Come check it down, then come now down. Then Wednesday morning, August sixteenth, twenty twenty three, it is the Beating the Book Podcast. It's Gil Alexander decided to get off my behind podcast season. Of course NFL season upon us very soon. I think we're three weeks away. We're gonna, of course, have the Megapod each and every Thursday. Todd Wishnev and Jeff parlay the staples and the rotating guests from week to week. The Megapod continues in well now double digit seasons.
We look forward to that each and every Thursday, beginning right prior to week one. Guessing Lines with Christy Andrews will continue as well. The first Guessing Lines is always the Monday morning after Week one of the NFL season.
But between now and then a few podcasts an NFL preview, a US Open Tennis preview coming up, and in what has been the longest running series in the history of this podcast, the Beating the Book Podcast and before that, the Betting Dork Podcast, we do our Baseball quarterly derivative show Q three, twenty twenty three with our buddy base winner Mark Borchard from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. How you doing, Mark?
That's so cool. We've been doing this for thirteen years. Wow, that's nice.
Thirteen years. I just right before we got on air, I went back to c When was the first time. This was before we did the Derivative Show. My fifth ever Betting Dork episode June twenty third, twenty ten MLB saber Metrics Tribute. This is the Betting Dork feed that's still up at iTunes Forum. Guest base winner emerges from the lab to give his four MLB picks of the day. I don't know how you went on those four, but
I assume it was. Okay, we'll have to check. I'm thinking we went four no, oh, we got a totally four to oh, totally. The Quarterly Show, though, is the longest, running, even longer than the megapod and guessing lines like you and I have been doing this. I don't know how we got started on this, but Q one, Q two, Q three, QU one, Q two and Q three of
each Major League Baseball season. What Mark and I do, for those who are unfamiliar, is we do we call the MLB Derivatives Betting Show, which is we look at the teams that to that point in the season. Obviously this is the quarter pole. To this point in the season have been the biggest money makers, the biggest losers for betters. With a bizarro exercise, if you had bet them every single day, every single game all year as a favorite or a dog, doesn't matter what you'd be up,
what you'd be down. We do that for the money line, We do that with splits. We do that with the run line as well, the de facto power ranking. Those who have listened to the series for a long time remember that phrase. We do it for starting pitchers. We do it for umpires. Mark is great because you have historical umpire numbers, so we see are this year's reliably over and under umpires when they're calling balls and strikes
historically corroborated by Mark's numbers as well. All designed to make you, you know, to get you to make smarter bets. We also do first five inning numbers and proprietary first
inning numbers. Again, the whole purpose of this is not to say, oh, look what's happened, but it's determined what's narrative and what's predictive and Mark for those who are just listening to the podcast side, we did this on the radio side yesterday, and I wish we had done this on the podcast side yesterday too, but that's just luck. And would you like to explain to folks what happened yesterday? Yesterday when we did this, it was awesome.
Well, I don't know, we're.
Talking about talking about the first yeah.
Yeah, yeah, So seven reno oh wolda is worst worse in baseball? And Gil actually put out a play, which he never does, and well, I shouldn't say that because you're spot playing. So this was a spot play. It was a great spot play, and you bet it a bunch of different ways. I personally bet it drawing no bet, which is cool. You can get that nowadays. Uh, Braves first inning draw no bet, and we got a three run homer I think with two out skill correct me if we.
Did with two outs. So again, it was like I bet the Braves. We found out on the show yesterday doing the first inning numbers. Is that seven reno? Yeah, the worst on base percentage against it in the first inning this year. And the Braves have the best run differential in the first day this year, and fad the Braves run differential in the first inning is better than all but like five major league club's entire season run differential, and so it's it's rare that those two things align.
And so it triggered a bet on the Braves at plus one forty nine and plus one forty first inning to score a run. And then also Braves run line first five Braves, you know, minus a half run, Braves full game, minus one and a half. So it was just a great day. But again, it just the confluence of events on that. So hopefully you know there's something on this show that can sort of trigger maybe not quite as precisely as that one, but something moving forward.
Shall we begin, sir, sounds good, Gil, All right, let's do it. Let's go to teams. This courtesy of Covers dot com, and we'll roll through these because these we went through this yesterday and it's somewhat surprising, not the very top one. It is not surprising to anybody that the Baltimore Orioles, again, if you would bet them every game this year as a favorite, as a dog, whatever Bizarro exercise, if you'd bet them every game this year on the money line, you'd be up twenty six plus units.
That's even after they lost yesterday. You'd still be up twenty six units, which is more than ten units more than the next most profitable team, which is interestingly the Washington Nationals, who despite a fifty three and sixty seven record in the standings, would have you up fifteen point three eight units per covers because they're a dog so often. Cincinnati rounds out the top three Texas, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta
maybe more predictable teams after that. But are you surprised Washington and Cincinnati are there?
Washington is super surprising because you just wouldn't think that they're you know, it's not like their pitching's great by any means. Well, I think there was an interesting stat I saw the other day Washington versus ground ball pitchers per Baseball Reference second Best OPS and Baseball. I thought that was super interesting because I would have never thought that.
It's interesting. Do you, by the way, Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati the only ones that would have you up double digits. Baltimore, as I said, twenty six plus units, Washington fifteen point three to eight, Cincinnati thirteen point nine to one units to the positive again betting them on the money line every game this season? Do you expect the Baltimore thing to continue. Do you expect the Washington thing to continue?
I think the Oriols are gonna come down a little bit. You Look, you know, I do something on my side, Gil. I don't know if anybody's checked this out, but it's actually pretty good as far as like saying, well, has this team been lucky? Has this team been lucky? Oriol second luckiest on my site based on and I use weightter runs, creative plus, expert minus, and defensive run saved if you compare the standard wins to the expected wins. So I think that they've been been pretty lucky. Gil.
