Come check it down, then.
Come low down. Then Friday morning, June thirty, twenty twenty three, it is the Beating the Book podcast, Gil Alexander. It is Wimbledon. Tennis is third major of the year, the grass Major, if you will, the shortest of all seasons in terms of services in tennis. Grass court season is like five weeks total. So this podcast and when we're sort of wedging it in, reflects the nature of that
grass court season. Just as it's hard for some players to squeeze in matches before Wimbledon, it was hard to squeeze in this podcast, but Drew Densick as always kind enough to join us to make it happen. You can follow him on Twitter at Whale Underscore Capper. He's the host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Moltur and of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge, and one of I don't know, I'm embarrassing maybe a little. I don't know if he's
gonna agree with this. One of the great global tennis minds that there is. How about that?
How about that? Drew?
You do it man?
Yeah, I'll take it. I definitely. I think there are many, many, many, many greater global tennis minds. But if you want to give me a qualification of being able to weave what I'm seeing on tennis into a handicap better than your average you know, tennis fan or prognosticator, that's fine. Yeah, we'll go with that.
Yeah he's so, here's the deal, everybody. So we're recording this at nine am Pacific twelve noon Eastern on Friday. The main draw begins in less than less than forty eight hours. They just put out the draw this morning in terms of overnight Stateside, so while we were sleeping, the men's and the women's draw came out. As other random grass court tournaments in England and Germany specifically wind down, and some people are quitting left and right. Ego, for instance, said,
I'm not feeling well. She decided after getting to the semis, her first semi have a grasscourt tournament. She's like, deuces. Sounds to me like she's just getting ready for Wimbledon. I don't know, but that's what it sounds like. So the concern this morning was because I just did a numbers game that started two hours before this. When I started a numbers game, I just wanted to talk about my thoughts on the draw and hopefully there would be
some numbers associated with the quarters. At that time two hours ago, they were just trickling in while I was talking about it. So it's just sort of doing it theoretically. And then some came in, we have women's numbers as we do this. I don't believe we have men's numbers. Are you seeing that.
I'm looking everywhere. There's men's quarters at a couple of spots. Okay, good, Yeah, there's there's a pretty good amount of numbers. I mean, my numbers now that we've got the draw and I've kind of run some sims and I have, you know, actual win probabilities for quarters here are hot off the press. I haven't even really I haven't even really digested these trying to kind of, you know, kind of give them
a little bit of added score. So you know, there's some we may say some things on this podcast that ultimately I either don't act on or revise as I continue to, you know, kind of go through this process. Because as you're mentioning like we're you're you're getting a very raw response reaction to you know, what is uh, what is a very interesting draw on a women's tournament that is going to be fascinated.
Yeah, do you want to start with the women or should we creshando to the women? Your call?
I I guess maybe let's go a step back and do a little bit of why is grass unique? Okay, why is this? Why is this a difficult handicap? Uh? You know we have you know, last time we you know, talked to Deep Tennis, it was, you know, the finale of clay season. Clay season is you know two two and a half months long. It even kind of is preceded by Indian Wells and Miami Indian Wells very you know,
very slow hard court. So you have a kind of a good sample of you know, player form, uh and kind of you know court speed specific form for clay. You know, as you head into Roland Garros and then everything gets flipped on its head, you know, and the entire game is different when you go from clay to grass, from rolling Garros to you know, the grass run up
and the grass run up is extremely compressed. There are players who you know, bagged it during clay because they're not especially good on that surface, who have come out of nowhere and have shown amazing forms so far on grass. There are players who you know, you thought were kind of putting something together this season who have stepped on
a grass court and just wildly underwhelmed. And you know, I think I tend to try to treat what we see in the run up on grass with extreme caution, just because there are lots and lots of examples of losing quarter bets in my portfolio where we're like, my god, did you see how good that guy looked in Halla? And then he shows up and loses round one, And there's that general sense of success on grass and the
lead up leading to success at Wimbledon. I don't think is surprising because of the compressed schedule, right, A lot of the best players don't take it seriously. They literally are like, this is too short. As you mentioned, Egas played a couple of warm ups. You know, anyone that bet on her to win in Bad Homburg for a championship is probably like, what the hell like? She's clearly the best in that field, not even close. Whatever the
outright markets were there, she was the right bet. But you know, her motivations are a little her motivations are a little, a little little different than everybody else's. So you know, it's it's the players who have already had success this season, who have already won titles, who have already gotten points, who have already won money. I don't think you can really look at their results and make
any draw any conclusions. And then the flip side is true if you have won a title on grass so far on the run up, but you know, you may be thinking, man, mission accomplished. You know, I'll go too, Bob, and I'll pick up, but I'll enjoy the pomp and circumstance. I'll have some strawberries and cream and then you know, it's a hardcore season, you know. So it's it's it's a little tough to read too much into what you've seen the last three weeks. And I'll just say exercise
some caution. In terms of the game on grass, it's different because the rallies are substantially shorter, sets are shorter. You know, there's just in general, you know, games are shorter, sets are shorter. Hold percentage is substantially higher on grass than it is on clay because the speed of the surface and because of you know, what it affords certain players who have especially strong fast serve or especially good placement with their serve. You know, they become quote unquote
grass specialists just because they're extremely tough to break. Because of that, tie breaks, you know, games in a given set go up relative to clay. You see a lot more a lot higher percentage of tie breaks, particularly in sets one on grass relative to any other surface. And
then as we know specifically look at Wimbledon itself. You know, the grass is a living organism and it changes from day one to day twelve of this tournament as it gets played on and as it gets beaten up, and you know, the weather that can you know, the weather and the moisture in the air and the heat all that definitely tends to, you know, change the overall surface speed from you know, from the beginning to the end of the tournament. And that's something you got to weave
in as well. It's different on center court than it is on some of the show courts, you know, So there is a million moving parts that make this this especially difficult and fun handicap. And I think you know, just kind of come into this with a little bit of a be ready to be surprised by some stuff that happens in week one.
Well, let me get back to that fun comment you just made, because in the end you said, oh it's fun. You know, part and parcel with everything you just say. Because somebody asked me on Twitter this morning during the show. They were like, hey, is this your best slam? I was like, oh, hey, I didn't say this was up felling. Oh hell right, it's not for all the reasons you stay. Also, you know, just the data, just the data itself, right,
there's less of it. And that makes sense because it's only like a five week grass court season, so really, you know, if I'm doing, if we're doing hard courts, I won't just speak for myself. Typically you're looking at year, you're looking at six months. Drew is also a guy who likes to look at recency Morgan, perhaps others, and
I think hardcore the numbers are so so predictive. And obviously there's different gradations of hardcore too, but generally speaking, hardcore numbers are really predictive in a way that grass isn't, And so it causes this thing where it's like, if you have somebody who's been at this for a long time, you can trust those grass numbers but you also if you have someone who doesn't have any at all, it's not like you can throw them out in the same
way that you could because you just don't. You don't really know in this very truncated thing because you don't have as much robust data for others. So I guess in the end, the question is use the word fun? Is it in the end for you? Or do you feel like this is more art than science?
