Check it down, then.
H no down, then the numbers told the story.
Now always down.
It's one of those idiots will believe in the analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Gone vis.
In good Monday morning TODE is a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course the DK Network. Live from Bar Candidate at the d Downtown Kill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. It is a Monday, it is football season. It is guessing lines. I've been in the cocoon, though not with Chrissy anymore, as you know. Not Chrissy's choice, not my choice. By the way, we have the empty chair for Chrissy. Can we show that as well? Rather
than that that's Grissy right there as it is. That's where we should be, right there, Kelly. We're gonna give it a go. Though, we're gonna do our recaps, We're gonna give our guesses. You're gonna tell me what the line is, and for you the listener, this is still an interactive experience where you can guess along. Really a great way to start your handicapping. Boy oh boy, preseason week number four. That was rough. Wait what those counted?
Oh yeah, well said we saw. We said that about Thursday night. The whole weekend felt that way. That's finny.
I said the same thing last year. I was like, boy, we're preseason. Week four was something else.
Oh it counts how many like quarterback fumbles, exchanges? Like just really, especially those early games yesterday. We will get to every single game in week number two, Survivor. Let's just start there real quick. Twenty one point four to two.
Percent of all Circle Survivor entries bounced. I had one of my five bounds. I'm right in line. Uh so that means I'm a survivor. Hit it. No, it wasn't on top. Well, we're in mid season four.
I won't drop no, not yet.
The biggest culprit for Survivor entries was the Minnesota Vikings. Over a thousand of the total, nine two d and sixty seven entries were on the minnisol so to Vikings. The Seahawks were the next biggest culprit six hundred entries on the Seahawks and thirty one non submits Kelly thirty one entries not submitting racers A thirty one thousand dollars donation off the top. You know, I hesitate to sort of laugh because you never know, right, you never know
what the circumstances are. Maybe there were deaths in the family, Maybe the person who bought them passed away between then and now. I don't know. They've got life in their way. You know, things happen.
Things happen thirty one thirty one times. I don't know if things happened thirty one times.
But yeah, yeah, we'll get to everything every little nuance from week number one as we do week number two. Let's start with Thursday night. What do we got?
Yeah, Thursday night guessing the lines? We started up Vikings at the Eagles eight fifteen Easters.
And again, for those who are new, we've done this for thirteen years. The whole point of this exercise, I don't know what the line is. I will guess what I believe the line is. Kelly will tell me what it is. Chrissy used to do that, and then we'll sort of see if there is some betting to exploit within that process. So what is it again? Minnesota at Minnesota at philipdesk Al Right, let's start with the Vikings.
The Vikings yesterday lose, as we just talked about, the biggest Survivor culprit for those in Circus Survivor and probably nationwide. They lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright second drive of the game. They lose by the way twenty to seventeen. They were about the third biggest favorite on the board yesterday. Vikings second drive, third and two of the Tampa Bay twenty six eight twenty three left first quarter scoreless. Game. Cousins fumbles on the snap exchange. Tampa Bay's Joe Tryon
shoy Inca recovers. The next Vikings drive didn't come to hurt him on that first one. The next Vikings drive, same thing, another era third and six of the Minnesota thirty five h four left first quarter still scoreless. Cousin sacked by Antoine Winfield Junior. Winfield recovers at the Minnesota eighteen, but the Vikings d holds the Bucks to a three and out. The Bucks center for a Chase mclauchlam thirty six yard field goal three to nothing Tampa Bay that
turned out to be the margin of victory. Vikings finally put it together second quarter. They go eighty three yards on their first possess of the frame, Cousins of Jordan Addison from thirty nine out seven to three. Minnesota yet a ten to ten game. After a Mayfield to Evans twenty eight yard touchdown pass, tied up with one h nine left in the half, the Vikings quickly went sixty
two yards downfield in a ten to ten games. Second in one of the Tampa Bay thirteen with twenty three seconds left in the half, Cousins picked by Christian Izzian and it goes into the locker room. We go into the locker room, tied at ten apiece at halftime, and this is such an on brand Minnesota Vikings game and experience. At halftime Cousins twenty two of twenty nine for two seventy three, one touchdown, one pick, two fumbles lost, Jefferson
seven for one thirty eight. Third quarter Bucks open up with what looked to be a field goal mcglalklin from thirty one, but after Evans had dropped by the way what might have been a would be touchdown on the previous play, but the Vikings jumped off side, so the Bucks get a new set of downs instead of the
field goal. They take that off the board. They are set up with the first and goal at eight, third and goal at the seven, Mayfield to Trey Palmer touchdown, Bucks up seventeen to ten, and you're like, oh man, this could happen. Vikings, though, went seventy five yards Cousin of Madison from four out seventeen seventeen thirteen thirty seven left in the ball game. Team straight punts Tampa Bay fourth and one at their own thirty two with eight
eighteen left. Mayfield barely converts, eventually leads to McLaughlin fifty seven yarder fifty seven, twenty to seventeen Tampa Bay. Then the Vikings held to a three and out. They punt on fourth and seven from their own twenty eight with four to zho three left. They would never see the football again. Baker converting a third and two with his feet, third and ten to Chris Godwin with two minutes left to seal the deal. Bucks win at twenty to seventeen.
Cousins finishes thirty three to forty four for three forty four, two touchdowns, one interception, two fumbles lost, sack twice Jefferson nine for one to fifty thirty one combined third down attempts in this games that kind of game. But the Vikings were outgained or excuse me, they outgained Tampa Bay, I should say, three sixty nine to two forty two.
They outgained him in passing yards three twenty eight to one sixty nine, but they were minus three in turnovers, and as I said, that led to three Tampa Bay points the eventual margin of victory. Philadelphia. On the other hand, those of us who had them in against the spread and contest at in actual bets, we probably got super super duper fortunate. Looked like it was going to be
easy peasy, but my goodness. Uh. Opening drive, Eagles matriculate the ball down the field, but a third and goal from the six Matthew Jodon Sachs Jalen Hurts Elliott thirty two yard field goal. The Eagles settle for three to nothing lead. Seventh play in suing drive, Jones throws high and tended to Kendrick Bourne off his hands into the hands of Darius Slay seventy yards of the house, ten
to nothing. Billy first play. Subsequent drive, Zeke Elliott first carry is a Patriot, tackled by Jordan Davis, bumbles recovered by Zach Cunningham at the New England twenty six. Four plays later, spurred on by a defensive hole that negated a sack hurts DeVante Smith from five out, sixteen to nothing, Eagles, Elliot misses the pat We're still in the first quarter. Two thirty nine left, Patriots three and out, Eagles three and out, Patriots three and out, Eagles three and out,
Patriots three and out, Eagles three and out. Then the Pats go seventy one yards Jones to Hunter Henry from nine out sixteen to seven Philly four thirty four left in the second quarter, and you're like, wait a minute, what's happening here? Eagles three and out, Pats go sixty
three yards, masterfully engineered by Mack Jones. Jones to Kendrick Bourn from nineteen out sixteen to fourteen, twenty five seconds left, and New England gets the ball first in the second half, but three and half Pats to start their third quarter drive. The Eagles end up with a field goal nineteen to fourteen.
Then New England drives to the Philly twenty seven, but two holding calls on New England and the span of three plays forces them to punt, Eagles come back down forty eight yard Elliott field goal that jointd In off the upright twenty two to fourteen Philly with thirteen twenty left. Remember the spread is, you know, anywhere between three and a half and four and a half for folks. Here.
Patriots convert a fourth and eight on the subsequent drive from the Philly thirty six Mac to Henry for twelve, but then fourth and three from the Philly seventeen with nine thirty nine left down eight Mac incomplete intended for Zeke. Did you have a problem with Bill Belichick going for that there nine thirty nine left down eight?
Uh no, I didn't en that one. Not a huge problem.
I didn't either. Some people do. Some people are well. Because it's Bill Belichick, we don't hold him to the fire on that. I had no problem with it. Eagles drive for another field goal Elliott from fifty one. He was great yesterday, at least beyond the missed extra point twenty five to fourteen Philly with five thirty three left. Then it got even more machugun of Pat's march downfield.
In under two minutes, they go seventy five yards Mac to Bourne from eleven out Mac to Remandre with a lot of yak on a thirty two yard game being the big play, but with three thirty seven left, the would be two point conversion run from Jones is nullified.
Trying to get the game to three nullified by a hold, and then New England fails to convert the conversion from the eight twenty five to twenty Philly first play from scrimmage, though on the subsequent drive for the Eagles three thirty five left, Hertz rushes for eight hit by Jabrill Peppers Marcus Jones recovers. New England takes over at the Philadelphia forty one with three twenty eight left, but they go backwards on a Jordan Davis Josh Sweat sack of Jones
at the delay of game call in complete. On fourth and seventeen, Philly takes over again. New England still has the two minute warning and all three timeouts, though Philly takes over with two twenty left at home at their own forty eight. Eagles fourth and two at the New England forty four two minutes left up five What do you do? What do you do? Well? The Eagles decided
to go for it incomplete intended for DeVante Smith. Did you have a problem with them going for it fourth and two in that situation?
Uh?
Yes, that one I did a little bit.
Pat's takeover with one fifty seven left, one time out left, needing a touchdown, they get to ball the philadel They get the ball all the way to the Philadelphia nineteen with one oh two left, nineteen yards away, but incomplete pass. Then a Jalen Carter sack, Then a two yard game to Stevenson and fourth and eleven where Kai Shan Boutique couldn't get his second foot in ball game. Eagles win and cover easy, peasy, as you said, twenty five to
twenty never in doubt. Hurts twenty two for thirty three for one seventy one touchdowns, no picks, sacked three times nine for thirty seven on the ground. With that fumble lost, He's won eighteen of his last nineteen regular season starts. They were outgained. The Eagles were by the Patriots three eighty two to two fifty one. Nick Sirianni after the game quote, I'll definitely reevaluate some of the preseason stuff next year. Maybe I should have played Hurts a series
or two this preseason. I already wrote that in my notes. You know, second thought, if I had to do it again over again right now, I'd say, yeah, I would have played Star one or two drives in the preseason. So Nick Sirianni lamenting the performance of his angles of his Eagles. All that being said, Minnesota at Philly, Minnesota was the most on brand performance ever. Yeah, I thought Baltimore and Minnesota both had like really on brand performances yesterday,
Minnesota in defeat, Baltimore in victory. I'll say, Philly minus seven, this probably has to be that, right, no other number.
We are seven and a half on Philly, seven and.
A half with the hook, with the hook with the hook, which I don't know.
I don't know if that, I think you're right. I think it would have to be seven. With Vikings dropping that game yesterday, it might be enough just to push it over to seven and a half.
Are you worried about the Eagles or was that just rust like Sirianni was talking.
That was a weird game to me, I don't really know. I thought Patriots probably should have won that game. I mean, they had nine lives at the end of the Eagles. That was for anybody he had was holding three and a half like you and I were. I had a buddy complaining he went four to one in the circu contest with the Eagles went.
