Beating The Book: 2023 Week 13 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Thursday morning, November thirtieth, twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book Podcast megapod for week number thirteen in the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander live from Bark, Canada at the D.

Where we've been recording all of our shows this year.

Can't wait to introduce our guest this week, an annual guest these days upon whose shoulders? This podcast, in part was built first Welcome to our pillars though from.

His mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Todd wish nev. What's hattening?

DoD Oh, I'm in a great mood.

Vanderbilt plus sixteen and the guy files with three seconds left, down sixteen.

I'm excited.

Would you like to get that out of your system first? So describe it to everybody?

What happened? You had? Go ahead?

I have Vanderbilt plus sixteen and a half. They're down eleven with one forty to go. They're down sixteen with twenty seven seconds left. The other team, but Boston College is doing the dribble out. We've all seen the dribble out, right. I know what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to just dribble it out. Dribble it out, and then they

Then I lose.

Now give me a break. That's not supposed to happen, have you? I mean, these kids went to eight hundred AAU games. They don't know what a dribble out is.

Come on, never, I've never heard you angry about any bet, angrier about any bet that you've ever made.

It'sfuriating.

All right, he's a guy out of your system. They're good. We're good.

Now we can move on and from his lair where he does the Bare Bets pod with Chris Phalika, both college and pro versions and this megapod. You can follow him on Twitter at not v will hill By the way, you can follow Todd at t wishnev.

It's Wilson Hillson. How you doing, Will?

Boys? What's going on? I'm good?

I feel like we say it every other couple of weeks, But man, we get to flip the calendar to December. Here, in my goodness, where does the time go. It feels like we're just sitting here end of August, Aly September eyed, bushy tailed, and now the season is just you know, a few weeks left, so man, it goes quickly.

Two thirds of the NFL regular season behind us. It's incredible.

I mentioned, I mentioned at the beginning this podcast was built in part upon this man's shoulders.

We are.

We're happy to have him on once a year here on the show for an annual appearance. Love having him still in the uh in the rotation. Ladies and gentlemen. You know him by many names, Johnny, the Greek Vegas runner, Ace, how you doing, what's happening?

Yeah?

Please stop dead naming me and being violent towards me. Just you gotta remember it gets twenty twenty three. You gotta be politically correct.

I'm just kidding. But with that added the way, I'm glad.

To be on and your timing could not be any better, honestly, Gil, because I'm red hot right now.

Like you know how during the year, sometimes you're hot, sometimes you're cold. It just happens. Where right now, anything I'm touching is going good.

Like actually got into stock two nights ago and I woke up today and he gapped.

Up over fifty percent overnight.

Like things are just happening where I'm like, I need to go downstairs and play Megabucks sometime today because I just can't do no wrong.

So I think the timing is good coming on.

What stock was it?

If I might ask VFS, then Fast Motors, it's the Vietnammese EV Company, okay, which is he's like the richest guy in Vietnam and he created his own EV company.

And yeah, I got into like five dollars in this morning.

I five eighty and I looked up this morning it was gapped up to like eleven dollars.

Man sins, we're talking about that.

Let me just have a CNBC moment before I move on to football, which is I was saying this on a numbers game this morning, and Todd has a background in this industry. And I'm curious because Mark Cuban just sold fifty seven percent of the Mavericks for two billion dollars at a valuation of three point five billion, And my first reaction was, Wow, Skins got sold for six point oh five. They're one of the most valuable franchise in sports. Three point five million a billion pardon before

Yeah?

I mean, of course, I mean, everyone knows that the market historically is going to go up about ten percent a year over the last you know, ninety years or so, and and the you know, in the world of compounding obviously, you know, works for you when you when you're dealing

I don't remember exactly when that was.

But there's going to be a point where they've pushed it too far with the sports stuff, and it's going to be and then you'll you'll you'll see, you know, it like any other thing, even even charts that trending up, they have downswings too, you know, And I feel like we're just at we're closer to a top than a bottom on you know, I mean, the Mavericks selling for you know, evaluation three point five bill. I mean, that's just that sounds a little crazy.

A little lot of me too, for sure, Okay, disagreeate, you disagree.

So fun It's all these valuations are based over the last decade of free money. We had a zero interest rate for the last decade, and all they did is print money. All these valuations are just the reflection of that printed money.

It's not reflection of the value of the company.

As soon as.

We run into where we could no longer pay our debt, that we're going to find out what these companies are truly worth.

You agree, but surely.

So you're saying you agree with me that the three point five billion for the Mavericks is a little crazy.

One percent.

It's it's warranted in today's world, But I think we're a few years away from realizing just how fake of a sale that was.

It's all these valuations are ridiculous.

It's also Nvidia Tesla, It's just ridiculous.

Yeah, Peter actually said what you said too, which is it is backloaded, like he thinks.

That the spirt, that the the uh.

The jump in the valuation is probably backloaded to the last ten years. He did say that as well. Okay, Tom Todd Court stenographer, Please, I had my second bad week of the year.

Let's hear it. What happened?

Yes, Well, first of all, I apologize to the listeners when I couldn't write in week eleven because I had the injection on my elbow. I forgot to include those records and the records and somebody pointed that out.

So I've got it all fixed up correctly now.

So I appreciate whoever with that guy on Twitter who pointed out Anyways, the point is Gilly had an two and one, which is so ungilly, like mister eighteen in one or whatever ridiculous run. He was on there for a while, and I said it's going to come to an end sooner or later, and it did come to an end. He was fortunate with the Eagles minus three to even get out.

With a push.

By the way, before I go any further, I will say my best in game bet of my season, maybe of my last five seasons of my life, was as the Bills are driving down inside the twenty of the Eagles, they're down by four, as we know they were losing by four, and and I look at the book, it says overtime plus nine hundred. I'm like, overtime plus nine hundred, Oh yeah, what happens when they get a touchdown and the Eagles come down and kick a field goal? That's

Up a hold on let me, I don't know if you explained it well, but if you missed what Todd said as the Bills were coming down to take the go ahead touchdown, which would have put them three up, and then the Eagles would have had the chance to tie it up, which is exactly what happened. It took a fifty nine yard or through the rain to do so. But yes, nine to one. And what it speaks to for me is is you're not in Nevada and you're

In Nevada or more that we might have.

But the third quarter bets, right, the Dolphins are getting the ball first against the Jets.

They're minus two and a half. Thank you very much, I'll take that like that.

That is, I so am envious of what you guys have available to you that we don't. And so again just that it's our PSA for in game betting. Man, if you're in a state that's not Nevada, so many opportunities that are better than any pre flop bet you could ever make.

Sorry, that's why I think we should get an RV and we should. We should drive down to just past the Hoover Dam. There's an exit right there that you could sit on the side of the road, which I've done before when I was in say two, You can get all the.

Arizona betting things.

All we have to do is whoever whatever that county is, are we allowed to have like a TV on the side of the road there and have people's cars lined up.

We charge everybody like fifty bucks or something.

That would be a great business, you know, for for somebody, for those Vegas people who want to like, it's only thirty minutes, it's.

