Beating The Book: 2024 Week 3 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Check It down Man. Thursday morning, September nineteenth, twenty twenty four is the Beating the Book podcast megapod for week number three in the National Football League. It's skill Alexander hasn't gone well for me weeks one and two predicted after a two year just stretch of greatness, and now Todd is in the early lead, and I'm sure we'll hear all about it. Our regular guests are regular staples

Why don't you mention that I'm also not paying one hundred dollars to park down at the Rivers and that because they're not gonna screw me in that because I got the card, So I don't care what you ends are thinking. You're gonna make me pay one hundred dollars just because everyone's going down to act for sure that new way.

Someone asked me to do a yins er accent on a numbers game and I completely watched it today, completely watched it. It was not good Will Hill, not from his mom score attic, but Todd, what what was your comment you'd like to make about Will every week? What is the thing the story got it?

We're getting we're getting like one point oh five of Willy every week. So we get a little bit more Willy, and then a little bit more Willy, and it starts to compound and then you look up, all of a sudden, he's filling up the whole face area. So you gotta wonder. I mean, I'm a guy who shouldn't be throwing stones, as I have fluctuated over hundred pounds, but you know I have a keen eye, and I could tell there's more Willy to go around.

Your keen observation. Keen eye is correct.

Football season's taking its toll a little bit on the on the exercise regime diets.

I need to tighten it up. I appreciate you pointing it out, and.

Uh, this could be a little psydechics to you just point out people that are getting fatter and just you know, kind of shame them into losing the weight.

By the way, it's Will be from the should have been more podcast. That's the thing about you, Todd. It doesn't matter if you're three bills. You just it's outgoing with you. You just just shoot at everybody, don't you.

Because I'm not part of society, and I don't think there's anything wrong with being fat unless you ought to be healthy. And my friend Willie, he wants to be healthy. So I'm trying to help the guy out.

You've lost weight, right, you look thinner than you did two weeks ago.

For really you do. I'm down about eight pounds. I've had ten good days and four bad days, and I played tennis four five times.

Okay, oh look at you. You know what that tells me. You feel the heat from young Gil on the tennis court, and you are ripping your sape yourself into shape. I know exactly what's happening. It's over. He knows it's over. It's like Ali even one, he won the thriller in Manila, but he knew he'd never be as great again. That's

Five five days a week, five.

Days a week, Monday through Friday, right Monday through Friday, no shift, right, yep, Friday, And Todd was just saying off air how much he enjoyed it injury reports for every team. Adam is also at Right Angle Sports. Uh, Stevie Fesick was here. We could have like a complete war going on because Stevie has it up. What does he happen? It was crawl about Right Angle Todd? What's his story? He just hates he.

Has panties and a bunch in major Yes, Adam, Now.

No, Well, it gets overblown because everything on Twitter that has posted is taken one hundred times more serious than if it was said in person, where it's a non factor. So it's there's a heel and heal and face like wrestling style thing going on here that is maybe taking a bit out of proportion.

That's how he's so much sugar. He's also sugar.

That's how I introduced him on the podcast two weeks ago. I said, really nice in person and the biggest asshole you'll ever meet on Twitter, Steve, that's the intro. Thank you for doing this.

That is appreciated ninety nine out of one hundred people on Twitter. That's reality especially.

Yes, I don't know what that is about gambling Twitter where everybody has to be that way on Twitter, but it just is, how's your season gone so far? First two weeks?

Let's start there, Uh, treading water above water, but treading water nothing too. It's been a weird opening two weeks. I would say, just a couple things in game not expected and just a couple of bad breaks late on fourth quarter stuff. So treading water above it, but could be better.

Could be better. You still in Canada, Adam? Is that where you're coming to us from? Still in Canada? Yep?

Still same spot, not going, not going too far between now and February. So locked in just south of Vancouver.

Wasn't there a moment where you wanted to move to la Am? I am I not remembering that correctly.

I in twenty twenty two, I desperately tried to and it was just one of the hardest things that you could ever do, is be a Canadian and get papers in the United States. As a person who especially so in this industry, in this side of the world, it is it is very tough to prove and get the paperwork. So it didn't work out. But as in as warm of a climate as I can be here in Canada, so at least think that.

Damn Justin Trudeau. My girlfriend is from Toronto and getting her back and forth during the pandemic was the worst. Oh, it was just ridiculous. Todd wishnev is chomping at the bit to give the records for the first two weeks, So Todd, please let's have it.

I don't see me jumping at the bit at all. I mean, I just think, you know, it's a reversion to the me when you have to do.

We have the best care record, because this, for me is the biggest sweat of the season of any immedia.

I appreciate. I appreciate Adam so much for this, Like he says, he genuinely will DM me afterwards and be like, I'm more nervous about my megapod picks than i am about every other picks the rest of the year. I love that about correct, because it's this guy because he's a shamer, is what he is.

My good friend Gilly, and my good friend Gilly had the Texans minus six and a half. They were inside the five yard like they're about to go in ball and it's a sixth point when and Gilly thinks, what we call the oh and three, let's do that one more tiko oh and three. And by the way, he also had Detroit in his teaser to go to oh and two. So mister Gilly, as we predicted, was going to have a regression to the mean after his thirty eight and fifteen miracle season. He stands at one four

Hey, hey, no, By the way, my other lost Titans plus four was could have just as easily been a win.

So why didn't you mention that too?

Oh, there's four terrible beats here.

Titan's Actually I will agree with him, Titans plus four is probably a good good side.

I just did the.

Old because of ill advised Billy Levies, who has costed himself two games already. That's why.

Yeah, block blocks.

Nobody cares. I had a ho hum two and one to go to five and one. How is that even possible? That's like, I don't even know what the percentages. It's five and one. I won my teaser as well to go to one and one to lead the teasers, and Adam Churnoff will represent the guests share today. The guests set two, three and one and their teaser record one and one as well. So Adam has his work cut out for him to bring the guests back into alignment.

Here we go, There you go.

That's the attitude. That was a lot of page like scrolling for a lot of like not that much information. What is all that about?

Like moving the sho Do we want to talk about Sean Payton on size kicking the ball?

Okay, Well, here's the thing. Sean Payton was absolutely going to be the Dumbo of the week until the whole Nick Sirianni thing happened. Right, do we agree on that the Sean Payton thing was he had one time out? You think Sean Payton is worse? Okay, Sean Payton had one time out left first of all. Before that, before that, let me kaya, I wasn't prepared for this. Let me let me get the exact detail because I don't want to mess it up.

Kick thee.

He kicked the field goal at thirteen and nothing, but I want to get exactly how much time anyway it was.

It was.

It was in the fourth one one down. It was about no no, no, no, no, not the first, not the first one. The first one wasn't one forty. They were down two thirteen and nothing, two touchdowns. He kicks a field goal basically to avoid a shutout. It felt like right, and you're like, okay, they get another field goal. So then he kind of like had plausible deniabilities, like you see now we only need one. But anyway, down thirteen at that point he kicks the original field goal. Okay,

One fifty one fifty four left when he when they kicked the field goal, and then the.

Steelers had they kicked the field goal. Okay, hold on, hold on, stop to Tod, stop talking, Tot, stop talking for a second. So no, but you're not one fifty four left right. That's when he had to declare. He had to say, I do declare an on side kick, and he did not declare an on side kick. They just kicked away with one time out left, so they ended up as you say, the Steelers then had the ball after that, right, and then they ended up the Broncos did, with the ball at their own nineteen yard

It sounds so much worse when you say it out loud a few days later.

