The numbers told the story they always do. It's wand those idiots who believe in analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone vis in.
Good Monday morning to you Christmas Day.
Merry Christmas from a Numbers game at vis D Sports, Betty Network, Visa dot Com, Visa App, Game plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV and of course the draft Kings that work. It's Skill Alexander and it's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa.
Yeah.
Yeah, they let us into the big house, up to the big leagues.
Cold on doing good. That was your weekend. It was It was great. It was great. It's really cold outside. I did park at the d I might have texted you about going to the Circa going to Circle today and then kind of forgot when I was rolling downtown, so I just parked over there and I walked down Fremont Street. Glorious day on Fremont Street this morning for Christmas Day. I saw you tweet it. It was very nice of you.
We have to start, by the way, for those who don't know, we do guessing lines, and just because it's Christmas doesn't mean we're not doing guessing lines. We are doing guessing lines for week seventeen. The National Football League coming up in moments, But first a look at Circus Survivor. Because we are down Kelly to four. Count them, four people left in Circus Survivor. Six were on the Broncos last night. That goes by the wayside. Does the Broncos
lose outright to the New England Patriots? Included in that group of six The gentleman, if I may use that word, I'm not sure if I may, the gentleman who did not want to chop. Yeah, proving once again that maybe you're not better than everybody else.
It's okay. He took to the Twitter machine last night and had some choice words. What he say definitely got my money's worth. Good luck to the remaining four. You guys can now chop another tweet. How I found out about the Circa contest was when I went into set up and deposit one dollars into my Circa account. I proceeded to make five hundred thousand dollars within the first couple of weeks before my limits got reduced, so gambling at Circa was still very profitable for me. I still
am hash to agg the goat well that's great. So at least he's taking it. Well, yeah, he's taking it.
Well, Okay, so we're down to four, which means and again I'm going to do this off the phone because something's going with the apparently apparently my computer doesn't work at CIRCA. So right now with four left, and by the way, it does stink to lose survivor whoever you are at this point in the season, without question, it is just the worst of all betting losses, imaginable, and really heart goes out to the six who are out.
Four remain. The intrinsic value of each Kelly now with that is two million, three hundred and sixteen, seven hundred and fifty dollars. And so the thing with this now is because there's this Christmas quirk, because there's a Christmas quirk with this. It is a situation where had there been different options for the remaining four, this could have gotten dicey because of the quick turnaround with what you
have to pick for today, because remember today's a standalone week. Instead, nobody had Kansas City left, everybody had Philly left, So all four have Philly today. So if the Giants somehow were to win this football game, this contest would be over and would chop four ways. Instead, everybody is, you know, not only gonna be on Philly. We assume they'll win, then everybody gets to breathe after tonight, and the assumption would be that there will be a chop. But I
would say that's an assumption. Do not assume, because just because they were willing to chop when that we're thirteen doesn't mean that they are now that it's clearer with four. So we're gonna talk to Greg Jones, the mistake guy, if you will, who wanted to pick Detroit on Thanksgiving it at a pick in Green Bay. He is one of the four remaining. It's La Jones are circus Master Indiana. Jet Jack's jag still remain.
We did have some communication over the weekend with one of the contestants too as well. I talked to him a little bit more offline. He did say the conversations about the chop were a little bit more more exaggerated than we thought as far as how many teams had really agreed to anything. He just wanted to clear that up because he was saying his team had definitely not really agreed to anything or been invited, So don't know
if he's still alive or not. Like you said, we got four rolling into today, you would expect to all be on Eagles. I know Joe Peda answering some tweets this morning, thought was kind of fascinating of how you would handle this situation if you were in it. But you know he's talking about even you know you would even consider if you knew everybody was gonna be on Philly, you'd even back. You could throw some more money on Philly today because if you lose, if they if they lose, right,
you're cashing the survivor buddy. If they win, you're taking the winnings from today and then rolling into next week still alive and survivor.
It's gonna be fascinating. He could, well, let's just get through today and then we'll revisit tomorrow. If you're unfamiliar with guessing lines, how this works again, I'm gonna coccoon. I don't know the lines. This exercise has gotten us tons of winners all year long on the megapot. I
am thirty one, fifty teen and one. That's only three pick steep a week, But it's largely based on this show guessing lines, first instincts, and once again last week my instincts were on the three games the Dolphins, the Brownies, and today one of the three, which we'll talk about the three games to day on the Raiders. So we'll see if all three end up getting home against the
number obviously one pending, but that is the exercise. Kelly then tells us who what in fact the line is, and hopefully in that exercise, week's gonna extract some value. It's really a first instinct thing, and your first instincts often your best on this.
Yep. Yeah, a couple couple winners from me too based off of guessing lines last week. Let's hit it as we start for week seventeen of the National Football League opens Christmas. We're looking ahead a week, all right, Thursday Night football gil Jets at the dominant Cleveland Browns, all.
Right, and nine Jets ten and five Brownies. The Jets yesterday somehow snatched victory away from the jaws of defeat, which snatched away from the jaws of victory against the Commodores last or yesterday, I should say, Jets second play from scrimmage, second to tenth their own twenty five howl picked by Tony Adams, set up at the Washington twenty four Jets settle for a zerline twenty five yard field goal, three to nothing.
Jets two minutes into the game.
Another Washington three and out Tress all right should say the first Washington three three and out Tress away punt block three plays, nine yards, sending ad Jason brownly form made out ten to nothing. Jets eleven twenty left first quarter, three and out for Washington two plays forty two yards Breeson from thirty six seventeen to nothing. Jets were just
over five minutes into this ballgame. Teams trade punts twice, but on that second Jets punt Crowder Jamison Crowder who played for both of these teams at one point in his career before being on Washington right now untouched fumbles. Ashton Davis recovers that led to another Zeroline field goal, twenty to nothing. Jets nine to ten left second quarter, and after a Washington punt first and ten their own seventeen. Simion can't corral the snow casey two. Hill recovers the
fumble that leads to a one play Washington drive. The first salvo from Washington in this game, Rodriguez in from twelve twenty to seven Jets six thirty eight to go.
Second quarter.
Then the Jets eleven plays seventy one yards pristin from two over the pylon. Beautiful play that he made, swinging his arm back. Twenty seven to seven Jets, and that was your halftime score. It was all Jets besides that one error, eighteen to five. They led in first downs two forty six to seventy six in total yards. They had the ball for over twenty minutes in the first half. Howell was five of seventeen for fifty one. Washington was zero for six on third and then you know what
happened third quarter into the third quarter. Now Washington second and ten at their own twenty twenty nine. Howell picked by Quincy Williams, Jets second and goal of the six, knocking at the door up twenty. Here's where the game turned. Simmeion picked by Cody Barton, who was a tackle away from housing it instead Bersett in the ballgame for Washington sixth plays, twenty nine yards percent. It's a Logan Thomas
for fifteen twenty seven to fourteen. Late third quarter after Jets punt Washington nine plays seventy seven yards berset to McLaurin twenty nine, the big one. Rodriguez in for one twenty seven to twenty one, Jets nine to twenty seven to go. Then after a Jets punt, Washington six plays sixty three yards and improbably Washington led this game. Gibson in from two to twenty eight twenty seven Skins four fifty two to go. After Jets punt Washington three and out.
Jets take over down one at their own thirty three with one forty one to go, one time out. They get it to the Washington thirty six zero line, fifty four yard field goal good thirty twenty eight. Jets win. No pitchy pitchy woo woo from Washington. Simmey in twenty seven to forty nine for two seventeen in victory, Breeshall twenty for ninety five, two touchdowns on the ground, twelve
for ninety six catching the football. They out game Washington three eighty one to two forty five, but fourteen penalties for one fifty for the Jets. Anyway, they win. And then there's Cleveland. Cleveland Browns get it done in a big way. First play from scrimmage against Houston, Flacco to Cooper from fifty three. Three plays later four in from
four seven to nothing, Cleveland thirteen eighteen left the first quarter. Later, Cleveland three plays ninety yards Flacco to Cooper from seventy five out, fourteen to nothing, Cleveland, twelve oh four left. Second quarter. Cleveland kicks off to Damian Piers eighty eight yards of the hiszy fourteen to seven Cleveland as Houston wakes up at least on special teams eleven fifty one left in the second quarter. Dustin Hopkins, I think he hurt the hamstring on that play. Excuse me, I just
spat on you. Apologize. After Cleveland three and out, Houston punt Cleveland fifty yards. Six plays Flaccot and Joku from twenty one man as he loved a Joku twenty to seven. And now because Hopkins is out with the hamstring injury, they apparently like the punter can't kick. This is Matt Brown thing. Punter can't kick a field goal, so they'd never tried anything with a kicker of the rest of
the game. Dtr run from two twenty two to seven Cleveland four to sixteen left in the second quarter after Houston three and out Cleveland second I dated their own thirty six. Flacco picked downfield by DeAndre Houston Carson Houston six plays later, first and tend their own forty one. Canam picked by Jeremiah Jeremiah Owosu Karramaa twenty three seconds left in the second quarter. Cleveland set up in the Houston forty one. They get to the Houston eighteen with
fifteen seconds left, but incomplete. Incomplete, then with five seconds left instead of a field goal, because Coppins is Hopkins is her, no one can kick a chip shot. Flaco picked by Derek Stingley Junior again thanks for drafting of being drafted third in the draft. Halftime Flacco twelve for twenty two for two forty six in the first half.
