Beating The Book: 2023 NFL Week 11 Guessing Lines Show

up there? Oh? No, there it is Kelly Bidlin. Everybody, Week eleven is what we're gonna do here on the show. It's Gil Alexander. That is the voice of Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How's your weekend? Man? Good? Yeah? It was okay, Circle million. That's good. That's done. You're done, ze, I think, So what do you do on three and one? How about you? I'm having a dream season? Man, who you want to roll? Recently?

I'm on Fire three and one, Bill's pending tonight fourteen and one run on the megapod and were it need fourteen and one? Dude? If it were not for that oh to five and millions, I'd be somebody. But I had and five. Yeah, and I had the to five week five, which is the beginning of a quarterly. So like it's that couldn't have been time more poorly. I went to one and four that same week. We both did terrible that week. Yeah. That suck. It always sucks

to start off a quarter bat. Yeah. And for those who are just tuning in again for guessing lines, let me just say that this is the exercise that has worked out splendidly. Yes, as with any NFL betting success, the balls have to bounce your way on the on the plinko games, and so that has definitely happened this year. That's the thing Kelly too. It's like, I don't know, am I any better this year than it was last year?

Just that tho the plinko games have gone my way? Yeah, I think you have to be you have to be honest about that at times with us, and certainly at all times with the National Football League. But this is the exercise that has led us to those wins, and it really is a first reaction. I'm in a cocoon. I don't know the lines. We'll go through every game

that happened yesterday. I will guess what I think the line should be for a Week eleven matchup, Kelly will tell me what they actually are, and within that exercise we hope to extract value. That's the point of all of this, and man has it worked out in spades thus far this year. First, a Survivor update for those still alive and Survivor a Circus Survivor. By the way, I think Steve Feszick is going to be in the lead or a half game out in Circum Millions after

Week ten. But in Circus Survivor, a contest that started with nine two hundred and sixty seven entries at one thousand dollars a pop, meaning a nine point two six seven million dollar pot, four hundred and seventy five of the remaining eleven hundred and fifty three got knocked out yesterday, four hundred and twenty two of which were on the Bengals, or as Matt Brown calls them, the Bengals, or as

one of those announcers calls them, the Bengals. No one can seem to get it right anyway, four and twenty two out on them alone four in seventy five total, So that brings the initial nine thousand, two hundred and sixty seven pool down to six hundred and seventy eight. Who six to it now? Well, I mean last year there was only eighty six left, so ninety two point six eight percent have been knocked out this year so far. Last year was ninety eight point six percent. That's incredible.

There were only eighty six left at this point last year, but six hundred and seventy eight left this year. The intrinsic value of each moves up to thirteen thoy, six hundred and sixty eight dollars and fourteen cents. Congratulations to everybody who's still alive. Obviously, we got games coming up this Sunday, followed right by the Thanksgiving three game fest in Circus Survivor, where that acts as its own week.

So good luck to all the remaining who have the six hundred and seventy eight, some of whom still have ten entries left, by the way, all ten they've been shoving on each each and every one of these weeks, so good luck to all those folks. Let us begin with the Thursday night game and we'll try to extract some value on week eleven. That's what this is all about.

What do you got? We got the open first day lines here we go Monday, butter fuck you would think one of these weeks I'd be like, oh, yeah, there's an open to this Thursday night, the big one. Bengals at Ravens. Oh, we got a great Thursday night. Know, we really do. As opposed to that drek we saw last week, It's like these two teams were looking ahead. Yeah, so Cincinnati had Baltimore Cincinnati. We just talked about how they crushed survivor players. Boy boy, was that a rollercoaster

of a game opening drive yesterday against the Texans. Sixty yard drive Borrow to Trenton Irwin from thirty two yards out seven and I think Cincinnati. Then after a trade of puntch Houston had it all the way down fourth and won at the Cincinnati nine. They fumbled the snap and they failed to convert at the end of the first quarter. So everything going Cincinnati is a way in the first But then after a Cincinnati three and out, Houston goes sixty six yards Stroud to Dell Tank Dell.

What a find from six out seven to seven with ten thirty three left in the second quarter. Then the Bengals would have two three and outs the rest of the half, while Houston drive would be stopped on a strip sack of Stroud by Logan will and Trey Hendrickson on third and six at the Cincinnati thirty one Mike Hilton recovering. So it'll be ten seven Houston at the half. So think about that. Houston's up only three at the half. But yet they've had two deep penetrations into Cincinnati territory

that ended up in turnovers. Second half one hundred by the way, at halftime, one hundred and ninety eight yards passing for CJ. Stroud. It's almost like the Panther should have picked him first. Still so angry about the NFL draft betting, SEEJ is Stroud By the way, we'll get to this. Not only is he now the ridiculous prohibitive favorite for Rookie of the Year, it's it's not even a market anymore, but down to thirty to one in

some spots for MVP. Here's the thing. If you do the blind resume test, he could very well be the MVP. The problem is we have stupid, flawed human brains and they're not gonna They're not gonna make him MVP on top of Rookie of the Year.

settle for the field goal. Thirteen to seven Houston nine twenty six left, third quarter, and then after Cincinnati three and out, Houston goes sixty yards, spurred by a forty two yard PI where they just completely ran over Dell.

Two plays later, Singletary in from six out, twenty to seven Houston seven oh eight left at the third quarter, and the Cincinnati survivor players are like, oh no, Now it's twenty to ten after a McPherson fifty yard field goal after Houston three and out, though Cincinnati goes seventy three yards. Burrow on a scramble beautiful sixty four yard touchdown passed that chase on a dime twenty to seventeen Houston ten seconds left in the third, and the Cincinnati

survivor players were like, yes, this is gonna happen after all. Noope. Ensuing drive, Houston go seventy five yards on six plays, Stroud in from eight twenty seven to seventeen Houston twelve forty seven to go. Following drives, Cincinnati matriculates, and here's where it gets really weird. For Bro, We've replaced your normal Joe Burrow with a cheap imitation because Burrow then overthrows a pass picked by DeAndre Houston Carson nine thirty

five to go. Then after another Houston pun Cincinnati matriculates again first and one at the thirteen of Houston Burrow picked by Shaquille Griffin. One of the worst passes you'll ever see. Joe Burrow, uh, you know, actually throw three fifty three to go. Bengals are on death's door at this point, but then Stroud on third and two at their own twenty eight three forty one to go, picked

by Cam Taylor britt return to the fourth. It's only Stroud's second pick of the year that leads to a mix and one yard score twenty seven to twenty four Houston three eighteen to go, but Cincinnati only has one time out left, so with no timeouts left for Cincinnati, all Houston had to do was convert a third and three to ice it with two twenty six remaining, but a three and out instead. Cincinnati gets the ball back down three two ten to go at their own twenty nine.

