Check it down Man. Thursday morning, January second, twenty twenty four is the Beating the Book podcast megapod for Week eighteen in that Ashes Football League, the scoreliest of all weeks in the National Football League. Gail Alexander, thanks for listening. We have a lot on the line here. The twenty twenty four megapod Handicapping Championship with Todd wishnev nursing, caressing, fondling a one and a half game lead over yours, truly doing all kinds of horrible things with his lead.
Todd Wishne from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Ladies and gentlemen, the star of the showtime Docuseriies Action. It's happened to Toddy?
What's up? Gilly howih and will Hill who?
By the way, the reason we're late, the reason we're fifteen minutes late, is because old Prima Donna Willie over here had to do something we like to call the bear bets pod on five not accept unacceptable. What do you have to savor it?
Gilly? What's going on? I apologize to everyone. I apologize to the nation.
I think you should apologize to Dejnate Carrington and Caitlyn Clark today for what you've done. I agree. I agree.
We can in college basketball too, so I don't. Hopefully we don't distract Todd too much in this podcast so we can make his magical though. I guess what you said you had something. It's been a rough, a rough batch of beats.
Right, Toddy, rough bats of beats. Every time I need no overtime, it goes over time. Every time I need no yes overtime, it goes no overtime. So we have the Charleston Southern Buccaneers going up against the Gardener have running bulldogs. I'm sure a soil have at least a first half and maybe some prop bets for us on today's ball game.
Speaking of which, Ladies, Ladies and Gentlemen, one of the folks, along with Marco, one of the two folks upon whom the megapod was built upon whose shoulders it was built, co hosted the show for eight years, eight seasons. I want to say it is you know him by many names, Johnny Vegas, Runner, Ace Ace, ladies and gentleman on the show, Who's at what is It? Wager Talk and does UFC stuff as well. How you doing man, never better?
Brother, Thank you, thank you for having me back on. As you said, we've been doing this for a really long time, Gil, way back before we were even even video was up like podcasts. So thank you, thank you for having me on. And I yeah, it's been a long road, brother, but I'm happy to be here and excited for this weekend.
For sure, we were.
We were just saying all air. We used to do the Vegas Lifestyle Show when when we would go to clubs, that's how young we were at the time. And now we when we.
Would sprinkle, and now it's everywhere, can you Matt. We added a word to the lexicon of sports betting, and we'll never get the credit for that, but when I see it everywhere, I swear, I get happy, Like it doesn't irritate me. At first it did a little, but now I get so happy. Come like, we actually did add that work, that alexicon of sports batting.
We really did.
Yeah, none of that stuff irritates me anymore. But you're right, like at first you're like, hey, wait a minute, that's uh, that was a you said it, And then I would put the E forty sprinkle me man.
Pushing it.
Yeah, yeah, okay. Week eighteen is squarely All kinds of motivations and ways that coaches are handling this from team to team are different. What we know so far is that a lot of playoff implications. Washington is playing players. Seeding matters to them. The Steelers seeding matters to them. They will be playing players anyone who's healthy, that is, as will the Chargers, as will the Green Bay Packers.
We also know that the La Rams, who again I've been saying this on the radio side all week, sometimes we overrate how much seating means these teams and the LA Rams, who you would think would want to avoid being the five excuse me, the four seed would want to avoid hosting the loser of the Lions Vikings Sunday Night showdown instead, Sean Payton and Sean McVay pardon me, is like, we don't really care so much. We're resting everybody. So, which is part of his history, I guess as well.
So that line did beat Crazy, What's that.
They did beat Minnesota and that's part of.
Lost lost in ot to Detroit beat Minnesota. That's part of the thinking perhaps for him as well. He's like, well, it was a matter who we play for the La Rams. We're awesome.
Okay, Well we get into the records.
Before we get into all that.
Update the record, sir, that's where I was going.
Okay, So there's a lot going on here. In the final week of the season, there's only three picks left. Gilly, a good friend of mine, went three and oh with the luckiest commander's cover you could ever imagine. I'm just kidding Gilly. It wasn't that lucky, but it was a little lucky. I'll tell you that. Anyways, he goes ye know, it was pretty lucky. He goes three and oh to move to twenty seven wins, twenty three losses and a tie,
only one and a half games back. First, we'll talk about Willy, who went one and two tried to go directly against me with an over forty four in the Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh Steelers game, which I attended on Christmas Day and kept it under And so Willy goes one and two to go to twenty two twenty seven and two, and I hit a beautiful three and oh to match Gilly and keep my one and a half game lead to go to twenty nine twenty two with the Lions under in the case and then the most
gorgeous of covers, the over forty and a half in the Colts Giants game that was over about I don't know, four minutes into the game, about one point fifteen. You could already catch your tickets. So it's twenty nine and twenty two for me. Now the guest, the guest situation is only a half game back. They're not technically in the running for the for the bragging rights because there's no one to actually brag, but you know, a should
try to do well here today. Guests also went three and oh to go to twenty eight twenty two and one. Great job by Matt Brown. And so there's where we are. The guest a half game back, Gilly a game and a half back, and our friend Dejon a Carrington so far back you can't even see him in the teaser. Will you lost? Because the Colts lost? And so Gilly goes to five eleven and one. I am seven eight and two. I mean Willy is seven eight and two. Who leaves the teasers. It's a nice job by Willy there,
I am seven and ten and teasers. The guest is also seven and ten and teasers, so hopefully we can come up with a teaser win to finish off the season. A lot on the line.
Five and eleven not too good. You remember that's what Spurrier said when the Skins were five and eleven. Someone asked him, think about your five and eleven season. He's like, five and eleven not too good. But I see another tea twelve, so that's something. Step let me finish. Okay, what's next? Todd Dumbo of the Week? Oh, Dumbo over the Week.
I want to do it. I want to do I want to give first of all we have, there's obvious to this week. Obviously, Raheem Morris gets a Lifetime Achievement Award in the Dumbo of the Week. This guy is just unbelievable, and you guys can give us a bunch other I want to go against a certain guy just because Gilly loves him, Dan Quinn, I want to say. And nobody even nobody noticed this, probably or maybe a five people did notice it at the time, but I felt an incredibly dufous thing that he got away with.
At the end of that game, it's twenty four all. After the fourth down pass to pits I believe for the touchdown. They tie it up, and now the Redskins have the ball with one nineteen left at their own thirty. I guess the first thing you got to think of, aside from winning the game is you can't allow the other team to have any time to beat you in regulation. So you might want to think about, you know, grinding this clock down. I mean, one nineteen is a long time,
and he also had time outside. How many timeouts did he have left at that point, I don't remember, but he definitely had some timeouts. The point is you cannot allow out Lanta to get the ball back first and ten sack on Daniels, and it's now fifty nine seconds left for second and ten. And on second and ten, I think you absolutely must not throw it in complete pass.
They throw it incomplete pass, and it's now fifty five seconds left, and now it's third and ten, and now you've got a real big problem because if you throw another incomplete Atlanta's going to get the ball back. That's exactly what happened. I feel like that was extremely lucky that Raheem Morris gacked it right back to him with his stupidity about the timeouts. But I felt that was really really underratedly dumb, because you know, you can't allow it Lanta to get a chance, and he did.
It was a twenty nine second drive. You're absolutely right, and it gave Atlanta the ball back with forty seconds left. So you're right, that's bad. But it's not even top three this week.
Well, of course it's not your No, it's not, it's not. I just wanted to talk about it because I'm sure a lot of other people have talked about all the obvious stupidity.
Talked out about it on a little show called Guessing Lines on Monday. But yeah, I will say this, the Rahee Morris wins, I think because Rahee Morris didn't do it once. Rahee Morris did it. Yes, gave the Skins four points of charity, gave it. Gave the Skins four points of charity at the end of the first half and then at the end of the game in that final drive. Well, first of all, the end of the first half, he had all three timeouts, all three timeouts. They're up fourteen to seven.
They start.
First of all, they let the Skins on fourth down on the punt run the clock down from two thirty something to two minutes. Then on offense, they run plays after the punt at one fifty three, one eighteen left in the game, by the way, still has all three timeouts. Okay, one eighteen still three timeouts. That's a lot of time, but okay, then fifty three seconds, then forty six seconds, and then he does not run the next The Falcons don't run their next play till twenty seconds are left,
and he has all three timeouts. They end up having a kickerfield.
So that was that was from Washington thirty six. Killy, that was from the Washington thirty six. They could have scored a touchdown.
Oh yeah, absolutely, And then and obviously at the end of regulation when it was twenty four to twenty four, after that sequence that Todd was just talking about, they started their own nineteen with forty seconds left. They have two timeouts, and they immediately go Pennix to Mooney for
twenty five. Morris does not use one of his two timeouts, so when a Penix then throws the incompletion on the next pass, there's only twelve seconds left left at their own forty four, then seven seconds left on the next incompleation. They finally use one with the stopped clock there, and then they get the PI call on Michael Davis, so it sets up a Riley Patterson game winning field goal, but from fifty six yards which goes way short. That is I mean, I'm what's the line from Anchorman? Not
Anchorman was an ancher Man. Yeah, I'm not even mad at you, backster Y, you ate the whole wheel of cheese. That's incredible.