I went four and one, he went three and two.
Yeah, he was complaining, didn't get five and oh. I'm like, dude, you have the Eagles. They're like, come on, man, we used to be happy. Right now we're four and one.
Yeah, I'll take the three and two and all. I'll happily go away with that, or three and two by the way, or a Steve Eszick says, well, you're out of the quarter right, You have no shadow when in a quarterly you're done. So seven and a half huh, Yeah, I don't have a huge problem with.
Yeah, seven and a half, and it is seven and a half. Yeah, almost everywhere I do see one eight out there.
Okay, I'm not racing to the counter behind us to bet Minnesota by the way plus seven and a half, because, uh, we know how these how this goes with Minnesota. Minnesota and the Giants the most fraudulent teams last year, and OI did it start that way for both week number one in the NFL. So what we do Yeah, the recaps become smaller as the show goes on because we have covered everything. But we'll do this into Sunday, starting after the break. Guessing lines on a numbers game these
Sports Betting Network. A numbers game on the Sports Betty Network. Back on a numbers game live here at bar Canada at the Degail Alexander Kelly Bidlin guessing some lines on a Monday morning for week number two. Just a couple of other random thoughts. On week one, all five new head coaches taking a loss. Shane Steichen with Indianapolis, Jonathan Gannon with Arizona, Sean Payton with the Broncos, new to a team that is Reich, Frank Reich with Carolina, and
Demiko Ryans with the Houston Texans. All my season longs look good after one week anyway, ever, Flus first to get fired, Lafleora coach of the year, all season under on the Giants, all season over on the Commodores. What else did I have there? There was one more in there I can't remember. Now we'll get to we'll figure it out. Oh and the other thing, just another observation,
Brandon Staley. Remember how much crap everybody gave him two years ago when he started playing games differently from everybody else and going forward on fourth down from everywhere on the field. Do we not owe him a collective apology now? Because everybody plays the game this way. Now. Now, you could say what you will about his defense sucking in him being a defensive coach, that's valid. But the point about him being somehow this reckless person, they all play his way now, everybody.
And we're all look, no matter whether it's him or any coach in the NFL, we're still going to have gripes about when they decided to go first things. But that's like you said, everybody's doing things that they would have never done if he didn't start.
Doing it anygever. Yeah, all right, let's go to Sunday morning.
What you got Sunday first up? Packers at the Falcons one o'clock eastern.
Oh, it's a barn burner right there. I will say it. How many times this offseason did we say, why y'all so sure Jordan Love's gonna stink? Because I'm not the whole clipboard speech I used to give Green Bay beats the Bears and beats him big opening drive for the Bears. It started with this a fourth and one let their own forty. Speaking of that, and Eberflus decides we're gonna go for it justin field stuff for no game eleven play.
Forty yard drive for the Packers starts it out, ending in an eight yard touchdown pass from Jordan Love to Romeo Dobbs seven to Zhing green Bay. Love also converted a third and thirteen of thirteen yards and Dobs on that drive field goal fest the rest of the half. It's ten to six green Bay. Now. The Packers take the opening second half drive seventy five yards a big Love to Jones fifty one yard pass play the key.
Jones eventually in from one seventeen to six green Bay, and after Chicago three and out, green Bay goes fifty eight most on a thirty five yard touchdown pass and catch from Love to Jones twenty four to six green Bay six. Twenty two left to the third quarter, and the route was on, it seemed, but Jones grabbed his
hammy on the way in. That ain't good. Next drive for the Bears, third and three at their own eighteen fields gets the ball poked out by Kenny Clark, recovered by Rasoul Douglas, but an unnecessary roughness called on to green Bay backed them up just enough so that a three and out resulted in a punt. And then when the Bears won sixty five yards feels darn now Mooney for twenty yard touchdown, two point conversion from Khalil Herbert.
All of a sudden in the closing minute of the third quarter, it's twenty four to fourteen, and you're like, good the comeback beyond, but no fourth quarter first and tend the Chicago forty one for green Bay fourteen twenty one left. Love drops the ball, picks it up off the turf, hits a wide open Luke Musgrave for thirty seven. Next play Love to Romeo Dobson four out thirty one to fourteen green Bay. And then third play next drive fields staring down as receiver like look at him right
in the eye. He hits Quay Walker in the chest. There's one problem Kway Walker plays for the green Bay Packers. That ain't good. Amazing runback by the Way forty two yards of the house, thirty eight to fourteen Green Bay ballgame with twelve thirty six left Love fifteen of twenty seven for two forty five in his opening game here of the season. Three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked only once Aaron Jones nine for forty one on the ground in a touchdown, two catches for eighty six, but
again he heard his hamstring on that final score. Green Bay was plus two in turnovers, the pick six putting the final nail in the coffin for Cargo early fourth quarter. And then there was Atlanta. By the way, green Bay wins that game thirty eight to twenty in the end. Then there was Atlanta. Atlanta wins their game against the Carolina Panthers, but man was Atlanta bad. They win at twenty four to ten after a three and out on offense.
This is early in the game. They allowed Bryce Young and the Panthers to matriculate down the field fourth and one at the Atlanta eleven. Was six fourteen left in the first quarter. Chewba Hubbard stopped for a one yard loss by Trey Flowers. Second Panthers drive, second and sixteen at their own eight. Bryce Young picked by Jesse Bates the third. Three plays later, first of the second quarter, ritterd of Bijan Nice nifty moves into the endz on
eleven yard touchdown seven and nothing Falcon. Second quarter, Panthers go seventy five yards, fifty one of them on Bryce Young passes Young to Hayden Hurst from four out seven to seven. Falcons seventy four yards of total offense in the first half in a seven to seven game. Third quarter after the Panthers won up ten to seven on
an Eddy Pinero forty three yard field goal. Next time, Carolina got the ball third and six at the Carolina forty with six forty eight left, Young picked again by Baits that led to a young hey coup forty nine yard field goal ten to ten, and then Carolina as it first in fifteen at the Atlanta forty nine, two twenty nine left in the third quarter, tie ball game. Miles Sanders hit by d Alfred fumbles Lorenzo Carter recovers
seven plays later. Second of the fourth quarter, Algier in from three seventeen to ten Falcons fourteen to twelve left, Panthers punt, Falcons punt, Panthers punt, then a Falcons fifty six yard drive ending with another Algier three yard touchdown rush twenty four to ten, the eventual final score as the Falcons would never truly threatened. In the last quarter and a half of this game, Ritter Desmond Ridder ends up fifteen of eighteen for one point fifteen in victory,
one touchdown, no picks. He was sacked four times. The Falcons could only muster thirteen first downs in this game and only two hundred twenty one total yards. They were plus three in turnovers. That's the whole story of the game, led directly to seventeen Falcons points. And again, while we talk about in the NBA, if you could just show me three point percentage marks in the box score, I can tell you who won ninety percent of the games NFL,
it's all about the turn horse. I this is lazy, but I say to pick them out.
You're close. It's Green Bay one, Green Bay one for this game, so you are certainly close. And yeah, that game yesterday with at one point Ritter at Burrow, We're battling back and forth for who could have the lowest yardage of the day. It was looking pretty pathetic at one point, but I mean the guy ends up being that efficient. The running games working you just like you said, that whole game was turnovers. But when you project forward in the NFC South. Can that be good enough to win?
It might be you have a running game and play some defense.
What's next?
Up next, We've got to one o'clock Eastern Sunday. Raiders at the Bills. All right, Bill's sight unseen. They play the Jets tonight. You have any play on tonight's game of the way. I do not nothing tonight, but if this number keeps coming down, I'll be on the Bills. All right.
Raiders yesterday get their win, their seventh straight win against the Broncos, different faces, same result. Broncos opened the game with an on side kick. Maybe it can all come down to that one decision at the beginning of the game. Because this was a seventeen to sixteen final, the Broncos Sean Payton decide to open with an onside kick that Denver recovered. But illegal touching negates at Kelly A good lesson in life. No illegal touching from you ever in any circumstance.
We also should have done in April that Sean Payton was gonna onside kick for the first kick.
Yeah, totally should have. So the Raiders start at the Denver forty four to fourth and one at the Denver thirty six excuse me, thirty five, twelve fifty four left. First quarter, Groppolo to DeVante for thirteen, then third and seven from the Denver nineteen with ten to fifty eight left in the quarter. Groppolo runs for it, converts but gets crushed. Frank Clark called for unnecessary roughness. Has to come out briefly. Garppolo does, but then third and goal
from the three. He's back in. He hits the law firm of Jacoby Myers from three out, seven to nothing, Raiders on the short field on the on side kick. Broncos then go eighty six yards and eight thirty eight to tie it up. At set well to try to tie it up, but seven to six, Wilson to a little Jordan Humphrey from five out. Will Luttz misses the point after touchdown with forty four seconds left in the first quarter. Missed extra points never come back to haunt you kept. Oh never, never, never never.
We only said on Primetime Action every single night.
Was the final score of this game? Oh yeah, one point sure. After a Raiders field goal to go up ten to six, the teen's trade punts. Then the Broncos go seventy five yards and two eighteen, spurred on by a big eighteen yard Raiders Pi Wilson to Sutton from five out thirteen to ten Denver, twelve seconds left in the half, and the Broncos get the second half kick off.
This set up beautifully, but the third quarter begins Let's and misses a fifty five yard and nine thirty two left third quarters still thirteen to ten, Raiders matriculate first in goal, the Denver one Groppolo fumble on the exchange from center lands on it second and goal. The one illegal formation second and goal, the six incomplete third and goal Groppolo intended for a mire abdua in the end zone,
ball bounces in the year picked by Kareem Jackson. With two to one left in the third, Broncos matriculate seventy five yards from their own twenty but are stiming at the Raiders five, forced to settle for a Lutz twenty four yard chip shot sixteen to ten, Denver eight to fifty four left. Those of us who had a survivor
play on Denver knew sense to what was coming. Raiders go seventy five yards and six plays, because of course they do, aided by roughing the passer play Garoppolo to Jacoby Myers from six out seventeen to sixteen, Raiders Broncos three and out. They have to punt with five I eight left with the Raiders up seventeen to sixteen. The Broncos would never see the ball again. Big play on third and seven from the Raiders forty four with three minutes left, Myers from Jimmy G for seven with Kareem
Jackson getting nailed with an unsports and like penalty. Then another third and seven at the two minute warning the fleet of foot Jimmy G for eight. Ball game, Raiders win at seventeen to sixteen. Garoppolo twenty of twenty six for two hundred two touchdowns, one picked, he was not sacked. Myers. Jacobe Myers and his debut with the Raiders. Nine catches for eighty one and two touchdowns, ten penalties for ninety
seven yards for the Raiders. That's our first. They got to clean it up for the season, but that's on brand for the Raiders with the penalties, Raiders get it done. That's my one survivor play that it was my frisky survivor entry and down goes that in Week number one, big.
