The numbers told the story they always done. It's one of those idiots who believe in the analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander, gone Vison.
Good Monday morning to you.
It is the numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course the DraftKings Network. It's Gill Alexander, It's Kelly Midlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer guessing lines. Week ten in the National Football League, and of course in the process I look back at all things week number nine.
How you doing man? Good? I'm doing great. How are you?
Good week? Good week in the NFL. Another good contest week. If only I hadn't had that and five, then I'd be doing something that's yea got overcome?
Yeah you what was that week five? That it was week five because it was the first week of that of that second quarter, you went over five. I went one at four. Yeah, I gotta buried us. I went two and three yesterday four and one for me.
We're we're both now at tick below sixty percent, so we're not allowed to talk about our entries. We're talking under sixty percent. But this show, the guessing lines process has been money. It has been really good week after week. Now where what halfway through the NFL season in terms of the number of weeks nine in the books, nine to go? So could things turn for the worse? Oh, there's plenty of time for that, so we want to remain humble about it all. But it has been a
great profitable exercise thus far. And for those who are just new to it, I'm in a cocoon. I don't know the lines for the upcoming week in the NFL. I guess a line. Kelly then informs us what the actual line is, and in that exercise we try to extract value from all of this, and so far, so good this year. First, a Survivor update before we get into week number ten and all the shenanigans of week
number nine, and there were some shenanigans. Sixty three entries eliminated this week in Circus Survivor Kelly sixty three, so eleven hundred and thirty eight remain. Eleven hundred and thirty eight remain in Circa Survivor. By the way, four of those were no picks. Still four non submissions in circa survivor into November. Boy, I hope the people responsible for those entries are okay. I hope everything's okay with them, because otherwise you can't imagine why those why that didn't happen.
For that, I know, Yeah, I think you've said that first, like last year or something.
I was that we don't know. I was like, you're right, I have no idea we kill these people. We have no idea what's happening in their lives. But eleven hundred and thirty eight remain out of the original nine thy two hundred and sixty seven. You know what that means? Eight the intrinsic value, the intrinsic value of each remaining entry eight thousand, one hundred and forty three dollars and twenty three cents. Now again, eleven hundred and thirty eight
entries left means this thing hasn't even started yet. In essence, last year, at this time, one hundred and fifteen out of six and one hundred and thirty three were left. That was carnage last year. In the first seven weeks, it was one twenty five. After seven weeks, one fifteen left last week, but one one hundred and thirty eight entries left pending tonight's game, where I don't believe there's
a pick in tonight's game. Yeah, there are Chargers, have ten on the Chargers tonight, so perhaps more eliminated tonight.
But this is a uh, this is a.
Slow grind and survivor for those still alive. Sadly, Kelly, you and I are not. And well, had that Washington Chicago game gone differently, I'd still be alive. And I'm really rooting for a second loss, so I can just say, oh, i'd been out of it anyway. But everything, All the big ones got home. The Falcons were the biggest killer for teams for entries, folks who had entries yesterday, only thirty nine on the Falcons though, the big ones obviously the Browns and the Saints, which both got home.
Next one up? What Patriots with four? When I forgot to cross that one off? They did lose?
Yeah, eleven hundred and thirty nine left, thirty eight left. Pardon me, eleven hundred and thirty eight. Good luck to those remaining. Shall we begin with Thursday night football?
And will uh? Let's do it. Let's wait for the marquee. Let's wait let's wait for the beautiful. The beautiful for guessing lines. Everybody get.
You'd think after all these years, I remember that there was a guessing lines intro.
Hey, we found a couple we liked last week. I wish it was the only thing I bet this past week. It added bet the Bengals. The Bengals is what we like the best. Last We loved that last week. That was great. Worked love the Lions a week before that was really nice. All right, Thursday night, get ready? Panthers at the Bears. This is Thursday night football games. I feel like this is the worst primetime trio of games I've seen in a long time.
If you had to come up with a matchup for Thursday night football, could you come.
Up with one worse than this? This is? This is horribing, great question, Carol.
The one in seven Panthers at the two and seven Bears. The Panthers yesterday, we'll pick it up. They were down three to nothing to Indianapols. Second quarter, Colts went sixty four yards Minshew to tailor from ten. I was ten to nothing Colts then at thirteen to three in favor of the Colts. Carolina is matriculating first and ten at the Indianapolis forty nine, and Bryce Young telegraphs a pass picked by Kenny Moore of the second forty nine yards
of the house, pick six, twenty to three. The Colts would lead it at the half. By the way, that was one of those pick sixes where the second it left, the millisecond that it left Bryce Young's hand, you as a viewer, were like, oh.
No, of course, to the house it goes.
Third quarter after Indianapol's punk, Carolina does go eighty two yards, including converting a fourth and one at the Indianapoles twenty one with six oh six left in the third, Bryce to Tremble for eleven. Three plays later, Bryce to Chark from five out touchdown twenty to ten in favor of the Colts. But even that drive took forever to get downfield. You had no confidence in the Carolina offense. But then
Indianapolis punted again. The Colts punted again, so you're like, okay, well, Caroline is down ten, could this be a Carolina two and a half point dogs? In that game, they get a third and eleven from Bryce to Hurst Hayden Hurst for forty eight, and you're like, wow, they got out of a gym. They got out of jail. There they're like pass midfield. But two plays later, Bryce Way overthrows his intended receiver and guess who's on the other end
of that pass. Kenny Moore the second, this time sixty six yards to the house, his second pick six of the game, twenty seven to ten Indianapolis just a minute and twenty seconds into the fourth quarter. Colts would win it twenty seven to thirteen, but not till Bryce threw another pick, and that one wasn't pretty either. Bryce twenty four of thirty nine for one seventy three, one touchdown, three picks, sacked four times, five carries for forty one
They outgained Indianapolis. Carolina did two seventy five to one ninety eight, but ten Ben at least for eighty one yards and minus two and turnovers that led directly to plus fourteen Indianapolis points. And I mean directly on the two pick six. Is that's your margin of victory period twenty seven to thirteen Colts and Bryce Young has I hate to say it because I love the kid, but everything that we say at the NFL draft, how are they not drafting, how are the Panthers not drafting CJ's drought.
How are they drafting Bryce Young? We lost all our bets because of it. But it's kind of manifesting here in the season.
Yeah, it's yeah, it is what it is. But kind of like you said, man, if you're a Panthers fan, I don't want to jump to conclusions, but the next couple of years might be kind of rough. Watch what you got versus what's going on in Houston.
Panthers off that loss at Chicago. Chicago loses to the Saints yesterday, much of the happiness of many a survivor player who had the Saints Chicago opening drive forth and what the New Orleans thirty seven secret beagent man for five three plays later bajing to Comet, great catch from Coole Comet from eighteen to out seven to nothing Bears after New Orleans punts second and fifteen at their own forty one for Chicago beagent pick by Paulsen at Dabo that led to a short forty five yard field for
the Saints, car to a love on third and goal from the eight. Was seven to seven with forty four seconds left. The first Bears came right back seventy five yards bajing to Comet again for nine fourteen to seven Bears, then twelve to fifty two left in the second quarter, but then New Orleans came right back seventy five yards car to Taysom Hill from two out, tie ball game again fourteen apiece, a fourteen apiece rather six ozh five left in the second quarter. Cairo Santos then joinked a
forty yard field goal in the ensuing drive. Fourteen fourteen would be the halftime score after Groupe had a fifty five yard field goal that was set up by a DJ More fumble. Then Chicago answered with the Santos thirty one yard It was seventeen to seventeen at that point, tied a gam team's traded punts. Then New Orleans went fifty three yards held to Juwan Johnson for three out,
twenty four to seventeen New Orleans. Now from this point forward, Kelly, the game was just a seven point margin where Chicago
just kept getting rebuffed in this ballgame. Beigent picked on the Bears second play on the ensuing drive, Marcus May on the other end of that, but the Chicago de held when they stopped car short on a fourth and one at the Chicago's seventeen, then still down seven thirty nine at They're on twenty nine for Chicago beajent picked by Paul's on to devo again five oh eight to go, but New Orleans can't do anything with it. Chicago held
to a three and out. New Orleans gets it back with two forty five to go, but that resulted in a group a missed forty seven yard field goal. In fact, he joinked that one.
No good.
Bear's got the ball back down seven again with two twenty six to go. Second play of that drive, those second and twenty at their own twenty seven two sixty to go beaij and sacked by Tomrio Davis fumbled. Pete Warner recovered ball game twenty four to seventeen. New Orleans beije in eighteen of thirty for two twenty two touchdown three picks. He was sacked twice eight four to seventy.
On the ground with one fumble loss, they outgained Chicago did New Orleans three sixty eight to three oh one, but minus five in turnovers led to plus ten New Orleans points, but the last three in the fourth quarter stymied any chances. We just mentioned of Chicago having to come back from that twenty four to seventeen one score deficit. By the way, we have this tweet from Fabian Summer over at at Worse. Fabian Summer he's at action. No, Fabian Summer is at is with Rob Bizola at the Hammer.
Pardon me, Fabian Summer's over at the Hammer. He said the Saints had a five to nothing turnover advantage and didn't cover. Teams with a plus five turnover margin were two two hundred and twenty seven, twelve and one against the spread since nineteen eighty nine, nineteen eighty nine as wild sorry doing public enemy okay, and the Saints get the plus five turnover advantage, still can't cover, but the Bears don't get the win. So this is Carolina at Chicago.
We probably made more of this than I should have. The one in seven Panthers at the two and seven Bears. I couldn't decide between the Bears minus four the Bears mine is three and a half. I ended up with the Bears mines three and a half, ning right on three and a half. Three and a half on the Bears, yeah, yeah, up from three earlier. I think that's where it opened most places. But it is three and a half now at DraftKings. It came my way, wasn't wasn't that initially?
Yeah, it was, it was. It was bears three earlier. That's why I punched these in the earlier this morning, about four hours ago. And then yeah, we're three and a half pretty much everywhere in the market right now.
Not much to say about these two teams other than Arizona's probably still worse with Clayton tune than the both of these teams are, so I think again, Eric Eager's greatest call is Arizona will will end up with a number one pick. We'll get to them if they're going with Kyler Murray or with Clayton toontor what's happening there. But these two teams going nowhere fast, Silk can't get in the win column. But I will say the Tyson Beason experience has been better than most would have expected.