Second play of the drive, Burrow to Boyd for sixty four mostly yak first and goal at the Houston seven with one fifty three to go. The Cincinnati survivor players are like, we're gonna do this, but a sack then Burrow for only one. Then Boyd drops a would be touchdown pass right through his hands. They settle for the first and thirty one yard field goal with one thirty three to go. Way too much time fors drought five plays to get from their own twenty five into field

goal range. Matt Ammondola off the streets through the uprights thirty eight yards, the first of five walkoffs of the day. Thirty to twenty seven. Houston and the Cincinnati Survivor players are done. So Burrow twenty seven to forty for three forty seven, two touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked four times, Chase five for one to twenty four in a touch Boyd eight for one seventeen. They gave up five hundred

and forty four total yards to Houston. And then there's Baltimore, which this game started against the Browns, like every Baltimore game seems to second play at the game from scrimmage, second and six at their own twenty nine, thirty four seconds into the game, DeShawn picked by Kyle Hamilton to the house eighteen yards, seven to nothing Baltimore. Then after Cleveland punt, Baltimore goes seventy nine yards. Cayden Mitchell in from thirty nine. Man, is he fast? Fourteen to nothing Baltimore,

ten oh eight left in the first quarter. We're not even five minute. It's in and Baltimore's doing it again. Yep, they're running away with a children come out this story with four ten. Yeah, they're not fourteen to three now. Lamar to Mitchell for thirty two. The big play that leads to a Tucker thirty seven yard field goals seventeen

to three, now seventeen to six. Tucker fifty five yard field goal tried blocked by Jordan Elliott Anthony Walker with the return to fourteen left in the second quarter, seventeen to nine. Now, by the way, fifty two seconds left in the second quarter, First intended their own thirty six Lamar picked by Mike Ford on either a severely underthrown ball or a miscommunication, but Cleveland can't capitalize, so it

remained seventeen to nine at the half. There were so many times when we thought Baltimore was just gonna win this game. There was a There was one of them where you're like, oh, I'm still seventeen to nine. Second half opening drive, Baltimore goes seventy eight yards Lamar to obj mostly Yack for forty twenty four to nine. Baltimore Ravens are gonna coast Nope. Seventeen play, seventy five yard drive that took ten minutes and nine seconds for Cleveland,

Hunt in from three, Watson two point conversion. It's twenty four to seventeen Baltimore to twenty left three quarter. Third quarter, Browns would then force a punt down just seven, but James proshe muffs it, recovered by Devin Duverne, aided by a couple defensive holds. Gus eventually in from one thirty one to seventeen. Baltimore with eleven thirty four to go again. You're like guys, like a third time. Baltimore is clearly gonna win this game. Noupe. Cleveland goes seventy five yards

thirty one to twenty four. Baltimore now Watson to Elijah Moore from ten out eight fifty seven left. By the way Stefanski went for one new analytics, folks, he didn't. He didn't do the old eight to six thing there. Then ensuing drives, second played Lamore picked by Greg Newsom, off a high deflection to the house thirty one thirty, but Hopkins misses the pat. Baltimore is gonna get lucky

and win this again. Nope, Baltimore forced to punt. Cleveland gets it back with four to fifty five to go down one fourth play of the drive, first intend at their own thirty one. Browns then survive Dafe o Way stripsack of Watson when offensive lineman Wyatt Teller recovers it.

Remember Kelly, we never remember those moments. Fumble luck, then seventeen to Cooper on the next play at Deshawn's sixteen yard run two plays later, and ultimately a Hopkins walk off forty yard field goal to win at thirty three thirty one Cleveland in improbable fashion. Lamar finishes with only thirteen completed forward passes thirteen of twenty three for two twenty three, one touchdown, two picks, sack three times, eight cars of forty one. What a game Thursday night this

will be? I said, Baltimore minus three just made it the field goal. I didn't know what else to make it. We are so that was the look ahead. It's out to three and a half at DraftKings, you could shop around three and a half or four is where this game is sitting at right now. They gave him the hook, Yeah, they gave him a hook. We don't really know which one of these, which one of these teams will looked worse yesterday. I guess Cincinnati. I'll tell you what. Lamar

or Joe Burrow didn't advance their MVP candidacies very much. No, Yeah, that's for sure. All right, that's Thursday night. We'll get to Sunday guessing lines. It's a numbers game, at least in these sports betting network. Here are three reasons Zen is America's number one nicotine pounch. We use food grade ingredients. We have a wide selection of varieties and they all come in two strengths. Find Zin at a store near you. Warning this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.

It's skill. Alexander Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for Week eleven, live from bar Canada at the d we get tweets at beating the book straight. A couple here, Chris sells at ct sales Gil what a Survivor roller coaster. I was going to take Cincinnati, but I switched to Baltimore for three quarters. I was thinking I'm a genius. Baltimore will win and Cincinnati will lose. After the game, I didn't watch another second of football today. I woke up

feeling like I've lost my best friend. Yeah, losing your survivor entry late is about as brutal as it gets. Yeah, because you start to feel it, you start to taste it, guys like me come on the air every weekend. They're like intrinsic value thirteen thousand, you know, and then it goes away.

Do you guys feel it in the air, the autumn air, the brown and red leaves, the Christmas lights going up, the eggnog for sale, and of course Baseball Awards a week Oh yeah, good forget Andy's Miami Heat on a five game winning streak. Baseball Awards For those who missed it, would you like the schedule? Here it go Tonight Rookie of the Year.

they both have buys. But have we seen the end of Mac Jones? Back Jones who was benched? So I would say one thousand if Zappi didn't throw that interception and then but Zapi like they didn't he didn't practice that, he didn't practice like you can't, right, you can't when if you decide to bench Mac Jones in that situation, you can't go back to that guy like not this season? Right, wouldn't be surprised either way the paper. That's the thing.

I wouldn't be shocked either way to either Patriots have two wins. Will Bill Belichick be their coach next season? I don't know.

They win it twenty three to nineteen, three and a half points spread in this game, opening drive seventy five yards, helped along by seventeen yard pass interference nause in from four to seven to nothing Pittsburgh and suing drive, green Bay came right back sixty nine yards love to Dobbs Romeo Dobbs in the corner of the end zone. What a beautiful pass by Jordan Love from eight out seven to seven, four to forty two left in the first quarter.

Then the next drive, Pittsburgh goes sixty yards. Jalen Warren in from sixteen fourteen to seven Pittsburgh less than a minute into the second quarter, seventeen to seven game. Now Green Bay gos eighty yards a Dylan forty yard run. The big play third and sixteen at the Pittsburgh thirty five Love to Jayden Reed touchdown. Another beautiful pass by Jordan Love. Honestly, Jordan Love was great in this game. Those passes like if he doesn't make them perfectly, this

might have been a blowout. Seventeen to thirteen Pittsburgh. Carlson's pat I'm talking about Andrews. Carlton's pat blocked. His pat attempt blocked, so it remains seventeen to thirteen. That never comes back and haunts you never four to fourteen left in the second quarter, that would be the score. Halftime, third quarter, Carlson from thirty one made it seventeen to

sixteen Pittsburgh. Then he made one from twenty eight gave Green Bay their first lead to the game at nineteen to seventeen, then Boswell from forty nine twenty to nineteen Pittsburgh, and then after a green Bay three and out and a subsequent trade of punts, Pittsburgh gets a thirty five yard Boswell field goal twenty three to nineteen, five to fourteen to go. Green Bay matriculates second to nine at the Pittsburgh fourteen. They're fourteen yards away from taking a

lead three point thirty two to go. Love picked off in the end zone on a defect on a deflection by Patrick Peterson into the hands of Kean O'Neil three twenty to go. Green Bay would get the ball back with fifty nine seconds to go at their own nineteen. Jordan Love brings them downfield. Spurred on by Love to Jayden Reid forty six yard connection and a subsequent fourth and two conversion, green Bay gets into the Pittsburgh sixteen three seconds left. Love picked by demonte Caze ball game

twenty three to nineteen. Pittsburgh holds on and courtesy of the missed extra point, they cover pick at fourteen of twenty three for one, twenty six no touchdowns, no Pixie to sack once Jalen Warren fifteen for one on one on the ground in a touchdown. Pittsburgh outgained by green Bay three ninety nine to three twenty four. Why is that significant? They're six and three and they've been out gained in every single game this season. Mike Tomlin and

the Magic Beans there plus two and turnovers. Those two picks at the end were the keys to preserve the win at Cleveland DeShawn yesterday and that win, that comfort behind win over Baltimore. Deshaun Watson was twenty of thirty four for two thirteen, one touchdown, one pick. You sacked

four times, eight carries for thirty seven yards. Jerome Ford seventeen for one oh seven, Cooper Mariy Cooper six for ninety eight through the air, ten penalties for fifty five yards for Cleveland Pittsburgh at Cleveland six and three teams, they are not at all similar. I will say Cleveland by six.