Not that far thirty Hoover Dam.

Yeah, there's nothing there. The problem is there's literally nothing there. Well, it's literally the desert.

It's it's so funny too, because you are you are driving to one of America's, if not America's finest engineering feat the Hoover Dam.

So as you drive there, like someone.

That are you here for the Hoover the glory of the Hoover Dam, And I'm like, no, I'm just here to make a bet, buddy. I'm just going to cross the day and just plant my car in this little cove in the wall and in the mountain, and I'm gonna make a bet. We've all done it that I did it for like some fan Dual World Series MVP bets, not this year but last year. But the other part of your Nevada sensibility also is the one thing you can say about Nevada is MGM and Caesars will take

Right, So there's that too. Anyway, Sorry, go ahead with the snogral.

Okay, So anyways, the records Gilly Fowls from twenty three and ten, the twenty three, twelve and one will had a one and two really last week, he goes to eighteen and eighteen. Oh, by the way, both of you are seven and five on teasers. We lost the teasers with the Lions, so you're both seven and five on teasers.

I go one and two.

Also, my Jags won in my Kansas City Under lost and my Overbears loss. So I'm I am now eighteen sixteen and two and I am leading in teasers at eight and four, and then the guest spot. Ace is gonna have to hold up the guest spot. It went one and two. They're twenty fourteen and two, still very solid, and also seven and five.

In the teasers.

So that's where we are going into week thirteen.

Okay, so I basically I sucked with you guys barely made it a betty ground, is what happened.

We had a bad week all around.

But I will say this, though I knew and I said this on last week's show, I had a bad feeling about that week. I didn't like anything that was Thanksgiving.

Was the to me, was the worst slate of games in terms of a betting slate that I remember at having all year. I feel completely different about it this week, which we'll get into here are three reasons. Zen is America's number one nicotine pount.

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Before we get into our best bets, lasting, does anybody maybe this is one of your best bets? I don't know anybody have a play on anything in tonight's Thursday night football game where the Cowboys are nine point favorites hosting the Seahawks, the totals forty seven and a half. Is it anybody? Is it anybody one of their three best bets?

I'm gonna make it one of my bets.

Ace.

Yes, So first.

Yes, sir, I'm a on the Seattle side.

I think this is a great spot where I'm pretty confident in it that I'm betting more points than I should and that's the best I could ever ask for. Again, I can't decide how it's going to come out, how they're going to turn out the game. I mean, whether there's calls, whether whatever happens. There's a lot of randomness in Bob. But what I do know is that I do believe that this line's inflated. There's a lot of

Already sold the books. Throw in the teaser protection. They bumped that.

One up immediately through that key numbers, so he can't tease it down with that six point teaser. To me, just every signal that I look for pretty much earmph, and now it's just we'll Seattle'll be able to keep it close if they're able to get it done, and I think they are. You know, they're top ten defense when top ten offense. Excuse me, when you adjust FIRS strength the schedule in their passing success rate, which is enough to put.

Some points up on this tough Dallas defense.

I think Seattle's got a good, decent enough defense not to allow Dallas to put up forty plus on them.

I like Seattle plus the points hoping to be able to get ten.

I don't think I'll need it, but that's pretty much just what I've been sitting back at to see if I could get the ten.

All right, when I'm going to jump it nine and a half anyway?

Is it nine and a half now or nine? What do we got? Nine and a half?

Half?

Nine and a half?

All right?

Nine and a half.

Okay, Todd, I can hear you. This is gonna be one of your best bets to this game, Todd.

Unfortunately I have two plus nine and a half.

Oh wow, I would I guess that? Okay?

I look, I said last week, what is Dallas going to just win every single game by a million points?

I mean, what league is this?

I've never heard of a league where you can a National Football league where you just every single week, nothing bad happens and you just win by a million points. I mean, it just doesn't happen. And it was actually on thinks it looked like it wasn't gonna happen on Thanksgiving when Washington was hanging there at fourteen ten and then you know, the roof caved in on him. But you know, typically when I make these kind of pronouncements like you can't win in the NFL by one hundred

In saying that.

You know, but come on, you can't win every single game in the NFL by twenty five points. It's just not normal. And so and who are they being? Washington, Carolina, the Giants. Okay, the Rams was good. I'll give him that. But still, I've watched the National Football League long enough. You know, Seattle. I don't like Seattle. I can't stand Seattle. But nine and a half points? Are you freaking kidding?

But I think it's a good bet.

Hey, Todd, did you watch the Vanderbilt game last night? But any Chane, Yeah, let me.

Tell you what happened. They were down eleven.

Will anything on this game?

I'm going opo here. I will lay it with Dallas.

Wow, they are custom built to just beat up on these mediocre teams. I do think Seattle's a mediocre team. I don't like their secondary. It's sort of a young and experienced secondary. They've been getting carved up here San Francisco. They toyed with them last week. They could have named their score. They really took the foot off the gas in the second half. And Seattle is hell bent on running the ball. Even last week when they're down two

And I just don't know it. Is Gino healthy?

Is Gino capable of fighting back here and getting the garbage touchdown, which you always worry about laying a big number. But I'll plug my nose here. I'll lay the points here with Dallas. I just think they're such a front runner, is such a bully that I think they're good for this number.

Okay, I don't think we've had a time this year where three out of the four of us had a play on the Thursday night game. And if I had to guess, if you had told me that in advance that three of the four of us were going to have a play, I would have thought it one of them would have been on the total primetime unders this year, by the way, twenty seven and excuse me, pardon me,

The Island games too, like the London games, all go under, so that does encounter as a primetime game, but that's still like a standalone game. So if you if you factor in the standalone games, the one games even more, even tho, those.

Are unders, if I played anything here would be the under on this. But I'm not touching it all right, but those are so to me, even.

Though it's that high gilt, even though the lines the totals moving up and they threw that high of.

A total with the trend being so under heavy.

I'll tell you why. I think it's it's under to me. I think that the.

Seat, like if you look at the Analys excites about the Seahawks defense. I think they're underrated because they sucked early and now they've got like Leonard Williams, and they got guys back that are healthier now, obviously Jamal Adams being one of them. So I think there's that, And I think Dak against the zone is not as good. They play a lot of zone Seattle does. They're like the second highest rate of zone. And then I think on the other side, they can't protect Gino at all.

Wait.

Wait, I think I'm hearing something. Oh No, twenty eight score twenty eight to thirteen. There's thirteen seconds left in this ball game. Seattle at the Dallas nine yard line and Gino out of the pocket.

He's gonna run for it.

He done touchdown Seattle Penson's Hey, they're.

Gonna lose this ball game twenty eight nineteen, So what's nine and a half's gonna cast?

I love when he loses his breadth of the end. This is phenomenal, all right?

So does that mean I get to start best bets since since you guys had one already. Yeah, so I snake, I get two right here?

All right? Pick numero Uno.

Full disclosure, I have this in my betting account at two and a half, but I got the Niners minus three is my number one here. I got the Niners minus three, And I know Will you said this yesterday on a numbers game. Does it concern me that everybody appears to be on the Niners? Yeah, a little bit, But I do think this is a spot the Eagles can't As much as Todd is saying, the Cowboys can't crush everybody by a million every week, the Eagles can't win every damn game like this just can't happen over

Yeah.

