betting Special

I don't know. Let's called intel. Let's called intel. I don't know how he'll characterize it. The Bear from ESPN's College Game Day of course, Stanford Stephen the Bear podcast and ESPNS Daily Wager. It's our friend Chris Felika. How you guys doing. I'm doing so. Do I have a roll of golden get into it as long as it

lasts a year? Yes, Well we'll carry it through next year. Now, okay, Uh So we'll just start here because there's so much to get to, but well, we'll just start with the news of the day is that the market is moving very strongly as it started to this weekend at the top of the draft. UH and now we're seeing tray Von Walker as high as minus two fifty in some

spots to be the number one pick in the draft. Chris, I was telling you this weekend, I made a there was an Aiden Hutchinson minus at number one, and then at Aiden Hutchinson plus one at number two. I went ahead and did that little ship and again, UH to try to bankroll build because I don't to me, if Trayvon Walker is going number one, Detroit is gonna sprint

to the to the podium to draft Aden Hutchinson. What are you hearing at the top of Do you believe that Trayvon Walker will now three days out be the first pick? It seems like that's the direction that this is, that this is headed, and it's it's surprising to me, and at the same time, it's not necessarily surprising to me.

I was just listening to to Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher, and Michael seemed to think that it was a there was a little bit of a not a battle, but in the corner oftionson Balky is in the corner of Walker, and he would assume that if you're you're going to in making thatsation. So it looks like Walker is going

to be the pick. And if you're looking to invest and want to bet that, like I had to write a column for ESPN dot com, and you could play Walker and lay the twenty five or two fifty whatever it is to go one. You can lay Walker under three and a half and an even bigger juice, or the best way to play it, I think is to take Gaden Hutchinson over one and a half, which was one nineties Caesar's like that, that's the best bang for

your bucket. You do think that Walker is going to be the pick, and and we've talked about this a couple of times where if you just take a look at production in college van Aiden Hutchinson's numbers and everything, he's the pick. But at the same time, if you look at that orange ball game, how he was absolutely manhandled and taken out of the game by a Georgia offensive line that was going up against Trai one Walker

every day in practice. And you would assume that the Jaguars football operation, the football scouting people kind of had conversations with Georgia, maybe they got some Georgia practice moment so about what Trey Walker was doing to that offensive line in practice, like maybe maybe that that came into play. But if you're just dropping into a vacuum and you saw the orange bull Walkers the pick, if you're looking at the grand scheme of things and looking at production,

then Hutchinson to pick. But I do think it's gonna come out and play where where walk is the number one to go? Overall? The thing? The thing is if it's interesting, because if Trayvon is not the number one pick, where does he go? Which is? Which is because the way that it looks now to me and Drew, I'll send this to you, and much of this might be through the lens of the bets I made, which we'll

get to. But it feels like it's Trayvon one, Aidan Hutchinson two, um some some version of Thibodeau and the two corners Stingy and Sauce Gardener at three and four, not necessarily in that order, and then Charles Cross at five. That feels to me right now again a little more than seventy two hours out to be one to three, four and five. I'm not sure how you feel about that, Drew. No, I think the point you're making it can be even expanded more broadly, and what you're effectively saying is that

the uncertainty is really really high. That's an obvious you know, the observation of this year's AFT. But even more than that that the you know that if it doesn't go a certain path, then you know, some of these guys, you know they're their their range of where they land could be anywhere from two to seven UM. And that's huge range, honestly, one to seven really for Walker UM.

And you know, I think you're almost better off kind of picking on some trying to pick off big prices this year as opposed to getting cute with the over unders on some of these guys, particularly in the top

ten UM. And what I mean by that is, uh, you know specifically stuff like Stingley, stuff like um Cross, Like if you can nail them to a specific pick five or third right, you're going to get five to one, ten to one type of prices as opposed to just taking like an over under atty you know, at around to pick them UM. And you know that you know that when you have such a high volatility on where these guys all to mily land in terms of the you know, the pick positioning UM, you know, I think

you're almost forced to attack attack things that that way. UM. I agree with the kind of the breakdown that Chris had for the number one overall pick um going and and honestly, this is the craziest number one overall market we've had in at least ten years, maybe more. UM. To this point, I count six different market favorites, UM, and meaningful favorites, you know, not not just not not like you know, not just like, oh well, somebody had

to be at the top of the board. He was plus two hundred, no, like Thibodeaux was minus November, Hutchinson was minus one in December. Well, well it it went, so it went Thibodeaux in November, Hutchinson December, Neil in January. Coming out of the combine, it was Ikey coming out of the after cag and Cam Robinson, it was Hutchinson. I saw how Son as high as minus four d um and then it's now flipped a walker and the you know the walker flip, um is you saw this

coming a couple of weeks ago. UM. If you know, there were a couple of reports people who were close to the Jaguars that just like Chris said, it's split like the defensive coordinators and potentially the owner, uh favorite Hutchinson. Balki was Walker, and Peterson wanted a tackle and you know, just living in that vacuum where well, you know, trying

to figure out, well, who ultimately gets to decide? Is it Dalky like is he you know, is he have enough sway in that room to convince everybody to come in his direction? Um? And if that's the case, then Walker, who was priced in like the plus three fifty range, was a crazy price. Um. And so you know, I'm if that's how this goes, and he ultimately goes number one, overall,