I didn't get to see a ton where I was on the air for a lot of it.

ten to three Detroit. Then after Herbert was picked by Kirby Joseph, Detroit set up at the Chargers thirty three. They converted fourth and five and a fourth and one along the way. They end up second and goal at the one. Montgomery stuff twice and then on fourth Golf forced to throw it away thirteen on nine left in the second quarter, still a seven point game, but after a Chargers three and out, Detroit goes sixty yards Gibbs accounting for thirty three of those in from one on

fourth goal seventeen to three Lions. And all the Lions backers are like yazigil, they're so much better than the Chargers. Eh, slow that down, ensuing drive, just go seventy five yards Herbert to Allen from twenty nine out on a dime, seventeen to ten. Lions. First play, next drive Montgomery for seventy five touchdown twenty four to ten Detroit. Then Chargers ten plays seventy five yards Eckler in on fourth and one from the two, twenty four to seventeen Detroit at

the half, neither defense can stop the other offense. At halftime, it's three zero seven to two ten total yards advantage for Detroit. Herbert had one hundred and seventy nine yards passing third quarter lines bypass a fifty five yard field goal dry they decided to punt. Shouldn't have done that.

Chargers then go ninety two yards Herbert to Jalen Geitten from eighteen out twenty four to twenty four, seven to fifty nine left third quarter, ensuing drives seven play seventy five yard drive for the Lions go off to Saint Brown from thirty three to twenty to the house, concluding that drive thirty one twenty four Detroit four to thirty

one left in the third quarter. Following drive, now without Keenan Allen, who was knocked out on the previous Chargers drive with the shoulder injury, Chargers get a break when officials call a PI on fourth and goal from the one. Suspect then it takes them four more plays to get in on the subsequent fourth and goal from the one Herbert to Johnston, first shout of the year for Quentin Johnson,

thirty one to thirty one, eleven thirty to go. By the way, six total plays for the Chargers from the one. That's how long it took him to get that. In next drive ty ballgame, now thirty one apiece, Detroit seven plays seventy five yards Golf to brock right from twenty five out thirty eight to thirty one halfway through the fourth quarter. Then the Chargers go sixty eight yards. I think you get the idea fourth and one at the Detroit thirty eight Herbert to Allen touchdown. What a pass?

What a play Allen back in the game thirty eight thirty eight, three thirty eight left, Detroit ends up with a fourth and two of the Chargers twenty seven one forty seven to go. This is the moment in the game, your mere mortal coach kicks a field goal. Not Dan Campbell favorite to win Coach of the Year still, although the objects in his rear view mirror are getting larger.

Golf to Laporta for six first down, setting up a Riley Patterson forty one yard walk off forty one thirty eight Detroit Detroit with a bye week before that, Chargers on short rest. Detroit gets done by three Golf twenty three of thirty three for three thirty three, two Downste

Pixie wasn't sacked. Montgomery twelve for one, sixteen in a touchdown, Gibbs fourteen for seventy seven and two touchdowns on the ground, three catches for thirty five Saint Brown eight for one, fifty six in a touchdown, five thirty three to four twenty one advantage in total yards. I will say Detroit by seven and a half if it's Fields ten and a half. If it's a pagent, it is Lions nine and a half. Right now at DraftKings we were going

up to ten places. I had nine a couple hours agoing there, b Sheelsey, if Tyson Bagent will start this fifth straight game. More guessing lines on the other side right here at FISA, it's skill. Alexander Kelly Bidlin live from Mark, Canada here at the d in downtown Las Vegas. Kelly, I am not usually the guy who talks about these

big bets. You know how, there's like a whole cottage industry of people are like, oh, there's this bet made here, and there's bet made here, and oh my god, look everybody, welcome to the action. Rich Floridians. Though, yeah, I had to mention this one because it's only five days into them having betting. But some dude in South Florida won five point five million dollars on a five hundred thousand dollars four leg NFL parlay with the newly reopened Hard

Rock Sports Book. And here he did it. When when Matt Amadola we talked about Houston winning that game on the Amadola Kick. Four legs of his parlay were Texans to beat the Bengals, So Texans on the money line, Texans Bengals to go over forty four and a half, Devin Singletary to score a touchdown, and Singletary to go over fifty one and a half rushing yards. Where's the part about, Oh, Amadola won the game for them, That's why it was the Amadola party. Okay, So that dude.

And now apparently earlier in the week, oh yeah, ye, Apparently earlier in the week, somebody bet one point five four to six million on Kent State. By the way, they have one win this year. I think it was the first day they were officially fully open against but no, that was the second day on Wednesday against Bowling Green. And of course Kent State got trounced forty nine to nineteen. So he lost one point one to two million at Kent State plus plus the points and then four hundred

and twenty six thousand on the money line. I heard he was back the next day. I just want to know this if this is is this the same dude or or South Florida out of their heads? I mean, hey, look it's a lot of what is this going to be South Florida now?

Lions by three at home. Green Bay loses by four on the road to tow the Steelers. It's the four and five Chargers with three and six Packers. Herbert in the loss twenty seven of forty for three to twenty three, four touchdowns, one pick, he was not sacked. Eckler nineteen for sixty seven on the ground and a touchdown, four catches for forty eight, Keenan Allen eleven for one seventy five and two touchdowns, and again five point thirty three

four to twenty one disadvantage in total yards. They gave up five thirty three to the Lions. Green Bay in defeat. Jordan loved twenty one of forty for two to eighty nine, two touchdowns, two picks, and he was sacked once. Those two touchdown passes were beautiful. Gotta give Jordan Love credit where it is due. Yes, the picks stunk at the end, as they typically do, but he was solid for much

of that game. They outgained Pittsburgh three ninety nine to three twenty four, keeping Pittsburgh's getting out gain streak intact for the entire year, but they were minus two in turnovers. We mentioned those two picks at the end. To preserve the win for Pittsburgh, I would say the Chargers minus three on the.

The Steelers at six and three, the Raiders at five and five, the Colts at five and five, and there's one more six and three that's just ridiculous at six and three. Who's like, also fugezy six and three Besides the Steelers, there's another one not Qua Hawks Seahawks six and Three's who's got the record where you're like, I cannot believe this team is that it's got to be the Steelers still right now?

eleven from Vegas at their own twenty four. O'Connell was then picked by Jordan Whitehead. That led to a Zerline thirty yard field goals, So it was nine to three Jets, three field goals to one eleven forty eight eleven the second quarter. Then, after a would be Zach Wilson twenty three yard touchdown run, he apparently stepped out at the three.

He not apparently he did. That was, of course, in Jets fashion, followed by a hold and so yeah, sorry, didn't get anywhere, by the way, the team's traded punts. That was after the team's traded punts. Vegas knocked themselves out of a field goal range with two sacks on the second of those, but a Carlson fifty four yard field goal made it nine to six Jets at that point at halftime. So, by the way, on that Zach Wilson, you know, didn't get the touchdown. Then they were knocked

out with the hole. They didn't get any points on that. So a nine to six Jets at this point in the ball game. Then a trade of punts, an additional Jets punt Carlson forty yard field goal, nine to nine. We're toded. It's riveting. Two thirty six left in the third quarter. The bottom line in this game is every time the Jets and the Raiders got close to a touchdown, it seemed like it was either a sack fester than penalties, and they just couldn't do anything once they had gotten

all the way downfield. Then, after a Jets three and out spurred on by a Jacob's forty yard run O'Connell to Michael Mayer seven, bardon me seven yard touchdown pass sixteen to nine, Las Vegas fourteen ten to go, sir line does get a forty five yard field goal sixteen to twelve, Las Vegas eleven to fifty eight to go. Then the Raiders have fourth Inch's at their own forty four de Andre Carter for fifteen, but three plays later, Josh Jacobs fumbles. Ashton Davis recovers six h six to go.