Cooper had won seventy three of them. Third quarter, after Houston punt, Cleveland eighteen play ninety four yard drive, including a fourth and eight conversion of Cooper for thirteen at the Houston thirty. Flaco to Cooper for seven twenty eight to seven. Cleveland two point conversion fails on a fourd run two thirty five left. Third quarter, Houston third and
eight from their own twenty three. Keenom picked by darn Harmon, won thirty seven left and then Cleveland converted a fourth and five of the Houston twenty five because again no kicker. Flack Goot ceda Tillman for seven, fourth and six of the Houston thirteen, Flacco to Amari for eleven. Hunt then from one Flacco to Amari for two thirty six to seven Cleveland. Two cosmetic touchdowns later, you had your final
thirty six twenty two. Flacco threw for three sixty eight Cooper caught two sixty five of them, franchise records, seventeenth biggest receiving yards day in the history of the National Football League. Cleveland's at home against the Jets. I will say the Brownies by six.
It is opened about six. We are up to seven. Cleveland's seven now against the Jets. Okay, I'll take that. It makes sense. No play for me, but I understand. Yeah, it's intriguing to me. It was intriguing at six with the Browns. That would keep in mind, the Browns, as good as they've been at times this year, we haven't really seen them lay big numbers like this, And with this,
you know you still got Joe Flacco in there. I'm not ready to say, hey, this guy's leading you to a super Bowl yet, so laying a full touchdown kind of against anybody feels lofty for this team. But I don't know.
Cleveland inhabiting the number one wild card position in the AFC and Joe Flacco down to four to one, four to one to win comeback Player of the Year, DeMar Hamlin rains minus four dollars. There's no way we can know who will actually be that. What these voters are thinking more guessing lines on the other side. Numbers game Vicent these sports betting network.
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all this limited time holiday offer. Visit vson dot com slash subscribed to sign up on our holiday special. Now that's Vsin dot com slash subscribe skill, Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa Circus Sports, the Mothership right here in downtown Las Vegas, kil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, producer Umber nine, so much more than a producer. Kelly wearing his festive Santa hat.
That's right.
Merry Christmas to all, Happy Holidays to all. Hope you got all the gifts you wanted, Did you, Kelly, get to the gifts you wanted?
Of course, I get to talk football with you.
On a Monday morning.
Not what you wanted, I don't think.
But I'm glad you're here. Glad you're here. Glad What I said about Joe Flacco before the break, what I meant by there's no way to know. And again without just belaboring the point with comeback Player of the year there. It is so nebulous, right, it is so vague to know what any of the fifty voters are thinking. We had one Aaron shots on a couple of weeks ago, per him, right, his thing is he's not voting for Hamlin.
He's going to vote for somebody who earned it on the field, regardless of the circumstance or the basis of that comeback. Now, you can argue with that, and you could say that's callous, you could say whatever. But that's just the mind of one of fifty voters. There's no way to know what this market actually is. What it is per DraftKings is tomorrow Hamlin minus four to twenty and Joe Flacco four to one. By the way, Baker Mayfield is the only other person in single digits at eight to one.
But truly, what is it?
You could flip a coin right now for me between Flacco and Hamlin, because if you really said to me, who in your heart of hearts does your instinct tell you people will vote for right now, it might be Flacco.
But there's no way to know I this, I mean you know that you know this market's just a continuingly upsetting to me. I don't understand how Flacco has shorter odds than Baker Mayfield. Flacco's come in here and done it for a few weeks. Baker Mayfield has done this all season long and has in Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that we expected not much from in first place in
the NFC South. I don't really understand how Flacco's odds or Jordan, but this goes back to us comparing comparing injuries versus time off, versus crappy play versus.
Because he's thirty eight and he's got a Flacco face, Yeah, that's it's impressive to people. Yeah, old dudes throwing it out, good friend, Uh Flacco more more. Let me ask you this way, Flacco closer to comeback player of the year in your opinion, or Stefanski to the coach.
Of the year. Get a coach of the year and the I mean the OD just kind of reflect that now. But what what Stefanski has done. We knew this defense was gonna be great, but with all these quarterbacks coming through and you've got ten wins on the season in the tough AFC, Stefanski's looking pretty good right now. Yeah.
I don't know, because I think now because the the Damico Ryans and Shane Steichen's of the world have just taken one step back and they still could get there. Right if either team makes the playoffs and they're both they're both still tied with the Jaguars atop the AFC South, are they?
Yeah?
Did you know that Jaguars bets? I think that it shifts over to the Campbell Shanahan group, not to not to Stefanski.
I could be wrong. I mean I would give everything to the Niners right now. I mean it'd be m VP Offensive Player of the your end, coach of the year. But that's just me. Yeah, maybe I'll change after today.
Campbell's still the short in.
That, oh, the short shot.
All right, what do you got next?
All right? We have Saturday Night, So Thursday night, Jets, Brown Saturday Night. Only one game on Saturday this week Lions at Cowboys.
One Saturday game. We go to one Saturday game Detroit, the eleven and four NFC North champion Detroit Lions against the Dallas Cowboys, the ten and five Cowboys. The Lions win a division for the first time in thirty years nineteen hundred and ninety and three. Good on Dan Campbell in the Lions. They beat Minnesota yesterday in a game
that was a roller coaster. Detroit started out fourteen play seventy five yard drive, Montgomery in from one seven to zhing Detroit seven to thirteen left first quarter, and then Minnesota went nine plays seventy five yards. Mullins to Josh Oliver for thirty three to start the drive, Chy Chandler ty Chandler in from two to end at seven to seven late first quarter. Then Detroit first and tenth their
own thirty six Gibbs tackled by Andrew Biamy fumbles. Ivan Pace recovers Minnesota fourth and two of the Detroit forty, though they give it right back as mulleins first of four picks pick by Brian Branch. The Nick Mullens experience began as it always is. Teams trade three and ouns. Detroit matriculate settle for a badgely thirty seven yard field, though Michael Bagley beck ten to seven Detroit after a Minnesota strip sack scoop and score was nullified with Goff's
hand ruled moving forward. That's five h five left to the second quarter. Then Minnesota third and seven at their own eighteen. Mullins picked by Kirby Joseph, who celebrates on his twenty two yard return while running the ball downfield, sets up the lines with a short field Gibbs fourteen yard touchdown run seventeen to seven Lions, one forty eight left second quarter, Minnesota sixth play seventy five yards, Mullens to Jefferson for twenty two, twenty nine and twenty six
for the touchdown. How good is justin Jefferson seventeen fourteen Detroit. That would be a score at the half. Minnesota did the double dip here, so they got at five plays eighty one yards to begin the second half. Mullens to Osborne for forty seven. That sets up Mullens to Osborne for six twenty one to seventeen Vikings. They take the lead eleven to fifty six left third quarter, and then
Detroit comes back thirteen play, seventy five yard drive. They convert two fourth and ones along the way, go off to Saint Brown for one twenty three twenty one Detroit. Badgley's pat was blocked four thirty eight left third quarter. You thought maybe that'll come back to haunt them, But after a Minnesota three and out Detroit fourteen plays eighty three yards gives in from three thirty to twenty one Lions eleven h seven left, Minnesota third and eighteen at
their own seventeen. Mullins picked by Kirby Joseph again nine fifty two to go after Detroit three and out, though Minnesota gets a Joseph twenty six yard field goal to cut the lead to six thirty to twenty four, five nineteen to go. Then after Detroit punt, Minnesota takes over down six with two twenty three to go at their own twelve third and twenty seven at their own sixteen Mullens to Jefferson for twenty eight what a catch, amazing catch.
Two plays later to Brandon Palell for twenty six, and with fifty eight seconds to go at the Detroit thirty, Minnesota was in business, but Mullins then throws an absolute duck to what would have been a completion of Jefferson instead picked by if if Ayatsu melifan Wu, who steps
in front of Jefferson. Ball game thirty to twenty four, Detroit again, first Division title for the Lions in thirty years, six road wins, tying their franchise record golf threw for two fifty seven, Gibbs fifteen for eighty and two touchdowns on the ground, Saint Brown twelve for one, Zho six at a touchdown in the receiving game, plus three and turnovers the Lions were that'll do it. That led to plus seven net Detroit points, which was the margin of victory,
and of course the game clincher at the end. And then there's Dallas Game of the Day yesterday, Game of the Day yesterday against the Miami Dolphins. I had the Dolphins in this one and they got there, but boy was it close. Opening drive for Dallas fifteen plays fifteen, including fourth and one at the Miami thirty, Dak to Ferguson for nineteen. But three plays later, first and goal from the one, Dak fumbles on the handoff to Hunter Lepke, and that would set the tone. Brandon Jones recover seven
to seventeen left in the first quarter. Miami second play, next drive two out of Tyreek deep dropped would have been a ninety seven yard touchdown pass Instead, next play two at a waddle for a mere fifty that led to a Sanders fifty seven yard field goal three to nothing. Dolphins.
Jason Sanders was the MVP of this game. Did a pretty good day.
