Check it down, then no down. Then Wednesday morning, June twenty eighth, twenty twenty three, it is the Beating the Book podcast mlb Q two derivative show all from a betting perspective. It's Gil Alexander. This is the longest running thing that I believe we have done on this podcast and on the Betting Dork podcast before that. The Megapod
might have something to say about that. But if it's not the Megapod, it is this where Mark Borchard base Winner joins me to do quarterly derivatives betting outlooks in Major League Baseball. Mark joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the Desert base Winter podcast basewinter dot com at base Winter on Twitter. How you doing, Mark, I'm doing good.
And I think that I will hold to this that I was your first guest on your podcast. You were, and it's it, and it's an honor, it really is.
You've done so good and I call you the voice of sports betting, and I know sometimes I say it tongue in cheek, but I really mean it because I think you are the voice of sports betting and you've done such a good job and not just analyzing games on a daily basis and doing a daily show, but being an ambassador for sports betting since and it's gone a long way since we started.
I mean, it makes you feel a little bit old in a way.
But dude, this is Yeah. We met in a forum and we were scolded for contacting outside of the forum or something like that. But I knew. I knew immediately. I was like, oh, this is my kind of guy nerd fest in baseball. I remember it was.
Great, and I was great, and I'll never forget the metrics that we made up watching spring training Baseball Classic.
Yes we are, we are. We're complete dorks. We would go to spring training together in Arizona. We would make up metrics in the stands because something's wrong with us. Do you remember the greatest metric we made up? Though? We should probably bring this up.
Oh, I think it was the long leash, Yes, cool M L cool am. And I really think that I can make that into a metric now because I think about the other day Gil.
It had to do with managers and their quick or slow hooks on pitchers. So it was long leash cool manager. Right. We did an LL cool M or something like that really hasn't caught on quite yet, but.
We got to work up well, I I haven't developed it yet, but it actually makes sense because some of these guys, you know, the way they balance a bullpen, and it really makes a difference towards it towards a later part of those games. But that that's in development along with the G six model that I'm going to make for you with six inputs.
Oh nice, I like it. Mark All was struggling with putting more Giants magic into his model. One day he will get it perfected. As the Giants win their tenth straight road game last night. Giants two and a half out of the NL West. For those who are unfamiliar with what we do here, so this is essentially so we're essentially at the halfway point of the Major League based A couple teams have gotten to the halfway point. The other twenty eight are about to. They're just a
game or two shy. And so what we do every quarter roughly forty eighty one, one hundred and twenty games, is we go back and we look at a bunch of betting stats, both from a you know, very widely available money line and run line perspective on teams starting pitchers, who would have made you the most money, who would have cost you the most. We talk about umpires, who are the most reliable over umpires, the most reliable under umpires.
Mark is invaluable to that because he actually has historical umpire data to corroborate if this is just a uh, you know, sort of flash in the pan thing for half a season, or if this is actually consistent with how these umpires have been. And then it gets a
little more proprietary. We do first five inning stats, and we do first inning stats for pitchers, and the whole exercise is really designed to come up with, Okay, is this just something that we've you know, just happened for half a season and it's more narrative and fun to talk about, or is it legit predictive of what's to come? And so will it help us, you know, it will help inform baseball bets, both day to day and long term into the future. And we've we've had a ball
doing this for so many years. And Mark, let's start at the very top. Which is the biggest money line winners in terms of baseball clubs for betters this season? And who do you have per your numbers? I will rely on Covers for these Covers dot Com. Who do you have as your top three baseball teams? That again the Bizarro exercise. Let's say you bet on this team every single game thus far this season when they were a favorite. Let's say you bet on them every single
game when they were an underdog. So it is bizarro. No one actually does this this way, but if you did, this would be the biggest grossers for betters.
Who do you have, Mark, I've got Baltimore, Arizona and Myami in that order.
Yeah, and Covers has Arizona now today just a tick above Baltimore. Both would have earned you more than fourteen units. Again bizarro exercise, betting them every single day, whether they're a favorite or an underdog. They have Cincinnati third and Miami fourth. By the way, the Giants would be fifth. Those are the five teams that would have earned you double digit units this season. And that's you and I talked about this when we did this on a numbers
game yesterday on Visen. Usually we have a surprise. These are like textbook five overachieving teams, right, you.
Was saying, the only one that to me is kind of in that mix in the top ten, and I think I have them like sixth or seventh or the Braves because you're just laying so much sauce with that team, you would think that that would get you, but they've just been so good.
That team is so some gil Wow that the.
Hitting and the releae pitching's good, but the lineup is amazing and.
A Kunya at the top is just amazing. But yes, to Mark's point, texas another overachiever. Overachiever based on what their pre flop consensus season win total was at six. But yes, then it is Atlanta and Tampa Bay. And think about what Mark just said, which is those teams are laying wood more often than not. But they're so good or have been so good that even if you bet them, you know, just brain dead wise every single game, you would still be, you know, in the money with
both of those teams. Not as sexy as the other ones we mentioned, but still in the money. And really, when it gets down to it, it's not like half the teams put you in the money. It's a little less than half that would actually have you if you
blindly bet them every day. At the bottom, it's sort of the opposite of we just what we just talked about with Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland have been so bad that even though they're only you know, dogs, each and every single night, seemingly and really not even seemingly they are, they're the biggest hemorrhagers for better. So if you had bet Kansas City or Oakland every single game this year on the money line, and by the way, if you're doing that, you're not doing this. Let me
just point that out, you're not doing it right. But Kansas City would have you down almost twenty almost twenty four and a half units. In Oakland would be down twenty two units. Goodness, man, Mets, Cardinals, Padres after that, those come into the sort of way underachieving based on expectation similar to what you have.
Well, yeah, I've got Cardinals' worst, Royals, A's and Mets in that order, and the Cardinals are just really I mean, I'm missed with the Cardinals. I thought that they'd be
right at the top. And I think that even like if you were to come to me and say, if you look at their their x FIP minus a year to date, it's ninety nine which I would have taken that like as you know, collectively as a team, I'd have been like, yeah, okay, well they're average pitching, but they can really bash and they haven't been able to put the numbers up that I projected, although there's seven percent better than average. So what's interesting is they're fielding.
They've they've twenty six runs that they have not dave, so they've they've allowed extra runs, you know, defensive run saved, and you would consider them a good defensive team. But that Cardinals team just perplexes me. Gil it always for the last three years I was I was bearished on them when they were good. Now I'm ballish on them when they're bad. That's not a good thing here.
