Beating the Book: The 2021 NFL Draft Betting Special

have an all star cast talk about the draft. First of all, my partner on Primetime Action, which we do Monday through Friday night, sometimes on MSG plus, sometimes not. It's Matt Brown. How you doing, Matt doing well? Doing well? Football season MSG plus. Outside of that, that's how we that's how we should start saying it right, And that's

how exactly what she starts stating. And then with the with the Circle backdrop, the nighttime dusk circule backdrops from the Deep Dive podcast is Drew Dinsy, how are you doing man? I'm doing well. Man. We're a week out from the draft. This time of years, super fun, love all of the looking into the crystal ball of who's going to do what in the draft. This is this is, this is what it's all about. Dude, I cannot wait.

We are exactly one week away from the NFL Draft, and we'll go through everybody's favorite picks here, favorite props that they've already bet obviously on this show, I saved the best for last. I was gonna introduce him first, but he he went off camera for a second, so I didn't wanted to make sure he had time to get in to see uh. He is the host Lombardi Line at Vison. He has a podcast of his own

with Adne Invert called GM Shuffle. The name of the book is Gridiron Genius writes for the Athletic he has worked with all the greats, not all the greats again, no Joe Gibbs, but Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick, Al Davis. It's Michael Lombardi. Thank you for doing this. Michael, appreciate it, No no problem. It's nice to be here. Thank you. It's good to be here. Michael. Let me start with you, um before we get into all of

our props. Let me start with um the top of the draft, because in many respects, this is I think the most confusing, maybe not confusing, but the draft that I probably know the least about one through six a week out in recent memory. Um, if you if you are okay with Trevor, not okay with but if you believe Trevor Lawrence is absolutely going number one. By the way, the surest thing in this draft is Trevor Lawrence tweeting out that he's already donating to Jacksonville charity. So he

is going number one. If you believe Zack Wilson is going number two. Though, to the Jets, where are week out? Do you stand? And you've been very consistent about this on three, Let's start there, you know, I think I think let's start with this idea for the better. If you want to play props and you want to use mock drafts as kind of a guideline for your prop betting, I think you have to be strategic in looking at

each mock. For example, if you want to know what the Rams are going to do in the draft or perhaps San Francisco, read Peter Schrager's mock because he's pretty wired in those organizations. If you want to know what the Jets are gonna do or what Baltimore is going to do, then make sure you read Daniel Jeremiah's mom If you want to know what some other teams do. You read Charlie Cassually's mo These are the mocks you read because they'll give you a peek into what the

teams are really thinking. They aren't going to be They're not going to be perfect on all the draft. So let's like Peter Peter Schrager's draft mock draft. He just released it, uh April right. He has exactly the way I see it. He has Mac Jones coming to three, which is what I think is going to happen. I think it's a debate in that organization between Tray Lance and Mac Jones. I think the head coach really likes mac Jones. He likes his intelligence, he likes his ability

to control the game with the lie of scrimmage. He sees a combination of Matt Ryan, Matt Shob, Kirk Cousins, all those players wrapped into Mac Jones. The people on the outside of the building don't see that, and some in the inside of the building I'll see that they favored Trey Lance. So I think, you know, if I were a betting man, I would bet Matt Jones at three. I would hedge my bet with something on Trey Lancer as well. Interesting that Justin Fields was not in that

conversation for you. By the way, Peter Schreeger has Travis Etien going to Washington at nineteen, So do not look at Peter Schreeger's draft for Washington specific payers. Let me just say that, Yeah, I mean, look that That's why I think you have to be really careful. Do you have to pick certain teams that you know guys are really wired on? Right? You know, go through Peter Schreeger's

Twitter feed. What stories does he break that that are true based on like like for me, like people like they if I say something about the Patriots, people tend to believe it because they know I talked to the head coach. So you know, Carolina, my some works there page, you know, but not all drafts, not all mocks are perfect. But when you when you have a guy like Charlie Castoley who does a good job of collecting information, you gotta look at all his information on where he has

guys going. You can utilize that draft that mock as well drew number three. You see it a little differently, or at least read the tea leaves differently anyway. Yeah, And I mean you know, it's it's really funny how there's sort of an asymmetry about the coverage of the draft and where actual value betting lies, because if you actually think that there's a value play to be made on three, you're probably you're probably deluding yourself. I would say that there are lots of value draft, you know,

value propositions down the board at this point. Uh. And you know, I personally, while I completely agree with you know, Mike's take overall that there you have to do a blended approach where you kind of evaluate the quality of information across all the marks depending on who's connected to who. I would still point to San Francisco and say they would be at the top of the board for me of a team that has mastered sort of the the psy ops, the disinformation campaign and the obscuring you know

what they ultimately end intend to do. And I think this is probably the most important pick that's going to

happen under the Lynch Shanahan regime. Uh. And the idea that they even would have told somebody is that they are especially close to like Pete Schreegor, what their true intention is I think is I I have suspicion about that um and you know, as I look, you know that there's a reason that Zack Wilson is like minus five thousand to go to the Jets, but Mac Jones is like minus one fifty to go to the Niners. You know that the Jets are not trying to hide information.

