Check it down man.
Monday morning, August nineteenth, twenty twenty four, it is the Beating the Book Podcast, kil Alexander, and it's time for the Major League Baseball Q three MLB Derivatives Betting Show. I probably said those words out of order, but you get the idea. This is the longest running series in the history of the Beating the Book Podcast, even longer than the megapod and Guessing lines, which of course are
coming up in a couple of weeks. And as always throughout its entire history, my dog throughout this all he's Batman. I'm Robin smart Porch at everybody base Winner from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. What's happened to Mark?
Oh? I'm enjoying this. I enjoy your intro to you. It always is so fun. And I jokingly call you the voice of sports betting, but I really mean that. I mean, if you're not the voice of sports betting, who the hell is So I say that you're the voice of sports betting, and you are because I said it, gil.
Oh, thank you. And if you said it, you said and that's that it's done. I don't have an alternative. I'm trying to think who would be the alternative. I don't know. I don't know.
Somebody mayby, you know, Ben Ben Wilson has a really good voice, but he's just been He's just the baby. You know. We've been doing this for the last forty years, Gil, you know.
But this podcast is older than he is. For God's sakes, he's twelve.
Yeah, I think he's twelve years.
He's great. He'll be the most famous person at VISA when.
He does have a good voice. I don't know. I think I think I would vote for your voice over his voice, as much as I love his voice.
That's the end of the podcast. Everybody, thank you. Let's be wonderful. Thank you, Mark, You're very kind. Let us begin as we always do, so these are going to get more proprietary as this show goes on, right, These are going to be more proprietary as these shows go on. As the show goes on, we'll get to five innings,
first five's, we'll get to first inning bets. We start though, with the more common one, which is all right, as we round the quarter pole here, right, because we just passed the quarter pole mark less than forty games now left in the Major League Baseball season. This is the Bizarro exercise. You've been on every one of these teams on the money line every single game, whether they're a favorite or a dog. Who mark do you have as the most profitable team in all of baseball? We have
a new one, the Guardians. Well what I have, Oh, it Covers their second. This is these numbers to me, comes from Covers. They have the Milwaukee Brewers as number one.
Oh, it's really close. It's neck and ex So this ghost comes from killersports dot Com. I really like their Those guys are good guys.
It's my buddy boss Sack.
Yeah, well, shout out to him for what he's put together, because it is. It is nice. They've changed the interface and it's it's beautiful. It literally is gorgeous. Not as good as your voice, but close. So we got Guardians. If you bet on them, I guess it's one hundred a game. You're thirteen forty eight up and then Brewers are thirteen twenty two. That's how close it is. Gil.
They have it at Milwaukee fifteen and a half units up, Cleveland twelve and a half units up. So for them it's it's I mean, it's super close. When you look at out of the course of the whole season either way, Milwaukee the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear to quote the great l Cool Jay.
It's such a trippy team too, because if you look at their components, like, oh gosh, you know, I'm looking at what I do when I run my Monty Carlos simulations is I have It's basically, you know, offensive production minus defensive runs allowed, if you will. And Milwaukee's like number eleven. And of course that's with the yellich out of the lineup and their components. But they've been doing it and Pat Murphy a great coach, He's been putting it together. I just still I don't know. And this
is coming from a guy. Gil. I'm sitting on like a plus five fifty Brewers to win the division ticket. So I really like them at the beginning of the year. But I've got them about eleventh, Gil, So interesting.
Don't you also have an a didn't you have them one to two exact of Milwaukee in somebody?
I had Milwaukee in the Cubs. I don't know if that's that's gonna happen or not. I can tell you what the percentages is if you can fillibuster for a second based on my projections. For me, it's it's not going to happen. It looks more well, No, the Cubs Brewers Cubs forty two point two percent for that to happen. So I actually it is a favorite. I checked that.
I take that back so that I don't know what it paid at the beginning of the year, but so it's the favorite in that division to happen right now.
Gil Milwaukee, Cleveland, neck and neck, followed by some distance between these three teams. San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City. Washington at six is still the funny one right fifty six and sixty nine, But they've been a dog so often that they have gotten again bizarro exercise. I guess the question, as always with this is it's fun to talk about, but predictive wise, do you feel like Milwaukee, Cleveland, San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City, those five down the stretch will still be there?
I kind of do.
I think I think that they. I mean, are you talking about like traditional standings or you talk about like are they going to be the profitable the most profitable team? Well, because they built up such a such a portfolio today, so that they should be. I mean, I don't think that there's any glaring weakness with any of the teams. I think that when you stack them up against the Dodgers, if they're healthy, that's a big if. With the Dodgers and the Padres, then it starts to break down a
little bit. But as far as what they've done from a profit standpoint, I don't think there's anything wrong with playing these teams. I know that you're kind of leveraged a little bit on the Royals a little bit. I guess the Royals Diamondbacks, don't. I don't hate that.
Yeah, I've got the Diamondbacks best record at which is a number. I have number one seed at thirteen to one or twelve to one, number one seed National League. I have best record in Major League Baseball at forty to one. I have the Diamondbacks versus the Royals in the World Series at four hundred to one. How about that all? Well, that's that's yeah.
That's a that's some that's some leverage there on the Diamondbacks scale. So that I bet you you didn't you weren't a big fan of what happened this weekend.
No, I was not, But I mean Jeff Passing did you see this Jeff Passing tweet which I think was great. Jeff Passon put out a tweet last night which really expressed to me, I mean, beyond the numbers, we're going to look at here. Just like you know, I've been saying this is the year to take a long shot fly er on something because these teams are so bunched up it's incredible. Here's here's what Passen said. He goes, this is shaping up to be the weirdest. I'll get
you exact words here. This is shaping up to be the weirdest baseball season in a decade. Was six weeks left. Here are the dozen best records in MLB. Basically the Phillies at seventy three and fifty one down to the Braves at sixty six and fifty eight. Actually, if you take the Astros and Braves out, who are eleven and twelve. The top ten teams Phillies to Diamondbacks are all separated by four wins. And if you look at run differential best run differential, the Yankees at plus one sixteen are
the most. And if you go down eleven the Twins are plus seventy, and that Yankees at plus one sixteen. Passing goes on to say, first of all, with the record, he says, the best team in MLB is on pace for ninety five wins. Last year without a one hundred win team was twenty fourteen. That was the third Giants World Series mark if you're scoring at home. And then similarly, the last time the top run differential in baseball was less than two thirty one to the positive plus two
thirty one. Remember, the Yankees lead with a quarter of the season left at plus one sixteen, less than a quarter of the season, so basically it's barely half that at the moment. All of which he says is a year after a ninety win wildcard team faced an eighty four win wild guard team in the World Series, the twenty twenty four Championship looks us up for grabs. This has been in a long time. I couldn't agree more.
