To check it down man to Thursday morning, September fourteenth, twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Mega pod for a Wig number two and then National Football League Gil Alexander. I hope you're week one went well betting wise as always on the heels by the way of just a great appearance by Fessick last week, and thank you everybody who downloaded that podcast. Just tremendous numbers on the PSI pod episode and he was great.
We talked about all kinds of hypothetical NFL stuff. Hope everybody enjoyed that. I'll throw one in here just to riff as drift from that here momentarily. But first please are staples of the show from usually his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, but today he has upgraded to the dining room. It's Todd wish them. How you doing, totty? Well, not a good start.
You can't hear me.
Now we can hear you. Go ahead on, Gilly, how you doing man?
Good to hear my screen.
Is freezing like Adam is frozen and Will is moving and you're and you're sort of frozen.
Okay, Well we hear you fine. Let me say hello to Will Hill, also at Not the Will Hill. He's on the Bear Bets podcast both college and pro with the Bear Chris Faliga. Willie, what's happening?
Boys? What's going on?
Do people call you will Willie or Wilson? What's the what's the way they go with that?
Willie's kind of a little bit of a playful nickname. I don't get a lot of Wilson, but uh yeah, look if you want to start calling me Willy, I'm okay with that. Sounds funny, Okay.
We apologize for the audio here at the very outset of the show. We hope that it holds. Our rotating guest this week is one of our favorites. We always have him back for the postseason as well, and he's kind enough to join us for week number two. He is from Right Angle Sports. I don't know what else he's doing. He'll share with us. It's Adam Chernoff. Everybody, how you doing, Adam good?
I think I started the show a couple of years ago, like.
Week sixteen or seventeen, with all the guests that are usually on or tired, and so now I've made it up to week two and you know we're not up here a little bit, so good to be back with you guys.
Well, I had to finesse a you know, a different media conflict and then we found your spot here on the podcast itself. What else, by the way, besides Right Angle Sports, Like, what are all the different things you're doing? Because you're into a mess of stuff.
Massive stuff as always, but the big focus is the football service with Right Angle Sports, so that's the big one. And then we have the daily podcast, the Simple Handicap in year number six now, and then we're doing a whole bunch of video stuff all over the place. So if you're following the accounts of Right Angle Sports, you'll get everything that's coming out.
Sweet all right, And of course Adam Chernoff c h E. R n Off is your Twitter. Everybody can find out everything you're doing there. Adam, who is are you responsible for any of these line moves that just happened in the NFL market that just occurred in the last hour?
Nothing within the last hour. This has all been injury stuff for the most part. So we did a lot on Tuesday earlier this week and then might still have a few things to come yet.
Okay, Todd is the court stenographer over the megapod. Todd, how did we all do last week?
Gilly and Will?
We're both two and one outstanding weeks. Gill only missed with the Pictsburg Stullers and Will only missed with the Washington Guardians or Commanders or whatever their name is.
As two and.
One, I went one one in one, as did Fezick. We pushed the Pats and I lost the Bears and won the under in Dallas, and he also Beckers and Steelers. So one one one for me and the guests and two and one for you guys. We all lost the teasers because we all.
Fell for the Yenzer factor.
If Yen's are gonna hype us up all summer and that you're gonna have a problem when you go against Super Bowl contenders in that.
That's what happened.
That is exactly what happened. Before we get into thoughts on Thursday Night football, and if there are any bets here, I just wanted because we talked so much about this with Fesik last week in terms of like optimal situations and what teams ought to be doing or what may develop as the years go on. In the NFL in certain situations. That was sort of a conversation that ripped off, you know, going from fourteen point deficit to eight, and how people should be taking the two at that point.
Then we got into other kinds of crazier situations. Something happened in that Kansas City Detroit game. I brought it up on a Numbers game. Obviously it was a big Twitter thing as well. Joe Pte and I were talking about it, but something fell into our lap right after we recorded the megapod, which is that fourth and twenty five that the Chiefs had, which started out as a fourth and twenty but then they false started. This is
late in the game. I want to say. There was two ZHO nine left on the clock, There was still the two minute warning, there was still their full allotment of timeouts. They were down one point twenty one to twenty and we were discussing how the optimal play at that point would have been for Patrick Mahomes to sprint back to the nine yard line, let's say, and go out of bounds north of the two minute warning, forcing
Detroit's hand. In essence, at that point, they couldn't get a first down to beat you, which is what happened after the Chiefs failed to convert on the fourth and twenty five. And I guess my question is, and I hope people understand what I mean by that, so Detroit would have been forced to either kick a field goal or score the touchdown. The thing that could have torpedoed that is if they had gone for two I suppose after the touchdown, but let's just throw that to the
side for a second. I guess my question to you, Adam, and I'll start with you, is do you think a team in the NFL will ever get there? Because this was the perfect situation for that.
I saw that no really intrigued by the comment because it was so original. I hadn't seen that really said before. But I feel like it's the defensive link thing that we talk about always being the optimal play and how every team should do it, and no team ever does it. I don't know if we ever see that happen, but I feel like we talk about it every single week
in some scenario, especially later in the season. So once the defensive holding starts happening at the end of games to run out the clock, I'll be a believer that we'll see a quarterback go out at the ninth.
End of games and end up halves too, right where you can just defensive hold your way into the you know, one untimed down I guess sort of thing is what you're talking about.
Is that exactly?
Yeah, and then it puts the offense in the position where they have no time and they can't score anymore. So once that happens, I'll be a believer. We'll see a quarterback go out at the nine, because really, this could happen no matter. It doesn't have to be fourth and twenty five. It can be fourth in whatever it would be the play to make in any circumstances.
So now that it's out there, let's see what happened.
Yeah, it doesn't have to be fourth and twenty five, you're right, but fourth and twenty five made it so right there in front of us obvious, right, it's like, oh, you guys are still going for it even after the fall start. And by the way, Patrick Mahomes, because he's so great, almost almost converted, but it banged off, I want to say, justin Watson's hands on the fourth and twenty five.
So the question is where and where on the field does this become no longer the optimal play, Like if it's fourth and pick a number, but you're at the forty eight yard line right of your on your own side of the field, are you still going back to?
Like where's the cutoff?
Is what I would be curious to know, because there's probably a point in the yard line with it down and distance where it no longer becomes optimal. But in that circumstance it certainly seemed obvious, but there's probably it even gets more ridiculous where it becomes the play to make rather than maybe going for that fourth down.
Yeah, no, totally agree. And that was and I just want to get it right because that was fourth and twenty five at the.
Where were they they were like the thirty five ish.
I'm gonna tell you right now. Fourth they were twenty fourth and twenty five at their own thirty with two oh nine left would have been a twenty one yard loss. So yeah, everything was so perfect in that situation, the distance,
the place on the field. Now, of course, you know the other response to this I mentioned one one way to torpedo wit was then yeah, but then one if Detroit scores and then gets a two point conversion, the whole thing, you know, backfires, you know, Detroit, Detroit, could you know, conceivably then take the next play if there's too little time. You know, someone was saying, oh, what if Detroit then just runs up and down the field and tries to knock out time like as a whole
there's you know, it can get really really ridiculous. But anyway, I think it's a fascinating scenario. No need to belabor it anymore. We'll just see if teams start to develop this thing. And this is all discussion because last week Fezik and Todd were like, oh, eighty percent of teams when they when they're down fourteen, they know when they get to eight to go for two. And I was like, there's no way it's a will and I were both like,
there's no way it's eighty percent. And so anyway, just fascinating football situations where I think Baseball has sort of figured out stuff analytically. Football hasn't quite like in a chess game, where there's always an optimal play, Football has not figured out optimal plays at optimal times. It was the whole point of all of that.
Anyway, could you imagine feasick if he ends up in some wild reality getting a coaching job, and implements all of this the Monday morning press conference after where he has to atone to the media. I mean, it would be an all time sports moment if that ever happened.