It's so bad. What was he doing? What's the xbox?

Also?

Did you mention too he punted with it was under eight minutes left, down ten and he punted on like fourth and six or something.

Oh I didn't I didn't mention that.

Wow, Wait, I'll tell you either. There was there was seven seven forty eight to go, they're down thirteen to three fourth and eight from the Denver thirty three. They decided to punt.

Yeah, okay, also also.

Not as egregious as the other three egregious heads.

No, well, the lead changing the rules and going from five quarters to four quarters.

I think really caught Sean payonof guard this week.

It's really really it's like when it's like when Todd has to come up with his three best bets, He's like, oh, let me see. Wait, so you you Todd believed that was worse than Nick Sirianni.

You know, I mean, I obviously I would have liked Nick Siriana just line up and do tush push two times in a row and that would have been the end of that. But but you know, I understand, Okay, he's he throws the ball out, It's oh, yes, do just catch it? Fine, whatever it's bad. I'm not saying it's not bad. I'm just saying I don't understand the on Science kick thing at all. Can you not do the math? How are you going to get the ball?

I kind of understand what you're saying, because as bad as the Sirianni thing was, and you can't like the Sirianni thing, and I get it. There were some people on Twitter that were pushing back like it was a simple play call. He just should have caught it. You just can't allow for that possibility. Right. The win probability goes from you're dead too, here's a free get out of jail card.

Right.

But you're kind of right, I think todd because while Sirianni and the Eagles can at least say, well, this was the play call and it should have worked, there is no response from Sean Payton. Right. There is no possible explanation.

Hold on, let's stop. Is your grievance with Sirianni the third or the fourth down call or a combo of both. Let's put this in context.

My grievance with Sirianni was was I went through it the other day? Was A was a number of things. One he was he was right to decline the off side first of all. That was the Atlanta was right to try to jump off. Sirianni was right to decline the off side when they got to third and three at the ten with no timeouts left for Atlanta. My problem was you cannot call a pass play there because you cannot allow for the possibility of a stoppage of the clock. You should run it, you should run it again.

Well? I pushed back there a little bit because I would rather have that play call run to win the game than to set yourself up to defend the clock. And I think pregame ninety nine out of one hundred Eagles fans, player staff, whatever you want to put it on, you said there was a wide open pass to Barkley on a third and three to win the game. Do you want that as the option? I don't think anybody is saying no. To that and the.

Most drops also, he has a million he does in that spot.

I mean, Atlanta had nine guys at the line of scrimmage, and so I don't even if it was a run play, it's a dead run play there's and that was his defense after the game, He's like, they've been junking up the middle and they weren't gaining anything on that third down run play. Wait, there's a wide open play for Barkley in the flat to win the game. I don't think that's a I think the fourth field goal was that disaster.

I agree with you, that's the part I left. The fourth down field goal was also a disaster because, as we talked about it, lets it then forces Atlanta to have to go for the touchdown as opposed to changing the calculus for the field goal. Right, that's what you were say, Will.

But I also liked it. If you don't get it on fourth and you're defending up three, the way you defend up three in that scenario is much different than the way you defend up six in the spot that they were. I think in that it makes it a lot more straightforward for what you want to do. And we saw the Eagles caught in between. That field goal

We agree completely on the fourth down decision to get the field goal, not to give a villa as I went through when I went through it on a clip on Twitter on a Numbers game, I completely agree with you about the fourth down field goal. You should never have kick the field goal there. We're going to disagree on the third because everything you're saying is right right. It was a play they had it. The nine guys up stacked up top. They are the inventors and the

Okay, I have another question to push back on the spot here. The Eagles on the second drive of the game were third and four at the Atlanta eight. Should should he be criticized for not running the touch push twice in that scenario because he didn't? Yes, and they ended up saying he fells that on him as well. Process wise.

Wait, wait, are you talking about the one where they went for it on fourth down?

Yes, it was.

Instead they should have just kicked the field goal.

They went past past late first quarter inside the Atlanta ten, third and four, fourth and four. Didn't get it right. They kicked the field Is that criticizable as well?

Yeah, they should have kicked the field goal there not for the reasons you're trying to get me to say, it's uncriticizable. They should have kicked. Wow, we should just kick the point. We're not going No, we're not going both ways. No, we're not going both ways. That's the first quarter of a game where just take the points. Don't be allergic to field goals. This was a scenario with win probability, where the only thing that matters is

I did less three verse fourth and third and four or whatever.

But they're gaining five and a half on the ground every time they give the ball to the running back to Hurtz, So for four yards two plays seems easy.

If you're If you're trying to get me to say that the that you must behave the same way in a fourth quarter clinching scenario versus a zero zero game where you can just take three points. I disagree with the premise. I don't think it's the same thing. I don't think you can apply those things the same way.

So he should have. You're saying you should have kicked on the second drive of the game.

Yeah he should.

I couldn't believe he didn't take that. I didn't. Yeah, I didn't believe. I couldn't believe he didn't take the points. Then, I don't these teams that are allergic to field goals and a zero zero game. I mean, it's four yards. It's you know, it's fourth and four at that point. It's not the third and four thinking push push twice. They didn't toush push on the third down, So it's not the same scenario. It's fourth and four at that point in the first quarter. It's different. It's it's not

I don't have the numbers, and I wish I did. There's one hundred people, including yourself, that are smarter for me on this, but I just I'm curious how to me the like, the end of game stuff always gets magnified a hundred times more than what happens earlier in the game, despite it often being similar down and distance and play calling structures. And I just sometimes I think that gets in a similar way to Dan Campbell last

No, I understand what you're trying to say. But that fourth quarter scenario, it's the the clock can end it kind of scenario that doesn't apply to the first quarter thing. You're right saying, like it started third and four as the same scenario, but everything else is different that claw you know.

What else could have ended it? Though a first down on Saquon Barkley catching the football would have ended the game.

Too, right, But we all agree that a dropped pass is far more likely in that scenario than say, a fumble on a run. Right, So you're opening yourself up to a get out of jail free card possibility that wouldn't otherwise exist, And that, to me is the key point. You have them done, but just to give them life, and that's what happened. You can't. To me, that's the risk reward assessment. It's not armchair quarterbacking after he dropped it.

Okay, So a fair way to put this in context and wrap it would be that they should have ran the ball on third down and then throwing it on fourth if they didn't gain anything to try and get the first down, rather than kicking the field goal.

That fair to say they should have. They should have run on third down and reassessed depending on how many yards they got on third down, Right, Like I think it's.

The field goal should have never been an option ever.

Never Ever, I agree with you on that. Yeah, what else do we Todd? Did you have an in game scenario you wanted to talk about it?

Yes? I do. The whole point was Adam though Sean Payton needs to on site to kick the ball. That was me.

There's no, it didn't happen. It's indefensible.

No, I do I actually understand you're you're thinking there, Todd, which is there is no defense for the Sean Payton one right to me?

I don't see it unless he thinks he can block u pun on fourth down more than he can on side kick it. But I don't see it anyways. Will's gained another two pounds in the in the meantime.

So that's not funny feelings.

It's not funny brutal.

So one last comment on the Seohn Payton thing. I was not born in nineteen eighty eight, that is when he was first coaching, so it's not like he's been around forever and he still makes that gaff. How do you get to that point, after nearly forty years of doing this, that you're in that scenario. I don't understand.