If you will, Yeah, I know it's it definitely is more art, Absolutely I would, And I think your point is fair, Like what you have a huge, huge imbalance and sample size between players like Patrick Kvitova who have played a million grass matches and players like Ego who have not, and like coming up with a fair price for those two, if that's your final, that's art, it is, yes, And I would even say that, like because it's such
a serve oriented surface. The best bets I tend to make a Wimbledon come around the halfway point where you get a sense of how good of players serve is in terms of just rhythm, Like serve in my mind at least is a very hot hand kind of deal, right if you're serving with confidence? Yep, you know, you you continue to serve well. If you're playing tie breaks with confidence, you continue to play tiebreaks well. Like these are weird little mental wrinkles that are very much part
of the art of handicapping on grass. And you know, I think, like was remember the Wimbledon that Gabrine Gaberinier one, Yeah, yeah, So that one stands out in my mind because coming into that she was like what you would have had thought fiftieth choice, Like, you know, you hadn't seen anything to tell you that that was going to happen, but you watched enough of kind of week one from her and saw what, you know, what was happening with her game that week and the confidence she was playing it,
and you were like, oh my god, who's beating her? You know, like that that type of stuff happens. And you know Rebakan the last year, you know, I mean, I don't think there were probably people who thought before the tournament like, I'm just going to continue to better until she wins one, because she ultimately will I have confidence in her game blah blah blah. I'm sure people did that, but you I certainly didn't see any signal before.
You know, she showed up and you know, before you saw what she was playing with confidence wise, and particularly she ousted. Did she oust Ego last year?
Or was no cornad?
Did I believe Corny did? Okay? All right, Well, she had a couple wins either way. Eating Simone Halp in the semi finals is probably the one that stands out then, where you know, help was you know, I think she was pretty heavy favorite over Bakana in that moment, and that was one way match and uh, you know, she she wrote that momentum to a title. You don't need to really reflect anymore other than that on last year's final.
But the greatest thing about that final that I will always remember is her lack of her lack of a reaction when she won the first slam. She was just nonplused.
She was like business as usual. Yeah, So you know, I think, you know, I agree, it's art more than science. It's you know, you are stuck with a lot of sample sized issues with the data, so that takes you know, that levels the playing field a little bit. I don't think there's any kind of endboss grass tennis originator out there who's coming up with numbers and prices is in shaping the market to the way that like even just your average show who has been you know, coming up
with fairs based on some mental model. I don't think those type of players are out of the game, whereas other services, other tournaments, they definitely are.
No totally agree this is now. Having said all that, the draw came out and there are definitely some lines you can draw to bets. And let's start on the women's side, because this is more meaty than the men's side, which which obviously has Novak Djokovic and Carlos al Karez
at the top. But on the lady's side. And I don't know what your reaction was, but my my reaction to the draw was, holy shit, did they make Q three and Q four much more densely populated with players than Q one and Q two players that can you know, have a shot at going deep in this tournament. So Q one is the Spia Tech quarter, if you will,
cassid Keina golf bench, it's there. Q two. I mean I already recommended on the shows morning, I have a kup dere Matova bet there, you got Pagoula, you got Vekch. I know you like Donna vekch Carolyne Garcia is there to a lesser extent, Leila Fernandez and Lude Mila Samsonova. But then Q three and Q four and I'll just
leave this for you to come in afterwards. Q three has got Jabor Pliskova, kvid of A, Hadad, Maaya Osta, Panko and Rebakana, and Q four has got Soakkary keys Andreva, Kurdjikova, Alexandrova and Sabalanka.
Good god, Yeah, I share your sentiment. And when you see something like this, it's uh, you know, I would qualify it as an imbalanced draw.
Yep.
Even though Ega is on the top, the top is weak, the bottom is strong, and you I think you correctly laid it out. Like my my percentage is for Ego to win Q one and Kuda Matova to win Q two relative to my percentage for those same players winning the title are outsized right right, and so attacking them with Q one Q two type of bets as opposed
to taking them out right makes sense to me. But then again, taking them out right and expecting that there's going to be chaos on the other side of the draw, and you don't know for sure that a you know, and especially uh, you know the worst case You know that you don't know that the worst case player is going to come through, And I don't even know that we can sit here and tell you sincerely who the worst case player would be for an ego.
Right, It's exactly right, we don't know.
I could be it could be uh uh. I would say full strength Rebecca probably, yeah, full Strengthbaa, yeah, could be Kvitva just because of her you know, experience on the surface.
Actually, I would say it's a toss up between those two.
Yes, yeah, I wouldn't entirely rule out Sabolenca if she's playing with confidence in her service firing like that's not crazy.
I'll be honest with you, Drew. I have to keep reminding myself that she's a kN tender, Like, I don't know what that is about me, but I have I have Kavitava and Rebakta. I have the I mean for me when I'm just looking at historical numbers, right, Jabor's actually great, but she's not in top form. Kvidava's next, but like even like Krejikovasakary, kuder Matova, Ostapenko, Like I'm just going down the list. You've got Ostapenko and Rebacca
and Kavidva all in that, Jabor all in that. You know, you got a serve bot in Piliskovo, You've got Hadad Maya in there. So I mean, I think the answer is probably to your question is probably a full strength Rebaka and Kovidva. But yeah, if it's I mean, if it were a if Ostapenko got there and she was just killing, I'd be terrified of her too.
Sure. Yeah. In a lot of the lead up before we saw the draw, I would have told you I have a list of twelve women who I have greater than two percent chance to win. That's a lot.
Let's hear that.
That's a lot.
That's a lot of players.
Yeah, ten of them are on the bottom, two of them are on the top.
And the two on the top are taking ku deer Mantova. Correct, yep, totally agree.
That's a huge balance.
It's unbelievable.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So what do you do with that? I mean, I think basically, if you really had eyes for if you specifically have you know, if you already have a bed and pocket on you know, on covid of a. This was a big old give me a break kind of a draw because a ton of the equity you've already captured with her form you've seen so far this year has kind of been tilted back into the ego bucket, which is a bummer, but that's fine.