Now watch them, Yeah, I know it's interest now watching the Yankees.
And the Dodgers in the World Series.
Yeah, you know. My The highest run projection I have based on the simulations is Yankees ninety four point three. As I as I've browsers soor check that the Phillies ninety four point six, so right there, less than ninety five wins. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that. I think that the gots the depth of that, and the Dodgers are such as it's really perplexing because we don't know the health of Glass now. We don't know
the healthy Yamamoto and I don't know. And this is for me, the most challenging part of handicapping as I've delved into more future betting and simulations is trying to predict that injury and really trying to decipher what's going on because you know, they So this is a good example. Gil Yamamoda pitches a simulated game yesterday and oh how did he look?
Oh?
Dave Roberts, Oh he looked great, he looked really good. What is he going to say? Oh? God, I don't We're really concerned about him. He looks like shit, you know, I mean, what are they going to say?
So?
I think that's that's tough to figure out these injuries. And I know that you can go down the list of teams and how it affects them. I think for me, the the future of futures. Handicapping, if you will, is trying to predict these injuries to the best of our ability, and there's gonna be noise no matter how you do it.
But for me, I'm sorry I went off on a tangent there, but I think that's that's super important because I think if Glass now and Yamamoto come back, it's going to be a hard task to beat those Dodgers, Gill, It's.
Going to be fascinating how this turns out. And again, already, even if it wasn't like this, as I've said many times, the incongruence between playing one hundred and sixty two games and then having to do a best of three and a best of five in baseball is a cruel playoff format anyway, So like it's just going to be mayhem.
I think it's only it is it is. That's a really good point as far as the probability of you know, if you're sixty percent to win a three game series, you know, even if you put it binomially as opposed to a seventh game, seven game series, there's a big difference from a probability standpoint on that guild. That is a really good point, it's.
It's crazy, and I mean, as I look at the standings now, though, do you think that the twelve teams that are in We talked about this a little bit on air, but I'll talk let's have the same question here on the podcast. Do you think that the twelve teams that are in playoff position right now are going to be the twelve teams that are going to be in?
Well, I think that the will. So this is how I have We'll talk about from a league standpoint, Phillies to win that division, make the playoffs. To make the playoffs, the Phillies ninety nine point five percent of the time, Dodgers are ninety nine percent, Brewers ninety nine percent, and then we have the Podres for me are ninety eight percent. So those four pretty pretty much. There Braves eighty seven percent,
So you can say that's five. So it's going to be between the Mets, the Diamondbacks and roughly and the Giants, maybe with an outside chance, and so maybe you give the Giants an eight percent chance and then you split the diamond Backs are close to seventy percent and the Mets have that the rest of.
That then the Mets just refuse refuse to take that position from the braves.
It's so bad, you know this this Mets team, and I want to give a person like a picture to bet again. So this Vincente. Beloso, and I was listening to the game and I had a little bit of cash on the Mets yesterday they lost, but talking listening to how he Rose broadcast the game, describing the picture as a beer League pitcher looks like a Beer League picture out there, that he's doing it with smoke and mirrors, And this is the guy howis been in the game
a long time, So I trust what he says. I am playing against Beloso the next time he comes out.
Oh I like that. Okay, fade Beloso.
Of a Beer League picture and smoking mirrors. Okay, I'll go against it. And his numbers are his numbers are awful too, I mean just sabermetrically, so of course.
Uh okay, I can't wait for I cannot wait to see this. How do you spell his last name? For those who are like Beloso, how do you spell it?
He's a Miami Marlin guy and as b E l l O z O volent sounds like aol. Yeah, it sounds like an opera.
Singer, right, Gil, does he wear number eighty three? Is that true?
He does? And then I said that there and that was another thing that he said. Now he's number eighty three. It's like we're in a spring training game and this is like and like, without going off on them, that's batters, like how can these guys not hit him? And they kept the guys off balanced to be fair, but I think that like a good approach with this guy would go a long way. Gill, Oh, that's all.
I'm all right, I like that. All right, let's get there. By the way, let's just rattle through some of these numbers here the worst money line teams. I'm not even gonna mention anyone beyond number one because number two is all the way at like you'd be hemorrhage sixteen and a half units on the Rangers. But it's not even
worth talking about anybody after number one. I think in the entire history that you and I have been doing this show, I don't think there's ever been as big a gap between one and everybody else as there is here. You know who it is full game we're talking because you and I talked about the five full game difference
last time, and we'll get into that momentarily. But if you bet the Chicago White Sox every one of their one hundred and twenty five games so far this year, and of course if you're doing that, you're doing something terribly wrong. But if you had, you'd be down forty eight and a half units.
Have we ever known that before? It's worse on this this fifty one point five on Killer Sports, But no, I don't remember it like we have any And you know, this team's bad, but they've they really should have more wins than they do. Just even you think about, like if you're gonna win, if you're you're at plus two hundred, right, that's thirty three percent, you're gonna win thirty three percent of their games. And then they haven't done that, so like,
and that's just from a talent standpoint. I don't know what's going on with that White Sox team. I'm happy about it. I did have the White Sox. They have the worst worst record in baseball, but I'm getting like absolutely no suspense. I mean right, so, like, you know, it's a fun bet. That's a really fun betkill because you can check well, you know, you can root against it in this this year's case. You can root against the Rockies. You could root against the Marlins. Now it's like, Okay,
well I won the best, so now I'm happy. I check shit. I'll be happy if I win the damn bet forty five days before the season end. Skilled that's pretty amazing.
By the way, if we did the home road splits, Cleveland edges Colorado as the best money line home team. Again Bizarro exercise, you bet them every single game, favorite or dog, Cleveland edging the Rockies at Coors as the best home team. No surprise, the Diamondbacks seventeen a little more than seventeen and a half of their lost units were at home more than thirty lost on the road.
If you're a White Sox backer and the best away team, San Diego edging the Yankees closely followed by the Red Sox is the best three away money line teams by the way run line de facto power power rating. If you will your favorite, you win by more than a run and a half, you're a dog. You sometimes get a win because you're a win in the betting column, because you're a dog of a a run and a half. So sometimes if you lose and you only lose by the one run you get the win in those cases.
