Check it on Man.
It is Wednesday morning, January eighth, twenty twenty five. Just got finished doing the megapod. We are pre draw for the first tennis slam of the year, the Australian Open. That is the difference between golf and tennis. Tennis. Right out of the gates, we're like, let's do a slam after like three weeks in Brisbane and Adelaide and now
they're going to Melbourne for the Australian Australian Open. Gil Alexander and as always on our tennis podcast, but he's very busy, so we can only do the pre draw part with Drew Drew Denzick Underscore Whale, underscore capper who joins us now co host of not only The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor but also NBC Sports at the Edge. Speaking of Australians with Jay Croucher. Drew, how you doing, man, Hope you're well in Long Beach unscathed by the fires.
Yes, yeah, it's the apocalyptic scene here in the south Land, but I think they're starting to get things under control up in l a and the smoke in the wind and Long Beach was never really a factor, so we got very very lucky. But there's a lot of people out there that are hurting and feel for them. I got friends got evacuated in Brightwood and Santa Monica. Yeah,
it was it was not a great scene. My wife's family, you know, her her dad was uh, you know, grew up in the Palisades, and so he's obviously pretty torn up about this. And yeah, it's it's a it's as nasty and yeah it's okay though. They they we are resilient. We we uh, we have some beautiful weather on the horizon and they're going to get this thing turned around.
You you uh, I mean you know this better than I. But it's like that's the kind of thing that can never be prevented. Right, can happen any year anywhere up there with the brush right?
Oh yeah, it happens pretty some quasi regularly. But we had a bad cycle where we had two years in a row of a lot of rain and so the fuel just exploded growth wise, and then this summer was a dry and hot and we have had barely measurable rain through the fall and winter, where we usually have a little bit that kind of you know, kind of puts cools things off before the sant Anna's really really ripped in December and January, and so this was just sort of the perfect storm of a lot of fuel
that hasn't burned in a while combined with just hllacious winds and the rest is history.
Well glad you're okay, man, I know you're busy. You're in a busy stretch. So we'll do pre draw with you today. The draw comes out Civic Time, our time tonight, which is Australia tomorrow, and then Zach Cohen and I will do the post draw part of this podcast, which we'll put in audio. We'll also do Twitter live for that on Friday morning. How pumped are you, man, I'm so I'm so glad to be back.
Yeah, I am extremely excited. You mentioned that up the top. The tennis calendar is unique.
I love it.
I don't think I would be a tennis better if it weren't for the fact that the calendar is so perfect. Phase out of regular season NFL, phase into daily tennis handicapping, and then phase out of daily Hannis cap tennis capping right with that fourth Slam in the US Open, ending you know, perfect handshake on CBS Week one, Friends, vinal it's a wrapp now it's football time, no, so it's it's it's the perfect uh you know, it's the perfect
kind of handshake with football. There's something going on all over the world, you know, at all times of the day, and yeah, it's it's just a great it's a great sport.
It's a great sport to handicap and uh, you know that I particularly like this this opening salvo down in the down in Oceania and the Australian Open itself is fun because at least for me, like you know, it starts in the afternoon, right, so it starts kind of in primetime, like you'll start to get you a little bit of a taste of tennis and then uh, you know, you fall asleep and then you wake up in the middle of night and you can't help but like flip
open flash score just to see what happened. And then you know there's usually if there's if there's some straggling matches that they are still on when you get up in the morning, then you have tennis with coffee. So I love it.
It's awesome. And for for the radio show that I do on a numbers game at Vson the way that the time zones work, I can't really give the picks that morning because the way that the time zones are that the handicapping comes after that. Yeah, yeah, and then so that'll be on the vson dot com slash picks page.
Let's can we start with the ladies? Can we start with because you you were on a numbers game, you were kind enough to come on every Tuesday, and you were on yesterday and we talked about the lady side and so for the first time the big sort of change, the seat change, the sea change in the on the lady side. Is that for the first time in two years, Like it's longer, But twenty twenty two, I went through all my futures. It was just an EGA fest where
she was like seven to one. I'm not just talking about the French Op, but I'm talking about I mean, I'm talking not talking about the US Open. At twenty end of twenty twenty one, I believe she won the US Open. Could be wrong about that. But twenty twenty two she won you know, Indian Wells, she won Miami, she did the Sunshine Double there and then she won other tournaments. And she was always like you could still
get a really juicy number on her. Since then, she has been the number one player in tennis, and there is no tournament hard or clay or anything. Oh grass a little bit, but generally speaking she has always been either the shortest or you will only get a short number on her. We are back to a little bit of a drift, back to where now I think FanDuel has the longest number on her at plus six fifty, which is exactly what you said your fare was on her yesterday. And I just want to start by saying,
are we as the pendulum swung too much? First question?
Gut says it will have swung too much by the time we get to India. Well, I think, really that's when her season starts, and I get I guess like, yeah, we don't have the draw yet. So this is the part where we get to we just get to color right, or we're coloring in what has changed? What is new? What if we missed? You know what? What is the current landscape? And the landscape in women's tentence right now
is it? Arena Sblanca is the top number, she's the top player, and she's not number one because she's played the most tournaments. She's been grinding out you know, deep runs. She's number one because from Cincinnati to the end of
the year last year she was untouchable. Now, she did lose her last two matches in the tour finals, and if you want to, like, you know, grab onto some sort of hope that she is defeatable, like those were those were surprising losses and you know that said like she also lost her last tour too, in the tour finals the year before, and then was just an absolute
steamroller in the Australian Open. So you know, this is this is kind of her time of the calendar to really put an exclamation point on the end of her her finale run of the previous year her I guess the you know, it's it's worth noting she's the you know, defending two time champion. She's gone for number three in a row. It is worth noting that both championship runs I thought were pretty like emphatic. This this surface is fast.
This is a fast, hardcourt surface and unless there are you know, unusual wrinkles which you're not going to catch until we see more quality play about you know, changes that they may have made to the balls with the cord or just unusual weather. This is going to be a tournament that plays in door strengths, and for those reasons, her being world number one, her being on the top of the draw, and her having now you know, back to back, you know, pretty impressive success at this tournament.
You just have to you just have to nod and respect it, like, yeah, this is this She's the rightful favorite and she's going to be tough to defeat now or is she unbeatable? Absolutely not, Like there are very This is not the This is not anywhere close to let's say Djokovic in what twenty sixteen, what was he had back to back titles and then went on just an absolute tear at this tournament. Right, This is not that it's best a three. This is you know, women's tennis.
All it takes is you get in your own head. You have some double faults. It happens to be, oh, I don't know, the semi final round in Eure up against an opponent who's up that day, and you could lose. Sablanca has done this characteristically throughout her career, to the tune of I will never sit and bang on the table like I would for you get the French or back in the day Djokovic at the Australian, or back
in the day Rafa at the French. Like this, you can't say that she is you know this, you know, just an unbeatable felt And I think that the prices they're seeing in the market right now are fair and respectful of her being the best. But you know, but I also don't think that this is a set it and forget it. Don't overthink this, just be Sabolenka and
move on. So the other kind of factor, beyond just the fact that this is the format lends itself to chaos, is that the women's tour right now is really healthy, Like there are some really really decent players in decent form at the top. And to go back to your question about the pendulum for Ega, we know this is a little bit out of her comfort zone in terms of her strengths, you know, her skill set and her strengths.
We know that, you know, she had a little bit of a uneven fall, to put it politely, didn't play much tennis, was not especially impressive at the tour finals, although went to the Billy Jean Cup Billy Jean King Cup and just managed to eke out three set victories over Bodosa, Niskova and Pallini. So like there's there's a there should be a little bit of a well of confidence there, you know. But but yeah, I mean, you know, she she she took she took a convincing loss at
the hands of Sable incan Cincinnati. She took a convincing loss in the hands of Jessica Pagoula at the US Open uh Cocoa. Goff eliminated her in the round robin stage at the at the finals, and she doesn't have a whole lot of other tennis in this stretch, and we know her team is turned over. You may be
able to speak to that more. Yeah, she's she's she's gone through some changes in terms of you know who she's listening to, what she's trying to do with her game, and you know, there's there's a lot about IGA's dominance
that is a bit of a confidence game. And when I think of what it was that it made her unbeatable on clay in particular, this is that the women on the other side, the woman on the other side of the court, it's like, well, gonna need to be perfect to that and yep, yeah, probably not gonna happen. I maybe it had a good run, but I'm up against the EGA, and I don't think anyone really feels like that when they are up against her in Melbourne.
I agree with everything jay Rod. By the way, shout out to Jay Rod, because he's always the one who keeps me informed on EGA's every move and every coaching move. By the way, her new coach seems to think she'll be good on grass. We'll see. Time will tell last thing about Egan. Then I want to move on to where I see some value and see if you agree
with this again pre draw. We don't know how it stacks up in the actual bracket, but if we are doing raw data over hard courts, not not, you know, subject to the gradation of hardcore, because as Drew says, this is a fast hardcore, but just hardcourts in general calendar year, it is true that EGA's stratospheric numbers have dipped a bit, but not massively, but they have dipped as they have in a six month and her margin over the field beginning with Arenas Abalenka, has narrowed tremendously,
but she still has the slight edge in the raw data. So I just I bring that up to say, let's not go crazy. But everything you're.
Saying, yeah, and I guess again again pre draw, there's a world where six fifty is the best bet on the Board's right. That world is Cocoa GoF being drawn onto the top the third ranked player on the women's Tour.
And I would say kind of co hottest player. I mean maybe hottest player as far as just like form being you know, being measured is Cocoa GoF and this is recent form right like and when you are trying to handicap Australia, in my opinion, you need to be looking very carefully at what a player has done to change their game, right and well, you're looking for two things.
Are they in shape and have they made any meet you know, noticeable improvements to their weaknesses as you define them and you get a gauge of the shape, you know, the the you know the fitness, uh if they play some warm up matches and Goco gov she's remains one of the elite athletes on the women's tour. And then did she address some of the changes or concerns with her form? I would say yes, or with her with their with their game. And that was when I when I when you look at Coco and like, I've had
mercurial relationship betting her. I thought, for I thought she should have run away with Wimbledon last year. I'm still very mad that she flopped. Uh and uh, you know that cost me a lot of money. But and I didn't really believe in her in her US Open run and title. I was on the Sablanca pretty heavy in that final that she's she she took down.
And that was after her ridiculous summer, like yeah, yeah, she she had such a poor year leading into the hard court and then just utterly exploded.
