Thursday morning, June twenty seventh. It is the Beating the Book podcast Wimbledon. Wimbledon a fortnight breakfast at Wimbledon Tennis is third major of the year on grass. It's Gil Alexander. It is Drew Densick. Of course, as always on our tennis pods at Whale Underscore. Capper the host the co host of both The Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molletitor and NBC Sports at the Edge with Jay Croucher. Drew, thank you as always for being here. Man, appreciate it.
Of course. Of course I love Wimbledon.
I wouldn't do it without you. Man and Drew and I were like, should we do this Friday after the draw or is that too much of the weekend thing? So we ended up on Thursday.
Yeah, I'm not long after we wrap this up. I'm headed out to the mountains. I'll be off the grid tomorrow, so I'm gonna have to check on met to find a way to get a signal to check on the draw when it comes out. So this was the only time I could pull this off, So I appreciate you accommodating me.
No, man, So we're flying a little blind but playing the playing the role of Dan Weston our dear friend from Vson who does Tennis picks on a daily basis as well. It's Zach Cohen, first time on the podcast. How you doing, Zach? Thanks for doing this.
Man, I'm doing well. I'm excited to be doing this for the first time.
Yeah, and you just met Drew, Zach, Drew Drews. You guys should know each other. Zach. You do Tennis Channel pods as well, is that right?
Yeah?
I do some writing for Tennis Channel, and then I also do a show called Tennis Bets Live, which is going to be Mondays and Thursdays about wimbled In and that turns into a podcast. So yeah, Tennis Bets Live on Spotify as well.
Awesome. How do you like the Tennis Channel host? I was on his podcast? What is his name again, Mit Michaels. Mitch Michaels, Good dude, Yeah, like mitche a lot. Okay, So here's the thing, and we'll start with you, Drew, because I you know, I bet tennis based on data and so hard courts go very well for me. Up twenty six units in hard courts year. Guess what I've given it all back. I've given it all back on clay, but particularly here in the last few weeks Grass, and
I should know this. Every year the data means nothing because there isn't enough and and I've gotten and when I've been bad, the only thing that I've coupled that with is being unlucky. So it just hasn't worked out. So here we are. I'm curious do you have these sames? It may not may not be for those reasons, but do you approach Grass with that same trepidation?
Oh? Absolutely, yeah.
I mean I think in general, you know, you have you watch enough, you do this enough seasons in a row, and you get a sense of players A, B, and C have a skill set that you know should do well. Sometimes they have results on the pre you know, the pre the seating tournaments, particularly in years past, that suggests they will do well, and then you know you upgrade them, you know, to be trying to kind of account for, well, where were they heading into this grass season relative to
last year's. You know, you're basically just trying to put the puzzle pieces together in a way that you come up with a fair rating for a given player where it counts for you know what is their arc this season to this point, how did it compare to last season? How did they do on grass last season in you know, relative to expectation, and you kind of combine all of those to come up with what you think is a
fair number. And you know, so like a good example is a player like Onstrabor, you know, two years ago, you know, came into grass season absolutely on fire, like off of Madrid title, off of you know, all time performances on clay, and she had the pedigree of grass, and she had a nice run on grass heading into Wimbledon, and so it was just like all the pieces were there, and then you look at this season and it's been a complete opposite telling of the story where nothing has
really gone well for her this season. She didn't really perform especially well on grass. She's had issues, and so I think ultimately you put all that together and I think you have to dock her rating pretty aggressively, even though you know the data would tell you she's been the strongest performer on grass over the last handful of years here.
So that's sort of the process.
That I go through where I'm you know, I have a heat index for a player and an arc for a player over the balance of their you know of a current you know, calendar year, uh, and then marry that with what we know about that player and their strengths to their weaknesses the in past performances on grass.
Slightly more art then, I guess is what you're saying than another surfaces that sound right? Slightly more art then.
No, without question, no, no, without without question.
And by the way, you're being modest because of the year that Jabor got to the finals and lost to Herbakana Drew had a thirty three to one ticket, as I recall on Onbor and she was up a set, wasn't she? Oh God, sorry about that? Too soon? Too soon? On that that was.
That was ten years Yeah.
That was the one. We're Bakaa. She won her her one and only slam and acted like she want to match at the JCC, like she was just completely non plussed by it. Zach Is, I don't know if that fits your approach or or or for you in the way you handicap tennis. Is grass just as good as the others.
I bet a little bit more on feel.
I wish I had a model.
I'm absolutely I want to work on building one over the summer, but I bet a little bit more on feel, so you know, when I get to grass season, obviously there's a little bit less for me to go back and look at. But yeah, I, like Drew said, like you got a bet you have a good feel for who's going to perform well on a quicker surface, like you can give a bump, two bigger servers, people that
end points quickly, that can play with the net. I keep it pretty simple, but yeah, I've had some success on grass, treating it like I do the other surfaces.
But yeah, this week's been killing me.
So yeah, this morning killed me, and yesterday killed me as well on grass, and today, by the way, on grass, like this is the this is the the squirrely time of week where we have three walkovers on the women's side, like half the half the field is like, I'm just gonna go to Wimbledon now, thanks, thanks for tune up. Okay, let's start with and again we do not have the benefit of quarters here, but I just want to start on the men's side where Drew you were texting me
this morning. It appears that no veak Yokovic is a go right, All signs point that way.
Yes, the rumors of his demise were greatly overstated, apparently, yes, And honestly, like we all had a little bit of an inkling of that, right, Like you know, the details around his surgery never really trickled out. And I mean, honestly, thanks to Joel Embiid, we're all experts in the meniscus surgery space now, so we know that there are different types of a bucket handle tear and a repair versus a you know, just a removal.