Probably I don't love it as much clearly, but I like the Niners here. I think they're the most complete football team in the NFL, and I think that becomes readily apparent this Sunday to everybody who doubts them. And I think Brock Purdy after this week becomes a serious MVP candidate.

That is my call on that game.

So I'm on the Niners in game number one, game number two, and I bet four of these during guessing lines. Like as much as I hated last week's late I love this one. Pick Numero Dose, Big Numero Dos. I'm what do you owe? They're at three and a half now, I'm still taking them. I'm still taking the Houston Texans at a bad number. I bet this at three. I'm gonna to take them on the megapot at three and a half, which is the consensus, because I that is

Every week that.

Skins team was getting a plus three and a plus four like clockwork. The Broncos have done in four games where they're now.

To plus twelve. You can't keep doing that.

If anything beyond the nineteen eighty three Skins, it is unsustainable. And I don't think they're a very good football team. And I have the Texans as my ninth best team.

We did Power rankings this week and the Texas is the ninth best team in the NFL.

I think they roll here. I actually think they win this by margin. Give me the Texans even here with the hook Houston Texas, you're nodding, Ace, you liked that one.

Huh yeah, I got.

I bet them on the money line and I laid the three as well.

I think it's a great spot for them, man.

I mean, like the last three losses are by three points or less, and I agree with everything you said. I think Denver's phony is a three dollars bill and that defense is just so bad.

I think Houston's gonna have a field day.

Phony is a three dollars bill. By the way, we'll get back to Ace for his pick.

But you said off air for those wondering, because Ace has been on the Vegas Lifestyle Show with us every year until the last couple, you want to get on it this year?

You said, indeed, I think it's necessary.

Like I said that, where the world is trending, I think, especially the young sports betting is just growing and growing and growing. Younger and younger people are are getting involved in it, and this podcast has a big enough reach that I think we owe it to the listeners.

We need to update some of that when they come to town.

Okay, let's do that. We'll get you on there. People are looking forward to that. No, is that a thing? Is that a Philly accent?

Ace? Is that a Filly or Baltimore.

I'm trying to place it because we have Todd's Todd's Philly because it's strange because.

English was my is my second language, like I actually Greek was my what I spoke in the house. I probably went to school and knew about five or six words when I got the kindergarten. But so a Philly mixed with whatever else, that is an accent Philly Greek.

All Right, I gave two. We're snaken back, so this is Will, Will. What's your next one?

I like to be different, but I'm totally in line with your thinking. I'm going to take the Texans here.

Onay the three and a half.

This is just a total house of cards here with Denver. All of their defensive stops are off of turnovers. All of their offensive sex comes off success comes off of short fields because of the turnovers.

And when you're just.

Plus three plus four all these weeks, you can't sustain that. They're they're just they're really handcuffing Wilson. They're asking him not to lose the game if they get behind that. I don't trust him to come back and you get.

Him in the back door here. So I'll lay the three. I hate the hook.

I would love it obviously a lot more if it was three. But this is just Denver winning close games based on turnover look is completely unsustainable.

Texans minus three and a half.

Can I get some reaction to that? Redskins nineteen eighty three thing plus forty three?

That was a different league. That was a different league where there were turnovers. That a completely different.

Era, one hundred percent right, But I I watched every play of every game that season. It was amazing. They had sixty one takeaways.

That's insane.

Sixty one.

You converted that in like the inflation rate, inverted that to today's, it would be like five would still be great, but it would be much low.

Forty three to thirty five. Okay, I'll get you know.

That's a staggering stat.

It's a staggering Statutty era.

They had forty three for the season, plus.

Forty three, but differential.

Right, so they would be they'd be like plus twenty five. This year, you know, something.

Like Todd wish neev turnover differential inflation rate.

I'm just saying there were way if you look at the NFL and the old days, there were much more turnovers than there are today. If you know, each turnover in those days is like two and a half of a turnover nowadays, we don't have.

Right, that's correct, but the corct is that though, but the correct way, but the correct way of viewing that is what that was based on all the other teams then, and it was still still exponentially more.

Second, I'm not taking anything away from the Joe Gibbs and jam It You're you're, you're, you're, you're never ending love for this this franchise.

I'm not don't have a problem with that.

I'm just I'm just you know, because when people hear these numbers, they probably like, oh, oh, that's a tremendous amount of turn Yeah, it is because in those days there were turnovers. Now there's not turnovers like that because everyone's scared to turn the ball over. They know if you turn the ball over, you're gonna lose. So it's it's a completely different league now, all.

Right, I'm let me see I'm going from I'm just gonna go to the last decade. In two thousand and six, there was a plus seventeen.

Bear with me. Two thousand and seven, there was a plus seventeen.

I'm just so yeah, I go buy this this.

It's pretty incredible. It's pretty incredible what they did.

By That's what I'm saying. Yeah, we don't have that nowadays. You can't get to plus forty. It's impossible.

This sandy forty. The San Diego Charters in two thousand and seven had a plus twenty four.

How about that, which is a ridiculous number for that even.

That, that's a ridiculous number. Anyway, Okay that what's your number two?

Okay my number two pick and you know, slim pickings again this year this week, I disagree. You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the New or I'm gonna hold my nose and go with the New Orleans Saints.

I have two hold my nose plays Seattle.

I'm holding my nose and I'm gonna hold my nose again with the Saints. Plus four. Here's the thing, Detroit. You know, I was all big Detroit. Look at Detroit. Wow, Detroit and I still think they're pretty good on offense, but.

Wow, the defense has really been bad lately. I can't believe that.

You know, Green Bay's just moving up and down on the Bears, just moving up and down on them like they're not even there. You know, the Saints at home, you know, as much as you know, Derek Carr makes me, you know, with his endless four yard.

Passes, makes me want to pew. You know, sooner or later. You know they're going to have a decent offensive game. They're not that bad.

And now they're at home and they're getting four points in it. You know, you can't be laying four points unless you're a really good team on the road in the NFL. And and the Lions they're good, but I don't know if i'd call them really good. I think there's been some chinks in the armor lately, So I think that that that that line's a bit inflated. I think four is a lot of point to be laying on the road when you're a team that's good but not I wouldn't call the Lions elite. So let's all

Do you know how much incoming I took when I had the audacity to have the Lions just outside my top ten for most of the year, and the highest I've ever had.

Them is tenth.

All the Lions lovers just coming after me, I'm like, no, this is exactly what they are.

And I would have disagreed with you.

Then I would have been like them, because I was high on the Lions too. But I've started to, you know, lose a little luster with the Lions lately.

Twenty ten Patriots plus twenty eight, twenty eleven, nine Ers plus twenty eight, those I think are the next closest to.

The plus forty three eighty three Skins. Okay, Ace, your second and third picks?

What do you got?

All right?

I like the New Orleans pick from Todd that's offense versus defense, and I will take defense as well at home for sure catching points with New Orleans. But real quickly, let me make this my second pick. It's the Chargers New England over.