So I would say, you know, right now, there's six seventeen winning percentage. Too bad. You can't make this bet. Are they going to be under six seventeen winning percentage? I would say yes, Gil.
It's interesting because you were talking, by the way, you like the Padres for those who care about if those who listen to this today that you're actually on the padres against the Oriols. We were talking on a Numbers game this morning. The Orioles twenty two and eleven in one run games this year. That is the best one
run record probably by far. Well, No, the Milwaukee Brewers have something to say about that they're twenty four and ten, but the Oriols twenty two and eleven in one run games and yes, by pythag with Aagrian theory and Bill James theory, they ought to have won seven games less than they have seven games fewer. And we talked about the Padres who have been the most unfortunate. They ought to be ten games better than they are in the standings six and nineteen and one run games, oh and
ten and extras. Oh my god.
Anyway, you know it gives It's funny when we do
this show. I come up with all these ideas because I love how your mind works, and it just I listen to what you say and it kind of stimulates my mind and I'm like thinking, oh, it'd be really cool to have like a chart with like winning percentage for one run games, like by every team, so you could see, Okay, well this is what they're winning percentage is, and then kind of like, you know, I guess if you're doing like stock or four X charts or something, see if they're you know, if it goes up and
down type thing. It would be super interesting. It's something to think about on the off season. I have all these projects skill in my mind to do in the off season.
It's great. I would love to see all your stuff. It's just a trove, a treasure trove of baseball stuff. We stray. I didn't mean to stray all that. But by the way, the worst teams on the money line, no surprise, Oakland would have cost you nearly thirty units over twenty nine units in the red this year. By the way, if you're betting Oakland each and every game this year on the money line, something's probably wrong with you, because for the purposes of this bizarro exercise, they'd be
the biggest hemorrhagure. The Mets would be the second worst, good god, over twenty three units to the negative. Kansas City would be over twenty two units to the negative. The Padres would be fourth worst, followed by the White Sox. The Padres are the one, I mean, goodness, So you you actually think the question of will this be sustainable? You actually think the Padres based on you know, and I just mentioned about their pythagora, and you don't think
this is going to continue. You think they'll actually turn upwards.
Oh you do see their winning percentage. As it stands right now, the standard winning percentage on im MLB dot com is four seventy five. I think they should be at five sixty six win percentage. So they're the unluckiest team for me, gil uh in baseball. So yeah, I think,
and you just think about that. You you've got you know, you've got Snell and Darvish and uh Musgrove, like the problem with the Padres and so this is I guess I'm glad I'm talking about this because so you can say, well, they're unlucky, they're one run games that sort of thing. But like if your bullpen's lousy, like you're gonna probably lose more run one run games than if your bullpen's elaked, right, And so like I'd like to talk about project. There's
another project. There's the number two on this on the show, like like you know, chart your good bullpens and how how that corresponds with one run games and that that's an int thought.
Is to me, this is the whole key to the Giants, right, Like, I mean, that's the it's the bottom up approach, if you will. It's you know, again we've said this before you think about their three World Series championships. At the beginning of the last decade, the most consistent thing they had was the bullpen. I think like nine Giants played in all three World Series teams, but I think four of them were out of the bullpen. So they figured that out. The Kansas City Royals, remember and their run
to two World Series they won one of them. They were they figured out, we don't have the payroll of other teams. Let's go seven, eight, nine, let's get those innings solidified. And so I think those are the precursors to this. You watch Giants games, You're like, oh, here comes Trunk, Kuilo, Camillo. They're gonna win this, right, So I really think there's a lot to that. By the way, again, brief aside, we're gonna have a lot of asides on this. I'm guessing, but I did the thing yesterday on a
numbers game. I'll do it for the podcast audience too, which is, you know, where are the best bets to make the postseason? Right now, with roughly forty games for everybody left, obviously, give or take a few games, where are the best bets to make the playoffs? Where the best bets to win division in Baseball. And so my exercise,
and I'm curious where you come in on this. My exercise was, i will take the Fangrafts projections, probabilities to make the postseason and to win a vision, and the Baseball Reference ones, and then I'll juxtapose it against the actual betting line. And so the five bets that came up as triggered bets, the bets that show value to make the postseason. The Mariners at plus one eighty at DraftKings.
This was yesterday. They ought to be if you believe the Baseball Reference numbers, they ought to be plus one twenty three. So that would be a bet per my exercise. The Cubs to make the postseason. If you believe the Baseball Reference percentages, you know the betting line is minus one twenty five. It should be north of minus two hundred.
The Giants, if you believe fangraphs, the yes for them to make the postseason at minus one forty five is a great bet still despite their tough schedule, that ought to be north well north of two hundred. And then to win a division. It's the Cubs again, if you believe the Baseball Reference projection, it should be about plus one twenty two. You're getting plus two ten on them yesterday to win the Central, the NL Central, and the Rangers.
Minus one sixty five actually represents value if you believe the Baseball Reference projection of seventy two point one percent to win the division that ought to be by this two sixty so three division. Excuse me, three playoffs, two divisions? Do you agree with those? Do you disagree with any of them? And what additional ones do you have?
We'll start with with Rangers. Rangers, by my projections, should be winning that division seventy one point seven percent of the time, so minus two to fifty three would be a fair price there.
Love it.
And then if we talked about the playoffs, as Jim Moore would say, you're looking at the Cubs minus one twenty five. And I have the Cubs and this is they were minus two to seventeen yesterday. Now they should be minus one seventy five because they did lose to the White Sox for whatever reason yesterday. But there's still good value there. And then the Giants. I have the
Giants to make the playoffsus two thirty three. One of the things that the local guy uh the d Backs are priced right now by my numbers at four to ten, I think you can get like like four fifty for them, So d Backs, as you know. And actually the best value from a from a long shot standpoint, by my numbers was is the Red Sox. I've got him at twenty three point two percent three thirty one. You can get him in the market at least you could yesterday at plus six hundred, So that was a good play too.