They're being very out in the open with it, and they leak all of the time. You know, it's relatively well known when we get to the draft cycle who the Jets like. But I would point to the Niners even last year and Peter Schreeger's mock he had them taking uh, you know, one of the he had them taking I think Rugs at thirteen. Overall last year, the consensus mocks across the boards where they loved Rugs, they

loved Judy, they loved Lamb. They were going to get one of those three guys and picked their team got to them. Uh, Lamb and Judy were available, and rather than make those picks, they traded down and took kin Law to replace DeForrest Buckner. And it was like you couldn't find a single mock in this in the space

that linked them to kind Law. And it was like, okay, Uh, they did a very good job of sort of deceiving the fact that they really didn't have eyes for any of those three guys when they with their first pick. Uh And in their second pick they did use on a wide receiver and it was somebody that nobody saw

coming in Brandon Ayouk. So I would I would say that Shanahan is one of the guys that I would put the least amount of confidence in anyone saying that they've heard with any kind of credibility that they know what he would do. Um. I've been into fields at three pretty heavily. At this point, I'm prepared to take

it as a loss. I've been prepared to take as a loss since doing it in the first place, because I've just been like, I have a tough time swallowing how a team gives up so much future capital to move up and take mac Jones when the likelihood he was going to be there much lower in the draft is you know, it just it didn't make sense mathematically, It didn't make sense in terms of the value of that picked for me, that that would be mac Jones.

UM and similarly, trade lance, you know, if you're if you're leveraging all of this future capital and this goes beyond just pick three with the Niners. But if you're leveraging so much of your future capital for a player that started one year of FCS football, like you've started the clock on your the end of your tenure. Right if that pick doesn't work out, and there's maybe a chance that it doesn't, you know, like, that's that's it, that's the end. You know, you've passed on guylike Fields,

who is you know who I think has a higher floor. Um. You know, you may have you may have captured the next you know, the next great quarterback in in lance. But if it doesn't work out, you know, that's it for you. And I have a tough time, you know, seeing that people would you know, leverage that much future capital for unknown quantities like this Um and then you know,

just you know, lastly, the Um. The fit between Fields in San Francisco, in my opinion is is so strong UH and the connection to the through the quarterback collect div between Shanahan Uh and UH and Fields going back to high school and that that he's a known quantity for them. On top of the fact that he was an iron man in the semifinal game in college in the college football semifinal game played through broken ribs. And here's Shanahan, he's dealt with you know, r G three,

who was a generational talent, his legs going year one. Uh, you know, he can't stay on the field. He he gets Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo looks amazing down the stretch that first season they trade for him. He can't stay on the field. He's made a glass, you know. So the idea that Shanahan's kind of I would air on the side of a guy that is an iron man that's going to take the field even

with broken ribs, I think is real. And uh, you know, the only reason I could think that they would run this sort of misinformation campaign, uh, you know, the psy ops on on you know, the football media landscape would just be to keep the Jets locked in on Wilson at too, because I have, I personally think the Fields Wilson, the space between those two players in their their potential in the NFL is very thin. Uh And Zack Wilson, in my mind, is a higher candidate from being an

NFL bust than Fields is. But um, you know that that's that's kind of where I've landed. But with all that said, it's the most fun topic to talk about in the draft prop space, But there are lots of better options for finding betting value for sure. By the way I would say this, I would say this, s Gill, I'd like to rebut that I would say this, if if you really understand Kyle Shanahan and you understand what

he's looking for, you can't think it's justin fields. If you understand, if you've had conversations with Kyle Shanahan about what he wants in his offense, about the mechanics of throwing the football, about understanding what's going to happen at the line of scrimmage, then it's going to either be mac Jones or Trey Lance. And I heard all of what you said, And if you talk to people that have coached with him, if you heard him discuss the

values of what he sees in the throwing motion. I mean, there's a lot of teams in the National Football League that have a real concern about justin fields is throwing motion. And there is a huge disconnect between most people in the league on where they see justin fields you happen to see them much higher. But I think it's a little bit like valuing art unless you really understand what the coach is looking for. And I didn't base my pick on mac Jones being there at three based on

Peter Schrager. I've based it on what people have told me that had been in the league. And I haven't been with Kyle Shanahan. And if you were to ask anybody who has been with Kyle in the room who we would pick of them, would say mac Jones is the guy. Yeah, I will tell you, Matt, you and I on Primetime Action the night of the Niners trading up to three for that hall. And by the way, what Drew was saying is correct. I mean these the line on number three keep slip flopping day after day

from mac Jones to Justin Fields. At this point in terms of who's the favorite, so many more things more bettable at this point. But Matt, you and I our first reaction was they're drafting anybody but mac Jones. But that was more of an assessment. Doesn't mean we don't like mac Jones. That was more of an assessment of what we believe to be the game of the draft and where you could have otherwise gotten Matt Jones. Is that fair? And yeah, And I mean listen, I'm I'm

I very well could be wrong. I think it's Justin Fields as well. I very well could be wrong. It could be mac Jones. If it is mac Jones, then I think one thing will be for certain. They overpaid for it because they definitely didn't have to go to three to get mac Jones. And so I definitely think at the end of this, if there is no if it isn't Justin Fields and it's mac Jones, then they likely overpaid for it. But I mean, you know, look, we look at it Justin Fields here and this is

a guy him and Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is a guy that no one's ever wavered on. He has been the guy that everyone says is going to be the next guy in the next generational talent. Uh. Justin Fields was ranked ahead of Trevor Larrence and one of the scouting services coming out of high school. Trevor Larrence was right to have Justin Fields and the other they come out. Everybody is talking about how good these guys are in college.