Pretty good Dallas three plays seventy five yards, book ended by Dak to Lamb for twenty two to start, Dak to Lamb for forty nine touchdown mostly Yak seven to three Cowboys, one thirty left first quarter, Miami fourth and goal to five. They esdue the chip shot field goal. They go for it and fail and it remained seven to three Dallas eleven oh two left in the second quarter. I was mad at the time that they didn't take
the points. I mean, I would have wanted to take the points there anyways, but then the play.
Call was terrible on top of it.
Yeah that as well. Dallas sho should have been a three and out, but bailed out by questionable roughing the passer penalty on Christian Wilkins. Forced to punt three plays later. Anyway, Sanders would kick a fifty two yard field goal to cut it to seven and six with four thirty one left in the second quarter, Dallas three and out. Miami gets into the Dallas nine with twenty six seconds left in the half, wasted last time out as the play
clock bled. That wouldn't come back to haunt them, though, after a roughing the passer call on Parsons two at a moster from four out touchdown, Miami takes the lead thirteen to seventeen, seventeen seconds left in the half. That would be the halftime score eighty six. In the first half,
dak won twenty one. Third quarter Miami punts, then Dallas three and out after Jake Bailey fifty eight yard punt pinned Dallas at the two and in Miami after failing to give avert a third and one Sanders fifty four yard field goals sixteen to seven, Dolphins eight to fifty nine left in the third quarter. This was one of these games where you thought, well, these settling for field goals, it's gonna come back to haunt.
Yep I said that on the area.
At least in Miami's case, I mean they're drilling it from beyond fifty Dallas Dak to Jalen Tolbert for forty five. That sets up an Aubrey forty three yard field goal to cut it to sixteen to ten, five twenty eight left in the third quarter. By the way, at this point, Aubrey's thirty two for thirty two on the season.
That dude still has a missed one incorrect.
Bless Sanders thirty five yardfield goal nineteen to ten. Aubrey matches at thirty three yard field goal nineteen to thirteen in favor of the Dolphins. Miami three and out Dallas, then fourth and two at the Miami forty three Dak to Lamb for eleven, then fourth in gold, the five p I on Miami first gold the doorstep Dak sacked by Andrew Van Ginkel for a seven yard loss, but
two who plays later doesn't matter. Seventeenth play of the drive, third and goal from the eight Prescott to Cook's touchdown.
Great cash by Cooks amazing twenty to nineteen.
Cowboys take the lead three twenty seven a go. Miami starts at their own twenty five TUA, this is your life two to eight Chan for six, fifteen yard face mask added on, then to Cedric Wilson for nine in Dallas territory to Reek for five. After two it throws it behind Tyreek to end goal for seven. Two minute warning to Reek for ten. Dallas uses the first time out one fifty three to go Jeff Wilson Junior for eight. Dallas second time out, one forty seven to go Wilson.
No gain.
Dallas uses their last time out one forty two to go Jeff Wilson for six check mating Dallas. Nothing they could do to prevent a walk off. Sanders Field will try from twenty nine. Good Dolphins win a twenty two to twenty and cover in the process.
I will say.
Dallas by five and a half. Hosting Detroit, they are up to six.
I really thought it was going to be in that dead.
Number home road splits though, seven and zero at home, three and five on the road. Yeah, and Detroit maybe a little uh let down after that.
I was gonna say it. They sole brighty like they won the World Series or the first round of the playoffs in.
Baseball, or guessing lines numbers game coming back, It's kill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidler live from Circa.
Oh yeah, see what I like about the hatted hat, gil is it really keeps it keeps the earpiece tucked in very nice.
Oh that's yeah, you know, kind of a nice little your forehead get itchy?
No, No, I bought it real. I actually bought a higher quality hat because this what I did. I went on Amazon and I was like, Santa hat. And then I was like, wait a second, I've done this before Santa hats because I got I got a big noggin there. It's not gonna fit, so I had I had to do the Amazon large large Santa hat. So if you think this thing looks rather big, yeah, yeah it is. It is.
So it's kind of what sized baseball cap do you wop in?
H I don't remember anymore? Was it seven and three quarters? It's not not quite Bochie.
Size, right, yeah, Okay, that's I you think that's where I'm at. It's relatively big. It's not gargantuan.
Yeah, it's not gargantuan. No, it's not Jack Gundis. Yeah, Jack Gundas is that real word? Yeah?
I think Bochi's like eight and three quarters. Yeah, his like massive training largest cranium in the history of Major League Baseball. It's your trivia for the day, everybody, All right, let's do one more? What we got?
All right? Next up early window on Sunday, Patriots and Bills again.
The point of all this is to search for value and relive what happened yesterday New England at Buffalo again. Back to survivor four remaining survivor contestants four over two million dollars now for each of them. Everybody has Philly tonight, so we'll get through the Christmas Day, which is its
own standalone week one way or the other. Based on the Patriots twenty six to twenty three upset win over the Broncos yesterday that knocked out six of the remaining ten, and so that is why we were down to four. By the way, this time last year, we had exactly four after if you will, sixteen a remember of the of the of the circus survivor week's week, Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Are little quirks, and then three after.
After remember Christmas, the Christmas quirk preceded the Sunday last year, So after the Christmas quirk we had four, and then after the Sunday we end up with three. And those three.
Chopped and those three chopped.
Yeah, they set up a deal where they chopped like a million each and they played for the rest.
When's the last time we've gotten further than we? Like? Have? We played this out till the end the first year, first year, okay, first year, we played it out.
Yeah, we like I was.
Part of ye we were all here had I almost got it. I can't remember by millions riding down the line did we play that out?
All I remember is I had a seventeen point favorite a few weeks before that that lost at home.
Thanks Jared Goff and the Rams. All right, what's next?
Oh well, this is this is why we're talking about Survivor's Patriots and Bills. So the Patriots are now four and eleven. By the way, the Patriots now end up with the fourth pick in the National Football League Draft currently at With this win, Washington is the beneficiary. They move up to the third pick. After the Patriots upset win. They're four and eleven. Buffaloes nine and six.
Uh.
New England first played from scrimmage last night. Zappie on pressure, he fumbles immediately. Denver set up at the New England six. But guess what, four and out. They couldn't punch it in. Javonte for two, Javonte for two incomplete, and then Javante for one after he trips over his own guy thirteen eighteen left in the first quarter. That's within the first
two minutes of this game. New England three and out, Denver three and out in New England three and now then Marvin Mims Junior fifty two yard punt return sets up a short twenty five yard field five plays Javante in from five to seven to nothing, Broncos five to fifteen left in the first quarter, and for those of us who had the Patriots plus, the points were like, oh man, come on, come on, Pats. Ryland thirty three yard field goal, seven to three, Denver thirteen thirty left.
Second quarter, then Denver first and the New England thirty eight Wilson to Williams hit by Jelani Tavaii fumbles recovered by Jeremiah Farms Junior. Denver got hosed on that. It was totally recovered by the Broncos. But they couldn't. They couldn't have where they guess they didn't. They feel they had enough evidence to overturn that. Yeah, looked to me like he felt right on it. So the play was upheld.
Doesn't matter. New England went three and out. Denver punts New England Ryland forty seven yard field goal try way wide right. Just terrible poortent of things to come thirty three seconds left in the second quarter, and then Lutz returns the favor with a fifty seven yarder, though, mind you, that was wide left seven to three Broncos at the half, and you're thinking, well, this game's a born burner. That's exactly what we thought it would be. Denver three and
out to start the third quarter. New England then goes crazy, and by that I mean it's because it's New England. Five plays seventy yards Zappi to to Mario Douglas for forty one, to Douglas for thirteen, two plays later to Zeke for fifteen. Two plays after that into the end zone nine to seven New England. Ryland dinks the pat YEP nine. You're like, this guy can't make anything.
Again.
Fifty in Denver punt New England three and out. Denver three and out. New England starts at the Denver forty two second and ten Zappy to Parker for thirty. Then three plays later, third and nine at the Denver eleven, Zappie to the kasiki in the back of the end zone from eleven out, sixteen to seven Patriots one thirty four left third quarter. Denver at this point in the second halfened minus seven yards. They would finis it's the third quarter with minus fifteen yards in that quarter alone.
Ensuing kickoff, Marvin Mims Junior muffs it, then recovers, then hit by Marte Moppu. He fumbles it, recovered by Cody Davis scoop and score from the one, twenty three to seven New England.
It's a blowout. We do a same game parlay segment on Live Bet Sunday.
Febian befe a thirty to one shot because of that touchdown.
Really yeah, wow, what was the bet that he got the.
Same game parlay? He had three legs but he tied in a Pats defensive her special teams touch Wow.
One twenty eight left in the third quarter. They're up sixteen first fourteen games. New England had twenty six third quarter points last night. They had twenty in the frame. Denver three and out. Wilson sacked, He fumbles, but Denver recovers, which is huge. Ensuing punt, New England muffs the pump but recover themselves. This is just a comedy show at this point. Three and out. Anyway, Denver's down sixteen nine plays eighty three yards, Wilson and Mims Junior for forty seven.
The big chunk, by the way that Mims laid out for and Belichick challenge, I have no idea how that was a catch none the fumble that didn't get reversed, and then that they'll get clearly moved when he hit the ground.
Oh yeah, yeah.