it's going to be a very happy day for me, surely. Um. But the you know, the there is in the back of my head if you have a big price on Walker first overall, I don't think it's crazy at this point to take a little bit of Hutchinson because you know, realistically, yeah, you know, Balki could be out there doing media making it clear that he wanted Walker, knowing that if Walker becomes an all pro, he'll have the deniability. Well, you know, Walker was my guy. I wanted Walker, but the owner

took Hutchinson. You know, he's maybe maybe building himself a little bit of a uh you know, I wanted this guy kind of a case. But ultimately there's a very thin margins between all of these guys in terms of projecting their pro performance. There's no standout superstar to be had, which is why there's so much uncertainty at the top

of the board. And you know, if the Jaguars take a take a prospect in Walker who has every single measurable at the percentile, and he ultimately turns out to be a solid contributor for them, then that's probably the best they can hope for. It's uh, you know, I don't Just before you, I was just gonna say you

had mentioned the number to pick. If it is indeed Walker number one, I think the Lions, I don't know if it's a slam dunk, if they run the card up for Hutchinson, like I know for a fact they like Thibodeau a lot, So like I I think, I think there's gonna be a little bit of a discussion there. So I mean, you can get around two to work.

I think right now. Uh, at Caesar's where I had to take the prices from from my column, it's Walker Hutcherson Walker Thibodeau for both the same price A plus two hundreds, So like it will be one of those two. Uh is that's not gonna be Gardener. It's not going to be a quarterback. But I don't know if it's an automatic slam dunk that it definitely is Hudginson. That didn't make me feel good. This is this is, this

is I probably should have started with this. That the reason that we do an NFL Drive podcast and the reason like I could talk about the NFL Draft, I think I speak for all of us here the entire week leading up to it is because there might not be a better betting vehicle. And this is proven by the results we've all had the last you know, four or five years UM doing this at least uh in the history of Visa doing it on the show. It's

just been an incredible boon for betters. It's why a lot of bookmakers run scared here in Las Vegas where we are here at the D we're broadcasting Life from the D that's owned by Circuit Sports. Circuits Sports still hasn't put out their their draft props. They're supposed to put them out two and a half hour about two

hours from now, which is twelve noon Pacific. Nevada has to take down their lines forty eight hours from now anyway, so they're literally doing a forty eight hour window, um, you know, and that's almost like a concession on their part because they probably rather not book it at all. So the reason that we do a podcast on this

because we all love betting. The draft has been so profitable for us, which brings us then to the question of this year, which is how uncertain We've all just talked about this right now, how uncertain it is compared to pass draft, because there is no you know, Trevor Lawrence is absolutely gonna get picked number one and then

filter on down from there. So I guess the question is, and I think I've asked I might have asked this of both of you on a number his game, what do you feel the most confident that you do know right now beyond the shadow of a doubt? And Chris, I'll start with you, like, what of all the things, and maybe it's not at the top of the draft, maybe it's this tackle will absolutely be drafted by this team, whatever it is, what do you think you know the most.

We're the most confident and the two things that Garrett Wilson's going in the top ten, and I've seen that number move off of ten and a half to nine and a half now, and that at nine and a half it's probably not a play or not as strong of a play. Maybe the Falcons do take him at eight as an instant Calvin Ridley plug in. Maybe he's in play. Is ridiculously high at three to the Texans because nobody really knows what's gonna do with three. Um,

shouldn't they trade that? But I mean, honestly, what are they doing? But yeah, we we we always say trade the pick. Trade, But who's coming up to three in a year where there isn't a quarter after take a point in the top half and the top half of the draft. You're not gonna come up to three to take a wide rece either um or or probably not an offensive linement. But the fact that a ten and a half you're getting Wilson possibility eight to the Falcons,

eight at ten to the Jets. If you can find a ten and a half still out there, that's a play. And the other one, which which was mentioned already, I can't remember if it was by you or if it

was by Drew. The Charles Cross stuff is out there, and I think that is a great example of what what Drew said about finding plus prices, Like he has been very strongly linked to the giants who have five and seven, And you can get him at plus seven hundred to be the fifth pick, you can get him at plus six hundred to be the seventh pick, or you can get him at plus four hundred to be the sixth pick. Like he's gonna go in that range.

So you can really fool around with the plus plus prices there if you want to cover your basis, I mean, get out your your handy arbitrage calculator and if you put a hundred bucks on them just as a base bit to go plus seven hundred, you can play him hundred and sixty bus plus four hundred hundred and fifteen bunks plus six hundred and your profit, or you can just go five or six and you can profit fifty.

Like he's gonna go in that range based on everything that I'm here on like Caroline is not taking a quarterback like that, that that that's not going to happen. I know they don't have the second round pick. But you just cannot take a quarterback that high when you have so many needs and you have so many impact players that you can take a six. But but Across

is definitely gonna go in that five seven range. Yeah, And I should add that before I said it to Drew for the same question, which is uncertainty at the top um A a week quarterback class that influences this as well, Right, nobody willing to trade up because and Chris, I think you said this to me either on air or off, like anybody who takes any of these quarterbacks high is just ridiculous. Um. And then the third thing is, and you alluded to it, we have eight teams that

have two picks a quarter of the league. A quarter of the league has two picks. Also means a quarter doesn't have a pick in the first round, but a quarter has two picks. And it's never happened before. Six is the previous record. Its happened four times, the latest of which was But this is two more teams than that eight, and so will that create a flurry of trades? Will that maybe not create a church flurry of trades?