That's why I said. That's why I said, Adam, I texted him. I said something that fishy is going on, because there's no way Peyton doesn't know that if he does this, he's going to have no time out left. So I don't know how to explain that. There's no explanation of a forty year NFL coach who won the Super Bowl not being able to understand there's gonna be no time left when he gets the goddamn ball back. So I just to me, it's the dumbest thing I've

And it's not even like a point differential keeping like making it look better, because even if you don't get the onside kicked or just kneeling it out anyway. So I don't know what the lodger like, they weren't trying to score. If they don't get it, I don't get it.

Is it possible he just lost his fastball? Like players just get older, and like he's looking now, he's sixty. It's not like he's ancient, but players get old and aren't good anymore. Is it possible he's just old and not good anymore?

I don't know.

Listen, this is not in your fastballs. Losing directions to the stadium and driving with the wrong city kickoff.

That's me, I say on the radio side, I say all the time I go. The two biggest lies. I said, there's only one bigger lie in sports that Ega is only a clay court tennis player. Right, that's the biggest lion sports two. Sean Payton being a quarterback whisperer.

Right.

I think everything about Sean Payton, this reputation that he has as being this great coach is all one big lie. Drew Brees came to him as a finished product. I only had a shoulder injury in San Diego, but he was like a great free agent quarterback acquisition. I will hang up and wait to see how many other quarterbacks Drew Brees has had success with the answer is zero, nobody, And somehow he has this reputation as this great quarterback. Whisper is the word I use, is the word I

Joe gibbsonew not to on sites kicked in that scenario. I think, yeah.

But there were times where Greg Williams, as the defensive coordinator, had to explain to him a couple of things like he couldn't like call time out twice in a row on a kick or some shit right like. So there was some stuff. So I think will Is will might be onto something too.

One last thing was taking two.

I don't understand why he put this sort of pressure on Nicks, on himself. I mean, he talked a big game about Nicks, like, oh, the draft combine blew us away. He built him up like he was going to be this next, you know, big time quarterback. He again, maybe he had his reasons, but wouldn't you just sort of

And I remember Tod mcsha.

I think it was said he talked like thirteen different scouts NFL people, and not one.

Of them had a first round great on bo Nick.

So there were some arrogance with this pick, and there were some arrogance since they picked him, you know, in.

Terms of how this was handled.

Well, he's kind of the example, Oh sorry, Gil, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.

I was going to say, I think he was in a weird spot where it was such a blunder with Russ, and he pushed to get him out of there so much that he kind of had to take his his stance and to why they were backing him to give some sort of like optics and some hope around that. But I do think that league wide, just with head coaching tenures becoming so short cycled, I think we're seeing a lot of coaches take a stand with a quarterback that they're attached to to lead them to success, to

Is why Joe Jacksonson Gibbs is the greatest NFL head coach has ever lived. The thisman Williams rippon three Super Bowls and also about that.

Arry Bonds was a better NFL coach. I was going to make a box. Uh.

Sean Payton came in job crushing Nathaniel Hackett in a way that coaching fraternity, that the coaching fraternity dictates you never do to another coach. He was an asshole to Hackett. He was further an asshole to Russell Wilson, who deserved for forever forever bad Russell Wilson has become deserved more fucking respect. Excuse my French right. And Sean Payton, by the way, was a was an nineteen eighty seven scab that has somehow gotten washed away in history. Also, like,

Anyway, Sorry, okay, anyways, can I give you one? I had a delicious in game that I that I wanted to talk about that I think a lot of people would help them. Towards the end of game, Cincinnati is playing the Kansas City Chiefs. It's Cincinnati's ball, first down at their own sixteen with seven minutes left, and they're leading twenty five to twenty three. So now here's the thing. If you're just watching the game, you have to be looking at the apps, because the apps are like a

Nice smarty pants, you are a good podcast.

I'll see you guys next week. This was fun.

No, that was a good one. I am by the way, were you and all? This has nothing to do with your end game, but but the result of that game. You know, the amazing stat of the NFL field goal kickers are thirty five of thirty nine on field goals of fifty plus yards this year and Justin Tucker's oh win two. So there really thirty five and thirty seven outside of what we believe is the best kicker in the NFL and Justin Tucker. We'll see if that's the case. Were you amazed?

How about that? Was Don gil yes over over three and a half field goals the game props typically plus one point fifteen. It is twenty seven and five.

Wow, wow, oh man edible twenty seven and five.

Because you have Tea betting at Adam. Are they catching up at all or no?

So I tried to round Robin All sixteen last week and it was tough to get down and get it around. But there's been a full effort into doing so and it's been very good. But these primetime games where it's pretty wide open and you get all the alternates has been has been excellent so far. So I don't know. I think it's partially obviously, kickers are way better than they ever have been before. But like you think about you think about five years. Five years ago, the average

Goals the Jets games over three and a half plus one oh eight, So I guess they haven't really been moving him yet.

No, it's I feel it's been very consistent. It's usually like if there's a lower total game like this, it'll be in that plus one oh five plus one ten and then it'll kind of linger around in that. So it's it's been very consistent so far.

I was going to say, at the end of that Kansas City Cincinnati game, were you as amazed as as I was about the nonchalance with which the Chiefs were like, yeah, we'll just kick a fifty one yard or to win it, like it was an extra.

Yeah, that's not even a thing anymore. It really isn't.

Yeah, they were treating like it was an old school extra point, like they were at the two yard line.

It was like, it's still fifty plus yards.

Yeah, problem, It's just it was like, yeah, we'll just kick it, and Bucker bisected the uprights like it wasn't.

Even which was That's why they have to move the goalposts in and make it more exciting, because I don't find it at all. When you get to the thirty eight yard line and you kick a fifty five yard field goal, it's just stupid. I don't even like it.

You know what the answer is, Todd, You put a so you have the goal posts, right, you have the crossbar. You put a top post across so it becomes a square.

Oh look at you.

There you go. That's interesting.

But I don't like that. I like that. I like the field goal post moved in.

Your head just exploded.

I saw you processed interesting idea. It is interesting. Don't get me wrong. I still would rather have like the posts moved in, because then you don't lose the whole idea of football, doesn't become like a silly thing like four point shots in NBA or something.

If you want to go.

To post ball type on some of those posts, no not, it doesn't have to be arena ball type. But I'm sure they could figure out exactly how far they have to move them in to make a fifty five yard field goal. Now like a forty percent play as opposed to a seventy percent play. I don't like a seventy percent Do you guys like it? Do you guys like enjoy watching fifty five yard field goals be a seventy percent play? I can't stand for Yeah, that's.

Great, but.

Forget about the props for a second, just for the aesthetic of the game. To me, I think you need to be the defense. How is the defense going to stop people from getting the thirty eight yard Linde? It's getting ridiculous? Can the defense get something? My god, you know it's I don't you know.

Larry David's suggestion is to this. He was on Rich Eisen Show and he and he was allowed. He's like, what would suggestions? What would you change? He says, get rid of the goalposts, get rid of the goalpost, like get no field goal kicking, just get rid of it. Because he in his brain right, He's like, what does that have to anything to do with football anyway?

You know?

Which is which is a pretty amusing point. And then his second one was give me a couple of years to decide about punters too, Like I don't know if I want punters anymore either. So it's like I mean it's different. That's just the turn off box theory is there is what we're going with the other one.

I played the game forever with.

I was gonna say, if we played the game forever with no kickers and no punters, nobody would be sitting here saying we need kickers and punters. But because it's always been that way, it's just it's the way it is. I will say, I don't know what you guys think. It doesn't bother my. You know, enjoyment of the game one thing. Watching every minute of these games the last couple of weeks, thing that bothers me way more. And

I love a good I love a good unnecessary roughness flag in my game. I like it that that spike of Jalen Hurts when he spiked the football. Imagine if you're a young kid watching that and you see that violent act on the field of him spiking the football after a first down, what are you thinking?

