Wednesday morning, July third, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast MLB Derivatives Q two with Mark Borchert. A tradition unlike any other. Literally, I said this the last time, the oldest of the Beating the Book series, even older than the megapod and guessing lines. How about that Mark porchrid from an undisclosed location in the desert at Base Winner. What's happening?
Well, it's It's amazing that we've been around so long. Gil. It makes you feel kind of old. But you know what I remember, handicapping for whatever.
When you bring that up, the two thousand and six World Series Rockies in Red Sox. Oh man, God, you know that was almost twenty years ago.
Wow?
Was that two thousand and six or seven?
Two thousand and six? Yeah, because two.
Thousand and seven, wasn't that that horrible Cardinals team that won the World Series? That might have been the worst team to ever win a World Series?
That's right. I think they beat the Tigers that year.
Yeah, But two thousand and six, the fact that the Colorado Rockies got to a World Series is just one of the more by the way, we talked about the most amazing feats in sports history. Given the troubles of h roster construction of a team in corse Field, the fact that they got to a World Series is sort of this under the radar incredible thing that happened in sports. And then I think the Red Sox swept them, didn't They.
They did, and there was there was a Ubaldo Jimenez just pitched like I mean, he was lights out for two months. I remember just just wanting to dial into the radio to the serious for the games because he was he was a striking guys out.
He was just amazing. And then the guy kind of fizzled out.
That was the early part of that season. He was unbelievable. Yep, yeah, who could forget all right? So, for those who are new to this mark, and I have been doing this for more than a decade, we do a Q one, we do a Q two, we do a Q three, which is essentially and I get it. We're a little past the eighty one game mark, so we kind of
missed it precisely. But we're still in the eighties here in the early eighties of games played, all Star breaks, still a week and a half away from Major League Baseball and we will do a Q three And essentially the point of this is not, hey, look at all these stats. The point of all this is, look at these stats. Is there something predictive about these moving forward that can help us in our bettings? Some are going
to be just you know, moments in time narratives. But as we go from Q one to Q two, I think now these stats are much more robust, and we can say sustainable or unsustainable. That's the name of this game. And we crescendo to the more proprietary stats. We will get to first fives that will be preceded by umpires. Mark is a unbelievable resource of historical umpire data. So we'll look at the twenty twenty four umpire data and we'll sort of cross check it with Mark's historical ones.
Then we'll do the first five stuff, and we'll also do first inning numbers for pitchers because people like betting first innings first. As always though, Mark, and thank you by the way, let me just say, because if we count these all up, this is god it We kinda have done like almost forty of these. It's just incredible.
Spending the best years of our lives talking about quarterly baseball. You know what, I wouldn't want to be anywhere else actually on a beat to July third?
Why not? Okay?
And can we start with that before we get into the stats. How come Major League Baseball is this stupid mark? It's July third, it's a Wednesday. Every Wednesday has full day major League Baseball. Why just because it's July fourth tomorrow, did they decide we're not going to have any day games on July third? Why?
It's the weirdest thing.
You think they'd want to have more because I think they'll probably have some day games tomorrow on a Joy four, so it could give the guys, give the guys a little bit of extra rest. I don't understand that, And I don't understand in the summertime. And I love the Tuesday night card. It's a full card, but there's usually no day games on a Tuesday. So like, I mean, instead of betting on baseball, we're betting on euro Soccer.
So I mean really like, like like putting it from a revenue perspective, if I think that that having a couple of day games on a Tuesday would be in the summertime, would be a good idea, Gil.
We had a we had a tweet this morning where someone's like, well, because they want everybody, we want all these ballparks to have fireworks. That's why they're putting all the games at night. I go, but yeah, but there's day games on July fourth, So like that doesn't make any sense. Just flip them then, right, have some day today and those play night tomorrow and vice versa. I was saying early. I was joking on the on the
radio side this morning. I was like, it's like Major League Baseball, like Rob Manfred's like, for god's sake, we have all the fans we need. Let's not do anything to get more fans.
Oh, it's so it's so aggravating because they do a lot of things.
First of all, let's let's pop up MLB dot Com. Wonderful way to take in baseball. You can watch four games at one time with different feeds audio. If you like the Braves radio broadcasters, which I really like, you can listen to them when you're betting a Braves game. So their technology is really getting me and from a from a data guy, from a processing guy, uh, the
stuff that comes from their APIs is incredible. So good, good, for them on that, but like, hey guys, let's have a ball machine to try to.
Get as consistent with the balls as possible.
You know that that would be up the first and it's like, you know, try to trying to listen to what people are saying, you know, the whole the rollball up thing. And I think we went off on that on one of the shows we did this year, because there's a pivotal call. It seems like in every game that you watch, every game that you bet, and if the guy misses the call, it changes the whole course of the bet Gill and so like, I think that that's got to be looked at really hard.
It's you know, it's like I even said this day also, which is you know, we've we've gained so much attention for these monthly Major League Baseball Most Wins markets that we've been betting on a numbers game and we just hit the Astros one for those on the podcast side that missed on the radio side, we just hit the Astros in June. And it's like it's gained so much interest with listeners and it's almost like Rob Manfred would call the sports books, for god's sakes, take those markets
down there's too much interest being generated. We can't have more fans. We're all saturated.
It's insane because they have such a They've got a really good product and it's just a matter of marketing at it correctly.
At least of course I'm biased because that's this is all I do, is baseball gals.
Dude. Obviously I lived that life for years, as you know, and when you do baseball every day, it is all immersive. And I always bring up the you know when Ray Allen this is for whatever reason, this is the one that I always remember. When Ray Allen hit that amazing shot for the Miami Heat against the Spurs and the finals in twenty thirteen, I was like unaware that the game was even on because you're so immersed in some random baseball bet. Oh I've got the Indians again, you know,
at that time against the Tigers. It's much more important to me this night than this NBA fun. So that's the life we choose, and I love you said. We've chosen to chosen to use our best years for doing these Q these Q Q one, Q two and Q three pots. So let's start with you know, just in terms of money, making. This is a bizarro exercise. If you bet these teams, every one of these teams in every game, if they were a dog, you know, one hundred dollars to win more if they were a favorite
laying to win one hundred dollars. The number one money making team in baseball thus far this year is who do you have?
