Beating the Book: 2022 Week 7 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

Then Thursday morning, October is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod week number seven in the National Football League, It's Gil Alexander H Glad you could join us for this. It has been a fine year with the UH with the best bets, not so much on the teasers that continued. UH. Staples of the show Jeff Pearls, who is not visually accessible to us today because he's feeling under the weather. He is kind enough to join us even feeling that

way under the weather. And then Todd wish and have court stenographer on the show from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh. P A. You guys doing okay? Jeff, You're feeling better, Gil, I I can, I can fight through an hour to be with you, Todd, and there and no, no, no problem with that, and and uh and uh. It's a rare opportunity where the New York Jets are actually sitting in over five hundred six weeks in How could I how could I miss a miss a megupon with

that happening? Right? They got players now, man, it's amazing what you could do with players. And uh, he referred to Aaron. Aaron shot the ladies and gentlemen kind enough to be our rotating guest. He's been with us before in previous years. He is the founder of Football Outsiders Analytics Juggernaut in both pro football and in college football as well these days. Thanks for being here, Aaron, appreciate it, man, Hey,

thanks for having me. I wish I had thought things through a little bit before I agreed to do this week because this week's games are lousy. Yes, but there's still I mean, there's still plenty of angles on them, so there's still plenty to talk about with them. But

I did realize I do the week when like two of the best teams in the league are not playing. That's right, we did we I do guessing lines on Monday with Chris Andrews at every game that came over, like, oh, this is terrible, right, Although I guess we'll get to Thursday I Football here, but tarly, I guess Thursday Night Football compared to the last two Thursdays might be considered a real banger by comparison. But I don't know if

we can predict these teams. That I have to say to the Cardinals before we get to that, Todd, what are the records thus far this year? The records are gilly with another solid two and one to move to thirteen and five. Man, Can I just say this though? Can I just say this before you do? All the bounces are going my way Like all those other years with the Plinko bounces didn't go my way. I wasn't done then. I'm not smart. Now, That's what I would say to that, just to keep it real. That's your

p that's your p S A thank you approach. Trip. Jeffrey took a one in two this past week to follow a ten and eight after a stellar six and three starts. So I am gaining on Jeffrey. Uh and I had a nice two and one. You go uh to move me to nine and nine on the teaser world, We're really struggling. Two and four for you, Jeffrey, one in five. I haven't won a teaser this year. Unbelievable. The guest is three and three on the teasers and nine and nine on the record. Wait, who's who's two

and four all the teasers? May or Jeff You are two and four and Jeff is one in five and you're oh in six on teasers? Has not want a teaser? Dude, at this point you should try to go oh and eighteen on these. You should tell But I've been the last two years. I couldn't lose a teaser all of a sudden, I can't win a teasers and just keep

doing what you're doing. You're going. That has been the thing though, That's been the weird thing about this year, right we're doing I mean collectively, that's not bad on Best Bets at all. By the way, what's the guest chair on Best Bets and teaser nine and nine and three and three? Oh wow? Okay, so the bits of the guest Jared's taking a bit of a hit backwards, all right, Aaron, you're starting from five. Both of these alright. Uh yeah, so it's a good good position to be in,

not not too much pressure. Um. Let us start then with, oh, we we like to do the dumbbell of the week. Dumbbell of the week, Jason Jason Kin, that's his week, He's made his week. He's so happy with that. It's like looney Tunes thing. Alright, So we do this every week and we're like, Okay, who's the dumbest coach? What was the dumbest thing I coach did this week? Um?

And we were all kind of and this analytics sort of buck this, right, some of the bots with Brandon Staley going forward on fourth and one against Cleveland, we thought it was the dumbell of the week, but some of the analytics bots said no, it was actually the right thing to do. I'm not really sure I was with that. What was it this week? Who was who was the dumbbell of the week? Aaron, I'm not sure.

We didn't even prep you for this, But was there a coaching in game move that you thought was particularly ridiculous this past week? Yeah? I'm not remembering very well. Yeah, me neither this week's moves. I have a terrible memory for this stuff like if you asked me on Monday, I can probably give five of them, and by Thursday I've completely forgotten. Yeah, I know, this is the one thing I forgot to mention to you because we should throw it in. Todd, what was yours? Do you remember?

You know, I didn't notice anything this week that was tremendously egregious. Um, that really bothered me a lot. So

I didn't have one this week. Yeah, there was a few little things. I'm sure Jeff remembers. Well what he got, Jeff, Yeah, well, you know what, it wasn't the only The worst thing this week was the McCarthy idiotic thing with the fourth and one where he didn't challenge and then they threw an incomplete bath where they why where they clearly had the first down. It's probably the worst thing in the week. This was really not a horrible all things considered. I

was just gonna give up. I was just gonna give my dumbbell the Kingsberry because you score zero offensive touchdowns against that defense. What the hell are you doing? I mean, that's that's really that's really the way I was going to play it this week. Gil, What do you want to say, Aaron I was gonna say. The thing about McCarthy is, it's not really a failure by McCarthy as much as it is a failure by whoever is up in the box who watches the TV angles and says

to McCarthy, you should challenge this. That person screwed up. Yeah, and that led to Philadelphia's first touchdown in that game, put him up seven to nothing. Um, if I'm if I'm not mistaken, wasn't there something in the Chargers game in the same way that happened there? I'm not sure. I can't remember now it's all but basically because we can't remember, there wasn't anything that really leapt off the page. But there was a few of those. Uh this week.