And it will be some hybrid perhaps in between. And also does that make it more difficult if a team like the Giants have five and seven, the Jets have four and ten, and the lines of two and thirty two and on down the line, does it make it that much more difficult for us to predict what they're going to do with their first pick visa either second pick. Drew, same question for you about what do you think you know?

What do you think you're the most confident in? I would agree that the you know that in general, Umm, I'd say I might. We do not see a quarterback in the top ten. And there's a couple of reasons for that. One is quality of the class, certainly to his need. And third I would say is, uh, you know, the quality of the quarterbacks next year's class really are

are quite good. And I think to your point, if there are trades, and if I was running a team, I mean, you know, you always want to get an impact player and kind of continue to start the development process as quickly as possible. And it's stupid to kind

of completely punt, you know, an entire season. But if I'm a team like the Falcons or the Panthers, I'm I'm perfectly fine punting a season if it means I'm picking at the top of next year's draft, and I can you know, kind of find stability at the quarterback position in an otherwise weak NFC. UM And so if you can trade way picks and get first, you know, more ammunition for next year's draft and doing that, then

that makes a ton of sense to me. Um. And Yeah, I think if there were a team that were sincerely sold in the top ten on a quarterback, we would know more about it, because you need to start preparing your fan base now so that they're not like, you know, it coped by surprise, like, oh, we just took a quarterback and nobody wanted awesome, you know, like you're putting yourself immediately on the hot seat if you haven't warmed up your fan base to the idea of taking your

quarterback already. And so the fact that we're not there as me kind of in that range that the quarterback does not go in the top ten. Um. The other things I would say, we do know relatively high confidence. I think the first four players are going to be defensive players, and I think that helps kind of make one of their sort of generalized statement about the top ten. Uh, if regardless of the order of Walker, Hutchinson, and Thibodeaux. I think you're going to see edge go one to four.

All four teams clearly need an edge. All four teams. You know that, you know some specifically the Jets picking at four. Um, you know, I think would like to address if you can get one of those, you know, the top three elite guys, one of those false to them,

and four they're gonna take them, I think. Um. And then you know, there was a ton of uncertainty for a long time about what Houston will do three, but enough people have been, you know, kind of really trying to ferret out some information there and have come away with the defensive back they're going to take either Stingley or Sauce, whoever they have a higher grade on. And if you read the reports this morning, it sounds like Stingley is the guy. So Stingley at third overall would

be wild. Sting at five to one to go third overall, And I have that in my pocket, So I don't think that's crazy, because so you're betting into five five to one Stingley goes through it overall, that's what is that uh one in six chance that I think it's better who's reporting what this morning. That's just my personal opinion. I mean, that's the thing that people have to understand, like these are that that's the thing about the NFL Draft. Where else will you get such a good bet, right,

a five to one on something like that? And also it's it's the one betting vehicle where I am willing to lay juice in a way that I might not in a standard Wednesday night baseball game. Right, Oh for sure? Yeah,

because they are they're gonna be. There are some props that are up there now that are minus eight, you know, five hundred, so they're you know, they're there implied probabilities in the range, but it's in reality and if you can get a quick turnaround on that kind of stuff, like you you know, the standard practice if you're a professional player, you're firing every piece of liquidity you have available on the Wednesday before the draft because there are

a lot of those types of edges where this is because this is not a random event ultimately like this is, there's a lot of known stuff here, so um I think, and and for what it's worth, liquidity has been super

super shallow all all draft season. Even to this moment, and you mentioned it with Circle not really putting their picks up yet, Like it's been tough to get a decent sized bet written on anything, uh so far, So there's gonna be some Why, you know, a lot of the market moving is on really really low limit stuff, and so you know, I would be somewhat cautious and trying to read too much into that even though we

are a week out from that stuff. But to kind of go back to what we do know though, I think realistically edge edge dB edge for your first four makes total sense and is defensible given the talent pool you have available Giants, that five would then be your first potential landing spot for an offensive player, and tackle has been pretty clearly telegraphed to the Giants. Giants also are weirdly creating a need right now at wide receiver. I don't know if you've heard and seen all this stuff,

but Tony's on the market. Um, they're trying to move, you know. They they've sterling their shopping like they could potentially create a need for themselves at wide receiver based on what they're doing from a trade standpoint. Similarly, Bradberry, they have to move off of brad Berry or else they're not gonna be able to sign their rookie class um. So Bradberry getting traded and creating a need for a

starting defensive back is real for them. So I think with five and seven giants addressed tackle and either one

of defensive back or wider eiver um. And you know, just given that you have three bonified offensive tackles that they have eyes for, and neil Ikey and uh and cross, they may just punt on on tackle at that position and let the Panthers take their choice of tackle at six and then they get one of two that they are acceptable with at seven, or they flip flop and they take their preferred tackle at five and then take say somebody like Sauce Gardner or why best wide receiver

on their board at seven. But I think, realistically, what we're breaking what we're breaking down here, Panthers go tackle at six. What we're at best case scenario, your first tackles off the board of five, your second tackles off the board at six. Where is your third tackle? Even going number nine to Seattle, We're we're talking about sort of implied slide here of the tackles based on where they're currently lined in terms of over unders um, and so if you just kind of hit a over on

Ikey over on Neil. I don't think that's a crazy strategy. At this point, they're getting kind of juicy. Um, but I think one or both of those guys could slide into the you know, six, seven or beyond range. I have to tell you if if it goes by the script you just you decided, it is going to be a fabulous night. I mean literally the only thing so far that has tripped me up, as if it's not hunchreds in it too, and it's hudgets and say it four. Um, if you made me say what is my top four?