Mark? Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland Guardians, And that makes sense, right they are. They have been unbelievably consistent from month to month. Third best record in marsh April, third best record in May, not quite as good in June, but still the bullpen is just so solid. The bullpen just holds and saves so many games. You'd be up almost eighteen units betting the Guardians every single game this year. The next closest I have is Milwaukee and Baltimore, who are twelve units up
in eleven and a half respectively. So think about that difference. I mean, that's a six unit difference between the Guardians and the second place team.
Yeah, they've definitely been a better's friend if you I know, there was a lot of guys at the network, gill for at your network that were high on the Guardians, and unfortunately I wasn't one of the guys high on the Guardians, so they haven't been friendly to me, but for other people they've been they've been super friendly. They are the one other team that's for me between the Brewers and the Orioles is the Phillies' they're up there.
To Gill I got okay, So I'm looking at Covers. We were talking about this before we went on air. We should sort of pull back the curtain. So for many many years when Mark and I did these shows, Covers was the source for much of this stuff. I have not found their data quite as and I love them, don't get Don't get me wrong. They've been great to us here with these stats, but I have not found their their baseball data as reliable in the last couple
of years, especially with the umps. So I'm getting I'm still using Covers now for these macro ones for full full season, both money line and run Line, which we'll get to. But then for the other stuff I'm going elsewhere. So just for this is this one is still getting from Cover, so I have it it Covers. It's Cleveland eighteen units up, Milwaukee twelve units up, Baltimore eleven and a half units up, then the Yankees, who have just completely turned to the bad They're now up almost ten units.
The Washington Nationals at five, followed by the Phillies and the Royals. That's how it is listed. It covers.
So that's interesting. Yeah, no, no, i'd see it.
So I use and I want to give these guys a shout out because you say, you know the guy.
He's a good guy.
Yes, killersports dot com great, great information. As a guy who's just delved into this for over twenty years, I've got to give props to killersports dot Com. And and that's so these are the numbers that I'm using from there, and it goes Guardians, Brewers, Phillies Orioles, Nationals, Yankees, Royals. Okay, that's that's how how mine goes well.
And as part of that is also which which lines are you using? Are using a closing line? Whe which books are using it? So that that would explain some of it too.
Well exactly exactly if you're risking or got to know, oh that's right to win. That could be something else that they're doing too, but I think for the most part, you know they're they're they're pretty close to each other.
Gil, Yeah, No, that's right what you said. If people missed what Mark meant there. For the favorites, oftentimes I say it's risking more than one hundred to win a hundred, but really in this case, it's probably risking one hundred to win less than a hundred. So that also makes a difference between sites the worst, just in terms of this bizarro exercise, if you bet them one hundred bucks every time as a dog or as a favorite, and they're a dog almost every time, the White Sox, no surprise.
Good god, I think the surprise is by how much though the White Sox would have hemorrhaged you at this point. By the way, if you're betting the White Sox every single day, something's wrong with you or you're doing this wrong. I should say something is wrong with you. Probably do The White Sox would have you down twenty eight units. Probably don't do that. The next worst is the Marlins. You'd be down half that fourteen units. So the White Sox are at this insane pace of hemorrhaging people money.
By the way, I've got I've got them down thirty point oh two units, and then the next team seventeen. The next team seventeen point seven.
So that's one.
And I've I've kind of have mixed so far for the season with my preseason stuff. But the White Socks two get have the worst record in baseball. I think that's gonna cash. I still have them with like an eighty three percent chance. Of course, now Marlins team is pretty abysmal, and so are the Rockies, but I think that I think that White Sox to have the worst record in baseball is still looking pretty good here.
Gil.
Yeah, and by the way, we do home road splits on this, there's not much interesting things here because Cleveland, you know, Cleveland's eighteen units most you know, twelve of them, eleven and a half of them are at home, six and a half of them are away. And then in the White Sox as the bottom twenty one of those are on the road, seven loss at home. So kind of what you would expect. I guess, not that there's
much to read into that. I guess the real headline here is Mark, is that typically when we do this exercise, I guess the Nationals are the interesting one, right. The Nationals are thirty nine and forty six, Yet because they cash so often as a dog, they found their way into the top five or seven, depending you where did you have the Nationals in?
I think they are number five, okay, so we both have them at five six, right, so Covers and you both have them at five, So the Nationals are the one.
This is what makes us exercise interesting is when you see a team that is not so good in the real standings. That makes better is a lot of money still, and the Nationals are that one exception. But at the bottom, right, the the inverse of that would be a really good team that loses a lot because they're always favorites, and we simply do not have that this year. Right. The closest we come to that is the Cubs are the sixth worst per Cub.
Braves are pretty bad.
The Braves are forty forty six and thirty seven and they're minus units.
So that's that. I believe me.
I know because I've been high on the Braves all year, and that's one that I've missed on gil.
Oh. See, Now that's a big discrepancy because Covers haves them losing eight units, they're still a they'd still be a top ten worst per Cover, So that's a bit of a difference. But still that is a great example. But I guess we don't have like, we don't have one in the bottom five. Let's put it that way. This year, as far as the run lines are concerned, and everybody who's listened to all you know, all these q pods in past years, no a de facto power rating.
As I like to call it again, if you win on the run line as a favorite, you are covering the one and a half. If you win as a dog, oftentimes you lose, but you only lose by one run, so you still cash. The number one run line team in all of baseball.
Is Mark I got the Orioles, Gill.
