Check it in Man.
Thursday morning, September twenty sixth, twenty twenty fours. The Beating the Book Podcast, week number four in the NFL. It's skill Alexander. Yeah, not a good first three weeks for me. Not a good first threeks, first three weeks for Willie will Hill, one of the staples of this show. Of course, you can follow him on Twitter at not the will Hill should have been more podcasts. But Todd Wishna is doing pretty good, even though you had a one and
two last week as well. Todd Wishnav from the Showtime docu series Action at t wish Now, Toddy, you are just oring waring everybody. Todd is not eaten and he went to Starbucks, so you could be Michugan on this show, right, is what you're saying in advance.
Basically, most people will be thinking, I just railed three lines of cocaine because caffeine has a certain effect on me, and you're gonna think that I'm on coke. I'm not. It's because I've had no calories and I've had a lot of caffeine. But you've all been warned, so whatever.
Okay, there we are. There's our warning on the show today. One of our favorite guests. He's kind enough to come on the Megapod. Well, he's on a numbers game every week, that's the first thing for not one but two segments. But he's kind enough to come on the Megapod twice a year, once during the regular season. Once we usually have him when he can accommodate during the playoffs, and
obviously we do tennis podcasts together as well. He's the co host of not one but two podcasts, NBC Sports at the Edge with Jay Croucher and also of course Densic Classic The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor. It's Drew Dinsig, Everybody at Whale, Underscore, capp Or What's Happening, and Drew Ski as always.
It's an honor to be invited and participate in the Megapod. And you guys are looking great. Hopefully I can help turn the season around. I'll the Bengals this week, probably turning their season round, hopefully. So it is funny though, watching with the video quality we're getting from Todd right now, his eyes do look like perfectly like one hundred per dilated like pupils, just going like all wow, So yeah, I was wondering what was going on there, but I guess it's the cafine.
Drew is very kind also because Drew just came back from a Greek vacation where he looks beautiful, and I was just saying before he got here, I said, I've never looked worse. Look at me. I'm exhausted. What's happening to me? I'm dying?
Is a grid man? Three weeks in it, you're already feeling it.
Oh that's awful, all right? So we we usually do this a little earlier on Thursday, but Drew couldn't get off a call. Drew has another life that he does, and I just before I know the people are like, oh, I just give the picks. I just want to have this one conversation with Drew because I think it's fascinating. Drew is, I hope you don't mind me saying it like this. You'll correct me if I'm saying it wrong. Drew is a seismologist, and we were sort of texting
back and forth. He couldn't get out of a meeting, so we had to do this a little later. Today. You have seen something that, even though it's not football prognostic, I find fascinating. I wish we could bet on this. Can you explain what you are seeing these days? Sir?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, earthquakes hot hot in the streets in LA right now. You mentioned I was traveling international recently. I was at Lax Thursday morning, the week before last, and I'm a consulting engineer, so basically my job is to you know, kind of help the help the structural engineers design the buildings so that there's you know, safe performance during the earthquake. And we were at LAX and ground starts shaking, and I'm like, oh, wow, this is cool.
Like I get to see like how the structure performs, like sitting there in the terminal, like, oh this is great. And then every single cell phone in the entire terminal gets the warning at the same time, like you know, like ground shaking, earthquake is happening. See cover. And I'm like, Okay, maybe this isn't as cool as I thought, because number one, I don't love being in the public space for this, and number two, I hope this doesn't ruin Our trip.
Ended up only being in a magnet, you know, just under a magnitude five happened in Malibu, but it was it was notable, and you kind of look at a pattern. Recently, we've had three of these now this summer, and they've all been relatively close to populated areas on different faults. And yeah, we're coming up around sort of the time when you would expect another earthquake in the La Basin.
They happen about every thirty years, and the last one do occur was nineteen ninety four and earthwridche at least in terms of real, big, consequential earthquakes. So yeah, everybody is very key on earthquake safety right now. And I think, you know, it's good when you have the small ones because it gives everybody the opportunity to think, like, Okay, what's my plan? You know, what do I have enough water? Like how am I gonna get my kids from school?
Or whatever? You know, Like, yeah, it's good to just sort of have everybody go through the mental exercise of being prepared for this sort of thing because you never know.
So you are and I just want I don't want to hold you to a prediction here, but you are basically saying so for those of us who lived at any amount of time in California, and also for those who haven't aware of this, I think nineteen eighty nine San Francisco. Obviously the Bay Bridge collapsing during the World Series between the A's and the Giants. That got all the headlines, and rightfully so. By the way, the marina was on fire, people lost their lives on the Bay Bridge.
It was chaos during the game al Michael's with the famous audio. But for those who were both in the eighty nine that's called the Loma Prieta earthquake, as you know, Drew and then ninety three the Northridge I guess these are named after the fault line, is that what they're named after, or just for the epicenter.
They tend to name them after the community that's the most directly impacted, and that's usually either the most populated community right over the fault or yeah, or near the epicenter. Yeah, so Northridge it was. It ended up being the north Ridge fault. They didn't know a fault was there until it happened, and they named it the north Ridge fault. So yeah, that's kind of how it goes.
So people who I know were in both, and again this depends on where you were, obviously, but anecdotally they were like, oh, the north Ridge one was way worse, Like they were like this is it was. Stuff was coming off the walls, you know, in their apartments, and it was just it's terrifying. Now you sort of said it casually, but again, if you've lived in California anything in the fours and you know, low fives on the Richter scale, we kind of don't blink anymore if you've
been through enough of them. But once you start like six what you were just talking about, I think if that is to happen thirty years from Northridge, like, that's some serious shit, and that's I don't want to say you're predicting it, but the technic with.
Your story that comes, Yeah, Philly, I have a bedding story that comes with one of my earth quakes. I was living in LA two thousand and one to twenty fifteen, and I remember on a college football Saturday, I'm at the same place I was for the old Kipper massacre story. I'm watching the game and the place was shaking. I think it was only like a four point seven or something, but it was shaking serious and it wasn't the first earthquake been in LA. But I was like, can this
stop shaking. There's two minutes left in this game. What a is going on here? I'm going, you can't have an earthquake now.
I'm about this, Bet Todd, you had you have two earthquake stories. You remember the second one?
Oh, the other earthquake. Of course that was a special. And in Las Vegas we went to the game Mystics Vegas Aces a couple of years ago. We had the Mystics pick them at halftime. They're up like fifteen points, and there was an earthquake in the desert in California that affected La that affected the Vegas a tiny bit. It wasn't even that bad. We're in the MGM Grand Arena and I'm like, they're not gonna end this game?
Are they been screwing Summer League Mystics and and they're all these little girls are like, oh, like they're worried the scoreboard is gonna fall. I'm like, get another ten girls.
The bench, Tod, I go, you know the scoreboard could fall on these girls.
Get another ten girls. We got tons of girls on the bench. It's Mystics and I'm up fifteen and a half. It was ridiculous. And I'm watching They've got guys in suits coming out there looking at the floor they're doing. This is going on for like a half an hour. I'm like, oh my god, this is unbelievable if I
lose this bet. So finally they decide after they could have played the whole second half in the amount of time that they did to inspect, and then they call the game, and I am literally absolutely because I have an easy winner and I and I get And on top of that, I didn't even get refunded for my tickets. The Aces didn't refunded. I was so mad. I was like, only this could happen to me in earthquake two hundred miles away.
To put them on this, uh yeah, this is this is just to go to go to say you know that all of your points are Fairgillroich was ten times worse than than Loma Creator for lots of reasons, and Southern California much like the Megapod, we are due, we are.
Too much like the Megapod. Nicely done, good segue. And by the way, this drews Drew sort of letting me know this. Major League Baseball completely has botched their last week of the season with the final two wild card spots in the National League with Hurricane Helene, which the difference between earthquakes and hurricanes is we know the hurricanes are coming, but Major League Baseball apparently did not get the memo. So let's let's turn it around. We are due.
As Drew said Todd, the records are what, Well, the.
