Tuesday morning, May fourteenth, twenty twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Q one MLB Derivatives. Yeah, nerd out, It's nerd time, It's skill Alexander. This is the longest running sort of series of all the things that we do on the Beating the Book podcast feed. Of course, we do the megapods, and we do the guessing line show,
Vegas Lifestyle, you name it. We do tennis slams. We do lots of things on this feed, but the oldest, the one that is the most ancient, are doing these nerdy baseball pods and we've done them from the beginning with this gentleman, you know him by base Winner. You can follow him at basewinter dot com at base Winner, and of course he does the bet Us Baseball podcast as well on a daily basis Monday through Friday. I believe it is. He'll tell me if I'm wrong. It's
Mark Borchard. Everybody from an undisclosed location somewhere in that does how you doing, Mark?
I'm doing great, Gilly. You know it's a YouTube live show on YouTube. So if you guys want to see more of me, and why wouldn't you go to go to YouTube and search MLB show bet us and you'll find us.
All right. So it's a live YouTube show Monday through Friday. Yes, Monday through Friday, okay, week days. And is it just you or is it someone else with you?
Oh no, no, there's there's there's two analysts and a host. Okay, and I I go Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday. They do give me a day off over there on Wednesday. And I know you wanted me to do the show, your show on Wednesday, and I wouldn't do it.
You wouldn't do it. You wouldn't do it, so so but I would if you really need to be But no, no, no, wait, we need you. I have a day off. So I just want to repeat that thing that I said at the beginning. You and I met in a forum, by the way, illegally we were not allowed like as for members, you were not allowed to talk to each other. But somehow we got it in. We gotta, we gotta exchanged ours there before before we were slapped on the wrist about it. And so you and I have been doing
baseball podcasts since. So we're talking about thirteen years now, mark thirteen.
Good god, Oh it's it's been awesome, Gil, and I've i've jokingly sometimes refer to you as a voice of sports betting, but it's not a joke to me, it's it is reality. You are such a good voice for this industry, and I'm so happy to be able to listen to you when I'm in my car. I mean it, it's just it's an honor. It's an honor to be working with you. Gil.
In all seriousness, you're very kind, I feel likewise, Listen, here's the thing. So what we do on this, we generally we do it at the forty game mark, the eighty game mark, the one hundred and twenty game mark of a Major League baseball season, and you and I this has been a joy to do this with you
all these years. And essentially what it does is it gives us a chance in a very long baseball season to sort of say, this is what has happened Q one, Q two, and it is up to us as handicappers to try to figure out what is just okay, that's great that that's happened, but what is actually predictive among that moving forward? And so we go through a bunch of different things. Let us begin with the most obvious of them or the most sort of rampantly available. This
is widely available at places like covers. Just talking about the bizarro exercise of if you bet on a team every single game, whether they're a favorite or a underdog, who would be the most and the least profitable teams in baseball this year? Who would be the most profitable? Which would be the teams that would cause you to hemorrhage money the most? And this has to do with again what their prices are on a game by game basis. So Mark, we start by saying, who have been the
most profitable here? Again, not everybody's going to be right at the quarter marks. Some are gonna have played thirty nine games, some are gonna play forty two. Right now, what you got in your record is the most profitable team bizarro betting, if you bet them every single game is a favorite dog? Who you got is number one?
Okay, So we used to guess, but now I've cheated for the last two years. I'll admit, Okay, I guess. Okay, so I'll tell you who my guests would have been. My guest would have been your Cleveland Guardians. Yes, and the one that I have with the best record from a profit standpoint at least is Philadelphia Phillies skilled.
Oh okay, so I have Washington as my number one. I have Washington as my number one over ten units. To the positive they're nineteen and twenty, but because they've been a dog so often that they will actually have edged out the Guardians number two, followed by the Yankees and the aforementioned Phillies. That's what I have anyway.
Interesting. Yeah, I guess it depends on what database people are using. But the way I'm looking at a Phillies National Guardians. Either way, they're all profitable, so that's good.
You know what. I think the difference where the difference lies in because I usually say, if you're betting them as a favorite, you're betting them to win a unit, and if you're betting them as a dog, you're betting a unit to win whatever. And I think some of them on the favorite side don't do it to win a unit. Some of them still are just betting the unit to win less than the unit, and I think in that math comes the difference. That's my guest.
Yeah, I no, that would make that would make sense. But they're similarly close and it might be you know, pulling in lines from different books and stuff. That's as simple as that.
That's sure are some disparities, and oh, you're right as well, could be very very much of that as well, all right. And then the biggest hemorrhagers again regardless of Homer Road, if you just bet them every single game thus far this year, this is a little surprising to me. I guess maybe not Miami by a mile, right.
That's what I have? Yeah, yeah, yeah, in a big way. Yeah.
Nineteen units in the red for the eleven and thirty two Marlins, my god, followed by the Houston Astros, which would have been a pretty uh stellar guess because obviously the expectation of Houston heading into the season were large. They're sixteen and twenty five. They would have cost you eleven and a half units. And then it's the White Sox number three, just under ten units, Reds, Angels, Giants, Cardinals,
Rockies also rounding out that list. So Marlins the worst thus far if we did it on home road splits. By the way, for what it's worth, Washington is by far the best away team betting them just blindly away. They edge out in Milwaukee In terms of the best away money line teams, the best home money line team is the Kansas City Royals up five point six five units. Again, when we do this Q one, these are going to be more volatile than if we do Q two Q three,
we'll they'll be more entrenched. And then in terms of the home road splits, in terms of the worst it's at home, it's clearly the Marlins over ten units in the red on the road. It's actually the White Sox edging the Marlins is what I have. So there you go. How about run line? Go ahead?
Mark, I'm sorry, Well, you know, I just wanted to say, you know, this Kansas City Royal team is is an interesting team and that's why I wanted to bring it up because they are saving runs defensively, and I'm going to try to pull that up on my expected Sandy's real fast here, but it's like I think, it's like they've played Okay, so they've played thirty eight games and
they've saved thirty one runs. So that's almost a run of game, and so I don't know, you know, that's a tougher one to predict moving forward, and people measure the defensive runs a lot. You know, there's out's above average on stat Cast, there's Baseball Information Solutions which I use, and there's differences, and then of course there's PA CODA and stuff. But I think that the one thing that I don't think that that sustainable Gill, that that royal.
