Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 12

pretty rocking, Cherry, you had the one survivor pick. I think that uh, Chargers not. Yeah, that was not stressful. But three days from now is Thanksgiving, and so as I've said from the beginning, it's all great planning till Thanksgiving. Uh, and then it's all great planning after that. But Thanksgiving itself total winging a prayer. We'll get to that. Well, it's everything that happened in the NFL yesterday. This is guessing lines for week twelve. True, would you will start

us radio show? Let's bring in the star of the show. He runs the South Put South Point rather Hotel casino sports book. Here. The director of that sports book at Andrew's Sports is where you can find him on Twitter, the author of Then One Day It's My Mish book. Chrissie andrews, how you doing, Chris? I'm doing great, Yo. How are you? I'm doing well. You had a good weekend from a book's perspective, did you? We had? We have pretty good Saturday, and we had a great Sunday.

I can't great Sunday. Well, good for you, he says, derisively. Good for you. Um, we will, I always say, never cry. We will hardly do that. Um. All right, we'll get into everything from yesterday. We'll get in everything moving forward. We'll getting everything from yesterday as we discuss what's going on for those just landing on this show for the first time. I have what I typically do is I get in a cocoon. I don't. I don't know any of the lines. I guess what I think they will be.

Chrissie tells us what he's going post at the end of the show, and within that exercise we extract value. But Chris, let me start today by saying, I kind of know about the three Thanksgiving Games because of the Circus Survivor contest. Right, everybody's been talking about it for a week, so I kind of know that these are round pickcoms, but I'll tell you kind of exactly where I think they'll be. But just so everybody knows, for these three games, I kind of already have a sense.

Let us begin with the first of the three Thanksgiving games, sir, And what a horrible game this Israel and she's to start Thanksgiving Houston at Detroit. Yeah, and Houston was the one that that got me the most last week. Remember a week ago, I was like, how is how is Houston a pickom or or favorite? When we did this Monday morning, And it only took, you know, took less than twenty four hours for it to come to my

guests of New England minus two and a half. But in the end, Houston wins it out right, twenty seven to twenty uh beat the Patriots. Deshaun Watson eighteen of twenty three for two forty one two touchdowns, five for thirty three on the ground uh at a touchdown run where he just destroyed a couple of Patriots defenders. By the way, those were his first half stats. Pardon me. Eighteen for twenty three for two forty one for two touchdowns,

five thirty four touchdown in the first half. Houston had a season high two hundred seventy four yards in the

first half. All but three of those yards came from Watson himself, as he threw for two forty one and added the thirty rushing for the game thirty seven three forty four, two touchdowns, no picks, wasn't sacked now him not being sacked his news six carries for thirty six in that touchdown, first one of the season for the Texans against the team other than Jacksonville or in Romeo Cornella. Rare victory by a former Belichick assistant against his former boss.

Texans NFL worst run defense held the Patriots to eighty six yards rushing after they entered the game, averaging a hundred sixty one point one yards a game. Randall Cobb did get injured, injured a foot on the touchdown, didn't return, Kenny Stills injured a leg in the first half, didn't return. And then there's Detroit. Detroit gets blanked by Carolina twenty

to nothing. Stafford was eighteen for thirty three, one seventy eight, no touchdowns, no picks, sacked five times played despite a thumb injury that prevented him from taking a snap under center all week. They were without the Lions were DeAndre Swift, Kenny Golladay, and Danny Amendola. They only had ten first downs Chris there were only three or fourteen on third downs,

one of three on four. Caroline is d which was allowing opponents to convert a season high fifty five point three percent of third down opportunities, crushed him on third downs again, three for fourteen, only a hundred eighty five total yards, only forty yards rushing for the Lions out possessed by Carolina thirty sixty eight to twenty three twelve blanked for the first time since October eighteenth, two thousand nine, Stafford's rookie season, though he didn't play in that game.

So I listen, you know how I am about Houston in this market. I tend to underrate them every week. So I would have had this despite everything that happened yesterday. I would have this game as a pick them. But I'm gonna guess Houston is about a point and a half favorite. And before you go, because we got to hit the stay should I d here? Let's Jason is waving at me. Uh, let's just say that on the Uh, this is the first of three games one is going to have to have to navigate for survivor, and God

help us all skill, Alexander. It's Chris Andrews. This is guessing lines for Week twelve in the National Football League. So I'll say Houston minus one and a half. Okay, first one in the day. You know, I like your number better. Uh, it's more like two and a half. I see a lot of two and a half the juice on the favorite. I see one three juice on the dog. Um yeah, I like my First of all, let me just say this a couple of things. First of all, my power ratings are just a place to start.

Number one. Number two. I'm not giving anybody anything for home field, even though home Field kind of showed up yesterday. Uh my, my power ratings come to one and a half. However, you know, the Lions look so in theft on offense. I mean that that's one of the worst I've seen all year. I mean they got shut out, you know, by a team it's not that great on defense. Um. So, like I said, my power rams come to one and a half. You know, I think I know I am gonna openness two and a half, but I'd be very,

very pretty careful. You know, there's one of these trends systems that I look at. I mean, not any of them because most of my make are datamining. But the one that I do look at is when you go from home dog for a road favorite. That's that second game the road favorite very very rarely coming. I'm not never, it's it's in the high sixties, like about sixty eight percent if you're a bet against. So I'm very I'm

leary about that. Um. You know, Stafford played the whole game, but it's come was hurting and he didn't have any help on offense at all. Defense played. Okay, I guess um it's I am gonna open to an half. I think the public will beyond the Texans, and I'd be very I'd tread very very carefully here. Yeah. And like I said, Chris, like I only make it one and a half because I figured Recencly will make it one and a half. But to me this is just a

straight pick them too, I mean, because we don't agree. Again, they were without Swift Gola day and Amundola yesterday, so that matters Obviously we'll check on their status as the Thursday game approaches. All three of those guys. Washington at Dallas is the second one. I know this because it's always that and this is the greatest rivalry in sports, So you don't even have to tell me that this is the next one. I know that this is the

next one. Washington beat Cincinnati yesterday. Obviously, the big headline there is that Joe Burrow h a c l out for the year. Gruesome injury. Um. They freeze framed it on on red zone yesterday and it was like, stops, we please take this off the screen. It was brutal, Lord, poor Joe Burrow. It was awful. But Washington wins. Alex Smith, speaking of you know, grewsome leg injuries. He certainly knows about that. Seventeen for five, one sixty six, one touchdown,

one pick, sack twice. Terry McLaurin is always filling up a statute. Five eighty four Dallas breaking a four game losing streak, beating Minnesota Dalton thirty two for two oh three, three touchdowns, one pick, He was sacked once, and Zeke with his first one hundred yard rushing game of the season. Took eleven weeks. He had twenty one carries for a hundred and three yards. UM Washington to Dallas, I'll say Dallas minus two and a half. Uh, you're right on

it is two and a half. I see some twon half juice on the favorite that maybe a couple threes juice on the dog. My power ratings once again can ne one. But I think I have to look at this a little more closely. Uh. Hang, I sent me the beginning. I think Andy Dalton will do really well in this offense, you know, and I mean, yeah, they're gonna miss Dak Prescott for sure, but and Dalton, I think we'll be able to distribute the ball to you know what is some pretty good offensive talent. Other defense

are still horrible. He's not gonna do anything to help their defense that maybe keep them off the field a little bit and having in better field position over the course of the game. But I think Andy Dalton is pretty good here and UM in a good spot with this team if he stays healthy, and there's no reason to think he's not going to So I am opening

two and a half. I said, my tire ring has come a little lower, but I'm gonna have to look at them again, because I think Dalton does elevate this team, probably a little bit more than I gave him credit for him which had already given him quite a bit of credit. So I think to an absolutely good place to start here. Yeah, I think that's uh, that's probably where it should be. But once again, for survivor purposes,

complete winging, a prayer, complete prayer, uh. The winner of the game, assuming there's a winner, and out of tie. The winner of this game, by the way, ties would eliminate both Survivor's side, But the winner of this game, if there is a winner, will lead the NFC East at least temporarily for at least three days at four and seven. How about that? All right? The third game on Thanksgiving it again for those who missed the opener.