It's the Orioles, the Oriols by quite a bit. Actually, Cleveland and the Yankees third, excuse me, second and third.
Yeah, let me. I've got the Yankees at number two.
Yeah. So, but Cleveland and the Yankees are close. Baltimore by far right, eighteen and a half units to the positive. Then, according to Covers, Cleveland thirteen point sixty five the Yankees twelve point six. The worst run line team there is there is many worse than the White Sox. By the way, the Marlins are the worst on the run line you'd be down seventeen point nine units per covers. What do you have?
I'm looking at the how the Tigers are bad on mind.
It Covers has them as third worst. They have the Marlins worst, cub second worst, Tigers third worst. Interesting, but that's so that's the thing. When you get to betting lines difference and how you are calculating these as we described earlier, then then there does become a difference. But we see the we see how there's generally the same
group of teams. I guess the question for you and all of that, because then it gets much more precise here after we do this, the question for you is which of these teams that are towards the top or towards the bottom that might be surprising? Do you think is actually a portent of things to come? Like Seattle? Right, Seattle is a really bad run line team. Like they're good,
like you know, they've they started out really solid. Now of course they've come back a bit, but in terms of the money line, you're still winning a tick of money on them in the aggregate, but on the run line they stink. They're the fifth worst per Covers.
Yeah, that's an interesting look, and I think that they probably, just off the top of my head, they probably want a lot of one run games right home. It's like we're the balls, talk about dead balls. That's where balls go to die. Tea Mobile and.
I gosh, it seems like I don't know you.
You've always been a big draw parlay guy, but it seems like if you're a draw parlay guy, let's let's go to Tea Mobile Park in Seattle for the second leg of the draw parlay. Seems like those games going to extra innings all the time.
Go that and it checks out. On their one run record, they are eighteen and nine, the best by percentage. No, but they certainly have the most one run wins in all of baseball this year, eighteen and nine by percentage. I suppose that the uh the there's one better than them? Where did I see that? Did I see a percent Yeah?
The Rays are actually better percentage wise, they're sixteen and seven, But the Mariners eighteen and nine and one run out comes this year, including six, six and three in extras. By the way, in addition to that, you.
Talking about sustainable, you know that racing might be sustainable. It's like for somehow, you know, cash is able to cast the one run lines managing that team all the time, and it seems like that's a pretty consistent thing.
I just off the top of my head.
I'd have to do the research, but Tampa Bay winning one run games is not a surprise to me.
Gil.
Yeah, well, that's interesting. So the Rays, who are in fourth place in the East, only the Blue Jays are worse. They're forty three and forty two in the standings as of this morning, they're minus fifty two in run differential. But because you get the best of that one run outcome at sixteen and seven, they are where they are. In fact, that's everything to their season so Far's.
They're still there. About the Rays, it's like, yeah, oh, and you know, and I was high on them to begin with. To start the season, I kind of wrote them off. But they they're like they're they're kicking around there. They couldn't make the playoffs, that's that's something that could happen.
Yeah, So the Rays. By the way, going back to what we're talking about, the Rays, you'd only have lost for the full year, you'd only have lost two point six units of you Again, the Barzarrow exercise of one hundred dollars in all eighty five of their game so far. But on the run line, you would be down six point three units because again the one run thing, and in part of those one run games, they're going to be favorites, so they're not covering. At the same time.
Let's go to something because I don't know there's a lot there. Let me do starting pitchers. This just happens to be the stats on you know which starting pitchers when they take the hill have happened if you just back them every single game. In a bizarre exercise, who's made the most money. The Washington Nationals Trevor Williams is number one on this. If you had back Trevor Williams in every single one of his starts, you'd be up eleven point six units. Now where it gets interesting to
me is the next one. Because this is a Cleveland Guardians pitcher that I you know, in my month long bets in both March April and in May. March April being one month because March just had a few games. But you got Tyler Biby as number two, you'd be up nine point three units on him. Ranger Suarez of the Phillies is fourth in just terms of money. Mitch Keller of the Pirates would be fourth in terms of
money made. Again, just bizarre exercise. If you just back these guys blindly and then I expect this one to show up. Alec Marsha the Royals would be fifth. By the way, even more surprising than that is sixth Uh when you see Kyle Harrison of the Giants. There Giants are ten and four in games that he's pitched. Anyway, just is any of that sustainable? Because to me, the Biby thing is interesting because it gets back to the Guardians.
It's not it's less about Bibby than it is about the bullpen where they're fourteen and three in games he started where it's just like, I don't know how much of that is him. He's been good, but the bullpen is just so good, just holds everything.
Yo.
I like Bibby. Bobby's like in the top twenty for me. So he's I think he's a nice pitcher. I don't you know, he's not Shane Bieber, but maybe Shane Bieber light you know, okay, you got well he said, got Bieber and then you got bibby Bybby Byby Oh.
I don't know. I don't know what just happened. Mark might have had a stroke. We'll check on him, Okay, Mark.
By allusion to baby baby baby oh by justin Bieber in case you oh tanner biby byby bybby bybby Oh.
Baby, how does that go? By Bieber?
Baby baby baby baby baby?
Oh thought you'd all we've been mine and so like maybe maybe with bob he hey baby byby bye bye baby Bobby, Oh, don't you know you're the base winner? Number nine doesn't have the same ring to it, but same idea.
Wow, we have a drop on a numbers game where we had Mark quoting snoop lyrics that we that we lay down every time. Could you would you like to rehearse that or recite that for everybody real quick? Oh?
Because I have my mind on my money and my money on my mine.
Bark borchard everybody, well done. Okay, This is, by the way, the worst pitcher in baseball in terms of that same exercise, if you happen to back them in all their starts every single game. Chris Flexen of the White Sox White Sox are two and fourteen when he's taking the hill you'd be down nine point eight five units. And then I just want to give a shout out to the number two person, because the number two person got me
my Astros month long win. On Sunday night, Andrew Heeney of the Rangers, the second biggest hemorrhager of all starting pitchers in baseball this year in terms of money, actually pitched well against the Orioles on Sunday night when I needed him to an act of God. Thank you, Andrew heeny But there you go.