Because they were probably gonna beat Carolina this week, and that's it. They're gonna win the division this Uh that swings a division championship. And uh, we do have to mention Zach Taylor too, who could have just taken these kicked a twenty one yard field goal straight on with about ten or fifteen seconds left and taking a three point lead. Instead, he's got to run a play risk, a holding risk, and injury to get from the three
to the one. Guess what Chase Brown gets hurt? Denver is able to save a timeout, and then what are we gonna do. We can't burn all the clock. Let's score a touchdown, give up a touchdown now we're in overtime. Just a disaster there, absolutely disaster from Zach Taylor, that was.
A hold my beer one because then Sean Payton didn't go for two to win the game, right, he kicked an extra point of course overtime, which because what you really want to do is play an overtime against Joe Burrow.
But a time as good as a win in the only Yeah, that's one. That one's at least debatable, where hey, a TI is as good as a win. I'm gonna get the ball back if I can get a stop and run out the clock, I get a time in the playoffs. The not taking a NY is just absolutely is just incorrect. The other one is at least debatable.
Well, and I want to say this about the Zach Taylor to think, because you get the Lombardes of the world, and then everybody who like mimics what he says because you want he has it in for Zach Taylor, You're right about that moment. He just should have kneeled it. The correct play, the plus ev play, the most optimal play was kneel it, kick the field goal. They get the ball back with ten seconds twelve seconds left in
the game. But I think people got the next part wrong general, which is once they decided to run the ball, and shit happens when you run the ball right. And what happens was, first of all, Chase Brown got bottled up and he bounced off the bottle up, went three more yards and got hurt. So you couldn't have anticipated an injury, but an injury happened. One almost got.
Dragged into the end zone. He almost got dragged into the en zone there he came very close to scoring.
That's right. But the part that I think people got wrong in general was that next part, because a lot of people were giving them shit for then score in the touchdown, which I don't think is correct because at that point, you're, yeah, at that point, your choice was we go up seven with about one thirty left or whatever it was, or well, i'll give you the exact uh, because I want to I don't want to get it wrong. The choice at that moment was, uh.
You let's seven, verse up three.
It's you either go up seven with one twenty nine left or three with forty five seconds to go. So I actually think the seven was the right play at that point once you once you fucked up the first point. Yes, so anygreed nott any in game before we get to.
This I just wanted instead of doing an in game this week, because I didn't really have any in gaming you know, stuff, except for being an idiot and betting against Trubisky to get a touchdown and McKee to get a touchdown when they were both teams were up by a thousand. We've got a new thing now in the NFL. We try to score on third and fourteen screen passes when we're winning by a million. Okay, I think I'm
done with that whole angle. I just wanted to talk about a little prop that I thought was interesting that that hit Taja Spears was going to play instead of Pollard for the for the Titans this week. And the Titans, if you looked at their game log, Pollard was getting a billion yards in any game that was close. In all the games that weren't close, he wasn't getting anything because they were behind by a million. They were throwing
all the time. So you had to think that his backup was also going to get a lot of yards because he wasn't going to You know, they're playing did they played this past week with somebody crappy just like them? I forget who they jagged?
Right?
Jacked right? Okay? So you knew the game wasn't going to be a blowout. You're going to get those carries to Spears, and you had Spears at sixty yards and if you if you notice, Pollard always got like eighty ninety one hundred yards in games that were closed. So I thought that was an interesting angle where you could look at something that was kind of hidden in the stats because obviously you're not going to know what Spears is.
But now Spears is Paul, right, And if you look at what Pollard did, you know, what's the difference between Pollard and Spears. But it's not like Barry Sanders and me. It's you know, it's not that different, right, It's about the same, like the most pretty good pasts. Yeah, pretty good, But you know that's only that's on the on the belly play. When I when I played at Army, I was ready.
You're just kind of underrated too, by the way, I think. I like Spears.
Yeah, so I just thought I wouldn't talk about that one just because I thought that was an interesting thing where the stats were kind of hidden on that one. But if you if you knew how to read between the lines, you could you could come up with a winner.
I like it all right, I have it before we get the best bets. I have a procedural question that only applies to week eighteen and me being a game and a half behind you, do we still do the same order where we snake and then you can play game theory and just mimic one of my picks.
I was, I was thinking about this the whole day today, and I thought a fair way to do it would be to write down our picks beforehand, so that way we can't you do any and then it does and.
You text them to me, and I'm the orbit, I don't.
I have them written right here, right here in the corner. I know who they are, but they're written down. You should write that your three down also, and then that way there's no there's no shenanigans now with gil Gill's honorable Todd can be the one that thank You's got.
Paper with different combinations.
Like most things in life, Willy as usual has his passive aggressiveness against me, and that's fine. That's fine. We'll deal with that in a therapy session maybe on Thursday next week, but right now we'll just note it and move on.
Okay, I'm texting them to Willy.
I mean I could text my too, but I have him written down, so it doesn't I mean, if you want me to, I will, well, you text Will.
I don't really trust By the way, then Will's gonna text both of us and each other's picks to.
Text you back right, I can't trust that guy.
All right?
Ace. By the way, where can they find your UFC stuff?
Oh?
I just head on Greek Underscore Gambler, Greek Underscore Gambler at Twitter and of course on Instagram and all that social media stuff. But on the fight if you go to fight Pass, you fcs fight Pass. I got a podcast that I do weekly. I have a show that we do for all the pay per views and a couple of big fight nights, and I also do the Contender series each and every year for them. So I got about three shows right now on their streaming network.
If you're on fight Pass, you could check those out for sure.
I'm telling you every every once in a while, I go into the sportsbook and you're like plastered big on one of the screens. I'm like, look to see.
I had the best year with MMA ever ever ever, But I had to losing your betting. Yeah, I had to in the last ten years. I've documented since twenty fifteen with me and you had that launch, and I'm coming off the second negative year selling picks over that span. But my best year in MMA, if you can believe that, had the best year ever in MMA. But baseball killed me. College football we didn't win, didn't win an NFL this year, So it's been bad in other sports. But MMA has
been really good to me. So looking forward to twenty twenty five and a big rebound.
Yeah, NFL like our records, like Todd's record for being in first place.
I'm impressed though, is a pretty big.
Achievement because this has been a rough year.
Guilt, it's been the outlier year. Not this small to show down or interrupt you. It's been an outlier year everywhere as far as favorites. Favorites over seventy percent hitting me in the UFC. That's much higher than their average
as far as the favorites go. Because it's actually third in major sports in underdogs winning outright, I think it's it's Major League Baseball number one, NHL number two, and MMA's number three, and yet over seventy percent of the favorites won this year, and you saw the same thing
in the NFL. I think there was a week that you're going I mean they were talking data that go back twenty twenty five years of results where favorites have not done so well over a span of time, Like since Week fifteen, I saw favorites have never won so much during one particular week, Favorites never won so much. So it's been an outlier year. The fact if you're profitable this year in NFL as a sharp beetter who only looks for plus ev bets, it's impressive.
Man.
I'm impressed that you guys are positive.
Really yeah. By the way, and we started the season with all dogs. If you remember, we said our favorite's ever going to win. After the first couple of weeks it was all dogs and then well you.
See it in Survivor, right, the first five weeks was the most carnage ever ninety eight plus percent on in Survivor, and then the last five weeks barely anybody. Evan Abrams from The Athletic used to I think he's been on this podcast before. He used to be at ESPN had that tweet where he said the only favorite since week thirteen of six points or greater to lose out right was the Cults this past week against the Giants, and
then Ben Fox Ben Fox since week thirteen. Since since the same week, I want to say, favorites are like seventy plus percent ats. It's unbelievable.
So it really is.
There you go, there, you go? All right, Ace, you know how this works. I don't have to tell you the Formatt what's your first best bet, sir?
Yeah, I know a lot of people are going to disagree with me here, but I really like the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday. I usually look the fade a team like that when you get a big player expected to be back, like the return of Joey Porter, and how he's going to help that secondary and that defense, especially up against an offense like Cincinnati. Usually usually there's that overreaction and we price these players to be worth more
than they are. But I think in this case against the Cincinnati team, where you have a lot of recency bias, one team's coming in hot, one team's coming in cold, they already played earlier in the year. Cincinnati got the job done. I think Pittsburgh's being extremely overlooked here. I think no home field advantage seems to be factored into this price. I know the line's dropped. I'm not getting as good as the opener, but it was a money
line bet for me from the beginning. I think there's a game Pitur does win at home, so give me the Steelers in this first one. I really liked the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night to shake some things up going in the Sunday by.
The way, Tim Lawson, a Megapod historian, tweet texting in. Since joining the Megapod in twenty twelve as a co host, Ace has only missed one season on the podcast twenty nineteen. He was attendance twenty twelve to twenty eighteen and a perennial guest twenty twenty through the twenty twenty fourth season.
Than I told Pride and perfect attendance. I never missed the Megapod sick or whatever. Even back then, I used to go out every night almost too, so it didn't matter whether straight from going out. Megapod never missed rather perfect attendance.
Do you remember when when Marco's we were on skyp in those days when Marco used to drop out and used to say and used to go on this rimp Marco was getting some.
Yep, going going for a little snack, to the fridge, going to the fridge for a little snack. And I don't want to go off off track real quickly, but I do want to add nothing's changed over the last decade. Well, the hustles are still the same. So if anybody wants to listen to megapod from back then on what to do when you're coming to Vegas, nothing's really changed. The game's the same, don't get trick rolled while you're here, have a good time, and yeah, enjoy.