You know that the idea of being able to get a decent price on covid of A against some of these women she's going to have to go through going to get a good you know, it'll be a good maybe perceived as an interesting matchup against Pushkova in round three, a good matchup against your board round four if your board gets there. Man, I don't know what's going on with her. And then you know, presumably Rebakna in a in the quarterfinal like those are that's a that's a
that's a one two three right there. That's going to get you some pretty good rollover type of pricing. And then you know sable Anka and the semi finals and then again the finals. Like I think a rollover on COVIDVA, worst case scenario in terms of who she would face, would probably get you in the twelve to fifteen to one range. And I think her prices are a little shorter than that.
Little shorter consais you might be able to find a twelve to one out there, but.
Yes, yeah, typically shorter. So it's you know, I think you have you're gonna have to make some decisions, and you actually can be a little bit patient and watch a couple of rounds see sort of how you know how things are materializing on the bottom, and then kind of ride a specific player round by round as opposed to outright on the bottom. You know you can get but you know, there's always the possibility you wake up
one morning and Rebacca this out because of illness. Right, there's a chance that Jibor gets upset in round one or something and then all of a sudden, that section of the draw for Kamitova is a lot softer, right, So you know, I think there's a little bit of ept exercise caution if you're going to look at things this way. But I think that's the right way to look at it math wise, just because there's you know that some of the players we haven't even mentioned that
are very good or on the bottom. Alexandrova is in my twelve for sure, She's got an interesting spot in the draw. I really don't know what to make in terms of Katchikova right now. But she's shown you enough on grass, I think in the run up that and enough in this year so far in terms of quality of play that Katchikova has to be, you know, in the mix. Andreva, I really don't know what to make of because she is a total unknown on grass.
No grass data whatsoever on any tour.
Yeah, and her outright prices are just wildly unbeddable. There's it's nonsense that she's in like the fifty to one range.
Oh, that's ridiculous. When I was going through Q four, I actually I don't know if you caught it. I did mention. I mentioned Alexandrova Kjikoba, Andreva. I also mentioned soakery and Keys. Socchary's grass numbers are really good and we just don't think about her. Could this finally be the tournament for her?
She looks like an out in round three Keys to me, yes, uh. And you know, Socchary falls into specific bucket of players I just never even really consider because there they consistently underperform at the slam level relative to their numbers. Doesn't matter,
like kind of seems like it doesn't matter. There's some guys, guys who fall into that bucket pretty clearly too, that we'll talk about, I'm sure, but you know, I kind of will pay to see Sokery do it at the slam level at this point, the inexcusable that she didn't win that Fred Shope and the Chikova won, considering how that broke for her. The other name he didn't mention in the Q four though, is your French Open finalist Carolina Mukhova. Yes, I did not mention your correct Yeah,
she could. She could pop again, entirely possible. You know, she has on record as clay is not her favorite surface, and yet there she was in the last two. Actually, there she was with a chance to serve it out.
It's funny, though, you say that, because immediately, like we just talked about how you know, with this data, it's tough I look at her because my instinct is to look at the data, right, and her grass data is not that spectacular. But then again, this isn't this isn't hard courts, right, this is like, well, do I trust that, you know, do I trust her reason form or that?
And the answer is probably the reason form. If I came to you from the future in Q four and I said, Okay, Sabalanka didn't win it, Alexandri Kurdjikova, Andreva keys Sakari Mukhova who won it.
Oh man, just seeing what we've seen so far, and again, like I'm talking myself into this to a degree, even though I cautioned not to overreact to what you've seen this year. But Alexandrova's game on Crass has been dynamite. Yes, she's got the skill set to pop here. I have a little eighty to one in pocket for her. So maybe I'm, like, you know, trying to will it to happen.
Well, no, I mean just to give people a sort of a sense. So Alexandrova was supposed to play Codermatova. I want to say it was last week and the match never happened and one of them decided not to play it. But I remember it, yeah, yeah, I remember having the over in it. And also it was really tightly lined. I think Alexandrova had just beaten Kodermatova. I actually was on Kadermatova in that it could have gone either way. I think I think money came in on
Kadermatov as well. But essentially, when we're sitting here, praising kader Matova. She just got the benefit of a better draw, but Alexandrov was right up there with her.
Yeah, they played in was it Talkinbosh? I think the final? Wow, I would not remember it was Alexandro Vacruiter Mantova, it was. It was a draw. Yeah, Alexandrov ultimately won, but it was a draw, right, and yeah, she I would say that just if you know, again, like what have we seen?
She's going to be in the mix. Absolutely, She's going to be in the third round against Mukova almost certainly, and then yeah, god man, what a what a murderer's run for her, though Alexandro is gonna have to go through Mukova in round three, Sablenka Sabalanka in round four, uh,
and then somebody awesome in the quarterfinals. Maybe Keys. Keys is playing amazingly well, and she's she's the opposite of a Sachary, where Keys tends to overperform at the slam level relative to the numbers you get from her own tour. Although at the same time, like she's deep this week, right, she's probably gonna win a winniesborn.
Yeah, is still alive. She'd be Coco this morning. So she's still alive, that's.
Right, convincingly. Cocoah. Yeah, she's got Coaina in the final tomorrow.
But this is this is Keys, I mean, like she's again. Keys was in a Grand Slam final. I remember she lost to Sloan Stevens in twenty eighteen. I want to say, well, US Open in twenty eighteen, don't hold me to that year. Yeah that sounds right, or twenty seventeen something like that. But uh, you know you could see it wouldn't shock me if it was like one of these things where like later in her career there's a bubble up right because of course, yeah, so she's great on these services.
So I mean, here's what I bet so far, just to brass tax it for folks. What I bet on the for those who missed it on a numbers game. I have an Ega to win it out right from many months ago at four to one, she was close to four to one all week. Last couple of days she's gotten shorter. This draw will make it even shorter. But Ega to win it all just because it's my reflex in life, like I breathed to better. But I also bet a Fiatek Djokovic parlay at bookmaker got plus
five point fifty on that. I also, though, have a Kvidava Djokovic parlay, which is thirteen to one. That's what I already have in pocket. I am going to add a kavid of An outright. I see a twelve to one out there, I'm gonna grab it if it's still available after this show, and quarters, hopefully they're available. I can't wait to live in a state where it actually has legalized sports. But hopefully, hopefully there will be quarters available.
Because Kudermatova, which I recommended this morning, was at five to one, I don't know if it's I think it got shorter at four to one after I talked about it. Kuder Motova Q two and kvid ofv A Q three ultimately at plus three thirty three was the number this morning. Even though it is a stacked stacked quarter. I still might bet that, but that's what I have. You what have you bet so far?
So I'm holding I am. I'm the same situation as you where I'm waiting for quarter prices where I can bet them. But I do see I mean IgA at evens for Q one one is too many. That's a bet by my numbers. Yeah, I think she should be about minus one forty five at least. That's you know, this is again rap projections. I think she should be about minus one forty five kouter Matova. If you got her at five to one, it was a great bet. Four to one, I still see value my fair there
is plus three seventy five. And then on the bottom. Uh, let's see. I'm surprised Vekic is actually the favorite in Q two. Huh huh. Interesting.