I kind of know again because of all the survivor talk last week, where these lines are generally for the Thanksgiving games. Third one is Ravens at the Steelers. Now, this has the potential, and I do mean potential, to be the best game on Thanksgiving, But after the Ravens yesterday, who knows, Baltimore loses to Tennessee. About the only thing I got right from an A T. S perspective yesterday

lose to Tennessee thirty to twenty four in overtime. Lamar Jackson seventeen six, one touchdown, one pick, sack once thirteen carries for fifty one On the ground. Baltimore was good on third downs, they were nine of fifteen, but they trailed. Excuse me, Tennessee rather trailed early in the third quarter and sixteen late in regulation before launching a ninety yard drive which was all about Derrick Henry and some nice

throws from Ryan Tannehill mixed in between. On third down from the Baltimore fourteen, A. J. Brown caught a short pass on the right side, broke four tackles before scoring while standing up with two eighteen left, just an unbelievable play by Brown. Uh Tannehill then ran in. The conversion

was twenty four to twenty one. Lamar drives the Ravens to the ten before Tucker kicks at twenty nine yard or with fifteen seconds left to force overtime, and then Henry twenty nine yards scamper with five twenty one left and overtime to cap the victory again thirty to twenty four. Pittsburgh tennan oh first time in franchise history. And don't you know it, Christy is a guy who grew up on the Steelers. Big Ben was thirty two of forty six yesterday in the h Steelers win against Jacksonville seven

to three. You win easily covering the ten and a half point closing line. He was thirty two or forty six or two sixty seven, two touchdowns, one pick, no no sex. But I will tell you this, watching as much of this game as I did, big Ben had about five jaw dropping passes that were just unbelievably placed. I have never seen this guy play better than he is right now. Deonte Johnson twelve for one eleven that

was his primary target. Uh though Claypool got another score and their plus three in turnovers the Steelers warning that game. That's usually all you need to know. Four turnovers for Jacksonville. I believe it was all for Jake Luton picks. It was indeed, UM thirty thirty one in time of possession over Jacksonville. Juju appeared to tweak his foot though while stepping on an official's yellow flag. Did you see that when he was running off the field, sort of jogging

off the field in the fourth quarter. That was weird. Had never seen that before. So we'll check on that through the week. But it's Baltimore at Pittsburgh, and I'll just say it's Pittsburgh minus three. Figuring that after yesterday, that's probable where it's locked in. Well, that's been where been locked in for years when these two teams faced each other. There's been a couple of aberrations. Certainly, once again, I see three and a half, um, and I don't

like your number better in this case. In fact, my power ratings come the four and a half in this game. I'm not sure where the public is gonna go here, because I know a lot of guys it's an automatic take when these two teams playing, it's hanging over three. But I gotta tell you it looked four. The last five games the Patriots have not played well. Now they have a win in there. Who did they beat? Uh? They beat somebody, Dad, Baltimore be the Eagles, Baltimore, Yes, Baltimore, Baltimore.

Uh they have They beat the Eagles thirty eight, So I don't give them too much credit for that other than that. So the beat the Eagles lost to the Dealers beat the Colts, which was a you know, good game, very good performance. Lots of the Patriots, loss of the Titans. I mean right now, I mean, I think this team is dropping. I think people made me figured out Jackson as good as a player he is. They figured out the offense and what those guys are trying to do. Um,

you know hard Bough. Uh. You know I've always I've sunk in his praises every since, ever since we've been on this show, Gil, But you know, it was just kind of a weird thing with the half of the game. He wouldn't shake hands. Uh. And there's just some weird stuff going on right now with with this team, and uh, I think they're coming into a situation, you know, just

just not a good spot. I mean, I like the Steelers here, and you know, I know all my biases and all that, but I'm telling you, I keep my power ratings is unbiased as possible. And they come to four and a half, and I think that's a more legitimate number. I like the Steelers here, how open three and a half? If I see it, I see it three and a half? Would you some the dog? I see a couple of threes juice on the favorite, so they'll probably take the three and a half off me,

at least initially. Yeah, I have a feeling. Comes Thursday night, I'm probably gonna need to raise this because I think the public will come back in on the speelers. Do you have a good sense of that kind of stuff? You would know? Um. The tension between Vrabel and Harball, I guess started before the game when the Titans I guessed, had had a sort of impromptu or maybe it wasn't so impromptu meeting on the center of the field, and I guess Harbaugh objected to that, and that's where the

words started. Even before the game started. I didn't know that he refused to shake his hand at the end of the game. So do you agree with me? By the way, about Big Ben? Like, there are some passes he throws, like third down conversions to the sidelines, let alone the touchdown passes, But some of those third down conversions, there is one spot you can put that football, and he's so good that we take it for granted and the announcers don't even react to it. I'm like, you know, difficult,

that pass was right there. I've never seen him play better than this. You know, there's accuracy is super important. Processing. I think it is really important and right now, uh, you know, I put him in there with Rogers my homes as far as processing quickly and delivering the ball with accuracy. And if you could do that consistently in the NFL, you know, you have a hell of an offense. I'm still a little worried about their their running game. I don't think it's very good. You know, the defense

I think looks fantastic. But I mean, right now, this is a This is a really really good team with a lot of balance. I like that other than the running game, and their offense relies on Big Ben. But you know, so far, so good as far as that goes. And I think their defense is really just terrific, and uh, you know, I think they deserve to be more than a Carena point favorite in this spot. So I do like this Stealers. Hey, Chris, what do you think about

Big Ben for m v P? I know he does, and uh, how can he not be in the conversation? Thank you? I mean, I don't know who's gonna win it. You know, he has to be in the conversation absolutely, I mean the teams tending up and he's playing fantastic and you know, I don't know, Oh, Mahomes, Mahomes and Rogers Rogers. I would say it's a three person conversation. Yeah, I think it's more a Tomlin. Yeah, I think it's

more a Mike Tomlin thing. But further they go, by the way, do you think last thing about the Steelers, because we have a there's a there's a prop in some spots, will they go sixteen? And know? Do you think they will care about that late in the season if they have a cushion. Let's say they're two games clear of Kansas City, which is a big if, but let's just say they are and they got nothing to play for. Do you think they'll care about sixteen and no?

Knowing what you know about these guys, yeah, I think don't care about Okay, I think they care more about the boy interesting, Okay, let's do one on Saturday, Chris, just are these guys are uper competitives? Man? And uh yeah, because first of all, what's that sixteen game against Cleveland? Yeah? Do you think they're gonna be up for that to get to beat Cleveland? To be sixteen? And oh, they would love. It could be a knockout game and potentially

knockout Cleveland. That's a possible scenario as well. But right now, as long as the Chiefs are one game back though, you know, everything counts, let's do one on Sunday, real quick, Chris, stay on schedule here now we're flying by the way. Before we go any further. Yeah, before we go any further, Baltimore right now would be out of the playoffs. That's

how low they sunk. Geez that Okay, there's another good game, Raiders at the Falcons Raiders last night, Man Derek Carr and the Raiders looked really good against the Chiefs for the second time obviously one the first time yesterday. Did not quite get the win, lost thirty five to thirty one, but absolutely could have won this football game if Patrick

Mahomes wasn't a cheat code. Complete cheat code. This guy Mahomes throwing at twenty two yard touchdown past Travis Kelsey twenty eight seconds to play Chiefs, avenging their only loss

of the season. Uh, they only needed seventy five seconds to go seventy five yards for another score, with Mahomes going six of seven on the drive for for that last score, I should say with Mahomes going six of seven on the drive, but Derek Carr was twenty three of thirty one for two seventy five, three touchdowns, one pick, he wasn't sacked, and the Raiders played without starters Corey

Littleton in Cleveland Ferrell. And then there's Atlanta. Atlanta gets crushed by New Orleans who had Taysom Hill at quarterback. Matt Ryan was just it was just a dreadful game for them. They were Ryan was nineteen of thirty seven for two thirty two, no picks, excuse me, no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked eight times, eight three of which were from Cameron Jordans. By Cameron Jordan's they were two of fourteen on third downs, where the Falcons two

of three on fourth. But two hundred forty eight total yards that's it against New Orleans only fifty two rushing. I'll say the Raiders minus three and a half. Uh yeah, that's exactly what my power ratings come two. But the number is three, and in this case I like the three better. Once again, we have another one of these situations. I think there's only two this week. You go from

a road home underdog to a road phases, it's the Raiders. So, like I said, there's not too many of those trends that that I buy in, so I think most of them are a bunch of crap. But that's one that I do look at and over the years at the high percentage. So that's the Raiders go from home dog road favorite. You know, I think Atlanta above the three. I would I would take Atlanta above the three, but I'm gonna open it three and that's pretty much what