So anyway, one thing I want to say about Heeni is I think he's got some good like underlying numbers, Like based on past under nine underlying numbers for him, he's the base winner number twenty two, so I think that he'll move up. You're talking about like a flexing is awful. It seems like Flexen is never flexing his muscles and he's like, I'm betting against that guy. It seems like every time. And but hai hany, I'm seeing some regression to the good based on what he's done.
Yeah, his stats are fine, Like I'm looking at his fan grafts page. I'm talking about Heini now, his stats are completely fine. They're not spectacular, but there's nothing horrible about them at all. They're right down the middle. By the way, you remember that half season where everybody thought Flexen was unbelievable.
You know, I bet I personally been an over over a game in spring training when he pitched and.
He was lights out. Yeah, and and like there was.
Like over nine a game it was like two to one, and they he pitched against some other guy that was a clown Urania, Jose Urania, And this is a.
Good one to bet over, you know.
And one of those guys were good and and and the other guy that the teams put their put their best men out there too, So you know, it just goes to show you that.
On a one.
That's why I think that month long bet for you is such a good idea when you when you can bet them, uh, because it's like, there's gonna be a day where you're gonna bet against flex and he's gonna go out there, he's going to strike out six and he's going to look like he did that day in spring training, and you know, just because they're they're major league pitchers, they can have that that upside. But so far he's he's really shown nothing guilt.
Yeah, the the I just want to say this again for the monthly markets because we talked about on radio, but I'm not sure how many people here on the podcast side. I think it's a pretty high percentage of the beating the book listeners that don't listen to the radio side of things. So I just want to say this about these monthly markets. So in March slash April, I remember March had a few games scheduled. Bajor League Baseball season started in that month. Draft Kings, william Hill, Caesars,
and Circa. Those three shops put up the most wins in that month. And I happened the day before the baseball season. One of the beautiful things about baseball still is so many different things you can bet on. And so the day before I don't think there was any tennis,
so I wasn't distracted by handicapping. I just started diving into these apps and they had most wins for March April, and I was like, this is awesome because it's not you know, baseball seasone hundred and sixty two games, so you know you're gonna if you're not Mark Borchard and you're not you know, someone who's fully immersed. Day to day, you're gonna drift. But a and any given day, obviously, variants can happen, as you say, even Chris Flexing can show up. But a month long bet is so great.
And we had a ball March April, uh famously one out away from cashing a sixty five to one on the Guardians, where our sole crushed by a home run by Victor Carratini, one out a way of the Astros that should be noted to beat us Guardians in May, I had at sixteen to one. They were two game shy. They happened to go two and five against the White
Sox and Rockies that month, which sunk me. And then the Astros at twenty five to one at Caesar, seventeen to one at Circa they cash at Circa outright the dead heat with the Orioles at William Hill Caesars because there's different rules. Dead heat at william Hill. Caesar's tiebreaker at Circa is fewest, a fewest losses if you have the same amount of wins followed by best run differential.
And so it's just so so great that length. And in July we have the Kansas City Royals Kansadity Royals started out, you know what, dyl.
That's so funny that you bring that up, because I was I was like, on what plan? So yesterday I was looking at and I'm here in Arizona. If in case you guys forgot, undisclosed in Arizona. But the odds were up at Caesar's for the most wins in July, and the Royals were plus seven hundred. They were the favorite, and I thought, on what planet is this team the favorite?
Because I vehemently disagree.
With you on it, but I think the point is that we're making it. I think it's the cool bet.
Let me let me interject. The reason that they're now the short shot seven to one is because I said it on the show, and so I got them at seventeen.
To one, and hey, and that's that's that makes sense.
Yeah, we completely moved it. And it closed at Circuit plus six fifty, and it closed at Caesar's at seven to one. And even I would tell you, well, you shouldn't bet it at that number, but that's why it ended up at that number.
The reason it's crazy. You know, I was like, that's the what's my thought?
Because I ran the simulations, and I'm like, I came up with my percentages and I'm like, what plan I go. I wonder in the back of my mind, I was like, I wonder if Gill bet bet the Royals, and I meant to ask it that before the show, But since you brought it up, I mean, that's that's what happened. That's what happened there, because no planet does the probability make sense the way it was priced yesterday at Caesars.
Yeah, that's you know, we had tons of people betting into it once I sort of announced it on air and not sort of, but did announce it on air, And that's I guess. When you have the success from month to month that we have had, even flirting with it even when we were winning, that's gonna happen. So
we'll see. And the reason behind it, by the way, is not because I think the Kansas City Royals are the greatest team that's ever lived, but the schedule is so easy, and yeah, like the Astros in June, though, I have a bit of contrarian thinking with this bet as well, which is the Astros had the second to fewest amount of games scheduled in the month of June, the Mets had the fewest. It ended up being a Mets Astros series, with the Orioles being the other one.
The Oriols had the most game scheduled. Those three teams ended up vying for the title of June. My reasoning again on taking the Royals. Royals have the second fewest games in July. Part of my reasoning is at CIRCA, the first highbreaker is fewest losses, and it's contrarian thinking because you will grab you Normally you would say, wow, who has the most game schedule? All the Mets do. It's twenty seven even in an All Star week. They literally have a game schedule and every every day besides
the All Star Break the Mets. So the average person immediately thinks, well, I got to go to those teams to they have more opportunity to win. But with that tiebreaker rule at CIRCA, I don't think you should shy away from a team with a really easy schedule that plays four fewer games because if you can get the wins, you will automatically win the tiebreaker. And that's exactly what happened with the Astros. So part of that is betting theory as well.
Yeah, no, but to your point, it's a great bet.