You know, like you know, you.
Can't throw a k one by us now when it comes to knee injuries. And you know the fact that I'm not saying he was not injured, like he pretty clearly like was dealing with something in a French at the French Open, and and like just taking a giant step back, like he is stunk all year, Like he just has not been close to the same level that he was last year. And you need an evidence, go watch his semifinal against you Center on his best court
on earth. You know, in Melbourne he was miserable, and so I think ultimately, like is him showing up and making a run here, particularly with the two seed. Will
not doubt it in for even for a minute. But him winning this tournament means he's still going to have to be get the better of a Center and and maybe you know, depending on where the draw lands, maybe an Alcras and a Center and those happening at the end of a fortnite after you know, he potentially gets challenged by you know, some some middling players and you know, the end of week one, I'm just not seeing championship
potentially for him. That said, he's clearly the most accomplished on grass of anyone in this draw by by you know, huge margins, and so I think, you know, ultimately, if this turns into a you know, Center over Djokovic final, then I'm not going to be suppressed.
Djokovic going for his twenty fifth singles Grand Slam title the only thing he's chasing right now. I guess the only competition has Margaret Court twenty four on the women's side, Djokovic twenty four on the men's side. Twenty five would be the top for either side. And I don't know if he's running out of time, but age will will matter here if it hasn't already, So this might be the one he wants to get. Sinner Zach is plus one seventy five. Yanix Center is the short shot at DraftKings,
actually co short shot with Carlos Alkarez. Both are plus one seventy five. Djokovic is four to one. Everybody else is fourteen to one or longer. In terms of the outrights here before we get to your thoughts on it outright that might have value in your heart of hearts, do you believe the winner comes from one of those three guys ciner Alcorazer Joker.
Yeah, I'm not gonna bet it because the number is just not there. But I do think Sinner is going to win this tournament. I just think that, you know, I took him aout the front sh open pretty much a number grab. I just thought that was the last time we'll see sooner around plus five hundred again. I think we turns over transition over to grass. He's first in the world and hold percentage over the last fifty two weeks sixth and break percentage. This is a surface
that really should suit him pretty well. And I think the hip thing is pretty far in the pass now, to the point that he's probably been able to work on his cardio over the last four weeks. I think that that played a factor in him cramping up at the French Open. I think that he's heading into this tournament fresh. I thought he looked good in Hallow, where he beat just a slew of big servers, just like
almost a poopoo ladder of like serve bots there. I think he's looking good and he's in good form, and this is the best surface for him.
Yeah, think about that when Drew, when you and I were talking before the French Open, We're like, well, Center might not play. It's the hip. It might be irresponsible of his team to let him play. Alcarez had the arm injury, I don't know what he's gonna do. Djokovic had lost a couple brutal like one. Who is it that he lost? It was a tabilo that he lost to somebody where he was like, we were like, my god,
he got crushed, so like we didn't know anything. And now now that it looks like Joker's playing, it just appears at all three that none of this is an issue.
Well it's oh, hold on, let's not go that far.
Okay, what's an issue?
So the so for Cinner, like he barely really got tested at the French right, like he came through his quarter and played nobody. And you know, I think I agree with Zach's point. If Cinner had had a little better conditioning heading in there, I don't think he loses that match to Alcaaz in the semis. And I think Alcaaz was Harry lucky to win this title. I'm just
being completely objective. Alcaraz is somewhere between seventy to eighty percent of the player he was last summer, like in terms of just what he's doing on the tennis court.
But you think that you think that's injury induced.
I think it's injury induced. Maybe it's fitness. So I don't know. I honestly don't know what the deal is.
But it's he's like like if you said, oh, we got a twenty twenty three Alcarez versus twenty twenty four, you know, what's what's the line. It's like, you know, he's pretty clearly minus two fifty over.
Exactly the number I was gonna say, yeah.
Like over over the current forum, and like it was still enough to for he still had enough to win the French Open, and honestly like the way he won it, like he just let his opponents come down to his level, like by making these matches five sets, and like, okay, like that, okay that that that worked well for you
on clay. I don't think that's working on grass, and it's not working on against Center on grass, and it probably not working against Jokovic on grass the way it did for him last year and his title run.
So not to mention Jr. Not to interrupt, but he got broken until the umpire came down because it's clay and went I believe it was, so you're going to continue to play? I mean that was that was everything in that match, right.
I I look, I love Carlos akrez as as like a player and a part of tennis. He makes the game so much more enjoyable. And him winning the French Open over Zverev was big for the sport, yes, and him now having kind of all three surfaces slams is big for the sport. And I hope he has a long and awesome career because he has he brings the
same joy of the game that Feder did. If Feder is my favorite player of all time, and so I'm not in any way trying to disparage him, but the final Zverev lost the final more.
Than al Karez won. In my opinion, I only saw.
Flashes of kind of vintage outcraz like five six times during the entire run he had in the French Open.
And I'm not even talking like stretches.
I'm talking like individual points where he kind of you know, produced that level. And so you know, if he wins the win, if he wins Wimbledon, here like, I'll take my hat off. Like he has the athleticism, he has the goods, he has the skill set, he has, you know, all the tricks in his bag. We got him to win Wimbledon last year and one of my most fun wins of the entire twenty twenty three calendar. But you know the I watched the Draper match very closely at Queen's.
He now went in this tournament, I don't think.
Okay, so kN same question for you. We'll throw out Alcoraz for you though, Well, we'll get to some long shot value place here. From you, it sounds like in your heart of hearts, you believe it's either Center or Joker.
Yeah, I'll call the final right now, Center three zero over.