I'm going to go.

Over over forty and a half right now. At where you're at, you could get over forty. That's what I did. But with grade forty and a half. That's what it is across market, and this is a simple case of unefficient market correcting itself. Yes, I get it, these have been under teams of late, especially, but when you look at the number for the Chargers, this is the lowest total.

They've had in a long time.

In there are last ten games, only once have they had a total closed below forty four. So the market has definitely adjusted for the lower scoring.

I like that, and then I look at the Chargers offense.

I think they'll have no problem putting up points against a very weak New England defense that's ranked twenty third in past success right especially they were coming off a bad game last time he had a passer roating below. He came back with the passer rating of one hundred and fifteen his very next game, and that's what he did exactly last game against Baltimore with a passer rating of seventy five points seven.

I think he bounces back with a big game.

And on the flip side with New England, the only thing I can say simply is a progression to the mean, Like you can't get and get worse. Just look at their quarterbacks play in their.

Last couple of games.

Look at those ratings twenty seven point eight forty two, like the only way you could go is up. It's pretty hard to go down from that. So I think any improvement.

To quarterback play is going to help his team put up points. And going against the LA Chargers, who.

Again defensive passing success rate are twenty sixth in the NFL, I think even a mnemic offense like New England will be able to put up enough points where combined they get us Tough over forty.

I think Chargers, New England over forty forty and a half. Excuse me.

And finally, this is one of the short plays. You know, I provide accounts for different groups and different sports, and two hit the same exact side within twenty minutes of each other, and I agree with it.

And it's the Green Bay Packers.

On Sunday night catching the six against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lise, I'm high on the Chiefs like everybody else, but I like what I've been seeing of Green Bay of late, especially of Love.

He's done nothing but improve.

And anytime he's had a bad game, he's bounced right back.

That's what I love. He's coming off a.

Great game and I think that continues. He's had three of his last four games.

Have been nominal. Fine times under the He's given a little bit too many points here. I think it's even.

Worth a sprinkle case. He's got a game with Buffalo up next. Again, you're not gonna overlook for Little Green Bay in Lambeau on Sunday night. But with that said, it's still at a conference. You're on the right, and I think the Packers catching six are live here. So I'll go with over in the Chargers New England game, and then I'll go with the so called steam move on Green Bay plus the six ace.

Let me ask you a question about sprinkle.

We made you made it famous on this podcast for so many years saying sprinkle, and I used to throw in the e forty jingle afterwards where it would hit as you said it. When you hear everybody in the gambling world using that phrase, Now, do you believe you had something to do with that, like or do you believe that that was something that was said rampantly before you used to say it?

Oh god, no, no no, no, absolutely not no no no.

I started that back in when we were like over a decade ago. Yep, when we were together, and it came from something in my life that had nothing to do with sports. Yep, that's why I know that I brought it into this realm and.

We just said it so much, and the podcast was so big.

Remember there weren't a lot of shows back, No, it was just Dustin Millman, so much.

To choose from, exactly.

So the betters were listening to us and they just started using it in their lexicon, and then those people started doing their own content and using it, and it just spread. And of course you're never going to get credit. Of course that's an originated but we did start it so far back and now when I see it, actually, i'm proud of that that we actually added a word.

We added a word to the you started breaking up there.

We left something behind that that will not be raised.

We left something behind.

Let's so we left a lot of things behind, but that was definitely one of them for sure. Okay, that means we're back to Todd for his final one.

Well, I coined the phrase took us push that everyone's using it.

I started it out as took us push, which.

Is a by the way, somebody somebody made a college game day sign for a Numbers game this morning, and they did a Bingo card for all the ship I say, and took us pushes on here Todd. It's one of the Bengos squares they got on there, So that's for me. Yeah, I love it.

By the way, as far as aces over forty and a half La Clipper bet, I kind of like that one too, especially because remember we talked about it on Doctor Bob when when both teams, you know, when the spread, like one team spread is seven and two and the

But anyways, can I ask the book? Can I ask a Bill Belichick questions? As you bring it up? He's going to the Hall of Fame? But do you think after this season that there is a comma and the last phrase that people will have to say about him is but he did kind of suck when Brady wasn't there. Do you think that's part of it?

Now? You don't think you don't think that's fair?

I don't think I mean he was Look, he was a good coach with Cleveland. He just kept running into the Steelers with coach Kier and.

That we used to give him a whooping in that.

But he killed in Cleveland. What did you say, Well, I mean the move killed him in Cleveland. There's a good documentary about that where they had a really good team and a good season go in the middle of the season they found out they were moving and that team ended up being the Ravens.

So like, I don't know, I don't know that that. I think that is a part of it too.

So so then what we're really saying is mac Jones and Bailey Zappi are so bad at football that any coach would have been this bad.

Well, I mean, how many years years old?

Any seventy two years old, you're allowed to be You're allowed to maybe the game pass you by a little bit at seventy two. Yeah, if that's what you're saying, will Yeah.

He was only he was only a dominant figure for what twenty years? Every single week.

I started by I started by saying, he's the first beat. You know, he's a Hall of Famer. No one's doubting that.

I'm just saying, does that Does that sentence creep into people's minds now?

Well, because people are idiots and they'll say that. But I don't think it's fair.

Okay, I think nowadays, But like but when you know, twenty years from now, when the dust settles, I think it'll get lost more than it is now.

Like we're all I think you're.

In the moment.

There's recency bias where yeah, I said this about I think when Durant signed with the Warriors, we're in the moments like, oh.

My god, how could he do this?

Nobody will remember these titles like twenty thirty years from now, people just remember Durant won this many titles, scored this many points, and things fate over time.

Yep, I think you're probably right. Go ahead, Todd.

I'm sorry, Okay, my third pick it it was between going against my YenS ers down are.

Where I got the free parking on seal.

You know, you got to get that email from the River's Casino otherwise you're gonna pay one hundred dollars to park at the casino and walk down into game.

Now.

I got my free parking this week, and I was thinking about going with the little Menchkin Guy, Kyler Murray in at but I just can't pull the trigger because that Cardinal team is not real good, and you know, I have a feeling that maybe the Storers can cover the number. So I'm gonna stay away from my Stiller's game. I was thinking about taking Cardinals plus five and a half in that, but I won't do it because I mean, when do we ever win a game by five and

We never win a It's ridiculous. Anyways, I'm gonna.

Go with Instead of that, I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville jag Offs. That's another Pittsburgh word they call people jag off, Hey, jag off.

The Jacksonville jag Offs.

Minus nine against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Wow.

And the reason I don't like laying nine points? I mean, who wants to lay nine points in an NFL game? But I am actually and I've been high on Jacksonville, I think more than most people you know for a while. And I think it's because defense is better than people give.

It credit for.

And I just think that this Jacksonville team is a real legit contender in the AFC. In fact, I think it's going to be between Jacksonville and the Ravens who ends up being in the super Bowl. I think the Chiefs are not the Chiefs, and so I think it's gonna be between Jacksonville and the Ravens. And I know that Jacksonville got spanked by the Niners that one week, but other than that, they've been playing amazing. And this Tim Boyle character or whoever they have not Tim Boyles

His name is Jake Brown? Jake Browning.