D two quarterback for sure. I mean, you know, going back to that tweet roll quickly that was I was sitting there the whole game. I had the same sign into a teaser and didn't know. But like sitting there, you're like how many times you're gonna turn the ball over and still be live in this game? And he set them up for a little bit of success at least early on.
We'll come back, we'll continue with Week ten games. We'll get to the Sunday slate and we'll talk Kansas City Miami, which I know they're both on buys this week, but we've got to touch on that game yesterday from Frankfurt. It's a numbers game at vis in these Sports Betting Network guessing lines for Week ten Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback, James O'Connor Gill, you're seeing the ball well.
Lately.
Megapod has been on a epic run with all of our picks, so check it out again the Beating the Book Megapod. For all those on the Beating the Book feed, thank you, sir, appreciate it. Hope it last, Ray Pierce, I have a three tea money line parlay Ravens, Bengals and Chargers. I'm pretty sure you guarantee, you guaranteed that nothing could go wrong. It's right, that's exactly what I guarantee. Do you have any play on tonight's game, Charges and Jets.
I got nothing. I'd be I'd be leaning Chargers, which I feel like is in the minority. I feel like I know, I know multiple people that bets on the Jets tonight, but I can't get there.
Grayson Rossy, pointing out to us that Pete Futech are our lovely college football friend, hates doesn't understaid he doesn't understand the logic of down eight going for two. So you know, quote exactly what you need, Pete says, if you kick the extra point, you know exactly what you need. We'll have to have a discussion with Pete about that later in the week. Man. Jesse, well, that.
Was I mean, it wasn't last night the perfect example of like you saw it play out where they get the two. Yeah, so like now you know that they have a better chance of winning.
After that second half, wagers came down to that two point co version by I talked to Sean McDermott, Yah, because I was Cincinnati plus six. Jesse Welch just want to congratulate us all who had made Stroud the number one overall pick the Texans and Panthers season thus far or payment enough for.
My bets that should have cashed. I wish it worked that way.
Let's see, this is just to follow Visa says. I'm not one hundred percent on what happened because of a stupid adult responsibilities taking my attention, but my Texans minus two and a half would have benefited from them signing Matt Brown mid drive right worked out for.
A minute way. It was actually surprised we didn't get ten ten times more tweets about that yesterday? Will we get a bunch of that? The better life tim loss?
And I'll say it again, I'm growing tired of commentators mentioning analytics in a way that sounds like they're apologizing to the viewer for the decision that's being made in the game. Oh, I one hundred percent agree with that. I We'll do one more here. It's not juice if you win. Why can't you talk about your circu picks after the fact? Oh?
I can't.
Also, can you explain how to calculate the value of your survivor pool so I can figure it out for my own pool?
Thank you? Always love the show boys.
I think he's talking about the intrinsic value, just the total money in the pool divided by the number of entries remaining. That's all I'm talking about there. And then in terms of what I had yesterday, I lost on the Panthers. I couldn't come up with a fifth pick. I was like, well, I don't know, I don't know. I'm gonna hope the Panthers are as good as some folks say they are.
Because it's tough to get to five. I can't do I can't do it this past weekend. It's tough to get to it. It's when the list started. Yeah, gil of teams that teams that I can't I can't handle anymore, either betting on, betting against or just having it a bet altogether. Panthers are on that list. It was dumb. I tried to get cute with them a couple of weeks, worked out one time, NOLP see you later.
Before that, I had correct as. If you listen to Guessing Lines, you knew that I liked Cincinnati who got it done against Buffalo last night. I liked Washington. If you listened to the show last week, you heard me talk about how I don't think the line should have moved when Washington got rid of both Montes Sweat and Chase Young.
I liked the.
Eagles, which was super duper fortunate. By the way, I completely admitted, but I didn't buy into what like all of our guests. All of our guests loved Dallas last week.
I just didn't.
I've seen too many Philly Dallas games to have understood that conviction. So that got That was fortunate, that got home. And the fourth one and I'm drawing a blank now on what the fourth one was. Oh, Kansas City against Miami, and if you listened to the megapot on that, and that was kind of just a default. I've been saying Miami's a bully all this time, and I'm like, and I needed to come up with enough picks, and I'm like, I'll just take Kansas City until Miami proves me otherwise.
So that was that was my four or five about that Kansas City Miami game.
Yesterday.
I realized both teams are on buys this week, so this will applied to week ten. But Kansas City does get it done. Twenty one to fourteen. It was a tale of two halves. In fact, with two thirty one left in the second quarter, Kansas City was out gaining Miami two one to sixty seven at that point in the game, and they were up fourteen to nothing from that point six to thirty one. Pardon me left in the second quarter to the end of the game, and I'll just do the quick math with the final total yards.
Miami out gained Kansas City two twenty five to sixty six, and they end up losing twenty one to fourteen. Miami does on a final sequence they're taking the ball downfield. That final sequence of four downs from Miami would to a like regressed into like a high school quarterback.
It felt like that.
On that last sequence, they got the ball all the way to the Kansas City thirty one with one to seventeen left on two most runs of twenty five and nineteen, but then three incomplete passes, one looking worse than the previous like where you throwing the ball kind of thing, and then on the on fourth down a wayward snap and that was the ballgame. So Kansas City does get it done. But in order I fully admit this, though we say it all the time, the NFL is plinko.
In order to end up with good in the NFL, you got to get the best of these kind of toss up games in the end, and so they've worked out for me admittedly, But did you learn anything about either team? I just want to I'll put one question to you, because Dolphins are exactly who they thought they were.
They're a bully.
Todd Wishnev said something very interesting about the Chiefs yesterday. We're so locked into thinking of them, thinking of them as an offensive juggernaut. Has the time come for us to think about them as actually a better defensive team than offensive team, and that it's really just the power of Mahomes on offense.
Oh, I think there's a lot of that going on this year. I will say, I think that if at the end of the year, if we're saying that this was a better defense than an offense, though the Kids City Chiefs are not winning.
A Super Bowl, that very well could be true.
Just overall, I hear what Todd's saying is, yes, it is basically only Mahomes on offense right now.
I think there's some wisdom in that though, right like we think we don't really think of them in the same way that they are now.
I think that's where it's. Look, the defense is covering up and helping them get it wins, covering up some major problems on this offense right now. And I there's a lot of the you know, NFL trade deadline. We could you know, we could talk about this stuff for days, but some of these teams that just feel like there's an obvious need and can't go out and get get something to help the wide receivers, of course is so thin here like they needed something. Let's go to do
a game on Sunday morning. Let's to Germany.
Colts at Patriots in Germany once again, Oh Colts, Patriots, this ain't your Dolphins Chiefs game, Germans.
Enjoy this one.
Four and five Colts two and seven Patriots. You see Bill Belichick's record without Tom Brady, can we flash that up on the screen. He ain't no Joe Jackson Gibbs. I don't care what any of y'all say, as witnessed by his straight up record without Tom Brady, which we'll get too, mom with Charlie. Indianapolis, as we just talked about beats, they beat Carolina on strength of those two pick six as Minshew was seventeen of twenty six for
one twenty seven in the victory. Again they were out gained by the Panthers two seventy five to one ninety eight. But those two pick sixes where everything New England loses to Washington outright twenty to seventeen. Opening Pats drive with the game. After a Washington three and out to start fourth and three at the Washington thirty nine, they went for Jones and complete attendant for Taekwon Thornton. Skins eventually got a sly thirty seven yard field goal three to
nothing Washington. Then after New England three and out again Washington the Commodore's they went eighty yards Robinson in from nine ten to nothing Washington. Could it be a route, of course not, It's Washington twelve oh five left in
the second quarter. Then after a New England three and out Washington second and eight at their own sixteen Robinson hit by Johnny Tavia, a Jelanni party Jelanni Tavia fumbles, de Von Godshaw recovers, sets up in New England at the Washington twenty five three plays in Jones to Hunter Henry from fourteen out ten to seven Commodoores nine twenty six
left in the second quarter. Then after a Washington punt, New England went eighty four yards and two plays Jones a juju for twenty then reminder from sixty four out to the house, fourteen to ten New England six o'h one left in the second quarter, and then Washington took it all the way down field from their own twenties to the New England five and Sam Howell with a horrific pick in the end zone Kyle Dugger on the
other end. So New England led this fourteen to ten at the half, and Washington led in total yards two forty six to one sixty three. Time of possession was twenty one minutes and forty two seconds to eight eighteen, but because the minus two and turnovers, they trailed fourteen to ten opening drive of the second half, third and ten at the Washington thirty eight for mac Jones, He's sacked by k J.
Henry.
He fumbles and the Commodes recover, but no Kelly roughing the passers called fifteen yards for playing football fifteen yards for tackling, results in a free three points eventually for New England. Chad Ryland for forty three was seventeen to ten New England with ten fourteen left in the third quarter, and if you were a Washington fan at this point, or you had the Commodores in a bet you were infuriated. This is the worst roughing the passer call I think
I might have ever seen. Well, it's up there, there's been playing. I can't say it's the worst one of this week. Skins came right back, said five yards though howled to dots in from thirty three out tie ball game at seventeen was six fifty one left in the third. Then after New England punt followed by sly thirty rfield was twenty seventeen Washington one forty nine left in the third quarter. That would be your final because the team's traded punts. Washington was like fourth and one at their
own forty. They're like, we'll punt it with eleven twenty one to go. Then they traded punts again. New England punned once more, and after a three and out, Washington got the ball back up three with five oh four to go at their own five. Fourth and two at
their own twenty seven. New England would jump off side when Washington was in punt fourntion That extended the drive and then New England ended up with the ball down three at their own ten with two oh seven left and no timeouts, but fourth and fourth the Washington forty nine with one oh two to go, Jones intended for Juju first it gainst to Juju for six but two plays later, by the way, they convert that fourth down second and eight at the Washington forty one with thirty
eight seconds to go, Jones picked by Jartavius Martin off the deflection ballgame and Washington holds on Jones was twenty four to forty four for two to twenty. They gave up four hundred and thirty two total yards to Washington. I will say New England and Indianapolis will be a pick them in Germany.
What else can you make course two point favorites? Really? Yeah, I don't.
It's a coin flip, Like, how can you it was a favorite in this game? I mean maybe, so maybe Indianapolis should be a chick because New England is terrible. Coming back board A guests looking for value numbers game VS and D Sports Betting Network.
