Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 7

H Plus we'll talk about baseball the Dodgers game last night. Interesting non pitching move that wasn't mentioned during the broadcast last night, and I'm curious what people think about that. Uh Loma, Chenko and Lopez got to talk about the judging there, but let us talk week seven of the National Football League. It has always for those who are just landing on this show for the first time on Monday's during football season, You're like, what's this guessing line stuff?

I'm in a cocoons it's yesterday. This is a tribute to the old Stardust radio show that Roxy Roxborough was involved in back in the day. Chrissie Andrews comes on tells me, after my guess what the line is that he's going to post right after the show at the south Point Hotel Casino, and hopefully within that exercise we find ourselves, uh the we extract some value, I should say, from the exercise itself. Let us bring in the star of the show. He is the south Point Hotel Casino

sports book director my mishka Chrissie Andrews. Good morning, Chris. What's going on flew leafing through pages? What are you doing over there? No? I'm getting my notes. Words like it. I like show prep. H. Let's start with let me just real quick, uh, Survivor over at Circa Jason. Four hundred nine people submitted supposed before ten, but I think somebody forgot again. Four nine fifty six went out yesterday,

fifty one of which were with the Patriots. So we are down to, by my count, three hundred fifty one, um, with the Dolphins and Colts being the big winners yesterday for survivors. Colts obviously put a scare into people, but so three left heading into tonight. I don't think anybody does. One person who has the chiefs tonight. But that's about it. Chrissy. How was your weekend as a book here at the

South Point. Um, it was pretty incredible. Uh yeah, we're talking like super Bowl type winds for Sunday and Saturday was great too, pretty much one on everything. What was your biggest winner? Our biggest winner? Oh? Probably? Oh yeah, it had to be the Green Bay Campa game last night. That was the biggest game, all right. That was I went three and two in the contest three and two. Who let me down was the Ravens, which had no

business losing that. That was just ridiculous. That's that's why the NFL is plink oh pre flop a t s. And then the other one that I lost on was Caroline who let me down? That was just a bad pick. But those are only those are the only two. So interesting that that was the game because I had Tampa Bay, but interesting that that was the game that was the big winner for you. Shall we begin with Thursday Night Football, Sir,

Thursday Night Football Giants and the Eagles. Giants in the Eagles, I don't get any better than this kind of does Actually Giants win yesterday twenty to nineteen. Well, we're gonna talk about coaching decisions today on this show. Let's start with the Washington football team Giants beat the Washington football team twenty to nineteen when Riverboat Ron Rivera elected to go for two after the football teamers cut it to twenty to nineteen on a Kyle Allen two Simms touchdown

pass with thirty six seconds left. So I don't know if this is one of these situations where Riverboat Ron felt the need to live up to his name. You know, that's that's always something that that you wonder about. You're like, you know, you don't have to be a riverboat every time. But he decided we're going for the win, even though really the only reason the Giants were up was because of an offensive turnover on the football teams part, and so it looked like they were in control of the game.

But yet they went for didn't get it, and so the New York Giants off the Schneide get their first win of the year. Daniel Jones just to illustrate how you know Washington really had this game. Uh, probably the advantage in this game. Daniel Jones twelve of nineteen for one hundred twelve yards passing. He gained seventy four yards on the ground. I don't know that I recall saying a stat line like that too often. Two hundred and forty total yards for the Giants in their win against Washington.

They were seven eleven on seven four eleven on third downs. At least they did that right. And then there's Philadelphia. I mentioned for those of us who had Baltimore against the spread yesterday, My goodness, what a rough, rough outcome that was. Carson Wentz was two touchdowns, note picks. He

was sacked six times, but that's his final line. He would two of seven for three yards with under five minutes left in the first half, two of seven for three yards, no touchdowns, no pick, sack three times with under five minutes left in the first half. Then seven of fourteen for fifty four yards of a half. By the way, it's Gill Alexander Chrissie Andrews guessing lines right here on a numbers game at Visa the Sports betting Network. No first downs for the Eagles on their first six

drives of the game. Miles Sanders did fill up the box score nine of one, eighteen had that one big run Travis Fulgum six or seventy five and a touchdown. It's the Eagles worst start since so it's the one in five Giants against the one four and one Eagles, and with an Eagles win and the Cowboys lost, the Eagles could be leading the division did points they are, Yeah, which, Chrissy is another real reason. What you just said right there to me is why Washington probably shouldn't go for

two there. Also, it's not like your season's over, trying to just push it in overtime. I'll say, Philly minus seven against the Giant, you're a little high. It's six and a half, which my power. Actually, I'm sorry, there's a little bit of six and almost all six, um, which is what I'm gonna open it my power. Raidings come to Eagles three without the home field advantage, and I guess we're starting to see that home field is meaning a little something. So I have no beef with

the six. But two things I want to comment on. You know, what I didn't understand was the first time the Eagles went for two, they're down seven, seventeen nothing, they score, making seventeen six go for two to cut it to nine. I didn't understand that. Uh, And it seemed like they were then chasing that point the rest of the way, you know, And uh, yeah, you know, listen that I go. I know the two points, you know, evangelicals that are out there, and uh, you know it's better.

I'm not sure it's better always. And I think we saw some examples of it yesterday the other day. I just want to say, and I started thinking about this yesterday. And I know I watched college football probably a lot more than you do, but I was sinking between Daniel Jones and Mitchell Trabinsky, you know, watching these guys. There was never a moment when I was in, oh my god, these guys are really going to be stars in the NFL.

I gotta go after these Yet, you know, I don't know if they wiled them in the you know, in Indianapolis and you know that camp and stuff. I guess they did, but never watching them play football, were you

just blown away by their incredible talents. So I don't know that that was my thought as I watching Jones yesterday with regard to your bisky, I mean, I said, I've said it a hundred times where it's like Deshaun Watson is there on display for the entire country to see, right and beats Alabama, the vaunted Alabama defense when their defense was spectacular right beats them in the National Championship. But yet you're enamored by this guy who had thirteen

starts at North Carolina. Like it's the strange, it's the strangest thing in the world what people convince them of themselves of. And here's Daniel Jones, a really high draft pick for the Giants. I don't know if we're at Donald level level yet in terms of thinking to go elsewhere, but soon enough we will be if this continues. Yeah, I don't think we're a Darnald level yet, you know, but you know we need to see some improvement. I can tell you that. Yeah, so six and a half

and I haven't seen any signs of it. Six six, Okay, I haven't seen any signs either. And I'm with you. Just to comment on your on your remark about, you know, the Eagles going for going for two early. I just think, and I've said this on this show before too, which is, coaches seem with the exception of one or two of them, which will talk about later, because they're just so leaps and bounds above the rest of their coaching cohorts. But most of these coaches seem to now it's it's gotten

into their brain. It's almost like they're like, okay, am I supposed to do? What if I do? What do I do here? I know I want to sound smart, I want to look smart. I don't want to be, you know, skewered in the press tomorrow. So I think I'm supposed to go for two here. So that's what we're gonna do. Like it just seems that arbitrary. Sometimes it's like the black jack player was, you know, It's like if you have the sixteen, you know how some there are some black jack players who are like, this

time I'm gonna hit. This time, I'm gonna just you know, I'm gonna sit on it. It's like, at least be consistent through, right, Like just give me that much. But you don't see that with these coaches. They'll they'll just sort of do what they want to on a whim. Um. So I didn't think, yeah, I'm I didn't think that that was necessarily the way to play it. And I certainly didn't think Riverboat Ron should have gone for it there.

But eagles six is what you're gonna put up. I had seven, Yeah, you know, I wouldn't want to go too high with anything on either one of these teams. You know, it just looks all right. I don't know, but seven would be a out. It's Chris Andrew's at Andrew's Sports. By the way, we rarely say your Twitter Crizzy at Andrew's Sports, author of then one Day available where all books are sold, including Amazon of course. How Sunday, how many afternoon games are we doing the two afternoon

game thing again this week? Uh? To? We have three one to three yellow three afternoon games. Jason four, Jason's have four to so yeah, I'm sorry, Jason's right, it is four. I missed the CRDS, all right. I like that distribution, all right? What's first on Sunday morning? Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cleveland at Cincinnati and FS excuse me a f C North. Cleveland loses, and I do mean lose

badly to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cleveland loses that game by the score of thirty eight to seven as three point dogs. Money came in on Cleveland as game time approach. They lose thirty eight to seven. Baker Mayfield ten of eighteen for one nineteen, one touchdown, two picks at four times times he was taken out of the game for case Keenum. In this one case Keenum was five for ten for forty six, but the Browns were one of twelve on third downs, they were oh for three on fourth down.