Right now? I think it goes Walker Thibodeaux Stingley. It's not the worst outcome. You were you were talking about implied probability and like actual, like real one probability. There's a shop out there that still has over five and a half wide receivers in the first round. MIGHTUS four hundred tell you about that? Because I think six is the baseline, and I think there are at least six

and you probably could get seven. Right. Yeah, I was I was talking with that a friend of ours last week and he was like, well, what, you know, what are you most looking forward to? And I was kind of like, well, I imagine day of the draft. I'm just going to fire all the look qudity I have on on that over five and a half wide receivers,

but a bunch of shops moved it to six. So now you're now you're yeah, you know, you're you're not in as great a spot as you were over five and a half because I could see it landing six. But um, the wide receiver from eight to about sixteen, uh, you realistically could see all five. You can see five guys go in that range and it wouldn't be shocking.

And then at the bottom of the round one you have a bunch of teams that need wide receivers that potentially are then going to reach because they you know, they can't necessarily come out of this draft without addressing that position. Looking squarely at like the Packers and the Chiefs um and so yeah, the idea of getting six or seven wide receivers in round one, I think is

is pretty high probability. I want to I want to I'm blore you guys, but I want to read through all of the draft bets that I have here momentarily, but um, one thing, um, one thing that I want to point out is that sports book point that you made here at Circle, they haven't put them up. Westgate hasn't put them up yet. Again, they're they're reduced to a forty eight hour window and they're doing it by design. South Point just put them out Friday. It's down currently.

I think they're putting it back up this afternoon. So like there's a bunch of shops here in Nevada that have no interest in really in booking this, but they're just doing it to say that they did it in the end and narrowing the window as far as possible. I will shout out Will Hill. I will shout out Stations who are two shops in this town who have put up their bets, who have put up their props weeks ago and are actually taking big bets on all

of them. So good for them. There are others like Boyd that they're taking bets, but not at big limits. MGM has a limited book, but they'll they'll take bets on it, and obviously that's only in Nevada. The Draft Kings of the world have been offering these bets as well. Um, Chris, could you tell peop because there's five states that do not allow per gaming regulations draft bets. Can you tell people what you're doing to make draft bets? Is just

drives on the point you live in Connecticut. I do, and I don't understand and why the state of Connecticut does not allow this. There is no NFL franchise in the state of Connecticut. State of Connecticut. Draft Kings, Fandel sugar House allow awards betting where it's a vote, humans are involved in selecting the winner of these awards. I can bet awards and all things like that, but I

can't get the NFL draft. So, like if they said, okay, like North Carolina for example, Like, at least I understand there's a NFL franchise in Charlotte. We're not going to allow it, Okay, I would at least I wouldn't agree with it, but at least I would understand the process of doing it. Like there's no light. So we lost Chris right there in the middle. He was he's about to tell an unbelievable story about the measures that he's taking. We'll get your back risk go ahead. Yeah, you know.

I I literally am my travels to the draft in Vegas for for work, for for for game day. I'm I made sure I booked a flight through Detroit. They half about an hour layover in Detroit where I can get involved wrap profit pandals rapt in trigger house and in order to get my actionnet because right now in

in Connecticut I can't do anything. So hopefully these numbers will still be favorable to me at a Tuesday around seven thirty am when I when I have about an hour layover, and I do like my, h my Detroit McNamara sprint, what other from the Detroit sports book? What other sports? What other sport would you do that for where you would divert a flight to make bets on Oh, I can't imagine it would be anything saying And it

comes down to what you said. This is Yeah, there's handicapping involved, but it's the it's information, Like the information for the most part is out there if you can weave through what the noises like and you said it as well, like I don't mind laying a price on minus four drew over five and a half wide receivers if I know six is the baseline and like the only time of the year, uh that I would I would do that. Well. Last year the offensive lineman sort

of the same situation. This is a very similar I guess I was two years ago. Oh, line was like five and a half and you kind of counted on your hands. You're like, oh my god, there's gonna be five guys gone by pick fifteen. Like the chances of one more guy going from D thirty two is high. Uh. This is the same kind of deal with the wide receivers this year. So here, here are the bets that I have made, and I will tell you how I in chronicle chronological order. These are the bets that I made.

First quarterback and drafted. I took a flyer on Derek Stingley at plus two eighty. This was several weeks ago. Based on what you're saying, Drew, we might have a shot at that quarterbacks drap un, I erupt your right right there, right basic, Like it's I don't look, I get that. And I think people kind of are confusing what they've seen from Stingley the last couple of years.

