Thursday morning, December twenty, first Week sixteen in the National Football League. It's the Beating the Book podcast Megapod Week sixteen. My God, three weeks left in the NFL season. It's Gil Alexander. We welcome in the crew our stables on the show, back to his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He loves when I say that, Todd wish them everybody. How you doing Dad? Hi?
Gil? How are you?
I'm doing great? A lot of requests for Christmas songs from you to day? Can we expect some Christmas songs on the show.
You know, I don't really like being prompted to be perfect.
I understand. I understand You're an organic, natural kind of guy. Uh. Not from his mom's cork attic, but in front of a big wall that has vs and logos all over it. It is the star of not only this podcast, but also the bear Bets podcast with Chris Filika on Fox.
Will Hills Hadden It Gilly boys, what's going on?
Excited is always It's funny.
I joked that last week I might have had the worst pick in megapot history because I had under Jaggs Browns. I think it was thirty one and a half and both teams almost got the over by themselves.
I think I outdid myself.
I had the under that Raiders Chargers game last week, and that one did not get home.
So let's see what I got hooked up for today.
It just missed, Will, It just missed? Was the final sixty sixty two to twenty one? Was the final thing game? Sixty three one, sixty three to twenty one? Yeah? Well, you know, Will, there's always a third week to continue that streak.
But it's better to lose like that.
It is just get crushed. Yeah. And our rotating guests this week, who reminded me that this is his first non Week eighteen appearance on the podcast, after which I spiraled into a drugs depression at alcohol because I felt like I was totally rude from Yahoo Sports. It's Frank Schwab. It's our old buddy. Hey, you know, Frank, It was fine.
It's just, you know, it's nice to be picking in a week that games actually matter, matters, teams actually care.
I get it.
You're giving me the tryout, you know, seeing if I can handle Week eighteen before bumping me up to a week that mattered, But uh as always Gil glad to be on. You've done great work for years that I always always.
Enjoy the show.
And it's always a little strange being a guest on the show.
Oh, I appreciate it. Who was it this week? Pritch? Pritch was on last week Mike Pritchard, and he said, he goes, yeah, I was a little nervous with my picks, like it's really competitive on the podcast, and who is Adam Chernoff told me also, like all the stuff that Adam Chernoff does at Right Angle, he said to me, you know earlier this year, he's like, I get more nervous for my Mega bod picks than anything.
Oh that's so true. It's but this is my third time. I think it's my third time.
Both the first two times, I've never sweated games more on a Sunday and like I don't want to go, like I don't want to like go o with three and the teaser loses and everything else loses, and you're like, yeah, Gill's gonna lose my number.
Oh no, no, no, no no. Speaking of records, Todd wishedev is the court stenographer. He has the updates. Oh, Todd say it's slow and loud. Did we lose? Wow? Okay? First, could you could you be quicker? Could you be quicker on the draw? Maybe I was.
Just checking out Central Connecticut, Florida. Okay, So Gilly Iceman keeps his lead, it looks like we're not going to catch it this year, folks. He went two and one with a nice lines and falcons Kansas City falcons.
Wow.
What can you say about the falcons? That was just unbelievable.
They they caught, he goes they cost fifteen twenty nine to fifteen and one. Is that what you're about to say? I was just going to say that the falcons cost me as a massive week. Yeah, go ahead, Todd, I'm sorry.
And one for which is, you know, pretty as good as you're going to get, you know, twenty nine to fifteen one. That's pretty darn good. Willie went two and one as well with his under Raiders barely missing by a scooch. As we were just talking about Lions winning easily and Bill's winning easily, I went one to one and one with a falcons as well. I follow Gilly and the falcons nonsense. So I lost that hit the
colts and then the Browns. I got a miracle push when the Browns came from you know, nowhere'sville to win that game. So now I am twenty two twenty and three, and the guest spot went one and two. Mike Pritchard went one and two with the Broncos, Bucks and Giants, So the guest spot moved to twenty four eighteen and three. In the teaser world, the category that really makes makes a difference. Gilly is nine and six, Willie is ten and five, Todd is eleven and four. That's the best
there is and the guest is ten and five. So you know, while our picks have been you know, amazing from at least from Gil our teasers, everybody's been winning on teasers very nicely this year.
What did Pritch do last week?
Why?
Wait, Todd? What did he do?
Pritch went one and two?
Two? Can you can you Todd? Can you turn off your Todd? Can you turn off your video? Because your audio is un jacked? So let's get this, because I wanted to sound good to people. You can turn off your video?
Oh wait, maybe maybe because I had my phone sitting on there? Is it better now?
It is not? Can you turn off your video so better. Yeah, we don't know. Let's just turn. How do you do that?
Is that?
Is that the way? There we go? Okay, battling. That'll improve the audio for everybody. Thank you, Todd, wish now for your do you hear me?
Now?
We can hear you now you sound great? Okay, hopefully that improves the audio because no one wants we didn't want to hear it all Jacked, all.
Right, I didn't know what it was, Jack, No.
I know you didn't. Okay, so let us uh, let's talk. Do you have anything in game, Todd from last week that you wanted to talk about real quick?
I've been having a lot of success with these uh these I mean running back these running back props. When when these guys are gad people and the game is in a scenario where the guy's going to get more carries, it's very often difficult for them to keep it below. There was one last week I didn't even get it
off because it's spun on me. But Walker for the Seahawks on Monday night, I believe had fifty yards and they were putting it up at seventy three and a half early in the second half, and I'm like, well, that's just too low because I think he was averaging also like five yards of carry. There's been a lot of these, like I had Kyraen Williams a couple times in a row with the five yards and carry nonsense. I got him again this week. They boosted him a
little higher. This time it was like he had seventy yards rushing and it was over one twenty two and a half. He went flying over that as well. But anyways, that's been working pretty good. Also, Cole Comet seems to be thrown. They throw him the ball constantly and he's always at over three and a half catches. Sooner or later, I'm sure they're going to boost him up. But if they start throwing him the ball beginning him in game a lot too. As far as a just regular end game.
I had a really good week this week. I'm trying to think if there was any anything that really stood out as very interesting. Nothing that I can, but it comes to mind.
That's fine, that's fine. Let us get to Thursday night football. Then tonight it is the Saints at the Rams. Rams are four point favorites. Bowl behind me here at the d Circus Sports it's three and a half in favor of the Rams in this ball game two seven and seven teams. I hesitate to call it a de facto elimination game because whenever you're dealing with NFC South team, nothing is ever an elimination game until the very end, because the Saints are very much alive, but obviously both
teams fighting for playoff spots. Rams have been gashing opponents, and good opponents number one and number two in EPA per play included in their last four weeks, the Browns and the Ravens. They've scored one hundred and thirty two points over the last four weeks with Kyra and williams now back in the lineup. They've averaged twenty seven points per game with him fourteen point twenty five without him in the lineup. So the Rams are getting it done on offense for sure, and the Saints play a lot
of man. They also feed a lot to the to the defenses, excuse me, to the offenses slot receivers. So hello Cooper cup tonight as well, it would seem, and Matthew Stafford's been great top three and adjusted net yards.
Hello, can't hear you at all? Gilly? I lost you, Killy can you guys hear him? Still?
I can't. Now I'm back. What was that? Okay, we'll work it out, We've allly, I mean it's only fifteen weeks. We'll work it out. Fifteen sixteen weeks? Yeah? No, what was I saying? Matthew Stafford last four weeks ranks top three and adjusted net yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and EPA per play. So the Saints are up against it here for sure. But there's a case to be made for the Saints. I guess as well. I have not made a bet on this. Do any of you have
a bet on this game tonight? Which way? Frank, anything from you?