And that's why I was fooling around with it yesterday because what I like to do is I like to put like five guys on one like an MVP market or five guys at a cy young market and kind of group them together and you usually can get plus money.
But you know, with that particular bet, there was like I.
Think eight teams that I could Orioles, Braves, Guardians, Twins, Pirates, Cubs, Raised Backs, and Blue Jays. We grouped them together and and you know, dutched it the right way. It's plus one sixty one. That's a fun bet. You know, that's
a great bet. So uh, I think that that's something to kind of kind of look forward to down the down the road there did they still have a twenty six point one percent household on them, so they could do better, you know, but maybe we'll get some we'll get some more competition there, I think down the line. But props to these sports books for putting them out there. Really cool bet.
Without a doubt, And I don't want I don't know why DraftKings bowed out after more April, so it's only now it's only circa and William Hill Caesars that have done it in May and June and July.
So anyway, that's that's so funny though that that that that about that royal thing, because.
I was just like, did I do that? That's the erkle thing? Did I do it?
Is all this?
Let's let's go to umpires umpires. Now, this is courtesy of vsin dot com. How about that Vegas Stats and Information Network with great umpire stats. Now, uh, these are the most reliable over umpires thus far this year. We're going to cross check this with Mark's historical data. So when this particular, when these particular folks have been behind home plate calling balls and strikes, the overs have hit
at an unbelievable percentage. The number one over empire thus far this year is Andy Fletcher fourteen twelve excuse me, fourteen two and one. Remember you can obviously push on an over to total fourteen two and one to the over. Fourteen out of seventeen have gone over one push. Only two have gone under when he was behind home plate.
Bruce Dreckman thirteen and three to the over, Lance Barrett eleven and six, Mark Ripperger eleven six and one, and Lance Barksdale at ten and eight to the over, so Fletcher Dreckman, Barrett Ripperger, and then a tick to the over on Barksdale. Any of those match historically.
Lance Barksdale's number three from a base winner umpire er, if you will. And what I do is this is this goes back from the first game of twenty twenty two, so it's taken the twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three and then up to date twenty twenty four season, and you can actually come up with an e er based on walk percentage and strikeout percentage.
And these guys have a decent sample. I think Barksdale.
We're talking about how seventy three games that we're looking at and he's and and there's not going to be like a huge thing.
It's not like, oh.
He's gonna you know, if the totals nine, he's in an umpire the game the total should be eleven. It's a little bit less or more subtle than that, but still nine percent. He's nine percent from a run expectation standpoint based on those strikeout percentage and walk percentage, and that makes a difference. So like instead of it's if the totals eight instead of eight. It should be eight point eight, right, and so it does make a difference. Barksdale is is a over umpire that my top three
over guys. I'll give you the top wagner, Alfonso Marquez, Barksdale and Carlos Tores are the four from a walk percentage, strikeout percentage standpoint that would I would not bet an under those guys. Let's just say that I would not bet an under if those guys were were were doing the game, and.
That that's super actionable, right, Like this is super actionable again? Where do you find your umpire assignments now that stat fox is not around? I know I used to.
Umpire umpire crew used to do it, but for me, I actually have a script that I run every every night after you know, and the first base umpire becomes the home plate umpire and I put that into my model. But uh uh, they it's really tough, like some of these sites are, you know, rest in peace, stat Fox that was a good site man, talk about two thousand and six. Those guys were around in two thousand and six.
So it's it's kind of sad because for the show I was going over there because there's some stuff I do for the show at stat Fox, and stat Fox is no more so rest in peace, Good job guys, and too bad that you're not there.
Anymore boring out of forty for stat Fox Dr Gangstaline. So if you can find reliable umpire assignments, if you're not Mark Borchard and you can find them, it maybe it you know, listen, maybe it takes you off a game, I would say, is the best way to do it. If you have like an under on Andy Fletcher behind home plate or in the case of the crosscheck we
just did. Historically, if you have an under an a Lance Barksdale game, maybe you should think twice, is what I'm saying, because and I don't know that we you know, we haven't looked at ballparks with these guys this year. But if Lance Barksdale is historically historically speaking in overump, and here he is again as an overump, it's ballpark resistant. It doesn't matter. His strike zone might be the size of a thimble, and that's why these games are reliably over.
On the other side this year to the under minimum seven games behind home plate, let's say Chris Conroy two seven and one, so seven, So basically seven to two and one to the under. John Bacon five and two to the under, Jim Wolf six and three to the under, Jeremy ray five and three to the under, Alex Tosi thirteen and four to the under. That's actually the winner. Excuse me, DJ Rayburn eleven and four to the under. That's actually second most under. Also Jonathan Para seven and four,
seven four one to the under. There you go. Oh and one more sorry, John Libk eleven and four to the under. So actually one, two and three are Alex Tosi and then Libka and Rayburn. Any of those historically said something.
Did you see, say Chris Conroy, Yeah, that was.
The first one. I said, seven too and one.
Yeah, okay, yeah, that guy is number three, uh base winner. On to the underside. Bill Miller, of course number one, and Doug Adding is number.
Two all time. Yeah. Yeah, so Chris Miller just strike sounds insane. I was like, I mean, yeah, strike.
Yeah. So these guys must have these massive strike zones, right like it's just like, oh, that's two inches off the blade or whatever it is. Eh, they'll call a strike. By the way, your parting words, we never got a chance for you to say goodbye to Angel Hernandez. Would you like to say anything?
I'm glad the guy's gone. I mean, that's good, you know, it's so great.
All right? Should we do first fives? And first let's do first fives?
All right? Sounds good?