That's the one that I thought, well, you know, I think there's gonna be some regression.
There is there. I mean, of everything we've just noted, what to you do You look at and you're like, oh, yeah, that's absolutely going to continue.
Ah, the White Sox. I don't like the White Sox at all. I mean, they're just they're a poor team. You I mean, they're starting, pitching's bad, they're hitting is bad, and it just seems like they don't care and and maybe they're just you know, writing the season off. But that's that's the that's the team that doesn't surprise me in the least how bad the White Sox have been.
And yet, for those who listen on the radio side on a numbers game, I famously had the Guardians best record March April. That came down to the last out. We were one out away from hitting a sixty five to one shot on the Guardians to win that bet, and I re upped on the Guardians for May based on their schedule as well, sixteen to one, and the White Sox beat them three out of four this past week, which was brutal for that bet. So they're gonna have to.
You bring up a good point. I mean, even the best teams can lose to the worst teams. I think the Astros lost to the Royal a couple of years back to Astros when they were Juggernauts, they lost to a really horrible Royals team and I think got swept. It was but that happens. So but I was you know that you bring up a good point about the May. You could bet the May market. That's that's cool, That's really cool.
Yeah, DraftKings was the only one that did March April but didn't do May. Circus still did May, and so did William Hill Caesars. By the way, de facto power rating. For those who listened to this series all these years, you know, the run line is essentially that. So instead of we talked about the money line before, this is the run line. So of your favorite you're giving a run and a half if you're a dog in each of these games you're getting a run and a half.
The number one run line team per the money this year is Mark. Who do you have?
I would say the Royal skill.
Interesting because I have the Guardians one and the Nationals two. Royals are fourth.
Hmm, yeah it is that is interesting. You know, where do you where do your numbers? Have the white socks on that? I don't know if I made a mistake.
Or what do you In terms of the run line, the White Socks are the tenth worst.
Hmmm, that's that's it. Maybe maybe I'm doing the sort wrong anyway, but I have the I have the Royals, Uh the best on the run line?
Yeah, Miami is by far the worst on the run line once again, Angels second worst, Giants Boston Texas three four five in terms of the worst on the run line, and again Q one is one thing because we're only forty games in, so it becomes a little more interesting, say Q two, Q three. But that's where it stands right now. The Marlins being so bad both money line and run line, you expect that to continue.
It's an interesting I didn't to begin with. You know the problem with the Marlins is their their offense is really bad. I think think that they're only better than the White Sox by my ratings. And you mentioned you asked me on the show a couple of weeks back, well do the do the Marlins have a chance to have the worst record? I said, now that you know they have the the White Sox and the Rockies and they're they're so poor, and they all they are so poor.
But I ran the simulations yesterday and they've got did Marlins have a ten percent chance to be the worst team in baseball? Which with that pitch, I don't think the pitching is that bad, but I mean that's what the numbers say.
Gil, all Right, pitchers, just that this is a bizarro exercise where if you just randomly bet on a pitcher on a starting pitcher, each and every time that pitcher took the hill, who have been the most profitable this year? Who do you got mark on top of your list?
You know, it's a good question, Gil, I didn't cheat on this one. Actually, Okay, this is.
And this is impossible to guess because essentially what you're saying is, oh, when this guy took the hill, his team just happened to end up having a great record. Obviously he has something to do with it often, but sometimes he doesn't. Tanner Biby of the Guardians. Guardians are eight and one. When he takes the hills, he'd be up six point sixty three units.
You know, I'm looking at Ranger Suarez, Gil, Ranger Suarez has been good.
I got Suarez at number twelve because the Yeah, you're right, the Phillies have been eight know, in the starts that he has had now, he's been a favorite in most of them. So you'd be up six point one four. Oh you know what, Actually I'm looking at the wrong column. You're right, that's you. That's on me. Suarez is fourth, by b is third according to my numbers.
Yeah, you know this Suarez. I just wanted to pause on him real fast because I've always not liked him because his sabermetrics have been poor. But his sabermetrics are good this year, Gil, you know, so I think that that could be sustainable for him if he keeps it up.
Because he's going he's going further into games now than he used to. Remember he used to be the five inning guy, Suarez.
And now he's got great command. His his command's really good. His his strikeout percentage is thirty percent better than average, so you know, you just I'm just not used to seeing the advanced numbers. So good on Suarez. And he's got a base winner era of two point four to eight, which is which is nice.
Yeah, so apologies on that. So it is again in the order of money made.
Pardon me.
Fifth is Chris Paddock of the Twins. Twins are six and one. When he's taken the hill, he would have gotten you just under five units to the positive. Suarez is fourth, Philly's eight and oh when he took the hill, you'd be up over six bucks with him bybe of the Guardian standard bybe six point sixty three units to the positive. He's number three, Guardians eight and one when he's taking the hill. Alex marsh of the Royals mark
Royals six and oh when he's taken the hill. You'd be up almost seven units to the positive when Alec Mars is taking the hill. And number one Trevor Williams of the Natties Nationals are eight and one when he's taken the hill. So excuse me, part in eight and one. Now let me see if I can get that again. Yeah, six and one, pardon me, So you'd be up eight point seventy one units. So for what that's worth, right, is there anything to that for any of those guys?
I mean, the Suarez thing is interesting. Trevor Williams is in it because I bet against this guy, Trevor Williams, and I've missed obviously because he's he's won a lot more than he's lost. But you look at his era, it's one point nine to six gil his component era the way I do it is four point one five. So that's a big gap there. So I would say that that would not be sustainable.
How about Trevor Rodgers talking about the Marlins and how they've hemorrhaged. The Marlins have five guys in the bottom five, geez, Trevor Rodgers, Marlin's to eight when he has taken the hill, so you'd be down exactly eight dollars. He was a dog in each of them. He any of the Rangers is in there. So is fat of the of the Diamondbacks. Fat or fot is how it was actually pronounced, I believe.