I like the Saints a little bit, I guess. I think we saw them play really well last week. I know it's the Giants, but the Giants had been playing better. The one thing I worry about with the Saints here massive look ahead spot. Next week's game at Tampa Bay is basically the NFC South Championship game. Whatever that means, I don't know, But you wonder if the Saints are or just that's their focus, that's their super Bowl. But
the wild guard windows open for the Saints too. They can't just go into this game and drop it they I think you're gonna see. I think it's a field goal game either way. I really I just can't quit the Saints. I look at their talent. They've disappointed me all season. This team should be better. I know Dennis Allen is not a good coach. He's probably getting fired, but I look at how they played last week, some of the Rams deficiencies, and I think the Saints can
at least keep this close. Especially look at it was four and a half earlier this week. I took a little bit of it. I think it's just gonna be close. A Thursday night close game between two teams that are really really fighting for playoff spot.
Second to last Thursday Night game of the year. Todter will anything on this tonight.
I agree with everything Frank said.
I was close to making it my third pick with the Saints, but I'm gonna go in a different direction. I just don't think they're gonna win the game, like I said, like Frank said, I could see Rams by a field goal. I don't love the Saints team the Rams. I don't think they're good enough on defense, So it's definitely I bet it.
It's just not gonna be one of my three picks.
God, I don't want to take the Rams. I just don't trust the Rams. I mean, I think they're pretty good on offense. I think they're like a a slightly above average team, but you can't really trust them, you know. And I don't trust their defense at all. So that's why I don't want to lay lay the points there. And you know, I would lean to the over, but I don't love it either.
If Puka Nakua averages six catches and one hundred and four yards receiving the last three games of the season, he will have broken both the receptions and receiving yards records for rookies in National Football League history, which I think is a little detail lost on most.
Who has the record?
Is it moss uh got to be miss Jefferson on reception? Yeah Jefferson, No, Jalen Waddle. Jalen Wattle had.
A oh right, yeah, he had one hundred seven or something one.
Hundred and four two years ago. And in terms of receiving yards, who could forget Bill Grohman's nineteen sixty season when he had fourteen hundred and seventy three yards or saving Who could forget that.
Any of these guys there should be an asterisk because, like Moss is a rookie should have all the records.
He was the most dominant rookie I've ever seen.
Where did Moss faith you know, end up on both of these lists. Moss in terms of receptions wasn't really even close, but he.
Had a ton of tell you might have like twenty something touchdowns as a rookie.
He was just off man.
Yeah, seventeen eighteen, Yeah, he is unbelievable.
Oh, receiving yards, he is fifth all time receiving yards nineteen ninety eight. Randy Moss would be fifth all time.
They should change on should be.
First, so one at a time will go ahead.
I said they should change that from fifth to first.
They should audit record though.
That was not Culpeper, that was Brad Johnson. In the middle of the season, Randall Cunningham came.
Cunningham, Yeah, I was at that game at Lambo.
I was at that game at Lambo, and he just it was like watching a rocket ship landed a middle of the field, Like, Wow, the NFL is changed again. This guy is absolutely gonna be one of the greats of all time.
And she ended up being that.
Just a Monday night game.
Ra Yeah, yeah, they broke the Packers long winning streak. They just blasted them as thirty seven twenty something. It wasn't even that close.
Top Peterson played quarterback for the Packers that night.
Top six all time seasons for receiving rookie rookie receiving yards Groman nineteen sixty again, who could Forget It? Twenty twenty one, Chase hold On toime seem twenty twenty, Todd hold On one second, Todd twenty twenty one, Jamar Chase and second twenty twenty, Jefferson in third two thousand and three, Anklon Bolden in fourth, nineteen ninety eight, Moss in fifth, and twenty fourteen, obj in sixth.
Were you saying, ja miss like four games at the beginning of the season.
I think so. Yeah, Nikou was nice the season Nikko was in ninth. Currently, Todd, what were you saying?
What team was Bill Groman on in nineteen sixty?
Oh you had to ask, huh Bill? Bill Groman was on the AFL Houston team.
Oh, yes, I do remember him. I'm throwing it was Pastorini to Groman. I totally remember.
I think it was pre Pastorini too. Yeah, AFL Houston Oilers. By the way, how about the how about the Tennessee Titans going Houston Oilers throwbacks against the Houston Texans? Was that not the most distasteful thing ever? They like left Houston in a dispute and then they're like trolling them with the Houston Oilers throwbacks. Anyway.
That was not nice, not very nice.
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All right, which brings us to our best bets one, two, and three. Uh Frank schwa from Yeah, Frank will start with one from you your number one?
Yeah, and you know I get it road favorites. It always looks better than it is. But I really couldn't believe the Bengals are only giving two here. The Steelers look like they're just cooked, like they're just let's get the offseason here. They know their playoff hopes are done. And I can't believe I'm saying this, but I believe in Jake Browning. You watch your tape of this guy, and he's legit. What more do you want from him? He's throw for two or seventy five yards at each
of the last three games. They've won each of those games, and he kind of thought in the Minnesota game, like, all right, he's turning O to a pumpkin. This is what we're getting out of Jake Browning. And then in that fourth quarter in overtime, it was like, Okay, I guess he's just good. I get I don't know how you can go until your fifth season removed from college without taking an NFL snap and be a good, viable NFL quarterback.
But he's here. Do I like that Jamar Chase is not there? No, of course not.
But I think this Bengals team is good, and I think they're kind of invigorated a little bit by the challenge of getting to the playoffs without Joe Burrow. Obviously they wish Joe Burrow was there. He's not, but I think they're like, we're gonna rally around this guy, and we're gonna make the playoffs without Joe Burrow.
I like everything about this Bengals team.
I like nothing about the Steelers team, and I was shocked it was less than field goal all day on the Bengals. Steelers somehow come back, rise up, whatever. I just haven't seen anything out of the Steelers team their last three games give me any kind of indication that they're alive this season.
I just think they're waiting for.
The offseason to get here and then we're gonna have a long conversation about Mike Tomlins.
And Mason Rudolph is the starter for the.
Pittsburgh Steelers save anything that doesn't happen.
Yeah, Mason rud So. So the Steelers, in order to keep the Mike Tomlin never having had a losing season thing alive, must go one one in one down the stretch, and Mason Rudolph is their choice. Start those festivities off this weekend. God, what's your favorite?
I don't know if I don't know if Yin's remembered it, but Mason Rudolph and that couldn't even beat out Doc Hodges and one of them seasons there. That's how bad Mason Mason Rudolph is that that he might be worse than Truebisky. Uh you know, I couldn't agree more with Frank. The Steelers look like we're in big We're in big, big trouble, and Mason Rudolph is not the I'd much rather have just Najee Harris lining up down there and you know, running the old uh, you know, running the
old what do they call it? The wildcat? Just run the wildcat instead of uh, you know. Anyways, well, who am I going to How do.
You feel about Najie Harris as a running back? Has he been a complete bust in your opinion?
I think part of it is that the line is so bad. I mean, the line is just it never breaks any home. Although the other kid has been better.
Yeah, he's been great.
Yeah, yeah, So maybe Najiherris is a bust.
I don't know.
It's a shame. I thought Naji Harris was going to be good. By the way. I agree with Frank. I think the Bengals have a little chip on their shoulder. They've hurt a little too much. Oh, Joe Burrows the greatest guy in the history of the world, and he's why we went to the Super Bowl, and the rest of us suck. You know what, There's some other good players on the Bengals, you know, and I think they may want to prove that they could go to the playoffs.
I actually had that as my fourth pick of the week. I was almost going to use that, but I changed my mind. Now, is it true that Taylor Heinike is going to be the starter for the Atlanta Falcons? As I believe that.
To be true. So Desmond Ridder played the first eight games of the year, then they turned to Taylor Heinecke. He played two, Desmond Ridder played the next four. They went two and two, but apparently lost to Carolina last week was enough to Arthur Smith over the edge. So Heinike is the starter for the rest of the season.