I saw that she is the short shot in Q two, which I know you love her. I don't quite understand that.
I love it's a strong word. No, she's just she's just she has she has a uh, she's just got. There's enough, there's enough success in signal to not completely dismiss her. Certainly, I think you have to stack her above the likes of the Pagoulas and the Garcias of the world.
I would agree with.
But yeah, I think kouter Matova and Ega are the two quarter plays on the top and then the bottom. If you want to take a swing against Rebakana, because either she's just not there physically or she may withdraw. I don't think that's crazy.
By the way, just let me just clarify what Drew is saying, because some people might not know. Uh sure, Elena Rabacchina, who is considered one of the big three along with spoutech In Sabolenca, regardless of surface here, she pulled out of the French Open, I want to say, after round three with a virus just out of the blue, and that really Ego was already the favorite, but Rabakkana's withdrawal really made her the favorite. That's IGA's surface to uh to lose to begin with, but Rabackina has kind
of been her kryptonite. Seems like the one player that IgA sort of can't figure out that virus that she acquired. Whatever the virus is. Some people think it's COVID by the way, but it has affected her this whole time. She had to bullet, she tried. She played a grass court tournament earlier. She I can't remember, she get beat her.
She pulled out of that too, I can't remember, but it was really quick, she was in and out and it's and it's kind of still affecting her to the point where defending her Wimbledon title is not a straightforward thing at this point because we don't know what Drew's referring to is. We don't know if she's even prepared to play at full strength here if she if we knew that she was, this is a different sort of story here.
Yeah, and I think that's that's fair. She played two matches in Berlin. The first she defeated the qualifier Paulina kuder Matova, a different couter Matova. There's a v n ap. The v is a good one, at least for now, I'm sure maybe forever. But the then in round of sixteen, Donovecca you got her lost, Donna lost the tiebreak, and then six thirty sixty four. Neither of those performances did I think Rebaka and I like, she didn't have it right.
It wasn't obvious to me that she was still dealing with it watching those But after the fact she's come out and been pretty vocal about how she's not feeling one hundred percent. And you know, there's there are a lot of videos of her practicing and stuff floating around where it's like she just doesn't look like anywhere close to the level of player you would have remembered from
last year's Wimbledon. So yeah, I mean and again like the fact that she pulled out so suddenly from Roland Garrow, So it just tells you that, you know, she's not feeling it. She's going to go, She's going to eject.
That that ain't that ain't pull it out of this week. That's that's a real pullout.
Yeah, exactly, exactly, And so yeah, I think the Petra three to one, three to one ish for Q three is worth a shot because again, like don't understand at all where Anstibor's head is at. Like an early exit from her would not surprise me. It seems like, you know, the just generally the you know, the ghosts of grass years past is uh, you know, is affecting her serve
for whatever reason this year. So Kuvidva could be looking at all of a sudden a soft quarter where she only really has to get through the likes of Ostapenco or Beatrice, and you know, yeah that Q three could get a lot softer. Q four is sort of the toughest, the pretty clearly toughest for me, and I don't I don't mind Alexandrova at ten to one. I make that a fair play my Alexandrova. Number four Q four is seven five, Okay, so ten to one is a decent play for her there.
I would I agree with every bit of that, Like we are so aligned on that that terrifies me because now we're.
Just going yeah, yeah, and.
I would have to agree with you, even though I'm not betting Q four. I would even agree with you on the Alexandrova part, likes that's the best value. But I'm not betting that, but that would be the best value of that group because k Jakova is really a tease. Yeah, yeah, Andreva, we have no idea key keys, what's keys number? Q four?
I'm just curious eight to one?
Oh, see that. I was hoping that. I was hoping that, yeah.
There was a there was somebody who is very very sharp tennis better who was in the men you know, in my you know, we were dming the other day and he was like, this keys price doesn't make sense. She always platforms well with these slams. She's very lightly tested so far, like you know, just in general, like what is her fatigue from twenty twenty three? So far, it's pretty light. And you can look at that and say, well, that's just because she's not going deep in these tournaments.
She's not playing well, she's slipping, she's aging, whatever, but it doesn't change the fact that she's a lot fresher than some of these other women who did grind all through the clay. Right, Yeah, so.
Okay, well, let's let's go to the men's side because I don't want to I want to get this in now. This is not going to be as robust as the women's side because Djokovic and Akaraz are at the top and they're the only ones in single digits in the outright. But it is interesting to look at the quarters, and I'm gonna guess Drew and I are not going to be quite as aligned on this. Maybe we will be. We'll see Q one Alcaaz did I mean it's not
the easiest at all. I mean, he's got Zverev, he's got dem Noor who's got really good grass numbers in there. Tfo Rune that's in Q one. So they didn't they didn't really do Alcoraz that he favors. In my opinion. Q two is Medvedev's Medvedev in Sitzepas's quarter, if you will. That features a whole bunch of players that have really good recent and non recent grass form, the manner Reinos and the Greek spores of the world. Even Serundolo has
been good on grass round it. You never know. If he got his serve going, he's you know, he'd being he's basically a serve bot at that point, but he's we haven't really seen it quite yet. Tommy Paul is a really interesting player in that. Then you got your scam Norri, You've got your quarters, you got your Sheltons, you got your cresses, and even Andy Murray in there. I mean, so it's loaded. So I don't have a
bet there. I'm curious if you do. Q three's were my that would be we'll see if we're a lining there. And Q four I'd love to say, it's difficult because Rube leven, curios and even a Bublick typer in there. But it's jokers, so I can't really make a savings there. Well, how did how did it lay out for you? Where did you see the bed?
So whereas the women's draw was clearly imbalanced, the men's draw is almost perfectly balanced. There are two people who could win this, and one is on the top and one is on the bottom.
If I said to you, if I said to you, if I said to you, I agree with you generally, but one quarter is slightly easier for the other three.
What will be well Q four?
Oh really? Okay?
Oh yeah, I don't. I think Joker got an absolute beauty here.
I would have said that. I would have said Q.
Three Q Well, well, Q three is the weakest, Yes, that's what I yes, absolutely, yeah, that that is without question. Surely Q three is extremely weak. I guess if you were to say winter comes from which quarter and you were to price it out, the winner coming from Q three would probably be the long shot, and it would be substantially the long shot.
What is what is sinners price to win? Q three?
Though?
That's what I want to know.
Like plus two fifty enough to play? No, no, no, not not not with not with what I've seen from him this, uh since the French Open, really, I mean including the French Open. Really.