So Thursday Night Football, I mentioned that it was before we get before we get to Thursday, and I have a good in game one that I wanted to quickly talk about the This is something that I don't do often, but once in a while, when I do it and it works out, it feels really good. Um. I actually had took over forty five and a half on the end game in the Denver game at ten nothing Monday

Night Football, Denver went up ten nothing. I took over forty five and a half, thinking Okay, now the Chargers are gonna have to come back, and so I'll take the over here. The Chargers then went on an eighteen play drive to finally get a touchdown, and then at halftime the score was thirteen to ten. At that point,

I did not like my bet. I didn't like the fact that the Chargers realized that they couldn't throw the ball down the field because the Denver pass rush was way too difficult and they were just dinking and dunking, and I felt if they were going to score, they weren't going to score a lot, especially when they had only averaged three point seven yards of play in the first half. Uh Conversely, Denver had average eight point one yard to play, but most of it was on two big,

big plays that they got kind of lucky on. And so to me, I was no longer happy with my forty five and a half over, and I had an opportunity now at halftime with the score thirteen ten, to go under forty six and a half. So I had an opportunity for a middle and I like the under. So what I ended up doing is betting double back the other way. So at that point, now I had a position on the under forty six and a half, and of course, if the first part of the bet,

you know, landed forty six, I could get a miracle middle. Anyways, it ended up being the right thing because the second half did play out kind of in that manner, a low scoring second half. And and I especially like to, you know, teams that are under teams that play over in the first half or in vice versa, I like to kind of you know, that's another factor because I

feel Denver's a real under team. But anyways, um, you know, I don't do this often enough, but in this particular case, I did do it, and and it did work out due to the fact that you know, you can change your opinion in the middle of your bet to two things. Weren't one going back to the UH the Mike McCarthy not challenging, Just to clarify, it wasn't. It wasn't the decision the lack of a challenge that made it seven nothing. It was a fourteen and nothing game at the time.

UH it was fourth and inches from UH their own thirty four after ceedee Lamb was questionably ruled short of the sticks on third down, Dallas didn't challenge that down fourteen to nothing, nine thirty left in the second quarter. Then the Russian complete pass intended for Payton hendershot on fourth down. That led to a Jake Elliott fifty one yard field weld that made it seventeen and nothing. That's

what we're referring to their um. The other the other thing about end game I don't think we make this end game point enough. Sometimes the best way to end game bed is when you have, pardon me, when you have a shorter runway. So that's San Diego. Excuse San Diego. The Chargers game against the Broncos. It was the score was nine excuse me. The score was sixteen to thirteen at the time, so twenty nine points were on the board.

There was eight fifty one left in the game, eight twenty one maybe left in the game, and at that point the total was set at thirty seven and a half. When you have a twenty one left in the game at that point, you needed nine points to get beaten on and over, so two scores. The shorter runway is always a great time to make an end game bet. It seems like an obvious thing. Too many betters. But there's gonna be some newer betters, newish newish betters who

are listening to this for the first time. Oftentimes within game bets. As long as your runway is shorter, the volatility lessons and so your ability your rate of succeeding in game bets ought to there for increase. So at twenty nine points I went under because with that short of a runway, you can start to really wrap your brain around well, you know, if it's fourth and long, they have a hurt Kicker and Dustin Hopkins maybe you know, maybe they use him them. If it's fourth in short,

they're not going to use Dustin Hopkins. And if if Los Angeles messes up and doesn't get the fourth down,

that will be zero added to the point total. Denver won't be incentivized to matriculate the ball down in the field at any rapid rate, or if or if Los Angeles does get you know, the touchdown eventually, I don't have any confidence in Denver being able to score a touchow because they would have needed to touch down at that point to ruin your bet um with only two yeah, with only two possessions left, that's I'm saying for vetters, yes,

that worked out for me. Sometimes it doesn't. But when you have a shorter runway and you can really, really determined this team is going to have this many possessions left, and this many possessions left, it's gonna be great. And yes, I know it went into overtime, but even if it goes into overtime, if the team that gets the ball first doesn't score that touchdown, chances are you're only gonna have field goals from that point forward. And that's what

happened anyway. Those are good. Those are good I think in game points to make. Let's talk about Thursday night football. It is a it's not a it's not a terrible matchup like last week on paper, like the Bears and the Commanders, but it is two teams that, my goodness, the Saints and the Cardinals, even at their best, what what do you make of them? And tonight we have

a lot of injuries for the Saints. Aaron Jarvis Landry is out, Michael Thomas is out, Andrew's Pete Adam Troutman, and maybe most significantly, Marshawn Lattimore out for the Saints. And the reason that might be most significant because DeAndre Hopkins is back from a six game p D suspension for the Cardinals, James Conners the game time decision, Robby Anderson newly acquired from the Panthers. He'll be very limited no matter what. But all of those things in the mix,

what do you make of this? Cardinals favored by two and a half? You play anything here? The one thing I would say is that most of those receivers have generally been out for the Saints for a few weeks now, so I think it's not Uh, it's not like you need to drop your opinion of the Saints too much from what you've already seen from them the last couple of weeks, because we've already seen a couple of weeks of them without these receivers. Latimore being out is new,