I guess he recovered it. We'll never know. Looked like Jacobs might have had it on the ground, but there wasn't enough in that pile to overturn. So the Jets start at their own twenty four down four. They get to the Las Vegas twenty one, twenty two to go. What does Zach Wilson do in these situations, Kelly he throws a pick, Robert splane picks. It looks like the Raiders are gonna win it no problem, but Jets have all three timeouts left. They use two of them and

they bat down a pass on third. Raiders were trying to seal it, so they get the ball back. The Jets do with fifty three seconds to go in one time out at their own twenty down four, and the Jets actually get it into hail Mary range and give Zach Wilson at least credit for this. I don't know how he got this ball off and how he was able to get it all the way downfield, but he's running to his left. Max Crosby is chasing him, and Wilson somehow gets the pass downfield and Garrett Wilson, I think,

gets his hand on it. They also had a second receiver who got a hand on it. But it does fall to the ground and the Raiders win. It's sixteen to twelve. But that right there, though, is like the end of that game.

the most ridiculous record at six and three. The Raiders at five and five is pretty damn ridiculous. Also, I didn't even realize there were five and five till you said that, to be honest. But ye that I'm thinking about it, yes, that is more ridiculous than the Steelers big six and three. Still like Cleveland the best of all these so far, assuming Deshaun plays. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I'm with you.

three picks. Now I've got to fill out my fourth and fifth for a contest? Oh yeah, am I gonna make the Dolphins Tayphin. By the way, the Ravens were the team that got me doing that last week this past week here in circum Millions, they were, ah, you know, a random hip to fill out my contest, and that did not work at angles. I had all the good losers all right, A lot more to get to guessing lines week eleven numbers game. Visa these sports betting that

we're well James Hard and La Clippers. Things working out great in it. Kelly it's working out great for betters.

Couldn't see that coming, Clippers Brass Jesse Welch, We get tweets that beating the book Jesse Welch without fail my minus one thousand ticket cashes on Gilly to Railroad through the guessing lines open Indiana Jet and people wonder why companies like DraftKings Fan will spend gobs and gobs of money on lawyers and marketing and lobbyists to get laws passed that would allow them to open up shops Florida and California exactly.

to get legalized. I was just saying, but Florida. I was telling about Flora, Florida friends of mine that you're just like us now, like you're going to be in the Nevada sports betting both like can't wait till you get legalized fully two you actually get other books to shop lines at oh man, some of the things that

just like we just don't have. We we're so beaten into submission on like again, it's like the oh, look, you can bet Grand Slam tennis tournaments for next year to this person will win three, this person to win for It's like, can we just get those Well, stop that big a deal. I know it's tough. It's tough. Let's guess some more lines. What he got next? Early window Giants at Commanders, Oh, the giants at the commodes, all right, come on, come Onde, you gotta win this

football game. The two and eight Giants, the four and six Commodores Giants. Listen. One of my correct picks was Dallas laying the laying the wood on the Giants, and you're never gonna get rich in the NFL laying those kind of points. But this was one of those where the Giants are just it's the Tommy DeVito led giants. They're just so bad. Dallas first tribe didn't start out that way. Though Dallas first drive of the game, they were stopped on fourth and goal with the two when

Pollard only got one. But then the Giants game in four yards on three plays from their one. But then after another Dallas three and out. The Giants, this time Kelly went minus two yards in three plays from their six. Dallas, though they went fifty four yards lamb in from fourteen to seven to nothing Dallas three thirty eight left in the first quarter. But and this was the high point

of the game for the Giants. After a Giants punt last play of the first quarter, Dak picked by Cordale Flott, setting up the Giants first and ten at the Dallas eleven just down seven. Here's your sequence incomplete, almost picked Sakuan for two defeat over six fourth and two at the four. Sakuon stuff for no game thirteen twenty three eleven the secon quarter, and thus began the Cowboys blowout. Dallas then goes ninety six yards on eight plays. Dak to Cooks for twenty five into lamb for thirty. A

lot of cooks and a lot of lamb. They'de you hungry. The big chunks on that drive Dak to Jake Ferguson from one out fourteen to nothing Dallas eight forty eight laps second quarter. Then after another three and out from the Giants, Dallas goes fifty four yards Dak to Cooks from ten out twenty one and nothing Dallas three forty eight left second quarter, Then another Giants three and out eighty five yards on seven plays for Dallas, Dak to

Cooks for combined fifty on the drive. Then a ridiculous throw throw the ball up on the run that lands and lambs hands for seventeen dak ultimately in from ten to out on third and nine, twenty eight to nothing Dallas at the half. Remember they're giving anywhere between sixteen and a half to seventeen and a half depending on where you got this third quarter after the team's trade three and outs. Now, the Giants at this point had

nineteen total yards on their first eight drives. That's not good. Told, that's not good. You know what they do on this drive? They go ninety one yards all on the ground except for the final ten to veto to Lawrence Cage your ten yard touchdown pass twenty eight to seven Dallas, and suddenly the spread is not as comfy as it once was, but then Dallas immediately goes eighty six yards and six

plays Dac to Gallop for forty one. That's the gallop for forty one, thirty five to seven, Dallas, four to forty left third quarter, Dallas would have added another score after drawn. Bland picked a Vito downfield Dak to Cooks for thirty seven and thirty two on them the drive to Lamb for the score twelve yard touchdown pass forty two to seven Dallas. Dallas would eventually win it forty

nine to seventeen. I don't want to gloss over that last part of the game because I know somebody, uh I don't know if he wants me to say his name, but his name rhymes and he's on the megapod. He had the Giants under team total and the Giants show the Giants used all of their timeouts. They were like, we must get this touchdown, and they did, so it goes over the team total. That's a brutal loss for those teams. He plays seventy five yard drive like they

actually put a drive together too. We must get this to thirty two, and they did forty nine to seventeen. DeVito ended up fourteen for twenty seven for eighty six, two touchdowns, one pick. He sacked five times, seven carries for forty one yards. Giants ozho for twelve on third down in this game zero for twelve on third down. They were out gained by Dallas six one hundred and forty to one seventy two. Oh incredible. In the passing yardage they were out gained four seventy two to sixty one.

Also thirty seven to twenty one to twenty two thirty nine a time of possession. Those are your New York Giants. Point.

yards and three plus passing touchdowns. That can't be true. Yeah, it's kind of surprised me when I saw this too. Is that true? We got a fact check that Steve Young had five in a row in nineteen ninety eight, and Mahomes and Peyton Manning each have had streaks of four. That can't be right. I dispute that tweet. I dispute that. By the way, Steve Fesick with with a text on this, Steve Esick said, he said Dak stepped on the sideline going in for a touchdown versus the Eagles last week.

Zach Wilson did it this week, as you just talked about in the game against the Raiders last night. You could argue both of those plays cost those teams the game. Is this really all that difficult? Do these quarterbacks have to put their size thirteen feet one millimeter from the sideline. Wouldn't it be prudent to always give yourself a minimum of six inches away right before you if you leap for the pylon. Steve Zick angry at quarterbacks with large

feet hitting the sidelines on their way into the end. Yeah, yeah, I'll let them. With ste on this with Steve, I was bothered by this last week too. There was a here's where I will give him. There was a Pittsburgh Steelers game, which I think they eventually won because they eventually win games. There had like multiple receivers It wasn't the quarterback, but multiple receivers who kept stepping out bounds like Deontay Johnson, Adam Bounds, Pickens Adam bounds, like, no,

do you know where the sideline is? Do you have any anyway? Back to this game? Giants at Washington, Washington yesterday against Seattle Kelly. This didn't work out well for Kelly. No fourth play from scrimmage, Howell add libbing to Brian Robbinson fifty one to the house, mostly Yack, Sly jinks the pat six to nothing, Washington one thirty four in three Myers field goals versus one Sly field goal along the way. It was nine to nine at the half,

nine to nine. Third quarter after Seattle punt Sly forty seven yard field goal, twelve to nine, Washington ten thirty two left third quarter and suing drive two plays seventy five for Seattle, Gino to Walker for sixty four mostly Yack, sixteen to twelve, Seahawks nine to forty three left third quarter.