And I was like, I was like, this will, this heater will come to an end. It didn't. But but I would say that, like one of the reasons that I lack confidence in really going to the will with Coco is because her second serve is an absolute liability. And every player on tour knows what knows what's coming, where it's coming, what the speed will be, and how to attack it. And so with her first serve is you know, is abandoning her. Then her second serve was
her downfall. And I would say that what I saw at the United Cup from her in some very compelling wins, was more variety, a different grip on her second serve, more velocity, and you know less of an achilles heel. Right, So I think you have to kind of recognize Coco right now as your second choice in terms of just what is a fair rating for her on this surface. The problem is she could be on the top half and then EGA only has to play one of those, which makes six plus six fifty a no brainer bet
in my opinion. So as I'm watching the women's draw, and as I'm hovering over a future's bet, that's what I'm looking for. Where's Coco top or bottom?
Where's Coco right? And that will be the most interesting thing on the women's side. And I agree with you there is a world where that Egos fiatex number has the most value. I would like to throw out two more players for you, because unlike the men's side, I was talking about this on the radio side this morning, Unlike the men's side where there is quote unquote of value on a couple of players. Ultimately, when it gets down to it, you're like, okay, but they're not why
they're not being centered Alcohoraz. When it gets down to it on the lady side, I actually think it's legit.
I agree these two players.
For me again just raw data wise on hard courts, and this passes the eye test. Also Carolina Mohova Mira andre who are both twenty five to one and to me are priced way out of wat like I don't have those as twenty five.
I agree with that they're they are both. They're both I would qualify as again quote unquote in the mix here to to ship. Mukhova especially, her game is is very, very tough on an opponent, right, Like there's a there's a a cleanness of finesse, a structure, a vision that it makes. It's tough, it's it's beautiful, it's very She's not an easy easy out, even if you are clearly the better player. Right, We've seen this match is on player x's racket and Mohova, like it's just she's just
tough to tough to beat. She almost got you get the French final a couple of years ago. It was that last year, Probably was that that was two years ago, right, I think there was two years ago. Yeah, And she's dealt with injuries, which is why her ranking is nonsense. But she's a top five player for me, and I think twenty five to one is absolutely absolutely value and honestly like maybe more even than her big likely or
dangerous here to win. She's the kind of player that's going to ruin the hopes of a higher seeded player, right Like she could ruin this tournament for Sabline, because she could ruin this tournament for Ego. She could ruin this tournament for Coco, And what I mean by that is if she's in their quarter she could win that
quarterfinal and then all bets are off. So yeah, she's she's ranked low enough that she's not going to get a great Did you see where her ranking is, By the way, she's seated twentieth, Like she is literally a like a landmine in this draw. She's going to land somewhere and really really wreck this or just have the the possibility of wrecking this for someone. And your andre Va commentary is I think fair. Also, however, I would qualify it that's she's less of a controls her own destiny.
In my opinion, she's good enough to win, but I think there are certain obstacles certain players she hasn't solved that she's going to need someone else to take out.
Yeah, I agree with that. You correct me if I'm wrong. When you were on a numbers game the other day, did you not bring up because I thought of you as I was crunching numbers and I was like, oh, now it makes sense. Did you not bring up Belinda Benchic the other day?
Yeah? Her story is fun to tell because her number was it was ridiculous. I think on the open first, you know, just unshaped markets. I want to say, she was like one hundred and fifty to one. I think there were a lot of markets Fandul included that didn't even list her. Yeah, speaking of potential anaments. Yeah, and you know she again like she has the high enough
quality that she's going to be a factor. And her story is fun because bench It was last a kind of a real contender, I want to say, like Wimbledon twenty twenty three, right, and then she got pregnant, she had a baby, she had Mattornity leave, and then last fall very quietly entered some lower stage tournaments to get her fitness back to really kind of ramp up for this year, making a like an emphatic return and in I missed it entirely that she was even playing in
November December or October November. I didn't even see it and went through the number grabbed the numbers, comes to them like, oh, man, like she's playing like a top twenty player right now, like she's playing Massivenmber. It's very small, they're they're they're lower ranked players. But she was doing what you expect, like she's she's getting the job done well. And then you look at the market pricing of her in some of those and you're like, oh, okay, so
match my match. She's being treated like a top ten player right like like that, like like like this is no one's surprised by this. But then you marry that with the Future's book, where she was like one hundred and fifty, and you're like, well, this is stupid. This
is clearly wrong betting that now. And then she looked great in a first couple United Cup appearances before belly flopping against Jazzmine Paulini, who I think is also in the mix, but probably at the bottom of the list of mixed players.
I was going to go through certain players with you, and I'm My question for her was like is it over? Like, is this thing over with Pliny or not?
She looks good, she looks I don't see any of the like, I yeah, it was easy. It's easy to characterize her success in twenty twenty four is fluky, but like she looks to be leaning into what was good about her game, which was going for the margins right, like not just not just rallying, not just being a backboard, but like literally trying to hit it into the corners. And if you're gonna win, if you're gonna win in Melbourne, you need to be able to hit those precision shots.
Like You're not going to get away with rally tolerance here, no way. And so Jim, I don't think she's a serious contender, but I would have to give her more than like four percent.
And the most adorable post match interviews you will ever find.
Yes, and the least respected player by John McEnroe for some reason.
Yeah, why he's such a real Like why see, Sylvie, let me just throw out, Let me just throw out some random If you had finished your thought, I can throw out some.
Randomh yah yeah no no, no, that like yeah but benchic Yeah, yeah, I guess the final thought on benchach is if you can still find a stale monster number, I would just put it in your back pocket. If you can't find that, then you know, let's see where quarter she lands in, and her quarter price is probably going to be bettable.
Camera change threw me off.
Yeah, because yeah, the question with benches. She's going to have a day rest in between matches. But is she fit? We don't really know. Like that looked to me at least like part of the reason that Paladini got her so convincingly, which was that she just like looked tired.
All right, let's do rapid fire. Give a name, you give me your first thought that comes to mind.
Reboka mental disaster. I cannot believe her coach is back in her team. This is so bad what I asked her? What like I went from I went from like cautious. Remember we talked about the kind of year in number one conversation. I was like, she's got it, even Eastvich in her corner. Now like the guy rid of that that abusive you know, you know clown that was in her honor team before he was suspended, Well now he's back, so.
Finesse his way back in somehow, and she's she's like she's like a hostage.
Yes, yes, yes, exactly. It's and and my specific opinion is he's been coaching her since she was a teenager. They have a romantic relationship, and so there's an attachment there that's impossible to just walk away from without you know, collateral damage. And so we're we're apparently we're going to live through this for another year with her, which absolutely stinks. And I would be surprised if Ivanovitch sticks around. He seemed like he was surprised.
He's already gone, no, he's not. To be clear, he is not, but yes, if you read between the lines, he's like, well I'm here for now.
Yeah, we'll see how this go.
But but if it happens, he's not sticking around as like a I don't coach.
There's no more toxic relationship than women's sports that I can point to than Rebakka and her coach.
It's kind of it's kind of like I feel dirty watching it because you because everybody's on the phone page and it's like oh no.
Yeah yeah, and there's nothing that anyone can do about it, particularly they've tried, and she specifically is pulling back in so like this goes to say, like she's talented enough to be in the conversation with the top three, but the mental stuff and the distraction and whatever is going on right now with her, and this guy's got me
off entirely. Osaka man, I really wanted this to be a return to glory for her, Not that I especially love her as a player, but it's just fun to have a wild card like that who can beat anyone on any given day in the mix her quality. The best match of the Women's Tour last year, in my opinion of any match in any tournament, was Ega Switch Open Unmovia. And yeah, we know in her we know on any given day she has world number one quality
in her back pocket. And in her warm up event she looked amazing before retiring in the final, And so I know that happened. And I set Google News alerts for Osaka just as like I want to know right when. Yeah, I want to know if she withdraws or if like she comes out and it's like, oh no, everything's fine. This was just precautionary. I have my eyes on the
Australian Open and I think I can win. That's why I retired in the final, right, But all I'm getting with this Google news alert thing is that she broke up with her boyfriend, who was a rapper apparently, and they went together for Corday. Yeah, do you know that was over? I know that's over.
Because I did not know that was I only knew it was over after she withdrew.
I don't know how to fix my Google news too. I want Oscca news, but I don't want Corday news any way.
Corday and I kind of know hip hop. I couldn't tell you, but yeah, she she broke up with him, brapper pull exactly to pull out of a final. Jay Rod I believe said he had a future on her to win the tournament. So that's that's just a.
She was dominating Thowisan dominance, and she looks very inform. If she is fine, if she's physically fine, she can win this tournament.
Didn't she win the first set? Am I remembering that wrong? Didn't she win the Yeah?
She won the first set, but like but it was, she was up five to two. She could have closed it out six to two. She got some kind of injury, she got broken. She uh she did. She had a chance to close it out on Thomson's serve. She didn't, and then she closed it out six four, and then she retired and like tousand was defeated, Like that was not a fair fight, and she wins the title. So I feel for j Rod. That sucks.
Suck just a few more and then we'll move to the men's side. And again, this is just pre draw thoughts here through the post draw Friday. Uh Danielle freaking Collins who refuses to retire.
Yeah, this is a mess. She's not She's not a factor for me at all. And I don't understand what she was doing at the United Cup. I don't understand why she didn't retire, because it doesn't feel like her heart is necessarily in it to play. Maybe maybe I'm wrong, Maybe I'm reading the situation wrong. She doesn't look fit to me. Maybe she's like.
A lovely person. Though, Drew, we gotta give her.
You want to you want a little conspiracy theory. I think she looked at the math and she was like, my ranking is high enough that I'm going to get a lot of money to play in Australia. I'm gonna get a lot of money to play Indian Wells. I got to defend my title at Miami and then I'm Marilla to retire. I think I think she's literally just
paycheck paycheck paycheck. She went to the United Cup where she was never going to play for an appearance fee, Like she's literally just trying to have the retirement fund on the way out the door, which is axious to me. So Collins not a factor, and.
Okay, last one for me, and then you can tell me anybody else. Jang Shinwick injury.
Red flag, I'm out, I don't like the ship truth from the United Cup.
And yeah, anybody else noteworthy for you when you're.
Yeah, Pagoula injury, red flag, not not expecting Pula to be a factor here, Navarro form red flag. Yeah, Navarro doesn't look good. I think her rating like like you know how you can look at like what's your rating verse like what's your ranking versus like how you ought to be rated, and like like a player like benchit Osaka, like their rating ranking is way under their rating right now. For me, Novara is the other the other direction, like I have her more like a top thirty player, not
a top eight. And I didn't like what I saw from her. So far in the warm up, so maybe she pulls pulls something out of her hat, but I'm not seeing it.
