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Check it in, man, and I'm just told the story.
Analysandos idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander one vs.
In Good Monday Morning to It's a numbers game at vs in the sports betting network, Visa dot Com game plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV. However you take it is SI, We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bedlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
How you doing man, I'm doing great? How are you?
I'm doing great? You had a great football weekend, didn't you, Betting wise? NFL have yet, so that's pretty good. Hasn't lost yet? I say yet though, because uh Buffalo to Buffalo today. I have Buffalo tonight, pending a three to one based on guessing lines reactions last week for me as well, so trying to get a second consecutive four and one. That's why we do this exercise.
People. You know the regrets from this from this past weekend. It was the same old why didn't I bet that bigger? Or why didn't I make another better two that me and you talked all week about which one was? Then Steelers?
Oh, I know, I know. That wasn't the That wasn't the loss though. The loss was the Broncos for me, Yeah, yeah, for me, that didn't work out. Sean Payton did the right thing at the end of that game. We'll get into all of that. We If you're not familiar with this exercise, we look back at the previous weekend's games. But the point is to guess. I don't know the lines for the upcoming week. I'm in a cocoon. I guess them. Kelly tells me what they are, and within
that exercise we look to extract value. That first reaction has not only served us well here these last couple of weeks, it served us well for years and years here doing the National Football League, and then we have to endure four or five days of everybody else telling.
Us we're wrong, right, yeah, or us overthinking things like Steelers, like the Steelers, that's right.
But I replaced the Steelers with the Bucks, so that didn't end up mattering. You know what, It did the same thing, yeah, so that didn't end up mattering. Before we do that. A Circus survivor update real quick. This is the first week. Finally, it took six weeks, but finally we have a week that does not have carnage. Only five entries of the remaining two twenty one headed into the week are gone, and that's where it will stand because nobody's on the bills or jets tonight. Only
five entries gone. So it's down to two sixteen out of the initial fourteen thousand, two one hundred and sixty six, which means the actual intrinsic value of each of the remaining two hundred and sixteen entries rises incrementally to sixty six thousand, forty six dollars and thirty cents.
So there you go.
Congratulations to all you survived a week without much drama.
That's going to be painful. To just hear every week you, uh, what the intrinsic value was up to. Yeah.
By the way, those five losses, four were on the Titans, one was on the Jaguars. Not the Jaguarars, but the Jaguars.
Yeah. Yeah, I don't think either the Jaguars or the Jaguars looked very good. No, they They kind of stink. Gotta stink at football. All right, you ready to do this, Let's do it.
Fire it up, baby, guessing lines Week seven coming at you, and it goes a little something like this, No, Mary.
I had I had all kinds of stalls out. I had all kinds of stalls ready. And it goes a little something like this.
Here we go.
Alright, Thursday night, buckle in Broncos at Saints.
Are you serious? Yeah? Oh god, Broncos. If you need a date night or something, that's a pencil this one in this week? Hey, uh, I don't really have to watch football for you. Broncos at Saints.
Broncos lose to the Charge in a game which you know, Jim Harball really didn't get to see the beginning of. He had a little bit of an issue. We're not really sure what, but we could speculate. This started with the Chargers deciding at the one yard line. This was Harball not in charge at this point. It was a combination of Mentor and Roman, their coordinators, and they decided to kick a field goal even though they're at the one yard line, so it was three to nothing Chargers.
Next time they got the football though, big eighty three yard drive Herbert to Camani Vidal from thirty eight, ten to nothing Chargers. Then the next time they got the ball after a Denver punt, a twenty play drive twenty Kelly that resulted in a Cameron Dicker thirty three yardfield goal to make it thirteen to nothing, and then Javante
was hit by Khalil Mackie fumbled it. Chargers got the ball back Dobbins in from four twenty to nothing, and then by halftime they got another Dicker field goal twenty three to nothing. By the way, the most incredible little like stat was thrown out casually in this. Did you know that Cameron Dicker at this point twenty three to nothing Chargers of that have fifty three for fifty three career inside the fifty yard line?
Did you know that? I mean no, I didn't know those exact numbers. But he's been solid. He's been a rock solid since he's been there.
I'd say fifty three out of fifty three inside of your soft fairly solid. Denver then got off the schneid. This is in the second half. Now, he played ninety five yard drive that at fourth and two at the Chargers thirty nine. Nicks to Devon Vale for thirty seven. Then Troy Franklin from two is twenty three to seven. This is ten minutes left in the game. Now at this point Chargers three and out, Denver sixty four yard drive, NICKX to Sutton from fifteen out, great one handed catch,
twenty three to thirteen. Two point try fails, So again the spread is in question at this point, or at least now. With a two point try failing, there could have been a back door push, and Denver did get the ball back, and then Sean Payton correctly, as much as I hate to say it, because I wanted the back door push, he correctly opts for the Lutz forty yard field goal to cut it to seven with one ozho three left, destroying the hopes of those of us who were hoping for a back door push on side
kick fails after they did declare it ballgame. Chargers win it twenty three to sixteen. So the Broncos go down New Orleans in what was a just complete track meet against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Spencer Rattler's debut his d butt if you will Kelly as a starting quarterback. Tampa Bay went up in this game. Seventeen was a seventeen and nothing, No, pardon me, fourteen to nothing, and then no, it was they traded a field goals. It
was seventeen to nothing and seventeen to three. Okay, they're up seventeen to nothing, and the Saints came right back groupe forty two yardfield gon'll make it seventeen to three. Camarta's punt was returned by Rashid Rahit pardon me, Rashid Shaheed fifty four yards. Made it's seventeen to ten, and then Baker got picked by Paulson Adebo that led to a group a twenty nine yardfield goal to cut it to seventeen to thirteen nine minutes left in the second quarter.
It's already seventeen to thirteen, and then Tampa second play on the next drive, Baker picked again by Jonathan Abram and then the first play for the Saints down seventeen to thirteen. I've learned a Bob means, you have bubb means this week.
No, I did not Gil, No didn't start him in the fantasy Yeah, twenty to seventeen New Orleans, erasing the seventeen to nothing deficit.
There's still eight thirty seven left in the second quarter. Tampa Bay would come back with the drive Baker to Tucker, Seawan Tucker all over this game for thirty six. Twenty four to twenty Tampa and then New Orleans behind Spencer Ratler seven play seventy yards cameraon from four, big play to Foster Moroe for forty one. Right before that twenty seven to twenty four Saints as we go to the half, because Baker was picked off one more time before the half, which is just crazy.
You ended up on the Bucks too. I was on the Bucks too. That felt like the most stressful first half of betting like ever, because of all that it was the Saints barely had the ball.
And then it was no pressure at all because then the Bucks just tore them one in the third court in the third second half, starting in the third quarter, Tampa Bay. First time they got the ball, Baker to Godwin for fifty five. Terrible tackling on the playoff, Tampa Bay takes the lead thirty one to twenty seven. Later, New Orleans first play, fourth quarter, Rattler picked by Zine McCollum. That led to a Baker to Otton touchdown from eight
out on a third and goal. The two point try would fail earlier on that drive, Bucky Irving an amazing thirty one yard run actually to start that drive, So Tampa's up thirty seven to twenty seven, three and out for New Orleans. They get it again, Irving in from one to end another drive forty four to twenty seven. Then Rattler was picked by Takee Smith, and then on the final drive up seventeen points, the Bucks just said, you know what, We're gonna give Sean Tucker the ball
every time. Tucker for thirty six, Tucker for three, Tucker for zero, took her for twelve, tuk Her for eight, Tucker for five, touchdown fifty one to twenty seven. That's how it would end. The Saints gave up, because we're talking about the Saints here. They gave up five hundred and ninety four total yards of offense.
Well that didn't sound great.
Kill It's not really good. Five ninety four to three zero three in the total yards column. So this is Denver at New Orleans, two teams coming off a loss. This is kind of difficult. New Orleans cannot be a three point favorite in this game.
This is hard.
I'll say Saints minus two and a half even with the rookie, but that's up against the Denver defense.
I don't know.
Saints one one and a half. Oh, I'm not as okay. I was worried that I was gonna be on the wrong favorite here.
