Beating The Book: 2023 Week 1 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Check it down man, Tuesday morning, September fifth, twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book podcast Megapod week number one of the NFL season. Our thirteenth year doing the megapod. Thirteen we were podcasting before podcasting was cool. Thank you for all your loyalty through the years doing this. It's Gil Alexander. Let me introduce the two staples of the show. I'm at the D Bar Canada, at the D here in Las Vegas. Two staples of the show this year.

I'm doing great because of this?

All right, Todd? Do you want to This is Todd? This is not This is not a video to Odd. This is this is actual audio four on fourth.

And twenty to give Todd the championship last year with a thirty twenty two and one record, beating Gilly thirty twenty three by a half a game. And I bring it up only because Fess here with us, and he told me that the Texans would tank in the last week.

Wasn't wait a minute. Wasn't there controversy surrounding that? Last? Last year you did not win, there was controversy surrounding it. Could you explain.

Why you created punt? No?

I didn't create any controversy. There was controversy. You didn't win it out right, stop it already.

I went thirty twenty two and one to thirty and twenty three.

No, there was controversy. I have to go back and listen now because you're not being forthright about it. Wasn't there controversial actor?

No, you can go back and listen. I won on that play on the fourth and twenty play. If you remember, I'm want.

To say, no, but whatever I'm going to say, you didn't.

Remember I did that. Remember I did the announcers boys that you guys were making fun of me because it was ridiculous.

She did it because you did. Andre. Where is an old Southern gentleman? That's right. I forgot the other staple of the show this year, new to the Meg Pod. He's been a guest before. It is Fox Sports is Will Hill. Everybody? How you doing Will.

Boys? I'm honored, I'm excited to be on.

I just hope Gil let's Todd talk I mean, you could say Todd interrupts, but Gill just doesn't give him the opportunity to talk.

So hopefully that happens this year. I'm excited football is back. Let's go.

Oh man tell us so, by the way, on Fox, what are you doing exactly with the Bear?

Yeah, that's gonna be part of Bear Bets podcast. First episode aired last Thursday. I'm part of a roundtable with the Bear, Jeff Schwartz, former NFL offensive lineman who you've had on this podcast, and Sammy p and of course myself. So it should be fun. They drop usually Thursday morning sometimes, so look for that this week.

Jeff Schwartz big fan of Todd's as well. We established that what he was on here and we always have, of course the the makeabout for met as we always have a rotating guest each and every year.

Like that, I challenged him on the Steelers offensive line.

Sorry, rotating guess Week one is the only back to back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. One of the smartest betters we know, a former actuary who uses his math prowess to aggressively get the best of every number. Steve Zick everybody.

How you doing, man? You forgot that you buried the league.

Todd, We'll get there. Could you just stop? Really, this is a bad start.

Really, well not for those who bet over six and a half interruptions, because those guys are off to a good start here on the prop betting market.

Oh my god, for undred to be here, thank you, thank you, thank you for doing it. We'll have you on again later this year as well. But you went how much? How much do you weigh right now?

Two oh two? But good news.

Yeah.

When I weighed myself this morning, I was above two hundred. Yeah, and that means I'm not allowed to eat until the sun goes down.

It's like you really hold to that. You just fast.

Yeah, that's like it's like the stop gap. I cannot go above two hundred. Todd ridiculed the method.

Ridiculed it. Todd. The the ozempic or whatever Todd is taking is it's not working for him. Well, he's doing well the last week though.

Yeah, I'm not no empic. After I gained back all the weight like a loser, I went on Monjaro and it's slowed. I've lost about fifteen twenty pounds, but I'm not doing well?

All right, could you tell the people what text you received before this show?

Yeah, so I got text from our panel.

Here.

This is from Todd give me two or three week one NFL points. No, please, no, thank you, just give up to me.

Ye oh okay, Stevie, if that's the game, we're gonna pay ahead it.

Will it Will say, I'm just answering the questions you just answered. The question.

Will said, what is your first Megapod pick? Mike, I need to know?

I responded, like in the Wonka movie, that would be cheating well, to which he responded, Oh, it's not cheating.

Can you give me your picks?

This is serious business, people, Come on, this.

Is time like hearing what Steve has to say, so then I can shoot it down. Like last year he said, the Texans are gonna the Textans are going to uh, they're gonna tank in the last game of the season. But I said, no, they're not fourth and twenty. It's a touchdown thirty two, thirty one. Thank you?

Oh? Can we can we we establish one thing before we start the show, because there's a lot of people who are on gambling Twitter. Are you and Brad Power's friends? Are you enemies. What's the story with that?

It kind of depends upon the day, okay, and who and who got them the best of the other, you know, on the last game. By the way, powers like lean to Clemson last night. I didn't see it myself.

I was on Duke.

Clemson should have had twenty more points.

If you cashed with the under, you probably were a little bit four to Todd. Todd and I like the third quarter under. That was an easy one.

I had the second half under, which is ridiculous that that got home, But so did I. But I will say this about Steve Feszick, who not only is a is a really good better. And I hope you don't take this and I said this to you before. I hope you don't take this with a fence. I say it with such envy. You are also the luckiest better I've ever And I mean this, if something has a chance to go your way, Todd, back me up on this somehow. What's the word you use? Luckbox? Stevie, luckbox, Steve Stevie.

I call him Stevie luckbox. He is he is the lucky I mean, now, maybe it hasn't been his whole life, but he's on a run right now, where his fortuitiveness. For example, last night the third quarter under which we had absolutely no chance of covering and somehow did okay.

So people know the format of this show and I want to get into it. The format is, by the way, just to remind myself while I remind everybody, three best bets of the week. Sides are totals teaser of the week. We're talking about a two team six pointer. If you want to give us or five or play you can, that's optional. And then of course at the end, which big favor is most likely lose? Out right? Which game you want no part of in terms of the spread?

You know, any one season, there's a whole lot of luck involved with all this. So if you tell me, like a major contest and there's ten thousand people in it, well, whoever wins, that's gotta be like one of the best betters in the world. Well not so much. You know, Jamie gold won. You know, the main event and Dodge rain drops for seven days. You know Moneymaker, who's a

How many?

Four?

Yeah?

That's uh, that's that's running good.

Yeah, running good. By the way, about that poker thing, this is true story. My dad's cousin's kid finished third once year one year in World Series. Wow, so it is. And he's completely not a poker player, right and finish third? Look it up, ben VENISTI was the last Ben VENISTI Oh okay. So Will Todd's same question to you. Is there anything you all want to say before week one or you just want to dive into the format. What do you want to do? Will?

Yeah, I would say Division dogs week one. I mean, first of all, I just hate laying a number really anytime in the NFL. But week one, you made the point yeah, we think we know stuff, but Colorado TC you perfect example. We don't know as much as we think we know. So be careful laying points, which is gonna get contradicted by some of my picks. But Week one traditionally good for the dog, especially division dogs at home.

God, I mean.

To that end, I would have had the second place pick in the brackets tortament NCAA Tournament challenge over with thousands of people for a million dollars in the DraftKings. So you know you called my picks for KACTA when I said San Diego State versus Yukon, and that's what ended up happening in I will say, Will, if you guys don't listen to this, guys, if you guys don't listen to the NCAA Tournament podcast that Gilly does, you

That NCAA podcast might have been the most accurate insane betting and display ever. Will did have FAU in the final four. Todd had San Diego State, and I know Todd tells stories a certain way, which always cast dispersions on others, particularly me. But what did I say to you multiple times during that podcast? Multiple times?

Right?

And your entry put in your damn entry the big fool and you didn't and it almost cost you a million dollar?

Would you say big? Or you're referring to how how large a folly is or how large he is as a person.

I'll leave that up to the listener.

All right, all right, you know what's funny. I live in Connecticut.

