Beating the Book: 2022 Wimbledon Preview

the Championships at Wimbledon, the fortnight at Wimbledon. And what I love about doing these tennis pods so much, and we have committed to an addition to our megapod and guessing lines during football season, to doing all the tennis Slams, because this is for me again the ultimate nirvana, because honestly, there are two people on earth that I would like to talk about this subject with always and they are kind enough to join us once again on this podcast

from England. You can follow him on Twitter at Tennis Ratings. He does gray stuff for Bedfair, the finest tennis handicapper, to which I owe tons of inspiration for doing it myself. Dan Weston is with us, fresh off a magical cruise through the Mediterranean. How are you doing, Dano? Yeah, I'm good, Gil, Yeah, yeah, we did into it. The cruise now ready for within Oh, by the way, should I can I say the name of the CRUI ship? Should I? Should I give him

a plug free? Feel free? What is it? What is it? I don't want to batch it the wonder? What is it? Under the wonder of the seas? Which will be in Cape Canaveral, Florida staid in November for those who are interested. So the European seasons from from I think May till November, and then American season, Credian season from from there once for months as well. I love it. A Caribbean season. I love that. Sadly, it's in the middle of our pro football season, so I'm out of luck as as

this gentleman probably is out of luck. The other one here that I'd love to talk to about this sub and others, by the way, which I probably start with you. Followed on Twitter at Whale Underscore. Kapper is co host of both The Deep Dive and NBC Sports at the Edge podcast, which he does respectively with with his buddies with his buddy Andy Molitor and then with Sarah Perlman. It is Drew Dinsic. How you doing Drew from his

backyard in Long Bitch. Yeah, no no complaints here. Feeling great funny as you guys are talking about both, I'm going boat shopping this hafternoon, so you know it's not not really what what a what a great what a great draft? The NBA draft was unfreaking believable last night. Best one of the best nights I've had as a as a sports better, without question. And um, you know what do you do when you when you have a night like that, you buy a morning you know, you

get up the next morning you start grinding tennis. That's right back, right back into the grinds. So let me, let me explain to people since there's gonna be a lot of people who are just too near for tennis. And Dana is probably like, wait, what is this? So last night we had our National Basketball Association Draft, which typically from a betting perspective, takes a huge back seat to our National Football League draft, which is a betting extravaganza for those of us who met that kind of thing.

And this year's draft. The reason that Drew is beyond belief happy today and as he mentioned, slightly hungover, uh is is that this year's draft, which you know, up until about a week ago was very quiet, as as typical then within the last five or six days, there's been a there was a monumental move on the person that uh ultimately did get drafted number one last night. But about a week ago he was twenty two one.

Four days ago he was still double digits, twelve to one, and then there was this unbelievable dip in his price through the Year's name is through the week. His name is Paula bun Carol from Duke Ensa. Being the numb one pick in the NBA draft goes to Orlando and I gave a passionate speech on Mondays to why I thought he would be the first pick of the draft. Drew made out like a bandit. Um bet, I'm going to guess more than I did on this even and I've been a lot. Uh. We also have a friend

Bill cracker Burger who made out big time. But anyway, it becomes one of the greatest betting case studies and results in probably both of our betting lives. It's up there, it's on them. It's It's one of those ones you'll remember for years to come, wouldn't you say, Drew, Oh yeah, without question. It would be like if if the market was looking at this Wimbledon field and priced Djokovic at one like it was at fifty chance. Man, he should

be you know, he should have been. Uh, he should have been a pick um and you could have got it at just an absurd price for point on a week and it just so happened to be the most liquid market in all the draft two, which was just on. You know, I don't know that that's going to come along again. I hope it is, but yeah, but that, yeah, that was that was something to be to, something to see. Guy at Caesar's Sports Books said the market for the number one pick in the NBA draft ended up at Caesar's.

I don't know about other books, but at Caesar's ten times the handle for the NFL draft number one, which is mind numbing, right, just could you could never have predicted that. I definitely wouldn't have had a lost a lot of money on that. Yeah, that was an upset anyway, Dan, I'm sure this was riveting to you. But otherwise, But of so, now extra extra extra liquidity in my accounts

to dunk on tennis. So I'm in good shape and I have I have old missed this weekend at a d one in college Baseball for an amount of money that will make William Hill notice if I win. Yeah, let's just put it that way. So between the Warriors, Bunk Hero and this, this could be the greatest betting stretch ever. And as you point out, and now there's Wimbledon, which real is like, oh my god, and the tennis tournament hasn't even started, and so let's get to that.

The draws are out. Unlike the last time, Daniel, you weren't you weren't able to be here for the French draw. Drew and I were actually doing this podcast while the draw came out for the French and if you recall, that was the draw where it sits Apost basically got his own half, and so we were just w we were mind blown while this was coming out, this one. And let's start on. I want to start on the women's side, because I think what I saw today on the men's draw made trigger to bet for me on

the men's side. But I want to start on the women's side, where oh you go up, surprise, your surprise. We'll see women's side my real quick reaction to the draw, and and we'll get yours immediately, which is quarter one with Ega, egas Fiantec pretty favorable for Ega. I have a again, a nine to one ticket from the night that ash Party retired. I was looking for any stray Egan French Open numbers. I didn't find any of those, but I did find a nine to one at Wimbledon.