Oh okay, so d Backs and Red Sox you would add to the mix there to make the postseason? What about real quick? Before we move on, I apologize for the asides right off the top. Jason Weingarten came on a Numbers game earlier this morning. He just made a bet the Rays to miss the playoffs at twelve to one. They're five games clear of being on the outside looking in.
I got a ninety seven point eight percent chance for the raise to.
So twelve to one would not represent value to you based on your numbers. Okay, okay, let's continue. So again, those are the uh, those are the you know again? Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati the best money line teams for betters thus far this year. The worst Oakland the Mets, Kansas City, and San Diego. By the way, san Diego not to make the playoffs. You didn't bet that, Huh.
San Diego is kind of like right where it needs to be is like plus four hundred, and they're like plus four hundred to make the playoffs.
So okay. By the way, if you were curious about the splits about that money line, Texas is the best home money line team. By the way, overall when we talk about money, Texas ended up fourth, as we mentioned, but they are the best home money line team if we've met them at home nine point four units. That is, almost all of their winnings are at home. Quite frankly,
they're barely a winner away. And when you talk about away, we talked a little bit about this yesterday Mark the Orioles and the Nationals and the Reds, who are one two three overall. It's amazing that in the Oriels case, almost twenty one of their twenty six units roughly have been made on the road. For Washington, they're actually a home for super Washington is actually a home loser. They're away.
Money line would have you up seventeen point five units if you just bet that blindly and the same thing with Cincinnati. They're actually a home loser incrementally, but a huge road winner of almost fifteen units of the positive. Does that surprise you that Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati that almost all of their money and again, obviously their prices are going to be better, more bang for your buck on the road, but for that difference to be that stark from home to road.
We're real definitely. And the Nationals to you because you know, you think with these analytics departments and they're good, they're strong in Washington too, They've got some they got some brilliant people over there, but the Orioles do as well. And so you're talking about we've talked about this for probably the last five or six years about ball lineup
construction based on ballpark. So you think that, you know, these guys, the smartest guys in baseball are going to be like, Okay, well we're going to try to tailor our roster pitching roster, hitting roster to the ballpark. And so you would think that with the best analytics department, they would have better splits at home. So that is a little bit surprising to me. Gil.
Yeah, So what did we read into all that that Baltimore is probably not quite that sustainable and the Padres will actually have an upswing. Is that probably the headlines from that exercise right there?
I think those are headlines. I think those are good headlines.
What about run line? This is the de facto power rating again. If you're a favorite, you're one and a half run favorite. If you're a dog, you're a one and a half run dog. The Orioles end up as the number one run line team in baseball. That one run record has a lot to do with it, although actually that one run record says the opposite doesn't. If you have a one run record like that where you're twenty two and eleven, maybe it wouldn't indicate that you
would be such a great run line team. But they are in fact the number one run line team in all of baseball. They would have you up over twenty five units, almost exactly the same amount as a money line team, followed by Texas, followed by Incinnati Texas almost twenty or a little over twenty one units up. This per covers Cincinnati almost twenty units up, then followed by
the Dodgers and the Cubs. But it's the usual suspects as far as this year Baltimore, Texas, Cincinnati interesting, whereas Washington they're still in the positive, but they're they're not nothing to really write home about on the run.
Line, and I think maybe you break that down favorite dog or something. So maybe the Oils are dogs and so they're they're they're close, you know, coming coming into right game.
So in Texas that makes sense, right, it makes sense, whereas Texas being second, they probably crush you if they're a favorite by more than by more than run one and half.
Runs Axas, especially at home. You know, the others displayed about the Rangers that there day night splits, and I think there's something there. I think there's something with with with the rhythms and stuff. But if you if you you can't get day night splits on fangrafts, but you can get day night splits on MLB dot Com if you go there, they're they're they're up at the So I personally think, after having done this for such a long time, I think there's something with with the day night Splitskay.
Since you bring it up, I got a question. Do you when I when I say day night splits, starting pitcher in your entire career doing this does someone leap to mind.
Because I I don't really use it as much as I think I should. Gil. I mean, that's that's something that you you know, you can uncover a lot of bases which no pun intended. Actually maybe there was a pun intended on that. But but when you're when you're doing this on a daily basis, and when you got to crunch fifteen games a day, you know, there's some things that that admittedly like I leave out and I do a lot, so uh, but that's something I think to think about.
Yeah, yeah, you know, it's interesting. I you know, what if if the picture that comes to mind, and I have no numbers to back this up, I just remember maybe it was one year where he had this amazing split. Remember Brian Banister with the Kansas City Royals.
My god, yeah, that's a good poll that.
Was like great in the day and then not so great at night. I don't know if it was just a one year anomaly. By the way, the worst run line team is no surprise. Kansas City's the worst. They would have cost you over twenty eight units on the run line. If you're betting the Royals every day any which way, something's wrong. With you. Mets are second worst on the run line, Phillies third worst, Marlin's fourth worst,
and Brewer's fifth worst. So three, four and five are actually potential playoff teams on the run line.
That's that's super interesting. You know, I don't know, you know, I gave out like last week. I think it was on Thursday. Philly is an eight to one and miss a playoffs. I thought that was pretty valuable. You think that bullpen is in question with Alvarado is one of these guys and you see this happen. He's not with Judge, He's put these guys on the on the ile for on the IL for I don't know, like you're taking Okay, we'll be back in ten days, you know, a week,
ten days. Well, this guy's still on the IL. I guess he's doing some rehab stuff. But you got to wonder what that Alvarado his strikeout rates approaching fifty pct. He's a valuable piece to that bullpen.