By the way, And I hope people get that. I hope people understand.

People did not get.

Well actually shot at Adam and sent it to Gil the other day.

That was funny, alkins. Guy was shooting into the stands, and then you guys all correctly told me that you're not allowed to shoot. You know, I allowed to pretend shooting. But then somebody said, well what if he was shooting T shirts into the stands. It's like, oh, now we're gonna we're gonna like have the refs figure out what the celebration is. It's like, come on, that was to me at it whatever? Just no more, fIF.

Right, let's talk about Thursday night? Is it one of your best bets at all? Does anybody have a best bet on tonight's game?

No?

No, I kind of want to. And I know Adam's gonna hate me because I think I know where Adam stands on this game tonight. But I think I want to make the Patriots my third. I didn't think me and Adam would be at odds on all this stuff, but I think I think I want to make the Patriots my third. But it's six now, it's not six and a half, right.

I have six?

It is six flats?

Yeah yeah, and I keep I keep losing. Oh yeah, it's mattered twice already to me, on this podcast a half point. I am going to make it my number three. I just think low total. Six points. Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna kill myself after this, but six points. I think again, the Patriots are run heavy. There was a stat about by the way, I think it's gonna be a very ugly game tonight. That's my feeling. But Patriots have used six or more offensive linemen twenty six plays

I do think we see a different version of the Jets offense tonight. I think if Seattle's offense last week in Foxbrow was any indication of how teams want to approach them, because I don't. I mean, Gino throwing the football forty four times last week was just wild to me. And so the Jets have not been able to run at all. And I just wonder if this becomes a bigger Rogers game. They don't really want him to be like a thirty plus attempt guy he might be tonight.

Can you imagine the drama tonight if it was to zero to two Jets versus the two and oh Patriots, which we weren't that far away from him, like Salama, Yeah, we really were.

This is awesome.

This is I mean last year Week one was a massive home game for the Jets that obviously ended in it ended in celebration, but that was masked by just terror and doom for the rest of the season. But this is probably the biggest Jets home game since the decker end zone catch against the Pats in twenty fifteen late in the season, probably, if I had to put my spot on it, so like that that crowd last year Week one was as ridiculous of a Jets crowd

You are a Jets fan, correct, Adam, Now that I'm thinking about.

It, yes, I am. It's it's been a long, long, long life of stuff.

Front Runner. Yeah, I kind of agree with you.

I kind of agree with you. Like what did the Patriots do in the first two weeks of the season to make people think that it's not a If they had Jakobe Weressett starting and just doing game management, they could win six, seven, eight games. They were hanging right in the game with Cincinnati and got a couple of breaks and won it, And they hung right in the game with Seattle. Are the Jets that good? The Jets got smoked the first week and last week, I mean

It is I mean, it is worth saying that it is the ultimate. Perhaps I'm being fooled by recency bias play too, right, because if we go back two weeks, we were all I'll speak for everybody, but I'm sure there were exceptions to this. We all thought the Patriots were going to be by far the worst team in the NFL, and we all thought the Jets were going to be one of the best and their defense was

Last quick thing.

Adam, I'm curious what you think, do you think the Reddick deal gets done? Doesn't it seem like Reddick has more leverage now or before he was kind of thought as a luxury and now they kind of need him, and whatever he wants money wise, maybe you give it to him now.

I don't know. The way that this has been botched from day one is baffling to me. And now it's you lose Johnson, who was seven and a half sack guy last year, who was going to be the guy that was benefiting from this egos down there's no outside pass run. McDonald is coming along, but asking him to be the main pass rush guy for the whole season is crazy to me. And so the fact they somehow didn't find the way to make this work and the fact that both sides seem to have lost from this.

Shall we start with the other best bets? Adam you're number one, SA we start with you.

Well, we just picked on Sean Payton for about half an hour, but I'll take the six and a half. She'll make for good podcast listing on the road to Tampa Bay. I look at who Denver's played the first two weeks. It was just no rookie quarterback is going into Looman to take on Mike McDonald, one of the best defensive minds and doing anything, and Bo Nixon and the Broncos did not. Week two. Who does he get?

On the road.

Yeah, I had considered Tampa Bay as a possible survivor pick, but I can't play them. The too many injuries, too many injuries and there is Yeah, yeah, h Toddy, you're first, sir. Those cards are those cards stuck in the cork?

Like?

What are those greetings cards? What are those back there? Post its notes?

Yeah? Different, different stuff. My dad used to put up there and nobody ever took them down. Anyways. The Jaguars, I'm going to take an ugly Jaguars. What do I get? Five? Yeah, I know, Stevie. Stevie says, I'm an idiot. Stevie says, I'm an idiot. I don't care. Jaggs plus five against the Bills. Okay, So here's what we saw from the Bills. The Bills didn't really wow me on defense against the Arizona Cardinals, and they won the game in a high

He's not even here, He's not even saying anything here. You are so angry at him, by the way, Jacksonville twenty five, Buffalo twenty Last year, it was the result was that London? Yeah, I guess it was London, Yes, yeah, will Willy, what do you like? U?

Chargers? Steelers under thirty six?

I think there's enough thirty six is to give it to me, right, I'm kind of split between thirty five and a half and thirty six.

I see enough. What do you guys see.

Six?

Uh?

Yeah, thirty six thirty six sir, yep.

Yeah.

I'm just gonna keep riding these Steelers unders until they buck me. I just think the Steelers are a dead nut.

Under team.

It's a little like Iowa football of the past decade, where uh, they're just gonna play ball control. They're gonna punt fourth and two, fourth and three. They're gonna be very conservative. They're gonna take their field goals, their quarterback runs. They like to run Chargers the same sort of thing where hardball is an old school coach. I think seventeen points probably wins this game. Chargers don't have a lot of explosiveness on offense. The uh you know, the Charger

Yen's I considered the fact that Rivers is charging eighty dollars to self park and one hundred dollars for Valet, and that now that's a lot to park. And Yen's gotta think if people are paying that much to park, they're gonna be yelling Ladder and that probably is gonna confuse Herbert and then it could be lead to even more of an under, maybe you should do an under twenty eight and a half in that what is speaking of unders?

I have under eight and a half wins for the Steelers. They went too and oh to start two and oh on the road and we're still eight and a half, which is very strange.

Hold on what is rivers.

River's Casino is next door to the Akroscher Stadium for the football games, so it goes there's PNCP.

You have to pay one hundred and twenty dollars to park there.

It's on a Steeler game day, not pirate games, Steeler game Day or pitt game day. They're now charging one hundred dollars for valet and eighty dollars for self park unless you have a card, and they send you these emails saying on September twenty first, if you show your card, you could get in for free. So I always do that, but it's it's absolutely like unbelievable that people actually pay it.

They that's why.

They have the Eli Holstein fever in Pittsburgh.

Todd Yep, oh my god, you should. I think I sent you guys a video of what the book looked like when the when pitt got the last touchdown at the end. People were going absolutely bonkers, and that was my friend went to the game. He said it was It was just an insane scene down there because there was Watch Virginia fans, Pitt fans. It was like a whole craziness.

By the way, we're giving a hard time with that was a good pick by him.

Yes, please don't say that. That was a doctor Bob pick that Pheesick magically came up with as.

One of his aggregated it. He aggregated it.