Yeah, Okay, maybe not. Three blays later, Wilson and Lucas crowl from three out. Wilson Brandon Johnson for two cuts the lead in half twenty three fifteen New England eight thirty three, fourth quarter eight thirty three remains New England three and out. Denver takes over at their own twenty two is six thirty three to go, less Rye, less rye bread everybody eleven plays seventy three yards first and tenth of New England forty Wilson deep looked like it
was gonna get picked in the end zone. Sean Wade couldn't secure it. Two blays later, Wilson and Brandon Johnson for twenty one, then two point conversion of Javonte twenty three, twenty three, two point fifty three to go. Is this really happening?
Of course it is. It's the Patriots. It's god awful, and.
The whole time everybody's watching this through the survivor players so it's like, oh my god, are they gonna survive on this? New England three and out? Denver starts at their own thirty nine one forty two left in the fourth quarter, but they go three and out two Who New England gets the ball back. Belichick wants to go to overtime, Peyton won't let him. Calls timeouts up to the first two Pats runs. You know what happens on third down, Zappy says, I got your timeouts, Sean Payton,
and all your comments you made before the season. How about some karma, Zappi to Parker for twenty seven, then a zeke for five to get SICKI for four, sets up Ryland for fifty six. The guy who missed the field goal earlier in the PA TA good twenty six twenty three. Patriots win it, Love.
It, The Life of a kicker, The Life of a kicker.
Again, Sorry to the six survivors. I had the Patriots plus the points. I didn't need to win it. But anyway, it's fun to watch through Buffalo.
We didn't talk. It was one of those games, By the way, was that game not absolute trash for like half of it? And then like somehow turned into like a good game because the Broncos like came back. You know, it made that comeback. Buffalo.
By the way, we didn't talk about this because it was on Saturday, but they they end up squeaking by the Chargers. It was a three to zing game. The Chargers JK. Scott punt, Deontay Harry fumbled it. Amen Agbang Bimigo covers set up at the Buffalo twenty seven four plays later, stick in from one. It was ten to nothing. Sharge thirteen forty nine left. Second quarter. Buffalo punted again, Charges three and out Buffalo one play fifty seven yards Allen to Davis touchdown to cut it to ten to seven.
Nineoh two left in the second quarter. That's when everybody started like money lining the bills on that drive. That worked out for everybody. Charges three and out Buffalo eight play sixty three yards, took three fifty one Allen in from two. It was fourteen to ten Buffalo. Late second quarter. That would be the halftime scoring. You figured at that point Buffalo was just gonna roll after, you know, they spotted the Charges a ten to nothing lead.
Third quarter, Chargers punt.
Buffalo second and eight at their own twelve, Allen picked by a low high Gilman that led to a Dicker. The kicker forty yard field goal cut it to fourteen to thirteen.
Buffalo.
Buffalo did have a ten play seventy five yard drive Allen in from one put him up twenty one to thirteen. Late third quarter. Dicker then cut it with to a twenty one to sixteen lead with a forty seven yard field goal, and then after another Buffalo three and out, a Dicker forty five yard field goal made it twenty one to nineteen Buffalo seven nineteen to go, and then Buffalo first and ten at their own twenty five James Cook, tackled by.
Gilman fumbles, Nick Williams recovers.
Chargers do go three it out, but they do get a Dicker fifty three yard field goal, and the Los Angeles Chargers, after just not playing at all for Brandon Staley the week before, are leading the Buffalo Bills twenty two to twenty one with five twenty six to go. What happened to all this? Buffalo the team you wanted to fear in the postseason, Well, Buffalo's got your fear. Third and fourth the Chargers twenty eight. Alan Is Shakir for fifteen looked like he had scored, but the rule touchdown.
That's a better outcome for Buffalo. Actually, to twenty nine to go results in a dicker go ahead twenty nine yard field goal. Excuse me, not a dicker but a bass twenty four yard field goal. Twenty four to twenty two. Buffalo twenty eight seconds to go. After a squib kick, they take over at their own thirty. Stick would immediately get sacked and that was pretty much hit. Buffalo hangs
on for the victory. And I will say against New England, which had their moment here against Denver, Buffalo is gonna be a ten point favorite in.
This Buffalo bills out to eleven and a half point favorites. Now in this game, I can dig it. I can dig it. All right. Those are three games we're gonna get to like five next. Yeah, you're going back to the well with the Patriots this week. No, yeah, I don't think this is an easy pass game for me.
This week I felt there was way too many points at Denver. It turned out to be I don't. I do not feel that way about this. Took my shot with the Pats not doing it twice yeah, you got home. It's a whole bunch of games to get to on the other side, numbers game. Recently, sports betting Network Skill Alexander's Kelly Bidlittle live from Circa. Will Hill just texted and he goes, they let you hit Circa into Circa texted it. I should say we get tweets at beating the books.
We'll spend some time with your kids. It's Christmas morning, Jesse Welch. Don't forget y'all are at Circa today. Gilly, Merry Christmas. I was a rewindered from before the show. Thank you, Jason H.
Eleven.
Merry Christmas.
Happy Hanuka to Gilly and Kelly. Happy to have guessing lines on Christmas morning. Also condolences to the victims Knoko Tony, How's glad John mcclan was able to save the day? Yes, Indulits's day, Michael Burns. How much did the Grinch get paid to wear the Santa hat? Have a great day, gentleman. By the way, Gil might have had a Sweet of the Year last night. Oh I send that tweet out every year about Chinese food.
Oh yeah, I did catch that tweet from you? Was your joye of Chinese food last night. Yes, I did you know what you know? What's funny is the there's so many more, Like I grabbed a sub from Jersey mics. There's way too many places open on Christmas Eve in Christmas. I know, Vegas a.
Little bit different, a little bit different, but still like it's no there's no reason for half the businesses that are open to be open. San Francisco, which is dead at ten pm anyway, was completely dead.
Chris completely shut down for sure.
All Right, we got a lot of games to get to.
What's new that we do we have? What are we going to get through here? Five? All right, Sunday early when no Falcons at the Bears, just.
Doing the show off the phone, Kelly. Atlanta seven and eight after they were win yesterday Chicago six and nine. Atlanta's still kicking here. They beat Indianapolis. Indianapos started out with a fourteen play seventy five yard drive tailor in from one seven to Zing Colts, but then Atlanta came right back five play seventy five yards Heineke to Pitts. They rediscovered Pits for twenty four tie ball game seven to seven. Halfway through the first teams traded punts that
Indianapols punted Atlanta three and out Indianapolis punt. It was on and on, and then it was a field goal fest from Young Hey cou coup twenty three yard or ten to seven Atlanta after in Indianapolis three and out coup from forty seven thirteen to seven Atlanta the half. Third quarter Atlanta eight play seventy five yards. Al jeer in from thirty one twenty to seven Falcons eleven thirteen
left in the third quarter. Matt Gay would get a field goal to cut it to twenty to ten, but then coup from forty one twenty three to ten when Indianapolis got stopped on downs fourth and five at the Atlanta thirty eight Minshew and completed and tended for DJ Montgomery. Atlanta would get three and out, but then Indianapolis third and nine at their own seventeen Minshe would get picked by Jesse Bates that led to a coup thirty five
yard field goal twenty six to ten. After another four and out where they got stopped on downs where the Colts coup won more field goal, effectively ending at twenty nine to ten, Heinik He threw for two to twenty nine in victory beijon twelve for seventy two on the
ground seven catches for fifty they outgained the Saints. Excuse me, they gained the Occults rather four h six to two sixty two and then the Bears after the team straded punts in the Bears game, Chicago seventy four yards on six plays fields to Cole Comet for fifty three to start fields in from three for the score seven to nothing. Chicago. Arizona would punch. Chicago would then go eleven plays ninety yards Khalil Herbert in from eleven to fourteen to nothing.
Bears early second quarter Arizona three and out. Then Chicago fifty four yards on eight plays fields to Marcedes Lewis, Well year in the city is Lewis? What year is this? From one out, twenty one to nothing Chicago. Chicago will lead it twenty one to seven. After a seventy five yard Arizona drive at the half, Raider would get a field goal fifty five yard of from Prader. That's his eightieth kick of fifty yards or more in his career of the record, that would cut it to twenty one
to ten. Chicago would answer with a field goal to make it twenty four to ten Santos from forty nine, and then really it was cosmetic from there, even though at one point I shouldn't say that Arizona got an eight place eighty drive Kyler to Dortch for thirty eight. What an amazing run after the catch by him to the house. It was twenty four to sixteen. The two point conversion failed six thirty seven to go, and they
would get the ball back with all three timeouts. Arizona would but fourth and six from their own twenty seven. They decided to go for it incomplete and that effectively ended it when Santos would cash into twenty nine yard field well twenty seven to sixteen. Bears fields fifteen to twenty seven for one to seventy nine carries for ninety seven and a touch on the ground. Herbert got a one hundred and twelve in a touch on the ground as well comet one oh seven in the passing game.
Before he left the game. I will say the Chicago Bears by an even.
Three ding ding Ding Bears three at DraftKings in most places right now two and a half actually at circa the low point in the market moving on early windows Sunday Raiders at Colts.
Let me just say this about the Bears. To me, there's no question they roll with Justin Fields. Do not draft another quarterback? Yeah, you know what makes plays that no one else can make.