She's never one on grass before. Her word looks pretty good to me. Um quarter four going all the way to the bottom, I think Maria Soakery should be telling herself or her camp should be telling her, Look, we should be able to win this. Then I'd say quarter two going back is a really difficult one. Simona Hallips quarter if you will, for lack of a better term, is even though she's not seating, it isn't her tournament, it isn't it shouldn't be called her quarter. I think

that's a really difficult one. And I think quarter three is pretty difficult. I'm curious Dan will start with you what your reaction was to the women's side. Um, it's so interesting because obviously we swear Take just hasn't played a lot on gross at all. She hasn't played the warm up events, and for me, I think that men said a real risk for anyone. Her short prices over

the coming couple of weeks. So I had to look at the pricess on bat Fair at the moment, and she's she's two point eight for um, pretty similar rule and in that cool to one if if you've some threats, I do think she's had a client drawer for sure. Um. Historically on grass, someone like mother will will challenge her, push her robe akina, maybe at a big price, uh

andre asking potentially uh heck of her. If she's playing while unfit, that could be some options for challenging her, some tough and tough opposition there potentially, But I think she's she's gonna be pretty happy with her draw Yeah. And by the way, just let me interject for those listening American audience listening, Um, when Dan says short prices by our parlance, what he means is a long price opposite based on the on the fraction system. But I'm

with you completely. I think anybody jumping in right now on ego for the tournament in our bedding parlance plus one fifty issue, I just don't think you make that bet. You just don't make that bet. Yeah, what did you think about what do you think about the Simona Hallip quarter number two there. That seems really competitive to me. Yeah, and interestingly, how has barely played on grass at all over the last couple of years prior to this year

where she's she played a couple of warm up events. Um, I like, I like Hallett in terms of but she actually got pretty good numbers on away from clay this year, which is not always the case. But obviously we've got the injury doubt on her room from Bad Homburg, so that's a uh something of a red flag. Although wait to see how she she kind of maybe plays in that first round game against Matova. It was a tough first round game. If you're going to yeah, yeah she's yeah,

she has she has. Of course Katie Balter has been playing very well and that she does have. Amanda and this Amova perhaps most prominently Coco Golf, who has been playing great tennis, is in their Coco Golf, by the way, with the exception of a Shapur, the shortest shot beyond Igasia Tec and then there's Arena. What do we do with Serena? Do we have to give her any credence

here going for slam, any any credence at all? Or is this just a tighter woods on a on the wrong course kind of thing now, even though this would be the right surface for her, I guess bad analogy. Yeah, I have an opinion on all I'll jump in. Um. I think the draw was a little not as imbalanced as the men's French Open, but I do think all of the dangerous players outside of onster Boar ended up in the top. Um And I think Q two is the kind of the quarter of death on the women's straw.

Basically every kind of every player with a high enough ceiling to really give it to Ega kind of sitting in that Q two. So Ega, if she comes out of Q one, it's going to have a very very challenging semifinal head to head. Whoever emerges now that player may have that they may have fired so many bullets to get there that he can dispatch them and make a final here. But I shared Dan's concern and skepticism

about EGA's lack of experience on this surface. I don't think her game especially lends itself to being a strong grass player. Um. And I think EGA's camp's decision to have her basically, you know, more or less throw up the white flag for grass season was probably strategically good, like she'll get some reps on grass this year, but it's not, you know, she's not going for a calendar

slam or anything. She's going to be the world number one easily for the next you know year and time, um, and so saving up some of her bullets and then going for a US Open I thought was very very you know, potentially, like I'm assuming that's what they're doing. I thought that was strategically smart because she can, she can and should be a massive favorite to win the

US open. Um slower hardcore, that's that that should be, uh, you know you want to you want to run it back all the good feelings about how easy was that Ego won the French Open, Like, save your bullets for for the U s Open. I don't think Wimbledon's your your time to to go after this with aggressiveness. Completely agree with that. I am also with Dan that there are a number of potential challengers in Q one that

are going to make for tough outs. The one that I circled for based on price was andrew Esque just because she has a slam in her career, like she's proven that she can find a speed. You know, she's proven that she can find a level on you know, in in a slam pressure environment that is good enough to be a head to head surely. Uh. And I think her price is pretty favorable to come out of the first quarter and really frankly out of the top half because of what we mentioned, like quarter two is

the quarter of death. Um. Serena, as you kind of alluded to, is a was sort of the land mine in the draw. So whatever quarters she landed in was gonna, you know, it was gonna automn actually make that a challenging quarter. And she had played warm up doubles with Bonds Jabor in Eastbourne, but only really played those two matches. And I watched a lot of that. I watched a lot of that tennis and more tennis doubles than I've watched in years, just to try to get some read

