Beating The Book: 2024 Week 1 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

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September third, twenty twenty four, Tuesday morning, September third, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Gil Alexander. Megapod Week one. Typically we will do these on days by the way of the given week. As it's week one, we decided to go a little earlier. This is I always remember. I always forget to look this up. I

Doing, man boys, What's going on?

It's weird.

It feels like it took a while to get here. It kind of feels like it flew by. It's just I don't know. Time is funny in that aspect, but should be a lot of fun Fezi's back here for Week one. I know he was Week one last year and Gil had a good year, so Gilly superstitious, got to try to repeat last year.

That's exactly why we had on week You're on to me before we get before we introduce our Rotina guest, Todd Wishnev joins us for what is Todd your fourth or fifty year doing this? Do you remember?

I don't know, Gilly, I don't know. Am I supposed to research all the games? And know how many years I've been on here? I mean, it's a lot to ask, don't you think? I mean I'm dying over here? I'm five thousand pounds. I had a terrible betting summer. But before we get into any of that, I want to just give the congratulations that is due to two of my friends on here. My friend Fezick. If you look at his face, it's extremely thin. The guy after our

Thank you, Todd. Todd wish to have everybody who who I think. I don't know if I can say this out loud. Todd, We're going to try to do halftimes this year to me and you on Twitter, Twitter Spaces, Twitter Space says We're gonna try to do that.

I mean hopefully, It'll just depend on if I can get to a to a quiet enough area.

Yeah, for primetime games. We'll see how that works out. They already will Will and Todd already introduced our first guest of the year. He's the only back to back Hilton Super Contest champion. He holds that distinction. He is a very kind gentleman in real life. He is a raging asshole on Twitter. It's Steve Zig everybody. Stevie.

Now you swear and beg and kick us that you're not a gambling man. Then you find you're back in Vegas with a handle in your hand. You go back Jack, do it again.

Let's go Gilly Erry.

That was a very contemporary reference Stevie, for Steely Dan fans out there, not for anybody under the five. Well done, Steve. What do you have to Can we just start with this? Let'll say what do you have to say for yourself? But I but I guess we should start there. Why before we get into because by the way, the format of this show, and Todd will correct me if I'm wrong. Three best bets per week, Teaser of the week, Survivor play if people are still alive and Survivor, I guess

Also usually do a little in game segment and sometimes also a real tremendous dumb bell of the week if there's something that's, you know, out of the ordinary, I've got I've already got a dumb bell of the week and an in game for you.

Oh that's right, he does have a dumbbell. Todd's going to hijack the podcast momentarily. But Steve, real quick, why for the people out there, why do you feel the need to be this person on Twitter to point out other people's errors and to point out how you would never have made such errors?

Can I take that question? Can I take that question for Stevie?

I wouldn't answer that question.

Yes, it goes back to high school and dungeons and dragons. But Stevie, go.

Ahead, interruptions over six and a half, You're well on your way.

You've already got one here.

I'm the quote Jeff Spacoli in Fast Times fridgement high I don't know.

Don't I don't know? Good an answer as any Let's okay, let's start with this because I know you've been talking about this all off season before we get to Todd's Dumbo of the week at his innygame, the new kickoff rule. You are very resolute in your opinion on this. What do your findings tell you?

Well, I have no findings, but the good coaches are going to corkscrew ugly kick it to approximately the goal line. So it's like when Gilly and I play tennis. We both struggle mightily when there's that ball that it looks like it might go in, it might be going out.

Should I hit it? Should I not hit it?

I choke, I'll swing at it, and I'll hit it in the air, up in the air and hit my head with it. This happened in real life just this week. So you want to make the kick return or think, because that's another task he has to do. Now, if you're a conservative coach and you just want to kick it out of the end zone, you want to deal with it.

Why not just kick it two yards.

Into the end zone and let the opponent make a mistake and run it out because he won't get back more than like to the twenty five. So either kick it to the goal line or kick it to the two yard line, don't kick it out of the end zone. That's the optimal way to go, and that's the way every good team it will approach it.

By week four, Okay, you said it's what twenty the average line will be the twenty eight point something?

Yeah, twenty eight point twenty five?

Okay, Does that translate? Is one thing to have that conclusion? Does that actually translate to more points? Because from perspective, that's really we don't care if it's the twenty eight yard line. We just what was the old average points? So the old average was what, Steve, do you remember twenty twenty five?

Yeah, twenty.

Because because basically where I'm going with that is they say it for the average goes from the twenty five. If they move the touch back from the twenty five to the thirty, it's actually not that big of a deal in terms of the output of points. It's when they get to the third, when they make the touch back the thirty five yard line, that's going to be the biggest spike in points.

You agree with that, yes, So I think sixteen yards is probably worth a point on a drive expectation, so four yards would be worth a fourth of a point. Now, we got to be careful, all right, Although it's worth a quarter of a point in positive expectation for me, if I'm playing Todd, I can't just cumulate add ten kickoffs and say it's worth two and a half points because of my drive stalls, I punts and now that just hurt the total. That didn't help it that I

Okay.

Plus, not all yards are created equally. It's easier to get yards when you're on your side of the field than it is on the other side of the field. So that's another big deal, isn't it.

Well, that's why I said sixteen yards would equate to a point. That sixteen yards is when you're on your own side of the field and you're not anywhere close to scoring.

Then what and you, Steve, I asked you this on a numbers game on the radio side, So for when people come back with I think Joe Peda asked this question. Wait, why was points down then? Last year, your response.

Was, well, there can be multiple different factors. I'm only saying scoring is going to increase by one point due to the kickoffs.

Scoring could go down for other factors.

And famously last year the Cover twos and NFL t Tame's got really good at not giving up the big play, because hey, if you can drive the length of the field, congratulations, one holding call and you're donezo, and you still got to score in the red zone.

So avoid the big play at all costs.

I also think it's the right with the propensity to go for fourth downs now unlike it it used to be. And if you if you fail to convert deep in another team's territory, right that you know, So just going for it more and fourth down does not necessarily translate to more points. It could actually create longer fields during games for missing fourth downs and in plus territory.

Yeah, if you have fourth and one from your opponents twenty eight and you bet the over, you're like, please God, kick the field goal, because if you go for it now, you're gonna run another three minutes off on the drive and you'd rather just get the bank the three points and let's go and start a new drive.

Exactly, Toddy, your thoughts in game and Dumbo.

Well, my in game thoughts obviously would don't have National Football League to look at. Let me just do the Dumbo first, because it's I just this astounds me to know. And Brian Kelly, who's generally considered a good coach, he's in LSU now doing ozembic and the guy uh with two O six And by the way, NFL teams have gotten much better at this, much much better at this.

Because, by the way, people should know, we're all on a on a text thread together and Todd would not well, well, there's another thing that Todd wouldn't stop about. But on this particular point, will you actually made it? I think a good point, which is Brian Kelly might have been trumped immediately by Lincoln Riley. Right.

Yeah, I'm trying to remember because I was flipping back and forth, I think between the baseball so I'm trying I remember the sequence.

You remember in particular, one forty three left, one forty three left the clock running. It's now going to be fourth down Lincoln, right. They could go ahead and call the time out there or let it run to one fifteen. What did he do? Well?