That is such a great call. How funny that would be every Monday. I can't wait for Fessic's most game presser. That would be so great. Oh man, Steve's such a nice guy. It's so great that he his mind works this way. Okay, Thursday Night Football, Todd, you will tell me if I'm all format right? Thursday Night Football? Oh and Survivor? Who we all got through on Survivor?
Yes, Ravens, I got through, Yeah, I.
Got I mean I have multiple entries, so four of the five got through. I actually lost on Denver one of my entries. I wanted to go frisky and Denver didn't get there. But I had Baltimore, I had Washington, Washington.
Quick, I had Washington.
Yeah, Washington, we barely got there. What do you say, Todd?
Can we do a quick in game talk?
Yes? If you have something for sure? Yeah? What do you got?
Yeah? I think something to look at. Some of the books have.
Team totals for third quarters at halftime. And that's really interesting because you know, the first quarters and third quarters play very similarly. Obviously third quarters are a little higher scoring, but still they play similarly in the in the sense that you know, you long first drives, and the scoring is obviously much higher in the second and fourth quarters. So you'll see in NFL games nine and a half,
seven and a half that's for both teams. But now they're putting up tease for third quarters sometimes and if you know who's getting the ball first, which you obviously do, that can be I think there's there's something to do there. And they even keep them up live often, so if you see a team you know that really struggle to move the ball in the first half, the other team, you know, is getting the ball to start the second half.
I did this with the Bears last weekend. Actually lost, but it was like their only touchdown to the game.
I think it was just kind of unlucky.
But the Bears were three and a half team total in the third quarter and they really couldn't move the ball at all, and the chances, I mean, they couldn't score touchdown, that's for darn sure. And they weren't getting the ball first. The Packers were getting the ball first.
So now if the Packers go down and you have a four or five minute drive, now you basically the Bears get one shot at getting a touchdown, because if they don't get a touchdown, the Packers now get the ball with say sub six minutes to go, and even if they go two or three minutes, there's not enough time for the Bears to come back and get a touchdown.
A lot of these touchdown drives are a lot longer than three or four minutes, So I think there's you want to keep an eye on these third quarter team totals, not just third quarter totals in general, because I think if you can get a feel for who can move the ball and who can't, you know, a lot of the garbage time touchdowns, a lot of the touchdowns from team that can't move the ball happen in garbage time. They don't happen in the third quarter typically, although it
did happen with the Bears. So oftentimes you'll see a team they can't move the ball the entire three quarters of the game, all of a sudden the fourth quarter they get a touchdown. But you don't have to worry about in the third quarter. So I think you want to keep an eye I know that's kind of just a general thing, but you want to keep an eye on these teams that are not moving the ball at all,
and there's no reason to think they can. They're not getting the ball to start the third quarter, and they're going to get you over a field goal.
I think there's gonna be some opportunity.
Yeah, it's a nice riff off of what you were saying last week about totals in general into the third at the end of the third quarter. But this is team totals at the end of the third quarter. What percentage of books would you say, Todd actually offer this, because it's not all of them.
There's probably twenty to twenty five percent have them.
Okay, sounds about right to me.
Maybe least maybe twenty percent. Yeah, I can think of two already that usually have it.
What are they tell them?
I know, I know Rivers has it for sure. That's one that definitely has it.
Yeah, Because like I don't think I'm trying to think like just an offshore like Bookmaker does not. For instance, I don't think Caesar's does Caesar's doesn't.
Do they No, sometimes they do have that kind of.
Sometimes they do. Okay, all right, maybe I just haven't seen it. Okay, always a good one. By the way, again, the audio on Todd and on will I apologize for this is our our new spot here at the d at Bar Canada, and they're working through everything, so I apologize. You've got most of the drift of what Todd was saying though, But if this persists, trust me, I will make sure we do this from somewhere else moving forward. But hopefully we get slog through this Thursday Night football.
We're about to do our best bets sider totals our favorite three bets. Does anything from tonight's game qualify as one of your three top bets? Do you have any thoughts on this? Adam?
I really like the over in this spot tonight a couple of reasons. I think the Eagles defense is going to take a big step back as we progressed throughout the season, lost some key pieces in the offseason, but also last week they lose to Kobe Dean, who was their green dot in the middle. The green dot got passed over to Read Blankenship.
He's going to miss as well.
He was their leading tackler, and they lost another corner as well, and now you have Fletcher Cox who's hurt as well. So here these two teams played the total close forty nine and a half. I think we had the Eagles with a worse defense. We have the Vikings offense, which is just full on chase mode. With Kevin O'Connell, I think they're going to be a team to look at when you need a partner for the over all
season long. The Vikings defense is cleelanked with Floores, It's completely boom or bust, and so I think both teams move it pretty comfortably. Seeing forty nine or forty nine and a half, I think both numbers good.
To go over.
Yeah, the injuries on both sides there Fletcher Cox questionable, the Kobe Dean out, James Bradbury out, the cornerback safety read Blanket Ship out. And then on the Vikings side of the offense, Christian darrisaw questionable. That'd be huge. Garrett Bradbury, They're a center is out obviously, a Marcus Davenport questionable. On the defensive side, a defense that by the way, generated a twenty three percent pass pressure rate on Baker
Mayfield despite blitzing at the highest rates. So a lot of that when you put it all on the wash could very well point to an over for sure. Will any thoughts on this.
Yeah, I echo those sentiments in terms of the over ey thing with Floras, in terms of like the blitzing where it's it's like Adam said, boom er bust, where it's not going to be four or five yards at the time. It's gonna be big chunks, it's gonna be big plays. So I would definitely look at an over in Minnesota. You know Minnesota. You look at the scoreboard. They only put up seventeen points, but they moved the ball up the field. They were I think six yards
were quite maybe a little over. They just shot themselves in the foot when they got close. So I would take the points and I look at it over. I agree with that that you know, Feeld not that good on defense. And it goes back to last year. I mean all the good quarterbacks they played really tore Mahomes in the Super Bowl, Rogers on that something night, even golf, and the rest of the quarterbacks, it's a lot of
Daniel Jones. There was a lot of weaker quarter backs that they feasted on, so Vikings and the over stronger on the over.
Eagles down to a six point favorite total right now at forty nine. Todd, anything from you here, I'm.
Not using it as my pick, but I kind of like the Eagles team total. I don't know if you guys do this, but if you like it, over into their game, but you also have more confidence in one of the teams going over, do you think, hey, maybe
I'll just play this as a team total over. Like for instance, last week, I thought the Giants weren't going to move the ball at all, and instead of playing the under in the game, I just played the team total Giants under twenty and a half, and I feel like I give myself even a little bit better chance. For instance, in this game, if I had to play something, I'd probably play the Eagles over seven and a half because I just don't think the Vikings have a great defense,
and after that Eagles kind of disappointment on offense. I think they'll be on all cylinders tonight at home. I don't know do you guys do that at all? Look at the team totals as opposed to the just the regular total.
I do a lot in baseball, I do a lot in Detroit was a team I did it with last year, So yeah, I agree, it's a good It's a good way to get at.
Your handicap better, Adam Will or Will was that a best bet for you? The over? Or is that not one of your top three? No?
No, Adam, Yeah, I'm coming ready to fire, so we can put it in or we can still do the full three.
We'll go to you and we see opinion this week. Bill, All right, we'll.
See what comes out of your mouth. Then if that ends up being one of your top three. Let us start with the best bets of week number two. Your week one was good at him? By the way, betting wise, did it go.
Well for you? The Steelers put a damper?
Yeah, a lot of things so first half in full game there were kind of a killer. Other than that, it was it was okay, but the Steelers really put us in a bad spot.
All right, what's your number one play at them for this week? Week two?
Let's go to the Colts minus one. This is to me, it's pretty simple, and I'm giving a pretty generous numbers based on that. We're going to see this one move here in about the next hour, hour and a half. Well, I'll say, but what the Colts is I'm looking at a better head coach, a better play caller, and I'm
looking at a better quarterback. Against the Texans team shortly rule out both of their starting safeties, they lost their best linebacker, they put a defensive tackle, and I are a little bit earlier this week they have both of their tackles on the end the offensive side as well as Dalton. Schultz has banged up but will likely play. I think he's just going to reall consistently with Richardson, his injury is not a concern. I'm not ready to put these teams on equal footing like this price is
suggesting with very limited home field inside the division. So I'll proppily take the Colts here and I'll release it here on the pod and say minus one for the price. I know it's really really fair, but I think by the time people listen, that'll be the number.