Records seem to be very similar to last week, with a gigantic lead by one big tea. That's me. Gilly came into the week at one, four and one. We all called for the aggression after his amazing season. We all knew it wasn't for real. We all knew there was no way Gil could keep up this towards streak that he had last year. And guess what vote reality has set in. He is now two six and one
and a whopping zero to three on his teasers. And that is surprising because we've all been outstanding on teasers as of the last couple of years. Willie, say, Willie gets a one and two to go to four and five oh and three also on his teasers, so this is shocking. Wow. And then I am at six and three after my one and two week, and I am one and two on teasers also not very good, and
then the guest. The guest had a good week. Adam Chernoff held up his side of the bargain, going two and one with some nice picks, including the Commanders plus seven and a half. That's Gilly's former team used to be called the Redskins. For those of you that didn't know, the guest is now four four and one and two and one on the teasers. So we've got to turn it around. Everybody else needs to turn it around except for me. Thank you.
You need to turn it around so we can catch you Dumbo of the Week. We have two candidates for Dumbo of the Week.
Yes, I want to you do your first one and key save Raheem Moores for me.
I'm just gonna set it up. It is a it is a Nick Sirianni versus Raheem Morris duel to the end for Dumbo of the Week. I'll do Okay, you want you want to do the Royeye Morris, I'll do the Nick Sirianni. The Nick Sirianni was simply a body of work in what ended up being philadelphia Is fifteen to twelve win over the Saints, but probably could have
been way bigger. Than that. By the way, Philadelphia outgained the fouc They excuse me, the Saints in that game four hundred and sixty to two hundred and nineteen in total yards. But there was any number of situations in that game where first of all, you know, Hurts got picked by Tehran Matthew earlier in that game. But just in terms of coaching decisions, fourth and one for Philly down three to excuse me, this is this is a scoreless game, fourth and one for Philly at the New
Orleans forty six. They opt not to do the Tukus bush, which they invented and perfected. Hurts to Goddard for six. They converted it and then two plays later Hurts ended up fumbling, But that was the first sort of indication like, wow, that was an interesting call. They didn't took his bush. So then it's fourth and one at the New Orleans fifteen. This is a three to nothing game. Fourth and one at the fifteen. This is late first half. You're down three,
three to nothing. They showed took this push, but instead they hand off to Saquon little east west thing the poortent of things to come in the Raheem Morris discussion, tackled for no game. So again they eschew the field goal there, and you're like, what are you doing, Nick Sirianni like probably at some point.
Nothing like showing push. I like, I like what you said. They showed tulas push. Great call by Yanky.
I love it, Thank you, thank you. Third quarter, fourth and three from the New Orleans thirty four, also three to nothing, hurts, they go for it, hurts, sacked by Brian Borsey, so that fourth didn't work out. Then fourth quarter New Orleans. New Orleans finally tries a fourth and one and they miss it. By the way, Philadelphia, they made them pay for it. Four plays later, Saquon Scamperdon from sixty five out and it was seven to three Philly. So then New Orleans does take a field goal to
cut it to seven to six. Then Philadelphia decides, after all these fourths where they went for it, they're like, hey, Jake Elliott, why don't you go out there and kick a sixty yarder? See if we can't extends. Of course, he misses it. New Orleans takes over at midfield and they end up New Orleans does taking the lead twelve to seven. Philadelphia ends up. They should have won this game. In the end, they get lucky because on a third and sixteen with one sixteen to go, Hurtz to Goddard
for sixty one completely bailed him out. Saque scored after that, and Philly held on to win the game, but again a series at least three questionable fourth down decisions, both to go for it and then to kick a sixty yarder from Nick Siriani. He is candidate number one. Raheem Morris candidate number two.
Go ahead, Dodd, Okay, I'm putting this in with one of my really good end gamers because it's all related. I think one of my best in game plays of the week was Minnesota is trailing twenty two seventeen in the Sunday night matchup against the Chiefs. They're down five, they have some linemen injured already. They're having some struggle struggle movie the ball, but they now have the ball. Atlanta.
I'm sorry, Atlanta. I always call Minnesota's Kirk Cousins, but it's first inten at the Atlanta eleven, and I'm looking at the Kansas City team total at twenty five and a half or twenty six and a half it's essentially the same number because they have twenty two points. Three and a half or four and a half at this
point doesn't really make a difference. As soon as Atlanta gets the first down to go to first inten at the Atlanta twenty eight with about ten minutes to go, I'm saying to myself, I've got to play Kansas City under here. Why because even if Atlanta goes three and out, they'll probably be about at eight or nine minutes left, and there's a good chance if the Chiefs will just try to run out the clock and at worst case scenario get in Minnesota field area and kick a field
goal to have twenty five points. That's what I'm thinking, worst case scenario is. So I say, I've got to play the under twenty six and a half under twenty five and a half. They were both about minus one twenty five at the time, so I immediately play it. And now we get all the way down because the Atlanta Falcons had a fifteen play drive, they get all all the way down with four minutes and twelve seconds
to go. It's fourth and five at the Kansas City eight, and I text the guys and I say, okay, he's going to kick a field goal here right to go to twenty to twenty, because then if he gets the ball back, he's got his time out. If he gets the ball back, he just has to get a field goal twenty three twenty two. At the same time, you're thinking, well, can you give the ball back to Mahomes with four minutes? But we all agreed he's going to kick the field goal.
Is that true? Will do we all agree that he was going to kick the field goal.
I thought like sixty forty seventy thirty he'd kick it because I remember texting you guys before the third down player was like third and goal from the six or seven. I said, if he doesn't get another yard, he kicks the field goal, right and Gil said yes, And I was like, I kind of agree, and.
Then he didn't.
But I thought it was like, not like ninety ten, but more sixty seventy percent.
Is that fair? Give I'm hoping he can. I'm hoping. I'm hoping he kicks the field goal to go to twenty two twenty and then Kansas City just tries to run out the clock and there's almost no chance of overtime. There's no chance of any trouble. I don't want him going for it because if he goes for it and gets it, now they thyar it. I could get a touchdown, get a two point conversion, go up twenty five to twenty two, then Kansas City could come back and tie twenty five all and then all of a sudden, my
team total is in danger. So of course to torture me, the guy goes for it fourth and five. Now, that wasn't the worst scenario yet by Raheem Morris. I thought that was questionable, but okay, I'll give it to him.
Now.
By the ways, let me just let me just interrupt your second That was a fourth Just to give the detail. That was fourth and five at the Kansas City six with four to h eight to go, where Raheem decided to go for it. It was it was the incomplete pass intended for London and in the end zone where the PI was not called.
Right And by the way, I know everyone says the Chiefs get every call. Yeah, in the first half, Chris Jones got called for roughing the passer when he couldn't even see the quarterback. So you know, I agree, do
me a favorite calm down with your Chiefs. Nonsense. Okay, So the Chiefs go out three and out right away, and now at Lana's got the ball again to twenty six to go, and the whole time we're going down, I'm texting the guys, don't score too early, Raheem, because if you get a touchdown to go to twenty three twenty two and you miss the two, or even if you make the two, you don't want to give Mahomes a chance to get an easy field goal to tie or win the game. So slow the hell down. Of course, Raheem.
Mors can't hear me, even though I'm screaming it to him through the television because they're already at the Kansas City twenty twenty two yard line with a one forty four to go. How about running the ball once or twice, Raheem, slow it down. There's no need to get the score and let Mahomes go right down and get a field going to beat you. What are you doing?
There was a series there was a series of Kansas City defensive penalties though that helped him matriculate. So part of that's, you know, I get.
What you're saying, though, Okay, fine, you can mix in some runs. He doesn't want to do it. So now it's like one of three lefts. He gets a pass to London to the eleven yards. It's third and one with one oh three to go at the Kansas City thirteen he calls time out. Me everybody on the text threat goes apoplectic. Why are you calling time out with one oh three to go on a third and one
in that spot? And even if you want to use your time out to discuss the play let twenty five seconds run down and call the time out with forty seconds, there's no need to call time out and save time for Atlanta, I mean for Kansas City? What are you doing? Raheim? And he's I'm literally gonna jump through the television and just like strangle this guy. I can't believe that he's not he calls time out. Okay, fine, so it's third and one. He goes for no game fifty six seconds left,
it's gonna be fourth and one. This idiot calls time out when Amy Reid was trying to call time out. Andy Reid is trying to cald time out to save time for the Chiefs, but guess what, raheem beats them to him Raheem.