Oh okay, okay, No, yeah, yeah, you're on the right favorite this. Uh man, this is a game I don't think I'll have anything to do with the bronc The Broncos have become a very tough team to handicap in my opinion, because the defense is solid and you don't know what you're gonna get from.
The offense at all. And I would say that box score from this.
Weekend is very misleading because of how dominant the Chargers were in the first half and whatever you're gonna give Bo Nicks, it was all in junk garbage chime in the second half. It is.
It's funny you say that, because as I was watching this game, I had the thought that this is the most game script dependent team there is.
Yep.
In other words, if they go ahead, having that defense and having the ability to play conservatively with Nicks is just are you know, it's not a bad thing at all. You could actually make it work. But if you fall behind, Chargers are not you know, they're not the uh pick your favorite team of all time. They're not the ninety one Skins, right, They're not that great. But yet it's they're just it's they're hard pressed to come from way behind, right, And so I just feel that way about the Broncos.
And so to your point pre flop, it's kind of difficult in a game like this because if I told you, and that's true of any NFL game, but specifically with these Broncos, the difference between them being up seven or down seven, let's make it up ten or down ten of the a half, it's massive. It feels monster with them. Yeah, Okay, I don't love that game.
Well, yeah, we'll keep going. Let's go. We can get this one in London. Patriots versus Jaguars Patriot Can we get that in. I don't know if we can.
I don't know if we really can't. Let's see, yeah, well, I mean Patriots lose to the Texans. There's not much to say about that game. Texans just they went out to a fourteen to nothing lead, and it was kind of it got to a point in that game where it was it was actually fourteen to seven at the half. It got closed for a minute, but then once Houston took a twenty seven to seven lead, they just traded
touchdowns for that point. On forty one twenty one Houston Drake may not bad twenty of thirty three for two forty three, three touchdowns, two picks, He was sacked four times, did lose a fumble, but the Patriots remind us three and turnovers. And then Jacksonville. What a dud performance in London. As the Bears took a fourteen to three lead at the half, Jacksonville really, I mean then it was twenty
one to three. Jacksonville only got it to twenty one to ten, and then they let Caleb go right down field twenty eight to ten. And then even after they recovered to fumble, Jacksonville Trevor was picked right after that by Josh Blackwell. It ends up being thirty five to ten, excuse me, and then thirty five to sixteen some garbage points at the end. Trevor twenty three of thirty five for two thirty four in defeat New England at Jacksonville.
You're right, that's all it needed, Jacksonville having the rest. They get to stay in London. By the way, if they hadn't gotten I think Doug Peterson would have been fired because they stay there. He's okay for a week minus four Jacksonville minus four, five and a half for six.
Oh wow, that's a little too much. I don't know if I have the stomach for the Patriots though. Do you want to wake up for that game?
Patriots with a little lean, that's for sure. We're guessing lines next.
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Always appreciated Los Vegas five to one, four yo. Despite the loss by our team, we have a bright future and a lot to look forward to, new franchise, quarterback, hopefully new stadium and Gil finally saying just Commander, well that last one's gonna be tough. Yeah.
I was going to say, I don't know I've ever heard that much, but yes.
In defeat this is and this was a heading into the Ravens Skins game, which we'll get to in our course here guessing lines I said all last week, I was like, this is the one. We won't know anything until we see them play this team and this is exactly the level that I think they are, which is they're probably on the fringe of the top ten, which is where I had them in power ratings, but they're not necessarily close.
We'll see.
I mean, they played very well yesterday, but defensively they're you know, they're not going to stop team like that.
I think if you're a Commander's fan, even like I know this is tough to say at a loss, that was I was still impressed.
Oh I was. I was still I was totally pumped. I think every Commodore's fan was.
I absolutely do.
Jay Kochstein, what do you think of plus of a plus money bet on Kwan or Lane Thomas to hit a home run? This series seems like an insanely good bet. To me, this series could go seven even if it doesn't. Still looks good. Uh, Jay, I will not be on that bet. I'm not saying it's good or bad. It's just not something I'll get involved with. Did anybody catch
this has nothing? By the way, the we have a double header today Mets Dodgers Game two this morning, this afternoon from Chavez Ravine and then Game one of the Yankees and the Guardians, Game one of the Alcs later today. Did anybody catch the beginning of the broadcast yesterday? Matt fast Gershon's voice didn't seem correct.
Really.
I don't know if it was was modulated differently, or if he was sick and they were doing something with it, but he was like his voice was like two octaves lower than it normally is. It's very strange. That's odd. We love that, we love that. I don't know what they were doing with that.
I was gonna I thought you were gonna say, did anybody catch actual Game five, the elimination game that was played on Saturday morning, Someone could have given me a heads up about, Oh, Guardian's Tiger.
Yeah, well that that was the Lane Thomas Grand Slam that did it for the Guardians, put them ahead to stay against the Tigers in Game five. What we have today is a what has happened with the postseason? First of all, all of my matchups poof and remember every time I said I go watch this be the year that the Yankees played the Dodgers in the World Series.
This has gone from a great postseason to the Dodgers making a mockery of the National League after they gave up six runs to the Padres and the third inning of Game three, Remember that was enough for the Padres to win that take a two to one lead in that series. Thirty three consecutive scoreless innings. The Dodgers have not allowed a run in thirty three consecutive scoreless innings. That matches the postseason record set by the nineteen sixty
six Baltimore Orioles. The Oriols of sixty six did all of that in the World Series, but that's how dominant the Dodgers have been. Shut out the Padres after the third inning of that game, then shut them out in Games four and five, and then shut out the Mets in Game one yesterday nine to nothing. This is from NCI ninety five. Gameler I was able to get Jayden Daniels Offensive Player of the Year forty five to one
at fan duel last week. He's thanking cleve Ta cleif Ta likes likes Jayden for Offensive Play of the Year, Aaron Shotz does not like a quarterback for Offensive Player of the Year. One voter's opinion, and Brian M. Peterson talking about Doug Peterson using half of his rest in London game planning, the other half looking at flats to just stay there after he gets fired when they somehow lose sixteen to thirteen. All right, we'll get some more retweets coming up.
More games here. Week seven in the NFL, which got all right early window. This is one Eastern Seahawks at Falcons. Seahawks with the extra rest, they lose to the forty nine Ers. Last Thursday night, Gino was thirty of fifty two for three to twelve in defeat. They gave up four hundred and eighty three total yards to the Niners. That night.
They were minus three a turnovers. Atlanta, it's a game that's sort of the late window. Yesterday was the afternoon window. Was kind of lame. Atlanta beat Carolina in case you missed it. After Carolina took a seven and nothing lead bjon In from five to tied at seven late late first quarter. Carolina then went up ten to seven. That would be their last lead because then after that it was bjon In from seven after Cousins hit Pits for fifty two. They ended up with a two point conversion
because of a penalty. A low block by Carolina on the touchdown run, so fifteen to ten at that point six Zho three left in the second quarter. Carolina then got a punt blocked Cousins to London from three. After that twenty two to ten, and then Carolina was just in catchup mode.
But they were close.
They you know, they ended up the first half with a Dalton de Xavier Lagette seven yard touchdown pass on a seventy six yard drive to cut it to twenty two to seventeen. Then it was a field goal fest. It finally got to twenty eight to twenty. So here's the you know you talk about when did you know the game was done? Kind of thing that people used
to run? Twenty eight to twenty Atlanta Carolina with the ball one score game second and eight at the Atlanta thirty two Dalton pick by a J. Terrell junior and that was it because then Atlanta went nine plays eighty five yards Algeran from two thirty five to twenty. That's how it would end. Thirty eight to twenty is actually how it would end. Cousins nineteen of thirty for two twenty five in victory, Algier eighteen for one to five and a touchdown Bijon fifteen for ninety five and two touchdowns,
Atlanta hosting Seattle. I'll say Atlanta minus three, because what else could you make that?
Yeah, you are right on that is three. At DraftKings did see some two and a halves out there. I think they mainly got gobbled.
Up though, all right, so far like New England a little in all of this. Yeah, me too, not sureman a Benett, but yeah, what's next?
Me too? All right?
Still in the early window. Titans at Bill's okay, Bill's sight unseen. They played tonight again small favorite against the Jets. Both Kelly and I are on Buffalo.