They only had two hundred twenty total yards of offense. They were minus two in turnovers. Just a recipe for disaster h Pittsburgh was one of mine. Yesterday, Sitton Senata was up on the Colts twenty one to nothing. And for those of us who have the Dolphins and Survivor, this was a tough one to watch the Colts come back because a lot of people have the Colts and Survivor. Joe Burrow future Hall of Famer, twenty five thirty nine,

that's my buddy. Matt Brown calls him uh on Primetime Action twenty five of thirty nine for three thirteen, no touchdowns, one pick, two sacks. Uh Tee Higgins biggest target once again, six for one twenty five. Bengals were eight of seventeen on third down, two of two on fourth down. They're O sixteen and one in their last seventeen road games. For those who like UH longer stats from even before Joe Burrow was around with the Bengals, Oh sixteen and

one last seventeen road games. That's their third loss this season. The Bengals third loss this season by five points are fewer and under Zach Taylor. Now they're three eighteen and one, three eighteen and one, outscored by the Colts thirty one to six after leading twenty one and nothing. As I said yesterday, I will say Cleveland is a It's not going to be that high. I'll say Cleveland minus three. At Cincinnati, it's three and a half. See two places

three with juice on the Browns. I'm gonna open three and after. You know, Gil, if you remember at the beginning of the year, I said not that Cincinnati is gonna win a lot of games, but they're going to cover a lot of numbers as a dog. And they did yesterday. That staff that you threw out earlier about their losses by five points or less, I think that goes to prove it. Uh, my power ratings come to five on Cleveland again without the home field advantage. Um,

how give sense much? But you know, I think three and a half like folk hat to start with. But you know, you look back at Baker Mayfield, still incredibly inconsistent and Joe Burrow at seventy nine point three was his qb R yesterday. So you know, they blew that game. You know, I'm still not sure a boy Taylor as a coach, but they blew that game. But it was not Joe Burrow's fault in anyway he played. I thought he played really well, certainly enough well enough for them

to win that game. Three and a half. I think I'd probably be looking at dog in this game. But you know, I know if I opened three, they'll just you know, flood me with the minus streets. I'm an open three and half to keep an eye on it. I think three is probably a little bit of a better number in this game. Three and a half to me would be uh take or pass for sure? With Cleveland cincinematic. Yeah, so I see it. Were you surprised by your Steelers yesterday? Yeah? You know what you gave

the staff? What was Cleveland on third down? And you know, I board did I hear it from Steeler fans this last week? If I'm not a defense that I didn't like the way they're playing, and the guys have given me all these statistics, but I know what I was seeing. They weren't making a lot of big plays when they needed to. And I don't have the number right in front of me, but their third down conversion rate as the defense was not very good, and that's probably what

they came into my mind. I'm looking to get them get the opposition off the field. They weren't always doing that, but they certainly did that yesterday. You know, mankup Fitzpatrick, which I never had much doubt, but like a lot of guys were saying, he wasn't playing that well this year, and he had the big interception returned for a touchdown that really kind of set the tone for the game. And I didn't make as terrific myself, so I think he was well worth trading a number one draft choice for.

So I heard it by by a lot of steel offense. But they did shut down Cleveland on third down and that was the most impressive thing about that about their defense yesterday, Very very consistent, and they really bottled up

Mayfield pretty good. Did Minka turned his career around like immediately after that, right as soon as he put on a Steeler's uniform one for just to repeat Cleveland one of twelve on third downs yesterday, and oh for three on fourth and again third down conversion rates both offensively. In terms of defensive prevention of it probably more a

thing that regresses to a mean than necessarily predictive. By the way, Cincinnati just repeat their stat third loss this season by five points are fewer there, one, four, and one, but three of those four losses by five points are fewer. And then obviously the tie as well. Let's do one more here, one more Dallas against your Washington football team, Dallas at Washington. Dallas hasn't played, uh, and they will

play tonight. By the way, two games tonight, of course, I should say one game this afternoon, really uh Pacific time. It's a It's a five pm Eastern two pm Pacific start between the Chiefs and the Bills. What an awkward time. Awkward just in terms of a time. We're not used to having a game start on a Monday, five pm Eastern, two pm Pacific between Kansas City and Buffalo. The Chiefs are five and a half point favorites in the first of two tonight in the National Football need to close

out Week six, and then it's Arizona Dallas. Uh. The originally scheduled Monday night I remember Kansas City Buffalo postponed because Buffalo Tennessee UM had to get postponed. And then it's just the whole Domino effect UM Arizona Dallas tonight. Dallas is a one and a half point favorite. So we get to see Andy Dalton start here. Not we get to but sadly we see Andy Dalton start because of Dak Prescott's season ending injury. So we don't know

about Dallas. We do know, as we just mentioned about Washington yesterday, losing to the Giants, had the chance to tie it and force what probably would have been overtime. Instead, they go for two and they miss, and so Washington's one in five. Dallas leads the NFCS that two and three headed into tonight's game. By the way, Kyle Allen yesterday for Washington thirty one of forty two for two,

eighty two touchdowns, one pick, sack three times. Terry McLaurin always need to mention for any Washington box score, seven catches, seventy four yards, I'll say a site unseen for the Cowboys tonight, I'll say it's Dallas minus four. Chrissie. There a lot of numbers out there, a low of three with some juice on the favorite and a high of four. I see it all over the place now, you know, if anybody was listening last week, I told everybody I loved the Cowboys this week, Uh they were a two

point dog. They've not one. I'm still running one at the south point, just one or one and a half. So pretty big turnaround as far as the number goes. But I expect Dallas to play well tonight. But still my numbers only come to a four point differential, again with no home field advantage, and I'm not sure Washington has ever had a home field hand with that new stage. Yeah, I mean their their home field is essentially zero. But as a placeholder, I'm gonna open it three and a half.

See how that goes. Um. I think that that's an okay starting point. But we'll see how Dallas plays that. But like I said, I expect Dallas to play Weldon Man. I think Andy Dalton is gonna be a very capable substitute for Dak Prescott. I can't imagine. Again, we don't know what's gonna happen with the Cowboys tonight. God forbid, there's any more injuries for them. But I'm just saying Dallas minus three. If that's what some have out there against Washington, seems like an auto auto play on Dallas.

To man, I know, Dallas's defense is terrible, but it's not like that's the thing. It's not like Washington has the offense to exploit that though, you know. So it's it's sort of weakness against weakness. And then if you look at the other side of the ball, I'll take I'll take Dallas's offense, despite how good Washington's defensive front can be. I'll take Dallas's offense, and that so Dallas you're putting up minus three and a half, he said, I'm using three and a half, but I would I

would take a little bit of issue with Dad. I think Dallas's defense is just so bad and Washington, you know, I mean, these guys are still professional athletes that were stars through high school and college. You know, his face and defense as bad as Dallas has been, and it's been bad, I think they can put up some points. So I'm not sure I automatically laid three, but the public might, especially if Dallas looks good tonight. Um, let's

try one more here, Okay, Detroit and Atlanta. Detroit at Atlanta. Detroit beats Jacksonville yesterday at the game that I probably saw three plays of, Detroit beat some thirty four to sixteen. They crushed him as three point favorites. A lot of turnovers for Jacksonville. Are a lot of big turnovers in that game. Um, let's see here. Detroit at Jacksonville detroited Atlanta is the so Detroit yesterday. Stafford Stafford nineteen twenty three,

one touchdown, one pick, sacked zero times. DeAndre Swift greatest name ever fourteen for one, sixteen on the ground, two touchdowns, Golladay four for one oh five. Detroit's time of his in advantage over Jacksonville thirty five fifty seven to twenty four oh three. Consecutive road wins for the first time since November twenty seventeen for the Detroit Lions. Congratulations to them. And then there's Atlanta, which got off the schnight. Atlanta

with their first win of the year. They crushed Minnesota forty to twenty three. Uh Matt Ryan thirty of forty three seventy one, four touchdowns, no picks, sack two times, Julio Jones eight for one, thirty seven, two touchdowns. They were nine of seventeen on third down, three for three on four four sixty two total yards. They were plus two in turnovers, and they had the ball for over forty minutes versus the Vikings forty oh seven to nineteen

fifty three. And I said, Atlanta minus four, what say you, you're a little high. It's almost a blanket three. I see it a little bit of three with some juice on the favorite. I gotta say I like that number better. My my, my numbers have these two teams at exactly even if we're gonna look at yesterday's game, you know, I thought Stafford looked really good. In a matter of fact, the whole deep the Detroit teams, particularly their offense, I

thought look really good. But they played a very bad Jacksonville team I think all of us had earmarked is the worst team in the league before the season started. Of course, the Jets of blowing them away as far as that goes. But I think you also look at Atlanta against Minnesota, and again their offense looked great, but it's looked great pretty much all year. First game of the Raheem Morris is their head coach, so I think that probably gave him a little bit of a psychological edge.