But you've got for the Marlins fourth and fifth. You've also got aj Puck at fourth worst, and then you have Lozarno fifth worst Marlins are zher and four with Puck on the hill one in five pardon me, with Lozardo starting, so you'd also, yeah, go ahead.
You look at the worst guy from a from a component standpoint, a J. Puck.
I don't know.
They must have put him on the shelf because his ERA is nine point two too, but his component e er is eight point two one. Just a terrible I mean both both numbers. And I didn't think he was that bad going into the year, So maybe there's an
injury there for him. They do have this. The one thing about Miami, they have Cabrera and Munos and and Lozardo's component stats have been better than than an average pitcher, at least you could say, so they have some some salvageable parts there in the starting pitching, but they have some some guys that are that are brutal to Gil.
Yeah, and to the extent I don't know what. So when we get to the point of, okay, how does this help us handicapping anything? In the pictures there, you're saying Suarez is interesting. That's the one.
Yeah, that's Suarez is his uh uh, he's interesting to me and you know, I'm kind of kind of looking through this as far as like, uh, you know the guys who have lost money, and I'm looking at Yamamoto and that you'd have lost money playing you know the Dodgers Yamobe there. Yeah, you Shouldobo Yamamoto. And I think that guy got He was one of the I love watching that guy pitch, the way he can locate and everything. So I think that Yamamoto I wouldn't read into those numbers,
at least the profit loss numbers too much. I don't think he's the real And.
Last night was a great example, right was it? Last night was on the hill at at and T where he gave up the three run shout to Matos. Other than that, he was pretty stellar though.
You know, he's so fun to watch man, that guy's really fun.
The nice part about having you for the umpires is that you have historical data on this these thus far the most reliable over umpires thus far this season. Now you can find these assignments at a couple places. I always bring up stat Fox. I know you have an example also, where do you go to look at umpire assignments?
You know, Umpire Crew tweets it out but if you guys, I mean, if you want to take an extra step, you could just look at the box score from the previous night. So you're not going to know who the umpire is for that first game, but you will if they're playing an extended series or really the all series. Once that first game goes, they rotate, the first base empire moves to home plate, so the night before it would be the first base umpire from the night before would be doing today's home plate gilt.
Yeah, and it's really incoming, especially if you're a totals better. But really, if you're better at all, knowing if there's any tendencies with these umpires is such a huge thing. And up until this point these numbers have been very widely available. Now we start to get into a little more proprietary. We'll get to five innings and first innings
coming up. But this is great to have mark because he has historical numbers so thus far this year, Paul Clemens six games behind home plate, Colin balls and strikes six overs, Andy Fletcher five of seven have gone over when he's been behind home plate, and Blakeney five of
five have gone over him behind home plate. The other ones which are four out of five pardon me sorry, getting over nail lists, Bruce Dreckman, Adrian Johnson, Lazaro Diaz, there's a boy, Las Diaz, Daniel Blino, all four out of five have gone over, and then Rippercher Brian Walsh and Tony Rendozzo four of four have gone over when they've been behind home plate. Now these are without knowing what ballparks they've been in. We don't know the run environments.
But we're just saying calling balls and strikes anything consistent with your historical numbers there.
You know, the second to last one you mentioned, Tony Randazzo, he is he allows runs eight percent more than an average umpire based on balls and strikes, so that would be consistent, and the other ones aren't there. So it just goes to show you that I think at this point, using you know what, if they're over under, at least this early into the season, it could be, you know, not the best idea, Gil.
Not the best idea in terms of sagan in terms of yeah, I mean, if.
You if you just go, well, this guy's five and oh to the over because there's so many other things that go into that that that component. But I can tell you that the over the last and I think I've done this for the last two and a half years. Actually I used to have it for three to four years, and I think that there's I think there's there's been been some adjustments in the in the way the umpires are calling games, so I wanted to make it a
little tighter. It goes back to twenty twenty two, so twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, and then this year. This is just based on walk percentage and strikeout percentage. And you've got a guy Mark Wagner thirteen percent a worse from a run run suppression, so thirteen percent greater runs allowed, and then Marquez and Jordan Baker. Those would be my top three over guys. And it does make a difference if you look at it like a just just just throw out ten percent, uh, you know, extra runs.
I mean on a on a total of nine and that's a full run. So I think I think that you almost have to use them for me personally.
Deal give those three Give those give those three names again if you would that you came up with.
Mark Wegner, Alfonso Marquez, and Jordan Baker. They're all about ten percent from a runs allowed greater than an average umpire.
All right, who's here's where I have the most reliable unders thus far this year, and it's Mark Cautions. You know, historically, the reason that we like to do it only with the historical numbers that Mark haz is because those are more reliable. But now here's these are some of the names here. So four and a four under on Ben May, four and four under on Mike Esterbrook, four to four under on Tom Hanahan, uh five out, a five under on Alfonso Marquez and Alex Tosi.
Well, no, Marquez was up towards the over. Now, these are the three guys that I have, and I would I would bank on these, and in fact I have locally. Uh, Bill Miller is a is an under guy. In fact, with the new rating system, he's he's close to twenty percent from a run suppression just now that's just based on strikeout percentage and walk percentage. And he's he's got a twenty four percent of strikeout rate, which is pretty
high compared to most of these guys. Fit fit right close to league average, which is a twenty two point four percent. So he's almost two percent greater than average there and then a walk percentage that's I think, Gill it's the lowest in baseball. In fact, it is a six point nine percent, which is lower than league average. I think the league average about eight and a half percent. But you throw it into you know, a component aggregator
er calculator. He's ERI is three point seventy five league average ERA are runs run rather four point six is the way I have it. So he's eighty point eighty one or nineteen percent from from an undersuppression standpoint. And so I would definitely if he's if you're thinking about playing an over and he's the umpire, I would not play the over goal.
Okay, that's great advice. So I'm almost by me giving the short term ones, I'm almost polluting it. So once again, give your overs and give your under guy again, so we can.