I want a lot of money on her when she was big dogs, big dogs against.
But the numbers are I think she's a fad as a favorite bet as a dog kind of a player.
Yeah, uh, Cosina who you bring up? Though? For me, isn't that category of terrifying.
Always terrifying always, but the least terrifying she'll ever be in Melbourne?
True? Anyone else or we covered it.
I think I'm just kind of going down the list here. But Dosa is interesting to me, but she's not and she's not an especially good form. Schneider is a cross off. I'm disappointed with her.
I was going to ask you, but that was going to be when I.
I like her as like a future top ten player, but I'm not seeing her performing to top ten level right now.
So she had a yeah about Mattie Keys.
Mattie Keys I think is a toss. But it's her she's got. She's got that weird thing where in slams her numbers just look better for some reason, like when the matches matter the most, she's a little bit better compared to just tour stuff. There's a couple of players who are like that, women's and men's, and she's sort of the kind of the quintessential example I would point to and be like doubter he in Adelaide better in Melbourne, kind of a kind of a deal. But yeah, I
don't think she's winning seven matches here. I would toss count Sky, you're thirteen. I would toss had Ad Mai or fifteen. Although she is an absolute warrior, she'll have some three set matches. I assume Asta Panko's a toss, MARTA's toss, Vecha catass Azarenka toss. I don't see anyone kind of down the list here who's going to be
seated that I would be intrigued by. And I think, you know, kind of watch watch for the women's side, like there'll be someone who comes through qualifying or someone who's outside of the top thirty two who makes the round of sixteen. There always is, and I haven't figured out who that is yet until we kind of see what the draw looks like.
What about your girls, your boor No.
She's playing a lot better than she was this time last year. Now Andreva got her head to head. But if you remember like the fall of ants Jibor, well it was Wimbledon, but like when when she when when the bottom was was starting to come in. It was last year at the Australian Open, when Indreva I want to think, went like sixty sixty two against her and that was flattering, Like I don't know how she went
four games. She was playing that poorly, and she played Induryva heck of a lot tougher in the warm up this year. Yeah, so she yeah, onns could be there in week two, and I think, honestly, like I beyond just liking her as a person and a player, like I would like to see that just for the confidence that that would inspire and getting her back into sort of the top twenty kind of discussion.
So I have in my account and I'm usually just in. You know, I've gone a couple of years now where it's like I bet eagor or I don't bet anybody. How do you have some Ega? I have some Mandreva and I have some Mahova. You have anything?
Bet so far benchit at monster numbers and waiting to see cocoa GoF top or bottom to make a decision on whether to get Eiga six fifty. I think other than that number, I don't know that there's like a slam dunk the market. It looks very close to my numbers.
Yeah, okay, you said fair plus six to fifty on Egan market general looks it's pretty close cosistent with your number. Okay, let's go to a men's side. We don't have to spend nearly as much time on the men's side, because, as I said, I could sit here and tell you which I will right now that I see quote unquote value right numbers wise on juxtaposed against the future's market predraw on Alex Demnor at fifty to one and a little bit of Gregor Demetrov at sixty six to one.
But unlike the women's tour, I genuinely don't believe that that translates to a title. So I'm curious. So is this Center and Alcahoraz and everybody else? We'll just speak.
I mean, it's what do you mean everybody else? Is Center?
Like?
I don't mean to be that glib, but like, does anyone really have a meaningful chance to beat either of those players in their current I'm very cool on him, and I think I think maybe there's kind of a couple of I mean, I had the unfortunate the I had the misfortune of watching some of Joker versus Riley Opelka.
Oh I saw the.
Y yikes, yikes. That is a player that Joker solved with like with distinction hard courts when he was anywhere close to title town. And to see that that that was a big red flag. I'm a little like I was kind of following him pretty casually through the fall just to see, like, is there any signal that he's like really ramping up for like one more Aussie title
because this is really like this is his home. You know, he obviously has a ton of legacy at Wimbledon, but like his this is it for him, Like this is his you know ra rafa Roland Garros kind of deal. And you know what, you don't really want to see if you're thinking, like, yeah, this is my final run.
Like having a buddy buddy coaching relationship with Andy Murray was weird doing all this press where were talking about how like getting deported from Australia was like all this mental baggage and you're not sure you'd gotten over it. And then going out and playing with Polka and having no answers for a guy who's so one dimensional, like all of these are negative ticks, negative ticks, negative ticks.
He's coming into this now seated seventh, so he's going to have to play uh you know, center Acres and the quarterfinal he's going to be for me. My fair number on that is going to be like four to one, five to one to win that match, and he's like four to win the title, Like there's no there's no way, there's no way I could could support it. And this isn't to say he's not going to play his way into form with a very soft draw, because they do love him here and they do like to give him
favorable draws. But you know, we'll uh uh, we'll see what ends up happening. He's probably a bet against for me in week two.
I believe you mentioned well before I get to who, you mentioned it, since you bring up Opelka, the serve bot type player, which I always struggle with because they just don't translate in terms of the numbers. Mapechi Paracard, like, is that your guy of all these gout you know, used to be team he was the kind of guy.
He's the best serve on tour right now?
Yeah, the best Yeah, best one.
On pet pair card is your is your is your top server on tour right now? Right?
But so so do you that alone could get him deep?
You think you're week week two? Yeah, week two, I think you know. He he has the the I forget what the saying is, but yeah, he has the lateral movement of a of a fire hydrant. He's he literally can't move laterally, which is hilarious, but his service.
Everybody's waiting for a serve.
I'm like, yeah, and I think actually for pair card what you were looking like. He's not even a rhythm and timing guy, right, It's just always good, which I think is is kind of useful to think of, like some of the guys who are liver or die by the serve, like you can gauge like man, he just
doesn't have the rhythm and timing down right now. I've never never felt like that watching g m P. But I would say that as soon as he comes up against the player of quality who can kind of shape shots and and really and handle the you know, get the return back and play, he's in trouble and the players that I would kind of qualify and that discussion would be players like Alex demon Hour, even Casper Rude.
You know these are rude. I would not say he doesn't have a reasonable chance to win here, but he's going to get enough back to to really frustrate pair Car and then yeah, demon Hour, I think demon Hour is probably a little underrated. Looking at the board right now, you know, I think I again, like, I think there are two men who realistically can win this. I think we will, like unless Alcarez gets seated on the top, this is probably just the Australian Open for the men
starts on Sunday January. But no, I think the the kind of the the sorting after the top two, well, I I should say two things. I don't agree with the price at the top, and we can kind of dig into this a bit in the SEC. But then the sorting beyond the top two I think is, uh, it's kind of nonsense. But I'm not really interested in putting money to work to shape it because I don't think any of that's coming back.
I think it's all they're always exactly my that's exactly my point. It's like there's value, and then there's value that's just.
Scar Yeah, oh great, there's value. Who cares like Zverev is too short? Okay? Who cares Djokovic is too short? Okay? Who cares like? Honestly, like if I I guess, I think the right side to be on in the Australian Open Men's tournament is the bookmaker's side, because they're going to be writing a lot of a lot of losing action. I think down the board in this futures market, Zverev
is a toss. Medvedev is a toss. Even though Medvedev plays phenomenally well here traditionally, I've not seen it right now, he did not he I wish he had hired Ivanovich. Honestly, that would have been the match made in Heaven to kind of take him to, you know, get some late career slam success.
No right, no, coach, I.
Know it's killing me. It's killing me. He needs he needs a guy like Ivanovich to help him kind of not solve players, but make his game a little bit more varied. Yeah, so it's very is a toss. Mevodives a toss, Ruds a toss, Djokovic toss Rube love toss, Dimitrov toss. I know you. Your price on Demitrov was good, but he's dealing with injury. He's an injury red flag for me, So he's a toss system Pass is an
aggressive toss. His performance at the United Cup was appallingly bad, like yes, oh my god, he was like he was like, you're lucky to be in this straw buddy, Like that was like if you had to qualify for this tournament, I don't know if you're doing it. It was bad, interesting, but not good enough?
Are you?
And I lost my my news alrics for sis a pass. I turned those off a lot of time. He's not on my radar, but yeah, sis pause is as Paul is interesting, but probably not to the tune of his rank. You know, he's probably he's rated twelve, he's probably ranked twelve ruin a similar story, thirteen thirteen. And then Draper is way overrated by the market right now because he's an injury red flag.
But he was so actual last year and now he's over.
So underrated last year, and keep keep an eye on him because he's like got top eight potential this year, but he's hurt now, like he withdrew from the United Cup and then also withdrew from everything after the Australian Open, which tells you he's coming here for a paycheck and maybe maybe a couple of rounds. Like they, I don't think he should be anywhere close to his the price he is in the market. But again, like I'm not
interested really in getting getting weird there. I thought there was a chance Ben Shelton could be fun.
But that's what I was going to ask you about, because you brought him up the other day. I did last night the men sick took him down. Yaku Menz is one of my favorite players on tour.
Good great, yeah, great, the great underdog, kind of feisty, he stays, you know, he'll rally outrally, But like Sheldon now, feels like he's on like the Taylor Fritz trajectory where he's just going to go through this rocky, underwhelming portion of time through his younger twenties before maybe peaking in his later twenties. We'll see, what.
About Tlor Fritz.
Since you bring him.
Up, I don't mind making him the third choice. Honestly, I'll listen to it. He played well at the United Cup. I thought. The player who gave him the most trouble, by the way, at the United Cup was Leela Fernandez in the in the mixed doubles. I don't know if you saw that, but she was like absolutely like flabbergasted by her. Sir, he was like, what is happening here? I could not get it back in It was. He was visibly frustrated. Cocoa gob was laughing at him, like
like what are you doing? And yeah, everything else I saw from him in the United Cup that looked pretty dang good. And I don't mind making.
By the way, brief aside, how is Leela not gotten? She got to the US Open final a lot of cod beater. How is she not advanced further? I would have thought she would have.
She's been tweaking her game in ways that is not helpful, Like she's kind of coaching back getting coached backwards to a degree.
I don't know.
I don't think she's I don't think she's got the right team around her because she's gotten, she's she's growing, like she's gotten more physically impressive, but yeah, the quality of her game is just not coming along.
I'm sorry.
Yeah, basically, yeah, no, it was just every I think Fritz, make him your third choice. I put him over Zvera personally, but I also I also would say he should be like four to one head to head against Alcarez and maybe six to one against Center.
If I I always say this, if I came to you from the future and I said, guess what Drew Sinner nor Alcarez, neither of them won this? Yes, who won it?