Win by the Raiders. Man, you know, as ugly as we want to call the game, that's a big win going into Denver and picking that up early in the season.
Sight unseen at Buffalo. We don't know obviously what's gonna happen with Buffalo tonight. Obviously it injury will change this. But I said Buffalo minus a full ten because there was nothing about that game that made me think either team was any good.
Yeah, we're DraftKings nine and a half, but it is about split nine and a half ten in the market right now.
Okay, so those are all pretty on point, those guesses so far, those three anyway, Week number one, the point of this is to try to have some discrepancy between the guests, between the guests and the actual line, so hopefully we get into that the record on this show over the years. Seven. There was a famous Dolphins Steelers Monday Night game some years ago where I had it is seven. It ended up as a fourteen point spread that was bizarrow. One strange week on a Monday night game.
We'll come back more of the early kickoffs next week. Week number two. In the NFL, looking for betting value, it's guessing lines, right here on a numbers game as the Sports Betting Network Gil Alexander Kelly Bidlin live from bar Canada at the d Our New Digs here the d Man.
I missed these days, Gill. I miss Monday mornings after NFL Sunday. I mean a how great was NFL Sunday? But where I'm just looking at looking at the odds board and it's lighting up like a Christmas tree right where we finally get everybody posting numbers and everybody betting into him, bing bing bang.
Every numbers movie we get tweets at beating the book. Chris House just sitting around waiting for Gil to come on. I want to see if he has any San Diego bones to throw. WTA no do tennis today. College football, baseball will get it. We'll get back to it tomorrow, I promise. Bainbridge Dewisee. Can't wait to hear your recaps,
even though Chrissy will be sorely missed. Hope you have some explanation for why I've abel declined a holding penalty let Saints kick a fifty two yard field goal instead of backing them up for third and eleven, because I sure as hell don't there's a lot of we have another Vabel decision to get into that. Some people had trouble with I did not, but we'll get into that. Jesse Welch, I'll hit it for you. Gil, I'm a survivor. Hit it.
There.
You go four or five through, which is right on par with basically the field just over twey one percent out in Circus survivor. Gilly Ice, Butcher's my name, Gil. Can you ask your listeners in Virginia if anyone was able to do a teaser at Caesar Sports went yesterday from North Carolina. I couldn't ever find it, By the way, it would have been a lost cause because I was going to use one leg on the Steelers. Oh good for you.
Oh my gosh. Can I cut in real quick?
Gill?
Yes, I figured out, so was I telling you? We were telling these on Caesar's app. We couldn't get in six point teasers right. It was driving me nuts Friday night. Okay, I'm at the Venetian. Yeah, Who's sportsbook now over there? Powered by William Mill We know William Hill Caesar's similar setup. So I'm in there making bets and I'm trying to figure out why can I put a six point teaser in? Well, I figured out the trick to the Caesars app Gil. It only takes about nine steps to finally get to
a six point teams good. Yeah. So if anybody out there is having difficulties, feel free to tweet at me and I'll walk you through. I guess the customer service that Caesar should be doing. Of the nine steps you have to do to actually get a six point teaser.
Caesars, I won't even get that far. Just make it work, it, just make it work to begin with. Also, I feel as though we're all this is from Jesse Wils. I feel as tho we're all collectively cheating on Chrissy. I feel dirty. This is very true me too. And then Mike Borel Gil. I don't want to dicker with the with the inner workings, but can't the suits understand how imported Chrissy is to guessing Liones You're still great, but
I miss him. We all do the kicker digger, the kickery well that Chrisy always said that I don't want a dicker. Yeah, the lines he's traving Tribute toue, what's next? On ten am picking Tribute to Chrissy, we lost your mic by the way Ravens at the Bengals, he said. Ravens I mentioned this about the Vikings being on brand with their loss. Ravens were totally on brand with their
win against the Texans scoreless game. After Houston held the Ravens to a three and out to start the game, Texans go for it fourth and one at their own forty seven ten to fifty nine left first quarter. Stroud sacked by Patrick McQueen for Patrick queen, pardon me for eleven yard loss, but ensuing drive third and six on the Houston sixteen Lamar picked by Steve Nelson. Ravens would score to go up seven to nothing late in the
first quarter on a JK. Dobbins four yard run. Texans down seven to three late in the half, third and fifteen at the Baltimore forty two thirty one seconds left in the half. Roughing the passer penalty called on Baltimore leads to a Fairburn thirty eight yard field goal seven
to six Baltimore at halftime. Third quarter, after Ravens forced to three and out from the Texas to start the half, Baltimore was seventy one yards three of three catches for forty one of those yards to Zay Justice Hill in from two touchdown Baltimore, followed by a two point conversion converted by Hill fifteen to six, and then it became sort of a routine win for Baltimore. Houston goes for
fourth and won at their own forty two. On the subsequent drive, Damian Pierce stopped for no game by Rokwan Smith, again the theme everybody goes for it on fourth down everywhere. Five play drive for Baltimore, helped along by seventeen yard pi Hill in from two, twenty two to six Baltimore thirty one seconds left in the third quarter of Baltimore up twenty two to six, first in ten at their own thirty one, Lamar sacked and fumbled. MJ. Stort recovers,
but the Ravens d holds Texas. The Texans rather to fairburn thirty six yard field goal twenty two to nine, thirteen forty seven left in the fourth. Baltimore adds a field goal twenty five to nine. Final. They may not may it has now come firm. JK. Dobbins lost for the season with a torn achilles attendon, so it was a costly win for the ravens Lamar seventeen of twenty two for one sixty nine, no touchdowns, one picks. He was sacked four times, six carries for thirty eight yards
and a fumble lost. Zay Flowers nine catches for seventy eight. They actually were outgained by the Texans two sixty eight to two sixty five, thirteen penalties for one oh six for Baltimore. And then there was the curious case of the Cincinnati Bengals zero zero game after the team's traded punts. This was the peak of the of the game for the Bengals. Second and five of the Cincinnati twenty one for Cleveland Jerome Fod hit by Logan Wilson, fumbles recovered
by Chadobi a woozy. That is where it peaked for the Bengals, because the Bengals then went punch punts, punch punts, punch punts, punts seven for seven to start the game. In fact, eleven punts in a fumble in the first thirteen combined possessions in this game. The Browns up three to nothing with one thirty six left in the half, they started their own thirty three. They go sixty seven yards, capped by a Deshaun Watson thirteen yard touchdown run with
seventeen seconds left on the clock. Ten to nothing clear at the half. The Browns get the ball first in the second half. Burrow at halftime six of fourteen for thirty six yards, no touchdowns, no picksack ones. The Bengals had a total of three first downs twelve to three in the first down column in favor of the Browns. DeShawn was ten of twenty for eighty five at that point. Not much better, no touchdowns, no pick sack twice. Chubb ten for fifty seven. It was one ninety five ninety
seven advantage to Cleveland total yards of the half. Third quarter, after holding the Browns to a three and out, Bengals don't have to punt for the first time. They go forty yards, helped by a pi Evan McPherson forty two yard field goal, ten to three Cleveland. Could the Bengals make this a game? Nope, couldn't. Third play in suing drive, Watson throws a miserable pass that goes right to a
wide open Dax Hill. Again he plays for the wrong team, plays with the Bengals McPherson, though, misses a fifty one yarder that's followed by a made Hopkins thirty four yarder. It's thirteen to three late third quarter, and then another Cincinnati punt, another Hopkins field goal from forty three, sixteen to three. Bengals drive fourth and four from their own
thirty one ten thirty two left. Burrow sacked by Miles Garrett three plays later to Sean de Harrison Brian from three out twenty four to three after a two point conversion and for all intents and purpose of the competitive portion of the game was over. In fact, after another three and a half for Cincinnati, Burrow would be pulled from the game for Jake Browning. That's how would end
twenty four to three. Burrow fourteen of thirty one for eighty two, right after signing his two hundred seventy five million dollar extension. Two point six yards per attempt, wow gave up two hundred and six rushing yards of the Browns. Browns out first down the Bengals twenty one to six, three hundred and fifty to one forty two in total yards. Bengals were plus two and turnovers that didn't help them. They're punter Brad Robbins ten punts, ten punts for a
total of four hundred and nine yards. Was this the most surprising performance of the week to you the Bengals, Oh, we don't have your mind anymore. Well, between that and Seattle, that would be the debate. I'll say, Cincinnati minus three and a half, hopefully r Mike works and a half. Okay, three and three and a half and ha okay, okay,
a couple three still out there, he says. I got the Cincinnati minus three and a half, so close, but you still there are some threes out there, he says, Hu DraftKings just went to three, just went to three, just went to three and a half.
Everywhere we're alf okay.
Don't we don't have you? What's the next game? And I'll go Seahawks and Lions, everybody, Seahawks and Lions. Lions of course, coming off the Thursday night went against the Kansas City Chiefs, New Digs. We're working it out so we don't have to get into that game. But Seattle again, between them and the Bengals, for the most surprising performance.
The Bengals generally Seattle when it comes to the pro betters that we talked to all of last week, and again this drives home the point that I was making. You know, most of this offseason, none of us knows a damn thing. Seattle against the Rams, they get crushed thirty to thirteen. Seattle thirty six yard field goal on their open drive, followed by sixteen plays seventy five yard touchdown to drive for the Rams. Kyron Williams in from one,
seven to three Rams. Seattle then goes seventy five yards on twelve plays, no third downs needed, Gino to Metcalf from ten, ten to seven Hawks, thirteen to seven game, now the Hawks in front. The Rams try to cut it to three with a Maher fifty seven yard field will try. It was block blocked. It ends up with a Jason Meyer's thirty nine yard field goal to try to add to the lead, but he joints it off the right, up right with thirty one seconds left in
the half. No good. Then Meyer misses a sixty four yard at ten for the Rams last play of the half, still thirteen to seven Seahawks, though going in to the locker room, Rams go seventy six yards to start the second half. This is where you're like, oh, my God, Kiron Williams, the fifth round pick out of Notre Dame last year, in from seven fourteen to thirteen Rams, they'd never relinquish the lead again. In fact, the Seahawks would
never score again. Rams out of Maher thirty eight yard after forcing a Seattle three and out, then after forcing a Hawk's punt, the Rams go seventy six yards to two at well on the receiving end of fifty of those yards are in from one Rams up twenty four to thirteen In the shaker of the day nine to forty five left another Seattle three and out, followed by a Maher fifty four yarder to make it twenty seven to thirteen Rams with four to fifty seven left thirty
to thirteen. Final genos sixteen of twenty six for one twelve. Add his performance to some of the anemic offensive quarterback lines. On the box scores one touchdown, no picks, two sacks. The Seahawks only mustered thirteen first downs, there were two of nine on third downs. They only had one hundred and eighty total yards. They were outgained four twenty six to one eighty three thirty four to ninety five in the passing game thirty nine twenty three to twenty thirty seven.