Have that three under top three under guys Bill Miller, Lance Barrett, Doug Eddings, top three over guys for me, Mark Wagner, Alfonso Marquez, and Jordan Baker. And that's based on last two and a half years strikeout percentage and walk percentage guys, and.
You're the I love the way that you put it, which is This should not necessarily make you bet under or over based on their reliability, but it should certainly give you pause. If your lean is the other direction, that's that's the way to say it.
Yeah, I think so. Or it could confirm. Like let's say, let's say that you're let's say you don't even put my model with the chart I sent out. I put the umpires in so that that total is going to have that there. But let's say that you you don't do anything with umpires other than you set a line and you think that the line should be nine point I don't know six, and the line's nine. You're I'm gonna play over on this one, and then you look and you say, well, Bill Miller is the umpire. I
would strongly suggest you don't play the over there. Gil.
I like it. I love it. By the way, if I look at my real brief pause here, if I look at my pre season futures plays, futures season wins, prop bets, my two season win totals this year over on the Padres, over on the Cubs, those are often nice starts. Padre is not so much. Until recently. Padre's now at five hundred. They only have to go over eighty one and a half, so I'm not asking for much. Cubs have gotten off to a great star, but now
they've they sort of mellowed a little bit. They're twenty four and eighteen, but I have them over eighty four and a half. So the Cubbies are looking good. In terms of my two season win tots, did you play season wins this year?
I did? I played now. The one that's that the hero of it so far is the Brewers, and the goat is the the Tapa Bay Race. So those are the two that I have the most in onague and I was so far been good with Milwaukee and not so good with Tampa Bay.
Gill you and I also, if I'm not mistaken, we both have NL Central exactas I have Cubs one Brewers too. You have it the other way, right Brewers.
When it comes to yeah, yeah I do. I can't. I have to pull that up. I don't know what the price is, but I bet that I liked it. I still like it.
Actually, Yeah, Brewer is a half game better than the Cubs right now, quarter of the way through the season roughly, so so far, so good on that. My long shot plays, my long shot play does not look so good, which is on the Giants. I didn't have the Giants winning the division or anything. I had the Giants as a I have the Giants to win what do I have them? And to win the NL and to win the World
Series at long shot prices. And the reason for that was my thinking was, Listen, one of these teams in the NL has to make the playoffs that are not one of the usual suspects, and I figured the Giants, with their pitching, would be one of those teams. Logan Web has not been Logan Web esque, so the Giants a little bit behind the eight ball. But again only a quarter of the way through the season, so this could be like totally different. Come Q two.
Yeah, I mean that's the thing. It's still really early. It's super early, I think so, And I don't know. I think that there's some I think that there's some upside with that Giants player. I actually had just a little bit not I mean, I'd like the Dodgers to win that division, but I thought, at an outside chance, I think they were twelve to one. I put just a little bit on the Giants to win that division, and the Dodgers are just so good Gils.
Yeah, well that's why I never had him to win the division, right, Like, it's like, there's no way you're going to be the Dodgers in a division. In order to have the Padres winning the division. Who a quarter of the way through the season, who do your numbers have as the best team?
The team with the Okay, so this is the team to win based on the component ratings, based on the rest of their schedule. And it's kind of changed. I think it's I think I was super bullish on on the Braves and I and I still kind of kind of am bullish on the Braves. But based on my simulations which I ran yesterday, the Dodgers forty two point eight percent chance to have the best record in baseball, and then the Braves are second at thirty three point
nine percent. But they were the Braves where I thought that that was that was a great drainyard vanguard account. Bet bet the Braves. Uh no, you know what, I not the best record. I didn't get that. I didn't get that aggressive. It was it was to win the division and and you know so far, you know, and it's it's it's really not fair because you look at like the you look at the expected standings and you're you know, you got your you got your braves up there,
and they're their top ten in baseball hitting. But it's kind of a letdown, right They're they're they're number nine and way to runs creative plus. But you're like, wait a second, this team was the best hitting baseball team in the world really in the history of the league, best slugging percentage in the history of baseball last year. So they there's yeah, you know, there's so they're ninth in baseball, which you know isn't bad, but it's a
up down from last year. But anyway, the Dodgers, to answer your question, the Dodgers, to me have the best chance the chance of having the best record. Gil.
You know, it's interesting. I played the Best Record March in April, and most people who watch a Numbers game, they saw they'd have to listen to it live or they saw the clip the clips out there in social media going through that last game and the roller coaster ride of how we lost that bet down to the last out. We were one out away from winning a sixty five to one on The Guardian's Best Record March April.
I want to say a couple of things. One while I recommend obviously we lost it, but I recommend that bet to everybody who's a baseball fan. Doesn't have to be the Guardians, obviously, but if you really want a way that forces you to get immersed into the Major League baseball season when it begins, having a best record bet on a team of your choice March April is
such the way to do it. I was more locked in to what the Guardians and their pursuers were doing on a nightly basis in April, then I was as more than any other pennant race in September. It was unbelievable how locked in we got with this bet. I mean, it's really a PSA for betting in general, right that it does that it enhances any enjoyment or any interest in something. But this was such a great way to get into the baseball season and make you make such.
A good point too, because you're taking a lot of game to game variants out of it. And so that's what I've really enjoyed following you and you were with Gosh, you were with the Braves two years ago, right?
Was that was? That was your the Brave, Well the Braves. The big hit was when the Braves were trailing the Mets a couple of years ago down the stretch. The Braves were available at plus money every day, and I made a dime bet on the Braves seventeen different times down the stretch.
And it's so great. It's such a great way to do things. I mean, you were you had a conviction based on the way you handicap, and so then you take the variants out by playing it like a longer term. And I really enjoyed following the Indian sing with you because I think you did a good job and you don't have anything that's that's that's a program. You just did it. You know, you're looking at the schedule and with your background, and you just nailed it with their
strength of schedule, and and they played it. You know, they played Oakland, did you know, fifteen hundred times? But that was that was part of your handicap.
No, that was part of that idea.
They can't.