You would say, Okay, so that's gonna happen. That's potentially going to happen at some Slam this year, right, Yes, you will, probably the US Open, though I don't think it's here. If it's if it's not, if it's not one of them, who is it. I'll give it to Medvedev just because the quality of tennis we've seen from him at this particular tournament has been impressively high through the years, and he could just tree and be very tough to defeat and take one of those guys out.
I told you I don't need to coach.
No, yeah, I mean I yeah, I mean I guess that the the the easy answer is Djokovic, But I really that would really surprise me.
With what's thy seven years old? Thirty seven years old.
Yeah, like like that. When you asked the question like that, Like my immediate response is, well, who's won a title here before? Because that's probably who it's going to be, right, like.
You know my media response, My immediate thought was how they get hurt?
Yeah exactly? Well yeah, like were they in a car acentded together? So they got Yeah, they got they got arrested on their way to Melbourne and deported for something really weird or whatever. But the yeah, they defaulted by hitting a ball woman in the in the throat. But yeah, the the there are random stuff like that happens. But no, I think it would have to if there's a surprise, it would have to be someone who's won this tournament before,
in my opinion, and that would be memoed of. So that's my that's my that would be my go to.
I broke your floor. Any other names you wanted to just throw out.
Or just get back to Cinner versus Akras? How do you price that final?
Uh, Sinner will be your favorite? And minus one forty five?
Okay, I'm not that far off. I'm like in minus one sixty five. But when I look at the prices for Center and alcraz out right that screens bet. Alcrez alright to me, like his numbers big, and there is a couple of things.
I think Kelly asked me that this morning on the on the radio side, he was like, is thatarez?
Yeah, yeah, I think it is. I think it is, And there's this is So I think official pick for me is going to be, in fact, the only official bet I'll have on this podcast outside of the long gone number that took on one bench. It's just going to be Alcaz out right. I don't really care about where he lands top or bottom. He's just got to be one man and it's young Center, And is that possible?
Gil?
Has he ever beaten Center before? Did he play him three times last year and defeat him all three times? Yes?
He did.
Like he literally is able to raise his game and is in the head. He's a little bit in the head of Jannick Center. He's got a very impressive head to head record against that player. And I would also say that kind of the one thing that distinguishes their game in a neutral setting is that Center gets more free points on surf serves a little better. Alcrez to me, from what I've seen just with looking at some of the practice tapes so far, looks to have changed his surf.
Is there is a slight difference in the kind of fluidity where there is less of a like a hiccup, less of a cock back. That is, I think is going to give him a little bit more variety. It's going to make the it's going to make the serf feel faster, even if it's the same speed, just because of the fluidity. And I think the I think the easier points are going to be there for him this year on this hard court. And uh, I think he completes the career Slam in a fortnite from now.
Wow, career Slam already? How that happen? Which is just written? It just seems like yesterday when I was betting on him in a random clay court tournament at the end of the Earth, late at night somewhere in South America, when he was like fifteen years old or something.
That's the other thing, like people aren't really getting like maybe Sinner can get better too, but I think Sinners basically there. I think he's at his the peak of his powers. Like I'm not sure he's going to get more lateral quickness or more spin on his like on his forehand right like he is. Also they both had I think Aucre still has more to grow.
They've also both had injury problems. But you get the feeling that sinners are more debilitate.
Yes, yes, absolutely, And look no further than the fact that alcraz won the French Open with a freaking bomb elbow on his forehand side, like he couldn't spin the ball on clay, and he still won the tournament. For crying out loud like that's absurd.
It's awesome. I'm glad we're here for those again, for those and I'm glad everybody's you know, tuning in here live. Thanks to everybody tuning in live on Twitter. It is if you are not a tennis better it is. I I can Maybe I shouldn't speak for Drew, but it's my favorite sport that I think it's Drew's as well, definitely, and it only it only gets more awesome now here. And you're so right about the football point, which is tennis has the decency to just conform to the NFL schedule.
It's a beautiful thing.
Yeah, you know, what's you know, it's a disaster waiting to wait until the Super bowls over, and then deciding I'm going to bet college basketball, right, good luck? Good luck with that, uh yeah, or.
I'm gonna get into the NBA.
Now what is what's going on in the NBA or there at the All Star break? Good luck? Like you know, everything's been solved in the bat in basketball by the time you get done with the playoffs. Tennis you can solve stuff. And I guess a couple of kind of
final tips here. Watch the weather, keep an eye on the order of play, keep an eye on players who spend five hours on the court in the heat, yes, really four four plus hours on the court in the heat on the men's side, if they're playing in the middle of the day down there, like there is a like this is this should be elementary geome, elementary geography. This is in the Southern Hemisphere. And the sun in Melbourne in the month of January is literally like being
under a magnifying glass. If you are playing a four hour match in the sun, which is what any any of the courts that aren't covered is going to be, you are drawing dead in your next match. And so these are kind of the small sort of soft wrinkles you got to look out for. Like a lot of these players took a bunch of time off at the end of last season, went on vacation. They're literally just like like you and I, kind of getting back to work. Holidays are over, let's let's get her, let's get her
get in shape. And you can pick that suff up by eye if you're watching. So there's a lot of fun wrinkles and fun ways to win match by match at the Australian Open that don't exist in the other Slams.
In my opinion, we.
Should leave it there, But I feel like I have to say two words before we leave. Nick Curios, is he even playing?
I think it feels like he has some weird sponsorship thing or something. It feels like this is a big gimmick.
Is he out feel I don't know. To the last article I saw and he got reaggravated. I don't know if he's playing it. I don't yeah, A match or two, like he's not serious.
Right, I mean, I would pick my official prediction. He gets a some sort of weird center court match against the player he should beat based on his serve and it goes five sets, and the crowd loves it and it's the most entertaining match of the first week and he probably wins. And then with Druss that's kind of a yeah, that's kind of the good guess.
But I'm glad you included the point, the point about cumulative effect of for a long time. It's as big as anything.
Sinner won this tournament last year because Medvedev spent twenty hours on court. I will go to my grave Cinner was going to lose that match the way Medvedev was playing unless big. But Medvedev ran out of gas. Like that was a five set win for Center, because Medvedev was like, but I think he played four or I think he played four or five setters into that one and then just completely hit the wall after winning the first two sets, and you could see his strategy was like, look, man,
I got to leave it all in court. I just I got to break him early. I got to get him to quit. I'm not making this. I can't I can't win a long battle here. I'm just I'm out of gas. And that was I had a lot of Center into that tournament, and I had an absolute like shove once you know, once the tide turned in that third set, it was like it's over, Like he can't, he can't get one, he can't, there's nothing he can do to preserve for a fifth. Here it's over, and that's kind of the way I played out.
So last last thing if Ega versus Naiomi, and I agree with you, Fiatek versus Osaka friendch Open was the best match on the women's side of the entire calendar.
You're completely agree.
What was it on the men's side because I cannot come up.
It was a painful one for me for a couple of reasons. It was Djokovic gold medal over Alcress seven six seven six. That was I think that was his goodbye.
That was it. That was the last thing he needed to do for his career. Yeah, yeah, you were heavily on on Arlidos there.
I had a lot of outcrest to win the gold and I had I had a lot of Spain to get over four and a half gold medals, and they ultimately got there. But it took some very very fortuitous things to happen to get to five. They they they they just got their nose over the line. Alcarez winning the gold would have been a lot, a lot more comfortable, but but yeah, you know, I.
Don't like it.
Yeah, that was an impressed. That was the most impressed I've been with Djoko Rich since he beat Federer at the Wimbledon and twenty was that eighteen nineteen Federer's last wimbled or was last final?
Remember that I couldn't tell you eighteen or nineteen. Yeah, I agree with you though that that was his last selbum. That was the last thing he needed for his career. That was the one thing he didn't get. There's his goal. Man Drew appreciated, Man, thank you so much at Whale Underscore Kapper for Drew on Twitter Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, which, as I told you on the radio side, I will go more than a few days without somebody saying to me, I love those two guys on that show. Really seriously,
I'm not making it up. They love you guys, you know, banter between each other.
We got to have you on that off season. You've never been a guest on the on the opsiting pods. We really slacking the off season now in terms of really trying to get good guests. But we got to get you on these day on these days, talk a little French Ship and talk about Indian Wells. Yeah, do it?
Are you going to Indian Wells this year? Are you going this year?
I'm going to be out there then. I haven't got tickets yet. I haven't for sure secured it, but I really hope it works out.
I went, I went two years ago. Remind me not to drive again through the desert.
Ooh, it's bad. That's a long long.
There is a there is a oh, dude, there's a moment there where you're like, if something happens to my car, I mean, you know what.
Else there's a there's also a thirty five minutes southwest flight from Las Vegas to Palm Springs.
Yeah, idiot, idiot didn't do that last time. I'm like, this is gonna be awesome. I'm gonna drive. It's so great, jackass, Thank you, Drew, appreciated man. Good luck with all of our bets, round by round.
Appreciate it man, of course, say take care.
Thanks for listening everybody. We'll do the post draw Friday morning. Was that coke? Thanks for listening?
All right?
So now after Drew was kind enough to come on the podcast, do the pre draw Australian Open with us now the draw has come out, actually came out thirty six hours ago, right after Drew Dinsik and I did the pre draw portion of this podcast. So now we get to react and bet. Some of us already have our bets with the draw out there now. So thirty six hours later, Zach Cohen joining me to talk the Australian Open draw, Zat Cohen on betting on X on Twitter. Let me read, let me tweet out the live link
because I didn't remember to do when Drew was on. Zach, how you doing, man.
I'm doing well. I'm really excited for this tournament. I feel like, you know, the tennis offseason is really short, but I feel like I did get recharged a little bit and ready to go.
I felt like I knew, well, I had other things going on, but I felt like I need at that offseason.
You know, yeah, I could have used another two weeks, but once I saw the quality of play at the United Cup and stuff, I was pretty much pulled right back in.
The Thing that got me was the end of season finals. The WTA finals to me were weird this past year. So I think that sort of threw me off where I was like, wh isn't this supposed to be outdoors? And then there was like nobody in the arena watching it, So I think that was set. That was set. Zach, by the way, all his stuff at vson dot com, not just tennis, but every sport that he does, college football, pro football, you name it, Zach is talking about it. But Zach is a tennis guy. Zach works at the
Tennis Channel. Tell everybody what you do at Tennis Channel, because you do number of things.
Yeah. So before coming to Vison, I used to work for a company called ten ten Media, which was a content creation company and one of the partners that we had was Tennis dot Com. So I was effectively serving as the senior editor there for a few years under a guy named Ed mcgrogan who worked with me at the company. Now Ed is full time with the Tennis Channel, as you know, the senior managing editor there, and they needed somebody to come in and help them with betting.