I've been thinking about this way too much recently. I completely agree, and I've kind of been that guy in that camp when you just go back and look at his overall record, though it's tough, and I understand that says a lot about more about the team and the pieces around him.
The dude's got eight wins in his NFL if. By the way, I'm a fan of Washington. I would take Justin Fields tomorrow.
Oh of course. Yeah, yeah, Like you gotta like hitting me, Like, if they decide to move on, it's because they must see a high upside in the NFL draft and they're gonna get They're gonna get a fair amount for Justin Fields. I do believe that, all right.
What you say was next Raiders and Goals six and eight, Raiders eight and seven, Colts. We just talked about the Colts. Minshew twenty thirty seven for two to oh one outgained by Atlanta. The Colts were four h six to two sixty two. We'll talk about the Raiders a bit later because they play today. Colts by three, I'll say to even three here as well. This one is three, I believe right on the dot. Yet three on this one as well, and Colts still have a shot to make
the postseason. We'll get in all the playoff implications tomorrow on the show next Early Window Rams at Giants, Rams coming off the thirdday night whin. We already talked about that on Friday. They're eight and seven. They are in on the inside looking out of the NFC playoff picture, if you will, at the Giants, who again play the
Eagles today. The eight and seven Rams at the five and nine Giants, so sight unseen on the Giants here, I'll say the Rams by six on the road or on the road, just as a placeholder.
Ram six and a half a point favorites right now on the road, which is pretty accurate. I don't like anything yet.
Cardinals at Eagles Early Window on Sunday. Eagles, of course play today. They host the Giants up to a fourteen point favorite. Here at circa I will say the Eagles Kyler, by the way, was twenty four thirty eight for two thirty in defeat against the Bears yesterday Eagles by seven and a hook.
Against the Cardinals. Must be must be way higher. Twelve twelve and a half? Oh, okay, you gonna bite on the fightcy Cardinals. Cardinals will still a fight.
Let me tell you if the if the Eagles, let's say the Eagles have no injuries today, it's twelve and a half.
That's ten. Okay, Yeah, I think it makes sense, though, You're like, you're talking about what two points better? What the Giants are?
Yeah, clearly short guests sucked, But I'd still consider twelve.
And a half there, Yeah, I think I would.
Unless you believe in the hole the Cardinals are trying to lose to preserve the Yeah.
I just don't think they are. I think the Cardinals and the Bears are like two of those teams trying way too hard. Right now, do one more? All right? Early Windows Saints at Bucks. All Right, this is a huge game in the NFC South. Saints are seven and eight and the Bucks lead that division at eight and seven. Tampa Bay after McLaughlin twenty four yard field goal to make it three to nothing, Tampa Bay Jacksonville third and
fifteen at the Tampa Bay forty seven. I mean this game was more of a statement about the Jaguars, your Jaguars, Kelly.
Bidlin, Yeah, than it was about the Bucks, I think. But third and fifteen at the Tampa Bay forty seven, Lawrence picked by Devin White. Tampa Bay turned that in to a ten play, fifty six yard drive, including Mayfield four yard run on fourth and two from the Jacksonville eighteen. Four plays later, Mayfield to Evan from three out, ten
to nothing, Bucks twelve fifty three left second quarter. Then McManus missed a fifty two yard or wide Wright Cool McGlaughlin mcgloughlin cash that in with a thirty one yard and make a thirteen to nothing Tampa Bay two twenty seven left in the second quarter. Then Jacksonville second and five of their own forty one Lawrence picked again by Antwine Winfield Junior, who won thirty four left second quarter.
Tampa Bay turned that into another drive seven plays, sixty five yards Mayfield to Evans for twenty two twenty to nothing, like literally one thirty four left on the clock. They're like, let's just matriculate and score again, two twenty four to eighty four and total yards in the first half. Trevor Lawrence should never have been cleared to play?
Yeah, should he should have been played?
You should have been playing. There were plus two and turnovers in the first half that led to plus fourteen Tampa Bay points. Third quarter, third play first and to have their own forty nine. Lawrence sacked by ya Ya Diaby, fumbles recovered by Diaby. That is the signature of Trevor Lawrence's career.
Sorry killing, He's loose with the football, lose for the football.
Wise, He's not a generational player.
He's very comparable right now. He's a poor man's Josh Allen. He's a destitute man's Josh Allen. Okay.
Tampa Bay five plays forty two yards wide in from two twenty seven to nothing Bucks eleven thirty left third quarter, then Jacksonville fourth and thirteen at the Tampa Bay forty after delay call, Lawrence incomplete pass intended for Agnew. Tampa Bay would get another Chase McLaughlin a fifty one yard field goal thirty to nothing Bucks late third quarter. The only thing left to say is they did get a garbage touchdown. Jacksonville did twice. Lawrence to Ridley from six out.
They missed the two point conversion to make it thirty to six, and then Lawrence got hurt on that drive.
So CJ.
Bethard came in the game. He got himself a garbage touchdown thirty to twelve. That's how it would end, and not hurt like he reinjured ahead or anything like no shoulder into the sideline will be reevaluated today. Dog Peterson talking after the game, they don't think it's long.
Term or serious, but test coming today.
Tampa Bay minus four hosting the same It's in a big NFC South game.
That is Tampa Bay three. Right now, that's my first Tampa Bay. That's my first play.
I'm taking the Bucks.
There's even a couple of cheap threes out there that's interesting to me.
I have not bet it yet. I think I'm gonna be with you there, though that is a that line is too low. I do not believe in the Saints one bit. By the way, I don't mind either.
I mean it's the NFC South. I wouldn't be you know, if this gets up to like four four and a half, that'd be a no for me on the Bucks. Remind everybody what your Jags pre flop bets are just division bets. I've got multiple bets for them to win the division, like minus one fifty, minus one forty and gotta sweat out the next couple of weeks.
Gil, you got lucky. The entire division lost.
Yeah. Yeah, I was just thinking, hey, go steal one from Tampa.
Bay and this is looking real good, but no play an egg Lebizard is next on DK. We think we're coming back vs. In Live from Circuits, a numbers game right here on the Sports Betting Network.
The Numbers told the story they always do. It's one of those idiots analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander our number two of a numbers game at Visa, the Sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, game plus iHeart Radio YouTube TV. However, you're taking us in this morning. We appreciated.
It is Christmas Day.
Merry Christmas, Merry Christmas. Skill Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin. Yeah, we're just plowing through it. We'll be here in New Year's Day.
Too, by the way, Yeah we will.
We are someone called you will be Oh you're not gonna be here, that's right, we're just talking about during the break, Kelly takes a drinking day off on New Year's Day. I apologize, Wyatt, Tom Check will be in for Kelly Bidlin.
I'd really like to refute that statement, but no, it's justurate. I'll be with someone.
Someone on Twitter called us alpha's for being on the show today.
It's what we are. I'll really know what that means is gen xa alpha males is what he means. That's the way I took it. But maybe it's something else, some other cool sling I heard. I also heard that my age group it gets brought up at millennial millennial cringe. Apparently I didn't. I had to google. Hell that was cringe, which makes it probably more cringe, like more millennial cringe if you have to google what that means? Right, y X, the greatest generation? There you go? All right? You ready
for some more early window on Sunday? Still early? Wait, real quick? We have we do not have a Monday night football game this week? Or are they waiting to flex something bowl games? AH could call why Tom Check, that's what the story is.
The voice of God just spoken in my ear right says bowl games. That would make sense. So the NFL is deferring to college.
They are. So we are just Sunday this week? All right?
So how many early games do we have then on Sunday? Probably more than ever?
Ten? Oh god? Yeah, okay, good point ten. That's not fun, but that's also dumb.
Yes, there's a boy, oh boy, there's only three late window games. We couldn't take two of those and throw them on Saturday.
What are we scheduling? Drives me in sick. Hey, I'm so happy to catch the Bucks and Knicks here at about an hour. Oh wait, but they played it the same time two days ago? What are we doing in sports? All right? Forty nine ers and Commander's early window.
I don't think the screaming works as well in here?
Does it? That go too much?
Sure?
All right? What was it?
San Francisco?
Yeah, San Francisco Commanders. Oh boy, well.
San Francisco of course, the big game of them all tonight against the Ravens. We'll talk about these three games here momentarily. So sight unseen on the Niners at Washington. Jacoby, here's the can I just say this about the Commodoores. Jacoby Brissett is making Sam Howell until two weeks Ago. I was like, Oh, you can't blame any of this on Sam Howell. It's the line, you can't blame it for anything. And then Jacoby Brissette comes in and I get it. Maybe it's against softer defenses.
But he looks so much better. But in so much until you've officially given up on Sam Howe, you have to keep trotting him out there, right because you go figure out what you got.
Oh, for sure, Howell was six for twenty two in this game yesterday against the Jets for fifty six yards.
Is that good?
It's not good. Brissette was ten of thirteen for a HUNDI out gained three eighty one to two forty five by the Jettisons. San Francisco's got to be like a thirteen point favorite minimum here on thirteen.
And a half. Okay, thirteen and a half. So you were pretty dead. Oh so far?
I like Tampa Bay the most.
Yess what, we're still in the early window. Uh huh. Panthers had Jaguars.
