Take it Down Man, No Down.
Man Friday at the first twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book podcast and the FL Betting Preview live from the d Our New Hope. We just did our last show. By the way, Kelly Bidlin to my right here at the d at Bar, Canada. Matt Brown joining us VSA's own Matt Brown. It's the Primetime Action Crew. The band is back together for an NFL preview.
Reunited and it feels so good.
Name the group, No idea, Come on, no idea, it's a duo. I don't know.
Matt mac got angry at me the other day for another song reference Peaches a Herb.
Sure, Peaches a Herb are two people.
Peaches is the girl Herbs the guy.
Quite quite possibly the worst rendition of that song I've ever heard, and I've heard some really bad one.
Well, all right, Well, off with the bang here Gil.
The tennis pods and the baseball pods are things that we do during the off season, but it's all about the NFL. The megapod will begin this coming Thursday, which I do with Todd Wish, Deem, Jeff Pearls and rotating guests. Matt has been kind enough to come on that show. We'll have to get Kelly on that show this year as well. And then Guessing Lines our tenth season with
Chrissy begins the following Monday for week number two. That's the standard football podcast schedule here beating the book, but NFL prev before that from the d with these two gentlemen. Thanks for doing this, guys, I appreciate it very much. It's a Friday morning and it's raining outside. What better thing to do than talk football? Can you think of anything that's right?
I cannot not pickleball in the rain, that's for sure.
Yeah, I just don't find it interesting. I know you love pickleball. You're still playing as much as you used to? Are you still? Are you still?
I'm not?
Okay?
So I'm trying to get good at the golf. I'm trying to get good at the golf. So that takes a lot of time, by the.
Way, a lot before we get into football. We may have broker to deal. I just want to suggest this for everybody who listens to Primetime Action in the past and know that people that know that Matt Brown has not kicked to this field goal or this field goal, two field goals, two field goals that he was supposed to do two years ago and still hasn't done it as a result of a bed at least two years ago. Matt, what is the deal you are brokering with Kelly?
This is now all on Kelly's plate. This is all we have to do. I will go and I will do the kicks. But in return, all I need is for our friend, the bearded one, Kelly Bidlin, to agree to go get spray fan. I just I wanted to get spray tanned. I want to he looks like spray tann. Okay, and we're going to get these kicks out.
Of the way.
And the kicks, just for those who don't know, are what did you agree to do?
Five?
I have five opportunities to make a forty yarder right footed, and I have three opportunities to make a twenty one yarder left footing.
Okay, you're crazy, first of all. And two this came up because we were watching college football while Primetime Action was on and somebody missed an easy kick and Matt's like, I can do that, and you were like, and you called him on that?
Yes, no, no, no, they passed on the kick.
Remember because their kicker got hurt, oh right, and they passed on They passed on go on kicking the field goal a twenty one yarder and instead decided to go for it on like fourth and fourteen or something. And I'm like, cand the punter really not make a twenty one yard field and that's what it was, and that's yeah, And then that's how it all came came to me.
And here we are two years later, we seven see a kick.
Yeah, but I have some conditions for this skill. I have some conditions.
I won an odds boost on my no on the twenty one and a half yard or with the left foot, because there's no way that's getting home. And I know all the action has been on the nose so far of this, so I want an odds boost on that. And then Matt better be accompanying me to whatever taming salon or whatever that we're going to, because I've never been to one in my life.
I'll be in the booth with you, buddy. Yeah, I'll be in the booth with you. Don't don't worry about that. I'll be in there with you.
This took a turn, and then we need a camera obviously, so so Isaiah's bringing a camera and Mike.
So that's what's going to happen, all right, So that's the way NFL.
That's where that stands. We are six days away from the beginning of the NFL season, finally, finally the Lions of the Chiefs first Thursday night football game, and I debated, like, Okay, how do I want to start a NFL betting preview this close to the season. Let's start with a question
that I've asked. Kelly knows this on a numbers game more often than than not with every guest, which is and Matt will start with you, what is your most off market, off consensus viewpoint of this season backed by a bet.
I mean, I guess that it's kind of sort of at least adjacent to all of this. Mine is that I think the forty nine ers have a real chance to be like mediocre this season, and I'm kind of backed that up just by a Seahawks future.
I have.
I have a Seahawks to win that division. I have a Pete Carroll to win Coach of the Year. I have different things like that. I mean, for me, I understand it is a loaded roster on both sides, of all, I do get all of that, but it is still the most important position in all of the NFL, and that's the quarterback position. And I don't have a ton of confidence that Brock Party is going to be able to replicate what we saw last year. I mean, this is a guy that wasn't even supposed to.
Be on the team.
Really, I mean, like when you're drafted that like, you're not even supposed to be on the team. You're not supposed to make the roster, You're supposed to be on the practice squad. So teams didn't have any game plan for this dude. They didn't have any tape on this guy. They were not familiar in the least bit with Brock Party.
And I guarantee you as we head into this season, they're very familiar with brock Party now in any tendencies that he may have shown in college or anything that he was doing during last season that was working, that that has been figured out at this point. And so I am a bit skeptical that brock Party is going to be able to replicate what we saw last year, And in turn, I think that that could have this team being far, like far far under expectation.
And with that, I'm back in the Seahawks in that division.
So Matt, real quick, does that mean you don't do you think they should have.
Dealt Trey Lance?
I actually thought they didn't have a good option in general, right, I mean, like I don't think. I mean, I think it's just a bad kind of trio and they went with what they feel is.
You know, you go with what's most comfortable, right.
The guy came in and he played decent last season, so they're gonna go with with what worked for him.
But yeah, I mean it's a for me.
I like, I really like what Seattle brings to the table anyway. And then couple that with the fact that I think that the forty nine ers would be down a little bit. So I think that's the most controversial decision, especially considering the Niners are what third or fourth when it comes to to Super Bowl odds?
Sure, what did you get the Seahawks to win the division at one number?
Yeah? So it's like, way way early.
I was talking to Kelly about this like a couple of weeks ago, So I mean I got an absurd number like four seventy five or something like that, But it was like, right, when they first opened and all that. So, I mean at the current number, I don't know if I would be loving it as much because I think it's down to like one ninety now or something one ninety five than that.
Yeah, it's not so off market now. I the one thing, and I no one loved the Niners more than I did last year. I backed it up with bets and obviously the uh, the the actual you know disaster that was the playoff game where Perdy got hurt and that Josh Johnson got hurt. I will say this, even even through his undefeat, did stretch seven and zero down the stretch with brock Purty mystery relevant. He threw so many passes that should have been picked. We Todd Wisham and
I call it, you know, the football equivalent. It's just a babit. Oh yeah, we call what interceptions that should have happened. I think Pro Football Focus backs this up with actual numbers that he threw. Yes, is that right, Matt, Yes, turnover worthy plays, turnover worthy place itch, Yeah, interceptions that should have happened. So and we'll see, we'll see.
That Seahawks number by real quick has swung back up it and is plus two thirty over a draft over at Draftking, so maybe a little bit more back into beedible ranger.
People before before he gets a Kelly's answer to this question how many teams? Because because it then calls to mind, okay, how many good teams are there actually in the NFC, which will be a theme of this, which is obviously the Eagles, Niners, Cowboys. I guess in some order, if I if I took away those three teams, who's the next best team in the NFC? I guess you would say the Seahawks.
Then I would say the Seahawks. But then after the Seahawks, I think if there's a precipitous drop off like at that point, like it wouldn't surprise me at all. If and I'm being serious and I'm even including the Bucks in this conversation, like it wouldn't be surprised me if any of the four teams won the NFC South, right, like at all?
That Like that wouldn't surprise me at all. If you look in the East.
If you told me that the Giants under day ball and bringing in Waller and like having happy and healthy Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley, if they got the playoffs again. Like I mean, I think there's a lot of this stuff where I wouldn't be surprised in the NFC at all. But I think there's a pretty big drop off from that point as far as confidence level anyway.
Because Kelly and I have talked about this at varying points during a numbers game, which is when people are considering yes, no playoff bets. The AFC is obviously stacked, but the NFC, no matter how you slice it, I guess the one team we can throw to the side is Arizona. They're the one team that you couldn't you
couldn't justify a yes bet on. But for the other fifteen teams, if you said you were going to bet them yes to make the playoffs, like I couldn't laugh at you, right, because there's a path for all of them.
I think I'm there on the RAMS these days too. I don't think I could better.