No no, no, no, no, no, no no. Yeah.
Andy Reid didn't realize how dumb Raheem was gonna be, so he beats him to the time out. Raheem's trying to give it to him. You can't make this stuff up. And by the way, these people make millions of dollars, okay, millions of dollars. And by the way, don't tell me there's such genius. And now, Andy Reid, I'll give it to you all day, Raheem Morris. I guarantee you any of us here watch as much film as Raheem Morris.
We're not making that mistake. Okay. So now it's fourth down and one fifty seconds left, and Gilly, you can take it from here with a gorgeous play call on fourth and one from the Kansas City thirteen.
Oh yeah, fourth in inches of the Kansas City thirteen. We know that Cousins not in the same way that Philip Rivers never ever snuck in his entire career. Like there's this apruder film of one time Philip Rivers actually snuck.
But Cousins is not a sneaker anymore, right, Like we knew, so that play was off the table, and instead of just going forward, straightforward try to get the inches, they do the old hand off east west of bijon three yard loss ballgame because Morris had used the time out and the math no longer worked out out.
So that was that.
That was the ballgame over by the way, Steve, I want one PostScript to this, Steve Pheasick, legitimate pace is ridiculous. The man is ridiculous. He he legitimately believes that Andy Reid should have been smarten. I can't even say it without laughing. Should have been smart enough to know that Raheem Morris was that dumb that he would have called the second time out.
But the truth is he he was that dumb on the first one. So across the way, and this dummy's gonna do it to us again, give us a free timeout. It's unbelievable.
By the way, guys, if only we had had some indication that Raheem Morris was a better coordinator than a head coach, you know, we just had no idea that he was. That he didn't have the goods. If only we had had some indication that the Falcon's decision making this offseason was not great, you know, like that is no way to tell. There was no way to tell.
No way to tell.
Belichick. I can remember it pretty closely, I don't. I just draw a blank with the Raheem Morris first coaching tenure. Do you guys remember that well when he was the head coach? Was that the Josh Freeman air? I'm just to me, that's a blank spot for me.
Yeah, I remember, well, either he was terribleized.
I think I think we decided rahe Morris is the Dumbo of the week. We don't even need to.
It's close, though, serious, it's close, but yeah, it's close, you know, Okay, ready for best?
The other quick one, the other quick one, just thirty seconds, real quick on the bronch. I've had real success on the third quarters. I talk about the third quarters all the time on the megapod. But third quarter of the Giants game, it's twenty one to seven, Giants, Brown's getting
the ball start the third quarter. I don't want the under until I see what the Browns adjustments are at halftime, because the first half they can't block at all, They literally cannot block at all, and Deshaun Watson has no time. I want to play under anything under seven and a half here in the third quarter. If I but I'm scared to play it at halftime because the Browns are
going to come out in the first drive. As soon as the Browns went three and out in that third quarter, you could still get under seven and a half minus one thirty five. I immediately played it. Why because the Giants up twenty one to seven, are going to be as conservative as gonna be in the third quarter. They're gonna run the ball. They're gonna just try to get to the end of this game. So I take under
seven and a half Giants right there. Didn't sweat at all because by the time the Browns get the ball back number one, they can't block number two. They can't score if you can't block, so even if they did, it was gonna take them forever to get a touchdown. I thought that third quarter, along with the Miami third quarter under or two juicy juicy third quarters.
I also just think that the best, like we just give a Macro thing on in game, the Kansas City double dip right double dips are still the way to go. I think those are those are still if you're to ask what is generally the most advantageous moment to bet something in an NFL game. Remember, Kansas City had a double dip coming and they were they were losing, and the money line was very affordable at that point. And by the way, as I recall, it can't adjust to Gilly, what's that they do?
It just better us a lot more, they really do.
And in whatever what ended up happening was that Kansas City didn't actually execute the first half. But then your boy Curtis Cousins threw a pick right, and so can't say yeah. But anyway, I think that's generally speaking, even though they are better at it than they used to be for sure. All right, Drew, you are the guests, sir, Thank you by the.
Way about Thursday Night, Thursday Night, Oh.
Thursday Night, Thank you Todd. For God's sake, that's your podcast. Thank you bummer.
I was going to go right into some of Atlanta bashing.
I actually do have a best bet on the Thursday night game. Does anybody else? I do too?
First, because he hasn't talked, and he's also he's done with his ice cream a sprinkles.
I am going to late here. What do we have for the line? Gilly five five?
It is five oh yeah, I got five and a half. Now five and a half and forty five.
Okay, yeah, this is interesting. It's gone from four to six back down to like I saw four this morning, where it's all within the same like twenty four hours, which is unusual. A lot of dead numbers between four and six, but all lay with Dallas. I just think this is a spot where, hey, they're good as a favorite, they're good as a bully, they desperately need the game. I do think there's a little bit of a reaction and overreaction to hey, the Giants looked good last week.
Dallas hasn't played well in a couple of weeks. Dallas has absolutely owned the Giants. And the Giants are missing. I don't know if they're missing or they're just hurt. I haven't gotten the official like we're not going to see the actives and actives for a while. I don't know if we have clarity. But the Giants secondary is all beat up. I think this is a good spot for Dallas to get back on track. So I'm okay Dallas winning this game by a touchdown plus and.
Once they get a lead.
This is the kind of team Daniel Jones where they can gamble on defense, make be aggressive for some turnovers, for some mistakes. So I'm okay laying in here with the Dallas Cowboys.
I went under. I don't hate yours at all, Will I went under on this. By the way, did you see the stat This is the first time ever that the Dallas Cowboys have played a road game on three days rest, and that every other team in the league has done it at least six times. Something like that one because they get a Thanksgiving home game. That's exactly right. Detroit had the same thing. But then Detroit played had this exact same situation last year I believe where they
played on the road in the Week four. Yeah, I'm gonna take the under. There's the only thing that worked for me last week was the Thursday night under. I'm doing it again this week. This one is you know, Dak has these weird home road splits. I don't know how much to make of that, but he did suck epa per dropback last year. He is like thirtieth in the league on the road. Not so good this year as compared to home. But the big thing with the Cowboys is Tyron Smith. The loss of him is like
a huge deal. He allowed through through nine games. Last year took him nine games to allow eight pressures. Tyler Geiton, the kid that's replaced him, has already allowed that many in three games, and he's got to deal with Brian Burns Today. Brian Burns has generated fifteen pressures. That's ninth. In the end, NFL ceede Lam still has the ankle injury. Dallas, in terms of their EPA per rush attempt allowed is
really bad. I'm not sure if New York can exploit it the same way that the Saints and Ravens can, but they could exploit it, perhaps enough to churn the clock. Dallas also, and this is the biggest thing also that the sort of the eyes don't catch. I love talking about red zone offense and red zone defense. Last year Cleveland really good defense, worst red zone touchdown percentage in the entire league. They gave up touchdowns at seventy one
percent rate. Those things are generally regression candidates, and the Cowboys through three weeks have given up ninety percent touchdowns on opponents in the red zone. That should probably regress quickly tonight, I'm guessing so. And by the way, the general scoring environment in the NFL through three weeks is down two point seven points, so short, you know, it's a short turnaround for both of these teams. The Giants offense is not anything to be scared up to begin with.
The Dallas defense has been suspect, So I think the combination of all those things, the regression in the red zone, forty five and a half is not a is not that low of a number. So I'm gonna go on forty five.
Is it really forty five? And I think it's forty five?
Right, it's forty five. You're correct, it's forty five and a half this morning, forty five.
I love this pick by the day, Gilly, I love this pic. That's this is a great The Giants can't.
Score, Yeah, but Willie scenario, that's a game that's a game script that scares me though, right Like if Dallas does get into this lead mode where they're just like and then they then the deep and then Mike and.
You lose thirty, that's how that's how you lose exactly.
That's my number one today, Drew, You're.
