Beating the Book: 2022 Week 5 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

to deal with shady bookies. Prove insures California finally catches up, So vote yes on prope Check it down Man Now Down Now Suesday morning, October n In the book podcast Mega Pod for a week number five in the National Football League, It's Gill Alexander live from the South Plam Hotel Casino, tip of the Strip. It's the South Point for for the rest of you. Uh. South Plam is what we like to call it Cleave. Michael Gone will La will accept that pronunciation. It makes it more worldly.

It does absolutely um. By the way, I've run into Michael Gone, who owns the South Point from time to time, and he looks at me with a vague familiarity. He's like, I think this guy is supposed to be here. Uh. That is the voice of West Reynolds. He is from Visa. He is the guest, the rotating guest on the podcast UH.

This week he's the co host with Fami Bebifet of visen Live bet tonight Monday through Friday, nine pm Eastern, six pm Pacific here on the network West Glad to have you man, Glad you could, and of course the staples of the show alongside here at the south Point Jeff Parlay, Ladies and gentleman used to be producing number five and eight, the Grover Cleveland producers on a numbers game. Now he hosts his own weekend show here at the network with Ben Wilson. Usually usually yeah, not usually, that

isn't always. Actually, I've bet Saturday and Sunday see the weekend version of what West does. And you and Ben have known each other for ages, so you guys are buddy. So you guys are just clowning around all weekend long essentially. That's yeah, the eleven years now, that's a great program right there. And ladies, gentlemen from his mom's cork addict way in at two hundred and three American pounds, Todd wish neev how you doing man, that's me baby, that's

me two oh three, over a hundred pounds lost. Yeah, baby Pesik is at what now? He was two hundred on Monday. However today he's at one four because he

hasn't been eating for three days. Well on Monday, I was two or four. He was two hundred. He got nervous, so he hasn't eaten anything basically for for three days. And now he's But it's a gaze because it is soon as as soon as he starts eating again, he's gonna blimp back out and I'm gonna fly right by him. I'm Wisconsin, the old Wisconsin against ball State. You just hand him the ball. It's now the getting to the fourth quarter and cash. His defensive line is tired. I

tell him every day. Steve Fezi back to back Hilton Super Contest, winners of football handicapping contest back in the day, and the bet once again Todd will win nine thousand dollars. Steve would win three thousand depending on the come but Todd well on his way to nine thousand if he passes Steve. Uh Steve had a like a sixty pound head start in this and his hair great air sixty two pound head start started in May of this year

theoretically would go to May of next year. But at any point, if Todd passes Steve in the weight loss challenge, then it's over. It's all over and Todd wish unless he gets to one before me. Well, he knows. He's a smart enough guy to know that this this strategy is unsustainable, right, Like he can't just fast what was it, young kipor every day for him? Yeah? Yeah, he basically is playing the young Kior system. Maybe Steve that more, maybe has more sins to a table than the Catholic

on this panel gets that joke. Alright, Um, so let's do court stenographer first. We're kind of killing it on this little show, aren't we this year? Yeah, Scilly the iceman is no longer the ice man. This guy can just hit him. He was seven and two coming and he wounded a nice little Raiders and cards a stinky Rams pick. But two and one is very solid for nine and three. His teaser lost, as a lot of our teasers lost because a lot of us had Rams plus seven and plast week have sucked this year. Yeah,

he's two and two on the teaser. Jeffrey is that guy's like a Hall of Famer, the likes of the Houston quarterback three he's at Davis Mills Hall of Famer. He's six and three, hits three and oh with the cards have tied the over in the l A Clippers Houston game, and the races and the rates for his nine and three he stole my Raiders pick uh and he's not allowed to bet the Clippers next week. Then you can't bet basketball teams anymore at quarterback now l

A C l A C. Same thing. I came in at four and five, went a solid two and one with my Raiders, my Tennessee plus three and a half, and I got cheated in the Bill's Ravens game because always a Chief, always and it was a solid winner. And then it just just fizzled. So I am now six and six. Our guest picker came in six and three, another solid week, two and one for Chernoff, Seahawks plus four was a winner, Pats plus nine and a half was a winner, and Saints plus two and a half

did not get there. You know what I mean? You know what I love about turn off dm me. He's like, I cared more about the podcast picks than anything I was doing this week, which I appreciate about it. Yes, yes, So anyways, very very solid, two nine and threes. The guest is eight four and I'm six and six, so you can't ask for better than that. Really real nice job.