And here's the question. So of the ones that we mentioned on the top and we once mentioned on the bottom, which I mean, how many of those are do you think our outliers and won't be sustainable? Because to me, like I really feel like Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Miami and San Francisco and Texas are actually good baseball teams. But which which of the good do you think? Yeah,
I don't see it continuing. Which of the bad on the other hand, because you've said it with Oakland, you actually think they'll be better.
Yeah, I think Oakland will be better.
I think Miami, you know, it's it's an interesting team because you look at them profit wise straight up and they're you know, I have a twelve point six units, but if you look at them versus the run line, they're they're not as good. So that means that, in fact, I think I'm not showing a negative number for them, Gill on the run line, So that means that they're they're getting a lot of luck in the.
One run games.
And so I think that, you know, I know Jason was really down on Miami earlier, and my numbers for their offense were low on them too, So I think that that's the team maybe that's going to slide, is that Miami team Gill.
Okay, and Oakland would be the answer to the bottom where you'd be like, yeah, they'll be better. Like you're adjusted season, your adjusted season win total is higher than their current adjusted season win total.
Yeah, I've got them. Let's see, let's see I can pull that, look at that real fast.
Yeah, they were yesterday forty eight point five wins over under at Caesars. So that's their season win total, and I've got them at fifty four point four.
So yeah, all right, so don't yeah, yeah, don't necessarily fade them as rampantly as you might think. By the way, if we broke down the money line numbers into home roads, Arizona is actually the number one away team on the money line. If you had bet them every single game favorite or dog on the road, they'd have you up almost twelve units. Baltimore also would be number two on
the road. They'd have you up over ten units. So most of the units that the number one and two overall money line teams have gotten you have been as road teams. Cincinnati also third best on the road, so it's consistent. So who is the best at home? It's actually Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay at home, they'd have you
up over ten units, almost ten and a half. They're actually a losing proposition if you had bet them every single game on the road, and as far as the oh By the way, one other weird outlier, the biggest difference between a home and road split in terms of money line Washington, the Nationals would have you down almost nine units betting them blindly at home and up almost eleven units on the road.
That's interesting, That is interesting.
Yeah, I think I've only played the Nationals once this year.
That was two nights ago and they lost.
I was gonna say I haven't played them barely at all, if at all, in terms of that. Yeah, go ahead, I'm sorry.
It's hard to get a I mean to get a good position on them, and that the starting pitching is is worst in baseball for me, and so it starts there, and so that's why I haven't really been able to back them at all this year.
Yeah, Mets are the worst on the road, by the way. They're the third worst overall the money line, but they're the worst on the road. Most of their loss is away from city Field Oakland. Oh no, pardon me, Kansas City by far the worst team at home. Almost eighteen of their twenty five units have been lost as a home team. By the way run line best run line team. Now, this is, of course, as a favorite, you're a one and a half run favorite. As a dog, you're a
plus one and a half run proposition. So when you're winning, your winning big. When you're losing, sometimes if you can keep it within you know to a one score game, you become the best run line team in all of baseball, or you're just crushing teams on a nightly basis. The number one run line team a de facto power ranking, if you will, mark, who do you have as the number one run line team?
Are you talking about at home? Are you talking about overall?
We're not gonna do splits on run line? Just overall?
Okay, overall run line team. I have Baltimore.
Yeah, Baltimore just just nipping Cincinnati. Both Baltimore and Cincinnati the best run line teams in baseball according to covers over eighteen units strong, and Arizona would be third. So it's really the usual. Oh no, pardon me, Texas would actually be third. Arizona would be fourth in terms of covers numbers.
I'm sure this to know where the Yankees fall in for you on.
That, the Yankees would be excellent. Question In terms of the run line, they're actually the seventh best in.
That wild I'm looking at the thing, going, well, Yankees are there, So that's a weird one.
So I guess when they win, they crush or they lose a lot of I mean, I don't I can't remember what their one run record is off hand, but they you'd be up six point five units on the Yankees betting them on the run line. By the way, the Nationals would be eighth on the run line at five point five units to the positive. So there is a few surprises in that regard.
And by the way, that Yankee's surprising to me.
The worst on the run line. Again, the Royals, you'd be down twenty nine units betting them, so like when they lose, they don't even keep it close. And again, if you're betting the Royals on the run line every single day, you're doing this all wrong. But anyway, that's that's just an interesting sort of overview of the of that in terms of starting pitchers. Now this has to do with, you know, when these guys take the hill, what is their team's ultimate win loss record? Now, again,
is this sustainable? Is this predictive in anyway? You be the judge. I'll get Mark's opinions. Dean Kramer of the Orioles, the Oriols are eleven and five when he takes the hill this year, Boyd of the Tigers, the Tigers are nine and six when he takes the hill. Henry of Arizona, Tommy Henry, they're nine and two are the Diamondbacks when he takes the hill. Those are the three most profitable
pitchers in all of baseball. Like Spencer Strider, who I think should be the NLSI Young Award winner at this point. Others would disagree. By contrast, he's sixth, right, even though the Braves are fourteen and two when he takes the hill. But in terms of money, because remember a lot of these guys that I just mentioned, Kramer, Boyd, and Henry, when their teams Baltimore, Detroit and Arizona are playing, they're getting plus money. So from a money perspective, they're one,
two three. Are any of those three guys sustainable on this do you thing?
I don't think so.
I mean, I said yesterday, you know Kramer was good on Seinfeld, but I don't really see him as a as a high level, a high level major league pitcher, neither Henry. I think that, you know, the Diamondbacks are going to have to get an extra pitcher. I think to be competitive in the playoffs. I don't think they can just do it with Gallon and yeah, Kelly.
Bottom line, by the way, the bottom of that starting pitcher. Money wise, there's one hundred and eighty four starting pitchers that qualified. No surprise, Jordan Lyles of the Royals. The Royals just won their first game with him as a starter, so they're now one in fifteen. He'd have cost you thirteen units, almost thirteen units if you had bet Jordan Lyles games for the Royals blindly. And again, God help
you if you are. Schmidt of the Yankees is second worst nine units to the in the red if you had bet him blindly, because the Yankees are four and twelve with him on the hill. And then some familiar names Zach Grink, Jamison tye On of the Cubs, and Jordan Montgomery three four five by the way, Blake Snell seventh of the Padres, and he's pitching great. They're also on the worst list. Blake Snell is the most unsustainable of that. In other words, he's going to completely reverse.