Okay, because we did see some Houston movement this morning, right.
There was, and that's gonna it's gonna come.
Back, Okay, Indianapolis, we get a release Fromage sure enough, right there?
Minus one his biggest Colts plus one is there.
Right, Adam said, Colts minus one is where he got it?
Is that correct, Adam, I'll say that the anticipating what we're probably gonna be here, So.
It is. But I'm gonna move all right.
Well, well but it's plus one right now? Todd? Is that the consensus?
Yeah? I think we just called it plus one.
We'll keep it there.
All right, Well, we'll give him Colts plus one if that's the consensus, Uh, Todd, what is your naturally, let's go to Will. Will, what is your number one?
I will go with the Jets plus nine and a half. I still think that's maybe the best defense in the league. I think Dallas will probably look at this game as long as we don't screwed up, as long as we don't turn the ball over, or it'll be okay here, we can win a twenty to thirteen, twenty to sixteen type of game. Let's be conservative. Has made comments about, hey, I'm not going to turn the ball over like I did last year, and uh, it's not a great situational
spot Jets coming off on Monday night. But I just think this is a close, low scoring game, not about playing the under two. But I will take the Jets here plus the nine and a half points.
How about plus nine? Are you saying nine? Todd?
I am seeing on the Jets Jts plus nine?
I see, yeah, how about nine? Will? All right, he'll take the nine. We'll at him. Try to get a little hook in there. See what he was doing right there? Will? Will's like he's been the show. We gotta have it. We have to have a consensus. No, we got three consensus, Todd. What's your number one?
My number one is gonna be the Uh, I'm gonna do it.
I'm gonna go with the New England Patriots plus the three points at home against the Miami Dolphins. I was watching that Miami game extremely intently. I know everyone is in love with Tua throwing it to wine guys running wide open over the middle, and then throwing it deep to this guy to Tarik Hill and he's running for a thousan yards, by the way, on every play it looks like he's about to get killed.
And then literally he throws it.
He's very accurate, and some guy grabs it from nine yards and run for fifty yards. Okay, this is Can we not forget that? The Chargers are the Chargers, okay, and this is the kind I mean, how many games have we seen guys running around like ridiculously against the Chargers.
We've seen it a lot.
I think Bill Belichick told you last week that, hey, he's not too old to coach defense. I think he did a wonderful job against the Philadelphia Eagles on the defensive side of the ball, and you could make the argument that had their offense just not made any mistakes, they may have won the football game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
So now we get to go against Tua, and I think.
I don't know if do you remember last year we taught how there was some issue about Tua able to throw the ball over the middle, and certain coaches were able to stop that nonsense and really make it much harder for Tua. I don't know if you remember the Yeah, there was somebody.
Who came on the pod who was talking about that.
I just happened to think that Bill Belichick can cook up some kind of gulash of defense here to keep this game close against.
A team Miami Juggernaut. On off of oh my god, this is the greatest team.
By the way, two is one hit from being on the sideline at all times. Okay, so give me the Patriots. I think they can keep it close. By the way, Miami's Deece did not play well. They had played one drive well, the last drive of the game. Other than that, they couldn't stop him at all. It was you know, guys were running wide open. Austin Eckler running for sixty yards down the sideline. They throw it to like Kelly,
He's running for fifty years. So I didn't see anything from the Dolplins defense to make me think that the Patriots wouldn't be able to move. They moved it against the the Eagles at times.
Why can't bet the pat Patriots keep it within three at home?
So much? We learned so much from week two games, right we find out what in Week one was just an aberration because we only have that one data point, and obviously there's massive recency bias from just that one
data point more than any other game. Perhaps that's the one where we're gonna learn where the Patriots just playing an Eagles team that didn't play in the preseason, and so they looked better than they were were the Dolphins just you know, was their defense horrible because it was against the Chargers, or is the Dolphins defense truly horrible? And you're right, they only showed up for that last drive just in the nick of time? Did they show up? So?
I mean, I think there's so many questions marks here, by the way, the one thing about two of it. I just want to say, do you feel like the sentence that everybody or the phrase that everybody uses inappropriately, so, oh, he's one hit away from you know, who knows, God knows, God forbid his whole career being over because of the concussions.
But do you feel like, because that phrase is attached to every sentence about Tua, that somehow, in the wash he gets diminished, that he's actually really really good, and that that just sort of, somehow in our brains detracts from him.
I don't. I don't. I think those guys are opened by a mile. If he was on the Giants, the charm on a bunch of different teams, I don't know that that would translate as well. So I think he's a good player, very accurate. But I do think he's a limited player.
I will tell you this. I thought the two plays that the two huge plays to Tyreek in the second half of that game. I have no idea how the ball got through Tyreek. He was not open on those plays like it was incredible.
I guess I'll just Adam, do you want to say something about that?
I think he's It's hard to disrespect someone who works so well together with the coach and the play caller and the play designer. And I think the changes that we saw McDaniel implement again Chargers to make up for the issues that they had against that defense a year ago, really deserves a lot of credit and kinda gets pretty scary for the rest of the league when you're seeing all the tweaks that he made on that sort of readjustment in the game plan to take on that defense again.
So I think there's a lot of a lot of upside here with the Dolphins offense and that hold tu aside. I mean, who isn't one hit away from being hurt in this league? And so I think just because we've seen it so frequently with him and recently, it gets a little more attention than it deserves. But every quarterback's one handled away.
Todd, you wanted to say something about that, I just I think he's a very good player.
But I think like anointing him like one of these elite quarterbacks all of a sudden.
I don't think any I don't think anybody's anointing him an elite quarterback. But he's But like I think when people say to it, they don't consider him like a top ten quarterback. I think he kind of teeters on the edge of a top ten I really.
Do, maybe on the maybe on the edge.
Yeah, would it be different if he was right handed?
How so?
What do you mean, Well, just visually, maybe a lot of people don't connect because it looks so different. Maybe it's like maybe you see it in golf all the time. I mean, it's it's kind of a common thing. Just looks different and people kind of get it in their minds that it's different.
I mean, I definitely like Joe Montana more than something, if that's what you're asking me.
Remember that stat before Tua showed up the last NF the last left handed quarterback to win a football game, who started an NFL game to win an NFL game? Do you remember who? The answer to that question was, sims Kellen Moore. I believe was thin It was years. Yeah, Like I don't like what happened to left handed quarterbacks. They just like disappeared when we were kids, they were.
Who was it? I didn't hear you.
Kellen Moore?
Who was it?
Kellen Moore?
Oh?
Kellen Moore?
Okay, yeah, Kellen Moore is left handed? Right? I didn't get that wrong? Okay, yeah, all right. Let me let me do two because we snake quarterback seventeenth seventeenth. Okay, who's rankings? Whose rankings?
Like Sando? The survey with the GMS and the executives, et cetera.
The surveys, the survey rankings from GMS. I like Sando. Sando's been on this show many times. You okay, I get I get two because I get the snake. What do you sing Seattle at right now? Todd? This has come down since guessing lines.
On the.
Seattle Seahawks are at I see him at plus five.