The two and thirteen Panthers, the eight and seven jaguarres. You a Jaguars or Jaguars, Guy, Jaguars.
I don't know what you said. I don't know what you answered, eh.
Jaguars Carolina. After a punt, green Bay went seven plays eighty yards, dialing in from one seven to zhering Pack seven twenty three left first quarter after Pinero fifty two yard field goal to cut into seven to three. Jones thirty nine yard carry started the drive. Love one yard run ends at first play, second quarter, thirteen to three green Bay. Carlson anders, Carlson, that is missus the pat.
Carolina then eight play seventy seven yards Emir Smith Marsette from twenty out thirteen to ten, green Bay ten to twenty nine ten twenty nine. Pardon me left in this quarter. We did have somebody who had green Bay and survivor, so they had to sweat this out. Carlson fifty three yard field goals sixteen to ten, Pack seven to fifty one left in the second quarter. Then a Carolina punt. Green Bay then went eleven play sixty yards love to Dontavion Wicks from twenty one out twenty three to ten
green Bay. That would be the score at the half, and so okay, Packers backers feeling kind of good about themselves. But thenk Carolina does that third quarter thing that they always do. Fourteen play seventy two yard drive. It's like clockwork with them coming out of the break, including a fourth and one conversion. Hubbard in from four twenty three to sixteen green Bay Pinero misses the pat because of
course he did. Five eleven left third quarter. Then green Bay nine play sixty six yards Loved to Dobbs from five out first play fourth quarter, and the Packers re established a fourteen point lead thirty to sixteen. After Carolina punt green Bay three and out. Carolina the nine play sixty yards Bryce to dj Chark for eleven. They went for two, but a holding penalty forced them to kick the pat and Pinnero goes ahead and misses. That keeps it thirty to twenty two. Green Bay seven to fourteen
to go. Then after green Bay three, now Carolina goes seventy yards on five plays, Bryce to Chark from ten out and they get the two point conversion from Brahem blackshear we are tied at thirty with four h five to go. Man Bryce, Bryce, youong looked better yesterday than he has all year.
Yeah, his best game of the season, his best game of the season. But then Green May matriculates Carlson thirty two. Yr Field go thirty three to thirty, and then Carolina takes over with nineteen seconds to go, and you're like, well, they're gonna lose. But Bryce goes.
To Chark for twenty two, then to Feeling for twenty two, but the clock runs out.
Ball game.
They couldn't get another snap off, and I do believe it was the correct call, thirty three to thirty Green Bay. Bryce ended up with three hundred twelve yards passing, Chark had ninety eight of them in two touchdowns. They're taking on Jacksonville, you said, yep. Trevor Lawrence, by the way, was seventeen of twenty nine in defeat against Tampa Bay yesterday for two eleven. He had a fumble lost be third. It was eleven to fifteen for ninety four in relief.
But Jacksonville was minus four and turnovers in that game that led to plus twenty one net Tampa Bay points. As Jacksonville loses, much to Kelly Chagrin there fourth in a row, they'll still be big favorites against Carolina. I don't know how big.
I'll say six. Yeah, you're right on six. At DraftKings six and six to six and a half everywhere at other books.
But yeah, you're you're right in that ring because we don't know if Trevor Lawrence is gonna play mm hmm. I don't think you can assume he will. By the way, this thing, the whole thing about him never wanting to miss a game, sometimes you're better off.
Miss this game. Yes, yes, we've seen this from certain quarterbacks in the past, right, Like I don't like Farvin Romo come to mind, But it's like just to just to prove that you're the you're a tough guy. Like that's great, and we like everybody wants a tough quarterback
playing for him, there's no doubt about that. But you get to these certain situations where it's, okay, you're so bad it's a concussion, you've been dealing with some other injuries throughout the season, through the two that you've played through, and like at a certain point, and I think we hit that point yesterday where you going out to the onto the field is not really an upgrade if at all, from you from what Bethar would have been throughout the entirety of that game or Rourke.
They Jacksonville does have all the tie breakers, so you're still in good shape.
I mean, I got really lucky. You got.
There's no doubt about super lucky. One more here before the break.
Here Dolphins at Ravens.
Dolphins, with their win against the Cowboys, they go to eleven and four, can still get the number one seed. But here's the deal with the Dolphins. They could get the number one seed, they could also not win their division. So if the Dolphins lose this game at Baltimore, realistic, Buffalo wins out the second of which is a game
at Miami the final week of the season. So basically, Buffalo wins their last two the second witches against the Dolphins, and Miami loses their last two, the second of witches against the Bills and the first of which is here at Baltimore. Buffalo wins the AFC East, despite Miami's big win over Dallas yesterday and Baltimore where they play tonight, of course against the San Francisco forty nine ers. So
side on the scene. By the way, Tua in victory yesterday twenty four thirty seven for two ninety three tyreek nine for ninety nine, Miami does clinch a playoff berth No. Matter what happens in terms of whether they win the division, they will at the very minimum be a wildcard. There is no scenario where they can be knocked out. I said Baltimore minus three just as a placeholder.
Yeah, it's three. It's three everywhere. I don't know about you. I think that I will be looking at if the Niners take care of business tonight. Yes, it will be a back to Ravens in this spot because.
Next week, because Miami wins the bully Ball as we dubbed it last week. But this would be the opposite of that, right, I would go Baltimore and be right there with you, by the way.
About then happily lay three, like if it's anywhere near this number, silly, happily lay three.
In fact, I'm kind of rooting for the Niners to take care of business so that we can bet them, in which case, Tampa Bay and Baltimore will be my favorite so far that we've gone through. About that game today between the Dolphins and the Cowboys. We really didn't get a chance to talk about it ultimately, and I have the Dolphins it got there.
Did you did.
Anything happen in that game that made you feel any differently about either of those two. And I asked Ben Wilson the same question right after we got done watching the end of it after Lives.
It's a it's a resounding no. I don't feel any different about either one of those teams. Me neither. And I don't think that's a I don't think a knock.
It's they are.
It's not a knock, but it's not. It just means kind of knock because we've been called, we've been calling the bullies, and all you can beat up is bad teams. I think it would have been a little bit more like if the if the Cowboys went in and win that game handedly or one way or the other. Right, if if there was a dominant victory by one of those teams, I'd be feeling a little different.
You're right, it's a complete knock. Actually, you're right. It is because because they're both going to end up on the road and the postseason eventually. Right in the case of the Dolphins, maybe from the start, maybe not in
the case of the Cowboys. Now the Eagles are back in the driver seeing the Eagles go Giants Cardinals, Giants to close out, so the Eagles big favorite to win the NFC East now, which would mean the Cowboys would have a Well, they'll go to the NFC South, so maybe they win the first one, but they'll still be on the road. They're not gonna get to the Promised Land. And the Dolphins. I'll just do it by my bets, my exact as are Niners to be the Bills, Niners
to beat the Chiefs, Niners to beat the Ravens. I will not bet the Niners to be the Dolphins because I don't believe as great as they are to watch, yep, as fun as they are, they're the greatest team to watch in the NFL, the most speed we've ever seen for any team, but.
One of the best coaches too. I believe that it's just not everything is there.
And good for Tua yesterday because that final drive he needed to make it happen and he was great on that final drive.
Would have been interesting to see what MVP odds were today if the Dolphins didn't win that game. Kind of felt with Dak you mean, yeah, because it kind of fell like he's doing kind of felt like a bit of lego one of those Heisman moment drives at the end of the game.
I think I think if Purdy has any kind of credible game today, yeah, he is going to He's minus two fifty now to win the MVP. It's just gonna soar at this point. But I don't think that's a controversy you'll take.
At this point. Lock it up, let's go Niners. By the way, you could say the same thing about Lamar if Lamar has a great game, Yeah, yeah, sure, he's right in the mix. Yeah. Absolutely.
We got about five more games to get to, and we'll talk about the three games today in the NFL.
Of course, not all created equal, and.
All crescendos into that Baltimore San Francisco game tonight.
It's a numbers game from Vson. He's Sports Betting Network, Numbers Game, Sports Betting Network.
Before you make your next bet, he should have visit Visa dot com to check the current betting splits data. I want to know where the money and bets move with every NFL Are Bowl game. The betting slits pases updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action. Find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets and where the money does not match the public opinion. We're always improving our betting splits and recently added soccer betting
splits from around the world. And he splits yet another way that Visa is here to make you a smarter, better year round. Check them out all today's Betty splits for every game at Vison dot com slash splits. It's Gil Alexander, It's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa on this Christmas morning. You know that because Kelly's wearing a Sanaha, so you know it.
That's right. I hope you got all the pretty shirt too, So if you want to still call me, yeah, ready, very nice. I thought that was Christmas y. Maybe it's a little grinch like though too. I don't know. You miss being with family on Christmas morning? I love, yeah, of course.
I mean yeah, I don't even celebrate. I miss being with yeah exactly.
I mean this time of year, I think it's just great to be around uh good friends and family. For sure.
We get tweets at beating the book.
Although it would be tough today like this, this would be one of those days, yeah, where you'd feel like a bad family and where I'm trying to like rifle through three NFL games, in five NBA games. It's not a bad holiday to.