Vegas kickbacks with the taxi drivers that kind of thing. Okay about the Steelers though, again they play The Steelers play on Saturday. So the Steelers right now inhabit the number five seed in the AFC if Baltimore wins before Baltimore clinches the AFC, North Baltimore is now like we had nineteen point favorite as we came on air here against the Brown so they're obviously expected to do that. But that doesn't mean that Pittsburgh has nothing to play for.
Pittsburgh wants to keep that number five seed so that they get to go to travel and play Houston, the number four seed. Houston right now seeming like they're the team in the worst form of any team headed into the postseason. So that's the incentive for Pittsburgh in there.
And it's the Bengals. It's the Bengals. It's the Bengals. You can't forget. There is that rivalry with Pittsburgh in the Bengals and the Pittsburgh's beating that team for the last five times, and I think they were a dog in half of those games and they won the out right. So I think Pittsburgh shows up on Saturday.
Gil Bengals need to win and have both the Broncos and Dolphins lose for them to make the playoffs. The perennial what's the proverbial team no one wants to face in them? Yeah, Toddy, what's your number one? Dude? With nursing the one and a half game lead.
I'm gonna get down a similar place to where Ace is talking about in the north side of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Akrisher. They call it Akrosher. It used to be called Hinesfield. In that the parking is very expensive.
We all have talked.
About that ad nauseum. But I will say this, it's gonna be cold. It's gotta be cold in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Saturday night. I'm looking at temperature in the teams. That's pretty pretty cold. I'm looking for an under under forty eight. Wait am I seeing? Oh it just popped up to fifty two. I'm going under fifty two. No, I'm just kidding forty eight. I'm going under dine air at actor sure. Last game between these two teams that went way over. No, I know all about the Bengals,
great offense, bad defense. They're ten and six to the over there, the overteam, very big overteam, horbone defense. Give up a million, score a million.
However, it's gonna be seventeen degrees out. Try throwing the ball Diner to Chase whoever or whatever the hell Higgins, whatever the guy you got over there.
I don't care who they're throwing to. You got four thousand people down there you're trying to throw the ball to. You're gonna have a hard time. It's only seventeen degrees at at Okay, not in act, it's seventeen degrees that it's freezing down time. North side will be even colder. It's gonna be tough to throw the football. I'm thinking under I'm thinking the Pittsburgh Stillers are gonna line up
and say, it's cold, We're a cold weather team. We're gonna run the goddamn football and we're gonna win this goddamn game twenty four to seventeen under forty eight in the freezing cold.
And I hope you have an oxygen take Andy, you can all right? Did I by the way, to be cool? I think I think they came up. I think they came up.
By the way.
We were talking about this morning on radio DraftKings, speaking of like it used to be with Week eighteen or the last week when it was Week seventeen, Week sixteen before that used to have a lot of correlated parlay opportunities. But the NFL the last few years is sort of legislated that out by and large by really scheduling Week eighteen the final week properly where they try to get as many of the games that are the seedings that are dependent on other games in the same time windows.
So they've done the best they could here and it sort of minimizes the amount of correlated opportunity, correlated parlay opportunities we have, But you do have a Bengals Chargers possibility, right if the Bengals beat the Steelers and the Chargers of this number six seed are incentivized to crush the Raiders on Sunday. Unversely, there's a Steelers Raiders one where if the Steelers win, then the Chargers aren't incentivized. Maybe you want to play the Raiders on Sunday. So that
does exist. DraftKings is letting you parlay the Bengals Chargers but not the Steelers Raider. Interesting?
Wow, allowed one without the other?
I don't either.
Very interesting all right?
So I will know Todd based on that result. If I am one or two games behind you heading into sun I like it, Willie, I am way.
Ravens Browns eighteen.
Todd at t wishnev. Will it not be? Will Hill? What do we have?
I have eighteen for the Baltimore Ravens versus San Jose State.
It's a lot of points, but it's not enough points. I don't know how the Browns score, whether it's dtr who's not an NFL quarterback, or Bailey Zappi. The Ravens are off a mini by they haven't played since Christmas, they're home, they're playing to win a division. The defense has played a lot better the past few weeks, and I regretted not picking them against the Giants when it was a similar spread a few weeks ago. The Ravens
are a bullie. They kill all these bad teams. I heard Aaron Shots on his podcast say he has the Ravens as the sixth best team ever according to his DVOA. So I know, Gil, you've mentioned, Hey, they're the best team in the league according to your power rankings for quite some time. I think this has you know, thirty three written all over. And of course you worry Ravens pull their guys or a back door score. But I don't really worry about a backdoor score with these quarterbacks
for Cleveland. I think Baltimore roles I will lay the eighteen year.
Model. Wait a minute, does he haven't well, hold on, does he have them as the sixth best team or the six best offensive all?
I believe he has them as the sixth best team of all time.
Really, because last year's Ravens he definitely had as a top ten orble And.
He went on to say maybe he has some bias in his numbers towards the raven because he doesn't understand why the Ravens keep popping up so high. But his numbers are his numbers, and I'll go back and double check. And I'm actually gonna have him on my podcast later. He has the Ravens. I believe it's sixth best team of all time according to the DVA.
I'm going to respectfully disagree there, Will, respectfully, I'm going to disagree. Okay, the sixth best team of all time, the Baltimore Rimn Come on stop it. Will.
Will is the host of the UH Perhaps if I had to do it all over again, I would have wagered an entirely higher amount of money podcast and now I have deep regrets. I believe that's the name. And I told him, I was like, you should just call it, should have bet more. And Will's like, great, that's team.
In the NFL all time. Give me a break.
I have had him number one power right. I don't know what to call him six best all time, but number one Power Rank this year.
This year I stier Rank. I'm just relaying the message from our good friend and great guest of this podcast, Aaron Shotts. So if you have something mean to say what you say to his piece. Yeah, he loves your humor.
I like all guests, I like everybody. I'm not against anybody. But that's ridiculous.
All right, I get two number one. Baby, Here's where I take it. I am taking the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs plus the points. I'm taking the Kansas City Chiefs, which is now what is it now? Todd? I'm seeing ten and a half? What do you have to have? Any elevens out there? And I get an eleven?
Ten and a half?
All right?
Can I just I think I'm the only one that knows this, So I'm just gonna reveal this. The number is not gonna matter because this is a match.
This is a match. Oh okay, match between me and you, Oh match between.
Me between you and Todd.
It did hitt e eleven real quickly at hitte eleven earlier.
It now means let me do the math for you, folks. If you're Raheem Morris out there and you're struggling with the math, I'll tell you this. If me and Gilly are both on Kansas City, which we are, and we did not set it up. We emailed Willie ahead of time that means there's only two games left for Gilly to beat me. He has to go too, and all I have to go and two. Otherwise it's all over bouts, it's over calling off.
This is a brutal development. Please tell me that we don't match on a second one?
Correct?
Oh, thing.
Still alive.
I'm on the Chiefs, Todkinschiman as well.
I get it.
It's not Patrick Mahomes, it's Carson Wentz. But good god, how many points are the Broncos laying? And I get the Broncos win, they're in. But I'll take the Kansas City Chiefs plus ten and a half against anybody with Carson Wentz just because it's ten and a half points. It's a very simple handicap. I get it. They have nothing to play for. Andy Reid sits his most important players in these situations. But I'll happily endure a sixty minute football game with the Chiefs if you're giving me
ten and a half. Broncos aren't that spectacular. They can roll teams at will, it's not like they're a juggernaut. So Chiefs plus ten and a half that's the play. And I am really angry, really angry.
Oh, I'm glad you said text the pigs to Willy that way.
I can't even be accused of anything. This is fantastic, brutal.
Well, I'm glad let's put this on. I'm glad I got it out first, so now I know heading forward?
All right?
Oh, I get a second one, which I know Todd doesn't have because Will says we didn't match. I'm on the Houston Texas, the Houston Texans, who are what are they getting a point at a point and a half or what are they getting or I think I guess this line would be Texans minus three. I get that they have nothing to play for. They're locked into the number four seed. But Kelly on Monday morning told me that when we were doing guessing lines, the Titans at that time were favored by four and a half point
and a half. And my immediate reaction was what because the Titans are not incentivized to win. The Titans right now are in the number two position in the upcoming NFL draft, so their management can manipulate this if they wanted to. They wanted to and not try to win this game with the roster constructor or who they're playing, I should say this week, so they shouldn't be favored by four and a half, just on principle. I didn't make the bet during the show, and like an hour
later after the show, Kelly texts me. He's like, oh, it's a pick them all right now. I'm like, ah, let me make the bet. I think Houston as the worst team right now in current form going into the postseason. They need to play a good football game before they get to the playoffs, so I think they're actually going to put in a good effort here. So I like Houston over Will's favorite team, the Tennessee Titans. By the way, the only thing Will likes better than the Ravens being
favored by nineteen is if the Titans were. If the Titans were favorite by nineteen, then he'd be all over that. Texans my number two.
Thank god, but you said the only thing Will likes more. I wasn't sure where you were going. I'm glad you kept it appropriate and we can.
Move on because we're live on Twitter.
He claims to love poon tang. I'm not sure, but he claims.
To Will, you're up.