Baltimore by far the best run line team nineteen units of the positive, more than doubling up the Royals as the number two best run line team.
You have that, I don't you know, I'm fascinated by because we do this every year, Gal, and yet Tom correct me if I'm wrong. Home away Rockies at home number two, like a way they're like down towards the bottom, Like isn't this every year?
Like it's incredible?
Can we learn? Can we learn? At age fifty four? Gill Right, Yeah, but.
That's that's the thing about the Rockies though, getting back to the money line, home and Roads. We'll get to the run lines in a minute, but the Rockies home and Road, this is what they've been. The fact that they got to the World Series once is pretty mind blowing because you're essentially having to roster two completely different baseball teams that with Cores as your home field, right because and I know guys who have I know at least one guy who has played on that team, and
he will say it, you're playing Cores. It's just so hit or friendly. I remember Sergio Roma, I always use a Sergio Romo example, his slider simply didn't slide at Cours. And of course the dimensions are it's a prairie, right, so it's doubles and triples galore. But then those same players, right, pitchers and batters alike, then have to go on the road, and all of a sudden, the hitters don't have the confidence that they've built up artificially in the environment that
is cores and pitchers. The pitches don't pitch, you know, the pitches don't go the same way. So it's your like playing two completely different games.
Yeah, no, it's really weird because and like for me, like these guys are the guys the Olympic distance runners. They'll train an altitude and then they'll go down and run and see the level so your body feels better. But I think that there's difference. You made a good point about how the ball moves. Baseball might not necessarily be how fit you are, you know, it might be how you see the pitch and on how much you can what kind of curve or lack of curve, if
you will, you can put on it. But I just thought that that was so interesting because we've been talking about this for years, and I will admittedly say that I haven't taken advantage of it. I guess as much as I should.
Have, I haven't either. I haven't either. It's one of those things that you know again, it's it's predictive. It's not only narrative, it's predictive, which is why we do these derivative shows. We're not just trying to talk about it. We're trying to find things that are predictive. It never fails. And yet that's just not the way our brains work when it comes to baseball, right, Like we're not thinking on a daily base as well. The Rockies are on
the road. I'm just gonna blanket, you know which, by the way, I have been doing with those monthly baseball bets up until the Mets this month, by the way, because they've been so bad. But those monthly baseball bets, like I was brain dead betting the Guardians in March April and May it worked out great. A brain dead bet the uh the Astros in June they ended up winning. June, I brained dead bet the Royals they finished ninth, and it finally took a fifth month for that not to work.
On the Mets, because the Mets have been got awful in August.
But we don't do that.
With the Rockies. And maybe you're right, maybe we should. Maybe I don't.
Again, I think that we got to be like introspective as much as we can. But I will give you props for for being I guess introspective about you, I guess I don't know how. I don't even know what the word is for that. You probably do, but that's a good approach you're taking. You're going a month, right, Yeah, you're taking a lot of variants out of the out of the thing. And I think that, like, and you're good at this, just like looking at it right, you
can model it. But the schedule is so important. So like I remember, like you betting the Astros and they played the As one hundred times and they played the White Sox one hundred times. I'm kind of exaggerating there, but but taking a look at that schedule, I don't know if that's factored factored in. And so I commend you on your approach. I think that that's that's a cool way to play it. And to mend the sports books all over the world who put that market out.
Here yeah, William Hill Caesars is one and Circa was the other. DraftKings participated the first month, then they bowed out of it. What about the run line? Do you have Baltimore that high up over everybody else?
I don't know because I have it. I don't have it up in front of me.
Oh okay, yeah, I got I got Baltimore. Ninth is a per covers, Baltimore nineteen units of the positive. The Kansas City Royals at nine point seven units of the positive is second place. So Baltimore just crushing on the run line if you bet them every time. And the worst run line team is not the White Sox, they're second worst. Any ideas who the worst run line team might be.
Well, I can tell you who it is at home, because that's what I have in front of me. I've got the Rays as the worst run line team.
At home at home. Interesting. Interesting, they're kind of middling when it comes to I don't have the home World sports on run line, but when it comes to overall run line, they're kind of middling. The worst run line team in baseball per Covers is by two units worse, two units worse than the White Sox. Actually not quite two unit's about one point six units worse the Chicago Cubs.
Oh that's that's crazy. That's interesting. You know what, it's crazy where the White Sox are because now I was able to pull it up Gil at Killer Sports and for me it's Rangers worst run line team, Cubs, Mariners, Marlins, raised White Sox, White Socks are above like five teams on the run line that minus twenty four units. Rangers are down at thirty three point eight units skill on Killer Sports.
So this is interesting. So again, this is the problem with these and this has happened over the years. We've noticed that I get these very broad ones from covers. Now you're doing it from Carl Sachs Killer Sports, and we love Carl that they Again, is it question of are they calculating it from different books? Is one doing a consensus? Is one doing it from one book? Are they doing a closing line? Like what is you know what? Exactly? How are they tabulating it? And there's gonna be some
difference the way that covers. As it is, the Cubs are the worst, the White Sox are second, the Red Sox third worst, the Marlins fourth worst, the Mariners and then the Rangers.
Yeah, it's interesting now, but I do have the Orioles as the best team, so there's no there's no no doubt, no doubt.
Derek gil Best pictures. Now, this is a bizarro exercise. Again, if you just backed this picture every time he started, who would be the number one pitcher in baseball? Just randomly in terms of money won? This is this is so random to me any idea.
I don't know how that count. I've got Trevor.
Wrever Williams is number one because because the Nationals are nine and two result, ultimately all the eleven times he started, Now, yeah.
That's really surprising. That's the surprise of the day.
You now the number two again and he's only he's only started eleven times, so he kind of gets away with the small samples eyes, but he still has the most money. Number two with twenty four starts and the Guardians have gone eighteen and six with him. On the hill is our guy tanner byby number two?
Bibby Bobby Byby Oh yeah wow, yeah, look at that. Yep, yep.
So those are those are one two, by the way, dead last. If you're wondering, like, who's the pitcher that if I backed him every time he stepped to the hill, is actually the biggest money hemorrhager. It's our boy flexing, do you okay?
So you have you have flex in it? So, yeah, he's not flexing his muscles.
I got flexing by margin. He has stopped. He has started twenty four games. The white socks are two and twenty two.
He was amazing. I mean, you cann't even make that stuff. And then you can't they throw him out there, They throw him out there again. Two yeah.