You would say, I think, so, you know, I like Montgomery and tie On, I having them better than an average pitcher. So I think that, you know, there might be some some one run stuff in there too for Montgomery, and but I think that that ty On and Montgomery are better than average major league pittures.
Gil.
Okay, let's get to the umpires because this is this is great to have you on with this. So again I'm getting these from covers dot com. Mark has his own proprietary numbers. So these are umpires. And again you can see umpire assignments at a site like stat fox. What was the Twitter handle that you recommend for umpire listings.
It's at umpire crew.
At umpire crewe. Umpire crew is the Twitter handle they have umpire assignments. And as you were saying, you can find those assignments there or you figure out just who's who's the homeplate umpire one night and then you just do the rotation of the crew.
Yeah, that's that's for for any game that's like second, third, or for any game other than the first game of the series, you just the first base umpire. Then the next night that you know, let's say tonight, the first base umpire, and then tomorrow he'll be the home plate umpire, So it rotates. I guess that would be counter No, that'd be clockwise if you looked at the diamond, So first base goes to home plate next day.
Okay, so the most reliable over umpires thus far in Major League Baseball this season. Nate Tomlinson eight of the nine games least, according to covers, eight of the nine game that he's been behind home plate have gone over. Mike Esterbrook ten of thirteen. I believe it says here, Jordan Baker eight of eleven, Alfonso Marquez nine of twelve to the over, and Chad Witson seven of twelve to the over. Those are the most reliable over umpires in
all the baseball thus far this year. So in other words, maybe their strike zone is the size of a thimble and the guys are just able to hack away or take their base. Do any of those names jibe with your historical numbers as being reliably over umpires.
Yeah, Marquez has been consistently over And kind of the methodology on this is I took the last four years, so from six twenty six of twenty nineteen till now, and Marquez has like one hundred and twelve games, and then I used a walk percentage and a strikeout percentage to come up with like a projected er and basically, long story short is, in games that he umpires, I have my total project actual eight percent greater than it
would would be uh normally so and it makes a difference. Gal, I mean, if you're looking at a projected total of nine and it's eight percent greater than it should be, and I'm going to challenge my mas skills here, it'd be it'd zero point seventy two runs greater. So that that could make the difference between making an overplayer not making an overplay one percent.
It could absolutely And so again, just be cognizant of that that if you, you know, let's say you have a lean on a game to the over to the under, but then you see the home plade umpire is going to be someone who is, you know, consistently the opposite of what your handicap is. Maybe maybe you don't switch your bet. Maybe at least it takes you off the bet, gives you enough enough pause for that. By the way, the opposite is.
Such a good point on I just wanted to I just wanted to touch on that because I just have a practical example of what happened to me on Monday nights. So it's the first game of the series, in the White Sox Angels game, and my model projected over pretty sizably, but by about a run, so so I'm gonna I'm gonna play. I know, I don't know who the umpires, but I'm gonna play the over. Well, the umpire turned
out to be Bill Miller. Bill Miller is my biggest under umpire and the game went under and like, if you watch the game, like you know why Bill Miller is an under umpire because he was just calling balls outside of the strike zone. So it could bite you with little but if you don't do it. And it did bite me in the butt too. So I usually don't make a play on the first game of the series only because I don't know who the umpire is,
but I couldn't resist on that one. It looked too good for me from a modeling sandpoint, but I did get burned on it.
Gil Well, that's a that's a great segue into who have been the most reliable under umpires when they've called balls and strikes this year? And the answers to that question Percovers dot Com, Corey Blazer, Phil Cuzy, Trip Gibson, the third, don't want to leave out that he's the third. Bruce Dreckman, Bill Miller, and Brian Knight c your Brian McKnight annual joke here if you would mark what was your joke yesterday?
Oh no, we have to If we do that, then I have to start these ratings back at one.
Oh there you go. There it is bark borge with everybody. It's Brian McKnight joke. So but you just mentioned, uh, you just mentioned Bill Miller. There he is. He's been super reliable as in under rump this year. And you have him historically as a under rump.
Yes, yeah, he's he's historically the base winner number one under umpire one hundred and eighteen games over the last four years, so decent sample size. And then you mentioned a couple of them that are kind of in the in my top ten unders cause he's number twouzy.
Yeah.
And then Trip Gibson. And it's funny you said the third.
You know, I don't know what's wrong with me gil on my modeling, I don't have the third, and I just have Trip Gibson. I mean, gosh, I'm slipping in my old age here. But yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, he's uh, he's in the top I guess twelve.
So yeah, three names there that are under that are consistently.
Undergoing and so that's you know, we're doing a Q two derivative show right now, but that's to have those historical numbers as key here because what it shows you is that it really is when it comes to Miller and when it come to Cuzzy, this is no aberration.
So it's the opposite of what I talked about with the reliably overms historically like Marquez, Alfonso Marquez, who you mentioned, which is like apparently their strike zone Miller's and Cuzzies is massive, one would think, just generally speaking, and so the pitcher gets the benefit of the doubt or maybe like as we've seen in baseball this year, the umpiring has just deteriorated. Like each and every year, it seems like the homeplate umpire calling balls and strikes generally in
baseball has just gotten worse and worse. We were talking yesterday about the Diamondbacks Giants game on Saturday, was just a joke, like Merrill Kelly didn't have to be close to the strike zone. It was a strike. Meanwhile, Sean and I are getting squeezed inside the strike zone. That
Mariner's Nationals game a couple nights ago. It was eight to four Mariners, but the bases were loaded for the Nationals in the ninth and pictures like the strike three called to end the game with the bases loaded was two and a half inches outside of the strike zone, and the Mariners announcers were like, it's a call third strike. Mariners win it if you say so, Like it's gotten that bad, so maybe.
It was a great call.
Aaron Goldsmith, Yeah, that was a really good call, if you say so. And you know what's interesting, I'm glad I have you because i know you're a big tennis guy.
And I've wondered.
This from a challenge standpoint because I've seen it done in tennis. But I'm no expert on it, but it seems to me like it's fairly unobtrusive in tennis, Like hey, if at dinner out, they'll challenge it, it'll get reviewed, and it's, you know, right back to play. And I'm wondering if you would be a proponent of having like three challenges for each manager, would have that for fall strike call?
Yes, absolutely, But first of all, the tennis thing change the entire sport, right, Like you know, we grew up men of a certain age, People of a certain age grew up hearing John McEnroe screaming at umpires, Jimmy Connors screaming at umpires. El destasi if you if you're even older, right, but McEnroe famously you got to be kidding me. That's all out of the game. I mean. Now, it's not standardized over every tournament, but typically right the biggest tournaments.