Okay, uh it was plus six during guessing lines and I couldn't believe it. I will take the plus five here just because I'm gonna I'm gonna stay true to what my first reaction was of the week. I I'm just gonna base this on a complete Week one overreaction in the market. I get it. Detroit is on extra rest. They went in. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs, though was a Chris Jones list Travis Kelcey Liss Kansas City Chiefs team. I don't want to take too much away
from them, but that's kind of a big deal. And I get it people think Detroit's a lot of people think Detroit it's gonna be great. A lot of people have them, as you know, no less than the fourth best team in the NFC. But if you just go back to the Wednesday before that, the day before, and if I told you that this was going to be the line, you'd probably be like, wait a minute, I thought Seattle was going to be the fourth best team in the NFC. What happened here? And Seattle couldn't have
looked more horrible against the Rams. But it is the old thing. Marco Dangelo used to be on the show, used to say all the time, no team is as good as they look one week or as bad as they look the previous week. And I think this is too many points. I think Seattle keeps this close, if not wins it out right, but I think that's too
many points. I will take the five on the Seattle Seahawks, just based on the fact that I think this is way too much of an overreaction, and I think that the way Dan Campbell plays, you know, I used to on guessing lines, I used to cite all of the fourth down tries that teams would take because they were so anomalous. Now I can't even do that anymore, because everybody tries to convert a fourth down from everywhere on the field. Everybody who used to crush Brandon Staley, everybody's
playing like Brandon Staley now it seems like. And Dan Campbell, I think he makes some suboptimal decisions in this for the uh. I don't know if he's like trying to like fill this this narrative about him. So I gotta be the man go forward and stuff. And I think that nips him in the butt sometimes, and I think it will hear. I'll take Seattle plus the points in this ball game. Since we're snaking, I'll go again. I'll take the Chargers minus three. As bad as that defense looked,
just we're again reacting to my first instincts. This week, the Tennessee Titans Ryan Tannehill and I know we'll get to this, Adam.
Gilly, Yes, Billy continue, there's that thing. Friends don't let friends bet the Chargers.
Yeah, no, I know, I know. I say this movie. By the way, this could get this could get down to two and a half by it because it's minus three even at this point. But I'll lay the three on the chart Argers. I think Ryan Tannehill is Donzo. I know both Adam and Will are going to share with us that they Adam is a big Jets fan, that he may be pro Ryan Tannehill in terms of which quarterback the Jets should acquire. I think he looked awful against the Saints, and I as great as the
Chargers offense was, so no problem there. But it's Brandon Staley who came as a defensive guy. This defense. How is this defense with all of these guys, with Khalil Mack and obviously with Joey Bosa and you have this just solid secondary. How can they possibly be this bat or is Miami just that good? I don't think the Titans can hold him on defense. I don't think the Chargers. I think the Chargers defense will actually step up here against a Tannehill ed team. I will lay the three
points on the road with the Chargers. That's pick number two for me. Todd.
Snaking back last night, I was watching some WNBA and losing bets, as I like to do in WNBA, and at the same time.
I was.
Using Twitter and I saw Adam Chuff, so I clicked on his show and I listened to the whole show. It was very enjoyable, Adam, thank you very much. It was some kind of a rass on YouTube. I don't know exactly what it is, but you could find it. But the point where informative. I learned on that show.
There were quite a few injuries in a city just to the northeast of Washington called Baltimore, and they have quite a few injuries down in that neck of town, and they're playing against the Simpson The Cincinnati Bengals could not have looked worse as a football team than they looked in clean last week. Is Joe Burrow all of a sudden the second coming of I don't know.
He looked.
He looked as bad as a J Cutler. I mean, he was horrible last week. I've never seen Joe Burrow look. I had over thirty one and a half that I took at halftime is a ten to nothing game. I said to myself, they've got to go over thirty one and I have Joe Burrow will at least get a backdoor touchdown for me.
Right, No, they don't get a better They don't even go forward on fourth and five down twenty three. Guys, what are you doing?
You can with nine minutes left twenty four to three not going forward on fourth and five. Now, maybe they knew they weren't going to get it anyway, but the point is is Joe.
Burrow did not look very good.
I have a feeling that National Football League teams and very good ones have a tendency when they look horrendous, to look a lot better than next week. And now we're going against a Baltimore team that did what they had to do.
They weren't great in the first half.
I think that was more the other team was bad, the Texas are bad, or just you know, did what they had to do to get the W. But I didn't think Baltimore was looking that good. Adam turn Off tells me a thousand injuries on Baltimore? Am I correct, Adam that you said that there was eight thousand injuries on Baltimore.
I think I said nine thousand, but you're directing me with eight.
I would look back, but I was somewhere right.
I was somewhere close that there's a lot of injuries on Baltimore. Give me the damn two day Bengals minus the three, and we're gonna get it done.
Will Todd's point, I played under ten and a half wins for the Ravens. I think that's just so many injuries. They lost so many guys already. If you're resorting to Melvin Gordon at this point of his career running back, that's not a good sign. So I think under ten and a half is a good bet.
Brought him up from the practice squad. Yeah, they had Melvin Gordon on the practice squad.
All right, I'm gonna go with a pick. I hate a team. I hate the Denver Broncos. I am gonna lay what are we seeing? Three and a half?
Yeah? Three and a half?
Laying, Gilly, what do you have on Denver?
Three and a half? And I am let me just say this was my third pick as well.
Go ahead, Well yeah, oh, I mean I visit. I am just nauseous even discussing this team. But uh, Washington on the road. Look, I mentioned I had Washington survivor last week. It wasn't pretty, it wasn't easy. That offensive line was really bad. Howell got hit a ton. I didn't think Howe was very accurate. Now you got one to o teeth, fat and happy. They're going on the road a team that can't afford to be oh and two, and be oh and two with two home games in Denver.
This is sort of a must win game for Denver. I just don't know that offensive line for Washington's going to travel well here. So I will lay the three and a half with Denver.
I'm right there with you. I'll get to mine in a minute.
Adam, So I got to go two here for the sake of the snake.
Is that right? It's two for the sake of a snake. That's exactly right, all right.
I'm calling on the official stenographer here of the show to give me a ruling on the Jacksonville point spread.
Is three and a half? Fair here?
That's what I'm thinking. Three and a half for Jags.
Three and a half.
Okay, So let's do the Jaggs is pick number two plus three and a half. I think there's potential here that the Chiefs go through a couple more weeks of growing pains with these wide receivers. And what concerned me most was it was two of the three veterans they have on the roster and Tony and Moore who really struggled and Detrian's a big word for both of those guys, but it kind of reflects the state of what they have at wide receiver. And so Kelsey's going to come back,
not one hundred percent, he's going to play. He's going to have an impact. Absolutely, Chris Jones is going to come back. It's going to have an impact. I believe that entirely. I just worry a little bit that things aren't quite figured out on offense. And it's a bold thing to say against Andy Reid and Mahomes, but.
I think these wide receivers are going to.
Take a lot of time, just like the secondary did a year ago, and just like we see the Chiefs have with some positional group almost every season. So jaggs off that playoff for event getting three and a half half at home with an offense that looks fantastic with Ridley added in and a couple more sneaky weapons too. I'll take the three and a half at home with the Jagss.
Pick number two, Yeah, Preople missed it. Chris Jones did sign he will be there with the Chiefs. But yeah, Calvin Ridley off the parlay looking good? All right? What's your last one?
Really good? All right? Pick number three? Odd, you went with Cincinnati.
That's where I was ago, But for the sake of the show, we'll diversify here. I saw the Giants number come back as we were recording, and so I think four and a half price there. Yeah, I'll pretty happily take that one. Did earlier in the week as well, and now that it's back, I think it's fair to talk about. What I'm really like is day Ball and Kafka do a ton of stuff pre snap. They're really good at forcing mismatches downfield. That Dallas matchup for them
is horrible. They struggled last year. They looked awful on Sunday Night. That was kind of the expectation. Really like the Cowboys in Week one. But similar to what you were saying about the Bengals, Todd like, there's some matchups for teams that just are really, really bad matchups for what they do. I think Arizona is the opposite. I think their defense looked much better than anyone thought it
could against a really bad Washington offense. With Sam Howell as a rookie, I think this is a completely different thing that they're going to have to deal with. I think Dable and Kafka really take advantage of all these guys who are overplaying routes and jumping routes and getting way too aggraph the edges against Washington. They're just not going to get away with it against these two guys, and so I think it's a big rebounds spot for the Giants.
I'll take four and a half there.
Yeah. God, I love all these picks too. This is one I'm thinking of too, by the way, the must win situation for the Giants in week number two, because boy, if they were to lose this that schedule, who could get ugly. And I have an alternate underwind total on the Giants, but even I love them here against the Cardinals. Will your last one?