Jake brown Right, I.

Put Tim Boyle and Jake Browning together, but Jake Browning is not ready for the National Football League. And come on, the Jacksonville defense is good. You know, when I'm going to lay a big number, I want to make sure my defense can hold the other team down. So that's why I like Jacksonville this week. I think they can hold the Bengals to you know, thirteen points and win this game, you know, twenty four to thirteen or something.

So I like Jacksonville.

Minus the nine and and you know, I'll just hold my breath that I can cover the nine.

All right, will your final pick?

Todd hinted, I'll go with the Cardinals. I'll take the five and a half for all the reasons he mentioned. Steelers don't pull away from anybody.

Tomin It's interesting.

I'm not a huge trend guy, but Tomlin there's a pattern with him where he's good off of a loss. He's good as an underdog. Well, he's not off of a loss, and he's not an underdog.

He's off of a win.

He's off a favorite, and he is a favorite. I just think five and a half is a lot with that offense for Pittsburgh, every single game they win.

Is twenty to seventeen, seventeen to fourteen.

So that was ugly last week from Arizona. But maybe you're buying a little low. You can get maybe a backdoor from Murray there, run around and do something. I don't think it's going to take a lot of points for Arizona to cover this. I will take Arizona plus the five and a half. It was between that and San Francisco, but I don't want to have two a year's gil, so I will go Arizona plus the five and a half.

All right.

My final one is the Indianapolis Colts taking the Indianapolis Colts, and I'm laying the points against the Tennessee Titans on the road. It's actually a better number than I got it at now. It's what minus won or is it a pick?

Olts minus one?

Golts minus one? I'm taking this here. I don't know.

This is a really weird one for me, and I don't know that I've ever given this explanation for any pick I've ever made. But you ever catch an interview of anything and it lands on you in a certain way where you're like Oh, this team's about to do some stuff. That's how it was for me with the Colts when they squeaked by the Patriots ten to six right before their bye week. The Colts had one of these buys the week before last, where I think it was perfectly situated on their schedule.

They're five and five.

They managed somehow to get a five and five into the bye without Anthony Richardson, without Jonathan Taylor for most of the season. I don't think Gardner Minshew is that good quite frankly, but the interview was with Jonathan Taylor, and he was super excited about the fact that they were having a week off and that then they could reset,

Why don't you read their schedule to us?

I shall do that, thank you very much. I really should do such a thing.

Here was their schedule before the bye, by the way, it was at Carolina at New England, then they got their bye.

They beat Tampa Bay last week.

Now it's at Tennessee, at Cincinnati home Pittsburgh, at Atlanta home, Vegas home Houston. So they are winning the games they're supposed to win. They've got Tennessee here.

Now at Tennessee, I think if they look at their schedule, this might be one of the.

Easiest of the rest too as well. I should say I think they win this football game. I don't think very much of Tennessee. I think the shine has come off Vabel. I don't think we think of him as a particularly great coach anymore. I think we talked about this about Derek Henry and past weeks where it's like it might be over for Derek Henry, or might it might be the beginning of the age curve for him.

Before we go to the teasers, you can I just say one quick thing about end game.

Yes, another one of the in games.

And this is why it's so important to watch the games if you want to, you know, win an in game.

Now.

I've been terrible this year. This has been a bad year. I've also been unlucky with the kicking. But but you know, last week Williams for the Rams was playing the Cardinals, and if you watch the first game between the Cardinals and the Rams, in the second half of that first game, they just handed it off to Williams and he gashed him. He looked like Wisconsin in twenty sixteen, where they would just run for nine yards every play against Ball State.

But they were up big and.

They were literally handing the ball to Williams and he was gashing them for eight yards, nine ten yards.

It was ridiculous. That was the last game.

Then this game comes up, and the first half of this game, he's got sixty four yards on ten carries, which is six point four carry, which in the NFL is a gaudy number already, right, And if you're watching the game, you're going wait a second. The last time they played the Cardinals, everyone knew in the stadium that he was going to run, and they ran like crazy. Now in the first half again they handed off to him.

They didn't keep giving it to Williams. He's going to keep killing them. So what do they do.

The first handoff off at the commercial? I make over ninety seven and a half. I texted it out on my WhatsApp group over ninety seven and a half. He's got sixty four they handed to Williams. He run for fifty yards on the next play. I literally won the bet in one second, but I didn't even need to because they literally were getting six and seven yards a gash.

But it brings up the bigger point that we've made before about about watching games versus not watching games, and we don't like Bob is always on the show, right Doctor Bob and a dear friend who you know, I've said it with him President. I don't feel like I'm talking behind his back. He makes it a point to say and he almost wears it as a badge of honor right where he's like, I don't watch that many games.

You just can't. You can't.

And we have guys who are super successful as contest players, right, Las Vegas.

Chris doesn't. He's like, I don't want to sit through this. I don't want to sit through Yes.

So about Vegas to examples.

Why don't you let will talk once for a second.

No, I was just gonna say quickly.

I could think of two examples recently college basketball. Last week, I was on the air VS and it was Syracuse Shamanad and I think they were laying like twenty two before the game, and you couldn't make the number high off Shamanad.

It was the third game in three days against the D one school.

They were just they had no legs, they were out of gas, and Syracuse just beat him by fifty. And every time you know, there's a TV timeout, I just kept laying it and laying and this is in past post and I was saying on the air and they.

Just looked completely overmatched.

The other example there was recently a Boston College Vanderbilt College basketball game, and you could tell early on they were calling a lot of fouls and that late in the game that game.

Might get a little dicey with the foul situation.

They might get foul that we could push it from like sixteen to seventeen, so that was another one.

Are you talking about drill?

It took me like ten seconds big duty?

Did you have money on that one?

No?

No, I haven't even heard about this game.

What happened?

Did you tell me that Vanderbilt guy's just whacked up the guy with three seconds off when it was a dribble out?

Yeah, I heard about that.

Will that one builds slowly. It took me a while to catch on. I was like, what does he tell you?

Oh?

I get it?

So all right?

Before we get to the final two questions.

What about Ace? You ask Ace about whether he watches the games?

Ace?

You watch or you don't watch?

No, No, I'll be honest with you.

Since I've gotten divorced over the last couple of months, it's been finalized, I have the TV on more on games, and I've watched a couple more games than I usually would.

And I'll be one truthful with you. It's been a waste of time.

Like all it's done is it's convinced me that I've wasted my time and more importantly, my emotions, like I love game that I end like I did this ready. It seems like I've already done this so many times in the past why do I want to go through this again? And it just doesn't help me at all, gil Like and this isn't a brag or anything like that, but like light now at wager talk, I'm sitting at number one in college basketball, I haven't watched the college

I envy that.

I know I don't have that skill set, so I don't even try to acquire it.

To me, it becomes a waste of energy and time and like.

I said, emotion to where I don't even want to invest that. I rather put that elsewhere to like, so I won't even have the games on rarely.