Tonight.
Tennessee loses to Indianapolis. Indian Appolis started ten play seventy yard drive Flacco to downs for twenty two touchdowns, seven and nothing. Then after at Tennessee three and out in Indianapolis, Flacco second attend at his own thirty six picked by Amani Hooker. Tennessee turned that into a three play twenty seven yard drive Levis to Nick Westbrook a Keena from
nine out. We're tied at seven apiece ten to seven Tennessee and then ten to ten at the half, and then the third quarter starts Tennessee fourteen play seventy seventy yard drive that took eight minutes and forty one seconds off the clock, pollared in from twenty three on third and nineteen. Wow, what a sieve of a defense on that play. Seventeen to ten Tennessee six nineteen left the third quarter. Like the Titans gonna win this football game? Yeah,
not so much. Indianapolis. They got it to first and goal at the four, they had to settle for a Matt Gay twenty two yardfield goal. It's got it to seventeen to thirteen at the beginning of the fourth quarter. But then after another Tennessee three and out, eleven play seventy five yard drive flaccot to Pittman Junior, who even supposed to play in this game.
Yeah, that was weird.
He catches a jump ball in the end zone from ten yards out, touchdown twenty to seventeen Colts halfway through the fourth quarter. Then later, after the team's trade three and outs, Levis on second and nine at his own thirty one pick by Julian Blackman. Then after an Indianapolis three and now Tennessee would get the ball back at their own three pitchy, pitchy, wou Wo goes nowhere? Paul Game twenty to seventeen Indianapolis, levis your boy? Yeah, sixteen of twenty seven for ninety five.
Hey, as long as he keeps throwing ironts, that's all I care about. Yeah, well he did.
He threw one yesterday, one touchdown, one pick, only two hundred and forty one total yards of offense for Tennessee. They also had eleven penalties for one thirteen, which ain't good. They're not good.
No, they're not. Because this Colts defense has been horrible and if you you couldn't do anything at home against that, that's bad. How do you feel about this Colt? The Colts injury reporting that US people seemingly had a pretty big issue with, which I don't really know. It's just odd when it's two right, because you had Anthony richardson that it looked like he was gonna go all week it doesn't end up going. And then Michael Pittman with the back stuff where he thought he was going to be out.
We thought we thought he was. We talked about it on the show earlier in the week that we thought he's out. I think if you're the cult, you have a dilemma. Right, we'll get to them, But I think you have a dilemma. It's like, are we trying to win football games? Or are we trying to see what the kid can do? Because I don't think there's any reason to say that Joe. If you say who's better for any one game right now, it's Joe Flacco, right, Yep.
He's proven that he's a super Bowl champion. He had a nice five game stretch with the Browns last year. There's nothing really bad about his performance here in this victory. Again, I don't know what you do. If you're the cults, Are you trying to make this season a season? Are you trying to mess around?
Yeah? God they are somehow three and three? Well, that's right, Like I guess you can't really Yeah, you can't really throw in the towel yet, which I would think I would think means go back to Anthony Richardson, let him play. See what you got, Well that's your guy.
Once they find out you own MVP taken On, I'm sure we'll sway their thinking. That's right, But this isn't This isn't about Indianapolis. This is about Tennessee at Buffalo. Yeah, Buffalo a sight unseen. They got to be a touchdown favorite against the Titans. Will Levis's dreadful dude. Will Levis has no accuracy, can't anticipate.
He's just well.
There was a great tweet from somebody. Wish I could give credit because I can't remember who it was, but they said Will Levis had something to do with the fact. They were saying it was all about potential in the first place, but there was never anything to go on.
With that potential in the first place. Yeah, I mean, I think the other one with yeah, what a couple of the others that I saw is okay, you you improved your coaching staff, improved your offensive weaponry, and somehow the quarterback is looking worse this year. That's got to be a major red flat.
But you didn't improve your coaching staff. It was Mike Rabel. Should never have gotten rid of him in the first place.
I think they met offensive coaching the offensive side.
Yeah, well, downgrade from the top Buffalo minus seven hosting Tennessee eight and a half. I don't have a problem with that.
I don't either. If it was anything below seven, I would add a problem with that. Yeah, I actually put them in a swell teaser already with that side of the bills.
All right, you know I usually I usually say man like way too much, but that's worked out.
Okay.
The last couple of weeks so far don't like much at all. Kind of like New England getting all those points against Jacksonville in London. We'll see many more games to get to Week seven in the National Football League. Guessing lines right here on a numbers game at vs These Sports Betting Network.
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What women could bet too? That's right? Yeah, people could bet. That's right. It's this player. Yeah, that's right. Every time I every time I hear the beginning of that read, I always think it's, uh, are you the Are you the type of guy that likes to roum around? Are there the wonderer? Wherever that song goes?
Oh see, I was doing a hell cool ja, I'm the type of guy. Oh okay, Yeah, anyway, that one went over in my head. Everyone said I should say, okay, let's go and let's see if we can find some value.
All right, Sunday early window Bangles at Browns.
Bangles at Browns. Oh, the old classic AFC North Battle we were all looking forward to.
Before the season.
Man, this looked good on paper before the season. Did you see this game?
Last night?
While while the Dodgers were blasting the Mets nine to nothing over there on old Sunday Night football. The Bengals and Giants were playing what's the opposite.
Of a masterpiece? Hmm.
First of all, first drive of the game, Cincinnati goes eight, play sixty nine yards. Burrow in from forty seven.
That was incredible.
And when I say in from forty seven, I want to say that the half the football field was abandoned by all humanity and he just ran with everybody on the other side of the field. Seven to nothing Bengals just three and a half minutes into this ball game, and you're like, ah, this.
Is gonna be a great game. Here's the rest of the fear. It was so bad Gil Like, somebody asked me if that was it was a designed run for Joe Burrow, and I immediately laughed, like no. But then you see the replay and it's like, well, Joe Burrow's mind, he might have been thinking that way, like I'm taking off if all these guys go with.
Them after a Giants punt in Cincinnati three and now this is the only other interesting part of the first half was the Giants actually got it first intent at the Cincinnati fourteen, Daniel Jones shunned his first read which was a dump off to Tyrone Tracy and you're instead he waited too long. He was hit by bj Hill ball high in the air, picked by Jermaine Pratt. Yeah, here's the rest of the half.
You're ready.
Team Strade punts Cincinnati three and out. Team Strade punts, team straight, three and ounce halftime. It's a very exciting game. Then in the second half, Giants go on fourth and two incomplete. Cincinnati is like, oh wow, we're set up at the twenty six yard line of the Giants first and ten. Zach Moss hit Biocarake fumbles, Michael McFadden recovers. Then the Giants do go sixteen plays, seventy nine yards and six to forty five. They convert a fourth and
two and a fourth and one along the way. P I in the end zone helped Tyrone Tracy in from one. We are tied at seven with five forty eight left of the third quarter.
First home.
What is that the first home touchdown for the Giants this year?
Oh man? Is that detail correct?
Wow? Cincinnati got to third and goal at the one. Now tie game seven apiece. Remember the spread is what Bengals minus four in this game?
Yeah? Three and a half four four, well even got four and a half closed it.
All right, So it's seven to seven. Cincinnati got the third and goal to one, A holding call negated it would be touchdown, so they had to settle for McPherson thirty seven yard field goal ten to seven Cincinnati closing seconds of the third quarter. Then the Giants fourth and one at the Cincinnati forty six, Jones snuck for the for the first down.
It was the past ten. I was just thinking, as you say snuck or sneaked, this was a sneak play in this context.
Yes, okay, so they get it, is what I'm saying. But they end up having to get a Joseph forty seven yard field goal a try he misses. Remember there's a new holder here, Jamie Gillan. The punter couldn't be the holder here, so we had a different sort of you know what do they call it in baseball? Pitcher and catcher battery, different holder. So it's still ten to seven, but Giants got the ball back fourth and three at the Cincinnati thirty six, incomplete intended for Slayton, with three
to zero one left in the fourth quarter. Ten to seven. Bengals now if you're a Bengals backer, you're like, Okay, this is probably not a good thing because three to zho one left in the fourth, I don't know if we're gonna be able to matriculate the ball down the field and get a field goal. Maybe we will since it Naty ends up third and twelve at their own thirty four Burrow a ridiculous against his body completion to Ioshavas. Then the next play, Chase Brown fumbles. The Giants have
every chance to recover and they can't. It goes out of bounds. So this is just this is the ultimate plinko finish to this game. Next play, of course, what happens Brown in from thirty seventeen to seven Bengals just it's just incredible the plink onness of this really, of all plays. If you're if you're a Giants backer, you're like, he had to get out, he had to house it.