Yeah, you would be down almost eighteen units just betting that one individual human being.
So and you know the good thing about when you when you do a show and you bet against flex and is you can always say, well, Flexen has not been flexing his muscle.
Oh no, the tortured everybody. When don't you started your dad Jokes podcast? When does that start?
It's every day at at eight am bet Us show. You get handicapped picks and bad jokes.
Yep, all right, bet you? Oh yeah, we should start with that. So the bet Us Show, when when is it released?
Every day eight am Monday through Friday, and I take Wednesday off.
Okay, by the way, on your numbers game appearances. Please remind me next time I have to start with that. I'm not doing it to be absolutely Who are you doing it with this year? Who are you doing it with this year?
Okay? So Kyle is the host. He's the host second year in a Kyle purveyance and he's a funny guy, really good host, keeps it moving. Corby Craig is the he's he's back for a second year. And then we have a guy Kenny and his last name like is eluding me right now, Gil, I don't Kenny McAndrews because they call him moonshot McAndrews and he does a lot
of props. It's really a cool show, Gil, because we we all handicapped differently, and I enjoy that because I like to get other guys perspectives on handicapping and sometimes and I like to disagree sometimes with people. Uh not not just to be you know, an a hole, but I'd like to see how other people me to approach the sport because there's different ways to do it.
Again, well that's why I mean again, this is why you you and I connected so many years ago as we're fascinated by this ship, right like the whole process of it.
It is amazing. I can spend all day, I can spend all day looking at numbers, and I don't know. Maybe there's there's a problem, but I don't think so. You know, you know what Gil I used to there used to be a game where he had a spinner and and you spa and like Babe Ruth had a big run number. I can't remember the name of that game, but I would sit there and play that for you know, when I was ten eleven years old, for three four hours a day. So I think it's just ingrained in the brain.
Can you collect baseball cards as a kid?
I did, and I have a huge box of them somewhere at my parents' house. They could be worth something, so I went to really endeavor to take it. Yeah.
I went to DC recently and my mom says to me, She goes, you know, the baseball cards are still here. Maybe you should take it home with you. I'm like, whoa, let me dive into this. The notebooks with the plastic sheets are so great. Yeah, all these great cards. I thought I was going to get rich off my thirteen Rookie Berry Bonds cards, you know, but there's you know, all the way back into the eighties and the seventies.
I have like every you know, George brad all these you know, Ricky Henderson, all these points, right, But then there's the Then there's the players that like as a kid, I thought might be great, and so I put them in the plastic sheets too. So there's like Tony Pania and Johnny Ray all these players. Were like, why nowther of these guys get in this pass? But it's I was that was a whole childhood. Man. I was so
into those baseball cards. And I was telling Jason Wininguard, I have a bunch of and I have no idea where I got these. I have a bunch of t o five, to six and to seven baseball cards, none of them any good and all of them in shit condition. But I wonder if, like if I sold them, how much I could get for anyway?
Yeah, I don't know. You think that that Barry Bond's rookie card would be worse something?
You think that was when that was when they just saturated the market, you know, the rookie even the rookie.
Yeah, it's different, right, It's different. It's different manufacturers. And I think in the eighties there were there were tops Flear, Don Ross and and I have the one like full sets of the one that's not worth anything so that you know whatever, It was just a roll of the dice and I rolled the dice wrong that when I was ten years old.
Don Russen, Flear, Don Russ, and Fleir started in the early eighties, and then I want to say, yeah, they started in the early eighties and they kept going. But then remember like Griffy upper Deck in ninety one I believe it was or eighty nine, I can't remember, but the Rookie Card was the first of the set. Everybody thought they were gonna rich off those, and then upper Deck mass produced them and they screwed everybody. By the way, there's a great Netflix doc called Jack of All Trades
I believe it's called. It's about the family that owned the biggest baseball card shop in Canada, and it gives a great window into how they just absolutely jacked the whole baseball card market. It's a great great.
I'm gonna I'm gonna watch out goody. So my wife's always asking me, I always find the shows on Netflix, so that I like that I've got a show.
Yeah, there you got some obscure one jack of all trades. I believe it's called umpires. And the nice thing about having Mark Portrait here for umpires is he's got historical data. Let's just talk about twenty twenty four, and this is again primarily for totals betters, who have been the most reliable over and under umpires. Andy, let's talk about the overs. Andy Fletcher and Bruce Dreckman. Nine of ten games that they've called balls and strikes have gone to the over.
H They're the biggest over umps in baseball thus far this year. Larry Vanover eight of ten to the over and Lance Barksdale seven of nine to the over. How about that? All right? Oh by the way, Sean Barber six of seven to the.
Over you just mentioned. Did you just mention Lance Barksdale isn't an over empire?
Yes? I did, well.
Lance Barksdale is the number two from the This is a from eighty one game. He's got eighty one games. I guess this is over maybe the last two years or so. Uh. And he's number two from a from an expected e er a stamp point at one point one one, which is eleven percent greater than an average umpire, So like, you know, put ten percent into the into your projection for this guy. But that's good that that that that coincides with with actual that is what's happened this year.
And that's why we do this. So so Lance Barksdale, forget about the small sample size of this year. He corroborates he is, he is the same guy. He exactly who we think he is, right as Dennis what it was Denny Green's line, They are who we thought they are. Lance Barksdale basically then has a very small strike zone is what we're saying. That's probably the nature of it. He has a small It's so true with.
Some of these guys, and the slaton is so aggravating because I mean, it makes a huge difference. One call can make a huge difference with these guys the talent level where they're at gilt.
So these are the now, these are the most under reliable under umpires for this season. David Arietta is four of four. That's a small sample size, but four of four in terms of going to the under let's see here. I don't know, these numbers are a little wacky that I have Tom Hanahan and John Lipke both eight of ten to the under, John Bacon and DJ Rayburn nine of eleven to the under, Rob Drake ten of thirteen to the under, Brennan Miller, ten of thirteen.
To the other.
Now Fonzo Markz eleven of fourteen to the under.
You know, I don't have any of those guys in there. On The two guys that I will say that I will, I will look at playing an under when they're when they're umpires are Bill Miller and Doug Eddings, and they're number one two from from an under understandpoint. Those are the two guys where and it. You know, normally these guys, they you know, they don't trend like one way or the other. But that damn Bill Miller. I mean he's given guys calls everywhere, and Eddings is the same way.
So those two guys, like I will not let's just say this, gil, I will not playing over when these guys are the empire.