Fau was a split second away from winning the national championship in Connectic because Connecticut teams don't count in that pool. So a tenth of a second left, San Diego State hit a shot which I didn't bet him win a national title. So if they won that game, I probably would have been uh, would have been kicking myself. But a little little uh nugget there, just based on the rules, Fau was that close to being declared the champion, at least for Connecticut.

Pon. How often do you go back and watch the Elite eight game where Fau gets into the final four?

Now, don't I don't relive the past? Maybe three four times a week?

Time? Sure, all right, let's do this week one of the NFL, and again this is the caveat of Look, even survivor pools are hard. Week one. We know stuff to a degree, but there's some stuff we always learn every Week one. Oh my god, we had it so wrong about this team, but these all count. Still A Todd is still bragging about, apparently as half game win over me last year, which apparently is under protest.

First of all, fifty three games is a gigantic sample size. It's almost like thousands of games, thirty twenty two one. It's unbelievable, not quite, but.

You know, in order to tell whether someone's actually a winner, and this is like just fooled by randomness type of things, you really need like five thousand trials, right, It is remarkable how like like Don Schwstner wrote a book Blackjack Attack, and he like shows players ABC and D and they play for like three months in their like one hundred thousand hands they played and player as getting burnt, cared, crunched, and player Sea's kicking butt and he's like, it explains

They both played perfectly play Arry got unlucky. It really is true though, and even even someonely yourself he won back to back. But we've had others like James Salinas Las Vegas, Chris who does well in multiple contests. Two years is not enough, not even close to the number you decided, right, So it's someone's good. Someone is gonna run good in these contests. Hopefully it's you listening right now.

You know, let's go with the total. And this is more of a gut field than anything else. That Eagles at Patriots. We're gonna go under forty five. I don't want to get in trouble with the accountants. Todd, you're the numbers guy. That's that's readily available, right.

That was already one of my picks.

Yeah, shocker, I share. I want to disclose. I share my plays with Todd.

Yeah, you know before I guess it's not I don't know, Stevie, I guess it's not written down right here before you said anything thing.

I sent it to you and chewing the court stenographer of the Megapod also court thief of the.

This is guy like in the movie Oh God, like like that. The stenographer is like nothing George Burne said, is like it is recorded here.

He said he couldn't be hurt. He couldn't be recorded. I just think that.

I'll forget to send my in game college basketball.

That's two for those counting on interruptions.

So so, I just think Patriots aren't going to score much against the Eagles. The Eagles had the super Bowl hangover. They didn't play their starters in preseason, which depressed scoring for the offense. There was a tweet by Cleve Ta that was outstanding about teams that don't play their their starting quarterback. Yeah, the offenses like struggle there in terms of I think like five points less than what their team total is.

So if the Eagles are going to score lesson they're supposed to do.

And I don't think the Patriots are going to score a lot, and we've got a toll that's still above average at forty five. This has a twenty three to twenty scrum look to it.

I'll go under the forty five, all right.

Under forty five on the Patriots and the Eagles, William Wilson, Hillson, everybody.

The reason I asked Fez for his first pick, I was very certain he was going to take this wht. I'm happy he didn't give me Miami plus three. If you're gonna tell me, just hey, out of the thirty two teams, pick two teams that are as even as it gets. I would pick offensive Charger. I think they're just dead even teams. Chargers have a very slight uh snim to none home field advantage, travel you don't worry about this time of the year. So I just don't

You're gonna give me the three, I'll take it.

This open Chargers pick at Chargers pick. Look, I think I have some Chargers pick in my account. I lean to that side, but three points in terms of the adjustment, I don't understand. I know Miami's got some injuries and Ramsey and the offensive lineman, but I will take the points here and let me let me put fes to work here just quickly, Fez, if you can get three and a half minus one twenty, what is a profit?

All right, So the line is currently a three, So if you can get three and a half, you're gonna cast fifty five percent because literally, if three is the correct line, which I'm gonna do for this middling, it's gonna you're gonna go forty five to ten and forty five if you lay three or take three. So if you take three and a half, you win with that if it lands on three, so you're gonna win fifty five percent of the time. If you're playing plus three and a half LA dollar twenty, that's a break even

It's like a point five percent edge on the middle.

That's what you wanted, will.

Yeah, I was just curious because I'm seeing, like again, there's some three and a half minus twenty popping up, and there's some minus one sixty charges on the money line. That's not quite close enough, but I mean there's there comes a point here where if you can just shop around and be good at chopping.

It's intriguing to.

Just play the middle because to me, this has like twenty seven to twenty four charges written all over.

The problem with the minus one sixty is that you can play the minus three minus one ten even and that's and that's superior bet. So so trying to get at the money line is going to be an inferior bet. And by the way, laying three and taking three and a half is approximately break even. But you know you're paying extra big on the three and a half, so that won't that won't fly.

So you took the dolphins there will plus three? Is that the bet?

Dolph Dolphins plus three.

Dolphins plus three, all right, Todd Todd is the official lines keeper as well. What do you got, Todd?

What's your first By the way, that's an interesting conversation, you guys just having. Now, let's say there was nine minutes left in the game and you could get the three and a half versus a three and the game was like right near those numbers or the minus one sixty at that point, would you have would it be more worthwhile because there's so many less outcomes that could happen, and landing you know where it you know, in the middle, there is obviously a lot more likely Steve, your thoughts.

It all depends, but in general, yes, So, I mean, if the game's tied, honor off, the three is probably gonna be worth sixty five cents at least, if not more. If if the Chargers are head by two, it's pretty worthless. Well, it's not worthless, but it depends. But yes, direction with your spot on right.

Okay, that was just a question. Okay, my first pick was also, Even though Steve's going to say that I stole it from I didn't. I just I had this written down. I didn't know you even gave it to me in June. But the point is is I'll take the Patriots. Not for the reasons that he stated about, you know, teams that don't play the first string and all that nonsense, but great job, cleeve Ta. I'm gonna

All right, all right, I am going into that game and I am countering what my friend doctor Bob has. Doctor Bob's one NFL play that he has, he's on the Patriots. I'm going opo ooh, I'm taking the Eagles and I'm laying before. I don't quite get it. I really don't. I have a feeling that by the second quarter, everyone in their heads will say to themselves, oh my god, this team's the fucking greatest team in the whole league. And what have we been talking ourselves out of offseason? Now?

You know we do that, we do the round raw and you go second? Do you go first? Oh?

I do go second. Okay, I'm gonna go with the Dallas Cowboys on this is awful that I'm doing road favorites here. It's not the way to riches. But again, week one, I'm not gonna help think myself here Sunday night taking the Cowboys. What is that three three consensus?

I'd see it leaking, but I would say there's a lot of threes left. Steve, what do you think?

Yeah, I think there's a lot of threes.

It's three point two five. You could go, you could take you three or take three and a half, which is great game.

We'll give you the minus three.

Yeah, then I'm laying the three. My opinion on the Giants, My one of my big season long bets is the Giants alternate season win total under. I know Brian Dable got the Coach of the Year, I think I think it was a fagazy coach of the year where he got the credit for a lot of really timely, high leverage performance by the Giants, both offensively and defensively, and especially when you look at third and fourth downs versus first and second downs. They sustained that for a long time.

If somebody takes a pick, is that off the board? Is that?

No? No, no, no, no no. Todd makes a living. Todd makes a living duplicating everybody.

That's hysterical is then show you all? And I do not have many of other people's picks. In fact, many people have.

I really Is that right? Well, maybe you shouldn't tell stories and make other people seem to be dumb in your stories when they're trying to help you out. All right, Todd, what's your pick?

My second pick is going to be Look, obviously these numbers have been hammered into submit over many months by people like Fezik and all that stuff's in there. Now you have to find some gut, you know, feel kind of thing where you can say, look, maybe the experts are wrong, similar to what Gilly just said, where he thought that, you know, maybe there's just too much you know, talking.

So anyway, fans, yeah, all.