Yeah, it was that they played Oakland seven times, they played the White Sox three times, and they played Boston, who I had rated lower than most people. They had played Boston seven times, So it was seventeen games against those three teams. By the way, that's the handicap in May too, They've got a final stretch where they take on the Angels, the Rockies and the Nationals. The flourish at the end, So if they can just stay afloat,
that's part of it. But it was also the March April thing was also how much can we avoid the inclement weather in Cleveland? So they didn't have a whole game till April eighth, right, so we only lost one game. Now we didn't see the Shane Bieber Tommy John surgery thing coming, so that sucked. To your point though, and you and I talked about this a little bit on the radio side. This is the beauty still of baseball. As much as we love football, and as let's we
love any other sport, I'm into tennis. I bet tennis more than anything else. Baseball allows for all of these different kinds of bets. First of all, the menu before the season which allowed for a March April bet was there, But that length of period of time, right, thirty days or in this case thirty and some change, or in the Atlanta Braves win. The Pennant story it's perfect for baseball, right because you even talked about it, like you and I used to bet baseball every single day. You still do.
I don't. I just it doesn't work for me anymore, that wall.
And I think there might be something to that because you're taking the variance out, you're able to And I think from a fun standpoint too, I think you hit the nail on the head. That's a funner bet than if you're betting a guy who's got really good component numbers in a game and he just didn't have it that that day. That's right, It just it just fires you up. But you know, it's easy to get lost. I just want to make this point because I've I've
fallen into this trap. It's easy to get lost into all the props that are that are offered on a daily basis. And it really took from a from an energy and an emotion, uh, and a time just a straight time consuming Uh. You know, takes takes your time to bet all these things. I think that the better idea is to go with a longer term and and and you mentioned well they have all these bets, Well they've done it on the longer term ones too, which
is great. So you could you could pick it exactness, like you know, divisional exactness, which I thought was a great market this year. You could do stuff like the monthly stuff that you're doing, which was just fun. And you talk about just from a listing standpoint, And I really feel bad that you lost, because you got that was a hard That was a hard beat. That thing should have cash. But it was fun. It was a fun ride gilt.
I'll never have a sicker beat. I got messages from Brent Musburger about it, from SVP about it. Right, you had all these people who were following this bet that we made, and it was just fascinating to see how people who weren't even involved got wrapped up in it. And I'm not just enough talking about those two because
those two are known. We had listeners who were riding it, and then we had those that had nothing to do with the bet, who were like fans of the teams we were competing against, who were like rooting for us. It was really awesome in that way, and I know that sounds corny to some, but it made it so much fun. The whole thing. Before we get to the five innings and the first days. Let me ask you a couple questions based on your numbers. So you got
the Dodgers, is your best? Who's your worst? You might have already mentioned it.
It's between I got a page after this thing real fast here.
Because a lot of people have this bet too, right. A lot of people are on the Marlins, on the White Sox, or on the Rockies when Trout. The day that Trout went down, I happened to time this. No, I didn't time it. We did a segment in the morning about worst record in baseball. I set out loud. I was like, oh wow, Angels forty to one is interesting, even though there were still like six games better than the other teams I just mentioned. And then that day
Trout got it was announced Trout was hurt. So I think this was May first. If I'm not mistaken, And I immediately went to the sports we can bet the Angels thirty to one for worst record.
Yeah, I don't have them for the worst record. You know, this Rockies team for me as a forty five percent chance of having the worst record. I hope it's the White Socks. I've got them at five to one preseason. They have a forty four point eight percent chance, so it's kind of neck and neck with them. And if you look at those bullpens are some of the worst bullpens I've seen ever. And that's something that goes into my simulations that I don't think the market looks at enough.
I agree, and then I have I have the the Marlins with a ten percent chance to have to have the worst record. So it's really to me between those those three teams, at least at.
This point, Gil, no one does the underbelly of a bullpen better than you do. And I mean that you have to look at that.
I mean, they use these guys and and uh, you know that that's something I think we still get an advantage. I agree on a daily basis, you know, just really knowing those bullpens.
This is It's also why I don't do daily baseball because I don't have the time to figure that out. And you're right, yeah, you know, three four years ago, five years ago, I could do baseball because starters were kept in longer. Well, once that started to get ratchet back and bullpens expanded in terms of their usage, you do have to know. Part of your thing in sports betting is to know when you're cooked at something, or you.
Mason a really good thing. And then this is I think prevalent for for everybody. You know, the amount of time you have, you know you're limited to and you have to have a life too. It's like, you know, you have a relationship and you have a life outside, and you like to go out to dinner and stuff. You know, if you can sit in for sixteen hours in front of a TV screen and watching you know, some people do that. I don't. So you bring up
a good point. You have to you have to understand, Okay, this is what I'm going to accomplish, this is what I'm going to be really good at. And you've found a really good niche in baseball. I mean, I love listening to your bad skills. So I think that that that's that's important to kind of realize your limitations. From a bandwidth standpoint, from a time standpoint.
Gil Park has a life. He's underplaying his life, but he has one.
I don't go to as many nice restaurants as you though, I think, and and and maybe I still have. I still have not been you know, tuned into this to the sushi restaurant, which I mean I like.
What's up with that? That's a whole different episode. I think, all right, and then here's a question for you, because this will inform some of our bets before we gets at five innings and first innings, which are proprietary, which is of all of the teams that are currently below five hundred, we'll do it at that. And this question comes up because someone was asking me about the a's pardon me, the other day, and the A's are nineteen and twenty four, which is well better than most people
thought they would be. And so someone was saying, how do I bet this? Do I bet them an over adjusted season win total? Do I bet them to make them playoffs? Do I bet them to finish with exactly the number six seed in the playoffs? I said, Bingo, that's the one. Like, if you're gonna take a shot, if you have some belief in them, and you got to have belief, right, or your numbers point you there,
whatever it is, otherwise, don't do it at all. But I was like, if you're going to do one, make them do the bet that they finish exactly six in the postseason. That'll get you a lot of bang for your buck. So my question to you becomes of all the teams that are below five hundred right here, just a quarter into the season, who is the one that your number say is the best and ought to trigger in what ever form bets for people.