That's thirty nine minutes and twenty three seconds to twenty thirty seven disadvantage in time of possession. In fact, in the second half, the Rams ran forty eight plays and the Seahawks ran thirteen. I got Detroit minus four and a half. Here Kelly's holding up sides. He says, it's Detroit minus five and a half. Okay, I think I might have my first play. That seems like a little bit of an overreaction. Seattle's getting five and a half because you can't. You can't overreact to these first games
that much, did you. He's just making hand signals. He's like, I don't know, Gil, I can't talk. That could be the first play week two, right there, Seattle, I think get him a five and a half. We'll come back more early games. Right here on the Numbers game and visa these sports Betting network, it's Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Bilan live from Bark, Canada at the d again for the DK network audience, and you're like, well, what is all this? He's going through all the games and then
he's making a guess. This is an exercise that we have done, you know, thirteen years, ten of which we did with Chrissy Andrews, my Mishpocha who runs at the South Point Hotel Sportsbook down at the tip of the strip. And what it is is, I'm in a cocoon. Once I watched the games yesterday, I don't know the lines for week number two. I make sure that I don't know them. I eschew all looking at any kind of media to know that, and I give my best guess as to what the line is. It's not about my guess.
You can guess along with it. It's about wherever the difference is between the guests and the actual So what with the games that we just went through, I guess four and a half on Detroit over Cincinnati. You tell me that it's five and a half, Kelly, that's the first one where I'm like, oh, that is a little much, because again, if you just go back before yesterday, right, right, would that be five and a half, Because I wasn't really that high on Detroit to begin with.
It's not even that. It's go back before Thursday, right right, Thursday Thursday? And I think you're right, But I guess The only one is this is still in that dead number range, right from the four and a half to five and a half. Yeah, so I think it's more because I kind of circled this one too. It's wait to see if we tick up to a six at any point this week.
Yeah, I would agree with that, and it would be a by on absolutely. And by the way, the recaps get short, come come our number two because we will have gone through all of them. One more lengthy one, I believe, coming up. What do you got here?
Yeah, and real quick before we get to that for you know, for the new audience that might be tuned into this for the first time. I think this is a good practice skill. Like we talked to professional handicappers all the time that have their own power ratings set for the NFL. This is a little bit more like I would suggest if you're an NFL better that's just getting into betting the NFL, you know, even semi seriously
or more or more seriously. This is a practice, the practice that you do every week, a practice that you should get into yourself for just predicting what you think the line should or guessing what you think the line should be, seeing how that matches up to the sports book. It's an easier way instead of formulating your own power ratings and going down that hole.
Well, the biggest thing is we often the instinct that we have here Monday morning is often the right one, and then we spend the rest of the week convincing ourselves otherwise. We have lots of guests on the show. They give reasons for why they might not agree with you, and oftentimes again, if you just come back to this, it's your best.
Pace, which was you all last year? A well last year? Okay, let's go keep going.
I'm not going to read all the two I just want to read these. Now we have your mic back, I just want to read a couple of weeks real quick. Clone Okay, this is clone Bone and Kevin Kelly finishing the rest of guessing lines from the restroom. Sounds like that with his microphone out Mike Zill's Duke ninety. Hey, it looks like Chrissy pulled Kelly's microphone, like he pulled Vesi's heading privileges Joe Abraham Chris has sabotaged Kelly's mic.
I hope we had no parlay card issue.
Steven Vegas Stephn Vegas when he says, what a gil just guess for Detroit Seattle? I had minus three? Okay, so he's even lower than me. So that's what this is all.
About, absolutely all right. Keith von Cruzen Sunday one, Eastern Chargers.
At Titans, Chargers at Titans Chargers in defeat yesterday, thirty six to thirty four, talk about on brand. Oh my god, it's the same old Chargers. Miami opened. What a game this was. They opened the game by going seventy three yards. The Chargers two, led by sixteen yard completion to Tyrek in a thirty five yard a to waddle from Tua, but first and goal to two two of fumbles on the exchange room center. Nick Williams recovers at the six, and then the Charges go ninety four yards cap by
an Eckler one plunge seven and nothing. Chargers. At that point you're like, oh, same old Dolphins. Dolphins then go seventy five yards mostered in from two after a big two at a river creak craft completion and a face mask later on, Chargers and Dolphins tied at seven, three and out for the Chargers. Miami matriculates again seventy two yards and settle for Jason Sanders twenty three yard chip shot to go up ten to seven. Three drives Miami unstoppable,
but only up a field goal. Chargers come right back downfield. They go seventy five yards fifty five on an Eckler scamper longest run of his career, fourteen to ten Chargers after Herbert hits parum from one out nine oh seven left, second quarter, then to Miami three and out. Charges forced to pun Miami with a fourth and seven at the Charges forty two two thirty one left, two at a Durham Smith for ten first down to extend the drive.
Five plays later, two at a creak Craft one yard touchdown past seventeen fourteen Miami one forty two left in the second quarter. Then Dicker sinks a fifty yarder to tie it up for the Chargers with nine seconds left in the half. It's seventeen to seventeen and you figure, oh, they're going into the locker room like this. Nope, tu to waddle. Remember there's nine seconds two at a waddle for twenty two. Then with two seconds left, a PI on J. C. Jackson mental error Sampers forty one yard
field goal twenty to seventeen. That ends up being all they needed to win the game. That field goal. Remember those nine seconds.
How did Jackson not like feel or notice like the two safeties he had helping behind him, he like took out the took him out like it was a you know, receiver was gonna catch and walk into the end zone.
Brutal. Like we said, those Tampa Bay too, you know, those Minnesota turnovers left to three led to three Tampa Bay points. That's all they needed for the margin of victory. How about that for the margin of victory. Here first drive of the second half, Chargers go seventy five yards Herbert in from one, twenty four to twenty Chargers. Then Miami drives downfield. This is a boxing match. They have a third and twelve with the Charges twenty six four to thirty nine left. Third quarter two a pick by
Jackson this time. Jackson redeems himself, but the Chargers, starting at their four, forced to punt fourth and fourth and thirteen from their own one bad punt from JK. Scott. Dolphins get the ball to Charges thirty five. One play two a to Tyreek for thirty five it's twenty seven to twenty four Miami two twelve left third quarter, just Haymakers. Chargers then go seventy five Herbert to Eckler for thirty five. The big play Josh Wall Kelly in from two with
fourteen minutes left, thirty one to twenty seven Chargers. Miami settles for a Jason Sanders forty five yard field goal with ten oh three left to cut the lead to thirty one to thirty. Then Chargers get a Dicker twenty five yarder thirty four to thirty Chargers. Miami starts at their own twenty five three to fifty three left. Third play, third and ten from Miami twenty five three forty seven left, two out of Tyree for forty seven. I have no
idea how the ball got through him. Five plays later, third and goal from the Chargers four two out, a Tyreek touchdown. Once again, I have no idea how the ball got through thirty six thirty four. Sanders misses the pat with one forty five left. You're like, oh, the door is open.
Left him too much time.
Same old Dolphins, and then out of nowhere Kelly. All of a sudden, the Miami defense shows up for the first time in the whole game. First and ten at the Chargers thirty five with one thirty eight left, intentional grounding on Herbert when he was pressured, then sacked by
Zach Sealer on second down. Then after picking up seventy on third and thirty, Herbert sacked again, this time by Jalen Phillips and Justin Bethel ballgame, Miami wins thirty six thirty four, Herbert twenty three of thirty three for two twenty eight, one touchdown, no picks, stack three times five of eighteen on the ground with a touchdown Eckler. He filled up the box score sixteen for one to seventeen on the ground with a touchdown four for forty seven.
In the passing game, they were outgained. The Chargers were by the Dolphins five thirty six to four to thirty three. We'll get the Dolphins a little more later, four sixty six to one ninety nine. In the passing game plus two and turnovers, the Chargers were the to of fumble lost at the Chargers two yard line on the opening drive being the huge one, but the Dolphins get it done. Chargers lose Tennessee the complete opposite kind of game Tennessee
in the Saints, Tennessee loses sixteen to fifteen. Amani Hooker of the Saints on the opening kickoff was stripped. The Titans had to settle for a field goal, Get used to a field goal Fest three to nothing, six to three Tennessee. As the teams traded field goals third and ten at the Tennessee fourteen car hit ruled in complete on the field whistle blows on review looked like a fumble. Titans would have to settle for the recovery, but instead
of air scoop and score instead ruled incomplete. Blake group thirty three yard field goals six to six. Following drive third and five at their own thirty six forty eight left second quarter, Tannahill looking for DeAndre Hopkins, forces it into coverage. Marshawn Latimore picks it up at the Saints Gang capitalized, forced a punt, Titans go down get a Folk thirty one yard field goal Nick Folk nine to six Tennessee. How bad was Ryan Tannehill and he sucks? Oh my god, was he bad?
Ryan Levis already started.
Derek Carr third and eight at the Tennessee thirty one thirty seven seconds left in the half, picked by Amani Hooker, nine to six. At the half, teams were Both teams were two of fourteen combined on third downs in this game. The Titans were zero for six in the first half. To that point, they were two of fourteen. Third quarter, fourth play of the half, Tannehill picked by Marcus May Downfield, Saints get it at their own seven, get a big
Cardo a Lobve forty five yard game. They settle for another fifty two yard field goal from group nine to nine is a group of Group I don't know. Teams trade punts third and five for Tennessee at their own sixteen three to fourteen left in the third quarter. Tannahill picked by Paulison Adebo five plays thirty three yards Karda
Rashija heat from nineteen owne sixteen to nine Saints. We finally have a touchdown that would be the winning score because next drive, Tannehill first and ten at the New Orleans forty seven fleeflick or Tannehill misses a wide open Chickazima Conkuo eventually settles for a Folk forty five yarder.
Sixteen to twelve. New Orleans eleven twelve left. After forcing a Saints punt, Titans started their own twenty seven six forty two left, get to a fourth and six at the New Orleans eleven two to twenty left, with all timeouts and two minute warning left, they elect to kick a field goal down for Folk from twenty nine to sixteen to fifteen. Did you have a problem with that? Pearls was texting me, owing me up. Yeah, have a problem even with the timeouts on the two minute warning. Interesting,
I did not, I did not. Saints, I get it, but yeah, problem. Well, Saints start with two twelve left, needing a first down. They get just that third and six car to Rashid Rahichi. Pardon me, Rashid Shaheed forty one yard game with one fifty five left, but Shaheed led out of bounds on the catch. Titans still have two timeouts left, but third and fourth of the Tennessee twenty Jamal Williams for eleven. He actually gets the ball poked out Kevin Byard by Kevin Bayered, but Williams lands
on it. Ball game sixteen to fifteen. New Orleans Tannehill sixteen of thirty four for eight, no touchdowns, three picks, sack three times, Derek Henry just fifteen of sixty three but two of fifty six in the passing game. Hopkins seven for sixty five in his debut. I said the Chargers minus four and a half on the road against Tennessee.