Do he let it? He let it run a one to fifteen for no reason?

Okay, it is.

It is amazing. It is such a reminder of oh, yes, college football's back. These coaches are there. It's just incredible how inane they can be on these things.

The coaches and the broadcasters. Man, the broadcasters are definitely down a level, and some of the NFL guys are very prehistoric with their views on analytics.

But the college.

Guys, it's a whole other level, especially these lower level games. You know that the third or fourth game on ESPN two at like you ten o'clock at night, you hear some very strange commentary the best moment.

I mean, the coaches, it all, it's all the same. They it's like Todd, what do you do with a seven against a three? Well, I don't know, I'll guests, you know, it's it's just what you probably know.

But the you have to know what to do. And if you don't know what to do, butN you got one hundred other things to do.

Why not just pay well hill, Hey, hey, you got to call time out here, or you know, hey, you're you're up twelve, you got to go for two?

You know, why leave it up to the coach. The coaches a hundred other things to do. It's stupid. Just have someone tell you what to do.

Which Crystabal I think did higher. They said he got a time management coach.

Finally, yes, and that guy is by to Mario. I'll talk Chrystabal Chriysta ball got a time management coach to explain to him that when the other team has no timeouts, there is no reason to run a play because you probably need a coach to tell you that. I mean,

And I would parlay that over to the Texas Roadhouse. If you're still going to Outback Steakhouse, you're you're a square of epic proportions. The food is better at Texas Roadhouse and it's less expensive.

By the way, don't go to Texas Roadhouse. By the way, I'll tell you why that the roles at Texas Roadhouse have crack cocaine in them. I promise you there is no doubt in my mind that there is literal crack cocaine in the Texas Roadhouse grill roles. Because you cannot stop eating them. Oh human can stop beating a Texas roadhouse, grill role. I'm just telling you that right now.

Where's the closest Texas roadhouse to us, Steve out here.

It's right on Saint Rose, between the m Hotel and the Green Valley Ranch Hotel.

Oh boy, oh boy, I want to stay, Sin, don't go there. If you want to stay Sin, don't go there, Stevie. I'm telling you it's a mistake.

No, that's not fair, because the Greg Peterson goes there nightly.

I think he's a part only.

Yeah, he loves Texas Roadhouse. He loves it.

All right, let's do it.

Week one National Football League, where we just had some big news this morning, namely that the San Francisco forty nine ers and Trent Williams, their first ballot Hall of Fame left tackle, have agreed to terms. Not official yet, but looks like it will happen here within twenty four hours. And that is large, especially for those of us whose instinct it was to play the Jets on Monday night football.

Oh, we're not doing Thursday Night thoughts?

Oh, Thursday Night thoughts. I guess we have to start with that. It.

I mean, you've been doing the show fourteen years and you still don't know the format.

This may be part of the best bet for somebody, or it may not be. Does anybody have with any thoughts on that game? Kansas City? What is your consensus line right now? Todd, let's have our first consensus discussion. I am showing two and a half extra juice, three reduced juice, so it's two and a half still counts.

I guess, I mean, I guess if there's an if we feel like it's half the books both ways, you can go either way. But see then the problem is a guy like Steve will come up and try to game the system and not really give any insight. He'll just game the system to try to get his record looking good. Even though he's just a guest for one week. He can't actually think, oh, maybe there's ant there's people listening who want some insight about football. But anyways, go on.

I believe Gils has said this is two point seventy five, so we can go lay to and a half or take three.

Am I correctness?

That's fine?

This is starting with that. No, we have to have a consensus line. We can't. We can't both lay two and a half and take three.

Yeah, and there has to be some kind Yeah, what's the lie? I think three. I think the three is more prevalent. What do you guys think three is more prevalent?

If it's three is three three, it is mins three three.

Yeah, I think money will come on Kansas City. I'm passing the game.

I think if you're going to play it, I would go against the Hall of Fame bookmakers over at the South Point there they have as two and a half lay a dollar ten, so they would be that would be where I would play k C. I think Andy Reid off of a bye. Obviously this is a pretty long buye he's been on. But the concern was, oh, the Chiefs, you know, those receivers doesn't look very good.

Well, I think they're going to be fine.

I look good in preseason Ravens three new offensive linemen. The Ravens defense isn't going to be as good. I know there's been a massive adjustment in the points spread versus last year.

I think it's justified.

Can't say is the better team and their home in NFL teams getting the rings. I know that people love fading NBA teams getting the rings. That may have worked, but it doesn't work in the NFL. Defending champions do very well to start this season. I could only look to Kansas City. No play for me, though.

It's a great about The scary thing about the Steelers is scary being obviously a scary thing about the Chiefs, I should say, is what you were talking about with wide receivers last year. Their rate of drops was off the charts. Chiefs receivers, including Kelsey and the running backs, dropped thirty five passes in their Super Bowl winning in last year, the most in the NFL. Other sources, by the way, placed the drop total at forty four. Pro

The Labordi truth we didn't. Taylor Swift also drop a plate of nachos that should count as well as well.

Any played will I don't know, Yeah, I mean I think Kansas City wins, and I think the point I made on the VSENT Morning Show with Lombardi is what what Steve just said about, Hey, Andy Reid, not off of a bye but buy same thing extra time to prep. I'm just curious what fest thinks. I'm a little bit surprised he likes Kansas City because last time the Ravens played a game, it was against the Chiefs AFC title game and the Ravens.

Were laying five.

Now they're getting three. I know, different venues and some changeover, but you think as an eight point line movement from the last game is justified.

Here, to quote the great Richie Bulger, who unfortunately passed away. He was a long standing member of the Tuesday group. When someone make a point like that, well he would say that was last year. The Ravens were the better team last year. There is nothing to make us think that they're better this year, as evidenced by look at that season win number Kansas City despite a tough schedule, eleven and a half, and they're cutting in line to bet Baltimore under eleven right now.

Last I looked down to ten and a half.

It will was that its venue?

No, No, that was in Baltimore. But still eight points. I mean homefield is a point and a half, two points, it's it's still a bit of an adjustment. I mean again, I can't say it's just interesting.

No, it's fourth. If you make it two points, it's four points for the for the but you're still your point is still valid. Four points is a lot.

You're saying you, yeah, thank god you're here, Todd to correct us on things that everybody knows about, like Will Well, you.

Know, people don't know. Will knows it, but the the what's it called? People don't know it. When they hear eight points, they think, wow, that's a tremendous amount. It's not really I'm going to ask.

You, guys at home field, I'd say under to one point eight would you if you if you have to go over under two? Well, well says one and a half, right, so he goes under.

I mean it varies home field to home field, but obviously, but I'd say under.

I do worry that everybody. I do worry that everybody's on Kansas City like that. That troubles me a little that there are very few people that I have heard anyway in my little world. Let's say they like Baltimore in this game, which seems like a lot of very What's that. It's John Harball, right.

John Harbaugh. This is this is this is John Harball lives for being the underdog in a big money game. It's like the San Francisco game last year. We've seen him like eight million times have like Eyler Huntley playing quarterback, He's plus seven somewhere, nobody gives him a damn shot in the history of football, and somehow he pulls it out of his ass. So this is a John Harbaugh situation if there ever was one, in my opinion.