So we'll do it. That's great to know. Doug Eddings this year seven of eleven to the under, so he's still being Doug Eddings. Let me see, Bill Miller, that's your hold music. Here's our boy, Brian, there's our boy, Brian Knight five of seven to the under. We always bring him up. Bill Miller. Where is Bill Miller this year? Eddings? Eddings absolutely matches and then Miller there.
Ahead on the over. So that just goes to show you that, you know, sometimes yeah, it's not about the umpire, that's right.
That's why I can't find him. I'm still scrolling for Bill Miller. Yeah, oh there is. Oh I have him as six and six. So Bill Miller six and six on the over and the unders according to the records here at covers. So okay, but historically he's under. But that what does that say about Bill Miller and Doug Ednings and the guys listening to their strike zone is like is like you know, a prairie. They give calls to the pitcher all the time.
So, by the way, go ahead.
Could you ever go back and watch like Greg Maddox and Tom Glavin highlights and all the pitches they got off the strike zone?
Oh yeah, no, no, no, those guys used to and it was all about what it's better than it used to be. So that's a good point because those guys used to, like they throw it close at it'd be a strike and guy that must have been been annoying from a from a hitting standpoint.
Yeah, I mean, I don't want to disparage their legacies, but good god, I mean, come on. Of course, the Levon Hernandez Marlin's World Series game is the greatest example of that, and the announcers didn't even say anything like Costas barely even reacted like Hernandez would get a strike a foot off the plate and Costas is like strike three.
I'm like, what you know, it's interesting that you're you're going back and YouTube's doing a good job of this. You can see various games in the past, and I I enjoyed doing it. I wish I had a little bit more time to watch them. But uh, the All Star games I've been watching, I've watched a couple of those, and it's it's good. It's just it hearkens you back to a different, different age where it's not guys, and it's great to have all this data. It's great. From
a handicapping samen, Don't get me wrong. I've spent my whole adult life and really the last five years being able to program, so I could I can manipulate it. I think it really helps out. But there's something about just watching a game without just enjoying the noise of the crowd and they and a really good call of the game by Invinscali that does a lot on the on uh on YouTube and listened to him and even Garagiolo, who I never really liked, but it just he's got
such a charm about him. Yeah, and so so that was, uh that's interested.
To watch it, I you know. Dion Sanders famously said when he played both sports, he famously said, the best sign he ever saw was someone who said there was a tribute to the old anti drug commercial where they had a picture of a football and it said Dion's brain on crack. And then it had a picture of a baseball, said Dion's brain, and it's Deon's brain. Then Deon's brain on crack. So it was the baseball first,
Deon's brain, that football Deon's bren crack. Which is a great way of sort of compartmentalizing how our brains take in both of those sports too, right, Like, my first love in life was football. It's the first thing I can remember. I can't explain to you why I loved it. My parents were immigrants. They didn't know anything about football, but the very first time I saw one Washington Redskins play, I couldn't think of anything else for the rest of my life. Right like my child, I was just like
I was mesmerized by it. I fell in love with football in a way that I cannot describe. It's only how the human brain that was inside of my head functioned.
Right.
I was like, this is the greatest thing I've ever seen. I'm obsessed with this. I must soak in all knowledge of it. Baseball inhabits a completely different part of the brain where And this is why I always say October's
my favorite month. I love the crack of football on the weekends, and then the brain and then the brain part during the week of the baseball postseason, because baseball still to me, appeals to the handicapping and the numbers and the baseball card collecting and the nerdiest of ways. And I'll just I love it in almost as much, but in a completely entirely different way. Anyway, Anyway, keep those umpires in mind. What is the place that you
go to? Now? Again, we say this every time, but let's remind folks where can they get umpire assignments.
Well, the what's called umpire crew used to used to tweet it out, but but honestly, you can do it yourself. And it's just all you gotta do is go the first base guy for the for the night before goes to home plate, the second base guy goes to first base, and so it's really the first base umpire from the night before. And I don't go to answer your question, I don't go anywhere except my I'm my own source guilt, right,
But I'm able to pull it in. I'm able to pull it in and put it into the model like automatically.
But how do you know mark who's on first base and to know that they're going to be at home plate the next night? How do you know the names of the cruise?
I pull it? Oh the cruise? Well you can just pull it. So, so how it's done from a technical standpoint, Every morning I run it. Who was the first base umpire? Uh? Last night? For each for what? When is game? It's a series? Game two, three, or four?
Where are you where you're getting the name MLB dot com mlbat's yeah, it's it's it's in the box. Wore okay, Okay, So then you can just do it. You just do the rotation at that point. Gotcha, So you see a fresh face.
I think that's as we're talking about it as a pro I'm writing it down as a project for next year. I'll go ahead and do it at base winter dot com. And so I mean that's that's I'm doing it anyway. It might as well just publish it, that's all. So uh yep, okay, cool. Let's go to first five innings. Now, this is where it gets a little more proprietary. This used to be available. Joe. They used to do this. I used to do it manually for many years, first five betting wins, losses, pushes.
Then I wanted to where did Joe Ostrowski work? Where did he work? Some They used to at odd Shark. They used to do it at odd Shark for at least one year, maybe two. And I used to just use theirs because it allowed me not to have to do it. I don't know that they do it anymore. Oh maybe they do. They actually do still do it. I didn't know that they were doing it. But it's not Joe anymore. It's a guy named Ethan. I didn't see that they were doing it, so they actually do
tabulate it. I'll actually compare now to what they have to because I get them now at a completely different spot. And again they don't really match. They don't really match. Who do you have?
Is that we just go with? I think we just you know, I have this data somewhere and.
Oh no, because it's a different date. These are the odd shark. One is thirteen days behind. So okay, I'll do with the one that's up to date, up to the minute. Do you do this at all? Mark?
You know I have it somewhere in my code, but I don't have it in front of me.
So okay, I've got Baltimore number one. This is just betting teams first five, Baltimore number one. If you bet them every day on the first five line, favorite dog, all of them. They're sixty eight, forty four and thirteen. Remember there's pushes, so you'd be up eight point six
to seven units betting them. Boston is second, you'd be up eight point three seven units, So eight point six seven to eight point three seven, Arizona's third, Phillies fourth, Milwaukee's five, and now we get under two units at so only the top five teams make you more than two units on the entire season and first five betting. Think about that. Cincinnati, who's in six, would only have you up one point seven five units on the first five line. If you bet them every single game this year,
you'd be fifty five to fifty one and eighteen. Kansas City seventh, wait for it, Cleveland is eighth, you'd be up a unit point six and ninth most profitable up up zero point eight four units, a tick above zero. The Chicago White Sox everybody ninth place, forty six sixty one and at up zero point eight four units.