I think. Um, I'm kind of staying away from this. Are our numbers? Like like the Saints. The problem is

it's it's difficult to know how much to adjust for injuries, especially non quarterback injuries. Right, Sometimes they don't really mean anything, and sometimes they're really important. Um and uh. And I would also like the science Saints better if the line was three rather than two and a half. So, um,

both of these teams have been bad this year. The difference is, you know, at this point in the season, we're still incorporating in our metrics preseason projections at a pretty good amount, because you know, our research has shown that even six and seven weeks into the season, your preseason projections are worth about as much as the knowledge that you have from the six weeks that have been played. And in the preseason, we thought the Saints were a

much better defense than Arizona. So we still kind of think the Saints are a better defense than Arizona. So that's why we like the Saints. But as far as how they've actually played this year, I think we have the Saints like twenty six and the Cardinals like they've both been on both sides of the ball. By the way,

you had a tweet I should point this out. You had a tweet this week, um, where you were looking at your d v O a top ten d v O eight Football Outsiders probably most famous stat, proprietary stat, and how many teams in the in the top ten loss? As it turned out in the end, I think seven out of the top ten teams from last week lost, And then I'm not pointed that out to knock d v o A and anyway, I'm just pointing that out

to it was that kind of weak. Yeah, yeah, Buccaneers losing and uh San Francisco losing and of course a couple of them lost to each other, right, Dallas lost to Philly in Kansas City lost to Buffalo. Do we do you feel at all? I feel incoming. I feel it's in coming upon me to ask you this question.

And Jeff, Jeff Parls and I were talking about this earlier in the week that when when an NFL season is like this, like Pete Rosel's dream of parody coming alive in a way that I don't want to be person at the moment, but I don't quite remember it being this way. Survivor is a great sort of reflection of that. You know, sixty plus entries and Circus Survivor

after six weeks, there's less than four hundred left. Like, I mean, you can't even pick a game, just on a team to win and keep it going, you know, uh, with any sort of success percentage, why six less than seven percent of survivor entries remain in that less than

seven percent. There's other survivor pools where it's like three um, and so I wonder, I wonder from an your perspective, from an analytics perspective, do you ever have the thought in your head of like, wow, when it's this Michugna, do I feel like I'm spinning my wheels with the analytics, like it's so difficult? Do you ever have that thought? No? I mean I think there are still I think there are still advantages to find, and there are still differences

between teams. You just have to accept that they're going to be smaller than usual. Like I'll give you another stat. The standard deviation of d v o A is the lowest ever after six weeks. Right, so if you look at our stat for every team after six weeks going back all the way to this is the year with the least amount of standard deviation. Like it's just the teams are just pooled together. But there are still some

that are better and some that are worse. And and you've got advantages because we know which teams are better or worse even though they're three and three, or like which two and four teams are really two and four, and which two and four teams have actually played well? And so I think there's advantages to be found in in the nooks and crowning crannies. Thomas is English, Muffins, Todd and jeff anything anything on tonight's game. I am,

I am staying away till in the game for me. Yeah, go ahead, Jeff No, you know about the same thing I leaned Saints. I you know, I'm I am really down on this Cardinal the team. I mean, you can't score. I know your guys are out, but you can't score on Seattle's defense. I mean, everybody was scoring on Seattle's defense. Teams were like going up and down the field like it was like Candy in New Orleans. Saints had her thirty two already scored another touch. It was like unbelievable.

The Lions scored like a hundred on them, I think, and and Arizona couldn't do anything. I mean, that was just an embarrassment offensively. And okay, so they're gonna get Hopkins back, but all the said, now you know everything's gonna be okay. I don't like this Cardinal team at all. If I if I I mean, if I had to bet a pre game, I would be on the Saints.

Jeffrey nothing here, nothing here at all, And uh, I just want to go back to the conversation that we were just having then you and Aaron were just having because you and I talked exactly talked about this early in the week, where Aaron, this is. This is not a shot at at you or or the folks a pro football focus in a year that and at last point you made is a really good point in a

year that's just so so even. It really does feel like that the models are a little more off than they usually would be this year, and that really doesn't have to do with the models themselves. It just has to do with the point that that that we were all just making this league other than at least for me and I know Aaron, you and Buffalo in Philadelphia at the top, I'll throw Kansas City in there. Those three teams aren't a different a different level as everybody

else is. Once you get the four and Gil, I know you, You and Kelly do this on a numbers game still at the power rankings, and it kind of plays out like this. If you told me one of fifteen different teams was the fourth best team in the league right now, I would sit there and listen. So Yeah, it just feels like there's all right, there's three teams at the top, there's probably three teams at the bottom, definitely two in Carolina and Houston at least for me,

that are pretty clearly worse than everybody else. But then once you get past those five teams, I'm well, anyone can beat anyone, and that's kind of what makes this league again hard to bed. And we're doing a pretty damn good job as it is, the three of us in the guests this year, but it can provide for some very weird results, as we have seen plenty so

far through the first six weeks. Yeah, one of the reasons the models seems so off is that so many have been one score games, so they've been allow out of like the underlying model says Team A outplayed Team B pretty substantially, and then Team B wins by two points. Right,