That's a big deal, Judge, you might need to be on the IL He looks like he's limping around. By the way, since you bring him up the Yankees.
Well, okay, let's go on another side. Because this happened at Dodger Stadium the other day. I can't remember. As a left fielder for the Rockies, same thing happened to me. He hit his toe on underneath the padding there on the concrete. It's like, okay, guys, let's fix this, guys.
Let's fix that. That's it, yeah, because it turns out to be a brutal injury in the end. Oftentimes this is so this one's a little more nebulous. This is starting pitchers who have made or cost betters the most money if they bet on that pictures that starter's team every time this starter took the mound. Dean Kramer of the Baltimore Orioles, it's your number one over thirteen units of the positive. You bet the Orioles every time. Dean Kramer,
the Israeli native Dean Kramer. The Oriols are eighteen and six, I believe when he takes the hill. Abbot of the Reds, Taiwan Walker of the Phillies is third, and then Gomber of the Rockies is fourth. Somehow, there's nothing to any of those, are there.
Especially Gomber? Really? Oh my gosh, wow, that's that. That is the surprise of the day.
For me, that's a surprise because the Rockies are thirteen and eleven when he takes the hill, and they're probably huge dogs in most of those.
Right, that's crazy with that, And this is I wanted to save this one for the five inning segment, but they have the worst of the Rockies have the worst fiving run de differential in baseball, worse than the A's like, so that's that's that's surprising to me that Austin Gombert he gets him today, by the way.
Yeah, well oh you did bet against Austin Gomber. Okay, Yeah, that five inning stuff doesn't surprise We'll get to the five innings in a minute, but that doesn't surprise me because it's cores, right, So if you lose, maybe you tend to lose by more.
Right, Yeah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, that's interesting observation.
By the way, worst starting pitchers. Again, this is if you happen to bet on their team every time they take the hill. Well, no surprise that Jordan Lyles of the of the of the Royals, who I think they started oh to fifteen with him on the hill this year. Well, now that they're now three and twenty He's still the biggest hamrhager of cash. He'd have cost you fourteen units. Zach Greenky, his teammate, would be second worst. He'd have cost you over ten units. And then it's Gildo of
the Angels. He's been terrible with the Angels by the way since the acquisition. He'd have cost you almost ten units this year for both of his clubs, the White Sox and the Angels. And Jordan Montgomery, who the Rangers just acquired, of course before the trade deadline, he would have cost you in his days with both Saint Louis and Texas, he would have cost you over eight units
this year. Those are the worst four. So I mean, I'm not saying Lyles and Granky are horrible pitchers, but their team is just horrible, right, So I mean it's gonna be a couple of Royals pitchers probably the bottom.
You know that that Royals team that they've played a little bit better as of late, but you'd look at run differentially. You look a lot of the advanced metrics that they've been a disappointment. I would say if the Royals could be a disappointment, which I think that they had better expertations than what they've done this year, so they are kind of disappointing even comparing him to their own expectations. Guilt.
Yeah, just some big names, by the way, at the bottom of that list, eighth Sandy al Kantara eighth worst. I mean, how far is he fallen? He'd have cost just seven units this year anyway, because the Marlins are nine and fifteen in his games. Blake Snell of the Padres is eighth. Remember excuse me ninth. He was a
big you know, possibility of a trade deadline acquisition. But I said the same thing about him and Otani, like as bad as the Angels have been since the All Star since the trade deadline, I still believe the Angels had no choice. Like I just believe they had to keep Otani and hope for the best. I felt that way about the Padres in a different way, which is, you know, I think if Ardi Moreno got rid of Otani, Like, what are you telling your fan base, this is the
greatest player in baseball. You have to keep him in try and with the Padres like they were supposed to be great. So I don't think you could have got rid of Blake's noew, Well, they're eleven and thirteen and Blake Snell outings this year, so that would cost better six and a half units roughly. And you Darvish is eleventh with the Padres eleventh worst in terms of hemorrhaging.
Money, right, Darvus is surprising because he does play on that team, that team, like you know, even by the numbers and and I adjusted every day, like they're like third in baseball from an offensive like weighted runs created plus, which is the standard I guess what people use nowadays, and they're they're, uh, they're number three by my rating, So you would think that they'd have he would have better luck with and he's he's got like a lot
of really good Sabermetric numbers. So maybe that's the guy for me that that'll probably get better than where he's at right now.
Gil, Yeah, let me throw it to you for the umpires, because I don't want to my numbers look a little yanky here, but you and I isolated an overump yesterday, which in terms of what he's doing this year juxtaposed against your historical stats actually jibed very well. So you're like, well, remember when when a stat Fox or one of these
sites that puts Umpire assignments on their site. First, if you see these particular guys who have a tendency to guy to go over under and your bet is going to go the other way, maybe it takes you off a bet at the very least doesn't necessarily trigger, but maybe it takes you off. The guy on the over was Edwin Moscoso. Nine of fourteen games this year. He's what he's called balls and strikes have gone over and he absolutely jibes with your historical numbers to the over.
He's gil. He's the third highest over umpire by my numbers. And so I have like an opinion on this because you're like, well, it's only nine percent. You know, from a run projection standpoint, I used strikeout percentage and walk percentage and you can actually equate that to a run expectation quantitatively, and you think, well, it's nine percent, Well how much is that? But if you think about it, you know, ten percent of a total, that's nine you know,
that's almost a full run. So it does make a difference. And it's certainly something I have in my model from a from a total standpoint. It's kind of incorporated into the math in the model, but that was the one that kind of stood out to me. He's number three, he's number one. Would you say number one in baseball from an overstandpoint.