The smarty Pants like to go into group thing. But so what I'm going to do is here, I'm just going to do something based on feel, and that is I'd like to take the Chicago Bears. I believe they're laying one point. I actually have them plus nine in my pocket from when they first came out, you know, all those I'm being like one of those touts on Twitter where there's oh I got that line when it first came out at plus nine and now they're down the minus one. So I've got ten points of value there.

Not Bears.

Okay, will number two.

Usually the worst team is not as bad as we think. I think the Cardinals break that rule. I will go Washington.

I'll lay the seven renewed optimism with that home field. You might get a little bit of a home field that's been a sort of a you know, disinterested crowd in recent years. Now with Snyder gone a little more enthusiasm. I think this Arizona team is just not a professional team.

They're bad on both sides of the ball.

Whoever starts at quarterback, whether it's Dobbs or Claytonton, is probably gonna get hurt behind that offensive line. I'll lay it with Washington. Usually don't like laying a touchdown, especially in Week one.

I'll break the.

Rules here la with the Commanders.

If ever there was a must win situation, it's the Commodes going up against the Cardinals. And let me just say this, also because it's September, become normalized to it, but the single greatest story of the offseason Daniel Snyder no longer the owner of this team. I cannot express you how much this means to so many of us, ding dong, which is dead absolutely. In fact, I'll tell you how much it is. I beat Todd WISHNEVN tennis. This is a true story. He had beaten me roughly

I want to know what the two teamer gil Anti correlated, parlay gil beating Todd and then Todd beating Ben Wilson.

Paid it's got to be on the straps. You didn't beat Todd, You didn't beat Ben Wilson, did you?

Yeah? I beat him, Yeah, we played. Yeah, I beat him in a set last year. And when I was real thin.

Oh okay, wow, he limped off with an injury right after.

Uh No, but.

It was it was very very competitive when I was thin. It was very very competitive to me. He was still better than me.

Yeah, Ben versus Todd at two fifteen is like me versus Todd at three hundred.

I mean I would have laid ninety nine.

I would have laid eighty to make a dollar, just like Purdue with But thanks Ben Wilson. Another Purdue game for me.

Yeah, what's by the way, Billy did get that the word book. Hilly got the win after three hundred and forty consecutive losses. But since then he's oh and eleven.

Lewis humiliating loss.

No, no, no, let me just say this.

We then we win, even though he's St. Louis.

We went to Saint in.

Saint Louis, Jeff Jeff Pearl's wedding, he was very close again to get in his second wish.

Yeah, but I believe, which is nineteen. He's going to stop talking at some point, which is why I told Todd that it wasn't the victory that gave me coffie. It was in Saint Louis where I stared into his eyes and I knew it was like Ali after the thrill in Manila, he beat Frasier, but he knew if you look into his eyes, he knew it was over that's wish nip ever, the same after ever, the same man. Yeah, yeah, Stevie, you're number two.

I'm number two.

I'm going to go or two end your three, all right, I'm gonna go oppo with Todd. I'm gonna take the Green Bay Packers plus one. Uh, you know, the pack you go. You know it's interesting Todd keeps talking about a home field advantage, and he's right. You know, the Packers are going to have one in Chicago. Anyone who's attended this game. I know the population is a lot bigger in Chicago that is in Green Bay. But I think it's easier for the Packers fans to get like

I have the Bears plus nine, Steve, you weren't listening. I have the Bears plus nine in the bucket.

I don't know if I said this on this show. Maybe I did in the preview with the NFL preview with Matt and Kelly from last week, but I've said it a million times on a numbers game. Why are you so convinced Jordan Love's gonna suck, Todd? He's been under the same coordinator, in the same coach for like three years under tutelage. He may be good. You don't know.

Maybe does he need to be good? Does he needs to be capable?

Just needs to be capable. Just don't turn the all over. He could be very good.

We last time, last time we were off Oh it was thirty two thirty one Texans on fourth and twenty.

When they were.

Thinking, that's that's a high yeah, a high probability of success fourth and twenty with that offense.

So you were you had the right side there?

What's your number three?

Number three?

I'm going to go and Todd's going to break into cheering the Pittsburgh Steelers catching two?

What What the heck am I doing?

I had all summer to play Pittsburgh plus three and now am I trying to donk off my money?

Taken two and a bad number? No, because I.

Think half, Stevie, you deserve it.

Could have half, all right, I'll take it. I tell you what, Grab the two and a half now because it won't be there come Sunday. What's changed during the summer? Well, Bosa, he's kind of important. Is he going to play? Just you know they they're about to sign him again, still haven't signed him?

Is he going to be ready?

He's worth a point on defense and non quarterbacks are rarely worth a point, but he truly is their best defender and Kittles banged up, you know, so one of the most important offensive guys. He's not as import because they've got so many different weapons, you know, with Debo and with Semac and the like.

But I mean he's still important to the line.

And you look at no team has looked better in pre season than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Clicking in all cylinders. They're not just beaten up on second stringers either, like in the Buffalo game. Yeah, blankets fourteen to nothing. Steelers have just drilled three straight teams. I think it should be pick them. San France starts slow last year when they lost in the Monsoon to the Bears, one of three wins for the Bears, so you give me the points. I'm not sure that San France should even be favored.

I like it. William.

My first question is if you're gonna take the Stillers don at Akroscher Stadium. Dean's got a parking pass into the casino, because there's no way in hell you're gonna be able to park within fourteen miles of that stadium down there in Week one with Canny Pickett. So if Yen's better not check your email right now you don at a Rivers casino and find out whether you got a card. That'll a lie YenS to park in a normal fashion. Otherwise, I don't know how you're getting to the game.

If you're seven stars, you can park right at the seven Stars. Ballet Todd down Air, Caesars.

The best is down Air.

There's no doubt when we're in Perman he's we're not thinking about Caesar's palless and that that's some Vegas nonsense.

Will what do you get from a competitive standpoint, I would like to take Dallas minus the three. I feel like from a content standpoint it's a little boring because I had the same picks and handicaps. So I will go in a different direction here. I'll take Cleveland plus two and a half. If you look at Cincy, it's interesting. There's a perception that they're this dominant team because you went to a Super Bowl a couple of years ago,

I'm gonna go to the New York Giants football game and I am gonna go under the forty seven in that ball game. The games last year were not high scoring games. The final score in one of them was twenty eight to twenty. One of them was with a total backdoor touchdown after the Cowboys scored with like two minutes to go in a ridiculous game that gives should never run would.

You say on Thanksgiving? I remember it all too well. That was Yeah, what effect that game should have?

Totals? That game should have never gone over. The first game I believe was twenty three sixteenth. Look the Dallas Cowboys and the reason they were good last year. The defense was very good. It wasn't about that. It was about those crazy rushers coming off the edge. And just dominating people from a defensive from the defensive side of the football, and I think they're going to be smart enough to realize we've got to play defense. It's not like the New York Giants have a strong offense. Tame

You know, this is the first time I think I've ever heard somebody like cite a twenty eight to twenty prior from the year before as evidence that the game is going to go under forty seven.

Kudos Tode the back there was a touchdown with two minutes to go, and then at backdoor touchdown, Stevie, thank you very much. You have to read inside the box score. Well, it's not just about the final score, it's how they get to that.

Thank you that well that the audience wants to know. You need to explain that to them. He just cited the final score.

I will here that that back door touchdown was enhanced because of I think it was a bogus roughing the passer call.

Giants never would have scored too, So that was Todd's wright.

Excellent Todd, I forgot about bogus roughing the passer penalties.

Oh terrible, tackling the defense fifty.

If Stevie had the over luck box, Stevie would have won that one. He probably did have the over in that game with some back door.

Do you think you and I are lucky? You should see what I do.