Here are three reasons Zen is America's number one nicotine pouch. We use food grade ingredients. We have a wide selection of varieties and they all come in two strengths. Find Zen at a store near you. Warning this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Gil Alexander Kelly Bidlett we get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback in the reaction of everybody.
Joey Sinante. As old as that Billy Walters commercial is getting it still isn't worse than Pat Boone trying to get me to buy silver and Gold that aired like two years ago. That's very that's very true that Boone is very insistent on it. Joe Abraham, you guys might have already tried this, but an open invite to the show for anyone who fit to submit their survivor pick would be a fun segment if any accepted. That's a
great idea, and it is an open invitation. Let me just say this, but God, I feel bad for those folks. You know, again, four non submissions in the month of November, we're this far in and again, I just I always worry about those people, like what's happening in their lives.
Yeah, I'm gonna make a call and say I don't want to hear from those people because what either something bad probably happened or they're pissed off. I mean, they're not gonna be happy.
I'm gonna make the call above your call and say, call us, we wanted you on the show. Jud O'Connor Colts last year in Panthers.
This year.
The malpractice Reich is performing to these NFL franchises should make him as employable as McDaniels. Yeah, I wouldn't go that far. I wouldn't go that far. I don't think he wanted Bryce Young. I think he wanted C. J. Stroud, Phil Weiss, I guess your sixty percent rule only pertains to everyone else. Well, Phil, the gentleman by the name of it's not juice if you win, asked me directly. So that's why I gave the picks of what I
just had. I'm talking about moving forward. We're not going to talk about our sub sixty percent entries in any kind of exciting, excitable way or excited way that we might actually cash in this. But oh, if we get above sixty percent, Kelly, all bets are off. Tom Collins, Gil thank you for keeping the great Joe Gibbs as the top NFL coach of the modern era. Coach Gibbs won the three Super Bowls with three average quarterbacks. No Hall of famers. That is correct, Sir Coach Belichick has won?
How many without Brady? That is also correct? By the way, here's Brady's record, do we have that? Finally, Brady's record without Bill Belichick eighty one ninety five for us is at Belichick's record without Brady as as his quarterback eighty one and ninety five straight up lifetime. Do you know what Joe Gibbs's record is without Tom Brady? Three Super Bowl titles? That's what his record is with Tom Brady. Just we'll point that out. All right, Let's do more
of these. Let's get some value, Let's get some Let's get some bets.
Early window on Sunday, ten Pacific time one Eastern Texans at Bengals.
Texans four and four under Demico Ryans Bengals now five and three after that win last night against the Buffalo Bills. Houston. First of all, this was this a game of the day. I think Philly Dallas gave this, gave it a run, but I'm gonna say this was the game all the day between Houston and Tampa Bay. Third play from scrimmage Stroud to Schultz fumble sets up a McLauchlin thirty five yard field go three to nothing Tampa and suing drive.
Houston goes seven play seventy five yards Stroud and Nico Collins for fourteen seven to three Houston, then Tampa Bay seventy five yards mayfield to Kate Otton from three yards out of ten to seven. Tampa. We're still in the first quarter. Teams trade three announce then after another Houston three and out, Bucks go forty yards on a shortfield set up by an unsportsman like penalty on the punt
return for Sean White. Eventually in from one seventeen to seven Tampa Bay nine oh five left the second quarter. They got some cushion. Twenty to ten Tampa Bay third quarter, now first play. Texans have the ball in the second half. Stroud and Noah Brown for seventy five mostly yak but with fair Baron hurt. We learned that Kyami Fairbairn got hurt at some point in the first half with a quad injury. Now, Kelly, I am no field goalologist or kicker ologist, but I'm told a injury is important. He
couldn't go. So Houston down now twenty to sixteen. They go for two because they don't have a kicker. People are like, why they going for two? They're only down for it they don't have a kicker. They failed, by the way, So it remains twenty to sixteen, twelve twenty left and third quarter. Now it's twenty three to sixteen. Tampa Bay's up a touchdown. Houston goes seventy nine yards Stroud to Tank Dell from twenty nine out twenty three to twenty two. Remember they have no kicker, so they
go for two. Stroud misfires intended for Dell again twenty three twenty two. It remains five poin fifty nine left in the third quarter. This was bananas after at Tampa Bay three. Now Houston gets to fourth and goal at the Atlanta nine. Now, remember no kicker, but in this case, no kicker, no problem. Stroud de Schultz touchdown two point conversion is good. Stroud takes it himself, and all of
a sudden, Houston is up seven fourteen eleven ago. Tampa Bay comes right back, though, seventy five yards Mayfield to Evans for fifty three, the big one, setting up a White one yard touchdown plunge thirty to thirty eleven forty three to go. Houston ends up with a fourth and goal at the eleven with eight forty eight left. Remember no Miami, Fairbairn, no problem. Dara Ougunbowale a running back
twenty nine yard field goal. He's kicking the ball off too after this good thirty three to thirty Texas eight forty one to go. Dare Ogunbowale is your kicker now. Team's tage three and outs Houston with some fumblelock by the way, when Stroud got stripped on third and eighteen at their own fourteen, but George Fant landed on it. Always remember fumbleluck, boys and girls. Tampa Bay the matriculate, starting at their thirty nine with four to twenty seven
to go, They're down three. They get to a third and twenty three at their own thirty eight with one fifty five to go. Mayfield to Tray Palmer for twenty one. Then four fourth and two at the Houston forty one Mayfield for a gutsy five yards. Three plays later, Mayfield to Otten from fourteen out touchdown. Tampa Bay's gonna win this forty six seconds to go, thirty seven thirty three bucks.
Forty six seconds. What could happen?
Right, Well, Stroud could happen. C. J. Stroud is Shills for fourteen timeout Houston, then to Schultz for two final timeout for Houston, then to Noah Brown for eighteen, then to Tank Dell for twenty six tiptoeing the sidelines, then to Dell in the end zone. Touchdown from fifteen out six seconds to go thirty nine, thirty seven Houston. Here's the issue. A lot of people had Houston minus two and a half. So all you gotta do is kick the extra boy right right, But you don't have a kicker. Also,
here's the thing on the two point conversion. You don't want to risk something going nuts and fumbling and having the Bucks return it for a two point score in the other direction. So you know what Demko ryans absolutely correctly does they kneel on the football. Oh, the conspiracy theorists go crazy out there.
But it was the correct football play, Yes, absolutely the correct thing.
Just a smart play, by the way, touchback on the kickoff from from your running back kicker. Now, Pitchy chi Wuo wou fails ballgame, Houston, Texas thirty nine Bucks thirty seven. Buccaneers get the money ats, but Houston gets the win. Stroud thirty for forty two, a rookie record for seventy five touchdowns with matches. A rookie record, by the way, was not or did not throw a pick with sack
three times. Noah Brown six for one to fifty three in a touchdown, Schultz ten for one thirty in a touchdown, Dell six for one to fourteen and two touchdowns. They outgained Tampa Bay four ninety six to three thirty two in a game where both teams combine for eighteen penalties and two hundred and five yards. What a win for Houston. Let me just say this rookie of the year, Offensive rookie of the year rest in peace.
It is CJ. Stroud's.
He is as high as anywhere between five dollars to like seven dollars this morning, minus five hundred to minus seven hundred. You are betting, You are betting against an injury. If you're betting anybody else at this point with CJ. Stroud, Good on him, Absolutely good on him.
Who are they playing again? That was that took forever?
Cincinnati? Uh yeah, Cincinnati, Cincinnati. Uh it deserved it, by the way, what dramatic, real quick.
Yeah, would you have kicked would you have kicked the field goal?
Right?
The extra point? You mean, no, the field goal that they kicked with uh with or earlier in the quarter.
But his name, yeah, yeah, I mean they know more about him than I do, so they must have been confident enough that he could hit one inside thirty, which he did.
I mean it was the It was the exact like example of Matt Brown freaking out about that nobody could kick.
But that's exactly right.
I mean, if I'm a head coach, this is this is not someone who I would think is regularly working out with the special teams like you. All you've gotten to see I would think is six or seven kicks during pregame workouts, you know whatever? I know? Was that the eleven yard line?
What else are you gonna do? Reason Matt Brown decided to kick these field goals on the shows because he couldn't believe a punter couldn't kick a twenty one years someone on the team couldn't well punter specifically, right, Yeah, and they could. They didn't have one apparently that.
I was a little surprised, But they made Cincinnati beats Buffalo last night.
They traded touchdowns to the beginning of the game. Cincinnati had the ball twice Buffalo once it was fourteen to seven. Cincinnati was seconds left in the first quarter. Then they traded punts. Buffalo down seven. They have a second and ten at their own twelve. Allen was picked by cam Taylor Britt. That set up Cincinnati at the thirty two, but they couldn't do anything with it. The second and one at the twenty three no game and the delayed game,
then a hole and then off side Zach Cold false start. Anyway, they had a punt, so still fourteen to seven, but then Buffalo three and ount Cincinnati fourth and one at the Buffalo thirty six with two thirty nine left in the second quarter, They're up seven. Brow to Chase for eleven. Three plays later, Brow to Drew Sample for twenty two. Twenty one to seven, Cincinnati one thirty seven left in
the second quarter. That's how the half would end. After Allen was called for an intentional grounding that would knock Buffalo out of field goal range. Remember we saw that earlier in the year with Gino Smith. It doesn't matter to the officials what your intention is as quarterback. If you misread the play, if you don't know where the wide receiver's gonna end up, they just care about where the ball lands. Twenty one to seven at the half, Buffalo would get a Tyler bassfield goal to make it
twenty one to ten. A little later on Cincinnati fourth and five at the Buffalo thirty seven with two twenty one left the third quarter, they would only gain two on a Burrow to sample pass. Buffalo got the ball back. They would matriculate first and ten at the Cincinnati twenty two down eleven, Allen to Daltkin Gay though, and he fumbled. Though Cincinnati would get another twenty yard chip shot field goal for McPherson to make it twenty four to ten.
And then Buffalo, you know, late in the game, twelve plays seventy five yards they go took four to thirty two, Alan to Digs for seventeen. They went for two, and they got it Allen to Diggs down eight down from fourteen to eight. They went for two to make it six. That made Buffalo a second half spread winner. But Buffalo never saw the ball again and Cincinnati takes home the money. Preflop, I will say Cincinnati minus seven in a hook at.
Home againstkay So interesting. This opened like seven to seven and a half. I think even got up to eight, but it is back down to seven pretty much. A yeah, eight at draftings earlier this morning is down seven.