Then second play in suing drive, Howell runs for fifteen yards in a first down, but he's tackled by Witherspoony fumbles is recovered by Reek wooland Seattle cannot capitalize, though, so after another Skins punt, sly forty five yard field goal makes it nineteen. Excuse me, nut. Sly Myers forty five yard field goal makes it nineteen to twelve Seattle twelve four teen to go. Washington then goes seventy three yards on eight plays. Howell to Gibson from nineteen out.

We're tied at nineteen eight minutes to go. Kelly's feeling uh, feeling like uh, he needs a touchdown, and he gets one. Seattle ends up with fourth and five at the Washington thirty nine with four to forty one to go. Incomplete well over metcalps reach, PI called on Benjamin Saint just apparently the reps are like, yeah, he could have caught that if he's fifteen feet tall. Why is that even

on the books. If we're not gonna call him. Leads to a Gino to Locke at five yard touchdown pass four plays later, twenty six to nineteen Seattle three forty seven a go Kelly Biddlin feeling good. But then Washington fourth and one at the saddle forty three won twenty eight to go. Howell to McLaurin for eight, three blazes later Diami Brown for thirty five touchdown twenty six twenty six, fifty two seconds to go, and as with every single game in this league, this Sunday, that was way too

much time. Seattle goes fifty yards and six plays using their two remaining timeouts, Myers walk off forty three yard field well again, one of five walk off field goals in the National FOOTBA leagu Yesterday, twenty nine to twenty six Seattle. They went at howl twenty nine to forty four for three twelve, three touchdowns, no picks, sack three times, two carries for seventeen yards, and that fumble lost. He's good man. They just need to give him a line.

Give that man an offensive line. They'll do it this offseason. Brian Robinson eight for thirty eight, six catches for one nineteen into touchdown, but Washington gave up four hundred and eighty nine total yards to the Seahawks. That said Giants at Washington. Washington's got to get this done. I split the difference between seven and ten, made it eight and a half.

It's one of those idiots who believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone in our number two, but Numbers gave it. Visa, the sports betting network Visa dot Com, Visa app, game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However, you take it us in, We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, It's Kelly Bindlin. Still guessing lines for week eleven so far like the Browns looking for more. Uh, you said Friday night, Kelly off air, it was a

vsent significant other night. You met a lot of Vson significant others. Yeah, you did not mean mine, No, I didn't. We were at a random a random current of so many people at Circa that I ran into Arlesburg. Yeah, we went to the Tony Tony Tony Show on Friday night. How was it? You were looking forward to it for like three months? One of the top ten concerts of my life. That's great at the Palms. Here's the thing about Tony Tony Tony. This is just a brief aside

before we get back to guessing lines. They are nineties R and B. They take you back to that time in your life when you were young and beautiful and you could rule the world, and they were they were not derivative of anything else that they were their own sound and they are spectacularly. It was just fantastic. There you go, Tony Tony. Tony has done it again. Just uh one uh one stop here in Vegas. One one

show one showing out, one showing out. Yeah, a couple in the Bay, couple in Oakland next week for those who are interested, back in their hometown of Oakland. All right, what's next? Early Windows? Still on Sunday, Cowboys at Panthers six to three, Cowboys one in eight Panther. Panthers are the last team with one win, right, that's it? Yeah? I think so everybody else got it, got at least two. Dallas is six and three off that win over the Giants. Dack ended up, by the way, twenty six of thirty

five for four h four, four touchdowns, one pick. He was not sacked, two carries for seventeen yards in that touchdown. Cooks nine for one seventy three in a touchdown. Is that the best game of his career? Sure feels like it. Lamb eleven for one fifty one in a touchdown. He also had one carry for fourteen yards that was a touchdown. They held the Giants, as we said to oh for twelve on third zero for twelve on third downs. They outgained the Giants six forty to one. Seventy two for

seventy two to sixty one in the passing game. And then there's Carolina who, uh you know, will have the extra rest here since that Thursday night lost to the Bears. I mean, the Cowboys are the ultimate bully, right, I say minus ten on the road here, Uh, you are low lights? Yeah, my friend, I would imagine this did open up in that area. We are eleven. We're to eleven most places now there are some ten and a halves out there. Yeah, I mean I happily laid the

sixteen and a half. I don't know that I would lay it here. I can't do that twice in a row. Well.

that's what I'm going with. I agree, Yeah, all right, what's next? The Titans at the Jaguars, three and six Titans six and three jag Wires, or as normal people say at Jaguars. Tennessee loses the Tampa Bay. This is the game I wanted no part of. Tennessee let it three to nothing in a game that had featured a bad Mayfield pick early and then Nick Folks first missed field well of the season. Then Tampa Bay with a six play eighty five years Our drive took three minutes

and nine seconds. Mayfield on a screen to Rashod White from forty three out touchdown seven to three, Tampa Bay five point thirty nine left in the second quarter. That would be the score at the half. Second half opening drive McLoughlin twenty five yard field goal. That was after Evans dropped a sure touchdown two plays earlier, ten to three Tampa Bay. You were like that could come back

and haunt these Buccaneers. Evans with a straight drop, but after a Tennessee BoNT Tampa Bay go's eighty yards all but eight yards through the air Mayfield to Evans for twenty two. He makes up for it seventeen to three Tampa Bay two forty six left third quarter and then Kelly next drive. Tennessee ends up with a fourth and goal at the nine. They're down fourteen twelve, fifty seven to go, and Mike Rabel says, hey, Nick Folk, you get out there and you kick that twenty seven yard

field goal. You kick it good. And he did, and he turned a seventeen to three game into a seventeen to six game. Because what do you do, Gil, Because when you have a chance to cut a two score lead to a two score lead, you do it. You do it. Every time mcglougham would screaming, McLaughlin would answer with a thirty five yard if you're able to make it twenty to six, which made it even more ridiculous.

And that's how it would end up, uh with the Tennessee's last drives ending in the Levis pick and two turnovers on downs. Lewis nineteen of thirty nine for one to ninety nine, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked four times. Henry eleven for twenty four that's always the barometer for Titans games. Eleven carries twenty four yards and Tennessee was out gaining three forty to two oh nine.

Tennessee's is one of these teams. Tennessee and Tampa both like the reason this was the game I wanted no part of it is because any outcome would no outcome would have surprised me. Yeah, I played the over on the thirty eight.

that's not gonna come back and haunt him at any point. Yeah, he's got a little gun slinger in him. Sometimes it comes out. Then, uh yeah, seven and nothing. San Francisco eleven thirty four left first quarter. Then after another Jacksonville three and out that ends in a sack of Lawrence Moody thirty nine yard field will tend to nothing after

a trade of punch. Jacksonville drive ends on a Nick Bosa Chase Young half sack half sack of Lawrence he fumbles, Bosa recovers, doesn't lead to anything, though team's trade field goals before halftime thirteen to three Niners into the half, so the Niners are dominating this game, but they only lead thirteen to three. Then in the second half, the blowout begins. Second play from scrimmage Purty to Kittle for sixty six twenty to three San Francisco fifty seconds in

to the half. Niners would make it twenty seven to three on a debo twenty three yard touchdown run that after Lawrence was picked by Talanoa Hufanga to end one drive, and a second would end on a Christian Kirk fumble hit by ambry Thomas, which was an interesting moment in the game because ambry Thomas appeared to recover it. He did recover it, but then he appeared to ticket to the house when no whistle blew, but the Niners whole

team was on the field, nullifying it. It took Fox forever to show the angle of the entire field, of the entire team on the field, so for like ninety seconds, which is an eternity. The announcers and the viewers are like, what the heck happened? Lives out of the air, and I'm like, what's taking so long? And then they showed that replay and we're like, well, half the teams on the field, but it took them forever to give us that angle. It's like, oh that, why couldn't you shown

us that long time ago? No matter. Lawrence would then get picked by Fred Warner on a fourth and fifteen as he was getting hit on the pass that that led to a by the way, the Niners scored on that same drive where Ambry Thomas recovered that fumble. Lawrence would then get picked by Fred Warner on a fourth and fifteen as he was getting hit on the pass led to a three play forty yard drive Purty to use check from twenty two out thirty four to three nine ers, and then the Niners would later how can