Really, yeah he did?
Uh?
Seventeen to seven Giants did the exact same thing Sean Payton did.
Earlier in the day.
They decided to kick the field goal first when they got in a field goal range, but Joseph with the different holder misses the forty five yard or Katie bar the or it's over. Bengals win it seventeen to seven, and somehow, after being just absolutely terrible in this game and giving the Giants every time the Giants give him a chance, the Bengals couldn't capitalize. Every time the Bengals would like, put the ball on the ground, here you go, take it. Take this game. The Giants couldn't recover it,
and then Chase Brown houses it. Bengals somehow cover seventeen to seven in victory, and then Cleveland. Cleveland actually looked a little I mean, I don't even want to say
they looked a little feisty. The reason they looked a little feisty is because they were able to tie this game at ten apiece at the very end of the first half because Jake Elliott up ten to three, had a fifty seven yard field goal try blocked by Miles Garrett returned by Rodney McLeod fifty yards to the residence yep ten ten a half time, but.
He easily could have been thirteen three, right exactly.
It ends up thirteen to thirteen. Philadelphia four plays, seventy yard drive hurts the DeVonta Smith for forty five, twenty to thirteen halfway about halfway through the fourth quarter. Then Hopkins thirty one yard field goal after getting here's the thing, it's thirteen killing. Now, if you have a chance to cut a one score lead to a one score lead, you always take that opportunity. But here's the thing, Clee.
They ended up with a Hopkins thirty one yard field goal after getting it to the Philadelphia three, but then ended up with two false start penalties that sent them backwards. So with three point fifty four left, Stefan's game. By the way, Deshaun was six of six on this drive and he was eleven for eleven and a half at this point.
Was it two false starts or a delayed game? In a false start?
I thought there was a delayed game. I thought it was two false starts. Yeah, anyway, Stefanski decides, well, it's the fourth and goal now is way too long. I'm gonna kick the field goal. They never saw the ball again. Philadelphi would run out the clock. Philly wins at twenty to sixteen, and that, by the way, is why there was no carnage and survivor. Because Philadelphia was easily the most picked team and they just get by in this one.
Philly is not good, Dallas is not good. Washington is the cream of the crop of the NFC East.
Sorry, I had to get that in little editorially. Yeah, okay.
Was it Cincinnati at Cleveland?
Yep? Okay.
This is another one that's impossible to make this line. This is a brutal line.
What do I mean?
Both teams are god awful, but the Bengals are a little less god awful. But they can't be three, right, I said, Bengals minus two.
And a half, you're a little lights four and a half. Oh, I don't think they deserve that, do they? I agree with you, But man, this is another one. You're going with the Browns.
No, But I'm just saying four and a I mean, listen, I'm not betting this game was How is four and a half seems as random as my two and a half. It's an impossible game to make a line for Cincinnati looked terrible last night. Giants might not suck by the way. Giants are pretty yeah, John, Giants are not bad. Giants are not bad, so maybe I shouldn't say that. But Cleveland played Philly no worse than I mean, I don't like Cleveland was. Oh, they were fine yesterday, they didn't
get blown out. Let's put it that Deshaun Watson his best half of football that he's had this year.
I gosh, you, I mean, you're right about that half. But four and a half I struggle with that. Why is jamis not in whatever it was? One half? He didn't do anything, He didn't win the game.
Two hundred and thirty million reasons? Why so at Cincinnati minus four and a half. Why that's interesting to me? Okay, want to do one more?
Yeah, let's do it. Texans at Packers. Let's skip a pass. Let's hear it past Dolph. Okay, we don't have to talk about that. That's easy. Miami because Miami was on a bye. Correct.
And Indianapolis we talked about having staved off the Titans twenty to seventeen. Flacco in victory, Joe Flacco twenty two of thirty eight for one eighty nine, two touchdowns, one pick.
He was not sacked.
Man, Who's the worst team in football? Is that the Titans?
Is it the Browns? Is it the Dolphins? Sorry Dolphins fans, but you're in the conversation Indiananthers, Pampa and then there's the Panthers, of course, Indianapolis minus three. This is Colts three and a half.
Wow, that's about the amount of excitement I have, even more disrespectful than I thought. Yeah, this this one in the last one. I'm not even though there's you know, perceived value, I'm not racing like I would the Patriots.
I like, still better. Are the Colts really five and one? Ats? Wow? Well the expectation is so low on these lines. Yeah, I mean, I was surprised that they're three and three straight up.
Now are we getting to it? We don't know if we're getting to what's the story is?
This is?
This is?
This is the last game where two is not allowed to play. I've lost count.
Yeah, I don't. I don't know. I don't think. I mean, I haven't heard anything about two coming back anytime soon. Yeah.
Well, I'm just talking about the ir was he had to miss for it window? Yeah, Colts minus three and a half? Tick higher than I would have expected. We'll come back more Sunday morning games, including the one we just passed over Houston at Green Bay. Looking for value. Week seven in the National Football League. That's how we do it, right here in a numbers game at VSA the Sports Betting Network.
Numbers game on VSA the Sports Vetting Network.
Back on a numbers game, someone tweeted in and said, don't listen to.
The waggle people.
You're right at Spartillo, Oh Big, Big Spanish Wars on Twitter. If you're listening in Spanish, that's how it is, skill, Alexander. It's Ketley Biddlin trying to extract value guessing lines week seven in the National Football League, a tradition unlike any other. We've been doing this for uh. I want to see like twelve or thirteen years now. Yeah, Christy mishbooka We miss you, of course, pouring out of forty for Chrissy, not literally just because he's not doing the show.
We kill a lot.
We get tweets at beating the book. Jimmy Lopez, Thank you, Jimmy Lopez. You're the guy who actually caught the reference. I'm the type of guy because are you who can't control your girl?
Something like that?
Hell cool Jay. Back in the mid eighties, this is from sly Bride DJ Slybriye. Thanks to Gil, I'm now stuck saying to myself, I do declare like fal Corn leg Gorn. Every time an onside kick is declared in the NFL. Thanks, Gil, appreciate. It's because they use the word declare, and I've just imagined that they have to. They should have to say it like that.
See. I like the generational thinking because I always think if I hear the word declare, I think Michael Scott yelling, I declare bankruptcy.
Oh no, do declaire Rhodes. Who has it worse the cowboys of the Jaguars. That's a great question. What you're referring to. I imagine Rhodes is the albatross that is the mega salary around their respective quarterbacks, and the what that does is hamper ham string your salary cap moving forward. And so I don't know the answer. I mean, again, it's really bad.
But this is this again.
We've said it a million times on this show. This is the cruelty of the economics in the National Football League where teams are forced at that point, once the rookie deal is over and it's coming to an end, they've got to decide do we pay because the market means it's a nine figure deal for these guys. Do we keep the guy we have or do we start
from scratch to the quarterback. And the problem is is that you don't often know after those four or five years if that's in fact a guy that can lead you to the super Bowl, because remember, the only quarterbacks that lead you to a super Bowl are what Hall of famers and guys on rookie deals who overperformed their rookie deal.
That's right.
But if you have one of these tweener guys like a Dack and like a Trevor and like a Cousin's.
I'll still say, I all answer that question, I'd still much rather be the Dallas Cowboys than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just beyond that thing.
Though, I mean a franchise owner, Yes, I'd rather.
Have Dak over over Lawrence. And I think there are as much as we want to sit here and say, the only thing that works with the Cowboys offense is Dack to Seed Lamb. At least it works, right. They both might be overpaid, but at least it works. Yeah.