Obviously I've better at three. I'll still stick with the Bears plus two and a half. I just think you go back to season win totals Bear and a half Bucks were six and a half. I had this logic last week with Dolphins charges, where I just I can't get past the point where these teams are any but even ish. So Tampa's home field's not worth two and a half. Again, two and a half's not a key number, but no one wone getting points against a one and zero team. I will take Chicago here plus.
The two and a half, Chicago plus the two. And I've heard so many differing opinions on that game. It's unbelievable for such a direc football game. God, your last.
One before I say my last one, just as like a little bonus action. Adam, how do you feel about the team total under seventeen and a half for your Arizona team that didn't really anything tremendously against Washington and now you're and remember the Giants really didn't play that bad on defense. It just gave away touchdowns on lock field goals and interceptions and all kind of nonsense. You're telling the era is going to get up over the seventeen.
I don't know. I think under seventeen and a half looks really delicious. And as a team.
Total, I you just sold me on a team total which is not what I expect to come out of the podcast with. But I think that's a pretty good look. Wink is gonna blitz a ton Mike. You met they held the Cowboys. Can I remember the number on top of it was like four point one four point two yards per play, which weather assisted a little bit. But yeah, it's Josh Dobbs is gonna have to deal with a lot upfront for sure.
You just call that delicious delicious? Is that what you said?
I feel it's a it's a nice low cow dessert. Arizona Cardinals under seventeen and a half. You have to pay a little extra big, but it is quite delicious. So I'll probably be playing that one. Okay, So for my third one, I'm gonna do something crazy here. I'm gonna go down in the North Shore for week number two. And here's the thing you're saying, we talked, Are you crazy? You're gonna pay eighty dollars to park down air because
everybody's down there. You drive at ten thirty, there's people everywhere. You don't even what you're doing. You can't park, you can't get out of your car. It's a disaster, right, But if you got the River's couponds, you can park for free. That's what I'll be doing. I'll be going down Air and I'll be parking for free, and I'll be telling you right now that the Pittsburg Stellers lost a football game to the Niners. Everybody's gonna lose to the Niners. The Niners are a great football team. We're
not that bad. We're just not that bad. And I think when you're telling me that the Cleveland Bronze spelled b r a whns, the Cleveland Brons are gonna come into a place where they never have a good time down here. I think, where's one playoff game they played well?
Other than that, they have a hass of horrors. It's a hass of horrors down here.
They're gonna have a real hard time because our Steeler defense is gonna show up. I think our Kenny Pickett, which you know, I was a little skeptical about Kenny Pickett, and I didn't like.
All the hype.
But now Tomlin gets everybody's attention. He says, listen, Insers, I never have a losing season. I can't go ohing two. Give me the Pittsburg Steelers. What's a tow and a half. Thank you.
I have to tell you, first of all, I love the Losers. I love that part the I these are all my contest picks. I'm all. I'm with you on Pittsburgh too, like I absolutely think, and I'll run my head into a wall against him because I ran my head into the wall with him last week. But I really feel like, let me, let me just ask about
the other side, the Brownies part of that. Mike Palm, who used to be on this, on this megapod, he believes, if I heard this correctly, he thinks the Browns are either the second or let me not say that they're a top three NFL team. He believes that do you believe that, Adam, that the Browns are that good?
The aggregate ratings that I look at, which pull power ratings from numerous different sources, have the Browns eight after this week, which I saw on the second to get my head around, because my initial reaction was that that's high. But you know, the one thing that he kind of intrigues me. They added a lot of defensive pieces, especially up front, and the change to Jim Schwartz took this this defense a week ago against the Bengals, if that incase things to come.
They're going from a sort.
Of mid level aggression defense like they were in twenty twenty two against Joe Burrow. He was blitzing a ton, was dating a ton of pressure. Like this defense has completely flipped. And if that's a sign of things to come, and they play rest of every week, you can put the defensive side right up there with the likes of the four Ninders and the Steelers for the best units in the NFL. So I believe it on that side, not there yet unwided. I mean, we're starting to see this rated really high.
Well, Todd, you if you let him finish. That's exactly what he said, which I think is I think most people can get with that. But the defense is maybe top tier. But DeShawn looked like dashit, I guess, is what I would say, right Like, he didn't look good at all.
Yeah, you think that he's better than Zack Wilson because a lot of people making the case that the Jets can be a contender with their defense if the defense is that level and you get more from DeShawn, should the same case be made about the Browns?
What's your point that meaning that Deshaun that that we think of Deshaun Watson is so much better than Zach Wilson, But maybe he isn't Is that what you're saying?
Well, I think the sort of sentiment that I have taken away from a lot of media after the night game for the Jets was that this team can threaten making the playoffs and they would be very close to being a contender if they had like a top level quarterback, and now with Zach Wilson, they can survive because of
their defense and still compete. My question with the Browns is if that defense is on the same level as the Jets, which it's very very well in that conversation, right, if Deshaun Watson is above average, we should be talking about the Browns in the same way that Mike Palm.
Maybe you're right, Maybe he's right. Yeah, maybe so he did.
I mean I got crossed by mind Cleveland ten to one to win the AFC. Browns tend to one at idd. I haven't pulled the trigger, but that's definitely to me they are a fat tails team just because the uncertainty with Watson, the good on defense, I did take them to win the division. I'm high on Cleveland. I think it's a good ross.
My final pick, by the way, as I already mentioned, is gonna be the same as Will's, which is I took Denver. I laid the three and a half. I don't love laying the hook, but I'll lay the hook because as a lifelong Washington fan, this just ain't a game they win. I don't know how else to put it. It's like a Malcolm Gladwell blink kind of thing. I can't really explain it to you, but they don't win this kind of game, and they don't look very good this kind of game. And these are even in the
best years. This is even Joe Gibbs one point zero. They don't go on the road to an unfamiliar AFC opponent, let alone an elevation, and win a game like this, and this outfit with a horrible offensive line, it appears in front of Sam Howe. I don't even blame the kid for that Week one performance. That offensive line was always the big question about the Washington Commanders football team, and it remains the biggest question mark. Because their defensive
front is solid. No one ever questioned that their secondary might be live. It could be much improved, they got skill, they got a few skill position players, certainly Terry McLaurin. Sam Howe's the question. But that offensive line is the big weakness. And I think Denver, who no one ever really questioned their defense last year. They lost that game to the Raiders. One could say that it was lost on the very first decision by Sean Payton to kick that on side kick, which backfired on him, gave the
Raiders a short field. They went up seven to nothing, they won by a point. They don't do that. Maybe the Broncos do win that game. Russell Wilson looks, you know, kind of what you would expect from a guy who looked like crap last year and who might be improved under Sean Payton. But I think he's good enough to, you know, talk about quarterbacks that we just did, like DeShawn and Zach Wilson, who can just do what they
can and let the defense win games for him. I think this applies to Russell Wilson and the Broncos here. I don't think Washington wins this game. I think they don't cover either. I'll take the Broncos minus three and a half.
Do you think they go over seventeen points, gilly, because I don't.
I wouldn't bet the over on it. I'll tell you that.
Todd said, do you think they go over seventeen points? Does he mean Washington?
Yeah, he means, why I don't think Washington.
I don't think Washington can get over seventeen points. That's another team total that I like. In fact, Washington got a lot of their points just because Arizona said, oh, sorry, we don't.
Win this game. Here you can have it. Do you remember Washington in Arizona?
Do you remember the old Eddie Murphy one of the great Eddie Murphy's sketches in Saturday Night Live when he was a regular cast, Remember where he put on makeup to be a white guy, and the whole conceit of the of the sketch was that wins through white when black people aren't around, white people just give each other shit. And there's the famous one where he just go ahead, take the newspaper. That's exactly what Arizona did to Washington last week. Yeah much money would you like? How much
money would you like? That's right? I forgot about that line. It was so great. It's an iconic sketch. Well you know Arizona dead, Washington got the game tying touchdown and sealed the deal on ridiculous Arizona turnovers. So I believe, by the way, that's one one of my survivor entries is just the fade Arizona entry. I don't even think about it. I just robotically take the team against Arizona.