By the way, little personal note, my ex wife's sister's son who I had affected. I had affect him. His uncle Gil. He is on. He was on the Boss. He was on the Baltimore Ravens practice squad last year and this year he was set to be the number three running back with Keithon Mitchell shelved for now. He was set to be the number three running back behind Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. And then he goes and breaks his foot in the final preseason game, so it

You guys read that article, by the way, in that same vein, did you read that article I sent you about the backup quarterback Browning for for uh? I? Did you? You? You guys were all like that article because it kind of talks about exactly what you're talking about here, like life of a guy who's on the edge in the NFL and like what happens to him and stuff, and you know what, you know, it's just very interesting if you if you like that stuff.

Yeah, and it's also stacked for the draftees right versus the undrafted free agents like a whole I got to read that article. That's interesting. Jake Browning played great last year for the Bengals, and I guess from the outside talk, I haven't I haven't read the article, but it seems like he was content being a backup in Cincinnati. Yes, no, I don't know.

You got to you got to read the article. It's a very interesting article.

Yeah, okay, cool? What was it in? By the way, For those who don't get in.

I think it's an ESPN plus just search you know, Jake Browning and Bengals article ESPN. I'm sure you'll find it. But it's like a it's like a real long article be giving the whole background of his career and what happened in his burrow and blah blah blah. It's very interesting.

All right, Week one, best bet, Stevie, we start with you. What do you got? So?

I want to avoid rookie quarterbacks week one, especially on the road, but my numbers align me on several of them.

So let's start with Gil. You're Washington. What are they calling themselves? The commanders?

Is that their name is Servia something like that?

Yeah?

Yeah, the commodes?

Yeah.

Get give me Washington plus the three and a half, I make it three. Who is Tampa Bay to be laying three more than three?

Opening? Slow? Your role, Stevie? Is that the line? Gilly? And will please tell me that there's not way more than three and a half already, Steve, he's trying to game the system. Guys, I think it's three, not three and a half. What do you guys say it's three? It's absolutely three.

That's interesting because I looked at Bookmaker, Circa and Westgate. So my first three books were three and a half.

So A South.

Point, Makers in three and a half. That's the only one minus one.

Makers and a half.

Everyone else three.

Well three. Let me look at some others here. Maybe I should go to the Vegas.

It's fine, Todd wants to make a three. I'll pass.

Let me move on.

I'll take the I'll take another rookie quarterback. Give me the Denver Broncos for my first selection.

I didn't make it three, Stevie. I didn't make it three. I sent it to our steamed panel, Willie and Gilly because you always have to be kept on your toes due to your fact and you're pensioned for trying to cut corners and optimize mistakes. Son't going to allow it here.

I have a fiduccherry responsibility to the listeners to get the best winning investment advice that I can.

You said, it's three.

That's fine, we're gonna get you know what, Denver Broncos plus six. Here is a rookie quarterback that people are very concerned about, got lots of reps in preseason, and Nicks the I test says he's absolutely ready to go. I know a lot of steam on Seattle season win went up from seven a half to eight. Denver season win went up from from five and a half to six. These are not two teams that have a big separation in my power rating. I make the game four and alf give me the Broncos plus the six.

Wow, Denver Broncos and bone Knicks plus the points from Stevie. Started out Todd, wishev your first best bet?

I'd just like to give the annual. We are doing fiduciary responsibilities here, So I'll do a fiduciary responsibility and say, please, folks, if you watch the preseason, just let it all drain out of your head. That's not football. Nobody's really trying on defense. There are no schemes to trick people, there are no good plays. No one's going to show you anything good. So please don't overreact to preseason. And the reason I'm thinking that is because I saw bon Nix

I've been ranting. I've been ranting about the room thing all summer, Like all of a sudden, everybody calls it a running back room or a wide receiver room or a quarterback room.

To the room. I'll tell you a room we should go to anyways, you know, like, for instance, Experiment Rhino. They have a real good bay I know what you mean, speaking of which I haven't been one of those Champagne that's right, the Champagne room. They've got some real skills. Anyways, I would like to go with my first pick. Has there ever been a team that needed a Harbaugh to coach it? Then a team that has been snake bitten

The Chargers are minus three? Minus three? Is the number?

Yeah? Minus three?

Ok?

Minus three?

Give me the Chargers minus the three against Antonio Pierce and the bad decision making Mark Davis. Has there ever been a lower upgrade from father to son? From Al Davis, one of the brilliant brainiacts of the NFL to Mark Davis, one of the dumbest WNBA owners of all time? Has there ever been such a drop in ownership? Give me yes, the Chargers with all the talent all the years now. Granted, I know they lost Keenan Allen. I know they lost a bunch of guys. But here's the thing. NFL head

The Cook family to Daniel Snyder.

Yeah, that's their.

Good luck with that planter fasci itis for your quarterback, unable to practice properly with the new skill position players. And by the way, what percentage of the fans are going to be rooting for the Raiders in LA?

Eight percent?

Who's the coach is going to be the coach?

Let's ship talk all of Todd's picks all year. I think that's the way.

I don't care.

Your question was from father to sonwhere is to drop off? I would say George to Halsteiinbrenner and doctor Jerry bust A Genie Buss both both come.

To mind good calls.

Willy will Hill, all right, I'm up.

Will the host of these should have been more podcast everybody, which again I don't know if I've said this on this podcast yet, but I stay on the radio side all the time. Will and I had a conversation. I don't know if you know this. Will was like, hey, I'm going to start a new podcast. I'm like, oh, what are you going to call it? And Will is like, well, I want to call it the I regret deeply that I did not wager more on this previous sporting event

Forever Grateful really trimmed that up nicely.

Well, you're very well christiated.

My first pick, I will go with a total. I will go under forty two Steelers Falcons. I've got two defensive conservative coaches. I've got an older quarterback and Cousins who hasn't played since he heard his achilles against a pretty good pass us for Pittsburgh. And again, these are two coaches. Hey, it's fourth and two around midfield. Most coaches, most teams are going to go for it.

Now.

I'm not sure if either one of these guys is going to Russell Wilson will protect the ball, but I don't know how much he's going to move the ball.

To me, this is like a I.

Don't know twenty one twenty twenty to seventeen ugly game field position field goals. I will go under forty two Steelers and the Falcons. Steelers offense, and Todd mentioned it in the preseason defenses are different. Well, if if preseasons any indication, even against vanilla defenses, Russell Wilson couldn't move the ball. Field could move the ball a little bit by running, But offensive line didn't look great. They look like it looks like they need another receiver. Pittsburgh, they

Here, Okay, totals and sides by the way allowed in our best bets, not team totals invariably will get somebody who will be a guess and be like, hey, can I do team totals? And Todd will immediately curse them out.

Who tried to do like a two team money line parlay last year for one of their plays?

Who was that? I can't somebody try?

That's right?

Uh?

Todd? Thank god Todd Wishnev is here. He is the court stenographer. He is also the security for the podcast as well.

You want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. Who's gonna save him? Lieutenant Alexander?