Problem is their general manager slash owner Matthew Mayberry. If the Giants recover that Brown fumble, I win my fantasy match. Instead, he scores a touchdown and I lose for the second time this year on the last playoff Sun and End Football, Thanks Drake London and Chase Brown. Matthew Mayberry is speaking for every player who's ever played Fantasy in any week where they get hosed. Angular Rhythm. Tom Stefan haven't seen touchdown run like Burrow since Steve bonos seventy five yard
touchdown run years ago. I still remember the offensive lineman twenty yards downfield looking for someone to block.
That was incredible. It was I don't like I kind of laughed after, you know, at first two, but you're like, man, Burrow's got some wheels and he looks like he is running as fast as he possibly can, and it was impressive.
Charlie d Usa number one gil I was ready to yell out I do declare in the Giants game last night, but they missed the field goal.
Lol.
And let me just say this tweet last night from somebody after that game. Would I have kicked? Was that the right move for them to kick the field goal the Giants to cut it to a one score game even though they missed the field goal. And I think just like in the Sean Payton the Broncos game earlier, Yes, it is the proper thing to do. The only calculus that the Giants would would The only way you get me off that is that you could say that we already saw that the Giants missed a field goal with
the new holder earlier, and so maybe you don't. That's the only sort of counter argument. But if it's the same, you know, if all things being equal, you absolutely cut it to one score at that point, because otherwise you'll waste all your time trying to get the first score and then you have no chance whatsoever.
And Craig Joseph only three for six beyond forty yards this year.
Yeah, all right, let's go to early games still on Sunday. Good one Texans at Packers. Texans at Packers. Ooh, that is a good game. That's a good game, real good Texans. We didn't really talk about because it wasn't really much to talk about, but they took a big lead against New England. They just sort of traded touchdowns down the stretch. Stroud was twenty of thirty one for one to ninety two in that game, three touchdowns, one pick, Joe Mixon thirteen for one oh two in a touchdown.
They were plus three in turnovers. Running backs matter, gil to mixing being backs big, that's for sure.
Yeah, it does matter. And then there's green Bay. Green Bay wins yesterday, easy peasy in their game against Arizona late first quarter or actually, you know, not late first quarter but early first quarter, but a couple drives have already happened. Green Bay five plays, forty four yards loved to Jaden Reid from five out, seven to nothing green Bay. After Arizona punt, green Bay eleven plays eighty yards love to Dobbs Romeo Dobbs, that is, from ten, fourteen to nothing,
Arizona three and out. Narvisen would make a thirty six yard field goal seventeen to nothing, Arizona three and out. Then Green Bay first play loved to Watson Christian Watson for forty four wide open, twenty four to nothing Packers. At this point in the game, with four thirty two left in the second quarter, the first downs were thirteen to one and the total yards were two hundred and fifty one to thirty four. That's that's not good anyway. You don't really know need to know about the rest
of the game. Thirty four to thirteen. The Packers would sort of cruise from there, I will say green Bay.
By three.
In a hook, I'll say three and a half over Houston.
On the other side, it is two and a half. Ooh, okay, I think I like the pack then I think those are disappearing though two and a half. There are threes out there. Yeah, give me the two if I can find a two and a half, Yeah, I think you might. You might need to need to be running to make that one.
My very pristine top ten power rankings, which look beautiful from week to week these days, has both of these teams very high. But I'm a little hi, I'm a little higher on green Bay at this point. Remate like right now, right now.
You said, Okay, who's in the NFC Championship.
Yeah, it's somewhere between Minnesota fans are gonna hate me for yeah, I know, but it's somewhere between the Niners, the Packers, and the Lions. Yes, And I think the Vikings are like Vikings in Washington are that tier right below? I think Washington's another tier but okay below Minnesota. Yeah, yeah, Oh, I'll fight you, but I do. Let's put it this way. I think the Lions, Niners, and Packers are the cream
of the crop. Minnesota hasn't. I mean, there's no counter argument to Minnesota currently.
I get it.
But that's my hunch that those are the three best teams I agree with, and I just think green Bay's now in the AFC, Houston's five and one. There's there's not much bad you can say about them, But I just without Nico Collins, they look a little diminished to me.
Nkos you wouldn't.
See it against New England, but I do feel that way.
Yeah, I have a feeling I'll be staying away from this one. I'm a little bit higher on Houston. I'm right there with you at green Bay. I mean, I think, without a doubt green Bay. As far as the good teams, green Bay and Minnesota have been the most impressive on the season. Let's do one more here, all right, Lions at Vikings, Oh there you go. Well we'll learn a lot here.
Detroit crushes Dallas, I mean crushes him forty seven to nine a game that the only thing that went right for Dallas early was after they were up three to nothing on an Aubrey field goal. Well, they were up three to nothing, largely because on that drive, Dowdell caught a fifteen yard There was a fifteen yard played Dowdell which deflected off another receiver, and then Dak had an interception nullified by penalty. So that's the only reason why they were able to get a three to nothing lead.
Then it was all Detroit.
Detroit.
Montgomery great run in from sixteen golf to Tim Patrick for forty two. Two plays before that seven to three, Dallas would matriculate, but third and five of the Detroit seven, Dak was picked in the end zone by Brian Branch. It get to ten to three Detroit. Then a three play drive golf to Laporter from fifty two off a flea flicker seventeen to three. Later in this game, by the way, they tried to do a lateral to a
Pine Sewol, but that guy nullified. It was twenty to three, then twenty seven to three, then twenty seven to six at the half, and it was just more of the same in the second half. Five play seventy yards go off to Jamison Williams for thirty seven to make it thirty four to six. Then then the worst part of the game for Detroit, I really I kind of buried the headline. It was a pyrrhic victory for Detroit because these at twenty excuse me, at thirty four to six.
This is in the fourth quarter. The second play on the ensuing drive, Aiden Hutchinson sacks Dak, but his leg sort of whipsaws against a teammate. Gruesome breaking of the leg carted off and that was really kind of a pall over the rest of this game. Detroit ends up winning at forty seven to nine, a four eighty six to two point fifty one total yards advantage plus five
and turnovers. I left out a couple more turnovers by Dallas late won on a Dack pick again to Brian Branch won on a Cooper rush pass that was picked by Kirby Joseph just plus five and turnovers. My god, forty seven to nine Detroit at Minnesota. These these spreads are hard.
To make this week. Some of these, I say, pick them. I don't know what else to say.
Vikings two point favorites. Yeah, this should be interesting. I think I'm gonna be on Detroit.
I did so. I've only made two bets so far. I tied, but I brought up the bills earlier as a teaser leg I went I do that early if I'm gonna make those involving a Monday night game, right they obviously they play tonight. I think you need to go a little bit lighter on if you're gonna make bets, because injuries can happen. But I did. I did a Lions bills teaser teased up the Lions. Yea, it was with you.
I thought this would be a little closer to a pick them. The Aiden Hutchinson thing is interesting because again we say that beyond quarterbacks, very few players in this league matter to a spread, and we don't really know the impact of him being out yet. Yeah, it's having a great year.
Two that was terrible and gruesome and just awful.
Two good games though, Man, Houston, Green Bay and Detroit Minnesota. There you go, There you go, NFL there or something if that used to green Bay stays two and a half. I'm all over green Bay coming back right here. In a numbers game, the Numbers told the story always Dodo's idiots who believe in the analytics.
This is a Numbers game with Gil Alexander.
Our number two of a Numbers game at Visa the sports betting network Visa dot Com Game Plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
We appreciate however you're taking us in.
It doesn't matter which way we like it. Either way and any of the ways. I should say, always grateful. It's Gill Alexander, It's Kelly Bidland live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
Play a little tennis after the show today, Oh are you very exciting? Great weather.
If this weather, if this this moment in time of the calendar, could be bottled here in Las Vegast, some real estate would be ten times the value. Yeah, yeah, not miserable outside, but you could still go to the pool, or you know, go.
Play actual tennis. Who played tennis with?
Uh?
Okay? Oh okay. It's like, why didn't you mention? I don't know if we wanted to. I don't know if we wanted to mean to tell Okay, we get tweets at beating the book.
By the way, I made two bets, already just made them New England plus six against Jacksonville in London, and I bet Houston excuse me, Green Bay, pardon me minus two and a half hosting the Houston Texans.