on it. Uh. And Serena looked like she was in really quite good shape. Um. Not the kind of fitness level that you can win seven matches over two weeks, but at fitness level that she's going to make some seated player miserable in the in the first week. Um. And so I think penciling her into week two is not crazy. Uh six one for the tournament is crazy. I don't think you can expect her to be able to, you know, not play a tournament in a year and then come in and find form that you know that

that can persist for uh two weeks stretch. Um. So my general read on Serena is she's gonna upset some players with with with hopes of going deep in this tournament, but then ultimately fizzle out in week two. Um. And I'm circling Plushkova as a as a you know, a victim here. Uh, Coco Golf could be in trouble if they meet head to head in a quarterfinal here. But Coco Golf again got kind of the worst of the draws of anyone who was considered yeah, of anyone who

is considered potentially live outside of the top two. And Egan on Coco got the worst of it. And by the way, I feel the need just to interject this, I think I know the answer. But the reason for Jabor and Serena pulling out of the doubles effectively was a enterbore knee injury. You completely believe that that's just the week before Wimbledon. I want to take a few days off the injury kind of thing. I mean, I hope. Yeah. I got a lot of enterboard and the thirties three

to one range, so I'm hoping that that was precautionary. Um, she hasn't shown any signs and anything I watched where I was concerned about her fitness for sure. Um, but you never know. I mean I think injury, you know, I don't. I don't. We haven't talked much about the bottom so far. Um, but let me ask you about that anyway. I was gonna say, you know, injury. Injury scares me more than anyone she has to run into

between here in the final. Oh so that's interesting because because I was I'm just gonna throw out some names in her draw and I'll get you and you're you're showing no fear whatsoever. But I'll just throw out some names. Danielle freaking college not not no no fear, a little bit of should give her a match, keys can keys can make a quarterfinal, but I think she ultimately gets beaten straights. Yeah. Now we we have a bit of a different opinion on Emma rad Oukanu. You do not

believe her to be a threat. I don't know. I mean it's the same she's obviously she kind of came burst onto the scene at Wimbledon last year. People remember her US Open title run, but her Wimbledon run was pretty special, and she gave Ego. Ego, by the way, who's won thirty five matches in a row, I should point out fifty two, fifty four sets, six titles this year.

Emma gave Ego pretty good match. People remember samson Ova taking a set off of Ega, but Emma was pretty pretty freaking good in that match, and I remember being impressed, like, Okay,

maybe this isn't some blip. By the way, the one name, the one name that I haven't mentioned in the draw, which is probably the biggest one if you go into her data, her grass court data, and again grass court data not as robust as other services, but Angelique Kerber and I think you've pointed this out as well, Drew, and we'll bring in Dan for this as well. Her grass court numbers twelve months, six month, however you slice it, our spec tack killer, Dan, I'm not sure how you

feel about any of these threats. Of all, I agree with Drew and that and that injury I think is the biggest threat to jabb And it's interesting to see that on the bet fair market her price is now the lowest that it's ever been, So the betfair market is not remotely spooked about this injury issue at all. She's she's been well supported and and so they're not concerned. I think, yeah, Peak Curber, you would, you would say probably would be a bigger threat than most in that

third third quarter. I am also on the anti Rabicanu position. Um, I just can't get behind the player who has has one of service points on hard or indoor hard this season. That's just that's just nowhere near good enough. And what do you need to do well on gross? You've gotta serve well, you've gotta sound consistently, and I think it's asking a great deal of her to to turn that around in a short term bottom draw, bottom bottom quarter.

Do you agree with what I said about this earlier is that if I'm if I'm a Ria Saceres camp and she has not had a tremendous stretch here of tennis of late, and I'm like, okay, well there is Blenda bench itch. If I've got the right draw here and a Contumatacy is the high seat in that in that quarter, in that quarter. But Blenda bench Itch is in there, Beatrice Haddad Maya my girl Drew Uh, she's seasoned there as well, and she has just had a spectacular run. Uh. And then Elena Stapenco can't be uh

can't be overlooked either. But if I'm if, I'm Maria Saces girl, I mean, isn't this like okay, like all these players, if you're if you are as good as you as we think you are, shouldn't she get out of this? Or or is she just not that good enough to do that. I'm gonna go with the I don't mind putting a line through Saccary and contivate here. Your top two seeds in this draw to me are

upset special candidates. Um Zachary is a weird one because for all of her tools, all of her strength, she should be one of the best grass players on tour, but it just has never manifest And she also has this weird thing going where the further she goes into these slam tournaments, the more the pressure builds, the more likely she is to come, you know, to to succumb

to the to the pressure. And that's not to say things couldn't break well for her here or gets hurt all of a sudden, you know, saccary uh you know, comes through with an easier path than expected to a final and faces someone who is either battle weary, will be on battle warn or or just you know, not

ready for the moment like she could win. Sure, there's not it's not crazy, but m M, I guess if Zachary wins this title, I'm gonna lose a lot of money betting against her in the later stages, surely, just because I'm gonna be expecting her to ultimately capitulate. She's done it every time she's been there. True, you have you have your board at thirty three to one, as I recall, yes, yeah, and I again kind of the Cerber comment, So okay, let's just pretend that something happens

is your board. Kerber is my immediate favorite to win Q three, like, no question, no question for me, And it was a shame she got put where she got put up against your board in round four potentially, and that should be a really good match. Kerber's got the experience on grass, which is something that takes years and years of playing on grass to get and she has proven that she can get it done on grass. Her game and you know, sure her grass game is awesome.