With crack Man. But by the way, let me just praise Todd Wishneff for his for his amazing memory and recall on some of these things. So last last night we were betting a few things. Obviously we all had like different variations of the under in that Clemson game, which we luck boxed our way to victory. But one of the plays in that game was this dead ball penalty called on Duke on a fourth down for Clemson where club Nick slid right before the sticks and then

But I just you know, they say if you watch a football game or a baseball game closely enough. My father told me this, Yeah, you will see something that you had never seen your entire life. Dead And my dad said this, So example, one time in Cleveland, there's a high fly ball to deep left and it bounced over the Green Monster. So it's a ground rule double over a twenty one foot high fence because.

It had just enough. Really, yes, do you think it would be impossible? Yeah?

And I saw like a throw to the plate and hit the rosen bag on the pitching mound, you know. So just things like if you watch it, Craig like, I've never seen that before.

Yeah.

And when we were I was at the game with my father, Wendell Statt was like observing and there's two guys in the in the on deck circle and one of the crowd one of the fans said, hey, Wendell.

Statt, they're not allowed to do that.

They got two guys in the on deck circle and he walked over and he said, you got to go to the dugout.

Wow.

So if you look closely enough, you'll see you'll see something never happened.

Before the Do you remember the Giants game? I saw this yesterday where the one where but where Jake Peev was on the mound and he wasn't paying attention, and Buster Posey didn't see that he wasn't paying attention and threw the ball back to him and Peevee just happened to have his glove here though. Yeah, that was awesome. That was awesome. It's like Chris Parley, can I just say.

That that rule needs to be changed because if you're in the middle of the play, granted, the guy's knee was down in a split second later the guy blasted his head open. Same thing with the Eric Weddo play. It's part of the play. It's not a dead ballfoul dead ball means it's really a dead ball. We're running back to the huddle. When somebody smashes somebody, you know in the in the seats or something, or takes a shot at somebody. That's what a dead ball foul should be.

So after you have a pick six and the guy scores a nanosecond after he crosses the goal line, if you have someone like what like clothesline on defense the offensive guy, the touchdown doesn't count them because it's close enough.

Seems inconsistent to me.

That's a great question. Actually, that's a great point by Stevie. What happens if that happens now, if a guy, Yeah, if a guy gets a touchdown and a guy blast them a half a second, what that's not That's not gonna that's gonna be a touchdown.

I believe.

So it's not gonna be a touchdown.

It is might be the same this same concept that basically the play, the play is over, point one seconds goes by, and now it's got to be an after the place.

What's the inconsistency.

I'm trying to figure out what Todd's rationale saying it should still count.

What point do we draw the line?

Is it like one point one seconds, is it zero point six seconds, or is it zero point one second?

Well, I don't think there's an inconsistency. So what you're saying, Todd makes sense on the service where it's like it's dead as far as the play is concerned, But the actions in the play and the position at the time of the of the hit are very much live basically, right. That's the distinction to me. The better they make judgment, to me that they make judgment. Yeah, the better argument is what are you trying to do with targeting penalties

Great. I just think the dead ball should be defined as after the action of the play is over and the refs can make a judgment calle, just like they make a judgment call on holding what it needs to have the play being over. Now, Okay, everyone jumps up and they start punching each other. That's a dead file. But okay, whatever.

Anyway, I was just trying to Praisey for remembering that because I thought that was awesome.

Thank you anyway, I appreciate it.

Can I give my baseball.

You'll never see it again the anniversary today, I think twenty five years ago, so you never see this again.

With the rules, I.

Think it was Astro's padres two outs, two strikes, ninth inning. The catcher signals for an intentional walk sneaks back behind the plate and the pitcher buzzes in a fastball for a strike three game over.

I retweeted it, Oh wow, that's amazing. Yeah, I never see that again.

Where are we?

It is my last over seven and over seven and a half and have six homers head and it goes under. Will never happen?

Oh that was that was amazing. That was the worst beat ever in baseball? Yeah? What was it? Eight to seven? And how it was? All?

So?

The overrunder was seven and a half? I had the over six home runs were oh.

Yeah, and then four to three. That's right, all solo Jimmy Jackson, Okay, I am. I am with Steve. I hate to duplicate, but I thought I was gonna be the smarty pants and he beat me to it. I like the Steelers, and this is more of a Malcolm Gladwell blink thing or how many times do we remember steal the Steelers as dogs winning an opening game on like some special teams nonsense, or just the fact that TJ. Watt made an amazing play. That's the thing with the Steelers.

By the way, we didn't do we didn't do our last year. In the beginning, we talked a little bit about in game Do we want to just maybe talk about some general in game strategy maybe for a minute or two.

Well, it sounds like you'd like to what would you like to say? Share with her?

Or we don't have to it's your show.

Well no, usually, you know, I know that is usually what we do is we talk about something that happened the previous week.

But it's week one, right, But I want to talk about a gentle thing, please do, please do. So here's a little general thing. A generalisiming in the National Football League very often late in football games and a fourteen point game, a team is losing by fourteen, they're coming down for the back door. So let's say the score, for instance, is twenty eight to fourteen. That's forty two.

On this, sure, And obviously the jet the dead Nuts play is to bet that the game will land, even dead nuts, because whether they score the touchdown or not, it's going to land even because the word is out your union buddies are talking when you're down fourteen to score a touchdown, and go for two. The Eagles pioneered this. It's amazing. It took the NFL thirty years to figure this out. The quick math that take me to ten seconds. The assumptions are, you're down fourteen, you're going to get

It's a very easy mathematical tree, and inevitably, when it happens again, people will go crazy on Twitter. But let me just ask you, because you just what you said sort of gave the indication that you assume most of these teams are on board with this. What percentage of teams do you actually think are on board with this?

Eighty percent of the NFL forty forty percent of the College for yeah, the word the words gone.

You think it's gonna Wait a minute, hold on, you guys think eighty percent of NFL teams eighty percent? So what's that twenty six teams out of thirty two whatever it is that they would down fourteen would score and go for two. I don't buy that.

The entire analytics team should be fired immediately if they don't, because it's already been solved.

I agree with that, but I do not for one second believe it's eighty percent. So will you at least?

I bet I'll go ahead and lay minus three fifty that that that on every occurrence that happens in the with with eight minutes to go or less, that that the teams will go for two in that situation.

Will do you see it that way as well. Do you think it's that many would have too? I would have set old school that.

Yeah, I think that was Deely. It's interesting.

Florida did it twenty one Florida Thursday night against you tak down twenty one, scored a touchdown, went for two and got it, which that's an unusual one.

I don't remember seeing that one.

That is the proper call. Also, by the way, yeah, same same concept.

But that's I'm shocked that you guys are so sure it's eighty percent. I don't buy that at all.

Like for me, it's not eighty, but it's definitely over.

Four and a half. If I could be wrong, it could be seventy.

The word is out, the word is out of this, and they're all doing it and they don't want to look dumb because the other smart teams are doing it.

Are they all doing it? Like? I must have missed this.

This is a line from from Wall Street the movie where we're I don't know what to make of it, Gordon, everybody's going for two when they're down eight.

I I mean usually when we talk. I mean what I remember is when I come in and do guessing lines on Monday morning. Usually My line is is, now we have coaches who don't even know what is analytically correct or not, and they do or they do they do stuff that only is when it doesn't work. Oh that was analytics. When it does work, Oh it wasn't analytics.

By the way, the Steelers are the team that I don't think is going to go for two down eight, despite the fact that oftentimes they go for two after their first touchdowns.

Exactly right, Washington. I don't believe Ron Rivera is going for two. There's no chance unless he.

Doesn't riverboat down fourteen. He only riverboats down ten.

Is Belichick a go for two guy? Because I don't even know if he I don't even know if he is.

Scenarios, But this is the great We should chart this. We should chart this.

We should win the meg Yeah, we.

Should say Okay, last week it happened, you know, five times, here's what to happen. I think it's very very interesting, and I think it's definitely over fifty percent.

Now to be fair.