I agree with this pick. I hate to fade the Titans because they've been just so good this year, two and fourteen against the spread. My goodness, there should be a thirty for thirty about this team. But I agree with just about everything he said. Texans need to at least play their guys, I would think for a quarter or a half to somewhat feel good about themselves. Do the Titans really want to win this game and spoil a chance at the first pick or the second pick?
I will I will go with the Texans here, Doddie.
Let's find out how you're gonna lose it.
Oh Shu, I shouldn't give him a CAC plus ten and a half and wait till, wait, till the last pick for the drama. I think we should do the drama. I'm gonna go Kansas City plus ten and a half for much of the same reasons. My good friend Gilly, who, by the way, I'll mention, only has two picks left to beat me his game A half mine, Uh, ten and a half is just too many points. I mean,
give me a freaking break. Carson Wentz is gonna want to go out there and try to remember Carson Wentz has that great play where he just throws it up deep and they get a pass interference every time. When he was on the Colts, he could probably go.
Down to the Super Bowl.
Yeah, I mean he could do that. It's Andy Reid too. I mean, give me a break. Ten and a half point. It's bow Knicks. I mean, enough of this boat. Oh bow Nicks. He's amazing, He's Jaylen Daniels. He's not. He's still bow Next, let's relax a bit, okay, And Kansas City's got a great th Kansas City plus ten and a half. I'm with Gilly on that one, mister Ace.
I'm going to take the j e Ts New York Jets. The lines moved against me, but I don't meet Mander too much because the best I could have got was two two and a half anyway. And again it's another spot where I do like the money line. And it comes down to the narrative around the Jets of how that locker room is in turmoil. That's obvious. Everybody knew that. There's no surprise there. What sticks out to me most
is the Tua angle here and Hontley at quarterback. He's coming off a great performance where I believe he completed like twenty two of twenty six passes he had one hundred and fifteen passer rating. If you look over his career, his last four or five years, I think only once has over a season been hired, and in the seventies. So a regression is expected from last week. I mean, it doesn't mean it's going to happen automatically, but I
just think he played better than expected. I think he should come down a little bit, back down to earth. I also like the fact that Miami on the road played so much better at home than they have on the road this year. That's reflected in the record cold weather we're in January in New York. There's just a lot that sticks out on this Jets side. The more and more I look at it again, it's an ugly team, and I know the bettingston gets some being betting them
each and every week without too much success. But I do think this is a spot for them at home where they can beat this Miami team traveling coming off those back to back wins. Again, I think more recency bias. I look for that where the Jets are coming off some losses. They gave up forty points last week, but I think their defense is better than that. And you have a Miami offense that is bottom you know, ten twelve in the NFL without two, which hasn't been confirmed.
I think the Jets stay in this game. I like the Jets to get the w at home.
Maybe the most amazing thing about layoff scenarios this week is if the Dolphins win and the Broncos lose, the Dolphins.
Compute, the Dolphins could playing in the playoffs. I don't know. I've just meantally written them off like three or four different times. Yeah, I totally agree.
I don't even think about them, and yet they are at.
Even if they make the playoffs, they might not allow them play the game. They might just say, you know what, I know you qualified, but you know what, you're stay at home. We're just gonna, you know, vacate the spot or something. You can't go in.
Cincinnati needs the Dolphins to lose. In addition to the brin Miami is actually ahead of the line of Cincinnati. Who everybody, Maybe we should warn.
People that they don't just bet on this? Who needs this? Who doesn't need that? Like me and Gilly are taking Kansas City plus ten and a half because we've watched Week eighteen about twenty years in a row. And it never goes down. There's no free money, folks, There's no free money in the world. And there's and a corollary to that is there's no free money in the National
Football League. So if you're standing in the book and somebody says, oh, well, this team needs it, this team doesn't need it, but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Very often the opposite happens. I can remember multiple times Tomlin rested everybody and had like third stringer guys in and they were like getting a billion points and they won the game. Out Right. It happens all the time. So don't go too over your skis with that.
One addition to that, I was just say quickly, you can't rest everybody. It's not like a college team. We have ninety guys on the team. Okay, how you get your quarterback and you know, a couple of key offensive lineman, a couple of ski guys, maybe your best defensive player, a couple couple of skill guys. You don't have. I mean, there's fifty what fifty three guys on a football team. Just to the math. You can't rest them all, Like you got to play somebody that.
Matters and as doctor Bob says, if you're in a must win situation, you must not be that good.
Yeah, I love great point, great point yep.
Oh yeah, it's aces turn again for his third once again.
Yet, Yes, I love this board. I know I say it a lot, but I think this last week board, especially with the way these lines have moved, there's just too much sticking out at me. Wanted to point out real fast. I was going to jump on the Saints that got hit at fourteen. I don't have fourteen anymore, so I'm not going to use it just for that reason, because I think you will be able to get fourteen when we approach the weekend. Now it's down to thirteen
and a half. All that talk with the win and you win the NFC South, with the bucks you're paying for that, and what happened in New Orleans, I think we will get an effort from that team on Sunday. Instead, I'm going to go with the over in that Chiefs Broncos game. I'll go over forty. I don't know if it's thirty nine's or still out there. I'll go over forty, no problem at all. It's at forty, that's no problem. That's no problem at all. Obviously, the talk is the
Broncos need to win for the playoff shot. That's why they're double digit favorites. And all the talk about the starters are not going to play even some of the backups. Is the rumors like they're gonna sit some backups or something, and like, we'll touch on you. How can you sit everybody? You just can't do that. You don't have enough players to do that. I like the fact that we're looking at two of the top five defenses more or less
in the NFL. I talk about that a lot. I think it's the perfect storm for an over because usually there's the overreaction to the defense. Is low scoring game, so you're going to have to adjust that total towards that bias. But to go defense, this is a lot of time, force turnovers, force short fields, they're special teams involved. Like, it doesn't automatically give you an under because you got good two good defense. So I have that going for me, and I think I like the Recncy bias of Kansas
City having coming in with a lot of overs. I think for their last five games have gone over. When you look at the head to head matchup between these two teams. They played in November. They only put up thirty points. Last year both games went under the total. But I think we're overreacting because if you look at those numbers, they were forty sevens, they were forty fives. Now we're down to where it open at thirty eight
and a half. So the market has become more efficient as far as this matchup goes and the total, and I think we could take advantage of the over this late in the seasons. Let's go over forty in Casey Denver.
Guest chair trying to win a championship, even though we don't count, it should not be, by the way, ignored.
That brought me up. That brought me to a point that I was going to mention before when we were talking about endgame and Ace he could weigh in on this. I've noticed a lot in college football and in pro football when you get these line games that are very low line games, like for instance, New York Giants last week against the Colts, which I won in the first ten minutes. It was like a forty and a half. And the reason it was a forty and a half was because the Giants were expected to not be able
to move the ball at all. But if you had watched any Colts games, right, you saw the Colts give up like thirty points, a ton of points to Tennessee, you know, in a backdoor situation, and everybody scored on the Colts. So I don't know if you notice this, but if you get points early and you get teams moving the ball in low scoring line games, I like to go over those in games because it means that something's wrong. And as soon as you saw that the
Giants could move the ball, that's forty and half. I got like forty two and a half. But still it's just too low. That game is lined that the Giants can't do anything the whole game. Well, if they drive down the field once or twice, you're like, wait a second, something's wrong here, you know. And I've noticed that in all lot in like Big Ten games where you like UCL against Nebraska or you know, they have these games
that are lying like thirty nine. It's like ridiculous. If teams can move the ball, it's not going that low, you know. So I don't think they have noticed.
If I could chime in, why I love that approach, Todd, is this everybody's looking to do the opposite. What we're looking to do is look for a team that's a ten point favorite that's down a touchdown, or looking for, you know, a dog that's up for us to fade something along those lines, or teams that scored a lot early you're expecting it to slow down in the second half. You're doing the opposite. You're saying, I'm seeing it in
front of my eyes. I see the data also reflect the line was off before the game started, like that was wrong. Based on what is happening in real time, and then you're looking to take an ends, you may get a point worse than what the close was, but it doesn't matter because now the game's not being played like that line reflected. It's being played completely different. So who cares if what the close was. It may look like you're getting two points worse, but are you really
getting two points worse? Probably we not, because that forty clothes should have been forty four anyway if it played out the way it's playing out. So I like that approach, and it makes sense to me.
It's like Charleston Southern, who is an underdog today, but they're up by ten, so they're only wighing six and a half on the on the live wine now up by twelve thirty six twenty four to just almost.
I almost went over sixty five and a half first half, but I backed off because not both teams were in the boss. Only one team was in the bonus.
That's why was the first time and wishing to have history that you chickened out on a bet and it lost. I don't think that's ever happened before.
Does that ever happened?
That's true? Usually when I chicken out on a bet that wins like eighty five percent of the time, it's unbelievable. It's by the way, that eighty five percent number is documented at major places because I call them up and I go, I like this, but I'm not betting it, and then they say, oh, they're party tracked.
By the way. By the way. In a related note, Crypto.
Dodd is the figure is the king of.
I got lucky happening doesn't make it yeah.