Her loss to Alisa Corne was weird. I don't know what happened there. I don't know if she didn't really like if she wasn't really into that match, didn't feel like she needed it anymore, she was ready to kind of move on to Wimbledon or what. But I thought she was gonna win that Homburg. Frankly, that win the whole tournament. Um, So to see her go out was strange. Um,

but I don't know that that's a red flag. I think ultimately Cerber goes down to Jabor and I think, uh, but I think, let's say it's Sacchary Kerber as a semi final. Just for the purpose of making a price, I would I would personally bet Cerber at any dog price there. Um. I think I would make her a decent favorite over Sachary at that stage of a tournament like this, Oh dog approves okay, yeah, dog likes the

other dog. And that's if that's where you get. I don't know, I mean, maybe maybe Dan, do you have a different opinion on Zachary's chances. Yeah, yes and no, Um yeah, I can go with you certainly for the latter stages. But she has like probably the biggest gift first week that you could ever wish to see. And you look at Q four and you think, Okay, ustr Penco ben Chitch had admyre conservation. Who hasn't played a

glass warm up event at all? Ben Chit has been injured. Um, there's there's a few if spots and maybe he's around a lot of the guys in that quarter. And I think, if you're looking at this key four, this is the quarter where maybe it could open up for somebody and she might not actually have to play anyone half decent till the semifinal. That's that was my thinking. When I saw this, I'm like, okay, if you're just I don't know why I placed myself. Okay, this is the one

like this. We have no excuse anymore in this draft right here, based on everything you just said. Um so, now, if you don't have Drew's thirty three to one on on, if you don't have my nine to one on to be I tech get it, those aren't available. What's the best bet either in the futures or in the quarter market right now as you see it, DAM will start with you quarter market. I haven't got prices for yet. They haven't they haven't been they're not available on exchange.

Um yeah. Um for me, I like sakari Q four because I think it will open up for her um a really really big price. I'm quite happy to take tech on with someone like Elina right Backina or just just just just someone who's actually a competent player with upside, who could who could come through that key one where there's not a great deal of really high level players.

Just there's a there's a couple of thoughts there. If you've got obviously, if you've got Jabbor at thirty threes, like like Drew has, you're very very happy with life right now, um and obviously spits up at nins. You might want to looking at it row. You might want to hedge a part of it in week two. I don't know, but the yeah, but I think that there's I mean, I wouldn't want to switch the current process

that way. Drew the same question. Yeah, I think, Um, there's I've seen some of the kind of smaller shops in the UK hand quarter prices and if those end up going you know, anything like that hits the exchange, then I'm very much gonna have beyond Bianca Andrea asqu Q one and top half. I think she can make the final here good enough, high enough feeling like Dan's dan set up of who has the upside, you know, and that that for me, the answer is pretty squarely

beyond andrescue. You know, I've felt that way about Bianca for so long now that I'm that, I'm kind of I'm kind of fatigued by it. To be honest with you, I think the market is too, which is giving you the opportunity to get her at a pretty cheap price. UM. Like the like the case against your bor is pretty straightforward. She's never done it at the slam level, like this would be a maiden slam. Doing a maiden slam at Wimbledon's not easy. Very few you know players have won

their first slam at Wimbledon. UM, certainly in this in today's day and age especially, UM. So you know, will the moment, you know, will the will the lights be bright on Center court in week two? And will she uh you know, be able to find what is to me, at least has clearly been the best grass tennis on the women's tour over the last two seasons. Now, um, you know that that's the that's the bear case for Ans.

And I think if you're looking for an upside against her, then you're looking for someone who at least has a slam in their pocket, who is playing their best tennis this spring and summer so far. And I think Bianca checks those boxes. So um at a at a, at a long shop price, I think it's worth the worth a look. All right, Drew by the way, broadcasting from his backyard, I can't tell you how awesome this is

in a morning after NBA draft shot. He's going to buy a boat later today, Ladies and gentlemen, by a boat. I got a lot of taxes to big go okay, So let's go to the men's side and i'll get again. I'll give you my first impressions off the top, and we'll see what you guys think. One um, Novak Djokovic the rightful favorite for sure, as I think we all agree, of this tournament. He didn't have he didn't get the easiest draw at all here in this bracket in terms

of like what you could throw at him. Anyway. It's I mean, listen, I'm not saying he's gonna lose at any point here, but I'm just saying Carlito's I get it. Not Carlitos is number one surface, but uh, Carlos Alcarez. Don't call me Carlos, call me Carlitos or Charlie Alcarez. I'm gonna go with Charlie. Charlie Alcarez is in there. Both served Botso Pelka and uh and isn'er are in there, which is always fun. Van Reruehoven I feel the need