More guesting lines on the other side, numbers came in the Sports Betting Network skill Alexander we get tweets at beating the book. A lot of people fascinated by the fact that the whole punter kicker thing and the Matt Brown like this is why Matt Brown went crazy about it. Tom Stephen says, I'll never understand why teams don't have punters and kickers cross train as emergency backups. What else do they do during the week? And Nash last name Mash.
I'm officially on Matt Brown side of punters are useless if they can't be utilized as your break glass backup kicker. Seriously, why pay millions of dollars for these guys just to punt the football, which only Ron Rivera gets gets joy out of doing. Trip Tepper points out another another big point in that Texans Bucks game. He said Bowles clock
management in the Texans Bucks game was atrocious. He burned the final time out at forty nine seconds to avoid a ten second runoff from Houston from the Houston fourteen. You want less time in case you score next play touchdown. Bolls handed Houston two more plays with that decision, Stroud touchdown with six seconds left, and then Shine the professor did this just leave my screen there to shine the professor. Professor Shine said Bill Belichick had an impossible situation in Cleveland.
No quarterback won a playoff game with testa verity all in the middle of Modell threatening to move the Browns, which he did by announcing the move in the middle of Belichick's final season, Browns were top five defense. Yeah, I'm not saying he's a terrible coach. He's a Hall of Famer. But I'll take the guy again just comparing him to because we have this discussion through the lens of Bruce Bochie last week. Is Bruce Bochie the greatest
manager of our lifetime just like Joe Gibbs the greatest coach? Yes, because the both of them won multiple titles with nothing like there's not a kid who's twenty five years old.
Do you think there's a kid who's twenty five years old today that can name one of those Washington players, one of them seriously Rigo maybe so nobody again won three Super Bowls, One with a quarterback who no one in the NFL wanted and had to blame in the CFL, or at least Miami didn't want him in Joe Thaisman, One with a guy who nobody in the NFL wanted in Doug Williams. Maybe for other reas by the way at that time. And then one with a six round draft pick at a wazoo by the name of Mark Rippin.
Again just named the quarterbacks. I'll take that guy. He had strike seasons to overcome, he had teams that he had. He took Scabs to a three and zero record that movies were made of. So anyway, we could have that argument forever. But I'll go with the Bochees and the Gibbs of the world. Okay, what's next? Saints at Viking, Saints at Vikings.
All right, Saints at Vikings.
Oh, this is a sneaky good game. Yep five and four Saints five and four Vikings. Derek Carr in that win over the Bears yesterday was twenty five and thirty four for two to eleven, two touchdowns, No picks. He was sacked zero times. Taysom Hill one one pass completed, one for one for three yards and a touchdown, eleven carries for fifty two yards and four catches for thirteen in a touchdown. Taysom Hill becomes the fifth player to join the NFL's ten ten ten club, ten passing touchdowns,
ten receiving touchdowns, and ten rushing touchdowns. Mazeltov to Taysom Hill.
I did not catch it. Becomes the fourth place, fifth, fifth. There's four other guys that have done this.
Yes, I'll get you the names on the.
Break, like past the year nineteen thirty eight. I don't know what year it's past.
I'm just telling you.
Past the year. I don't know.
He outgained They were outgained by Chicago. New Orleans was three sixty eight to three on one but plus five and turnovers, as we mentioned yesterday, plus five that led to plus ten New Orleans net points, but the last three of those turnovers in the fourth quarters, timing any chance Chicago had to come back from their twenty four
to seventeen deficit. But again we showed that record earlier from the Gentleman Fabe in summer over at the hammer, which is you can't cover with plus five and turnovers
it's so rare. And then there's the Minnesota Vikings. What a story this was yesterday Josh Dobbs who got there a second and a half ago, which is the second time this year that Josh Jobs has gotten somewhere a second and a half ago and had a start for it was his fifteen Josh Jobbs is fifteen since November of last year, since Week fifteen of last year.
This is fifteen. Sitting all Week two wondering why the hell do you like? Vikings? You really believe you really you traded for Josh Jobs like you really believe this is going to give your team this much of a boost. They didn't even need to give the guy a full week of practice.
Oh, I think they knew. I think they knew this is if they're going to go for it. This was exactly the guy to get right. Vikings thirty one, Falcons twenty eight. But we thought we were getting cheer in Hall this week for the full game. Teams traded punts and field goals to start the game, but on one play before the Minnesota field goal to tie it at three, jer in Hall hit on his try to get in the end zone. Hurt ruled out almost immediately or at least a few plays after that, and Joshua Dobbs makes
his debut. He didn't even know Kelly, didn't even know
his teammates' names in some cases. After in Atlanta punt Minnesota at their own five Dobs sacked by Kalas Campbell in the end zone safety five to three Atlanta fourteen oh one left second quarter, then an eight to three game Atlanta's a first intend of their own twenty six Dobbs hit by Arnold Ebiquity fumbles, Lorenzo Carter recovers returns at nineteen yards, but the Minnesota defense held, led to another coup field goal eleven to three Atlanta.
All Right.
Vikings then go seventy five yards set up by a third and eleven conversion by Hobbs from the Atlanta fourteen where next Gen had him going fifty nine point seven yards on the scramble was unbelievable. And then Hobbs to Madison from two out two plays later, eleven to ten Atlanta. What a play by Dopps And you thought, well, he can't make a better play than that.
Oh yes, he could third quarter, fourth to when we hit halftime, When we hit halftime, smash Atlanta second half?
Are you kidding me? Smashed you smash?
Oh yeah, we're the scores in this situation. Josh Dobbs has been there for four days. He doesn't know these guys' names, he doesn't know plays. I know he's been great all year. The heck with that, I don't even like Atlanta. Smash Atlanta second half? What did you do to Atlanta? Second half? Smash?
Third quarter? Fourteen to thirteen Atlanta. Now Atlanta goes seventy five yards sixty on an almost all yak touchdown pass from Heineken to Johnny Smith or as we're calling him now, twenty one to thirteen, Atlanta six to fifty two left third quarter.
Heineke's going crazy.
Then, after Minnesota three and out, Atlanta first play, first and ten at their own eighteen bijon hit by Caleb Avans fumbles, Joshua Tellis recovers Minnesota short field of the Atlanta forty six plays Dobs in from eighteen. I love when he does that. Did it for the Cardinals a lot too, twenty one to nineteen, and then on the two points.
He doesn't know the place, kills us. That's all he can do.
Hobbs the Tristan Jackson on the two sub version. We're tied at twenty one with two twenty left of the third. Then Heinik throws a pick on the very first play of the ensuing drive Byron Murphy Junior on the other because of course he does. That leads to a Joseph thirty one yard field goal twenty four to twenty one
Minnesota with fourteen eighteen to go. Then, after the team's trade punts, Atlanta goes eighty yards, including a third and eight Heinike conversion with his feet, then Algier eventually in from five out. Atlanta takes the lead twenty eight twenty four with two o eight to go, and the people who smashed Didntlant are feeling good.
Oh yeah, this is perfect now where we left with such limited time, he doesn't know the place, doesn't know the names. He can't possibly pull this off.
Gil Minnesota ends up with a fourth and seven at the Atlanta thirty four with fifty two seconds to go. You're feeling good, it is I just need one stop, one stop, and then Joshua Hobbs with an impossible twenty two yard scramble. Oh it's happened, t bo Joshua Dobbs. So I keep saying Hobbs, yes, oh like three times. Oh you know what, because it's in my thing.
I had to change way eight. You'll a big Hobbs and show.
Sorry, Joshua Dobbs. I'm so sorry. Joshua Dobbs with an impossible twenty two yard scramble. Impossible, first and ten at the Atlanta twelve, with thirty nine seconds to go, down four incomplete to Hocketson for six, then the branded Powell for the remaining six touchdown. Minnesota thirty one, twenty eight, twenty two seconds to go. That's how it would end. Dobbs twenty of thirty for one fifty eight, two touchdowns, no pikes. He was sack three times seven for sixty
six on the ground a touchdown. He did lose two fumbles. Minnesota beats Atlanta thirty one to twenty eight, Minnesota by one and a half. I'll split the difference between pick him in a three.
This is the biggest Dobbs so far this year, Gil the number one it is. What did you just say? What was your guest Minnesota minus one and a half, Saints minus two and a half. Oh, the wrong team's favorite. You had one, I couldn't remember which one.
Let me just ask you this. Okay, I know we're supposed to be a second game here, but I'm gonna let me ask you that when you think of Derek Carr, when the average person thinks of Derek Carr, is it am I correct when I say they think of Derek Carr as not an elite quarterback, but a better than average NFL quarterback.
Slightly better than that, better than Jimmy Garoppolo.
Yeah, Okay, when they think of Joshua Dobbs. Forget about Joshua Hobbs for a second. But when they think about Joshua Dobbs, do you think that the average person thinks of josh Dobbs as a journeyman, pick up off the scrap heap, below average, slightly below average, but feist the NFL quarter Yeah?
I think you just described him perfectly. I have the opposite opinion of both.
I think josh I would take josh Dobbs over Derek Carr ten out of ten times at the end at the ends of any NFL game, because Derek cart I'm going back to his his Raiders day. Historically, whenever there's a key decision to be made late in the game, he always makes the wrong one. Not always, but usually makes the wrong one. Josh Dobbs, I don't care what uniform. We've seen him in Tennessee's, Arizona's now with the Vikings. He is always making plays. The Saints could win this game,
but they shouldn't be favored. I think the Vikings should be favored. Yeah, I can't. I doubt I'll be getting involved in this. I think it's interesting to say. I hear what you're saying. Huge football game for both. Yeah, it's a huge game. I like, well, I kind of snickered when you first.
That's sneaky because I think for us as better as you don't think of like, yeah, you just look at records. They're five and four. Both these seeds are five and four. Yeah, Dobbs has been incredible. He is the ultimate so far this season. Nobody else that I can put higher on my list of sir. I must tip my cap to you because you have beaten me soundly betting against you and proven me time time and time again that I shouldn't be doing this. Sorry.
When I put in Dobbs and my notes, it autocorrects to Hobbes. Apparently they don't like the name dogs and so that I ron bergery through it. By apologies to Joshua Dobbs in the entire Dobbs family, because I love you, man, and that's a bet. That's a bet for me. Minnesota a whole bunch more games to get to.
We will do so.