Oh yeah, oh yeah, No, I'm definitely the king of that. I'm definitely no. But I was right about that. I was right about the ETFs. We're going to make it easier for people to get into That was a good call. I have to say that. And the fact that I didn't make any money on it and Gilly made a fortune. That's what we're talking about. I pick it, don't make money, and then it wins. Of course, I think we should
have Willy. I think Willy should do his third pick first and then we do like in golf, you know the guy furthest away from the hole, that kind of deal. So Willy, why don't you do your third Billy? Would you agree with that? That's a good way to go.
Like I like it, Well, I am going to go. It's your your podcast. However, whatever you want me to do, I try.
I try to help the less fortunate hosts out there.
Detroit, Detroit, Minnesota. I will take the two and a half with Minnesota. I think, by far the worst unit of the four. I haven't picked Minnesota a lot. I've actually picked against them more than more than I picked on this year. I just think the worst unit of the four by far is the Detroit defense with the two and a half. If one of these teams is down seven to late and they score a touchdown, I think Campbell would probably go for two. So I just think this is a toss up game. I'll take the
two and a half. I think Minnesota's defense is more capable of getting stopped. Detroit's defense has been hideous the last month or so. I mean they already bottom bottom of the league defense since all these injuries started to accumulate. Green Bay carved them up, should have won. Buffalo scored a million points on them, even Chicago had like four hundred yards of offense, and then San Francisco moved well
up and down the field. Minnesota is gonna score a lot of points here, and I'm gonna take Minnesota plus the two and a half.
I retract the shots. Will is not a Homer when it comes to betting.
Sounds like a Homer pick to me. Sounds like a Homer pick to me.
But I will try to track Will.
When I watched the Lions on Monday Night football, I thought to myself, how is this team going to win the Super Bowl? There's no defense whatsoever. I mean, this is unbelievable. You can't win the Super Bowl with a defense like that, can you?
The only possibility would be if they win this game, they get to they get to buy and they get some of these guys healthier, they can lick their wounds, and they can just be two home wins away from a super Bowl. But your point is one I completely agree with. You can't beat this battle defense fifty every half.
I believe it's the highest number of the year. Am I right? I've been saying fifty six and a half.
Bill was close or no, it was Bill's Lions was close, but I think he closed under fifty six and a half. But it was close.
I mean, fifty six is a real thing to go over. I mean, to go over fifty six and a half, that's more than twenty eight one of the halfs and twenty eight that's a crazy number for an NFL game, just so we're saying. But I almost went under. But the reason I didn't take the under was because I was nervous. It would be like, you know, twenty one seven two minutes in and I'd be like, oh no,
I lost this megapod to Gilly. So that Gilly, I think it's your turn to make their third pick, and luckily for you, I didn't match with you, So you have a tiny.
Chance before we do that. Do you think, because I think a lot of people thought what you thought watching that game, Todd about the Detroit defense that how can this team win a Super Bowl? Do you think that whoever gets the number one seed wins and gets to the playoffs gets to the Super Bowl from the NFC? You think if it's Detroit, they still get there, no matter what if they have home field. Same with Minnesota, same with Philly? Or can that only apply to certain
teams in Europe? Because the number one seed, right, the big advantages. You don't have to play a game, and historically the number one seed gets there an inordinate percentage of time, no matter what, who does it. Let's put it this way, who does it mean the most to of those three teams? Well, Philly can't do it anymore, right, so Philly's out. So it's between Minnesota and Detroit. I thought it meant the most of Philly when they were still involved in Does it mean more to Minnesota or to t.
I don't think Minnesota is winning three road games? And it's funny. As big as this game is, you're playing for the division, you're playing for the one seed. Very possible these teams are meeting again in two weeks now. This game is going to determine where. But It's not a given because you might be you know, a game against the Rams is not a layup, A game against Tampa wouldn't be a layup, but it is possible. This
is we're looking at a rematch here. We're talking about a rematch here in the second round of the playoffs.
Drew Dinzik had an interesting point earlier this we're not an interesting point, but his perspective on it, and it kind of matched what I did my power ranks this morning. Kelly and I both did him on a numbers game at VIISIN and I didn't realize I did this until I looked at him today on the show, which is my top three teams are three AFC teams, all the more Kansas City, Buffalo, and then after that it's all
seven NFC team. Oh wow, and so and Drew said earlier in the week, he said, he goes it's his. I asked what's the most outlying opinion? I asked that of you too, Will and his was like, he doesn't think Buffalo's as good as Kansas City in Baltimore, and he thinks anybody can win it in the NFC. Do you believe that anyone Washington, Green Bay?
I don't think Washington can no offense. I think Washington would be the one where I be a man that team got to the super Bowl. That I just think next year is the year where, hey, they're knocking on the door. I think them getting in the playoffs, and like winning a game would get them making the playoffs is an incredible year. Winning a game would just be friend of like, you know, almost like a mid major level Sweet sixteen super Bowl seems like a stretch, would you agree as a Washington fan?
Yes, but offense taken nonetheless?
Okay, yeah, I agree.
I'm deeply offended. Okay, my last play, I'm taking the Rams plus the six and a half. I know Sean McVay is sitting Stafford, he is going to sit Iron Williams, He's going to sit in players. But I didn't anticipate that. By the way, I have a terrible bed in my account.
Rams plus three. I did not anticipate Sean McVay not caring about the seating because again, if they fall to the four, if they lose, Tampa Bay wins, Tampa Bay ends up being a three seed, and then the Rams will have to host the loser of the Lions Vikings in a four or five one wildcard week, But I six and a half. Give me them points. Jimmy Garoppo play for right.
They're not playing for any eliminated Well.
They don't have anything to play for when it comes to a team. But Gino Smith as a boatload of incentives that could earn him up to six million dollars if he hits. Oh so a lot of people are focusing in on that. I choose not to at six and a half. I'm going Jimmy G and Blake Krum to get me to the promised Land plus six and a half. Boys, let's go, by the way, have we seen Jimmy G at all this year? Has there ever been a camera on him all year long? I've not seen one shot of him in a RAMS uniform.
Such a good point. I don't think that will be either. Yeah, if it was one, then it was. If we have seen him, it was like one. See they don't show him a lot, Toddy.
This is the way it all.
Wait, I'm hearing something. Yes, yes, I'm hearing it. Yeah. Seattle Seahawks lead at thirty one twenty two. Rams have the ball ten seconds to play from the Seattle fifteen, hoping to somehow cover it. I don't know why they're not just kicking the field goal here. They probably should, but they decided to go for it. They're gonna give a draw play to corm he's going for the pilon. Oh he didn't make it. He didn't make it, Jim, What do you think did he get there?
No, I don't think he did.
A final score is gonna be thirty one twenty two, Gill, he's going down.
You think they're aware of our showdown here? Jim.
Also time, you gotta give the down in the distance, in the time if you're gonna shoot on my impression first time I did it, I'm gonna be much more. You didn't give the down in the distance or the time how much time left was left.
I gave you the time ten seconds left from the twelve yard line, thirty one twenty two. It didn't matter how much what down it was. There's only one left. Like, they don't have any timeouts left. So Blake Koram was running for the pilot and he either makes or he does. There's no time to get another playoff. They don't have the New Orleans Saints. You know, time are down there to stop the clock.
So they're doing don't understand how seconds left down two scores? I don't know.
You don't know how Todd's brain works. He like has little benchmarks he has to hit, so he's like pylon Jim the road.
To the color guy to ask him what he thought, and Jim clearly thought he didn't hit the pylon. So it's stays thirty one twenty two and Killy goes down. What can we say? All right, Jackie's your last one, my third pick. I'm going out to a place called Tampa Bay, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have this entire season been to me what I would call a severe over team. I will tell you what they're over and under record is this year, but I will tell you this,
eleven and five eleven overs, five hunders. You say, wow, what's that all about? Well, it's pretty simple. Tampa Bay likes to score, and they don't like to stop the other team from scoring. They don't like defense, and they love offense. Now, our boy Baker Mayfield also loves to throw pick sixes in there every once in a while and do something stupid that helps too. Forty four. Now here's the issue. Can the Saints get me enough points
to get the over forty four? That is really the question, because I think that Tampa's gonna get me some points like they always do. I think Tampa's good for thirty one. So can the Saints get me to fourteen points with Spencer Rattler, Jake Ayner and the boys. And it'll just come down to whether or not they can get that backdoor touchdown late to get it to thirty one fourteen, And I think they can do it with this horrible
Tampa Bay defense. Forty four in a Tampa games is just too love By the way, the first time these two teams played, I believe the score is fifty one to twenty seven. The Saints stop them zero times, Baker Mayfield through two pick sixes, and it still was fifty one twenty seven Tampa. So I'm thinking you gotta go over forty four and Tampa. There can't be bad in Tampa, can it. What's the weather like? I didn't even check the weather's let's let's see the weather. The weather in
Tampa that day will probably agree with Howling wins. Wait, no, sixty four degrees and ball me extremely ball me, that's good football Weather. I think we can get over forty four. Give me over forty four for the championship against my good friend Gilly. Now the thing is just do the math at home, folks. If Gilly goes one and one on the non in Kansas City picks, he can't win anyways, So I could back into the title possibly. I mean, do you think he's gonna get Texas plus one and
Rams plus six and a half home? I don't think.
So we have a tweet. Nice thing about doing this on Twitter is we get live tweets of the podcast. This is from Buddhist Man who says there is no doubt in my mind that Todd listened to a Numbers game today and roadblocked Gil with his Kansas City selection.