I should bring him up. Uh Tim van Rerdehoven, who I believe played a nine a TP career matches and then won a grass court tournament in the Netherlands just a few weeks back. He's a wild card. The home favorite. Andy Murray is in that bracket as well, in that quarter as his Yonic center. Anyway, that's all in Djokovic's quarter. I feel like quarter two is completely wide open. I think Quarter three seems like a Barrett Teeny Curios head to head. If Curios decides once and for all in

life to be serious about two weeks at Wimbledon. That's a huge if. And then here's my biggest macro thing here. And I'm curious because to me, I didn't have a bed in the outright market on the men's side. But Rafa Nadal is just sitting down there chilling in the fourth quarter. And I gotta tell you, guys, I'm making a bet on it because I feel like he got

as favorable with draws you could possibly have gotten. And maybe that was predictable, right roph Nadal, who's halfway to a Grand Slam that hasn't happened since Rod Labor did in nineteen nine. It's clearly not his primary surface. We all know that Clay is, but I don't know. Man, that's about as good of a run to a semi as you can get, and you can still get him in about six to one, seven to one. I'm curious your thoughts, dan Um, I'm not so sure, to be

honest with you. I mean, he played a walm up match hurting him yesterday, I think against Stanford. Rinka commented subsequently and said that the old Nadal was back, but I'm not so sure. We've got the injury doubts we've got. Then he hasn't won this tournament for over a decade. Um, these these issues don't go away. Now you're you're right, he's he's probably a Sam Quarry shock away from week two. I mean the old Sam Quarry would have given him

a good game anyway. Um, but then you look at you look at week two and you think, okay, well there's some there's some hurdles. I think that I prefer Chilich rather than elisim As as the main threat in Q four. Tough opener for or j l sim against Maxine and Crazy and then m Dan Evans potentially around three as well, which is not going to be straightforward at all against a good glass quarter with a pretty

partisan crowd, you would imagine. Um, but chill it should get through the earlier rounds um, And yeah, maybe Nadal in the fourth round would be a good game with soon. Chiliches has obviously done well recently in in in in Ronan Garros and as good a few wins under his belt in at Queen's Club as well. So yeah, I prefer Chilen at the prices to Nadal, who I just

got so many doubts about it. I just he was never that great on cross at his peak, So it's only a fairly open kind drawer that you think he's he's some form of value. And Chileach along with Standard Rinka, the only two humans on Earth, I believe walking that are still playing that have a Grand Slam men single title, I guess, with the exception of Dominic team as well, besides the Big three. Right, so there always is that in chileags in child's bag. What else? What else were

your impressions of those gars right there? Um? So with Djokovic, I obviously agree with what you said at the Union intro about him being a very justified favorite, but I'm not sure I like goods on I'm I'm very unsure if that. I mean, he's only won one title this year, so and I feel like the mark it's kind of pricing on the old joke of it if you like. Um. But the question is, yeah, he probably could barely have

hand picked a better, better first quarter. He's got a clay quarter who's barely played on grass in Alcarez as the is the main seed in the quarter. Um Andy Murray, maybe he might provide a threat, But like you said, I think maybe a couple of surfboxs might cause him

more trouble than anybody, um, you know in England. I don't know if you guys are aware, but in England we've had the hottest, driest last two or three months than we have had for years, So conditions I would imagine will be quite fast and that will obviously help the little guys like a Pelker Johnet's not. I mean, it's barely round here for we for weeks or months, honestly is It's very very unusual. And so that's that's

that will probably die a lot. The pace a little bit drew your thoughts on all that interesting, interesting tidbit. They're on the pace. I thought Queens played exceptionally fast, so that kind of checks out. Umm. Q one. Djokovic is to lose, no doubt and I and you know them his section in particular, like his path to the quarterfinal. He's not dropping a set unless he feels like it. Like that's that is a very very straightforward quarterfinal appearance

for Djokovic. He's a quarterfinal opponent is going to be someone of quality tennis quality, but not someone who can beat him head to head on grass. Um, all everything we said about IgA and lack of experience. She's got twelve grass matches as a pro, but she did win junior title, so it's not like she doesn't know how to win on grass. Al Karez has who grass matches in his career. He's deal he dealt with injuries after

Roland Garris was over. Uh, and he does not have a junior record that suggests he has uh you know, a great some sort of grass form that will surprise us. Um. And he's I mean, frankly like his what makes his game so dangerous plays perfectly for Clive, plays perfectly for slow, hardcourt, but I don't know that it plays especially well for grass. Um.

You know, his most effective drop shot. Uh, you know, it's not going to do well against a player like Andy Murray, who's so experienced on grass and you know, can can cover, you know, can come to the net um and you know, and and handle things perfectly well. Um. So I think, yeah, I think alcarez expecting him to you know, surprise shock the world and make a final or a quarterfinal, a semifinal. Here I think is is

a or assumption. Um. And uh, you know, I don't hold out tond of hope for Wisner or a Pelca Pelca especially, it seems to be just wildly out of out of sorts last couple of last couple of tournaments. He just hadn't looked looked like what we saw from the guy in the winner. UM. So if he, if he shows up and plays well, it'll be a little bit of a shocker. Similarly for Wisner, um Andy Murray I think can fight his way to a quarterfinal where

he probably gets summarily beaten down by Djokovic. That's kind of my vibe of the first quarter. UM quarter two weakest weakest. I actually, I actually will disagree with you about wide open. What do you like? I think should net them monster. He should be odds on to win this quarter And some of the shops are hanging like three point seven, like plus two seventy, which is bananas.