But also as Minnesota any good, I think we're conditioned to think that they are, but I don't. I don't think they aren't. I think that's been certainly one of the big disappointments so far this year. So I think you're seeing two teams that came off impressive wins against highly unimpressive opponents. And I think we're just conditioned to think Atlanta is a little better because their offensive been

so much better for so much longer that Uh. I think the public probably will lay the three, but I'm anna open three, and I'm willing to take a bet there. And I think the lines are very live in this spot. They laid me too. Three. I think that's gonna be fine. I'm certainly willing to take a bet there. These are pretty logical lines, like the guests is so far have not been far off on these, And your point about

Minnesota's well taken. Kirk Cousins yesterday thirty six for three, forty three, three touchdowns, three picks, but those three picks were all in the first half. It's the first time he's ever in his illustrious interception throwing career, and he was on epically historical pace. People who forget his early days with Washington, epically historical interception pace before the you like that game against the Buccaneers which sort of just flipped his career. Uh, this is the first time he's

ever thrown three interceptions in the first half. Ever. He has had twenty multiple interception games in his career. His teams in those twenty multiple interception games, oh and twenty So yeah, and then you know the rushing yards for the Vikings yesterday, thirty two total rushing yards. Again no Dalvin, right, but thirty two total rushing yards. That ain't gonna get it done. So, um, falcons are the beneficiaries. I mean,

take nothing away from the Falcons. They will probably do between now that we have the Falcons and the Giants, who we've already talked about winning, it's only the Jets who are winless now in the National Football League. So you're opening detroited Atlanta what number again? I'm opening three? And like I said, I'm pretty sure the public is gonna lay this. I'm not sure which way. Why do you guys are gonna go? But I think the public is gonna lay this, and like I said, I'm certainly

willing to take a bet at the three. But I think I think this will go to three and a half sooner probably rather than later, and then we'll see what the wise guys want to do. I think they'll probably come in on the lines, but that's just a hunch. But I think three is a good place to start. Let's continue with guessing lines in week number seven. What's next, ok it? We have Carolina at New Orleans. Carolina at New Orleans. New Orleans will be coming off of by

Carolina loses. That was one of my two losses in the contents. Yesterday Carolina loses to the Bears. So the Bears go to five and one. We'll get to them, but Carolina drops the three and three. Teddy Bridgewater yesterday sixteen to sixteen, no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked four times. D J. Moore got the most of it from him, five for ninety three. The Panthers out gained the Bears three oh three to two sixty one, but they were minus two in turnovers and that's usually the dilio.

By the way, you know I mentioned this with the Bears against the Bucks on that Thursday night game, how Matt Naggy, you know, the Bucks had one time out left and they decided the Bears did to throw a pass play, which of course went in completes of Tom Brady ended up getting the ball with way more time after the Bears go ahead field goal late than he should have, and it ended up working out for the Bears because Tom Brady had the senior moment, among other things,

and the Bears won the football game twenty to nineteen. Yesterday, same same thing. The Bears left the time out on the board for Carolina late when they threw a pass when they shouldn't have right should have just bled the clock made Carolina use their final time out. So Carolina ends up with the ball a chance to tie the game with the time out. UM, and it still worked out for the Bears, so they get away with it yet again. But Carolina loses to the Bears by the

final score yesterday. UM. Of of, let's make sure you know that three to sixteen, and UM get it done as a two point dog to the Bear. So this one here, in this particular situation, though, I will take New Orleans minus seven off of by Okay, they are seven and a half pretty much everywhere I see seven's with some juice on the favorite, but mostly seven a half, a little bit of seven half little juice on the dun I'm opening seven. The first thing I'm saying is,

at least you're in New Orleans? Is any good? And my answer is no, I'm not sure they're any good at all. And I just had them here they want. They beat the Bucks opening week, okay, with Brady's first game loss to the Raiders, lost to the Packers, Okay, no disgrace there, beat the Lions by six, beat the Chargers by three, so they even covered a seventh Okay, I'm sorry they did against the Buckets. Uh. In Carolina,

I'm not downgrading them after yesterday's win. And the more I look at this Bearer's team, I think that listen, they're five and one. How they're five and one, I have no idea, but their defense is very, very good. And I said it going into yesterday's game. I kind of like Carolina Myselfiah, but I think Gridgewater is getting better and better and better since that horrific injury had a couple of years ago. He did not play well yesterday.

There's no doubt didn't play well at all, But like I said, I think he was born to get a very tough defense. You know, my numbers come more to like six in this game, uh than seven and a half. And the seven and a half seems like an awfully high number for a team that I'm just not sure of at all. And I think Caroline is getting better and better as the year has gone on. So I'm opening seven. I'm sure they'll lay it to me. That's fine.

I'm willing to take a bet there, But seven and a half to me too high, and I have a feeling the wise guys are gonna come in on Caroline on this one. Possible that Christian McCaffrey will not return until the November eighth game at Kansas City, pardon me, which would mean he would miss six six games altogether. So help is eventually on the way, but not really anytime soon for the Carolina Panthers. So you are opening seven, You're opening the number that I guessed on that. All right,

let's do one more here. Buffalo at the New York Jets. Buffalo at the Jets. Buffalo again plays today. Buffalo's got that game against Kansas City it's the early game, the five pm Eastern two pm Pacific game. Buffalo five and a half point Dogs hosting Kansas City today, Buffaloes four and one. As far as the Jets, UH, the Jets are now oh and six. They're the only winless team in the National Football League. They got past their own thirty three yard line yesterday in a just a absolute

destruction by the Dolphins. Dolphins beat him twenty four to nothing. Jets got past their own thirty three yard line on one drive in the first half. Only four drives in the entire game did they get past their own thirty three yard line, and two of those were in garbage time. With under ten minutes left in the second half, the Jets were down twenty one and nothing. I don't know if anybody noticed this, but this is when you know you're a really bad football team. Under ten minutes left

in the UH. This is in the third quarter, now what I'm talking. Under ten minutes left in the third quarter. Jets are down twenty one and nothing in Miami unsuccessfully tries to draw the Jets off sides. I think it was a fourth and short near midfield. Brian fitz Patrick does the hard count, they unsuccessfully. The Dolphins unsuccessfully try to draw the Jets off side about two seconds after the whistle blows to indicate that it's a delay of

game in the five yard penalty. Ryan Fitzpatrick just sort of comically stays behind center in a crouch and keeps yelling things and then just laughs, just smiles, because he's just having such a gay old time out there right that he's just like, this is ridiculous. But that's when you know your football team is a joke. When the other player just doesn't care anymore. By the way, Flacco yesterday forty four for one, no touchdowns, one pick, three sacks,

one of which was comical. The Jets were two of seventeen on third down. They didn't convert a third down till the fourth quarter. Miami wasn't good on third downs either. They're the only wins winless team, as I mentioned in the NFL three losses by twenty plus points. It's their first o and six starts since when Rich co Tight was their coach. Whenever you invoke co Tight, it's bad. And they've been outscored one fourteen to twenty nine in

the first half this season. They were outscored one fourteen to nine in the first half this season, including twenty one to nothing yesterday. Chrissie, we gotta go to break because I'm gonna get your number after I guess mine right here. But they are they are really bad, like so bad. I mentioned this last week on the show. One of the probably best Survivor strategies this year is just take the team that plays the Jets, like if you you can't do it every week because you're obviously

gonna play teams in their division twice. But man, are they bad? And Sam Donald now trade rumors uh starting to fly about him getting traded indeed, so we shall see there. I'll say Buffalo minus ten at the Jets will find out what the number is coming back on a numbers game at vicent these sports betting network. We haven't gone over your Bills and Jets number. Oh, I said, Bills minus ten. That's right, go ahead, what's what do you? What do you no? We have not I apologize? Yes, Okay.