I put this cheesily? Is cheesily a word? Sure? They would later cheesily try to force feed McCaffrey a touchdown to keep his touchdownstrak Alive that was unsuccessful. Thirty four to three would be the final. Trevor Lawrence seventeen of twenty nine for one to eighty five, no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked five times, two carries for seven yards. He did lose the fumble Christian Kirk six for one

oh four and a fumble lost himself. Bottom line, Jacksonville against this Niners defense twelve first downs total, they were out gained four thirty seven to two twenty one, and most importantly, they were minus four in turnovers, which led directly to a plus fourteen net San Francisco points. Niners just destroyed them. We had a tweet last week for forgive me to the gentleman or that tweeted it in

but I agreed with it at the time. I think it was on Friday where he said, do the Niners remind you and we'll get to the Niners, but do the Niners remind you of that Rams team that won the Super Bowl where they kind of had this lull in the middle of the regular season. It took I'll paraphrase, it took the ccent off of them for everybody, and then they just destroyed everybody the rest of the year.

And I said, you know what, the Niners do, remind me of that three game losing streak, and here they come. They were my number one power rated team still heading into this week. They prove it with this. They go into Jacksonville and they just crushed them, the Niners with extra rest here thirty four to three. But this is Tennessee at Jacksonville, right, So I'll say Jacksonville minus seven. It is six and a half basically painted everywhere. My

only bet in my account so far is Jacksonville. Oh you bet, this edit already laid to six and a half.

Is that more of a back Jacksonville or a fate of Tennis Welle a little bit of both expected Jaguars bounce back here, and then yeah, I think what we saw out e Leves this past week, and now you start looking back at what he's kind of done in the past the first couple games, you know, I think that that new quarterback shines worn off a little bit with him, and yeah, I think this jack Jacksonville deep.

This is just just such a difference in right, and I think which leads me to the further just on the Niners, quick where it's the Doesn't it feel like every week that goes by, we are getting like fewer. It feels like there are fewer and fewer teams that actually can or will win. The Zuits exactly what I was gonna ask you after this, the way that Seattle's playing. Let let's talk about like our bottom of our top ten, the way the Jacksonville's of the world played yesterday. Seattle

just over the course of a few weeks. Now Detroit struggling to beat the Chargers.

So and they can't be included in that. San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, as you mentioned, Cincinnat's another one that looked Tar Baltimore and well, I'll still include Baltimore. That tough group still will do that more. Come next It'skal Alexander, It's Kelly Bilin. We get tweets at meeting the book. Always appreciate the feedback on the show. This is from Tony Farmer Tony's Tony's Market Tips. He says,

I like your breakdown of the Bengals Texans game. I don't think Demiko Ryans gets enough credit for the timeouts he called at the end of the fourth quarter to make sure there was enough time. I don't think Kyle Shanahan or many others call those timeouts. What Tony's referring to is Demiko Ryans calling timeouts when the Bengals had that last sequence on offense, which resulted in a game tying field goal should have been a go ahead touchdown to Boyd, which he dropped. I will take issue with

one thing. I think other coaches would have called those timeouts, smart coaches. I think Kyle Shanahan would have called those timeouts. But it does bring up the broader question of I mentioned earlier MVP market. Either the guys at the top of that market didn't play well. Yesterday, Lamar Burrow, who we were talking about as a bubbling under guy, he didn't play well, whereas others were just idle right, Hurts hasn't didn't play, and Mahomes didn't play. Rookie of the

Year is already a done deal with CJ. Stroud. Coach of the year is the real fascinating market still because you have Dan Campbell as the short shot at DraftKings. Dan Campbell is currently at plus one fifty Demico Ryans the aforementioned is three to one, Mike McDaniels six to one, and Kevin O'Connell plus seven to fifty. By the way, Mike Tomlin remains at twelve to one. So that market is still the most fascinating. If you were telling me right now, Gil, who do you think the coach of

the year? Is you asking me right now? Who do I think legitimately's coach of the year right at this moment? I would say Tomiko Ryans. But Houston still has to get to the playoffs I think for that to manifest too, unless the Lions go fifteen and two or something like that and then you know, get a number one seed. I mean, there's so many different paths for all of

these guys. Dolphins have a path to that, for McDaniel, Tomlin has a path certainly certainly the Vikings, and Kevin O'Connell as a path which we'll get to here momentarily, also tweeting, let me not stop at that one. This is also from at Beating the book. I I want to go through all these here, Chris Heath, el Crito's own Tony Tony Tony, Yes, el Cerrito's own. Gilly Iice Butcher's my nickname, says Patriots fan over here, Gil, How glad are you not to have to review the Patriots

Colts game? I mean, brutal game to watch. Yeah, we as opposed to last week, which is the Dolphins and the Chiefs. It's like, all right, Germany, you like that one. Here are the Patriots and cults. I can't believe the Cults are five and five. The Colts are set up kind of nice too. The rest of the way here they're super excited. But yeah, the main upshot of that game was is it is it over for mac Jones?

And what are the Patriots gonna do into Well, the Patriots are the one team that would draft a quarterback. A lot of these other teams, Like you wonder the Bear is gonna draft a quarterback? Are we one hundred percent sure they are with one of their two picks of the top. And we'll get to Arizona, which clearly they're not tanking. What the heck are they doing? I mean, I don't know. And then there's the Giants. What are

they gonna do? They gonna draft a quarterback? I don't know. Yeah, I don't know on all three, right, Yeah, I mean the Bears, I think you're just there's so much the draft capital they already have and what they could potentially turn that into, Like, there's so many different things they can do. They get to enjoy all off season figuring that out. Phil Weiss, you know, Gil, I don't remember you all screaming that Carolina should have taken Stroud. I'm

gonna have to check the tapes. I'll get back to you when I finished my research. Lol. That's great, Mike Stacks. With so many Bengals lost in Survivor and all the Cowboys us yesterday, Thanksgiving will have way less Cowboys used than original thought. Should be an interesting Turkey Day for Circus Survivor and Michael Burns. The hot hand is on air right now, Young Gills, stay hot, baby, Thank you very much, appreciate that. Let's do some games. What do

we got? We have the Cardinals at Texans last early window game. Cardinals beat the Falcons. They're two and eight against the aforementioned Texans, who are five and four Arizona. Yesterday's three to nothing Arizona after a Praterer fifty one yard field goal, Atlanta goes seventy five yards Heineke to Scotty Miller from two, seven to three Atlanta thirteen twenty seven left second quarter, seven to six Atlanta after a Prater forty six yard fieldal Atlanta goes seventy five again.

Bijon in from five fourteen to six Atlanta four oh seven left second quarter, but then Arizona goes seventy five yards Kyler in from six out fourteen to twelve, two point attempt fail Kyler intended for Connor. That's the halftime score, fourteen to twelve Atlanta. Heineke at the half five of nine for thirty. Let me repeat that, five of nine for thirty. Murray in his return eleven for eighteen for one forty three two carries for thirteen yards in a touchdown.