If you can find a quarter price for her catch Q two that is north of plus two hundred, that is the best bet of the of the outrights in my opinion. And what he did in Halla was was extremely impressive. Uh, you know what he's got right now in terms of timing with Serve is awesome to watch. He's we know he has kind of you know, championship mentality, having taken already a Master's one thousand in his career.

Um and uh, honestly, he beat Federer on center court at Wimbledon, which is something that I think gives you the confidence to, you know, maybe even give Djokovic a match. Who do you have a semi fin Who do you have as the biggest challenger that in that quarter? Who would you have? Honestly, I think they're the top half of that section. It could be anyone, and I like a guy like Francis Tiafa, who plays his best tennis

in best of five could surprise. Yeah, there's somebody's going to surprise in the top half of that quarter and her catch is gonna just eat them for a lunch in the quarterfinal. That's my general. You think if or catch takes on like an Ugo oom Bear, he would eat him the lunch. Ugle and Bear could Ugo and Bear doesn't have the quality to do to what to

go to a semifinal at a slam. Lovely guy like great player French brain though, uh, and I think realistically, uh, do you you don't know the old joke about the old tennis joke French brain. There's yeah, there's one French brain among all the men's tennis players and they just share it. You see who has it that day. That's that's it's not even a good joke. But the front

the Frenchman's tennis don't scare me really. But the Yeah, Ugo could he could definitely make the quarterfinal here, but I think her cash would be minus against him probably, like that's that would be my guess, and what that market would look like, I mean realistically, yeah, I don't really. No one's dare jump in. I'm sorry. Yeah, they played at Heller, Yeah, and that was straight sets for for her catch Um, do you have a market chance? Yeah it was. He was about one point five that day.

But I think that's that's changed a lot in the last sort of week since then, you know, having having done well in that tournament and also then unbear losing to Montero in Eastbourne and the fact that will be best to five. I think you probably will get that sort of one to five, one to six ish in a slam against against Dumbart, like like Juicy says, and don't forget with Humbert as well, that he's only one to his last ten matches, so so that he hasn't had a great year at all. The defending he was

a defending champion. Heller wasn't he I believe going into this year were not mistaken. Oh, I was testing memory. They're the same. I couldn't. I couldn't have told you and bear every a title. He won a grass title last year. I just check, Yeah, you're actually right final Yeah yeah, and Alexander spars on the player as well. Um, but no idea think that. Yeah. I agree with with Drew completely. That's that's the standout for me. It's it's openly in terms of the workout, who faces him and

to win the to win the quarter. But it's for me cut and dried. As to him being an overwhelming favorite in Q two, would you say Nori was the biggest threat in his his bottom? Don't ask Drew about Nori, Dan, We don't do that. Nori. He's on upset nor. He's on upset alert every round, Dan, Drew, Tell tell Dan what you call him? Yes, scam scam nor Sam No, never, guy doesn't doesn't have a good win in his career. I'd like, seriously find go, go find his best ever win.

I just I'm just saying, yeah, he'd he only Yeah, that's ready Basila Shapley for a title, right, that's true. Yeah, you got an Indian Wells, you got an Indian Wales title. That was the softest job and uh yeah. His biggest wins at Bautista did in Davis Cup on clay. When anything that's that's about. That's what I'm fine with that as as a character that answer, yes, yeah, fine with that. Losses when he's been a heavy dog, that's for sure. Yeah,

a lot of those. Do you agree with the sentiment that I had before, which is with with apologies to Stefanos, tits about here, Um that peak curios peak, barretteny would be the match there. Q three is the quarter of death. Um, every every match in Q three, virtually every step of the way after round one is going to be must watch. Um. All of those look good. Everything looks good there. Barrett Teeny was a player who I had cautious optimism for

when we started the grass cycle. He played his way into form at Stuttgard an impressive fashion is served by the end of that Stute Guard title. His serve was unreturnable and then he backed it up with a really impressive week in in London at Queens. UM. I thought I was like watching carefully every one of those Barrett Tenny matches and Queens, expecting that the layoff was eventually going to impact him in some way, that he was gonna slip up at some stage, like just get tired.

Even never happened. He was incredible the whole week. Um, and when the going got tough against Kudla, he found another level in that match. Kudla, by the way, played his best tennis. I've seen him playing a long a long time in that match in particular. Um, he kind of treated in in Queens in general. UM, but I think, yeah, I think the very teeny with a favorable draw, I'm I'm futures for him at this tournament, but he didn't get one. His third quarter is going to be tough.