Be here to talk about you behind your back. Oh exactly, Kelly doesn't really want to spend time eleven Yeah, real nice Sean Renfrow, we get tweets. Merry Christmas to Gil and you Kelly. I listen to you guys every day when I'm out delivering mail in Greenwood, Indiana. Thank you both in the crack man for making my days. Thank you nice. Thanks for delivering our mail. Jeff Schwartz, hope his packages mailed out last week. Jason Wygarten, by the way,
is going to be on later this week. He feels bad about some of the things he said about federal employees. He wants to make amends, and.
Then he wants to tell another story where apparently he bashes them. It's till horrible.
Jeff Schwartz, Hey, Gil, we made reservations at CIRCA for Wednesday through Sunday of that first NCAA tournament weekend. Is there a process for reserving a spot at the sportsbook or is it just get there early? Oh no, it is not just get there early. All of these seats are accounted for back.
Uh. Yeah, it definitely worth calling about. Let me put that and it is. It is worth getting one of the tables here too. If you've got a good group of people, it's definitely worth doing that. I will say this is pounder Robert as Lane says. I won't be able to watch guessing lines next week, but with good reason. I'll be planted in a chair at Circa rooting my team on in the underwhelming relya Quest Bowl. After the big games later in the day, let's meet at er
kobuto at Omaya. See he thinks he wants to take a shot. Kobudo is not secret sushi, but it is fan It's really good. Yeah, it's really fantastic.
All right, we got games to get to her.
Yeah, we do the uh yeah that uh.
Kibudo is really good.
I've been there a couple of times. All right, you ready for the I think we're last our last early window game.
Good god, I know we're still in the early window. It's incredible. Titans at Texans five and ten, Titans eight and seven, Texans.
Maybe C. J.
Straut will be back next week. Maybe we don't know. Tennessee uh in their game yesterday gets Seattle three and out. Seattle punt, Tennessee punt Seattle three and out. Then Tennessee fifty seven yards on six plays. Henry to chicozium Ocon quote from twelve out seven and nothing Titans early second quarter. Then Meyers would at a field goal to cut it to seven to three. Folk would answer ten to three Tennessee late second quarter. That would be the score at
the half. Seattle had ninety three total yards in the first half. They're down seven. Myers would cut it to ten to six, and then after Tennessee punt Seattle ten plays ninety six yards, they'd wake up Gino to DK from eleven out thirteen to ten Hawks. They take their first lead with twelve ten left to the fourth quarter, but the Titans would answer fourteen plays seventy five yards.
You okay? Ever there, You're good?
Yeah, fourteen plays seventy five yards, including a fourth and one conversion at the Seattle twenty seven. Henry eventually in from one Titans lead at seventeen to thirteen with three twenty one to go. Could Seattle work the magic two weeks in a row? The answer yes, third and fourteen at their own thirty two two minute warning, Gino to Jackson Smith jig but for eighteen, two plays later to lock it for two, twelve to JSN for three, then
to lock it for eight. Two plays later pi on Trey Avery checking d K and then Seattle set up at the Tennessee five first in goal one oh nine to go. Three plays later, Gino to coolby Parkinson, great catch from five out, twenty to seventeen Seahawks, fifty seven seconds to go. Tennessee has one time out? Did you trust Ryan Tannehill? Tennessee would get it to midfield with twenty nine seconds left, but with zero timeouts, and then Tannehill, the veteran, does the one thing you can't do, get
sacked Yeah by Dramont Jones. Oh, that would effectively end at twenty to seventeen Seahawks. They're on the inside looking out of the NFC playoff picture now. Tannehill eighteen of twenty six for one fifty two in defeat, And we already talked about Houston. Keenum was eleven of seventeen for sixty two. He got benched for Davis Mills, who was fifteen of thirty two with two touches in that game.
If it is C. J.
Stroud and that would, of course put a damper on the whole Poka Nakua run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The other thing, real quick, it's interesting about that, is do you it'd probably even be more or less likely of him returning if you had what the Colts and Jags win yesterday?
Correct?
Right? Like, that's another part of this equation. But should your.
Playoff standing affect your concussion protocol? The answer is no.
No, it shouldn't, especially with a first year quarterback.
I said, Houston minus two and a half or three. If it's c J, it's say three three and a half painted right now, I don't know if he's playing or not. Concussion protocol is a funny thing.
And we don't know, I mean, we don't know what's going on with the Tennessee quarterback situation either. Yeah, because that Levis could be back all right. Sunday late window four oh five Eastern.
It's ere Steelers at se Thank god? How many how many late games are there?
Three? There's only three? Man, that's just so stupid.
Yes, so ten and then three, eight and seven Steelers on the outside looking in. Despite their win over Cincinnati on Saturday at Seattle again on the inside of the NFC playoff picture right now, Seattle. In this ballgame we just talked about, let's talk about Pittsburgh first on Saturday. Pittsburgh. This is the one game I got wrong so far. Three and one in millions, two to zero in megapod, but three and one in millions. I had Cincinnati in
this game. Boy was that done quick? Pittsburgh two plays ninety two yards fifty two seconds Roodolph to Pickens for eighty six. That established the entire tone of the game. Seven to nothing Steelers ten forty five left in the first quarter. Then Cincinnati third and nine at the Pittsburgh sixteen. Browning picked in the end zone by Patrick Peterson. Just a horrible, horrible decision by Jake Browning. The Jake Browning sort of come up AND's happened in this game. Pittsburgh
ten plays eighty yards five forty off the clock. Calvin Austin in from seven. Fourteen to nothing Steelers early second quarter. Then after Sincy three and out of Pittsburgh punt Cincinnati first and tenth theirre on eighteen Browning picked by Eric Rowe. Pittsburgh four plays fourteen yards nause In from three twenty one to nothing Steelers and then Cincinnati four than one at the Pittsburgh five late first half. Gotta get some
points here, browning incomplete intended for Higgins. Oh really, that was the ballgame. Pittsburgh starts at their own five, two fourteen left. They'd get a Boswell fifty yard field. It was twenty four to nothing Steelers at the half. Third quarter contact cosmetic pardon me spit again, bardon me kind of cosmetic here twenty four to eight, But then the Steelers would answer to make it thirty one to eight.
That was the ball game. Rudolph seventeen of twenty seven for two to ninety pickins had one ninety five of those with two touchdowns. He answered all the grills.
Oh man, yeah, I mean he didn't answer the critics about his blocking, but he sureless good for selling catching the ball and run it.
Who needs blocking.
When I catch for one ninety five and two touches plus three in turnovers, by the way, led to plus seventeen net Pittsburgh points. Gino in the Seattle win was twenty five to thirty six for two twenty seven. Put it all in the wash. I'll see Seattle minus four
and a half. Here's the deal again with the Mike Tomlins Dad with that win, and we said, he's got a win to keep this streak of his entire seventeen year career of never having it, having had it, losing season that before last week he had to go one to one in one and Cincinnati was the was the was the game he had to win. Yeah, now he's gotta go oh one and one in these last two games.
My alt under seven and a half. That's dead. Now I'm sweating the under nine, sweating the under nine.
You'll get the under nine.
Your guess is four and a half, four and a half. The line is three and a half. It opened at three. I betted it three.
That's a good bet.
I bet Seattle at three. That was at three, was at three. Yeah, I betted at three, So I even doubled down. I guess on my Steeler's position gets to the Steelers position.
But I mean in the same way that was good on Drew Locke two weeks ago, or the last week, I should say, was Seattle good on Mason Rudolph, who again we talked about maybe we you know, have we ever seen him? And Luca Gar's in the same place.
By the way, I was just gonna I was gonna make that joke. I'm texting that like last week.
Also, they they both wore black and yellow, right, black and gold. He does look like Luca Garzlap for sure. But good on Mason Rudolph again one of these guys. We tend to give up on people quick. But if you stay in the same system and you hold a clipbab, yeah, you come back pretty good.
So to that point real quick, when they said it had been like over two years, Yeah, did you I have the thought of, wait, we haven't seen Mason Ruolf for two years. I feel like we've seen him for like a week or two, like every year over the past like four years.
No, I mean, but the fact that that you can stick with the same team for that long now is also rare when you don't play yep. So good on him and good on the Steelers, and that was obviously a huge blow to the Bengals. Chances both are still alive. But I think the Seahawks a better football team here. So at three, good for you. You got a great bet in there. What is it NOWT three and a half?
Yeah, three and a half? Three and a half might buy that down to three and play it that. There's there's a couple cheap three and a half's out there, so yeah, you might be able to buy that down, not at a crazy price. I do see a couple and there actually are a couple threes around the world.
All right, so far then Tampa, Tampa Bay, I like the best at the current number.
Baltimore, if it's three after to that, I think we both got that one's circles.
Yeah, and I might buy Seattle down there it's three and a half, I might.
Fight out against the Steelers.
A few more games to get to, and then we got to talk about the three games today.
Full play to football on this Christmas Day.
Merry Christmas from a numbers game at Feasts the Sports Betting Network, coming right backs, Gil, Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live from a circle on this Christmas morning.
We are live.
This is not taped. We're actually doing this.
We are that is true, We are actually here. All right.
We got a few more games to get to and then we'll get to today's games.
What we get left? All right? Sunday four to twenty five, Eastern Chargers at Broncos.