Yes, I might be with you too, Yeah, yeah, I think the RAMS might end up being kind of fire sale territory as we get to towards the trade deadline, they need to break it down to build it back up. So but outside of that, I agree with this with the statement that you just said, like any of these other teams, could you know, again, could Jordan Love actually be good the Packers?
He could? Could Could this hype around the Bears and all that be true? It could? You know?
And listen, I don't think that it's out of the realm of possibility for the Commanders to to, you know, find something under Sam Hall and those skilled position players that they have.
And listen.
Yeah, there's gonna be some regression to the meme, but are we really sitting here going to say that the Vikings can't make the playoffs and out of the NFC North.
I mean, like, you know, it's this, this, These are such great points. That Vikings point is great because it does become like sports casting one oh one for people to immediately say, oh my god, they won so many close games, and then the next the way that our brains are wired. The next thought means, so therefore the pendulum must swing completely to the other end, right, and there's no guarantee of that happening none at all. We
say this for baseball pitchers or whatever. It might regress some it doesn't mean that it's going to go the completely opposite way. So I'm totally with you on that. The uh, I think Sam Howell might actually be really good. And the Jordan Love point, which I've made a million times on the radio side, but I haven't on this podcast obviously. The summer is Kelly's sick and tired of
hearing this. When we were kids, these quarterbacks got to hold the clipboard, as we used to say, for years, and when they got to hold the clipboard under the same coaching staff. And I'll use Washington again as my favorite example because that's the one I grew up on. If you got to do that more often than not, you turned out really good. Mark Rippen did that. He ended up being a Super Bowl MVP. Stan Humphries ended up doing that. He ended up going to the Super
Bowl with the Chargers quarterbacking them there. Trent Green held one for years, he ended up who knows if it for his injury. Maybe he runs the Greatest Show on Turf instead of Kurt Warner. So Jordan Love might actually end up really good because he's been under the same coaching staff, he's been under the tutelage of a Hall of Famer, and for Packers bets, the way that I
chose to do it. We'll get to I didn't mean to get to this first, but I ended up betting them by proxy with Matt Lafleur's Coach of the Year at almost sixteen to one, because I figured if they're any good, that's maybe the path to take. He's pretty much a good call for Coach of the Year.
Yeah, and I think I should probably be adding on to that one because the way that I chose to bet that, And I think you could think the same way in the NFC South too, Matt.
I think we you and I have discussed this a little bit, but the.
Like I did a small bet on the Packers to win the division because Jordan loves such an unknown, right, I do think there is a I think this is a team that can have a pretty high ceiling, but like, if he sucks, this floor could be pretty low, right, So I'd rather take a swing on it on a just for them to win the division when I do think the division is more up for grabs than what the odds indicate, more so than betting one of those yes yes to make the playoffs, right, I do think
there is a reality where they missed the playoffs completely. So I think that's a way to think about it. NFC North end, NFC South a little bit. And if you could tie in, yeah, a Coach of the Year or something like that, I think that's a great way.
Are we comfortable with hill distance between us? Are we liking this? We like this distance?
Well, we'll have to see you on Monday when I have to start talking to the crew too.
But yeah, justil to put a bow on your point, right. It's like, and we actually mentioned this back in the primetime Action Days whatever. It's like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert broke our thinking about quarterbacks as young guys like they So everyone thinks you're just supposed to step in and be all pro and like basically start, you know, getting the bus ready for the Hall of Fame. And it's like, that's just not how it used to happen, right,
It's not how it used to work. And you look at some of these guys, and certainly the packers' organization thought enough of Jordan Love to trade back up into the first round to come get this dude. And yeah, they still had Aaron Rodgers, so they're not gonna have They're gonna play him over Aaron Rodgers. But I mean, you still have an asset here that they that they value. So to think that he can't be a good quarterback
just because he didn't play immediately is pretty wild. And listen and even the Sam House situation, right, I mean, like he he is a guy that was highly thought of.
It just had a down seat.
He had a down season, you know, in his last season in college. But had he come out the year before, he would have been a borderline first rounder. So I mean, like, there are these guys that it's just because they didn't start immediately and play immediately and go out and wow everybody immediately, that does not mean that they can't have success in in the NFL.
Totally totally agree. We Uh, we tend to be a pretty reactionary, pretty short term, reactionary kind of uh sports fan, you know, group of people to begin with as American sports fans and as betters. That'll get you in trouble.
Uh.
The same question for you, Kelly, what what do you believe is the bet that you have that is the most off consensus, the most contrarian if.
You well, according to the the vs In NFL Betting Guide, where I'm heads up on this bet with.
With multiple people, with everybody.
I guess, I guess it's the Steelers under nine wins where I am under nine on Steelers.
Are you aware of any Steelers stats that I might be able to share with you? No?
What you got?
I am told that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.
Oh never mind, let's just said at this Poddle leaf net right, I'm going to guess, and look, do I think the Steelers. There's so much of this And this is why you led with the NFC conversation with the yes, no playoffs, because whether you could find one, two, three teams in the NFC where you could get a nice plus price on making the playoffs that we know we're gonna hit, we just don't know which teams they are, right, Okay,
the AFC's jam packed. This is this is not so much a complete fate of the Steelers, of more of this the reality of what is this conference and what is that division? And yes, I am a guy who is my opinion hasn't changed at all. In the Bengals, I think they're gonna be right there competing for a Super Bowl this year. And I think the Ravens are gonna be better, and I think the Browns are gonna
be better. So the they're stuck in the division where I just think by default they're gonna be coming in last place, and ask them to get a get not only to a winning season, because at least I've got that nine as a push, not only get to a winnings, to get that ten wins for me to get beat, for them to go ten and seven, I think is asking a lot for a team that, Yes, do I expect them to be better to I expect can you pigot Naji G Harrison these guys to get a little bit better?
Yes, I just think we're asking.
A ton of this team to hit that ten win mork in this division and in this conference in which they play. And so that is my most contrarian bet for sure.
I'm gonna go now with mine. As I'm about to spit it out, I'm realizing I'm contradicting myself in a little way because I just got through talking about how the Vikings doesn't mean that all of those close wins is gonna immediately turn into they're gonna lose all those I'm alternate low regular season win total on the Giants. I bet under six and a half at plus one
eighty five. And part of my thinking is contrary to what I just said about the Vikings, is they aid so well between you know, in the red zone last year,
both offensively and defensively. Between the twenties they were got awful, especially on defense, but they were absolutely balls out great in high leverage situations that allowed them quite frankly, I think Brian Dabole won a Coach of the Year award largely based on those high leverage situations for the Giants, and they were able to win a lot of them. By the way, they were eight and four in one
score games. So even if you say, okay, well maybe that goes to six and six, whatever it is, it was really their performance on the field for most of that You when they when they went out to the seven and one record, I believe it was seven and one. That's what their hallmark was. So, you know, does that happen is it? Does that mean that it's gonna change this year? I believe it will to some degree, and I think with their schedule there is a path where
this really goes bad for them early. It's not quite as bad as the Jets early schedule, which is just the gauntlet of all gauntlets early in the year. But I got the Giants alternate low regular season win total here at circa understand and a half plus one eighty five, And I think that's as contrarian as I get in terms of my preseason. Are there any picks? Are there any bets you've made, Matt, that you've that you've made, and you're already having doubts about.
Uh not really Like I so, I mean a couple of minor are fairly chalky that I got in there. I mean, Eagles to win the East, Jags to win the South, you know, like like I've got that stuff in there. I did go in pretty hard, I guess
early on the Vikings to win the NFC North. And maybe if that was one that's in the account that maybe I'm questioning just a tad But honestly, I'm I'm not like buying in that, like this is just the Lions Division, no matter what, right I'm I'm not kind of like, I'm not like getting there on that, Like it seems like everybody wants to just hand this over to Dan Campbell and and this Lions team, and like I guess, Gil, you and I are old enough to
remember that their quarterback is still Jared Goff. Yeah, like one, and like one good season isn't gonna like make me just like completely forget about the other terrible seasons with Jared Goff and all his bad decision making and all the stuff that he's done along the way. So I have the Vikings for the North, and it was a little bit of a price play. I just thought it was a little absurd that the Viking that the Lions
were just so heavily favored in that division. So I don't know, I mean, I guess maybe that one, but I don't have a ton that I'm really regretting.