I wish I would be playing my millions picks because I have two millions entries, ones at fifteen and five, ones at fourteen, five and one that are sniffing goodness. So that's interesting because my millions is not as good. It's twelve and eight and west and Jeff, you guys do a millions together, right, Yeah, we're twelve and eight. Yeah, twelve and eight doesn't feel fun and eight six for that good season that you will take every single year.

But in the contest you are d o A. You are d o A drawing dead for sure on that. So wait, So it's nine and three, nine and three, eight and four and six and six, eighteen and six, twenty six and ten. You're six and six, thirty two and sixteen. That is six. That is two out of three. That is six six seven right there in the percentage.

We will take that. We'll take it thirty two and sixteen collectively on this yere podcast, and the teasers sucked right teasers me and jefferre Owen four and Gilly is two and two and the guest is two and two. I am not taking another Wong teaser the rest of the season, just just just for just just for research purposes.

Now now we are, now we are going to piss off every single math person that listens to us taking by not by taking non Wong teasers, which the only one I should have won this year was the only non Wong one that I did, and I lost on Pitchy Pitchy Woo Will on Thursday Night with the Steelers, who Here's what I want to know? What's the oh and like? If you guys go oh and seven? If one of you goes oh and seven, oh and a, what's the week where you're oh for where you're like,

I retire from teasers entirely at that point. I would just go for eight Booby Price teaser for the show. Yeah, one student Booby Price teaser. All right, um, okay, before we get to all of our best bets and all the standard questions of the show, um, we of course have these new staples this week, one of which and Jason conn just loves these because he gets to put in a drop, the first of which is the coaching dumbbell of the week. I don't know, I don't know

how I feel about that. Can't gonna just pop out. It's it's straight out, isn't it. It could have been it could have been about ten seconds less. But anyways, Uh, I think was very able. Not getting a field goal at the end of the first half was very suspect. I thought that was some silliness. We've got some candidates, right Vrabel nut Vrabel? Well no hold on? So yeah, well, okay, which was yours? Vrabel at the end of the Well,

they didn't at the end of the first half. They just botched the whole goal, right, they bought They botched the time. That's I wouldn't even put that in like the top three. I mean, okay, how about Frank Rych kicking a field goal down seven mine? How much time was two minutes? Two minutes left in the game? How

was it? Fourth? And what I'll get you the exact Ryan Ryan got all right, I think you Ryan fumbled the ball one of his nine bumbles he already has this year, by the way, and then uh that put them where they were kind of in that no man's land. I'll tell you exactly what it was. Down fourth and twenty one at the Tennessee thirty three two oh four, left all three time outs in pocket ch ops for a Chase McLaughlin fifty one yard field goal, which, by the way they split second that it came off his toe,

had no prayer, no chance whatsoever. He was, by the way,

just activated last week because remember the Colts got rid of blankets, right Rodrigo blanketship in the rexpects. And then of course the number one kididate has to be that John Harbaugh controversy. Should he have kicked a field goal and gone up three against the Buffalo Bills with four plus minutes left. We're giving a pass to both Cliff Kingsbury and Nick Sirianni because there were kicker issues in both cases. Right, Matt Prater was hurt and Jake Elliott was,

plus Jake Elliott had weather issues. So doesn't I don't hate it? I did at the time. How did you feel about that West? Did you hate it? No? I don't because I I kind of got the point that it's just the worst thing that could have happened is what happened, and that's Lamar through an interception and Buffalo gets a touchback. But it is part of the calculus, right that happen. It is, But if you don't get it,

you have Buffalo pinned on the two. And that's what I think a lot of people aren't aren't recognizing here and maybe aren't talking about that totally changes the play call. Yeah, can Josh Allen go nine yards? Absolutely, but that's eighteen you know, plus yards less of field position. So yeah, you're probably gonna run the ball on first and second down, you know, because teams always do that when they're pined deep to try to get them some room in case

they get stops of their putter. Putter is not on the very back white line of the end zone. But you know, you saw what Buffalo was doing. Because that's why I didn't hate it as much, because it's like Buffalo was going down there to get some kind of points. They were taking knees at the end to end up kicking the winning field goal. So I didn't necessarily have a problem with us. You're gonna need a TV, Like you said, you're gonna need a TV. You're not beating

them with a field goal. Yeah, Yeah, we're gonna partly because he should should have top, but for that one I I felt at that moment. I'm just gonna be honest about how I felt at that moment. I was like, I can't believe they're not taking the lead here, because with four minutes it was there's ten minutes left, I'm on your side. But with four minutes left, you're just

talking about trying to end the football game. And so I was a little surprised by that, Like, I get the case for the opposite, but I would have kicked the field goal. I really would have at the time. You know, what do you always say about when you have a bed in pocket? I had Baltimore plus three betted on Sunday morning. I wanted them to go for it, okay, because two reasons wanting Baltimore's defense is horrible, absolutely horrible.