It's interesting because this is what makes this is what makes betting on sports so interesting, right, because it's a spectrum of sports betters. And here's the thing.

If that works for you, whatever works for you is working, yelp, keep doing it. There is There is no sacred correct answer, right. I'm just of the I'm not wired in a way where I can't watch it, but you are wired in a way where you can avoid watching it.

By the way, I.

Don't even want to know the results real quickly. I check my results the next morning. I swear on everything that I'll have my biggest bet on a Sunday night ball game and I will put on a movie and go to bed and wait till morning to find out because I don't even want it to enter my mind and have that affect me while I'm trying to get my six hours of rest, Like I'm had to make it that much a point to not let it affect

The score and if they lost, it would affect me.

And if they want it would have affected me either way I don't see it as a positive, So I just avoided. For other people that could handle it, more power to them. And like I said, I envy that. It's just I'm not capable of doing it.

Hey, you're probably better at life balance than I am. You probably are. We're definitely cut from a different species cloth, that's for sure, but you you probably a better life balance. Sorry to hear about your your divorce. Maybe it's a good thing. I don't know.

I don't know how you feel.

It's a positive. It's a positive.

Yeah, divorce.

If you get divorced, then you don't watch any games and think about how bad that marriage was.

I'm just kidding.

I'm just kidding, But I'm just saying, you don't even watch games and it still couldn't work.

Usually usually get divorced because you watched you any gas, for sure?

Yeah, yeah, exactly. This was definitely not man to be.

By the way, we have DoD on the bingo board for a numbers game two, I'm trying to think what other really wish to ever related ones we have feik uh, that's not that's not youta hobbs dobbs, whole bunch of stuff on here. Okay, teaser of the week where Todd, what's your record? And what will and me are seven and five?

The number one record on the teasers at eight and for everybody else is seven and five.

You have a one game lead, Todd. I know you were very excited by that that comment right there, but it's a one game.

And the fact I said I'm the number one record.

Okay, Ace, your favorite two team teaser of the weeks are as the lines are currently constituted.

Okay, I tease. I only tease the numbers.

You know that the key numbers through the outs that I have that give me six point teaser minus one ten.

I don't even lay minus one twenties anymore. If I can't find one, nine, one ten at six points, I don't even want to tease it.

And I think with my approach, the only mathematical plus EVTs are available. I believe would be Jacksonville tight end with the Jets. But since I wouldn't have an opinion and I would.

Just tease numbers, that's what I would do.

But for the show, I want to have an opinion, and my I do like the Jets side. I do think the wrong team's favored in that one. I think that's a great teaser option number one. The total open thirty six, its drop down the thirty four. We know each point's worth more the less points expected to be scored, So I like that. I liked that they're home, and I like that they're getting through those key numbers of three and seven by taking the Jets.

Up to eight eight and a half on a six point teaser.

And then I'm going to pick a sign that I like on the points bread and this just adds a little insurance. And that's the Tampa Bay Buck Carolina Panthers, excuse me over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And the reason simple.

As a kneemic as offense has been their top fifteen defense as far as passing success rate goes. And I think that's more than enough to keep this within the number.

And I like that the total is also dropping from a high of thirty nine and a half now as low as thirty seven.

They would take them up to eleven and a half, and thirty seven points are expected to be scored.

I think that makes some sense.

I'll lay my teaser with the Jets plus the eight eight and a half whatever we're using and Carolina plus the eleven and a half.

Okay, yeah, the long The longers are slim pickings right at this moment, aren't they.

Yeah?

Yeah, they're just usually within the first day or two, the ones that they know they're going to get wong do they bomb bumped them.

Them like they did with Dallas. That teaser protection that.

They pull the ones that they noticed also a dead.

Giveaway when they don't.

We'll get last week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, when they didn't tease or protect the Detroit Lions. All the talk was about how that's the most teased game ever. Oh, it was so much exposure, so much risk, and yet they're not rushing. They go to nine or nine and a half, they're willing to take a position. To me, that's just the red flag. Again, I may be seeing something that's not even there, but that to me is just the red flag.

By the way, we didn't get to talk about this game on this podcast, but that it was one thing that green Bay came out and popped them in the mouth and took that early lead and held that lead. To me, the most damning thing about this game, and I said this on the radio side, which is the lack of urgency of the Lions in the fourth quarter of that game when they were down two scores was so bizarre. I'm like, do they know they're down two scores? Like, let's pick it up a little bit, guys. And then

By the way.

One thing, also, I understand exactly what Ace is saying, by the way about not letting his mind get infected by what he's seeing. And there's definitely something to that. I'm not saying that there isn't. I just feel for me personally it's better. And also I lose out on rants.

Of the field.

You know there's two sides of the field in the NFL that the fifty yard line is one side of the field. The other side of the fields the other the Jets had. I took under four and a half team total after I saw they were not moving the ball and they never made it onto the Miami side of the field in the entire first half, and I had under four and a half.

By the way, it's.

Hard to get to touch that effect the rest of your day, like the rest of your handicap.

In the last full game.

The game that I watched was last week when I had Nebraska on throwing the I don't even know if it was Saturday or the weekday game, and they ended up you know exactly, and I'm like, why did I even do that to myself?

I swear that was the last That was the end of it, because it affected me the rest.

Like I that was still early in the day. There was still so much to handicap, so much to bet on, and the fact that I had to go through that those last five minutes, I just felt like, it's going to affect the way I'm handicapping the rest of this card. And it's like, you, it doesn't. That's awesome that you could compartmental.

No, I mean, at times, it doesn't. I've taken so many shots to the keyster at this point that I'm almost numb from from getting blasted on these ridiculous losses, and that I just have to go, Okay, you know what, shake it off, Go to the next bet, Shake it off, go to the next bet. But but the point is is the Jets did not get on the Miami side of the field and yet still had seven points. And I still don't know how they got to seven points. I think two of three a pick six book.

But anyways, look at look how well, Look how well Ace that he got over that Vanderbilt game. Yesterday He hasn't talked about it at all yet today he oh, by the way.

And Ace is right, by the way. Ace.

I didn't bet the rest of the night after the after the Vanderbilt game because of that.

Ye Like, I was like, oh, should I keep Should I keep going?

Or should I just be like, you know what, that's enough for tonight and I And part of the reason was that was such a heinous loss that I was just like, Okay, you know enough for tonight.

That's it.

So it is interesting.

It is interesting, right because betting is a reflection of the human condition. People handle stuff and deal with stuff the same way or approach stuff in different ways.

I should say, by the way, I spent the last.

Five minutes looking at a football field to make sure that the fifty yard line in fact splits a football field at half and it does.

Check.

Yeah, and you can't get on It's hard to get a touch down if you don't get on the other side of the other teams steal.

You are correct, Yes, yes.

Hushem found a way to give me a keyster blast the most ridiculous way of all time.

Do you think a Shem is in the business of keister blast? You think that's up on his list?

He thinks he does.