He's gonna have tough matches at multiple steps of the way to get to a semifinal. Hair Um, Curios Sispas was the best grass tennis match we got this whole season so far. That match at Hall of was absolutely awesome. Um. For whatever it was worth, the tournament organizers gave Curios so much leash like they let him get away with wild, wild stuff on court, but in doing so we got

a really great match, which is always fun. Um. The idea that Curios is somehow mentally got it figured out and is going to be able to win seven matches at this tournament is insane. That's a complete forest. Know the leash that he got Inhala on his way to almost winning a title. No chance he gets that here, No no chance, and so he'll have a meltdown at some stage, hopefully not, hopefully not before giving us a

super entertaining match against um Uh against Sisipass again. I really want to see that head to head again will be just great tennis and entertaining as hell. And Sisipas honestly is sort of the perfect opponent for Curios in terms of bringing out his best and his most entertaining tennis. So very hopeful we see that um winner of that he tastes. I can't. I don't have the draw exactly from me. He goes up against Batista a goo next is that right would go up against it? Likely? I

can't remember to sift through here. Yeah, so one whatever, A bunch of those guys in the in the Sisipas section are live, but I think Bear teeny ultimately comes through prices. Price isn't going to be good enough about it, I don't think. Yeah, Bautista Goot is is in like a chap of all Off little Pot, yeah, whereas Tits of Pots is in the Curios cressy pot if I'm not mistaken or no, maybe I have that wrong. No Curios Yeah yeah, Curios is in the titsupas uh pod.

So they would meet Curios is round three, round four, and round and and quarterfinal. All three of those are extremely toss head to heads. Correct. I can't remember who would you play after sisuppossibly gets through Curios. He would play Do to Do to Do Shop all Off or Baltisto Goots Yeah, yeah, I think, but I think Bautista

Goot's got to be the guy there. So yeah, I think realistically Curios probably takes out suppose maybe takes out a good but a Goo is sort of the patient iron man, kind of happy to go five, kind of a player that really frustrates Curios generally, So a Google probably gets in there, and if it's a good Barrettiny bettine a is a you know, is cleanly through to the semis in my opinion, But um, you know, I think I don't know. I guess have you been as

impressed with bettany this run up as I am down? Yeah, for sure, absolutely, And I feel that if he plays Curios in the quarterfinals, then Curious will have the potential to be quite frustrated by how straw Serve Bettina is and the lack of opportunities he's going to get talking about wear him down mentally, and I'd make Bettina a solid favorite probably in that match as well. Yeah, so

I think I guess where I'm going to draw. Aside, I had Bear teeny as the clear cut second choice for Wimbledon title after Djokovic, but with the draw being this tough, I don't think the price is worth betting in now right now? Yeah, so yeah, I'm with you, the with you that, And Drew, you don't like the flyer on the dog, do you? I mean, the way the tennis is gone to this point has been me doubting the doll and the flushing it back in my face. So I'm gonna I'm gonna keep I gotta keep playing

the bit right. Nadal doesn't have a chance here in my opinion. My Nadal Wimbledon, Nadal Nadal calendar Slam this year just bankrupt my entire tennis injuries. No, I can't um. When Nadal was peaking is my My highest ever rating for Nadal was I believe seen after he swept clay and was untouchable in front in French Open. Right going into that grass season. I was high enough on him overall as a player that I thought he should have been the favorite to win Wimbledon, even though it's not

his best surface. And even when he was that good, he could not get it done here. So I think the days of Nadal contending for a title at Wimbledon are long gone. And he may make some you know,

he'll he'll have some fun matches in this tournament. Surely he'll make it miserable for some players who are uh, you know, trying to make their names on grass in the fourth quarter surely, um, But I will be kind of leading the charge on Chili at a dog price head to head versus Nadal if that's your quarterfinal, and I think chill It should be the favorite for the fourth quarter, even though his last match was not impressive.

So then will you bet Chili at a at a quarter for the quarter, I didn't love the prices I saw, Um, I would need better than two to one, but you will bet or cuts to win the second quarter. The rest of that second quarter look to me looks too weak, and I think, yeah, so I think overall the men's draw is chalky. I think Djokovic over her Catch is a likely semifinal on the top. I think Arettini over

Chile is the likely semifinal on the bottom. And then I think what looks to be potentially a boring two weeks of men's tennis will end with a really really good final between Djokovic and Bettini. Barrette almost got there last year, right. People will say that because people. People will say that because the score line, But that never really felt in doubt watching it life. I agree with you. Did you kind of felt like Djokovic was kind of

playing with this food for the first set. Gave him one and then he and then he turned and he turned it up and it was it was sea later, buddy playing with his food like that? All right? Dan? Anything to add, yeah, A couple a couple of bits

and pieces. Um, I just I just got the better for prices is up now on my someone has placed or assume it's one person at least has has has placed a twenty six thousand pounds order to back Sits a pass at thirty six is which would be the is the is the next price on the first price on the pink side. Um, So someone is obviously very keen about that and over eleven hundred pounds waiting on her cuts eighteens as well to back him too, and just had a three thousand pounds at Bretton at seven

point eight. So a bit of market sentiment there, perhaps m one one looking at the kind of head to head games a little bit and one of the often often times in these early rounds are slams. You kind of you find a find a match between kind of two guys ranked outside the top fifty who but maybe the values in those matches rather than rather than any