First of all, uh, my freend Barry who's from Miami is probably listening right now, and it doesn't have a high opinion of coach Gaze. Let's just say the first time Gaze went to half time and as a head coach in Miami and saw Miami up by twenty one point. That was pretty good twist, you know, Uh yeah, this, you know. And during the break, I was looking for this chart, so I don't it's not a candlestick chart.

I forget what they call this chart. It's kind of like a plus minus chart of games with their final outcome. And it's so bad for Adam Gays. It's unbelievably horrible. On how many games he's lost to buy you know, a certain number of points, and how many games he's won. The wins obviously are very few, and four between. My numbers come to eighteen on this game. My first mention of diminishing returns because you know, I don't think of a road favorite eighteen points in the NFL. But anyway,

the number is eleven, and I'm gonna open eleven. But if I because I do see one Tan out there, if I see this trending higher in any way, shape or form, I'm going high. This team is historically bad as far as my methodology of keeping power ratings. This is the worst I have ever had, I believe for the Jets, and they're playing a very good team, by the way, and I know they've got trounced last week, but I expect them the show tonight. And I don't know if they beat Kansas City, but I think this

will be a very very close game. So I'm gonna open at eleven. But if I see a trending higher

in any way, I'm going to higher myself. Yeah. And Sam Donald, by the way, who suffered an a C joint sprain in his throwing shoulder during that Thursday Night lost to the Broncos, hasn't played in two weeks, and now it seems to have drifted into if you believe reports they're trying to trade Sam Donald, Joe Flacco looks like he care is as much about a football game as I do about the opera that's taking place in

uh elsewhere tonight. I don't know where. I care as little, no matter where it is, But he just doesn't look like he cares at all. And that might just be his face, might just be the Flacco face. Maybe he cares deeply, but I just don't. I just don't get that that feeling about it when you watch him at a game. Uh. And the Dolphins for your friend the Dolphins. Uh, they were one of nine on third downs. We got to see two of for two passes two it was

two of two for nine yards um. Consecutive wins by twenty plus points for the first time for the Dolphins, the first time the Miami Dolphins have been ahead of the New England Patriots in the a f C East and Week six or later since two thousand and eight. First time week six or later since two thousand and eight that they've been ahead of the Patriots. Take that for what it's worth, But what are you posting? Then? What's the final number? That's the highest water market I see.

So that's where I'm gonna go with. I see a little bit lower in some spots, but I'm gonna stay high on this one. These guesses have been spot on, spot on, all right, give me one more Packers at the Texas Packers at the Texans. Okay, Green Bay loses the Tampa Bay. Yesterday, Green Bay loses the Tampa Bay Rodgers was sixteen of thirty five or one sixty no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked four times, only two hundred

and one total yards of offense for the Packers. Yesterday they were minus two in turnovers, but those two turnovers because it was zero versus two, those two turn two turnovers were two Aaron Rodgers picks. The Packers were up in this game ten to nothing, and it looked like they were going to dominate this football game, really and then a pick six to Jamal Dean thirty two yards

to the house made it ten to seven. Then three Packers offensive plays later on the ensuing drive, Mike Edwards returns to pick thirty seven yards to the Green Bay to next play touchdown. Green Bay never scored again, thirty eight straight for the Tampa Bay Buck and years and green Bay falls from the ranks of the unbeaten. So now we have three unbeaten Tennessee, Pittsburgh in Seattle. Houston loses to Tennessee. Uh, we should probably talk about that.

Houston loses to Tennessee forty two to thirty six at overtime. Deshaun Watson thirty seven for three thirty five, four touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice fuller six for to touchdown. It's Houston's worst start at one in five since two thousand five. Okay, let's talk about Romeo Crennell. First, Romeo Crenell, let's do the one that everybody's talking about. Then we'll do the part that that no one's talking about, or

very few people are talking about. But Derrick Stevens Wash was smart enough to talk about this morning on Follow the Money. Uh. First of all, Romeo Crenell Houston got decides to go for it on fourth and goal at the Tennessee one up thirty to twenty nine with one fifty three left. Okay, that's the right play Watson to Cook's touchdown, But then they're up thirty six to twenty nine, and instead of kicking an extra point to go up eight, they go for two to try to go up nine

and seal the deal. At least that's Romeo Cornell's thinking. They fail, because, of course they do. Watson to Cobb was the intended pass, so that, of course then means they're only up thirty six to twenty nine instead of just kicking the extra point and going up thirty seven. Of course, it leads to an eleven play, seventy six yard drive that with one forty five left in the game, took one forty one. Uh Tannehill to Brown seven yard touchdown pass to win it, or excuse me, to tie

the game. Once they hit the extra point four seconds left, then, of course Tennessee wins the coin flip in overtime, and on the second play of overtime, Tannehill to Henry Little pass goes fifty three yards. Four plays later, Henry crashes in from the five ball game forty two to thirty six. Uh. That's Tennessee's fourth win this season by six points or fewer. But enough about Tennessee. Let's get back to Crinell for

a second. We'll get to Tennessee in a minute. Crenell deciding Chrissy to go up nine, try to go up nine, up seven with one forty five left in the game, instead of just kicking the extra point again, getting back to our discussion earlier, just stop overthinking it. Kick the extra point because it makes the other team have to successfully do two things, not one two, because we're again

we're assuming the Uh. If you get a touchdown, you're expected point value of a two point conversion is around is just around one, meaning it's a fifty fifty proposition. Whereas with extra points, you know it's still much closer to to getting the point converted, you're expected point values just shy of one. You're gonna miss some, but you're gonna make most of them. I just don't understand. I get what. I get that. The thinking is, oh, we'll

go up nine in the game will be over. Yeah, But if you don't and it's a fifty position, because you're not the team with Derrick Henry, you're the team that always goes and shotgun anyway in those situations, what are you doing? And am I wrong? Oh no, I think you're right. And the other thing that you know is always part of the equation and I don't think it's discussed enough is once, once you're you complete, whatever it is, whether you kick or go for to make

miss whatever, the other team gets the ball. And right now, like you said, the other team gets the ball, Okay, they have to do two things just to tie you. Okay, But then after that, well, I mean, you know, it gets a little theoretical because we're getting into overtime. But then you have a chance to get the ball, you know, so you know, I mean, I thought like if you just follow the dogs, you know, kicking and going up a was absolutely the right choice. And there may be

some mathematical up out there that would indicate otherwise. But uh, I think there's a psychology to it as well. Your team has not one too many games this year. Uh, and you have a chance to beat a very very good team on the road by again by going up eight and forcing them to do two different things just to tie you. I think you know you had to go for one there and go up bait. I think you just had to. And you know I don't. I don't want to second guess because we were in the

office at the time saying will you do this? And none of us would. Oh, there was there was no armchair quarterbacking with that. That was right at the moment. What is he doing? What is he doing? And the other way to say it is what you're doing up seven right there is you're you're basically saying, you know what, let's put the burden of converting the two point conversion on us rather than on the other team. That sounds like a smart thing to do instead of the other

way around. And just if that sentence alone doesn't drive it home, I don't know what else does. Uh. It's Green Bay at Houston. Getting back to the point, I'll say Green Bay. I don't know. I'll say minus three is that too short? My numbers come to three, uh, but it's mostly three and a half. I do see some threes out there with juice on the favorite, but my numbers come to the three and halfs I said, even though it's a little higher than what my power

ratings would be. I think the Packers coming off a loss like that, I think you're really going to be tremendously focused on this game and make amends. Where Houston coming off a loss like that, I see it kind of the other way. So I like three and a half much better in this spot, even though my numbers

few a little bit lower. All right, when we come back, everybody's talking about the Romeo Canal decision, the Romeo Crenell decision to go for two, But we got to talk about something that Mike Rabel did before that final sequence on that same drive. That is the difference between winning and losing football. Unbelievable what Mike Rabel did, and shout out to him put him up there top tier, if not at the top, right behind Belichick of NFL coaches.