He's like how sert a hot poker into the most sensitive regions against Todd when he has the greatest bet of all time a team to not get four and a half when they can't even get on the other side of the field. Okay, anyways, with all that being said, I agree with mister Ace. I'm also taking the Jets up to eight. I don't believe in the Jets. I can't stand the Jets. I can't stand their offense. I can't stand anything about the Jets. I hate them, I

You know.

The only thing is I'm not as high on the Colts as Gilly is. I think the Colts are decent. But now you're asking him to win by seven on the road, especially in a game that's going to be like run, run, run, run the clock, run the clock, run the clock. You know the Colts are going to give it to Taylor like a thousand times. You know they're gonna give it to Henry a thousand times. It's going to be hard to lose by more than seven. I'll get Tennessee plus seven, but you're asking.

Him to win by more than seven. I'm not Yeah, oh no, you're not.

I'm just saying with the t I wouldn't take Tennessee plus the one. But if you've given me all the way up to the seven, now I'm saying, okay, I think I could.

Do that, Willy.

I thought about using the Jets, but a couple of things concern me. I just worry that defense is quitting at some point where like what are we playing for? Like why are we trying to rescue this season with Tim Boyle? Like you worry about them. Defense is all about intensity and if you just lose five percent of that it takes you from a really good defense to a less defense. So I do worry about that the last whatever third of the season, and plus Rogers could

I can't believe the amount of time. They're four and seven, about to be four and eight. He's not playing. If he is playing, they should fire everybody.

Yeah, I'm just so sick of that.

But yeah, I went off on it this morning, and I agree with you. Will I need to get doctor chow on. I need to like actually challenge him on this bullshit it is.

So I'll just.

Real quickly in twenty seconds. First of all, they're not going to be in playoff contention. Secondly, I've ruptured two of these. There still a rate of rerupture. We're still humans. As great as his surgeon might be in as great as that technique might be, cam Akers is the gold standard. He was twenty two years old. He came back in five and a half months. Aaron Rodgers thirty nine. He's saying he's gonna come back in three and a half months. There is if the Jets allow him on the field.

And actually play the real position and get hit.

You cannot let a You cannot let him get back out there, even if you are in CONTESGI. It is so ridiculous. And you have all these doctors online. Oh, I think it's very possible that I can do this.

No, no, not real for ball, no stop it dumbest.

Thing, right, Yeah, I totally agree. All right, my teaser, I'll just take the Jags down to the two and a half for obvious is it nine?

Nine?

Jacksonville? We're using nine. I had to lay nine down.

You're you're manipulating the records to begin with, so I can try to get.

That's right, who you have no credibility anymore.

I'll take the Titans.

I'll throw one little thing in there. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw Tannehill again. I think the AFC is starting to come back to the pack where the Titans can talk themselves and hey, maybe we can get into the playoffs.

I don't know.

Tannehill is an okay player. It gives you I would be shocked if we saw him again. Plus seven, What the hell, I'll break the rules. I'll go Cowboys to the minus three. If it lands on three, I get a push. You're not supposed to do this. I don't know if I would bet.

It three and a half because we're using Dallas minus nine and a half other picks.

Okay, Jesus, Jesus, what a police officer. This guy is all right?

Jets plus eight, he's supposed to have jest plus I'll live with it if Tim Boyle is gonna give me, as Todd says, the old the old Keister shot here. I don't love it, but I'll just play the numbers here, Titans and Jets.

I just want to warn the Steve Phesicks of the world that you can take away my sharp card before what I'm about to do.

But I don't care. This is the week where they're no longers.

I am taking the Jaguars down to what is it three about it?

Dag Wars is down to three?

Yeah, I'm taking the Jaguars down to three, and I'm taking the Miami Dolphins sing it down to three and a half at Washington.

The Dolphins right now, what's that physics, Texas?

Yeaes Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. They are not a long teaser. Oh Gilly, you're using it, and you're gonna take a beating from our dad's.

Defense, from our dad's defense. If if the Dolphs, the Dolphins should be able to name their score against Washington. We saw the Washington defense against Dallas on Thanksgiving. Miami should be able to score one hundred. And I don't think Cincinnati's got any thing to push back on Jacksonville. So I'm yes, it's not wrong, gie, but I'm doing that one. That's gonna be Miami and Jacksonville as a teaser. By the way, television recommendation in season Hard Knocks Miami Dolphins.

They're two episodes in. It is so good, Mike ma is it really?

Mike McDaniel is so likable he's so different. He has absolutely exists at his own constitution. He doesn't care what anybody else thinks about his personality. He's hilarious, he's smart. Tua is super likable. Even Tyreek is super likable, but Tua especially.

I love it. I think it's a great and by the way, Jalen Phillips just a ruptured as Achilles, so that was kind of sad to watch also, but it's good. I like the Dolphins all hard nuts.

I gotta check it out. I saw the first fifteen minutes of like the first one, that it was late. I was falling asleep. I forgot it was even on. It just sort of came on, So I'll get back to it. I just had a quick question, Gil, because you're familiar with Washington in this field, do you have any thoughts just handicapping this game. That track is always sloppy, especially late in the year. Miami's a team that needs

It's a good point, but in the wash no, okay, yeah, I think with that you have a defense.

Yeah, you have to have some semblance of a defense.

And I do think I just need to maybe think of playing an under or something like that.

Oh that might be a play, right, because it's forty nine and a half. That could be. But I just like the law.

The trading of Chase Young and Montes Sweat has reduced them to such little pass rush that it's just those corners suck to begin with, So it's gonna be tough for Washington to keep contact with them. But yeah, the under might be a play. Maybe that's enough to get it under. Which brings us to the final two questions of every megapod in history. Hece, we'll remember these two, the first of which is of the big favorites, which

The Dallas Cowboys to night. I do think Seattle is live in this game.

Not just because I lean that way, but it's just Dallas's history of a misstep when it shouldn't happen, and this is prime. They're coming off a game where they look great, a game that mattered, They had a couple big games in a row, and now they have Philly up next. I really do think this smells up a huge letdown for the Dallas Cowboys. And you know they're a five to zero team at home. You really think Dallas is gonna end up going eight no at home?

I don't think. So.

Look for Seattle to throw a wrench to that home undefeated record the night and get the money line win.

That's mine they get there, that's mine too. By the way, I agree with A's completely on that one.

Dodd, I agree too.

I mean, if there was ever a team that was ready to make a duty down their leg, this is the team that's ready to do it.

Will I'll go Commanders, just because you know, Miami outdoors, maybe in the cold, not a great track. I saw some questionability about Hill being at one hundred percent, So I don't love it.

I don't think it happens. I'll just I'll take a flyer on Washington.

Okay.

By the way, real brief survivor question. There's eighty entries left in Circus Survivor and sixty seven started us.

The intrinsic value of each of those remaining eighty entries is you're ready for this one hundred Let me get the exact number. One hundred ow places, sorry, one and fifty teen eight and thirty seven dollars and fifty cents.

Okay, most of these remaining entries have been chalky. They don't have any of the big favorites left. Some do, but most don't. If you so, you didn't have Jacksonville, you didn't have Dallas, you didn't have Miami left most of No, you didn't have Dallas or Miami because you've used those. Jacksonville you're probably saving for their home game against Carolina later after Christmas, which you're already.