No, he is number two. Well it depends how you you know, if by percentage. Well this is listed just by the number of over games by percentage, he's not number one. Jim Wolf and Hunter Wendelstead are actually nine of thirteen to the over. But Edward Moscowsa was nine of fourteen to the over, so I mean that's.
Still there's something there.
His strike zone is the size of a thimble, you know, Like I always say, like you wonder what it is with these guys. And by the way, I don't know if you see, like to the opposite and this will be more in tune with the over with the under guys. But like there was a pitch to Justin Turner and Boston last night. I don't know if you saw this, it's like two inches outside of the strike zone and they rang him up, you know, and you're just like,
what do you do? By the way, and then Gabe Kapler for the Giants yesterday, this kid who rose from from single A all the way to the big leagues, for the Giants this year has been This was his second game last night. His name is his name is Wade Meckler, and he was like the umpire, Chad Witson was calling all of these pitches that were way outside of the strike zone strikes on him. So Gabe Kapler
finally lost his mind. You're killing this kid, like you're sucking all the confidence out of him because you're calling these pitches way out of the strike zone as strikes. He lost his mind. He got tossed. Next two times up, Wade Meckler got base hits. I mean, it's really it's becoming worse and worse it is.
And I think I think the other thing too is we have better data and the and the presentation of where the pitches and the strike zone is really well done on the broadcast. So what happens is you see a pitch like that and it's they're pivotal. Every game has one, Okay, So for for me last night it was it was Tommy fam at Batty. They called a strike a ball, next pitch got hits a double and that was like the key and it worked out for me really well. But like, I mean, I think that
that for what we see. The technology is there to be able to and you're a big tennis guy. I've seen it done in tennis as kind of a layman guy who watches tennis, and it's pretty efficient. It's not apprusis to the game. They say, hey, this ball was out and you know you called it in or I guess vice versa, and it packs all of maybe fifteen seconds to say, yeah, that was that was out or in. And I think they should institute something like that in Major League Baseball.
Gilt, Yeah, you're so right, first of all, on many accounts. One in tennis, it is completely transformed the sport of tennis. Right from our childhood, when you know John McEnroe or Jimmy Connors would lose it on the lines people or on the on the umpire. We don't have that anymore, right because the technology is accepted and it's so seamless that you just move on. In the minor leagues in baseball, Will Hill was talking about that this morning on a
Numbers game. In the minor leagues, they have a challenge system where like the batter taps his helmet or something, and it's super seamless. You get like one challenge right kind of thing, but like in a high leverage moment that could matter. I think that's not going far enough. I really don't like it's gotten so bad. And you're right about what you said. There is the key from
a betting standpoint. You happen to have won that bet, But we've all been on bets where we legitimately can make a case we lost a bet because that batter got to stay in the box longer than he should have been, and then of course right he hits the bases clearing double right after that when it should have been strike three. And it is super frustrating. But you know, betting is hard enough, so to lose that way really pisses you off.
Absolutely, it's a big deal, and I think they should look at it. They're taking sponsorship money from betting companies and fantasy companies, and I think they really should.
Look at it.
And I don't know, I don't I don't know if the fan has any voice. But if we do, let's, uh, I don't know, not play totals for a day or something and see how.
We're going on boycott of totals. Would you remember?
Funny, it's like if like if you start the Voice of Sports betting starts this movement, it's like, let's not bet totals for one day, like like Sam it has an impat That'd be funny.
People would be like, fuck you, Gil, we're betting our totals, dammit.
Not be any total then, like I got about this total. I got about this total.
That's right. I love you, man, but I gotta bet this thing. The most reliable under umpires and baseball this year. I don't remember who we landed on that jibed with you historically yesterday, but I can tell you Doug Eddings nine of ten to the under this year, Brian Knight, There'sboddy eight of nine to the under, Nate Tomlinson. No, that's not right. These are all jacked up. Jeremy Riggs ten of twelve to the under.
Who we mentioned on the show, Jim Wolf was in the top Yes, yes, he's in the top ten of my under umpires, he's number eight. And then Doug Eddings is in the top twelve. I guess he's number twelve. Okay, so yeah, there's there's something to that. And gosh, I guess I guess Brian Knight has is at one so he doesn't even need to start there.
He is once again, that song is mathematically impossible. Four what is it? Well, I wanted It's like a gen come true. Two, I want to be with you. Three Girl, it's playing to see you're the only one for me. Four repeat steps one, two, three, you can never get to five to fall in love with me, you can never get to it.
That's never gonna fall in love. I guess that's sad.
Brian Knight under umpire? So again, what were the under the reliably historically under umpires. Who are they?
Well, Jim Wolf Dougettings And I want to I want to say this because I don't know. Like Bill Miller is number one by my ratings. He's the number one one of my ratings forever. So the guy's not so like he's an under umpire. You know, you gotta definitely make adjustments with that guy.
Yeah, So again, keep that in mind. Maybe they have a huge wide strike zones. It's not necessarily does this mean, Oh, if these guys are umpires, I should absolutely automatically play the under. Oh if Edward Moscoso is the umpire, I should automatically play the over. No, should it though perhaps give you pause if you're going the other way in a game, like if you have an under in an Edwin Moscoso game, maybe you should think twice and again. These these umpire listings, I always say, stat Fox is
there another place? I think there's a Twitter account too that has these, right.
Yeah, there's there's umpire Crew, there's umpire Report. There's a couple of good umpire umpire sizes right now. Okay, and those are two of them. And then but stat fox is how long is staff fi? I think stat fox pregates us. I think it's stuff still working, so it's pretty cool.