Well, that's good. Let me just seizon the Jaguars one, because I know Kelly has that as well. The Jags to win the AFC South, and you guys obviously got better numbers than exist now. But for those listening and are like, oh wait, how high, Like what would you lay on that? Because they're obviously in a division with the Texans, with the Titans, with the Colts, and obviously the Colts have had an off season drama with Jonathan Taylor. He's at least out for the first four weeks, if
not more, they appear. I mean, we talk about, Okay, in the NFC, it's you know, whatever order you like, Eagles, Niners. Maybe you throw in the Cowboys, maybe you throw in the s AFC Chiefs, Bills, obviously the Bengals at the top, and then you'll throw in the Charges. This is the year where Kelly actually is going is making Chargers bets to say that, guys, But like, the Jags actually have this path as much as you think, and the Jags
aren't in that tier. They're in such an easy division, which is obviously six games right there, and then they have you know, it's one of the easier schedules in the NFL. Couldn't they end up? Like if I came to you at the end of the season for the future and I said, guess what the Jags had the best record in the NFL, would you think I'm I'm ridiculous.
Yeah, absolutely, it could happen.
There is a minus. There are minus one fifty fives available. There's it's minus one fifty five still in draft kings right now. That that's about a sixty percent, right, sixty sixty one is sixty two so like whatever sixty is percentage something like that for them to win. I think they win this sixty percent of the time very very very often. I think they win this like seventy percent
of the time very often. So I think the minus one fifty five is still it's still a really good number on this team, because again, if the only threat is the Titans, and I think we can all comfortably feel like the own threat is going to be the Titans, there's going to be some growing pains for Anthony Richardson. We know that this Texas team, while not completely devoid of talent, it's a lot of young dudes, right Like, so they'll probably be decent next year and maybe that
third year of CJ. Stroud they can actually kind of look and try to get into the playoffs.
But it's not going to be this year.
And so if the only threat is the Titans, they have absolutely no financial commitment to Ryan Tannehill after this season. If they look up and this team is like it's kind of like coming off the rails a little bit. Why wouldn't you go to Will Levis You already you drafted him in the second round.
Why wouldn't you like make a switch.
And like go ahead, and and if that's the case, then he's gonna have growing pains in those final five six games of the year whenever they decide to play him, whatever that might be. Does it go really bad early on and you realize, hey, we need to break this down and you try to get whatever you can get
in return for Derrick Henry. There's just a lot of ways for this to kind of go south, I think for this division outside of the Jags, who again are going for it, right, I mean we know that for sure, like this is they're going for this year, and so I think one five is still a very bedable number for them in the South.
Oh that's a great number. Yeah, fifty five, Yeah, it's not. I mean, one fifty five still around. I was just trying, you know, trying to think what number would I go up to.
Yeah, I think one's seventy.
What what's seventy you're talking about apply probability of sixty three percent.
I'm with Matt. I think that it's the I think.
There's a sixty five seventy percent chance these this team wins that division. It's we look at it a lot. I look at it a lot like We've talked about this before sometimes with golf, Matt, where it's it's the I can cross two teams off almost right away.
Well, you know with the Texans and with the Colts.
So I'm playing a head to head matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
And there are I.
Mean, through the whole list of things that Matt just talked about, which is yes, a large part of the bet.
Ryan Tannehill still just sucks.
So, like you know, if they want to have a if they want to have a mediocre five hundred team and stick together with that core down the stretch, go ahead. I still don't think you're beating the Jaguars in that division. And look, Jaggs out of divisions, out of division schedule is not easy, Like you know, they had to make that pretty tough with them having won it last year.
But you pick up at least you pick up a couple of those wins.
Man, I think this Jags team that's my favorite bet uh so far this offseason is Jackson win that.
You have one, you regret one.
I don't know if I'm gonna go regret, but I'm feeling way way less comfortable about would be my would be my small shot on Panthers to win the division in the NFC South, because I will say Matt kind of hinted on this.
I think early on. I'm coming around a little bit.
We talked a little bit about this on a numbers game yesterday we went through week one lines. I'm coming around a little bit on the I think there could be some value in betting the Bucks early. And yes, is there a chance they trade off some pieces or something down the road. Yeah, But if you're gonna hang big plus numbers for them early, they still have some talent there that that I think I can get the job done if I'm getting so I'm catching a touchdown
plus in games early on. So I'm not betting them in the futures market. But I guess maybe the Panthers I would have dialed back the bet on a little bit, but that would.
Be the only one.
And Gil one nice point on the Jags, just like their win total sitting at nine and a half, but it's juiced to like minus one forty on the over. I would just rather play them to win the division and pay the extra fifteen cents because like as bad as I think the other three teams are going to be could they win this division at nine and eight? Absolutely right, And so it's only like fifteen more cents to get them to win the division.
I'd rather just go that way than to bet them over on the win total.
Have you bet any awards markets?
Yeah?
So I did bet Old Pete Carroll for Coach of the Year. And this is just again on my affinity I think for the Seahawks team kind of up and down. If you look at their roster and what they were able to accomplish last year, their roster's better on both sides of the ball this year for sure. The addition of Jackson Smith and Jigba don't I know, you know,
because we kind of follow that stuff more heavily. But for the people out there that don't follow college football as as much as far as talent goes, what this guy is going to bring to this offense and what he might open up for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as well, there really is gonna be no excuse on the offensive side of the ball.
Really just going to be on the defense.
And you look and they it's not the legion of boom, but they drafted very very well on defense and they've got like some young guys that were really really good last year and now they've got a year of experience. They go in, they draft Witherspoon at corner, who I thought was an absolute stud coming out this year as well. I think that this is a I think this is
a team that can really take that next step. And that's what they do in these Coach of the Year awards, right It's like that it's the team that really takes the next step, like you're never gonna get like it would take the a.
Chiefs or an Eagles or whatever.
Like they'd have to go sixteen to one or seventeen and zero for Andy Reid or to win the Coach of the Year because they're expected to do super well. It's usually these teams that kind of take that next jump. And so like a nine win Seahawks team, if they can come out and win eleven or twelve games and maybe even win that division over the forty nine ers, I think that's gonna put Pete Carroll squarely in the discussion.
And he's so long gil right now, you can find like twenty five, twenty eight, thirty to one, like you really only need him to kind of get head to head with another coach, and then you can lock in a profit no matter what, right. And so it's like if you as long as they play it down to where it's basically gonna be him and somebody else with that long number, you're gonna be able to lock in a nice little chunk of change as it is. So I do have Pete Carroll in there and feel pretty good about it.
Actually, seventy one year old Pete Carroll.
By the way, I know, Seahawks Week one was actually a bet I was getting ready to make after that Cooper Cup news came down yesterday.
It looks like his reaggravated hamstring injury a.
Little bit but news coming down today as well, No Jabal Adams, he's been already been ruled out for Week one, and then Witherspoon hamstring unlikely to play week one as well. Just a little bit of Seahawks injury news as I saw that earlier today. So I don't know, I'm a little bit more wishy on that, but I was getting I was finally getting ready to make a week one bet, and I saw that come down.
Kelly and I were doing Week one. We just went through each game and I ask a questions on the magapot every week, you know, what game do you want no part of? Like half the schedule, we want no part of Gon Already.
I take it easy in Week one as it is anyway, right because it's kind of like I've taken my positions on teams that I really like with typically with preseason bets as it is anyway, so like I don't feel the need to kind of like immediately rush in and double down on like the unknown, like having not seen
these teams actually play real football yet. So it's like, yeah, I've already kind of like taken my position on the Jags and taken my position on the Eagles and all the things like that, and so I'm okay with with kind of you know, I'll have one or two, but I probably won't have a very big schedule, I mean a very big log there for Week one.
Do you do contest or Survivor or anything like that? Man, do you participate?
Yeah?
Yeah, I got one. I do one millions and I did three Survivor this year, so I'm gonna do one. So I look, the first year I did three different millions, and then last year did two, and then I came to the conclusion Gil, and this is gonna hurt.
I don't want to. I don't want to hurt. Yeah, yeah, I don't want to.
I don't want to offend anybody over there at the d N Circa and all this and aver like, because I know you won't people to have more entries, but it's like it's hard enough to find five games every week that you actually have any sort of confidence level and whatsoever. So like I was like, what the hell am I doing with two and three entries in these things? Like, oh what further, why am I doing this?
Yeah?