We'll see how far that entry gets. Just doing that teaser of the week, there's a lot of teaser options, Adam, what do you think is the best two team six point teaser?
Well, the Cowboys are borderline right now, so I'll.
House on that one.
I'll go with the Bills down and the forty nine Ers down.
Bills down, forty Nice Bills got into a nice Wong teaser range this morning, right, So that is yes, it did. Yeah, you can go through the seven and the three now with that, So Bills and Niners from Adam, with the uh, the Bills, of course, I already forgot, I already forgot who these teams are are are playing. The Bills of course, are hosting the du Las Vegas Raiders, Raiders, and of course the Niners on the road against the Rams, who looked really good week number one will what's yours.
Twenty options here? I will go with the Bills. Uh take that on your goal, and I'll take the Steelers, which you guys mentioned Steelers Brown's type and no idea, who'snna win. That should be a close game. But I'd be happy to sit there with plus eight and a half my pocket. So Steelers Bills stop.
That's the same thing that I'm doing.
I'm taking the Bills minus to two and a half because I just think that the Bills are gonna somehow.
You know, the Bills will find a way. Although you know Jimmy G.
You know, we always talk about how many balls he throws directly to the other team that don't get turned into interceptions that we call the itch. Jimmy G kind of played a pretty decent gamely, and we might want to tip our hat.
Remember Derek Carr.
I don't know if anybody, if it irks anybody as much as Derek Carr irks me. I watched Derek Carr and he just used to drive me bananas.
And now they don't have him, and now they have Jimmy G.
You know, maybe as Jimmy G a step up from from Derek Carr. I wouldn't be surprised I'd watched that team. I still think the Stills will get their minus to two and a half. And I like my Stillers for the reasons I said already, do.
You think do you think the guys that are about to pick off the passes from Jimmy g they catch a glint of his eyes. They stare him in the eyes, and he's so beautiful that they're like, I can't catch this ball. Do you think that happens?
And I heard one guy say that once actually happened.
Is that right? They're like, oh my god, they don't catch it. I have the exact same teaser. We are doomed. We are so on this. I like the Bills and the and the Steelers. There's no chance. Whenever three people have the same thing, it never works.
Everybody should just go bet the reverse teaser.
It's like a would you say, Todd, it's a w NBA pick of yours. Just fade it. That was what you were saying last night. Just fade me. Yeah, it's Bills. And if the Steelers are gonna kill me again or kill us again, so be it. What is it? Shame on me? Shame on you once, stame on me twice. Whatever it is. Yeah, if I if I jack it up the first time, shame on you, but the second time,
shame on me. This could be that if Steelers can't cover the eight and a half here against the Browns, then oh well, by the way, it's a double header. It's a Monday night double header for those who miss it. I probably should have started out by saying that the Dolphins Patriots game is a Sunday night game, and then we have the Saints Panthers start at seven to fifteen Eastern four to fifteen Pacific, an hour later, so we
won't quite be at halftime. The Browns and the Steelers kick off in Pittsburgh.
Why are they doing that?
It's very odd this was they mentioned this. Now now that it's happening. I remember there was an off season thing where they're like, oh, yeah, this is gonna happen. It's gonna happen more than just this week too. It happens again. I think it might even happen three times this year. I'm not sure. Don't holpe me to.
That, But why don't you just start the pay the Panther game two hours early?
Well, that's the part that bothers me because they when they used to do the opening night Monday night doubleheader, they used to stagger where you could watch everything. Now you're gonna have to have two TVs going, you know.
And then we had the COVID year where we get at these Randy at five o'clock Eastern starts or Tuesday five o'clock. That was the one thing that was fun about that COVID year. We just random games at random times. But this doesn't call a lot of sense, that's right.
Yeah, okay. Which brings us to is our final two questions already? Oh, Survivor, Survivor Adam, are you in Survivor this year? Are you playing Survivor?
Yeah, we're in.
We're in everything and everything all over, so we're loaded up. Don't know, don't know if this will be the one we go with, but it would be my choice.
I'd go with the Saints.
You'd go with the Saints.
Really wow, I would go with the Saints.
I think the I think it's a spot where you can eventually get away from any of these huge favorites which are going to get a lot of the attention. And that's a number there that's I think a little bit more it. I thought the move was really telling to sort of reflect the state of the Panthers. A couple of injuries on the offensive line, showed up and lost their best corner on defense, their wide receivers are banged up, nobody can get open. I think it's a
tough one for the Panthers. So I would go way off the board here I go Saints and hope you get some carnage on Sunday.
Okay, that's I mean again for those who who heard that and are like, what the ad them do it? That's what that's what survivor is about. Though I say that all the time. It's it shouldn't be name survivor. It's right, it's misappropriately named, because again, the object is not to survive. The object is to win. Now Adam is doing it with with you know, Ballsy here early in week two where we don't really have every team sort of with our with our arms wrapped around him yet.
But the object of that is to have like a buffalo, for instance, right to fall and then carnage would ensue, and then if you advance, you're in this awesome position at that point. So New Orleans, the first of the two Monday night games would be his play in Survivor. Didn't expect that will.
I think I'm gonna go with Denver just because the team I don't want to use down the road, and like I mentioned, I don't know that Washington's offensive line is gonna travel well how on the road. I want to know a team versus the oh and to one team. So yeah, I think it's gonna be Denver. I'm not, I'm not. It's not penciled in, you know, it's not written in stone at this point, but it's going to be Denver.
I had five entries to begin with, and Survivor I lost on Denver last week as the only one that went out. I'm going to have Denver on one more of them this week, and if I lose on them again, Uh, Todd, excuse my language, Todd.
I haven't looked the whole thing over yet, but just off the top of my head, I might have to take the Giants again. Its Arizona.
You know, I don't think that I'm gonna be using the Giants down the road because I don't really love the Giants. So probably the Giants, but I haven't really looked it over yet.
To So I meant on Wednesday, I mentioned on a Numbers game on Wednesday, I have four entries left. One will be the Broncos and one will be the Giants for sure, the Giants being the fade Arizona one. So for me, it's that, and then I think I'll have to include Buffalo as well. I'm not gonna go I'm not gonna push all on one team, but some combination of Buffalo, Denver and the Giants. For me, what could possibly go wrong? What could possibly go wrong? All right?
Final two questions, and again, let me just apologize in advance to everybody. Not in advance, but while it's happening, I know the audio has not been up to snuff on this particular show. I think we've gotten the gist of everything everybody's saying, though, I promise you this will not be the case moving forward, nor has it ever been before. Unacceptable. I'm not gonna have the megapod messed with. So final two questions of the big favorites, and let
me list the ones that qualify. Which is the one Adam that you think is the most likely to lose? Outright? This is also sort of the money line parlay killer segment, if you will. So the Eagles are I'm seeing some ticks six concent six point favorites tonight at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Also a choice in this. The Buffalo Bills eight and a half point favorites at home against the Raiders. The San Francisco forty nine ers are seven
now seven no longer seven and a half. Seven point favorites at home excuse me on the road, pardon me against the at the Los Angeles Rams Cowboys, eight and a half or nine point favorites at home against the New York Jets, and those Oh and then yeah, those are your options. Of those four I believe I mentioned four, one, two, three, four, which is the most likely to lose outright.
Have to say, the Eagles, a really powerful group hit the Jets yesterday, which makes me sort of want to go that direction. But I think the Vikings of these underdogs, has the best offense by quite a considerable margin, and so in terms of getting some points to pull the up said, I would go to Minnesota in that one.
By the way, when we did this last week, Will had Kansas City. They lost out right. Feazick and I had Minnesota. They lost out right, Todd, what did you have? You had the.
The Jets.
You had the clses to be the Jets, and they might have to be the Jags, and they almost did. By the way, how did the Colts not cover that game? Good? Good grief.
Let's move on. Let's move on. I don't need to relive that. Let's just move on.