Some people still love it. Yeah, some people still go there. Good for them. Okay, let's go to Those were all from covers dot com and marks obviously his proprietary numbers to corroborate or to go elsewhere with those numbers, this comes to us first five inning numbers now for betting, which get big big shout out to odds Shark, who keeps who compiles this for everybody. I used to do them manually. Remember there was a time where like you could not find these numbers anywhere, So shout out to
odds Sharks. Odd Shark pardon me at oddshark dot com. The Texas Rangers, as you pointed out earlier, the number one first five team in all of baseball. You said, based on run differential. Well, they're the number one money earners for first five betters. They're seventy thirty seven and twelve. Remember you can push in first fives. You'd be up over fifteen units if you bet the Rangers every first five this year on the money line. And we were
discussing this little yesterday. Are hunches. It's just they just out hit people right, in addition to being solid pitching.
SIS four hundred and fifteen runs offensively, two sixty nine allowed. So the only team that has more runs, and I don't know how many games each team has played, are the Braves. The Braves have more runs in first five.
And the Braves would be the number two money earners for first five you'd be sixty nine, thirty four and fifteen. You'd be up almost ten units with them. So it's really the Rangers by a long margin, by over five units. Then it's the Braves, and then it's the Reds. Like the Reds again, followed by the Orioles and the Guardians, but once you get past the Orioles, you drop off a cliff. So here's the thing. Let's put it this way.
You know how many teams are profitable first five money line this year if you bet them every single game five Rangers, Braves, reds Orioles, Guardians, and the Guardians less than one hundred bucks, less than one unit in other words, And.
I think maybe that touches on on a point where these first fives, because I love playing the first fives, I think you can isolate a starter a lot better. You can, you can go a little bit more specific with the stats, but you got to keep in mind at least now maybe the market I'll get more competitive down the line, but you're going to pay a higher price.
As a rule, the straddle is bigger. The straddle is bigger, that's right. You won't find the dime lines here, so that matters. And that's amazing. So legitimately there's only five out of thirty teams positive and the five that are again throw the Guardians outcause is less than one unit. The four that are are hugely profitable. So it's like those are the four anomalies. Rangers, Braves, Reds, Orioles, the
way about the Braves. We were talking about this, not with you this morning, but with other with other folks, and we always say this about the baseball postseason. I made all those Braves bets in plus money down the stretch last year, seventeen different bets in plus money I made on the on the Braves to overcome the Mets and win the NL East, because I just thought it
was mispriced and it came through. And one of the big things I said is and now the Mets are going to peter out completely because the problem in baseball is you play one hundred and sixty two games. If you don't win your division, Mann does it suck because then you got to play a best of three, so
it is hugely punitive. And I, you know, we are the other stat We always throw out stats by Lopez who says, you know, in basketball, best of seven, like eighty percent of the favorites get through because there's huge top heavy in the NBA first round typically, although not so much in the Western Conference these days, but historically to get the same percentage of favorites through and hock in hockey, you'd have to play a best of fifty one.
That's how random hockey it in baseball per stats by Lopez. You know what, you'd have to play a best of to get that percentage of favorites through a best of seventy five. So think about that, like it's so random, And yet I want to ask you about the Braves. Are the Braves so good this year that you don't care about any of that? You'd bet them to win the whole thing? Because man on a nightly basis, Mark, I watched them, and I'm like, they're playing a different sport than everybody else.
It taught the bottom lineup wise. I mean, I don't think there's a weakness in there. You look at their bullpen by my numbers, they're rated number one. You know. The one thing and I love Strider. He's probably my favorite pitcher in baseball. But he could be had every now and then and maybe a team like the Dodgers can have him. And do you think about do you think about the Phillies. There's one thing I know about the Phillies just kind of off the top of my head.
Versus power pitchers, they're top three in baseball, like, so that makes sense that they were able to get to Strider last year. But yeah, I think when you get into that, you're talking about the randomness of the postseason. I think as good as they are, as dominant as they are, maybe it's his best to bet against him, because you know what, pretty much the same team last year in the baseball they got jumped by the Phillies. I think this Dodger team is really good. I mean,
what have they won like twelve straight? I mean they're.
Thirteen thirteen and one in August, I think, and they've won nine straight. I want to say something like that. It's like they're never going to lose again.
Yeah, that Bobby Miller, I could hardly wait. I hope he continues to be as good as he's been because I love saying Bobby ball game. It's one of my favorite phrases. So I hope he think I can continue.
Worst first five teams in baseball No Surprise Royals followed by the A's Royals would have cost you over twenty units if you bet them blindly. First five money line this year. If you're doing that, you're doing something wrong. Athletics. Second, they've cost you sixteen and a half units roughly. This Barad's Shark Phillies would be the third worst mark fifteen plus units in the red and then the Red Sox and Mets rounding out the top five. Do the Philly surprise you there?
Absolutely it does, because if you look at run differential, you've got bottom three teams Colorado minus one, forty eight oh minus one, forty five Royals minus one oh two, and then but the Phillies are actually positive. They're ten runs ahead first five. So it might be having something to do with pricing.
It's all about pricing, so think about that. So you said the Rockies have the worst run differential right first five for five yeap, And I mentioned that there are only five teams that are positive in first fives. On the money line, the Cubs are sixth, literally eighteen bucks in the negative, and the Rockies are seventh, only ninety six dollars in the negative. That's despite having a forty two, sixty three and fourteen record so bad in the first five.
But because those forty two probably have massive plus money attached to it, that's why they're six. They wouldn't have cost you barely anything exactly.
And you got to think there's so there's also like there's a game in Colorado where I think the Angel scored twenty one runs in the first maybe twenty three runs. So that's a big that's a big chunk of that right there.
It sure is all right. By the way, I didn't we didn't do this before. But you know, the most profitable first five pitcher is Austin Gomber of the Rockies.
Oh, don't tell me this, don't tell me this. I'm playing against it today. Oh he's boud for regression regret. It should actually that's a regression candidate because there's all his numbers are terrible.