First on that, I told you. I told you I was talking to Todd before and and Todd goes I've been listening all week. I know what was gonna pick, so I'm gonna I told you he gets out of that.
You guys are better than this, or maybe you're not.
I thought we are better than you're not.
You all know I don't listen to ang except on Fridays when I like the guest lineup. So you all know that wasn't the situation and just cut it out.
Okay, you don't like you don't like Bill Krackenberger and and and Drew Dinsick and uh will.
Really I have nothing to do all day and just be turning on a n G. I mean, I'm a very busy person. I got stuff to do. I got naps to take, I got meal, I got stuff to do. I gotta take a dump everything in a while. I mean, give a guy a break.
This is a truth telling podcast, so just tell the truth. You listen Friday so you can learn from Steve Eick and become a be or better.
Well I prefer rass and doctor Bob over Steve, but.
You know, really nice job check mating him, though very well done.
Well, take your little finger and hit the knit on the on the under.
I like Felika. Actually, I like Felika the most.
Over over Fenzing doctor. By By the way, I'm texting with doctor Bob, Doctor Bob making his a return. Doctor Bob says, I got nothing to talk about. I was like, let's just talk. He goes, Okay, I'll tell you what I think about the semi final.
There you go, doctor Bob.
By the way, how about that non targeting yesterday?
Oh how about the nine to one I gave out on a numbers game and the and the quarterback was like an inch probably crossed the goal line. Then he drops the ball and they gave him you know, they they played it in between and they're like, oh, we'll just call him short.
I was so close.
That was like a five thousand dollars. Wait wait, wait, wait quarterback on New Year's Eve, Demon Williams rushing downs. He had one and then he dove for the goal line for the second one, and the Todd's famous pylon he like dropped it looked like he crossed. We didn't have like a straight down the line. Look at it, and I had a feeling they weren't going to give hi to him because he dropped it. About that was man, that was hush shem and his uh, his finest work there.
Geez, he said, hush shim.
I like that. What are you, Brent Musburger? You're picking the college quarterbacks to get two touchdowns?
Gilly asked me at the end. He goes, do you have any bet you haven't talked about it? And I thought, like, this kid, he's seventeen years old. By the way, true freshman. He's athletic. I saw him. He's like nine ten to one to get two plus rushing touches like that, that's worth the shot. We'll take a shot here, and damn almost got home. That was a tough, one one quick thing. Scataboo pushed off on that touchdown. Clearly it was offensive
past interference. Now, of course they don't pull offensive past in afference. It's not really in the rule book.
Someone brought that up on Twitter. But okay, pass interference is always like the most super subjective thing in the world. Probably did passing right, But targeting has a literal language right associated with it, and we've all watched a billion college football games, and we all know what targeting is. By the way, SVP had had a guy who talked to one of the officials, it's and he said, is
clearly targeting. By the way, the Doug Gottlieb opinion of, oh, it's targeting, but you don't call it at that point in the game is the most brain dead shit I ever heard.
That's about Miami against Cow. Do you remember the Miami Cow game where the cow guy literally had his head torn off his body. His head was hanging off the body, and they didn't call it. Literally was hanging off his body. Who was unbelievable. They didn't call targeting and it cost me to.
What's amazing is they literally happened, and not enough was made of that in the newspapers after that. But I only bring it up to say that. I only bring it up to say that if Auburn, if Bern Auburn doesn't jink that field goal right afterward, let's say he makes it. How I mean, I think the way we would be talking about this today is what the fuck are we watching? Why are we betting on this? This is all rigged shit?
Right?
Like that would be rampant all over the place today and perhaps justifiable, you know, in some degree, to some degree. But thankfully he misses it, and it's like, okay, good, they can all win it on even playing grounding, because I think we dodged a major bullet.
I just think that.
I totally agree.
And if it's fourth, and by the way, if it's fourth and thirteen, regardless of what the what the bad calls were, it's fourth and thirteen, just get off the field. The game's over, you know, Fourth and thirteen.
Come on way too Easyeez? Yeah, has anyone ever thought of just dropping all eleven into coverage on those spots? I don't think like you see sometimes they rush to and drop nine, which, hey, you're probably not gonna get home with two. Anyways, anyone even tried, Like, of all the games we watch, we talked about how many games we watch, how many situations just drop all eleven? Would that just make it impossible or there'd be too many
bodies to like complete a past? I think it's at least worth trying.
This isn't the same thing. But you remember that Chiefs game years and years ago where the defense dropped everybody and then they needed a hail Mary and they went like twenty yards to Tyreek Hill and it basically became this weird game where the defense had to like approach Tyreek Hill at the same time all eleven.
Guys.
That was I still like the one time I remember that happening. You remember that time at all? It was like a totally different thing they did vaguely.
By the way, I want to give a shout out to the Lions for doing the hook and lateral again. I freaking love it. If I never watch another football play again. It's my favorite thing to ever see when they do that hook and lateral thing. And then somebody had they came up on my Twitter feed that the most famous one of all time. Nineteen eighty one. I was at my grandparents' house in Philadelphia. I remember it like was yesterday. Dawn Straw to duch Tony Nathan down
the sidelines, touchdown. It was the Kellen Wins logan, what a great game with that hook and why don't people, why don't these teams do this?
Ever? Unstoppable open.
You throw a six hours pass on a third and fifteen and you do it. Even the Jets did it a couple of years ago with Wayne Forbet or something. I remember, It's like, it works. Why don't they do it?
It's unstoppable Boyse State in that famous Bowl game against Oklahoma hook and ladder and the Statue of Liberty in the same game, and then America.
Well, I'll tell you why they don't do it. It's because the NFL coaches are so conservative and scared that they're going to fumble the ball on the ladder or so they can God forbid we should have a turnover. Yeah, but God forbid, you should score a touchdown.
Also, your dumbasses, Well just think about you just named one of the most famous NFL games of all time, the Chargers and the Dolphins and the Orange Bowl and that you know in the early eighties and that Boise State Oklahoma game. What do they have in common? The hook and lateral, like that's what we most remember them. But Detroit has run it beautifully. And then Travis Kelcey doesn't do the hook in lateral, he just ad libs
in the middle of his reception. He's like, ah, he just throws the ball bag somebody I when it.
Caught lateral back to too. That was another one where it wasn't planning. Remember the sun Nay game in the snow where I forget who he threw it to, but the guy kind of get caught. There was nowhere to go, so he just screwed it. I'll throw it to Allen now and you know, reach for the end zone, which I actually think it shouldn't matter, but that's like a signature MVP MOO. I actually think that goes a long
way into like him being the MVP. We talked about these Heisman moments, which is completely ridiculous, But I actually think that moment, like, oh my god, Alan's doing everything. He's extending for touchdowns. I actually think that matters, which is crazy.
It's so funny you say that, Will because just as you were bringing it up in my head, I was deciding do I make a mocking remark at how and yeah, and then everybody lost their mind and decided to ignore all Lamar Jackson dats and Josh Allen is now the runaway MVP, like got to like minus nine hundred after that. You know how he had that three game stretch where he was scoring all these touchdowns and he did that Laar Jackson on the cusp of the greatest passer rating
in the history of the NFL. All right, I'll oh, we do the teaser. First favorite Ace Favorite two legs six point teaser this week is.
Gil Could I share something really quick about the teasers that I've had success with over the last few years and this year I shared what I've done and it's really helped a lot, and that's using the Wong teaser but at the close, waiting till the close, not looking to get out ahead, meaning when you bet a teaser, you don't want to beat the clothes. You want the line to be easy fishing as possible, right, because you want the game to fall near the line, so you're
not trying to beat any kind of number. What you're hoping for is that the line's very efficient. You want it to be as sharp as like. You're hoping that thirst close as possible, and the game lands near that number. So I don't want to bet it early and get down on a plus one and half that then closes plus three because it's no longer a loong. So what I would do is I waited till about ten minutes to kick off on Sunday, and if it fit into
the wong, I bet it. If it was like a four o'clock game, unless I had an out that gave me an open end teaser, I wouldn't even use it. Or if it was a Sunday night or Monday night,
I wouldn't tie ahead. I would only put an open end teaser because I would only use the wong that was at the close, like if that number was and at the sharper books, you know what I mean, Not like I wasn't looking for if one book had it or two books had it, it had to be the sharpest books a Wong teaser about ten minutes before kickoff.
That was the close. I had so much success with that, about twenty units of profit doing that, just just that and like no handicap, no nothing, wait until about ten off and just teasing the one, one and a half two's I mean the one and a half, two and two and a half and the eight and a half, eights and seven and a half's down. That's it, And it worked out well the last couple of years, and I'm like, this year, I'm going to talk about it and hopefully if someone sharp out there tells me where
I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just getting lucky. But to me, it just made sense that with the teaser, I'm not trying to get out ahead of any kind of number. I'm not trying to beat any other sharp to a number. I'm actually hoping the numbers on point and as sharp as possible so the game lands close. So it just made sense to me, and it worked out well.
Loongs by the way, let me just interact, because we always assume people know, but maybe there's some new listeners.
Stanford Wong pseudonym for John Ferguson a dude who lived in southern California wrote the book on this one of the most famous books on sports betting, under the pseudonym Stanford Wong, and he identified at that time the most profitable teaser legs what as just said dogs from one and a half two and a half home ar road home favorites of seven and a half to eight and a half teas down through the seven and three obviously sevens and threes with the two point conversions, that's changed
a little bit, but not so much that it's a massive thing. And the other part that we never really include but we should with the wrong thing is that it is total dependent, right, like if the total was eighty, you would never valuables if the totals forty. Obviously I'm exaggerating what you can. Okay, obviously we're not.