And we saw it up twenty to three, where their defense was great for about a quarter and a half. They were terrible the last two and a half quarters of that game. And we saw the same thing against Miami, and really, if it wasn't for mac Jones being bad, the same thing happened against New England as well. Matt Jones made two horrible throws in that game at the

end that it saved them. Yeah. So, so there were a lot of things that went in their fashion, but I wanted them to go for it because I had no faith that they were going to get a stop. Then I'll give it to you. So that I adhered to the betting truth SERREMI. More than anything, I wanted them. I didn't want them to run the play they did. I wanted at that point, I wanted lamar legs to be what got in the end zone there, not Lamar's arm.

I didn't like the play call more so than it so than your vote is for Frank Rereik, then yeah, I think it's Frankreik for sure. I know it's no man's land on four, but you cannot kick in that scenario, especially with a crappy kicker who of course didn't even come quick even though it was a win. Do we not nominate Zach Taylor? Though? For the Thursday night game where where there it's fifteen and fourteen, they send McPherson out. I think it's like fourth and goal at the one

to go up seventeen and fifteen. That was after McDaniel by the way, that game was a was a a trade off of nineteen fifties football decision making. The other one is and will land into this the Minnesota Vikings, like I don't know if you got up early and watch the London game, but like on guessing lines, I spent four or five minutes just I'm going through everything Minnesota did ridiculously in that game and they still ended

up winning. But they like the the amount of stuff the Vikings, and I'll just mention some of them here, but the amount of stuff they did in that game and still came out victorious was incredible, um with But that was more penalties in a lot of cases, so never mind, that's a little different. It's more penalties in that case. You used to have faith that this is here from Minnesota. Even three none whatsoever, that's going out the window. Those are my two so far through four

games by two worst calls. Minnesota Indianapolis. I think Indies. The Indie might on top of being one of the biggest disappointments, and they of course played to night, so we'll get to that in a second, but they might be one of the five worst teams in the NFL. Forget being Aaron Shots and Football Outsiders has them dead last in t V O way, I don't have a problem with that is them in Houston, Indiana, Nay Indiana native West Reynolds on the show. So many problems with

that team. Not only Todd mentioned Maddie Ice nine fumbles, he is on pace to shatter to the record, which I believe is co held by Dante Culpepper and Carrie Colins want a collection. I mean, he's on taste to have like thirty plus fumbles. The records just barely over twenty. And part of that too because the offensive line, which is, by the way, the highest paid line in the NFL. What happened to Quinn Nelson. I have no idea. You paid twenty million dollars to a guard and I guess

this is what you get right now. The offensive lines badge on it than Taylor, who's not going tonight, hasn't been able to get off. They're still kind of trying to settle on that receiving corps. They've been a real disappointment. And then Darius Leonard, who just came back against Tennessee, is going to miss the Denver game at least with the concussion so you know the Ballard bike regime. I think the bloom is kind of off the rose. Jim Mercy has tried to be loss a fair and be

hands off and let these guys around the team. I think it's time then the owner is gonna have to step in very damn soon in Indianapolis. So let's talk about these games tonight Thursday Night football Colts at the Bronco. Wait before we get to that, can I just do my in game segment because I think it's a really good one. I had one that I was really happy with myself about. Um, you know, I basically had a middling week with my in game stuff. But there was

one on Sunday Night football. U Uh. Tampa Bay was after they gave up a touchdown to go down thirty eight seventeen at the five forty two mark, or the third quarter. The Chiefs are now leading by twenty one. The line came up some places at sixteen and some places at seventeen and a half. I found a place, you know, one of my places. At seventeen and a half. I took the Tampa Bay plus another down twenty one. I took him plus seventeen and a half. At that point.

Reason being, Tampa Bay was moving the ball the entire you know, second quarter, in early third quarter, they were moving the football. They looked like they can score, and you're getting them at seventeen and a half when you know Kansas City is just gonna run the ball in the fourth quarter and there's huge chances for back to our touchdowns as well. I'm getting seventeen and a half

in that spot, I have to take it immediately. They come down, they get to touchdown to go thirty twenty four, and the Chiefs come down and kick a field goal

to go up seventeen. So that that seventeen versus the sixteen and a half was I mean, the seventeen and a half verse the sixth team was a huge thing, which I you know, knew because there was obviously a chance that Casey would kick the field goal, so they go, but it was all it didn't matter anyways, because Tampa Bay was going to get to the backdoor touched on which they did final. So that's the kind of thing

you have to look at these teams. A team that can move the football down big has to be taken because the other team is going to just run the ball and punter, get a field goal or something like that, and you're going to get a chance for backdoor touchdowns with teams that can move the football. I love it.