All right, first fives. Let's see here first fives and I'm gonna do these at vsin dot com and Visa dot com corroborates with the other first five site. I see. And again the numbers are going to be slightly off in terms of the profit and loss, because again it depends what are you using. Are you using closing line, opening line? Are you using one? From one sportsbook to another? But here are the top three most profitable first five teams in all of baseball this year. On the money line,
Number one by a mile, the Philadelphia Phillies. You'd be up twenty plus units on the Phillies, And that makes sense if you think about their starting pitching. I might be the best top three in all of baseball three deep on a team. Phillies are up twenty point six units if you bet them fifty five twenty three and seven is their first five record. Remember seven, you can push obviously, in first five, fifty five, twenty three and seven. Next closest is the Cleveland Guardians. You'd be up nine
point one five units on them. They're not even halfway there to the Phillies, but still great. Baltimore is third, eight point sixty five units to the positive. And here is where it gets interesting, and this is why we do this exercise. The fifth place team is the Yankees. Can you tell me what the fourth place team is?
And that's the White Socks, isn't it?
Yes, which we I believe we talked about in Q one. Also right where we're like, this is what makes baseball betting so fascinating A team as crappy and we just talked about them on the money line. They are hemorrhaging money. Mark had them thirty units down on the money line in a full game of baseball. They're having the worst season ever. But if you bet them on the first five, it's the fourth most profitable team. So again, what's the takeaway? Their bullpen is hot garbage.
Yeah, and there's you know, talk about a variety of betting that's been available. We have a guy in the show, I'm gonna plug my own show, Gilha. Please the MLB show Bet a sponsor by bet Us, every day at
eight am Pacific. We have a guy that plays something called the double result or you know, if you played in soccer, it's halftime full time and you can actually you can actually bet the White Sox first half and then to lose the game, which is a nice a nice price from a risk versus reward standpoint, a good opportunity and just kind of for me, And I'm kind of there, like almost, I'm getting there, maybe seventy percent of the way to just doing a five inning handicap
and then a rest of game handicap and then for for as far as the presentation on a daily daily basis, combining those. But I think that there's a lot to uh, the five inning stats. Personally, I think that, uh, you know, some guys are that look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They're down at the bottom from a from a profit standpoint on first five, but they they historically have been better in the second half of the game. So I
think that there's something there. Uh. It takes a lot of work to you know, in all in all honesty, it takes a lot of work to put those together. But I'm getting close skills so, but but I think that I think the five inning bet has a lot of potential.
Personally, I'm fascinated by the way. Shame on me for not plugging your bet Us show at the top. I'm glad you did right there the whiteside that that industry. What your what your buddy does there where he bets White Sox first half and then he fades him second half. Right, First of all, how many books is that available in?
You know it's available where I bet. It's available on a lot of books. It's available at bet us. Okay, I might as well give them a plug while I'm at it. And uh, it's it's where I where I bet a couple different outlets where I bet it's available so you can get it. And props builder has it too. If your book has props Builder, you can bet that.
It's called a.
Double result double result.
It could be sometimes our halftime full time because it comes over from the soccer market and it's a cool bet. It's a good a good thing to have in your arsenal.
And halftime is through five basically in baseball. But you know that White Sox thing. I wonder how many times that's hit because again, their record this year in you know, your normal newspaper standings in real life, they're twenty four and sixty three. They're horrible, twenty four and sixty three. Their first five record, oh my god, is thirty five, forty one and eleven. So like again, you're winning your fair share. How many times those have probably hit together?
I mean, I'm guessing, just off the top of my head, it's got to be fifteen to twenty times at least, right, So yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I'm being conservative, probably more than that, So it's probably, yeah, it's probably more than that. Actually, it's probably who knows, it could be. It could be close to thirty times that it's happened anyway, that's what's interesting about that first five. By the way, the worst first five teams on the money line, Oakland
A's are the worst. And now Oklanda's would have cost you twenty three units this year betting them first five second worst. Can you believe this? The Tampa Bay Rays, God bless, and then they come back and they win one run games all the time.
Yeah, And that's why that's the I think that's the reason why you should you should have those I think you should separate the game and into two halves.
Yes, yes, it's two different games. Marlin's right behind them third, nineteen point eight eight units to the negative Angels, fourth, Giants fifth. That doesn't surprise me because of the starting pitching. Those are the four were five worst on the money line first five. By the way, if you cared on the run line first five, this is giving minus a half a run. The Phillies still Phillies still number one, twenty four units up, and Cleveland right behind them also
twenty four units up twenty four point four. Actually, it's the Guardians by a tick twenty four point one two versus twenty four point zero zero. They are far and away. It's not even close. Who's third, who's third? The third place team hasn't even won. Oh no, Nationals are third. On the run line, Nationals would have you up nine units. Nationals and the Royals on the run line. I don't know who's betting run line first five, but some people
are reliably. But if you did it every game, those are the Exercises and the Phillies and the Guardians are blowing away the competition the worst. No surprise, the Marlins, followed by the angels followed by the twins. All of those it would have cost you thirty units. Please don't do that.
And then you're you're getting those stats just to just to control. You're getting them from from Vson, from Visa visent, let's plug Vison dot com.
All we're at it.
I got the I mentioned it that the umpires I'm getting from Vson now and the first five I'm getting from Vson now. I get the first five from somewhere else too, but also from vson dot com.
Okay, so I wanted to complete this thought here.
Yeah, they So the White Socks, believe it or not, they've been ahead in thirty four games after five innings. They've lost sixteen of those. Half of the games they live.
So the answer sixteen. The answer is sixteen.
Okay, so sixteen White Sox opponent like that, that bet plays a lot better than than two or even money, that's for sure.
So that's that might be an idea for everybody, right.
So give me an idea. So, so those sixteen times, what would you say the average price that you probably got on that to hit, it's got to be like a huge plus money.
It's like six hundred and seven yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean it's they're the team. Opposite team usually is right right about plus six hundred to eight hundred.
So's so so let's just be conservative and call it six to one. Let's not let's be right in the middle. Let's say it's seven to one sixteen times. Good god, I mean, what's that quick math? That's uh, that's ninety six that's what one hundred and twelve units? Yeah, good god?