On the other side, the numbers told the story they always done.
It's on those idiots who believe in the analytics.
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gons our Number Super Numbers game It, Visa these Sports Betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, but Game plus, iHeartRadio YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by Bark Canada at the d Barkanada.
Forest Mantas speakers out there right here at the d l DA. It's Kill Alexander.
It's Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for week number ten in the National Football League, trying to extract value and exercise that has worked splendidly, with the exception of one week thus far this year. Splendidly, we had tweets at beating the book Torch. D bought my uncle a jem Mint ten C. J. Stroud card for his birthday a few months ago.
Kind of want that back now. I don't blame you towards D.
Shine still wants to do the Gibbs Belichick still Gibbs Belichick debate. I love you, Shine. Gibbs had Bobby Bethard as the GM. True Bethard was responsible for players and was very savvy with old it rules it. When Bethard went to San Diego, that's how we got Stan Humphys. Also Ripping was on the eighty seven and active rush. Oh you don't have to tell me Seane never played until nineteen ninety. Not allowed to stockpile.
Quarterbacks, on and on.
Maybe Belichick needs a new GM. He says, yes, he should fire himself as a GEM, that's for sure. If I mean, would we all know what's going on?
Right? He's just waiting until he gets that wins record and then it's see you later.
Yeah you hear the Who was the rumor? Someone started the rumor that he would end up in Washington, speaking of conflating the two things. That the next year, Josh Harris heard a couple of Yeah, by the way, really quick, did you see the Glazier report on this Raiders stuff speaking of the Patriots? Oh, what was that? That that they just love?
They went crazy when they won and they had a grievance airing of grievances and they hate Josh McDaniels. Oh it was like McDaniels. No, No, like McDaniels asking Antonio Peers to like make a speech to the Go see Glazers. Go to his twitter see what he actually said. But like asked Antonio Piers to like give a speech to the players to kind of help HiPE him up after
they're playing bad. Right, He's not able to get through to the players, so he uses is an inexacriate thing of the Giants beating the Patriots, and McDaniels pulls him aside afterward and says, never do that again. Yeah, never do that again. Got upstairs to Mark Davis. Good for you, Mark Davis. I've turned a corner.
I believe that report, and I did hear that report. I believe that report more than I believe the one that came out last week. Do you see that one thing?
I don't think that the one you said, Mark.
Davis gave him a fortune cookie after he dressed up as Mark Davis, Josh McDaniels and Halloween, and in the fortune cookie, the fortune said nice, nice job, hotshot, you're fired or whatever. There's all kinds of rumors coming, but there was a tweet from some guy this is this is Jay Glazer and this is legit.
Yeah, yeah, believe me. I completely believe that's with the Raiders. You believe that any.
Hard about the Patriots like him going crazy about that, I'd fire him too.
Absolutely. They should have been fired on the spot, Like what are you talking? You don't you don't coach for that team anymore. Get out of the billshit been fired way before. That.
Shouldn't take that, Doug Wedge, Dobbs, Hobbs, doesn't matter that both miracle workers. By the way, he's showing a picture of a Robert Redford as Hobbs from the Natural. Here's our poll question of the hour, Kelly, give him pole questions.
All right, if I could figure out how to do a poll on Twitter, I'm gonna tell me to do it. But otherwise just tweet it. If you hear Gil Alexander say, Hobbs during guessing lines, do you think the natural or do you think fast to the furious? That's right, it's gonna give us our ultimate answer of how old is our audience?
Master of Puppets. Losing my Atlanta bet was probably one of the best bad beats in my life. Never understood why Atlanta did not put a spy on Dobbs. David Burns don't care what Josh Dobbs does the rest of his career. The guys a winner and makes the most of his ability. Arizona got rid of him because you cannot tank with a guy like him.
Yeah, that's a shot. All right, let's roll through a bunch swait. Here we go, early window Packers at Steelers.
All right, Packers beat the Rams yesterday, the three and five Packers at the five and three Kelly, five and three, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay and the Rams yesterday. Pittsburgh obviously coming off extra rest. Here they're lost to Jacksonville on Thursday, and I have a green Bay. After a trade of punts, Brett Rippin first and tend at the green Bay forty five three thirty two left in the first quarter. He fumbled, regained possession, sacked by Jonathan Owens fumbled again, Devandre Campbell
recovered green Bay shortfield forty one yards. Jones in from three seven to zh in green Bay early second quarter, seven to three at halftime, after Lucas Haversik made a fifty two yarder for the Rams and Carlson missed a forty eight yarder. Third quarter ten to three. Excuse me, seven to three still, Aaron Jones fumble led to a
Rams Haversick forty nine yard try, which he missed. The green Bay matriculated, but on third and two at the Rams four they got stopped by an Aaron Donald Zach Carlton twenty six yard field goal made it ten to three with two ten left in the third quarter.
Real Barnburner here.
Rams turned it over on downs pack three and out ripping picked by Anthony Johnson Junior, led to a Carlson thirty four yard field goal to make it thirteen to three, and then after a Rams three and out, green Bay went seventy two yards loved to Luke Musgrave from twenty out, twenty to three green Bay. That's how it would end. Love twenty of twenty six for two twenty eight. They outgained the Rams three ninety one to one eighty seven.
You know how I was saying the Rams wouldn't you know Puka wouldn't be affected by Stafford being out?
Yeah, I was wrong.
I thought it was Mark Rippin going back to our previous conversation and.
Not brentwib There you go, that would have helped out a little bit. That's where I am.
I didn't have any action in this game, by the way, either, but the Rams were horrific.
I feel also feel like I got a little about you. But I feel like I saw about seven plays from this game. Yes as well?
That said Green Bay at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh minus four. I'll say it's more than a field goal.
Close it is, it's three and a half. Three and a half.
Yeah, I feel like if Pittsburgh's going to win one game handily this year, this might be it.
I agree with Yeah, I agree with that. What's that? All right? Let's keep rolling. Titans at Bucks. Titans three and five, Titans.
At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are also three and five. Who did I say played Thursday night? I got that wrong, by the way, Pittsburgh played Tennessee.
On Thursday night.
Not I said Jacksonville, Jacksonville, How to buy Tennessee. They played so Tennessee with the extra rest here at Tampa Bay, who lost that unbelievable game to Houston. As we talked about, Mayfield was twenty one of thirty for two sixty five two touchdowns. No Pixie was sacked twice in that loss, where again Houston relied on a running back to kick a field goal and kick off for them. Tampa Bay minus three? What else could it be? Tampa Bay minus one?
I guess it'll could I guess it could be minus one. You're not giving Billy Levi's enough credit.
I don't.
I mean, I just I was a lazy guess of minus three, but it gave me really interested in betting no at all.
These two teams with the quarterbacks switch in Tennessee and Tampa is gonna be there. Look, they're a tough, grinded out three and five is an appropriate record for it. They're not gonna be good, They're not gonna be great, But when you're talking the NFC South, they're also not horrible.
This may get the what game do you want? No part of choice?
This week it's it's a mixed for what's forty Niners at Jags probably game game awake five and three Niners six and two, Jags both coming off a bye.
San Francisco minus.
Three confirmed game of the week. By way to make sure, shop around right now. This is a big two and a half three two and a half's and three is widely available. So if you're looking to get involved early, shop around because it is two and a half or three. I don't know about you, gil this one. This one's tough. I might be sitting on the sidelines for this one.
Power rankings are gonna be awfully interesting this week.
I think if you're if you're telling me I'm catching a full field goal plus because I have a feeling Niners are gonna take more this week. I think it's gonna be hard. It'd be Jags or pass.
This is a step up in competition for Jackson.
Oh, it is big town, big time. Absolutely, let's squeeze it one. Brown's at Ravens.
That's pretty good game too. Browns are five and three, the Ravens are seven to two. The Ravens should be nine to zero, and they're the only team you can say that about.
Quite frankly.
Browns there's really not much to say about this game. They played Arizona yesterday three to zero. They're up three to nothing. First intend at their own forty for Arizona, down three to nothing. I should say now Clayton tune picked by Denzel Ward that led to an eleven play
forty nine yard drive for Cleveland. Watson passed deflected high in the air, caught by Cooper in the end zone for an eleven yard touchdown, ten to nothing Cleveland six forty eight left in the second quarter, would be thirteen to nothing at halftime. By the way, the halftime yardage advantage was one ninety three.
To thirty one. Is that good for Arizona.
Third quarter first and ten from the air for Arizona at their own twenty nine thirty eight left and third quarter two sacked by Shelby Harris fumbles Miles Garrett recovered three plays. There are he plays later watsonton joke to Najoku from five out, twenty to nothing Cleveland, there's no need to go on. Browns would end up winning at twenty seven to nothing. Watson nineteen of thirty for two nineteen two touchdowns, no Picksley with sack once Cooper five
for one thirty nine in a touchdown. The Browns held Arizona to seven first downs, one of twelve on third downs, fifty eight total yards, seventeen of which were passing, and they were plus three in turnovers, which led to plus fourteen Cleveland points net point. Did it tell us anything
about the Browns? Not a damn thing. By the way, If the Cardinals keep playing Clayton tune, my God, and then there's Baltimore, well it's an interesting Yeah, supposed to be Kyler Murray this week, though we led to what we're led to believe at this moment.
I love going back to that tweet. What you want you want to get rid of Dobbs, because yes, you want to tank, but you bring Kyler Murray in. Is he gonna mess that up? No idea. But at the same time, you got to show him off if you're going to try to trade him, bro, do you really no?