When I when I give the thousand dollars for my millions, I'm literally like, it's the closest I ever come to and here is my donation. But I just it's just I there's no way, I mean, five a week, exactly what you said, who has naturally five forget leans even best bets on a given week? Uh? And Survivor I have a sort of contrary and opinion again to your point of I apologize to Derek Stevens in advance, but you know there's a there's a max of ten now
in Survivor. Some people even exceed that by being creative. I got five last year. I only have five this year again because I do believe there's a point of redundancy in Survivor. Like I think if you have exponentially more more entries, you just play it the same way and you just eliminate them faster. So a lot of people are like, well, there might be some people listening to this who are like, what are you talking about.
You want to have multiple entries by Thanksgiving? Yes, that is the object, But I don't believe it's a function of how many you start with. I believe it's a function of how you play the game. And so I think you're just haphazardly spending more money on random extraneous entries in Survivor, and inevitably there was going to be two or three people that have multiple entries come Thanksgiving, right right, So I don't know, that's my thought on
that we'll get to. I just want to throw out some bets and you can riff on these two Kelly after and give yours. I did say I have Matt lafleuor Coach of the Year. I believe if Jordan Love is good. I believe if the Packers win that division, Matt Lafleur looks Roses at the departure of Aaron Rodgers, first NFL head coach fired, which was available. I don't know if this was a offshore, if this was a circa.
I went with Matt Eberflus of the Bears at fifteen to one because I figure, if it doesn't start well for the Bears, and I don't know that it will or won't, but if it doesn't, I think the heat will come quickly on him if the Justin Fields thing doesn't leap off the ground. Last team to record first win. I went a little off the grid. This is sort of my my NFL draft part. Duh. This was the first NFL draft where I got crushed, and much of that was They're never gonna draft this short guy number one,
They're gonna draft CJ. Stroud, and so the Panthers obviously did draft Bryce Young and by the way, still short. I have last team to record first win the Panthers at fifteen to one, because I think there is a I think there is a scenario. I'm not I'm not buying into it yet. You have some awards and some.
Props season I have zero awards. Yes, I have props.
I have zero awards, but just talking about them real quick, I think you guys picked the only market that I could even consider a bet, and I think that i'd probably and I might end up doing to splashing a little either, you know, either with the Packers were with the Seahawks Coach of the Year. I think you guys
are thinking the right way. The other one I wanted to turn the turners around with you guys on though, do you have any feel or even a lean when it comes to MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year?
I think MVP. Just to answer that part, I don't think there's a bet there because I think the guys at the top are exactly who they should be. It's kind of my feeling on all the markets, just maybe maybe so right like, so you're right because defensive Player of the Year, it's what Micah Parsons.
It's Parsons, Garrett TJ.
Watt, Nick Bo's the usual suspect y right, So I mean, if you have conviction on one of the last year I had Michael Parsons plus six fifty, I was this is the easiest ben in the world. This is gonna cast no problem, and then all of a sudden not at all, right, Right, So what your point is a great one. There are certain markets where yeah, we all love Patrick Mahomes, but do you really want to bet him at what six or seven to one or whatever
it is seven to one to win MVP. I don't know how you feel about what Kelly was saying.
Man, yeah, no, it's so I was.
I did this kind of like bit specifically on Joe Burrow, and you'll know that, like nobody loves Joe Burrow more than me, but like his number is not going anywhere, right, I mean it's it's like, so, why don't you see what this calf looks like after a few games and like cause, I mean, dude, he could like plant one time and like that calf injury could it could happen. I mean, it just doesn't make a lot of sense for me at the top of the board for sure,
from an MVP standpoint. If you wanted to go way further down the line and like take a couple of dart throws, I mean, if you wanted to do the the Geno Smith stuff of the world and the Trevor Lawrence stuff.
In the world.
I mean, like, I don't hate it, I guess, but just not something really for me. I think the only bet that you can assuredly do not make unless you just want to light the money on. Just send the money to us and we will put it to better use is Deshaun Watson MVP, because I can assure you.
I can assure you I got a better I assure you, yeah that if this is a human voted award, unless he throws for seven thousand yards and seventy five touchdowns, he is not getting MVP.
Not happening.
I have a better way for you.
I heard your money.
I heard someone advocate Deshaun Watson for Comeback Player of the Year, to which I said, oh no, no, no, no, think about what he's coming back from. Could you imagine that? Look, wait, what's he coming back from? Uh allegations? Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, he's not winning that. By the way, come Back by the.
Year with sixty to one there and thirty to one MVP, I feel like that's accurlate. Actually stop it. At least twice. As a bunch of chances when he come.
Back Comeback Player of the Year, you would have to add you'd have to add twenty zero.
There's no way.
Because at least at least with MVP, he could, he could play his way into it the most immaculate season in the history of the world, and like if they didn't vote it for him, then it would just be like the most obvious snubbing ever or something like that.
So like he, like I said, he could, he could.
Throw for sixty five hundred yards and like sixty sixty five touchdowns and then it'd be like, you can't, you can't not give it to him. But yeah, comeback player, no chance, no chance.
Yeah, these I'm just scrolling down the MVP odds here.
This is it's not exciting.
It's becoming tough, because how the hell does Trey Lance have shorter odds than Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, anybody's starting in the NFL should have shorter odds than Trey.
Lance, but he's in there at fifty to One's third.
Kelly, you answered, as far as like offensive rookie the year, I mean, I think the pricing is pretty accurate on Jon Robinson when you looked at like this guy's basically never going to come off the field, and so his counting stats, Yeah, are gonna be ridiculous, right, I mean, like there when he's not lined up in the backfield and they do go without you, Like he's gonna line up in the slot and he's gonna play slot receiver.
It's like he's going to have a ton of catches, a ton of receiving yards, a ton of rushing yards. He's probably gonna be their goal line guy, so he's probably gonna get the counting stats from the from the rushing st of g I think betting against him is almost just betting on an injury.
And he's plus two fifty plus two seventy five, you're as not betting on that though, right, like plus two seventy five running back.
Yeah, that's why I think that market is all.
But like I wanted to take a Yeah, it's like if you wanted to take one of the three quarterbacks and like just hope that one of them hits, I guess you could go that route.
But even the prices on that is all that.
Enough. Yeah. Yeah, back to comeback player of the Year. I know, obviously it's not gonna be de Shaun Watson. We were, you know, we were saying tomorrow Hamlin. Literally, there's never been any precedent for this. The man almost died on the football field, and we were saying the off season, what was the comment we settled on it if he if he makes one play, he should be
the comeback player of the year maybe. And you did have a pushback at because I said, if he just shows up, yeah, yeah, yeah, and he said, no, he's got to make one He's got to make a tackle or something. All right, So he's got to make one tackle. But but I know, we we sort of had that exchange.
Are we fooling ourselves? Like, are we couldn't possibly be that we are that short term of a memory that there actually is somebody else in there that if they did something special, you'd be like, well, actually, this might not be the worst bet in the world.
I mean, look, step one has happened with Hamlin already. He made the fifty three.
Like there was at least a question as to whether he might get cut. It's like step one of the process.
You have already. Could you imagine that.
Pr backlash on.
That sorry tomorrow he gave it a good run.
Yeah, no, I was I was advocating at least a little bit for Bryce Hall until the until the Dalvin Cook signing, and so now I don't think that that is as sexy for sure, because now I mean he's gonna get at least what thirty of his carry siphoned off by Dalvin Cook. There is a narrative and since this is a narrative deal, like there is a narrative to John Metchi, but it just depends, like it just depends on if he is able to put up like some numbers into what is probably going to be a
bad Texans offense. But like there is at least a narrat there with all with that right coming horrible injury and then not Hodgins from Pomar. I mean, like there's there's like a narrative there, at least for him. So twenty eight to one I thought was at least fairly interesting for him, But there is there is limitations in the Texans offense for sure.
Yeah, that was the old I think I just looking at it, right, I think that's the only other one I would even think of.
That's the only acceptable the person to supplanting, right.
And shout out to Jeff Parlay Parls because he was the first person I've I heard bring that up, you know, months and months and months ago at this point, and I know other people have discussed it.
But battle leukemia by the way, just to be clear.
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, Like I think there's a chance.
I mean, if if he has a significantly better receiving season when it comes to stats than what DeMar Hamlin's able to do defensively.
Yeah, I think he's in the mix.
So I don't think I think anybody grabbing a twenty eight to one on him, I don't mind that.
But but I guess what we're saying is, if Russell Wilson has this amazing bounce back season, he's not winning Comeback Player of the Year.
We agree, Yeah, okay, uh no, I don't really get to tu to one either. So behind Hamlin, who's actually going.