And I'm going with the Falcons minus one. You know, the Falcons have some talent on offense, and I liked their offense a lot better when they had Taylor Heinekee playing quarterback than Ritter. Ridder throws these incredible interceptions where he's just staring the guys down. You just can't believe it. Last week he did you guys, what did me? In as well? And the megapod picks with that interception inside the five, I mean, you can't throw that in the NFL.
I mean, I mean, are they teaching him with the film? Do they have film over there in Atlanta and show him what he's doing wrong? Because it's ridiculous. But with Heinike, they did move the ball. I feel like he's a much better quarterback than Ritter and they have some talent. I think you also get them after an embarrassing week now, I mean how embarrassing it is to lose to the Carolina Panthers. You did not even score a touchdown. By the way, Oh, that was a great end game that
I had. You asked me about end game before they had up in the second quarter of a monsoon, the Panthers to get less than one and a half touchdowns in the game minus one forty five. I said, are you kidding me? Wo, the Panthers can't may not get one touchdown, forget about two touchdowns. So I pounded that one under one and a half touchdowns minus one forty five. Early in the second quarter, when I saw that rain
coming down, I was like, this is ridiculous. So okay, anyways, my point is the Falcons are probably going to be playing their best game this week. The Colts. You know, I hate to go against the Colts because I like them, But I just feel like, you know, you're you're getting one team on the on the low, you're getting the other team on the high. So I want to sell high by low. I'm gonna go with the Falcons minus one, all.
Right, And it looks like I've been right. That could be the end of her Desmond Ridder period in Atlanta feels like. But we'll see will hill Wilson Hillson.
I'll have what Todd's having.
This is my first pick for all the reasons Todd mentioned not a Ridder guy.
Heineke at least like.
We He saw him play nose to nose with Tom Brady in a playoff game. But was that that COVID year in twenty twenty. He's okay, He's not the answer, he's not the solution, but he's better than Ritter. I have not understood all year, this loyalty to Ridder. He took a flyer on him in the.
Middle of the draft. It didn't work.
Look, he can throw the ball at all, he can run around. You're going to see why he's a backup at some point. But I think you get a little boost here.
And also this is.
A fate of Indie Indian's knocking on defense. Minshew's a turnover waiting to happen. Stikeen's done a good job propping him up, propping this team up, but this is still a very flawed team. So I will take Atlanta here.
If you guys are right, and then Atlanta wins that game. Bet it's going to take the win out of the sales of Shane Steiken's Coach of the Year candidacy in a very competitive coach of the year market where Dan Campbell remains the short shot, followed by Demiico Ryans and Shane Stiken. Demiko Ryans has his own trouble in that category because CJ. Straud will be out it looks like from not getting out of concussion protocol again this week
in their game against the Cleveland Browns. But that's another story. All right, me, I'm staking I do two. My first play is Todd get ready the Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, Gillies waiting to get burned. We know what happens when they play a good team and the Cowboys are coming in off of destructive blow.
Outlawst It's the Bully Bowl between the Cowboys and the Dolphins, two teams that generally crush everybody who's worse than them generally, and get popped in the mouth when they play somebody their own size. The Dolphins are only one point favorites now at home against the Cowboys. I love the Matt Brown think about the Cowboys defense, which is people think of them as having this great pass rush generating defense. It's not. It's my Parsons. No one else generates any
pass rush at all. And I think that this speed of this Dolphins team, which unlike the Cowboys, who have these unbelievably stark home road splits where they're seven to zero at home with like a plus twenty four point point differential on average versus on the road where they're three and four, and they're actually in the minus numbers. Obviously on average, we know that the Dolphins are fast
on any track. I actually think that they expose the Cowboys defense here, and I think the Dolphins win the Bully Bowl and the Cowboys lose their second straight and I think the Dolphins, still reeling from that loss of the Titans two weeks ago, which really could have been a season killer, and still might yet prove to be a season killer for them if they end up having
to go on the road in the playoffs. I think the Dolphins get it done in one of the marquee matchups, one of two marquee matchups in the NFL this week. So the Dolphins are pick number one, my two and three. Jesus, I'll just start with my second ear. God help me. I don't like this team, and I'm not going to live through this game. But I think the Raiders are getting too many points against the Chiefs. I think, what is it ten and a half hour? Ten? What are you giving me.
Here, Bokmaker? I see ten most places.
Yeah, you're right, most ten. Still, there's a lot of ten and a halfs, but most are tens. I'll take the ten with the Raiders. There is nothing I like about the Raiders. There really isn't, except for the fact that they play for Antonio Pierce. They still come out there and they play sixty two, laying a sixty two burger after they were shut out the previous week.
It's actually a sixty three burger. Please, don't you know?
Get it right, a sixty three burger. As Todd has corrected, me correctly, by the way, sixty three burger after getting shut out against the Vikings sixty three against the Chargers who were not wanting to play for Brandon Staley anymore. May he rest in peace. I'm taking the ten. I love it said. I still have a bet. I have a bet on the Chiefs number one seed to end up the number one seed in the AFC. I still think there's a path where the Chiefs do get to
have the number one seed. I don't think they'll make the Super Bowl, even if they are, because I think they're flawed this year. But ten is too many. This is just a numbers play. The Raiders traditionally give the Chiefs a lot of difficulty, even in the worst of times and the best of times for the Chiefs. So
that totals forty one. It's a low ish total. So if you conflate the score, the spread, and the total, the market is expecting what like a a twenty six to sixteen, a twenty five to fifteen kind of game. I think the Raiders can surpass that. I'm taking the Raiders plus the points is my second pick.
Wilson, Am I getting five or five and a half here with the Ravens.
You, sir, getting You shouldn't You shouldn't have asked. You should have said, what is the line in the Ravens game? Because this way we can trust you guys.
But if I try, but.
We're not trustable. What you should have said, Yeah, it's it's fine.
Baltimore Ravens. I would say the five.
I watched a lot of the forty nine ers Cardinals game. I had some live bets, I had some fantasy implications about to hopefully win a championship this week.
No big deal.
The forty nine Ers did not play good defense last week. The Cardinals for over four hundred and thirty yards of offense, over eight yards per carry, twenty two first downs over six yards per play. It wasn't just garbage time. It was the first drive of the game. Cardinals boom touchdown late in the game. I mean they if it wasn't for a pick six, look, forty Nineers were still gonna win that game. But that was a much closer game than I think the final score.
The Ravens.
There's this trend, and I'm not a huge trending guy, but there's a trend where they play really well against the NFC which makes sense because Lamar in that offense.
It's an odd ball offense. It's hard to prepare for. It's unique.
You get hardball as a dog, you get a good quarterback, you get a great kicker and Tucker. I mean, are the forty Night's the NFL or the forty nine ers are gonna win every game by fourteen plus points. They've won all these games by double digits. I could easily see in this be like a twenty seven to twenty four type of game. I actually thought about taking the over or too, because I think forty nine ers are going to get their thirty plus against pretty much everyone,
and I think Baltimore moved the ball. But I'll take Baltimore plus the five. This is sort of a mini hedge too, if you have some long shot tickets on Brock Party, which we talked about early in the season, Gale, this is a nice way to hedge. You take Baltimore plus five. If San Fran wins this game, this is all on the table for Party to win it, and you can middle it too. You can hit your plus five. You can still hit Party MVP. But Ravens plus five is a pick here.
I like that pick. Except for one thing. I think that Keaton Mitchell injury, which he's out for the year now with a torn acl He to me that was such a like as much as was made about an injury,
I don't think enough was made about an injury. That injury to me for the Ravens rookie running back is the difference to me between them being a legit super Bowl contender and them not Super Bowl winning contender, I should say, because he added like there are so many chunk plays that he makes on a weekly basis that with the exception of Lamar, I don't know who else they go two for that. So that's the only sort of cautionary thing for me on that game. But you know,
I'm not here to caution to make cautionary tales. That's your pick plus five on the Ravens. I like your idea about that being like a hedge on the party thing though, just in case, just in case, would you get pretty at twenty two to one?
Will?
Was that your first two to one week three?