It's interesting because there's an out of form Fritz, Like Fritz has the best numbers historically, but he's out of form. And then Casparus never caspar Rood's never gotten past the second round here.
Oh yeah, talking about he's been playing golf.
Yeah, he's been, and he's going to concerts all around the cut Instagram, he's all over the.
Yeah, he's Yeah. The idea that he's in any way dialed in or intending to make any kind of noise here is pretty pretty far fetched in my mind. The middle class. So basically, what you're saying when I and we agree in Q three top is is question marks. The middle classes not existent, That's right, and so that's why then general that that quarter so week. I don't
hate Fritz at five to one. He's got some ghosts from last year too, though people probably very very very you know, not very vividly remember the loss to Nadal when Nadal had you know, his ab was split and he still managed to find a way to beat Fritz in that match, and Fritz, uh, you know, lost his opportunity at a semi final there and then what Kuriosk basically got the walkover to the final.
That's right, cheated, couldn't go, that's right. Yeah, this after you know, the Indian wells where it looked like Fritz wouldn't be able to go, and then he beating.
And Fritz falls into an interesting category of players. Medvedev is in this category as well, where they played more clay this year than we're used to seeing and I played better on clay this year than was expected, and then for whatever reason, have completely no shown on grass.
Well, so have you seen this med Like, I don't know. I went to Indian Welles, but you don't have to go to a tournament to see this. But Medvedev does this thing where he like, uh, he takes serves from a mile behind the baseline. Yeah, that's that ship ain't working on grass.
No, that's a nonsense factactic ungrassed. I honestly, he's a very very smart guy and very very you know, very mentally sharp player. I have no idea why he is not, like, you know, talking to coaches or strategists to improve that, because that's that is a real, real, obvious, easy to fix weakness, weakness. And he has so many of the same skill set as Djokovic that it doesn't make sense why he doesn't find that, you know, find some form
on grass and threatening here. I thought maybe it was going to come this year after what we saw in clay, and it's just has been the opposite. He's regressed from what I remember seeing from him in the past. On grass.
So you got you got no bet in Q two, do you?
I don't mind taking a shot on a bigger number there the you mentioned Greek Spoor. He's interesting to me at twenty five to one, although he does fall in that category of busy, happy to be here after getting a title in the Netherlands. This grass run up.
You know's what's Tommy Paul's number?
Twenty to one? I was gonna mention, I was just gonna mention time call, Yeah, he's there's you know, there are a couple of Q two is going to be a big number, I think, yeah, And there are actually there are a couple of Americans that may end up being sort of the the US quarter, right. Cord Shelton, Ben Yeah, Ben Shelton's in there, Maxim, Krusty's in the uh Krusty has stunk out loud this year. But he is a grass player in his It's in his bones, it's in his blood. It's everything about the way he
plays on grass. It is he's built for this. Crusty could make a run here. Shelton could make a run here. Quorda could you Banks could even He's got a really soft little section up there. Going against Scam potentially and you know round two. Yeah, so there's there are a number of US players that I think could make you know, make it to deep into week two coming out of I'm talking out of Q two.
I'm talking myself into a Tommy Paul.
Drew Twain one is good. Yeah, you know, he's he potentially gets he has a he has a qualifier in round one who he should get through at worst three one. Uh, he gets potentially a qualifier or an out of form Melos rounda, the ghosts of roundage still floating around amazing in round two and then round three, Francisco Sarundolo, who's
been lie on grass. Uh yes, Tommy Paul could very very very uh uh comfortably get to the fourth round of this tournament, and at Medvedev stumbles in round two to Saint man A Reno then or in round three to Greek Spore, then Tommy Paul could be looking, you know, looking at a you know, a quarterfinal here pretty comfortably. I feel I don't have it.
I feel like I have to bring these two guys though. So sits APAs who now, by the way, dating Paula Bodosa. For those who are curious about such things. We're you're not thinking about him in any way, are you.
No? And if you didn't already know he was dating Paul Butdosa, then you're you're doing a very good job of staying offline because it's everywhere impossible to miss. Even though I don't know who cares about that, but apparently a lot of people do enough to, you know, to have a lot of social media. Uh, you know, noise about that. The the other person, Yeah, he's completely out here.
The other person I have to bring up is Andy Murray. Yeah, who has won this tournament obviously part of the Big Four back in the day. You don't think, do you?
No? No, no, Yeah, there's only two men in this straw with oh you know what, I'll give you something fun. Only you know, only two men in the draw. One Wimbledon joker, Andy Murray. Only one man in the draw has ever beaten Novak Djokovic on grass. It is Andy Murray. Oh yeah, Andy Murray. The you know when he did it though, it was like twenty fifteen or something. It was like good eight eight years ago. But yeah, I mean,
you know Djokovic's numbers. I feel like we might have already covered this on you know, on your show on Wednesday. But his grass numbers are absolutely impossibly ridiculous.
Oh, it's it's ridiculous. He is, he's a good you know again, just you can go ahead. I don't want to rerupt you, but I've been quantifying it right here, just looking. It's he's a good if I if I'm doing service points and return points win percentages and I'm combining them like, he's a good six seven points clear
of the field historically. Yes, you know, So it's it's not I mean, that's the thing when we talk about guys like Djokovic or Ego on clay, it's not hyper it's not hyperbolic, right, It's like the numbers just show you how can this be? How can this one human being be this much better than all of these other professional players.
It's incredible, it really is. And career record for Djokovic on grass won twelve one hundred and twelve wins, eighteen losses, really eighteen, that is that is rare air. Yeah, he has not lost on grass since. Do you want to guess?
Umm, no, you tell me. I don't want to guess.
Queen's Final against Maren Chilich in June of twenty eighteen.
Marinil is not who wanted you open.
Yes, it has been five plus years since the man has beaten Djokovic on grass. He lost to Andy Murray Wimbledon. It was actually twenty thirteen, so it has been ten years since Andy Murray beat him. His other grass losses come at the hands of one Martin del Potro, Roger Feeder and Sam Query. You know, all time greats, But let me kind of focus on that one and get your opinion here. Sam Quarry beat Djokovic in one of the most ridiculous upsets I've ever seen on tennis in
my life. It was in round thirty two at Wimbledon. Query at the time had zero pedigree. Was it was probably like twenty five fifty to one in that match. Djokovic's loss, I would ascribe. I remember in the moment thinking this, and nothing since then has changed my opinion that he had a big old exhale after he won the French Open in twenty sixteen, because that was the last career that was the last title he needed to close his career slam. And after he wins that twenty
sixteen French Open, he kind of exhales. He not dialed at all into you know, kind of preparing for Wimbledon didn't mean as much to him, and I think that's kind of how a guy like Query catches him early in the tournament. There is a a hair of a parallel to this year for him, because he of course wins the you know, wins rolling Garos is his twenty third slam, which now puts him number one all time,
top of the mountain. So to the degree that he has any exhale and someone could catch him, you know, by surprise in this tournament, just because he's not you know, dialed in in the normal you know, to the normal you know, terminator way. I think is is it's an open possibility.