On, Okay, I'll go to the aforementioned Falcons Saints game. Uh and uh. I'll take the Saints plus the points plus two and a half work for everybody. I actually bet the money line here. I think the Saints are
the better team. I don't think, And really I just want to kind of key on, like there's a lot of people who have made a lot of noise this week about the Saints center being out and haven't acknowledged the fact that the Falcons center is out, and that the Falcons are doing an awful lot of shotgun snapping to Kirk Cousins right now, and good luck kind of on a in a high pressure week figuring that out, you know, entirely smoothly. But even more than that, Like,
the backup center for the Saints is fine. That he was, you know, a serviceable player for the Bears last couple of years, and I have no issues with him stepping in and being fine. At the backup center for the Falcons is a man named Ryan new Zill And I think that just in general, if you want to have questions about both of these offenses, fine, If you want to have questions about the Falcons defense, you are correct. But I think there is a standout unit in this game,
and it is the Saints defense. I'm expecting that to Mario Douglas will play. I'm expecting that Alantae Taylor will be over his illness, and I think the matchup of the coverage unit in particular against this kind of relatively group of skill position players for the Falcons is a solid positive matchup for Saints defense. And then I think that just in general, you can absolutely pray on this Falcons defense if you're Clint Kubiak. I like what he's
doing so far this season with the Saints offense. Huge step forward from what we saw last year under Carmichael, and I think the Saints get a clean win and seized control of the NFC South, at least for the time being until we see some Saints Tampa Bay matchups later this season. So the fact that you're getting your better coach, in my opinion, with Dennis Allen. I know that he's not especially popular, but I am not a Raheem Morris guy, and you're getting the healthier quarterback is
a little bit of icing on the kick there. So Saints plus the two and a half.
For me, Saints plus the two and a half one of eight early games this week. So this last week it was seven and seven in the early window than five in the late window with a two month nights. This week we have eight in the early window, four in the afternoon with the two Monday nights. Do we prefer I know, we don't prefer like the ten to three or the nine three that we've seen, those are awful.
Do we like seven to five of the best? I think we do, right, Seven and five is the best, absolutely the best?
Yeah?
Eight.
Honestly, I just want better Sunday football.
Oh you know what, Drew. I'm so glad you said this. Do you remember, Drew?
This was you put him in whatever order you want, just give us a better football.
So last year I remember, Drew, you and I saw this the same too. I remember last year was the first time that I ever said wow. And this was right around weeks three and four of last year too, where it was like, man, these last two weeks of Sunday football have felt like work, and I never feel that way on Sunday football. But this last week it came back to me again. Is that because of the three preseason games. Is that because they shortened preseason.
It's more of probably just the young you know, the age and the experience of the quarterbacks. And the aggressive turnover of offensive coordinators. Like I think that it's just it's taking longer for teams to kind of find any footing on offense, and the old saying of defenses ahead offense has probably never been more true, especially early in
the season. Now, whether this carries through is more of a quarterbacks just weren't ready to play, and you know, we'll see you with the likes of the Caleb Williams and the Will Levice's of the world if that just if they just continue to stub their toe. But yeah, I mean, I'm at least we have Daniels for now.
I think, yeah, we got Jayden Daniels, that's for sure. I I think it's all of that. And it's also like, you know, hey, Bryce Young, you had a terrible rookie year. We play you one one set of downs, like one drive was one drive in the preseason. Yep, we've seen enough. You're good. Come on. Really, So there's that will will or Todd who goes who goes first? Ye?
Yes?
Yeah.
By the way, I just want to talk about with me and Willie are always looking during the game at the pass attempts by the quarterback. Who's going to be trailing, and we should probably talk a little bit about that, because you know we've Willy jumped on I think it was Willy you jumped on it right away with Trevor Lawrence early on. You can see that the Jaguars defense
did not decide to show up. I believe they were still on the bus halfway through the second quarter, and Willy immediately said, Hey, Lawrence is going to be slinging it the whole time, and Willie, your thoughts on that is just that. I think we should also talk about what's the baseline and halftime. It seems they want twenty and a half more passes for the so if a guy has fifteen attempts, they're going to put it at like thirty five and a half thirty six and a
half for the second half. And then maybe you should talk about what we need to think we can happen, like can we move the sticks and stuff like that.
Yeah, I haven't done the math in terms of like this is the pregame number, this is how many has now in this how many they're projecting. But I've done it. We've done these enough where I can just sort of hyge it out when you and I I'll text back like, oh, it just looks too high.
It's one of those things where if.
He needs twenty five attempts in the second half, that's just that's a lot of attempts. But I would phrase it this way. It's rarely wrong when you get the sense of like a Monday night where it's seven to nothing, team is losing, the other team's driving, it's clearly about to be fourteen nothing. All right, it's gonna be one of these games they're gonna have to play catch up. It was Dak a couple week weeks ago against the Saints, where you can tell pretty early, right, this team's in
a hole. You want a pretty good quarterback because you don't want a Will Levis or a Brissett where they're gonna go three and out. You want enough where you can kind of get those garbage yards. Garbage completions leads to more attempts. I mean, you always have to worry about the guy gets pulled and you get burned. We got burned, I think with Stafford a couple of weeks ago, where you got taken out and if you played Lawrence late, you got burned because he was out for the last
seven minutes. But just generally, a decent quarterback, their team falls behind it and they're gonna have to throw, They're gonna have to score, they're gonna have to throw. Catching that early usually it's in like the mid to high thirties, those are usually pretty good over so in terms of the quarterback attempts, and I.
Think you want to be ahead of twenty and a half more going to the second and a half. Of course, it also matters who gets the ball first in the third quarter.
If the Jaguars one of those games we tried to bet, I think it was the Burrow when I was like, he can't. Yeah, he's gonna get the attempts, but his defense like he can't get the ball back, which obviously that's a factor. So there's a lot of moving parts in it. But just in general, if you see a decent team, a decent quarterback fall behind, you know, pretty early fourteen seventeen, it's you know, you don't want to be in a situation where it's like ten to nothing.
Then it's you can stick to like that run heavy script or one score gets him back in the game, or our neutral script. But if a good team falls behind, pretty big pretty early. Those attempts add up quickly. We also got burned on at the end the same game. At the end we had under forty one and a half rushing yards. He had nine at the half, and I was already counting the money because I thought he's not even going to get many carries in the second half.
Down thirty four to three. Of course, we got burned because the Jaguars were doing that old stick where they're like, well, on first down, we better hand it off otherwise they're going to kill our quarterback. And at the Enronley for like a thousand, the one.
That put it over the top, they pulled rant to figure out right, they're calling off the dogs. They putting Mac Jones first place, a little give up draw to a ten. Of course I can't get stopped. Of course he has to go for fifteen and beat us. But hey, it's it's one of those things good bets.
I still thought it was a good bet. I thought it was a good bet by both of us. Anyway, Okay, first pick for me. And by the way, guys, there's definitely things that you can get on on these props in game. If you're allowed to bet props in game that are very advantageous. So that's why I bring it up, and me and Will you are always texting about it. Okay, anyways, my number one pick, I'm gonna go with your Detroit Lions.
Okay, that's my number two too. Yeah, I like.
Detroit minus I believe three and a half. Correct? Is that what everyone said? Detroit minus Detroit minus three and a half either. Dan Campbell got in the old locker room and he said, hey, look, we're gonna run the football. You're gonna line up and see if you can beat us. But I don't think you can because our big boys are bigger than your big boys. We're gonna just push you around. And I think that's the identity of this Detroit Lions football team. That coach wants to just be
a bully. He wants to line up and push your guys. Look, we're gonna spash you in the math. And if you can stop us, you can stop us. If you can't, you can't, and Detroit is going to hopefully do it.
Now.
Look Seattle, what has Seattle done this year? The first game of the year. Who did Seattle play the first game of the year. I believe it was Bo Nicks at home with their good defensive coach, easy winner. Then they go to New England and they win in overtime. Again, you wouldn't exactly call it a world beater competition. Then they get Skyler Thompson. Now even I knew Skylar Thompson wasn't ready for the National Football League, everyone was like, oh,
he played the playoff game. They only lost thirty four through he was eighteen for forty five. It had nothing to do with him. He was not ready for prime time Skyler Thompson. And again the Seahawks role. Now those three teams are not NFL caliber teams. Now the Detroit lines are going on the road, and you only you only have to lay three and a half against the Seahawk team, which may not be as good as this three.