Oh my god. They were up with the ball with like twelve minutes left, and then they that punt return from chabal Agnes changed everything.
They were also at the one yard line for the back door touchdown, and then their quarterback got a boo boo, and then they put in some other guy who's terrible and would even get it in garden.
Part of let's move on was unclear. Let's just I don't have to be that was awful, all.
Right, will same question. What's the big favorite most likely to lose out right this week?
I'll go Dallas Jets defense in the in the game. I'm sorry, I couldn't hear who he asked, but I will go with the Cowboys just because the defense of the Okay, god, I mean, I know, I.
Said the Bills. I like the Bills and the teaser. But I could make a case.
For the Jimmy g Raiders going into Buffalo and you know, using the Jets.
You know, maybe there's something wrong with the Bills. I mean, I don't really think there is there is. I just think that was a Jets defense and that's what everybody thinks. But maybe there maybe there's some tape that shows how to slow the Bills down and the Raiders could figure it out.
Yeah, I think I have to pick the Bills too, not because I think it's going to happen, like you said, but if I'm thinking about the Niners, which by the way, isn't exactly as as much as I love the Niners, like, the little part of me wonders about that too. But I think the Bills are the one, and yes they should have beaten the Jets, but the Josh Allen not caring for the football thing, you know, the three picks to Jordan Whitehead obviously the fun Well, he's a fumble machine.
He's had the most turnovers in the NFL since the year twenty nineteen of any quarterback. And if as long as you're a turnover machine, there's always that chance, right, So he's to me, they're the answer the Buffalo Bills, even though I don't think it's gonna happen, They're the answer to that question.
The coach thinks too. I'm not a McDermott fan. The thirteen seconds in Kansas City last year, the no show at Big Favorite to Home against the Bengals. I thought he coached a terrible game the other night, overtime and second and fifteen he runs a draw. I mean, how do you lose that game the other night? To me, McDermott's not a good coach.
And do you agree with what I said on You know, I said this during the game we were texting Will and then I also mentioned it on Guessing Lines on Monday, which is Bucket. Aikman did not seize on this at all. That second that penalty, that offensive PI that would have pushed a zero line field goal from forty three yards to fifty three if the Jets didn't move the ball.
He just said, decline the penalty, and Zerline kicks a forty three yard field goal, which cut the score from to thirteen to six at the time, and Aikman and buck said nothing, And I thought like they might have lost the game. On that in the end, Like, that's a terrible decision, right there.
Not a fan, not a fan of the coach at all.
Yeah, anyway, I will love to trip somebody on a punt return, very very obviously. Is that now part of the rout?
Is that part of the rules you're allowed to just throw your leg down and trip a guy on a punt return.
Yeah, Well, what was got a lot of backlash. What would Todd is referring to is on the winning punt return from Gibson that there was a there was a
trip that went uncalled. And John Perry, they're officiating consultant on the broadcast, made a point to say that the issue with what people had with what he said was is that it comes with an asterisk, right, that the win comes with an asterisk, which I bet anyway, Yeah, which I believe was on the heels of Tariko the previous week when the Lions beat the Chiefs saying this win comes with an asterisk because they didn't have Travis Kelce or Chris So. I think people got really pissed
about that. But listen, it was it probably a call, Yeah, it probably was. But like stuff gets missed all the time, and we.
Were still in orderline field goal range, and all these games bleed together. Wasn't there an early whistle at some point where the Jets had a fumble and maybe a fumble were a touchdown and they blew it dead? Or is that m I think of a different game.
Maybe you're thinking of the Cal game on Saturday night where Cal got posed by that Cal should have had a defensive touchdown and it got whistled dead ended up costing them the game.
Probably, I'm trying to think. I think it was the Jets game where they I don't know if they were reviewed it. It was in the first half where I think they blew an early whistle. They blew something dead. I'm trying to think of the play.
Yeah, well, the reason I got so upset with that will is I had the game to land odd and if they kicked the field though, nineteen sixteen is the final and I don't know how the game doesn't land odd.
It was like so perfectly set up, you know, thirteen thirteen, give me sixteen thirteen, give me nineteen sixteen, give me anything that is the norm away it's supposed to land and I win, and then the kicker, the punter doesn't olay even after the trip, all that punter guy has to do is like hold him up just a little bit and the cavalry is gonna come and make the tackle at the seven, they kick the field goal. No, that guy doesn't completely olay touch that.
I was live undering that game repeatedly, and the fact that I only ended up winning like two of those live unders, or even like the pre flop and one live was just ridiculous. In the end, You're like, I cannot believe I didn't win all of these, Like that was just such a such an unbelievable result of that game. I alluded to this earlier that off air, Adam, you're a Jets fan, Bryan Tannehill is the guy you would want on the roster. Now, that's who you would like.
Yeah, I think it was.
Alva tweeted it this morning, and it was It was a perfect explanation when you think about trying to find the veteran quarterback that's not somebody that's been on the shelf or away from real playing time for the better part of two or three years, like most other lists conceived of, Tannehill's the guy that is for the team that has the most to evaluate. Behind him, Willis took what looked to be a pretty considerable second year leap.
They also have Will Levis and Tannehill's been a guy that's got teams with our last offensive talent as that game manager role to the playoffs in the past too. So I think that that could work now when it comes to the whole cap situation and capital and what cannon cannot be given up, that's a whole different conversation, but I think that would be the name that certainly jumps up the most of me.
No, that is that that is more than one surprising thing from you on on this show, the survivor pick being the other one.
I is available as well as jig del home and Don Strock available.
Don Strock always a reliable backup. You gotta go with Don Strock. Uh No. And I was also saying, because there was like all these other reports, Oh, why they're interested in Jacoby present? Why in the world would Washington trade Jacoby percent that like to go the rest of the year with Sam Howell and Jake from State Farm. They don't want to do that. They don't want to do that at all. So I mean there's there's some of these Chris Collins worst famous line most important position
is quarterback. Second most important position is backup quarterback. So a lot of these that are speculative. I'm just like, why would that team do that? Tannehill about that guy Dutch? Tannehill makes sense, but the Steelers had that guy Dutch Hobbs or what.
Was his name.
He had like a funny name, duck Yeah, yeah, douc Hodges or something like that.
Yeah, you can't quarterback?
What does it? Will say again, will you can't?
Just want to go back? I think he was in a press conference and they were asking me a second question, a third question about the quarterback. He goes, look, guys, what do you think I can do? Just pick up the phone and dial wanting hundred quarterback and they bring me a player.
It's not how it worked, That's right, uh Adam. Also, before before we asked the final question, you said, also, I don't want to put you on the spot, but like you have, you have some opinions. What would you characterize as like your most outlying opinion right now, based on either the market or based on what you're hearing, just sort of anecdotally, what what do you believe that most others don't.
Oh what stands out the most right now?
I think that I think Cowboys vaccines?
Adam, I guess, yeah, what do you think about the vacs?
He said? Opinion? No, I think Cowboys super Bowl. Gil.
I don't know how out just that counts, as but that one, that one I've come to sort of accept over the last couple of weeks. I think that that offense is going to be really really good.
So you you have the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.
I think Cowboys win the win.
Wow. Okay, let me ask you reverse because I asked this, and I think this has even even more insightful. What is the what is the thing or the opinion, the shared consensus opinion that you've heard either this offseason or even after Week one that you hear and you're still like, what the hell are these people talking about? Like I just can't get to where they're getting about Team X.
That's another good one.
Let's go on that one with the Chargers offense changing to this electric, deep downfield passing, explosive unit.
I know that's what Kellen Moore is saying.
We saw them do nothing but run the football against Miami and I know you can kind of look at the geo stuff and say the scheme forces that. I get it, but that's a Dolphins defense that's not ready yet.
And so I think Kellen Moore in his early run rates from Dallas have carried over to the Chargers, and with Staley as the head coach, as aggressive as he might be, there's kind of a want to keep things how they looked in week one, and it just might be an offense that, because of how defenses play them, is going to rely on the run a lot. So that would be something that I hear all over that I certainly believe during the summer that I'm really sort of switching my gears on with that.