Still out there like it?
Okay, those are in the old account courtesy of the first hour of guessing lines. We'll get to more here momentarily looking for more value. Maybe we will find some, maybe we won't, but first we get tweets. This is from Shades of Mako Shades of Maco. Do you recall the average circum million's quarterly record for the five week quarters? I know sixteen and four was noted as a low
winning record for the first four week quarters. Yeah, sixteen and four was the lowest ever winning I think for a four week quarter, and that makes sense based on everything we learned and lived through in the first four weeks of the season, Survivor being the greatest barometer of that sixteen and four eight This is amazing. If you think about it, you gotta go. I don't know the answer to your question. I don't know the numbers, but you have to go like twenty two and three kind of thing.
Yeah.
I was thinking, yeah, you think it's the average? Is that high?
I was actually a winner? Yeah, I don't know what twenty one and four.
Yeah, that's right. I was thinking, like, because they go by the points, right, so I was gonna think I was thinking twenty and a half to twenty one average, but be on the low side. You might be on the eye side.
It might be right there to well, I think you're right. I think it's probably around twenty and a half or twenty one and four. I mean, that's the thing is, there's no margin for error.
I'm on pay skill. What are only only three more weeks to go?
I was gonna say, if the Bills win tonight, I'm eight and two and I'm still not.
Really doing that great nine. If I'll have a nine in one if the Bills get home tonight.
Oh wow, Okay, you are definitely on pace then yeah, okay, Kelly Biddlin, Manda beat.
This always happens. Does this happen to you too? Where you get the how long we had two years or three years?
Now?
With the five week quarters? Yeah, I get off to a great quarterly start, but it's always like two weeks and it's always in a five week always the five week one. Always.
Brian m would be pouring out of forty for Chrissy or a seven to fifty of men a chefit.
So good call, good call.
This from Jed O'Connor. I hear Ryan Tannehills looking for a job. Wonder if Tennessee would be a fit, You're not kidding, man. And then Kevin Ryan Rode king KR. He says, like Gil, why is everyone dumping on Sean Payton? I totally agreed with the field goal decision, and it had nothing to do with the fact I had Broncos teased up to plus eight and a half. It was completely the right call. There is no bigger critic of Sean Payton than me, but it was completely the right
call for them. And then Ryan Tajirdsma, who says a Vikings fan here, but I agree with you about the NFC Packers, Lions, Niners are the top tier. Viking sample size too small to elevate them to that tier. That's from Ryan to Jeers.
Viking very rational.
Yeah, I think most Vikings fans are probably rational. Oh is there one more here, Trip Tepper? How significant is NFL first half scoring? Small sample? But the team leading at halftime is sixty four and twenty three straight up, including ten and one in Week six. Only four games tied at half this year, something worth monitoring for in
game or second half betting. Well, they're obviously going to have a winning record straight up because they have the lead, But what you're saying is it's a very significantly high one that there's not a lot of comebacks.
Here is the point.
I don't know what it is compared to other years, but I will say this just based on based on yesterday's games, that ten and one, just just even not even thinking about what the scores were, it completely checks out in your brain because there was not a lot of drama yesterday this week at all.
I loved it, but yes, not a lot of drama. The other one that kind of stuck out to me, that's similar, Gill, like, did you know I type up all these the trends and everything each week? How about away teams ATS fifty one, thirty six and four? Yeah, home field? Is they not really predictive? None of this is.
I don't think it's really predictive, but it's interesting. Last one Mantis Toboggan Ooh, I like that. Would the Jazz sunny? Would the je trade Trevor? I'd like to see him with a fresh star, fresh start in a Brown's uniform. Now we have gibberish there, but I will tell you the trade he's you know what, the trade he purposes. The trade he purposes is Deshaun Watson, hold on, then
he puts a laugh emoji next to it. Deshaun Watson, Amani Cooper, and Denzel Ward for Trevor for Trevor Lords, I think the Jaguars if you say the who says no thing? I think the Jaguars are like, wait, wait a minute, you're giving me Deshaun Watson, Amani Cooper and Denzel Ward for Trevor Lords, I'll do And then as soon as they're about to say I'll do it, they go, wait, Deshaun Watson, Oh, never mind, a lot of money to figure out because of that other stuff. Yeah, okay, we'll
get some more tweets coming up. Let's let's find some more value, all.
Right, early windows still Eagles at Giants.
Good Eagles, as we talked about, beat the Browns, hurts Jalen that is sixteen for twenty five for two sixty four in victory a j.
Brown.
Wow, he made he does make a difference for this team, six for one, sixteen in a touch. They held Cleveland to two hundred and forty four total yards.
But you know it's not saying that much.
And then the Giants, as we talked about, they lose to the Bengals and somehow don't cover Daniel Jones twenty two of forty one for two h five and a pick. Eleven carries for fifty six yards. Talking about the Bills best play is, you know, just tucking the ball under with Josh Allen with apologies to Tyrone Tracy Junior. Giants' best play is still Daniel Jones tucking in. But Daniel Jones takes so many hits. Oh my god, it's incredible. For like a couple of years now, that's been their
best thing. And yes, he takes so many years. He's also coming off like a leg injury, like you can't.
He just didn't. The defense has been impressive though for New York.
This team's been This team has been significantly better than I thought Gil and how many wins they have this is This is another really hard spread. This week has been the toughest spreads to make. This is another tough one.
Yeah, this is a tough week. I have many bets.
Yesterday Philly minus two and a half.
He says three and a half other side of the three.
Yeah, see, I mean again, this is one of those where I'd say value on the Giants. I'm I'm racing to bettt I'm not, but I don't see how the Eagles are justified being more than three against this is This is a lot of muscle memory, this market on the on the Eagles, They're not good. They're really not that good at football, the Philadelphia Eagles. So that seems a little high to me.
Yeah, I'm I'm gonna give them a little bit more time to get there. Let their weapons are back now, you know, the wide receivers are back. Let's see how this team looks. I'm gonna give them a little bit more time. But yeah, they're definitely they definitely got some warning signs, that's for sure. Next, all right, heading to the late window. Four five Eastern Raiders at Rams.
I do like when the London games happen. That again, there's fewer games in that opening window to deal.
With, to watch more of them. Raiders at Rams.
Raiders, Oh God, Raiders at Rams. Rams are gonna have extra rest here. The Raiders lose to Pittsburgh. This game is just I didn't even know what to say about the Raiders. Throw them into the conversation about.
Who's the worst team in football? Good call ye.
Boswell fifty two yarder to make it three to nothing Pittsburgh. But then when the Raiders got the ball, ten places seventy yard drive Alexander Madison in from three touchdown seven to three Raiders. Later Boswell would cut it to seven to six on a forty nine yarder, and then later still later, Vegas second and seven at their own thirty Dylan Lobby hit by TJ. Watt fumbles Keanu Ben recovers
set up at the Las Vegas thirty. Pittsburgh then had a roughing the passer penalty go against Fields that nullified a would be pick. Instead, Fields would take it in fourth and goal from the three to two point drive fils twelve to seven Pittsburgh into the half. Then aj Cole would have a punt block to begin the second half. At the end of the Raiders first drive, recovered by Chris Smith, Pittsburgh set up at the Vegas nine, they would have to settle for a Boswell field goal thirty
seven yarder fifteen to seven. So Pittsburgh basically with all these opportunities, it's like.
Hey still in the game. Take it from us.
Vegas couldn't Las Vegas couldn't have blige Pittsburgh next time they had the ball. Seven plays, eighty yards nase In from thirty six maybe the best run of his career. Maybe great run twenty two to seven Pittsburgh that he thought he was gonna be good? Right, Oh, yes we did. That's the first non Justin Fields rushing touchdown for Pittsburgh in twenty twenty four.
That done, nausey run.
Wow.
Then Las Vegas after a O'Connell to Madison would be touchdown pass was nullified by penalty.
Two plays later, third and goal at the one.
A mir Abdulla hit by wat fumbles, Deshaun Elliott recovers. Oh god, next time Las Vegas had the ball again. Still, what's the score? Twenty two to seven? Still Las Vegas third and nineteen at their own four. O'Connell picked by Dante Jackson, Field's first play in from seven, twenty nine to seven. The game would end thirty two to thirteen. The Raiders stink minus three in turnovers in this game for Las Vegas. The Rams are off extra rest. I'll say the Rams minus four and a half.