I compared to wanted to get this fresh, like the last two just licked the stand, like l s U was a dumpster fire as a program in the last few year. You cannot take anything to what happened the last couple of years on the field and him sitting out and basically saving himself. And maybe there was some off the field issues involved. I don't know, But forget about everything the last two years that you saw from Stingley. Oh was he hurt? Was he not hurt? What you

saw from him his freshman year. That's what you're gonna get in the NFL, Like question about that. And while I like Sauce Gardner, you have to remember I think a lot of people handicap on Oh he shucked down Jamison Williams in the in the cotton Ball, but the past was not part of Alabama's game plan in the cotton But they could have run to four yards in that game if they wanted to. Like, like, sure, he did a good job, but how many times did Alabama

Bryce Young Lu look deep to Jamison Williams. None, because like they knew they controlled the line of primage. It could just run for six seven yards and carry. So yeah, if you're if you like what you see you over the couple of years in Garden or fun. But but just basing it on that one game always shut down Jamison Williams in a game where Alabama wasn't even trying to throw the ball. That's dangerous. Whether your bit wins

or loses, there, that's a good beat. I appreciate you saying that because I got into it with the Bearcats fan Bearcats fan on Twitter, and that was like, oh yeah. He was like, you're crazy if you think sting Stingley, who never plays, is better than Gardener. He of course cited the Gardener never getting beaten by anybody. There's a lot of bona fides talent scouts who think Stingley is the best player in this draft. I said that this morning. I was like, if I'm an NFL GM, he's he

is the He's Champ Bailey, he's the guy. I don't mean that's the That's the thing with like a bunch of this stuff, like how how like in the same people, in the same way, people are going to be perplexed. How could a guy like walk Or go first overall? How could a guy like Stingley go above Gardner? Like it's exactly the same situation, Like these teams who are picking at the top are so devoid of talent, and they're all new, you know, they're all relatively you know,

recently turned over gms and coaches and all that. Like they're you know this, what's the safe pick doing for you? Nothing? Like you're going with the high upside like the in this draft in particular, Like you're going to be rewarded for the high upside guys, um much more than the safe picks. And guy like Hutchinson and got like Sauce, those are safe picks. They're gonna give you some contribution.

But um, you know these these new franchises with all of these holes that are playing, you know they have don't have quarterbacks, so they can't realistically expect to compete this year. Um, you know they're gonna they're gonna swing for the fences. Alright, we're rifle through these first quarterback drafted Derek Stingley plus two. Eight quarterbacks drafted in the

first round over three minus one. I figured three was a push at worse, at worst, there are some people that think only two will go in the first round. I got a good number on that. I don't think that's available. Over three minus one fifteen quarterbacks draft in the first round. Wide receive is drafted in the first round. I got over six plus one forty weeks ago. Wide receivers draft in the first round over six plus one forty. That number is nowhere close to what it was was then.

It's about minus one sixty on the over six. Now. Someone was asking me this morning and I still bet it. I couldn't tell him no, but just had to explain that I got a much better number here. There's a total number of safeties in the first round, I said under one and a half. At plus one eight, I think it's gonna come down obviously Daxton Uh is it Daxton Hill? Is that his last name? Dr? Hill? Jolly Petrie and Lewis And yeah, there's a two. There's a

two out there right now. Uh William Hill under two mins. So like there aren't gonna be like, you know, you're gonna get Hamiltons, but are you're gonna get too? I mean it feels kind of pushing it too, but you're not gonna get two of those three to land on three to beach, I wouldn't think so if you want to take a little chance there, I mean under two with the better number than one, and you can potentially do that. Yeah, I'm a little prepared to lose that one.

Here's and these are all draft positions. Draft position Derek Stingley under eleven and a half minus one ten. Can't get that anywhere anymore. These are all chronological. Yeah, what's going to position and number? Draft position A mod Gardner under seven and a half minus one thirty. We'll see draft position Ikey Kuana over three and a half. Based on what Drew is saying there, maybe a good bet at minus one thirty. Draft position. You like that one.

I like that. Draft position George Carl loftus over eighteen and a half. Here's a case of laying the juice minus one seventy. Uh also now find you can find a nineteen and a half now minus one sixtie as well. I like it. When I left draft position Garrett, George is out to twenty one and a half off shore,

So I like that. That's that's sailing and and juice to the over just a few more here, Draft position Garrett Wilson, as you talked about, Chris under ten and a half minus one sixty five, rap position Charles Cross which ends up being my biggest position under seven and a half plus one hundred. I did not get the best of the best number, but I'll take the plus one hundred draft position Cabon Thibodeau under four and a half, I laid minus one seventy five. I didn't get the

best number on that, but I'll take it. And then, uh, this weekend my last two I just made these playing position of first drafted player by Giants offense plus one hundred. I'm loving that. And then I did the Aiden Hutchinson Shenanigan at the end, which maybe might be my along with the safeties, might be if if if I'm what we're hearing, the Cabon Thibodeau goes number two. I'm still not buying it. But if that's the case, I'd be

screwed here. But I did the whole first overall draft pick Hutchinson minus second overall draft pick Hutchinson plus one five. That was just a bank roll building tandem. We'll see if I get torpedoed on that in the end. But I love that group of bets and and so you know, I'm pretty pumped right now. Things could change in the next couple of days. That's for sure, but from from what you said, it sounded like you had about four that are you can pretty much grade them winners right

now based on the way the market has moved. Um, I hope. But you're also your threat. You're threatened. There's a couple. You're threatened some needles, there's a couple. You're gonna be sweating. You're gonna have a good draft. Um. But yeah, I mean Thibodeaux. I like your Thibodeau under a lot. I think he goes to or four. Um,