We'll discuss it next. Guessing lines right here on the Numbers game at Visa. These our number two of the Numbers game right here at Visa, these boards Betting Network series except Channel two or four, Visa dot Com, the Visa that Food bos link A Game plus Skill Alexander, How you doing? Jason Conn is here. Chrissie Andrews from the South Point Hotel Casino sports Book guessing lines for

week number seven in the NFL. I don't think our one turned up anything really like that was pretty ho hum guessing slate of the of half the schedule thus far. But what I want to get into here because we just talked about the Houston side, because Green Bay at Houston, Chrissy just throughout as a game next week. So we talked about the Romeo Crennell thing. Chrissie, do you know what I'm about to talk about with Mike Rabel or you hip to what he did yesterday? Yeah? It was

the Xtra man on the field. Okay, but go ahead, I'll let you say and then I have a comment about it team Yeah, So okay. One of the staples of of this show a numbers game at Visa through the years talking football. You may remember my converse stations with Todd wishnev about the rules and the NFL about two point conversions and how you can manipulate it, how the not how you can manipulate it, but how the rules are really skewed in favor of the offensive team

at that point. Uh and you and we've talked on this show about all the different little loopholes that coaches there very few of them, but coaches in the NFL can exploit. And one of the big ones we used to talk about was when the clock was north of five minutes. In other words, when there was more than five minutes left in a football game and a team was nursing a lead. Bill Belichick used to do it

all the time. He used to take multiple delay of game penalties and as long as you were had more than five minutes on the clock, and no matter how many you know, you did it. When you were in an advantageous position up late in the game, you could take multiple delay of games and the clock would keep restarting. I think you could do it about three times and then they'd probably say, all right, we know what you're doing, and you you'll get a flag if you do it again.

But Belichick did it a lot and Mike Rabel, who of course played for Belichick, started doing this with the Titans, and most famously last year, and we we just were tickled by this. If you remember, in the playoff game against the Patriots themselves, Vrabel and the and the Titans

were up fourteen to thirteen last year. Late and during the fourth quarter he exploited that same loophole in the rule book that allowed Tennessee to rule to run one minute and forty nine seconds off the clock without running a single play. And it was fitting because again, as I said, it was the same strategy that Belichick, for instance, used all the time. He used it during a thirty three to nothing went over the Jets in October of

last year. So in that game in the playoffs, the Titans had a fourth and five from the Patriots thirty six yard line with just six thirty three left to play, and uh Vrabel didn't want to kick a field goal because the weather was was in clement, so he decided to punt the ball, but not until his team took a delay of game penalty, which took the clock down to five fifty two left. Following that penalty, Titans got

a fresh twenty five second blay clock. They let the new clock tick down to zero before taking a false start penalty, which didn't sit well with Belichick. Belichick was going nuts on the sideline because he's like, here's my guy using my thing against me. It was awesome. At that point, the clock was down to five after being called for two penalties, the Titans were finally going upon it, but then the Patriots, if you remember, jumped off sides,

which allowed the Titans. They clocked down to five thirteen, and then after that penalty, the Titans got another fresh twenty five second clock, and by the time they finally snapped it, there was just four fifty left to play, including the pun itself. The clock actually tick down to four or forty four, which mean the Titans ran a total of one minute and forty nine seconds off the clock before the Patriots took possession. You may recall the Titans end up winning it twenty thirteen. Um. Okay, So

that was that, and they changed that rule. By the way, they changed the rule this offseason because they're like, oh, well, you did it. They finally noticed it when it was done on a big playoff stage and they're like, okay, we know what you're up to buddy, then enough of that rule Bill Belichick and Mike Rabel. But this was the first sign that Mike Vrabel was smarter than the average NFL coach, right, he was a Belichick design So yesterday and again shout out to Derrick Stevens who picked

up on this. Also he mentioned it on Follow the Money this morning. Yesterday, the same drive we're talking about, Romeo Crenell ultimately decided we're going for two up seven and we know how the rest of that went out. We just talked about it. The Titans matriculated down the field the force overtime. They win in overtime, by the way, win for betters too. Just a tough beat for Houston Texans betters. So yesterday Vrabel with it's got to be

the best decision of Week six and props. The real people whom who talked about it the most is like it are in a Titan sub reddit group, like that's how. That's how because the announcers, of course said nothing, They had no idea what was going on in this. So the Titans trailed Texans thirty to twenty nine. They had just turned over the ball on a Ryan Tannehill interception.

So Houston up thirty to twenty, up thirty to twenty nine had a second and one at the Titans twenty five yard line with three forty nine remaining on a running clock. Uh now, follow me here, and let me just pause to say it's kill Alexander and Chris Andrews right here on a numbers game at Visa in these sports betting network. Uh serious, except Channel two four guessing lines.

But also talking about this amazing thing that Mike Frabel did yesterday, the difference between winning coaches and losing coaches in the NFL. So second in one of the Titans twenty five, three forty nine remaining on a running clock, so you know they got a second and the third down, they only need one one yard. The odds of them

converting that the Texans that is very high. But if the Titans were penalized five yards, the clock would stop and it would become a first down for the Texans, and it would save approximately forty seconds of clock time. And again, while it cost them the second down conversion, they were likely to give it up anyway. So very so, Mike Vrabel sent on an extra defender, putting twelve men on the field on purpose and setting up the penalty.

And if you watch the video and shout out to Mike Herndon at Mike Miracles on Twitter if you want to see this, Mike Herndon at Mike Miracles. The video shows cornerback Jonathan Joseph looking really confused, like coach, I'm not supposed to be out here kind of expression, and Rabel sort of telling him through his mask because we can't see what he's actually saying, but basically saying, hey, don't worry about it, everything's okay, just stay out just

stay out there kind of thing. He does a great cell job and gets the penalty, and so in the end, yeah, they matriculated it down to the one yard line, they ended up getting the touchdown and then they then they shot themselves in the foot with a terrible decision to

go for two, and again the rest is history. But those they wouldn't have had one minute and forty five seconds to work with the Titans had Vrabel not exploited yet another thing in the rule books where he's like, well, it's not even avoiding, it's you know what, um, it's a positive e V. It is a wind probability plus for him to do this right now, to throw out a twelve min and take a penalty, stop the clock, give them another set of downs. Genius, Chrissie, genius. That's

the difference between their win and their loss. Okay, one thing you said. The announcer was in saying, said, well there's another there's a mental mistake by Mirabel on the field. Yeah, they said the opposite. Warren sharp on hit House. He did the exact same thing. In ten they were playing

the Jets. The announcer again was Risk Annon, and Rich Cannon again said this, well, yeah, he said at first, obviously that another mistake by Mike Grabel, a mental error by Mike Grabel by having twelve men on the field. And both times obviously Brabel did it on purpose to save the time, and it went past Rich Scannon twice. I gotta say it would have gone past me too had somebody not explained it to me. So I think Brabel.

And by the way, just to remind people out there, he was originally a Steeler and I can't remember if they cut him or traded him for some late draft choice to get him over to New England. And I remember at the time they get they crazy. This guy is a terrific player, and he's had a great career. I don't know how many Super Bowl rings he had, and he's gonna be a terrific coach and he's already in certain I'm not gonna put him up with Billichick yet,

but he's certainly in that upright. And the guy really shows a lot of high level thinking, higher than most of these coaches. Service he joined the Patriots as a free agent. By the way, two, I think that Steelers might have just cut him. Yeah, it could be. Uh, it's it's just a amazing play, amazing heads up play or heads up coaching decision by Mike Vrabel. And again that's the difference between winning and losing. And certainly Romeo Crennell then helped out as well after that, but they

don't get there without that decision from Rabel. So the Titans remain undefeated. I'm guessing, because Jason kind of tipped me off on this, that the Titans is the next game. H No, I think that's Seahawks and Cardinals next. Seahawks and Cardinals. Pardon me, Seahawks and Cardinals. Seahawks are coming

off of buy and the Cardinals haven't played yet. Cardinals played the Cowboys again tonight in the second of the two Monday Night games, the originally scheduled Monday Night game between the Cardinals and the Cowboys, where the Cardinals are now one and a half point dogs in this game, Um, I don't know, Seattle shouldn't be three points. The other thing, Seattle is undefeated, but good lord, I mean it's Russell Wilson escape jobs as per usual, I'll say it's a

I'll split the difference between three in pick. I'll say Seattle, mindus one and a half. Well, it's three with Juice on the favorite, Sea Dogs being the favorite, and I haven't hired net. You know my opinion of Russell Wilson, and I do not want to go into Sunday's game rooting against Russell Wilson because, first of all, I think they I think the Cardinals lose tonight. So I mean, I'm opening three and a half on this one. They might jump in and take it because it's three with

Juice on the favorite. But I'm opening three and a half. And uh, you know what you want to bet against? Run? Please do that? Please? Because I'm so tired of rooting against the sky every single week and usually getting my handed to me at the end of the day. Well, I'm with you. I like Seattle. I've said it many times. I hate betting against Russell Wilson, but you know who else? I hate betting against Kyler Murray too. That might be my first play. That might be the first one I like.