I see everywhere. You know, despite that extra hook, I'm not exactly running to the counter to beout the Falcons. Raiders are seven and three against the spread. Raiders seven and three against the spread. For those who who believe in such things, it's all brought you by bet MGM S. By the way, you know, go ahead, Oh, I was gonna interrupt real quick. Derrek Carr at the highest QBR in the league over the weekend, the nine. He was awesome. And by the way, there's a couple dropped passes could

have gone even better for the Raiders yesterday. All right, give me a game here, I'll do the review here and we'll get your I'll give you my guests, and then we'll go to break what's next here, Cardinals at the Patriots, Cardinals at the Patriots. Oh my uh. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will have extra rest here off

their Thursday night loss to the Seahawks. Again, very strange sequence at the end of that game on Thursday night where the Cardinals matriculated the ball down the field and then with plenty of time, just decided to keep heaving it into the end zone. Kyler Murray was twenty nine forty two with to sixty nine, two touchdowns, no picksy we sacked three times. They had ten penalties for one fifteen in that game. They lose by a touchdown, could have could have tried to tie it there at the end,

but again a very strange sequence at the end. And then New England, as we already discussed, lose to Houston. Cam was twenty six of forty for three sixty five, one touchdown, note picks. He was sacked twice. Bird was his number one target six for one thirty two and

a touchdown, first time since two thousand nine. With that loss, that the Patriots will have at least six losses in a regular season, and that season win total of under nine and a half, right on the cusp of being grade at a winner at least cashing as a winner, being graded at the end of the season. Arizona at New England, I'll say, Arizona minus four. As we go to break, Chris, you will tell me what he's gonna post coming back on a numbers game at Visa these

sports betting network. Alright, Arizona at New England. I said, Arizona minus four, Chris Gilly, Yeah, gave FeliCa is gonna cash another bet? I like your number better. Um, I was just I was just looking at college basketbax h. I gotta get backed at my football huge schedule on Wednesday. By the way, yes, so yeah, so that Visa product. You can't live without that to start proceed. Okay, I'm sorry the plug there, Okay, the Cardinals at the Patriots.

What you said? What I said minus four? Yeah, okay, my power ratings come the four and a half. The number out there is two and a half with I don't see any threes, but two and a half with some modest juice on a favorite like a dollar fifteen, dollar, twenty ten, fifteen and twenty Yeah, I mean, this team has just dropped quite a bit. And the Cardinals listen, you know, as well as anyone. I was very slow to come around on this team, you know, a quarterback

and coach both um. But this is a team that's really playing well. And I mean this is a very legitimate team. And the New England team that's you know, I know, they're dropping like a rock. And I don't we have the Bilichick factor. And I think, you know, for handicappers, they actually could be kind of productive because you're looking at the past more than you're looking at the out and the now is this team is not very good. And uh, I think I'm gonna probably open three,

take a bet, which you know won't take long. Like Rocks, he always says, moving game from doing after three and see what kind of action you create. But I think I'm gonna open three and take a bet, and I think by the end of the week I'll be back to three. Three Cardinals are three Patriots. I'm sorry, like I'm I'm looking at whose favoring as the Cardinals. Cardinals are favored by three. Sorry Cardinals, Cardinals, are you right here? Yeah?

That my numbers come to four and as I'm surprised that there's stuff south of three out there, I really am. But yeah, I don't think it will last. Okay, what's next? The first place? John know they're in second place. I'm sorry, second place New York Giants against the Bengals. By the way, everybody's playing this week right Thanksgiving? Usually everybody plays Giants at Bengals. How many late games do we have, Jason,

how many afternoon games? It's three afternoon games, but we've got the three on thanks Yeah, okay, Giant said Bengals. Oh boy, well you know again, if you got by Thanksgiving for survivor purposes, the Bengals might have been an interesting contrary and sort of survivor play no longer. Joe Burrow out of the game yesterday, as we mentioned with Washington, and it was just everybody around football just uh, poor Joe Burrow. It's just uh. He was good about it though.

He tweeted thanks for all the love. Can't get rid of me that easy, See you next year. So he knew immediately it was serious, and it was based on the pictures leg got contorted Jonathan Allen. Another skin was in there, one guy on top, one guy on the bottom. Burrow was twenty two of thirty four for two oh three, one touchdown, one pick. He was not sacked until that one. I guess that was I guess he got rid of

the ball. Was that? Why that wasn't a sect? Ryan Finley came in three of ten for thirty couldn't have been worse, no touchdowns, one pick, He was sat four times. The Bengals were only three of thirteen on third downs, they were oh for two on fourth and the Giants had to buy So Giants, as you mentioned, like with Washington and Dallas just a half game behind Philadelphia in the NFC East, and again who want you do not

want to win this division? You'll end up with that best the nineteenth pick in the draft as opposed to what will probably be a top tenor. But the Giants, now with his injury, I guess will be like there'll be more than a three point favorite. I think, won't they be like a four point favorite? Here? Uh, it's more like five and a half had six s? I do see. I see a couple of four and a halfs. I see actually only one six. But then you know, like Chris so big store, uh four and a half

five and a half five six. I lowered my power rating on the Bengals. I think they lowered him four and a half points. Finley, I mean, he hasn't played much. When he has played, he hasn't played that well. His college numbers are like okay, uh, but I don't think. I don't think this kid's an NFL starting quarterback. The Giants are playing well, They're playing better and better, and I think from earlier in the season the Giants would be a six point road favorite over anybody. Was just

you know, somebody would lock you up. But that's what my numbers come to. And I do see six, like I said at Chris, and I'm gonna open six because uh, you know, I just you know, listen, I just don't know how how low to adjust the Bengals because I think I think Burrow was terrific. I really do. And his numbers aren't fantastic, but he this kid is going to be a legit corterback. I hope this injury isn't too bad. That would be the only they stopped him. He I mean, I think this kid very very good.

He was by any measure, he was, by any measure, having a spectacular rookie season. But they didn't TechEd him shoddy offensive line and you know this is hardly I mean, look, did you do expect someone to tear the ra c l and in a horrible injury? No? But could you have expected him to get injured in some way? Yeah, I mean based on the base on how many dropbacks. I mean, they just they're going nowhere, and they just wanted to throw the ball around the yard behind the

shoddy offensive line all season long. So you kind of knew that something like this could happen, and it finally did. By the way Ryan Finley, of course, we'll get a week to prepare. But to your point about the Giants, if you really like dissect their games, they gave the Steelers a fight week one before Daniel Jones had a couple of killer turnovers. They held the Rams to seventeen in a road game. They lost to deck In the

Cowboys by three. They lost up Philly by one in a game they should have won, lost to Tampa by two. Right there, They might be the best team in the NFC East. I hate to say it, they really might be because the Eagles are chronic, you know, letter downers every week that lets you down most overrated team in the NFL, I said to Matt Brown. And I'm not poking at Matt Brown because I felt the same way, even though I didn't play it, because he liked the case for Philadelphia this week, and I did say to

them at least I'm so glad I brought up. I go, if if the Eagles don't win here, and we'll get to the Eagles in a minute, well, will this be the proverbial I will never bet on this team again kind of thing? And that's I think where they stand right now. But anyway, Giants, what are you putting it up at Chris against the Bengals. We're halfway through these games, if my count is right or no, we're not quite halfway.

Were six through. I don't like anything yet but Arizona because I am not rushing to bet the Bengals here either. We'll come back. Uh we're guessing lines week twelve and look back to week eleven, coming back right here in the numbers game at Visa these Sports Betting Network, looking up at the screens here. The American Music Awards were on last night. Jason. Apparently, I used to, uh just love those award shows as a kid, I I didn't know.