By the way, one sixteen more games than they have on the overall on the first five, then.
Sixteen, so that's our number. That was the answer to my question. So how many times have they been a head after five and still lost? And the answer is sixteen? No, you know I did that because I have twenty two out of one, twenty five. That's that's what I have. Twenty two times. You sent this to me, So it's twenty two times. Twenty two times this White Sox team has been a head after five and lost the full game. And you you sent this to me because you ran you ran a query, no I did.
I just did it this morning. So it's twenty two times twenty two times zero ahead and they end up losing the game. Out of one hundred and twenty five games, so that's seventeen point six percent of the time should be like a true odds of like plus four sixty eight, and you're usually getting about plus seven twenty five plus seven fifty with that particular So it's something that and it really it's been it's been lousy the last couple
of weeks, but before that it was really good. Now now even even so at seventeen point six percent plus four sixty eight, you can get plus seven to twenty five on a plus four sixty eight. Yil, I take it every day, right.
It's fantastic, It's such I mean again, this is this is maybe in all the derivative shows we've done this year, this has been maybe the most amazing thing. And it's not that we don't know that the White Sox think we get it. Everybody does. But the fact that you'd be profitable, however small, you'd be profitable betting the first five you'll obviously be hemorrhaging, what do we say, over forty eight units? You said over fifty one units if
you bet them full game. That's the biggest split we've ever had on this show, clearly for any team ever. It's just incredible. It's a fifty two unit change between the end of the fifth and the end of the game. That just is remarkable. And what does that say That says their starting pitching is, you know, pretty okay, and their bullpen is the worst thing on God's Green Earth is basically much of that.
Yeah, And what it says to me, Gil, and we've been talking about this for the last two years. It's hard to put together, but I think as a handicaper, I think as a guy who you know, I would think people would listen maybe sometimes to what I say, maybe all the time, but sure of what I say. I think that the ideal way to handicap baseball is to handicap the first five and then to handicap the
last four. And I think that that's something that of course I'm in the process of being able to do that, but I need to kind of step that up because that's that's pretty pretty darn amazing. But like, not only that, if you had if you were equipped with the first five model and a back end model if you will, you'd be able to use that with live betting too. But that's really interesting that we're talking about that because it's kind of confirming what what we've talked about for
for a long time. Goal.
So there's a few things there. One, you know, we talked about this double result thing. How many places offer the pre flop double result of White Sox ahead, White Sox lose first five full game.
Well, if you can have an outlet that has props builder, that's worldwide. I've seen it. Yeah, they're here nationally. It's an available market you can get at most places. I would say that you can. If you had three sports books, at least two will have them guilt ok o.
And then of course there's the live betting opportunities which you just mentioned, which is the other way to do that is if you don't have that available to you, is you know they're winning and then you bet the other team. A lot of people have just been doing that a lot this year. The other thing you bring up is more fascinating to me beyond the white souce, which is you got a handicap the first five, then
you got to handicap the rest of the game. And you do a great job with bullpens, you know, because you really break it down not just by closer, you do the underbelly of the bullpen too, which I think is I think that, more than anything, is the key to baseball betting. It is also the reason I got out of daily baseball betting. Right. So for those who have been with us long enough, they remember a time where, through the year twenty sixteen, Previson, I was a baseball better.
First all, I was, like you Mark, every day, my obsession was just betting baseball, and it immersed I mean, you know how it is. It takes over your life. That's all you think about all the time. You know every number, about everything when it comes to Major League
Baseball starters. But when the game started to change and starters started to come out earlier, or for God's sakes again openers existed for some teams, then I no longer and especially then Vson happened, I no longer had the time to properly bet baseball because also you had to start to release them the night before to really get the best of the number, because the markets were moving quicker too. So as a confluence of all those events,
I just couldn't do it more. And your ability that you have the time to actually go in and assess those bullpens. That's why I think people should listen to your show every day at bet us, and they should listen to more than half of what you say, Mark, because you actually have a wisdom that a mere mortal cannot possibly have if they have other things to do.
Well, I appreciate that, you know, it's it's about definitely a bandwidth issue, and that's one of the reasons. And it took me a while. You know, I started learning Python about six years ago, so forty eight years old, and the brain doesn't have as much plasticity as it does when you're forty eight years old. But it's taking me six years and I feel right now comfortable being able to pull this data and run money Carlo simulations, be able to okay, well, let's see half first five,
last four, been being able to do that. So for me, it's exciting, it's and and so if you do listen to half of what I say, I think I think you're going to be doing pretty good.
Gil, I think. So, what's our takeaway from the first five Beyond the White Sox do we feel like, well.
One thing that you did that you that you mentioned and and I think it's easier to handicap first five because you don't have to use the bullpits. Right. Thing that you mentioned is is you had to go. I think there's only maybe what eight teams that were were positive on the on uh yes, setting.
Let's talk about that for a second.
So you have a bigger spread, You're you're for the most strata dealing with Yeah, exactly, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Twenty cents as opposed to ten. Let's say that. But that's that should be. And again, no one bets first fives this way, but that should tell you something, right that there are only one, two, three, four, five? Was it one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven. I guess there's eleven profitable, but six of those are less than two units for the whole season, right, So it's really only and the fifth is only like two and a half units. So it's really like, it's just
not that profitable of a thing to do. It's not as profitable as we think it is.
It's harder to beat.
It's harder to beat because of the stratle you've.
You've got to really pick your spots. And and for me, from a proper ability standpoint, without getting into it, it's easier to predict. You would think that the sports books would be a little bit more competitive with it ted, and maybe we'll see that in the next few years. Ago I don't know.
Yeah, all right, let's get to the let's get to the first five. Excuse me, not the first five, the first inning. These are super duper proprietary. You won't find this anywhere else. A lot of people like to bet first innings. Me and Jason Winingarten used to make a cottage industry of it. We would bet yes no runs and in those days we did it betting betting yes runs against aces was the most profitable thing ever in
the prices were such. Now there's a whole cottage industry of people betting the nose, which has been profitable for them. So it's just a different it's a different environment these days. But if we look at pictures that have performed the worst, let's start there. First innings this year minimum fifty five played appearances against who do you have? Who do you have? Because you do this as well, right.