To give the praise to Sean Payton?
Like it's not gonna be like they're like they're gonna say like they're gonna say, like, oh, look, Hackett was so terrible. Here comes Sean Payton and then he reinvented Russell Wilson, right, like, like Sean Payton gets that love instead of.
Russell will Since since you bring it up, is it possible that in Hackett and Urban Meyer. We have just lived through maybe the two worst head coaches in the history of the National Football.
Leag Pretty pretty close. Yeah, Like I'm.
Trying to think it pretty close, right. I know Jets fans would say rich co tight back in the day, but this was pretty happy. Speaking of the Jets, since they obviously dominated all the headlines in the offseason with Aaron Rodgers and they were on hard knocks, they have a brutal for six games to the season, brutal. Where do you stand on them? Matt? Like? Are you bullish? Are you bearish? What's your deal?
I've been down on them pretty much all all off season and and mainly because of what you just mentioned.
I mean, it is it is one.
Thing to add a future Hall of Famer first ballot quarterback, and I think that that is definitely going to make this team better, There's no question about that. However, you still have to play these others. I think that division with the Dolphins and the Bills, that's four games that are gonna be very difficult.
I'm not really very high on on the Patriots, but.
I mean there's there's four games are gonna be super tough and as every other part of that schedule is just so so so rough.
This is I'm sorry, this is their first six before the bye just a just a pachers what you're saying? Home buff Home, Buffalo at Dallas, Home, New England, Home, Kansas City at Denver in the elevation home Philadelphia, Oh my god.
And then by the way, you yeah, you come you get that bye, you come out. What if the Giants are actually not right? So then now you go Giants and the Bill that's right, yeah yeah, and then and then Bill's Dolphins, right, and like with the with a with a Raiders game sandwiched in between. So it could be a there's a non zero chance that this team is like not only under five hundred by the time we get to week twelve, but like well under five
hundred by the time we get to week twelve. And again, like, I don't think that that's like out of the scope of what can realistically happen. This isn't one of those Hey, Matt throw out a statement in hyperbole and everyone like per clicks like, no, that's not what I'm doing. I honestly think that there is a chance by the time we get to week twelve, this Jeff team could be under five hundred and maybe even a couple games under five hundred.
Yeah. The other one with.
That is I think everybody should temper the air, like to Aaron Rodgers expectations a bit, because I still think, I mean, call me crazy if you want. I still think this team is going to recognize that they had a great defense last year. You obviously you got Breeze Hall,
but you felt the need to add Dalvin Cook. Like I do think this is a team that's gonna be pretty balanced offensively, Like I think they're gonna lean on their defense, Like I don't think it's gonna be hey, Aaron Rodgers, like go out and sling the ball around like.
We need you know, we need you and you alone.
To save this whole season. I don't really know that they're in that spot.
They go, like, listen, Garrett Wilson, I think is an awesome player, and I like all this, But like, I have been looking pretty pretty hard, and I think I'm gonna I was waiting to see if, like the Jets fans, that everybody would kind of pump up his totals and stuff for the season. But like I'm looking at the under one there's a lot of mouths to feed there
in that offense as it is anyway. And then second, if you go back and look, so the twenty twenty Packers, right, and who was their offensive coordinator, and if they know Howcket, they were dead last in situation neutral pace. The twenty twenty one Packers thirty first in situation neutral pace.
The twenty twenty.
Version with Hacket gone was twenty eighth in situation neutral pace. So Aaron Rodgers just operate slowly, like he is a deliberate dude who likes to get up to the line, and he likes to look at the defense, and he likes to call audibles he likes. So I think they're going to run fewer plays than most teams out there.
And then you add what Kelly said, and then you add what Kelly said with the defense like they might not be looking up at like like very many deficits are like you know, where they have to play past and up that tempo and throw a lot. And so I just think, like, you know, some of the unders on some of these offensive players on the jet side is the way to look as well.
It's interesting, Yeah, I think I think unders on the games too, right, we laid out the tough schedule, like, I don't think that. I don't think the Jets are gonna I don't think they're gonna be horrible. I don't think we're gonna get blown out by these teams. But okay, you're playing against Kansas City, Like, what are you trying to do? You're trying to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field for as long as you can just because you have Aaron Rodgers. Now, I don't think that changes that
at all. Right, So it's I, yeah, I think all of that I would be. I haven't bet any of them, but I think anybody looking at player props season total long unders on a lot of Jets things. If it has to do receiving or passing, I don't think it's a bad play.
You bet other stuff, Kelly, What else did you bet here? Yeah?
Yeah, I uh, let's see what else do I have?
I do have a Chargers, Yes, to make the playoffs.
There you go. This is the year.
Minus what fifteen. I'm on board for that one. I am.
We all had our year doing this, we all.
I'm so glad you've backed me up at what at least saying that cause I'm just I can't look at that roster.
That was last year. It last year, I know, I know. Do we think Brandon by the way, do we think Brandon Staley? I know, because when we were doing Primetime Action, we were correct me if I'm wrong, You'll correct me
if I'm wrong. We were Brandon Staley guys. Yeah, we thought, we thought And then like the first year, let's face it, like I get it, you wanted to be this analytics driven guy who went for it when most other teams didn't because you saw the real numbers on this, and he took it too far right like some of the times, like in his own territory deep they were doing. It's like okay, dude, stop it. And then I thought last year, like times were I thought he should have gone for it.
He almost like he was like, no, I can't do that anymore. Right, you know, I don't know where do you stand on Brandon Staley? Now? Do you like him as a coach?
I think I think that it might not matter as much this year because bringing in Kellen Moore and getting rid of Joe Lombardy.
Yes, and like that's a big trick, dude. It was like Lombardi.
You have a dude with the with one of the biggest arms we've ever seen at the quarterback position in the NFL, and his average depth of target was twenty sixth in the NFL last year.
It's like criminal, that's ridiculous.
It's criminal.
Like you have one of the best fifty to fifty ball receivers in the NFL, and Mike Williams like he might he's not the most polished dude, but he can like go up and get a fifty to fifty ball and like you're twenty six the NFL on average up to target. Like the fact that they're gonna throw and throw more and throw down field and take advantage of these offensive weapons, I think it will probably put Staley in fewer chances to blow it, you know, like like your chances to have to like do like.
Some of these things.
So cut to a shine, yeah, exactly, cut to fourthour.
I just I think that I think the addition to Kellimore, like you're talking about, I think that's huge. Look look at what he's done with the Cowboys passing game over the past couple of years. We Cowboys are always in the spotlight so much. But like that has been a
solid passing game. And meanwhile, you're talking about in pass offense that ran twenty eighth last season and a lot of what you're talking about, but over a pro football focus, they were in twenty eighth rights passing offense with the Chargers. So I think that's gonna like, that's gonna change things. I love Quentin Johnson addition there in the wide receiving corps.
And this is a team where, you know, you joke, you'll about everybody's kind of been high on them in different years, but like they have struggled through major injuries at the worst time.
They're always injured every.
Year, and we always choose to recognize some of those teams. We never recognize the teams that just run pure all year long on injuries, you know, and it's like that is such a big deal when it.
Comes to the NFL.
So I'm kind of hoping, hey, maybe like Mike Williams, you know, Ketan Nollen can actually play a few games together like this year, That would be nice to see once in a while because they're seemingly never do. So I'm in on the Chargers. What else did I bet Raiders and Titans fewest wins. I took shots on you know, maybe the Cardinals moves earlier this week. I have me be less excited about those bets too, because I don't know if we've seen a more declarative move of we're in the.
Tank, then see it go by the way.
I made that good Panthers last team to record a first win the day before, of course, right the day before they cut Colt McCoy. Sorry to interrupt, but it's like, so you famously a couple of years ago, Matt, you had those Texans unders. The Texans had the lowest win total. You bet it and betted again. You had like a five and a half and a five and a four and a half. I camera, are the Cardinals so bad?
And not only the Cardinals, let me just not pick on them, but like we were looking at the Texans, I don't know how the Texans get to their season win total leader, Like, is there a team where you're like, they can't. Yes, they're bad and everybody knows they're bad, but their season wind totals are not low enough.
Yeah, I mean, so I didn't. I did not move any lines.