He reached out to me. So now I'm helping them just in a freelance capacity, like a story a day during big tournaments. But I do do a live show with them that will be on later, you know, at four pm Eastern and yeah, just do a lot of betting stuff for them, but I will be handling everything internally with vs in and I do give out more picks or Vson than I do there love it.
Okay, so you want to start men's or women's? Would you pick your poison? What do you want here?
Let's start with I thought there was a clearer picture with the women's.
Okay, let's start with women. I was going to say that since we started Ladies with Drew also, So this comes out and I'll tell you what I've been saying on the radio side, and you tell me how much you agree or disagree, which is this really worked out for EGA more than any of.
Yeah, so I wrote it. I wrote it at vson dot com. I had no interest in being on EGA in this tournament, and then I saw the way the draw shook out, and it's just like you got to put someone in front of her, the cold beater, and I don't think that there's anybody that can do it until the semis. So I looked at it. I did want to kind of stay off early in the season.
But even with you know, struggles on you know, hard courts, faster hard courts, she still had the best record on hard courts last year any player in the WTA Tour. She's won a lot of tournaments on this surface. I know that the major stuff has not been great since the twenty twenty two US Open, and she has not been great at the Australian Open. But she's still a great player, and you have to Yeah, like I said, you have to put someone in front of her the computer.
I don't think that there are many players.
So did so let me just sort of explain that to folks. So basically, when the draw comes out, there's a random nature to it and what ends up. What ended up happening, at least by my numbers, is out of the top ten hardcore data players on the lady side globally, Ega ended up Q four, Rebakana ended up Q three. The other eight are all on the top half of the drum. And so what does that mean
for Ega? It means you know what's your potential path Siniyakova volley nets, then it's Alexandrova, rod O'Connor or and it's a Mova in round three. Then it's like any number of kalan Skaya, Azarenka or Cheva in round four, I'm just making up names at this point, right to just add some interest.
It's not even her.
Yeah, who just pulled out?
Barbara Krasikova.
Is that you said Jacoba pulled out? That's right. Quarterfinal would be Navarro, Cassakina, Jabor put and Seva. So you're right, like until the Semis, which would be Rebakkina or Pulini or Keys or Collins or someone like that. Right, It's just she couldn't have gotten more favorable and so did you? Now did you bet her her quarter price? Is that what you ended up doing?
So I took IgA plus one oh five to win the quarter and I put two units on that, but I also did put Ega plus four eighty to win the tournament, and that kind of goes with the fact that I have Rebecca ten to one to win the tournament. And I would just love to get to a situation where I have both semifinalists and yeah, which everyone wins wins, and you know, I have a good number in the final.
I mean, I don't know that I think either of them will beat Sabalinka on hardcourt, but yeah, I feel really good about one of the two getting there.
I have Ega plus a five point fifty and five to one to win it all. The five to one was post draw, which I was shocked that it was still out there, and I am. I have not made the eagle quarter bet too, but I absolutely will be making that. I think there's an even money that's still available, so I will make that bet. I'm with you there beyond that. On the lady side, did you make any other quarter or outrights?
Yeah, so I have Rebecca to ten to one. I took that before the draw. I just kind of saw her floating out there before the tournament. I didn't really understand it. I do think that at the very worst, he's the third best hardcore player in the world, you know, on quicker courts especially, just a really really good server in a big, powerful game. And there's a lot of
weird stuff going on with her coaching team. That's the only thing I'm really nervous about is you know, she brought it on gor Ivanissovich, Novak Djokovic's old coach, got rid of her old coach, who was suspended by the WTA, but then last week announced that he's going to be joining the team in some capacity. Even Nissovich is not happy about it. I feel like nobody is happy about it except for her, So I'm a little bit nervous
about that kind of circus. But just in terms of draw, I thought that she made out just as well as Ega did. Maybe a matchup with Madison Keys that I'm worried about a little bit early in the tournament, just because when Keys is healthy, I think She's capable of winning any quick court tournament. So we've seen her play really well this week in the tune up events. A little bit nervous about that potential matchup, but I do feel really good about Rebakna facing Ego in the seventies.
I Drew and I talked about this a little too in the pre draw, that thing with Rebakna and this sort of drifts off into non tennis stuff, right, because we all agree that Rebakkan is one of the best players in the world, But that, like off court coaching stuff is like bleeds into a creepy territory where it's sort of like this girl okay, like no one can do anything about it, but it's like, uh, someone needs
someone might need to help her. Is this it feels like this brainwashed I think was Drew's where I think is the right word, which is it feels like a brainwashing situation where you're like I and I don't know if I can getting back to the benning, and you alluded to it. It prevents me from betting, it really does, because I'm like, I have no idea when she'll just go on the fritz.
It's it scares me. What makes me feel a little bit better is that she just has played the last few weeks, she has looked a little bit like lighter emotionally, and maybe that's because he's not there. I do think Evenissovitch is a really good coach, but you are right,
it does seem, you know, borderline creepy. Without speculating too much, Hopefully she's able to kind of shrug that off and just know, you know, pulling out of tournaments with weird illnesses and injuries, and if she plays, she's got a really good shot here.
Yeah, what what you're referring to is she did that multiple times last year, right, multiple times. It was often a stomach ailment, as I recall, but that wasn't the only thing, and it was like four different tournaments. But you're right, when she played through her results were great. She won a few tournaments, but then the rest of the time she was just strangely pulling out the other bets that I have that I made and I don't usually I'm one of these guys that I'm like, I'm
betting on Ega. I only bet. I don't have any of that. I'm not doing this golf thing where they have like twenty outs, but this one I did. I predraw. I bet Mira Andreva and Carolina Mohova both at twenty five to one. They're on the tough side of that of the bracket, but I and I think Andreva's less of a shot. She might be a little too early, but like Mohova, I genuinely has a shot here.
I took some heat on this for Twitter. On Twitter like three days ago, I said that I think Mahova is like right on that level of Rebakna and Coco, and I think that maybe Coco played her way out of that with the dominant United Cup run after you know, the WTA finals. I think that she has looked a lot better from the forehand side of the serving aspect, like maybe she's now on that level of Ega and Sabolenka.
But I do think Mokhova is just right there with the top tier players, so I would agree with you, like I think she's going to win a major at some point very soon. She just has just a complete game and it's just beautiful to watch, honestly. Like you, there's Federer esque, you know, on the WTA side, and I do think it's only a matter of time before she wins one. We saw her kind of go toe to toe with Ega at Roland Garros, which no one really does. So I feel pretty good about Moukhova Andreva.
I think it's gonna happen soon as well. It's just we got to get her out of Sabolenka's portion of the draw because I think she could beat some of the weaker players in terms of power. I think that Saboleanka just out muscles her and it's just a physical matchup that she's gonna have trouble overcoming until she just gets a lot bigger.
Who gave you a crap for that take, By the way, I don't think that's a controversial take, just random.
It's kind of I guess it was putting her on Coco's level, and Coco has a head to head edge there.
Yeah, but Coco's got to serve problem still, Yeah, is there any other Is there any other player on the lady side that that triggered a bet or that you think at least is worth mentioning. I do like your thinking about Mattie Keys. I mentioned that with Drew also, where it's like you just never know with her, right, you never know if it's a plus game Mattie Keys, it could be something.
Yeah. I think a few of us when we were talking Wimbledon last year, thought she was going to win that tournament and she ended up getting injured in that Pallini match where she was up of double break I think in the third set and maybe in the second set too, and I just kind of her body failed her. But I do think the Keys is capable of mickey a run. I think if anybody were to beat Rebakkina kind of early in the tournament, it would be her.
I did circle Katie Bolter just I I wonder if she's going to play off the demon or the crowd presence. I think they're going to root for her like she's an Australian because they are, you know, engaged now, and I think that she's a very talented player in a portion of the draw that I do think is somewhat open.
I'm not really sold on Jasmine Palini. I think that what she did last season was impressive, but I do think that, you know, there's a huge difference between going into every tournament as an underdog and then now being expected to go out and make quarterfinal runs, you know, tournament in and tournament out. I think that she's a prime upset candidate. And yeah, I think that Bolter has got a shot there.
I have Bolter number fifteen, so like, not really far that, not really that far down right, in terms of a one year, six month serve percentage return percentage winner data, she's fifteenth. I mean that's something to sneeze about, right.
Yeah, she's a really talented player. She kind of got a really nice all round game, and she's another player that, like, I think she'll be top ten very in near future. So it wouldn't shock me if players break out here. I do think the Australian Open is a tournament where players do tend to break out. It's just a new season, a lot of weirdness. I think that, you know, I last year that was where I called the center shot
to win the Major. I thought that he would kind of surprise everybody and just you know, take the field by storm. I think this is a tournament where you can make a name for yourself pretty quickly.
We were just talking about this about the football game between the Rams and the Vikings. How like it's going to be hard to quantify how the Rams and to some degree the Chargers players right will be affected by the wildfires in southern California and they're playing a football game. It's like, you know, when you're handicapping, and I get it. Obviously, the real, real world ramifications of those things are much
more important than handicapping. But it's obviously the corner of the world from where we come and so you try to you try to solve the puzzle of all of this. Just does speaking of non quantifiable things, do you give a boost to Australian players at the Austria Alien Open, Like you know, if you're I don't know if you're on the fence about a in past years about a curios but let's say this year about a demonour on the men's side, or you just mentioned Katie Bolter on
the lady side. Does it give you a little bump on them.
Yeah, I should mention Bolter's not Australian, but I just think that she's going to get an Australian bump. But I do I think, especially with the Australians, it's I think it's kind of tournament by tournament. I think the French players struggle at Roland Garros because there's just an insane amount of pressure on them, And in the past I felt the same way about Americans at the US Open, although over the last few years they've had a huge
boost from the crowd. But I do think that most of the Australian players do really get a nice bump from the crowd. I think Demonor played really well last year up until that tough loss against rube Lev, Like I thought you had a real shot of continuing that run. Kergios, Cocanakis, these are guys that like have spoken glowingly about loving playing, you know, on the smaller courts with those rowdy atmospheres.
Yeah, I should be clear about Bolter. She's engaged at Demoneur.
Yeah, yeah, Australian, but but yeah bye law.
Soon, bye by law soon.
Yeah.