And oh warrants I have to take the Detroit line because we're gonna punch him in the math.
Well, you and I match on this, Todd and Drew. Forgive me if I'm stealing some of your thunder on this, because Drew was on Numbers game earlier this week and we talked about it. Is exactly what you said about Seattle, right, Todd, that there's nothing they've done. And I have Mike McDonald Coach of the Year tickets, Drew, I know you do too, so only want the best for the Seahawks. My thing this offseason was they're gonna warm to Mike McDonald's defense
over time. They've warmed to it very quickly, by the way, but they haven't really The three and oh they're three and oh seems a bit fugezy, right, seems a bit for all the reasons you stay. The flip side of that is Detroit's Detroit is kind of kind of feels like they're playing possum also, right, not playing possum on purpose, but they have not been as good as they should have been. They completely out yarded, if you will, outgained Tampa Bay. They doubled them up, if not more, in
their loss to Tampa Bay. And then last week they were kind of listless against the Cardinals. But have their chances as well to blow that open, but they just never really would. So I think all both you put both of those things in right, Detroit sort of playing below level, Seattle perhaps outperforming, and you get this three and a half point line. I'm with you on Detroit. We'll go Willis Willi's willy, don't.
Get here for I'm gonna just stick with it. I don't like it this week as much as in past weeks, but I said I'd stick with Steelers unders until they beat me, and they haven't beaten me yet, so I'm gonna go back to it. What do we have forty here?
Forty? Forty is good?
Forty is correct, Yes.
Same handicap. Tomlin just wants to keep these games close and conservative and kick and punt and you know, kick his field goals and pot fourth and two or fourth and three from midfield. And uh, look, I don't know. Richardson's such a boomer bus player. I don't know how he factors into his handicap because he's just so daring with the ball but so inactate. That was an awful game he and Caleb Williams played last week. That was
just a painful watch. Speaking to Drew and Gilly, your point about these games being tough to watch, that that led to charge That was a tough one. But I'm just gonna stick with it. I mean, these Steeler games are twenty to ten, twenty to twelve, thirteen to six. I look for another type of these game. It's gonna burn me one of these weeks, but I'll stick with it till beats me. So Steelers Colts under forty.
I got a question for Drew dinsik Indians. Oh look the Stiller defense, right, it's a ferocious defense. We've got the most ferocias. Now, the question that I have for Yenza is the Rivers Casinos directly next to Akershuer stadiums charging one hundred dollars for self parking? Is that more vicious or bess vicious than the Stalwart D. I think the Stowart d is very vicious, but it's not at the level of one hundred dollars for self park Drew your thoughts.
I'm going to say the parking is more vicious. I like the Steelers. I like the defense, but they you know, and much in the same way that you can kind of poke holes and the Seahawks about strength of opponent at this point in the season. Like the Steelers defensive, they've gotten to pick on the statue of Kirk Cousins bo Nicks, you know, in his second start, and then last week kind of the statue of Herbert for a half, and then you know, the mess of heinikey, So yeah, he was.
Herbert was moving it on. To be fair, Herbert was moving it on them at.
Half yeah, yeah, yeah, I had the tackles got hurt too.
Yeah, the typical Tomlin walk of the offensive line gets hurt and Herbert, yeah, is.
Quite strong this year.
Yeah sure, Now, will would you say what you say? Eighty nine cents for the sprinkles at the at the Fever game is worse than the eighty dollars dining at the River's parking. It's a very close call.
It is. It's not that there was eighty nine and we went to the drew that I went to the Fever Sun game last night and they're giving me a hard time about paying money because the tickets were too expensive, you guys thought for the game, which I didn't have a problem with the tickets. But then we went to Ben and Jerry's got some ice cream and there's like, maybe I don't know, a dozen sprinkles for like a dollar sprinkles, And that was that was a point of contention to catch you up here.
Thanks for that recap, Thanks for you get to the audience up on it.
Todd.
You knew, Todd, you'd have a very likewise audience in Todd. He hates that kind of shit. By the way, NiCoT question, I expect.
At least two dozen sprinkles if you're going to make me pay a dollar?
Yeah, more more or ress? What was the word that you used there? More or rest or ress?
Because the question is the defense. We got TJ.
Watt.
TJ Wat's worth fifty dollars of parking right there. Then EN's gotta think. Okay, now I get an ounther fifty dollars with the rest of the store team. Okay, so it's real close. It's probably like eighty nine to ninety nine for the stores. D and the one hundred. Tigin's got to go with the parking a little more vicious. I agree with Drew.
What's your number two? Toddy? Okay?
Will my number two? No, we'll, We'll just have to.
I just had a very quick commentary that Todd has very little sense. You could tell he's a single guy of what things cost, Like, things cost money? How could you spend that much on the fever tickets? How can you spend that much? Have you been out of your house?
Todd?
Everything costs a lot of money. I don't know.
There's a disconnect.
Well, no, I do know that he has he has no. It's also that he also lives in nineteen eighty five, so he applies the same. He's like, I didn't pay for parking at three rivers in nineteen eighty five, Why.
Should I pay parking now? I'm like, dude, it's like.
Nineteen eighty five. So he's got that going.
There are certain things on principle that I will not pay for. Okay, I'm so sorry. Okay, uh Now it's my turn for my number two pick, and then we go too for Drew. I am gonna go. I have a lot of questions about what I should do here with the second one, but I'm just gonna go back to the well will. He says, always bet the Steelers under I say, always bet the Commanders over the line is fifty. I believe with the Commanders. Am I correct? Is it fifty?
It you live fifty? Yep?
I think we all heard about how the Commanders haven't punted in two weeks. They got seven field goals against the Giants to go for twenty one to eighteen winner, and then they go into Cincinnati a horrible defense again, and they don't even punt there either. But by the way, they also didn't make the other team punt, so they are a gorgeous overteam. This is this Washington team because mister Daniels at quarterback is to steal the draft. I loved him at LSU. The guy run. Now, is he
going to stay alive? I don't know, because he takes some shots that they're just You're like, is he still alive? He looks like he's one hundred and forty five pounds compared to these guys. I don't know if he's going to stay alive. But however, if he stands upright, he is going to score some points for the Washington Commanders. The Washington Commanders defense is prendous. It is so bad the defense. So they're gonna give up thirty thirty points
a game. So now you're going to Arizona. Kyler Murray is gonna be running around like crazy. Daniels is gonna be running around like crazy. It's not like Arizona's defense is any good. How are we not going to go over fifty? And it's it's disguised because of the fact the Giants game only went twenty one to eighteen, and that was a game that could have been a thirty point score if they went to had seven field goals right, And the first game of the week, the Commanders lost
thirty seven to twenty against Tampa Bay. So I think the Commanders are going to be an over machine this year. No defense and very good offense spells over. And it's not like Arizona isn't an over team too. Give me over fifty in the Washington Commanders.
That all checks out. Man, Jayden, I'm so excited about Jayden Daniels as everybody who's a Skins fan is. But everybody has the same RG three. You know what's it called? The TSD PTSD. Thank you PTSD. Just please stay healthy, please for God's sakes. My favorite part of that was, well two things. One, he finally found out who Terry McLaurin was, which was awesome because Terry McLaurin is just incomparable. Have you heard me say that you were? And the
other thing was after the game. Did you see the interview where where Daniels had sort of the presence of mind to say because he threw the first touchdown to Trent Scott the tackle and he goes, that's going to be a great answer to a trivia question years now, which I thought was like, oh, I like that. He's like, ah, I'm going to be awesome, because I was saying in the first couple of weeks, I'm like, he's so comfortable that I'm a little worried he's too comfortable. And now
I can't. You can't even say that anymore. He just looks like the game is he's so the stage is not too big for him at all. It's been fantastic and I love him at ASU too. Todd even before LSU loved those latens.
Where he would you know, her Edwards tried to Herm Edwards tried to defend against him. Herm Edwards and his nineteen seventies NFL bull crap was trying to to dampen Jaden Daniels with the third and five runs to the fullback. So he was even better he even though his coach was holding him back.