This is so funny, goes Gomber, Eovaldi, Kramer, the aforementioned Dean Kramer, and then Justin Steele. That was surprise was Steel or Eovaldi, but Gomber, Eovaldi, Kramer, and Steele, all of whom would have you up over seven units in the case of Gomber and Evaldi, almost nine units the positive. So there you go.
There's always one guy. And look, I remember when we used to do the Sabermetrics All Stars, and I love that so much because it's so great. I remember you did Derek Lowe and this is when they would they would hold onto these guys. You just bet him every time coming out and it was just so profitable. It was like easy winners too, Like the guy gets shelled every time, they keep throwing him out. And that was what I didn't remember. That was under your savorite metrics
all stars to reglass one here. That's cool.
So first five inning red the Rockies are thirteen to nine and two when Austin Gomber takes the hill and that's enough with plus money to have you making tons of dough. So you're fading him today. You're fat Rockies. Yeah, full game, right though, full game.
You're going full game on that. Yeah, they're bullpen's trash too, So that's good.
By the way, worst first five pitcher in baseball money wise is Zach Grinky four thirteen and five. The Royals are in his first five starts.
Got I'm so depressed about that because, like from a from a metrics standpoint, he's it's always a play against him, and I've just played against him in the past, and the guy's like a wizard. He's like whatey. He's guys like you'd be like, oh, the metrics say jump on him, and then then he'd like throws he ah man, he gets three strikeouts and you know walks three guys and that doesn't allow it runs. So yeah, he's frustrating on so.
Super super frustrating. All right, well, we did this yesterday. This is the last one. This is the most proprietary of all. It's the first inning numbers because a lot of people like to bet first innings. We talked about this yesterday. We already talked about the top which is I wish we had done this on the podcast side the very morning of when Louis Severino was taking on the brace. Severarno now up to date after last night's performance,
the worst first inning pitcher in all of baseball. He's gone from five oh four to now a five nineteen. Opponent's batting average, oh my god against him. Excuse me, on base percentage, pardon me not batting average or maybe no, yeah, batting average against his four thirty three. The on base against is five nineteen, five nineteen, So again, more than one in two batters reach base against several Reno in the first Ozuna with a three run shot against him
last night. No surprise that Adam Wainwright is number two at four sixty two on base against and Jack Flaherty the Orioles, Jack flair Now four forty six against in the first inning. Do you do any first inning betting? Nope, we lost.
I haven't done much, Gil and I want to, but I think it needs to be modeled like separately. So like that, there's another project, third project. We got on the show, our third project.
And by the way, I have bet. You know, it's been a sort of a cottage industry on a numbers game, betting first inning yes runs being scored. You see this sort of a cottage industry has developed about people promoting, oh, you got to bet the no it's not really the way to do it. Your instinct ought to be to bet the yes runs. And it really isn't quite based on this kind of stuff. But it is fascinating to look at Severino, Wainwright, Flairty with Severn Reno just being
I don't remember we've done this for years. I'm not sure I remember a five nineteen against in a first inning. That is just horrific. The best in the first inning. These won't be surprising. Franbervaldez one ninety against, Hey, sus Losarto one ninety three against, on base Sonny Gray two hundred on base percentage against followed by Zach Wheeler, Zach Gafflin, Tony Gonsolin, Aaron Nola, and Luis Castillo. No surprises there, So what's what's what's the biggest.
Staro's up there? Like Lozardo is an interesting guy, you know, Gosh, I bet him a bunch of times, and I would say mixed results would be would be best on the on this guy, it's so like, it's interesting that he's up there.
What's the single biggest headline in all of this? Was it that? Was it a first five thing?
Yeah? I think so. I think I think so, Gil I would I would say that I would be with you on that.
Only four teams in the positive on first five. That's that's remarkable, well five if you include.
The okay, So I I just want to like, let me just kind of break this down a little bit. For for me personally, I love making the first five bet. I really do, because you get a result quick, you can really isolate on starting pitching and other things as well from a stat standpoint. But like you know, even with that in the back of my mind, I still make the bet.
So it still make a bet.
I still make bad and I think this is one cool thing about like where sports betting is kind of evolve, and yeah, yeah, the market's tougher. I mean, everybody's got access to the same stuff now, and there's there's a lot of gooder you get. Your network puts out a lot of good information and people listen, and people are starting to become better handicappers. So that makes it more difficult to handicap. But the markets should get more competitive
as things go on. So I'm excited to see, like first five inning markets, maybe we can get a little bit better juice one in a couple of years ago.
What does that tell us? Though, I'm curious because we've done this for many years. I don't ever remember at the quarter pole right in our Q three derivatives poll that literally only five teams are profitable first five and again the Guardian's less than a unit profitable. So it's really four teams, four out of thirty Rangers, Braves, Reds, and Orioles. What does that say? What? What is the
message in that that starting pitching is basically meh? League wide? Right? Like, of course every team is going to have its ace, but it's really not deep, deep enough to sustain good five inning performance or that the offense of those teams I'm talking Rangers, Braves, and Orioles specifically, is so good and so stacked that their leaps and bounds better than
any other offense. And because of that, and because you're starting at the top of the lineup, obviously you're getting the most bang for your buck in that short amount of time, right, So you're gonna get you know, max top of worder there in the shorter time spell timeframe of five innings. Is that I mean, is that the message that the offense is just so condensed in those three teams.
Oh, you made some good points, and I think that like something that for me I think about all the time is how these teams prep for the starting pitchers and and you mentioned that the teams, you know, maybe there's just really good preparation and they're they know how
to get to the guy early. And so I think for me, like what would be fascinating to see is like how other teams perform against teams like the Rays, teams like the Giants who kind of mix things up and you see, like with the with the starters nowadays,
like Okay, well we're gonna bulk this guy. But then they end up not bulking him and stuff, so they're they're there, And I think I thought they should do this for years, keeping teams on their toes about as far as preparation because with the technology right now, you know, they have the virtual reality thing that you can simulate a pitcher and so like, who's to say that these guys aren't stimulating the picture. But if they don't know
who the picture is, who they gonna simulate gil. So I think there's there's a lot of interesting stuff from a analytics standpoint, there it is.