Are they still relevant to people still watch these shows now? I don't know. The American Music Awards just seems like a thrived um awards ceremony to me. The Grammys at least makes sense, right, I don't know what the Music awards, but I don't know. I kind of associated American Music Awards as the Golden Globes and the Grammy's as the Oscars, and I think the more casual one is votes for the American Music Live What. I don't even know what it is. I don't know. I will say this about

NFL awards. I think yesterday kind of solidified a bunch of them. Roethlisberger for m v P. Right, Okay, stop it, sorry, um. I think Patrick Mahomes is your leader in the clubhouse, and everybody saw it on National Team again like he's he again. I'll say it to again, my buddy, he's the cheat code. He's so good, he's so much better

than everybody out there. It was never really a doubt that he was going to come back yesterday, but apparently it was his first time throwing a game winning touchdown with less than two minutes left in a game seconds all took him. And then of course Justin Herbert is now your runaway offensive rookie of the year with the Borough injury. And then Tomlin, as long as they don't lose a game, he's got to be the coach of the year, and with apology is to someone like Brian Flores,

like Tomlin's got to be that. I think yesterday Tomlin secured it. They could even probably lose a game or two and he'll still proball. I don't know if he's secured it right. If they lose a game or two, maybe it's a different story. But he's certainly again the leader in the clubhouse. I would think, Chrissy, you you agree with any of that or disagree with any of that. No, I agree with it, you know. And it's funny. I was having a conversation with some of my friends about Tomlin.

You know, though I'm not sure he'd be a great offensive coordinator or a great defensive coordinator, but he's the kind of guy. He brings out the best in everybody, including his coaches. And you know, we're saying to just look at Leibyan Bell, look at Antonio Brown, look at all this stuff. He's done. I mean, he knows how to get these guys all on the same page and

like I said, doing their very very best. And as you know, a coach or you know, a manager, you know, whatever kind of position of leadership that you're in, that's

really the main thing. And like I said, would he be a great coordinator and I kind of think he wouldn't be, you know, but in the position where he's at, he knows how to get the best out of these guys and uh, you know, for a long time, you know his well, I wouldn't say for a long time, but is the public regard and him as a coach who has been kind of up and down because he

definitely needs to work on some qualk management at times. Uh, but this guy's the hell of a coach and I think I think, I don't know one to say he's secured it or just lam dunk, but yeah, he's the leader right now for Coach of the Year. I think there's very little doubts you don't lose. That's probably a pretty logical thing to see. All right, let's do one more here. Oh up next, we got the Browns at the Jaguars. Browns at the Jaguars. That's not that pretty

big game. Seven and three Browns though one of nine Jaguars. Baker Mayfield yesterday again uh, just a very ho hum, not impressive line twelve of twenty two for two oh four note downs note picks, sack three times Nick Chubb, Uh twenty four. I think I lost a digit there, So over a hundred yards for Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt thirteen carries for eleven yards in a touchdown. By the way, Chub was twenty one fourteen. Just to be exact, Hunt was thirteen for eleven and a touchdown. But the Browns

were plus two in turnovers. Uh in there when yesterday Brown's beat the Eagles twenty two to seventeen in clement weather. Once again in Cleveland, plus two in turnovers. Olivier Vernon made up for Miles Garrett's absence due to COVID nineteen by getting three sacks and a safety. Cleveland Also first score of the game was a fifty yard pick six in the first half by second year linebacker uh Sioni Taki Taki Denzel Ward on the hit of Carson Wentz.

Carson Wentz didn't feel it coming. Denzel Ward hit him and he threw up a duck and it was seven and nothing Browns and then Jacksonville's we mentioned loses to the Steelers. Jake Luton sixteen for thirty seven for one fifty one, no touchdowns, four picks and two sacks. Terrell Edmunds and Minka Fitzpatrick responsible for two interceptions each only two six total yards for the Jags. They were minus

three in turnovers against the Steelers. As we mentioned, Jaguars now forty one and one hundred in Shad Khan's nine year tenure. For those who keep track of such things. Um, by the way, here's that. Can we throw that tweet up about people who bet the Eagles yesterday? This is this is the most appropriate tweet of the day. This is from Al d do make a ninety nine. I will never bet the Eagles again. I will never bet the Eagles again. I will never bet the Eagles again.

I will never bet the Eagles again. I didn't bet the Eagles. But that's how everybody should feel. Yeah, because on paper it's just like you gotta bet the Eagles here. No, no, you don't, because within one drive you're like, I can't believe I've bet on this team. Uh so Cleveland goes to seven and three. I mean the Browns are seven and three, Chris, I would imagine. Yeah, I don't buy it. I don't buy it. I think they're going to be

a serious fate here at some point. I don't know if it's against the Jaguars though, so also I put it in no man's land. I said, Cleveland minus five and a half at Jacksonville. H your way light, it's uh six and a half. I see some sevens with juice on the dog. I'm gonna open at seven. Not not for any great reason for the Jaguars, but already wanted a hundred member for years. We talked about how they took away your wise guy car. If you didn't bet on the Jaguars over week, well, it's, uh, you know,

here they are again. It's just a poorly run franchise. Now Cleveland. You know, it's one of those things I mentioned on this show before. Every one of these young quarterbacks are coming to the league. I'm rooting for every one of them. I'm not every week, obviously, because I need the other side half the time, but I want to lead to prosper and i'd like to see Baker

Mayfield just be a little bit better. But that being said, I do think they have a good roster and a really good coach and that means a lot, and I think that's gonna do wonders for Mayfield hopefully eventually, hopefully, But you know, a couple of his bad games weren't some really bad weather like yesterday and I think the week before. So I'm still holding not hope for me. So, by the way, my power rating has come to aide on this game, and I don't think I have the

Browns that high rated. Just the Jaguars return. It's what we thought they would be at the beginning of the season, which is the worst team in the NFL. Now that I have the Jets to thank for them not being regarded as such. But you know, Lewton doesn't look like the answer, and I'm about sure what the answer is with this team. But boy, you know, I know a lot of people are saying Trevor Lawrence sure doesn't want to get drafted by the Jets. Well, I don't think

getting drafted by Jacksonville would do it. I'm any good either, So you know, I just think it's a bad, bad team, bad franchise bad everything. I'm gonna open seven and I see where they go from there, because I want no part of the Jetwell, if you give it the full seven, I might, I might like Jacksonville here. Although with the Browns, you don't really know if it's the weather that was sort of muting their performances the last few weeks, or if or if the weather helped. I mean, I don't know.

By the way, Uh Shad con forty one and a hundred as an owner that ties former Saints owner John Meekom Jr. Is the second fastest to reach a hundred losses in an owner's tenure ship, the worst of all time, and he guesses Chris Trivia owner Trivia worst of all times, quickest to a hundred loss There you go, Hugh, Hugh cover House. That's exactly right, all right, Let's squeeze in one more here before the top of the air. One more. Uh.

Panthers at the Vikings. Panthers at the Vikings. Um. I don't want to say this out loud, but it's p J. Walker better than Teddy Bridgewater. P J Walker thirty four. Oh, he says no quickly. P J Walker twenty four of thirty four for two fifty eight yesterday, one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked once. The guy who led the XFL the last iteration of the XFL. In passing yards and touchdowns. P J Walker at a temple. Both of his picks, though,

were in the red zone. That was not good made the UH was made starter less than two hours before kickoff when Teddy Bear was officially ruled out with the knee injury. Panthers played without five starters, including Bridgewater, also Christian McCaffrey, left tackle, Russell Okung, right guard John Miller, and cornerback Dante Jackson. D J. Moore was p J

Walker's number one target seven for seven. Carolina's defense earned its first shutout since when they beat the Lions once again twenty to nothing yesterday to snap a five game losing streak at Minnesota. You said, uh, Minnesota cousins in their loss to the Cowboys twenty thirty three fourteen, three touchdowns, no picks, sack twice, Dalvin twenty seven for one fifteen and a touchdown, Feeling eight for one three and two touchdowns. Jefferson three for eighty six and a touchdown. How did

they lose? With all those numbers, that catch by Sidney Lamb was one of the best. Beautiful Cowboys beat the Vikings again, which knocked out a whole bunch of survivors. Man, that was my I was, uh, Minnesota minus three and a hook. I guess him a hook minus three and a half Minnesota. Who's who do you have Pennsylvana his quarterback?

I had Teddy Bridgewater penciled in his quarterback. Yeah, okay, I think if Teddy plays, I got it three because I think McCaffrey has got a good shot of coming back to So with McCaffrey and Teddy, I got the Viking Street without Teddy, so not letting McCaffrey andslunced me without McCaffrey, I mean, without Teddy, I got the Vikings six. So that's why I was very quick to jump in. No, PJ hard whatever, always meaning it's not better than Teddy Bridgewater.