Djoovic, Center three zero over Djokovic. Okay, Well, there you go, Wimbledon people, you're gonna have a crappy final. Okay, center, by the way, trying to win his second slam out of three. If that is the case for the calendar, you're twenty twenty four, all right. So beyond those guys, Sasha Zverev, who just got beat try still trying to win his first slam. He lost in the finals of the US Open the year that Djokovic hit the lines girl with the ball. The lines were, we're with the ball,
and so it was the team z Zverev. Oh my god, one of us besides the Big three gets to win a slam match, and it was on Zverev's getting the fifth set up five to four and he gacked it. Then this one the ump kind of helped take it away from him. Or Coots, now we get into some Orcott's a bit of a serve bot. Sixteen to one Medvedev always live. Eighteen to one. Draper, who I know, Zach, You've got stuff to say about you have a bet on.
I think Draper is down to twenty to one. And then just in terms of other sort of serve body kind of people or guys who can win on the strength of their serve. Barrettini twenty two to one. Where are you, Milos round It one hundred to one? Milos Roundache coming playing, He's off, he's out, he's out. Well, DraftKings trying to steal money from people.
Then I miss that tale's oldest time in the tenniest features market over there, they always have players. I'm sure Petra Kavito is probably on the women. She might be in the field. She's in the field.
I bet on the one anyway.
I'm just looking, Yeah, I'm just looking at some others here.
All of those names, I mean, except for Draper, all those names nothing I think. I think the Medvedev and Zaverev and that class of characters being kind of discussed or bandeaed about, and the top five is absurd to me.
I'm not seeing that at all.
I definitely would say that after your top three, you know, the fourth and fifth should probably be Draper and demon are based on what we've seen so far on Grass this.
Year, Demona are twenty two to one. Can I interest you in a little? Gregor Demetrov at twenty eight to one. Again, this is and this is the problem with Grass because like when we talk clay and we talk hardcourts. I can look in these numbers and say, here are the people that really surprise me with numbers. Here are the people who you know on men's and women's And maybe
there's there's value here. If we did the same exercise with grass, we're really only talking about weeks, like a handful of weeks worth of data if I go back a year, if we do that, though, Gregor Demetrov has as good as numbers as anybody, So I just want to throw him out there as well, so does Alexander Bublic by the way, players like that, but it's just not as meaningful here. And so again you say it's Demonor and what was that? Who was the other one that you put it out there?
Draper and Demon Draper and shown they've they've shown you high enough quality on grass on this cycle that you have to take them seriously. Plus they have they just have the game for it, right, Like Demon Tromp is just a good all round player, but I you know his loss to you know, he's he has some absolute like what the heck happened losses at Wimbledon over his career. Stan Vravrinka got him here. Stan Rinkle, who like notoriously
hates like this particular tournament in this surface. Uh, he's lost to Gasca, He's lost to Stevie Johnson, Bublic got the better of him.
He lost to Stevie Johnson again.
And oh no, he lost to Stevie Johnson in twenty twenty two.
What I forgot this? Like, oh good lord.
So yeah, he has some absolute just laughable results on grass. I don't think he's really figured out the surface, and so I think he's a pass and you know, honestly, like it's gonna sound and what do you call it recency bias? But I'm fine if you want to put Tommy Paul sixth after Demon Aaron Draper, Yeah, Deman Aaron Draper pretty close for me, four or five, and I would put Tommy Paul six.
By the way, we have we have two tournaments going on the men's side right now, but they're both two fifties in Majorca and Eastbourn. But of the four grass tournaments that have been played on the men's side a couple of weeks ago, Stuttgart and the Netherlands, I don't I'm not going to try to pronounce herto Genbosch Uh, Draper beat Barrettini in the final. In Stuttgart, Musetti and Nakashima got to the semis. There, Demonor, to your point, Draper and Dimino, Demonor beat Korda in the finals. In
the Netherlands, Umber and Greekspor got to the semis. And these are the five hundreds. Last week in London, Tommy Paul beat Mussetti in the finals, Korda again and Thompson Jordan Thompson got to the semis. And in Halle last week Sinner took down her cuts, with Jang, Jjen and Zverev getting to the semis. So that's what's happened on grass. That's the That's the entire escort season, by the way, including the ones that are going on right now.
Do you want a little cheat code for that tournament that you are struggling with? Just den Bush, gen Bush, Den Bush?
Really? Do you have a cheat code for Bad Humburg? Do you have a cheat code for that as well? No, Zach, If so, if we extended past the big three, I sort of hinted that you like Draper, but who would be your guys at four and five and six?
Yeah, I'll be honest.
I grabbed Draper at one hundred to one, but I absolutely don't really think you can win the tournament. We spoke about this a little on a numbers game, but it's just a number grab. Like I do think he's one of the five or six best players on grass, but I do have concerns about his fitness still, he's
a little bit unproven in best of fives. Tends to always have a match three or so rounds in where you know, it starts crapping up, loses a five setter where he loses to a player that he definitely should be until we kind of see him break through that, it's gonna be hard to believe in him, you know, winning a slam or even getting to you know, the
subbies or finals of one. But yeah, the talent is there, the ability on grass is definitely there, and obviously you know, he's a hometown favorite, so that'll.
Help him out a little bit.
But I would agree kind of that demon Or is right there around the top five. And Tommy Paul is a player that I wrote down like these are players that I'm not looking at in terms of outrights, but you know, to maybe win quarters or get to the quarters, I think that, Yeah, Tommy Paul, I'd be a little bit interested in Quarda depending on the draw. But I'm a little bit nervous about the way he plays big points.
But the talent's there for him as well.