There's a lot of that going on this year. So I I do feel like over the long term we'll see the models will be more right than wrong as far as you know, for example, that Baltimore is the best of the three and three teams, right, Like, I know that's what my model has, and that's what I think a lot of them have. The Ravens are pretty good among the three and three teams, and I think we'll see that as time goes on, that that would

be proven right. But it's hard because this year hass are so grouped together and and there have been so many close games. Who is your thirty two and your thirty one? Who is my thirty two and my thirty one? We have Carolina thirty two. I like that, and we have Chicago thirty one. I would agree with that. I was surprised that Jeff said to Carol and that you went Houston thirty one. I agree with that completely. Carolina

thirty two, Chicago thirty one. Um, you know it's it's gil what we're real fast, and I know I know we were. We we got to get to the regular picks. Errands brought up something that's really important to everything. All these games are so close, which kind of makes our our lack of success with teasers even more amazing. It does. It's been this here because all these games, it's for five weeks. It's the most games decided by by by

a touchdown are less so far in league history. Most games that had a that had a three point margin and through your less point margin entering the fourth quarter through five weeks. Uh. In theory, it should be a great teaser here and and it has not been. It's been a terrible Stanford long here. And it has been a terrible Stanford long hear and in theory though, like, yeah,

it should, we should do better on the teasers. But then there's always one team that that torpedoes everything on a week to week basis, right, So um, all right, let's get to the best bets, sides or totals. We'll snake this. Aaron, what's your first? By first one, I was just talking about how much my numbers like the Ravens. So I'm going with even minus six and a half against Cleveland, Ravens minus six and a half against Cleveland.

You're down on Cleveland. We have Cleveland twenty one, including thirty feet on defense, and we have Baltimore third. So you know, I do think that over time we're going to see the weird fourth quarter high jinks that Baltimore has gotten into are going to fade away. Teams that collapse in the fourth quarter early in the season do not tend to do that all year, and they're just they're pretty good team Baltimore. As Aaron is pointing out, I want to get the stat here. This is from

ESPN Stats in information Baltimore. I can't find it right now, but of all the teams that have led by double digits the first six weeks of the season, Baltimore is the first of those teams to end up three and three in the history of the National Football League something like that. I'm paraphrasing, but I think that was it. Todd, what's your number one? I'm going under forty nine in the Lions and Cowboys. I'm gonna riding these Cowboy games

under because they're to me, a classic underteam, a fantastic defense, a really good defense. Now, granted, Philadelphia did score on them, but Philadelphia has been an outstanding team this year. So I'm gonna throw that in the garbage and I'm gonna look at all the other teams that Dallas dominated defensively this year. And with that said, before, you know, they got down big and then they clawed their way back in that game with their defense holding you know, Philadelphia

field goals and stuff. So I I really love this Cowboy defense. And you know, along with the fact that they're gonna Cooper rushed game management the game, and you know, in effect, because they didn't. He didn't game manage the game and gave up those turnovers early is why they lost that Eagles game. Had he just thrown in complete passes and not interceptions, you know, they would have been in that game all the way to the end. Um So,

to me, they can hold the Detroit offense down. I know Detroit has been, you know, pretty good it offensively this year, but I think they're gonna hold almost all the teams down offensively. I mean, they really held the Rams down and the Rams. You know, obviously the Rams haven't been the Rams, but still, I mean, look at all these games the Buccaneers, they held them down. They they're really holding teams down. So I think they can hold the Lions down. And you know, they're not going

to score a ton. Uh So forty nine, that's you know, that's a number that's kind of reserved more for a high scoring game for both teams. So I'm gonna go with under forty nine Alliance Cowboys. Going back to the totals there, Jeff number one, I'm gonna take the Atlanta

Falcons getting six and a half at Cincinnati. Now, I know at some point Atlanta is going to not cover a game and the only undefeated team against the spread, But if you watch the Falcons, now, yes, there was a fluky touchdown mixed in there against uh against the forty Niners where the Niners had to turn over to turn into seven the other way. But the Atlanta Falcons, and we've talked about this, they were not a dragon league like everyone thought they were going to be going

into this season, and they're five hundred. I think they're live in the NFC South until Temple works their works through their stuff, which they may not. This might just be full on karma for Tom Brady everything that has happened for this year that he had to squeeze one more NFL season out of him for no apparent reason. But look, I think the Falcons, at least at least offensively,

are better we than we expected. Defensively, they played well last week against the bang of Niners team, and the Bengals have shown me nothing to say that they should be a touchdown almost a touchdown favorite against anyone that isn't at the complete bottom of the league. So I'll take the six and a half with the Falcons, and look, until I've proven otherwise. On this Falcon team, I think Arthur Smith. I think Arthur Smith knows what he's doing

at least coaching offense guys. We've seen that um this year where even though Marriott has been okay, he's been significantly better than what Matt Ryan game last year too. So I'll take the Falcons getting six and a half Mariota thirteen of fourteen last week passing. I think the fourteenth was the incompletion, the incompletion, his final pass, inconsequential threat with the legs. That's the guy that I wanted Washington to get uh in free agency. I wanted them