He's just not Just look at all the numbers. I mean he was gifted great field position, zero pressure, blah blah blah the whole game. So no, I'm not that impressed with him. I am impressed with their coach. I think their coach is not a hell of a job. And you know, I've been a big teddy guy all the way. I see this number a little bit of four, but mostly four and a half. I see it off the board in a lot of places. I'm not putting this up because I think there's a big difference between

Bridgewater and what's his name? P J Harvey? Is p J Walker? Yes, yes, p J Harvey. Harvey is somebody I think it's fair or something. I don't know, but I'm I'm better than Jimmy. I can tell you that with the name p J. Harvey apparently is a singer, Yes, singer, songwriter, apparently nineties singers. She had like one or two songs in the earlier What did you say you think it would be with with with Bridgewater? What did you think you would put it that? Or with with p J?

How about three? No with p J? How much six with six with Pjix with you? So I have a three point different we'll come in in the two. Well we gotta go to break. Well, we'll finish the thought. More guessing lines and a Survivor update for real. Right here on Guessing Lines, our number two of a numbers game right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network series x UP, Channel two, O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Fubo. It's leaking game plus what's a little

denis the menace thing? I gotta going up hereously, this one's right in here up there, all right, let's get that little housekeeping it is, get Alexander. Jason conn is here as well. Jason, you mentioned here on the break a little scheduling quirk that the only that that you

said Caroline is playing. It's what game here? Game? They have not had a buy, they've they've read played, and Tampa Bay plays their eleventh tonight, So those are the only two teams that have a by left than In other words, it's interesting Rams at Tampa Bay to night. By the way, Tampa Bay anywhere between a four and a four and a half point favorite tonight, depending on what shop you're at. Should be a good game tonight,

at least on paper. Again, the quirky stat about the Rams tonight, eight of their nine second haves this season, the Rams defense has given up a maximum of three points. I really like to under in this game tonight. It's an incredible stat. Yeah, it's it's this new coordinate they brought in a new coordinator this year. Um, he's doing really good work. Well. The Rams known for defense right

like this this year? Yeah, Sean McVeigh. Obviously it was this was remember when they that game against Kansas City where they scored every like it was like fifties. Something's gonna is gonna change, gonna change football, And now they're known for their defense. Bucks four four and a half point favorites again tonight hosting the Rams for Monday Night Football. Um, all right, Chrissie. Chris Andrews is here, of course, ladies, gentlemen who are just tuning in right now, the director

of the sports book here the South Point Hotel Casino. Mysh, you were saying you want to say one more thing about Carolina. I'm just saying I'm not gonna put the game up on the board until i find out who's playing quarterback. Yeah, well that makes sense. So a lot of guys have it off, a lot of guys have it up. It's four and a half, a little bit of or people have it up. But I'm just gonna wait.

I think there's too much of a distance. Okay, we're halfway through the slate, full slate of games in week twelve, I got a lot to say about one game coming up, so I think we're gonna hit it in this segment. But what's next the Titans. That's that's the one. It's like. The weird thing is I'll get to the Colts there because the Colts is where it's funny with the Colts.

Last week, I did the whole autopsy on the third and ones and fourth and ones where there were eight different short yarded situations on third and fourth down for the Colts on Thursday night and Philip Rivers wouldn't do any of them. On the eighth they came in with the pinch, sneak and Jacoby Brisset. Today, I got another thing for them. But Titans. First of all, as we talked about, beat the Ravens in overtime thirty to twenty four, sixth win this season by seven points are fewer for Tennessee.

So there's seven and three. Six of the seven by seven points are fewer. Ryan Tannehill twenty thirty one for two fifty nine, two touchdowns, one pick, sack twice. Derrick Henry twenty eight for one thirty three in a touchdown again heading into the fourth quarter. Yesterday, Henry only had forty four yards on eighteen carries the Titans trail thirteen. He finished with one thirty three on twenty eight carries,

his six yard game of the season. Um also put him over a thousand yards for the third consecutive year. By the way, rambled for a hundred ninety five yards, as you may recall, to carry the Titans to a twenty to twelve upset of the top seeded Ravens in the a f C Divisional playoff back in January. Corey Davis was Tannahill's best target. Yesterday the biggest target five

for one thirteen. So Tennessee goes to seven and three tie to top the a f C South with their opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, who beat the Green Bay Packers yesterday in overtime, the only other overtime game, thirty four to thirty one, in a game that the Packers led twenty eight to fourteen at the half. And for those of us who had the Packers, we were feeling oh so good about it. But Indianapolis erased the fourteen point halftime deficit, failed to seal the win because of five holding calls

on its final drive and regulation. I want to get into that in a minute. But green Bay won the coin toss in overtime. UM after Rogers had the game tying field goal drive at the end of regulation, won the coin toss. But then Valdez Scantling, who had the big catch on that final regulation drive, he lost a fumble when he was hit by Julian Blackman on green

Bay second play of overtime. DeForest Buckner recovers four plays later, Rodrigo blanket ship through the uprights thirty nine yard or seven ten remaining in ot winner winner chicken dinner for the Colts. Philip rivers for thirty six for two eight, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once. Four total

yards of offense for the Colts. They did have eight penalties for one sixty yards, but it was those two turnovers plus two uh four turnovers for the Packers too for the Occults in this game, but that plus two was huge, including the turnover on the ensuing kickoff after the Colts had come all the way back to tie

the game at twenty eight. So that was the big deal. UM. And before we get into this, let me just remind folks once again that this is a numbers game at Visa, the Sports Betting Network series x M Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Phobos Slinging Game plus Skill Alexander. It's Chris Andrews guessing lines for week twelve in the NFL. It's our it's our Monday ritual where we try to extract value from our first look at the upcoming weekends lines. But that last sequence, let me

just say so. The Colts thing when they beat the Titans two games ago, they just Philip Rivers finally came out, came out of the I don't came out of the sneak closet where it was clearly apparent that okay, it's got to be in his contract or something. He doesn't sneak. It's what I've been saying on this show for years and on the podcast for years. He doesn't sneak. And that's going it's going to matter in a key, high

leverage moment in some postseason game. Well last night or yesterday. Rather, the Colts could have put this game away in regulation. And it was the weirdest sequence again. Five holding penalties down the stretch. I have them all listed in script, but I don't. I don't really have to go through them.

But from the to seventeen mark to seventeen left in the game, and the Packers had had three time outs at their disposal at this place, at this point in the game, and all all Indianapolis had to do was just sort of, you know, make them use their time outs, kick a field goal. Game was over, but they kept holding, they kept there's an offensive. There were five offensive holdings and the Packers didn't have to use any of their

time out. So finally they converted a fourth and four right under the two minute warning, the two minute warning, and then the Packers finally had to use the first time out, and they still kept holding and holding again, and so what ended up happening is that the they ended up with a like a second and thirty and a third and twenty six um Philip Rivers ends up

throwing a a they end up punting. Remember there was an earlier play where Philip Rivers looked like he might have fumbled and it went the and it went the other way, but it was it was a correct call that was in completion. But they end up punting up three in the end, and green Bay had only used had only used two time outs, and so they gave the Packers life where they shouldn't have been in the any was just this weirdest sequence at the end of that game. And so you just wonder again the Colts,

even in victory two weeks in a row. Now, even in victory, it could have been so much easier both times. Just wonder about this team. All I had to say, the Colts are probably a three point favorite here. I liked your number better. It's three and a half. Um boy, I don't know my numbers team to two and a half. Uh well, I don't know the three and alps that seems to I mean, he beat this team two weeks ago. And I know guys for many, many years, and I'm

not sure this holds up anymore. But they would always bet against the team that won the first matchup in these divisional games, and like I said, I'm not sure that holds up, and I don't have any numbers to prove one way or the other, but it seems to me like you're saying, I think the Colts manage either to win games with much more difficulty than they should have, and the Titans managed to win a lot of these close games, and I like the Titans in this spot.