And I will say I'm a little more interested, I think than you guys in hube only because like, there was a pretty good run last year at Wimbledon. I think that he played Novak really well, just lost his cool and the tie breakers and couldn't get through there. But a four set match against Djokovic at Wimbledon's a pretty good performance for Hubie.
Who.
Yeah, just it's really really hard to break them and that's important on the surface.
I completely I completely missed the roundage news another shoulder injury. Now, good god.
I don't actually think that's it. It's he didn't get a wild card. They were gonna make them go through qualifying, and he is like, my body's not gonna make make it through quality because qualifying wimbled.
It is tough.
You got to play the best of five to get on your third in your third round, brutal uh. And then you know, if he had qualified, I don't think he was going to go anywhere. So this is just not getting a wild card took him out of this one.
You wanted to say something after Zach Drro, I'm sorry I interrupted. I don't know if you want to say something afterwards.
Let me just throw no on on Huby.
Yeah.
Oh, I have a weird relationship with him on grass because his numbers, like a couple of years ago, were so good coming in wins Halla, and then he just completely lost it against David Davidovich Fakina in round one and it was just like like this was your chance, man, this is this was it, Like you could have made a big run here. And then the next year, of
course he comes back and he goes deep. But you know, he's a he's he's he's lacking a little bit of, you know, kind of an X factor in terms of anything special about his game beyond his serve for me to get involved with.
It's it's so interesting you bring his name up. I used to say this in when I used to handicap baseball on a daily basis. I used to say, Irvin Santana. Do you remember that picture Irvin Santana for the Twins. Irvin Santana was the guy that flummekesed me the most, so if I backed him, he would get shelled. And if I faded him, he was like Cy Young, right,
so he was the guy that always killed me. Ubero Cots might be my guy on the Men's Tour, Like if I back him all of a sudden the serve he gets broken, right, And if I'm fading him, you cannot break him to save your life. That's my that I don't know. Is there a guy on the tour that does that to you? That's my guy?
I think.
I think I'm on the wrong side of every tafo match I've ever bet.
Yeah, there's there's always a guy. Yeah, all right, any other names we need to know? Nick Curios is not playing. That would have been fun, but no, no fun, that was taking on.
I think the right qualification here is that there are three possible winners.
Yeah, realistically yeah uh.
And then there is a tier of players who I'm kind of intrigued to see if they land in like Carlos's quarter, right, because you're going to get a good price on like that tier of guys. If everybody just assumes Carlos is going to win Q two or Q three.
Whatever, wherever he lands.
And uh, and that includes that includes the Drapers and the the Demon Hours and the and the Tommy Tommy Pauls and maybe even the her Catchers of the world. And that's that's realistically, that's your top eight. And you know, the players that are coming into this just hotly, hotly overrated from what I can tell. You're looking at the outrights or Medvedev, Zverev, Rube love Bartini to a degree just because we haven't seen him put together consistent, good
enough tennis on grass to this point. Uh, and just fit same fitness questions for him. Siss Pass is coming in way overrated.
You know, who is he even going to show up? Is caspar Rude?
You know, is not even making an attempt on grass, not even not even going to try. Uh, you know, he's He's gonna be hilarious to see who draws.
I hope he.
I hope he draws kind of an un known uh. And there's a good bet against him early in this tournament. But but yeah, I think Taylor Fritz is overpriced by market. Holder Roun is overpriced by market And uh, I think that's about where the list ends of people who could make a run in week two.
Can Guy Almonfie get to week two.
He's playing right now in my Orca. I don't think he's going to be long for Wimbledon.
Bo Zach and I. Bozak, Yeah, Bozak and I had Bautista Goot this morning, so that was fun.
I looked about as bad as possible in a win, by the way, like he was not holding each land, which is what you would expect from him in a grass court.
So it was I would not say he has a.
Chance with Bautista. Good died three times of that match before he finally died for Good. All right, Women's side, I think that's I think that's great final advice there, Drewis. So if you can find that once the Alcarez quarter is established, that might be the one where an opportunity to exists with one of the one of the folks mentioned. Lady side. Let me just give the results of the four tournaments that have happened so far, not the ones that are going on right now, but two fifties a
couple of weeks ago. They reverse the two fifties and five hundreds. Samsonova beat Andrescu in the finals. In the Netherlands, Alexandrova and Galfi got to the semis in Nottingham, Bolter beat Pliskova. Pliskova has a great career on grass in
her older age. Now, Radu Kano and Dion Pari got to the semis there, and then in the five hundreds last week, Jesse Pegoula beat Anna Kolinskaya, Yannick Center's girl Coco and Vika Azarenka got to the semis there and in Birmingham, which, oh, Birmingham was also a two to fifty pardon me, putin. Seva beat Isla Tamjanovich and Kocierreto and Potapova got to the semis in that, all right, So the lady's side much more interesting on this surface. This is not This is not clay, where Ego reigns.
Rafa Nadal supreme on grass. She's won twenty two tournaments in her career, none on grass, not a one Arena Sabalenkas plus three to twenty IgA Siatek world number one currently plus three fifty Lena Rebakna, who won this tournament
a couple of years back at five to one. The aforementioned Cocoa Golf plus six point fifty, Osaka thirteen to one, who scared Ega in the French jabor aforementioned sixteen to one, Marquette Vandrosova who won this last year sixteen to one as well, and then Jesse Pecula, Emirodi Kanu, Mira Andreva, Madison Keys, all between twenty to one and twenty five to one. This is far more interesting in my opinion, and Drew will start here with you. If we do the raw data again a year back, it's not like
clay and hardcourt and we just do grass. It is actually Ega, surprisingly at least to me on grass, who has the best numbers, followed by Madison, Keys and Jesse Pegoula, two Americans before you get to sabal Anka and Rebaka. For what that's worth. How many different players can you even put a number on can win it on the women's.