We talked about it on Robbers Games.
Look at you, I haven't I got him sixteen to one? Yeah, Frank, are you?
And on the pretty train we don't worry about McCaffrey right that he's not gonna win.
No, I don't think so.
No, it's a running back running back, it's a quarterback a order. You have voters out there who say I will never vote for a non quarterback.
Yeah, I mean it's just a quarterback.
Ard.
I got a little bit on Purty, not a ton.
I've put so many chips out on everybody that at some point I'm gonna win. Some ticket might as well, like I just keep This race has been crazy.
Though it has gone. Everybody seems to have taken a turn.
I will say the one guy who I really don't have anything on who I think could win as Josh Allen because he's a safe pick. He's I think the Bills are going to win the AFC East just the way the schedules lined up for the Bills and Dolphins, and if the Bills end up coming from behind winning the AFC East, he's going to have forty five to fifty total touchdowns and he's a safe pick. I do think voters are going to get hung up a little bit on are we really voting.
Brock Perty as the MVP? Do you don't want to be the guy who voted.
Gino Torretta as a Heisman Trophy winner, right, Like, you want to make sure that this kind of holds up historically, and I think that they're gonna be a little nervous about voting party.
It's a great point. But here's my counter to that point. And I've said this about why I bet Purty. In the end, it's one, two, three, four and five for these voters. It's not the same as it used to be, where it's one vote for one person, and so you can really win this by getting the most second place votes. And I think that more than anything points to Purty to me because to your point, because I think you're right, Frank, I think there is to be there's fifty voters, I think.
And I've had Aaron Shots on multiple times and he's you know, as a quarterback thing. And you know, last the second last time I had him on, it was a Josh Allen guy. Now he was like a Perty or Prescott thing before Prescott had the bad game. But he agreed with me that like Purdy could get it based on that he'll be everybody's second place aboute if
they don't go with him first. And so which is unlike say Comeback Player of the Year, which is one, two and three, which is a great point that he made, which is in the case of Damar Hamlin whose minus seven hundred as opposed to mine is two hundred on Purty in MVP Damar Hamlin for comeback for something as nebulous as Comeback Player of the Year. He's either your number one or he's not on your ballot at all,
which I think is a fascinating distinction. Right. You either in your brain have him because he came back from almost dying on the field and making one tackle, or you don't value that as a criteria for the award at all, you know. So I think it's I think it's a very interesting. All of these are fascinating markets this year. I don't remember a year where we had this many that are that are so up up in
the air. And I make the point this. I know everybody's got C. J. Stroud as the offensive Rookie the year, but that's why I bring up the puka Akua thing juxtaposed against Stroud, and Will made a great point the other day. So let's say he is you guys, don't hear me. Everybody I hear me. It's only Utah to Todd's like, I don't hear you. If Stroud, let's say so Stroud is unlikely to play this week, Let's say the Texans lose. You only have two games left in
the season. Remember he had he didn't play last week, and he had a bad game against the Jets before that. If they if he somehow doesn't, isn't able to go, and concussions are weird. If he's unable to go in the second the last game, imagine if they lose that and they're knocked out of the playoff picture entirely, well, then Demiko Ryans isn't gonna get Coach of the Year.
And then why would you even bother playing right c J. Stroud the last we could of the season, even if he could go, because concussions, there's nothing more serious than a head injury, and you got to protect your your long term investment. So I guess the point I'm making about offensive Rookie of the Year is just throwing it into all the all those markets being up in the air. Is CJ. Stroud? His mine is ten thousand. But if that dude either doesn't play or played poorly in the
last five games of the season. This over a quarter of the year. And if Puka Akua is setting records, is c J. Stroud still the offensive rookie of the year at that point?
You sound like a guy who might have something to do with Kakua.
No, I do a full disclosure. I do. But but you understand my thinking, right.
I'm just teasing you. I agree with your thinking. I'm just teasing it.
Yeah, No, I know.
It reminds me.
It reminds me.
I don't know if you guys remember. I think it was twenty seventeen the NBA Rookie the year where Embiid was clearly the most dominant rookie but he only played like maybe half the season and Brogden was okay, but he played more, and I think they brog slightly. Is this would be sort of analogous if he does miss the last four games, played poorly in a fifth game, and then it's like, hey, what would you rather have the guy who was pretty good for all the season?
The guy was great for like, you know, three quarters of the season. So it is interesting, and I do have Stroud under I think thirty five hundred passing yards. He's Basically, I think as long as he doesn't play high win. If he throws for like fifty more yards, I lose. So I'm right at the edge there. So hopefully oh Man health.
To keep him out.
Yeah. Embid played thirty one games that rookie year, thirty one and twenty sixteen to seventeen. Uh And as you said, would he average that year twenty point two points a game? Anyway? You know, but they didn't go with him. Okay, who are we on Dodd?
Me? Yeah, by the way, you were saying, like, do you want to be the guy who who bets on Purdy to the one year? Did Nick Foles when he had twenty seven touchdowns and two interceptions? Did he win the MVP that year? I don't think so, right, No he did? No, No, he had that crazy year. So anyways, my second pick, I had the Ravens Circle too. But if Willie's gonna go with them, I'm I'm gonna switch
it up. I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jagoffs and that. No, here's the thing you just have to say, jag you know that's a Pittsburgh work down here. If Yin's gonna give us some trouble. We're saying, hey, stop being a jag off. Okay. Anyways, the Jacksonville Jaguars played the Ravens on the primetime game. I felt the Jaguars. I don't know what you guys thought. I thought the Jaguars could easily won the game. I mean, they literally gave the game away. I believe they were inside the red zone
one hundred times and scored zero points. They certainly played them toe to toe. Now, I've been high on the Jaguars all year, and everybody else has been saying I'm an idiot, and it looks like I have been an idiot. But I mean, I really think they're They're the kind of team that has the ability to play with anyone. I mean, they they should have. They could have easily won that game. There's no doubt they could have beaten
the Ravens in that football game. But because they do stupid things and mess things up, you know, it ruins the game. But now they're going. Now you're getting them against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay just went into Green Bay and played a great game, maybe their best game of the year, winning a game that they probably most people didn't think they were going to win. And now I get the Jaguars in a situation where probably all week they're kicking themselves, going, we should have beaten the Ravens.
We played better than the Ravens, and we gave the game away to the Ravens. Can we just focus in here, guys? Can we get a little focus? And now you're going to Tampa Bay and getting one from the Buccaneers. I mean, I don't think the Jags are just slightly better than the Buccaneers. I think they're much better. And now I get them fully focused, give me the Jag offs plus one.
Yeah, but Todd, just know that Trevor Lawrence also is in concussion protocol right now, so that might inform me.
Is that why the line is so low?
That is correct? Still?
Wait, who's their back up again?
Bethard? Bethard, No, j Bethart.
Yeah, you know what, I might have to change this now? Okay, Frank, I'm going away from the Jaguars to Frank for two and come back by Frank.
Go ahead, second pick.
I like the Minnesota Vikings. I think if you get me to three and a half, it's three or three and a half.
Either one I'm fine with because I think his Vikings team is pretty good.
They're well coached.
I like Kevin O'Connell, and I thought Nickmullens played well last week. He made some mistakes, but it was his first start forever. I think he cleaned some of that up justin Jefferson's a little healthier and a lot of this is just kind of a fade of the Lions.
And I know you've talked about this all season.
Goal really that you've been low on the Lions, lower than consensus, and I've kind of.
Come around to that where this Lions team is good.
I'm not, you know, saying that they're a total fraud or anything, but they're certainly not as good as a record. I don't believe, not as good as a hype. We've seen that for weeks and weeks. The fact that they blasted the Broncos doesn't mean a whole lot to me. I mean, you look at that game and you're like, oh, yeah, that's right. The Broncos stink. They're not really a very good team. Great for the Lions to get right, but I think they go on the road in a tough environment.
Let team.