They were both on it, and they were both on it.

Yeah, so they're both on it. I have hosting at a thousand into one to win the Heisman. Let's go baby. By the way, he hasn't claimed his judaism yet, so downgrade. Okay, I only do one here because I already gave one right.

Sure, yes, you do you do one here?

Okay?

Yeah?

Can I do? Can? I? I think I can do this right because I'm not doing it in a correlated parlay or anything. I want the under in tonight's game too. Have we ever had that happen before? Two picks on the Thursday night that I am going for it under thirty same reasoning as before I just think it's a run heavy game for the Patriots because that's all they got. I do think that the injuries makes it a little muddy because I don't exactly know how that plays out

Wait, truly, do you hear that? Really? Can you hear that? I hear it. They're thirty seven to three is the score of Andre Stevens, and in the backfield twenty two seconds to play, were set back the past looking looking did he get it? Yes?

He did?

Final score thirty seven dead. Oh my god, that's gotta hurt. Gilly.

You botched it because thirty seven to three I already would have lost.

Oh I messed it up. I'm sorry. Thirty one three. Sorry, great happening, like what's the drama?

But good effort there on that. So we go back to Will with snaked.

And I am going to go back to the Tennessee Titans laying two against the Packers. I don't buy this idea that Jordan Love is going to start the Vikings on deck next week. By the way, our buddy Fez gave out in our group chat here, Fez getting a lot of airtime here minus two and a half next week against the Vikings with the idea that they're going to save Love for next week. I buy that you stole a win with Will. There's no reason to force him.

If you had the.

Titans plus four last week, it was a bad beat. If you have the Titans plus.

Four the week before, a desperate zero and two team, a pretty good defense, a quarterback who I don't think is really, you know, on the level of an NFL quarterback. I think the Titans find a way to win this game. I'm okay laying the two with.

The Titans is two? What you guys have to.

Let's see here, will Will's trying to snake a half a point? Office? Is that what's happening?

I see two and a half, but maybe wrong.

I see a lot of twos.

I see a lot of two and a half's, but I also see pinnacle. Pinnacle just went to a pick them, is am am? I seeing that?

Right?

So I don't know.

It's too that's fine, I'll take the pick them. That's okay too.

No, I'm just saying I don't know what they're.

Doing two and a half.

It is two and a half. May you lose on a half point? May you? May you lose on a hook like I do every week.

Oh that's really nice.

Thanks, You're We're welcome. He's got to try to get back in it.

I gotta get back in Tennessee.

By the way, Willie, have you taken into effect. Tennessee is going to get a punt block for a touchdown because that's part of their game plan.

Have you also taken into account that ill advised Billy Levey's will try to flick the ball out of bounds and I'll go back for a pick.

Six two weeks by the way, Oh, well.

He's who is now that will? I don't even know.

I'm looking mar I think you can keep him. Get Duck Hodges. Get Duck Hodges.

Wasn't bad that the last quarter of the season for Pittsburgh wasn't terrible.

No, he was like, you're right, he's very good.

No, Billy, Oh.

Yeah, toddam no expect for me.

Okay, Uh, for my second pick, I'm going to do something a yiinsers not to pace to do, and I'm going to go to Cleveland Brownies. I don't know if you've ever heard about this club, the mistake by the Rike. I'm going to take the Browns minus the six and a half. Why am I doing this? You ask, Well, first of all, I don't think the Giants can play offensive football. Now you're gonna say, but they scored three

To your point, Todd's Skins are giving up six point two yards per play on defense. Six points.

That's good.

I'm told that's say.

They played Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones.

That's correct now, by the way, or the Giants gonna have a ticker.

Well, one would assume with a week that the Giants would have a kicker. Let me not assume, though, Let's find out real quick. Graham Gano's a hamstring injury and warm ups was the only reason why Washington won that game. The Giants did, in fact, sign veteran kicker Greg Joseph off the Detroit Lions practice squad and placed Graham Ganot on IR two days ago. So there you go. They have addressed it with Greg Joseph because that's why. Because

And then, by the way, that's why I played Washington. I played Washington at eighteen eighteen. When the Giants had the ball. You could have the you could have the Redskins plus two and a half minus one oh five, And I wanted the two and a half because I thought maybe we could have a tie with no field goals. I figured, you having a field goal kicker there has to be worth a zillion points in that scenario for that exact reason, because they haven't, you know what I mean.

But anyways, a zillion is act a zillion What it came out to him, I'm sorry.

Imagine an offense targeting their best player on a short pass on fourth and short. Who can imagine.

Circling back, ladies and gentlemen circling did that? See what he did there? Very clever? All right, Adam?

You get to thinking, was it Casino or good Fellows?

When he tells them to shine the shoes out again after it dies down, get your shine.

Box up, all right?

That's it.

Flips the table.

I'm putting the guest seat in really trusted hands here After going with bo Nicks in game number one. Let's go with Caleb Williams in game number two. I'll take the Bears. We'll say plus one and a half on the road, maybe even go plus one. I'll leave that up to the officials. Stenographer a little.

To what do you guys see I see it too, what do you guys see the two?

I'd be curious between one and a half or one.

One.

I mean he's gonna need everything. Kind of a similar scenario like Week one. Tennessee to me is a very kind of sneaky underrated defense, very good D line, very good group of D tackles, And so that was a bit of a tough intro for Williams, not as tough as what he faced on Sunday Night Football going into Houston, where Qbs are just going to get beat up and struggle every single time that they go into Houston to

Two things. One, Gus Bradley really didn't see that Malik Willis running game coming did He was like totally caught Aba.

He never changes. He does the same thing every snap, every game and never waivers. It's wild.

And Todd. I had an audio note from I should have told you this before the podcast. It was asked that if you feel a sneeze or a cough coming on, to try to sneeze away from your microphone. That was the note I got from last week. So it just happened. So it just reminded me of that. See Todd does this thing now when it's against him, then he keeps silent and so it acts like I'm thee instead of just going with it. I hate when he does that.

Th the street crossing the road.

Did you all see the C. J. Stroud Caleb Williams interaction for the game?

What is that?

What did we think about that? Adam? What did you say?

I didn't like it from Caleb Williams. It looked he was very dismissive. I thought it was, Uh, it was rude. Stroud went out of his way for for people that didn't see it. Hey man, you can't take those hits. You're gonna be a great player, but just be careful. It was very I guess if you're Caleb Williams, you're not in the mood after lost to hear some counseling. But Stroud his heart was in the right place. He's trying to help them, and Caleb Williams was very dismissive.

Has Stroud done enoughing been in the league long enough to be in that position doing that exactly?

By my question? That's my question. It was one of the times, but pretty much people were pretty much split down the middle on this, and I think both guys were a little off right, Like I think I agree with you if you're is that, if that's what you're insinuating Adam, which is c J. Stroud as great as he is, and he is great, and he's probably top five, but you still have only been in the league for one year? Do you do you? Is it still your place?

I totally, but this is not the first time from Caleb. We've seen some weird body language antics in similar there's something, Yeah, I don't know something. It's just I thought. He was like, but I agree with media, I don't know what?

What?

What? What do you think it is?

It?

Is it? You know? Because some people, a lot of people go as far as it's the painted fingernails. Some people go to remember that US game where he cried on his mom's shoulder that bothers them about him the prepants. He has not worn the prepants to our knowledge, he has not worth the prepands yet, so it's always game.

Press are calling those joggers now they thought from what I understand.

Look, you could call it whatever you want. But if you're the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins go to TJ Max and get regular sweatpants.