Rams five and a half. Okay, that dead zone, yeah, I'm probably low. The UH Steelers fans UH successfully took over Las Vegas once again yesterday.
Oh boh wow, we knew that was coming. Yeah. Yeah, By the way, I was, I was best fan base in football. They're the They're the you know, I say that, they they're the fan base that travels the best. But then Pittsburgh people quickly correct me and say, no, it's just that we've proliferate, Like Pittsburgh native Yinsers live all over the country, and so that's why, because we're everywhere, they will say. But with Las Vegas all all the you know, opposing fan bases come in, you knew that
it was gonna be overrun by Steelers fans. And yesterday morning, three hours before that game, I was outside and it was nothing.
But still wild. Yeah. I was on the strip. I'm like, oh my gosh, it is nothing but Steelers fans out wild. Yeah.
I want to do one more here. Uh we'd start one yeah yeah, yeah.
Let's not no, let's not no. Should we no? Too late?
By the way, I just want to say this though, not not only do I like New England and I already bet New England and uh, Green Bay. So far, there's a lot that I kind of lean but I don't really necessarily like again, I lean a little Detroit not doing that lean a little bit with the with the the Browns just because they're getting so much. But I'm definitely not racing a bet that.
I'm very interested to see where that Detroit Minnesota line moves throughout the week. Yes, because I don't really know. I don't really know I tied. I tied Detroit to a teaser early, but I wouldn't be surprised if that moved either way.
This is also definitely just so far, been the hardest week to make lines for. Again, Denver, New Orleans was difficult. Philadelphia and the Giants is a tough one to make a line for. Cincinnati Cleveland is a tough one to make a line for. It's interesting Week seven, but two good games so far Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit.
We'll see if there's.
More value on the other side. It's a numbers game, and recently these Sports Betting Network guessing lines.
Numbers game on v SID These sports Betting.
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Sure, let's do it as usual if get ready for the NBA season with the guy does Zach and JVT did an incredible job at all the team right ups.
I'm about halfway through it myself. Yeah, let's give him a shout. Manny Davison, Manny Davison, I'm gonna read this one first, Michael Burns, I am so glad. I am not subjected to games. There's so many bad teams. Work nights and sleeping Okay, there you will, okay, work knights and sleepy Manny Davison. There was an onside kick in the Steelers game yesterday, announcer says. Vegas declares, I say, I do declare as one would, and the wife shouts from the kitchen, I declare bankruptcy.
She loves the office. Let's see here, Cpt.
John Prescott, MD, I am sixteen ten and one in circum millions games not involving Will Levis. I am zero to three in games involving Will Levis. I hate Will Levis.
This is like me. This is like be with the Ravens and Lebar Jackson. I could never get them right. I bet against the Ravens. Lebar Jackson has a huge game against me. I bet on the Ravens. He has a terrible game.
That red light one of those grade school standardized test where it's like Kelly is wearing.
A blue shirt.
All blue shirts are extra large. Kelly is wearing an extra large Let's see here, Oh Phil knew, what was your guess? And the actual line of the Raiders Rams, I zoned out and missed it. My guess is Rams minus four and a half.
That was mine too.
Phil turns out of his minus five and a half. There you go, Phil, didn't want to miss one. But thank you for guessing along. That's the whole point. Gotta be interactive, got to do it on your own. Who cares what my guesses are. You should follow your constitution on your guests, although let me just tell you it works very well when I do it, all right, what's next?
Panthers at Commanders.
Four or five Eastern, Oh, Panthers weird to talk about Panthers. They lost to the Falcons Dalton twenty six of thirty eight or two twenty one in defeat. And then there's the subject of the Washington commodes, who, by the way, have been upgraded to commodoors. Washington loses to Baltimore, but I think I speak on behalf of all Taco holders fans. We're pretty pumped, pretty pumped about all this. Thirty to twenty three. No shame in that it was three to three.
Then Baltimore goes on a nine play ninety three yard drive. Dereck Henry in from three, despite Dante Fowler completely hip dropping him and then not getting called.
Just outside the red zone. What is with that this year?
If that is not called, then no hip drop should ever be called. Lamar handled it pretty well, though, He's.
Like, a nice play. I mean, this was part of Mixon's problem, right he went down with that injury. He's like, what I thought we were calling these this year? What's going on? Apparently we're not ten to three Baltimore.
The Washington answers eight play, seventy yards Daniels to the incomparable Terry McLaurin from seven, his third catch of the drive, ten to ten. Late second quarter, but not late enough because then Baltimore went on a ten play seventy eight yard drive. Lamar to Andrews from thirteen out seventeen to ten, Baltimore to the half. Because Cybert missed a fifty two yardfield, we actually got tipped. But then Cyber did hit a
fifty five yard er to begin the second half. Maybe it's seventeen to thirteen, but he just traded with Justin Tucker. Tucker hit a thirty two yard twenty thirteen, and then Baltimore took a two score lead eight plays ninety four yards. Another super long drive against that Washington defense set up by Lamar to Andrews for thirty eight, two plays earlier, two plays earlier than the actual touchdown, which was Henry In from seven twenty seven to thirteen Ravens two eight
left in the third quarter. But then Washington's like, not so fast, twelve plays seventy yards. Daniels to mcclaurin on fourth and goal from the six. How nice was that pass? How nice was that catch? It's a good thing they met each other, like you suggested week two or whatever.
Let me tell you something.
Once he met Terry mccauran after week two, it completely unlocked this offense. What it really did, It's like.
They realized they were good for each other.
Hill, It's like, you should really meet this guy. He's kind of glossom. Baltimore would go up thirty to twenty. Then Washington would cut it to thirty to twenty three with two forty eight left, but they'd never see the ball again. Baltimore would run out the clock. That is your final. Washington gave up four hundred and eighty four total yards to Baltimore one hundred seventy six on the ground.
That is the issue. Right.
The defense is not a top tier defense, and that will always be the issue against a really good football team like the Ravens. And yet they lose by just one score. Daniels twenty four of thirty five for two sixty nine, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. He remains the presumptive favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and some people might want to get I've heard some people are trying to get frisky with him both Offensive Player of the Year and and MVP.
By the way, yeah, what his odds came back a little bit because Caleb Williams a big game, But come on, it might be back to back in betting range. Come oh, come on, I'm gonna take it a step further than you just did. Their defense is terrible, Gil, it is awful. Yeah, and yet they still, like you said, only lost by seven. And I don't know how many times during that game I was like, Jaden Daniels stands in that pocket, throws a pass. I thought he was gonna be good this year.
I never never saw this coming.
And every decision he makes again appears to be the right one, and he just glides when he starts running. It's just is a beautiful thing to watch and was forcing that though. How many rookie quarterbacks do we see force running the ball when they have the ability?
Absolutely?
And I you know, I said the parallels to RG three and twenty twelve where we're getting all RG three vibes. Thank goodness that that comparison did not continue, because the Baltimore game in twenty twelve was the one where RG three first got hurt sprained his knee. Thank goodness that did not happen with Jane Daniels. So in my Washington brain, that hurdle has been cleared. And this kid is unbelievable.
And Caleb Williams could do anything he wants, but he ain't gonna be the rookie of the year as long as this guy's Healthie, Oh, I have a guess. Guess Washington's got to be more than a touchdout. I'll say seven and a hook.
You're dead on. There you go, there you go, there's one total of fifty two.
Next, I don't know why I wanted to throw that in the big one. Sunday four, twenty five, Eastern Chiefs at Niners. Oh I forgot this was Chiefs at Niners. This is a great week of the NFL. Minnesota, Detroit at Minnesota, Houston into green Bay, and the Chiefs at the Niners.
Actually, there's like a few great games that that a bunch. I don't care about it like at all, but yeah, at least on at least on paper.
My god, this is my number one and number two power rank team, so I think they are from most people in whatever order. Chiefs coming off extra rest. They are on a bye this week, and then San Francisco will have extra rest, not quite as much rest as the Chiefs obviously, but they will have the you know, ten days coming off that Thursday night game against Seattle, perty eighteen of twenty eight in victory on Thursday for two to fifty five, three touchdowns, No Pixie was not sacked.