Cleveland's at Baltimore? Baltimore? Is this team is the Super Bowl represented from the a representative from the AFC staring in our face all this time Baltimore against Seattle yester day. If the team's traded punts twice on Seattle punted yet again. Baltimore went eighty one yards on twelve plays spanning the end of the first and the start of the second quarter, gus in from four to seven to nothing, Baltimore thirteen
oh six left in the second quarter. After the team's traded turnovers, Gino was picked by Gino Stone, then Lamar was sacked by Boye Mafe and fumbled. Seattle then went three and out. Then Baltimore went eighty four yards guss in from three fourteen to nothing, Baltimore two thirty nine left second quarter, fourteen to three. Game, Now fifty nine seconds left in the second quarter, You're like, well, this
half's gonna end. No teams traded turnovers again. First Lamart to Obj hit by Trey Brownie fumbles, then Bobby and Wagner recovered that. Then Seattle set up at Baltimore forty three with forty nine seconds left in the half. Three plays later, Gino sacked by Kyle van Noi heat fumbles. Broderick Washington recovers. Baltimore then set up at the Seattle thirty six with thirty three seconds left in the quarter. Leads to a Tucker thirty seven yard field well seventeen
to three Ravens at the half. Two thirty eight to eighty nine total yards advantage for Baltimore at half time, then twenty three to three after two Tuckerfield goals and two Seattle three and outs. Keaton Mitchell the speedster from forty out, thirty to three Baltimore. With twenty nine seconds left in third quarter, they'd add a Huntley, who was in for Lamar at that point, to obj touchdown, thirty
seven to three Baltimore. By the way Baltimore kneeled on it at the end, or it would have been worse on the scoreboard. That's your final thirty seven to three Baltimore over Seattle, who's a playoff contender and a top ten fringe, top ten Power ranked team. Lamar twenty one of twenty six for one eighty seven, no touchdowns, no picksy but sack once ten for sixty with a fumble lost on the ground. Keaton Mitchell nine for one thirty
eight in a touchdown they held Seattle. Baltimore did to six first downs, one of twelve on third and they outgained them five point fifteen to one fifty one, two ninety eight to twenty eight.
On the ground two ninety eight to twenty eight. This was Detroit all over. I mean, this was they were post This.
Just sounded like what we just read about Cleveland and Arizona.
Baltimore by four and a half.
Six Yeah, bad, guess six makes sense.
Think there are five and a half still out there and open Baltimore might go to the super Bowl.
Dude, like you don't trust Lamar in the playoffs the video, I don't trust them, But the way they run their offense, I like, right now more than guess. NFL Week ten coming up, it's skill Alexander's Kelly Bidlintle live from bar Canada at the d Back to that Baltimore thing for a second. So there's seven and two. They ought to be nine to Oh. They have no business losing the two games they lost. If I said to you right now, the common question that like non betters would ask of you.
Hey, who's gonna be in the super Bowl this year? Right now?
Bam, who's your Super Bowl teams? You're timing down Bengals Eagles for I think it's Bengals or Ravens Now in the AFC. I really do believe it's the Bengals. Of the Ravens.
I can't wait to it, and I still think it's the Niners in the NFC.
Well, I gotta think the Ravens are the team that we people sleep on and even off air we were just talking. You just can't buy into Lamar Jackson. I just can't.
Well, it's always driven me nuts because he's extremely talented. It's just, hey, it's kind of it's similar to Josh Allen in Buffalo. Right. It's the it's whenever Baltimore's had a good defense in a good running game, which they seem to be back to this year, more than we really thought they were going to be heading into the season. Right. It's just these games, you know. And I guess Dallas
would be a fair comp this year too. It's when they can play from ahead and Lamar doesn't have to they don't have to go into desperation mode with him throwing the ball a lot more, which opens him up more to turnovers and turnover plays. I mean that they just when they can control that part of the game, then they seem dominant and they seem hard to beat. No team has dominated good opponents like they have. No nobody, and I know I can't. There's no part of that
I can argue you. Even saying about how they could should be undefeated, I can't argue that at all. I absolutely can't argue that. It's just we have not seen we haven't seen Lamar Jackson really yet of in the big moment having make the big plays time and time again without making those turnovers. And that's what concerned.
We'll see if they have to get into that situation. Yeah, all right, let's reel off a few more here.
All right, we are into the late window. Four or five Eastern Falcons at Cardinals.
Four and five Falcons at Arizona one in eight. Now, by the way, those two adjustice season win totals. Plays that I gave out last week had good weeks. Cincinnati to the over on the Justice Saeson win total, Atlanta to the under. So hope people jumped on that. Atlanta Taylor Heineke in defeat twenty one of thirty eight for two sixty eight, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked
once in Atlanta's loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Arizona in that loss once again to the Cleveland Browns, Clayton Tune was eleven for twenty for fifty eight yards, no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked seven times. He carried the ball five times for twenty eight yards, did lose a fumble, and again Arizona had seven first downs. They were one
of twelve on third downs. They had fifty eight total yards, seventeen of which were passing, minus three in turnovers that led to plus fourteen Cleveland net points.
I mean, if this is Kyler Murray, then Atlanta will be favored by three.
But if this is Clayton Tune, it's gotta be more than that. I'm gonna say Atlanta minus three because I think it's I think they're talking like it's Kyler Murray.
It is Atlanta two and a half pretty much painted everywhere. I've seen a couple two's though, like they've like it's come down to two. I'm a little surprised about too. I don't know, let's put it this way, if it's Kyler, because I think you're right. I think what you just said with the numbers is right.
But if it's Kyler Murray, like I wouldn't bet this game with anybody else's money, Like I wouldn't want any part because what are you trying to do. If you're Arizona, are you trying to win a football game with Kyler Murray?
I don't.
I don't understand what's happening, So I don't on any part of it with a bet.
Yeah, yeah, I mean no, No, I think I think you said it right though. With the number, man, I just like, what would you need even in this situation. All right, Let's say let's say it's Clayton too. What number would you be willing to lay with the Atlanta Falcons up to.
Mm, not more than not more than a reasonable number, not more than like six at the top.
I don't. I don't even. I don't know if I could get on the other side of a field goal. I don't know if I could either. I just don't. Yeah, that's I think that.
I mean, but he was so bad yesterday. What's next?
Yes, Lions at Chargers? Oh there it is Lions of Chargers.
The game that we've that that our power rankings discussion were a couple of weeks ago spawned so much hatred about I'll say this is a Chargers sight unseen because they played the Jets tonight. So I think I couldn't decide between a pick him or the Chargers by a tick. I'll say a pick.
Them opened a couple of plays, pickum or Lions one. It is Lions one and a half basically everywhere, now, gil I did bet a Lions at a pickup? Did Lions at a pickup yesterday? I would love for the Chargers to win this game, just for everybody to shut up. I also think, though this is good, going back to that conversation from two weeks ago, not applicable this situation right because Chargers are on Monday night, Detroit coming off of a bye completely different.
Detroit has extra rest. My Chargers are on short rest, all right, and that.
Is definitely part of my handicap. I mean that, combined with Chargers not really having much home field, all that all right? Next up four to twenty five Eastern Giants at Cowboys.
Two and seven Giants five and three, Cowboys both losing yesterday, Giants against the Raiders after a three and out, Raiders won sixty seven yards all but one play twenty four yards on the ground. Myers in from seventeen seven to nothing.
Raiders.
Giants ensuing drive ends in a failed to his push on fourth and one at the Raiders thirty four, Jones stuffed for no game. Now the teams traded punts, but Daniel Jones went down wincing not once but twice, the second time on a non contact play. We'd later find
out it's an ACL injury. Tommy DeVito went in, and by the way, you talked about smashing Atlanta, this was the moment where the entire world smashed the Raiders when Tommy DeVito was announced in this game, because we saw what Tommy DeVito could or better said couldn't do last week. So everybody, including myself, smashed the Raiders at this point, and that proved to be a good bet because after another trade of punts, Raiders won sixty six yards jacobs in from two fourteen to five or six left the
second quarter. Then third play of the ensuing drive, DeVito picked by a meek Robertson, Raiders won sixty yards O'Connell to Trey Tucker for fifty immediately leads to jacobs in from one twenty eight one to nothing Raiders with one fifty seven left in the second quarter. Then DeVito was picked off a caron by Nate Obbs twenty four to nothing Raiders at the half they'd win at thirty to six.
Jones was four of nine for twenty five before he had to leave DeVito fifteen of twenty four one seventy five. They were minus two in turnovers that led to plus ten Raiders points. So that's the Giants. They're two and seven, and boy that that alternate under season win total is only a couple weeks away from cashing quite frankly on the Giant. Then there's Dallas. If it wasn't for Houston, this might have been the best game of the day. After Dallas three and out, Philadelphia starts at their own
twenty three. They went seventy seven yards converting a fourth and one at their own thirty two on a turks bush. Then they survived a strip sack by Sam Williams with the ball went right back to Hertz, and then on fourth and three at the Dallas twenty seven hurts to Goddard for fifteen, then gained well in from twelve on the next play seven and nothing, Philly five to forty five five forty six pardon me left in the first quarter. Then Dallas fourth and one at the Philadelphia thirty three
dak to Lamb for twenty nine. Next play to Ferguson for four out seven is seven, one thirty seven left in the first quarter. Then after Philly three and out, Dallas went eighty two yards Dak to Gavante Turbin from five out fourteen to seven Dallas eleven sixteen left in the second quarter. That's only the second lead change in a time Dallas game all season. Then Philly goes sixty yards brother Lee shove in from one out fourteen to fourteen five h nine left in the second quarter, then
seventeen to fourteen Dallas. Hurts, sacked by Parsons, took a direct blow on his left knee earlier in the play. That would be the halftime score seventeen to fourteen, but Hurts just keeps coming even if he's hurt. Third quarter, they're down three. Philly takes the opening drive seventy five yards Hurts DeVonta Smith for twenty nine twenty one to
seventeen Philly. Then after Dallas punt, Philly goes eighty seven yards, including it took his push conversion on thirty and one along the way, Hurts the Brown from four out twenty eight to seventeen Philly one ow eight left. Third quarter, are they running away with it? No ensuing drive ten ten to go, Dallas gets it to the one and a half fourth in goal. Dak to Luke Schoonmaker at the goal line, knead down about the ball being i'd say, with the ball about a half a foot short. No touchdown.
Then after a Philly three and out, Dallas fifty two yard drive Dak to Jaylen Tolbert from seven out makes it twenty eight twenty three. Remember the spread is three here, but the two point conversion no good because d stepped out of bounds before he lunged for the pile on bo balls about a foot shy of the goal line there. So between the Schoonmaker play at the goal line and now this two point conversion was six twenty three to go.
That's the game right there. Then a miserable three and out for Philly as Philly elects to pass on third and three instead of the Tookers push twice. Dallas starts at their own twenty six with four to forty three to go, get to first intend at the Philly thirty
one with two forty seven to go. Prescott then sacked by Brandon Braham, then by Jalen Carter two minutes to go third and twenty one, Dak to Lamb for thirteen, fourth and eight at the Philly twenty nine, one to twenty two to go down five, Dak intended.
For Tolbert incomplete.