If if if Justin Fields had not played this season like a Jumar Chase didn't, then we would be arguing right now who the number one overall pick in the draft would be. Should it be Justin Fields or should it be Trevor Long? That would that was what we would be arguing right now. No, we wouldn't know. We wouldn't, He wouldn't. They were literally mentioned in the same sentence every single every single for two years. But the people that are mentioning it don't know what they're talking about.

It's like you can't use a foul a false narrative to support a narrative like you're asking people. It's like saying, well, this guy is the best player coming out of high school running back, so we should talk about him. It's about their career, what they do on the field. Like that doesn't that doesn't value it. That's not how people in the National Football League build a draft board based on the conversation Justin Fields has always been. Have you

talked to anybody at Georgia about Justin Fields? Why he transferred? What happened? Do you understand how Jake from beat him out? I mean, I don't understand it, but do you I don't understand how that happened, but it did. But my point here is simply this, Look, I'm not going to debate over over and because you know it could if it's Justin Fields, that I'm completely wrong. But I think the reality of it is, is anybody who thinks that we would have a conversation between Justin Fields and Trevor

Lawrence this summer. We're not watching the same tape. We're not watching the same tape, We're not watching the same game of football. That was never going to be the case. That was never going to be the case. And and so for me, it's like, look, he played the senior year, you watched him, he did his thing, and you go on. I just here's what I don't understand. Matt Jones did more in Alabama and I'm not. And if I were picking at three, I would take sul the tackle. So

let me get that out of the way. I'm not in love with any of the quarterbacks. I want to make this perfectly clear. I'm not defending Mac Jones here, but I think there's a real bias going on here that you know Matt Jones. Every Alabama player will openly tell you, without even asking, without even asking the question, who's a better player to or mac Jones. Absolutely absolutely mac Jones, not even close. They changed the offense from mac Jones. They throw the ball downfield more for mac Jones.

They did more things to fit his game that was more conducive to the pro game than anything. And now I know we're not allowed to say a bad word about too, but you didn't think Tool was a bad picke at the fourth pick in the draft last year, But yet you think the third pick is too rich. When Kyle Shanahan, I'm told, thought that there's going to be teams that trade up into the top five, namely New England, namely Carolina, maybe Denver to get mac Jones,

and he wanted to beat them to the punch. Now that could be all wrong, but that's the conversation I will. I will go ahead and let this be known for the rest of the podcast. I've talked to no head coaches, I've talked to no player personnel people. I had no one in any any NFL offices. So all of this definitely comes from opinion and things that I've that I've gotten along the way. I think there's a fundamental disagreement

as to how good Justin Fields was in college. There is a lot of high, high level grading systems out there, and again I understand they're not in the NFL offices, but Pro Football Focus is pretty highly regarded. He had a ninety two point four passing grade through them, deadly accurate all of the everything that they're saying, have you ever seen have you ever seen the corners that Pro Football Focus grades and where they end up grafted and

how they play? Like I'm just telling you that this phenomenon about Pro Football Focus, if they were so right on quarterbacks, then why is all of them getting more on all of the picks blown? Like do you even know who does the quarterbacks for Pro Football Focus? Like who grades them? Like I like, I just don't understand, Like I mean, I don't be I want to be argumented about a podcast, but I'm just not going to, you know, Like I'm I don't understand how people can

kill Mac Jones. And then in the same sentence, I don't think to talk about two of them. I don't think he's the greatest quarterback, but no people, but I think nobody complains about two might end up being a better quarterback ultimately than might be. But but realistically the but I I just have a tough time having seen only film talk to no one that not not ranking them sort of in the consensus ranking, which was Lawrence Wilson, Fields,

Lance Jones, and Jones at five. To me, I completely concede that what he did it last year in Alabama was awesome. But it was legitimately one of the best offensive systems that we've ever seen in college football ever. He had one of the most competent offensive lines of that you could you could ask for his weapons. He was thrown to were you know, future all pro NFL players like it was the perfect storm. He didn't have to do much. He was in a very comfortable situation.