Pretty crazy.
By the way, how many people do you think listening to this podcast, that's the only thing they're going to bet after this? That's all. They're like White Sox verse five White Sox to lose double what is it called double result?
It's not a bad idea with that team.
That team's that bullpen has been They've been the worst bullpen by my ratings the whole season. I don't know if they've ever gotten out of the cellar.
So that's incredible. That is that's an interesting thing. All right, should we do first first innings? Let's close it out with first innings. This is proprietary. This I if people wanted to find this, I wouldn't even know where to point them, would you.
Yeah, yeah, you know if you're looking.
I think you do you do picture wOBA in the first inning.
I'm doing. Yeah, what I'm doing is picture oppose. Yeah, the pictures opposing on base percentage. So what the batters are doing against the picture?
Yeah?
Obp yeah yeah, no, no.
You you know.
One of the things with fangraps is they have a thing called split leader boards, and you can go there and just just filter it down for first inning.
Okay, I didn't even know they had that.
That's pretty much all you have to do, you know. You you show all filters first inning and then run it and it's it's it's pretty cool.
It's it's a it's a good, good source.
All right. So I did minimum fifty plate appearances here against the absolute worst picture in the first inning this year is Joe Musgrove for ninety yeah four nine on base against.
You went fifty plays appearances.
I did go fifty. Should I go more?
So?
Now there's a guy that has forty two Seeksto Sanchez. I just wanted to throw him out there. I love the man sixty he's at five thirty seven.
Oh my god, at fifty. I've got Joe Muskgrove the worst at four ninety one against Austin Gomber for fifty two against Hunter Brown, four thirty eight against Keaton Win of the Giants, four thirty three against then Charlie Morton four to oh eight against Casey Myz, Griffin, Canning and Randy Vasquez the only others north of four hundred on base against.
There's one in there with with he's got what does he got? Forty one total batter's face Walker Buehler for sixty three OBP in the first inning. So wow, I get, I get it's kind of fine to Bethos Dodger game first innings. I admit that I've done that before, but I.
Don't know if that you know.
The thing is, it's like these are stats, like you always make the disclaimer these are descriptive stats, and is it predictive moving forward? But I think, I mean, from a complexity standpoint, it would probably be better to what is their lifetime average in the first inning, because I think that there is some something to that.
Gil.
I do think that there's something to you know, guys get off to a bad start and then they kind of settle in. But like that would be a little bit more complex. I think could do from a predictive standpoint.
Yeah, and I should say, you know, I used to bet first innings yes no, for years and years and years, bet them very profitably. I have not in the last two or three years. And I am told that if I had continued to do to do what I was doing,
then it wouldn't be nearly as profitable. Jason Winingarten and I talk about this because I would bet, you know, when two aces would face each other, I would bet yes runs to score, and that we would get like plus one fifty five on it sometimes right when two aces were facing each other, and it used to be super profitable. You're still getting the same numbers, Jason is telling me. But it's just not coming home nearly as much. But I just want to make the disclaimer, this is
not how we bet them. We didn't. We didn't look at these picture numbers and say, oh, well, just because this guy is that, we're gonna bet this. But for a lot of people it is still fascinating. I just want to point out the pictures the contrary of that, the kind of the converse of that, which is, these are the pictures that do the best in the first inning in terms of on base against and he guesses as to who is the best picture in all of
baseball on base against. It's a theme that we have going that we just talked about.
Arret Crochet one forty three, Garrett.
Croche one forty three. Bang, it's amazing it. Dude is unhittable the first what are you thinking?
Did you have this guy?
You have Chris flex I talked about amazing. Chris Flexen at one eighty three is fourth. Crazy, Chris Flexen is fourth. So the dude that is hemorrhaged. And again, you know it's not his fault right now, all it's not all his fault that his team sucks all around him. So
he's the biggest hemorrhae of all starting pitchers. If you bet in Bizarro every single game he started this year, you'd have lost the most money more than any other pitcher doing that same exercise with And yet he's the fourth best first inning pitcher in all of baseball.
Wow.
Tyler Glass now is second to Garrett Crochet, Aaron Nola third, then Flexen, followed by Raynaldo Lopez. Man. The Mariners have some great starters, Zach Wheeler, Michael Waka Tanner. How Tanner, Biby Mike Michael King and showed a Immanaga closing out the uh the top group. Pretty amazing.
I'm still trying to figure out how Flexen, you know, and looking like like OBP like second inning through fifth, and he's not. He's you think that the guy would be totally horrible. He'd be the you know, and at least the thirtieth worst pictures from an OBP pe standpoint in those innings, and he's not there either.
So it's it's interesting because the deal with that guy. Well, so, but that checks out right, the fact that Flexen and Crochet are there checks out with our first five stuff, which is okay, well, there's an inning where nothing happens when those two guys are on, right, you're putting up a zero basically. So now you're down to four innings where you're going to try to beat the White Sox first five. So it just it just becomes a numbers
game like that. So again, all this stuff is just for you and me anyway, And I believe all the nerdis, you know, the nerd hard o baseball guys listening to the Show and Girls, that kind of stuff is fascinating and really can translate like that white Sox thing. You know, we talk about the ultimate sustainable and non sustainable. That actually seems sustainable to me. That they will continue to be good in the first five and they will continue to suck thereafter.
Right, Yeah, No, it's not a bad thought because offensively they're challenged and bullpen wise they're challenged.
So it's really not a bad look. I don't think.
Yeah, anyway, always interesting, Mark.
Oh, if you want to talk, if you want to talk, bizarre.
World, if that's all you did this year, you you could you could still bet it and be profitable at the end of the season if you lost every game from from here on out.
So oh, I know. Oh if you if you had been betting it all year and you lost every time from now on, you'd still be profitable.
That's right, I think? So yeah, I do, right.