I think it was Kelly.

Was Kelly on the podcast last year?

It might have been Kelly.

Maybe Kelly dreaded. My first best bet is the Arizona card plus the six. You're showing six there, Toddy, six six the United States Football points. You could have gotten this at higher earlier in the summer. I'm still taking the six. I think anything six and above is good here. I'm not as high. I mean, part of this has to correlate with your pre flop opinions on teams. We'll obviously learn more once we see them hit the field, but I am not high on the Buffalo Bills. I

Go ahead, absolutely, okay, your podcast.

This is not a display fiduciary responsibility, Stevie, So don't go crazy when I say this. We're doing this Tuesday morning. The Trent Williams signing did happen? The Jets plus the points I already have in pocket at plus four and a half. What is it right now, Todd four?

I see it mostly fours?

Okay, Stevie pointed out this morning, and he's absolutely right. This line is only going to get better for the Jets, right The money is going to pour in on the Niners here. It could get up, I don't know, could go back to six where it was before you had all the brand and I you can Trent Williams drama. We'll see. So I'm on the Jets. I'm going to give the Jets out here again at plus four, knowing completely that by the time this game happens on Monday

Minnesota Vikings minus silence.

By the way, from you guys, I appreciate that stunts.

Yeah, I'm just defense. See.

By the way, Steve Fezik Cash is a big favorite to be the only person to try to steal an extra half a point in the first round. So cash your tickets on that one. I'm gonna go Minnesota.

Point that was off the board. It was minus four thousand in those places.

I just uh, I'll go Minnesota. I think they got a much better roster than the Giants. Have a pretty good coaching table. I think a really good coach. They have neighbors. Looks like he's going to be a tremendous receiver. They don't have much else. Vikings have a good coaching staff. I don't love the quarterback obviously in Darnold, but good

Homer Will's a point. By the way, the last, the last winless thing. Felika pointed this out too. If the Giants lose this, oh boy, they may not win. For they may not win for a while.

Giants almost like you. And if I come to Vegas this weekend and we all play tennis, Gilly and Stevie may not win for a while.

This is big news in our personal lives, Todd wishing it for the first time. And how long has it been since you've been here? Two years? Three years?

No, No, it's been about eight nine months. We watched the Christmas Games together when remember we watched the Christmas Game together when when the Chiefs and the Raiders, the Raiders destroyed the Chiefs and then the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl. By the way, I have a folio credit too, so we can we can go to some nice dinners. But you know, Stevie's gonna like order like the most ridiculous thing of all time. But it won't matter because we've got the folio folio.

Baby, what is that Caesar's folio?

Yeah, you get, you get, you get like a bunch of you know, food credits and stuff. Anyway, my second pick is gonna I'm gonna go to that same football game that my friend Will the Thrill Hill just called, And I'm gonna go to that Minnesota Vikings game. And guess what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna go under thunder. What is the forty one or forty one and a half? I think forty one probably is more fair.

But forty one and a half? God?

Is it forty one and a half? Yeah?

Almost all forty one and a half.

Okay, so under forty one and a half in the NYG versus the M I N N I see Donald as the quarterback. Now, if we last time we visited miss the Vikings, when they didn't have Kirk Cousins at quarterback, they started, they had Dobbs, they had some other garbage can quarterback. They had a lot of guys that were not really moving the ball. I remember a game against the Bears. I believe they scored three points or something. They Donald. I don't know. I don't see a lot

Right, stevee you got two.

I would be remiss before I go to my next two picks to mention Todd is a seventh star member. There are card matching in Vegas. That means, Todd, you go to the win, they'll see your seven star. They'll make you a win black. You can play golf for free. That's a sixteen hundred dollars comp at the win and font Blue will match you and you'll become a purple or whatever they call it, which gives you two hundred dollars and a free spot and a two hundred and fifty dollars free dinner at font Blue.

So do I look van, Steve? Do I look like a man who could withstand even four holes at this weight? At the win in five hundred degree weather?

Hey don't check IDs, so Gilly and I can go and play. Thank you, Tod.

Yes, thank you, Todd. Let's do it.

Let's go.

I'm sure Todd will have a problem with this, but since all of you are you know, you get the aggregators plays, you know that I too am on Pittsburgh Atlantic.

Can I go under? Can I make the same play? Because that is my best, my famous of course?

And you know, well pretty much you know laid out all the reasons and just the eye test. When you're watching Russell Wilson, he is an understream because he's a quarterback. I don't think he's got I think he's going to be careful with the ball. He doesn't want to get bench too early this year, and he's totally washed.

He can't do anything, and the Steelers.

Are just going to hand it off to Nausey and to Warren who might play. So I see this as like three to three middle of the second quarter. Atlanta hasn't had any their cousins, hasn't any playtime in preseason.

He'll be rusty. So under the forty two? Do I still get forty two?

Tod?

Do you want to give me a lesser number? I get the same number as well.

You know you don't have to go after the people who are trying to keep law and order on the show. I mean, if I don't do it, somebody else has to do it, and that's fine. You can have your forty two. What do you think, Stevie of the first quarter in the Steelers Falcons game. I'm gonna guess you're gonna like the under, would.

Like under seven and a half.

I'm sure it's I just if you can get an eight and a half. Tom One has been known to go for two, no reason at all.

No reason whatsoever. That's right.

So normally seven and a half, eight and a half or the same thing, and nine and a half. This is the one time, all things being equal, you might want to get the eight and a half just in case they go Florida State on you and decide to go for two to start off the season with the bang should they score touchdown.

I actually saw Tom one more stars.

More here, Steven, and he said he.

Said he's not going He's not going to go for two. I didn't actually see it, but my friend's my friend does Sean season all the time on Forbes walking with his wife. He literally lives like like four blocks away and a half a block from where the where that terrible synagogue shooting was five years ago. He lives right over there, so you know he's in the neighborhood all time.

Yeah, he went with the Montagogue after him, a bunch of Steelers. That was the enormous thing about that whole incident was how many of the Pittsburgh Steelers and other sports folks showed up. I loved Pittsburgh after that. I didn't know it was so diverse. First of all, Yeah, were you scoring Hill Todd?

Yes, Squirrel Hill, Squirrel Hill.

Okay, steee.

By the way, I'm very happy we're doing this podcast. Is I guess we're missing an all time meltdown from Paula Vadosa in the we are.

And I'm checking the score, and it is like Paula dropped the first set. She lost, my buddy.

She's literally crying as she's trying to even the second set.

She was never let me just update the score for one second. God damn it. She lost the first set six to two. She was up in the second set at least when I saw it five too, and then she got broke back and then broke again and now just lost it on her serve seven to five. So she lost the last at least the last five games of that match. Wow, and down goes my plus five

I have not followed tennis since Chrissy Everett was playing, and I'm getting into it now.

With you with your picture.

You've been doing very well, and I got to tell you my favorite player as Sabri Lanka.

That is one savage player.

I love the way she's like whenever she gets a point, Savage Sabri Lanka.

I'd like to introduce you to a young lady. I'd like to call igo Sriantek.

Who's that Trum?

I will look, She's a girl. If you met in the bar, you'd keep moving.