Side, Well, I think we learned last year that anyone can win. Yes, uh eight, I.
Think I honestly the Vandrews, the Marquete Andrews of the run last year was so impossibly unexpected.
Do you remember you and I didn't even mention her on the Wimbledon podcast.
Why would we Why would would we have that was a response.
I think she had two She had two career wins on grass heading into that tournament, and then one seven.
But what what?
What? What the fuck just happened?
God damn it even even more than that, Like you watched back some of those like, I don't even like she didn't even really win as much as like her opponents just capitulated like out of the blue, including the final. Yeah, It's like, I'm like, I don't were we more surprised that she won or was she more surprised that she won that tournament?
It's tough to say.
I was. I was in Korea during that, during that run at wimbled last year, and I remember like checking the scores at the weirdest hours and just being like this, what am I? Is this the right tournament? What is this? Yeah?
Do they have? Did they make? Is there a is this that?
No?
Okay? Really shoot one? Okay?
It was so basically like the point of the matter is that, like, to the degree that clay tennis is extremely lopsided now in terms of wind probability, grass is flat earth, and the players who have stood out all have huge demerits heading into this cycle and honestly, taking a bigger ish price and just hoping for something fun to happen.
Is probably the way to play it.
I'd like to kind of point out two things about this draw, or about the way that that the seating
is shaped. Yes, he obviously comes in number one, and I would like to hear other people's opinions on what's going on with her mindset for this tournament, because like she did, she pulled out of Berlin, which like one reading of that is, yeah, I'm just gonna keep trying to keep my clay form on point for the Olympics and win a gold medal for Polska because it's that's at rolling garrows like that, that's that's not crazy.
Fine, no, no, Uh, by the way, was strong brief interjection.
What number would they have to make her in the Olympics for you not to bet her to win?
That?
Probably minus two hundred dish, Yeah, i'd be It's a small it's a small tournament, it's a small field, and like yeah, yeah, yeah, this is it's a it's a weak field, it's a small field, and it's on chat.
So if she's gonna probably win without dropping.
The set, but uh the yeah, I don't know what her mindset is coming too this tournament.
You said, I'm sorry with house money. Yeah, I don't know, I interrupted. So one one option is she wants to keep her form to win the Olympics for as you put it, Polska for Poland. Uh. The other what was the other mind? And said, what was the other option? That she's just a job.
She just doesn't like playing her grass. She doesn't like.
She doesn't like, you know, like it's it's she's going to She's going to get the money for showing up and playing this tournament, but she doesn't like to like.
I really don't know, Zachary, what's your reads act on that? What do you think?
I have EGA at plus three thirty and it's available at a better number now. I really only took it just because you know, she's first in the world, and whole percentage and break percentage over the last fifty two weeks to serve has gotten a lot better since twenty twenty three. I just think that there's a chance that she almost lucks into finding herself late into the draw, and then she does have to kind of reelin that focus and try to find a way to find the motivation.
I agree that like these some of these players that are playing the Olympics are way more focused on the Olympics. But at the same time, I think that there have been changes to Ego's game that are going to make her more effective on quicker courts, and I think eventually she's going to win a Wimbledon. She's gonna win some more gums on the hard court. So I think you're why not take a chance now? But I would say that's not my favorite bet of.
The I got her at four to one. I did not expect to bet her, but when it was four to one, I was like, Okay, I'll take that. Like her numbers are still good on it, but I will. I respond by saying I didn't think I was gonna bet it than I did, and the reason I bet it was for some reason when she said she said, oh, I can adjust to clay easy. It's no problem for me.
And I know that's more of a commentary on the clay tournament than it is on the grass tournament, But somehow in my brain I immediately toggled to oh, she has no like unlike the French, where the pressure of the world is on her to be rough an a doll like that I can't imagine, like imagine, Okay, you're the female raffina doll, You're the Queen of Clay. I mean, obviously you're gonna win this. And we saw her just sobbing after the Osaka match afterwards, like oh my god,
and she'd never after that. She was just unbeatable. But she is Zack's point. She is free of any pressure here, and she's already won once on once a slam on hard courts. One day she's going to win Wimbledon, Like I'm kind of convinced of that, and it might be, like I think this might be as good a chance of any where. We'll get into the Rabakna questions momentarily, like I don't know what's going on with her. You know,
there's a lot swirling around her. Sabalanca just seems to me to just be so angry about all is an egg you can just free flow here. So I thought it was worth a bet. Not my favorite you get bet of all time, but I thought, at four to one, I'll take a shot on that.
Yeah, I don't know, Yeah, I honestly don't know what's going to happen. The loss to Sidelina last year was like, that was ugly? What the heck happened? The loss to I was a cornet the year before was what the heck happened?
You know? I think the fact that.
You have players in the draw who are just are more experienced on grass, like she could run into one of them, have not be having a great day, and that's it. And so you know, I'm kind of I don't think it's crazy to take a price on her, but I will also be like, you know, like wow, not you know, we should never be shocked when you go wins the tournament, but you know it's also going to be a little bit like wow, Okay, that's interesting,
that's surprising. So I'm going to make what you're going to make a case for for the number two seed?
Please go ahead.
Do you guys know who the number two seed is?
I'm assuming it's Sablenca, isn't it? It's not who's the number two seed?
Doesn't go golf?
Wait?
Does go GoF is the two seeds?
Wait? Isn't Wimbledon the tournament?
Oh?
No, Wimbledon is the tournament where they take license. That's right, I'm sorry, I know.