Everyone likes to scream whatever we talk about the lines that we got and say, well, yeah, I get it, like whatever, But that's why I bet. That's why I bet it early to get the bet in my cowra. So they opened this Cardinals team at five and a half, by the way, five and a half, right, that was like as as early as often and as many different books here in town as put it up. I went in and hit it as many times I could. They went to four. By the way, Draft Kings is three
and a half. Now I might have it like they've all the way they've gone down to three and a half now on on this team. Listen, there is I've screamed this from a mountaintop. I know you guys talked about it, but if you people are just now listening to the play game, they have every incentive they're doing the right thing. They have every incentive to tear this thing down and be the worst team in the NFL.
Like very very very few opportunities do you ever get to actually rebuild a team in as short a fashion as they might be able to do because you have Kyler Murray sitting on the sideline. If you're the worst team, you get the number one overall pick. If the Texans are the second worst team and you run really pure, you are going to end up with the first and the second pick in this draft, in a quarterback heavy draft in which teams will give Heaven and Earth to
draft either Drake May or Caleb Williams. So you have a choice to either stick with Kyler Murray and then you trade both of those picks for a king's ransom and you can actually rebuild this team almost overnight, or you move on from Kyler Murray. You'll still get something in return for Kyler Murray. You draft Caleb Williams, and then you moved the number two pick for Heaven and
Earth for somebody who wants Drake May. Like it's like the greatest scenario ever for this Cardinals team to be bad, and they are buying into it early and often, and I'm here for it.
I love it. It's so good.
I'm a big fan of a tame. I'm a big fan of a tame.
And I always brought him because I applawed the Yeah, it's kind of kind of like a poker thing, right, you got a bad hand, throw it away, like I always applaud the Rosen move too, Like you went over, he sucked you figured it out quick. You moved on and went to a quarterback. If you don't have a quarterback that can win in this league, you're not You're not winning anything. So I some of these teams stretch it out for too long with these guys.
If you know he sucks, he move on, by the way, That's what the Niners did.
By the way, Caleb Williams has already stated that he'd stay another year if it's not one of his desired teams. He gets paid worth of ten million on nil. He was just hanging out at USC. He's like, I don't want to play for that team.
Man.
Do you just think for really in a world where that could happen? Now more with the nil money I do?
That is so so just to uh to the GIL.
Not to get too off, but is a pre preseason best regardless. I have Quinn Youwers, Michael Pennix and JJ McCarthy number one overall pick tickets that I do every year.
As you guys know, I take these. I take these.
Quarterbacks with bigger numbers and go ahead and get them in and and listen, there is I think there's a non zero chance Caleb Williams has the leverage to do something wacky like that, right, And I also look at the like the prototypical NFL quarterback that's that you know, what they love so much is Quinn youwers like you know, the big strong art whatever like all that, Like all you need is one team to fall in love with him, Michael Pinnicks with all the dual threat stuff that he's got,
and like you got that. And then JJ McCarthy on a team that might win the national championship in Michigan. That certainly helps a lot as well somewhere along the way. So for me, I have those three tickets in there on the off chance that Caleb Williams really does do something wacky and decide to stay in college. Like you mentioned, he makes like seven to eight figures staying in college.
So it's not the craziest thing in the world. It is wild, but it's just in my head.
I can't get around, you know, Like you guys brought up earlier with Sam Halleck, that was a guy who was projected to be a first round pick before he had a bad year, right, and then you'd slide.
It's like, would you really gamble on that?
And I don't know, if you're getting if you're making that much money a year in nil.
Do you ten million to hang out in LA for another year?
I mean, I guess it makes up for some of the draft position stuff, but man if whenever that happens, if that happens, that's it's gonna still.
Be pretty sure. One follow up, because you mentioned it's three and a half at DraftKings mat on the Cardinals. Is that too low? It does an NFL team, even in tank mode, just like we say with baseball teams, like the worst baseball team figures out a way to win fifty games? Right, maybe not the A's this year, but you get the idea. Is that the same with an NFL team?
Like?
Is that too low? You wouldn't been under on that, would you.
The Bears won three games last year?
Yeah, I guess so, Cardinals won four game games last year.
Yeah, you know it's the Texans won three games last year.
I mean, that's a tough it was a tough bet to sit through, though, it is it is.
It is the one I always think about though, Like you know, when people ask me, the Bears last year are the perfect example, rags. They won three games and like somehow we all walked away with like upsides from the season with Bears, right, it was like, well, I think Field shown a couple of things.
It's like they won three freaking games.
Like what are we talking about wildings? Yeah, any other bets that you had, Matt that you wanted to let people know about.
Uh So, I mean, look, it is of the numbers that are still available, because I don't want to sit here and talk about stuff that people can't get anymore. Oh, I told your receiving prop so that one, yes, the ceedee lamb one right, yeah, yeah, so I have ceedee lamb over ten ninety nine and a half yards. I think people are over estimating the like the conservative nature of McCarthy taking over and calling plays here, Like, yeah, are they going to be as past happy as they
were with Kellen Moore? Maybe not, but it's not going to be this precipitous difference that like everybody. So these projections on what I think for one of the most explosive offenses in the league now that Zeke is gone, like he is no longer siphoning off these carries that just waste plays for this team, and so I think they're going to get more first downs, and if you get more first downs, there's more opportunities for these things
to get home. And so I think Ceedee Lamb is not only a really good bet for over eleven hundred yards, but I mean most receiving yards in the league. I think is not out of the realm of possibility, just depending on how big of a chunk Jordan Addison actually takes out of Justin Jefferson up there in Minnesota. I think that Ceedee Lamb over ten ninety nine and a half is a really really good bet to ye.
I think just to fall up on that point, like I don't get the McCarthy Like, I've never really got what you know McCarthy's talking about. We need to slow this down, YadA YadA, ya run the ball more. Well, okay, it's easier to say that if you had the same roster as you did last year. But like you don't have the dual backs of Zeke and Tony Pollard.
Now, like you're putting all your eggs.
Do we know Tony Pollard is gonna be good moving change?
I don't know for sure, Gil, but you're putting but ployers, they're putting all their eggs in that basket like this could very easily turn into a.
Just pass heavy offense just because.
It has to. Yeah, it's uh and an Bell and Zeke ends up with the Patriots, by the way. By the way that I'll also you know, the strange backup quarterback thing ends up being Matt corral Now in the end and not Bailey Zappy. That was interesting, and not Tom Brady and not Tom Brady, which people wanted so bad for it to happen. I know they will try
to will that into existence. Uh Okay, let's do this because I want to get this on record, your seven playoff teams in each conference, because this will be fun to look back on.
So, so we're gonna go.
We're gonna go Bills, Bengals, Jags, and Chiefs because of the four division winners. Right, I went with I think the Browns are gonna be good. I do, Like I mean, it's it's there's if the only way that they're not good is if Deshaun Watson is actually washed, and if that's the case, then they won't be. But they're they got a lot of they got a lot of dudes, and so it's find it hard to believe that they can't get into the playoffs. So I have the Browns
in the playoffs as well. I have the Chargers in the playoffs as well. Yeah, I know, Banana and the tailpipe. Yet again, with the Chargers, I get it. I'm gonna go ahead and and do that and my final playoff team. And this is where I get a lot of controversy from people. It's actually not the Ravens. For me, it is the Dolphins, and so I'm going the Dolphins as the seventh pick. I think that Dolphins roster we have to assume health.
I get it. I know if Tua takes one big hit, this could be all over.
And I get all that, which is why I'm not gonna go as far as to say they can win that division over the Bills. But I think that that team, if you really break it down and you look like there is there's a lot to like about them. When when Tua was on the field last year, that offense hummed, and it was like the only time they didn't hum was when he was not on the field. And so I like that offense a lot, and they still have some decent talent on defense, So I do have.
I do feel like just anecdotally the talking football. Someummer that they're the forgotten team, like people have kind of just let them slip out of their mind. Maybe it is the two a thing whatever within you.
And I'll tell you Gil, it's like the most underrated thing because it's not super sexy. And we talk about this a lot, but like they brought in Vic Fangio is their defensive coordinator, and you can say whatever you want about him as a head coach. We get this all the time, Like some dudes are just not built to run the whole ship. I want to talk about
guys that are more respected in a singular position. You'd be hard to find more people talk about Vic Fangio as a defensive coordinator and like what he can do, and so like that guy comes in now to run the defense to go along with that offense. Like there's always the health concerns, but there's health concerns with every team, every person, every everything, So you know you can't go in worry about all that.
I think the Dolphins are the seventh teen NFC.
Well we'll do AFC around the horn.
Yeah, AFC, a FC, Bills, Bengals, Jags, Chiefs, your division winners, is that everything you said, Matt?