Because you'd only lose what would we decided it was what one hundred and twelve? Yeah, you'd only lose like seventy five eighty more times.
I don't think. Yeah, that's about it. That's about it.
There you go, Wow, that is that is very interesting. Besides that, what's the single biggest takeaway the Umps those ump names that we said Lance Barksdale on the over and then Conroy on the under.
I think that if you guys played Bill Miller and over when Bill Miller's.
The umpire, you're just you're just massa kiss. Don't do it. Just just don't do it. No, I think that I think what we can take.
From from the shows is that there's there's a lot of different things that you have to do to be effective at handicapping baseball.
So I think, for for for me, gil uh.
And one of the beauties, I think that that what you're doing is you're saying, Okay, well, I can't be everything on this. I can't handicap it the way and and you can't because you have so many responsibilities the voice of sports betting for for Vison, that's a hell of a responsibility. So so but you've you've said, hey, this is something that I enjoy, this is something that obviously you're good at. You're you're you're knocking on you won one last month and you're knocking on the door
the other two months. So that would be my takeaway is find something that you love, find something that you enjoy, and just handicap the.
Hell out of it and be really good at it.
I'll pay you money and and call me because I'll be if you're really good at something, I'll pay you to to get your picks.
There you go look at that, and I will absolutely root out reach out rather to Carl Sack. You mentioned Killer Sports Carl Sack, who is a good friend. Carl and I. I used to work with Doctor Bob. I would do baseball for Doctor Bob. Carl would do the NBA as NBA Guru for Doctor Bob. I had a couple great MLB seasons, but I also had a couple sideways ones. He never had a bad season in basketball. He was a totals better. It still is a totals better in the NBA, the best I've ever seen. He
moves markets when he releases his picks. And now he is doing this killer sports site. So I will absolutely get your number to Carl and you guys hook up because you two should know each other. And nice of you to give him a shout out because that site is very Yeah.
No, no, no, you know what I've learning this thing.
You know, when you first get into this industry, you're they're kind of a little defensive and admittedly, I you know somebody that's good, You're like, oh, I'm better than he is, you know, But as you get older and you age, you really appreciate the beauty of the way other people handicap and the site is gorgeous. The database, I know what, all the stuff that's behind that, it's just wonderful and so like like, yeah, I mean if if he reaches out to me, it'll it'll be a happy day for me, Gil.
Yeah. Man, And that's how you and I have not to not to make this corny at the end, but that's how you and I first connected. We were the only two normal human beings and where we were right, So that's something.
Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of defensiveness, I'm better than you and stuff and this, yeah, exactly, and it's it's it's too bad too, because I think that people worked a little bit better collectively. And we're all competitive and sometimes we're stubborn, but I think if people work together we could we could.
Be so much better. But anyway else, my philosophy for the.
Day that is that extends beyond sports betting, right, like if they if you ever see these things on like TikTok or Instagram or whatever. And every once in a while you'll run into this thing. We asked, you know, thirty old people or fifty old people, what's the biggest piece of advice they could dispense to young people and to a man and woman that advice. As always, when I was younger, I stressed and cared and spent way
too much energy on so many meaningless things. And that what you just described, right like this, the animosity that sports betters tend to have with others is just top of list in our little corner of the world, right like that would be the advice. Just like it's so stupid, it's so pointless. So anyway, exactly a bit of advice, a bit of sage wisdom that's redundant.
I think we're getting we're getting to that point where it is I think you know what you know to be serious as you age, you realize, you know, guy, I was kind of an asshole back then, and uh and and not that I ever was a complete jerk, you know, because because we got along all the time. But I think that that really being self aware and being like, hey, you know, I maybe I'm not the best guy. You know, maybe I'm just I'm the twelfth best guy. Maybe there's twelve guys that are better than me.
I want to learn from them, you know.
And I think that I.
Think that there's always an opportunity to learn from somebody, even if they're doing things differently than you.
Go. I think that you were never an asshole, by the way, appreciate that. Yeah, I don't remember you ever being that. I really don't think you've.
Never been an asshole. Leader.
I love you, And my wife loves you too, and and and she's she's kind of a she's kind of a hard judge of character, but she's like, oh, yeah, Gil, he's he's great.
I love Gil.
So thank you so much, thank you, Thank you so much, Lisa. I appreciate it. Uh, Mark enjoy. I really appreciate doing this. We will meet again for Q three. We'll do all the radio stuff stuff in between. Enjoy your Fourth of July.
Absolutely, we're gonna have a hot dog contest on the show tomorrow. I think we're gonna all we're gonna eat hot dogs on the show. So it'll be fun.
Might be our last Fourth of July as a democracy. As a democracy, Mark, so enjoy it eating hot dogs and hamburgers.
Well, you know, in all seriousness.
So I'm gonna plug another one because we had a hot dogg Eating Show betting contest. Bet Us has lines on the Hot dogg Eating Show. We were twenty three and three on last year's show. I can't I can't promise that. I can't promise that this year. But the show in itself is pretty cool. We talk about the different betting markets for the Hot dog Eating Contest and it's it's a fun show.
So know Joey Chestnut this year, so it must be that would mean there's more opportunity.
Right Esper, Wherry and web are the are the three favorites and there yeah, there's there was a there's three guys on the on the show and we all had a different, different choice on who's gonna win. So yeah, it made it handicapping a little bit different for this season, for this for this year year's.
Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Do you watch it? It's kind of disgusting to watch.
Right, Oh, absolutely, especially you know when you when you when you're leveraged on it, when you have a little little action on you, you watch it.
So yeah, Mark, thank you, as always at base Winner, baswinner dot com, the bet Us Show. Where can people find that?
Just go to YouTube, bet us MLB and and we will be there and we will be there every day at eight am.
All right, hopefully there was food for thought. I know there was plenty of That white sox thing is great. Thanks for listening, Enjoy your July fourth, Good luck with all your bet