I'm not giving credit to uh former Yankee pitcher Chinning Wong. I thought he was the one that created it. So I'm glad you clarified that.
It's like, yeah, it was. It was born in Taiwan.
As a matter of fact, that's the way. If you dig into what Ace is saying, that's interesting. A So what you're saying basically is let's say you have a team that's plus two and a half early in the week, and now all this right, no, I understand, and then by Sunday morning, now it's a pick them or the other team's favored by one. Right, so all the money is coming on that other team. Now what you're saying is, I will I won't take that plus eight and a
half early in the week. And maybe that makes sense because now but you're gonna say, oh wait a second, already, it's it's pick them. I would have had eight and a half points instead of six points.
Right.
However, all the smart money was coming to move the line down to pick them, So that team that you have ad may not be as valuable.
I'm just I'm just I'm spitting ball exactly exactly right.
Yeah, it's possible that that's what's kind of going on there maybe, and that's why those weren't as lucrative wears on the other side if it was pick and then it goes up to two and a half. Right, So now you're getting Now what are you getting.
You're getting the favorites the sharp side, and you're teasing the dog. You're going opposite the sharp move that that way.
Right, But on the other side, you're going with the sharp move, so I guess it depends. It's interesting, though, very interesting.
What is the karate actually the karate where like do you use the strength of the opponent against them? That's almost like the same thinking where the sharper the line, the more valuable the teaser is.
Yeah, the more efficient the number.
Yeah, I agree, I agree.
Yeah, But why are we saying for sure that the I'm just trying to dig into this a little bit. I'm just saying, why are we saying that it's sharp for we're saying it's always the sharpest ten minutes before post. But what you're saying is you gave away. You gave away a plus two and a half on Tuesday that you could had plus eight and a half when that
game ten minutes before is pick them. You'd have eight and a half points of value versus six points of value in that case, though, are you happy or are you said that you missed out on it?
No, I'm not sad I missed out on it because at that point, I don't think I'm going to use the teaser to help me. If I like that side, then we know that the teaser helps you going through those key numbers. So yes, I missed going through those key numbers. But if the line moved the other way, then I saved the bet that wasn't I would have got a worse number. It didn't fit in the wong So that balance is out, meaning yeah, it dropped down to where now I can't wan get I would have
got a better number. But what if from minus from plus two it goes up the other way?
You know what I mean?
Yes, now I would want it. I would just take up.
Four saying todd as because you're saying it correctly, todd Like. In some cases it helps you. In some cases it doesn't, right, is what you're saying, todd And So what I'm what I'm getting from Ace is is that he is getting the best of half of it and willing to let the other half go.
Is that correct? Yes? Yes, So I'm not guessing like I don't want to guess. I don't want There's no handicapped except for the total, like you touched on, the only thing I'm hoping for is that the line is on point, that it's as efficient as possible, and that's the close. Usually we know the weather we know what the sharps are betting on. We know what like all the information as much as we have access todes factored into the closing line, So it should be the most
accurate reflection we have of true implied win probability. Right, the closing number at least should most times than not should reflect the true implied win problem, the least compared to the over I mean the opener, because we don't know at the opener the exact weather, we don't know the exact injuries, we don't know all those things over early, but late we know all those things that's already baked
into the number, baked into the cake. So the line should be as efficient as possible near the close, at least that's supposedly the goal, right, if you're looking to balance outcomes more than you know, balance the money, which is almost impossible to do.
That's that's just it would be an interesting to look back on, like to actually get back on it and see would they have won anyway? Right or would they have lost anyway? That kind of thing, Because yes, if you had a two and a half point dog early in the week that you passed on and then it became like Todd said them, Well, that team might not be as good as you excuse me, that.
Team, but then yeah, yeah, But gilli Ace's argument is that the pick them is a solid number because it's ten minutes before post. So wouldn't you love to have eight and a half instead of six points with a solid line that is pick them? So you're kind of arguing against yourself in that case case. Now you may you also arguing for yourself in the other case. But I'm just spit bowling here because I think it's interesting
what you're saying. But my point is that in the Pickham case, you're saying pickam is the most true number. Right in that case because the two and a half from early in the week is not really a true number. The pick them is the true number.
So it should be it should be more times than not like the later number at least you know that's how they deal with this. Agree with you get closing line value, right, So.
I'm agreeing with you. So what I'm saying is, though, in the Pickham case, when it goes from plus two and a half to pick them, you really did screw yourself in the sense that you didn't get that bet because you're saying that Pickham is really correct, and so it would have had the eight.
Here's the flip side of that coin when it goes to four. Now what I've done, I don't want to wing it up the plus ten. That's that.
I'm oh, I see what you're you're saying, Todd. It's what I said before. He has to be willing to let some of them go. That's the nices It worked out for him by.
Being very selective. I wouldn't have ten, eight, nine teasers. I would have two or three on Sunday. That's that's how it worked out. I'd have a lot lesser volume.
And and there's there's like let's say, let's say it was a three and a half point dog, right, that ends up being a two and a half point dog. That becomes a teaser for him, and thinking then on his case would have to be, well, I'm getting eight and a half on what was a three and a half right? Like it's so there's some go for you, some yeah, all of it.
I said, what would happen? Yeah, that would I'd love to see it.
I'd love to see it. That's why I'm putting it out there. I hope someone a lot smarter than me goes through the last couple of years, and and so is where I'm wrong or if I just got lucky, you know what I mean? Like I said, I had success over the last two or three seasons, and since I had a losing year this year, I said, I'm gonna tell you what's worked for me. So if you want to put teaser in, because I don't, I don't use them for subscriber you know, I mean, I don't sell the teas great topic.
It's a great, very super interesting topic.
Let's uh, we don't have this.
Week's teaser, this week's teaser. In New England. I like New England a lot because all the talk about you lose and you get the number one draft pick, so that the what about the veterans, what about the guys on that team that are like fuck you excuse me, Like I don't want you to get the number one draft pick. I'm going to show up on Sunday. I don't want you to get them pissed at my management. But you don't know what's really going on. So I
don't like that. And then all the talk, you know, Josh Allen and the starters are going to play bad, but for how long? How long are they going to play? I like the Patriots teased up. You talked about how the total matters. This is a very low total at thirty eight, below that forty, so I think every single point matters. And then I'm going to tease Atlanta down. I think they're gonna give us an effort. You have a ton of injuries on the Carolina Panthers defense. You
got Bryce Young who's starting. Give me the Atlanta Falcons to get the W at home as well. It sounds square, but it's in that long take it down to two, Toddy.
By the way, it's funny that what Ace is saying. But if you remember in great annals of Megapod history two after not your great season last year, but two years ago, when I won by half a game, and you keep whining about DeMar Hamlin, if you guys remember correctly, does it and all you geniuses said there was no way Lovey Smith and Davis Mills could get to could beat some other crap team they were playing. They weren't going to try, And I kept saying, no, these guys
are going to try. This isn't like the NBA. These are NFL players. They're going to try. So fourth and twenty, Davis Mills hits the guy for the touchdown and they win the game. And I had a great laugh at their expense in that one.
You have memories, though, have you like never drank or done a drug in your life, But this guy's the best memory I've for see them my life. He's talking about honestly, good lord, I'm impressed. I love it.
Hey, this was this was the game that came down to me beating Gilly two years ago in the megapod because they were.
Telling detail is amazing, you're detailing these They were.
Saying, Lovey Smith and the Texans aren't gonna try because they want to get a better draft pick. And they were giving me the whole song and dance and physic was telling me everything, Oh no, it's impossible. I'm like, no way, Lovey Smith's gonna player. And they ended up winning that they should. They didn't need the fourth and twenty. They were head by like fourteen and the third quarter and blew.
But anyways, look at the last two weeks, look at the Giants last week, Like I think, I think you guys are one hundred percent correct. These players, half of them aren't even gonna be on the team next year. And you just in football, it's just too dangerous to go out there say how we're gonna lose. You're gonna get hurt, You're gonna get somebody else hurt. So yeah, the players, as we've seen, they uh, they only know one one speed, one way. Your instincts take over and they want to win.
Great point great, every one.
Of every one of Todd's memories is I'm right they were wrong. That's every That's the common threat of every one of Todd's embery, every damn one of them.
So many of those. So that's the problem. It's very difficult. Okay, I'll t Friday at Numbers games. Well, my first the first thing is I quickly look and see who's the guest on Should Have bet More podcast, And if it's not Caitlin Clark, then I move on to another podcast. That's how I do it.
Give us your teer, my teasers, the Pats as well.
I just don't. I'm going to say one word why why the Pats can't lose by more than eight? One word?
True?
Bit Ski enough said, h next thing. Next team is Washington Commies. I think that Gilly is going to be rooting his ass off on Sunday for the Commies to pick him. All they gotta do is win the game. If you lose to the Dallas Cowboys, don't even show up here for the megapod next week, okay, because we will be laughing our asses off. If those Commies with Joe Gibbs and Barry Bonds and all the rest of the people you love lose to the Dallas Cowboys, not gonna happen. Commanders pick them, thank you.