And also you bring up the Giants. So the Giants come up first five, they're thirteenth, right, so they're middling. So they would have cost you four unit's all year. Like if you bet them first five every single game this year, you'd be down for units. So again, nothing special, but I mean keep in mind what we're talking about. The Royal would cost you twenty, The A's would have
cost you sixteen and a half. The Phillies would have cost you fifteen, The Red Sox would have cost you almost fifteen, The Mets would have cost you thirteen and a half. On and on, right, playoff teams, potential playoff teams like the Twins and the Brewers and the Mariners ten and above Padres right there too, Diamondbacks almost ten units or at least over nine. So if you're the Giants and you're always rolling out like every so every so many games, it's just a bullpen day, right, they're
just mixing and matching, like Ryan Walker. Here, you start, you'll pitch two innings, we'll go to our next picture. What it also tells me is the that that approach ain't that bad and that more teams ought to be considering it.
Yes, you know when you see this happening too, and it makes it from a headcappy standpoint, it's a nightmare. It's a night yeah, it is, because so for years, you know, we bought, we've we've boxed the starter or listed the starter right, and so now I'm just I'll just get into kind of my life. If I see somebody that's going to bolt for the Giants, I've got to like, I got to I'll handicap that. But in parentheses, I got to put bulk right. And so like it's it,
it becomes challenging. And then the other thing is too, this is interesting, Gil. I just want to touch on this because it's it's been a challenge for me. You look at a guy like Paveta, right, so he he's been getting like like openers, and so you look at us like stats as a starter, like, okay, you can use those, and there's there's there's some relevance there, but there's also relevance to when he comes in as a
bulk guy. So you now, if you if all your systems are like, well, how does he do as a starter? You got to be like, okay, I got to change this because I'm going to put the bulk stuff in too. So from a technical standpoint, from a handicapping standpoint, it it presents another hurdle to go over.
I guess mar G I love it. I always think about the old well first of all, Deon Sanders when he played football in baseball he used to say he used to riffing off the old anti drug commercial in the eighties where it was like, oh, here's my brain, here's my brain on crack. And Deon Sanders, I brought this up many times, used to say, you know, football was baseball was his brain and football was his brain on crack. And when we get to do the megapods,
it's football season. We all love football. It's going to be you know, we're going to be on hamsters on a wheel week after week doing football. It's the greatest thing in the world. But I so appreciate doing these pods with you because this really is my brain as opposed to my brain on crack, and I love nerding out on these things. And baseball handicapping still to me is some of the most fascinating stuff in the world
because it really is problem solving, right. It's trying to fix a puzzle, and there's so many little nuances to it. We'll never get to perfection, but we always strive to get as close to it as we can, and it's what makes it so fascinating. So I've just always appreciated man, all these years. If I haven't told you in person,
I'll tell you on the air here. I've so appreciated all of these shows that we've done together, because, like you said, the more we talk, the more than it triggers thoughts, and the more that we try to innovate or or figure out something which is all designed to make us make money to whatever extent.
Absolutely, it's a beautiful thing. And even when you come off of You got to keep that in mind because you're gonna have days where you'll go in three or four or worse, and you got to keep that in mind that you have to really enjoy and love to do this. And it's so fun to work with you and to be on with you, and I just I can't I can't tell you how much I love you, and I love the voice of sports betting, and just as a listeners as in the off season, I'll listen
to the guests and talk. I am just so gosh, I'm humbled to be on with some of the guests that you have. For you to consider me as a guest, because you've got some great guests that come on all year. Paul Carr is awesome with soccer. He does such a great job with that. That's the first guy that comes to my mind. But the list can go on. And uh, I love listening to your show and I love being on. It's fun.
Well, you're the og of them all, Mark, I appreciate it, man, Mark Borchard, tell tell everybody by the way we buried the headline. I always say Base Winner. People know you from this podcast at Base Winter Baswinter dot com. You still do a Base Winter podcast, but I bear with the headline. You do something every day now except for today Wednesday, which is why we were able to record this. Tell us what that is?
Yeah, every every week the MLB Show. It's a YouTube show and at lasts about an hour we get we go deep diving into the card and I think one of the things I enjoy about that is I can interact with with people who follow me and you can say, well, Base, when you set the chart out and you got this guy rated this, what's your take on the why why isn't in a play? And then I can go back down into the deeper numbers behind that and tell him why I didn't consider it a play. It's really cool.
It's a it's a it's a great it's a great show. It's fun for me.
Uh.
We actually have a lot of fun on it too, so that that's that's a bonus as well.
What's the quickest way to find it? How do what do they do?
MLB Show? Bet us? Just do a search on YouTube and you'll find me.
And you do it with Jason Wingarden as well or old buddy.
Yeah Jace Jason on Tuesdays and Thursdays, we're together. And then and then and Kyle uh prevdances as the host. He does a great job, fun guy. And then Corby Craig is one of the other analysts too, and and and he does a lot of good stuff. He does a lot of good stuff with stat Cast. So it's cool. And yeah, we have we have a fun time. And and you guys want to check us out and ask me questions. Uh feel free. I love I love the question. It's my favorite part of the show.
Gil love it, Mark Borch and everybody. Thank you, Mark, appreciate, love you man, Thank you, Thank you Gil. Thanks for listening. Our next podcast is our US Open preview next week right after the draw. Thanks for listening. Good luck with Paul, your buck