Here on guessing lines Arizona against Sight unseen and played yet they played tonight. But if it's more than three, I'll grab the Cardinals for sure. In that one. They will be on short rest though, as they played tonight. All right, let's do one more here. Uh at the Patriots the forty Niners. At the Patriots. Forty Niners win last night. Uh. They beat the Rams by the score of twenty four to sixteen as two point home dogs.

Jimmy g u gets in the game twenty three of thirty three, three touchdowns, no picks, uh, no sacks, Kittle, no surprise as biggest target seven for one O nine and a touchdown. So San Francisco beats the Rams, probably the fewest plays of a prime time NFL game I've watched, quite frankly yet this year because the Dodgers and the uh The Dodgers and the Braves had their Game seven going last night, and I was far more invested in that affair that I that I was in this football game,

if I'm just being honest. But I saw enough and Jason was telling me, you saw the right play, which was that Jared golf pick in the end zone when it was twenty one to nine and the Rams had a shot, and then he threw that pass in the end zone. New England yesterday, this was the big one. This is the biggest survivor lost yesterday. New England loses to Denver and they lose to Denver by the score

of eighteen to twelve. Denver scored on their first six possessions, all six Brandon McManus field goals, and those points held up. New England ended up Cam's numbers. Cam was seventeen to twenty five in the end for one fifty seven, but he had gained seventy six yards on the ground on ten carries with a touchdown, but he only threw, so he ran for seventy six. He only threw for one fifty seven. Edelman threw two passes on this final drift,

so here's the thing. In this game, it was eighteen to twelve, and it was well, first of all, was eighteen to nine, and then all of a sudden Drew Lock and the Broncos decided, you know what, we're gonna throw down field because that's what that's what you do. Like if you had told me, are you the team that's up eighteen and nine or the team that's down eighteen to nine. So Lock throws two cans secutive picks

deep downfield. The first one leads to a New England Patriots uh field goal that makes it eighteen to twelve. The second one, you're like, are you kidding me? What are you doing? Milk the clock? Make the mus their time mounts win this. So the Patriots end up with the ball and a chance to win, and you're like, I can't believe this is happening. They go to two

Edelman trick plays. Edelman ends up two for two for thirty eight yards, but in the end, the Broncos get the stop and the Patriots lose three turnovers for the Patriots in this game, so that we're minus one in that department. Despite the Drew Lock picks late, it's the Patriots worst start at two and three since two thousand one, and get this, the first loss under Bill Belichick when not allowing a touchdown? How about that um San Francisco at in New England. Now this is gonna be interesting.

I was gonna say the first hour of this show there wasn't much in terms of a line discrepancy. But we've started out with a bang here in this one, I'll say, I'll say New England minus three just because they're the Patriots. Yeah, it's it's a little higher. I see one, three and a half. A lot of juice on the dog, mostly three juice on the favorite. So you know at the south Point we open or we do everything in eleven and tent, not just open, we

do everything in the eleven and tent. I'm opening three flat and I again, well, first of all, my my point of rings on the Niners have been like all over the place because all the injuries they've had, including Garoppolo but also a myriad of other players. But are we sure the Patriots are any good? Yeah? And are we now wondering? Are we now saying ourselves? Oh, this is why nobody wanted to sign Cam Newton to an exorbitant contract in the off season because he has not

looked good. He had one good game and when the opener, and we thought it was the second coming, but he has not looked very good since then. Uh to me, three, three to me is a take. I would take three with the forty Niners. I think this New England team they're suffering from the same exact thing that they suffered from last year. No skill position players to help a quarterback. And last year they had Brady. This year, Uh, this year they don't. They have Newton, who I think maybe

it's just a shell of themselves. So I think I think three to me is a definite take for the forty Niners. And I'm gonna open three, but it's it's three with juice, so they'll probably lay it to me and have that it. You're welcome to it. I was really hoping you were going to tell me New England was like a four and a half point favorite, because that I just wanted there to be a New England bump. But maybe there isn't one anymore after seeing that yesterday.

So three it is. By the way, it's it interesting you keep saying, you know, are we sure this team is good? Are we sure that team is good. That's sort of been a theme on MSG plus on Primetime Action, the show that I do UM with Matt Brown and Danielle Ovary and Kelly Bidlin, where we do in game betting. We talk now specifically in the a f C. We get who's good. Kansas City is good, Baltimore is good, Buffalo and Tennessee Pittsburgh as well. You can't really deny

that those are good football teams. Maybe maybe there's a flaw here and there with them. Okay, none of them are perfect, but those are good football teams. Can we say there isn't a glaring flaw in any of the NFC teams? Maybe Tampa Bay, maybe Tampa Bay's the best of the bunch after what we saw yesterday, might be, but like the rest of them, I just don't know Green Bay's defense and that good. Certainly going back to the a f C, certainly New England. Uh No, they're

not good at all. There's a lot of teams that are. First of all, there's a lot of bad teams, right. I used say this about baseball. The last three years, the chasm between the halvens and the have nots have widened increasingly every year. You're seeing guys you know who aren't aces at minus two seventy and minus two eight in games. We didn't see that three or four years ago. Football. Man, there's so many bad teams. Um, I'm not saying New

England's one of them, but they're not good. So San Francisco at New England, New England favored by three, and I might be with you it might be a take on the Niners from even at that number. What is next, sir? Are we in the afternoon yet that game was? The game was the afternoon? Sorry, I mean to skip. The Titans game is in the morning, so it must be at the end of the rotation because something Okay, that no problem. What's next, Chris? This is an afternoon game,

Kansas City at Denver. Alright, Kansas City, we haven't seen them play. They're playing Buffalo again this afternoon. Don't forget five pm Eastern two pm Pacific for the Bills Chiefs game today, and the Chiefs are five and a half point favorites there. But as far as the Chiefs at the Broncos, the Broncos in that win over the Patriots. True luck ten of twenty No touchdowns. The two picks

I just mentioned sacked twice. So it wasn't that last those last couple of sequences of of you know, those last drives, he would have had a pretty you know, clean game at least in terms of the turnovers, for sure,

at the very least. But he had picks with five fifteen left in the game, up eighteen to nine, which led to a field goal as I mentioned, and then at eighteen to twelve another the next play from scrimmage with three fourteen left, and then the defense holds up with fifty eight seconds left, they finally stopped the Patriots. Good Lord, Lindsay one oh one Tim Patrick four catches

for one oh one. The other thing about that game, Chrissie, one other last note about Denver and New England, besides the ridiculous lock picks, like, what are the Broncos doing? Do you know how any penalties were called in that whole game? Three three penalties? New England had one penalty for four yards ned in that game. It's just amazing. They really are just holding these uh these flags in their pockets. And as I mentioned, the Broncos scored on

their first six possessions, but all were field goals. All that said, again, barrying anything unforeseen tonight with the Chiefs. Chiefs have got to be ten point favorites here, right, I've seen anywhere between eight and a half and nine and a half. My numbers come to eight and a half, you know, Gil, I was looking through some of my notes and when the Puncos were oh and three, let me see who did they lose to. They lost to the Titans, the Steelers in the Bucks. So all pretty