to get Mariota. Of course they were left with Carson wasn't not left with them. They traded a king's ransom form and now it's the Taylor Heineke experience moving forward, which I'm pumped about also, but we'll see how that works out. I find this week to be the toughest week thus far. Um. I think every week thus far, I've had like, oh, I like this guy, like five,

then I liked three. There was no question coming into the Megapod what I was gonna pick It's a little more difficult for me this week, um, but I am going to say Number one for me will be Monday night the New England Patriots. I am going to lay the wood with the Patriots. Minus eight is what I'm saying, boys, Yes,

minus eight on the Patriots against the Bears. I said earlier when I picked the Patriots against the Lions a couple of weeks ago, and the Patriots rolled the Lions, my comment was, I don't know why Bill Belichick is gonna be Dan Campbell. I just know that he's going to be Dan Campbell, and I feel that way about

this matchup here between Belichick and Matt aberflus Um. I even if you recall when we when we talked about that game on the Megapod, I said at the time, I don't dislike the Bailey zappy in Mac Jones thing out as most people now. At that time, people thought I was nuts about that. But one of the things we brought up on this show was our our nonsense metric that we came up with the itch interceptions that should have happened. And if you watched Mac Jones, he

was drilling opponents in the chest. There was a couple of picks six Is that didn't happen? He got so lucky on those Bailey Zappy has been everything they could have possibly wanted him to be. I don't know if there's a quarterback, I'll go ahead, Eric, I was gonna say, would it change your mind if you knew that? Mike Reese reported this morning that they do believe that mac Jones will be ready to go Monday. Oh no, is that gonna happen for real? That is the story from

Mike Reese. And nobody is more plugged into the Patriots than that is for sure. Mike res always fascinating to listen to. Um, it's not going to dissuade me. I think they will get it done with either quarterback. But I will take the Patriots minus the eight. And I don't think the market thinks there's a difference between the two quarterbacks either. Is the point? The line hasn't moved since the story. Yeah, so listen to bears Zappy. Zappy

was outstanding at Western Kentucky. Could you imagine of what what he would have been behind the Alabama offensive line. That's the thing with a lot of these you know, Trevor Lawrences and these guys, they're playing with such high level offensive lines and and and skill position players that we just anoint them. We just annoyed Trevor law Trevor Lawrence, he's the greatest. Of course, of course, you know, yeah,

of course he looks great. Throw in a guy who's fantastic from Western Kentucky behind the Clemson offensive line, he would have looked great too, So you know, that's what it drives me crazy. But here's the thing. He also had to face sun Belt pass rushers, whereas whoever is behind the Alabama offensive line has to face SEC pass rushers. That's fair, that's fair, but you can't take the other side out of it as well. Listen, I and Todd, by the way, no one said the following sentence more

than I did about Trevor Lawrence. Are we sure he's generational? When the draft was happening, like, are we really sure? And I would get the sentence like three quarters of the way in, and we had some people who would like stop me and be like, of course he is. I don't know. I was like, I don't know that he is. Anyway, I'm on the Patriots. I'm with Aaron that the Bears are are just dreadful. Um this Justin Fields.

By the way, that that NFL Network panel after the game, Charissa Thompson, uh Tony Gonzalez, but specifically Richard Sherman and Andrew Whitworth and who am I forgetting in there as well? Oh, Ryan Fitzpatricks. They did such a wonderful job of breaking down Justin Fields and the Bears offense the other night, and I couldn't have agreed more. And again this being reared on, you know, the great X and os of Joe Gibbs, where he was able to have the humility of I am going to Taylor I X as a

OS to my personnel. It is not about my system being infallible. Whatever my personnel is. That's how I'm gonna tailor this. And by the way, if we're wrong in the first half, we're gonna adjust it too. Those are great coaches, not the Steve Spurits. My way is the only way, and we're gonna pitch it and catch it and all that. Just to use an extreme example, but they were saying about Luke Getsy, the offensive coordinator. Remember,

Justin Fields was not their guy. They didn't draft him, and so they seem really intent on making him successful their way be a pocket passer, be successful out of the pocket when it's so obvious that if you roll him out or if you let him use his legs, he's virtually unstoppable that way. I don't know about unstoppable, but he's great. He's elite that way. Ryan Fitzpatrick does

this great, does these great breakdowns on things. He also said the same thing about Twa, where he's like, hey, TWA's elite accuracy is what gets him, you know, the success that he has. He doesn't have any of the other things. So hearing that from Ryan Fitzpatrick drove it home. I'm with the Patriots minus eight snaking and again, I don't love this car, but I'm gonna take the Seahawks plus the five and a half. Do I get the hook with the Seahawks against the Chargers? Yeah? Five and

a half? Um, And this is not you know, this is listen on a card that I don't love. I just don't trust the Chargers to cover against anybody with that many points. It looks like Keenan Allen is not going to go. And by the way, the Chargers have a by coming up. They ought to just let him heal that hamstring once again for another additional couple of weeks, since you have that opportunity, and so without him, and again I don't know, like if he comes back, will

they'd be magically better? Maybe? Maybe not, But I don't trust this team to cover any numbers. And the Seahawks again do the thing. If you want to wow your friends at a party, put Gino Smith blind resume against like Aaron Rodgers, and they'll they'll go crazy. We all peak care a little bit of an apology. He was like, it's I'm going with Gino Smith and Drew log I don't need Jimmy Garoppolo. It's worked out great. This this insanity of playing like running football that we think is

like ball. Guess what that's kind of working out for the Seahawks. Yes, their defense has largely been dreadful up until last week, but you give me five and a half points, I'll take them. Seahawks my number two kill. There's a point you just made that I said to someone else this week, and I'm happy you brought it up. We talked about market inefficiencies all the time, and this will this will actually lead into my second pick. Here.