I hear what you're dealing there. The counter to the counter, right, would be, now that he's gotten off the vaccine band slams, that he is so keen on grabbing slams, right, and he ain't getting any younger either, that that will counter
the potential lack of focus narrative. That would counter that, and he'll be like, no, I want to tie Margaret Court here on Wimbledon, which is you know, at Wimbledon, which is the one I'm supposed to win, just like Ego was supposed to win the French, Right, this is the one I'm supposed to win. Let me get to twenty four and then let me get to the quarter century,
and then let me just build a gap. And you know, the more he wins, the less Carlos does for future, right, because carl is gonna get double digits at one point two, So that will obviously, you know, he's he's already ruined. He even veteran and Joko and Nadala have already ruined a generation of guys getting slams. As John Isner famously said, they're just really greedy, you know, So that that will go. I think it does beg the question. Now, let's let's get to the final. Right, if we get to an
Alcoraz Djokovic final. You said something interesting on a numbers game earlier because you were a you were a Djokovic guy at the French as I recall. Yeah, yeah, let's say they get to the finals here, Djokovic is going to be favored. You actually are going the other way you think on this one's.
I mean, you know, price is going to determine a lot, right, Yeah, if Djokovic looks, you know, a little uninspiring, if his elbows. You know, it's concerning if a guy that he has no business challenging him challenges him on the run up and Alcaz is in absolute dialed in few mode. You know, the market may not give us a price to bet Alcaaz in the final, But my general sentiment is that starting at minus one fifty or whatever he is to win,
let me see what, wow, minus one seventy three. Starting at minus one seventy three to win this title tells you that if it is an Alcarez Djokovic final, which is again and the most likely outcome by far in for this tournament, that's something like greater than fifty percent chance that that's what your final is going to be.
The market is probably going to make it minus four hundred d Djokovic plus three you know, plus three twenty five three fifty Alcrez, which means betting Alcaz now at plus three forty is insane because you can probably get that in the final, yes, right, and so you can avoid a potential loss where he just no shows in some round and somebody catches him on the way there and bet him at that time, at that price, when in reality there's potentially a narrower gap than people realize
between Alcoraz and Djokovic on grass. There is a sentiment that Alkaz just hasn't played enough grass, he doesn't have enough reps, and that's one hundred percent fair like I think he has. He has fewer matches on graph than Djokovic has losses, even though jok is the winningest player of all time agress. That's but you know, I saw I definitely saw enough at Queen's from al Krez to tell you that he's starting to figure things out. Like his strategic approach to grass tennis was very impressive.
I thought, are you are you worried at all? Obviously for those who missed it, what happened at the French Open final was this, you know, the most anticipated match ever certainly in recent history, and Alcarez just kind of
tensed up like he just couldn't perform yips. Might one might even say, do you believe that that will not be the case if they eventually meet here or do you worry that we will see some semblance of that again and that this will actually like because if that happens again we got a problem, right, Oh of course.
Yeah. And if he's if there's residual you know, mental baggage from what happened, then he doesn't really stically stand a chance and minus warnered in that moment. For Djokovic's right, the my contention would be the pressure was on Alcarez in that semi final. It was a minus minus two hundred favorite, which.
Is crazy crazy.
Yeah, yeah, it was crazy. In hindsight it was. It was ridiculous.
I even I can't believe even in foresight it was crazy.
I thought, yeah, yeah, yeah, it was. There was that was that was a heaping amount of expectation on not the young young on the young man who it just doesn't have a ton of uh, you know, just not a ton of best of five experience. And for me, the way I handicap best of five clay is it is like it is a long form chess match. You need to be you need to be if you are relatively evenly matched with your opponent, you need to have some long term strategy about how you ultimately get across
the finish line. And Djokovic's I thought, was pretty clearly on display what he intended to do in terms of drawing him out, in terms of making him play the you know, trying to make him play some impossible points or you know, to get his you know breaks, you know, particularly to get that second set. And yeah, the nerves I think contributed pretty substantially to the cramping that you saw.
And that comes along with being the favorite in that moment and the expectation that you're going to win your seconds. You know that you you win that match, you win your you know, your second slam, you take the crown from Nadal that everybody is you know, kind of expecting you to do. And I think I see this as a very very very different, uh you know, kind of macro pressure set up right, he's playing with house money. If he gets to the final against Djokovic, no one
is realistically expecting him to win that match. And whereas you you know, Djokovic is you know, kind of strategic approach to the clay match. I don't think we'll work on grass because the points are shorter, and you know, just in general, uh, you know, the rate at which al krez Is Serve is hitting and his winners versus unfourced Arison grass so far from his run of Queen's is is wow stuff. I mean it is. It is
really really, really high level. Djokovic is going to have to solve that game in that moment, and I think that's going to be a tough, a tough challenge for him. You saw in the quarterfinal last year, Djokovic ran into an inform Yanick Center and it was a lot of the same problems. There was not enough tape, there's not enough signal of how do I beat this guy on grass that He went into that match with the play
and that was solid. He went in sort of I'm going to figure it out on the fly, and it took him until the you know, two and a half sets in before he was really kind of able to play up to his level against center in that match, and he had you know, it comes comes through, you know, three to two. Largely, I think his center kind of folded it up mentally, which is a center thing to do. And you know, alcraz I don't think is built that way.
And this is a long way of saying, if you get three to one on al Kaz against Djokovic in Wimbledon final, I will be bucking the kid in that spot. And it's not going to be the you know, highest confidence play of the year for me, by any stretch of the imagination.
It is not. It won't be your game of the year.
In other words, yes, no, no, and and and Will I be live trading that match and trading out of my Alcrez position if he's up to zero entirely possible? Is not. It is not a guarantee that I will ride that to the finish line. But I think almost certainly he's got a puncher's chance, more so than I expect the market is going to give us based on what we see in the current outright pricing.
Okay, So on the men's side, do we have bets? Are you thinking of making a bet? Or is there no.
Bet powder dry for that final? Honestly? Okay, I mean yeah, you know, I you know, we'll see how this ages. But Alcaz's path is tough. For this quarter is more challenging. I think you laid that out very fairly. A matchup against demon aor in round four is going to be challenging. A matchup against didn't even tease like the potential for there to be a Carlos versus Rune quarterfinal.
I mean, I mentioned yeah, I mean there's.
That would be cool.
For that, Yeah, Tfo and Rune and then quarter.