good teams. And really again except for the Buccaneers, had really a pretty good showing against the other two I had in my notes. I said, watch out for this team, not that they are any good, but kind of the way I thought about Cincinnati, a team that could be a live dog covering a lot of numbers, and I'm going to stick with that. Um Now, I don't want to go too far off the number here because Kansas City's always going to attract a lot of money. But like I said, I see anywhere from eight half to

nine and a half. I'm not going in the middle with a nine. Uh. And even though Kansas City it's probably still the best team in the league, they're certainly right up there. But I think Denver is going to be that kind of team. Look out for them covering some big numbers, and this is you know, nine, certainly a big number, especially for home team, and I kind of I'm not circling Kansas City yet, I mean Denver yet, but I would keep an eye on them and watch

for them from here on in. Like I said, much situation like Cincinnati. If you see him catching a big number, take a second look at them, because I think they might be worth a play and that, but they might be worth a play in the spot too. You know what my relationship with Drew lock is. I think I underrated him to begin with, criminally, and now I think I'm overrating him. I think that's I think that might

be the case with him. Well there's another guy can use some good coaching, and I'm not sure he's getting that in Denver. Yeah, yeah, you're right. That's gonna hold them back. And I don't know what they were thinking. I mean, on a day when we're talking about Romeo Crenell and Ron Rivera, I do not know what the Broncos were thinking in the last stretch of that game

play to win. My goodness. We'll get to some more lines to guess Week seven in the National Football League, a whole bunch more to get to, including uh, the primetime games as well. Well, we're jumping ahead here at a prime time Okay, they're all over the place here, you know, so you know, but we want to go in rotation order and my correct Okay, sure we can do it that way. Okay, al right. The Sunday night

came Tampa Bay at Las Vegas. All right, we talked about Tampa Bay, big win for those of us who had Tampa Bay. But they really they got players back, They got Godwin back, specifically Tom Brady. Yesterday seventeen of twenty seven for one sixty six. Didn't have to do much once the defense got them under way. As as we talked about earlier, the two the one pick six and then the other interception consecutive consecutive drives for the Packers.

Four plays is all it took to have the two interceptions. The next one was returned all the way to the two yard line, and a ten to nothing Packers lead was immediately reversed into a fourteen to ten Buccaneers lead. Thirty eight straight for the Bucks. They went at thirty eight to ten Ronald Jones second one thirteen with two touchdowns, Gronk five for seventy eight and his first touchdown as a Buccaneer. Good for Gronk. Tampa Bay no penalties for

no yards. How about that? You don't see that very often? Zero penalties, zero yards for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We're talking about only three penalties were called in the New England uh Denver game, with New England getting one. Well, how about a clean sheet from the Buccaneers and they're playing the Raiders. The Raiders will come off a a week of rest. They have a bye week this week. We know that because Brent traveled all the way to Montana for the bye week. He's like, I'm taking the

week off. Kind enough of Brent to do the megapod though, So it'll be Tampa Bay at the at the Raiders here at what is just that's listen the year of and COVID what ah, What a sad for Raiders fans. It would have loved to have had Tom Brady to see at the brand new stadium. I'll say Tampa Bay, it's gonna be more than three. I'll say three and a half Tampa Bay minus three and a half. Now it's three with juice on the dog. So three is

I'm gonna open three. My numbers four and a half and my numbers are four and a half and no home field. I think you have to give him a little home field here, So I think the three sounds fine. But yeah, a lot of respect for the Raiders. Like I said, there's we do everything flat at the south point, so we'll open it three flat. I'll probably bet me the Raiders because I see it all three with juice

on the dog. Explain that to people who are tuning in for the first time, Christie, Explain what you mean by because they're like flat, What do you mean he doesn't have half points? That's not what you mean. No, we have that point. But we we do everything at minus one ten or eleven at ten, however we want to phrase that, we don't. We don't put you. We don't use like three minus a ball or twenty or or seven minus a dollar twenty or you know any

of that stuff. Everything is minus one tent, you know, on the board for sides and totals. Now, first half, second half, those we do some fanagal in there. But as far as like the games themselves. No, everything is minus one tent, everything, everything, everything, Keep making it as simple as possible. And uh, Michael Gone and Frank Todi has a longtime partner of insistent on it. And the thing was, I don't resist it at all. And when I was in Kelneva for twenty two years, I did

the exact same thing, you know. I mean they're re used minus one tent. That's what the number is. And you know, I know there's probably places where it fits better or I don't blame them for doing that, but for us, this is what we want to do because we want to bring in you know, your everyday customer. And it's very you know, it's not that complex. You know, a game might go from three to three and a half,

but you are going to lay minus one tent. That is a promise that we have here at the out point. Say a couple of tweets here at beating the book. Always appreciate the tweets. Adam Rosenberg Vrabel is absolutely the best coach in the NFL. Remember how shrewd he was on that delay of game penalty last year against the Bats in the playoffs. Yeah, we discussed it this morning. Adam uh, I Evan love this guy. This sort of

thing isn't happening without analytics. Yeah, well no, we went through the whole delay of game thing and now it's no longer permitted. Talking about Vrabel's intentional twelve men on the field yesterday, which is the lesser of the two things discussed from that game, the more discussing obviously being Romeo Crenell's decision to go for two ups seven late thirty six to twenty nine. Bainbridge DeWeese has this to say about that, similar to Chrissy's question last week about

Russell Wilson. Do the analytics take into account that Derrick Henry is on the other team. I think this is Brainbridge talking. I think Romeo knew that if the Titans did get the touchdown, the two point would be much higher than fifty fifty. That's an interesting tweet. My response, I'm curious what yours would be, Chrissy. My my response is, I think we're giving Romeo too much credit with that. Bainbridge, I know we mentioned him last. I think it was

last week on this show. It might have been two weeks ago. I had a pretty observant tweet in that regard to so that that's a pretty good one. But I still think, yeah, listen, we're not ready to score the two yet, he's still got to go down and get a touchdown in the first place. That's right, you know. I'm still yeah, yeah, we we aren't in a position we're not automatically giving them six and then telling them

to go for two. And Romeo would have said that because he was questioned on this after the game and he said, no, I was just trying to put him away basically, right, if you get to if you get it to nine, you know, game set, match. Um, he would have said. On top of that, at that moment, he would have said, like, well, because I also thought that, you know, Derrick Henry blah blah blah more than fifty on two points. But it is an interesting tweet, Bainbridge,

and we thank you for bringing that up. Um, all right, give me the matchup. I won't we won't have time because we're gonna go to break. But what are the matchups that are left. Jaguars at the Chargers, Steelers at the Titans, Bears at the Rams on Monday night. That's like, there's a couple of good ones at the end there, including a battle of undefeateds between the Steelers and the Titans. All right, we'll guess those lines and we'll talk about what we like so far. I'm thinking Arizona. Oh, let's

see here, Arizona and San Francisco. I think I like the best. Will will review all of it, Chris, He'll give what he likes. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander Jason. I have a confession to make, and I know that everybody's been waiting for this confession for me. I love that Justin Bieber song on Saturday Night Live. I think I like Justin Bieber, but it's more Chance the Rapper. I think that wrote that song Holy that he performed on Saturday Night Live. It's awesome.