The new market inefficiency is that these teams are so hell bent on stopping the past they have built their defense to stop the past, that teams that have a good, too great run game have looked a lot better, especially these last few weeks. And my my pick is going to lead right into us and and it's the New York Jets on the road against the Denver Broncos. Take the point with my Jets, because they have found something in Breece Hall where the Jets have not had a

running back like this. Sin's Curtis Martin. Curtis Barton obviously was pretty damn good. One of is all said and done, But look, I think there's something to be said now. The defenses are now built to slow down the past. They're built to slow down Mahomes, They're built to slow down Alan. But I I think teams that have good run games, good good run blocking offensive lines, good running backs are going to have success. The Broncos offense is an abject disaster as we know, and the Jets destroyed

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week defensively. They were getting pressure all the time with four There's no reason to think that won't happen again against this Bronco team on Sunday said, look, I I know it's down from three and a half in the opener. I do not care.

I think the Jets are winning the game out right and getting in getting the five and two, which will set up a showdown at the Meadowlands next week between them and the Patriots, who are two teams that have obviously overachieved so far through the first six weeks of the year. I love hearing Jeff's enthusiasm right from the Mets right to the Jets. I love it. Todd number two one by Big Gil. Both teams can hurt me.

That's okay, both good Dodd. What's number two. I'm just worried about Jets Jets this week because they I feel like, you know, it's been so much yeah that I feel like it's it's it's not gonna end well for poor Jeffrey over there. But okay, we'll root for you, Jeffrey. I am going with my second game. I'm going down to a city that some of you might have heard of. It's called Miami, Florida. Miami Florida. There's gonna be a grinder game. We're gonna play the Insers. There ain't gonna

be much scoring. We're going under in the ball game Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers under the forty five? Is that what you guys have? Under forty five? Forty four and a half and a half. An I'll take I'll take the forty four and a half, no problem. Under forty under forty four and a half in Miami against the Insers. Uh, the Ensers are gonna be They're gonna be a team. Look, we look, we don't have a lot of offense. Let's be let's be real. Okay, we have defense done here.

That's what we do. We're just still Pittsburgh Stores. We played at kind of football. We are a defensive football team, and I think our coach knows we're a defensive football team. That's why what we're gonna do is we're gonna try to run the ball. We're gonna try and make sure that our inexperienced quarterbacks and untalented quarterbacks don't hurt us. And we're gonna try to keep the score dying. You

gotta keep score dying. And that's the only hope this week. Look, I like it under because look, the Steelers, the Steelers offenses is really not good. I mean, I know Travisky hit a couple long third downs when he really needed I have no I have no idea how that happened. Um. Even so, the score was eighteen against the Buccaneers. Uh, Miami's offense with Teddy Now it's you know, it's okay. It doesn't you know, it doesn't get me all excited. I think the Steelers will be able to hang with

them defensively and keep it down. I just to me, it looks like a typical Steeler fest where it's gonna be you know, twenty to thirteen or some some ugly number, you know, because Pittsburgh can't really do a lot on offense and their defensive team. So I think that's the main fact here that Pittsburgh's gonna play teams unders because that's the only way they can stay in games. They know they can't out score teams. Give me under forty five, forty five a lot of points forty four and a

half ring. By the way, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh people with their love of Kenny Pipott and Kenny Pickett, and they're just staying for Mr Biscuit. I have expected them to be like, oh, if it was just was picking in there, we would have thrown for thirty yards on those third and laws, Like it's ridiculous busy credit. Yeah, look, Kenny Pickett may be good, may not be good. He's certainly we don't know that. The Pittsburgh fan base acts like he's like

Montana and Marino combined. Already two and three from you. You can sneak these. Yeah, I'm gonna start with the Tennessee and Indianapolis under forty two and a half. Okay, uh, Colts are the second worst offense in the league by d v O A average defense so far, Titans are pretty much average across the board, but they are the slowest paced offense in the league. Slow pace equals fewer points. So this one went to forty one when they played three weeks ago, and I like going under forty two

and a half on Tennessee in Indianapolis. My other one is Jacksonville and the Giants over forty two. The Giants are not very good on defense. Efficiency wise, they haven't given up a lot of points, but on a per play basis, they've been a pretty bad defense. The offense has been pretty good in particular the last three weeks, the offense has been really good. The Jaguars are kind of middle of the road, but a lot of that is based on that week too game against the Colts.