To be fair, if you're a ten point favorite, you shouldn't go for two because your chance of winning an overtime is greater than sixty two and a half percent.

So now you're asking for them to compete.

To understand, I understand, so put put everything in, But I just wanted to disclube it doesn't make sense.

That's interesting, but the original point, Steve, do you agree that people have to be more aware of the end game of permutations there? Because you know you're gonna have that scenario with the six and a half A lot of times those books will hang the.

Forty eight a half eight, and then you inevitably you'll hear the light bears like why are they going for two? Like they haven't watched a football game. And you know, I will say this about the coaches, like we watch way more you know, football than they do. We watch the end game of every game. They have no idea. I mean, they got like one hundred thousand things.

On their plate. They don't have time to watch any of these other games.

I mean, guessing lines is nothing, but like I mean, besides the guessing of the lines, those recaps are nothing but one of these coaches doing like over and over again. So I mean, I'm.

Shocked at announcers. Oh, I can't believe they're going for it here fourth and eight. It's like they're not going for it. It's the end of the first half. They're pretending to get the clock to run before they punt.

Well, Will and I were talking about I mean, Chris Valor usually does the stuff, but we were watching the first college football game and there was a fumble forward and he was just he seemed incredulous, like he was like, oh, they get the first down. I was like, you know, the ball goes back to where he was like his simple stuff. You're like, Wow, everybody's not in mid season forms.

So I don't about argue that people. I'm sorry, go ahead.

Well no, I was gonna say about you masked New Mexico that opening week zero Saturday. New Mexico scores to make it a ten point game four and a half minutes left the on site kick, and I forget who the announcer was, Oh, this is way too early.

You can't do that. I mean, its way too early. It's four minutes after the game, you're down by ten points.

You need the ball, jeezy when it went in doubt. Whenever it's a close call, always be aggressive if you don't know what to do.

It's rarely wrong to go for it on fourth down and it's rarely wrong to go for two when in doubt.

I'm gonna go under on eighty percent. But that but that is a great it's a great in game point that you make, Todd. And the other one that I would bring up is, you know, the most basic of all is the whole two for one thing, right, Like I think if we gave just one one in game point that would be obvious to men, right, but maybe not to others. Is know who's getting the ball first in the second half, and if there is.

Especially for the end of third QUARTERBT, the end of third QUARTERBT, that's available with books now if you know who's sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you, Gilly, but I'm very second about that a third QUARTERBT, if there's three minutes to go and one team has the ball. By the way, the NFL teams are much smarter about making sure they get the last possession. In the old days, they would rush down score with forty seven seconds off, the other team would get a field goal. Teams are

And pursuit to what Gilly said though, right after the games kickoff, the first thing I do is I take bike a green highlighter and I green every NFL the get starts with the ball because that way, I know gets.

In the second half.

And if you're betting live NBA, and I know this is difficult. Whoever wins the tip gets the ball to start the fourth quarter, they start with the first and the fourth quarter. And you could say that's trivial. No, it's worth half a point, half a points a lot. You know, be betting live late in the third quarter.

See now, I do agree with you guys that that thing about the end of the first half and figuring out the timing that eighty percent of teams get that. Now, like Bill Belichick was the master at that right maximizing possessions and minimizing the opponents. I do agree that most of the league is on board with that, but that fourteen to eight to six thing, I don't believe it's eighty percent yet. I think I think it will really closer.

You believe it's over fifty.

I believe it's fifty. I'm not even gonna say over.

It's past the tipping point.

It's kind of like when when you win the coin toss, you're supposed to defer, And for years Belichick was like the first guy to do it every time, and then word got out where half the half the league started to defer, and then like two years later, everybody deferred because the memo got out. And I believe the memo has gotten out on the fourteen to eight to say.

Okay, can we remember it more when peams go for two because it didn't happen for so long that it sticks in our brain, like when keeams kick the extra point. It doesn't really register when teams go for it.

What we notice it more? That's what I think. I think it's fifty to fifty.

Yeah, okay, teaser of the week. Is that what we do next? I believe it's teaser of the week two we're two teams six point teaser. Long teaser legs are not plentiful, but there are a few. Pittsburgh obviously leaps off the page as a possible long teaser leg two and a half through the three and the seven. There are others as well, including the Cleveland Browns, who are two and a half point dogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. Those are the two most glaring ones right off the top.

Quite qualify that mostly ones mostly.

Yeah again, wong teaser legs, and I know Stevie will back me up on this. Totals matter here on long legs. Stanford Long real name John Ferguson, lived in San Diego, wrote the book on Sports Betting so many years ago. He identified the three most positive ev teaser legs home and road dogs of between one and a half and two and a half that you would tease through the three and the seven. And a home favorite of between seven and a half eight and a half that we

Good summary, good good summing.

Check your rules at the books, because yeah, a lot of them have changed to some well like circle Now is mius one thirty?

All right?

South points mius one thirty. God can't win playing teasers mius one thirty. So let me do the math here. So, if you're laying minus one twenty on a six point teaser each leg, you're essentially laying minus two eighty, all right, I know that sounds like that's crazy. So if you took if you took two eighty and you wagered it on your first leg of the teaser and it covers, that's like winning one hundred. Now you're taking three eighty

The math isn't going to work out.

Stephen Vegas did this for us on a numbers game this morning. This is the Vegas Books stations in South Point minus one twenty five on six point teasers, bet MGM and Circum minus one thirty, Westgate and Boyd minus one forty Caesars who by the way, if you can get into the app in the first place, you're doing something special. Uh, they're They're not offering six point teasers right now. They're offering minus one thirty on six and a half, which is good, Which is good. Yeah, yeah.

And Caesar's Nevada. If you have a tie and a winner, or a tie and a loss, it gets greater to push. But if you do Caesar's in New Jersey, you lose. Oh it's a different rule at the same company.

BETMGM Nevada is also a refund on a tie and a loss, which again blows people's minds.

And so if you get the bad rules on the ties you have to always pick your number of points such that you can't land on an ineture to avoid that nasty rule.

And the theory behind the refund is because you can't drop a teaser to a one team tease.

That's right, right.

Okay, by the way, just let me just say this about the Caesars Nevada app. I'm not I said this on a numbers game this morning. I'm not trying to be an ass but if anybody from Caesar's Eric Bigiot Will Hill, somebody is listening, fix the app.

My god, it shouldn't be mandatory that every executive yes making six figures are higher.

Oh, this is so true.

It has to have an assignment where they have to be able to make ten basic bets. They have to be able to bet a teaser. They have to be able to bet a prop a season win. Right, you get where I'm going. Have to be able to buy try to buy app point and put each weight bet in for ten dollars each and make it a live bet.

Oh and you have to do it with like a game star arts in five minutes.

Go right, and believe me, if these executives actually bet on that app, they'd they'd be having some meetings with their IT people on it, which not be pretty one.

All right, Stevie, two team six point teasers.

All right, I'm going to vary a little bit from Wang and I very rarely do. And here's why. I feel strongly that the Washington Arizona line will either stay at seven or go up.

All right. It's also a low total.

I like that with teasing, So I am gonna use the Washington commander, the much despised Washington Commanders against an Arizona team. People are already talking about this team's gonna go winless. Well, if they go winless, probably gonna win that leg.

Of the teasers.

I'm gonna obviously put it in with Pittsburgh because if I like them plus two and a half, I'm gonna like them plus eight and a half. One caveat I want to give to everyone. I firmly believe with Survivor, your optimal play week one is to play Washington. All right, So if you're gonna play Washington and your Survivor picks recognize you're already got some exposure on the same bet basically here. So if you're gonna enter Survivor five times, maybe don't go crazy teasing.

I mentioned that this morning on the show, which is like, you're gonna have so many we forget about the NFLCAS. You have so many competing interests at the same time, or they're all so aligned you're terrified that they're all gonna blow up.