He's got his thing going on there. It's not too bad, not too bad.

But do you agree with me that that it's one of those things where if they're all of a sudden bad let's just say they go one in five, that all the NFL neanderthal types are will be quick to turn on him because of the nerdiness.

Why if already could be just in the draft, yeah, well and well yeah, go ahead, Well sorry.

They already have the tweets in the drafts just waiting to hit send when they go one and four, one five, they've already typed out.

They just hit this.

But it's like a bet in the bet slip. They're just ready to bunch on it.

Yeah, And part of this could be that we're all just getting a little bit older and we're detached from younger guys coming into the league and how things are different. I played golf a few weeks ago with a kid that was seventeen, and it was like we were from different planets.

And oh, I'm not saying there. And I agree with you about that. But I'm not saying I'm bothered, but I'm just saying the NFL ultra machismo type.

Oh yeah, it's got to be the most uncomfortable thing ever. Especially I think it could even be worse if he turns out to be really, really good and they have to go ten twenty years more with that. That but that's really going to get.

I'd love it if paid these nails, though, serious question.

If he painted his nails and after the game he's coughing into the microphone, how would you look at him exactly sneezing, coughing anything.

If he hit the annoying two team parlay on that, how would it go? Yeah, all right, Adam, I'm sorry your last one.

I'm I'll go for the I was gonna go with a total, but let's keep it consistent with the sides, and let's go.

You you're allowed to go. You're allowed to go with the total, Adam, Adam, You're totally allowed.

No, I know, but I don't want to go. I don't want to go same game on that. So I'll go Washington plus seven and a half on Monday Night football at Cincinnati. I'll take the points there. That is another rookie quarterback coming in. But I watched the Bengals defense full game Week one, full game Week two. That is a serious problem, and I don't know if it's

Are you in survivor.

Adam still alive?

Yep?

Who are you taking this week? Well we'll get to that because right now you've sent my brain into Fritz mode because I was for me it's a choice between Cleveland and Cincinnati, and now you got me thinking.

I'm and again I'm not advocating that this is Washington going in and beating him up and winning. This just feels like a ten point lead for since he late and Washington gets the easy score, it's a three to four point win. That never felt that.

Club, Dottie, your last.

I'm going to go with a club that we call the fourth down Detroit Lions. Is it minus two and a half?

It is minus two and a half? Yes, two and a half extra juice, So you're getting a little lucky there.

I'm going to take the Lions minus to two and a half.

And the reason let's move on, Let's remember this precedent that we are giving him a two and a half with extra juice that will come up again.

We've given you, We've given you extra juice as many times. Listen, the Detroit Lions. I think, first of all, they moved the ball against Tampa all game. They lost the game. They moved the ball against the Rams, screwed me on my team total in overtime, and especially in that overtime where they just said, okay, now with the passing, we're just gonna hand the ball off. We're gonna push you around.

Todd, you are I like, I like all of your picks, Todd.

Todd wishing like, here's better than mine.

He's not messing around this year, Tod's.

Going three week Oh here really.

At the end rolling in wait, this just did the hand to at the end. The greatest fumbler inside the five yard line this year, and he again another one yard line.

That's why you throw it the running back right, Adam.

Especially short circling back. All right, Well, I.

Wasn't going to have a play in rams forty nine ers, but I was doing the uh the bare bets pod earlier, Jeff Schwartz actually made a pretty good case for the for the under, and I'm gonna I'm gonna use that as my third one here under are we going forty four?

Forty four and a half.

I'm seeing both so many questions forty four forty four Yes, consensus.

Forty four is no Debo, no McCaffrey, Rams with a million offensive line issues, no Cup, no Nikua. I think the forty nine ers probably just are happy to run the ball. We know all the stats with Debo off the field as opposed to on the field. Now, some of that coincides with Trent Williams, who's a big factor in the production for the forty nine ers offense as well. But I just think both teams missing a lot of weapons,

Todd, I should have piped up when you had the Jaguars pick, but we're aligned on that one. A lot of this is pre flop conviction for me. I don't think the Bills are ultimately that good of a football team. As Todd pointed out, should have lost to Arizona. Marvin Harrison Junior was wide open, Kyler didn't see him after

You can tease them up to eleven. Two. You could tease them up to eleven, which is.

A speaking of speaking of teasers, Adam, your favorite two leg six point teaser of the week is.

This is my least favorite part of the show every time I come on. The unfortunate part with all of this that I've just made the case for Washington, and I mean, I know Cincinnati is going to be very pop leg. I don't want to touch Arizona. And a teaser with a high total, I will tease up Minnesota, which I hate, with Chicago, which I like.

Okay, so Minnesota plus a great teaser week from me here Minnesota plus eight, Minnesota plus eight and Chicago plus seven and a half.

I think there are a lot of good Teazer likes this week.

Is the tie ruling on the show? Based on the official stenographer? Is that a tie? The tie ruling on teasers here tis.

Push they ties ties wait ties push here we give them, we give them a tie. Yeah.

Yeah, if you get if you get a tie on one of the legs, it's a push teaser.

Yeah, you throw, You throw it in the dumpster at him, and then we dumpster die for the push and we get the refund. That's how this works. Okay, yeah, Will or Todd, I'm sorry, I forget the order. Todd.

Well can go next.

Go ahead, Will, I'll use the Chargers from plus one and a half to plus seven and a half in a game with a low total VET and the Steelers seem to play nothing but one possession games.

And I'll also use the vikings.

Uh Party said after the game last week he went up to Flores. I'm sure people saw this and said, man, you've got a great scheme. It gave me nightmares. Now you got a young quarterback in Stroud against Flores, so I think Minnesota can keep it close. That's still one of the home fields that matters in that dome. So vikings plus eight chargers plus seven and a half.

Are the chargers actually one and a half right now?

Yep, yep, you can go now they.

Are you can go there. That's great, you can see.

One and a half. I gotta get a different we gotta I see.

I see, I see one across the board.

Seriously, Yeah, bookmaker has one.

I'll take the seven, you know.

Makers seven, I'll take the fine.

I mean, he makes me the bad guy Gilly, but you know he's trying to pull fast.

I mean, we gave you what, we gave you a pick him on the lions. It's like minus three, but it's fine.

No, what is the Do we have a weight gain update on Will? From the last from the last.

Update, he's not funny.

Between minutes forty five and minute one oh three, we picked up about point four of a.

Bound We'll see a look at your arms. We've been working out. Look at your lot at Will's arms. Put your arms up again.

Just like todd says, I'm getting puffy. I'm getting puffy, all right?

What is yours? Toime?

He's a monster, that guy.

Uh.

I'm going to take a a f C North uh teaser and go with the Cincinnata Bengals minus one and a half.

Uh.

You know, I take all of Adam's turn Off's opinions seriously, and I you know, I agree with him that the Bengals defense is bad. I still think at home against a team that doesn't even play defense, they should be able to pull it out minus one and a half. So I'll take Cincinnati there minus one and a half. And I believe Cincinnati is zero and two on the year,

Action, I went Cnati Bengals money line is almost like minus four hundred and so I think when I was saying, I think it's going to be a popular teaser like that's that's a big part of it because you just see that different distribution of spread and money line and that's usually pretty good indication that teaser likes in their strength.

I think everybody will have them. I think you're right, I will have them Cincinnati Minnesota for me, he's Minnesota up through three and the seven against the tech Sans along with the Bengals. Who I Who I getting to? I have narrowed my survivor choices to either the Bengals or the Browns. The break the most. What's that take? The Browns are the most They're the most organic choice. In other words, there is no better place the rest of the year to play the Browns. If you look

I think you should take the Browns.