I like your your Wilson under a lot. He's gotten massively steamed to be wide receiver one, which means he's gone eight or ten um, and then he better go away because I don't want to be sitting there now around the clock and Garrett Wilson's on the board. I don't I don't need that kind of kind of threat. So you know what you have going for you actually is that I don't think it's a secret that the Jets covered Wilson at the tent and that that's his

hard spot, and that look who's picking nine. It's Oh, it's the Seattle Seahawks, who are kind of the most um most willing trade team in history during the draft, and so anyone has eyes for Wilson, they're coming up to nine to get him before the Jets can pick him at ten, assuming he gets packed the falcon. So I think Wilson in that eight, nine, ten is very very solid UM, and then your safety pick is going to be a sweat. That one that was the worst

one of the bunch. I think. Here's what I'll tell you about safe the Lewis sen a under thirty four and a half because he is a very good fit for an enormous hole in the Lions organization, and they pick thirty two and thirty four. Um. If the Lions use thirty two on him, I won't be surprised if they don't. I would expect thirty four to be his backstop. UM, But there's other teams that I think have interested in him, so he may end up going even before the Lions

get a chance to swing UM. The thing I'll mention about Hamilton's because I have I have a bunch of Hamilton's over at a basically a single age. It's all the way through double digits, you know, all the way through ten and a half was where I stopped betting it. But um, he's in the free fall phase where he's gonna go so far down the board that teams are going to inevitably pass on him because they didn't do

their due diligence, do you know what I mean? Like teams in the twenties may have a crack at him, but ultimately pick whoever they have done more research and kind of detailed analysis on, just because they didn't think he was going to be available when they started their process. You know, the combine so speed, he can't cover like, he can't cover water receivers, and that's so that's a big part of the game. Now. Yeah, he he basically is being tagged by a lot of NFL talent evaluators

is strong safety at this point. And if you think using our first round pick on a strong safety as well, it's just it's just not it's there's just not enough of um you know, of a value for the position at that point. And also the um uh you know just in general, um, there's a lot of yeah, there's there.

It's not a premium position that you use a first round pick on even and and and the speed was a huge question mark and also teams need he needs a specific fit at least the way people envisioned his role,

and maybe all that's unfair. Maybe he's a great pro um, but if he falls past say the UH commanders at eleven um, there's gonna be a lot of teams either don't have a need or haven't done their due diligence on him, and he could slide all, you know, like you know, you know when Aaron Rodgers slid to overall

and people are like, how could this be possible? And it's like like a lot of teams thought he was gonna go number one or two or whatever, and so they didn't even really do their due diligence on him, you know. And I think you could get into a

similar sort of situation with Hamilton. Not that he's going to be as good as rnyon Rodgers, obviously, it's it's such a great other than that part of the analogy, I understand, you know, that's such a that's such a great point about position though, right say that, which is part of the reason why I made that one bet, the under one and a half. I like the price plus eight, but I was just like, exactly what you said, Drew, you don't use your first round pick on a safety

of Washington last year ended up picking Jamon Davis. I want to say they drafted nineteen or seventeen. I can't remember exactly where it was. Jamie Davis ended up being an outside linebacker. Like they used their first round pick on an outside linebacker. Like, you can't draft that way. There are certain positions you should not be coveting in the first round of an NFL draft, And so yeah, that's part of the safety reasoning. Anyway, we'll see. I

don't expect to win that. Like I said that. You know, the other question, guys is, obviously people want to know about quarterbacks. I have a bet over three. How many do you think go in the first round based on what you're hearing and who goes first, who goes second, who goes third? If you have any indication of that, I think it's going to be three. And I don't know the order. The funny because like, yeah, I think

it's gonna be three. I don't think you're going to see a quarterback go until late teens, early twenties, and then at that point, um, you know, it's just kind of I guess here's what I'll say. Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers were an open book about taking Naja Harris. Everyone and their mother had Naja Harris. You're gonna go thought mock draft. The first thing you did is put Harris Pittsburgh right. It was, it was. It was such a poorly kept secret, and this year for better, you know,

to their credit. I suppose they are clearly targeting quarterback. But if you ask ten people who are kills to connect to the organization, they'll give you three answers. I've heard the equal split of people saying, oh, no, no, I think they really love Willis. No, it's it's absolutely it's Pickett. Oh no, for sure, a solid connection to Ritter, you know. And it's like, okay, well, you know, if if it's that, they've done a good job of kind

of keeping it a secret exactly who they want. Well that was very smart because you know, you had a willing trade partner one spot ahead of them, you know, anyone if they were out there just beating their chest about we're gonna take Willis if he's available to us, then it's pretty obvious anyone else that wants him go one pick ahead of them, and you're good to go. Um so I think that was a smart strategy standpoint. I don't know who ultimately they take out of those people.