Some tournaments don't even have lines people anymore, mark right, They just have an umpire just to oversee things. But it's all done electronically. There is absolutely no argument. There are some there are somewhere, you know, the players. There has been instances where the players have wondered if the you know, if the technology has is precise to the line. I mean, we have seen that, but generally that's an outlier. It's completely changed the game. It's unobtrusive, to use your word,
it moves it along. No one gets especially a game that's as mentally focused as tennis. No one gets bent out of shape. Generally speaking, I won't say no one, but once in a blue moon it happens, not really regularly, and in baseball like enough with the umpire lobby, like oh, you can't take balls and strikes away from us or if you argue balls and strikes, that's the quickest hook of them all, Like, stop with that shit already, if I may, like, I mean, it's twenty twenty three, for.
God's sakes, I totally agree with it.
You with you, And there's nothing more frustrating than whether you have a fantasy bet or game and you see that and you're like, I'm seeing this is a this is a ball, and they're calling it a strike and it's just costing me money. Yes, It's just very frustrating, especially when the when the DraftKings of the world are sponsoring Major League Baseball and I don't I don't know, like if Major League Baseball took a hard look at it, I think that they'd be like, hey, we need to
change this. But I don't know why they haven't taken a hard look at it.
Yill, Well, you're your point about that's costing you money, Like so that that Giants Diamondbacks game. So I had a bet on the Giants. I'm basically betting the Giants brain dead every single night, Like really, I'm like, the analysis is very thin. I'm just like, this team's not losing anybody, Like they've got it figured out what they're pitching with their back you know, forward approach with pitching. It's just unbelievable what far On Zaidi and that team
are doing. Sort of the evolution of how the Royals you know, did it back to front when they got to two World Series and won one of them. In the middle part of last decade into the Rays using an opener. Now, the Giants are basically you know, there were there were there were papers at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference over a decade ago where they're like, if you can figure out the rest, the optimal way to play baseball would be two piecemeal pitchers together every night.
And the Giants kind of doing that with three starters, right, they're just doing that when it's like there's so many games where they're like, you know, two innings here, two innings there, and it's working out great for them. But when I was getting back to them, sorry, I go to on the side with the Giants. But the Giants Diamondbacks game on Saturday, I had the Giants and they're winning. It's I don't remember how much they were winning by.
I think they were winning by one run. I had a five inning bed and then a full game bet and you know there's a strike three that excuse me, there's a uh there's a ball way outside on a Giants batter that gets called a strike. End of inning. We go to the Diamondbacks side of it. So they're down a run. This is in the top of the fifth there's a strike three from Sean and I I can't remember the batter, it's called a ball. And of course the next pitch is a bas is clearing two out,
know double, and so the diamond Mass go up. Now the Giants, because they're amazing, ended up getting two runs in the bottom half, and it ended up being tied after five. But like I was livid Mark after the top of the fifth inning, livid and yeah, go ahead.
These these bad calls are having material consequences in the in the games, and what if you had that guy on fantasy or what if you what if you had a fantasy team and you're playing.
Against that guy?
And so I don't think those here's two things, like, I don't think the sponsors are real happy with that. I don't think the DraftKings of the world want that to happen. I think that they want as clean of a game as possible, and I really think at MLB's cores they want as pure and clean of a game as possible as well, and so I think that there needs to be some some action taken over the off seasons as far as this goes, but they just they've
just been slow to do it. But remember we were talking about the video review back when we first started doing this, and we didn't think that it would ever happen, but they they actually changed that. And so think about like how that like like effects a game even as a better Like like last night, there was a there was an overturn call that they called Fletcher from the
Angels safe at first base. I had a bet on the Angels, but even though the call went against me, and this is my point, I felt, hey, this is okay, that that's the right call, and let's let's move on.
That's right.
I think I think that it'll be good for everybody, the game as a whole.
So I'd like to see that go.
I mean, even Show Hey right as great as Show Hey is. I don't know if you watched the Angels game last night. He had a great night both you know, hitting two home runs and pitching a great game. But he got a bunch of calls to pitching, where I'm like, oh, okay, well you know that worked. That worked out nicely for show as well. There was one other example, Oh you
just jog my memory. Yes, we shouldn't forget that, you know, a decade ago or where I you know, the timeline escapes me now, but like I distinctly remember, this is more than a decade ago, I think, or maybe it was a decade by my time frame is all jacked up, so I think it's more than a decade when the Yankee were in the playoffs playing like the Justin Moore No Joe Mauer twins, So we're talking in the two thousands,
in the in the odds decade. Like I distinctly remember a postseason game at Yankee Stadium, and I'm not making this up where I remember having the twins and either mau or more No went down the left field line and the ball was two inches inside the foul line, like it was a fair ball, should have been a double, and the umpire was like, nope, foul ball and it stood right. You're just like, are you kidding me?
I had the same bet.
That's funny that you said that I remember that because I had the same bet.
Yes, so you remember it, and I was livid. And you know, in those days, you're like, sou too bad. The umpire didn't see it that way. So the fact that we were able to change that, like, why does it take forever to change balls and strikes? It's so dumb, so dumb.
Anyway, And and I'll give MLB technology a shout out there. They're they're the technology that they incorporate with with pitch a fax. Yes, I mean, it's so good, it's really well done. And let's let's use it. You guys got it, let's use it.
Okay, we didn't. We didn't anticipate going on that aside, But once again, Marquez very reliable over ump Couzy and Miller very reliable underrumps and the numbers this year in the first eighty games roughly back it up, all right, now, let's get to I used to I used to compile these on my own first five betting numbers. I don't have time to do it anymore. But Odds Shark, Joe Straus get Odds Shark did it for many years now
that they says the Odds Shark staff. So it might not be Joe, but shout out to him, Shout out to the whole odd Shark staff for compiling first five money line records. And what I'm curious about here, Mark, as with all of this, is what do you believe to be sustainable? And what do you believe to be just an aberration that will not be sustainable. So, the
biggest money winners thus far this year. If you bet this team blindly on the money line each and every first five thus far this year, the number one team is by far the Texas Rangers. You'd be up seventeen units betting them every time on the first five. They're forty nine to twenty and nine. Keep in mind their pushes in first five forty nine to twenty and nine. Betting first fives, you'd be up seventeen units this parad Shark.
The Rays would be number two, you'd be up ten and a half units roughly, and the Astros would be number three. You'd be up over eight and a half units. Rangers, Rays, Astros, by the way, Braves, Marlins at Giants. After that is, are any of those teams surprising to you?