Ferguson was wide open behind the d but Dallas has all three timeouts left, though, and on third down, Swift runs right into Brown fumbles, but Phillies Tyler's Dean recovers fumble luck forty six seconds to go. When Dallas gets
the ball back at their own fourteen. After the bun first and ten, Dak throws a deep Bradbury runs right into Gallop for a thirty six yard PI pick up, then at midfield forty seconds to go, ten yards to Ferguson with roughing the passer on Hassan Redick tacked on at the Philly twenty five with thirty two seconds to go, fourteen to Lamb, then First intended the eleven with twenty seven seconds to go. They trade encroachment and fall star penalties,
then Dak sacked by Josh Sweat. No timeouts left over the Cowboys. They don't get off another play until eleven seconds left on the clock. On the clock that's incomplete and tended Tolbert in the back of the end zone five seconds left.
Then, after another Dallas false start third and.
Twenty six of the twenty seven gotta get to the end zone, Dak to Lamb for twenty No good, not good enough, he fumbles anyway, ballgame, Eagles miraculous cover. You gotta be kidding me. Oh what the Eagles overcame to cover that?
I see.
I'm gonna say, Dallas, mine is fourteen and a half over the Giants.
You're off. It's up to fifteen and a half or sixteen.
I suck more guesses? Next skill, Alexander is Kelly Bidlin. We go through the guessing lines process because it has delivered winners. Something about this exercise and the first instinct has really translated through the years, but certainly this year, I just want to go back to that because I know we got a few more games to get to. But that Cowboys Eagles game yesterday, which again you had the Cowboys.
In this game. Yeah, those I had the Cowboys for those of us had the Eagles.
Again, let me just say, you have to recognize when you just get pure, purely fortunate.
Yeah, I didn't have a bet I did. I just had in the contest.
So yes, the Eagles were up twenty eight to seventeen, and it looked like, you know, maybe they're gonna maybe they're gonna win this game. You know, comfortably that did not come to pass. But you just think of the things that they had to overcome again, the Schoonmaker play at the goal line, which was initially ruled a touchdown but then was reversed, right, that was a fourth down play. Then the Dak two point conversion where he steps out before he could put the ball over the over the
goal line. Then the fumble, which will again just like in that Houston game, when you recover your own fumble deep inside your territory, your brain tends to purge it. But in the case of Steam here with the Eagles, that he lands on that fumble that third downplay, the Eagles are just trying it like and they and and Andre Swift runs right into aj Brown, the ball drops and Tyler stem pardon me, recovers that football. That's another thing, okay.
And then the Cowboys get the ball. You're like, okay, well they gotta go all the way down field. And then Bradbury just runs into gallop Hassan Reddick Roughs Dack. Next thing you know, like Dallas is in scoring position. He's the old baseball baseball phrase. The fact that they were able to withstand that again a bailout's Josh Sweat sack where the Cowboys had no time left and so they didn't get another playoff till eleven seconds were left,
and then finally won with five seconds left. By that time, they needed another false start. They needed twenty seven yards. They threw it short and ceed Lamb fumbled it anyway, but there were so many things in that game.
That had to go the Eagles way. Yeah, to cover the c Lamb. The one has nothing you can you wouldn't even count. Like people keep bringing that up like it belongs in the same sense. He threw it short of the end zone, Like what am I Yeah, it's hard for me to cut him side now. On the two point conversion, that was the tough one where he's live.
I thought he was in.
I thought he was in two and then and then it's one of those you see those replays and you're like, man, Dak like I know, I know, it's it's really easy for me to say sitting on the couch here. But it's like that's something you gotta be real careful with.
What was the game? I want to say it was the Thursday night game with the Steelers and the Titans where I actually texted like wish Nev and Will Hill. Have you seen a team of receivers talking about the Steelers now that have less sideline recognition than these guys have, Like they're always stepping out of bounds. That entire team is like there's a sideline.
He's really I.
Can't see what.
I can't see what's his name, gutneral Schesky anymore? Now he was on the Giants hour. I can't see him anymore without thinking about the kickoff tip today tap the toes in the sideline.
So the same question. The Eagles are eight and one, Cowboys are five and three. Again, Cowboys a bully that beats up on every team that's worse than them. Here, they should they have won, No, but they certainly could have maybe maybe should have. Do you think of the Cowboys any better than you did beforehand? So like Deck has been pretty good.
Glad you asked it this. Yeah, the Cowboys lost that game, and I'm more impressed with them sitting here today than I was heading.
I think so too, me too. That's the big takeaway for me in that game. And does Philly have enough because they win a lot of close games, whether it's Dallas or Washington, whoever, do they have enough to get to or and or win a Super Bowl right now?
I don't know. So the one I think I think I've been hurt is hurt. Yeah. I think I've been pretty clear about this, like on the show, like there are guys Hurts, Josh Allen, you know Watson that it's been either kind of stay away from or bet against for me, just because I know there's I know they're hurt. We just don't really know how much with almost all of them. But they're the one team that kind of keeps winning through it, right Philly, no matter what you
throw out them. Yeah, that's where I still believe in them, Gil because they do think as if as long as Hurts is able to get healthier, I think they get even better and we'll start to see them win a little bit more.
By Martin, see, I think remember there were those two weeks. I don't know which weeks they were. They were Week four or five or week five or six, whichever weeks they were where we came in here, We're like, wow, this product has been awful. Just from a viewing standpoint, I think besides those two weeks, the NFL has been awesome.
Awesome. Yeah, yesterday was the best Sunday.
I thought so too, And like, I think the fact that we don't know, like the fact that Kansas City appears diminished, the fact that Miami and Dallas are bullies, the fact that Philly, even though they're winning, feels a little less than last year's version, but that Burrow keeps doing Burrow things, that the Ravens are sort of lying in the weeds, That the Niners, everybody all, they're the most complete team. I certainly feel that way, but they had some injuries and so now they're five and three.
People seem I don't know if people have forgotten about the Niners right, Like, I just think we have a great stretch run, great second half of the season coming up.
Speaking of the Diners, would you like your line update? Yes, they're getting smashed this morning. We're up up to three. Oh, I guess three? Yeah. I remember I was saying there was two and a halves out there there was a lot of two and a halves. They're gone because the Niners are great, man, they're better footballs coming in. Yeah, look coming off by right. Deebo is supposed to be back. I believe for this game.
Ken Williams is a big one. Ted Williams is a big one. All right, Let's let's do the rest of these if we can. Are we still in the afternoon?
We are commanders at Seahawks, Commanders at Seahawks.
Four and five commanders. I have the alt season win totals over on the Commanders. I got to get them to eight and nine. Can they go four and four to the rest of the way. They're four and five now they're at Seattle. Who's five and three? Does Seattle feel fraudulent to you?
It does, dude to me?
How old yesterday? By the way, twenty nine to forty five for three twenty five in victory, I should say over the Patriots one touchdown, one pick, he was sacked three times. They outgained New England Washington did four thirty two to three twenty seven, and they at time of possession them thirty seven ten to twenty two to fifty Gino in defeat thirteen Kelly thirteen for twenty eight for one fifty seven, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked
four times, he lost the fumble and again. Seattle against Baltimore only had six first downs. They were one of twelve on third They were out game five fifteen to one fifty one, two ninety eight to twenty eight on the ground. The ground is supposed to be their bread and butter and out time of possession if you will, forty ozh four to nineteen fifty six. I put Seattle in no man's land five and a half.
Uh, that is where it opened about five and a half. Six. It is mainly six and a half's out there now. I did bet Seattle at five and a half.
Okay, Not only are these guesses like really easy this week, it sucks because literally I only like one game so far. Yeah, I laid the five and a half with Seattle.
I hear what you're saying. The thing is, it's just it's just Gino. We're really just talking about Gino. It's a you know, when when the Seahawks played well, we want we want to be like, hey, you know, I think of last year we forgot made us forget a little bit that Gino Smith is still Gino Smith. Like there are times where he's gonna lose a game for you, and I'm like, yesterday, the way that game started off, they just got they got destroyed in the trenches, like
there was I got so many texts about Geno. He sucks. It sucks, suck like so many times. There's a guy in his face right away. So I don't know.
I laid it with it, Uh with Seahawks, So you did lay the points? Yeah, laid five and a half. Okay, laid five and a half.
All right. I thought that I did think this number was gonna move their way too, all right. Sunday night, here's a thriller. Jets at Raiders.
Wow, another prime time barn burner right here, Jets sight unseen.
They played the Chargers tonight. The flex scheduling is still a thing, right, that's still an option?
Lex away, NFL, what are we waiting? We got plenty of flex options. I don't flex doesn't start this early? Does It doesn't start this early?
I thought it did.
Now Jets are four and three currently. That record will change tonight and the Raiders are four and five. That's why there's a two game difference because the Jets haven't played Raiders O'Connell and victory. Aidan O'Connell sixteen for twenty five for two nine against the Giants, Josh Jacobs twenty six carries ninety eight yards two touchdowns. Again, they were plus two in turnovers against what turned out to be the Tommy DeVito led Giants. The Raiders win it in
Antonio Pierce's debut thirty to six. Uh, Jets, real quick?
I forgot they adjusted this stupid rule. So's they can only flex two games betweens Week five and ten, and then eleven through seventeen. They can flex whatever, right, So that's what I was saying. So this is the last week where they have the constraint. But have they flexed anything yet? I don't know, right, so they should be able to hear. I would think this would be the one i'd flex out Jets minus two and a half on the road. Is I believe you are dead on Jets two and a half on the.
Road, bingo bango, Because Jets have the best unit, right, The defense is the best unit by far, So that's the handicap.
Really. Yeah, against Aidan O'Connell, Jets team so hard to bet on or bet against for me at least right now, because of that, right, the defense is so good. But then, Zach Wilson, this is a tough week.
Let's do the last one here Monday Night.
Monday Night Broncos at Bill's broc somehow the best of the three prime time games. Really good God.
Broncos coming off by the three and five Buffalo five and four. The Buffalo Bills are five and four after last night. Alan Josh Allen twenty six of thirty eight for two fifty eight, one touchdown, one picky sack ones eight carries forty four yards in the touchdown, but they were minus two and turnovers that led to plus three nets Cincinnati points. Yesterday they end up losing by six Buffalo minus seven. In the hook, I will say dg Ning ning.
Seven and a half, exactly seven and a half.
Let me tell you something. That might have been the easiest week of line guessing. That might have been the most accurate collective week of line guessing.
Every right, think, so, You've actually had a couple this year that were really close, But this one, that.