But their defense is more built by that week to game than they're off. Their offense has been more consistent in other weeks. Their defense mostly was just really good in that one game. So I think they're more of an offensive team. I think the Giants are more of an offensive team. I like them to get together and score some points. So Jacksonville and the Giants over forty

tod number three. Let's be brief, my number three is going to be the Ravens since in Ravens Browns game over forty five and a half, I am not at all convinced that Cleveland can stop anyone. They seem to allow everyone to go up and down the field against them. I don't see why the Ravens won't do that as well.

And offensively they are pretty decent. So I'm going to be quick with you, and I'm just gonna say over forty five and a half, Baltimore hasn't really stopped anybody either, and so you know, give me over forty five and a half in a high scoring ball game down in Baltimore. I am going to take the Washington Commandos getting five points against the Green Bay Packers. Uh again, Gil, you said that this card stinks. This is a really hard cart.

This kind of feels This kind of feels like two weeks ago where I got destroyed, so it could happen again. But look, this is one of those where I think Heineke is a better quarterback than Carson Wentz's and Green Bay right now is in the is in shambles, And look, I I do think part of what happened on Sunday to them was the Jets genuinely playing a great defensive game. But you score ten points at home the week before, you bought a big halftime lead against the Giants, and

Cam move the ball at all against the Giants. And Aaron said, I don't think the Giants defense is particularly good. I just think the Giants defense is opportunistic and has taken advantage of the opportunities when given with forcing turnovers as we saw in that Baltimore game this past Sunday. But look, I I think Washington with Heineke in there, uh, we'll have a chance to win this game outright. So I'm gonna take the five with Washington and hope for

the best yet. And let's let's make this cat. Carson Wentz makes throws that Taylor Heinekey doesn't. But Taylor Heineck gives you the added dimension of legs, So there is that. We'll see how it goes. Um okay in my three and I'm gonna let all the hate wash over me. And I'm just doing this one on the fly just to our point that this is a very difficult week. I have actually decided on the fly to take the Cardinals tonight minus two and a half. I just have

an instinct about this tonight. I just think that they show up. I could be terribly wrong, and Cliff Kingsbury, by the way I click King Zurie messes this up tonight. That may be his job. It could be that that bad at this point. But I do think the addition of Hopkins and the subtraction of Lattimore will matter. I will take the Cardinals minus two and a half as my number three teasers of the week. Todd wishnev an O N six. Thus far on the season, the rest

of us aren't much better. Aaron, what is your favorite two teams six point teasers? Sir, well, I'm going against you. I had said I didn't want to play tonight, but that was with the two and a half point line. I'm actually gonna say Saints plus eight and a half. I like that because I don't think that the Cardinals will win big. I don't think either team is gonna win big in this game because these teams are so mad against each other. Um and then the other one

I'm going. I'm I'm putting it with Cowboys minus one. Yes, I can see I can see the Cowboys playing again against the Lions, a game that ends up too close for comfort. But I have a hard time seeing them lose to the Lions. So that's my teaser. Saints plus eight and a half, Cowboys minus one. Todd Um, I am gonna go with Pats minus two. I find it hard to see how the Bears are going to stay within that amount of points of the Pats. And I'm gonna go with the l V Raiders. The Raid is

minus one. I just you know, I just think talent wise, they've got too much talent for Houston on the road, and so give me the rate is minus one, Pats minus two, go over oh and seven Parley Indianapolis up to eight and a half against the Titans. I think I think that's a close game, regardless of how you slice, and I think both of those teams stink. But that's a different argument for a different day. And then I, uh, well, this is a risk now that Toddy has one of

my legs. I'll also take the Raiders down to one. I the last two years I crushed in teasers, so let's all just freaking have a column that held down. I was waiting to see what he was gonna break. Oh my god, these two. But I think the Raiders are much better. And uh, you know, until Davante Adams gets said suspension for shoving the cameraman, which I think we all agree is inevitably going to happen at some point,

I think Adams is gonna have a massive stretch. So this is a great matchup, obviously against a terrible defense for the Raiders offense to go out there and put a ton of points to win a game pretty handily. Uh So ling one seems pretty good to me. Yeah, I don't claim to know what's gonna happen with Davante

and that I have no idea. Um, I'm going New England teas down through the seven and the and the three to the two New England minus two, and I will pair that with the Dallas Cowboys basically down to one, having them just have to win that game against the Lions. That would be my teaser. Alright, Survivor, Aaron, are you in any Survivor pools at all? I am not in a Survivor pool, but I do have a suggestion for

this week. I like, based on the idea that you've probably used some of the best teams and you want to save some of the best teams for future weeks, this is the week to take the New England Patriots. Yes, Jason,

Jason just crushing Errand's point there at the end. I'm with you. So I am in Survivor, I have one entry left in circle. To me, that is exactly right. I think New England will be the single most popular play because of what you're saying. This is also the last best opportunity to use them, Like, there's not another time on the schedule for the Patriots where will be more favorable. So I think there'll be number one. The other option would be the Raiders. Uh, same sort of thinking.

At least the Raiders at home don't have a better option on paper against the Texans, but the Texas are a little more feisty than the Bears in terms of those two opponents. So I think it's I think it's New England one. I think it's the Raiders too. By the way, there's tons of options this week for those. Obviously some people have used some team, others haven't. Um, but I think those are gonna be one and two.