Chargers minus three painted everywhere has not moved from the opener. Really, Yeah, and I got that one circle too, Gilly. We might be another super chat.
I like the Seahawks and I like the Chargers. Wow, it's only three three. Tannehill's terrible, terrible, terrible. We'll come back more early games. MLA Game's Next Numbers gave Visa the Sports Betting Network.
The numbers told the story they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander Gone vs.
Our Number two, a numbers game at Visa Dsports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa AP Game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, now LeBatard on DK network. We're by ourselves here on VSA. That's right, that's right. Continuing with Week two guessing line. By the way, just a couple other notes here. Johnny Ringo, I'm gonna be heartbroken without the I like your number better? Yeah, how many of those did Chrissy like my number better? On? I wonder can we get a shot at Christy again?
By the way, everybody real quick five show. There's Chrissy right there. Two and a half a show, Two and a half a show. Rob Platt's Good morning, Gillan Kelly. I know this is off sports talk, but I just wanted to send my prayers to all the people that were affected and still dealing with the tragic and discussing events of this day. He says, twenty four years ago. It was actually twenty two years ago.
Amen.
US Canadians will hashtag never forget. Absolutely, yeah, twenty two years since since nine eleven in two thousand and one, My goodness, twenty two years. We all remember where we were, that is for sure. This is from Las Vegas, Chris, no artful way to segue from that. But he says about your Caesar's complain he says, he goes six point teasers, easy,
try a seven point teaser on the Caesars app. He said that was he said, they didn't let you slide the bar to seven without it bringing you back to six. Oh yeah, no explanation. This is what you're gonna get.
You're gonna get an air message, and then what you're gonna do is you're gonna slide it over to six and a half, and then it's gonna go to an air message again. It's gonna allow you to slide back to six, where you'll finally see the odds and then you can input your bed.
Gill I swear to Chris Felika at Live Text that he goes, you mean the Chargers are poorly coach Daniel Jones at Gito Smith stink. Justin Fields isn't gonna be the MVP. The forty nine Ers are really good. I'm stunned by all of these. The more things change, the boy they stay the same. He also has a new numbers game Bingo card. He says a homeless person at the bar, Mike's go out, Jackpot's lot machines, club music over speakers, then go for all all right, we.
Gotta get to a whole one team. We got a butcher all right. On Sunday, one Eastern Bears at Bucks.
Okay, we talked about both of these games. Bears lose to the Packers big and Tampa Bay upsets the Vikings. Chicago Tampa Bay Fields, by the way, in that game and defeat was twenty four to thirty seven for two sixteen, one touchdown, one pick. You sacked four times nine for fifty nine on the ground of fumbles law one fumble lost as we talked about, and the Bears minus two and turnovers, the big one the pick six to Rasul Douglas.
By the way, let me just say this about Fields, and I have ever fleus to be the first coach fireds. I'm no fan, but Field's escapability is something to be whole. Sure, he's amazing to watch in that regard. Anyway, Tampa Bay Mayfield and victory was twenty one of thirty four for one seventy three, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked ones.
The Vikings were outgained by Tampa Bay as we mentioned, three sixty nine to two forty two, three twenty eight to one sixty nine, or the Vikings outgained Tampa Bay three sixty nine to two forty two. Uh, but they were minus three in turnovers, and as we mentioned those three Tampa Bay points where the margin of victory that those turnovers led to. I will god, this is hard. Is Chicago still like a tick of a favorite minus one and a half.
Oh wow, No, this is Bucks three everywhere, I think pretty much everywhere open one or two two and a half still out there open two and a half most places I saw yesterday. But it is Bucks two and a half. Three is what we're looking like in this game.
So I don't think it should be three. But this is one where I'm not racing to bet.
You're right, Yeah, no, I hear you. I think that that that Bears team.
This is the game I want no part of. This is the megapod question. I don't think I want any part of this game.
My only respe I responded the way I did to your fields this capability thing, because it's you. You. You might have just nailed the entire list of positives when it comes to the Chicago Bears.
That's exactly so.
Yeah, I'm not racing to bettit either, all right. I want to keep on Cruz Deer Sunday one Eastern Chiefs at Jags.
The big one, all right, that is the That is a nice game. Chiefs of course coming off the Thursday night defeat, so they'll be on extra rest here. We do have to go through the Jags game. The Jags beat the Colts and somehow managed to cover. This is another one where if you have the Colts that you
didn't cover, yeap oh geez. After three three an ounce to start the game, two from Indianapolis, one from Jacksonville, third and seven from the Jacksonville h third and seven to four Jacksonville the Indianapolis nine, Lawrence to Ridley on a scramble seven to nothing Jacksonville. Calvin Ridley coming back from the ARLA in Florida with a touchdown monster game and suing drive. Colts go seventy five yards, culminating in Anthony Richardson designed run two yards up the gut start
the second quarter seven to seven. Next Jaggs drive Lawrence intended for Tank Bigsby intercepted by Tony Brown on the bounce, but Jags d holds on Richardson's soft for no gain on fourth and one at the Jacksonville sixteen with eleven to fifty eight left in the second quarter. By the way, Kelly, Colts also failed to convert a fourth and fourth at Jacksonville forty two with eight fifty five left second quarter on an incomplete pass intended for Michael Pittman Junr. So
it's still seven to seven. By the way, I was asking Kelly, you know, oh, what did you think about this sport down? And you said, appropriately you're on the air, there's a thousand fourth downs down. Really, you have no idea what's what when you're doing a show, if you're doing a show during this, so I'll stop asking you. Jaggs then go fifty eight yards of the house on
a Lawrence's Zay Jones eighteen yard touchdown pass. By the way, that was a thing of beauty at Zay Jones catch in the corner fourteen to seven, Jacksonville four fifty six left first halp and Suing drive first and ten at the Jacksonville forty one four nineteen left. Second quarter, Richardson Deon Jackson, hit by Andre Cisco fumbles. Angelo Blackson recovers for Jacksonville, but the Jags can't capitalize. Forced to punt. Third quarter after the Jags forced to a three and out.
Forced into a three and out, Indianapolis goes sixty three yards Richardson to Pittman Junior for thirty nine fourteen to fourteen. First touchdown pass of Richardson's career. Who was the best rookie performance yesterday, by the way with the court Oh, Anthony Richardson, Yeah, I think so. I was beyond impressed. Jags follow with a field goal drive Brandon McManus from forty five to seventeen to fourteen Jags. Now, after the Colts go three and out, the Jags go ford fourth
and one at the Indianapols forty nine. Lawrence to having ingram no gain, turned the ball over four plays later, still seventeen to fourteen Jags three to nineteen left third quarter, fourth and one for the Colts of the Jacksonville forty two. Dion Jackson hit for a four yard loss, actually fumbles after getting hit by Tyson Campbell and recovered by Devin Lloyd. Next play, now, this is with Jacksonville up. Lawrence sacked by DeForest Buckner, fumbles. None of the Jags really react.
The whistle doesn't blow. Tank Bigsby of the Jags has the ball standing upright and not moving. It gets slapped out of his hands by an alert Zye Franklin. Buckner picks it up twenty six yards, scoop and score to the house touchdown, Colts twenty one to seventeen. They are beating the Jaguars. Could this happen? Teams trade three and ouns Jags fourth and one at the Indianapolis forty eight. How many fourth downs were attempted in this game alone?
My goodness, thirteen oh one left Trevor Lawrence stuff for no game. So the Colts have the ball up in this game and it would take two scores for them not to cover. Well, guess what happens? Colts forced upunt Jamal Agnew returns at forty eight yards, flips the field. Jags started at the Indianapolis forty six. They end up with a fourth and two of the Indianapolis fifteen with seven to twenty six left. They go for it, convert
on a Lawrence to Zay Jones four yard completion. Three plays later, Bigsby in from one twenty four to twenty one. Jacksonville ensuing drives second play second in ten at their own twenty five. Richardson pick by Tyson Campbell three plays later, ets Enn from twenty six thirty one twenty one Jacksonville with four to oh eight left. They are gonna cover?
Or are they? Colts started at their own twenty five four oh eight left matriculated down the field threatening the back door cover convert a fourth and five at the Jacksonville eight with one twenty eight left on a Richardson five yard run which knocked him out of the game. It ends up fourth and goal at the one with fifty two seconds left total. Plankoh Gardner, Minshew, they're all plink.
O the place you would love to have Anthony Richardson two right, fourth and one. Oh, just fall forward with Anthony Richardson.
Let me just say this, ladies and gentlemen, if you ever ever forget that these games are all plink oh please. Week one should be a reminder. Minshow in Minshew incomplete intended for Pittman ballgame. Colts having no timeouts left thirty one to twenty one Jags Lawrence twenty four of thirty two for two forty one, two touchdowns, one Picky a sack twice. Ridley in his first game back from the infamous Parlan in Florida eight catches for one on one in a touchdown. Is this the game of the week?
I would say Casey's blanket minus three. I'm gonnay, it's a blanket minus three at Jacksonville.
Okay, interesting line movement on this game. We did see threes. It is two and a half everywhere there, although except we do have a two in the Warwick get plays too right behind his here at SERG Sports doo w Yeah, yep, So coming on down on that number.
A little bit, Kelsey gonna play. Sounds like that's all I like it. Yes, if it's two or two and a half, I'll take the show.
They were pulling the whole sounds like he could have gone on Thursday if they really needed to wanted to hold him out.
Big game this week. Oh there's still though, There still is no Chris Jones, So maybe I should pause.
Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely, I guess I in Jacks, I guess I thought would look a little bit better yesterday. But the Colts Anthony Richardson was really really impressive to me. All Right, we'll keep on cruising here. Sunday one Eastern Colts at Texans Colts we just talked about.
Richardson was twenty four for thirty seven for two twenty three, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked four times, ten carries for forty yards in the touchdown. Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, c J. Stroud in defeat. We talked about the game against Baltimore. Twenty eight for forty four for two forty two, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked five times. He did have four carries for twenty yards, but he lost a fumble. Houston in the and out gain Baltimore. As
we mentioned, two sixty eight to two sixty five. Houston also had nine penalties for eighty eight yards in Tamico Ryan's first game as a head coach. Boy, oh man, what should this be? I have Houston minus one and a half? Am I way off on this?
No? No, no, you're like all over it? It is Uh, it is Houston minus one at DraftKings. There's a couple one and a half's out there, one or one and a half Houston.
If you had asked me to guess about my guesses, I would have said I would have been way more off on this than I was on the Bears Tampa Bay game.
Yeah. If if you'd posted three either way on this game, I don't think I'd be shocked.
Yeah.
I don't want any part of this either. I well, no outcome would surprise.