Yeah, I can, I can definitely do it. The one thing that I need to do is I need to put my fifty five innings pitch, because that's that's where we're different sometimes, right I did.
I just randomly set fifty five plate appearances again, but.
This, this is kind of a cool guy. Yeah, so we got we got fifty five plate appearances and you use on base percentage? Is that I do?
For whatever reason, I decided, I always land on on base percentage, just the way I do it.
Yeah, So I'm looking at talk about the padres Joe Musgrove for sixty seven on base percentage? First first inning?
How many plate appearances against? Because I don't have Musgrove show up.
He's got sixty plates.
Okay, So why don't I have musk Grove? Oh I don't have musk Grove. You know who I have? I have Keaton Win as the worst.
He is up there, Gil four thirty three, he's number four thirty.
Oh So for some reason, I don't have musk Grove, but I have Keaton Win four thirty three. Then I have Logan Allen for twenty five, and then I have Hunter Brown, Chris Bassett.
They are all up there. Gombers up there.
Too, or fifth for me?
Yeah? Okay, uh yeah, so that's why not mus Grove? Yeah, yeah, I don't know, Gil, I don't know.
Let me reduce it to fifty. Let me see what happens if I do fifty, does musk Grove show up at fifty? Hold on, let's see what happens? No, what do I have a musk Grove problem in this? I got ty block? That is the worst from who.
Is your source that you used? You are you? Are you your own source?
I am my own source. So do I have a musk Grove problem? Is the question? What did I What do I have?
Is?
What's the glitch with musk Grove? Anyway? I trust you with musk Grove. But this is the first time I have just had a complete omission on something that's interesting. Where is okay? I see? So if I reduce it to forty five, then Musgrove starts showing up. But when I increase it to fifty against anyway, this is not
exciting for people to listen to. Anyway you have Musgrove was number one, But we have all the other same names that are up there, which is again Keaton, Win, Logan, Allen Hunter, Brown, Chris Bassett, Austin Gomber, who else you got up there?
Gomber, Brown, Logan, Allen Casey, Mize he's six. And Griffin Henning, a guy who I like to bet against with the bad he's seven.
Yeah, we got all the same names except Muskrove.
I don't know what.
Happened to my musk Grove, but it's bothering you because we have the exact same putout output otherwise. Right when Alan Brown, Basset, Gomber, Miz Canning, I know what happened, and.
Less Musgroves on the on the injured list and they're not they're not populating that because he's injured. That's the only thing I can think.
Of, all right, best first inning, one forty three on base against first inning Tyler Glass. Now Tyler Glass, that's I have.
That's funny. That's how we're missing one guy. That's so funny, uh In glassdow Gosh? That so how difference, yes, how big of a difference does that make to the all the playoff calculations? Is this guy gonna come back?
And yeah, Todder Glass now one forty three on base against the next best is Renaldo Lopez of the Braves at one ninety four, and then Dean Kramer of the O's on the leaflet two hundred against interesting.
Yeah, that is exactly what I have.
And then by the way, Scooball followed by Zach Wheeler and showed him Managa and then Crochet. So some of the people you would expect to be up on that list.
You're size except for Musgrove.
I don't know Musgrove. What do I have against Musgrove? He's not in this thing. That's really weird. That's the first time that's ever happened. Where do I have Muskgrove? He doesn't even exist, So I must have a plate appearances against glitch with him.
Maybe I don't know, that's weird. I mean maybe maybe there's something universal about that.
I don't know.
We'll see Joe Muscrow will be the World Series MVP, and so like, I don't maybe there's something there.
Do do I have a basis on balls thing with him? That makes like I don't know because I have played appearances he shows up at forty five, but he doesn't show up at fifty five anyway, anything there in the first inning stuff, So so the biggest thing of the picture. I like your comment earlier in terms of like a fade, in terms of a picture, is our old guy number eighty three for the Miami Marlins. That's that's a pretty that's a pretty awesome thing. Beloso, your guy.
Uh, it's something. This guy's amazing. I mean, he's doing it and so like that's one of the things if you ever listened to radio, I love listening to the radio broadcasts more than the TV because you get really good insight on that. And I've just never heard he's calling guy a Beer League pitcher using smoking mirrors, and so I can hardly wait till the guy starts.
Now, was that the home? Was that the home announcer saying.
That that's how he rose? Yep, exactly. He's been Howie Rose has been in a game gosh a long time, maybe since the early eight I don't know when he started, but he's been at least thirty years. Gill really good. The The BET's one of my favorite radio broadcast.
Gill Well Baoso has pitched thirty three innings this year for the Marlins. Beoso thirty three innings two point four to five ERA, but his expected ERA is three point ninety nine and his EXPIP is four point eight two. Why because his home run to fly ball rate is five point six percent, so that's super low. His strand rate is eighty four point nine percent, which would be historical if you spread it out over tons of innings, and then his bab babit is fortunate, but it's not
that fortune. It's two fifty eight. So okay, beoso, that's a fade for the next time.
It's not a whole like I've seen. I've seen guys with like after six starts have like a three e r A and like a seven. Yeah, you know, basement or ear So it's not like.
Huge, but like terror.
I think if you look at like the stuff plus and then you just look at the guy pitch. I mean, I totally agree with what what how he rose said, he's to the eye, he's just awful. So anyway, maybe maybe caution, there's no such thing as a luck, but I would say this below so that against this guy the next time out, Gil, I just.
Love that you the most mathematical guy in the world, the most numbers the guy in the world. Mark Worshit is like sometimes it's the eye test. This is an eye test.
Play ah, yeah, this guy, this good. I don't know. Maybe again, like it's happened to me with Blackburn, Marty Perez had a first half couple of years back that was just unbelievable, and now he's regressed to the Marty Perez that you know. Uh, but it's so funny, you know. For all of that, Gil, remember Josh Tomlin and you would be against Josh thumbin all the time. He at least had some like decent metrics, like he had good location, good command, and like so at least he had something.
But I can't even say that about this guy, Gil, I just have.
To tribute paying tribute to Martin Perez because for the length of time that you have you and I have done this podcast, he has been a major league pitcher Martin Perez, which is incredible that that's amazing that that dude has made it this far. What is his life? What is his lifetime era four point four to five and yet he's still a major league pitcher all these years because he had that one year, right, he had that one year in Texas. I mean, he's it was.