They Yeah, they I don't even know what I think they did away with that. I think they're just going off of world rankings right now, and Sabalanca is number three somehow. I don't know how or when or why this, Like I like, the math just doesn't make sense to me, other than like Coco Goth had such a hot fall last year and you know, apparently, like you know, the Sablanca must have dropped some point.
I just did pick up on it.
I actually remember. I remember during the French Open, they said, if Cocoa wins this, she's the number two seed in.
The Yeah, so Coco's the world.
Coco's world number two right now, and that matters for a couple of reasons. Number One, she's not gonna have to play you get to the final, if he even get to the final. So she's not going to have to potentially go toe to toe with her.
Bully and totally bliser.
I think, yeah, And I think that if again, like the case is weak, but here you go, you're ready. If there's a player whose delta is more significant from last season to this season on grass than Cocoa Golf,
I don't see it. Her rating this year. You know what she played in what was a very brief couple of matches in the run up to ultimately getting beat by Pagoula and Berlin was way beyond what we saw from her last year on grass where she was lost, and in particular, the match she had against Ahn's Jibor was I thought very telling because you know, again Jibor is a master of the surface, like she's exact knows exactly how to get the most out of her game
on this surface, and uh and Golf I thought, went toe to toe with her until Jabor had to retire, ultimately winning that first set tiebreak, but really nice match against Alexandrova, who again has a ton of credibility and ton of credit on grass. And then ultimately, you know, losing a seven five, seven six to Pabula, who's good on grasses.
That's that's that's fine with me too.
So I think ultimately I'm seeing enough in terms of golf kind of taking a step forward on this surface. Combined with the fact that she'll be the two seed and have a potentially week quarter, combined with not having to play Ega until at at earliest, if ever the final, all that to me spells miss miss Price in the seven to one range, because that everybody else who you would want to make a case for, uh, you know, the super powerful, the you know, the the strong server
serving rebaccan is, the Sabalancas. Like these women are going through something right now. They're not, They're not you know, you know, time for peak performance. The Jessica Pagoulas of the world, who people have always been like, god man, her game is perfect for grass, Like, I'll believe it when I see that she can beat like a top to top level player in a major tournament. And you know, past there, it's just the who's who of people with
question marks and issues. You mentioned the keys I think you know, certainly keys Is is going to have something to say about a quarter, But I don't know if she could win this tournament, and you know, so ultimately, I'm just not seeing anyone with enough all around quality here that I don't am not interested. I'm interested in this price on coco.
Does this mark the first time you've ever made a case for Cocoa golf in any one of our podcasts?
And feels like it, I would say probably probably.
By the way, here are the top ten rankings on the WTA Tour all surfaces. Please don't look as I'm curiously because it's Ego one, it's Cocoa two, Saballenca three were Bakna four? No surprises once we found out about Coco. There. Do you have any guess who five is?
I'm sure it is right.
It is Pagula. Five is Pagula. Then you have Vandrosova six, She's about to lose a whole bunch of points. Paulini seven after her French Open run. Wow, Jangshin win is eight, Sakari nine, Jabor ten, freaking Collins eleven, Mattie Keys twelve. Like if you've given me all the money in the world and be like, where do you think Maddie Keys is rank? Right now, I'd be like twenty one. Well, I'll just throw that out there. Twelve she's great on grass, though, man,
I agree with you about the quarter. She's got great numbers on grass. She's not gonna win at all, but she could get deep. Okay, So that's the case for Coco, Zach, you have a case for somebody else.
I mean, I was gonna make him Outison kis so yeah, me too. I just yeah, I mean, like we talked about how there's a lack of data on the grass court, but you know, forty four and fourteen on grass, nine.
And one in the last fifty two weeks.
Yea, her whole percentage is up at like seventy eight percent on this surface, which is, you know, kind of back to earlier in her career when she used to be a much better server than she is now. You couple that with the improvement she's made in.
Her return game.
I just really like her as a fit for this surface because she has the ability to hold pretty easily, she gets balls back on serve, and she has that finishing power in the baseline game. I just also think, like quietly, she's played as well as anyone this year, Like she's she's a career high winning percentage in twenty twenty four, has some titles, Like I just think that she's playing some really underrated tennis. I think last year at the US Open, she looked about as good as
anyone before blowing that match against sabal Anca. So I just kind of think that she's right for a deep, deep run and potentially even a title at some point.
Yeah, Madison Keys, I'm just calling up her crew. Was that career grass you were just talking about when y'all say that, Yeah, so I'm showing the let me see that. So let's repeat those forty five and fifteen I'm seeing with again. If you do service points and return points win percentage, she's at one oh six point five, which
is not quite elite, but like right below that. So yeah, she has just great pedigree on grass, and I'm with you now, I would have liked it to be a little longer than what it is, quite frankly, like just above you know, somewhere between twenty and twenty five to one somewhere in that pocket is not as sexy as I'd like it to be. But I'm with you there, Zach. I do like it's gonna be interesting to see what
what quarter she gets into on that. Jesse Pagoula has good grass numbers, But you're right, Drew, like on a big tournament, she's never she's never done it. Do you have any faith in Vondrasova to make a deep run?
Here?
Where's your boor?
No?
Neither one?
Neither one?
I mean you boor again, just because she's the master of the craft. Her craft is so special on the surface, like, yeah, she could she could do something, but the idea of her getting into another final and having all of the emotional stuff solved. Okay, stop Menka, Yeah when I see it.
Stop me. When I get to a name. Again, we don't have the draw yet. It's not me when I get to a name where you're like, oh, she could be something if the draw is right, Katie, Katie Bolter.
I'll stop here.
Like she played, she's played so on grass to sear, and I think that the losses she's had have come down to like boneheaded decisions on big points. I think she's got some really really impressive grass court stuff.