For my third selection, Jesus, I will take it.

Who was that?

Jesus? In women's tennis, it's important. Activeness is a key factor. Stevie will tell you it's worth twenty cents.

You know who's attractive. The los Angeles Rams cheerleaders, and I am on the Los Angeles Rams on a Segway plus three and a half.

This sure has the feel to me to just be a shootout, back and forth. I can see the Lions getting up in this game, getting up seven.

Getting up ten. I think the back door will be open.

I think it will end as a close game. It's just a gut feel. You give me that all important hook. I do get the hook right, Todd plus.

Three and a half, Billy, and I think there's a lot of three and a half. What do you guys say.

For the Rams? There is, Yes, there's a bunch of three and a half.

Yeah, give me the Los Angeles Rams and they're lovely cheerleaders plus the.

Three and a half for my third selection.

I didn't even know that there still was cheerleaders in the National Football League? Is it my pick now, Gilly?

Yes, it is your last.

Okay. Look, I was gonna go with the dinner and in uh thena you know, we're gonna have a big people. You got all terrible pals down there, you know, people going down there and saying, hey, we got to support the team in that. But I was gonna get under the forty two to two with all of these guys. But I'm gonna do something different because we can't have

Yes, forty four and a half.

Oh, there is forty five.

And a half.

I think it's it's more forty four and a half. I'm not going to try to steal a half a point here under forty four and a half. Now, this guy, Caleb Williams, I don't know if you guys have ever heard of him. He was, you know, spectacular at the Southern California and everything I heard he does hold on to the ball a touch too long, and he was getting away with that in college. I don't think he's going to get away with that in the National Football League.

Everyone's oh Caleb Williams, Oh my god. Brief season, didn't see what he did. It was unbelievable. You know what, Let's just maybe he's going to be great. Let's slow down. Let's watch a game or two and see if mister Caleb can do it against you know, when the defensive line room, you know, figures something out on how to kill the guy. I think he's going to have a hard time moving the football at forty four and a half.

And a cloud of dust. But I still got to think that the coach can't be incredibly trusting of Will Levis. I mean, they brought him in last year and they kind of said, Okay, Will, we're going to give you the keys, but slow it down. Let's game management here a little bit. I have a feeling they're going to be, you know, careful as well. And you know, in a national football like forty four and a half, it's a lot of points unless you're like a big time over team.

Gilly, I gotta chime in here.

The screen is forty five, and there's even forty five and a halfs one place is forty four and a half. You could make a case, we should give them forty five and a half, but certainly a forty.

Five okay, because I'm seeing forty four and a halfs at Bookmaker.

And that's only one on my screen. Everybody else is.

Higher Bookmaker and Pinnacle. I got forty four and a half. Okay, So Todd will go according to Steve Fessick, we're giving you a forty five.

I'll take the extra half a point. And by the way, if you talk to Stevie long enough, you'll realize that half a point is an extremely large amount.

Okay, will your last your final?

Hold them again? We're getting four on the Jets, right.

Four.

I'll put my money where my mouth is. I talked about this team all summer, the fact that they and I'm not a huge salad fan, but the fact that he won seven games with a quarterback last year quarterback play. There's a possibility none of those quarterbacks that played for them last year will ever throw another pass in the NFL. Maybe Zach Wilson does one day, as he's a third stringer, so he's a couple injuries away from playing. Trevor Simeon, Tim Boyle. They still won seven games. It's just a

All right. My final one, I say with much trepidation, it will be one of my survivor plays. I'm taking the New Orleans Saints giving the four against the Kakilaki Panthers. When last we saw the Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young was having a truly historically epic and I don't think enough was made of how bad his season was. Not his fault because of his line, but but much of it his fault in so many different ways. FTN Sports does a great there's a great sort of recap on all

I heard that that last nine games in that series have gone under the Saints and the Panthers. Is that correct? But that looks like a great under too, because the Panthers can't score or team total.

Yeah s Carolina, that's not necessarily good for my minus four, by the way, but yes.

Well, if the Panthers can't get more than ten points, it is.

Yeah. By the way, here is here. I just want to read this to you. This is from FDN Sports. FTN is where Aaron Schottz now does this thing, the creator of DVOA. They say, it's arguably just talking about Bryce Young now arguably the most immoralizing rookie campaign in the one hundred and four year history of the National Football League. They have a stat called dyare third worst ever recorded, just beaten out by the rookie years of

You guys, ever, think how lucky the Bears got by the Panthers taking Bryce Young and not CJ. Stroud, because everyone would be killing the Bears for trading a pick that turned into Stroud. The Bears wouldn't have Caleb Williams. It would be viewed to such a disaster. Now the n is all, what a great trade. You got all this stuff back for Bryce Young was a bus Now you have Caleb Williams. It's just funny how how lucky plays a role in life. Because they had nothing, They

Such a Do you guys like that? Do you guys like that team total under for Carolina? I like I like it a lot, certainly.

Telling yourself into are you talking yourself into switching one of your picks to that tod? Is that what we're here?

No, you can't do it. You can't do a team total. It's like a bonus. Oh yeah, I'm talking about Panthers team total under eighteen and a half, seventeen a half, somewhere in that range. I mean that seems like are they going to really score more than seventeen points on the road at New Orleans?

You know, I got to chime in on these team totals. The there's a disturbing trend. I don't know if you guys have followed this for extra vague in the marketplace. One higher sir taxes, et cetera. H minus one ten is going away on.

These team totals.

It's pretty much most books are starting to price this like at minus one fifteen, and with so many options with bet th exchanges and produced vigorous and the like, playing sides and even totals, it is rarely correct now, in my opinion, to try to wager on team totals just because the big is so much higher.

Hmmm, what if you get a rogue number, Stevie.

That's different, then go highway.

Different? All right? Teaser of the week two team six point teaser where Todd has excelled here in the last couple of years and he likes to remind us Willie.

Was thirteen and five last year and the teasers too. What about Willie? Doesn't he give a I know he's up there in Connecticut just checking out Fairfield women's basketball most days.

But the points for me, yeah, it's right, that's exactly what it is. Well, what I was trying to get at was the fact that you, uh, you're you morph depending on how well you're doing what category to what is the most important category, the actual pitch.

Jeezus, look, if you, if you, if you read, if you listen back to this the beginning of this podcast, I took a special moment to give you a congratulations on your thirty eight and fifteen, which is the most important category. So please don't disdain show your disdain.

For my and I would like I would like to give Todd wishing to have a special recognition recognition here because he has absolutely changed the course of my life with our challenge that we had two years ago, and I can honestly say it would never have happened had it not been for Todd.

So thank you, Todd. I am stebe. You look great. I really do look great.

I know people who are listening to this podcast will not care, well it goes one of my your thoughts. They will not care necessarily about about this Paula Badosa match. But she was up five to one, five one in the final set and from that point forward one I'm gonna count the total number of points she won for the rest of the match one, two, three, four, five five points. The rest of the match.

Reminds me of you lost twenty two point where I won like five points in the last forty.

Wait, you guys were talking at the same time, will you first? What did you say?