One is so easy to get through.
Yeah, when I was typing in your guests as a scorn. I was like this, I thought the same thing I was. I think this is where Gil might be the closest this entire year. Minnesota is the only thing I liked. I mean, that's the thing I like the best of the bunch was that that was the one where you had a different favorite, different favorite. I remember, we're still bouncing.
I could be talked into a couple others, but that's the big one. We'll talk survivor on the other side.
Who's your MVP at this point?
Guessing lines Week ten National Football League right here on a Numbers game at VSA, the Sports Vetting Network.
Numbers game on VSI. These Sports Vetting Network college basketball tips off today, Kelly, how me bet you got ten? Twenty twenty seven, and they're still time to get your copy of our annual betting Guide. This year's guide includes Matt Human's top twenty five rankings, who could be this season's Florida Atlantic, All thirty two conferences previewed, Wouldn't Award candidates, futures, and season long prop bets. The only way to get
the guy who's become a vcent Pro subscriber. Sign up now for just one hundred and twenty dollars get vsent Pro access to everything we do until May first. That's all college basketball season long, March Madness and beyond for only one hundred and twenty dollars. Sign up today at
vsin dot com slash subscribe. It's kill Alexander, It's Kelly Binlin live at Bar Canada at the d. By the way, to our question about Hobbs, you know, what does one think of because I refer to Joshua Dobbs as Joshua take too long to figure out an actual pull on Twitter, so I gave up.
You know what most people are coming back with? You said, oh, the natural or fast Infurioce Calvin and Hobbes.
Yeah, you're right, those are. That is what we're getting tweeted the most.
So we'd be awful on like family feud or match game. So we had to tweet sports pick magic. I know it wasn't your take, but it's not just gino. When you give up thirty seven points in five hundred and fifty yards and the other team takes a knee at the end to keep from completely embarrassing you more than just the quarterback. He's absolutely right. Yeah, sure, absolutely right about that, Jeff.
That game was still I think those games, when you talk the Lions game against the Ravens and the Seahawks game against Ravens, it's almost you can't you can't really evaluate much past the first quarter and a half because it just turns into a blowout territory. Yeah, they got dominated in the trenches. That's where it started, though.
It does run the risk of that. You like, then you take your your eye off the ball with the Ravens too, right, We're like, oh, you should be paying attention to just how badly they're crushing these teams, right, Jeff Levine. Oh, he's the ro Kwan Smith guy. No Watts, no other ego driven sacks, studs, just to wonderfully coordinate and design d steer it on field by leader Roquan Smith.
Up.
I will champion this until he gets the recognition he deserves.
And they're great. He's I mean, nothing he's saying is wrong.
Jesse Welch. Apparently all you need to do in the NFL in order to win is to sign a new quarterback every Wednesday and put them in straight off the plane.
It's a good strategy. It's working out for teams this year.
So I want to say one thing, so we as we go to our Week ten place, I like Minnesota best, but obviously we're gonna have to have five contest picks, and there's gonna be other bets in it. We're gonna be talked into other bets. So I'm just thinking what are right now? If you said to me you must pick three, right, Minnesota would be one of them. Based on the exercise we just went through. I think Pittsburgh would be number two. I hate to say it hosting green Bay.
What did you say? The line was three? Is that an even three on Pittsburgh? Let me see what we're up to?
Three and a half not as fun, but I think maybe Pittsburgh hoasting green Bay. And I hate to say it, but you know what number three is Dallas laying the wood against the Giants, Because couldn't you see Dallas winning that by four touchdowns?
We've seen it a few times already, right.
I have got I don't love those, but that's what my top three would be right now.
Let's see, I have bet Lions and Seahawks already. Lion's gonna pick them. Seahawks set five and a half so I guess those would be two of my answers. I have no idea the three filling out the other. The other three will be tough, that's for sure.
You really have no problem laying those points with the Seahawks against against Washington.
I could see that going. No, no, yeah, I think that they are and the Lions. I think there's a lot of these teams in the NFL where it is. Yeah, am I gonna am? I gonna really trust the Seahawks up against top level competition? Probably not? That was probably clearly this guy bet and I ended up on with them last week in Baltimore. I think them playing against the Commanders at home is a completely different story. Yep,
we say it often. I one week in the NFL to the next week is a very different story week after week.
So I don't hate either of them quite frankly.
Now one and then I bet, I actually bet the over on I bet over forty six on Texan, forty six and a half on Texans and Bengals.
All right, let's talk about MVP for a second. Well, first survivor, I'm just gonna go again. We're both out of it. Kelly and I have been long gone out of Survivor. As we mentioned at the top of the show, there are still in Circus Survivor pending the game tonight. There are eleven hundred and thirty eight entries left. Eleven hundred and thirty eight. This game hasn't even started yet. After week three, before I got bounced with my Washington pick against Chicago, I did map out who I would
pick every week. Sadly, besides that one loss, I'd still be in it too, which sucks because I'm rooting for a second loss, so I can be clear of it in my mind. Also, this past week was either New Orleans or Cleveland.
I probably split them.
This week is for me because I would have used Buffalo already and I have to save Dallas, So this week is Cincinnati for me. Cincinnati would would have been my Survivor play this week now at the time when you were mapping that out, Cincinnati hosting, by the way, uh once again, the Houston Texas Houston Texas. Yeah, but by the way, I don't love but like that would be my pick.
When you were mapping it. When were you mapping this out after week three? So what was Joe Burrow's status though? Oh? I mean that was what would you You don't think your answer would change on Cincinnati, I'm not saving them, No, I for what When I was going through them, it was like, okay, when is when is the most optimal time to use them?
Do I need to save them Cincinnati? I was like, I can get by the weeks where Burrow's getting healthier. Wait till week nine, play them at Houston. This is play them at home against.
Uston they got Obviously they're on the toughest division at football. They're gonna have some tough games coming up. I am rooting for me to lose one of these, just so I get. I don't know the mental thing, oh that one game.
Then, as far as MVP and the reason I bring this up again because obviously, again we said c J. Stroud Offensive Rookie of the Year. It's done, barring god forbid an injury.
It's his.
Setting records. Yesterday yardage for rookies matched it with touchdowns. But MVP continues to be fascinating. And the reason I bring it up again is because last week we had multiple guests on the show, and each one of them right, I'll just use two as an example. Before I could even finish the sentence, Kelly right with Drew Dinzik, it's like, oh, it's Patrick Mahomes and basically you were saying on his podcast he essentially is like, and if you don't think it's Patrick Mahomes.
You're you're wrong. No, no, that's not what he would say. He was just saying people hadn't been given him enough due credit, basically leading in weeks like it.
Phrased my way better, Eric Eager, Doctor, Eric Eager. Before I could finish the sentence, was like, Josh Allen, period, the analytics folks love them. Else from Josh Allen, Ah, you think either of those guys at the MVP, I don't like.
Do you think either of them leaps off the page as the MVY No, no, no, no, I don't off the page. I think that's why the odds are what they are right now to an updated MVP odds, Well, i'll give them to you right now.
Lamar's plus three fitty, and so's Jalen Hurts, and so's Patrick Mahomes. We have co co co favorites. Yep, yeah, I think that that says it all right. It's fairly accurately priced. TUA drops to plus six fifty and Joe Burrow, who we recommended on the show last week at twenty to one, is seven to one, and then Christian McCaffrey's fourteen to one. Tyreeth remains forty to one, Josh Allen twenty to one, Trevor Lawrence twenty to one, brought Purty
twenty five to one. Some people were floating Jared Goff last week. He's forty to one. Justin Herbert's fifty to one. Dak is fifty to one.
What if I told you? What if I told you there was a court back out there? Yeah? Okay, Who's played in eight games so not nine like a lot of these other guys have. Yeah, is still seventh in the league in passing yards, has thrown fourteen touchdowns and has one interception, and his team does not have a winning record, does not have a winning record, trying to think, I don't ever what are you so bad with the records as I am, because all we do is bet,
Like I don't care. I don't give what your win loss.
Know, I ca consult the standing that I tell you what the records are? Who are you referring to A A.
CJ. Stroud?
Okay, he's not winning MVP. Yeah, I know, but he's winning Rookie.
Of the Year. I mean, a lot of those guys were talking about his stats are right up there.
I just keep getting to the Lamar Jackson thing. Right in the same way that we're just staring the Ravens every staring at the Ravens every week. They're the only team literally that you can say they should be nine to zero, in the same way that we stare at them and we don't for whatever reason, we don't want to put them at the top. Are we also staring at Lamar Jackson in this MVP marketing saying the same thing? He's plus three fifty. I know it's not that sexy.
I'm not suggesting that it is, but is he like if they go, well't this? I mean, I guess then we could say this about Jalen Hurts too. If the Eagles or the who ends up with the best, right, If the Eagles go fifteen and two or the Ravens go fifteen in two.
Yeah, I don't know.
If they both go fifteen in two, that immediately, you know, nullifies the question because then you can't answer it.
But if one of them.
Goes fifteen and two, and they have the best record in all of football and they play the whole way through? Aren't they kind of the MVP off nobody else?
Yes? Yes, and it's that was largely Yes. Drew was bringing up the Homes when he was saying this, but his whole when he brought this up two or three weeks applies to Mahomes too. Two or three weeks ago, he brought this up where he thought, whoever finished with the one seed in the AFC he did that quarterback would be your MVP. And the only reason I'm saying it that way though, is because no one has stood out, so it becomes a tiebreaker. No, I completely agree, right
because I believe who has stood out. I believe it was Tyreek Hill till this past weekend, right, Like I believe in terms of you're just doing it based on historical performance.
Tyreek Hill ought to be your MVP. I mean, I guess we've already discussed that at nauseam. But Joe Burrow with an injury, they stink. Now he doesn't have an injury, They're awesome. I mean, you could make a case it's a.
Reason why he went from twenty to twenty to one to seven to one, right in over a weekend.
Yes, and by the way, Josh Allen, who is clearly not the MVP, but like, if you take him off the bills.
How bad are they? Exactly?
This is the most wide open MVP discussion we've ever had at the halfway market the season. And then there's Brock Purty chilling at twenty five to one, who's like, Okay, what if we were awesome.
In the end. My answer is this, I don't know to bet. I don't know if you forced me to bet, I wouldn't know who to bet on. Today. We've done all we can do.
Best bets is next. Enjoy from Vson these Sports Betting Network