The loss of the Bears two weeks ago and really got handled by the Bears. So I really like the Vikings getting especially if I can get more in the field goal. Take the Vikings there, I think, and the Vikings know that. You know they're during the wildcard race. But there's also a scenario where the Vikings are playing the Lions.
A week eighteen for the NFC North.
I mean, as crazy as that sounds, because I don't remember who they have Week seventeen, that's an easy game. The Lions have to go play at the Cowboys. The Vikings win Sunday. If the Lions lose to the Cowboys a week seventeen and the Vikings win week teams for the NFC North Championship.
As crazy as that sounds, the Vikings know what's on the line. I'll take the Vikings all day. Three and a half and my third pick I was way before.
You go further, Before you go any further, Frank, what are we giving him on that? Guys?
That's a good question, Nick Mullins, And the Vikings are three. I've had more threes than three and a halfs I have you.
Still wanted Frank at three?
Yeah, I'm fine. I'm fine with three. Obviously you don't love it as much. But by the way, I still think I think they went straight up. I'm not really truly that worried about the three three and a half because I think this Vikings team is live on Sunday.
By the way, to answer your question, Vikings host the Packers next week on Monday.
Night, Packers and they easily win that at home against the Packers.
Packers very up and down.
I know we don't like doubling up, but I was gonna double up anyway because my two picks I was deciding on here with the Ravens and the Dolphins.
I'm gonna go with the Dolphins.
And look, I can't logically tell you why the Cowboys are such a weird home road team, but it's a thing. It's a real thing. Gil, you talked about some of these stats. I'm gonna add on to it a little bit. At home seven old, like you said, plus one seventy one point differential at home, minus four point differential on
the road. Since at least nineteen thirty three, there's been no no team in NFL history sinsiety thirty three to be at least plus one seventy at home and have a negative road differential.
I just you're terrible thirty three, he said, Wow.
At least nineteen thirty the modern era.
I saw that Bobby belt of one of five point three the fan in Dallasy. He had that stat out there. I didn't double check it, but it sounds right. I mean, it's just crazy that they just go on to road and they're a different team.
I don't know why.
I can't explain it, but I do know it's a thing. And for all the reasons you talked about, I just I think that this Miami team is ready to get to first quality win. I still like this team even though they haven't beat anybody.
And I will say this.
Dallas's offense took off when they started funneling everything through CD Lamb, which he absolutely should He's phenomenal. The Dolphins got Jalen Ramsey. It's a tough matchup. I don't think Ceede Lambs was going to cook him one hundred thirty yards in his game. So I think that that part is a little bit of a bad matchup for the Cowboys. Give me the Dolphins. I think they get their first quality win of the year.
And you know what else, Frank, that neither of us mentioned that we probably should have at the top is it's Mike McDaniel versus Mike McCarthy, and I wouldn't be surprised.
You know what, Gil, I do have to say. I think Mike McCarthy is to the point, and I know you're gonna laugh.
That's fine.
You know what I'm gonna say already. He's criminally underrated if you just do applied resume, Tessa. Mike McCarthy, he's good, He's had a great career. He just has a bad pr guy Like I mean, you look at his is I get every reason why people are Don McCarthy and all the stuff, but he's everybody laughed at him. Oh you're taking over the play call and you're gonna stink and they've had one of the best offenses in football. Mike McCarthy just has as an image problem I think.
I yeah, I don't disagree with with the fact that he is probably at this point underrated. I think you're probably right about that because we've hammered him for so many years that we that he probably is underrated. On the other hand, was it recently as two or three weeks ago. He still has those moments man where he does something so dumb, and I just wonder if it's gonna come down to something like that. Well, we'll see,
we'll see. But I think your point as well taken on McCarthy, Todd, you got to do.
Two now, I would say, yeah, I would say he should be held civilly, uh, but not criminally in the in the under civiy civilly we could probably do it.
Did I tell you about my my jury duty last week? By the way, I had jury duty, Todd, and I had I got out of it, by the way. But it was a it was a speaking of civil and criminal it was a sex trafficking case and as well, and as we came in from one of the breaks. This is my like my advice of the United States legal system. The defendants, the the alleged UH committers of this crime were in the atrium downstairs of this big
courthouse in in Las Vegas. And as I'm coming in from the UH from break, the woman it was a duo. It was a guy and a girl who were alleged to have prostituted a young girl and use the proceeds to fuel their lifestyle. And I heard the girl, what's that is?
That frowned upon again?
Now is that what? I'm sorry?
I was making a.
Frown upon? I'm sorry? Is that frownd upon? And she is on the phone as I walk in, swear to guy going going going, that motherfucker got off his case. There ain't no fucking way I'm settling mind. And I thought to myself, I'm like, I probably shouldn't have heard that. Maybe I should go to the judge and sort of say because you could. At that point, I could have gotten off from being like I'm influenced by her, she's very aggressive, or I could have been like, I really
respect her passion, I'm on her side. I could have taken it anyway. That was my since you brought up criminal versus Sibyl, sorry to interrupt.
Well, thank you for the Heald criminal justice system interluded, yes portion of our program. Okay, my second pick, I'm gonna go away from the Jags because of the quarterback situation. Thank you for pointing that out.
You're welcome.
I'm gonna go with the Bay Packers minus the five at Carolina. I think that the Carolina Panthers are still a very very bad team on offense, and you know they did nothing last week to make me think they could. By the way, there's no way they should have even won the game, and it probably shouldn't have even been close, but Desmond Rider did them in. But you know, the Packers have had a little resurgence. Now they have a little you know, bump in the road losing to the Buccaneers.
I don't see why they can't beat the Panthers by five points. It's less than a touchdown. The Panthers can't score, so you know, I like, if you're gonna lay points against the team, it's always good to go against a team that can't score. And I think the Packers will get enough. So give me the Packers minus five, and then for my third, you want me to do my third right away?
Right?
Yeah?
Okay, my third, I was gonna go with with Will's Ravens pick. I like that one also, but I'm going to go with the under in the Texans Browns game. I believe it's forty or forty and a half.
What do you guys have, Texans Browns forty forty forty more forties than forty and a half.
I'm going to go on under forty. The Browns had no business winning that game on Sunday. Let's be honest. You know, that's basically the Bears just handing them the win. They did nothing on offense, I mean absolutely nothing the entire game. Joe Flacco. I still think Walker is better than Flacco. But you know, Joe Flacco throws one or two nice deep balls in the game. He did have that one beautiful throw on the on the last drive,
but he throws some really bad balls. He threw a pick six, another one should have been a pick sick. I mean, he just he's not very good Joe Flacco. There's a reason he was on the street before this season. And I just don't see the Browns being offensively that good. The Texans. Now, who's playing quarterback? Is it Keenum? Is is it Davis Mills? Is it CGT? We have no idea who's even playing. And the brown are a good defensive team, so give me the under forty. Also, they
don't have Tank Dell anymore the Texans. I think he was a big part of that offense, So give me under forty. In that game, I just think the Browns will try whatever they can to just grind it out, ground and pound it the whole game. Say, look, let's not let Flaco beat us with a pick six like he almost did last week, and let's just get out of here seventeen fourteen somehow and give me one hundred and forty in the grounds.
It should be Keith Ketem a case Keenum as far as we know right now, if CJ. Stroud is unable to go, and this is a game, the Browns Texans game is really like both teams sort of had luckbox wins. The Browns probably shouldn't have been in that position, because you're right, the Bears offense didn't do anything, but like that Flacco to Cooper game tying touchdown pass, I don't know how that got through. And then the Texans was the most luck boxy win of them all, where Keenom
somehow got them that final drive. So it should be an interesting game. Todd going under on the forty, Really, what you got?
I'm gonna lay it with the Eagles. I think we're looking at what eleven and a half twelve? I'm okay laying in the twelve year Wow.
Yeah, I just.