Assuming Anthony Richardson will play in this game? Uh? Yeah, I nothing unless I don't know, if this ticks up a little bit, maybe Colton a teaser. I was impressed with richardson yesterday. Man, I'll tell you they like small winning we for me could have been huge. I was loaded up with matt On. Those Richards were Richards and rushing props. The only reason he didn't get there because the guy passed so well. I mean, he was completing passes early in the game that he just didn't he didn't have to.
Well, let's do that review so here. I was three and two in the contest. I deserve Dallas. That was my favorite play of the week. We'll get to that obviously, easy peasy. And I think I deserve Baltimore. I don't think I deserve Philadelphia.
Yep, me either.
And in my two losses, I certainly earned the Pittsburgh loss, and then what was my other loss I can't even remember now. I had Seattle, Oh Denver. Denver was my loss, and I think I earned that. I mean that could have gone but there was no bad beat involved anyway. So I mean the could I have just as easily been two and three, absolutely right, right, And that's probably That's probably a short week in terms of what could
have gone either way. Usually there's two or three of those gone three and two.
I didn't have Jags as one of my one of my plays, but I had him as a bet like there are. There are a lot of lucky bets I won yesterday for all the for the weeks that we know were coming. Gil where we're gonna to complain about a bad beating too, I will take it today where I want a couple of lucky bets.
That's exactly that's exactly right. We're going to keep track of which could have gone our way gone against us right now, I am one luckier than the.
Plus two in plus yeah plus one.
And by the way, just in general, how much more of a money making vehicle is college football than this? This is my sugar? Oh yeah, totally, Oh but we love it so more. Week two lines to guess on the other side, numbers game Visa the Sports Betting Network. Numbers game on the Sports Betting Network. Before you make your next bet, be sure to visit visa visa dot com. That is, to check the current betting splits data. I want to know where the money and bets are moving
every game. Well, betting splits pages updated with draftings odds every five minutes, so you because he changes in all the action. Find out where the public's betting based on the number of tickets and where the money does not match the public opinion. You can check out not just today's future events as well betting splits, yet another way that Visa is here to make you a smarter, better year round. Check him out all of today's betting splits for every game at vsin dot com, we get tweets
at beating the book. Let me just read a couple. These are all tribute to Chrissy. Chris Folica. Feels like an empty Monday now that I will not hear Chrissy Telgil, I like your number better. This is from Nicholas Griggs. I'll especially miss hearing Chrissy. Chrissy's phone notifications. You always know when he received an email that's correct.
We have a let. We have a lot of serial abusers.
Of that here at Visa and Buddhist Man. Chrissy unplugging Kelly's headset Mike Cable mid segment is a heel turn that almost nobody expected. Oh man, so so far, so far. I like the Seahawks and the Chargers.
The best Chargers are my favorite so far. It's not a game I bet yet. But as we were kind of just talking break or coming right into breaking, I was like, I don't know whether to bet this three to hour hope that it goes to a two and a half. I just don't know who's betting on the Titans after yesterday.
A surprising line to me, Yeah, I think that's are we in the afternoon yet?
By the way, uh first afternoon game four oh five Eastern forty Niners at the Unstoppable Rams. By the way, that's yes, I lost money on that.
Those Rams and the Seahawks are the one that they quote unquote sharp betters got the most wrong.
Oh oh, were the sharps all over Seattle?
Oh my god?
I thought it was all the squares like meta that.
Were until the move at the end. I guess, but I'm just saying anecdotally over this summer. Yeah.
But and we even talked about it on Friday, like, yes, I probably made too much of it. But like the Stafford and his receivers thing, Stafford carved it up with nobody wide receivers out there.
Get into that a second, because I think I have a bet that I'd like to suggest, By the way, that was the uh, that was the thing about the losing the Broncos entry. I had five entries. Uh, two were on the Ravens, two were on the Commodoores, and one was on the Broncos. And again I will say that you played a win, but the first five weeks we don't know anything. Just try to play it, you know, try to survive.
I one got through, No big deal, You're one game easy all the way with the Commanders.
By the way we got we got super fortunate with that get even. I can't even be upset about the Broncos because you know I would have had the Seahawks if not the Broncos on that one. Niners oil boy? Who did was I? Was I wrong about this one? And I'm a Niners guy? Why did I? Why did I talk myself into the Steelers.
Because Mike Thomas ever had a losing season as a Steelers head coach.
Come on, you do this start for your under After the Niners held Pittsburgh to a three and own on the opening drive, Niners first drive, fourth and one at the Pittsburgh forty five eleven thirty four left first quarter, zero zero game, perty to Kittle for eleven three plays later, perty do I yuke from eight out, seven to nothing, Niners first touchdown of the NFL season, by the way,
for anyone. When the Niners scored that ensuing drive third play, third and five at their own thirty two eight oh eight left, first quarter, piket picked by Sharvarius Ward, they settle for a Jake Moody forty one yard field goal. Ten to nothing, Niners four to thirty eight left first quarter totally yards. First quarter Niners one hundred and forty Steelers two. After Steelers third straight three play drive to
start the season, the Niners go sixty eight yard. It's pretty dauke from nineteen out, seventeen to nothing, Niners thirteen thirty left in the second quarter. Next Steelers drive, picket throws it right to Fred Warner, who drops it. Could have been even worse another three it out instead. Steelers first five possessions, zero first downs, one net yard. But the Steelers start the six drive down twenty to nothing with one thirty five left in the half at their
own five. They go ninety five yards, culminating in a picket to Friar mooth three yard touchdown pass with nine seconds left in the half, twenty to seven. Here come
the Steelers. Nope, perdy by the Way fourteen for twenty one one fifty four first half, two touchdowns, no pick sack ones two twenty two to seventy seven total yards advantage for San Francisco even after that ninety five yard drive sacks included by the way fourteen to six advantage on first downs twenty one ozh six to eight fifty four in time of possession first half in favor of
the Niners. Third quarter it ended right here. Second play, just when you thought, okay, could the Steelers make this a game? Nope, McCaffrey sixty five yards the house twenty seven to seven. Niners, Momentum gone. Pittsburgh punt, San Francisco pont Pittsburgh punt first and ten for the for the Niners at the Pittsburgh thirty eight perty sacked by T. J. Watt, fumbles, Watt recovers. Steelers end up with the fourth and fourth, the San Francisco eight, with two h six left in
the third quarter. They go for it down twenty pick it incomplete intended for Friarmouth Niners going to win it thirty to seven perty nineteen for twenty nine for two twenty two touchdowns, no pick, sack three times three for twenty on the ground, he lost the fumble McCaffrey twenty two for one point fifty two in a touchdown. He's pretty good. I Uke eight catches one twenty nine, two touchdowns, out gain Pittsburgh three ninety one to two thirty nine.
The outtime of possession them thirty seven twenty three to twenty two thirty seven. They did have eleven penalties for eighty five yards. The Rams, as we talked about, already beat already beating the Seahawks. Stafford ended up twenty four of thirty eight for three thirty four at Well two two at Well six for one nineteen. And you're ready for a long shot offensive rookie of the year play.
You have it to me.
Pooka Nkua. Yeah, Pooka Nakua. Everybody of the Rams ten catches for one hundred and nineteen yards on fifteen targets. Shout out to Michael Montesano's son. He was all over this first fifth round pick out of byu Puka Nakua ten for one to nineteen on fifteen targets they held. Seattle.
The Rams did to thirteen first downs, two of nine on third downs, one hundred and eighty total yards, again outgaining them four twenty six to one eighty three, thirty four to ninety five in the passing game, thirty nine twenty three to twenty thirty seven in time of possession. They outscored Seattle twenty three to nothing in the second half. All of that said, I'll say San Francisco by a full touchdown seven on the road.
This was I think most shocking result to me of the week, and it is dead seven everywhere San Francisco seven painted across the board. If I like it, you're absolutely on it, and that might actually end up being a bed for me.
Okay on the Niners.
On the Niners, Okay, yeah, I don't trust Show me again, Stafford, Show me again against them. This is not the Seahawks defense that you're going up against. Is the Niners defense. Show me it again against that defense.
All right?
Four O five Eastern Giants at Cardinals.
Giants and Cardinal Oh boy, Giants. Case you missed this last night, well you didn't miss much. Giants take the opening drive all the way to the Dallas eight yard line. This is the first drive of the game, and you're like, oh, boy, Giants, boy, they are something special. That's the peak of their game right there. Third and two. Andrew Thomas, who hadn't false started all year last year, fall starts. Then John Michael Schmidz Junior snaps the ball over Daniel Jones' head. Jones
recovers for a fourteen yard loss. Then Graham Gno. Forty five yard field goal blocked by Noah Igbanaghini, who jumps over the line blocks the kIPS, blocks the kick, scoops it and takes it to the house. Six to nothing Dallas. Brandon Aubrey hooks the extra point wide left. Next Giants drive three and out. Micah Parsons with the sack to
force the punt. Cowboys next drive, third and fourth, their own thirty two big dack to Lamb forty nine yard passing catch eventually leads to a Brandon Aubrey twenty one yard chip shot nine to nothing Dallas, three twenty one left in the first quarter. You're still like, Okay, what's
only nine to nothing? Sirt ball game? Sure, subsequent Giants drive after DeMarcus Lawrence sack on first down two plays later, third and nineteen from their own sixteen two thirty left in the first quarter, Jones intended for Saquon perfectly timed hit by Trayvon Diggs. Ball pops up in the air, snatched by Deron Bland twenty two yards to the hiszy sixteen to nothing Dallas twenty two left in the first quarter. And now you're like, oh boy, Giants three and out.
I mean, I like the Cowboys big. I don't know if I like the misplay second quarter, Dallas matriculates after three and out. Dallas matriculates settle for a thirty eight yard field goal from Aubrey nineteen to nothing, ten to fifty five left. Next drive, and here's where it just gets comical. First play, first and tenth the rown, twenty five,
Jones picked by Stefan Gilmore. They take over. Dallas does it the Giants thirty eight five plays later, pollared in from two twenty six to nothing, Dallas eight h three left, eighty bar the door down twenty six. Giants convert a fourth in five of the Dallas forty eight twenty two to Waller throw the ball. The waller come on, but it ends at a mystic a no thirty six yard attempt at that point is just comical, twenty six to nothing.
It remains into the half and then third quarter. Dallas takes the opening drive seventy five yards and four minutes fifty nine seconds. Pollared in from one out thirty three to nothing with fumble luck thrown in by the way when Pollard coughed it up and Dallas recovered at the four. No point in continuing other than why we're Dak Pollard in lamb still in the game? Fourth?
No idea? I mean, okay, I was screaming about that last night, but then I remembered earlier in the day, Gill when I when I wondered multiple times, hey, shouldn't a lot of these teams maybe be playing some of these guys in the preseason, So I may I kind of backtracked and thought, maybe it's some of that going on.
But I go, in Dallas's case, you win at forty to nothing, get him out of the game. Jones ends up fifteen or twenty eight for the Giants for only one oh four, no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked seven times, thirteen to forty three on the ground. Giants held at one hundred and seventy one total yards. They were minus three and turnovers led directly to fourteen Dallas points Arizona first. They just handed this game to Washington.