He was an All Star and maybe like like his numbers weren't bad either, Like like I had to eat a lot of crow there because I bet against him a lot, but he I mean, he got to the point where I wouldn't bet against him because his numbers were decent. In fact, I might have bet on him a couple of times, but then he's lost that. But
shout out to him. You know, I don't know why this came to my came to my because we used to always like come up with a guy like who is the word like from a sabermetric standpoint, Geo Gonzalez. That guy used to walk like five guys a game.
It's so bad. And he yet he pitched, you know, and he'd win games. He'd figure out a way despite all that. Mark good stuff because we got a we gotta fade on Bioso. We got some umpires that we need to keep an eye out for. And interesting stuff about again the Rockies in the home road splits. I mean again, it's just it's ridiculous, tied and tried and true, and I do think you know, the Nationals have the Nationals and the White Sox, two teams that you would
not expect. Obviously we talked about the White Size more, but two teams that you would not expect to be as good as they have been first five for the entire year, it has kept up. And so when we think about is it is it predictive? Well, at this point one hundred and twenty games in one hundred twenty plus, it feels like it's kind of gonna go the whole season, doesn't it.
Yeah? I mean, and if you run the numbers right, you're like, okay, well they're right in the market. From an over understandpoint, I think they're setting the market right out forty game skill. Let's right about how I have it. But like, at some point, is it just like is it? Is it not a number sick? Is it a chemistry thing? Isn't it just a just a universal like this team's gonna be the worst team of all time?
You're talking about? Can you talking about the White Sox? Yeah, I mean it's just ridiculous.
Yeah, it's really exactly.
Yep, there's never been a they may set the record, they may set the record, which again, worst I add this up. Let me see if I can find it in my notes. But the White Sox right now, let's close it with this, just because I'm curious. The White Sox right now as we do this podcast, on Monday morning, August the nineteenth are thirty and ninety five, thirty and ninety five. That is a win percentage of two forty.
Win percentage of two forty. Now, when we go to the historicals on a team like the White Sox, you're trying to two things. On a one hundred and sixty two game schedule, will they have the worst record? And then just period, will they have the worst percentage in
terms of the worst record. Again, two forty is what they're winning percentage is right now as we head into the home stretch of the season, and I'm trying to get the exact numbers here that I had up for the White Sox, and we say, if I can find it, as we do this, okay, the A's who are I mean, it's not even, It's not close the White Sox. The White Sox were actually worse, right they were two thirty five. There were twenty seven and eighty eight some time ago.
Here recently, now they're to forty winning percentage that was two thirty five. The nineteen sixteen Philadelphia Athletics were thirty six and one seventeen. They had a two thirty five
winning percentage. The White Sox are two forty right now, so they're a little ahead of the pace for the worst winning percentage of all time, the worst in one hundred and sixty two games schedule, though they were actually ahead of, which was the Mets in nineteen sixty two who went forty one point twenty and one for a two forty eight winning percentage.
I guess they got a tie in there. I love that they had a.
Tie in there and they had one game that didn't get played. The White Socks are are worse than that, So they're better than the worst winning percentage of all time, the nineteen sixteen Philadelphia Athletics, but they are excuse me, they're better than the Philadelphia Athletics of nineteen sixteen, but they're worse than the nineteen sixty two Mets in terms of one hundred and sixty two game schedule. That's what we're dealing with with this team right now.
And they're right in the market at forty games forty and a half games, so that is right on the number you can get that, yeah, And I have them at forty one point eight, so they the base Winter Nembers said that they won't be the worst team of all time, but they're I mean, there's room for argument because that's not that big of a gap. Forty one point a too forty. So anyway, that's that's kind of
how it shakes out there by by this team. It's like you just you just think about it, like, okay, if they're gonna win thirty three percent of their games plus two hundred and they're winning twenty four percent of their games, so like there's more to it than even how crappy they are.
Gil, do you remember what what your pre flop number was on them?
I have it somewhere. It was sixty sixty, maybe sixty two or something like that. Yeah, okay, I don't have it. I don't have it in front of front in front of me.
But hey, by the way, how did you how did your your pre flop season win total bets? Are they doing well?
They're doing okay. You know, I'm losing with the Rays, I'm winning with the Twins. There's a couple ones that that are like, damn, kind of I'm kind of like gonna have to see what happens. But the one that the futures that are really paying off for that one, that one's a plus five fifty I think, and then I've got the Brewers. That's the other win total that I have. That's that's almost a winner right now. But I have them at plus six hundreds. So I've got
some good ones that we got. I've got some cruddy ones. I'm still holding out of raise though. The Rays are like eighty four ish I think, and so that sweep of the Dbacks kind of helped. So I was leveraged a little bit on the on the Rays and that was kind of a bad call. But I think we need to when we're introspective, we need to tell people when we're good. We also need to tell people when we're not so good. With the Rays, I think I kind of missed on gil.
I had two season wins. One was the over. My favorite one was the over on the Padres, which is cruising home, right. They were they were eighty and a half, so they only had to go five hundred. They're they're cruising at this point. The Rangers were my only over last year, right, my only season win to display. But I did have a second one this year that is
not so good, which is the Cubs over. They really, I mean, they got to get to eighty five wins and they're they're trending below five hundred right now, so they got work to do if they're gonna get to eighty two.
Well, I mean, where are they at, like eighty eighty ish eighty one? Let's see what I have.
I mean right now on pace for like seventy nine or eighty, right, but it's like.
This, we've got eighty, I've got eighty in the model. But hey, they're still close. There's still there's still hope for that. I was opposed to you on that podres play. Yes, well I I'm all podres right now. What they've done is pretty good. And I think I put that out before they got ceased too, So that's nothing that you know, if you put him out too early. Yeah, that that's a big difference. That's that Dylan Ceases has been. He's been quite the pitcher this year.
Go Mark. Always a pleasure. This is our you know, hopefully we can do a we can do a pre playoffs one, but you know what, it's always right in the middle of football season, so I don't know if I have the time to do it. We don't usually do it in recent years, but I can't say how much I appreciate it, man, just I can't say it enough. These are always so.
Much more pleasure. It's my pleasure. Good to know that we've been around for as long as Martin Perez.
Martin, Martin Perez, Tildy. Yeah, we can't have him retire because that means I guess we have to. So please please keep pitching, Martin.
Perez, I got to pitch pitch forever.
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Us Bang, Mark Portraite, everybody at base Winter. Thank you, Mark, my pleasure, Gil, good luck with all your baseball bets. Hope we gave you something here to make some money for us,