Emma rod O Kanu sure.
Also, they both weirdly, they both had like embarrassing losses today that I saw. So I'm a little biased against both of them at this exact minute, right because they both looked terrible today, looked good.
Yeah, that's I mean, this is why I'm bringing up these names, because I I'd like for you to stop in your tracks. Let's get a little more, let's get a little more nebulous here.
Tom Yanovich, that's a weird one.
Yeah, that's a weird one.
To do something special.
Adad Maya is always you know, she's a she's the one that's never afraid to kind of go.
Well, that's that's the interesting thing about her because people think of her as a clay court specialist, but her grass numbers are really good too.
Sure, yeah, sure, I would listen to an argument for sam Sonova, even though she's a no show in big moments.
I want to regularly I want to punch her in the face. I'm sorry, I.
Would listen to a Pawllini argument honestly, really, the fact that she was able to do what she did in the French Open is notable. By the way, I don't think I don't think we should be looking past Pallini as far as like, uh, you know this, She's got a couple of things in her bag that are that that should could be good for grass. The fact that she is a little on the shorter side and low center and gravity like and she can play low balls like that's that's should help her.
May I just say that while Ega destroyed her in the finals, Jasmine Paullini won the post match press conference in a landslide. Oh sure, she was so charming and Ego wash after that was just like, oh.
My god, Yeah, my two principal takeaways from the Frenchwoman's final. Yes if you if you blinked, you missed it. Sorry, But the two major takeaways Pallini is is a gem. I really hope she has a nice little late career arc here me too, And uh uh.
Macn Roe, why are we putting him on women's tennis? Honestly? Like the degree to which he did not.
Give a fuck about that match was like like startling?
Was it was? It also because it was like their last broadcast or something, because they don't have the French Open anymore, you would know better than I.
I don't. I don't know that, but made the comment too.
Oh yeah, all of it was the entire thing, the entire My wife was watching with me and.
She was like, is he drunk?
Like like it was?
It was really really bizarre. And you know, and this isn't new, Like he doesn't know the women's players, he doesn't care about the women's game like I don't, and and like this it was just you know why I was especially stark. I listened to a lot of Tennis Channel. They had amazing commentary for the French Open. Broadly, Courier was a breakout dude. Yeah, dude had no idea he had that.
Oh true, true. Jim Currier, I contend is the best analyst of any sport, of any color, analyst of any sport going. I think he is so good.
Courier high praise, but he was excellent. Yeah, the but even I was doing a lot of live betting during the matches, and the fastest feed was radio rolling Garrows. Like the talent on the radio rolling Garrows is like a plus plus. Like their crews were outstanding, and it was yeah, like hearing the good tennis, hearing Courier, Tennis Channel Radio and Garrison. Then you tune in the women's final and McEnroe just could not, you know, give a bleep that he's even era.
It's just like, what what are we doing?
Are you?
Are you?
I was shocked?
Are you suggesting that John McEnroe has a sexist comment in him from time to time? By the way, how does radio how does radio tennis go? Could you give a little sample of that, like how does that go?
Okay?
So here's the deal, Right, you see people in the you see the crowd shots and and people have their headphones in Yeah, like they're listening to the commentary on radio one gurse, which is truly like live live, like like no delay, and so you're ahead of flash score, you're ahead of the odd screen, you're ahead of everything.
Listening to the call and uh, it's a good mix of like literally like when there's a rally and it's going for real like they're literally you know, looping forehand like like down the line, down the line looping.
So they are doing they'll.
They're telling you the what you know, what shots are are being shot, and they're they'll call they'll call them in and out before the jumpires will like they'll they'll give you kind of more color on what's happening when you're going to get from just listening to the broadcast, because the broadcast they mostly just like let the sound of the rally kind of dominate, and in the on the on the radio call, you get a lot more Wow I.
Would wonder of them. And there's a forehead and there's a backhand, and there's a forehead, there's.
A volley, and they do a nice job of really kind of dialing in on points that matter and moments that matter and giving you the detail then and then when it's just like we're on serve three three forty love Okay, then they're like reading emails and reading tweets and you know, and then just you know, what'd you have for dinner last night?
That type of stuff.
So it's it's kind of the exact right note for somebody who is just watching an odd screen.
That's right. Let me throw out one more name and then Zach, you can tell us what else you bet. Naomi Osaka got a tweet this morning somebody asking me what do you think about a flyer on Osaka, who, of course, for those who don't know, four time Grand Slam winner, all on hard courts, and of course Kavea the scare of her life during the French Open in this pass lamp. Now she's on grass.
Anything I gotta say, Like watching French Open match, I was thinking like Osaka might be a threat at Wimbledon because he's just punishing balls, kind of standing in the middle of the court and just hitting lines. But at the same time, like we transferred over to grass and now it just looks pretty clear that the movement's still not there. She needs a little bit more time to set her feet to hit these shots. So I think it's as much as it might seem like a surface for her.
I don't think it is.
Yeah, I think the answer to that is naome Osaka at the US Open might be a thing, right, given more time and on that surface. Okay, Zach, what else did you bet any anybody else here? Are you thinking about?
No, that's it.
I just want to say, like Drew made a pretty good point about Paulini being kind of like low to the ground, being able to get some balls out like that is something that you know, we kind of talk about the big servers all the time in Wimbledon, but the reason guys like demon Or and Tommy Paul have some success here is because they can defend on this surface the ways that other players can't. So there is some value in having the speed and having the defensive ability.
It might not be as productive as it is on other courts, but it does have some effect here.
Drew, if your advice for the men's side was wait for the Carlos Alcarez quarter and then there might be some value there on a on a Tommy Paul or a Jack Draper or that kind of player. What would be your macro advice here, pre Draw?