And to me, I don't know that he has an NFL body personally. I think he needs to put on a ton of way to stay healthy. I think if you put him behind the San Francisco offensive line and he takes shots from NFL players, I'm worried. I'm very much worried about that. Sorry, I guess I got an emergency dealer. UM I'm worried about him picking up injury in the same breath that I was worried about Joe Burrow last year going to Cincinnati. UM, whereas with Fields

at least the durability questions not there for me. UM and I, you know, the throwing motion is a very interesting wrinkle that I haven't heard anyone bring up before. And if you know, Shanahan obviously absolute offensive guru. Situation and where you land as a quarterback matters almost as much as talent in my opinion, in terms of if you are going to ultimately be a top ten quarterback in this league, and any quarterback lands in Shanahan's system, you are already at the head of the curve of

finding success. I think there's no no doubt about that. UM, but I do if the Fields ends up in a decent situation as well. UH and Jones has a pretty clear stealing in the same way Jared Goff did with the Rams. I could see this ultimately being a very stressful situation for Shanahan and Lynch long term with the San Francist organization, considering what they gave up to move up to the spot. It's it's gonna be fascinating. We're

gonna give people some Betsy. I don't want to go down this rabbit hole anymore because we could do an hour on this UM but I will just say I think the mac Jones, you know, being surrounded by players is valid. I think justin fields, being being surrounded by nothing but the best players in the country argument is valid too. We don't have a plethora of Alabama and Ohio state quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL. That could change

with these two guys. But by the way, I will tell you that Trevor Lawrence, and I know this will make your head explode, perhaps, Michael, but the last two you know, biggest stages, and the one in the National finals, one in the National semifinals. I walked away from those Trevor Lawrence games and I was like, I don't know, you know, And he was surrounded by great players too, So you know, I may live to eat those words

for sure. Maybe there's certain things I don't understand about Trevor Lawrence, but I'm not a hundred percent by the way Zack Wilson, we don't. There's a lot of questions about Zach Wilson, right, So your point is right that the questions about all of them, um. But as far as the draft is concerned, I guess one week from tonight we'll find out who in fact, the Niners do pick at and then what happens after that? Four through six? I mean that's an even bigger question. Will Atlanta trade out?

Will they stay in draft Kyle Pitts? Will they stay in draft Seul? Uh? If Atlanta trades out, you would assume it's for a fourth quarterback. Then what happens at five? Will the Bengals take Seul to protect Joe Burrow? Will they take Jamar Chase? If if Joe Burrows in their ear about his former team, edit l s U. At six, you have to figure Jamaar Chase can't go past six. So let me just ask it this way, And I've asked this of all of you in some different form

on radio this week. What do you think we do know? Give me the one draft prop out there and and Jamaar Chase going under six and a half triggers that for me, because I think we do know that. Assuming Miami stays where they are, they are fielding phone calls as well. Is that the play you like the most, Michael will start with you? Or is there another one? Is it about offensive players? What do you think you know for sure? I think Kyle Pitts going below five and a half is the one I do know now.

I say that with Atlanta not trading that pick, which I don't think they'll do, but I think Kyle Pitts in Atlanta are it makes the most sense to me. I think Cincinnati at five, I think it's Suel, but I wouldn't say it's a lock. So I don't like Suel under six and a half as a lock is something that I know. It makes too much sense not

to pick Seul at six. At five at six, I agree with you on Chase, but you know, I've seen these drafts where everybody talks offensive line wide receiver, then offensive linemen get there, so pits, if the Seul is there at six, how do they not take them? So? For me, I mean those are the really the ones that I feel the most comfortable with. Uh as it relates to some of the props. I think justin fields for me after four three and a half or above is for me a really good pick. I don't know

where I put Trey Lance in that. Matt, same question. I think that my favorite one that I have in pocket right now is just total wide receivers over four and a half. I mean, again, we we understand, each mock draft is is a person's opinion, and each mock draft has certain people with different different types of information.

But if we do kind of go and we look at at these wide receivers in these mock drafts, like you know, Steve Plazio's has six at his Sam Monson has seven, Kuiper has six, mcshaye has six, Brugler has five, Ryan Wilson from CBS has five. Sharp Football has six. So like there isn't any sort of respected mock draft out there that has only four wide receivers going in

the first round. Now, it's not a bet for every bank roll because you do have to lay about I think at this point it's gotten up to like two fifty or two sixty. I got it fortunately a little bit earlier. I think I got it at to twenty. But um, you know, again, if you do have that type of bankroll, Um, what we do know for sure? I mean, I thought, I think anyone's arguing that that Chase Smith, Waddle and and more seemed to be the

consensus guys that are definitely going to the first. We see a lot with Bateman going in the first, and the most of them have Bateman and more going in the first Harris Marshall moving into a lot of the first rounds as well, and then even you know, again the same Monson Profole focus has seven he has he has Rondel Moore from Purdue going in the first. So I mean there's there's at least a good number of guys there that we could make sense for all of them going in the first round. And so I really

do like the over four and a half a lot. Yeah, I grabbed that one. I had minus two fifty, So I was willing to lay a lot of these. By the way, I've laid ridiculous. You and I think have Chase under six and a half later or was it first wide receiver drafted? I laid um minus there it his first wide receiver to be drafted minus five fifty. I have no problem. I just got an under one and a half on tight ends. Kyle Pittson proved me wrong. I just laid minus three. And so that's the other

thing about these drafts. You would lay prices in a way that you never I don't know about never, but most likely not be willing to lay in actual you know, sporting events drew you have the same answer, did you not with the wide receivers it was something else offensive players? I believe, Yeah, I mean it's all the same bet effectively. Um, you're you know, the macro trend in the NFL is pretty clear. We're running more three wide receiver sets. That