Think this is a spot where they get back on track. The weakness for the Eagles as we've seen it is their secondary. Tommy Devido in the gang is not going to really exploit that. Philly has a good front four, a good pass rush. The Giants are not good up front. I just feel like this is one where the Philly gets a lead, they're feeling good. It's a you know, it's a it's a standalone game here. The crowd is going to be into it. They sort of need this game.
So you worry when you're laying double digits, Hey, is this team going to be focused? Are they gonna be motivated when you've.
Lost three in a row.
They're gonna be focused. They're gonna be motivated. They're gonna play a full sixty minutes here. So I could easily see this game being, you know, thirty one to ten, thirty four to ten, something like that.
So I'm not afraid to lay it here with the Eagles.
I know there's this I think you call it too cool for school crowd gil where it's like, oh, you can't lay double digit the NFL if you go back to last I think it's like ten years, which is a decent sample size here in the NFL, double digit favorites take you're better off laying it and taking it. Yeah, those against you know what kind of what we thought. You know, we've always heard in terms of conventional wisdom, where you can't can't lay the DOUBLEJNFL.
So I think the Eagles role here. I think they get back on track. Eagles minus the twelve.
We should point out because of Christmas, this is a funky week right. There's the Thursday night game tonight between the Saints and the Rams. Then we have two Saturday games the Bengals, Steelers and the Bills Chargers. Then we have six early Sunday games December twenty fourth, three afternoon games and then the Sunday night game, and then three on Monday, Christmas Day Raiders, Chiefs, Giants, Eagles, Ravens, Niners to close the weekend. Man great, Okay, I hate my
third pick, but I have to make it. I think the Broncos are given too many points against the Patriots. I can't believe I'm taking the Patriots, but I'm gonna take the six and a half with the New England Patriots. The total is thirty four. So again, let's do the let's do the score total conflation.
Twenty fourteen, what is it? Twenty to fourteen.
Twenty to fourteen, correct something like that. I think the Patriots can keep it within six against this six and a half rather with this Broncos team. I don't love the Patriots. I don't like anything that they were doing, but they did show a pulse here recently, and I think the Broncos again are sort of criminally. I don't know what it is. Like that was one of the ones we got totally right last week. Like the love
for the Broncos was so over the top anecdotally. It wasn't necessarily in the market because it bounced back and forth in the market all week against the Lions. But like I was all about the Lions. I think the Broncos were plus twelve and turnovers in the last four of that five game winning streak. They had just beaten easton Stick and the Chargers, and people are like, people want to make Sean Payton and the Broncos into something.
And by the way, they may yet make the playoffs because their last three games are very easy, and they ought to win this game against the Patriots. But six and a half, I will take it, Bill Belichick going up against Sean Payton, Give me the six and a half on the Pats, and I will not enjoy that whole experience taking the six and a half, but I will nonetheless take them all right, Which brings us to our teaser of the week, Frank, what's your favorite two team six point teaser of the week, Sir, I.
Didn't love a whole lot. I can't lie.
I looked at this one the longest out of everything. Just going to kind of be a little boring here and take a couple NFC North teams. I'll go with the Packers and the Bears. Packers for all the reasons Todd talked about the Panthers still stink like I was on the Falcons too, like all of us were at last week, and the Panthers didn't really win that game. The Falcons just gave it away because Arthur Smith. So
I just don't see the Panthers winning this game. I don't think the Packers are very good, but they could beat the Panthers, okay, and then the Bears. It's a weird comparison between the lines. Where they were only plus three at the Browns, they're only minus four against the Cardinals at home. Tell me that there's a way if you're giving two points for home field advantage. There's only a three point difference on a neutral field between the Browns and the Cardinals.
Like that, that doesn't make sense to me. I thought this line was too low.
I think the Bears win this game against the Cardinals team that's not exactly going to be happy to be playing in the cold, in the rain in Chicago. So I think Packers Bears get him under a field goal. I'm fine with that teaser.
This is I think this is going to be going to be one of the rare teaser weeks where all of us have a different one. Todd, what's yours?
Yeah, the teasers were very difficult to find this week. I'm going to go with the Titans up to eight and a half. You know, I don't like the Titans, but you know, somehow they usually play close games. They found a way even to beat Miami in that crazy game down fourteen late. I'm not a big fan of the Seahawks, whether you have Gino Smith or Drew Locker, whoever plays quarterback over there.
Gina was a full practice yesterday, by the way.
Yeah, even with Gino, I don't don't think the Seahawks are that great that they're going to go in and blow out the Titans. So I think the Titans and also the Titans, you know, they tend to play these you know, lower scoring games in the sense that you know, they run the ball a lot and they try to you know, protect the quarterback. So give me the Titans plus the eight and a half and then give me the Bronx to win the game minus a half against
the Patriots. You know, I mean, the Patriots are what they are, what the Patriots are what we thought they are. They are a team with no quarterback. And now I don't like the Broncos, but at home, you know, I don't think they should have a problem beating the Patriots. So just give me the Broncos minus half.
As the other side, way, Will Levis did not practice yesterday, we might see the return of Ryan Tannehill that game between.
Them, I'd rather have Ryan. I'd rather have Ryan Tannehil.
Yeah. By the way, they just put up some on those TV screens here at the d and we were just talking about the Patriots there they put up somebody. Are the Patriots trying to set up a bidding war for Bill Belichick? Do you think teams would get in a bidding war for Bill Belichick.
I don't it's I don't think the mechanics of it work because he's all, what are the Patriots?
What are the Patriots gonna do?
Or are they gonna say, Yeah, Bill, we're firing you, But we're not really firing. You're going to keep you until there's a trade and then we're going to hire our new coach. Well, you're still on our He makes a lot of money, like Robertcraft, still gonna be paying him every day he's there. I don't think the mechanics work that well, but I could see it the Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick is going to be the Chargers coach, right, Like.
I would love to see, just as a football fan, I would like to see, like Brady had his moment post Belichick. I would like to see Belichick, you know, with a good team, a good coach. Him and Herbert would make like I'm rooting for that.
I want to see that happen.
I would specifically the Chargers, I would like to see, yeah, because that would be Yeah, that would be wonderful to see because if it doesn't go well, it does a couple things. Brandon Staley ain't that bad? Then if Bill Belichick can't do anything with it. And also, Bill Belichick ultimately wasn't the coach we thought he was. I'm sorry, he just wasn't all come on as great as as
great as he was. No, he's still a first ballot Hall of Famer, don't get me wrong, But there has to be a sentence at the end of everybody talking about Bill Belichick of yeah, but when he didn't have Grady, he kind of sucked because if he can't win with Justin Herbert, that set that phrase has to exist.
Where it you know, but you know, wels can't win with Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert can't win with Justin Herbert? Are we Justin Herbert's the most overrated player in the NFL A right, you think?
So, like, what's he done? What's he done?
He hasn't done.
He had a nice week last week though, even though he didn't play. That was his best week because you saw what that.
Team mark about it, because he saw that's right exactly.
I like Justin Herbert.
I think he's good, but we've just given him a pass since his rookie year of like, oh yeah, he's a late never mind that he never comes through in the fourth quarter, ever, and we judge every other quarterback that way. Justin, Justin Herbert has just been on scholarships since his rookie year. He doesn't look at his Everybody else gets judged by the record. Why doesn't Justin Herbert Like it's if Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are looking at that guy, like, why do we get that pass?
Why don't we get that treatment?
Anyway, that's why.
No, it's a good point. Justin Herbert's career record. Justin Herbert's career record thirty two is thirty and thirty three. It's nice to compare it to Tua's because they were drafted right next to each other. Tua's career record is thirty one and seventeen. By comparison.
On the cholarship man, you got a big arm. You can throw the ball a lot, not to anybody in the fourth quarter, but he's got a big arm.
Say what you're saying? Will what'd you say? They I play on different teas. I mean that's Hill and Waddle. I mean if you give Herbert and I think, look Herbert, that talent gets overrated, Like, oh, Eckler's this great player.