And it probably doesn't matter that much we have one. But as you go deeper, if you're in Survivor by the time you get the week ten, you know, don't shove all in with with If you have fifty thousand in Survivor equity, you don't have to tease that same team across the board like.

In your normal Wong teasers. But in this case, yeah, I'm going.

And the reason I shied away from the Jets and Science shied away from Cleveland I'm worried those games could go to three, so they'll no longer qualify me too.

Will I'm gonna go. I'll use Pittsburgh.

That game will probably be twenty three twenty somebody who wins, who knows who cares.

I'll take the eight and a half.

With Pittsburgh, and I'll use the j E. T S Jets, Jets, Jets my second leg up to eight.

And a half.

I just think this team is boy. Everyone says they're over hyped. I kind of think they're underrated. You look at their team last year. I mean, they were just so good in so many different spots, with really probably the worst quarterback play in the entire leagues. To give me the eight and half of the Jets, the eight and half with the stillers.

All right, will you're a Jets guy? First three first six games before the buye Home Buffalo act? But oh yeah, that's right you are. I'm sorry, home Buffalo at Dallas home, New England home, Kansas City at Denver home Philly. You're a Mets fan or a Yankees fan. You're a Yankees fan.

Right, a Yankees fan, but a disgruntled different Yankees.

And at this point, okay, those six games I just mentioned for the Jets. You're the Jets front office, and I gave you truth. Serum. If I said, would you if I gave you three and three right now, would you take it? Your answer would be.

Yes, have too.

That's probably you know I'm gonna disagree.

Really all right, And here's why I think directionally, you're right that their expectations only two point eight wins so that this would be better than expectation. But it's kind of like trying to win a sports betting contest right where you hit we did take sixty percent through the first five weeks.

Oh yeah, and it's like yeah.

Of course, no, no, no, you actually have negative equity because you're because now your chance of winning and making the final table, making the top ten, that's gone down. So your chance of getting home field and actually playing for a championship as the Jets goes down. If you if you start the year even you know, six and four, three and three, very.

True, It's very true, Todd.

I'm just looking at those six games. Three and three is going to be a little rough, don't you think?

That's what I'm saying. That's why I asked the question, like, well that take three and three.

Yeah, three and three exceeds expectations. But but but but but their chance of winning the super Bowl would go down if they're three and three.

You understand, Yeah, I know.

I'm just I was just looking at the games and I'm thinking, who are the who they could for sure win. Nathaniel Hackett's no longer in Denver to not be able to get the play in before the play clock goes.

Try a ninety yard field goal with their field goal kicking mule.

We will never have we been? Have we been? Through the worst two pitches?

Here's my analytics question. Yeah, is it good to get the play in so that you don't get the the delay of game penalty before the play click goes out?

Let me check on that. Hold on, I'm told it is good to get to play in.

Yes, Oh, okay, because Nathaniel Hackett I think he's the offensive coordinator for some other team. So maybe you could look for a prop most delay of game penalties, I don't think they have that profit it would be a good one to get any Why.

Doesn't everyone just copy Belichick every time you have a fourth and one all right past midfield, immediately the quarterback doesn't even check what the coach. The coach just goes zebra, and zebra means everyone rushed the line of scrimmage and quarterbacks sneak and you get it every time. Yeah, you know when Now, if you hem a hall On line up for twenty five second and then do it, you get stacked.

Yes, the the the How about going in the shotgun? The best is to go in the shotgun on fourth and inches and blow it.

You know, we love that. The home crowd derisive countdown of the play clock with Hackett is still the greatest thing ever, like never again, never before. When we see that that was so great.

My season is going to be uh. The the uh commanders too. I just think that that the commander, well, I think Sam Howe is going to be good. I remember him from North Carolina and I really, I really think he's gonna be pretty good. And I'm gonna go with the insurs. I mean Injurs plus eight and a half in that, Yan's gotta think that our guy Tolman. By the way, everybody does the same teaser, Steve, before you you go crazy.

I can show you the sheet.

We're week after week. Everybody has the same teasers. So let's not go and create a federal case out of it in forty two indictments because I picked the same teasers you. If I would have gone first, you would have picked the same teaser for Okay, So so bottom lying here is the doors. They're good there. It's a home game. I already told you how how it's gonna be really hard to park down there, So don't even think you're getting home in time for the second game.

People are getting very nervous that laid miss one to eighty on the Miami Dolphins song the pot is almost over and.

Getting no Dolphins song.

It's getting dicey.

I haven't done that. I haven't done that. I haven't done that song in a while.

Oh good, no second verse there, Will Will's and I will okay, Well, in Will's head right now, the thought bubble and Will's like, oh my god, I signed up for a year of this. I have the same exact team.

Is what I got? You got? No?

I just want because it's on my mind, so it's probably on some of the listeners minds. I just want, like thirty seconds from everybody. Have you guys gotten your YouTube TV situation straight out? Because I haven't? And how does that affect the why betting?

Oh Will?

I have a great point on this, Gilly, Can I make my point about this, about this YouTube thing.

Of course, tod go ahead.

Here's my thing. I am not buying the damn YouTube to be four thousand minutes behind the clock. So how am I going to bet in game when the commercials over and I haven't even seen the end of what

Cocoa Golf for the match six love, five to two her ad against Elena Ostapenko.

Oh, Ostapenko just Withdrew. If I was on golf, That's exactly what would happen.

Ostapenko, who beat the world, the former world number one. That was very nice, Todd. I just want to say this because Stevie was looking. I wonder he was going to say the same thing as I was. Believe it or not, And I know you won't believe this. YouTube TV is closer to real time than Cox Cable is here in Las Vegas.

It's like fifty seconds.

It's two.

It's two players that I'm behind, not one, it's two.

I feel like YouTube TV. I was like, oh my god, I'm only one point behind in this tennis match, not two and a half.

And I'm meeting with these these providers are saying, well, we should be able to better whether the next play is going to be a passer or run. And it's like, how could the consumer ever be able to bet on the only time you can bet during TV timeouts, you're too far behind.

And even then, Steve, if you don't hurry on the TV timeout, if you're a minute behind, that's right, that means you only have a minute during the commercial. You don't even know that the game has already started again.

Yeah, it's it's tough, you know. It's almost like they don't want us betting.

That is the goal I firmly believe of a lot of people with their apps on live betting, the number one goal is don't allow the square ball that wants to just lose his money to you. It's right, do everything possible. The line changes, like from minus one ten to minus one to fifteen and he's betting five dollars a line has changed. It's like, well, every time the line changes and line has changed, like, you can't take a ten dollars bet, you know, within some to Lawrence, come on, that's.

One of my favorite Steve Fezik thing is the is like our number one rule is to not take money from these people, just like you were talking about like the cardinal rules on special teams that all these players don't abide by anymore.

So the other rules real quickly are that that I, if you're punting the ball, all right, the defense is attempting to rough the kicker and jump off side.

That's the first rule.

Yeah, all right, But should the punter get the ball off. Now the punting team their return team. Their goal is to knock the ball into the end zone. But the returning team the kicker. His job is to attempt to field the ball inside the five yard line and fumble it.

Always while while his teammates hold. If there is a return.

The inside the five, the inside the five catching the ball. It drives me so crazy. The guys standing on the ten yard line, what you moved backwards and don't catch it?

Yeah, and don't start on your own twenty five on a kickoff, go ahead and try to field it right on your goal line, kind of like be unclear whether you're in or out, and then return it to the twelve and then have cut back at the last second so you get a holding call.

So you can start on your sixth.

You're right too, that is the most egregious of all of them, because from the beginning, from the dawn of football time, that's been a fundamental right. You plant yourself on the ten and if the ball goes over your head, you let it go. How difficult is that? Apparently it's very doe.

And the other team's just gonna knock it into the end zone. Even if the punter a dead digging mortar, kicks it to the two. They'll do your job for you.