You're just making a guess at this point, um, But I think that surely the Steelers and then also the Titans um have done the most work and sincerely looking

at taking a quarterback in this year's draft. Um. And I think the Bills are an interesting positional spot where anyone who has eyes for a quarterback is calling the Bills to trade up ahead of the Titans, because if you like Ritter, if you like pick It, if you like Willis, whoever is available in that range, I think you want to pick ahead of the Titans, uh and get your guys. So if anyone's kind of in the late round trade up for a quarterback, I think the

Bills pick is probably the landing spot for that. And you've probably see three guys kind of going that, yeah, get guilt what Drew said, like it'll be I think

it will be three. And I have no idea on the order, because you have to just try and separate like what you see, and then how these teams draft, Like none of these guys really are first round guys, but you know, just based on how teams draft, they're gonna overreach on a quarterback and probably put their franchise in them in a bad situation for the next couple of years if they try, and like like seriously, like like like one of the one of the over unders

Kenny pick was over twelve and a half, Like, I don't think it Land has taken him at eight. I mean the Seahawks, who the hell knows what they're gonna do a nine based on their awful picks lightly, but they're gonna take you picking it nine like he's twelve and a half like, or is Washington going to take him at eleven? I don't think that will be another

bed like over twelve and a half. I think it's another is a pretty good I'm want something that I I would agree, And I also agree with the sentiment of you know, obviously you know this better than anyone, Chris, because you're more immersed in college football than all of us. But it's it's on the one hand, they're crazy to

draft these quarterbacks high. On the other hand, you totally get it right because you're nothing in this league without a quarterback, and at some point if you don't have one, you do go quarterback crazy and perhaps justifiably so, like you just want to take a shot, So I kind of get it. Um, well, here was my thing with the three betting the three. I feel like it's a little more likely there's four than there's two. Let's put it that way. That's why I made the bet that

I may. I fully expect to push that bet. The white outs, I fully expect to win the quarterbacks I expected. Yeah. Yeah, it's gonna be a sweat at the end of that first round, man, uh, because it's yeah, I mean, it's gonna take somebody trading back in. I think, um the same you know I have there there the teams to the twenties. Yeah, and kind of in a normal year, these are uncertain picks. In this year, it's even more

insane just because the top is so uncertain. They but yeah, I mean, presumably you get you you trade into the bottom of the first round, four quarterback if you want to develop that prospect, because if you hit, then you have a fifth year option of cost control, and that's huge if you're building a team. Um, and so there's always incentive four teams to do that. And if one of these guys pick it, Willis or Ritter or even

Sam how or even Matt Karal for that matter. If somebody has eyes for one of those guys, um, it makes way more sense to take him, you know, one, than it does thirty three just because of that flexibility you get. UM And so yeah, Cincinnati Bengals have the thirty first pick right now. They look like an obvious well, you know, would be willing to listen to um, you know, teams willing to trade up and get get an extra pick, uh to move back into the second round if someone

wants the quarterback there. Um. The problem is really like it's been very, very tough to connect the dots between any specific quarterbacks and teams this year just because the process has been so or at least the reaction from the teams has been so underwhelming to these guys. From a talent standpoint, Chris said, is his favorite ones that he has or what he thinks he knows the most of Garrett Wilson under ten and a half and the

Charles Cross under seven and a half. Is there a bet that you have drew right now that you like better than the rest? Or are you keeping it pretty nitty to use the poker term until day or day before. Well, I mean it's tough, Like you said, the liquidity is so shallow this year. First of all, like you know, there's a couple offshore spots who are usually very very who are very willing to take a bet, and you can get like twenty five dollars on like some over

unders right now. It's truly like they literally are telling you go bet this somewhere else. We don't want your action. Um. The only place that's taking any meaningful bets, the folks over at Bookmaker are doing a decent amount of they'll they'll write you to win three k with rebets on the first you know, on some of the select markets that are high profile. Um, so there are a shot right all the over unders. Yeah, but if yeah first overall, second overall, third overall, you can get two in three

k with rebets, which is nice. Um. The so there's there's just there's everything that I have bet it seemed like bananas. So it's not really worth kind of being like you know, hey, this this was good at this number that you're never going to see again. Um but I think fundamentally, uh, the the the ikey, I think, ikey, you can still get Yeah, he's over four and a half for him minus one twenty very very solid. I don't think an offensive player. UM. Similarly, Evan Neil over

five and a half, I think it's pretty solid. I think unless you know, the Giants could take him at five, but I think it's much more likely that you know that they either go with their guy across before the Panthers can take Cross, or or they take a cornerback and gardner at five. Um and then um. You know. Similarly, the Stingley under is still dable at nine and a half even though it's juicy. Um, I think he goes

in the top five uh and then um uh. In general, I think that pulls some that that has some gravity on guys like McDuffie, even though he may not be worthy of kind of steaming upp aboard right now. If two cornerbacks go in the top five, he's gonna go before pick seventeen. Um and uh. You know, so there there is sort of a compounding or fly effect of

that stuff. And in the same sense that since the wide receivers, like if there's a run eight, nine, ten or all wide receivers, um, then Olavy goes way before he's expected to go. Um and Burkes goes way before he's expected to go. So those unders look pretty pretty realistic as well. And honestly, if you're betting at some of the legal shops, they'll let you parlay these in a way that you can capture that, uh, that there will be a run. Who's letting you par right now?