They were minus four and a half just twenty four hours ago, I believe on the first, and now they're up to six and a half. So definitely agreement. Well you a lot of sharp money.
I'm going with the new ACE system.
I'm a little worried about that game, by the way, A little worried will.
One and a half for Pittsburgh and Cincy.
Two.
We gave the two Steelers, absolutely, Steelers up to eight. And what do we have on Falcons this Falcons eight eight and a half.
Yeah, I took them in two about minus two, all.
Right, Steelers, Falcon's pretty easy for me. I think the Steelers, if nothing else with you know, a mini buy off, a three game losing streak. Tomlin, you can forget the the give up punts, which had been just an epic epidemic for him the last month. He's a motivator, gets his teams to play hard. They're home, They're gonna want to win this game, so they'll keep it with an eight, I would think, And I'll pair that with Atlanta, who
I do think at home bounces back. And if you're at landa man, and you missed the game in the playoffs by a tie breaker, a half game or game whatever, man, should we have started panics earlier? Should we have just called time out against Washington? That's going to be a very long offseason for a Rahee Morrison company.
What's the I gave out?
Would you say?
Two and a half?
Two and a half? All right, I'm Doingburg, Pittsburgh, Minnesota is mine?
Sorry, Deelers plus Steelers plus eight with Minnesota plus eight and a half, you got it. By the way, last week, if Yann's were watching on my Twitter, I put up one of the best prop picks I've ever made. We were standing in a refreshment line on the five hundred level and it was it was a long line, and I said, look, you gotta take it. It was Rothless
Burger under two and a half touchdowns, minus three ten. Now, granted, I don't like giving out minus three ten, but I didn't even see roethl'spurger throw one last week.
You said it was a long line.
It was a long line.
That is like half Pittsburgh half third, right, what that sounds like.
By the way, we'll say this, the Steelers Stadium is the most ridiculous stadium. The lines for the concessions are so long, and you can't even walk around in the concourse because it's all jammed up, and the people don't want you to cut the line. They think you're cutting the line. It's like a log jam. It's incredibly poorly designed.
How many people are screaming what's this?
And that.
They're saying, hey, we're trying to go down for many brothers and get herself a sandwich, and now you can't even walk around of your seat. What's get on down her? Nat?
All?
Right?
Final two questions of each and every megapod ace will remember these, the first of which which are the big favors, is the most likely to lose outright? The Ravens nineteen point favorites at home against the Brannis. Buccaneers fourteen point favorites at home against the Saints. Packers ten point favorites against the Bears, Broncos ten and a half point favorites against the Chiefs. Wow, Falcons eight and a half. Let's call it point favorites hosting the Panthers. And those are
your choices. We are not going below that. Wow, those are huge. Which of those ace If I came to you for the future and I said, one of those teams lost outright one of those favorites, which is I almost.
Wanted to say Green Bay, but the fact is they own Chicago, so it really doesn't matter what they decide to do on Sunday. I mean, we haven't gotten a confirmation on playing time, but I really don't think it matters, and so I'm gonna have to go with Kansas City. I mean, you know, you look at the team, you look at the matchup, you look at the history between these two. It's except for the fact that they have nothing to play for, except for the fact starters aren't playing.
That's why this number is so high. Coupled with the must win for Denver with put so much pressure on them, give me Kansas City. I think they may look to ruin Denver's attempt, and they've owned them in the series, winning nine of the last ten. In case and I mean not the opposite of that, Denver, Denver, Denver, Yes, yes, yes.
That's all right.
Uh, Toddy, I agree.
I mean I have that as my one of my plays. I you know, it wouldn't shock me at all if Andy Reid decided to say, hey, look, this is this is this is the big boys. Okay, enough about your bro Nicks and your Sean Payton and all that nonsense. Kansas City, would you like to change your pick that action?
I actually thought, Andy Reid, man, is there a little gamesmanship here where if you give him truth, seram, who do you want in the playoffs? And I know Miami has lose too, but wouldn't you rather have Denver in the playoffs than since he's sneaking in there, who's giving you our time? We know, since he stinks on defense. But maybe there's a little bit of game theory here where Hey, Denver, you know what, what's the line you use from Eddie Murphy and SNL take it? Take take
the playoffs. Spot, take the newspaper. We want you in the playoffs. We're not scared of you. Yeah, I'll go Green Bay, just because I don't know if they care. And who knows, maybe they play half, they look up at the scoreboard and they realize, hey, we're locked into our position, whatever it may be. We just pull our guys and you know, let Chicago win the game and ruin their draft position, you know, incrementally.
Denver correct answer, like the MC right answer is Denver, Denver Brown. I agree with that. Who knows?
That would be wild if Denver and like Miami lost and since he we look up and they're in the playoffs or even you know, Miami's in the playoffs. Man, it just doesn't feel possible.
Does not Miami being alive and by the way, not like remotely alive either, right, they're like right on the doorstep, right, Okay. And then the final question, final question the vach in every podcast ace. If you had to bet a side on each and every one of those these games, but you were allowed one free pass, what game would you pass up?
I'm gonna tell you, and I know you bet it, but it's Seattle and the Rams because I just don't understand it. Like I said, I thought Seattle has nothing to play for. I like that you shared the fact Gino Smith actually does. He has those contract incentives. But with the Rams having clinched the division, with McVeigh having a history of not playing his guys in this spot just one of those stayaways, Like I feel like I'm almost guessing there's no world or Seattle should be this
big of a favorite against the Rams. But if the Rams aren't gonna give me an effort, I don't want to touch them either.
That's a past past pass, Dotty.
I don't want to be involved in the Jets and the Dolphins. I you know, this Jets team, what is this team? I don't even understand what this team is. It's so ridiculous. I mean, this team had some talent on it. The fact that first, so this coach is so bad it's like hard to believe. I mean, they should have just kept salad. They would have won more games. And I just it's a dumpster fire. This team finds
a way to lose. You know, as are away, you ace to say, oh, everyone was betting on the Jets are Yeah, probably because the Jets were statistically should have won a lot more game paper. I mean, yeah, so if you if you can't, I mean what I don't. I have we ever seen a team be so off from there what they should have been. I mean they they should have at least been like an eight nine team or seven. And they're a disaster. And then Miami, you're going into that stupid stadium. By the way, you
can't kick a field goal in that meadowlands. It's ridiculous that the wind is swirling around and everything. I don't like it at all.
Well, you guys can have fun with the Giants and the Eagles. I want nothing to do with that one. That's my game.
There's a lot of choices here, man, I'm gonna say Niners Cardinals, Niners Cardinals because Arnolds have nothing to play for now. And uh, the Niners have the greatest substitute quarterback of all time when he comes into a game when the when the starting quarterback gets hurt. Josh Dobbs the greatest come into a game quarterback of all time. But apparently when he has a week of practice, he just sucks. Yeah.
But you know what I like, I'll throw you like one good inning and that if you've vote out there for a second inning, He's just getting bombed all over the building. It is very strange revenge game. By the way, his former team the Cardinals, So who knows?
Revenge revenge spot for Josh Cobbs. I will say this, there wasn't more interesting pick to make here, which is Lions Vikings. I don't fucking know. I have no idea. Yeah, the most meaningful game of them all. I really don't know, man, if nothing would surprise me about that, nothing at all, including like a double digit win on both sides.
Is Baltimore the best team in the NFL? Do we agree?
I have him as the best. I have him as the best.
I'm a future, I have a future. I just want to know you.
You got six best team of all time according to Aaron Shots, right, Toddy.
Okay, I have him at maybe like six and a half?
Really really true? Is that what he's saying again this year?
Wow, I'll go back and listen to it, but I'm I'm ninety nine percent sure that's what he said.
His numbers having that Yeah, yeah, last year he had both the twenty twenty three Ravens and the twenty twenty three Niners. As two of his greatest teams of all time. And then Patrick Mahomes puts on his cape and that's the end of that. So we've done all we can do. Ace, Thank you so much, Man, appreciate it great seeing you.
Thank you for having me, Thank you for sing I love you guys.
Thank you.
Thank you so much for having me on. Always look forward to it. I know how many guests you have and how many are waiting in the wings for it, so I appreciate you having me on. Man. I hope we passed along some winners and kept the guest spot hot for the viewers and supporters. Brother, Thank you, Ace.
I love your teaser strategy too. I know Todd doesn't like it that much and doesn't seem to like you that much, but I really like it.
I didn't say that well, thank you, will I had something personal. I don't know. I think I rubbed them wrong the wrong way one day. I don't know what it is. I keep trying to get on his side the.
Public, say, Ace, I'd like the public please offer you the full time guest spot and we'll kick out Willie next year, because that's you know, let's be honest, You're way better, I think, not even closed.
I guess guess the parents only trust me. He follows a lot more. He's gonna share a lot more NFL insights than I would. So definitely need Will on the show.
Not about the insights, it's about the personality. Yeah, he's He has a very poor sinister personality where he tells lies and I don't like it.
Listen. Only have the space to talk on this podcast, totally all right.
I think I would you change the podcasted.
More Will's on, Will's that not v Will Hill on Twitter to E's and the e Todds at t wish dev A's your Greek underscore gambler. Yes, sir, yes, sir, my man, thanks for listening, Good luck with all your bets week eighteen, and at Ashen, thanks.
For what.
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