Eckler.
I don't think he's ever had a thousand yard Russian season. He's always hurt.
He now is always hurt. They're not good on defense. Who's the other receiver? Williams is always hurt? I just I think Herbert's talent has been over raet to.
I don't know. I mean, the thing is Turbert has had talent, though, right, Keenan Allen is as good as it gets, I don't know.
I mean, no, as good as it gets as a receiver in the end, like you think he's as good as Hill.
No, okay, maybe not as good as it gets. But like we shouldn't be knocking let's we shouldn't be knocking the talent around him he's got. He has. He has plenty more talent than a lot of teams have around him, for sure, Oh I do. Like, I mean, how many teams have as much receiver talent as he has? Over like to have a guy like Keenan Allen weekend and week out, to have a Mike Williams, to have you know, Uhler, well,
you know they do have injuries. But I guess listen, what it speaks to is a point about football itself, which is football is the hardest sport to make these kinds of judgments about, right, because there are different coordinators, there are different systems, and there's different levels of tent line, and the offensive line is is gigantic, which is why I go back to the coaching point, which to me is a cleaner comparison. Again, they'll get all my soapbox.
But if you've got a coach winning three Super Bowls with three mediocre quarterbacks back in the day, like a Joe Jackson Gibbs, and then you got a Belichick who's had Tom Brady the goat for all these years, but then when Tom Brady disappears, all of a sudden, you suck.
He was kind of bad with Tom Brady at the end.
I'm just saying like, at some point, you do have to have a phrase at the end. Again, people go to the opposite, Oh Gil said Bill Beljake's up. No, I'm not first ballot Hall of Famer because he did what he did, But you do have to have that sentence at the end for me. For me, one man's opinion.
By the way, can you wear a hoodie in the dome? Though? That's the question. If he goes to San Diego and now he's in that hot weather. You can't wear a hoodie in there.
No, it's an excellent point, Hut.
As always, that would be a big problem because I think he believe he has to wear the hoodie. What does he wear? He always wears the hoodie, doesn't he He does?
He didn't used to though many many years ago. Right, he's just where your Cleveland Brown's and your Patriots thing. And then once he got to the hoodie, never let it go? Will what is your teaser?
I will go Steelers.
That's just a lot of points in the Steelers Bengals game, Browning on the road. I know we've been impressed with Browning, but the Bengals don't have Chase, they.
Don't have Reader.
I'll take the Steelers and I'll throw it with the Titans. I would expect this, you know, Seattle Tennessee game to be close. Seattle on the road is a different team short rest. So I will go Titans and I will go Steelers in that.
I am in that. I am gonna go the Indianapolis Colts. Give me seven with them against the Falcons. I'll take Gardner Minshew and the Colts getting all those points on the road against the Falcons and Taylor Henekey, and I'll pair the Colts with the Minnesota Vikings. These are not wongers, ladies and gentlemen. It is not a want to tell ye, well, good luck for fez finding any wongs? Are there any wongs? Are there any wongs this week? Yeah, there's a couple, but.
That's you're gonna be in big trouble, Gilly.
I don't even see one wong, do you well?
If you went Bengals and the ones we did Bengals, Oh.
Yeah, there's a few, you're right, Yeah, No, I'm not doing those. I'm going Colts and Vikings. Coltson Vikings for me, all right? Which brings us to our final two questions of each and every megapod. First one, which of the big favorites in your opinion is the most likely to lose? Outright? Your choices are on Saturday, a game we have not even mentioned. The Bills eleven and a half twelve point favorites on the road against the Charge the East and
stick led Los Angeles Chargers. That is choice number one? Good God? Is that the only choice?
Then?
I got to throw in the couple games on Monday the Chiefs are ten point favorites at home against the Raiders, and the Eagles thirteen or twelve and a half somewhere in there. What do we end up giving will for that one? Todd?
You know, he said twelve and a half, and I think there's enough twelve and all the book mayors thirteen. But twelve and a half. I think we can give them.
Twelve and a half, yeah, for sure. And then the Eagles twelve and a half point favorites at home against the Giants. So Bills, your choices again are Bills, Chiefs, Eagles. One of them will lose. If one of them loses, who is it?
Frank, I don't really believe this, but I'll make a case against the Bills, because look, they're coming off of this stretch. Their last three games have been at Philly, at Kansas City versus Dallas. They're gonna look at this as a breather. Oh good, this is easy part of our schedule. We get to walk this week. So I think that this is a little bit of a letdown spot for them. And we've seen teams fire their coach and have a dead cat bounce right like we've seen, You're gonna play harder.
We saw it the Raiders.
Maybe the Chargers didn't like Brandon Staley. It certainly didn't seem like they liked them when they were giving up sixty three points and getting them fired the other day. So maybe we see a little bit of an effort out of the Chargers, a little bit of a letdown from the Bills, and this game is closer than we think. Do I really truly believe the Chargers are beating the Bills?
No?
But of these three, that's easily the one that I.
Thought, you say, But you asked the damn questioned Gil, So I had to answer, By the way, a dead cat bounce in a in an age of political correctness, how has that lasted dead cat bounce?
What it has to do with a cat bouncing when it falls from a high thing, is what's correct?
The cat that jumped, it's not me. I didn't do it.
I'm not I'm not the ones to criticize it. I'm just saying dead.
But what's the political part?
Well, the dead part? Right?
Yeah?
Does the cat live after the bounce?
Is a cat alive when it's bounce?
I don't know, but I don't think anybody's in favor or not in.
Favor, cat bro, Let me tell you something. When I called a soccer you know, these big soccer tournaments, these global soccer tournaments, and I called one of them the group of Death. I was told we don't say that anymore. And I said, who am I offending the dead? And they were like, well, yeah, so believe me. These policemen are all over the place for all this stuff. Anyway, I'm not making the case. I'm just pointing out, good God, Todd,
Tod Wish, nev surprise, we haven't Todd Wish. You know what I love about most about you, Todd, is when you get surprisingly serious at any given moment. That's really my favorite aspect of you. It's my favorite thing of all my Todd Wish to have favorite things. It's when you all of a sudden surprisingly get serious.
Understand what the political correctness feature of that discussion is.
Sorry, I got your political correctness right here. All right, I'm uh, Todd, what is yours? Of those three? What's the most likely to lose? Act?
I'm going to pass that. I'll take the raiders to beat the chiefs too. You know the chiefs they like to throw the voter guys who dropped the ball, and in National Football League that's typically not the best thing in the world. So they could lose to anyone. You know that they lost to the bron because they lost the you know, Chiefs could lose.
That's mine too, Will.
Chargers, I could see keeping it close, actually winning.
I guess I'll go with it, just because, like Frank said, the spot Chargers were humiliated. Figure, they show some pride, Bills, right, they save their season against the Chiefs.
They beat up on the Cowboys.
You where they catch their breath here they you know, they're a little laxic, daisical, and the Chargers hang around. So I guess I'll just say Bills. Although I don't believe it, I will say this. There will probably be a lot of three team ten point teasers.
Oh yeah, Bills, Bills.
Chiefs, and Eagles all standalone games. You get them all under a field goal. And I can't really say I disagree with it.
But the Chargers have no talent, Will how could they possibly win that game?
I I apologize Austin Eckleer, who's never had a thousand yard season. Obviously, you know the next uh, one of the great running backs Walt time. I do think their their talent's a little overrated. My hot take is their uniforms are so cool that we're all visual people, they are better.
Maybe that could be. I think the Eagles.
The Eagles are not the I think they are what we thought they were. Everyone was saying how lucky they are they even against Seattle. I mean, he doesn't have a ton of time to throw. They're not averaging you yards per play anymore. There's something wrong over there and Hurt. This doesn't look to me like he's one hundred percent. He looks a little scuffed up a bit. I think the Eagles are in big trouble.