I think get Coco now before people, because it seems like people don't realize that she's apoga. She's not gonna have to go through Sabalanca or Rebakana in quarters. The second the the the second seed affords her a really comfortable path, and I think her delta in terms of performance last year to this year is meaningful. So get
Coco before pre draw, post draw. Yeah, shop for a shop for some uh you know, shop for some of the players that we think have a high ceiling in Q two, Q three, uh and uh you know, I would say, take on a wily vet in Q one against Ega. That's my personal that's my that's my approach.
I'm gonna. I'm gonna.
I'm not gonna find the Fiddelina or the alas a cornet, you know, I'm not gonna. I would not have taken swings on that is what I'm saying. But if there's like, you know, a keys, somebody who has pedigree on grass that lands in Q one, I don't mind taking on Ega.
Price there, undressed, scu Andreva, Cassatkina.
I mean, yeah, can if ban Drusova can win, these women can win, but it's not likely.
Okay, And then we have to close, because I really feel like we didn't give enough enough juice to Sablenca or Rebacca. I was sort of alluding earlier to the fact that Rebacca, I don't know what's going on with her. She doesn't look great, she got she's she has withdrawn. I was going through her season, her entire calendar year. I wish I could I had this down. I wrote this all down. She has withdrawn from four different tournaments this year, including the most recent one where it was
I think a stomach issue. It's been there's been a lot of stomach things with her, so like, could you ever like My immediate reaction to that was, well, I can't bet her through seven matches. That's crazy. I don't know if you feel the same way. And then sad Blanka, are we are? Are you just not? Is the price too short? And you're just not interested?
Both both?
Yeah, that's a pretty good combination. I'm not interested and I.
Wasn't interested anyway, and the price.
Yeah, I wish I found that rebacking. I think, yeah, but she's just uh, I mean, you can't trust her.
Right does miss a lot of time and it's always oldest. It's not injury like it doesn't make any sense right now.
On the other hand, if she showed up and she started crushing people, would you be that surprised either, I wouldn't I would at this point, at this point you would. Yeah.
Yeah. I mean, like.
I'm trying to even think when the like the best she looked all year was like pre Aussie.
Yeah, and then she lost that twenty two to twenty tie breaker at the ausse.
Yeah yeah yeah. And and like the fact that the best she looked was off the big long break.
It's not good, you know, Like, I like, something's going on where like the she can't sustain the demands that she's under in terms of the tournaments she's entering.
That's with all. That's what all these withdrawals are.
And and you know, in general, uh, you know, she's making some deep runs, she's beating the players she should, but she's making it harder than it ought to be, uh, you know, going you know, three sets regularly this entire run.
Ye, she goes, notably at Miami.
Yeah, she's one. She's You're right, she's when she's played, she's one. She's won three tournaments this year. She won Brisbane before the Aussie then she got then the blink OVID twenty two to twenty. She won Abu Dhabi right after that, and then Lady.
She looked so good in Brisbane that I was literally like, oh my god, I'm betting her so much this year, like this is like this is her breakout, Like holy crap, she might end world number one. Like that was going through my head watching that, you know, Foray, and then it just went. It just went sideways for her super quickly.
And I mean, yeah, she won, shook her. Yeah, but I mean like, okay, you're right, like so, and then she got the finals in Miami. I mean, she's had really good performances, but here are all the withdrawals, finals and caught her where she lost to Sciatech. She withdrew from Dubai gastro Intestinal, she withdrew from Indian Wells gastro Intestinal, she withdrew from Rome, and then she withdrew from Berlin, which is most recent after getting to the quarters in
Paris and Paullini beater. So yeah, and then she didn't she have that pissy press conference also right where she's like the same stupid questions. Yeah, by the way, I don't know what that accent was so that was.
Not her Kazakhstani.
I don't know what that was. I was like French frenching it up for some reason.
All right, No, I'll go on record. She has a To me, it seems like she has a toxic relationship with her coach, and I think she changes her team. I'm out.
I think you're right. He's the coach, but I don't know. I can't remember his name off top. I can just google it. But he's the coach that is all, always talking throughout the entire match. I can see how he'd be annoying, like he's constantly like every point if she messes up a point, like as opposed to like, what's the opposite of that ego where dude Toomas is just like steal stoic the whole way through. Well because he probably knows he's gonna win it anyway. All right, guys,
I appreciate it. That is a that is a bunch of food for thought. I think we did as well as we could for a pre draw pod as we possibly could food for thought for everybody for tennis's third major, Wimbledon, still the most prestigious. I don't know if it's the one that the players like necessarily think is the one that they want the most. Maybe it is in some people's cases, but it's considered still the most prestigious of them all. Ega trying to win her first on grass.
Sablenka is the short shot on the lady side, and of course the Big three current Big Three Sinner Alcoraz and Djokovic, who appears to be a go on the men's side, Drew Denzik Wale, Underscore Caapper, Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molitor, and of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. When do your Deep Dive NFL previews begin, sir?
Next week We're gonna talk some schedule talk, some schedule spots, and then after the fourth of July, we're going to do a division a week.
Wow, you get us through the summer, okay?
Zach Cohen Zach your official title at vsons what.
What is your official senior editor?
Senior editor? You can follow him on betting on X. Thanks for doing the Zach first time on the show. I appreciate it, man.
Yeah, no problem. I'll have a bunch of after the draw on the website too.
At vsin dot com, that's where all Zack's Zach's daily picks are, and I'll have him on the Vson Picks page as well Visa dot Com slash picks for subscribers. For Drew and for Zach, thanks for listening. Good luck with all your bets at Wimbledon in twenty twenty four.