of the big names. And I don't know if you've followed the Ilky Challenge of this last week drew with zesie Bergs winning the event and getting a wild card by by winning that event. So he whoever wins the Eukley Challenger gets the wild card into Twin Wooden and he'd beat suck popper in and Seppi from quarterfinals onward. After after qualifying and uh he plays Jack Draper from Great Britain, who very well in in challenge events. In fact, he actually beat Bergs in Saint Brick. I think it

was indoors in the final in March. Drope has done very well indoors. But if you look at and the people, I think the reason why I've highlighted this game a little bit, it's because being British and being knowing how the British react to this type of thing. He got to the semifinals of Eastbourne and he will be getting

a lot of coverage in the run up to the tournament. Now, if you look at the the players he beat in in Eastbourne, he'd been a very out of touch Jensen Brooksby, he beat Garish Swartsman who's no grass quarter and he beat Ryan Peniston who is a very mediocre English player and was a heavy favorite to do so. So he's hardly beaten who's who have of glass court tennis to get to the semifinal where he lost to Cressey in

the semifinal. The other tournaments he lost to Rousselvori round two of Queen's and lost in round two of the Service and Challenger to Peniston after beating a guy from Britain who has ranked outside the top three hundred in the first round. So I guess what I'm trying to say is I think the markets and the media attention will be on Draper for this. And he's playing against the guys bann Inform coming in having one a Glass Court Challenger title and at the moment I'm looking at

the early prices and it's about one point three on Draper. Wow. So yeah, one wants to watch the thing with the market anyway that any Have you looked at first round matches at all, Drew, I have not yet. Only one I thought about betting was there's an interesting up and coming player that the that's been fun to kind of follow.

Taiwanese guy Jason Sang. He is a he was a junior champ on both play and grass, which is one of those like somebody like this that's like the blend of bench it like path right, Like a player who wins both of the clay and grass juniors always catches my eye, like WHOA like this guy? You know there's something there and he's mostly stuck at the challenger level. Um again Jason Sang, and he got matched up against I think a very beautiful UM British qualifier. He was

about minus on the open end. My my numbers said it should have been closer to minus two hundred, so uh, Sang definitely got my attention around one. UM and then uh, you know outside of that, I haven't gone through the prices very carefully that that's a great Shot'll just have a lift at this now, that's right, He's he's probably badly even challenge a level. Let Yeah, he's sayings weird because he elected instead of taking his game to grasp for the round to Wimbledon, he stayed on the Jake

Clay challenger circuit. Um. He had mixed success on that. I don't know why he hasn't pushed harder onto Grass personally, but I think he does have a level that's a lot higher than Alistair. Greg. Yeah, I'm with you, sure this great shot? Well all right, I love it. I think we've all learned that Rofanadal is going to make a deep run. And Torment drew congratulations on Yeah Slam number three thirty six, thirty million year old Roan the doll. I'll catch you in like in thirteen days and be like,

well there he is Drew again. Um yeah, I love that. Your Cotsah conviction for sure. Yeah, um find that. Find that second quarter price. That will be your best bet. It's gonna be awesome. Women's and men's. Can't wait Wimbledon starts. What are you talking about Monday? On Monday England time, Yes, which will be I guess, yeah, the Three Vegas. Yeah. I was gonna say, really early in the morning our time here in the Pacific time zone. I got an

important question for Dan. Yes, what is Dan's opinion on the end of middle Sunday off manic Monday? Oh? Good, good question. Actually quite like the Sunday off. I don't know, yeah, because I don't have any you know, Sunday feelings in terms of being a special day or anything like that. I just like the day off to regroup. So it's so different to the Grand Slams. And you know, you have the French Open, which I really hate. The first Sunday start um with with would I like here? I

like here? The old structure? Why did they make that change? Why did they get rid of manic Monday? They're trying. They're trying to ruin ruin the lives of us handicappers, and you know, we need a day off to spend with our families, and Sunday is a great day for that. Like Dan said, you need to regroup right in the

middle of the tournament. And boyle boy, like, what a what a treat to get mac Monday where every single fourth round match is happening on the same day like that is usually it's usually the best day of tennis in the entire calendar year. I would agree, we don't get it this year. So yeah, kind of a bummer. Dan. What does Betfair say about Paulo bon Caro being the number one pick in the NBA draft? Do you have any other information on that? Oh man? All right, well, guys, listen,

I appreciate that. Again, there's no one on planet Earth. I would rather do this within YouTube. Dan weston uh at Tennis Ratings on Twitter doing his thing for Betfair still and then Drew Dinsick at Wale Underscore Capper, where again you can find him on two podcasts, Deep Dive with Andy Molitor and of course NBC Sports at the Edge, which he does with Sarah proman gentlemen. I'm sure we'll be in touch during the fortnight of Wimbledon, and I appreciate it very much. Good luck to all, good luck

with everything. Thank you guys, Bill, Alexander, thank you so much for listening. Next podcast, I'm guessing is a Major League Baseball Q two derivatives pod. Will talk to you then