Yeah, my buddy who texted me and this was a few minutes ago. He said, at this point, she's lost twenty of the last twenty two points and she was crying down six five trying to serve and to tie the match.

Oh my god, is there crying? Who told her?

I bet on her?

What's that?

Who told her?

The reason? Telling the reason this happened?

Oh?

Man, that's out.

I think we may see something similar with the crying on Friday at Duck Creek Park. We may see a lot of crying from my good friend Gilly and my other good friend Stevie as I continuously hit slices toward their weak ass backands and they have to like huddle up and try to figure out what to do because they have no answers. Similar to when defenses went up against John Riggins and they told the whole building knew it was Riggins right, Riggins left and they still couldn't stop it.

I would play the underdog moneyline parlay of Alexander and Feasick for a huge one hundred to one payouts.

Todd, what would you do if I literally just started crying on the tennis core because I couldn't they couldn't counter it. I just would have Have you ever seen a grown man cry before? What have I just started to doing it? Stopped in the middle, stood there, just wept. Charlie Brown tears. Teaser of the week, Stevie, what do you got?

All right?

I'm gonna tease the Cincinnati Bengals.

I'm gonna play them in my survivor call me a square ball the obvious pick.

I like it so much. I want to tease the Bengals to the Bengals, but Todd won't allow that. So let me have the Bengals down the mice two and a half and then I'm look at the other two people.

Explain that to people, what you mean by teasing the Bengals to the Bengals?

I was, it's the same bet, so I was just but you're right. But you're right, like sometimes at good point, like with these week two lines, sometimes you can play like only give an example of a bet I should have made, and I didn't, and I'm angry, Like, if you're going to bet against Florida State against Georgia Tech, if you had parlayed that to Boston College, think about how good that correlation was. You know, you put be

That's not going to be one of them. And then I'm going to use them.

I look at the Wong teasers, and all things being equal, I'll play a long teaser with a lower total. I know Willie loves the Minnesota Vikings, but that's why they've gotten bet up from pick to miss one half, which puts it squarely into teasable territory. So give me the Giants to lose the game, but plus seven and a half.

To cover the teaser for my second leg.

By the way, when I was when I was doing research for this podcast, I read that the Cincinnati Bengals gave up six yards per play, the worst number in the NFL, and I couldn't believe that it did. Does that resonate with you, guys? They were the worst? They got killed six yards to play.

I don't remember that. I don't remember that, dude.

I can't believe that they were worsted. That's unbelievable. But anyways, on my what I.

Forget from one season to the next though, Like if you had asked me that week eighteen, would I have that? Probably?

I would have never guessed that Cincinnati had the worst yards per play defense in the whole league. That's that's hard to believe. But I'm going to take the obvious as well, the Cincinnata Bengals minus the two and a half, and instead of doing the Giants like Stevie does in the correct standard long scenario, I'm going to do something a touch different and go with the Bills on the Now, the smart thing would do would be to do the money line, but we're just going to Bills pick them

As as Todd mentioned, the reason he he wants to say it's mathematically and correct is that when you tease each leg, if you have six point teaser minus one twenty each leg, you're laying approximately two eighty. That's essentially what a teaser is. So when you put the Bills in and a teaser, mathematically it's minus to eighty. But you can play the money line mius two sixty. So

Also, Bills Sidhawks is an example of that, right, Bill Seahawks would be a good example. Yes, go ahead, gild.

Long teaser definition for those again. Stanford Wong pseudonym, real name John Ferguson wrote a book The Art was the Art of Sports Betting. I believe it was called or something sharports Bet Sports Bettingford.

I knew Stanford before he wrote the book. I mean we we talked about teasers back in the nineties together. So yeah, before there were.

Yeah, yeah, he identified the most the most plus EV teaser legs. Home favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half excuse me, seven and a half and eight and a half or seven and a half in yeah, eight and a half teas down home dogs and road dogs of between one and a half and two and a half teas upwards. So you're going through the threes and the sevens. Now, there's gonna be people who listen to this are like, that's still the case. Then it depends on the total too. Yes, all of

That by the way, is it still Rich Medium in Buffalo? I believe I said we were coming. We were coming by rich Stadium.

By the way, road favorites of seven and a half to eight and a half are not part of that. It should be noted the best part of that Todd play by play for those because he don't have the visual here, Todd held his uh, his right hand up to his ear, just his little stubby finger hands that he held up play as if he was getting the feet in. It's so great. Was my turn?

There will will he will willill.

It's my turn. But I want to know. I want to know how we got from Ferguson to Wong. How did that? How did that leave take place?

Yeah, good question, Stevie.

You know well Asians, I.

Don't, I do.

I know his daughter went to he lives in Lahoy and his daughter went to Stanford. So that's where where Stanford came from. The long you know, I think it was a term in black deck. He kind of invented.

You'd walk around just side count the shoes and when the count went good, he would sit down and Wong and I only playing on the positiveccounts.

Yeah, and was that called her long?

But why was it called Wong, Stevie? They could have said he uh, he snooker.

I'll get back to you, Stanford snooker identified the best plus EV teaser legs.

My friend. My friend is like it's he calls it sniggling. He's always shniggling for an extra. You know, he's calling the Starbucks manager. It's like unbelievable.

By the way, I grew up the old Tom Disorta story, Tom Lasorda, like, you know, Tommy John had the surgery to repair his elbow and it became forever known as Tommy John surgery. And Tommy Losorda's line was, thank god it wasn't Billy Rebarkowitz, because that's what we have known it. We would have known it as all these years. Yeah, I'm sorry, go ahead.

I mean I grew up hearing thinking that teasers were sucker bets, and I've actually heard it. I still hear it once in a while. If you're playing teasers, it's a sucker. They call it teaser for a reason. I mean, if you're getting the right price. And that's a point of contention now, I guessespecially in Vegas where it's hard to find one ten, it's hard to find one to fifteen, they're jacking up the prices. But man, if you pick your spots, you'll probably do pretty well.

With the teasers.

That being said, I'm gonna throw the Bengals in with everybody else. I'll be a little different. I'm surprised nobody took the Cowboys lower total. We haven't seen Watson. It's always something with Watson's shoulder. There's always a cloud of mystery, and you wonder if you get to the point where it's just so bad with that contract. I don't know if they can get out of it, but it's not gone well. And that's a lower total forty one and

Stevie give us a little shouldn't Stevie tell us a little bit about teasing, pricing and stuff like that. I feel like he should be talking about explaining where it used to be where it is now. All that stuff.

Started even money then it became minus one ten forever, the sharp money they talk about. Andy algorithm discovered the teasers being advantageous. Ad did Stanford Wong then became Mius one twenty and now Mius one twenty is I believe Dunzo in Vegas. I don't think anybody has Mius one twenty more, but possibly.

Caesar's still has it.

But offshore you can still play it at several books, including DraftKings and book makers, so it's still out there, but it is becoming harder and harder.

As well said to find.

It Stevie, what about the seven and seven and a half point.

The six and a half and seven point teasers, or at Mius one thirty and Mis one forty, and if certainly playable in the right spots, like if it wouldn't be unusual, you might get someone a team, for instance, is and there's some bad rules on ties louse In some places ties lous automatically even if your other teaser

Check your local rules at your book.