Tough quarter He's going to have to beat at least two of those men to get out of there.
Uh.
And you know an Alcaz Rune match that you know, that's that's popcorn fireworks stuff, Yes it is. That would be freaking awesome for a quarterfinal, but by far the best potential quarterfinal. There's not even not even anything else close, So hoping for that. Ultimately, if Alcraz comes through that, I would expect he makes short work of whoever comes out of Q two. Hopefully it's you know, the likes of a Tommy paul Er big old Price, the old
Price American flag. It gets to gets to cute, gets to the semi finals there and then Alcaz in the final against Djokovic would would be my bet in the blind we'll see.
I don't have these bets yet because they're not available, but Tommy Paul and Q two and Yonix, I don't know if I.
Want to bet center, what's your read on him?
I mean again, if I were to do again, we do Kelly and I will do sometimes we'll do our top rankings he'll do golf, all do tennis. Janick Center is the fifth best player in the world all court. To me, he's been in every major quarter so far already in his career. Never advanced past that, but he has had really good results in slams, and he has given the benefit of a quarter here. I mean, what is it, Fritz Bautista gutten rude, like, I mean, I'm
looking at his quarter. I'm like, they couldn't have. He ain't winning this thing, right, but his quarter, eh, he might. I mean, I still trust Ciner more than I do the others. And again, historical you know, historical grass numbers for Center. Again, combining serve percentage wins and return percentage wins, it's like one oh five, which is, you know, not quite the elite of the elite, but it's it's top ten, you know historically. So he's a he's a solid grass play.
He doesn't have numbers as high as Fritz does, though you know Fritz was informed. I wouldn't be saying this, surely, but you know players that have higher numbers than him, rune Alcarez, by the way, Barrettini, who were not even worth talking about at this point, right, Sasha z Verev and obviously Djokovic, so you know, really solid numbers, but not like elite. But he just got a really easy quarter, so I don't know. I'll see what the number is by the time I get to it, and maybe that's
the play. I wouldn't talk about him if he was in any other quarter.
Though, Yeah, I mean his his loss to Altmeyer at Roland Garros was that was painful. That quarter was his to lose, and he managed to find a very, very uninspiring way to do it. His run up has not
been especially impressive. Losing to Russovoria and er Togenbash was disappointing, and then retiring against Public in hallwe is a is a concern because he's a guy that has dealt with a lot of bizarro injuries, you know, stuff that you can't see when you're watching him play, but you hear about it and read about it, and you know they're like, man, why was he so off today? And you're like, oh, he actually his entire hand is a blister. Oh wonderful, Oh cool, glad, I'm glad I knew that.
Yeah, you mentioned Public in there too, but Bublic's another guy, like if he wasn't in Djokovic's quarter, like he'd be an interesting, you know shot if he was in the right quarter.
H yeah, as a long shot. But plus yeah, plus he's cursed. You know, he one hallway and you know they losing a round one. I don't buy into that really at all. I don't think there. I don't think there is signal there. And Bublic is a really good grass player. I think he got a decent draw. If McKenzie McDonald beats him round one, I mean I actually, you know what, Ken's McDonald has some wild, weird Wimbledon wins on his resume.
Mcken's and McDonald too. This morning, was just coasting to victory, coasting to victory against h Who did he plan?
I already for the Banks?
Was he the U Banks guy? Or was that Lloyd Harris Harris McDonald's playing Sarundalo. Yeah, he was six six two four to one.
Yeah, he was beating him convincingly.
Yeah he's done.
Lost's amazing, Yeah, amazing.
So there's that. Okay, Yeah, now here's the thing. We're doing this again early morning Friday. So I'd love to sit here and say, who do you like in the first round but honestly, most of these matches are not out yet. From where I'm sitting, you have egos and minus three thousand, three hundred and thirty three in her match against lynn Ju. You got koder matovakader Matova minus one thousand against Kaya Canepy in the first round. That's
never pleasant, but that's what it ought to be. Kaya Cannet be sort of a giant killer sinners minus twenty five hundred against one month well Sirundlo. So like you said with the kader mattoav was not that Sarundalo the other one, and Djokovic the old minus ten thousand against the Sene. But really, I haven't I haven't delve in these, by the way, Fritz versus Hanfman, Fritz versus Huntsman is a pretty interesting first round match.
Yeah, tough one for him, Yeah, even.
Though he's a minus four fifty five favorite there. But they're not all out at least I'm not seeing all of them out. Maybe I'm not looking at the right book.
No, I'm the same same here. It's weird. It's a weird smattering, a weird smattering.
So not much to say on first rounders, but so so the bottom bottom lining it. We're pretty aligned on the women's side, certainly on the quarters Fiatek kuder Matova one and two. If we knew about Rabakana, we would we would figure. But kavitavas our girl in Q three generally speaking, and I actually think she has a shot to win it all. Q four is the question mark. But you do see value the most value in Alexandrov.
I would agree with that too. And then on the men's side, it's it's it's not as robust, but you expect the Alkaaz Djokovic final, and you probably depending on the price, but if it's the price you're anticipating, will be a Carlos guy, and then you'll and then you'll manipulate it if you need.
To, and you're just riding Djokovic.
Right, I'll be honest with you, I don't. I mean, I don't have that bed in pocket yet, but I think I will Djokovic to it at all.
Parlay you said, right, I have the Yes, I have.
The parlay with the EGA, and I have the parlay with Vida, So I don't think I'll take an out right on on Djokovic got those in a far away place. At book Maker, so those were available there. I don't I think Tommy Paul Q two, I think I've talked myself into that as my only other thing.
Do you have a yeah? I like that one. I'm with you and if you can get twenty to one there, I think that's a fun play. There will be an interesting uh interesting somebody comes through Q two. My my official predictions all of alcaz over run. In Q one, I'll take uh, Tommy Paul over Maxim Kressy. There you go. In in Q two, I like, uh, I'll take uh. Man. It's tough to it's tough to believe in Fritz, but I will take you know who did mention? Who I think is going to make an interesting deep runt is
Quentin Hallie. He's got the he's got the he's got the skill set to to do some damage here and he's got a nice spot on the draw, so he's going to make a deep run. He's a gigantic price, so that'll be a fun one. I'll take. I'll take the super duper long shot. Quentin Alley's over uh just an absolute oh man. That section six is so weak always smokes. Quentin Alley's over jeez, man, rude got such a soft section and I really did get I bet you he's bummed he didn't take this more seriously and.
He's like, oh my god, I could have won.
He's like, I could have won. I could have won my quarter. Yeah, man, Well yeah, okay, we'll take Calli's at the long price in Q three over question Mark, and then I like, I'll take Djokovic over Bublik and Q four Djokovic in straights to the finals where he loses three two to Carlos al Kress.