Yeah, that Terry mccaorn touchdown was top five all players this season for sure, and if you're a Commanders fan, be sure to check out the the the kind of recap of the block that set that up by Jeremy McNichols, who was the running back spelling the injured Austin Eckler. He takes Jermaine Pratt and just freaking fork lifts him, dumps him. It is. It is quite awesome. And you can tell he has no idea, like what the what the pressure? You know, what is what is responsibilities? He's like,
They're like, who do I have? Likes? He's like, you know, asking Daniels and as they're lined up, it was. It was quite cool. So great play U and love the command. I just love it. I hope they keep keep giving us the show because they're they're very fun to watch.
The next gen stats I believe it was that said it was just over a ten percent success probability on that touchdown. Sure because he was about to get blasted. And then McLaurin he just know it's like mccluurin was at the twenty yard line when he released the ball.
Unbelievable.
Yeah, awesome.
Okay, second play for me. I'm going to go back to the NFC South and I'm going to take another dog. This time. We're going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the injured Philadelphia Eagles. I can get a I don't know two one and a half. Two and a half doesn't matter to me. I played the money line here for the Bucks for record keeping purposes, I want to go to so I'll do Bucks plus two. The handicap is pretty straightforward. I'm expecting the Bucks offensive line to
be at full strength here. That matters. I think the ability to protect Baker Mayfield brings out the best in him in terms of quarterback play, and I think the weapons of Godwin and Evans are going to be an extremely difficult test for this still figuring it out secondary from Philadelphia, So I do think the Buccaneers are going
to be able to control game. State put a little bit of scoreboard pressure on Philadelphia here, and then the Philadelphia offense, like it hasn't really been broadly covered, but like, yeah, making Philly a favorite on the road of this magnitude if they were fully healthy. I'm not going to take exception to that. But I do not think there is a very strong likelihood at all that DeVante Smith plays. I think it is also unlikely that aj Brown is ready to go, and I think it is unlikely that
Lane Johnson is ready to go. If you are keeping track, those are probably three of the foremost important Philadelphia Eagles on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe they are three of their most important players period. And Jalen Hurtz had the narrative beating all off season long that he did not have the answers in their free fall last year. He did not have the answers when he was blitzed, and that was no more apparent than when he went against Todd Bowles in the playoffs. And Todd Bowles is
blitzing at an absolutely absurd rate. Still, you combine that with now he's going to have to figure out protection in the absence of uh, you know, the key key blocker and Lane Johnson, and he's gonna have to figure out who he's going to with hot reads in the absence of his two most important receivers. This to me looks like a huge, huge problem for Philadelphia. I think the wrong team is favored, and I will take the home team Buccaneers. I bet them out right, But I like plus two as well, and.
I think I don't have them at my at my disposal right here. Lane Johnson, to your point, I think there are stats on him going way back because he's oft injured, and there are future statistics when Lane Johnson plays, when Lane Johnson doesn't play, how absolutely diametrically opposed. Those are like Philly without him is terrible and Philly with him is great.
And also, like you guys brought it up in the boneheaded coaching convo, Nick Sirianni, I don't know what in the world he's doing, Like it doesn't feel that. I know they have a very good analytics department in Philadelphia. Those guys must be pulling your hair out. And when he because he's just kind of just doing like magic gate ball, going forward, kicking the play calls have been terrible, Like I really do not understand what is going on right now with kind of the decision making. And he's
he's he's making decisions. You know, he's he's acting like a beleaguered coach, which I think he is. And so yeah, blackjack player, trying to get it all done. Yeah, there you go, crazy, that's exactly great camp. Great camp. And uh yeah, I'm not my voto. No confidence is in on Syrian.
All right, what's your final one.
I'm gonna stick with the dogs. I'm going to take the bait. I'm the mouse that's taking the cheese. This week Buffalo Bills for me on Sunday and football. This team is a truck. I honestly am I know. I'll take two. It's like reasonable to me. There's two n apps out there, but to two is fine.
We get to decide what you get.
Okay, I met the money line. I took the money line and all three of these dogs for or.
For full transperienced Trew doesn't realize he does get to be his own uh you know sec here. He thinks he's like to happens and bee. No, no, it doesn't work like too Okay, so he's getting the Bills plus two. Okay.
In in the preseason when this line was also expected to be in this range, I would not have taken exception. I would have said, yes, this Ravens team is unbelievable at stopping the run, and the Bills seem to want to be a running team without really any proof of concept that they have weapons in the passing game who can do anything. And yeah, this is a nice matchup for a Ravens defense to uh, you know, to keep the game in check and Bill's defense missing Milano questions
about the secondary. Are they going to have a pass rush? All of this, you know, really spells trouble I think for the Bills in this spot. So I'm fine with the Ravens being favorite now. I think with the information we have through three weeks, you have to acknowledge the fact that Josh Allen is playing the best quarterback in
the NFL by margin. I think you have to acknowledge the fact that the Buffalo Bills offensive line is elite, and I think you have to acknowledge the fact that the Ravens defense is missing a one Mike McDonald in terms of kind of being as conceptually sound, particularly in
past defense, as they were last year. They're still amazing and stopping the run, but this is a team that can be beat through the air, and I do think that the Buffalo Bills offense can continue their success, and it all kind of comes down to Josh Allen continue
to avoid making the key mistake. In my opinion, anyone who is betting the Ravens is basically expecting that this is the game There's going to be some sort of regression for Allen and turnovers, and I got to tell you, I've seen enough like he looks like he is a much more mature player than the guy that was out
there the last handful of years. He still has the elite skill set that it makes him a top two player in the NFL period, and I think riding him while he's on this heater is the obvious correct decision. And then when you flip the coin and you tell me, how are the Ravens going to deal with the negative game stated for the Manifests, This passing pass catching unit for the Ravens stinks, and they really have no one
that can generate significant separation. And now they're going up against the secondary that has you know, absolute elite cover corner so far out of Christian Benford. If you haven't heard that name already, go look at some of the advanced sets of the stats about what he's doing in terms of preventing separation and his on ball you know, his his ability to break up passes. He is playing at a probe CB one, Pro Bowl level to this point in the season and really going back to the
end of last season. So I don't know that that can be dismissed. And I think Douglas is equally equally good and at shutting down wide receiver two or the tight end and safeties are playing well. Pass rush is excellent against Baltimore O line that has huge question marks for me. So I think Buffalo better in both trenches, better quarterback, and just in general. You know, the team that ought to be small favorite here. So give me a plus.
Two, Toddy, now here was the thing. I was gonna take the Ravens against Drew's Bills plus two. You know what, So screwed.
Guy.
I don't mind going up against this week.
I acknowledge it comes in all relaxed at the long hair. He's probably got like a harem of ladies just outside the camera shot and a tremendous calming background in the back. I mean, this guy just looks like he's living the life. We're gonna have to go against him, that's all, Gilly, I'm going against him. Call me crazy. I'm gonna take the Baltimore Ravens at minus two. Okay. Now here's by the way, I agree with everything that Drew said. The Bills have been playing out of their minds. Okay, the
Bills are playing outstanding football. By the way, that Monday night football game, it wasn't even a game. After like two seconds, you could tell the game was over and and so, I mean, Buffalo has been unbelievable and they cry Miami. Now the game before that against Arizona, they were a little suspect on the defensive side of the ball. But you know, overall, the Bills really look good. However, however,
it's the National Football League. I've been betting on these games for too long to know that when a team beats a team thirty one to ten, like they did against Miami, then they come out the next week and beat Jacksonville eight hundred to nothing like they did. Can they cover the spread three weeks in a row like that against a team that's a very good team. Now,
on top of that, Baltimore's giving points. Right, So now everybody and their brothers going, wait, I get the Bills, the best team almost in football, and I get points. That to me sounds like trouble city in the National Football League. You got to go against Harbaugh? Is it home? They blew the game against the Raiders that they should have easily won by a thousand. Right now, you're asking Harbaugh to do a little Harbaugh potion. You know Harbaugh
and these big games, he cooks up some potions. I think he's gonna cook up some defensive potions for this Bills squad somehow slow them down. And it's not like the Ravens aren't good. They just went into Big d and just crush Dallas, absolutely crush their hopes, all their hopes, all their dreams down, all their hopes down right, So the Ravens, to me, that was a little rounds for all your hopes down, all your dreams, dout your faith sitting over there. Anyways, The point is, I just like
the spot. I love the spot here Baltimore. If they're gonna if they're gonna win one of these big games, this is the one. You gotta think. The Bills come in a little fat and happy. I like Baltimore minus too. If we get the turnovers, we're gonna win the game. Baltimore minus two.