Adam Okay, So I am a survivor in contest square. I am not good them. I'd never succeed with them, and the strategy stuff is over my head. From what I understand is I look at the card, the Browns are the choice because you're probably not going to use them again most likely. Is that a fair statement?

That is correct? Now?

Yes, if I was just looking to make a pick that would kind of put me away from a possible Browns no show at home with Deshaun Watson and that surprise, and then liking Washington, perhaps that gets competitive, even though I don't think it's in doubt.

To me.

When I was looking at the board trying to figure out what way you would go, the one that stood out to me would be Kansas City. But that's probably upsetting for the typical survivor path that you would take. But if I was playing it, which for the sake of the show, I will from a perspective of like how do you dodge a bunch of disasters this week that could happen, I would go Kansas City.

Keep in mind Kansas City with circa Are you in circa Survivor?

We're playing in We're in Circa We're in like a bunch of them and play a circuit is not a lot of thought behind it, quite frankly.

Yeah, Kansas City is plays on Thanksgiving and Christmas as well, so for non circuitar contestants.

He was, so, then you're stuck in that way, So then you could put me on the spot. Otherwise I would have to stick to Cleveland because but there's what's the Cleveland percentage in most pool is going to be like seventy percent plus or is it divided with no.

I don't think it'll be nearly that high. I think it'll actually be pretty splintered. I think you'll have a good splintering of Cincinnati of Cleveland. And believe it or not, I think despite the Andy Dalton start, I think a lot of people will still take the Raiders, and I do think a lot of people will take the Bucks. And there's a bunch on the Jets tonight. I bet we won't know that.

Thursday is always the least picked, even when it's pretty popular, like relative to Sunday games.

Just the deadline, Well, someone was sending me the sort of percentage of picks that have already been submitted at their particular pools and it is a big splintering between all those teams. So I don't know if that's represented interesting. Yeah.

By the way, one pick that I liked that that didn't make it onto the top three. How is Skyler Thompson going to keep it close in Seattle? I mean, I've watched that guy a number of times get on the field. I don't think he's very good at quarterback.

I don't know. I almost do not touch that. I'm not touching that.

He almost won a playoff game in Buffalo.

No, yeah, years ago, but his numbers were bad. He was like eighteen to forty four mebs. It was a fluky game. There's some defensive scores.

I went and look back at that because I almost almost took the points, because I'm just of a believer that it's more of the system and the players around to h but I just couldn't quite get there.

Dodd, you would take Cleveland? Dodd, you would take Cleveland? Survivor said Will.

Yeah, I would take Cleveland.

Yes, Okay, Final two questions then, yes. Final two questions for each and every megapod since its inception so many years ago. The first is which of the big favorites. Do you believe is the most likely to lose outright? And there's a bunch of choices here. Jets tonight, six point favorites at home against the Patriots, that's choice number one. Brown six and a half point favorites at home against the Giants, Bucks six and a half point favorites at

I wish they spread them out.

Yeah, me too.

I remember remember during COVID they would.

Play like five o'clock in the afternoon Eastern for like some of the Monday night games.

I missed that.

I wish they would kind of do like one super early and won at like seven and that was fun.

But East West games were great. Yeah. Yeah, remember you remember Week one when the Jets played in San Francisco and it's like Monday night football and it's still five pm and bright and sunny up like this doesn't fit. Yeah, you got to move that game back put an earlier one on the East coast. I'm with you.

Didn't we have? Didn't we have like a Steeler's Redskins Thursday.

After Steelers Ravens, Steelers Ravens Wednesday afternoon Steelers Skins.

I remember it was a.

Game and like two pm on a random day as well.

It was great.

We had like a Tuesday it was Washington.

I think Steelers were undefeated and that was their first loss.

That was a Monday night game, yes, And then there was like a Titans Bills on like a Tuesday at night makeup game. We basically got all the days cover. Then there was a Steelers Ravens Wednesday afternoon.

I knew there was a s Ravens.

The Tuesday night wasn't That Tuesday night game was the Cross Wins game makeup game the Buffalo.

I don't think so.

I think that was the game.

Every game was st armed as somebody like knocked him out. It was Josh, Yeah, that was I missed that.

Ah Covid like wistfully Covid.

Patriots go ahead at him?

Well, I see which way you're going. I'll say the team that's a bigger favorite most likely to lose this week is San Francisco.

Yeah. I like that choice.

Todd the pat Pats to beat the Jets.

I'm with you. I'm gonna say Jets to lose to the Pats. Willy, I don't.

Trust the Jets either, I'll say Patriots.

Okay, wow, Wow, that's just direct assault on Adam shirt Off is what?

That was?

Just a three multi That.

Isn't it crazy? How the perception that this team has changed despite I honestly, if we went back to September first, nineteen days ago, and we went around the table and we said, what is the biggest concern with the Jets Aaron Rodgers and his health, that's like the unanimous, without question, everyone on the Jets was, yeah, but Aaron Rodgers forty health,

Do not include me in that because I know people on the radio set are sick of me saying this, but I have been. I'm sorry. I've been the one pushing back on the Achilles thing the whole time. I said last year when Aaron Rodgers and all these hack doctors on Twitter were saying he could come back, last year on saying all these people are full of shit,

Was Aaron Rodgers really Aaron Rodgers two years ago? I remember some.

Had a hand injury every no one remembers that.

Wow, I remember a lot of games.

It was an arry or something. At an end of the game he hit.

A helmet that I remember, right, Yeah, I remember some stinker use by Aaron Rodgers the year before. But okay, stink a rouge.

Okay, last question, then, if we lived in a Bizarro world and we were forced to bet a side in each and every one of these games, but you got one free pass one game where you're like, I am not even betting that with Toddy's money, Adam, what would that game.

Be the easiest answer to the show Ravens Cowboys.

Ravens Cowboys as dictated as as reflected by the spread itself.

Willie, Yeah, that's a good one, but I'll go Panthers Raiders. I don't know if it was all Bryce Young, or if it's the team around him and we'll see this bump with Dalton or the team is just that bad. I can't get a feeling for that. I'm in no hurry to lay five with the Raiders. I'm certainly in no hurry to bet the Panthers again. Like ever so, Panthers Panthers are Raiders for me, as as someone who

Like?

Yep?

He's great. We don't need to see any more from him, Like Canalos has something to do with that, I think right brace Young didn't get forty seven points of the Saints. So anyway, you see that.

On Twitter they had a Chase Daniel. I think it was Chase Daniel on Twitter. I'm not positive, but it was some I think it was Chase Daniel has a Twitter feed where he went through about fifteen reads by Bryce Young and he shows you, like what the routes are, he shows you what the zone is. He goes back and forth and shows you, Okay, here's where he should have thrown it, here's what he did wrong and everything, and he's like butchering him death. He goes, I don't

It's gonna get me a lot of you, so I'm gonna do it.

I'm with you, Adam, Adam, I'm with you. I'm just saying the point is, you watch that thing and you're just like, you feel like you're in the quarterback room. I like saying, the quarterback room. You know, actually the dumbest I've ever heard of the quarterback room. And you're watching and you're saying, okay, well, here's where he's supposed to go against the two high safeties, and he threw it to the wrong guy here, and here's what he's

What's the rest of his career?

Look like somebody tray a fourth round re form at some point this year offseason and he gets another chance to start, or he just fades into oblivion, because my guess is the former. Just because these coaches have egos, they say he was the first pick. I can fix him, put him in my city. I don't know, he'll get a chance. Yeah, yeah, he'll get a chance. I don't know if it leads to anything.