Okay, so I think we have we covered it on the lady's side, because I think that's it's it's interesting to me. It's more interesting than the men's side, right because in terms of it out right, I think right because the men's side, you know, I was saying there's value on Demoneur and Demitrov by raw numbers, but it's
almost when I say the word value. The difference between value on the lady side and the men's side, to me is on the lady's side when I say it like they could legitimately, that translates legitimately to Q quarter wins and to outright wins. On the men's side, when I say like there's value on Demonor and Dimitrov, it's kind of performative right where I'm just like, okay, like technically there's value, But do I really expect those guys to beat alcaoraz or Center when it comes down to it.
I don't you kind of feel that way? I do.
Like when I write up, you know, sleeper columns and stuff like that for Tennis Channel, I'm usually prefacing it by saying these guys are sleepers, but I'm really only looking for them to get to a certain point of the tournament so I can hedge. There's not really something where I'm looking for them to actually win. It's really
just not gonna happen. I think that maybe, like we'll see Wimbledon at some point, like a big server goes on and wins there, But I don't really see there they're being that much opportunity for kind of tier two, tier three players on the men's side, there is opportunity for that on the women's side. I guess we should mention, like I do think Sabriolanca is gonna win the tournament. I just didn't want to play it at the number. This is just the tournament where it almost feels like
a home crowd for her. She's very comfortable here. The crowd absolutely loves her. It's not like the US Open, where they're rooting for all the Americans and kind of getting in her head a little bit. The faster conditions also makes it really tough to beat a player with her type of power, and I think she's just gotten so much better as a server, especially with that second serve. And I also just I thought her drop shot was making a lot of progress towards the end of last year.
So it's not going to be all power power power with Sabolanca anymore. I think she's mixing in some variety and I just think she's going to be even tougher to beat on a faster surface moving forward.
And I should make clear that with my quarter bets that I'm going to add on the lady's side, they are they are, They're same as the outrights, but I'm not I'm not making a quarter bet on Andreva. I will make a quarter bet on Tech and on Mohova as well. Hope it was about plus four fifty five to one somewhere in there in that range for her.
That's interesting.
Yeah, that that's a pretty good price, man, I think. Yeah, the the before we get to get to the men's side, I just want to ask about Tennis Channel because I don't know who's curious about this, but I certainly am. What is the what is the gambling atmosphere at this point? Like I know there was a moment there where they're like, I know, like on broadcast they still do a good job of sort of like throwing up in match numbers
after the first set. Grett Hayter's pretty good about understanding what that means, you know, implied probability of that kind of stuff. But like dedicated shows, where does that stand?
The dedicated shows live, you know where we're living right now, they're like on Twitter, YouTube, nothing on the main channel yet. I don't know if there's any plans to do that in the future. Slowly leaning into it is kind of
the way that I would put it. I think that they're you know, they're traditionally covering just tennis at a major aspect, and I think that most people that are watching Tennis Channel don't want to hear about the gambling, but there obviously is a small sector of people that do. And you know, the Tennis Bets Live show that I was doing with them last year that we're doing this year was growing in the second half of last season, So I think that there are a lot of people
that are very interested. But I'd say it's kind of a dipping the toes in the pool situation.
Yeah. I feel like that sentiment that you just mentioned though, is thrue, which is we have to remember at least I have to remember, right because it's in our DNA that oh, we're betting all these sports. But like most of those folks, not only do they not care, there is a segment that actually dislikes it immensely still, right.
Yeah, I get I get a lot of comments on the Tennis Channel articles that are like this is poison. Why are you poisoning my feed with this? And I think that a lot of the Tennis you know, viewing audience is Indian Wells type of people where you go to Indian Wells and the average age of the people is like seventy.
I've been to Indian Wells and I can attest to that. It is like, bring, you're bringing the average age down.
You have adeo that might have been shot there, the one that Kelly posted on a numbers game. You might have shot that there.
Have you ever been to Indian Welles? By the way, it's it's so I went there.
I want to say it was four years now. It was gorgeous. It was incredible, gorgeous.
Absolutely. Okay, to the men's side, I feel like we have a we have a sympatico bomb here that we both bet and I maybe we start there. However you want to start on the men's side.
We can start there. I mean, people are going to look at it and think we're crazy. So that's kind of why it's fun to start with it, but I don't think we're great both, We're not crazy. I actually did it in a different way. I took jaw off on Seka and Andre rube Lev to win quarter two, and they were playing in the first round. He was one of those it's one of those bets immediately. But I do think that the draw opens up very nicely
for both of them once it happens. And Fonseka is the one that you might look at that and say, who the heck is this guy. He's an eighteen year old that just won the next Gen ATP Finals, became the third eighteen year old to do that in history, joining Carlos Acaaz and Yonick Center. This is a guy that absolutely dominated Challengers last year. Yeah, it's a nice list.
He dominated Challengers last year, played really well on the ATP Tour, and if you watch him, I think the elevator pitch for him is like if you watched him from the top row of Arthur Ash it looks like Janick Sinner playing in Egos Fiatak's clothing. He's an on cloud He's an on cloud guy. He's wearing a goofy outfit, but he plays exactly like Center.
I will give you. So you and I came to this separately in different ways. By the way, I bet on Seka to win Q two because I'm not again outrights. You know, look at center at el again, it's performative, and I raise my hand as saying I can say there's value on someone else, but it feels performative, even though I did sprinkle a little on Demonor and de Metrov because it's you know, somehow I can resist the
fact that I had to put something on it. But Fonseeka is And again, if you're just doing this by the old and I shout out our buddy Dan Weston, who's to me is the guru of all of this.
With tennis data, you look at Fonseka's number and it's funny you bring up EGA because part of the reason that I was ahead of the EGA curve before she joined the main tour is we had access to her numbers of the off the main tour right before she elevated to the main tour, and so you could see the gaudiness of those numbers and you're like, oh wow, Like even if you step up competition, right, that's always the worry in tennis handicapping he's like, Okay, those are
numbers or his numbers. But now even within a tournament, you're like, okay, here's beating these players. But now they got to play this player, so it's a step up in competition. So how much does that to really translate? But if it's at a certain level, it tends to translate. And Fonseka's numbers are through the fucking roof, I may be, so they are really unbelievably hot, to the point where you're like, okay, this is on the radar, right, And
I got to tell you something. This is a player that I've bet on before Visa dot Com slash picks for all of my picks and Zach's picks for VSA subscribers all year throughout the tennis calendar on all surfaces. I've bet on him before, and I have to tell you, these numbers kind of snuck up like this wasn't the case, and now I'm looking at him like where did this
come from? But they are they're out of control where if you know, And it's a small sample size on the main tour still, but if you are to buy into them, you should absolutely be making a bet on him. Here I think and so I did at fourteen to one in a to the quarter. Let me be clear, for the quarter in a quarter that is, I mean, let's be honest, it's Fritz Medvedev and others. Right, you
just mentioned Rubelev, but there's others. There's Mapechi, Paracard and Mofie and Poprin who's speaking of Australians that kind of thing. Shelton is in there as well. But it is the Fritz Medvedev quarter, which is why I'm making the bet, right, It's not the Alcoraz or the Ciner.
Yeah, and I identified this on Visa dot com as well. I did. I did a full draw breakdown and I noted this is probably the quarter with the most opportunity. I think the Medvedev is somewhat cooked. I don't want to rule him out completely, but when he was, you know, the best version of himself, he was a very very good server. That is gone. I mean, his whole percentage is plummeted from like eighty seven percent down to eighty percent. He's no longer winning those you know, service games easily.
That means that he has to outgrind his opponents every single match at some point. That catches up to you physically this tournament. I believe he did not play in any tune up events, so I'm kind of curious to see if he's even even able to do that. He has a very easy, he like, very early draw, but once he plays a really good player, I really worry about him being able to just win his service games
easily and just out mustle them in any way. He has to be able to win points against a guy like von Seka who can cover the court at really really high level. So I kind of am no longer there with Medvedev and Fritz. It wouldn't shock me if
he made the semis again. I do think Fritz is probably the fourth or fifth best player on tour now, but having to go through potentially GMP or Shelton, just all these big, big servers, those are matches that are kind of like fifty to fifty and just seeing him coming out on all of them is a little bit
unlikely to me. So I thought this was a really good opportunity for rube Lev to either make his first semi or fon Sekah to break out, And I did want to kind of pump the brakes on Fuen Seika before the tournament, But when I saw the draw, I was like, if he does get by this match, there's really no one stopping him until Medvedev. And I do think he could beat Medvedev.
Right now, and people should understand that if he loses in the first round, it's like not a shocker either because it is rube Lev. No, but if he gets by that, oh boy, by the way, with Rubelev him like having this quarter final ceiling thing or not all.
I think it's not a thing. I don't believe in like that type of stuff really at all. I just kind of think it's you give yourself enough shots at the back, you know at it, you're just going to break through eventually. Like he's so freaking talented that I would That's why I kind of think like I would like to see him play Medvedev because I think he
would whoop him. Right now. I don't think Medvedev can stay with him right now, and I kind of would like to see him break through and get to the semifinals instead of breaking his knee and against van Seka and cutting himself by hitting his racket into it. That's going to be really hard to watch. If he goes down early, but.
At least he's a very calm player when things go wrong.
Yeah, he can handle the first round loss to an eighteen year old as well as anyone.
Oh yeah, it'd be great.
Sorry before we move off on. It's like there was there was the leap last year and then there's been this really weird mini leap in between the end of last season and the start of this season where he went to Camberra for a challenger beat a bunch of you know ATP like names like Harold Meyo, Jacob Fairnley, Ethan Quinn, didn't lose a set in five matches there. Then he went to the qualifying and just beat up on everyone, including guys that he was competing with at
the challenger level, you know, all of last season. Like there has now been a leap where this is a guy that is a top fifty ATP player at the very least, and it's just a matter of time before he breaks into the top twenty. It is hard to do it, but I do think there's a real shot he does it in twenty twenty five.
What other men's side thoughts do you have after the draw has come out? I mean, does this.
Joke.
Oh oh, I remember actually my headline in which I think was yours two, which is this is the first thing I said. I said it to Kelly on the radio side, which was, you know, if you've watched tennis for as many years as we have in bed on it just the fact that Joker is a seven seed, right, is like, oh wow, he's a seven seed. It's thirty seven years old. And so he ends up in Alcarez's quarter. That's you actually gave him a shot at winning this, didn't you? Before the draw.
I took Djokovic plus four fifty before the draw, thinking that he would possibly be able to avoid that type of quarterfinal matchup. Honestly, I no longer really like Alkaraz or Djokovic. I just think that the task of potentially having to beat you know, whichever one it is in that match, it's if it's Djokovic beating Alkaraz, Okaras beating Djokovic, having to do that and then face Zerev and Center in a three match just gauntlet. Seems really difficult to
imagine someone coming through that. Well, anyone can gates Akrez.