I'll just jump in Will because I know you have one more. But I also I hate to have two that are exactly like Todd. I feel like the fledgling radio station that's trying to get better ratings against the big glast, so I just play the same songs. But for me, the number three pick was between the Broncos catching seven and a half and taking Baltimore minus two, and ultimately I can't the bow Nicks versus that Jets
defense scenario where they just get blasted. I couldn't do it, even though I think seven and a half is probably too. It's Baltimore, and for me, it's just about having not shedding my priors from before the season, right. I just think Baltimore is the better football team and as good as Buffalo has been. And I agree with everything Drew
is saying, there's nothing you said that was wrong. They have to be able to come up with something that stops these Josh Allen, Oh, you know what, I'm just gonna run the ball up the middle now on a designed run like. There has to be some kind of countermeasure to this, and I do think that Baltimore will be able to come up with it. I agree with the Mike McDonald's stuff. They're clearly not as good on defense without him bringing blitzes from every which way where
the quarterback can't figure it out. And Josh Allen, every which way you slice it up, uh total QBR passer rating EPA per play, he's number one with a bullet and all this, and yet I think the Baltimore Ravens are a good football team and that they will not fall to one in three and they will win this football game. I'm taking Baltimore minus two as well, Willy.
I guess can tell you guess if if the Rave, if the if the Buffalo Bills truck continues, they have three games in a row on the road, Ravens, Texans, Jets. This is a nightmare stretch. I would say that the one of the aspects of overperforming that you can usually capitalize, like you guys are kind of making out, is when the market overreacts and it's not yet right, like a win on Sunday Night Football, a third straight cover that's going to cause a flip to where the Texans game.
Maybe they're favored on the road against the Texans, like I think, you you know, don't don't lose hope, and don't don't be on the wrong side of this next to it if if the Bills take care of business, because yeah, there's you know, there are opportunities coming up. I think to fade these guys, but I just not seen it with this particular Ravens team. So we'll see.
We have Shmack talking possibilities comes Sunday Monday. All right, Will, what's the last one? Because my juice is running out.
Okay, do we have a Can I get a forty three in Tampa Philly? Since you're running out of time, you can.
Just say yes, forty three in Tampa Philly.
No, it's like that's widely available.
Yepes. Actually, I'm like you guys, yeah, I'm like you guys actually respect Drew's handicapping acumens. So I'm gonna kind of borrow from what he's thinking. I just I don't like this Philly offense in this spot. Tampa plays at a very slow pace. They're at the bottom of the league in terms of plays per game. Bowls, as Drew mentioned, did a great job against Herts last year in the
playoff game, held him to nine points. And if you're a Philly with no Brown, no Smith, maybe Becton's wearing a thing on his finger with a dislocated finger, Lane Johnson. All of those reasons to me, this is just more of a grinded out game. So I'm gonna play another under here. I'll go under forty three. And I don't know how you guys feel. I just I don't have a great feel for these teams in terms of the size of like who to back, who not to I just have a hard time getting a sense for any
of these teams. So hopefully I'll have a better luck here with an under well.
I was saying last week, I was like, I never do totals on the megapod, right, never, And the fact that I'm doing one a week and now all of a sudden is it says exactly what you're saying, will Like, I just none of these sides, Like, there's not enough of these that I love to play for sure. Teaser of the week drew two legs six point teaser.
Your fake Yeah give me, yeah, give me, give me two teams at home in the Wong zone. I'm gonna tease the Jet from seven and a half to one and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Colts from one and a half to seven and a half. I think the Colts Steelers game is going to be competitive. I think the Steelers just in general, still have the lot to prove in terms of being able to run an offense, particularly with both running backs being injured now.
And I think that's a game that's decided by a field goal either way, So happy to put me on the other side of seven and the Jets. This is it's kind of weird. The Broncos defense is being a little bit celebrated for their early season performance, but I think the absence of Alex Singleton is going to be significantly felt here. He was their only good linebacker. And I think the Jets might not punt in this contest. So give me Jets Colts as home teams. Low totals, long zone.
Speaking of EPA per play, Anthony richardson thirty second below, Bryce.
Young, this is a huge long week. By the way, it.
Is a huge longer. You are right about that.
There's like ten Yeah, there's like six choices here.
Yeah, I'll keep it prettyf I'll go Bucks and I'll go Colts for a lot of the reasons Drew mentioned.
I think they should be closer games.
Steelersn't blow anybody out, So Bucks Colts. By the way, your Tigers have cut it to three two for anyone looking for baseball updates from hours ago or days ago.
By the time he listened to this.
I have the Tigers to make it plus four fifty. I have the Braves to lose at uh you have the Braves lose at fifteen to one. I have it at plus seven to fifty. Todd, you're on the Braves too to miss the playoffs. Also, yes, all right, what's your teaser, Toddy?
My teaser is going to be the Jets minus one and a half. We've talked enough about why we don't think the Jets are losing this game. I believe you know, come on, Bonux, seriously, Jets minus. Although he did have one of the greatest scrambles in NFL history last week. Did he's got one scramble where he got out of like four ice backing him bad Jet?
Ye?
Yeah, it looked okay. But I don't think he's not going to beat the Jets. Jets minus the one and a half and give me the Bucks plus the eight. I believe the Bucks can keep it close here with all. The only thing I want to say about the Eagles is it sure seems to me when I watch the game the Jalen Hurts goes back to pass and hats the ball for about one hundred years a lot of the plays, and then he just runs out to the right and he throws it away or tries to run
for it. I don't think that downfield passing game looks very good for the Eagles. And now you've got all those wide receivers out. Give me the Bucks plus the eight.
I'm taking the Jets like so many here, and I am going to take the Saints longing wonging them through the three and the seven, because I don't see the Falcons blowing them in any scenario. So Saints Jets for Young Gil. Final two questions of each and every megapod, first one, Which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Outright? Not that many choices this week?
The Jets seven and a half point favorites at home against the Broncos, the Niners ten and a half point favorites at home against the Patriots, Chiefs seven point favorites on the road against the Charge. We were limited to limited to those three which drew. If one of them loses, who's it gonna be?
Oh man? I just wanted to note that it's fascinating that the big money today came in on the Jaguars. Moved that off of six and a half bounce down to five and a half across six is a big move. I'm going to say that the Chiefs are the most
likely to lose. And this seems insane to say out loud, but I just I think it's gone a little bit missed in the three games that they've know, the three wins so far, that every single high leverage opportunity for this offense to put away games they have failed every
single one. They're getting out to leads, they're playing with leads, but they're not doing sort of the classic you know, Andy Reid Mahomes put the game away with, you know, the drive that sucks five minutes off the clock at the end of the fourth quarter to you know, make it, make it, make it a clean win. They've been a little lucky, and I think it sounds like Herbert is
going to try to push through this. I know that everybody else is hurt here for the Chargers, but yeah, this is uh, this is again probably gonna you know, I think this is going to be a competitive game, and I think of the big favorites, I would be the most concerned about the the Chiefs, just based on a little bit of inflation in terms of how people are rating them.
Yeah, because the Niners, as banged up as they are, they really going to lose to the Patriots, and are the Jets that defense really going to lose to Bonnix? Is it is the chief the chief for everybody? Well, i'm gonna say Chiefs. I'll say chiefs.
Yees.
I would actually I'd be surprised if Herbert played. I haven't read the latest, but they have a by next week. They're beat up on the offensive line, though. Does the market think Herbert's playing? Because this line, even with.