Washington tried to give him the game. Arizona wouldn't take it. First quarter, first intenth to Washington eight for the Commodes. Howell sacked by Cameron Thomas, fifteen yard un sportsman like penalty. Three plays later, Another fifteen yard penalty on the Cardinals two plays later, a thirty seven yard PI because you
can't cover the incomparable Terry McLaurin. Two plays later, Howel to Robinson from eight out, seven to nothing, Skinnies seven to three, Commodores first intended on twenty nine, fourteen to fifty four left second quarter, Howell hit as he throws picked up by Zavian Collins Matt Prater from fifty four to seven to six. Washington first and ten at the Arizona nineteen for the Taco holders, seven to six, eight fifty five left second quarter, Antonio Gibson hit by Victor
jimuki Je. Zaven Collins recovers seven to six, game, third in ten in their own twenty six, one oh two left in the half. Howell sacked by Dennis Ardeck, fumble scoop by Cameron Thomas two yards of the goal line, touchdown, Arizona thirteen to seven, Cardinals thirteen to ten at the half. After the Commanders, the Commandeers and matriculate sixty nine yards and forty six seconds and get a sly thirty yard
field goal. Howell first half fifteen of twenty four for one to sixty nine, one touchdown, one pick, sack, four times fumble loss. Washington football team sixteen first downs, Cardinals five in the first half one seventy one to oneif seventeen total yards advantage, but they were minus three in
turnovers minus three and turnovers down three. Third quarter Cardinals opened up half of the field goal drive Prader from thirty seven to sixteen to ten, Skins punt cards, punt Skins punt cards have third and fifteen from their own thirty five nine seconds left in the third quarter. Montes sweat sacks, Dobbs, fumbles drawn, Payne recovers. Washington takes over
seven plays later, third and goal the six. Howel takes it in himself and the Burgundian gold leads seventeen to sixteen, eleven forty eight left, and after the team's trade punts Arizona once again with Dobbs fumbling, Abdula Anderson recovering, and Washington goes on to hold on to the game. Based on those turnovers, twenty to sixteen, two thirty three left is when they went up. They never relinquished the lead. We'll get the guests on that and all the other games.
That big matchup between the Giants and the Cardinals next numbers game VSA the Sports Betting Network again tomorrow. On the show, we'll get into the great tennis weekend, obviously Coco Goff and Novak Djokovic winning the US Open. We'll get into just an amazing stretch of baseball where, by the way, you see this, like Felika texted me yesterday, it goes you see, the Yankees got no hit through ten and a third. Yesterday we're all watching football, so
we're locked in. The Yankees got so again. The Yankees got no hit through ten and a third and this won the game.
Oh my gosh, no, I did not I did not see that against the Brewers.
We'll have to talk about that. The edl wild card for the race for the third spot is super tight for with four teams, so we got to get into that. And of course college football. Boy, do I have a message for all you people who are modeling against Colorado. Oh yeah, stop with the modeling. Yeah, college football, it was fun, Henoflage football. It is what it is.
A couple weeks.
Let me just do the guess on the on the we'll get through a bunch of these now. Because the Giant Car Giants at Cardinals, by the way, Dobbs in defeats Washington won that twenty to sixteen. Dobbs was twenty one of thirty for one thirty two. Not the worst thing when you just met everybody, Yeah, for real. Two fumbles lost. He was sack three times. First fumble, of course, led to the game tying touchdown in the fourth and the second essentially sealed the win for Washington. Though it
wasn't straightforward for Washington down the stretch. Four to fifty eight total combined yards in this game forty eight to two ten in favor of Washington, only thirteen first downs for the Cardinals. I will say the Giants will still be huge favorites on the road in quotes huge because they're on the road. I'll say it's no man's land of minus five and a half.
Four and a half, no man's land four and a half.
It was between four and a half and five.
Yeah, four and a half. And you know what, I know, they got absolutely destroyed last night. It feels a little light to me. I think this is gonna be a little bit of an.
Over I said this about the Commanders, I said last week, I said, this is a must win. This is a must win for them to beat the Cardinals, the tanking Cardinals.
Rights, yes, they almost did, and they almost did it.
They almost didn't. This is a must win for the Giants, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, this is a win for the Giants because again, as tough as and we were railing about how tough you know, the Jets first six week gauntlet was, well, my goodness. I mean, if you're the New York Giants, you you lose this game to Arizona. Do you know what you have after this? After this game, you are at San Francisco home Seattle, at Miami at Buffalo.
Oh, that season kicking ugly real quick.
That is a must win game, must win? All right, what's next?
Afternoon on Sunday, Sunday four twenty five, Eastern Jets at Cowboys.
All right, Jets unseen Jets of course again two point dogs? Is it now to Buffalo at home tonight? What is the number?
Let's see, we're sitting yeah, pretty much two everywhere, even one one and a half at MGM.
I have no pre flop on this. This will be an end game thing. Aaron Rodgers debut for the Jets, so sight unseen on them at Dallas, Dak in that win last night. I mean again, Dak didn't have to do much, thirteen of twenty four for one three. The big thing is he snapped his streak of seven straight games with a pick, didn't throw a pick.
There you go.
They held the Giants. The Cowboys did to one hundred and seventy one totally yards and again we're plus three in turnovers. That was the story, leading directly to fourteen Dallas points. Sight unseen on the Jets. I'll see Dallas minus four minus three.
All right, well we'll see the Jets, which I don't think they really adjusted. So we're sitting three, which I think that was the line. Okay, before you know, before Sunday but that.
Was my line of about Dallas. That reason why I was my favorite pick, not only because I'm low on the Giants, but the line I used was, Dallas, if you're as good as you're supposed to be, you should crush the Giants.
That was most of my bets yesterday were pre season conviction bets, right it was. I laid it with the Jags, I laid it with the Eagles, laid it with the Cowboys, simply because of that high on those teams against teams I'm not higher.
By the way, I didn't bet this, but imagine people who had highest scoring team, lowest scoring team. If you had the Packers, let's just say in some universe you had the Packers of the highest scoring team, and then the Cowboys go out and drop forty to nail you last night, and the convers of the other part. If you had the Bengals lowest at three and then the Giants put up a goose egg, that would be I.
Didn't even think about that. That's a good.
Point, brutal, you were holding your Bengals tickets like this is the greatest bet I've ever made.
So there are a couple three and a halves out there for that game that I guess at Pop this morning. So it's it's it's going Cowboys way, which I guess would be no surprise with us not seeing the Jets yet. Next up in the afternoon, four twenty five Eastern Commanders at Broncos. Who's excited for this? Oh boy, Howell Howell?
And what's the total on this? I wonder, Howell, you tell me what's the total on this?
The total on this is thirty eight and a half thirty nine, thirty eight and a half through nine.
Sam Howell in victory for Washington. Actually it was nineteen of thirty one for two h two, one touchdown, one pick, but he was sacked six times and again lost that funnel which was the scoop and score that put Arizona
up thirteen to seven. And then Russell Wilson in defeat, the one point loss, the miss extra point loss to the Raiders, in which Sean Payton for all of his schmack talking, listen, you had a whole game to make up for it, but that on side kick backfired on You spotted the Raiders, almost almost spotted them a seven to nothing leader, or set them up to go up seven to nothing. Wilson was twenty seven of thirty four for one to seventy seven, two touchdowns. No Pixy was
sacked two times. They had ten penalties for eighty three yards. I guess Denver minus three. I'm also gonna guess I'm probably low on this.
Denver three and a half, three and a half over Atfkings and that.
Is I say this as a Washington guy.
Yeah it's three and a half.
But if that gets the three, I may take them.
Okay, Well, man, I didn't see many positives that's gonna be I have. I don't want anything to do with that game.
Nope.
If I do anything would be under a pass, even at thirty eight and a half thirty Now, you're probably right, I'll probably pass like that. It is gross. I don't know that I saw a ton out of the Bronco.
Like.
There's a lot of games we saw yesterday and teams we saw that I think are still tricky to figure out. So what did we see? Some high completion percentage from Russell Wilson, But it's all dink and dunk stuff, right.
There are so many bad quarterback lines. Yeah, there really are. Again, maybe this I mean again the joke about being a fourth game of the preseason. There's there's a kernel of truth that rings in that, because it's like, this is kind of what that is, these guys having anemic lines like that.
Yeah, give me. I would love to know what the average completion across the board was for average distance of completions yesterday, because.
It was so low Burrow and Ritter and Chino, I know, terrible, horrible.
Okay, cruise on to the Sunday night game, Dolphins at Patriots.
That's a Sunday night game.
Yeah, we got two on Monday night. Yeah.
Yeah, Oh that's a good that's a good Sunday night game.
Yeah.
Uh.
Tua was twenty eight for forty five in that win, that thirty six to thirty four win over the Chargers, for four hundred and sixty six yards, three touchdown, one pick. He was not sacked. He did lose that fumble at the two yard line on the opening drive. Ty Reek eleven for two fifteen, two touchdowns.
He's good.
So Tua was is the second quarterback now in Miami history with multiple four hundred plus yard games, Dan Marino of course being the other. And for Tyreek that's his tenth career game with ten plus catches and one hundred and fifty plus yards. Tyreek said before the season he wants to he wants to have two thousand yards receiving. Well,
he's more than ten percent of the way there. They outgained the Chargers five thirty six to four to thirty three again, four to sixty six to one ninety nine in the passing game, and they were minus two and turnovers. That big fumble at the two yard line could have been huge. And then there's the Patriots. Mac Jones in defeat thirty five of fifty four for three to sixteen, three touchdowns, one picks, He was sacked twice. They outgained Philly the Patriots did three eighty two to two fifty one.
I'm gonna say Miami minus.
Three on the road, Dolphins two and a half at DraftKings. Right now, well, I think this opened three. Let me check this is two and a half two basically everywhere now I found it opened three.
So again again with that Philly Patriots game, we ended up cashing. We probably weren't on the right side. And New England, I will say this, their defense did look spectacular. Nick Sirianni was giving them all kinds of praise after the game. So I don't want to make the mistake of even though we got away with it week one, I don't want to make the mistake of underrating them again.
Correct. Yeah, no, no, I feel the same way.
Yeah.
In the Dolphins team was a team that I was I feel like I was higher on the most preseas and I don't have any interest yet betting this, betting this game. I mean it would be Dolphins or past still, but I'm not going there.
What was your biggest takeaway from the from both of these games? So the Eagles Patriots was that more Eagles were just rusty and you underrated the Patriots. I think both of those things are true. And then in the Chargers Dolphins, what's the biggest takeaway that, like Brandon Staley's still the defense still doesn't like again Nick Bosa.
I think two wildly different.
Khalil Mack, Ac Jackson can't stop.