No?
Because Texas has been so good offensively and they have the widest run differential, the best run differential first five innings. I did this yesterday is one hundred and eighteen run difference in the first five is Texas. But from a sustainability standpoint, you do have to gosh them losing your gramaw, how huge is that?
Yet their first is still in first place. It amazes me.
So they Evaldi became to grom Yeah, yeah.
I think the Evaldi is sustainable. He's had a hell of a year and the stuff it matches the numbers and the advanced numbers as well. But you gotta think Hany Perez, Dunning Gray, I don't know, you know, I don't know if those guys can can hang.
I mean, they're way ahead in first five numbers, so I don't think the margin is sustainable. But because I mean they're just crushing into it. Like second place is seven units less, right, like almost seven units less than
them the Rays, But it's Rangers raise Astros. It should be pointed out by the way that they're in terms of like if I narrowed it down to how many teams, if you bet them every single day on the first five, how many teams would have gotten you more than two units to the positive per odd Shark's numbers, it's a grand total of six teams Rangers, raise Astros, Braves, Marlins,
and Giants. That's it. Every other team. And this has a lot to do with first five straddle right where you lose more juice when you're betting first fives than you are the the associated full game line, if you will. That's it. That's the list. So it's it's you know, I don't know I first fives. People are like, oh, well, starting pitchers, so violidle, I'll just bet first fives. And it's not as easy as it sounds.
Yeah, and you're playing it into more juice too, so you always got to you got to start there. And I prefer if I can to play a full game, but you have to have really good bullpen numbers as well.
So that's that's that's a process.
By the way. That by the way, does the seventh place team surprise you? The seventh place team first five is the Cubs? Does that surprise you?
You know it is it's surprising.
I'm looking at their their run differential that it's fourteen in the in the first five, and you know, I'm trying to think it like it's actually pretty good in the second and the second half of the game too. I did first five and last four and then and the Cubs are fourteen and five and eighteen and last four. So you know, we talked a little bit about this yesterday. Gil I like this Cub's bullpens, so that that could be a team to look at from a division standpoint.
Interesting, All right, let's say the worst teams. What are the worst first five teams? Well, this shouldn't surprise. This is the worst in like I can imagine. You know, usually when you and I do this, there's some difference between full game and first five, or home and road, or money line and run line. The Royals and A's have been so epically bad that it doesn't matter what we look at. They're just awful. Right, So the Royals, let's say you're like, well, I didn't bet them money line, bizarro,
I didn't bet them run line bizarrow? What would bizarrow? What would they be first five? Yeah, they'd have cost you twenty and a half unit's betting, you know, first five. Also, they're the worst. Athletics are the second worst, eighteen point seventy five units. You know, hemorrhaging to the in the Red you'd be eighteen point seventy five units. Cause you know the Royals first five they're twenty one, forty five, and twelve, and the A's are nineteen, forty seven and fourteen.
I mean, they're just awful. Now, these three teams might surprise you. To round out the top five Red Sox, Phillies, Mets, they're all double digits to the negative first five. Who's the most surprising of those three?
The Mets are you think what they're pitching?
You know, so they have had some injury, but I mean they I think they might have the two biggest contracts from a starting pitching standpoint in baseball, and so that is surprising. And I think one of the things that's interesting as I was doing these run differentials was the Mets minus thirty seven run differential first five and then if you look at the last four, they're actually seventeen ahead, so quite a minute a bit of difference there with the Mets.
That's actually something we should track, by the way, Like we're always you know, you can bet first five, but there's certain places where you can actually bet. I think afterwards Todd Wishnev used to track this for us, like what teams sixth inning on are actually the best in baseball? Like if you it's an interesting way to look at it because it shows you whose bullpens are better. But like you, it was interesting what you said about the
first five. The Rangers. It's not so much of the pitching. It's just they outslug you, they out hit you. And so again they got there. However they got there. They're up seventeen units. Is it sustainable? Yes, to that extent, I don't know. By the way, though, the other ones that rounded out the worst in terms of the first
five bets. So it's Royals worst, Athletics second, Red Sox third worst, Phillies' fourth worst, Mets fifth worst, per odd Sharks the top ten worst first five, rounding them out sixth, White Sox again over ten units down, Cardinals seventh. I mean, the Cardinals have just been an abject disappointment thus far. You like the Cardinals. They're moving forward.
Yes, I think if they can get this, you know, league average pitching from their pitching, which they've done all year, I think that they have they have a possibility. Although obviously you're going to get better, but they've they've lost so much equity in that division that I you know, for me, I think it's the Cubs in that division from a value standpoint.
Interesting Mariners also, you know, almost nine units down first five, Padres over eight units down first five, Dodgers over eight units down first five, Twins over eight units down first five, and Blue Jay's eight units down first five. So that's the thing about first five inning betting. I mean, it's sort of a PSA for don't think it's that easy. Like I always say that to people, like, you know, five years ago, ten years ago, the asked me what's
your favorite sport to bett? It would have been based you know, I would. I used to say baseball. Everything else is a distant second. It's not like that for me anymore because starting pitchers get taken out much earlier than they used to, So for me, it's less quantifiable. I'm not as deep in the weeds as you are where you can sustain this. So for me, it's it's it's gone a little by the wayside. And a lot of times when I say that, people are like, oh, well,
just bet the first five. Yeah, It's not that simple, is what we're showing here.
You know, It's just the thing, you know, I think, what what happen you know, I guess maybe outside of the last five years, is you'd have a pitcher that would be.
Bad and they just stay with him. You'll be like, well, he's.
Got a contract and you know he will turn it around, right. Well, they these these teams, all of them aren't way this guy. If this guy's showing something bad, they're not going to stay with him. So so that's one thing that you got going on. And then it's hard to juggling act.
You really got to be able to balance that. And it's gonna and I think moving forward from a handicapping standpoint, it's I think all these teams are going to go to openers and guys pitching two winnings because, like you said earlier on the show, that the math makes sense, and so uh as they see teams succeed with it, like Tampa Bay, like San Francisco, they're gonna be like, well, we needed these guys are doing really good with this.
Let's let's change, you know.
So yeah, gonna make bottom bottom line is going to make handicapping baseball a more detailed process in my opinion.
And I know you love that, but like to the mirror mortal, that's going to be so much much more difficult, don't you think, Like the person who's.
A call I had to, yeah, because there's so much to there's so much data that you have to balance, and so like I took time out the last couple of years, a lot of time out to learn Python programming, and I just felt like I needed to do it because the data is not as easy to process as it used to be.