He loses three two, and what would have to be a classic one.
Oh yeah, that would be so good. That would be so good. I mean now we're not talking like all time like Federer Federer Djokovic in twenty nineteen, but it would be that would be a big one.
What would you say that We'll close with this, What would you say are the greatest matches you've ever seen?
That That Djokovic Federer final that Wimbledon is the number one which bullet for me?
Not the Nadal Federer one where Federer loses and cries at the end. No, no really.
No, no, no, that one. The I mean I like that outcome, that was a fun outcome.
But I interested in Borg McEnroe in eighty one. Could I interest you in.
That wimbled that The Djokovic Federer Wimbledon was that fifth set, The high leverage points were like, every one of them was emotionally roller coat. It was an emotional roller coaster. The Federer not taking the championship points he had was like, how is this possible? The quality of the tennis was not very good for a lot of that match, but the fit set was unbelievable. The quality of the tennis was the best and the and the match was the best.
For the Australian Open final between Federer and Nadal in let's say twenty sixteen, maybe for some one was.
Yeah, that's interesting. For some reason when I think of Federer, the image that pops in my head for his greatness
was when he was first winning Australian Opens. We're talking like two thousand, don't hold me to the year, but like a decade before that, right two thousand and six ish somewhere in there, where you just he was doing things on a tennis court where you're like, I didn't know this was possible, Like the way that he could redirect a tennis ball and hit with you know, go from defensive to offensive within a point the way that
he did. I'm like, and that's when McEnroe, even at the time, he's like, these guys are better than we were. Like that even he was like, that's it, I've seen it all. These guys are just incredible and so yeah, I mean, I'm getting chills just thinking about some of these tennis hard oh that we are.
No, it was twenty seventeen Federer over Nadal went five sets at Australian Open. If you have never seen that, it was a wild one because Djokovic and Andy Murray were clearly the two best players in the world going into that tournament, but they had played so much and so long in twenty sixteen, deep into that season and played each other so many times that they were both just totally broken physically. Meanwhile, Fedder and Nadal had taken like a huge amount of time off to like fully recover,
and Istaman beat Djokovic in that tournament. I think Milos Mischa Zvere beat Andy Murray, which opened the door for a Veederan Nadal to get to that final and no one and people were literally like, is Fedder ever going to play, you know, at a high level again. He came in as a seventeen seed.
Yeah, maybe for a little while longer. Yeah.
Yeah, he made that final, beat stan Ververrinka in five sets in the semis, played in Nadal in the finals, and that was This was one where you remember how like you remember how important challenges used to be. They're not at all really anymore. Like, for whatever reason, challenges are like not really part of the game. People are just kind of like, yeah, well we believe in hawk I announced, We're just kind of accept the result. Challenges
used to be extremely important. And this was when like that fifth set was decided by like the narrowest margins on points I've ever seen, and like literally it was like was that in or out? I couldn't see it by eye. They challenge it and it was literally like in by a millimeter, out by a millimeter, and that was like the margins that decided that match between those two, and it was that was extremely memorable. So that it was the most amazingly my favorite.
Yeah, to me, it's the most amazing thing in sports like tennis at the highest level. You cannot compare it to me, mentally physically, it's just incredible. And that's the thing. Like I've said this before. I don't know if I've said on air, but like I remember, I went to a high school that was that was considered a pretty big tennis powerhouse high school. And I remember that, you know, we had a guy that ended up playing number one
single at UVA Virginia, number one singles at Navy. And I remember when the tour was in DC, you know, three four years later when they were finishing college. I remember asking when I was, oh, so you go on pro and they just laughed at me. Right, They're like, get killed. Those guys are so much better than right, Like, it just the levels that keep getting higher and higher.
It's impossible. And then when you get to the gods, right, like the notion that someone like Sasha Zverev, you know, has never won a Grand Slam and he can he can never get over the hump with the gods. They're so much better than he is. Imagine. So yeah, it's incredible. Last thing, because I just thought of one more thing. I lied if someone's listening and saying, okay, how many bets typically does just Drew have on the in the first round daily at Wimbledon. Is there a do you
is there is there a pad answer to that? Or is it just how the numbers shake out?
No, I usually keep it. I usually try to cap it at like seven, so he caps it at seven. I mean, there's so many, there's there's so much, there's so many like, yeah, I don't have a strong reason for that other than like I am a person in tennis that I want to put eyes on the matches that I bet because I want to know why, if I can even figure out why I was right or wrong,
because that definitely influences future pricing. Like if you got lucky in one, you want to know why, you know if you if you if you got unlucky and lost,
you need to know. And so, you know, it's tough to get that granularity of coverage because form an eye test matter to me a lot, and beyond just having a number that you think is fair when it comes to tennis, because it's a one v one sport and you know, if you can pick up like the nuances of a player, form injury, things like that by watching it, then you kind of have to I think to.
Really, I'm glad that we brought this up because I I'd never talked to you about that. I too, like in a first round of a slam, I will have up to six, but once I get to six, it's the same thing that you just talked about. I also start to feel like I should add more humility, right Like if I thought, I think to myself, if I think I have an edge in six matches, maybe I'm fooling myself kind of thing, like don't go any higher than that, because then you're then you're then you're lacking
a humility in your numbers kind of thing. I don't know if that makes sense. That's that kind of how my process it. I'm like, Okay, maybe I'm not that smart, you know.
Let mean, maybe it's it's funny too to contrast it with like the NBA, because like we could go through a week in the end of January and I could have twenty five bets in the NBA and I maybe didn't watch a game.
Interesting, Well that's Jason.
I just assume. I assume I'm going to be able to get it out of my number, like I misassume, like if I was right or wrong, I can test and test it with the data that I've got to come up with my fares. It's not that easy to do that with.
Us, Jason and I Jason Wangar, and we're just talking about that with baseball this morning. But for an entirely different reason. We're just like he's like I have a play on the Nationals versus the you know, another FACCTA team, and he's like plus one and fifty nine. And I always say, because you are not required to watch this baseball game, because like I could sit through that, you know kind of thing. Drew appreciate it, man, We're less
than forty eight hours away. I thank you sincerely, man, Thank you.
For tho as a ton of fun and best of luck. And I'm sure, I'm sure we'll revisit the men's side before it's all said and done. But you know, the important thing is is the women's tournament, you know, and you're coming up with fairs, I think on the front end because it's going to be really good.
Going to be really good. We'll talk on the radio side this week. Drew Dinsick, Everybody, I Whale Underscore Capper Deep Dive at NBC Sports Bet the Edge podcast. Thank you, Drew, appreciate it.
Man Ahi, best luck.
Best luck to you as well on all your Wimbledon bets. Thank you so much for listening.
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