Dbo three for one oh two in a touch Kittle five for fifty eight and two touchdowns, and they're thirty six to twenty four win over the Seahawks last Thursday night, four hundred and eighty three total yards plus three and turnovers. Uh San Francisco minus three right no gil, San Francisco minus one. Head DraftKings right now in most places disrespectful. I bet it Niners, right, I'd be in on the Niners. Two.
Maybe I'll bet it right now. I don't know if I was expecting I was thinking two and a half three is what we'd see. I don't know if I was fully expecting to see a three. I think books are a little hesitant to give the Chiefs a three.
But this is just one of these things where it's like, hey, if Patrick Mahomes did Patrick Mahomes things and wins this game, would anybody be shocked, including myself?
No, of course not.
But why would the Niners be less than three unless someone? I mean, they are they they are kind of a mass unit, right, They keep was it was it Thursday night. All these games run into each other where the guys kept getting banged up as the game went on.
Well, I mean they're running back situation, right, you keep going down.
Jordan Mason was was was definitely nicked up, but another guys could but they all came back in the game, right Yeah. And then and then of course there's the looming spector of Christian McCaffrey may never play for this team again. I have no idea what the story is
with Christian McCaffrey. So, but that shouldn't be let to me less than three is I don't know what the justification is because Kansas City, they're amazing, right, but at some point it's a body count with these guys, and I'll take the Niners here.
I'll bet the Niners. That'll be a third play for me, for sure. I'm with you, it's a bet for me already. But like you said, it's hard I think for these to ever be heavy bets because of what you said about Mahomes. Yeah, like the Mahomes.
Factor are still really wouldn't surprise anybody. Let's do one more here before we go.
Okay, Sunday Night, Jets at Steelers.
Jets at Steelers, Jets sight unseen. They play the Bills tonight. Obviously that game tonight down to a point, Buffalo favored by one point in what is a massive AFC East game in terms of AFC standings implications. If Buffalo wins it, they're your leader with cushion in the AFC East. If the Jets win it, they are technically the leader at three and having beaten Buffalo tonight, in other.
Words, division leader in your coach got fired and your head coach just got fired. This what was this game again? This is Jets at Steelers. Jets at Steelers. Oh, Steelers, They're always difficult. I'm not high on the Jets. I made the Steelers a two and a half point favorite. I'm not high on either team. Yeah, you're close, Steelers one and a half.
That that that all feels right, feels like this could this line will change after tonight, no matter what happens. This is another one that is super difficult to make it. Yeah, because I don't know where you're right. The Jets performance tonight is going to dictate a lot of this, obviously, but right at this moment, the Steelers are resourceful enough to merit them being the favorite.
How about TJ. Watt poking out two balls? Yes, incredible, he's so good.
You're talking about we talked about how if you're a non quarterback you don't mean anything to the line. That guy means something to the line. Yeah, so incredible player. We'll come back, we'll wrap up guessing lines, we'll talk look at the g Bank plays of the day, and we'll talk a little baseball.
Numbers game on said these Sports Vetting Network.
Back on a numbers game live from Circa guessing lines for week number seven in the National Football League. A good amount of value so far. I believe at least three.
We got the night games to get to those. Yes, Sunday night, Monday night. Did Sunday Night Jensen Steelers? Oh? Okay? Did we? Yes? We did?
Okay on the Monday night? Okay, we have two Monday night games. Oh, we have two Monday night games. I was counting. I was like, why do we have two more games?
Now?
You know what I did?
Screw up something. I didn't write down one but first Monday night game Ravens at Buccaneers. I gotta find one game I'm missing now I forgot we had. We came back to a double header on Monday night. I like that all right. By the way, Baltimore, what did you say? It was?
Baltimore Tampa? Yes, Baltimore at Tampa, Baltimore beating Washington twenty of twenty six, Lamar twenty for twenty six for three twenty three, one touchdown, one, Picky with sacked twice eleven carries for forty yards, and Henry oh Man twenty four for one thirty two and two touchdowns Zay nine for one thirty two again, four hundred eighty four total yards for the Ravens, one hundred and seventy.
Six on the ground. They are good at football.
And then Tampa Bay, as we talked about that roller coaster game against the Saints, was this a track meet? In the first half, Tampa Bay took a huge lead, Saints came all the way back and there were trading touchdowns, and then the second half Tampa Bay just rolled him fifty one to twenty seven winners over Spencer Rattler and the Saints. Mayfield twenty four of thirty six for three to twenty five, four touchdowns, three picks. They overcame those three picks once at god Win eleven for one to
twenty five, two touchdowns. Sean Tucker, Syracuse, I believe Shawn Tucker right. Fourteen for one to thirty six in a touchdown, five hundred and ninety four total yards. These are the two best offensive performances in football, I would say yesterday Baltimore at Tampa Bay Baltimore minus four, three and a half, three and a half.
Right now, Baker Mayfield, I love watching this year. Man. He is Yeah, he's been fun. You know what. I finally realized though yesterday Gil he's starting. He's starting to remind me of another Buccaneers all time great quarterback. That would be James Winston. Yes, that's what it is.
That's why I'm enjoying it so much. Yeah, well, all right, you ready for the second Monday Night.
Yes, which I did not write on the rundown by apologies. Uh, Chargers at Cardinals. This one starts nine o'clock Eastern, so we have a late start. Chargers at Cardinals. Oh that's awful.
Yeah, this already without even thinking about it, Probably the game I want no part of on the megapod.
This is new right, like we're doing. We did the staggered times before on the Monday two Monday night games, but I don't remember one that late. I don't either, but someone might correct us.
Yeah. Chargers at Arizona. Chargers again beating the Broncos and covering.
In the process.
Justin Herbert played great yesterday, twenty one of thirty four for two thirty seven, one touchdown. O Pixie was sacked three times. Dobbins JK. Dobbins twenty five or ninety six in a touch charges were plus two and turnovers. They out top the outtime of possession Denver thirty seven to
twenty three to twenty two thirty seven. Remember they had that twenty play drive that ended up in a field goal and then Arizona getting crushed by Green Bay Kyler twenty two of thirty two for two fourteen, one touchdown, no picks. He wasn't sack, but he did lose a fumble. They had thirteen penalties for one hundred yards. They were minus two and turnovers.
I don't know.
This is again in a week where some of these lines are really difficult to come up with. This is about as difficult as it is. But here, okay, I'll use a little deductive reasoning. Because the Chargers were surprisingly three point favorites against the Broncos last week, I suspect that they will be a tick of a favorite in this game, even though if I didn't have that pre knowledge, I would have said the Cardinals would have been slight favorites. But I'll say Chargers minus one and a half. Okay,
a great deductive reasoning, Thank you. I also think this is going to lead me to a gross bend and maybe you two then, because it is Chargers out two, three, a full three at DraftKings. Now, Marvin Harrison Junior, what concussion? Watch right left the game?
That big?
I'm not gonna say that's not uh not big. But you know, I've been kind of I've been kind of high on this Cardinals team. I think I'm gonna have to go to war with three and zero. Oh man, I mean it's that or nothing. Yeah, but I could.
This does not excite me in the least. Been Okay, Yeah, I think it's gonna tempt me. You're right about concussions.
You never know.
Malik Neighbors missed a second game yesterday with the Giants from a concussion. It's I mean, it is not a joking matter at all. So I yeah, charges by three again, huh.
On the road they are laying three? Wow? Yeah, not good at football, but you know what we were.
We were surprised by that line last week too, And I mean they rolled, they rolled, they rolled Cardinals. Cardinals are nothing, though, But the Cardinals are not the Broncos in terms of if they fall behind, they're done. Although I will say they look done yesterday, so I shouldn't say that.
They look They're like complete, complete opposite team it's right, like an offense that you might be able to believe it, but a defense that is not going to slow down the Chargers running game probably at all a lot of respect for the Chargers. I know we said this last week, but I'm back at it again. I totally I think the same thing.
Who knows, maybe the Cardinals will end up being like a fifth pick in millions or something like that. Man,