means two things. You need. You need wide receiver bodies to you know, to absorb those targets, and you need a better offensive line because you're putting more stress on them by not giving them as much tight end help. Like that's the macro trend that you're seeing across most offenses and that are being run in the NFL right now. Uh. And on top of that, you have a bumper crop of tackles and wide receivers in this year's draft. Um. And so the likelihood that we see you know, six

to seven offensive linemen is high. The likelihood that we see um, you know, five to six wide receivers, it's high. Uh. And then I think you know, almost without with with almost certainty, you're gonna see five quarterbacks in one tight end. So right there, you know you're your with eighteen and eighteen nineteen offensive players. Um. And then one surprise of you know, one running back. Potentially two running backs have been you know, commonly mocked lately. Um, you know that

would put you over the top. So offensive players over I think is still quite solid, although we've seen a ton of movement in that in the last forty eight hours. So it's getting too close to the place where I think, you know, they've they've about settled on fair price. Um. The the rest of the top ten and the interesting things to talk about and the high confidence picks just

aren't really there this year. UM. I agree with Mike that Kyle pits as an underplay makes a ton of sense because I do think Atlanta is going to be stuck at four and best player available at that point in time would g Kyle Pits. Um. And then, uh,

you know, the Bengals. I think Sewell versus Chase is pretty much a coin flip at this point, um, depending on which day you happen to be cruising, uh, you know, the draft information space, the Bengals have either decided one or the other, and depending on which source, UM, I can make a case that the Bengals, having invested a lot of first round draft capital over the last handful of years in offensive line with relatively little return, and

then Mike Brown going out and signing Riley Reef, albeit not a great player, but giving him money, um to

come in and play tackle. Uh is probably enough of a uh you know, enough of us sway that if I'm the Dolphins and I covet Jamaar Chase, I'm sweating them picking that naking that fifth pick, because I would maybe make it Chase sel at the at just at this moment, and uh, you know, it's it's possible that the Dolphins moved up back into that six spot with no recognizing that between Pits, Seul and Chase, you have three future All pros, and one of those guys is

going to follow to us. We don't really care who, um, but just kind of the way that roster is constructed, I think they'd need more offensive weapons. And if they end up with Sewel instead of Pits and Chase, I think they may have a little bit of regret for what they gave up to go from to the six. Uh. Is Patrick Sartan to Dallas at ten? The player and the team you've seen the most matched in mocks met Yeah, um, you know this one. Actually, there there's a site you

can go to that aggregates all these things. And basically he has been from the beginning of March until yesterday, he had been mocked to the Cowboys of the mock drafts out there. Um, and they're the ones that weren't it was Caleb Farley, So I mean it basically we're it's basically a corner for the Cowboys. And basically every single one of these mocks that are getting put out there, it was either certain Or or Caleb Farley and just

about every one of them. I mean they were twenty one a gainst the past tv O a twenty seven coverage grade. So I mean it makes perfect sense. Here they went and they did offense last year. You come back first round this year and get a corner in there, and being a passing league as as as Drew mentioned, I mean being a passing league either pass rushers or guys that can cover and so, um, it makes a lot of sense for him. I think the under ten and a half which is still available out there, is

pretty viable for him. I think him being the first defensive player taken is pretty viable as well. Um that I think that whenever you kind of look at how again, there's likely to be a trade that we're not thinking about that's gonna happen somewhere along the way before it gets to the Cowboys. But you know, as we sit right now, at least if you kind of go through and you peg these things down, it looks like he's gonna he could be the first defensive player taken as well. Michael,

let me ask it this way, what's the team? And you know these guys as well as anybody, what's what's the team that you always go into these drafts and you're like, this is the team most likely to do something stupid? Uh? You know, I mean I think you know the Bengals don't take the offensive tackle that qualifies the stupidity. I mean, you know, they just watched the Super Bowl, you know. I know Jamaar Chase is a great,

nice player, and I think he'd be on. But soon you're talking about a Pro Bowl left tackle for twelve years. You know, like, seriously, you're you're not gonna take that and your quarterback? I mean, you know, like there's no way that doesn't make sense. So and then I think lately the way the Giants have behaved, I don't think they behave in a manner that's typical to what they do. They've been all over the place. I mean, just take

this for example. I mean, they go ahead and pay a ton of money to sign a Dory Jackson, who I like coming out in the draft. But had they traded a seventh round pick to Tennessee who was offering a Dorry Jackson for a seventh if if if right, they were ready to give them to you, they would have saved fourteen million dollars if they make that trade. So they just told you the seventh is more valuable

than fourteen million. Tell me how that makes sense, because they would have taken they would have taken the contract of a Dorry Jackson which owed him ten million, as opposed to give him twenty four million. What should they drafted eleven white out? Oh no, they know they just signed Golladay and paid him twenty million dollars. I mean you draft another ride out. I mean, how much you've got to have at the position. They still have Stir Shepherd,

they still have a Slayton plan for them. I'm not saying they're great that they have no right side of their offensive line. Look at their offensive line, you know, they signed the kid from Houston, uh last year. I mean who played for Houston last year who wasn't very good? Fulton, Zach Fulton. You know they don't have a right tackle. They have a kid who was a college free agent at right tackle. They can't function as an offense without it.