I think I wouldn't sleep on the Astros. I think that they they're hitting, you know, it's pretty amazing. They are right up there. They're close. They're not quite to the Dodgers Braves level, but they're close by my numbers, and I think that's very important. And the one thing we talked about this yesterday a little bit on the show. You know, they're set they're set up seven, they're set up eight, and they're closer. They're all over thirty percent
strikeout percentage, which is really good. You know, that's a that's a bray you Presley and hater of course, and I think that that's important. You know, they're going to have to get better starting pitching. But I don't have anybody running away with that division Gil and they were I think they were a price in the market plus
three fifty yesterday to win that division. I have them closer to like plus three hundred ish, and that's that's based on the on the actual to date, or I look at last one hundred and fifty strikeout percentage, last three hundred walk percentage, last one hundred and fifty plate appearance ground ball percentage. That's that's those that timeframe for those starting pitchers. And I think that there's more ceiling on that. So I would say Houston would be a good idea at least.
Gill all right, By the way, my computer went down, So I'm worried that I won't be able to conjure up my first inning stats. Oh no, I gotta find this. Let me do the Let me do the first five though, and these are these are provided now. I used to do these manually, and then odds Shark used to do this for us for many years, but they I don't
know if they stopped doing it. Also, but the best five inning teams in baseball, so just what we did before for money lines for full games, if you just do it for five innings, because obviously a lot of people like to bet first fives. Any guesses as to who the most profitable first five team is in baseball this year, I would say.
A starting pitching team that has goods starting pitching. I would say Philly. That's what I would say.
Billy is number one, twenty eight, eleven and three. Remember you can obviously push on first fives. Twenty eight to eleven three, you'd be up over eight units betting on the Phillies first five. This year, they were, by the way, the March April champions. I'm surprised that they didn't get a ring for it, and they are currently tied with the Dodgers as the may leaders in wins. Any guesses on number two, three, four, or five. Oh, number six, you're gonna love number six too.
I've just I got to think that the starting pitching gosh. I would say maybe the Yankees are up there somewhere.
Yankees are not up there. Yankees are kind of middling. The Yankees are in eleventh, a little better than middle. So Phillies number one, Boston is number two. You'd be up seven and a half units with them because they're twenty two, thirteen and six. The Nationals are number three. Remember we saw the Nationals is up there at the top of the money line full game. They're also third and money line first five. They're seventeen, nineteen and three.
You'd be up five point seventy five units. You're like, what are you talking about? They have a losing record, but remember they're dogs in most of these and this is a bizarro exercise. If you bet them in every single game. The Cubs are fourth, five units are the positive. The Royals are six, excuse me fifth, pardon me? Clubs are fourth. Royals are fifth. You'd be up four units. Guess who number six is? I'll give you.
You haven't mentioned the Tigers, have you?
Nope, haven't mentioned the Tigers yet. Tigers are Tigers. Tigers are middling.
Wow, okay, all right, now, I guess you got.
Me Chicago White Sox six sixteen nineteen and six. You'd be up three point eight units. Unsustainable, that's what you are.
Well, you know what, it brings up a good point though, Like you know, you could have the crappiest team, but if they're getting the biggest price, you know, maybe maybe that's a good bed. So you have to always always measure the odds. Obviously when you bet, you have to you have to figure the odds into the into the ratings. So I mean that's that's a function of right, getting really good odds with a really bad team.
Well, it's also what it is is because the record is sixty nineteen and six, which is not horrible. Right, So what it's telling us is that once the starter leaves, and this is to your point about the White Sox bullpen, they go to absolute crapple at that point.
Yeah, they're bad. They are the worst team. So like from a run suppression standpoint, it's like, you know, it's an ex minus, you know, one hundred to one hundred scale, right, they're at one six, They're at one sixteen, and the next team would be the Rockies at one oh nine. So yeah, they're they're they're in a class by themselves, if you will.
Milwaukee seven, Baltimore eight, Arizona nine, Guardians, ten, Yankees, eleven, Braves twelve, Dodgers thirteen, Padres fourteen. So the usual suspects kind of coming after that. By the way, the worst first five teams in baseball and Darleans Marlin's a third worst, third worst, Angels second worst. They would have cost you, by by way, both the Marlins and Angels would have
cost you over ten units. The team that would cost you over fifteen units first five, and we have we did not mention them in the full games, but in first five. So this is the opposite of the White Sox basically where there's where their starters are horrific, but then their bullpen kind of stabilizes it.
Any idea maybe Cardinals bingo. Yeah, Cardinals are an interesting team because there are no other bullpen numbers. They are pretty good. They're top three and a lot of the different metrics I use, uh, but they're just they're They're not top three in the standings, that's for sure, and and I think it's disappointed, and I want to see this guy do better. As Goldsman, he's he's had a he's had a poor year. Hopefully he can turn it around. You look at their Cardinals way to runs creative plus
eighty eight, it's sixth worst in baseball. But the bullpen has been really good. Like I said, a lot of those advanced metric numbers, they're their top three in GILL.
So that's that's really interesting to me, right, because that just shows you how these baseball teams are so many different parts and you have to sort of solve the puzzle. So the Cardinals first five this year, they're eleven, twenty five and five. You'd be down fifteen point oh five units. That's just horrible. So if you could put their bullpen with the White Sox starters, you might not have that bad of a team.
Yeah. Well, and it brings up like you talked about, sitting in front of a screen for sixteen hours. But there's guys that do it, like Todd, and like Todd doesn't I think he does a lot of this. He does a lot of the bullpen like betting in games, knowing who the bullpens are good. And so that's an idea to do. If that team get gets behind and they've got the best bullpen in the league, you know, maybe that's a team you jump on in live betting.
Gill Oh, so you're talking about you're talking about wish to Nev by the way.
I'm talking about I wish Nev. Yeah. I think that he sits at home and has four screens in his mom's attic and he just live bets and there's nothing I'm not I'm not trying to put it down. I mean, yeah, no, part of me, part of me says I'm jealous, But I think I think that you could you could really do a lot with these with these bullpen ratings and live betting game.