My wild cards are Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins.
Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs. We're all in consensus on division winners. Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins. Did I just take yours? Yeah?
Yeah, we all have the Dolphins. So maybe the.
AFC is not. Yeah, AFC's not that. This is where it's going to be interesting NFC, Matt, you start.
But I think we me and you both left the Browns out and like for me it is it is Brown's Dolphins, neck and neck.
Like right there, I'm with you.
So on the NFC side of things, division winners Eagles in the East, I have that pretty good. Like I said I, I have the Vikings. I mean, look, they had thirteen wins last year. So you want to tell me about all the you want to tell me about all the ones, Okay, we'll say you don't get two of those. They still had eleven and still end up with eleven wins. Eleven wins could could win that division. So like I still have the Vikings in the North.
In the South, it's super boring. I honestly think any of the I said this at the top, I would not be surprised if any four of these teams were to win this division.
That's the Bucks included, right.
So that being said, let's go ahead and just stick with the Saints because there are at least some stability at the quarterback position with the Saints.
And then in the West, I have the Seahawks. I really, I really do. I have the Seahawks in the West. So those are the four for me.
As far as a wild card, I do have the forty nine Ers, I do have the Cowboys. And then it comes to that seventh spot, and I don't see a world in which a second NFC South team gets in, so then it has to be one of the other North teams, and I'll go ahead and say the Lions, though I'm not ruling out it being the Packers at all. That would by far be my least confident of any of the playoff teams that I put in there would be the Lions, because I think it could be the Packers.
I think it'd be like, it wouldn't shock me if it were the Bears, and honest to God, it wouldn't shock me if the Commanders of the Giants either. So that seventh spot in the n see I think it's gonna be really wacky when it all comes down to it.
Yeah, totally division winners for me.
See, this is so to any NFC, to some of these division winners.
Why that's why I don't have a bet only any of these, any of these top conferences.
Eagles Cowboys.
I didn't go either way, but I'll go Eagles Division winner, Cowboys are in the playoffs?
Is a wildcard? Forty nine or Seahawks?
I think I think the odds where they're at now probably are are fair odds. I liked what you know, if I could have gotten the number that the Matt got, I probably would have sprinkled a little bit on the Seahawks. I'll say forty nine Ers Division winner, Seahawks in as a wild card. I'd hate to say it, but I think the Saints probably win the NFC South. I'd like my odds though, on the on the Panthers. That's why
we have I have a bet on the Panthers. No, I'm have bet on the Saints because I think the odds are good enough on the Panthers that it makes it worth a bet. So I've got that, and then Packers Vikings. It's I'm putting those two same things. Ones wins the North in one makes it in as a wild card, but I think I think the Lions could be involved there too. Shoot, I don't even know if it'd be shocked if the Bears are. The NFC North is up for grabs as well.
Philly in the East, Nighters in the West. I'll say Saints two in the South, even though that's super boring, and I am going to say Packers in the North. Just for that, we go and then the wild card wound. Go Seahawks, Cowboys and the Washington Commos.
Come on, you gotta stay on brand, Washington Commos.
I also have an alternate high regular season win total on Washington. People know if I if they listen to the show long enough, I if they suck, they suck. I am. I'm all about piling on. But this is the first year a D. Dan Snyder a D so very excited for.
Listen, listen, listen, mclauren Dotson, Like you know, they got like the guy reciverer longest longest Sam Hawi can get them the ball, Like, I mean, they're gonna be able to They're gonna be able to make some places.
One of the best defensive fronts, if not the best in all of football. They drafted Forbes, who looks good, and then the Super Bowl because with Kelly and I were talking about exact as, by the way, in baseball right now, like we're just talking this morning. I think Braves Astros exact is either way are like good prices at sixteen and eighteen to one, Braves at sixteen to one, to beat the Astros the other way around at eighteen to one NFL obviously you're gonna a longer shot right now.
But if you took what were some of the numbers we saw, and like, if you took the uh the.
Achievement to over the ones, I bet yeah, they're the ones you bet. I bet five already, I bet five. I bet five about I don't know if you agree with this, but I think this is a better year than most to play some of these exactness because I have such limited.
If we feel like there's limited teams in the NFC, there are limited teams in the NFC that I think can actually go there.
So look, I think there is a Big three, but I I have the forty, I have the Eagles and the Cowboys. A little bit ahead of where I think the forty nine ers are. So I chose those two teams to key in on.
I did it.
And Eagles over Bengals at fifty two to one and Eagles over Chargers one hundred and twenty to one, Cowboys over ninety to one, Cowboys over Ravens two hundred, and Cowboys over Chargers two.
These are awesome bets to have.
In pocket, though how much fun are those bets they get to get me to the playoffs with both those teams and their funnest phenomenal the one.
They're talking about these I bets you can get so just just real quick to get off on a side, like the if you go to DraftKings and you click on the division specials and then they have an exact order tab in there, Like so if you're super bullish on a division winner, and you're super bullish on who's going to be last, like you can just bet both of the teams in the middle at like these five
and six to ones or whatever and like guarantee yourself. Well, I mean, obviously you can go so, but like you know,
you would be basically putting your convictions in play. And these bets that are like five and six to one, and so you know if you really are if you're like, no, absolutely, for sure the Jags are gonna win the South and for sure, let's just say that you think for sure the Texans are going to be dead last or so then you can bet the flip flop of the other two teams in the middle at like plus three twenty
five plus four twenty five. Like there's other ones that are like five and six to one and somebody that. So again you can kind of like explore around with some of those things where if you know the first in the last, it doesn't really matter what the teams are in the middle, Like if you think it's Chiefs Raiders and that that you don't really know if it'll
be Chargers or Broncos. Like it's three to one for for Chiefs, Chargers Broncos Raiders, and then it's four to one for Chiefs Broncos, Chargers Raiders, right, and so there's like all of those Yeah.
Okay, just to be clear, you're talking order of finish in a division, right, Okay, while to figure out what yeah, okay, yeah, gotcha, you.
Have to bet one through four. So he'd have to bet both of those.
But I hear what you're saying.
Yeah, yeah, you think it makes sense. Yeah yeah, Just.
Like if you're confident in the winner and who's going to be last, right, and then like you, then you can just bet both sides of the of who finishes second and third, you're still getting over three to one. Like the smallest one that you can play is three to one on any of the divisions.
So yeah, it's a good point. I'm just thinking, what's the division that lead off the page? Is what you might be the most confident in. I'm guessing most people would think it's that Matt doesn't but most people would think it's San Francisco, Arizona. Perhaps in the NFC West. If you think Chiefs Raiders, the chief Raiders Chiefs or Chiefs Raiders, some people think it would be Chiefs Raiders. You really think the Raiders are last place in the in the a f C.
I I really do you know?
I mean, I really is there is? There is? This is great? Is there an a f C South Cellar? Like you, we love the Jaguars, So the Jaguars will be the number one division winner? I think consensus. Is there a bottom team in that Division.
Well, so you would almost play that one, like the the varying versions of of like Jags Titans and yeah yeah whatever, yeah yeah yeah, something like jack Jags Titans.
And then.
Because you could do that NFC East too, Like if you're as bullish as me, Eagles Cowboys, you could bet both options where it's commanders three jihiens for Giants three commands.
What was Bengals over Niners and the exactly I would play the Bengals over Niners.
Uh so for me as far as Super Bowl, like, look, I'm I could not be higher on this Eagles team. I mean, like it is, it's just almost impossible to like nitpick other than the fact that they're replacing coordinators. But it's like you're replacing coordinators on the most loaded team in the NFL, Like that makes the transition a
lot easier. Whenever you're stepping into the best offensive line and the best defensive line and like awesome corners and great skill position player, like that makes the transition a lot easier than it is for a lot of these coordinators that are coming in on all of this. And so it's very very hard for me to get past the Eagles. So I got the Eagles winning at all, and it just kind of is what is on the on the AFC side of things, on the SC side
of things. As long as I as long as like the first couple of weeks get by and it looks like Joe Burrow is actually Joe Burrow and this calf thing is not a lingering thing, then I will say Cincinnati. But like, I'm reserving that because these cap injuries can be a thing, So I don't want to, like, I don't want to like go out on a limb right now and say that whenever, so I'll stay I'll say Chiefs for now, but I really want to say Cincinnati so long as it looks like Joe Burrow's fine.