Gil Man, I love it. Like you and me are cut from the same class. So the more you talk, the more fascinating I am by it. I really wonder, like how many people are like you at this point, because I wonder how much like baseball modelers, I wonder what the attrition of that has been through the last five years, Like there's got to be a huge percentage layoff where people are just like, I can't do this anymore.
Yeah, because there's just such a such an available amount of data that you know, it's it's really hard. It's it's hard to balance it. It's hard to say, Okay, well this is great. Data looks good, is it descriptive, is it predictive?
And the fact that it it used to be.
I think the teams would hold on to players so you'd get more of a sample I guess of either good, bad, or indifferent.
You'd have a bigger sample.
But as these teams are seeing things, then you don't have time to like, Okay, well this is this is the true talent level of this guy. Yeah, then be able to ride it for a while. So it's just it's just very changeable, like like the data is moving fast.
I guess is that the.
Data is moving fast. Is a great way of putting it, because you know, at the risk of sounding like we're some of the Vagus old timers, because you know, even when we got you know, we were doing our baseball handicapping, we'd always hear stories of oh, it was so much easier back in our day, right even ten years ago. Man, all I all we'd have to do is go to a fangrass page and we have the podcast to prove this right, and we would just look at you know, hacks like E minus f right, the era A minus
fielding independent. We would see babb it, we would see the home run to fly ball rate, we would see all the basic stats that we needed. Feeling independent xpip and just based on a Fangrafts page, we could exploit baseball. You talk about like pitchers who sucked that they would
stick with, and we could exploit that. It was also like, I remember, let's just go back nine years when Jacob de Grom was having his first year with the Mets twenty fourteen, so it was before he was really Jacob de Grom, right before he was winning in Cy Young's And I just remember that summer backing him over and over and over again at really favorable prices, like a dog and short favorite prices, and you just remember, you're like, that couldn't exist today, right because someone who comes out
now people know about him so quickly, and those numbers don't last more than two or three starts tops, so it's more difficult.
Yeah, And I remember, you know, to get to get to what you did, there's Derek Lowe, Like you kept bending against Derek low and they kept throwing him out there.
They wouldn't. That wouldn't happen right now, It.
Wouldn't happen done, And we don't. We almost had, we almost had to pour out of forty when they decided to send him down. We're like, oh, that was fun. Yeah, it was fun. I'm so glad. I'm so sad that they took him away from us. All right, And here's the last thing. First innings. Now, a lot of people like to bet first innings. Jason Weingarten and I for years on the show on a numbers game and on the podcast, we've talked about betting yes nos, Yes, we'll a run be scored, no run will not be scored
in the first inning. Now, what's interesting is that when we used to do it, it felt like we were the only ones. Obviously we weren't the only ones, but we were one of very few people doing it, and there was a method to what we were doing. And I said many years on the show, and it's the one thing I will not reveal, the secret sauce to.
What has been fascinating to watch is how there's been a sort of cottage industry developed now on yes first run inning and no first run inning, and how people gravitate to the no, which is not what you're supposed to do, by the way. So a lot of sportsbooks sort of exploit that and they promote those bets, and they're promoting in a way that is kind of leading you astray. But one of the things that we have
always tracked, and it is not exactly that key to betting. Yes, no first inning runs, but can inform your bigger wagers is how pitchers perform right out of gate, just the first frame, the very first inning. And so what we do here, and this is proprietary on this show, you won't hear it anywhere else. This is minimum forty played appearances. I said it at forty mark three eighty games. Maybe you want to adjust that, but I said at minimum
forty played appearances against. This is opposing hitters on base percentage. The worst starting pitchers in baseball in the first inning this year Jack Flaherty the Cardinals. Wow, I wouldn't have expected that before the season for eighty on base against in the first inning. Luke Weaver of the Reds for seventy on base against. Then you have a Romsi Contreras of the Pittsburgh Pirates third worst, Ryan Weathers of the Padres fourth worst, and then Luis Ortiz another Pirate, another
Bucco fifth worst in terms of the first inning. Do you do you run those numbers? Do you have others in there?
Oh, I've got that they're consistent with what you have top to bottom.
But I'm just trying to see if there's like a bigger name down down the down the line.
That Lance Lynn is on, you know as the top ten worst. Alec Manoa no surprise to anybody, He's has had a terrible season. He's a top ten worst first inning. When you get to top twenty, Verlander is like thirty. I got I gotta see exactly how many.
He's like a three seventy on base percentage. But is Wolba's zero point four to five eight, which is fifth the WOBOs, fifth worst in in UH in baseball?
Yeah, yeah, did I passed Verlander? Where did he go? Yeah? So Verlander is in the in the worst. Yeah, he's in the worst forty. Like names like Wainwright, Verlander, Carrasco, Cindergard, Corbin Burns, Pablo Lopez, Max Scherzer, they're all in the bottom. They're all in the bottom forty. They're like between thirty and fortieth worst. And Verlander to your point three seventy on base against first innings.
That's surprising to me.
And you know the other one's surprising twenty eight is Alex Cobb because Alex husband Good.
Alex Cobb is in there as well. That's right. So and Verlander. Remember there was a time where Verlander even admitted this is like way back when I'd say not quite ten years ago, but I remember when Verlander would admit publicly, I don't know what it is, but I'm never ready in the first inning. I only settled down
in the second. And he used to say, it goes, he goes, maybe I should just start warming up earlier, right, And then he won another cy Young or whatever since then, But that used to be a thing with him, that he sucked in the first inning. And here we are again and he's sucking in the first inning.
So that's interesting. I'll have to look at his historical numbers on that. That'll give me food for thought for today. Gil Good good poll on that, all right?
And the best in the first inning thus far this year, Hunter Green is your best one thirty six opposing on base against first inning. And then after him comes a sort of who's who you Darvish Hey, sous Lussarto, fran Bervaldez, Sonny Gray, Christian Javier, I guess Joe Ryan Fell after last night's performance, I don't see him anymore. But he
wasn't there. But he's not there anymore. But anyway, all those guys fantastic in the first inning thus far this year minimum forty played appearances against a lot of those sound pretty sustainable to you, I would imagine.
Yeah, those those are pretty good pictures that you just mentioned. I thought it was an interesting Graham Ashcraft. I have it two sixteen.
I don't know where you have.
He's top ten, he's tenth to sixteen exactly, Graham Ashcraft.
Yes, we're on that. And then this one's interest.