Well, remember one of the things that he's that he tracked one year and I don't think he does it anymore. He just did it. It was a sort of a one off. But here we are talking about best first five teams, and obviously people can now bet this accordingly because the next question is, all right, which of this is sustainable? Which is not? He was tracking inning sixth and beyond, so like he had this very unique thing for endgame where it's like, Okay, that's great that you're all betting
first five. I want to see how bad these teams are six andy beyond. So he would actually put together the records, like if they started at zero zero after the first five, what would the records be for each of these teams? And you get some horrific results like oh my god, this team's bullpen never wins a game for their team.
But that's really cool. That's a that's a good I could I can do that? Actually, I'm thinking on my head.
I'd love to see it. I'd love to see it.
I'll put them on my task list. I can probably have it done in a couple of weeks. Goo, we talked about it on the show. It'd be fun, all.
Right, So which of those first five numbers are sustainable to you, like which of those are just you know, that's a fun story for the first you know, forty games of the season, but which is actually like a thing moving forward. Do you think that the Cardinals will continue to suck with their starting pitching? Do you think that the White Sox will continue to actually be pretty good with their starting pitching.
I would say that that's unsustainable. The White Sox one, I'm not real, you know, they have a couple pieces there. Garrett Crochet is a good pitcher, but I have them collectively. They're starting pitching at one oh seven, which is towards the bottom there. And then Saint Louis, you know, to answer your question, that's surprising to me, I'd like this the Saint Louis pitching beginning with Sonny Gray, who I have either towards the top of the list or top three.
So I think that that's on those Both those things that we went over, the White Sox and Saint Louis are unsustainable. But I want saying it. You say you saying that really well though.
Gil like it's a little that king cool. So now I don't have my because my computer went down I don't have the first inning numbers. I'm curious, do you have any for the first time you.
Pull that up, I can pull that up. Yeah, let me just go to you want you want to look at you want to look at like who's nerfy and stuff like that, or you want.
To I want to know which pictures which starting pictures? And I'm talking about like a minimum because it's only forty games. Let's just talk about a minimum of thirty played appearances against at this point, which starting pitchers have the best and worst on base percentage against? And this is one of those things.
Again, you want to use WHOBA or OBP, Like what do you what do you want to use?
I usually historically on this show, I use OBP. But if you want to use Whoba insta, that's fine for this episode.
No, no, I let's do OBP.
Let's keep it pe.
So yeah, so we go. It's it's we just mentioned him Crochet one twenty nine, OBP, Tanner Bibbi won sixty one, OBP, and Luis Casteel one eight two.
Those are the best. Those are the best.
Those are the best. Yeah. And then conversely, this is interesting interesting Hunter Brown five seventy eight oh, pep first in it, Jesus Joe Muskrove five twelve, and then Max Freed forty eight, very interesting games played, forty three batters face so uh, those are the those are the worst three and on base percentage GI.
Those are interesting because the Padre's definitely got good when Musgrave sat. Let's put it that way, there's some correlation.
That's a bad story. That's I hate to see these guys get injured, and we've had these guys get it good pictures. You know, you know you mentioned Bieber earlier that what a disappointment that was. And I'm not just talking selfishly because I had a bet on them all. I kind of am, but I mean just from from a standpoint if it's bad for baseball, and I don't know what you can do differently to fix it. I don't know if there is a fixed gil.
I don't know if there is either. And it certainly wasn't confined to Bieber. Right, the Braves lost Spencer Strider, which we always said about Spencer Strider, it's like the human body was not meant to do this for him.
Well, that and the fact, and I hate to make Vegan jokes because if I did that, that would be tasteless. But the guys, hey, you got to eat a little bit of meat there, I think to pitch at that level, Gil, I.
Say that to my brother. By the way, my brother gets sick all the time. I will say, you go maybe a sandwich. Every once in a while, I would saying.
Could you imagine not eating beef but not going to steakhash? I couldn't do it.
Come on, all right, those are fascinating. Can you give the best three again in that first inning?
I'm curious, absolutely, Gil Garrett Crochet point one two nine on base percentage, Tanner Bibbie point one six one, and we's Castillo yeah point one two, yeah, yeah.
Tanner Bibby of the Guardians and Castillo of the Mariners who we needed to mow down the braves that final night of that March April bet and he did. Castillo at his best is still great. Now here's the thing, because a lot of people there's this cottage industry of what you just referred to as nurfe and your fee bets. So no runs first inning, yes, runs first inning. So let me just put these two things together. We're looking
at these pitchers for first inning performance. It does not mean that you should immediately correlate that with yes and no first runs first inning runs. Jason Weiningard and I bet these first inning bets for years and years and years until it became and then it became popular in the mainstream in the last few years, and everybody in the mainstream gravitates towards no first no runs in the first inning because the brain immediately goes to, well, it's
only one frame of baseball. Obviously, the no ought to be the thing you're betting on. And I'm here to tell you that your instinct actually ought to be on the pricings for yes runs. So a lot of times when you have aces on the hill, it's the same thing that Mark and I were talking about earlier when we were talking about those umpires. If you have a notion to bet a yes, which again I think your instinct, and if you're going to bet in these markets, the
value is more often on the yes run scored. But if you see a guy like a Louis Castillo or a tanner bybe up there, maybe it should give you a little pause, is all I'm saying. But if it's just another big name, you know if it's you know, let me just pick pictures from the past. If it's Clayton Kershaw versus tim linsecom Actually that's where the value was on the Yes. So it's good to know these numbers as a sort of stay off in some cases.
But if they're not on these lists, it shouldn't make you stay off, if you know what I mean.
Anyway, I know you make it, you make a good point. Or conversely, like like you look at a guy like Max Freed, and I mean, you know, he's considered a great pitcher, but like not in the first inning this year, not in the first Yeah, yeah, So if you it should I think it should have have a kind of like a tiebreaker effect or something. I guess on your bet.
I agree. That's a great way of putting it. It really should be, and that's why we go through it again. You won't find the first inning numbers anywhere else. But when Mark and I do these podcasts the first fives, it's amazing that first five stats are not more readily available. It really is, like it's really for something that is available as a bet every single day, in every single game. It's amazing how you can't find those stats that easily.