You know, they're really in trouble there. Let me go through some of the Let me go through all of the of the draft bets that I have made so far. Um, I don't know if we can show these on the screen, but justin fields, I have at the second overall pick and at the third overall pick, second overall pick eight

to one third overall at plus one forty. I didn't get the best number on third, but yes, I I played him at second too, because I'm not one thousand percent convinced that Zack Wilson is going to the Jets. Then some of the ones we've talked about over seventeen and a half offensive players drafted minus one seventy over four and a half, wide outs drafted minus to fifty. These are all bets that I already have in pocket. Jamaar Chase first white out to be drafted minus five five.

Do you mentioned that earlier, willing to lay the uh the hammer on that one. Then I have Chase under six, Chase under six and a half at various prices minus two fifty and minus two forty, respectively. Terence Marshall h Terris Marshall rather, who would be the second L s U player in the second L s U wide out

to go in the first half? I didn't in first round. Rather, I didn't get him at the best number here at circle was eighty minutes late to the desk here at nine am on Saturday, only got here at ten twenty. But he was the one player where the line I still betted after the line moved a little bit, so I went Terrice Marshall under thirty and a half, figuring in the Ravens at twenty seven were really the fulcrum

for him. Pits under five and a half a couple of times, Seoul over five and a half because I do think the Bengals will mess around and not pick him. And then mac Jones under nine and a half, just because I liked that line that they said at nine and a half. There's two others I made more recently under one and a half on tight ends I laid minus three eighty at the south Point and just now beforehand,

and Michael, I'll ask you about this. I just met the Chargers at thirteen or wherever they make their first pick. Currently slidded at thirteen to draft an offensive lineman. First, I only laid minus one twenty. I haven't seen a mock out there that doesn't have him drafting an offensive lineman. How do you feel about the Chargers, Well, I think the Charges are definitely drafting an offensive lineman. I don't know why you won't give up on the On the Jets,

they're definitely taken Wilson. I mean that's been in the cards once he passed their physical, Once they felt comfortable, that's when they traded Donald. The other thing, I think you're going to get bit on his Terrence Marshall. He he had a truck time with his physical. He has slid down the board. I would say right now he's probably the eighth receiver on the board based on medical. Yeah. I made the Justin Fields pick a while back, so

I probably to your point, wouldn't have made that today. Um. Obviously I've turned Marshal the wide receiver the Justin Fields second pick In other words, I wouldn't have made today partner Tara's Marshall under thirty and a half. That was the one in one exception I made in terms of movement. But you're you're point is noted, Drew. What else have you bet? Um? I got ahead of the Farley steam on the over his medicals are concerned. I think he's

going to slide into the twenties. Um some and the flip flip side of that is um uh J C Horn uh is I. I have a tough time seeing him go past their team, honestly, Um, and realistically the you know you brought up Patrick Curtan to the Cowboys earlier. I get it that's a great fit. Um. I get it that the mock drafters look at need for the Cowboys and just slot him there because they evaluate Certain as the best option at cornerback. So obviously I'll go first.

But I actually haven't really seen any true connection that Cowboys are all on, all in on Certain. I could see them look for a Horn. I think there are a lot of minds in the NFL that see Horn is a better long term prospect at cornerback than n

ser tam Um. Similarly, the Eagles need a cornerback, they could take Horn at twelve uh and then um, you know that I could see I've heard rumors that both the Chargers UH and the and the Arizona Cardinals are very high on Horn as well, and I've been making calls recently to try to trade into the range where he would be available. UM. So I think the Horn market is getting hot and he will go earlier than

people are mocking currently. Uh. Similarly, Rashawn Slater, the second offensive lineman off the board, I think is going to go a lot higher than his original line that was posted. I bet pretty heavily into under thirteen and a half, under eleven and a half, and I could see the landing spots for Slater all over the place between seven and eleven. Um. You know that you've kind of you get the feeling that a lot of times you have gms who are somewhat on the rocks or a little

bit under pressure. Um, and you know you have you can do one of two things. You can make a risky pick and take a quarterback of the future, in which case you kind of start the clock on your tenure. Or you can take an offensive tackle and that's a lot safer play. And I can see a lot of kind of you know, got a lot of guys in the range of seven to eleven you know opts for the ladder there. Uh, there's been some you know, some politicking first slater that he potentially is as good, if

not better prospect and school. I don't see that, but if someone else does and there in that range, then he could go a little bit earlier than people are expecting as well. A tale what you got I have, as we've talked acknowledge, I have, I got four and a half wide receiver's first round. I've got Justin Fields under four and a half as opposed to three and

a half. So uh, it does give me an extra chance there if he doesn't happen to go three, which I also have Justin Field's going number three pick overall. But if he doesn't, someone getting getting antsy and trying to trade with the Falcons to get him at four. So I do have him utter four and a half, have Jamar Chase under six and a half, have Jamar Chase first wide receiver taken. I have Micah Parsons first