I'm gonna have to find it. Reminds me a chance the Rappers us on Day Candy. I'm telling you, man, good song. Chrissie. What do you know about Justin Bieber? Anything? Nothing? Nothing. I'm not sure you and I could be friends anymore. I thought that might have some impact. Do you think of all the things that have gone on in this last week, that would be the thing that would send it over that the it's awesome. Alright, three board games to get to what you got. We all had a

good laugh. Yeah, Jaguars at the Chargers. Jaguars are one in five. Jaguars lose to the Allions. As we talked about, thirty four to sixteen minshoot four to forty three, one touchdown, one pick, he was sacked once, Keelan Cole six catches for one forty three. Jaguars only had forty four rushing yards, only had the ball for twenty four oh three. It's their worst start. That's saying something with the jack Wars. One in five is the Jaguars worst start since they've

allowed thirty plus points in five straight games? Is that good? And they're playing the Charges? Charges coming off a by I'll say Chargers, who are one in four of themselves, by the way, but we think of them quite differently because they probably should have beaten the Saints, so they should have beaten the Buccaneers. I'll say Chargers minus seven. Am I low? You are low? It's anywhere from seven

and a half to eight and a half. I'm gonna be at the eight and a half, you know, And I know the Charges lost a couple of close games, But justin Herbert, I think is just ready to explode. And I think Jacksonville is ready to sink like a rock the way we kind of thought they were in the off season, and we let that first game out of the blocks. We let that kind of change our opinion on them. Uh. You know, the only reason when we're talking about them more is because of the Jets

being as bad as they are. But I think Jacksonville was in a race to the bottom. They'll probably finished second of the Jets, but they're in a race to the bottom. And I think this Charger team, you know, I question they're coaching at times, but not the talent, and I think this is the kind of game where they could just absolutely explode, and I think they will. Uh. Like I said, I see it anywhere from seven a half to eight and a half. I'm using the eight

and a half. I like the highest number of possible. Yeah, And you know what, you know how usually you often say I like your number better than than this one. I like your better number than mine. As soon as it came out of my mouth, I was like, I think I'm low because I think you're right. It should be more than seven. So eight and a half from Christie Chargers verus Jacksonville. All right, next, Okay, a good one,

maybe the best game of the week. Steelers at the Titans five and oh versus five and oh Big Ben in the Steelers route of the Browns yesterday, fourteen of twenty two for one sixty two, one touchdown. Note Pixie was sacked twice. James Conner carries one on one in a touchdown. Claypool four for seventy four, also carried one in the end zone on the ground. James Washington four for six eight a touchdown. Bad news for the Steelers though with Devin Bush their standout line yeah, feared to

have a significant knee injury. We will get the official update here today And as far as Tennessee, we talked about it ad nauseum, not only the Romeo Crenell decision to go for two up thirty six to twenty nine, but prior to that, Mike Vrabel with an intentional twelve men on the field to basically save his team forty seconds, so fourth and goal at the one and then fourth and goal at the one. Uh. Again, we talked about

a Houston decides to go for it. That was the proper move with one fifty three left Watson to Cook's touchdown, but then they failed to get the two point conversion. Eleven place seventies six yard, one minute, forty one second drive for the Titans that ended with tanneh Hill to Brown seven yard score. They win the coin flipp in overtime because of course they do, and then on the second play tanne Hill to Henry fifty three yards four plays later, Henry crashes in from the five ballgame forty

to thirty six. Fourth win this season by the Titans,

Chrissy by six points or fewer. They're living right. Tannehill thirty of forty one for three sixty four, four touchdowns, one pick, two sacks, Henry twenty two for two twelve and two touchdowns and then two catches for fifty two included in that two d twelve yards rushing a ninety four yards signature Derrick Henry touchdown scamper with nine thirty seven left in the fourth quarter to put Tennessee up twenty seven and twenty three in what was a topsy

turvy fourth quarter. Anthony Firkser eight catches for one thirteen and touchdown six hundred and one total yards of offense for the Titans. It's a franchise record, including to sixty three on the ground. You know, Houston had four twelve and they got out gained by almost two hundred yards. It's the second five and oh starting franchise history for the Titans. Two thousand eight was the last time. They also may have some bad news. We have that tweet

Jason Dewey Taylor Luanne uh, their standout left tackle. He uh could have a major, major injury as well. Here it is from Chris Mortenson, the mort Report Titans starting left tackle Taylor Win. We'll have an m R I on Monday morning to determine if he indeed suffered to torn a c L that team physicians diagnosed early in the Titans Texans game, as Jay Glazer reported earlier this evening. This is from More yesterday. So um wins for both the Steelers and the Titans, but both teams might have

lost somebody key. I'll tell you, I don't know how you. I never have guessed pick ums this year, but this is kind of a pick um to me. I'll say, pick them. Well, I like your number better. I see it, I see the Pittsburgh I see Pittsburgh favorite anywhere from one and a half to two and a half. I gotta tell you, I my numbers, come to pick them myself, and uh, I'm sure all you're from the Black and

goal out there. Tell me the power of negative thinking. Chris, thanks a lot, you know, but think this game is a real legitimate pick. That that's a big injury though it left tackle for the Titans because you know they're gonna they're gonna have to pressure Tannehill and they're gonna have to obviously stop their wrong with Derrick Henry. I made a little note here for guys. Some of you

young guys out there might not remember Eric Dickerson. Uh, kind of a forgotten running back, but a guy who had two thousand yards one year, you know, a Hall of Fame running back. Derrick Henry reminds me a little bit of Eric Dickerson. So if you want to get some film equips that Eric Dickerson, go take a look

at him. I'm not ready to put Henry above Dickerson yet, but it's kind of that style of the running back and I'm both are terrific, but I uh this to me to pick the games, So I'm gonna open one and a half just because I see it as high as two and a half out there, So I'm gonna open one and a half. And they'll probably been to the Steelers and puts some come Sunday morning, I'm sure I'll be rooting for the Steelers, But money wise, I think this game should be a pick. I hope people

haven't forgotten about Eric Dickerson. But you know what, that's a great comparison. Derrick Henry is a bigger version of Dickerson in the sense that they both ran upright right. They both ran up tall and have a surprisingly unbelievable north south speed. Not not guys who will who go in different directions quickly, but when they get out in the field and you're like, oh, this guy will get caught. And it was amazing how they would never get caught.

Both of these guys. You're like, how is Derrick Henry going to get to the house at that size? It was the same with Dickerson, except for that time that Darryl Green ran him down, But he ran down everybody, all right. One more, what do you got? Bears at the Rams? Bears at the Rams five and one, Verses

four and two. The Bears are five and one. Payer Tiger, I guess, but man, there's still five and one folds yesterday and the win against the Panthers twenty three or thirty nine, one touchdown to pick sacked zero times, only two d sixty one total yards of offense for the Bears, UH ten penalties for ninety two yards. They got to clean that up, but they were plus two in turnovers and at five and one, that's the best start for the Chicago Bears. Brent Musburger said it on our podcast

on the megapod the other day. He was like, because a couple of us had the Panthers, he was like, be aware of that Bears defense. And he did it in that Brent voice, so it had much more gravitas than it otherwise would have the Rams yesterday lose. As we mentioned to the to the Niners golf nineteen thirty eight,

two touchdowns a pick, uh sacked zero times. But again when they were down twenty one to nine, they were knocking at the door and then he threw that pick on fourth down, and that was kind of it for the Rams. That was their most credible chance in that ball game yesterday. I will say the Rams will be favored here though for all the reasons we stated about the Bears time and time again, how so many of those wins could have just as easily been lost as

though not yesterday. So I'll say the Rams, and I'll make it as high as six. How about that it's five and a half and six a little more five and a half. I like the five and a half a little better. The total here we're looking at his forty six, which a decade ago would have been a high total. Now it's one of the lowest totals on the board for the Sunday's games. I'm trying to think. I think it's the second lowest total. Uh So I

think that this should be a pretty close game. So I'm gonna stick with the five and a half here. But I you know, what Brent says is true that bare defense is really really good now the Rams. I know you've talked a couple of times about that interception in the end zone. That kid for San Francisco actually had his name. I know he's bounced around a little bit. He made an unbelievable play. That was a great interception.

So I mean, I'm the one to not fallt Golf because he should have read the defense a little bit better. But that kid made a fantastic play. But it was fourth down. I mean, golf had to throw the ball in the end zone. I mean, you know, no sense in uh throwing it away or anything else, and he didn't have a safe place to go. But I think the Rams still look pretty good. I think they do. But I like the lower number here just because I

think it's going to be a fairly low scoring game. Yeah, I think you're talking about Jason Varette also the Niners. That's who it was, Jason Jason Barrett. I'm sorry, Yeah, no, that's okay. So what I like best in the end is I think I like San Francisco at New England. What was your number there again? Three? Yeah, I think I like, if you give me the hook, I like San Francisco. I think I like Arizona against Seattle. And you know what, Chrissie, if Buffaloes only ten against the Jets,

I may lay the ten. How about you? Well, what's the leven in my place? I can tell you that I like Carolina getting over seven. I like San Francisco and we're going to head to head. I like Seattle over Abo. That's why we do this. Chrissie, thank you as always, I appreciate it, my pleasure. Chris Andrew's, everybody at Andrews Sports, thanks for listening. Good luck with all

your bets, Enjoy the double header and football tonight. From all of us at BESA, the Sports Betting Network book Dababa ba baba bot ban dababaa baba