Because those guys, the Navy Seal team is running down on the pond coverage. They're going to run at the ball at five hundred miles an hour, and somehow.

My teasers the same. It's the Steelers up to the eight and a half. It is the Skinnies down to basically just having to beat the Commandos. Excellent than you appreciate it.

When Guild does it, he says, oh, great work. When I do it, oh you coughing? Well, fine, Stevie. And then don't copy any in game college basketball. In fact, I'll just give you the opposite side. How do you like them? Apples?

By the way, if there was ever a must win situation in week one. This is it if Washington Camp beat Arizona the tanking Cardinals. Good God about Survivor, because we're gonna if you want to give a Survivor play, you can a couple points about this one. I've said this on a numbers game many times. I believe there's

My first number was forty percent because more people will inevitably take Baltimore.

They're just because it's ten.

Survive in advance.

You know that's like, well, no one wants you know what you don't want to get you have if you have five entries, you don't want to shove with a seven point favorite and not put and not put that ten point You want to have some advance.

One should be in there. The game theory of it being, well, if you know forty are going to be on this one team, you certainly don't want to have all of yours on it.

Though, And there is the funky rule that I brought up with you about that you can you can enter Survivor up to Sunday, yeah, or Saturday night and the but you can.

Play the Thursday games.

So if should Kansas City, some people in heavily would just I'll just shove with Kansas City and put my ten entries in invite Lewis, I'll re enter like talking about the week one, yeah, Daniel and the Grano style I read buy so because that normally there wouldn't be that many people taking Kansas City is not an optimal player or anything close to. But because it's Thursday night,

So you if Kansasity wins, you will not play Survivor at all.

If I play, I have to recognize I'm paying like a three percent rake. I say, abe, I'll still play, but I'm playing. But I'm playing with.

The rake because it's because they're one notes.

It's almost like a free throw shooting contest where we all shoot like seventy five percent and I'm gonna have to play against ten percent of the group that made their first free throw.

Well, it is the way I would put it.

That's your mathematical brain kicking in. I think there's a lot of people who are going to play Detroit right hoping for the Detroit win and if they lose. If Kansas City wins, they're just going to re up and buy.

I'll put the over under and how many people played Detroit. If there's I would I would say six. You think it's that few that will play it down.

I'll go six. You want to go over under?

Go over?

Really?

Dinner?

Oh yeah, dinner, dinner, dinner? How many is like dinner? I'll just use my points, I'll just the other way.

There isn't there is. There is an example though, with when you play Horse against stevezi Gill and you're standing at about eighteen feet out and just banking endless bankers off of them. You can give them any advantage possible. You can give him a twenty five percent overlay. They're never going to beat you in Horse if you can endlessly hit bank shots from eighteen feet.

So for like two years I heard Todd tell me about what a star he was and how he was the Jewish Jordan. Yeah, And you know, for all this talk, I don't see it. So we play Horse and I don't like. I don't own a basketball, so I haven't shot like in twenty years, And I got an ho r on him, and I can see the like beads of perspiration he has to go to is like, and

Then let me just ask you one. I won't hold you all to a Survivor pick because some of us have multiple entries. But if I said to you, you couldn't take any of the top four dog any of the top four favorites in Survivor. So not the Ravens, not the Commanders, not the Vikings. And what's the fourth one? Not the not the uh there's one other that's like six, oh, the Chiefs. If what would be what would be the team besides those four that you might play on a

I know you need the Eagles probably, I said the Broncos.

I don't have one. I'll say this, yeah, a bold prediction.

Tampa could could be Minnesota Tampa easily.

That's that's your favorite.

That might be the next question that's at the end of the show. But yeah, aren't it. That's okay, Well, let's get to those final two questions.

Shout Seattle, by the way, that would be my pick.

Seattle all right. So then the final two questions, as always with the end of every megapod, which Stevie just just sort of give a portend of, which is which big big favorite is the most likely to lose out right? Which game do you want no part of? Which is an interesting question on week one more than any because I think there's a ton of them. But which big favorite most legally lose out right? You say THEA to Tampa Bay because you think we're underrating Tampa Bay in some way.

I know, I think I just think Minnesoa it could it was a blow a slightly below average team by and and and and I think they didn't get any better.

Yeah, so the wheels could come off this year.

The wheels could come off, doesn't mean they'll come off.

Yeah, Gus, they're a high variance team. They're they're They're the kind of team where Kirk Cousins can throw you two pick sixes or fumble the ball when he's back in the in the in the pocket, and of course turnovers are what make NFL upsets. So you've got mister Cousins in the pocket, they striped, sack them two times, and you win the game. That's how an NFL upset happens, and they're a high variance team for that. Sure they can look great, but they can also make all kinds

See quarterbacks on Netflix? Outstanding? Yeah, that was It's so much better than hard knock.

So analytical. I had no idea these guys had to study so much. No wonder like these these quarterbacks like fail miserably. You know that, don't put in the hours with the playbook.

It's so that's it, right, it's it was soot.

I disagree.

Cousins takes Tuesdays off to go to the library in the middle of the season. Tuesdays, I do no football. I just go to the library and I read books during the season.

What is this? That's true? He did, and he was so nice in the libraries.

What he wasn't out clubbing until three am?

Yeah, he was so polite. But the point I was trying to make about that is, like the fight, they do a great job of going through all these guys seasons, right, whether it's Mary Odor Mahomes. But in the case of Cousins, like we forget maybe we don't, but I forgot how unbelievable that Viking season was, like the nature of something that that Buffalo game will will endure forever.

How about thirty three? Nothing?

How about thirty and the comeback and the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL.

Oh cool was the Vikings coach? He's you know, I didn't call that quarterback sneak?

You fumbled? Yeah, you might want to. He was so controlled.

I was like you could just see me like like internet fasick would have like benched him for the rest of the year.

Therenet pick I should really ask that question. Well, just want because I asked you about Brad Powers earlier. You are such a knife said this to you before. You're such a nice guy in real life, such a smart guy. What happens to you on the Internet? Do you have this inside of you? What is this DNA strain that makes you want to police the gambling world and become that hate able on Twitter?

Why I gave my brother Andy access, so it's him, it's him bright No, no, no, no, it's just a it's a flaw. It's a flaw. I got improved. I'm this is this is what.

Todd has always said is about this is what we like about you, that you're able to be.

It goes back to dungeons and dragons, the dungeons and Dragons from the eighties. Yeah, and you know, touching boobies. That's what all this stuff goes back to. And if we want to get into a deep psychological discussion, we all have our weaknesses. I obviously have more than most, but my friend Stevie probably was, you know, very into the dungeons and dragons and maybe not getting that touches my boobies as possible. So he has to he has to tell everyone he's the greatest of all.

You know, people say I got rejected in high school, like like, that's like you have you have to like get to the plate, you have to swing, you know, to get rejected.

Not even that far, so, Todd, you're saying that the that the less so touching of boobies is inversely functional to gambling, brash gambling Twitter.

This is not really about Steve. I'm just kidding. I'm kidding about Stevie. I love Stevie, but I do think there is definitely a strain of you know, guy on the internet who who has figured out that you know, fourth and nine is better than fourth and three, and he has to try to tell everybody. And the reasoning behind that is not that he just needs the information himself.

Who was self aware to go after her.

By the way, I seem to get everybody in trouble, you know, like Will Hill comes with this beautiful family.

To Las Vegas.

I get him kicked out of it because you know, it's a problem I have.

That is awesome. Uh think before we conclude this, get the last two questions together wrapped up. You just said something there are also that trigger something todd which you said fourth and nine or whatever, first and goal at the ten? Do we agree that there is some sort of in game opportunity if you can get it right there that it is much more difficult?