Plus the three and a half, I think that's way too high. Like I said, my numbers come to two and a half, and there's always making my numbers. Last night, I just can't get the three. But this game, I just couldn't do it, you know. And here they are. They opened three and a half. I'm gonna put a market next to Tennessee for me. Yeah, if you're giving me the hook, I'm taking the Titans. I think that's

the second one. I like a lot um. And again, the Colts fans and Cults backers are gonna say, hey, Gil, they won both games, so stop talking about the Colts. But but they did. But like really, literally from the two seventeen mark to the one mark in regulation, I mean it's offensive holding enforced, offensive holding declined, illegal motion declined. Hold on, there's more, uh, hold on offensive holding. Uh, let's see another one. Offensive holding declined, on and on

and on. It's just like the Green Bay was like, we don't have to use any of these time outs because the clock keeps stopping. It was incredible to watch it. I got so many tweets after the game, like what did I just see. I was like, I don't know, dude, I don't know. But Indianapolis somehow manages the winning good for them. By the way, green Bay in the second half of that game, and we'll get to them momentarily.

But green Bay in the second half of that game, three points to turner to parton me, three points, two turnovers on six drives in the second half and overtime, So utter domination by that cold to d despite the ship at against from the offense. All right, I think I like Tennessee. If you're giving me the hook plus three and a half, I'll take Tennessee. What's next the Chargers at the Bills, Chargers survivor got it done for me? Uh? They beat the Jets. Beat the Jet by the way,

they only beat him thirty four to twenty eight. It should be pointed out the Chargers punned tie long, so there's there's seconds left in the game and it's thirty four to twenty six. By the way, the Chargers had to already withstand a drive from the Jets at the end of this game. The Charges, the Charges were crushing the Jets in this game, and somehow, so we're we started I started losing attention and going to every other game, and I'm like, okay, we got I got the survivor pick.

And then every now and again I would glance over, I'd be like, um, Anthony Lynn can't blow this jetty. And so then the Jets, the Jets had to get a potential game tying drive. If they had gotten a touchdown into two, the Chargers ware will stop him. But then with seconds left in the game, I think there was seven seconds left or eight seconds left, the Charges

were thirty four to twenty six. They had a fourth down, and so the Tai Long there and there punter was instructed, all right, you know, just run back, take a safety, will be good. But apparently no one told Tai Long take all the time, and he left a second on the clock, like you could have run around a little and taking this. There was a second. So the Chargers had to actually withstand a final punt return up six

to the Jets. And by the way, the Jets, in all their ineptitude, didn't even get one lateral out of it. It was ridiculous. But the Charges went and justin Herbert your your your offensive rookie of the year for sure. Thirty seven forty nine three sixty six, three touchdowns, no picks, three times sacked, begging the question, what was Oregon doing with this guy? He's the best young quarterback, I think, most most impactful of all the young quarterbacks. I think

he's he's a star. But like, how do you manage to just be like kind of a met team? Yeah? I get it, they were, like, I get it, they were close to the top of the pack twelve. But you know what I mean, a bad offensive system. People were saying that he would probably come out of his shell a little bit when he came to the marrow. Mario Christobal The answer to that question. Keenan Allen sixteen catches, franchise record for one forty five and a touchdown. He

was targeted nineteen times. First receiver in NFL history to have six games of thirteen catches or more or Keenan Allen. The charges were nine of fifteen on third down in their thirty twenty eight went over the Jets twenty nine rushing yards though that's it didn't need them thirty six twenty eight time possession advantage over the Jets twenty thirty two. They're at Buffalo, Buffalo. How to buy Buffalo seven and three, one game lead now in the a f C East

over Miami. I'll say, Buffalo, no man's land, five and a half over the Chargers. All right, you're dead on. It's five and a half. My powering is from the five, so I have no beef at the five and a half at all. Uh. Yeah, I think this is I think that's a good number for a Buffalo team that the wind doesn't always cover. But you know, probably a little better offensively than we thought they would be, uh

at the beginning of the season. And Chargers they keep everything close and then they do usually blow it in the end, you know, And they did all they could to blow last night's game. Dude, I can tell you that because I needed the Chargers myself. But you know, I think five and as good number. And that's what I'm known. Did you did you lose any of your four survivors, Chris? I thought we wanted to talk about that. That's right now, forget we're we're gonna talk about it.

I forgot apologies. I got the Chargers, that's for sure, and so survivor. I'm excited by that. Um. But yes, they got harrowing at the end of that, the Chargers look good on a tease I like, as Aaron teas here, by the way, the reason it's five and the reason I gets five and a half because it was four and a half, everybody would bet the Bills, and if it was six, I think everybody would kind of say, well, the Charges crowded. You know. They always keep these games close,

and they do. As Aaron shots, yes, Aaron Shots set from Football Outsiders a couple of weeks ago, they are the most consistent team through his prism of f D v O A. They are the most consistent team in the NFL from week to week. They always show up always. They never lay an egg. They managed to mess it up, as you say at the end of at the end of days, but they always show up, all right. What's next? Next? Up? The Dolphins at the Jets. Dolphins at the Jets. This

was interesting yesterday because the Dolphins went into Denver. A lot of people loved the Dolphins yesterday and they were pretty much I mean, I don't want to use the word dominated, but they were never really a threat to win this game, not really in the In the second part of this game, they lose to the Broncos twenty to thirteen. They lose his four point closing favorites. Their five game winning streak snapped. TWA was eleven for twenty for eighty three yards, one touchdown, no picks. He was

sacked six times. Remember Matt Ryan was sacked eight times by the Saints, but too, it was sacked six times by the Broncos. And then Ryan Fitzpatrick came in in the fourth quarter. He was twelve of eighteen for one seventeen, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked zero times, and he really got the sense at that point, oh, maybe

the Dolphins have a shot here with Fitzpatrick. But two, it was taken out in the fourth and a lot of people were asking was he taken out because of the six sacks and because on that last sack he was his leg was bent pretty badly, had to sort of limp off the field. Was he taken out because of injury or because Brian Flores made the coach's decision? And Flora said after the game had nothing to do

with the injury, that it was a coach's decision. Um at least that's what he so for him to go out and say that that's interesting, but his left leg was bent awkwardly on the final sack by Bradley chub two of that is two two total yards. That's it for the Dolphins, just fifty six rushing. Justin Simmons intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick pass in the end zone with eighty excuse me,

it was sixty three seconds left. That sealed the deal for the Broncos thirteen and the Jets against the Chargers in that loss, that six point lost, Joe Flacco was fifteen of thirty for two oh five, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once New York drove to the Chargers thirty two with under a minute remaining, as I was mentioning before turning over the ball on downs and the Jets now off to the worst starting franchise history, by the way, that was after the that before the safety

ship anigans. The Jets off to the worst starting franchise history. Twenty one team since the merger to beginning season oh in ten. First team eliminated from postseason consideration. So those of you who had we're still holding out hope for your Jets to make the playoffs. Teakets, Sorry, it's over, I'll say Miami minus seven in a hook at new at the Jets. Yeah again, I like your number better. It's six and a half or seven, Um juice either way, six and a half juice on a favorite, seven juice

on a dog. I'm opening seven flat. You know, my power ring has come to a lot higher, but once again diminishing returns on the favorite. Just couldn't make it as high as my power ratings come to. They've got the Jets really at the bottom of the barrel. They played hard yesterday. They looked, you know, as good as they could possibly look. I guess for this team, but you know the Dolphins that they got to laying an egg.

I think they come back strong. And by the way, Floor is already announced that it will be to uh As just starting quarterback this week, so that there's no dissensionarian gap. I like the Dolphins. I don't know if I want to lay the seven on the road, but yeah, Gun, in my head, I would certainly pick the Dolphins. I'm surprised the reason I said seven and a half. Yeah, if it was seven, I would have thought everybody would

have bet the Dolphins at that point. Um. Yeah, Dolphins feel like a good teaser players Chargers, solid teasing likes. Technically not your old Stanford won't because I'm on the road, but either of them. Yeah, all right, let's do one more. Crizzy thinks at the Broncos. Say it's at the Broncos. Okay, it's time for It's time for young Gil to issue an apology. You ready for this, Taysom Hill, I apologize for everything I've ever said to you or about you.