linebacker taken. And this is strictly This is based off of absolutely no intel other than the fact that nine two percent of every single mock draft that has been put on put out there has Michael Parsons is at first linebacker taken. They could be wrong, they is certainly there's still an eight percent chance, and that means some of the time it doesn't happen, or trades or any kind of anything like that. But I was willing to to lay the juice of that one have Cowboys to

take a defensive player as their first pick. Um, and I did go ahead and take certain under ten and a half as well. Um. Drew makes some good points the one, Like I said, they it is all over the place as far as what people seem to be the smoke around the Cowboys could be certain, could be far, They could be horn even um with with that, but certain being the one that at least is most often mentioned. I did go ahead and go there with that one

as well. I I, you know, I've been looking around and I think this is one of those ones guys that I think we've kind of we kind of alluded to it at least a little bit here at the beginning. But uh, and Drew, I think you might have even

said it. But as far as as far as value goes, now, as we sit a week out and looking, I mean, unless we get some sort of wave of information, unless we get some sort of you know, insider stuff that seems to be you know, accurate or whatever, I'm having a hard time pulling much more um out of this. It's it's I was. I've been digging through this as as much as I possibly can over the last week and a half. And I like the ones that I've got, and I've liked the ones that I've got in pocket.

But I don't think I'm gonna be betting just for the just for the hell of it and just for the sake of betting here, and I don't I don't think that there's a lot to to really pull out of this anymore. I I agree with that overall sentiment at this point. I will say this, I'm rooting for comedy at this point. The three most comical things I think that could happen, uh, the Raiders drafting Jalen Waddle at seventeen just just based on sheer speed at wide

out that they would go crazy again. The Packers drafting a quarterback obviously would be ridiculous. The Cowboys trading up for Kyle Pitts, which we've kind of heard a buzz or two about, would be absolutely ridiculous too, in their attempt to have maybe the number one offense and the number thirty two defense in the NFL, that would be ridiculous. Um, they might have that anyway. They they might have that anyway.

That's right, Um, Michael. I didn't want to ask a couple random questions though before before we close this out, though twenty four Matt and I talked about this on Primetime Action last night. I had Warren Sharp on a numbers game first thing this week, and he went off on how ridiculous it would be if the Pittsburgh Steelers

drafted a running back at twenty four. And one of the things that I'm very cognizant of is, listen, the draft is an in exact science to begin with, As you point out, I mean, like the play, the people who are picking themselves don't necessarily know how how these players will pay it out, let alone those of us

who then chime in afterwards. But one of the things that I do feel like I can comment about is the game of the draft, where you ought to pick players and where you ought not twenty four, though, if the Steelers drafted Naji Harris, I can't see myself getting that worked up about it. He was really worked up about them drafting running back in twenty four. Where do you stand on that? You know, I think it depends

on the value of the board. I mean, you know, if there's something, if they had an offensive lineman that they felt really good about, you know, then certainly you could say, well, we could trade back up in the second and we'll get one of these facts. I think it's easy for guys to be critical of where you take a guy. It really matters how they play. I mean, Harris is a really good back. I mean, you know, I'm not I'm not in love with draft and running

backs in the top ten. I think once you get past that, you've got to look at the player and what he contributes. You know, if they want Ben, I mean, it would make sense if they drafted a quarterback because Ben is not going to play it next year very at a high level. He didn't play at a high level this year, so you know, I mean, they can they get their quarterback of their future if there's a

guy there they like they should take it. I doubt if there'll be a guy there that they like, but they got to try to get a good player on their team somewhere. And running back an offensive line are the two places that they have the biggest holes, along with defensive line. I think the Steelers are going to take a giant step backwards. To me, I think the one thing we've missed on and with the Cowboys is there's a lot of conversation that Cowboys taking an offensive

lineman because Tyrod Smith is not healthy. They could move Collins over to left tackle and they need a right tackle. And the Cowboys, obviously they're They're probably most impactful draft ever was them choosing not to take Johnny Manziel and going offensive lineman twice some years ago. That really changed around that franchise. Drew you were, where do you stand

on twenty four? I'm just curious about if they picked Naji Harris because how many times did we watch Obama game and we're like this, dude, Mac Jones is great, Davante Smith is great, but Naji Harris is the best player on the field. I don't I don't really have I'm kind of in the same boat where you know, there's there's It's easy to make a case that picking and running back in the first round is a mistake.

It's pretty easy to point two teams that have done this in the near in the recent uh you know, recent past. I don't think of Rashod Penny Sonny Michelle. You know there there are a lot of examples of um, you know, even last year, Clyde Edwards Hilaire for the Chiefs, you know, like would would a would a little bit of offensive line depth been a better call and pick thirty two probably, um, you know, and and and for at least for the kind of the current state of

the NFL. I want a running back who's got good hands, who's you know, got multiple uh, you know, multiple ways he can impact a game, not just via the you know, the handoff. And I want a guy that can get you know, get the short get the hard yards, get the short yardage. Um. And I want But you can find those sort of guys, you know, in the free agency market, in the you know, via trade for low impact draft capital, or in the second round of the draft.