Chargers at Broncos. Boy, those Chargers just stopped playing for Brandon Staley, didn't they like that? Performance? On Saturday? Was like, oh, you guys actually might like your coaching now, right, Yeah? Five and ten Chargers. By the way, Easton Stick was twenty three of thirty three and defee for two fifteen. He was sacked five times. They were plus three and turnovers that led to plus thirteen net Chargers points didn't
matter in that game. At Denver. We already talked about Denver's outright loss as a seven and a half point favorites yesterday against the Patriots, which had huge survivor implications, knocked down circus survivor remaining entrance from ten to four.
Which is and all four have the Eagles.
Today Christmas standalone week in case you missed it earlier, So no business transactions had to happen today. If the Giants were to somehow went out right, the contest would be over. Everybody would chop that and it would be properly done with CIRCA issuing the proper tax forms. But if the Eagles win, which obviously that's expected to happen, those four are not automatically gonna chop they're gonna have to sort of think it out themselves see what they
want to do. And we'll have Greg Jones on the show tomorrow of one of the four remaining.
Can't wait to talk to him again. I do think that Joe Pede tweets interesting if just if you know, everybody saw on the Eagles. Yeah, bet a little Eagles today, like you bet some money on the Eagles today.
Yeah, although the money line is so prohibitive it's minus seven something. But I mean if you have listen, if you have thirty five thousand dollars laying around, there's five thousand for it.
Maybe one of those situations that be getting down whatever it could. I mean, worst case scenario, you're chopping up nine million dollars with four or three other peoples.
Yeah, I mean if that's that's exactly right. Yeah, charges at Denver, this would happens. Sean Payton. When you you say you're gonna come on a numbers game and then you say that, you say you're coming on, then you don't. Oh that was Sean Perry. Oh I'm sorry, Sean Payton. Sean Payton, Sean Payton, Carba, Sean Payton, how's that looking right now.
By the way, I.
Said that at the end of the game yesterday with the Broncos.
It's like amazing the things that stick with you through a season though, you know what I mean like that is it was well because you.
Broke the whole fraternity of coaches thing and went after Nathaniel Hack. It like, bro, you won one Super Bowl and you had Drew Brees. You're not Joe Gibbs. Stop just stop it. By the way, you were scab in nineteen eighty seven.
Also, we never talked about Drew Brees and hair last week. Oh yeah, that was odd. Oh.
I do want to say this one thing. You know, while I was saying when I was doing the recap of that game, and I was like, you know, Belichick wanted to go to overtime and Sean Payton wouldn't let him with the two timeouts. I still think that was the proper thing for Sean Payton to do.
Me too, Yes, it just it just backfire, Yeah, just backfired. Yeah. I would have been doing the same thing.
Broncos minus three. I don't know what else to make it.
This is man, where did this open? This is Broncos five and a half? What right now? Yeah, we are five and a half or.
Six I'll tell you, Oh, y'all like all this on this Broncos bandwagon, it was always fraudulent. They're five and a half point favorites against the joke, there's six places the Chargers enough to like run to bet that, but like, no, that seems high, doesn't that seem It's always.
Yes, it's always this time of the year though, where you run into these situations, right, it's the Okay, some team's mailed it in for the season, making vacation plans, and you're getting more points, more points than you should be getting with them. But do you really have enough guts to go and make the bet?
Broncos really had it on their racket to get into the postseason. That loss last night puts their their playoff chances at just over two percent. Now, wow, according to some models, I think that's too high, but I'm not racing.
I couldn't do that all right, last late window game four to twenty five Eastern Bengals at Chiefs.
Chief's about to play here in a little less than an hour and a half, hosting the Raiders, which we'll get to here in the next segment. The Bengals in that loss on Saturday to the Steelers, and that was a brutal loss for them in terms of their playoff hopes though they've got a shot, but still not good now. Browning twenty eight to four, two for three thirty five, but he was picked three times, He got Zack three times,
Higgins five for one for a touchdown. They were minus three in turnovers that led to plus seventeen net Pittsburgh Steeler points in that game. Bengals are eight and seven. Chiefs are nine to five headed into today's game. I said, Chiefs minus seven and a hook.
Yeah, this is seven and a half or eight everywhere right now, So you're basically right on it. I think that makes a lot of sense. On the Sunday Night football, Sir, Sunday Night Football Packers at Vikings.
All right, So both the Packers and Vikings are seven and eight. Both are on the outside looking in. They can't win the division. Lions obviously clinch that. Lion's way ahead of them in the lost column. Obviously in the NFC North anyway, so that wouldn't even be close. But in terms of the wild card right now, the Vikings are in the eighth position. So just outside and Green Bay. I mean, there's four teams that are seven and eight, one game behind the NFC playoff teams. The Rams and
the Seahawks are both eight and seven. Those are the Kings, the Falcons, the Packers, and the Saints. So they need help. The only way to get that help is to win this one. Green Bay in their win, their their win that they just hung on to against the Panthers. Jordan Love seventeen of twenty eight for two nineteen, two touchdowns, no picks, he did get a touchdown on the ground. Jones twenty one twenty one for one to twenty seven.
And then Minnesota Nick Mullins, the Nick Mullens experience twenty two of thirty six for four to eleven, four eleven.
It's an experience, all right.
Two touchdowns, four picks, sack four times, Jefferson six for one forty one of those in a touchdown.
Yeah, incredible.
Josh Dobbs would have been able to play with justin Jefferson. You know what the Vikings should have been doing post Kirk Cousins, now that we've seen both of them play, they should have had Nick Mullens playing in between the twenties and then put Dobbs in there in the red zone because he makes plays that neither of them can or.
The other one that I here's what I can't figure out with the whole Vikings quarterback situation. Whatever happened to the Jared whole thing.
Oh, he was the immediate backup to for the thousands, and he's also the backup now to Mullins, right, and then got hurt and that's when they went and got Dobbs. Obviously O'Connell hated Dobbs from.
Day one, didn't even want him there. He goes to Mullins. But Jared Hol's now healthy. Why hasn't he gotten a chance?
Well, because Mullins throws for four eleven, so I understand why I'm still in there. But then like right, turn the ball over. It's like, Okay, you're really good. Oh you're not good. That's all right, right, I forgot.
Like you said, it's an experience.
That duck at the end though, like Jefferson is just waiting for that ball.
It's that was bad. The only thing I can defend him with though, is when you basically throw a what was that like a third and twenty, like like a hail Mary to Justin Jefferson with like two guys hanging all over him, and he comes down with the ball like the stud wide receiver, like you want to give the ball to him. I get it.
I'll say vikings minus three. I don't know what else to make this.
This is under the three. It is vikings two or two and.
A half everywhere two or two and a half. Okay, all right, so we look back on this alon. We'll just do one more time, because again, the whole point of all of this is the this exercise has been spectacular for us all year, and again it's led to if you listen to the Megapod on Thursday again guessing lines of the Megapod, both on the beating the book feed,
we're all podcasts are distributed and available. By the way, again, I'm thirty one and fifteen this year based on these first instincts and to me this past week having hit on and this is the difference, by the way, and I want to say this again, Oh, if you're so good, why aren't you uh, why aren't you cashing in millions? Great question, glad you asked, because on the Megapod we just do the top three picks and then in millions you have to go five. Well, if we keep it
to three, i'm your guy. As soon as we go to five, I'm not here. I'm not your guy anymore.
I think I'm really not. I think there's a reason why they settled on that n at the beginning.
Yeah, but that dreaded fifth pick always the.
F it is the worst, and you're supposed to go fifty to fifty on that.
But I guarantee you I'm not feel I know I'm not this, but it feels like lifetime. I'm hitting those hit like a twenty one percent clip.
Do you have a pulse in circum millions? By the way, do you have a heartbeat going in there?
I have a pulse. I have a pulse. It was so this quarter I needed. If I'm going to cast season long at all, I'm gonna cash in the courridor probably three to one and one first week of the quarter and second week. This third week, I'm sitting on three and one with niners pending today.
If I have a great two final weeks, I will probably finish like one hundred and eightieth, right, which will which will just be the booby prize of all boo.
I like, I haven't. I haven't been checking the standings because I'm at that point where I'm like, i'd rather like we'll find out. Yeah, I'll check it last week, right, But I kind of have a feeling like if I do is even if I do that, great, I'm probably in the same situation you are.
So I like Tampa Bay the best. I like Baltimore. If it remains three after tonight's game, correct, I'll be on that too. Tampa Bay hosting who's Tampa Bay hosting again? Tampa Bay hosting the Saints, Baltimore hosting the Dolphins. I kind of like the Chargers getting the points on the road at Denver, but not enough to like race to bet that because I just don't. I mean, maybe that was the Chargers moment new coach. So I don't know.
If I I understand your guests, I understand where the line is, I would have no idea, no desire to go actually yet that I think you're right. I bet the Seahawks. I laid the three with the Seahawks. I might bet that down with it, and then I think I might do. I'm not betting it yet. I don't think there's any reason to rush on this one. I have a feeling I'll be doing a money line parlay on the Browns and Cowboys. Actually in the two Earls.
Like the Cowboys in that and on the money line parlay, and I especially like them. The Browns just got to beat the Jets seven and no at home, or the Cowboys
Don't doctor