Good question, that's a good point. Good answer, Stevie. And for those who are way.

We just talked before you go on, should we should we just stop a second and really explain, because Stevie said that really fast. For for novices out there, what he's saying is there are books that if one leg ties, you lose your thing, so you might as well go six and a half to get that extra half a point so it doesn't have any chance of landing on two. I just wanted to slow that down because he said it fast, and I'm sure we all understood it, but you know, the the the the the listener needs to

Yeah, Todd, it's your podcast or whatever you want to say and do. Sorry, I was just rut Jay Rude, my buddy at the former vice president of Race and Sports at MGM, used to hate that they would get teasers refunded on a tie. Used to hate that aspect of it. Is that what you were talking about just now?

Yes, I would dive around the dumpsters to try to to try to find them, though, Gilly, because people would throw them out.

You ever find any there? It is?

Did you ever find any?

Think about that. Think about that two team teasers where you had a loss and a tie. The average better would think to themselves, oh that's a loss, but you can't tease down to one, so it was actually a refund and so Stevie would dumpster dive for the refunds.

Did you find any? That's a great question.

Will it's a living.

Ever find living?

Did you, Steve? Did you really find some?

I did, yes, but they're like ten dollars, Yeah.

I can. The best is the nicest guy, like we joke around.

He's the nice I.

Can only imagine Fez's eyes lighting up when he sees that it's a live teaser and he can be funny.

Even it's ten dollars.

Just the fact that he gaves I can only imagine your face like a fastball hitter gave a two old fastball, right, you.

Know, I know we're running late, but this is a real good advantage play. Like if you do play a two team teaser where ties push all right, and you and you and you have a second.

Leg that's open, which you can do with some books, and that teaser is about to lose. Your first leg's about to lose.

And you have an open spot, hurry quickly fill it and take a minus nine favorite down to minus three because you can sometimes resurrect to push. Now you're not trying to win the second leg. You need to tie the second leg. So you want to take a minus three to a plus three or a minus nine to a minustere And now you have a ten percent chance to get your money back or close to it if you can get that second leg put in. If you don't put it in, when the game goes final, they

And what I was trying to say earlier before Todd kept interrupting, was when Stevie was talking about the you know, the incremental increase and the juice on these teasers where the people who are new to sports betting are new to teasing or whatever whatever betting vehicle there is when the when the juice increases, essentially the way of putting, that is, your percentage of hits then has to incrementally

Harley Carr got nine Teamer pays right now pays. Let make sure I get this right.

The nine teamer pays used to pay four hundred to one and now it pays two hundred to one. So it's been reduced by fifty percent from like ten years ago. It's gotten really really hard to win in Vegas.

Are we all playing Survivor? Is everybody in Circus Survivor? Yes? Yes, Toddy, are you in it?

I can try to get there if I can get there this weekend, like I'm trying.

We have a returning champion on the podcast. What do you mean is he played? He's a returning champion. He's got the jacket.

Well, that's right, Steve Fezick is a was an investor in a in A one of the four that chopped at the end. So Stevie got himself his picture with the check and actually got himself a circus survivor check. That's I forgot it.

So the documentary instead of making four hundred thousand, I made three hundred and ninety nine thousand because it cost that the jacket cost me about.

You pay for the jacket? Yeah, he bought the jacket. Now let me ask you a question, Todd. If you are just an investor, no matter how much you helped, you're an investor, should you buy the jacket?

First of all? That is just see this is an example of Stevie Twitter. That's Stevie Twitter who buys the jacket in an incredibly ridiculous move.

When I can't take.

Halfway through the wait, Willie, I want you to hear your opinion in all it's it's, it's, it's, it's but one second, do you agree with me, Willy?

Not until Tod stops talking. Will because I.

Was in the middle.

I was in the middle. I'm never in the middle when you interrupt me.

Go ahead, Will Jesus, would you agree with me that is the most fugazy thing you ever heard, somebody buying the jacket when he invested halfway through the season. I mean, what all power to him. I tipped the hat for being an investor. Brilliant, brilliant, brother, You don't buy the jet, that's just ridiculous.

Will I will defend my client, mister fick here, I will defend my client. I heard the story. I think I give it out another podcast to tell the story where he was with the winners or whatever and the guy who was in charge of the jacket said, hey, you want a jacket, and I think Steve said yes, and then he's just like give me your card. And Steve was kind of in the awkward position like I don't even know how much this thing costs. I'm just kind of giving you to my card. And I think

He measured me for three minutes. He took all my measurements and like even like what touched my another regions and the like, and then I felt like, well, I'm kind of pot committed at this point. To be fair, Also, Gilly knows that hey, Greg wan and he did Greg Jones did a fantastic job. But Gilly knows, how many hours do you think I invested on that Survivor.

Entry in December per week?

Gily, Well, that's what I was good. That's what I was going to say. That Stevie absolutely helped him and then spent a lot of brain power and time. I mean, it's a collectively, you probably spent more than twenty four hours on it. You say, yeah, like you were always locked into that thing.

Well, there was two hours when we're at that bar. When we were at that bar at Nobu and Stevie was ordering all off the folio. You guys were discussing it for at least two hours there that evening while I was talking to those two ladies, who were nice doctors from the Midwest.

I've never seen somebody beef Wago tacos so quickly.

It was like speeding breakfast.

Steve and I are having this high level conversation that Toddy is just locked into these two girls.

They were loving me. Those ladies were loving me. I see, I am what they call it a world class opener, and I'm like the Yankees bullpen in closing. I don't close. I can give you a strong six innings. I can open anyone at any time. I'm going to give you six innings. I'm gonna give a hundred pitches, and then I'll hand it over to me as the closer, as the Yankees bullpen, and I'll blow up.

You are the Jack Billingham of starting pictures. Oh, the white red machine, not.

The Don Gullet, the Jack Billyham.

Jack Don Gullett was a reliever.

Gollett could close.

Baby.

Don Gullett was a starter, wasn't he.

No? He was a.

Gaming of the seventy five World Series, gave up three runs.

He started Game seven.

Oh see, my little boy brain, I thought he was a starter. Normal, Okay, gotcha. Last thing? So survivor. So I have multiple entries?

Really, what about your teaser, Gilly?

Oh that's right. I'm sorry because I never got that out.

Cincinnati guys, maybe this should be my Maybe this should be my podcast. You're right, go ahead.

No, No, what I'm finding is when I talk on this new setup, you guys don't hear anything that I'm saying when there's multiple people talking, because I'm literally talking to no one Cincinnati Bengals, like everybody else. I wanted to say the Giants just to make it a perfect Wong teaser. But I cannot bring myself to do that. So I am going to do Uh, I'm gonna do the Jets. I'm going to tease them up to ten, which I know is not standard long play, but that's

Said Don.

When I said Don gull was a closer, I meant he wet nine innings. He of course is a starter. Coffee is for closers, Todd, Coffee is for closers.

Yeh.

By the way, what you're.

Saying, Don Gullett was not. Don Gullet was not a regular season starter. He was not.

No, he was a starter, but he would pitch nine innings, whereas Jack Billingham would pitch five or six.