Okay, good answer.
Can we still call Staley aggressive? Would you still quantify him as aggressive? I'm asking this rhetorically at him. I mean, he's he was so different year one from here two.
I think deep down he still is. But this is kind of like that Feazic comment I made, where the media changes you no matter. We see it all the time with coaches, it's really hard to stay at that level a sort of pres cater to keeping your job and balancing it. So think I think what he was to start with all those decisions is who he wants to be. I think the media has changed and sort of balanced him out and say it's not uncommon with coaches that make which.
Do you agree with what I was saying at the beginning, which is though that like he got destroyed by some people for all of the you know what was perceived as reckless risk taking on fourth downs in year number one on it and now doesn't like everybody play like he does. Maybe not everybody, but so many do.
Yeah, And that's like football watching media, and we're we're all in that, but we're all kind of nuts when it comes to this stuff because something stands out that's a little bit different. We get to this like collective opinion on how we're supposed to watch football and what we should expect to happen, and then it slowly changes, but no one ever really acknowledges there's consistently changing into something new.
That's what I'm trying to Yeah, right, And so now.
There's almost more criticism for coaches that don't go for it rather than criticism for coaches that do go for it.
When they get it wrong.
And it's shifting now to like a weird difference, and so that's kind of where we're at.
Yeah, we called it.
That's called the computer dating situation.
If you remember when computer dating first came out, when the Internet came out, and people.
Were like, oh, what are you crazy?
You're gonna go on a computer and date somebody on computer? And I believe now everyone dates off the computer. So it's you know, human beings have this weird thing where they think something's crazy until all of a sudden they decide.
It's not crazy.
And most people are followers anyways. If you've ever seen those experiments where they have like ten people in a room and they all say that the one line is longer than the other, even though it's clearly not because they're all working with the doctor. And then the tenth guy comes in and they ask him, and he obviously knows it that they're all lying, but he can't bring himself to buck the people even though he clearly knows.
So human beings have this tendency, and you know, gamblers are no different, so that doesn't shock me at all.
That's Todd's favorite experiment that he likes to site. I love that. I love that it is so true it's such the human mind is so impressionable and so malleable, right, It's why it's why cults exist, by the way, the sports equivalent or just the thing that popped in my head.
And I think Will and I have talked about, certainly Jason and I have talked about, you know how in baseball we realize the analytics community realized, oh, these baseball card stats wins losses on a pitcher, it actually doesn't control a lot of that, Like it shouldn't be, you know, because back in the day, oh my god, this guy's win loss record is this, and we thought it was so bigger than finally, like Felix won a cy Young winning twelve games. I believe it was in twenty ten,
and so we finally like the pendulum swung. Well now it's almost like at the point where we almost undervalue it, right, if we do have a picture that wins twenty games, it's almost this weird thing where it's like, well, shouldn't that actually be a thing in some way because we've
like completely thought that it means nothing. Well means something, right, So it's like I'm just saying, like the group think on a lot of this stuff, it's maybe it's dirty analogy, but the group think on some of this stuff goes way too far. You know. Not everything is one hundred percent in zero pcent or black and white as we like to say. Uh okay, final question, bizarro world. All sixteen games, you have to bet a side in fifteen of them, Adam, which is the game you want no
part of? On the side?
Seahawks Lions? Gil. I know you like Seattle.
I feel like in every other year of my existence, I would like Seattle.
Just I worry a.
Little bit if the league is caught up to Gino and this offense is just right.
Oh, I'm staying away.
You could be right. I could be very wrong on that, Dad. Oh no, let's go will.
I will go Chiefs Jaguars, I mean Jaguars, thank you, thank Yould, Andy Reid with extra time to repair, looking avoid oh and two, you can make a case for the Chiefs, But I'm just I'm not looking away three and a half on the road with that team against the Jags. So that's a that's a pretty easy pass for me.
God, I don't want any part of the Packers. Jordan Love proved me wrong last week. I'm not I'm still not sold on the guy. The Falcons are going to be three yards in a cloud of dust, John Fox Football. Let the other team beat itself and we'll we'll get wins and I'll take the Yank He's team total under today.
I don't know if anybody.
Has seen who they're trouting out there, but the lineup would be better if me and Gil and Will were hitting two, three, four?
Are you kidding me? This is Will Hill's favorite thing in the world is looking at the Yankees lineup every days. It's his big it's his monogram, it's his calling card.
Wh what Will I.
Dude?
The Yankees are having Florrial as well's Volpie Bowers, Praza, Cabrera, Perera. Uh.
And that's Mike Perera, the NFL guy on Fox.
And he's going to be hitting nine Yankees tonight. So this game goes off in twenty minutes. You know what if I lose, I lose Yankees team total under. I'm sorry, that's not a major league.
Lineup, first five or full game? Todd, what are you doing for anybody who catches this early enough? Would you say, are you doing full game or first five on the team total?
Oh?
I'm doing both. I can't believe this lineup.
Yeah, okay, mine is actually the Dolphins game the Dolphins Patriots game, just because of what I said earlier, which is I don't know what's real and what's not, Like are the is the Patriots defense really all that good? Or was that just because they played an Eagles team that played nobody in the preseason or are they who a lot of us thought they were just not that
not very good? And the same thing applies to the Dolphins, like that defense was so bad and yet they showed up the last drive obviously, And is that offense really that good? Can it be that good week after week? I should I should mention that I bet I bet Tyreek Hill MVP seventy five to one yesterday. It's my Louis Arias try to hit four hundred bet in baseball.
Didn't happen, by the way, it's three forty nine. But the theory being that if Louis Ariya has hit four hundred, which would be the first time since nineteen forty one, obviously a hallowed record, that they'd have to vote an MVP. Obviously, this is not as hallowed a record. In football stats, aren't as hallowed in football as they are in baseball.
But if he gets two thousand yard receiving this whole nonsense that the NFL MVP only goes to quarterbacks, which has been the case the last four years, Like, I think a lot of voters would have to be like, oh, this has never happened before, we got to vote for this guy for MVP. So anyway, I feel great about the Dolphins offense. But on the other hand, I don't know. Maybe that was just one game aberrational. So that's the game I want no part of. Really, I can tell
you're all very moved by that. Ok.
I would just very quickly say, I mean we both talked to Aaron Shott before and he's been very clear, Hey, I can never really never see myself voting for a non quarterback ever. Again.
He could never see himself, oh, right, because of his analytics viewpoint. He can't do it because the quarterback is so much more valuable. Right. He texted me yesterday with with very harrowing whereds. He says, I just want to break this to you personally football outsiders, which swear he used to work, but he's still he's at FTN now and he's still he's the owner of the DVOA proprietary
DVOA stat because that's his he created it. The ninety one Washington Redskins were always the greatest team of all time. So he says, I have good news and bad news. I refined the analysis. He says, now the two thousand and seven Patriots are actually rated higher than the nineteen ninety one Redskins. The good news who the nineteen ninety one Skins.
No, no, no, who's the other team.
To the two thousand and seven Patriots who were undefeated till they lost in the Super Bowl. But he said, the good news is I haven't evaluated the playoffs the postseason yet. He believes that ninety one Skins will go ahead of the Patriots again once he evaluates the postseason. So anyway, that's the updates. Since you bring up, Aaron Shotts will be a guest on this show later this month on the megapod, so look forward to that. Again. My apologies last apology about the the audio problems. Will
work that out. Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports. Adam always appreciated man, Thank you so much for making the time.
Thanks very much guys. Always great to be here.
God wish Nev from his mom's dining room today. And Will Hill, who's on the bear Bets podcast. When did the bear Bets podcast come out? Will?
Thursday? The college ones that should be coming out by the time you listen to this, that should be out, and then tomorrow morning is the NFL ones to look for those, And yeah, this was fun. I'm in with Toddy Yankees first five team total. I can't find better than minus one fifty five, but I'm gonna roll with it.
Here under first five and Todd's doing both first five the full game. Thank you all for listening. Good luck with your week two bets in the National Football League.