This this picture is interesting to me because I follow the Angels a lot read debt. Meers is top ten to twenty as I have him, and I think that guy's sustainable.
I think think that could be the Angel's missing piece there.
So they could go if Deptmers can pitch like he has the last couple of times, they go, o Tani. Deptmers have to have two legitimate like you know, top top level. They can't compare debts.
With Otani, but you can.
You know, if you can just get that kind of production with that lineup, there might be something to that Angel's game.
Go. Yeah. The other thing is, like you see when you delve into these kind of when you get more granular like this, because we talked about how when you're okay starting pitchers, if you bet these starting pitchers blindly, they would have been the biggest hemorrhagers of money thus far this year. Well, Blake Snell was on the bottom ten, and we quickly said, well, he's pitching great now, he won't last year long first innings, he's top fifteen best
first innings. You know who else's top fifteen best first innings and is having a horrible year by any measure, Sandy al Kantara of the Marlins. So you do see, you know, when you get a little granu're like, okay, maybe this is what's going to win out in the end if they start games this well, like you know, again, this is only first time. Not only is the only first time through the order, it's oftentimes first three batters, right, So a lot of these guys you have to look
at their attrition second time through, third time through. Like Otani they were talking about last night. Otani is great first time through and third time through, but he's not as good second time through, which is really interesting, right, Usually usually doesn't work that way, it's interesting.
But you know what, you know what you I think you you have touched upon something that's actionable if you can find somebody. I'm looking at Strider and he's like two fifty and twenty fifth place, But like, I don't have Strider as a twenty fifth pitcher.
By my brain is I have number one by a lot.
So maybe he's a guy that you wait and you bet some live stuff on after that first inning, and you could you could compare the guy's prowess I guess in the first inning to to the rest of the game and maybe come up with some good, good live ideas. So that's one of the beauties of doing this show with you, Gil is like you inspired thought on me, which is cool.
I mean, I love it.
I mean it it reveals stuff like we don't do this. That's why we do it every quarter because it's sort of we like to be surprised by what we find, because you're into baseball as much as anybody, and even you are surprised by certain things. Let's end with something you just said, because that's basically the derivatives we wanted to go through all the way from moms to first fives,
to first innings. You know, stuff that's more widely available, stuff that's less widely available, But you bring up Spencer Strider. So I opened a numbers game this morning because of Otani's great night last night, both hitting and pitching, and I talked about how Otani, I mean, he's minus fourteen hundred to win AL MVP. Only only an injury or a trade to the National League could beat him now. So then I was like, okay, well could he win
the AL Si Young? He's eleven to one, he's the fifth shortest shot, and you have guys like McClanahan who is the shortest shot above him, and three other guys like Valdez for instance. And my theory was, you know, he does lead in three big catories right like on base excuse me, batting average against and a strikeout rate or two of them just off the top of my head. But would they vote would they vote him cy Young if they're going to give him the MVP? And my
thought is humans are humans, They're dumb. They probably won't, right, like he would have to just go ridiculous. And Tom Tango, who's got the most tried and true Tom Tango, who invented fielding independent pitching. For instance, FIP FIP tom Tango has the most reliable cy Young points system there ever was, which has nothing to do with advanced stats. Right. I won't bore you with the formula, but it's like the simplest formula for coming up with it. And the last
six years twelve different SI Young's al and NL. He has picked seven out of the last twelve perfectly. He's got McClanahan as his top SI Young guy right now. He's also the shortest in the market in the American League. The interesting part comes in the National League because I went through this and will end on this. You brought up Strider. I went through the exercise yesterday where I went through I'm like, okay, I was talking about Joe Otani. I figured, oh, Toni's not gonna get cy Young. What
about the National league? National League is far more fascinating because when I went through the numbers, and what I care about is EER juxtaposed against FIP and x FIP, but also your expected ra I care about you know, your war your win loss record a little bit, but your k rate, your walk rate, batting average against WHIP. Like I'm going through all these different numbers, and when I go through that, really the guy that ends up
leading in most or is just about to lead. And even more is Strider and Strider's plus seven fifty And I texted Jason last time, I'm like, how is Spencer Strider plus seven fifty? He shouldn't be. There's no way I'm gonna bet that tomorrow, meaning today, And I think I am going to bet that mark And it sounds like you kind of agree with me before you answer. I just want to add the Tom Tango point though,
So Tango does it much simpler. You know who his number one nlsy young guy is right now, I'll give you five guesses.
Oh but Strider it's not. I don't know I did. This is a market where I'm like, I'm with you, I'm like perplexed on it.
It's like Strider's the best picture strikeouts that's in baseball when's losses, which I did a little bit of a study last year on the cy young and when's loses and strikeouts are really two of the key drivers. Yes, and he's he's there too, So maybe kerse shot, maybe kershot.
Nope, So the market right now has well to use the draft Kings number. Zach Gallen is plus one sixty five to win the National League sy Young Award, Clayton Kershaw's plus four twenty five, Stryder's plus seven point fifty, which to me is just like, man, it's such a bang for your buck. On that Logan Webb with the Giants is nine to one, Zach Wheeler's nine to one.
It's none of those guys. It's Marcus Stroman of the Cubs, according to Tango right now, who's twenty to one, and again based on his super simple formula, and I'll try to find that here as I speak. It has nothing to do with those advanced stats that I just talked about. So he loves again. What he is basically getting at is you and I can talk till we're blue in the face about well, yeah, I mean special Strider's strikeout
percentage just thirty eight point two percent. I mean, that's the most incredible thing we've ever seen in our lives. But it doesn't matter to the average cy young voter. They're like, I'm sorry, what's his batting average against? And what's his win loss record? Like that kind of thing.
What are they looking at? Er, that's terrible here's rible.
I'm gonna give you the tango formula for Cy Young and you're just gonna laugh. And then he's gonna laugh back in your face because he's gonna be like, I've hit seven of twelve, and not only have I have seven of the last twelve, but I almost give you the exact order every time. So here's his here's his formula. Let me say, call up my laptop juiced out, but I'm doing it on my phone so it's taking a second. But here it is the tap the tom tango Cy
Young points formula. I know, boys and girls, you didn't think there'd be math on this show, but it's really simple. It's innings pitch divided by twos earned runs. So that's a fraction, right. Innings pitched is the numerator, two minus earned runs is the denominator plus strikeouts divided by ten plus wins. Exactly what you were just saying. Strikeouts and wins.
They they I think the stridegous and wins do too.
I guess that earned.