And then the final two questions boys and girls that we ask on every single megapod will ask them again, and this one there's tons of candidates, which is which of the big favorites is the single most likely to lose out right? And there's tons of them. Cincinnati is the six and a half point favorite at home against Atlanta, will do it six and a half and above seven. Cowboys seven point favorites at home against the Lions. UH. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers eleven point favorites on the road

against Carolina. Baltimore is the six and a half point favorite at home against the Browns greater seven point favorites at home against the Texans. These are just on and on Dolphins seven point favorites at home against the Steelers and the Patriots eight point favorites at home against the Bears. Which of those, Aaron, is the most likely in your opinion to lose? Outright? I would say the Chargers, Oh, five and a half. We cannot include the Charges in that.

I thought the Chargers was six and a half, five and alf. Then I would say Cincinnati, Cincinnati six and six and a half, just because Atlanta's offense has been feisty this year. Even though their defense has been bad, their offense has been feisty, and a j. Turvell against Jamaar Chase is going to be an interesting matchup. Not not to not to dismiss your charges, as I think we clue the Chargers. Everybody would have picked the charges.

Chargers are so difficult to get it. We'll get to the Chargers of a second here, Todd, what's the big favorite suppost like to lose? That? Right, Toddy? I think the Dolphins could lose to the Steelers. I mean, with the Dolphins, this world beating team with the backup quarterback, I just I think they've come back to the pack and you know, maybe Tomlin can throw mix in some Google losh, some way of getting it like he did last week against the Bucks. I could see the Miami

losing to the Stillers, to the Stiller's Jeffrey. This is actually a fun one because I also think it's the the the underdog that's in this category and it's most likely to get run out of the damn building. But I also think they're like possible win the game out right?

Is Cleveland against Baltimore just because I know, I look, I know it's not sustainable for Baltimore to keep melting in these in these fourth quarters, but Cleveland is enough talent to stay in this game. The other problem with that is is was mentioned on the show multiple times Baltimore could run, could could run all over Cleveland and

put forty on him. So UH, rare one where it's Baltimore most likely to lose to Cleveland, but also in the big favorites Baltimore most likely to blow out Cleveland. I can't wait for Deshaun Watson to come back to a three and seven Browns team. UH. In week eleven, I will say that the most likely to lose out right is uh. I'm gonna say the Raiders. I just have this bad feeling, I really do, and there's nothing

else but a bad fid. They should destroy them, and they're one in four, for God's sakes, they've lost four games by like a combined thirteen points or whatever it is the Raiders. They should roll the Texans. But I don't know what it is, the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing like I've seen this before, so I don't know. The Texans are always feisty to me. So I'll just say the Raiders because, like you said, Jeff about your game,

I can see the Raiders beating in my thirty I can all see the Raiders losing. And then the final question, which Aaron was alluding to. We have four teams on buy, so we have a grand total of fourteen football games. If you had to bet thirteen of them on the side you were forced to, but you were allowed one pass, Aaron,

what would that be? Chargers versus Seahawks. As Kevin Clark has said, the Seahawks have never played a normal game ever, and the Chargers seemed completely unpredictable this year, and so I they could wallop the Seahawks and they could lose this game. By fifteen, like I could go anyway. Are you a Brandon's Daily guy in the end or not. I'm a little upset with some of the non fourth down decisions that Brandon's Daily has made, including hiring Joe

Lombardi as offensive coordinator. So I've become less of a Daily guy, but not for the reasons that other people don't like. Great point TOI, what do you want no part of? I want no part of this Green Bay Commander game? I you know, I don't well what's going on with Green Bay. I just don't understand what I'm getting with that team and with the Commanders, you know, I just you know, now we've got a new quarterback.

I don't want to Please please refer to them as the Commodes in the future, or as the commodoors as most people in DC the best. Jeff, what do you want to part of? I'll go with Tonight's game Arizona New Orleans. It's so funny, Like what I'm thinking of this, I'm like, why am I landing on all the games I picked already? That's how bad this is. Um, I'm gonna say Miami in Pittsburgh. I have no feel for that game. That game just feels like I don't know if Miami is going to roll them, I don't know

if pittsburghs and keep it close. I'm uchur bisky guy in more ways. I mean, I don't think he's the greatest player ever, but I think I'm higher on him than most. All right, we've done all we can do. Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders. We appreciate it, and thank you so much, and we'll talk on a numbers game in a few weeks for our halfway through the season double segment show. How about that? Absolutely glad I could do it. Thank you, sir. Aaron Shots, the founder of

Football Outsiders. By the way, before you go tell people what they can find on Football Outsiders. Of course you can find all of our content d v o A. If you're an FO plus subscriber, go to Football Outsiders dot com slash subscribe. You get our numbers on Monday

instead of Tuesday, so you get them early. You get our picks against the spread, you get our fantasy football projections are picks against the spread have totals now, by the way, and our totals formula is something like twelve games over five hundred for the years so we're doing well on it. Beautiful all right for Aaron, shots for Todd, wish for Jeff Parlay, Gil Alexander. Thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all your weeks seven bets in the National Football lay Up. First,