That by the way, that we don't say this enough about football, right, you know, Baseball seaball, hit ball basketball, put this, you know, orange sphere into this orange cylinder. But that's the beauty of football, right, the fact that quarterbacks have to have that moment, whether it's holding a clipboard for years, whatever it takes. Some people will get it way quicker than others, the moment where it just clicks for them right where they see the field and

But the coaches and the quarterbacks earlier and how they're attaching themselves to success in the job. I've seen other opinions on where the nil deals in college are forcing teams to become more player dependent than system dependent. And so you have these these quarterbacks that go to college, get paid a bunch, and the plays are made for them to generate whatever notoriety for the college rather than

Though, I would argue because if that's true, Adam, and I think that is true, right, I think that's an interesting point. I would argue, then that shows more of a coaching fit than it does a quarterbackacking deficiency, because I believe and again let me reference the great Joe Gibbs again, his ability to tailor x's and o's around personnel, no matter of the personnel. Right, Oh, we have John Riggins, We're now going to be run heavy run a jumbo

I think, yeah, it's It's an interesting point too, and that's you get guys like Andy Reid who typically young guys outside of quarterback and homes have always taken the year or two to click in that offense, and now

It's right, lots changed, right, And to your point, that's why I believe that Jordan Love was actually going to be good when most didn't because he got to youse, got to be in the same system for multiple years holding a clipboard with a Hall of Fame quarterback in the same system, And I related it back to just my purview from the Skins point of view, the reason Stan Humphries and Mark Rippin and Trent Green be came great or not greatly very good quarter and Barry Lamar

Yeah, Barry Bonds had Andy Vance liked to take him under his wing. I actually I disagree a little bit with this.

I think Aaron Shots, I don't know if we're going to have him on on this podcast.

He's done some pretty detailed.

Research on sitting versus not sitting, and he's his conclusions have been very much that it's anybody's guest.

There's no one way to do it. First, you know, a right way versus a wrong way to do it.

Speaking of film study, I don't know if you guys have seen these grooding clips where he's breaking down film. They are equal parts entertaining and disturbing. I don't know where I fall between them, but they are very bizarre. I sent you some of them last night. They are odd, aren't grooding? Yeah? That, yeah, I'll send. He's like rapping and he's dancing to these rap songs. It's very strange.

He's breaking down football film and then he'll randomly like the one that will send. He's talking about Joe Mason. I don't like what Joe mix and Joe mixing, just like I don't like cheeseburgers. I love cheese, and like he'll throw in a rap song. It's not it's nicely. I know they like he'll play it like a hip hop song or something.

So my immediate presentation work to beep up and reach your broader audience.

Let's be a lesson to us all, Adam that we need to.

I have one last QB point to wrap up to your point of Aaron Schott saying like the start or sit hard not to look back at one of the best AFC quarterbacks of all time, and Mark Sanchez gets to the Jets playoffs playoffs nothing since and we've gone through a few quarterbacks there, so yeah, just saying legendary AFC quarterback.

Not that anyone cares, but two of us haven't given our game that we want no part of. And the game that I want no part of would be if I could just call it the games I want absolutely no part of that Detroit Arizona game. Actually, you know what, Miami Seattle, Miami Seattle. I would say, there's a few of those this week where I'm like, yeah, I don't know what I'm seeing.

I'm gonna go because you're right, I think the Ravens game against the Cowboys. Who are these teams? What is

They're a bully. They're a bully, right, They beat all the teams that are clearly less talented them and then someone there picks on them. That's their own size. They were bully last year too. The Dolphins were bully last year, but now it too is out. So you can't even say that about that. What was your lying about them, Todd? They can't stand prosperity cowboys?

You can't. Yeah, as soon as by the way, as soon as that game started, I said to myself, oh my gosh, here we go. Typical cowboys are the killers and now it's going to be like eight million to nothing against the coup.

Let me let me just end with this, Adam, what is your what is your most off general market consensus viewpoint at this point, either to the good or the bad, Like you don't think the Saints are for real? I don't know what. I just leave it open open ended for you.

Well, I did Cowherd this summer, and my face is attached to the Carolina Panthers success and so it's been a My DF has been ugly for the last weeks. Yeah, so I'm certainly tied to Andy Dalton turning things around there in Carolina. So that would be one that's to the bad but hopefully turns out good. If I'm going the other way, I would say so far being very high on Seattle preseason, which nobody really wants to bring up again, unfortunately, would be the one that's been so

Our coach of the year. Bets looked pretty good after two weeks. Anyway, with Mike McDonald, what number did you get him on this?

He runs a Burger franchise and plays great defense. That's that's impressive.

It's it's always a pregnant pause when you have to distinguish on air between Mike McDaniel, Mike McDonald, Michael McDonald, the artist. And there was one more I can't remember. There's like four of them, the.

Worst yet last week when I was doing the previews, it was Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Raiders, Ravens, McDaniel McDonald in three consecutive games in rotation, and I just butchering all of them.

Oh yeah, it's Mike McDaniel, Mike McDonald, Michael McDonald. I think the other one was Josh McDaniels. Right, was another one?

Yes?

With brutal all.

Right, gentlemen, Adam the simple, the simple handicap The Simple Handicap is that the name you a simple Handicap Monday through Friday, and it's about what ten to fifteen minutes each you do them real quick, right.

Yeah, it's it's trending fifteen to twenty Apple Spotify YouTube every morning gets you ready on what you need to know for the day for NFL betting, and so that's airing every morning five am Eastern, two am Pacific.

And what is your jurisdiction at Right Angle Sports? What do you handle there?

All things NFL, mostly service facing and media, but we do a lot of betting and handicapping behind the scenes that doesn't get shown up. So everything relating to the NFL is is what I'm involved with.

Beautiful And how did Coward? I didn't know that you were on Collin Coward? How did how did you? How did he find out about you? How did he get your his attention? How did you get his attention?

I've known Jason McIntyre for a while, but there was Colin has the volume and it was a couple of years ago while I was still at Covers. There was very close to doing something with them and getting involved with that network. They elected to go with Shannon Sharp instead of me, I was told, which makes a lot of sense and certainly is probably paying off for them

Or so good for you. I would have liked to have seen you done interviews with Kat Williams, though, if I'm being honest, I would have liked to ar multi media thing. Is that true?

There are some jokes you could have made there, and I was, yeah, there was there were some Shannon Sharp jokes to be.

Made, but yes there were others to be made. Adam chirt off everybody and on Twitter you are at Adam chirtoff c h E r f F. Check it out there for Adam, for Toddy, thank you, Toddy, thank you. Will will Hills should have been more podcasts as well, and Todd and I we're not doing our halftimes at Tish. But we're not going to do halftimes, right, is that what we've determined.

I mean, it's just we have we have issues that's the only problem. I don't mind doing them. It's just the problems that we talked about. But maybe we the way Wills Wills Will's new podcast. Will's new podcast, put Down the Burger. That's his new podcast.

Well, I guess We'll deserves it after the couple the double funk.

He didn't go after me very hard last last podcast. Let's be honest, Okay, he was the guy was on site kicking without even declaring. He wasn't even declaring on side kicking.

You gotta say for Will to.

Win more than I am the guest chair here this week, just to get some revenge on that.

It really is, uh you all with all your Week three bets in the National Football League.

Thanks for I was kidding, It's it's real. His real podcast should have ate more. My fault.