I said that that was yours. My favorite thing. That was the first and goal at the nine or ten is extremely difficult to get the ball in in college, but even more so in the NFL. And I think that for end game, you know now, And that's a situation where you can't really do it at commercial unless the commercial happened right when it was first and goal

And if the other team has this is a high level analytics. And I hope some NFL team is listening. If another team is like second and three from the fifteen, you should jump off sides automatically. You should let them go to the ten.

Oh now that now, what are the chances of a team you'll never get ever getting there?

Oh, they'll do it, Yeah, eventually, it'll it'll they'll do it.

Yes, you said this.

He made jump off sides on purpose.

I think you're right, Will.

In the four minute drill, when the team has the ball second and two, like the team recognized that they're just gonna run off another ninety seconds, just just jump off side, give them the first down and now we'll stop them.

When they run.

I think Will is right right. But Ravens did do it one time, I.

Believe, Yeah, Gebe when I brought this first and goal thing up at the ten Last year you said, I said teams should try to get the other team at first and ten, and you said they're going to start doing it just and you didn't say the thing about the off sides. Of the off sides, that's a brilliant idea, actually to jump off side from the fifteen or the fourteen on second and.

Three, just like on the first down play update, you don't want to gain eleven yards, you want to gain seven or eight. It's better to gain seven or eight yards on first down than eleven.

It is so much better as an optimal strategy to jump off sides there. It's it's almost like, as you say it, it's like such a no brainer. And yet we've been locked into this way of thinking forever. It's always done this way, so it's always gonna be this way. But it's so true established the run, but big established it.

If that becomes a thing that the offense can just be smart enough to decline the penalties, which I mean, you're getting to another level of things.

Why you need a good you need to be a good actor, and you ahead that's always going like like you're jumping outside to do it again.

Yeah, what Steve said, This is the point I wanted to do where And Steve's right. We watched so many more games than these guys. These guys are busy doing X and O, and they're thinking about, Hey, Jim, did you get the technique on the defensive end. You know he's not getting down in the stands good enough. We gotta do that or else he's gonna get killed by the left tackle. You know, that's what they're working about.

Those the most extreme example, in a high total game, I know this is ridiculous.

There's two minutes to play, you're tied.

You got fourth and goal from the one I would almost rather take a knee to kick a field goal.

So think about it.

Wait, say again, So.

It's twenty seven.

All I have fourth and goal on the one yard line, there's two minutes to play. I have two choices. I can take a knee or kick a field goal. I don't know which is right. So obviously what I'm saying is you clear, we have to go for the touchdown because you couldn't get the touchdown sixty you know, percent of the time. But even if you don't make it, kicking the field goal is worthless. If I'm up three and the other team is the ball.

I see what you're saying.

I'm close to fifty to fifty. If I stick you on the one, I'm winning, right, I am?

I am?

I had at that.

You're not saying it's logical. What you're saying is that that that percentage wise, it's almost like keep taking a knee is almost as good. Yeah.

It just shows what a donk move it is to kick the field goal.

Yeah, I'm talking about this one.

Faz.

You're down three with four men to go, you score a touchdown, you kick the extra point to go up four, or was you rather take a knee and be up three? I know it's crazy, but is that a reasonable question?

You know, it's actually a reasonable question because when you go up four, then the other team knows exactly what they need. If you're only up three, how often do you see that, Like a team's a team's down three or two months to go, and they matriculate down trying to get in the field goal range, right, and so they're either going to tie you or they're gonna lose

That's fascinating. Yeah, we were solving all the football's problems here. If only I would love to see some team do that. We talk about what people's heads would explode, but it makes sense. Well, well, same question, he said. Fez said, Minnesota biggest favorite, likely lose out right, You say.

Biggest favorite, like I'm gonna go. I'll throw a little curveball at the Kansasy.

They have all sorts of issues on defense now, cluster injuries, holdouts. These first games, they it's a mixed bag. They can be a little wonky. Where the team is tight, they get their rings. Maybe they're distracted, I'll say, Detroit, you.

Know these teams getting the rings though have kicked. But like the past twenty fifth every time, every time, like the money comes against them. Yeah, and it's coming against Kansas City or and then they just whack.

Didn't used to be that Wams got killed last year, though that's true. Rams did get killed. So he says Kansas City Todd.

I mean, just to be a contrarian here, I don't know if you'll count this as a big favorite, but they're five and a half. The Jaguars are five and a half against the Colts, and I wouldn't be super duper duper shocked to see the Colts at home. You know, this new offensive coordinator worked with Jalen Hurts and now he's got another running quarterback. Maybe they could, you know, stir something up and figure something out.

I am going to say the Minnesota Vikings, just for the reasons we stated like that'd be the one where would you be like completely shocked at the Vikings Layden egg and then it was a tight game at the end, and then they need to score Laden Cousin does something bad. I really wouldn't. It wouldn't shock anybody, I don't think. Last question, and there's a lot of answers to this.

I'm gonna give you two of them, Okay, all right, And this is gonna be a different answer than you're gonna get all year long.

Okay.

As a professional, better, I focus on spreads that matter, all right. So when the spread is like around one or two, I'm teasing right. If it seems like an eight point favorite, I'm teasing it down. If it's around the three or the seven, I'm trying to get the best of the number. And like a lot of these games qualify across the board where there's like there's no way I cannot bet the Buffalo Jets game because I'm either looking to late two and a half or take three.

That You're right, that is a answer we will not get all year Loan, Will, Will Hill, everybody from Fox. I love saying that.

Now I will go Ravens Texans.

I want no part of Stroud on the road in Baltimore or Baltimore team that might be improved, but I'm not looking away double digits, especially a team that's retinkered their offense. Maybe there's certa adjustment period. So Ravens Texans pretty easy pass for me.

Yeah. By the way, with the Ravens and Survivor like it just because it's the top favorite, I think there's actually a justification if you don't think the Ravens, like Will just said, if you don't think the Ravens are gonna be all that spectacular, maybe you do just play them also as a as a team you just don't want to have to deal with later against the Texans.

Todd, I don't know about this Rams Seahawks game. I mean, last time we checked in with the Rams. They were just in complete disarray. And what's going to be down to the new thing? Does Cooper Cup have ham strings? Does he not have ham strings? We're not really sure.

Pretty sure, I'm pretty sure he has.

He still, Yeah, I've had some bad hamstring before. That's some bad stuff. But no, I don't. I don't. I'm not sure about what this Rams team is at all. And I think there's a lot of variants of what they could theoretically be.

I could pick a bunch here, I could pick Dolphins, Chargers, I could pick Bengals, Browns. Ultimately, I'm gonna go Packers Bears. I think that's the one where there is no outcome. I would be surprised by none. Packers blowout, Packers close to wind, Bears blow.

Out, but the Bears still suck Hill.

They all could suck.

Bears fourteen to ten. It's fourth and two twenty two seconds left. Here, Jordan Love inside the Bear's ten yard line, at the eight yard line, back to pass. He rolls to the He's inside the five. What football the Bears have it? The Bears cover and Stevie goes down.

Wait, wait, there's a flag on the.

It's a flag. I think that's the appropriate way to end this. Appreciated guys. Week one always fun. The megapot is back Steve Feszick only back to back, Hilton Super Contest Champion. Thank you for doing this. We'll do it again, honored. Thank you my man. Uh and uh first time on the show. Will Hill from Fox Sports, How good does that sound? Will you like that? Fox Sports? Will Hill?

I get used to it. I like it all right.

The Bear Podcast, that's what it is, The Bear.

Podcast, Bear Bets Podcast.

Okay, Thursdays, the Bear Bets Podcast. And yeah, Will, by the way, for those who didn't get it, because I didn't get it out of him. He's like the funniest human being alive. So we promise to get more funny out of him. Coming up, Todd wish to have everybody from his mom's cork attic. Thank you Todd? Or do

Lady was telling me I should be dating Diana.

Yeah, you were with Deanna. They noticed them. Are you guys still together? It's a beautiful thing. Thank you all for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week one of the National Football League