Your it's your facing pro tip of the podcast. No, it's a it's a teams that can move the football down big gotta take it like the Falcons the other I did the Falcons one a couple of weeks ago, when they were moving the ball up and down against the Rams. Down. You have to take that kind of team. I will say this, and I don't mean to like Needle parlay, but I paid so little attention to that Sunday night football game because I was so locked into the Braves and the Mets. So all of that wass

on me. But I'm glad you brought it up. Um, I want big on that game. That was my one big nice Alright, So tonight's game Colts at Broncos. Um, I'll be honest, I have no bets on this. The Broncos at three point favorites, and if you just sort of, you know again, talk about what's the case for either team,

I'll just do like a thumbnail the Colts. Well, first of all, the Broncos side I mean, you can make a huge case here for the Broncos, I suppose, and the fact that this is first of all, with Maddie Ice and all his fumble problems, it's a short week into elevation on the road. There's no Jonathan Taylor, there's no Shaquille Leonard as as West mentioned, there's also no um there's no Julian Blackman, there's no Tae Kwon Lewis.

On the Colts defense, do you give Denver a pass for their performance against the the Niners when it was in you know, elevation there as well? Because San Francisco's defense has looked really good since, so maybe you give them pass for that. So there's I mean, there's a lot going against the Colts in that respect, and they're dead last, as we mentioned in d v O A, if you believe in that kind of metric. On the other hand, what's the counter. No Javonte Williams for the Broncos.

He's done for the year, Melvin Gordon has fumble litis, He's fumbled four times in the last four games. He probably wouldn't be playing. If Javontay Williams, he'd be on riding the bench. If Javonte Williams wasn't done Josh Jacob's gash this defense last week, Josh Jacob's gash is nobody. And then the Broncos have had games offensively, We've had like a nine three and ounce in one game, they only had twelve first downs against the Raiders. So I don't know what to do with this. Wes, do you

have a play? Yeah, I haven't played anything yet. I am actually looking at the over, which you would look at the numbers and be like, how the hell can you look at the over? The Colts are dead last and scoring offense four teen point three. Denver not much better at sixteen point five. But I think when you look at the game plans and the big way the injuries are gonna play out here because Jonathan Taylor is out,

and look the Colts offensive line. They haven't run the ball very well anyway this year. But you're gonna have name Hines now. They're gonna use Hynes more out in the passing game. So Philip Lindsay has actually been activated from the practice squad. I former Denver Anco, by the way, played football in Colorado, former Buffalo, so you know, big game for him. You would expect he's gonna be full of piss in vinegar and want to run, you know, and really have a great game here. But they're gonna

use Hines out of the backfield. And that's what a lot of Colts fans have been calling for this year, is to use Hines. In terms of the passing game, I think finally the Colts figured out a little bit against Kansas City and especially against Tennessee. Hey, Frank Rich used the tight ends a little bit more and Moile Cox had a couple of touchdowns. Granson has been good.

The rookie Gilanni Woods has been good. So you know, just looking at what the Colts are gonna do out of expect that they're going to move the football a little bit better through the air. And I would expect Denver is going to do the same too. We know Javonte Williams is out. They're still gonna run with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone, I I think, but the Colts are very good against the run. Actually, that's one of the better things that they do is defend the run.

They're one of the top few in the National Football League. But passing d v o A, I think I saw they were like twenty seven or twenty eight, they were near the bottom of the league. So I maybe maybe Russ is gonna be able to cook and not send up raw scallops like he's been sending up to Gordon Ramsey all season getting thrown out ahead of hell S Kitchen. You know, let Russ cook, Gordon Ramsey saying you've been cooking like a donkey. Let's ride run a pass. Two things,

one West. I am currently full of piss, but not vinegar, okay. And to Todd. While we're doing this, we have a screen on in the studio and they just showed Dianna's advanced auto parts commercials. She was right on the screen in front of us. Yeah, she gets She's on that big Facebook commercially see all the time. Deanna is killing it. Dianna star of Showtimes Action docuseries as well. So so a few things with tonight. First off, I like Denver. It's not gonna be one of my three picks, but

I do like the Broncos tonight. It feels short week elevation. I know the culture as low as they can possibly be right now, but if you can't beat this team at home on a short week. Then what the hell are we doing here with this Bronco teams? And look at the biggest thing with India. I actually I meaned some crow here for a second. I am apologizing to Todd, Wish and everyth because Todd was Ryan all the way

about Matt Ryan this year. Because even though I thought Matt Ryan was going to be bad and it didn't take much to be an improvement over Wentz, because Wentz was hilariously bad last year. But where's he playing now? By the way, I haven't seen his work this year. He's He's on a semi pro football team. He's on a team that it supposedly takes command. But but but Todd was right the whole way because Matt Ryan, like West said, like on Paced who said a fumble record.