I guess he's got earned runs in there, so he does. That would hurt Stryder a little bit because he has he has given up more so gosh, I just I can't see guy. How about watching both guys and saying, oh my god, look at this guy like he's watched Strider pitch.
It's just it's it's it. It is impressive.
And I've watched a lot of pitchers, uh, in my day, starting when I was nine years old. Nolan Ryan, who I love, and he's a great pitcher. But like I gosh, I hate to say this, Gill, but I think Strider's better than Nolan Ryan. I really do.
So.
So here's the thing. The comp is exactly great. The comp for Strider based on his high strikeout rate, the low batting average against is Nolan Ryan. Historically, you know what, Nolan Ryan never did Mark never won a cy Young. Never. It's one of the most crazy.
That is such a crazy number.
Wow, we never want a si Young. Most no hitters in the history of baseball. Seven, he had the most one hitters, He had the most two hitters. Like this dude was out of control, by the way, great documentary recommendation on Netflix facing Nolan never won a cy Young. Why didn't he win a cy Young because he had a really high walk rate and so kind of two does Strider.
But I'm a true story, but I think that the wins are important.
So I think that the wins. He played on some crappy teams, and he did. The Braves are probably the best team in baseball.
That's going to help.
That's exactly right. They're the best team in baseball. And he's nine and two strider. So I'm going out. I don't have an in pocket yet, but I'm going out and I'm betting him plus seven fifty today. The only other baseball that I have in pocket awards wise, I have Louis a. Riaz of the of the Miami Marlins. I got him at eighty to one to win National League MVP, the entire theory being that if he hits
four hundred, they gotta give it to him. Now, I know that's a debate, but my whole thing was and why I got him, by the way, he's twenty five to one. Now, my whole thing was in twenty twelve, you and I used to do a podcast at the time. I don't know if you'll remember this conversation. It was a debate between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. For those who are listened to betting dork and beating the book
for years. You'll remember this. It was a debate between Cabrera and Mike Trout, And my point in twenty twelve was, they haven't had a triple crown in forty five years, right, Carlia Strmsky in nineteen sixty seven. You cannot talk about something for forty five years, this hallowed baseball thing, this triple crown, and then decide arbitrarily when someone finally does it, which Miguel Cabrera did. Oh, we liked Mike. We like Mike Trout's new fangled metrics better. No, you have to
give it to Miguel Cabrera, and they did, to their credit. Now, the next year, you can give it Trout, you can give it everybody else you want to, and they did. They give it a Trout the next year, but that year you had to give it to Cabrera. My thing with the with hitting four hundred, and by the way, a rise is still a huge long shot to get there. As we do this on June twenty eighth, he's hitting
three ninety nine. But if he hits four hundred, which hasn't been done since nineteen forty one, and Ted Williams four h six, and we've had flirtations George Bett George Brett in our childhood, most famously Rod Carew three ninety and three eighty eight, respectively. And I know Tony Gwynn hit three ninety four in the ninety four strike season, but if he hits four hundred, I don't care what you're doing, Ronald Acuna. You have to give it to Louis Airias. That's what I'm going with.
Anyway, I agree with you.
I think you're right, Gil, and Nakuta has had a hell of a year. I mean, it would be a shame for him not to get it. It would, but I think they'll give it. I think I'm with you. I think they'll give it to a rise.
And to your point, yes, the Braves are the best, but the Marlins right now are in a wildcard position. So if the Marlins also get to a wild card, that would be you know, another feather in his cap as well, and they would way have an exceeded xpectations by doing so. The only other thing I have is that I don't expect to win this, but I have Elie Dela Cruz at thirty to one to win the National League Rookie of the Year Carrol Gorvin Carroll of
the Diamondbacks is the big favorite right now. Cruz Dela Cruz is four to one at this point, but I don't know if he can get there. But man, is he amazing and he represents to me why this baseball season has been so awesome so far.
Yeah, he's that's a good point that that team's been exciting. The Orioles are exciting. There's so many and the pitch clock is just I knew it would be good, but not this good. This really makes baseball enjoyable for us. It just from a rhythm standpoint, The rhythm is great.
Do you know, let's put it this way. Do you know one person, one human being who has been like, you know what, I really hate this pitch clock. I really liked it when they took all the time in the world.
Oh, I don't know anybody.
It was like, Oh, I wish it was back before when Kenley Jansen was doing laps around the infield.
That's right, when a row this chap would throw one pitch and that take two laps around the mound before you threw another. Yeah, nobody wants.
That, and I think it's attracting people who are kind of on the on the on the bubble. I've talked to a couple of people like, oh, this is great, I can watch I can actually enjoy watching baseball, and so it's good.
It's good. Well job, man, ILB. Now let's do the strike zone here, dude.
Let's do the strike zone. Let's make it perfect. Let's do the strike zone. Listen. We used to do Q one, Q two, Q three on on the podcast side back in the day. We do it on the radio side. Now we only kind of do the Q two on the podcast side. But I always appreciated market and you're right, you were the first podcast guest ever. I will always cherish you for that. I always thank you for that. Man.
I'm glad we have sustained it all these years, man, And congratulations on all your success and people should know you and Jason Winegarden, who I like to think where I gave birth to on the podcast. You guys do your own show together now, that's.
Great and you've really opened a lot of doors for me personally, Gil, So I thank you for that. And uh, you know, always always a pleasure to be on with the voices Sports Betting Okay, wonderful, you know, but you really inspire thoughts. So now I've got a couple of different things, and it's like we should do this more often, we should should bring more and more often.
It's great, love it and again Mark's appearances on a numbers game every Tuesday on v SIN, the Sports Betting Network, Mark, thank you appreciated At base Winter Based Winter dot com the base Winter podcast. How often are you doing Base Winter podcast now that you're doing the bet Us show with Jason?
Haven't done many this year.
I think we've done too so far this year because it's every day that I'm that people you know, can interact with me. That's one cool thing about the show too, is like people can ask questions and I really enjoy that part of it.
There, Yeah, physics in there, he's in there.
Sure, Okay, say finish your thought, we'll go What were you saying there at the end?
Yeah, I'll probably I'll probably kick out a couple more podcasts just from a technical standpoint. I like to talk about the technical side on on the podcast because the host Scott Uh, he's he's a he's actually a around by trade, so we get more into technical on those podcasts Gilt.
Okay, cool Mark, appreciate it, man Mark, borch it, everybody. Thank you so much. Wimbledon podcast on Friday. But hope you got something out of this food for thought for a bet today, maybe not a bet today, maybe a bet for the future in Major League Baseball. Thank you, as always for listening.