Herbert, Herbert calls. Herbert has called his own number so many times to this career that it's crazy. Yeah, like how you you know, you know this sort of stuff, the kloak and dagger stuff where it's like literally like no, he can't you can't play, you can't play, he won't play. He's not going, Oh surprise, I'm going, you know, like he he is. I don't know that it's smart. It's never rational, but it sounds like he's going to push himself out there.
Wore by the way, can yes he did, because we're almost done the Chiefs did. I just want to say one thing about the Chiefs. I think that Andy Reid
has made the Chiefs running game. Dinker ball passes to Rice What I mean by dinker ball passes is like Mahomes goes back two steps, flips it to Rice and it's like either behind the line of scrimmage or just pass the line of scrimmage and Rice goes for like six or seven yards instead of just handing the ball to whoever they have back there, Steel or whoever now
is running. Yeah, they missed. My point is if you see that early in the game where Rice is getting targeted almost every play play, Rice over catches because it's I don't think they can make the number high. You see, what'd you say.
He's the whole You feel like he's the whole offense, Like Travis Kelsey looks like he lost a step and a half.
He's had dating issues. He's had dating issues, and that's the thing. But I just think, like I said to you at halftime, Rice, I believe had like six or seven catches at halftime, and they made it like ten and a half and it still wasn't high enough because they just every time they need four or five yards, they just flip it to Rice. You know. But anyways, I think Chiefs to lose just because it's harrorball. Maybe hardball will cook something.
Up all right, final question, Drew, we live in a bizarre world. You pick a side or you bet a side in every single game, but you get one free pass. What game do you want?
No part of the easiest question of the day, Gil, It's the Browns, Raiders.
Rounds, Raiders. Need you even explain that? Yeah?
I just how do you radio of these teams right now?
Yeah? Do we know who there's starting a quarterback for the Raiders. Doesn't matter.
I'm guessing it's going to be Gardner Minshew, probably doesn't matter. Everybody on the Browns is hurt. Yeah, your two most important players in this game are Garrett and Crosby. They're both missing time. They both know I no read on either if either guy goes or if either guy goes, if they're effective. Deshaun Watson might be the bortsch quarterback playing right now now that Bryce Young's out of the mix. Yeah,
I have I you could. You could come from the future and tell me that anything happened in this game, and I'm just going to shrug and say, yeah, okay, sure. Thirty seven three Browns, all right? Uh, twenty five twenty five to two Raiders one. Oh wow, that's a weird score. Yeah, I would believe anything.
That comment about Watson being the worst now that Bryce Young is out. That's pretty strong. That's pretty strong.
Take more sure, what would you take? I would take Lawrence over Watson in a heartbeat right now, in a heartbeat.
The thing is there's nobody blalking Drew. The other thing is he doesn't get any blocking. If you watch that Giants game carefully, he doesn't even get a minute.
It looks like whatever happened to his shoulder is still impacting his ability to make down till pass this he only has like four frows past ten yards in his arm at any given week. He put has to put his whole body into it, which means he needs to have a perfectly clean pocket to do it. And his mechanics. If you just watch what's going on with his feet as he's trying to hit his intermediate stuff, it's just an absolute shit show. Like he is just he's just
fundamentally broken. It looks like and I don't Yeah, you're not winning with that guy.
It's very reminiscent of RG three after the injuries. It's like the sort of like not spoken part about RG three, like yeah, he got hurt in his career got ruined, but his mechanics after he was out for a long time just went out the window.
And he hasn't gotten any mastage. He has had a massage in three years. Give the guy a break.
There were some funny tweets about Browns fans trying to connect Watson too all the Diddy stuff and saying he was at the parties to trying to get.
Yes, yes, please please, Feds figure out a way to connect this to Ditty so we can get rid of him. Yeah. Oh, gallows, Gallows humor, everybody, I'm with you. I'm gonna take the Browns. I'm gonna take the Browns and the Raiders as well. I think that of all again, I mean there's a lot I could say, but that, more than anything, I think would be the one I wouldn't runny part of it.
Will Saints Falcons. No, you know what, I'm not cutting in line to back the uh back anyone in this Titans Dolphins Monday Night bonanza. I bet enough Will Levis to laugh the lifetime. It's a Tyler Hontley from Miami.
No, thank you there.
It is a bonanza the first of two on Monday night is not the first? Is that the nightcap? That's a first?
Right?
Play him like the same time, which pisses me off?
How quick?
How like?
How much longer for the Titans before they say, okay, that's enough, Little Levis, we've seen.
I don't know why it's not now. I don't you see what Dalton did for the Panthers. Just put like Rudolph was decent for Pittsburgh last year. Why don't just go Rudolph.
Ill advised Billy Levi's todd, what's yours?
You want?
For me? It's the Bears and the Rams. I can't believe now. Granted, the Bears defense is supposedly this, Oh we're so good according to the statistics. You know, the Bears or great guard. You're giving three points. You have a very very big mismatchup. Coach. I believe Sean McVeigh. I'll take him over the other coach. And you're telling me the Bears a team that can't even block for their number one pick, who can't even throw when he's running around like a lunatic, and he's laying three points
to the Rams with Stafford. But of course I don't want Stafford either, because everybody's injured on their team, so you know I don't want any part of that one.
That was the line. I was the furthest off of the farthest off on lines. I actually thought the Rams would be favored by a tick. And even if I was wrong about that, how the Bears are full three point favorites. I will not understand despite all the RAM because the Bears are like, what are we doing with it? But I agree with you about the coaching right, the coaching alone should not be a three point spread. In
terms of the Bears. I think, boys, we've done all we can do, because apparently I can't figure out how to charge my computer without creating having apologize for that. Drew, thank you for the seismology update. If something does happen in southern California, this will live an infamy. This. Yeah, don't Drew.
With me, you know, giving you the business there. It's all done in total jealousy. I am in complete jealousy. More situation. Just so you know, situation.
I think you means your life, your situation.
Yes, very jealous in these groups chats with Wish, Nev and.
All of us, that's what.
It's a complete joy a complete joy Drew, Drew has enough.
Both of you guys can be ejected. I'll eject both of you right now. You want to go, you're having to hear.
Drew has enough group chats in his life. Believe me, different things as well. All right, boys, Thank you Drew Dinsik again, Whale Underscore Capper, Deep Dive podcast with Jay Croucher, Excuse Me with Andy Molitor and NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. How often do you do deep dive? How often do you do Bet the Edge? For everybody?
Oh, deep Dive is twice a week Mondays and Wednesdays. And Bet the Edge we do daily so you can check it out and it should be it's updated so that Monday Wednesday, Monday, Monday through Friday. It should be the first thing that hits your feed as you get up and you start thinking about football betting.
No more Sunday deep dives than you. Guys used to do it Sunday night.
We used to do it Sunday night. But it's that we're not actually betting any of the openers just because it's not financially so, so waiting until Monday when we get a little bit better limits is kind of the new strategy this year.
And are you still doing halftimes of prime time time?
For the prime times? We'll be going live for uh Cowboys Giants tonight and we'll be deciding between back in the Cowboys second half or second half over probably we'll see.
It's a great thing. Me and wish never we're going to do it. But Todd's too busy, he's you know.
It's not that I told you what it is. You don't have to be such a jerk about it. Oh my god, this is unbelievable, unbelievable.
It's your podcast, Todd. I apologize. All right, thank you for listening. We need to turn it around. I'm trying good luck with a tonight.
Wait wait, wait, you can't. You can't give me a little uh at t wishnev on Twitter And and by the way, if guys want to be in my oh you did, okay? Anyways, if you want to be in my what end game? Because my college f Paul has been doing pretty good, My pros is not not that bad either, but uh, you can always send me a message. I can't get everybody in that fast because it takes time to type in everybody's information, but I'll add him as as they come when I get time to sit down.
But you know, some people seem to.
Like it all right, and Will Hill he has the uh I wish I had wagered an additional amount of money on this sporting event, and now I have deep regrets about not having done so podcasts, which I told him. I said, that's a stupid title. Just call it shit a bit more. And he was like, Okay, how often do you do that, Drew? Uh Will? How often?
Three times a week? You know, as an avid listener? Three times a week Monday Wednesday.
Friday Wednesday? Right, okay, thanks for listening. Good luck with all your beads. Week bore and then Ashen Football