And part of me as we're saying this, because like I obviously love the Niners too, But part of me as we're saying this, I'm thinking, how many times in Super Bowl history have we had the same two teams play back to back. I know we had the Bills and the Cowboys to it. This feels as close to
a Chief's Eagles repeat. Also because the Eagles. As you're talking about the Eagles, man, I'm thinking to myself, I'm like They're the kind of team that as soon as you watch them for like two drives, you're like, everything else that we think is bullshit. They're so good. They're so good, and all this other stuff is might just be nonsense, and they just keep adding players and that Georgia defense. So I guess we close with this. What's
the consensus opinion that you've heard others have? Like, so, you know, we all talk people, we all do shows, we all have football guests. What's the opinion you've heard over and over again seemingly that you just have the hardest time buying into where You're like, how come everybody keep saying this is gonna happen? And I just don't buy it at all? What's that we'll leave on that?
Yeah, mineus that this Baltimore Ravens pass game is just going to be exponentially better like that, Like all I keep hearing is, oh, well, Lamar Lamar wants to throw more.
Well, great, cool that Lamar wants to throw more.
Well, Lamar didn't call the place, you know, I mean, you know, like Lamar I di can call the play.
Well, that's great. You know, he's also done extremely well.
He also doesn't how can I put this excel Yeah.
You brought it? Oh Noell, I mean we have any idea. I mean we don't.
We don't.
He might be like everyone's just like, oh this offense, h Todd Monk and whatever. It's like, I am not buying into the fact that, like, oh, just just because Lamar said he wants to throw more and and Todd moncan this is going to be a great passing offense and it's not even gonna resum but what we've seen in the past, well, guess what, Like your best weapon is the fact that your quarterback is it's gobile. It's like he can create all this stuff on his own.
So like you would almost be doing yourself a disservice if you do not run the offense the way that Lamar Jackson is best suited. So for me, it's that this like pass game for the for the Ravens is gonna be like just blow us away.
This is an excellent man. I never say what an excellent question I've just said, But this is this actually has me thinking because I can think of one.
I think you know exactly where I'm going.
It's gonna be the same as mine.
Patriots.
Oh no, no, no, no, no, no, that wasn't so consensus, was it.
Okay, it's maybe not consensus, it's not consensus. But I have heard way more Patriots lost. Yes, I was ever expecting.
And that includes season long, includes week one because well.
We just we just heard doctor Bob has one NFL pick week one. He's like Patriots and the points at the.
Eagles, and I think, but no, no, no, they're at home.
They're at home.
Oh at home, yeah're at home, right, But I mean, I.
Think the bet that I've got closest to making so far, well was the Seahawk yesterday, but since then it would be the Eagles.
If a three pops, I'll lay of the Eagles, I'll play with three of.
The three will last for a second and a half exactly.
So I look, all due respect to JVT. I know he loves the Patriots. Patriots this year too. I've just been if you want to tell me, you're like, eh, I don't really know what this Patriot seems gonna be there in a tough division, like I think they could be a little bit.
Okay, I'm okay with that.
Some of these people that are like that think they're a legit playoff team.
I just I can't get there with them.
Mine is and I don't. Again, this is in the league's worst division. So might it end up manifesting? Sure, I guess they could. But the universal at least it seems like the universal love for the Atlanta Falcons from like a million guests this offseason is the one that troubles me.
That do you feel like that simmered down a bit a little? I thought about that a couple of weeks ago.
I just don't know how you immediately think Desmond Ridder is going to be good. I just don't. I can't make that leap, I guess, is what I'm saying. So I just like, where are we doing this? Why does everybody have this opinion? So I just want to slow everybody's role on that, at least in my head, because I keep every time that came up, I'm like, why
is this? Yeah, we all get together and decides. But that was kind of the deal on the Lions if you remember last offseason, and it took half the season to actually finally kick in right, and then it did and they ended up with the season win to lover Bol when they're like one in six to begin the season. I believe so.
And that was a great point, you know from from Mark here, who we've all talked to a million times, but I remember him last summer, right, he was really big on.
The Lions, on what he thought they could do last last season.
And when we talked to him just a couple of weeks ago, he was kind of mentioned like, hey, all that love that I had for that team is reflected in the odds this year, and I can't it's even swung too far for him where He's like, I can't even get get on that train because the odds have swung too far.
All right, I think we covered Is anything else we didn't cover of? Note, like you leave on got all my bets?
Yeah, I mean anything you've bet for Week one?
Yeah, that's a good question. What's your survivor play?
Tell us? Yeah, you know what, I haven't. I haven't even decided that yet. Yeah, I haven't even I haven't even decided that yet. Where I'm gonna go with all that?
No, I honestly, my Week one the only thing I have in the account as of as of right now.
I did take.
I took the Eagles at four on the road. I guess against the Patriots, like it. Just as soon as the number came out, like I just I took it. It went to four and a half.
Now it's back.
I mean, hell, now it's down to three and a half, which I don't know. Maybe I'm on the wrong side here, But prove it to me. I guess, like, I mean, you know whatever, prove it to me. I guess I don't. I think that Juju Smith Schuster was a product of having the best quarterback in the NFL throwing the ball all season long. So now he's gonna be catching passes for mac Jones. Good luck with that, you know. I mean, like, I'm just I'm not buying into any of that, any
of that stuff. So I think the Eagles go in and thump them.
I do too, I did to. Well, Bob's thing was about like, oh it was Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and all that shit.
I mean, the consensus argument is that there's gonna be a there is a massive gap in what your coordinators were from last year to this year.
I get that. I understand that.
But Dan though Bill O'Brien has gone through the Nick Saban rehabilitation programs, so there is like we know, but as far.
As I know, Bill O'Brien isn't taking snaps under center. So like, I think that still applies, and I think there's a lot of people that feel because of the coordinators, what you saw Mac Jones two years ago and what you saw them last year, he's probably somewhere in between or closer to.
The year one, which I think that all makes sense.
But as we've talked about here, I think you're stuck in a very tough division. I think it's still a very big, uphill climbed ass this team to do a whole lot.
All right, So this year we're pumped because, by the way, Kelly and I do a show called The Numbers Game on vsin seven to nine Pacific, seven am to nine am Pacific money through Friday ten to noon Eastern, but this year on Fridays, Friday morning. If you like this, this kind of banter between the three of us, we're doing not one, not two, but three segments with Matt Brown each and every Friday morning. So right as you go into your NFL weekends, uh and uh, correct me
if I'm wrong. Now this will be in the first hour, the DK Network hour. But ten, fifteen, ten thirty, ten forty five, So from ten to fifteen to eleven eastern, seven fifteen to eight am Pacific, each and every Friday morning, the three of us talking nothing but National Football League. Cannot wait, and you'll actually be here for that, right, you'll come down here.
I'm gonna be sitting at the big table with you guys, and we're gonna yeah, we're gonna be we're gonna be rocking it. And haters get ready. I mean, I mean, just seriously, I get those angry tweets ready, like I can't wait.
It's gonna be can't wait.
It's gonna be awesome, and maybe we'll actually get field goal kicks and spray tan. The spraytan thing is great.
The ball listen, the ball is now in Kelly's court. This is this is it's you, buddy, buddy.
The thing is like he's I can tell now I know he does, but like he's being sincere. Now he will actually do the poll. It's bullshit, exactly complete bullshit.
Is Matt Brown?
Always shit? Is it is?
It's in your you agree that the spring tend We're going out there. We'll got there this weekend. Kelly let's go the holiday.
And then outside of Friday, Matt, where can people hear you?
Uh, We're gonna be on the handle, me and Mike Sommitch.
Actually for this NFL season four to seven, four to seven Pacific, seven to ten Eastern Saturdays will be a big NFL preview. We also have the Contest Show, so we'll be talking about the contest, entries and things like that that go on. And then on Sunday we'll lead you into Sunday Night Football. We'll talk some Monday Night football and then by then the odds for the next week will be coming out, so we'll be looking at those as well.
Nice you guys do your under promoted golf podcast during the NFL season or no.
I don't.
It's hard for me to bet golf in the fall. Kelly might bet a little bit of golf in the fall.
Would you like me to translate that We're not going to see a lot of Matt.
It's going to be mainly me and West. Yeah. I think that Matt will be there for the Ryder Cup special.
And alright, Matt sending sending your invoice?
Yeah sounds good? All right, coming in had a cocktail for you behind me, for.
Poor mad Brown, for Kelly Biman, good luck with all your best. Can't wait for the NFL season to start. Thank you for listening.