We've added all these guys on this defense. We every offseason we rave about how much better this defense is going to be, and it still just gets absolutely blitzed by the Dolphins, Like it's I think that one is just wow. This this feels I'm high on both the Dolphins and the Chargers. What I was what I was high on about them was their offense and can either one of you show me some semblance of defense? Right, Well,
we didn't get that yesterday. Eagles Patriots, So to say, it feels like same old Dolphin, same old Chargers as we could go into Week two, as we go into the rest of the season. That other game you bring up, I mean a guy was on the air, but it made it even more confusing because Eagles jump out to a sixteen to nothing.
Start and then the Patriots kind of dominated.
Yeah, and then it's like three and out, three and out, three and out for the Eagles, and the Patriots are moving it.
As we documented, the Patriots had roughly seventy five chances to win.
They really did. The one thing I don't believe is that Bill Belichick is going to be fine going forward with Mac Jones throwing the ball what fifty one times? Is that what he had finished with? I don't think that's going to be the game win for the Pats.
Fifty four past, fifty four past steps all right, the two Monday night games on the other side. What we don't want to overreact on. What we are prone to overreacting on. That's next, numbers games, guessing lines, the Sports Betting Network, a numbers game on VSI. These sports betting network nobody knows football like VSA, and now's the time we come a Vison Pro subscriber. Only Vson Pro subscribers get all the tools to prep for college and pro games.
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Betting Network. Joshua Dobbs is per Pro Football Talk on Twitter. Joshua Dobbs quote, I think a huge jump is in store for the Arizona offense.
Unquote I'm amazed at how positive josh Dobbs always is. He's a great guy, like he was the guy when he first got there. He's like, you know, I'm confident we're gonna be ready, And I'm like rolling my eyes, like, dude, you got two weeks from one of the worst rosters in the NFL. I don't think you're going to be ready.
Tyreek Offensive Player of the Year odds eleven to one, FanDuel nine to one. DraftKings MVP Tyreek one hundred to one. Again, they don't give that.
MVP going in.
They just don't give it to him.
Offensive Player of the Year, go for it. I'm not I don't hate that bed at all.
Let me just before we get to the Monday night games. By the way, two Monday night games, huh Yeah, in case you missed the memo, yeah, which I like I did apparently. Yeah, there's sounds vaguely familiar.
There are three instances this year where we will have staggered Monday night football games. So not what we've seen a couple of times over the past couple of years.
Right, it started a couple of years, right, it was like we always have the opener.
It was all double headers, doubleheader So it's not a true doubleheader. You're getting staggered starts. So it's gonna be seven to fifteen Eastern and eight fifteen eastern next Monday for these two games. So first one up Saints at Panthers.
Saints and Panthers thriller, Oh god, Saints did squeak by the Titans sixteen to fifteen, and Carolina losing to Atlanta where Atlanta basically did nothing. Derek Carr yesterday was twenty three of thirty three for three zero five and his debut with the Saints one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked four times and no lave eight for one twelve and then Carolina, Bryce Young and the Panther's not winning
continues a streak. The number one overall pick has not won his first start since two thousand and two, when David Carr did it, oh fourteen and one over the last twenty years.
You're gonna ask me to actually do that, did you?
Yeah? Op, hey, Kelly open, what do you think the who do you think the last uh number one pick overall to win one.
Car but which brother was at David?
David? You are correct? Oh?
Yeah, yeah, good for you.
Bryce twenty of thirty eight for one forty six in his debut one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked twice, three carries for seventeen yards minus three and turnovers again for Carolina out gained Atlanta two eighty one to two twenty one, but those three turnovers led directly to seventeen Falcons points. That's all you need to know. Yep, I don't know NFC South rivalry throat. I'll say Saints by three on the road.
It is Saints three, is what we're seeing right now. I go to see if there is any other numbers out there. Now it's a couple three and a halfs, a couple three and a halves out there, but mainly.
Three's all right? What's the second one in night and in that total flying up as we speak for some reason? Wow? What's okay?
Second, it was thirty nine. Now I'm seeing forty and a half. Forty one's lighting up forty two green across the board. Wow, okay. Eight to fifteen Eastern Browns at Steelers.
Oh, that's a good game. Yes, that's a good game. Cleveland in victory over the the just absolutely mor An Bengals yesterday. Deshaun was sixteen for twenty nine for one fifty four. I mean, even that's terrible, right? What I got more than one or two texts about DeShawn yesterday? Like is he washed one touchdown, one pick? He was sacked three times, five carries for forty five yards and a touchdown. Nick Chubb eighteen for one oh six two
hundred and six total rushing yards for the Browns. Talk about on brand Brown's out first down the Bengals twenty one to six, three fifty to one forty two in total yards, utter domination. And that was with the Browns being minus two in turnovers. Six straight home win for the brown versus the Bengals. Wow, that's amazing actually. Uh? And then Pittsburgh in defeat against the Niners. Can he pick it thirty one to forty six for two thirty two,
one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked five times. Drake and Jackson had three of them for the Niners. Drake Jackson leads the sackboard. They were outgained by the Niners three ninety one to two thirty nine. They were out time of possession thirty seven twenty three to twenty two thirty seven. TJ Watt though two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Yeah, he always does his thing, but they
lose thirty to seven. They get blasted. I am going to not go crazy with week number one, and I'm gonna say Pittsburgh is a split between a pick him and the three. I'll say minus one and a half on the Steelers. They are favorite Browns one and a half, Browns one and a half. I think I like the Steelers.
Could be great teaserleg two total forty one.
I like this. Fool me once, fool me again?
Is that how it goes? So?
I think in the end, I like just reviewing these just based on the initial reaction. Now again, will I hold to these? Come contest picks this coming week? Come bets? But I think it's the I think I should. I think it's the Seahawks, the Chargers. Seahawks who are five and a half point dogs to the lines, I think that's a little high.
Yep.
The Chargers are only three point favorites on the road.
I think, oh boy, we better hurry up. Okay, we got line movement going on. I was gonna say, but we have three and a halves. It is mainly three and a halves across.
The board now and that at Tennessee.
There's a couple out there still.
And then I think the third one is I kind of like Pittsburgh Monday Night, kind of like Pittsburgh.
Yeah, there's a couple of lines to update Chargers, mainly three and a halves.
Now, yeah, I'm going to it behind us three and a half.
I'm gonna bet I'm gonna bet a three uh right as we get off the air, because there are a couple still available.
Yeah.
The other significant one here the forty nine ers game. That what was that seven when we just did it?
Yeah?
Eight eight and a half now? Oh man?
So why we do this Monday morning? Yep? All right, let's just talk the biggest before we get out of here.
Biggest anything tonight for you? If his number keeps coming down, I might end up on the bills, but I have a feeling I'm gonna be looking for that in game.
Biggest Week one overreactions, what do you think people will be most prone to. I'll give you a choice. Okay, we just talked about one of them. Hill's gonna win m VP, right, people canna be oh m v P one hundred to one. That doesn't usually happen for non quarterbacks. Yeah. No, people are gonna be like, oh, the Browns are gonna win the AFC North.
That defense is incredibly is incredibly good. But I got more than I was, but not shocked by that. Shawn was not good, he was not great. He wasn't great.
That the Cowboys are the most complete NFC team, is that an overreaction that people will have.
I don't know if that's an overreaction.
San Francisco is the most complete.
Come on, Okay, I don't know.
I don't know if it's over Hey, forty and the Eagles are too. The Eagles just might have had a bad.
Game because I have these Niners slotted three and we'll do our power rankings again this week, but I had them third in those group of three NFC teams because of that, I was most impressed with them yesterday.
Well, I'm just saying, anybody who thinks, oh my god, what I saw last night makes makes the Cowboys better than the Eagles of the Niners period, I'm just saying, slow down on Yeah, no, no, no, they might be, but let's this is relax.
No, I think I had I had Eagles and Cowboys kind of one, A, one B heading into this season, no matter whichever order you wanted to put it as top of the NFC. Yeah, so you know, forty to nothing, I think that just kind of yeah. I don't want to say proves anything like that. You're not gonna see forty to nothing wins very often, but you know, good showing by them. So that's what I'm saying, that forty
nine Ers being that dominant over the Steelers. Okay, I gotta start, I gotta shut up and start showing them a little bit more respect.
Than I was. Some people are gonna think the Lions are Super Bowl contenders after that Thursday night game, I would.
Not, Okay, who's the fourth best team in the NFC?
After Week one? You'd have to say the Lions. Yeah, but it's like one, two, you're ready to go. Hold on, it's one, two, three, I'm holding my hand way up. And then it's right, yeah, four, four, right, it's not close.
Well that is probably four or five.
And then yes, Lion, Seahawks, Seahawks. And then I mean the other one I was gonna say is is you know people are gonna be like is Jordan Love? Some people are gonna be like well, or think that that's an overreaction. But we were saying on this show. I was saying here all off season, I think Jordan Love's actually gonna be good. So that to me is not only not an overreaction, that was a pre reaction to that, I think he is gonna be good.
Yeah, that was a I mean, look, we both have division tickets on the Packers. Is that a bit of a gamble?
Is?
Of course, it's a bit of a game. We have no idea really what Jordan Love's gonna look like, but we thought, you know, him sitting behind and they still have they still have pieces there. I mean, Romeo Dobbs looked great yesterday. The running backs, Aaron Jones, we don't I guess we don't know what's gonna happen with him after he went down yesterday. But Christian Watson didn't even play in that game. Like, they do have some weapons there.
What I mean, if Jones is hurt, they gotta we gonna watch that. Hammis Hammies are quirky like that. What's the thing you saw week one here? So far? Obviously one game left, but you were like I knew it and I couldn't understand why everybody else was saying it and I'm not saying like, oh look, I have these bets and they look good after week one. But there was something that I don't even have a bet on that I'm like, I didn't I never understood this, and I saw nothing in week one to lead me to
think that these people were right about. For me, it was the Bears. Like I didn't understand these people were all about the Bears. And the reason that I bet Eberflus for first coach fired is because if that goes sour quickly, like if they lose this game, if they lose this game, who they got again? It's like some game they should they have every reason to win.
I was trying to come with an answer your question.
Chicago was playing Tampa Bay. If they lose to Tampa Bay and they go oh in too Everflus is squarely on the hot set.
I think they will too. I said it last week. I think Tampa's live. These are this beginning part of the season with some of these pieces you did, Okay, I just from I'm gonna go with two winners that I didn't see coming, and one of them I had a bet on one I didn't. Rams and Stafford were incredibly impressive to me. I did not see that coming. And not that I was high on the Broncos, nor did I have a bet on them. But the Raiders going into Denver and picking up a win.
It's a good win. Yeah, but but I don't think they're any good, which leads me to believe, like, imagine if that's up, because I'm I'm anti Sean Payton with all the things he said about random people, like obviously with h with Hackett. Yeah, but then he goes after Russell right here, and then he starts with the on side kicking, Oh that could be up. We shall see.
Well, good thing they didn't invest their whole future, that's right,