So anyway, that's what we do. We'll do it again in forty games, if you will, halfway through the season. Q two. What's the biggest takeaway from everything we've talked about? What do you think is the is the most actionable betting thing or the thing that we should keep in mind the most umpires.
No. I I think that that's that's really important to keep in mind. I think that that's that's something that that you need to do as a totals player. I think I think that my biggest takeaway from from the whole show, Gil would be to, like, you know, pick your spots. I think that, you know, I think that there's a and this is this could be a blessing
and a curse. It's it's a curse to have all of these markets available because then you're mind swimming, You're you're behind, you're always feeling like you're up against from a time crunch. But it could be a blessing if you find a market that you like, and you did so well with the April market, you said'm gonna I'm gonna put some time into this is gonna be a fun bet take love that market. Be good at that market. And and that's what I think that the proliferation of
betting has for me. I think you got you got to be able to balance it because I'm a I bring that up because I'm a victim of it, right, like, like there's so many bets, and and you can fall into so many, like you know, rabbit holes if you will, But but find something that you really enjoy doing and follow and put your energy into that. That's my takeaway. Gil.
It's a great PSA. We say that about sports in general betting. You can't be expert in every sport. Well in baseball, you can't be expert in every little thing in baseball. So I think that's great advice. Love all that stuff. Love the five inning things. I think the five inning things always produce as a nugget, like that White Sox and Cardinals thing. That's gonna be fascinating in
forty days to see if that's still up there. And if it's still up there and I haven't exploited it, I'm gonna beat myself up about it, right and be like, of course we had the numbers. We knew that. The White Sox, although they appear to suck on the Surface are actually pretty good in the first five. We knew that the Cardinals are actually pretty sucky in the first five. Whatever it is, so we just have to isolate those two. Mark all was a pleasure once again at base Winter
baswinter dot com. The BetUS Show is a live YouTube show. Would it what's the quickest way for them to find that?
What do they do? Well, that's easy. All you gotta do is log into YouTube, put lb show bet us on a search bar and you'll get us, all right.
And these kinds of things. You provide little nuggets like this every day. Season has been going so far, so good.
It's been pretty good. I'm right about like on the on the scoreboard, I'm right it right, it even right now. So so try, you know, trying to get better. You know, last last year was good. We were we were ahead of the game. But the show, I think at the show there's there's myself and two other analysts and then the host. We're we're above above winning, which I think, and you say, well, and I think it's only a couple three units above winning, but we're a quarterway into
the season. That's hard to do, and that's hard to do in betting. To to be to be positive as a show. So uh, and the show is super fun, a lot of a lot of good humor, a lot of good stats. But it's it's a it's a fun show as well, guys, so check it out. Uh. I appreciate that the p s a gil and and uh you know you guys are welcome. The other thing is too, which is cool about this show is you can get
into the chat. There's a little chat box when the show's live, I guess, and you can ask us any questions you want to you with the reason but I don't really hold back. I mean, and you can. You can ask what you want and I'll tell you.
Physick has jumped in there before. Correct.
Oh, absolutely, Steve likes to get in there. We we like to have parlay debates or we have had some heated parlay debates in that chat real. Well, that's for sure.
Well let me close with that, because what Mark is referring to is that Mark always comes on a numbers game on the radio side, and he always has a parlay two team two leg parlay. And Fsick's comment to me, Steve Fesick, the only back to back winner of the Hilton Super contest was, here's this unbelievably intelligent guy who clearly knows all his baseball, and then he ends every segment with a parlay, and he hates parlays and is
correct me if I'm wrong. His biggest, his most simple parlay counter is you're not getting the best number on each leg at the same book, right, That's his basic thing.
No, he's got some he's got some theories about that, and there's some there's some counter theories too, But I think for me, what it's come down to, you Gil, is I really love making a two team you know, lay the wood parlay if you will, but really two good pitchers and two good teams, and I don't think they price them high enough, and so I really enjoy making that play. And it comes back down to you know, you know, like you said, I've spent half my adult
life doing this. Yes, at this point, I'm going to do stuff that I really enjoy, and I enjoy making that play, and I think that there's I think there's there's counter arguments to the parlay from a risk management standpoint, that sort of thing being as good or better than than betting the game straight. But you know, we do all that stuff in the chat box, and you're welcome to come in there and give your two sounds worth. That's great.
And know, you know what I always say is part of the one of the things that a guy like him, by the way, he's as smart as they come, Steve, but one of the things that he never considers about parlays also. And this is going to be like it's going to make some people's heads explode, but some people who do parlays, they are stopping themselves from betting other crap while their parlay is still alive. And so there is a certain unquantifiable benefit in some cases to those people.
If that makes sense.
Yeah, no, it totally does. And the other thing that for me from from an emotional standpoint, if I and I bet one the other day on a Friday night, I think they were both saying minus two hundred favorites and they both lost, you know, that would have really brought me down the next day. I would have been I would have been distraught. Really, I mean, I mean, I'm kind of being dramatic, but I but I would have been. Yeah, And so like I'm like, why why
am I doing that? I like both teams I'll put them in a parlay and then if I lose, I lose one unit, and and so it's a risk management situation. And I think that you know, doing we've we've done the math, that we've really gotten nerdy on it on the show, and I don't really think that there's that big of an advantage either either way personally. And like I said, I enjoy making the play and that's why I do it.
Gil, It's so much fun to talk about. I appreciate you so much.
Mark.
This is and I'll say it again, it's it's a little older than the megapod and guessing lines in Vegas lifestyle. Even like we've done it that long, and I still enjoyed nerding out on this every forty games. And I'd love talking baseball with you every day. Man, Thank you so much.
You know my pleasure is such an enjoyable show. It's enjoyable to listen to your show during during the week too as well. And you know that whole Cleveland thing was was a hell of a lot of fun.
Hey, we got a shot in May too. We'll see, we'll see you gotta beat the Rangers tonight, though, you gotta start there Thank you, Mark Borchride, everybody at base winner again bet us on YouTube. Just plug it in and you will get all of Mark's insights. Thank you, brother, appreciate it, no problem, gil My pleasure, Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your baseball players. Hope there were some nuggets that will lead to some winning bets in there.