Saving the Eagles for. By the way, I didn't include the Chiefs in that group on the road against one of the Chiefs. Right now, those still six.

Points and a half.

Yeah, yeah, I can't excuse me, can't can't include this. And by the way, they've used the Chiefs too. If you had a choice, I did this with Will on air the other day. So you're reduced to a choice of these three games. Chargers on the road against the Patriots is choice number one, Steelers at home against the Cardinals is choice number two, and choice number three is the Buccaneers at home against the Panthers. So Chargers on

Yeah, well, the Panthers are just a dreadful team.

Will I, even though I like Pittsburgh, even though I like the Arizona getting the points, I think it's Pittsburgh.

I just I don't think they'll lose the game.

I worry about Trash playing quarterback for Baker. I worry about a little bit of a coaching bump with Reich being fired. Sometimes you see that for a week. I know, it's kind of washes in the numbers, and I just I would throw up in my mouth before I had that much money relying on the Chargers to do anything productive.

So by default, sort of, it would be the.

Steelers ace those three games, Which which is the survivor play? Yeah?

For me, it's the Steelers as well. I mean not always.

Arizona statistically one of the worst teams in all of the NFL, but put them on the road and it gets even worse for them. So for a team to win straight off and power rating wise, I think it makes sense. Pittsburgh's solid there and defensively, I take this steel.

I'm Todd, I'm with you on this one. I think it's the Buccaneers.

Just because if I played the Chargers, they would absolutely lose if I.

Can't if I don't, if you lose with the Chargers and you can't take the can't mortgage, if.

I could just finish the thought and if I took but if I don't take the Chargers, they will absolutely win. So I don't want I just want us to end of the Chargers business. You're right, the self loathing would be off the charts. And with the Steelers, like Kyler Murray's.

Just pesky enough that I don't want to live. I don't want to live through that.

But with the Bucks, God, there's just nothing on the other side of the field that makes me worry, even with a new coach, right interim coach. So I would take the Bucks, even though I hate the Bucks.

All right, final question. We live in a bizarre world.

We must play a side on each and every one of these games, but we are allowed one free pass.

Ace. What's the game you want no part of?

And the Lambs? Yeah, there's just the line, the change of line movements.

It just confuses me. Did the quarterback situation on both teams? To me, that's just the stay away game again a.

While ago with clear Swan now Slams minus four and a half.

This is one of those games you would have liked to gotten involved with where you could middle if you got out ahead of the market.

Otherwise it's just nothing. I want to get involved.

With Cleveland at the Rams. What it's no part of that game? Dad? What do you want no part?

I agree? What is Joe Flacco the quarterback?

Now?

Like? Who's playing quarterback for the bre This is insane. I don't want any piece of second. By the way, on that show on the Miami Dolphins in game, I mean in season Hard Knocks, do they play the incessant.

Three seconds?

I know doing that, I know the song, but they don't use it as much in the end season Hard Knocks.

I love the show, but it's just like every two second, the guy's walking into the building, like it's dramatic.

I mean, he's just walking in the building. Can we call him the f down?

In the summer one, they have the drama.

It's one of the big storylines of who's gonna make the team, who's gonna be cut, So there's a human interest story. There's a little bit of drama with that where you have suiting guys you're rooting for to make the team and they could be cut any day. So that's that's an element that's not really there on the nd season one.

But you know, yeah they have like yeah, but you know what they like. They cut back on that on the preseason one too.

They didn't show that, they didn't show the cuts.

But yeah, we're still a storyline, right, this guy's on draft or he's a seventh round pick and he's got kids and this is his life story. Well you're only mak They weave that into the storyline.

That used to be the best part of the show, I thought where I think the best one ever was the Cleveland Browns one where Baker Mayfield and that and Hugh Jackson.

That was so great, but you.

Just got fired by Jackson State by the way.

He did, Oh my god. But like that. I remember Rod Gardner when it was with the Chiefs because I always us tomorrow. I was like, wow, all these players take this so well when they get cut, and I remember Rod Garter of the Chiefs was.

Like, why the fuck y'all cut me? It's like finally somebody got that. That's great.

I like the one with Herm.

Edwards was the coach and he was bringing a big sign to meet the bus, and I'm thinking, if he has enough time to write a sign to meet the bus, he's not doing his job. And I was never a big herm as a coach guy, and that led to many bets against Arizona State and the under I.

Love that Cleveland Browns one man, do you remember when like I remember when Hugh Jackson were Yeah, because there was the who was the offensive coordinator? What was my man's name, Mark Trestman, No.

It was uh he was Chiefs head coach.

I thought Trustman was offensive order. Anyway, there was there was this dynamic where I remember when they finally, like Hugh Jackson finally made Baker Mayfield the number two guy, and I remember Bayfield being like number two.

Like Todd Haley.

Todd Haley, That's who.

It was, the one that trust me, right, it was Todd Haley. And I remember thinking about Baker may Vad. He was like, these guys expect me to like rejoice that they gave me the number two job.

It's like, I don't want this. I like, thanks, big deal. There were so many little elements to that one.

Carl Kucikuchi Cook, Carl Okay, so you say you agree with Acetent Todd, You're you're on that Cleveland Rams game. By the way, Flacco officially is still the headline still say could start for Browns, could start.

I mean he's probably an upgrade from.

Dtr Adam si Adam Schefter's latest report with dtr now in concussion protocol. Joe Flacco has been taking snaps, been taking snaps as Cleveland's QB won and practice could start.

He's also a could start all right, and then Ian Rappaport says, would get the starter. What is your choice? Will which which you want to part of?

I'll go Van Dy Boston College, I'll go I'll go Chargers, Pat reasons wait second half of the Okay.

Yeah, Chargers, Chargers Patriots. I am going to select the Lion Saints game.

Actually I don't.

Yeah, like Cleveland Rams was gonna be my number two, but Lion Saints, just because the Lions couldn't have looked any more listless this last game. I know they're on extra rest, and I think Derek Carr, like I, I can't stand Derek Carr always makes the wrong choice the wrong time. That that one you sent me will where he throws the four yard out. I let out an audible gasp watching that live. I was like, oh, that, I'll get him to the sticks. I don't know, but

I appreciate it to everybody. Ace. Great to see you, man, great to see you.

I'm seeing you too, Gil and all you guys. Thank you so much much for having me on appreciation.

Thank you for doing it, and we'll get you back for the lifestyle show.

Yes, thank you, of course, of course, thank you.

Pleasure, and I'm not going to ask you what you're going to talk about.

It sounds like it sounds like, though, based on what you're saying, that this is a more serious version of Ace coming up on the Lifestyle show. Yes, okay, all right, yes, all right, and your Twitter.

Is greekunderscore, damnbler.

Greek, Greek underscore gambler. All right, Todd will thank you, gentlemen, appreciate it very much. I will have a bounce back, we ladies and gentlemen. I'm not letting these guys catch me. Thanks for listening, Good luck with all your best Week thirteen and then National Football League