Third quarter after an Atlanta three and out per fifty six yard field goal, and Arizona has their lead, their first lead, aren't actually second lead fifteen to fourteen. Then, after another Atlanta three and out, Murray picked by Nate Landman on first and ten from their own twenty five, Falcons can't get a first down, though they settle for a coup thirty six yard field goal. They go up

again seventeen to fifteen, five eighteen left. Third quarter, teams trade three and outs, but Greg Dortch returns the Bradley Pinion punt forty nine yards, setting up Arizona at the Atlanta twenty one. Three plays later, Clayton tuned in from one, they put him in at the one, twenty two to seventeen Arizona. Heidike hurt though on the next drive for Atlanta, so Ritter's back in the game, and that ends with Ritter failing to convert on a fourth and one at

the Arizona twenty one with eight ZHO one to go. Then, after an Arizona punt, Atlanta, though down five, goes seventy four yards, including an unbelievable drake London catch where he tipped the ball to himself. Ritterer in from nine twenty three to twenty two Falcons two point conversion fails, though Ritter intended for London two thirty three to go. Arizona down a point, gets to a third and ten at their own forty two, one fifty to go. Did you

see this Kyler Murray scramble? Oh? Yeah, it ends up being a thirteen yard first down scramble. He probably he probably went fifty yards on the play least. Yeah. Can we say vintage Kyler Murray? Is that allowed? Close to it? Vintage? Then two plays later Murray to Trey McBride for thirty three forty seven seconds left. That sets up a praterer game winning twenty three yard or Arizona twenty five, Atlanta twenty three. Kyler Murray nineteen for thirty two for two

forty nine in his return, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice, six carries for thirty three yards in the touchdown McBride eight for one thirty one. They did have eleven penalties for one hundred twelve yards. They overcame it. They held Atlanta to two hundred and fifty four total yards. They ain't taking Kelly Binlin. They ain't taking.

eighty for Cincinnati. Five total turnovers in that ballgame. Houston had three of them, but only one led directly to points. That last Cincinnati touchdown. Houston gets the win. And as we said earlier, yes, the MVP numbers in the betting markets for Stroud have come crashing down from about one hundred to one to thirty to one. But we're stupid human brains and we're only going to give him rook of the year, even though his resume lines up beautifully

with all the others. I put Houston in no man's land. Five and a half at home. Yeah, I think that's where it opened. Most spots, either five to five and a half has come down a little bit. Four and a half basically painted everywhere now. So yeah, it was five earlier at DraftKings down to four and a half kernel and that's why keep coming down. I'll bet you Texans if he keeps coming down.

this is the week before Thanksgiving. Houston Jacksonville or Cleveland. What do you like best? This is assuming you don't have any of the If you don't have Dallas left, you don't have Detroit left. Yeah, if you're left with those three tapes, I guess it's easy for me because I already said I bet them Jacks. It would be Jacks interesting, followed by the followed by the Browns because.

McCaffrey sixteen for ninety five on the ground six catches for forty seven, filling up the box score Kittle three for one sixteen. They held Jacksonville to twelve first downs, they outgained him four thirty seven to two twenty one, and they were plus four in turnovers, led directly to plus fourteen net San Francisco points. Tampa Bay at San Francisco, San Francisco by ten and a hook, ten point five, ten and a half here things, that's what it is,

ten and a half or eleven everywhere? Ah, yes, what did I tell you before the show? Tampa Bay was six and three ats? Yeah, you said out there you could you could guess what Tampa Bay's ATS record. I never follow anything. Those six and three Well, I mean that's just random to me, it is. They're a random team in San Francisco. I ten and a half nailed that one. All right? Still so far, like Cleveland, still search up for more than just one game? How many more do we have to get to here? I don't

imagine I am five four or five more? All right? Four four four more? All right, we'll do the two afternoon games and the two primetime games still to come. Guessing lines Week eleven on a numbers game and visa these sports betting network, Kail Alexander, It's Kelly Bitlin. We get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate it once again. I say that, but I mean it. Jamie Lava at

Jamie Lava twenty three. Coming from a family of a dad named Tony and a brother named Anthony, I feel like my parents dropped the ball when they named me Jamie. Just lazy, nineties are and b's the best? Glad you had fun? What was your Tony, Tony, Tony Tony? What was your He was the ten medows I'm start You got to see that movie. That movie cracks me right. What's the bit that he was the fourth tone? Oh? Yeah, he was the fourth because he's the manager of the guy.

seven yard lead over C. J. Stroud. But again no buy yet, so he will have one week if you have, if you have a Howel ticket, you will just have to have one week where you just swallow hard and hope that people don't soar by him. Am I crazy or resis? Still it's like half the league or more that still hasn't had to buy yet, a lot of buys still to come, you could tell on guest kind. Yeah, we're in week eleven already and this is at plus

underscore money, he said, I shouted on. I don't know what he made a typo here, but basically he has a Shane Stiken Coach of the Year ticket at thirty five to one. Now Shane Steken is twenty five to one. He says, great value if they get a wild card spot. You know, it's interesting that you bring up Shane Steiken because you're right. Without Anthony richardson one and without Jonathan Taylor right for most of this season, you could argue, Wow,

this is amazing. They're five and five and by the way, from here to the end of the year. Like, you're right, they could get a wild card spot. Is that enough to overcome the Dan Campbell narrative, the Mike Tomlin narrative, the Demico Ryan's narrative, the Kevin O'Connell narrative. I mean, there's a lot of great choices this year, and Shane Styken is among them. You're right, probably we should probably mention him in the in the in the same conversation.

I just don't think he gets there me either. I hear you. I agree with everything you say. Yep. I think getting this one home is a lot more difficult than getting some of those other ones.

now that it's becoming even closer to reality. Right, And remember with the Dan Campbell everybody's like, well, Dan Campbell's the favorite and of the Lions get the number one seed. But Nick Sirianni finished fifth last year with the Eagles fifth.

Bills get it done. Time to talk. If that happens, I'll say Bill's minus seven here again, sight unseen.

getting beat. I brought up earlier, how like we talked about, Okay, the number of teams that can actually win a Super Bowl is maybe as crystallized as it's ever been this year where I think there's four teams, But I do think the Bills are the wild card fifth because all it would take is one Like if the Bills come out tonight and they win forty five to seven, you will instantly toggle back to the Bills are just this good at times, but if they struggle again, it will

have been what a month and a half where they haven't played good football.

are three and six. GINO yesterday and beating Washington thirty one for forty seven for three sixty nine, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked once. Walker nineteen for sixty three on the ground, one catch for sixty four in the touch which we talked about. Metcalf seven for ninety eight,

seven catches for ninety eight yards. Locket eight catches for ninety two in a touch, four hundred and eighty nine total yards for the Seahawks at the Rams, who were idle in a season where again, by the way, all this you me and Matt used to talk about this on Primetime Action, and I think I talked about in a numbers game, which is after the Rams won the Super Bowl. It's like, Matt Stafford, you have all these injuries, what do you have left to prove? You won a

Super Bowl? You're a borderline Hall of Famer. You're probably stats, believe it or not, probably puts him in the Hall of Fame. I know that's crazy, but he compiled so many, you know, amassed great stats in Detroit. Then he went to Super Bowls, Like, what do you have left to prove? He's getting that kind of buzz. Now are you hearing that? People are like are you retiring? Like why are you doing you know this sort of thing, and he's like, no,

I want to keep playing. So I don't know if he's going to play in this game or got so much respect for it, because I would never I would be tapped out. I'm like, all right, cool, I'm retired. He's he's all about it. He wants to keep playing. Good for him. I think if he plays, it's Seattle. I split the difference between to pick him in the three, I said, Seattle minus one and a half. But I hate this game. I would never touch this game. Yeah,

right now, we're Seattle two and a half. There is a three where it's three at draftings right now, but juiced to the Rams side, it is mainly two and a halves out there, mainly two and a half. That might be the answer to the question of a game I want no part of because I could. I could Rams show it up for this game. Seattle is completely a fraud.

very sexy anymore at three to one. It's not, but yeah, it's still the bet I would make. I think. I think you're right. This is a time.

football on Mondays with guessing lines. But we'll get to this with the Heisman Trophy award tomorrow, which is the Heisman Trophy market, I mean, which is if you do blind resume between bow Nix, Michael Pennix and Jayden dani Yes, like it's it's just the three losses that make you

not like the So that's the thing. So the the MVP voters are all the Aaron shots of the world, like the NFL voters tend to be more analytical and more analytical and more analytics driven as time goes on, almost to the point where they're too close to the sun on that they're two in the weeds with analytics. The Heisman is the exact opposite, where you think it's more of a brain dead populace and they're like, well,

let's us lost three times, so he's out. I wonder if that will apply to Coach of the Year, where you just have to have some kind of tie breaker.

we get texts, we get tweets. Michael Montisano, who won the Booby Prize at Circle the first year, he agrees with me about the whole Jade and Daniels thing, which we'll talk about tomorrow, which is I mentioned just because they have three losses. Those the Heisman voters. Again, this gets back to our original segment where it's like human beings are dumb. They're just gonna not give him the Heisman because LSU has three losses and he says to me, goes.