Um saying six and oh now without Drew Brees since the start of last season, six and oh Taysom Hill Yesterday eighteen of twenty three for two thirty three. Sean Payton, coach of the stop it eighteen of twenty three for two thirty three, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times, ten carries for fifty one yards, two touchdowns, did have one fumble lost. It's his first NFL started

a quarterback. That was his first start ever. He had forty six previous games before finally getting his first start under center. Entered having thrown This is interesting. I don't

know if people really sort of got this. Taysom Hill entered the game having thrown just five passes with four completions for eighty six yards this season and lifetime was ten of eighteen for two oh five career Drew brees sideline at least three games beginning with yesterday's games with at least three games with with what they called multiple rib fractors, and then yesterday we found out it was eleven eleven. I think how many listen, little anatomical study

will tell you. I believe we have twelve pairs of ribs. So that's a half a rap right there. Almost, My goodness, that's a lot of ribs. Jeez. Sean Payton gave Hill the nod over Jamis Winston. As we know, Michael Thomas, hey, welcome back. Nine for one oh four, had ten touches all year before yesterday, and the Saints had a hundred sixty eight rushing yards led by Hill. And then there's Denver,

who we just talked about beating the Dolphins. Drew Lock eighteen of thirty for two seventy, no touchdowns, one picksact zero times, Melvin Gord two touchdowns, Patrick five for one nineteen, but a lot of that one nineteen was on that last just throw up in the air by Lock. But um a four hundred fifty nine to two hundred twenty two total yards advantage over the Dolphins. And that's the thing, going back to to it for a second, PRIs that's the thing with this little like to a mini era.

So far, it's all been marked by defensive help like the Dolphins defense has helped out in every situation. And again, only eighty three yards passing for him yesterday. Um, back to this game, New Orleans at Denver. Uh, New Orleans minus six. I'll say gingerly, ye see five minutes a see five and a half to hands six. I've the sixth better. I gotta tell you, going into yesterday, I had lowered my power rating on the Saints three points, you know, because uh, you know, I mean we've seen

Hill but not you know, starting quarterback role. But you know, really did think with with Sean Payton as the coach, Uh first one, you figure made the right decision watching these guys in practice all week. And yeah, he is a great coach. There's no doubt, especially offensively, no doubt about it. I don't have two points worse anymore. I got him only one point worse. Um, you know, Nassa, we have to see a little more out of Hill before we crowned the next Steve Young. Like I've heard

some guys saying, but I like six better. My tire rains actually comes a little higher more like I hate to say like nine, but uh, you know, uh, Broncos looked good, particularly on defense yesterday, but I think six good number. Good places started. Yeah, And by the way, I don't really take back what I said about taste Sean Payton throwing Taysom Hill in as a changeup when Drew Brees was playing, because that was always annoying to me and I always felt it was overblown in terms

of what it does the Saints drives. But what I was impressed by with Hill yesterday was eighteen for twenty three. That is what the question mark was, and he was very accurate yesterday. So eighteen of twenty three for Taysom Hill not a bad start to the non Drew Brees games. Here coming back, we got more guessing lines right here in Numbers Game at Visa the Sports Betting Network. We're guessing lines for week twelve in the NFL. It's kill Alexander.

Chris Andrews is here as well. By the way, Chris prediction, do you think Cisilac will go from twenty five percent to twelve point five percent next next time when he does this, when he peers it back at six point five. Okay, I'm sorry. I just wanted to point that out. Just watching TV. It's distracted. All right, Let's do two more games here before the primetime games at the Rain. By the way, do I have that right? If my math is correct, we have four games left, forty Niners at

the Rams. You're uh there, but they're you know, the Rams haven't played and the forty Niners didn't play, So I don't have much to add to this other than again, the Rams are at the Bucks tonight. Bucks are four or four and a half point favorites, depending on where you're shopping. UM. And the Rams defense, as I mentioned, eight of nine second halves this season have given up a maximum of three points the defense, So that's impressive. UM. But I will say site unseen with the Rams tonight,

they will be about six point favorites. I'm guessing against the Niners, just a guess, six, six and a half and seven. I like the higher number. My my ratings came to nine. I was talking about humans who you're just talking about. By the way, I'm so glad decent has and he's one of our best writers and they're very sharp. Beauty. Absolutely, Um he is, Yeah, he really is. But we were talking about this Rams defense and I

am just really impressed with this defense there. This is a really good team and just such a lost season for the forty Niners. So, like I said, I see six and a half and seven, uh, mostly six and a half. But I'm gonna open seven. If they want to give me a bet, I will be glad they take that. Uh you know, I I don't see the Niners putting up too many points in insisting just so hard with the Niners, right, a mash unit four and

six on the season, no fault of their own. You know, who knows what you get with them from week to week. They're just trying to piece it together and get through it all. Um. But we do know no Kittle, no Thomas, no bossas they have been for the latter two guys for the whole season pretty much. And it will be Nick Mullins again at quarterback. All right, what's what's so seven? You're putting up seven? I'm opening seven? Okay. Chiefs at the Bucks Bucks again who have not played, yet they

played at night against the Rams Chiefs. As we mentioned yesterday, Chiefs now nine and one. So as long as they're winning games, the pressure is still on the Steelers to to win football games in the a f C. Remember, only one by. Only one team gets a bye in this expanded playoffs, that is unless the contingency plan ever goes into effect if COVID still reeks havoc between now and the end of the year. In that case, nobody would get a buy and we'd add another team uh

per conference. But as is the case now, only one team gets a by. Chiefs beat the Raiders as we mentioned earlier, thirty five to thirty one yesterday. They do not cover as eight point closing favorites. Patrick Mahomes thirty four forty two touchdowns, one pick. Only his second pick

of the year wasn't sacked. Clyde Edwards Zilaire fourteen for sixty nine, two touchdowns, Kelsey eight for seven and a touchdown, Tyreek eleven for one oh two and a touchdown, thirty six first downs for the Chiefs ties of franchise record sixty total yards. They did have ten penalties for eighty nine.

Andy Reid now you always. You said this last week, all the time, Jason uh Andy Reid after it buys a thing, I think he's eighteen and three our nineteen and three after a buy straight up, we're talking since nine. I would listen. I would imagine the Chiefs will be four point favorites at Tampa Bay. I think it's just it will be over three. That's my guess. I like your remember better you my power raise come to a four. It's only three. Three to me is a one way number.

I don't I wouldn't want to take Tampa plus the three. I keep going back mental lead to that New Orleans game against Tampa where they just thoroughly, thoroughly dominated this team. And I have I know everybody's ready to have the Bucks in the upper rational in the NFL UM I'm just not quite so sold on him. I kind of like the Ramps tonight. I know it's getting up there, but like I said, I love their defense. I think the Bucks might be vulnerable to that. But my my

reigns from the flour. I still think listen to the Chiefs. I think they ran into a bit of a buzz saw last night. I think the Raiders are very underrated and a good, good team, and they had trouble winning. They did pour it out right. Three is a little light. Like I said to me, three is a one way number. I'll open three because I don't like to mess around too much of that because we do everything at eleven and ten and I can get myself in trouble if I go to three and a half. So I'll open three.

You know, we'll take the game down kickoff tonight. But at this point in time, I like to higher number. I like it higher than three. But I don't see anything hiring that at all. Right, a lot even jews round. Let me ask you a question. Do you get the sense from the Raiders last night? I think you're right underrated? But do they match up particularly well with the Chiefs? Is there's something about the Raiders that they just played

the Chiefs well? And then you know, because I was again not to make everything about survive Her, but was going through all the games that I've gotten by and Survivor this year, and like one of the by far easiest was the Patriots beating the Raiders. Like of all things, you look back, You're like, how was that that easy? So it's just and they didn't have right, they didn't practice on defense. Maybe that was a good thing, who knows going into the yesterday's game. But do you think

it's a matchup thing with the Raiders? Do you think they're just good period? Well? I think the matchup certainly helps because listen, they beat them once and then they covered yesterday and easily could have won. I don't want to say easy. It's never easy when you're facing Mahomes, but they could have won that game certainly. Um so you have a point there. But I'll tell you what I really think with the Raiders. It took Derek Carr a while, and we all get to see that too

much in the NFL anymore. You see it like when I was young to is seventies. I mean, go back and look at Terry Bradshaw's first two years. I mean it's parents like to Ryan Leaf there if they're almost identical. I don't know if we would have a chance to see that out of the quarterback again. Uh well, we probably would at certain times, you know, of course, But Derrick Carr is just one of those guys. He's gotten better and better and better, and you know, I'm not

sure reason the m d P race. You know, Uh, sorry Jesus, but I think that, uh, he's definitely been here. He's playing at a really high level, and he's playing at a high level. He's he's coming into his own He's a very legitimate got a quarterback in the league. And I think that's would make the Raiders say, good, gotta step in and take a break. And like I said, a couple of drops as well. It could have been better.