Draft Kings? Are they letting you parley Draft Kings and vandeluv So you can get like you can get We looked at this last week, but you can as we speak, you can get miss that connection. You could do you could do the under under under on Sauce Gardner Stingley and then whoever you think CB three is going to be, because if those two guys go earlier than expected, then some other team taking a court, you know, taking the best cornerback available when they get their chance to in

the early teams I think is pretty likely. So um yeah, there's a lot of correlation when there are certain runs. A positions and wide receiver and cornerback are the two that I think are most likely to have runs to the good. Uh, tackle is the one that I think most likely to have a run to the bad. I think tackles are already sliding. We have seen a lot of mock drafts in the you know, early in April, where you had two tackles in your top five, three or four in the top ten. And I think that's

not happening. I think you're gonna see two tackles in your top ten, one of um, Ikey or Cross. I mean it's one of Ikey, Cross or Neil. One of those guys is going to slide slide, uh and be surprisingly available in like the twelve range or the thirteen range. Like Texans could take Stingley third overall and get their cornerback that they so cover it and then still have a shot at guy like Ikey or Neil at thirteam potentially, like it could very realistically happen. Um. And so it

was you know that that that is on the table. UM. I think at towards the bob him of the draft, I've heard real deal information that Quay Walker the linebacker out of his first round guy. Yeah, there's been some some serious smoke there. He's still forty and a half at some spots I would play him to the under forty and a half. Um, I've seen some real deal smoke on Louis scene. Like I mentioned under thirty four, makes a ton of sense for him. Those two are

still widely available, bets I believe. Um, I wouldn't mind Walker first linebacker again, kind of swinging for the fences here you can find some first linebacker props. Walker isn't like the eight to one range. That's not bad. Um. You know that there's questions the other guys ahead of

him in that one. Um, Yeah, yeah, Lloyd and uh the other guy both injury concerns Dean Small Um, Yeah, I get it wouldn't be blown I wouldn't be blown away if there's only one linebacker in the first round this year and it's Quay Walker, so taking him the

first linebackers fun one. It's funny you guys were talking about like pen penciling and certain players right like, can I just like bet the new Patriots selected Kobe Deane with their like like that is a tough like, don't bel chick knowing what Patriots did right there, Well, that's definitely a price for that. There's definitely for that draft Kings you can bet yes nos on them? Will they be in the first round? They'd be a top thirty two pick. The Parlay thing is just, man, my head

is exploding. I would go nuts with those if I was in a jurisdiction that had those guys. Unfortunately we had a we gotta run so because we have a heart out here. But I just sort of throw it out to you. Any final thoughts that haven't been mentioned, Chris, anything that people should keep an eye out on eye

out four. The only the only other thing that I that I had heard from someone who's who follows the Browns and is styled into the brown is pretty pretty pretty good is he's apparently certain that they're going to take a wide receiver with with their first pick, which

obviously doesn't come until early second round. Of me. They did bring him already Cooper, but you lose Landry and lose Higgins, and you have DeShawn Watson, you would think that they're going to add another weapon to give him as many weapons as possible, So you could probably have your pick where they're picking. If someone like Christian Watson or match she saw that you can get Browns to select a wide receiver right around plus two fifty years.

So that's the only other thing that but I had jotted down, and I wanted to get out there like it Metchi and pickets like the forgotten wide receivers. You know, yeah, I like that a lot. You know, dig dig dig

dig dig. If you're betting in a legal jurisdiction, the offerings that DraftKings and vandel and points bet are far superior to what you can find offshore or that I've seen in hanging legal you know, in in locally in Las Vegas at least um and you can find fun, more fun ways to play some of this stuff, like, um, if you feel like Cross goes fit to the Giants, which I think we all think is a very realistic possibility, he's the first offensive player at plus seven fifty, right Like,

you can find fun, interesting ways to play those surprising because because like right now, the top of the first offensive player drafted market is Ikey and then Evan Neil and then Malik Willis I mean Cross equally likely to go first, you know, first offensive lineman drafted, And if you look at the offensive line to market, crosses what is he's probably still also in that range where he's he's plus he's six hundred in the first offensive lineman market,

but plus seven fifty for first offensive player. Like, it's pretty obvious at least to me that if he goes first offensive lineman, he's the first offensive player as well. So you know, if shop you shop around, and just in general, if you shop around. We didn't even mention this, but this should be mentioned on every draft podcast every year. Um, you're gonna get wildly different prices across different books. So get as many outs as you can, shop around and

and find your best price. You're gonna need more than an hour in Detroit. Chris Man plus seven fifties some of these man. Alright, guys, I appreciate it, Thanks so much much. Good luck with all of our bets. I'll speak, I'll throw myself in there. Good luck to all of us. Chris Felika, Drew Den stick at Chris Felika on Twitter, at Whale Underscore Capper for Drew on Twitter. Thank you guys,

really appreciate it, of course, Hey, best luck. Enjoyed the draft the best betting vehicle of the entire calendar year skill Alexander, Thanks for listening. Good luck with all your draft bets. On Thursday,