And so I wouldn't be shocked if we see running back slide in general, However, Naja Harris does stand out as you know, kind of a pretty pretty unique talent and a huge character guy as well for a lot of locker rooms. And we know the Steelers build through culture through a large degree, and if they feel like Naja Harris fits their culture and uh and or you know, all the best offensive linemen are off the board by

the time they're picking. I could see that happening. And I'm not really going to be especially critical of them, you know, you know, I'm not going to be especially critical if they do that. But I also say their offensive line in Pittsburgh is in such a poor state that it really doesn't matter who's running the ball. I

don't think you're going to get a ton of production. Uh. So I would say, you know, hold you you know, hold your horses if you're in like the Dynasty Fantasy draft situation or something like that, expecting he's going to make a huge impact for the Steelers in year one. Drew, you said, all fair, you said you're saving something for the podcast. Did I did you already get that out there? Well, I think we've talked about most of the good stuff, but you know, just a couple of other guys that

I've seen on the rise. There are a couple, you know, as you go down the board, there's a couple of guys that I think there's still some value on. Um. I'm getting the sense that there's a pretty decent buzz around to Sante Samuel Jr. I have his under forty one and a half, and I can see that number is already on the move into the thirties. Um. You know, cornerback, it's again, it's it's it's a tricky position because you out, you know, there's a there's a shortage of good cornerback

talent across the league. So Andy, there are some good cornerbacks in this draft. Um, But expecting to get a guy that's going to make a year when impact of cornerback is pretty uh, is pretty um ambitious. Uh. You saw some pretty talented cornerbacks last year really not be able to do much in year one. And it wouldn't shock me if teams are a little bit less, a little bit hesitant to use Round one capital and cornerbacks

this year. Um. But Sante Samuel Jr. Looks like a solid player to me and a long term contributor for a you know, a defense that's in need of a cornerback, and I think he's going to be sought after either at the end of around one or the top around two. Um. And then a couple of linebackers that I've gotten, I've I've heard, Uh, the two Miami edge rushers are falling pretty quickly. Both Jalen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau, for whatever reason, seemed to be lower on draft boards than sort of

the talent evaluators would have thought. Um, those guys are falling, falling fast. Um. And then but a couple of these linebackers do seem to be picking up steam. The Tulsa linebackers Aven Collins is one uh. The Kentucky linebacker Jim and Davis is one uh. And Michael Parsons, I'm not entirely sold on, is going to go at LB one. So I'm gonna take a couple of long term swings there and and and take both um, both Jim and

Davis and Zavian Collins as LB one. Oh okay, Um, that's that is really the wild card of this draft. Gil Brandt, who's seen decades worth of drafts, was saying the other day that that's the this will be the strangest draft because we have so many players. Not so many, but there's a handful of really top players. You just mentioned Michael Parsons, Jamaar Chase falls under this category obviously as well. That took the year off, and so you

really you don't know penasl right. You think you know what you're getting, you don't exactly know what you're getting. Matt alluded to it earlier with Justin Fields. Had he not played, I don't know how would how we'd be talking about him. Um. Last thing, Michael, we leave with you, because the very first thing you said was look at certain mock drafts where guys no certain franchises better than others. You alluded to it. You know the New England Patriots

better than any one. Um, what do you think they do? I think they you know, if they have so many draft picks, I think if there's a receiver that slips into the UH ten, eleven and twelve range, I think they go get them. They'll try to go get them. I think that could make sense if they felt like

they could uh. If they can't uh and they've stuck at fifteen, I think they would look for the best offensive lineman, or trade back and take a receiver, a second receiver, a guy that maybe is not a lot of people think as a high first rounder that they would take at the bottom of the first So I think those are their options. I think that's what they look for. I don't think they would trade up to get a quarterback. I don't think. I don't think that they fit. I don't think they fit into the uh

the narrative of of of Justin Fields. I think it would be if they traded, if they wanted to, they would trade to get someone like a trade lance that they could develop within a year. I don't I don't see the mechanical element of Justin Fields fitting how they throw the black. If you sat down with Tom Brady and studied quarterback throwing and you asked Tom Brady to critique Justin Fields is throwing motion, Tom would have a

disortation on it. And and I've listened to Tom talked about quarterbacks mechanics and it's throwing and the elbow, and I think that's probably the biggest concern the teams that value the mechanics of the quarterback have with Justin It's very interesting. We'll all know the answers to all these questions. One week from tonight, UM appreciated Michael Lombardi, who just got off the Lombardio. Thank you, Michael, appreciate it. Lombardi Line, GM Shuffle, grid Iron Genius, the name of the book.

Thank you, sir. Drew did Sick from the Deep Dive podcast also contributed to Visan and of course UM at NBC Sports Edge as well. Thank you, Drew, appreciate the circuit backdrop man. They appreciate it as well. That you do that, UM, and we'll talk next week. Matt Brown from Prime Him Action, who I will see momentarily to do our thing. By the way, the finest radio show there ever was That's what I'm billy it now nothing.

I agree, I agree, I agree. I like that stuff in a little and sometimes TV show and sometimes TV show, you know, when there's football being play. Thank you all, man appreciate it so much. We look forward to the draft. Thank you all for listening to the Beating the Book podcast. Good luck with all your draft props from all of Yeah