They're both okay, I thought John Gullett was a starter. All right, Yeah, all right, okay, Survivor. I am going to I'll just I'll just do this out of order. I think I'm gonna have a Bengal or two, but I think I'm also going to have a Saints or two because this is the most natural spot to play The Saints I don't know if I'm going to have a third play in the event that there's complete carnage in Week one, but I know that I'll have at least a couple entries on those two teams.

Stevie, I think seven Bengals, maybe two Saints. I might go Vikings. I looked at their schedule.

They don't have any easy games the entire year, so I'm like, as far as a contrarian trying to win it all, maybe I take Minnesota for one pick.

Yeah. Again, my theory is with these survivor entries, I think there's a point of redundancy. I don't know if having beyond five entries really matters in the end, because I think you ultimately play one optimally, and if you have five or ten, you're just doing things percentage wise, So it might it might last you a week, Lon' I don't know. I don't know if the five thousand dollars extra entry ultimately pays off for you in the end.

I think it has plus ten percent ROI instead of plus forty percent ROI. It's not as good, okay, but I mean it's seventy eight people are going to die or not submit their picks.

I like that.

I think that's probably right. That's amazing. People don't submit their picks.

The Actuarial Table by Stevie Fesick ten thousand entries and forty two of them are gonna die. But wait, we're hearing there's more diabetics in this year. So I believe that's going to move it up similar to the kickoff. We're going to have forty seven people dying, and that moves your ROI up so excellent. By the way, were you able to do ten last year? Was it five? Was that a new thing?

Ten ten was last year? Ten ten was new last year? Will what do you play?

Be a little different? And this isn't my official one yet, but I'm looking at Seattle. I just think I remember this time last year it was like, Wow, Kenny Pickett, what a preseason. I'm feeling a little that with bow Nix or Okay, you don't want your rookie quarterback to look awful, and he's looked good. That's a good start, but that's still on the road against the tough team. McDonald's a good defensive mind. You know, people in the league seem to respect they have good receivers throwing bon

Out of respect for Fez Todd, do you have any thoughts on this? You haven't really looked into it.

On The Survivors yet. No, I'm gonna. I'm gonna. I think it's like obvious, like what you guys are saying. Anyways, Right, you have to pick the Bengals are the Saints?

Right? I believe I have some of those.

I think the Bengals. Man, it's you just pick somebody else and hope they get upset somehow. They've struggled, really, and this trend has been discussed. They've struggled last two three years. Early in the season. They've really got off the slow starts, for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, it's just that the Patriots are so bad, so bad, so you probably get away with it. And I believe a Survivor again, I'm I believe in game theory, but I do believe the first five weeks you probably should have humility in what your convictions are and not try to get too crazy. Just my just my opinion on that. And after that you can get old frisky with the game theory. Final two questions Christmas and the final two questions Christmas.

By the way, the Christmas thing and the Thanksgiving thing look extremely challenging this year because it doesn't look like there's things. I mean, it doesn't look like they're shot winners on those Thanksgiving games. It looks like you're gonna have a hard time there.

Yeah, extremely challenging this year. I think you have to save I had written them down. There's one team that's available for both. Is that Kansas City that was available for both Thanksgiving Christmas. By the way, what top I was looking at the Vivor one the circus survived, Hey,

I had under Arizona last year. I watched them a lot. I was so lucky to cash that ticket. They were a feisty, just painting the ass team. I'll say Arizona. I think they can move ball with Murray. I'll oh Arizona, Dotty.

I think Seahawks also because you know that Geno Smith. You know, come on, can we stop with everyone keeps resurrecting this guy like he Oh Geno Smith, He's better, come on, He's still Geno Smith. Come on, all right?

So two for the Seahawks. I'm with Will. I'll say the Bills. So two Seahawks and two Bills. And then the final question, if you lived in a bizarre world, you had to make a bet on the side on each and every one of these Week one games. But you've got one pass one game that you wanted no part of, Steve, what's the game you would not touch on the side.

I like to avoid four point spreads because I can't get any help.

I can't lay three.

Who cares if I get four and a half or five or LA three and a half, it's not going to land on the number, so that the Bears Tennessee Titans would qualify. Also, I have no idea how good Caleb's going to be to start his career, so I passed for both those reasons.

Yeah, there's a lot of good answers to this one in week one.

Todd, Yeah, well, I mean, of course, we have no idea what's going to be. I don't really want to. I would just want to watch the Commanders against the Buccaneers, because you know who is Jaden Daniels. Is he the LSU amazing, unbelievable guy who would just go up and down the field or you know, and the Buccaneers, you know, I don't know. I'm still not a real big fan of that team. So I'd really just like to watch and see what happens in that game.

Wee Packers Eagles love. We're giving him a lot of benefit of the doubt for the second half of last season. He was not very good. The first half, Okay, he's probably pretty good. And the Eagles same sort of thing. People are very quick to forgive the second half of last season the playoff game. They got better in the offseason, they got Barkley, they had a good draft. Maybe, But I just I understand the optimism for Philly, but I'm

It should be noted I'm with you, toh Buccaneers commanders for no other reason than of a lot of games that I have really no feel for, that's the one that I probably have the least feel for of the bunch, because I don't know who the who the Commodorees are going to be, and I certainly don't know who the Buccaneers are going to be. By the way, the NFC South being a division where you hear some people say, oh, I got the Bucks to win it, and then some

Well, you just said we could do more.

Well on this podcast, I said we could do more, but with the constraints of time on the constraints, with the constraints of time on radio, we can't do more. But here we could have done more. We gone for the two hours. If you want, Stevie, I just don't want to. I just don't want to do that because I have something to eat. I got it.

I do want to say something, yes, go uh. You say this all the time. I don't say it enough. The VS an audience man just scumbags, not the VS and audience best listeners in the game. You say it all the time. I got a bunch of tweeted dms the past couple of days.

They are the best.

Absolutely you are you said you were, you are humbled by them, which I think is a good word.

Yes.

Yeah, they are the best audience and I can only speak for a numbers game audience. Also the greatest listeners. It's just it's it's wonderful to get the kind of feedback on this and the megapod listeners. I mean this honestly, This podcast online gets tremendous response. So a lot of credit to everybody.

Funny, loyal, smart, the best, the.

Best, Stevie, thank you, Steve Fick, everybody. The the only back to back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. You can follow him. What are you physics? Sports? Is that your handle? Yes?

At sports? And then thanks for having me on this.

I I love you guys, I love your audience, love everything you do. Hopefully Gilly keeps winning so I can come back next year.

Well have you didn't we have? He owned once or twice last year what.

It was supposed to be twice? He blew us off conference title week.

I think it was he blew us off conference that you blew us off?

Steve?

How dare you?

I got sick?

Anyway?

No, he had some like big somebody invited him on something somewhere and he's like I got to go on that. It was like Colin call or he went he got some big uh.

That's right, well that we're going to re record. We're going to rerecord Week one with somebody else. Now that I that I just was reminded of that. Thank you, Steve, Steve and everybody at Sports Will Hill should have bet more podcasts, and Todd wish Nev at Tam wish Nev always entertaining and hopefully Todd and I will do halftimes