C J. Stroud was the favorite this two years ago. C J. Stroud was a favorite for the Heisman. I believe minus two hundred before the Michigan game that year. His defense sucked and he was awesome in the game. He lost the Heisman because of it. Bryce Young had that incredible drive to beat Auburn got to the SEC Championship game. I remember because I had Stroud forty to one.

This in relation to Daniel's winning. That's all. Yeah, Paul, it takes sometimes these so like I'm gonna rush and make like I didn't make that bet yesterday, but I'm gonna make that bet today, and it's probably just throwing money into into the fire. Jayden Daniels, Yeah, yeah right. You can't.

opening statement from Kelly? I'm sorry? Or am I crazy? He says both of those A lot. I'm sorry is the best one from your called what call take? I'm sorry? Oh khi Leonard of that Clipper teams to struggling right now, still chance for Chris Singleton to overcome him, Alan Mitchell

was Jim Brown. I'll talk about c J. Stroud, how I said he's gonna win Rookie of the Year, but they're just not going to give him m VP no matter what his stats are, Alan Mitchell said, was Jim Brown the only player to win Rookie of the Year at m VP the same year? Thanks, yes, Allan. As a matter of fact, he was nineteen hundred and fifty seven and the first year it was the first year

they did did awards, right, Oh? Is that right? I believes So if you're if you're if you betting c J. Stroud to win MVP, you're bucking sixty six years of that not happening. By the way, real quick, since we're talking trivia, can you name the only two baseball players to win both Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season, Barry Bond No, no, fred linn and Ichiro Oh and you name the only two in the NBA to win Rookie of the Year in MVP same

year oof? No? I can't. Obviously, it would be the same year Wilt Chamberlain and West unzlt okay late great West on sale. I mean, like Will, it's the obvious answer to just anything. And this might be this might be the greatest give me a trivia, who's the only player, Will Chamberlain? This might be the uh, this might be the greatest tweet we've ever gotten. Mike Boreal gil My twenty twenty four Survivor season ended with Cincy and Baltimore. I feel like my wife just left me with my

best friend, and boy do I miss him? That's great? Oh man, and oh damn, sorry, this is very nice. Diego, Gway Tech and Diego. Did anyone ever tell you that you have a smooth nighttime DJ voice? Oh no, No one's ever told me that such a great future, that such a great reprieve from the blaring commercial breaks. Love this show. Thank you. There was a time, Diego where I lived that life. All right? We got two primetime games to get to. Can we find more value? Please?

Sunday Night Football, The Viking at Broncos, the six and four Minnesota Vikings at the three and five Broncos. Who again in the side unseen. They haven't played. They played a night Minnesota against the Saints. This is another one that guessing lines just again couldn't have been a better exercise for us, because I did the whole thing about I just feel like Dobbs is better than car and

the rest of the market sees it differently. Three to three games, second quarter, Minnesota goes seventy five yards, including an amazing Dobbs to Hawkinson twenty four yard pass and catch on a Dobbs scramble on third and five at the New Orleans twenty eight. Two plays later, Ty Chandler

in from two ten to three Minnesota. After New Orleans three and out, Minnesota goes eighty two yards Dobbs to Addison from twenty nine and to Hackinson for twenty one on the drive third and six of the New Orleans seven, a tremendous Dobbs scramble and run to Peter seventeen to three Minnesota three twenty four left. Second quarter, He's amazing man.

After another New Orleans three and ount, Minnesota starts at their own twenty four with one forty seven left, goes seventy six yards no problem, Dobbs to Hockinson, his fifth catch of the drive, tenth of the half from twenty eight out twenty four to three Vikings halftime. At halftime, Carl was nine to fourteen for sixty three. Dobbs eighteen of twenty two for two to twenty in a touch,

Six carries for forty yards and a touchdown. How many people do you think thought I was crazy when I said that I thought Dobbs was so much better than Carl last week. They're like, what are you talking about? At least ninety percent I would say, so, well, there you go. Third quarter, twenty seven to three Minnesota. Now Car and medical tent had a shoulder injury and concussion protocol at that point. After getting high load on a completion to a lave, then two plays later Kamera converts

a fourth in inches. Next play, jamis your boys in what up? To a lave for twenty then to a lave in the corner of the end zone. Beautiful pass by Jamis from fourteen out two point conversion from Kamara good twenty seven to eleven Minnesota. New Orleans knows math. They know that twenty four is divisible by eight three times twenty six. Left the third quarter after trade of punts had a miss Joseph fifty four yarder. New Orleans goes fifty six yards, including a fourth and two conversion.

James to a lobby for twenty six. Jamis that is, to a lobby for twenty six. Then three plays later, on third and eight at the Minnesota fifteen, Jamis to at Perry for fifteen across the field, he rests the ball away from Byron Murphy Junior, touchdown Saints Kamara in on the two point conversion twenty seven to nineteen, Minnesota eleven forty to go. Then, after a trade of punts in another Minnesota punt, New Orleans third and three at

their own forty four with three thirteen to go. Remember they're only down one score, Jamis picked by Mackay Blackman, but they would force a Minnesota three and out. The Saints would they get it back with two oh seven to go, down eight, but first and ten at their own forty six, one fifty six to go, Jamis picked deep by Byron Murphy Junior. They would have to survive a hail Mary on the game's final play after another three and out, but that would be the ball game.

Minnesota twenty seven, New Orleans nineteen dops twenty three of thirty four for two sixty eight, one touchdown, no picks. He was sacked once. Eight catches for forty four yards. Excuse me, eight carries rather for forty four yards and a touchdown. Hockinson ends up eleven for one thirty four in a touch Minnesota held New orleanso two hundred eighty yards. They were plus two in turnovers those late two Jamis picks to preserve the win. Minnesota at Denver again, Denver

places tonight. I will say Minnesota minus three on the road by a field goal. Think you found some value because we're Broncos to one and a half or two in this game. Give me the Vikings, wrong team favorite this is. We're gonna do this every week with the Vikings. No one's gonna give Dobbs his respect.

they were the Commanders, they were called something else. Kelly and I watched every step of Kirk cousins career. Kirk Cousins is a great front runner. He's, by the way, Cousins was having a great year too. But Cousins is plagued by late game poor decision making, which was which has been Derek Carr's bugaboo for his entire career. Joshua Wao Dobs is the exact opposite of this. He is always making the play and people refuse to accept it.

And you know what, keep refusing, keep refusing. This guy's good, dude. I'm not saying he's not a good I think I think Kirk Cousins gives this team a much better chance of winning. I would disagree with you wholeheart, a much better chance of winning. Have you watched football? Yes, with Kirk Cousins, I don't know much better might be. It might be a stretch, but you either give him a better show. Okay, that's just agreement. You're allowed to say better.

That's that's a distance zone because you just can't say much. I have a lot of respect for Dobbs, so I don't want to disrespect my saying much better.

Eagles seven and two Chiefs, Chiefs minus three. Neither team this is two and a half. Oh no, it is up to three. It is.