We'll come back. We'll finish it up guessing lines Week twelve right here on the numbers game a visa the sports betting nowhere. All right, let's go to the prime time games. I think that's all we have left Sunday night. Yeah, okay, Bears at the Packers. I should say, not if your rules are stupid, but if you they're vague and you misapply them. That's what I meant to say. What was it again? I'm sorry? What was that, Chrissie. I was just had a thought. Bears Bears at Packers. All right,

Bears didn't play, So the Bears are five and five. Packers, as we mentioned, lose that game to the Colts, and we went through the whole holding call stuff. I could do it play by play. I wrote them all down, but I don't want to bore you. But just holding fest for the Colts at the end of regulation kept the Packers in it. Colts still prevailed in overtime green Bay three points, two turnovers on six drives and second half in overtime. Yesterday, Geese Aaron Rodgers was seven thirty

eight for three eleven, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once. DeVante seven for one oh six in a touchdown. The Packers only ran eighteen plays over the final thirty three minutes. That's it. They had four turnovers, yeah, four turnovers. Before that in their first nine games, they had an NFC low five turnovers total. Had four turnovers in this one game and they were minus two in turnovers here, four for them, two for the Colts. Usually that's all

you need to know. And again two of those huge

for the Packers. One that fumble on the kickoff after the Colts had tied the game, after they had erased the fourteen point deficit, fumble on the ensuing kickoff, It allowed the Colts to go up in the game thereafter, and then, of course in overtime, the big turnover on the second play that the Packers ran Valdez Scantling, who had that great uh that great play in the final drive of regulation when they were backed up and Rodgers just heaved it and he came down with it right

around midfield. But I'll say the Packers, this is uh Chicago at green Bay. A lot of people are gonna like green Bay and survivor if they're lucky enough to get past Thanksgiving, they're gonna like the Packers. Here, I'll say green Bay minus seven. Yeah, it's uh seven and a half and they you know, we still had questions about the Chicago quarterback. I think, you know Folds or for this key um not if there's any difference between the two of them, points Greg Way to me, there

is not. But I'm not sure even one of them is healthy. And uh, who else they have they got I can't remember it. The other guy they have some guy had heard of but hasn't played a whole lot. So I like, I like the seven half and and I see seven half and eight. You know, just debating was this a good spot for green Bay coming off a loss where they should have won. You know, the

four turnovers probably an aberration. Um, you know, the Bears defense has been, you know, pretty darn good, but they still give up in the mid twenties almost every week. You know, you know, I think Rogers could probably help do that, and I'm not sure the Bears are gonna be able to put too much on the board themselves. So I think I'm gonna open eight because I think

the public will be on it. Like I said, even though my powerat has come a little lower, just worried about the quarterback situation for for Chicago and see how the things work out this weekend. I think it might be a good spot for the Packers. Fall is not seriously injured when it was hearded off the field the other night. In the end, no serious injury. Uh okay. Monday Night, Hawks at the Eagles. Seahawks at the Eagles. Seahawks coming off of bye, excuse me not to buy

extra rest. They beat the Cardinals on Thursday night, pardon me, by a touchdown, and then there's the Eagles, which you'll get to here momentarily. Russell Wilson in that game against the Cardinals twenty three one, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. Remember he had committed ten turnovers. In the previous four games combined, Seahawks had a hundred sixty five yards rushing in that game against the Cardinals. By the way, their four upcoming games are against teams

with a combined eighty eight and one record. So the Seahawks, who after tonight could either be in the lead or tied for the lead in the NFC West, next four games playing teams with a combined eighty eight and one record, setting up nicely for the Sea Talks. And then there's the Eagles, who we talked about earlier in their game against the Browns. The Eagles are the proverbial team that as they run up, as in the run up to the game that they play, you're like, oh, I'm playing

the Eagles here, I've got to play the Eagles. This clearly points of the Eagles, and then a drive into the game, you're like, why did I bet on this team? Not that I bet on him? Uh. Carson wentz twenty one for thirty five to thirty five, two touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked five times. He has now been sacked a league leading forty times. Forty The Eagles were two for twelve on third down. They were two for two

on four, but they were minus two in turnovers. And as I mentioned, that first touchdown for the Browns, the first points in the game was that pick six where Denzel Ward smacked Carson Wentz didn't feel him coming, ball went up in the air, Taki Taki to the house. Starting center Jason Kelsey hurt his elbow in the first f His loss forced the Eagles to turn to undrafted rookie look Luke Juriga, twelve lineman used this season for

the Eagles. Kelsey played the second half in a large brace and then Lane Johnson this just in hurt his shoulder in the second half. Lane Johnson always in and out of the lineup. So Seattle's got to be a favorite here. And I'll say by four more than a field goal at Philly. Uh my numbers came to seven, but your numbers a little closer. It's five, um seven. After the last night it was five and a half.

You know, last night there's mostly five and a halfs and they're gone to somebody somebody actually, you know, there was a little bit of a move on the Eagle. But I'm with you. You know, I put this out last week and I think I even said it on your show, Uh, Paul heim Bikinis, who who was one

of my countrymen and UH producer at ESPN. We posted this and we followed each other on Twitter, but he posted how many games quarterbacks were under fifty in their qb R. Of course, fifties just an even, you know, an average number. And going into last week, I forget what WinCE was. Last week he had the most of the league was six. Now yesterday's qb R was twenty

point two. I mean, just horrible. We have got the quick making excuses for Carson Wentz, and we're always making excuses for this guy, and that you know, a couple of years ago and he was probably going to be the m v P if he didn't get hurt. And I understand that, but maybe that injury took a lot out of him, or maybe just guys figure them out or you know whatever, But we can't keep making excuses for him. You know, I'm gonna open five just because

I even see some four and as showing up. Uh, you know what, I know, the way this works, the wise guys will come in and take the five, you know, on a home dog. But by by Monday night, I'd like to promise you I need Philadelphia, you know, that's just the way it's gonna go. But the first wave

will come in on Philling. But I'm gonna be very nimble in as soon as I see the starting to move up like which it probably will on like Thursday, Friday or Saturday something like that, I'm gonna be moving this up because I like the Seahawks at seven uh and I'm not even that high on the Seahawks. Their their defense, excuse me, their defense is not playing well. And even they you know, I'm glad they want against the Cardinals and we needed them and all that, but

they didn't look that great to me. But the Eagles are just they're heading south and you look at their next three games, they'll will They'll be significant dogs in the next three games. So if you have a ticking on them to win the division, I know you're in first place now by half the game. It ain't gonna last. Trust me. Eagles half game lead once again over the rest of the NFC East. They're three six and one.

Everybody else is three and seven, and unless the Cowboys in the Washington football team end up in a tie, someone Washington or Dallas will take over the lead at least temporarily, at least until the Monday night game or Sunday as well with the Giants. But Monday Night with the Eagles playing hosting the Seahawks, I wonder if the Seahawks might be an interesting survivor pick for some who want to go a little contrary and thanks, I'll say

the last time thanksgivings a wing in a prayer. After that, Sunday is difficult. Dolphins are good. That's the gauntlet that you can always still fade the Jets if you have the If you have the Dolphins available to you, that's obviously the the go to. So in the end, here's what I like, Chrissie. I'll start today, Uh, Tennessee. You're telling me they're getting more than three at Indianapolis. I'll

take Tennessee if I'm getting three in a hook. Tennessee has been very very good to me through through the last couple of seasons. Arizona at New England. What was the number you were posted on that one of my posting, I'm gonna post three. Ye give me the Cardinals. I'm sorry, I mean it's that it's two and a half. Yeah, give me the Cardinals all day and then the final final one for me would be Casey if it's only

three at Tampa Bay. Lead Casey. How about you? I favor all those member I like Pittsburgh, Arizona, Tennessee, and I like Seattle. Pittsburg and Seattle. Yeah, I kind of like Seattle. You might talk me into that. Chris Andrew's everybody. Chrissy, I thank you as always an enjoyable two hours each and every week. I look forward to it next week as well. Always could pleasure my friend. Great talking to you, and happy Thanksgiving to uh Chrissy and to all of you.

We'll say that many more times between now and Thursday. Good luck with Monday Night football and everything you're betting from all of us, at least least Sports Betty Nights