Yeah, that negates my next question, or maybe it doesn't what I was gonna say. Do you think Alcarez is a little long here, like there's actual value on him to win it all.
I think that what you're seeing with the price is bicking in that is that he you know, has to face Djokovic who beat him, you know at the Olympics, has to face Zverev, who has had success against him in the past, especially on quick core, and then would have to go and face Center, possibly very fatigued in the final. So it wouldn't shock me. I mean, this is probably the best price you're going to get on
Alkaaz all season. So if you do want to take him to win a major, and you want to take it along on odds, I would guess this is gonna be the longest we're going to see him all year.
I really feel like this is no like massively amazing comment, but I really feel like we're gonna learn a lot about Djokovic year, which is, yeah, you know, we just saw him get beat by Opelka, and it's if he doesn't perform well here, I think everybody's brain will immediately toggle to you know, again what Drew and I were talking about, which is, well, we said this at the Olympics last year, so he got his gold medal. This was the last thing he needed in his crown of
amazing things. Yes, he has twenty four. There is one more thing. Obviously, he is twenty four Majors, which, for those who don't know, that's the most for a man. But Margaret Cord also has twenty four women's singles title, So Djokovic in getting twenty five would be top of the heap, and in that way anyway, if he cares about such a thing, some people do.
But if he.
Doesn't perform well here, I think we will quickly go to, oh, yeah, that was it. It was the gold medal and now it's he begins the Rafa farewell tour.
If you yeah, I think it would either be in Isa has to be here or Wimbledon, And I think that's kind of it. I feel like, if it does not win one of those two, I think I would look at him as kind of on his last legs. Having said that, like, he's a really driven guy, and I know that he got himself up for that gold medal. I kind of think he's going to get himself up for the challenge of beating these two guys one last time, and I think that bringing in Andy Murray showed that
he's not complacent. I don't know how that's going to work. Murry's never been a coach before, but I do think that it shows that he is looking to continue to sharpen his game, and man, I did think this was a pretty tough draw for him, just in terms of early round matchups too. Like Tonamas, mccotch is a player that I think could potentially beat him if he's healthy. It's a guy that I think has all the firepower in the world and has struggled with cramps and stuff
throughout his career. Once that goes away, I think he'll be a mainstay late in tournaments. And I think that Yuri Lahychka is another player that if you were to face him in I believe he'd be the fourth round. Just kind of has the serving power and just overall baseline power to give him trouble if he's not fit and playing at his best level.
I have after you get through the obviously center Alcoraz, but then through Djokovic, de Minor, Dimitrov, Zverev, Fritz Rubelev. I'm just talking about hard courts without gradation on these Draper Medvedev, Tommy Paul, the thennet's of the next players on tour after like the usual suspects on hard Poprin Korda mensik Lahkah.
Where do you have because that's one of the only other futures I made is I took Ojjialia Siem sixteen to one to win quarter four.
I have him a bit down, but he's he's one of those players that often defy the numbers. You know. It's like there are certain players, like, first of all, the big servers always do where I'm like, no matter what the numbers say, I'm always like, do I really want to bet against Opelka here? Do I really want to bet against a patchy Bearrickard? They kind of go out the window, right because there the serve numbers are so good, but then the return numbers are crap, so
it kind of kind of doesn't translate. I don't have him very high, but he's one of the non serve bots that seems to defy those numbers pretty consistent.
Yeah, I feel like I don't know if it was the end of twenty twenty one or twenty twenty two now where he was playing out like a top seven level, and I do think that there's a chance we end up finding that again at some point. And he's another one where it's like it's like my rude bloed fon Psycho Play, where he can go out in round one. He plays Jon Leonard Struf in the first round, and that's gonna be a servers battle. That yeah, servers battle, that's almost a coin flip. So a little bit nervous
about that. But if he makes it through there, I think he's got the best shot of facing Zvera out of anybody else in a potential quarterfinal match.
I remember a year ago Struf was the kind of guy where like, oh my god, I can't believe his numbers are so good. Those numbers are muted. Now they're back to where we once.
Were, weirdly thirty four years old. It's like he had a late season, late career prime.
Right, that's right, thirty four wow. Okay about that before we get to because I haven't really dove into the first round matches yet, but it's there are some great ones, like it is startling to see, oh wow, Sloan Stevens is playing Sabalane. Not that Sloan Stevens is gonna beat her. But Sloane Stephens is playing Sabalanca in the first round. Is sort of like, wow, that's amazing. You don't see that jo or Yari? Who did? Who did Jari end up playing Nicholas?
It's jar and Center in the first round, like very recently a top twenty player.
It's crazy to me, right, that's a crazy first rounder. Before we move on though, the Q four because obviously Center is Q one, Alcarez is Q three, have that right? Three? Yes? With Djokovic and I mentioned, you know, the fun sake play in this is the Medvedev Fritz Q two. Do you see anyone challenging Zverev and Q four?
So that's where the Ajala seem one is. I took him sixteen to one. That is one where like I said before, I'm hoping he just gets to that match and I have a sixteen to one to play with if I if I could hedge it, great, If you know Zverev gets bounced early, which I don't really see, then yeah, then I would feel really good about it. But I thought there was some opportunity on the top half of that draw of that quarter where I believe it was Tommy Paul and Ali Asem, but I think
it's I think it's a jali as Seem. After seeing in Adelaide, I thought that he looked very, very sharp, and I think that he has a really good game for these conditions. I did note, though, like immediately this is a great draw forers Verev, because there's just I don't really love him on a really fast, low bouncing court. But I don't really see any of these guys challenging him unless like Kerrgos gets there and he's somehow looking great.
Actually every one.
I have him losing in round one. That's one of my few plays I have so far. But if he does get there and looks sharp like he's, he might be Zverav.
Yeah, I'm about to dive in after this, But the curios is in that Q for it's curios. Tommy Paul, Yakub Mensik, who we've I've made a lot on caspar rude is in there, but I'm not really feeling rude right now. And then of course there is the art or feast f I l s for those who don't know. And then there's Kena Shakori, who has had this post injury resurgence and for those who don't know, Kedah Shakori has the greatest best of five record in the history
of tennis. So he's one of these guys where I will bet on him hoping that it goes to five. It's the weird I feel this about no other player, right, But I'm like, I want him because I will outlast at the opponent. So he's just an interesting guy too, because you never know with him.
Yeah, I was gonna say, maybe it's a prime I'm never to feels like a really good fit set player to me. But although he's probably lost a lot of really big matches in the fifth now, but I will I will say, I agree with your sentiment about Rude. It kind of pains me because I am a big Rude fan looking forward to kind of finding ways to back him on clay. But I honestly could see him losing in the first round. John Munar is playing very well coming into this tournament, and Mensic in the second
round is a really tough one. If Mensic gets by Nikolas besils Vili, who is a very good qualifier. There are a few qualifiers that are very, very talented.
You remember one Basilishvili won Indian Wells during the champas really good for.
A very long time. It's like he rips the ball. He's one of the biggest forehands I've ever seen.
I'm just glancing at these, At some of these first round matches, I'm like, Wow, Davidovich Fokina against Junshang Shang is a great match.
Yeah, the Fritz quarter, the Fritz cater quarter is like all blockbuster matches in the first.
Round, some of these, Norri Barrettini, how do you feel about that anywhere?
Yeah, Yeah, he's really competitive, though I don't see him kind of getting out for that. To the ones that I've already put in, I've already put in two. I have him Petchi Para card minus one thirty eight against Gael Month Feesh and Petchi Para card. Not quite on the fun Saco level for me, where I'm like certain he'll win majors in the future, but definitely think you can. I think there's an argument to be made that his serve right now is the best serve we've ever seen.
He's got a massive, massive first serve and then his second serve is like a top five first serve so I think it's just it's impossible to beat him just because he guarantees a tiebreaker.
Well, let me just ask you this. When you said minus one thirty eight, is that the price you bet it or is that your fair price?
That's the price I bet it to win the match against month Fiest.
Yeah, because this is now a complete coin flip between him and month Fees. I get his minus one ten on each side that I'm saying.
I wonder if anything one Fees has played well over the last couple of days. I wonder if maybe that has something to do with it. But man, I don't think one Fees could beat them. I think that there's too many tossaway service games and you just cannot do that against Petri Para card rube.
Lev is a minus one seventy five favorite over Shaofon Seka found sake about plus one forty two coming back. I have not dove into these numbers yet, so I'm just like reacting on this. Oh, here's one that just my eyes go to it. I'm like, ooh, I wonder if this is a bit. Nakashima is plus one seventy against Ben's shelt.
So I wrote down like fifteen plays that I'm looking at and I just have to knock and I start to just kind of eliminate them once I researched them. One of them that I wrote in was Nakashima plus one and a half sets at minus one twenty five, so if he gets it to a five setter, he wins. I just think that there's not much that separates those two. Nakashima is a really good server. Both these guys are
kind of great servers, bad returners. You're going to see probably three four time rakers in that match, and those are the types of matches where I just want to have, you know, an underdog.
Curios is only a minus one twenty two favorite in his match, which to me is is the is the odds maker's way of saying, we have no idea what we're getting.
I did take fairly plus one fifteen.
You did, okay?
Yeah. And the only other one I've made, just the last one that I made on the men's side, I took while Rinca I put like, I put a half unit on this plus two hundred to beat Sonago. I feel like wa Rinca is good for a first round juiced up match and then he loses in the second round. Is like his body breaks down, he gets tired. Sonigo also is just a terrible returner.
I'm not even seeing that listed where I'm looking at bookmaker off Sure there's bad Oh it is plus yeah, plus twenty five. That's day Well, at least they had listened at day two, our buddy Todd wish or ear least my buddy Todd wishing them. He uh, when we would play tennis, he worked on this uh, this top spin backhand, and every time he would do it on me, he would shout. He would shout in the middle of he'd be like Vavrika right or Stantus lost? He would say,
and you know what, you know what happened. He did it so much he sucked up his elbow and I can't believe it.
Oh no, that's terrible.
Soon he's not a thing right here.
He I mean, he's got Michelson in round one, and if he gets by that, he's got a pretty good draw to the fourth round.
That's a toss that Yeah, I was gonna say Mickelson is good on hards. Yep, where is Michelson? Let me see that one? What's the price you're looking at oh Man. Okay, so I have Michelson here at plus one forty. I gotta look into these because there might there might be a bunch of batches here lady's side. What have you bet so far? Around one anything?