The Eagles the franchise that won their Super Bowl with replay rules from the future that didn't exist that previous You know that that whole season. Never forget by the way, the Eagles, I think were great last year. That was their year, and I feel like they've luckboxed into this record this year because with those three losses that they've just had, they could have easily had two of them.
They could have easily had multiple other losses. The two games against the Commodores, they could have lost either of those, if not both. Uh, the game against the cow the first game against the Cowboys. They should have lost the game against Buffalo, they absolutely should have lost it. Y're right, will the very first game of the season, right, we forget about that where they relied on Yeah, so I want to turn.
Do we think they'll call the fall correctly? Called the fall start in Philly against Kelsey on those.
Yeah, don't so. I'm so. I was so angry. I had an Eagles team total over thirteen and a half first half. I also had Eagles to win the second quarter. They at third and one at the five yard line. They can run the tuas push fourteen times in a row, never have a problem, and the one time I need them to just punch it in and I win both beats. They call a foal star. But he that played it even the guys didn't even line up yet, No one was lined up yet. Oh he moved the ball. He
didn't move the ball. Watch the replays. Bullshit. That was the worst call I've ever seen in my goddamn life. Okay, that was unbelievable. What happened to me with that? With that ridiculous good I pushed it?
What happened to me? What happened to me, by the way, Todd, I took that same stance on guessing lines on Monday. But somebody told me there was some there was some other angle that I did not see, where like he clearly moved the ball.
Afoot Oh and when did they ever call it?
Ever?
Ever? Ever?
Well, they said that they hadn't been warning Kelsey about this, so I don't know, I don't know.
Yeah, they were warning Kelsey and they got a call down. Wish nev has over thirteen and a half first half theam total right, Can you do us a favor and call it on Kelsey right now? Because that's what happened.
Well, because what then when what it really means is what do you mean you didn't call it all those other times that he did it? That's the real crime, right if that's if that's the case.
Sorry brought it up. I didn't know you had a bet on it.
That was the thing about the Kadarius Tony thing. Right, Like when Orlobski came on ESPN the next day, is like, wait, but he was off sides the other three times that game. Why didn't they call it? Then? You know? Why did they choose to call it when they called it.
By the way, ways before the play even started. Can't you just say, hey, move it back. It's one thing if he like does it like when Okay, everyone's lined up now he moved.
On, But it's not the referees obligation to tell the player to move it back.
I mean, it's that's so that is just Todd Todd.
Since you said took his bush? Can we do equal time? I want you favorite Christmas song and will you sing it please?
I don't really, I mean my favorite is actually I would typically go with UH with Kelly Bidlin, but I did have somebody in my WhatsApp group asked me to sing, you know, my favorite injured Christmas song, and that is Uh's better watch at Yan's better, not cry like a Cleveland Briani Fanin's better or not? Because I'm telling youons why saying of Claus is coming down time, coming down time, then clauses coming down.
Pine and at That's great. That was wonderful. By the way, I also think Kansas City would be the team most likely lose to the Raiders and at that's the best. All right, final question. We live in a bizarre world. Sixteen NFL games Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. You must play aside on each and every one of them, but you get one free pass, Frank Schwab one that you want no part of. What's the game you want no part of?
I'm so glad I go first here because I can't be the only one picking the Commander's Jets.
Right.
Can you imagine, say, can we all just are there odds that we're all going to pick the same game?
Yeah? Right?
Like, can you imagine being a Jets season ticket holder?
It is Christmas Eve, It's probably gonna be like forty one degrees in raining. You're gonna spend like one hundred dollars for parking to go watch the Commanders and the Jets. Like, I'm just selling your family on that. Like, hey, guys, I know it's Christmas Eve, but I gotta go watch the Commanders and the Jets today.
I'm sorry.
Like that might be the most miserable Well, if Falcons Panthers didn't happened last week, this might be the most miserable football game of many many years.
That I mean, that's that's that's definitely a good one. I mean, you know the Jets are going to play defense. The commanders are going to play no defense.
It's totally my game, commander's jets. I agree with Frank, that's mine.
Also, it's a very difficult game too. But you know what, here's the thing, Frank, it's an NFL game, and we will watch any NFL game ever, I in any scenario, it doesn't matter. If somebody dies on the field, we'll scrape him off and we'll bring another guy. Now, I'm not saying that's right. I'm just saying, let's be honest, we are as hooked to this NFL crap as you could possibly be hooked to as a country's.
Look at that.
I mean the NBA.
The NBA has five great matchups on Christmas, and we're all going to watch Raiders, Chiefs, and Giants, no question.
No question.
Whatever.
It's also like watchable. That sport's not watchable that that that is ridiculous sport.
It's like when there's college but first of all college bowl games, I mean two years ago, right, two years ago, I remember betting like every college bowl game the first day, pre flop all of them, like going crazy. College bowl games are now only in game betable at this point. And but yeah, but yeah, like Old Dominion in Western Kentucky,
which we all made out well on. But it's but it's it's one of those things where there's if there's five college football bowl games and there's nothing else, I'll watch them. But against an NFL slate, not a chance I'll even pay attention. I really won't. No matter what the game tonight Saints Rams, Like, who would watch any other sport of the equivalent kind of teams? Like, what's that tonight in the NBA? What's the Saints Rams game?
Equivalent in the NBA standings? You watching that? What is that? Well, let's say it would be the the I'm trying to think of like comparable five hundred teams. That's the Brooklyn Nets.
Yeah, like the Nicks and the Nets or something.
The Nets taking on the uh, the Rockets tonight. Yeah, sure everybody's watching that anyway, DoD what did you What was your choice? Dad?
I'm going on with Frank. I like what Frank said.
I'm I'm with Frank will for four of us.
Yeah, Noah, I mean that's obviously one that I want nothing to do with, but just to be different because it's it's fascinating.
Maybe the game of the week, it probably is.
I have no feel for for Cowboys Dolphins whatsoever.
I think a lot of people would answer it wins by ten.
I wouldn't be surprised.
They're just they're so hard to figure because they're just so good when they're punching below their weight, but when they find somebody as good as them, they struggle.
So that's one as great as a game it is. I don't'm not crazy about batting that one.
That's a great point. I think there's a lot of people that probably feel the way you do about that, which and you make a good point like, would any outcome surprise you Dallas blowout, Dallas close win, Miami close win, Miami blowout. I'm not sure any would. It's all I don't think so. Yeah, it's all very possible, gentlemen. Merry Christmas to you all, holiday cheer whatever you christ didn't say to each other? Happy Birthday? No, Merry Christmas. I
love Christmas. We just did our top five Christmas songs. Everybody, have a safe Christmas. Hey Todd, did you catch Mike Palms a Christmas speech this year? Did you catch it?
No? No, I kind of I missed that one. Yeah, I missed it.
As wonderful as ever. As wonderful as ever. Frank Schwab from Yahoo Sports, Thank you, Frank. Great seeing you, and again sorry about the whole Week eighteen stuff.
Graduated up the week sixteen. Maybe next year I can get into November at some point.
It'd be awesome.
Well that's not it's not get crazy, Frank, I'm kidding.
Absolutely appreciate you guys. It was a lot of fun.
Thank you, Thank you so much for spending the time. Todd wish Nev and Will Hill wish Nev the Showtime docuseriies action that you can follow him at t wish Nev w t wishv.
And by the way, I realized that I can put more than two hundred and fifty six people in my WhatsApp group. Oh so if you want to be in the college basketball WhatsApp group, that's been doing pretty well before Tuesday night when I got crushed. But you can just you know, ask me over.
There, okay, at t wish nev and then Will Hill at not V Will Hill to Ease on the V. He's also on the bear Bets podcast with Chris FeliCa. What's the Golden Boys what's that stuff? Gold Boys Discord, gold Boys Discord, Frank, what's your what's your your? Twitter at Yahoo Schwab at Yahoo schwab. All right. Beating the Book podcast for Week sixteen. Good luck with all your bets in the National Football League.