The only one that I really like so far. I already took it as Emma Navarro minus one thirty eight against Peyton Sterns. I know you're a Sterns guy. I'm a stern Sterns guy. I feel like there's a lot of Danielle Collins there, but her serve is just so bad that, like a really good returner like Navarro is gonna get a lot of breaks. And I just kind of think that Navarro is a decent enough server to get by that match and just kind of picked up
some really quality big match experience last year. Stearns is a little bit green.
I don't know if I'm a Sterns guy, Zach. I don't know if I can't get there, like every she lets me down so much. Navarro's interested because Navarro now made a lot of money betting Navarro last year. She was woefully under priced in the early part of the year. I think we want to match. I want to say, when she played Sablenca, was like she was like four dollars.
She was a four dollar dog. And then once she started winning those matches, of course, then people recognize, oh my god, she's one of the she might be one of the best players on tour. She's sort of actuated back a little bit since then, I think, but you might be right. I mean, that's that's an interesting first round match between two Americans, Navarro and Stern.
So you did, can I you?
I bet Navarro. I think she's just a little sturdier. It's not much, there's not much of a difference between the two and from the baseline, but I think she's just a little sturdier and like more trustworthy. But the only other one that I have circled right now? Can I interest you in Sophia Kennon to win a set at plus two seventy five against golf.
Sophia Kennon, for those who don't know, won this tournament. She won the Australian Open. We were I was on Sophia Kennon. This was right before the pandemic, so people don't remember it happening. People probably wouldn't remember it even the pandemic didn't happen. Like, Sofia Kenner won a major, do you want to slam? She won it? She is super steely, Like if she's playing well, she's a tough out. Yeah against Coco, Yeah, what's your number? What'd you say your price was?
It was plus two seventy five to win a set?
Yeah, I would have to look into but kind of juicy.
She is like as erratic. She's as erratic as it gets. But there's there's a lot of fu to her game though. And I do think that like playing another American, she goes on the court and she believes that she can beat them. There's no part of her that is like, oh I don't belong here. She's got another toxic relationship only hers is with her dad. But she is very, very talented. I did text a coworker like when she won that major and was like, that's never happening again.
But I do think that there's a chance she pushes her to three.
Wow. I'm just like some of these matches again and again for tennis hardos, this is the most awesome thing in the world. But benchic Astapenko is an opening round match with benches and minus one ninety six favorite Ostapenko's plus one fifty eight coming back. That's a I mean, Pinko has not been her normal self. Let's make that get But still intriguing to see that that's a first
round match. And then there's I mean, I'm gonna have to go into these, but there there's definitely somewhere I'm like, Okay, Radu Khanu is a favorite over Alexandrova.
Interesting, Yes, I was curious about that one. I don't trust Emma's like fitness and health right now, but I do think she wins that match like eight times out of ten if they if they were to play it in you know, normal conditions for both of them.
Well, if that's eight times out of ten, that's a play on a Radikano based on that, well.
She is she is injured last week right or a week or two ago.
Yep, yeah, I do like Paulina.
Paulina kuter Matova minus one nine against Magdalena Freck.
I'm glad you brought her up. So I made the horrible mistake of playing some of these matches in Brisbane and Adelaide amazed the Australian accent. Again, Kudermatova was the only thing I did right, repeated yep. So for those who don't know, this is the little sister of Veronica kuder Matova. Veronic der Matova, pardon me, I'm pronouncing that with a correct emphasis on whatever syllable was a top twenty player in the world at one point twenty five
something like that. Higher it might have maybe higher, yeah, maybe even higher, and was always a player that was, you know, well known. And Polina Kudermtova is twenty one. I want to say, I think Veronica is twenty seven. Polinaku Deermtova is twenty one. She's playing great man like she I think it was was it Brisbane where she lasted way longer than Veronica did, So that's an interesting I'm glad you brought that up, because she's been the only bright spot for me here. Pre ossi open I do.
I do echo what you kind of said before, though. I think there's a chance Jabor ends up going pretty pretty far here. I think that a lot of people have kind of written her off because of that injury filled last season, but she does have a pretty good draw. She's in the ego quarter that I think is kind of wide open at the top, So I honestly put her in as a question mark to be in the fourth round, and I think that there's a chance that
she gets there. She's got a few you know, toss up matches early, but just I thought she looked good. In the last couple of weeks. She lost to Miro Andreva in a match that was a little closer than the scor se Justin. She lost to Putin, and I don't think that there's anything wrong with that. I think that those are two really tough players.
Again, all of Zach's plays, all of my plays at vison dot com slash picks for VSA subscribers. Zach and I aren't making any money off at it's for you know, subscribers at vson well worth. I think that the picks alone from everybody as well worth it. But may I just sort of, you know, stump for us the fact that tennis is like every damn day of the year, right from from this point to you know, the end of the US Open. For sure, every day. You definitely get your value on that.
So what did we learn here?
We're both on fan seka in different ways though, right you took them to the quarter and you you how did you manipulate again, you went.
I took him and rube Lef, just both of them. So if he loses that first match, then no worries. I'll just root for rube Lef.
But uh, I think, yeah, I like that. Yeah, and then we're we're kind of we're simpat to go in terms of EGA's draw. But you still think Arena wins Arena Sabalanca wins this tournament in the end, I think so. And then yeah, and my sort of again on the lady side, as bullish as I am on EGA, I think Carolina Mhova bets right now would do you very nicely here, either quarter or even outright like. I think she's that good, I really do.
I might add I might add the quarter play.
Yeah, dude, She's always one of those players too. And she was hurt for a long time here. She got to the French Open final against the EGA, she somehow lost that she had a good shot at winning it, and then she got hurt and so she was away for a while and people kind of don't think of her in that upper tier. I really do, like I do. And if it's not the upper tier, it's like the smallest notch below it at this point, and I don't think she's priced accordingly. I really don't, so.
She never is.
I did.
I want to say it was the Roland Garrols last year. I got a really good price on her to win the quarter and she won it.
Yeah, and just I mean just I know people like probably want some context here, but it's like, you know, I was saying to Drew that ego on hard courts like all through last year, even when she was again, I love it when people think she had an off year. I meanwhile, she's still winning five tournaments in a slam that kind of thing. But on hardcore she still had the best numbers, and I acknowledge that they have fallen a little bit. The gap has narrowed, but she still
has the best right. And so what I'm talking about is if you think of one hundred as average, ego's like at one ten, Sablenka's now used to be like fourteen, one fifteen kind of thing is like one tennish Sabalnka is more or less one oh nine ish, and Mohova is right there ahead of Go go for my number with Rebakin a fifth, So you know, there you go, think the thing with ego is it's.
Like she's most beatable on these quick surfaces. That's really what it is. Like there's a little bit more risk involved with taking her, but she's still unbelievable. It's like, I do think she's gonna have a really big season, Like I like the coach that she hired. I think that she has upped her you know, service speed a lot. There's just some stuff between the ears that she's got to figure out. I think that when she starts playing poorly, she completely beats herself.
That's what it is. That's exact, that's exactly what it is. She is still she's twenty three years old and you know, five slams okay again, yeah awesome. She's won twenty two tournaments on twenty two and most of those are are hardcore. They're not clay, right, People think, oh, she's a clay court player. No, she's a great hardcore player. But you hit it, which is she puts way too much pressure on herself, or at least whatever pressure she puts on herself,
she does not deal with it well. And so when she gets in a you know, you can think of the players who have beaten her, and I can almost name them all, right, where it's Fidelino or Noskova. Yeah, Ostapenko, I think is the only player. Maybe Rebakkna also it's either both of them or just Ostapenko. It's the only player on tour that she doesn't have a five hundred record or better. I think we're Bakka. But when I say not against Ostapenko, I think it's oh to four.
Yeah.
But generally speaking, if you are not a hard hitter, she doesn't have trouble with you. But when she does face a hard hitter and things don't go well, she does have a she has an issue between the years and once she overcomes them, and I do mean when and not if she will. Yeah, there's no telling because even Sabalanca, like who had the yips with the serve, somehow she got past that and now she's, yeah, you know, a great player. But imagine if she had never gotten past that, right, but she did.
I think I think a lot of people, a lot of people credit Sablenca's team being very like light and an area off the court with just kind of taking pressure off of her ego could probably benefit from that. I think, honestly, there's a lot of similarities between Ego and Carlos and the way that they handle things on the court when they're going poorly. I don't think Alcoraz where's it like with the anxiety that Ego does. He
kind of just gets a little bit of frustrated. But both of them, when their a game is not there, they start to try to problem solve and they have a lot of issues doing it.
Yeah. Yeah, I wish Ego Ego was as good as Carlos is. Carlos is pretty unbelievable that yeah, but Eagle will get in stretches where I'm like, what's happening? Why she hit? And everything out? Yeah, anyway, this is gonna be awesome. I hope people got the nuggets they wanted here, both pre draw and post draw. I can talk about tennis for a hour, I really could. I'm looking forward to the first round this begins. Don't now, don't hold me to this, but I want to get this right
because this is always the thing with time zones. Right, So in Australia, while we're watching football on Friday, Wait a minute, hold on, that's not true. Well we're watching football tomorrow.
Wow?
Is this starting a day earlier than normal?
I think it starts tomorrow night, and I think they have a three day first round.
That's what it is. So this year. I always remember this starting Sunday night during an NFL think layoff weekend. But we're a day ahead, Glad. I looked, Zach.
I think last year they switched to the I think they switched last year.
Did they switch last year? Man, I think you're right now that you mentioned so. Okay, So while we're watching the second game of the NFL slate tomorrow, this is when the Australian opens, So I gotta get to it, if you know what I mean. Got to get to it, and we'll see how many bets I have here in the first round. My instinct is to like is what you were saying, I think, And we'll close with this.
What you were saying earlier is interesting because there's so many matches, and you were saying, oh, look at fifteen. I mike down fifteen and then I narrow it down. That's the thing with some of these opening rounds and these slams. There's a million matches, so you almost fight against your instinct to play tons of them. And I will tell you that that cuts both ways, right, because sometimes inevitably I'm like, why didn't I play all those matches? And then in time, thank god, Yeah.
I do get carried away. I'm sure people that are watching this, that have been following our ton of stuff can see. I'll have five six days. It's five six plays in a day, and I will have picks. I will have picks up every day, written plays, so make sure you're checking the website for those. I'll put them on the prop bis page as well, but we'll have write ups, Zach.
I appreciated man betting on X for Zach Cohen the Australian Open twenty twenty five, as the tennis season begins with a Slam. Thanks for listening, Good luck with all your bets. Hope we made you some money here. Only time will tell. We will find out and again first round picks at beson dot com slash.
Thank you, Zach,