Every time I look up, I'm doing the show on Sunday. Every time I look up, Matt Ryan is fumbling, period, end of the story. And for the Colts, and they have to think long and hard this offseason. This isn'tbedding, but people to think long and hard this offseason, or say, is a really difficult decision of do we just blow this whole thing out, get rid of everyone because this quarterback a year strategy does not work. It does in work.

It's too hard. You need so many things to go right in order to make the playoffs, as we've seen the last few years with this quarterback a year's strategy. And it's fun when we talk about the fumble thing. We we you know, we say it and we move on. But just it's the thing about fumbles is it's whatever else you do does not compare to that, Like that's a that's a benchable offense, because I don't care what

else you're doing on these other drives. As you do well, if you're putting the ball on the ground, that's the end of you, right, you shouldn't be on the field. And the record, by the way, is twenty three. I was trying to think of the number by Collins and oh one and Culpepper or No. Two and Matt Ryan's already got nine through four games. This is highly discouraging because I still think that he could throw the football.

And part of it is the offensive line issues clearly up front, but ball security, and that's the thing with the Colts. They just don't have anybody in waiting. I mean, you could maybe go to Sam Ellinger once you get him active aided. But yeah, Jeff's right, I mean, Jim Ursay is going to have to step in, and Jim is getting to the point to where his daughters are kind of being groomed to take over the team. They're certainly very active in community roles and league meetings and whatnot.

So that'll be Jim's last chance to really remake the team, you know, and kind of get the Colts back on a winning Super Bowl heading path. You're not starting Nick Foles at any point, Wes They they may, I mean, you know, I just it's just it's been so disappointing and so disorganized, you know, ever since Andrew Luck retired, you know, just to see you know, they went with Rivers and he was breset and he was okay. They went with Rivers. He was fine. Carson Wentz if you

look at the numbers, actually wasn't horrible. He was just horrible in bad times, in the worst possible time. That is when he would make the biggest bone head play. Is that is the over one of your three best bets, or that it's not one of my best bets. I'm actually waiting. I'm starting to see forty one and a half as we record here, it's basically forty two in the market. But you know, especially if it got down to forty one, I would go in on the over.

And I know primetime under has been nine and four to the under this year. But scoring did go up last week. Now, a lot of that was Seattle Detroit having ninety three points, but scoring did start to go up even if you take that game out. So I think we are going to start to see more overs than unders over the next couple of weeks. All right, let's start with the best bets West. You have honors, your honor? What do you got first? Okay? Let me I better take a drink of coffee on this one. Now.

We were just talking about Starbucks all the numbers games. Yes, uh so I need some energy to convince people on this one. H Which which book do you use? By the way, you can do available at three? You're good? Okay, it's only available one and that's here at the south Point. It doesn't really matter because it's in a dead zone. Number best bet number one is the Los Angeles Rams. Well five is kind of the ballpark here. There are

some five and a halves out there. But look, I know that this is a really ugly favorite, and I expect that Dallas is going to be kind of that quasi public underdog, if you want to call it that. And what we're starting to see though is the oh man, they're just as good with Cooper Rush, you know. And and then I see, you know, as I'm coming into the studio to prepare for the megapod, I see on one of the hot take shows on Cable Sports News. Uh can when that comes back? Is this a super

Bowl team? You know? And and and I just think that it's like hauled the phone here with Dallas. They were an underdog at the Giants less than two weeks ago. They were only a three point favorite over the Washington Commanders. They beat the Cincinnati Bengals when they were basically in shambles and you know, couldn't protect and Cincinnati came off

that bad loss in week two. If you take away the turnovers, there's a metric I know you're familiar with Gil called e p A Expected points added if you take away, you know, for turnovers. Because Cooper Rush has not turned it over, he's been a very good game manager. Dallas is the thirty first ranked offense in the National Football League. If you take that out in terms of

e p A. You look last week where they won ten over Washington, you think, oh, pretty convincing. Washington kind of beat themselves. They had well over a hundred yards and penalties. They actually had two interceptions that were nullified by penalty, one by defensive holding, one by an illegal contact. Cooper Rush also had three dropped interceptions against him against Cincinnati. What do we call that Todd itch interceptions that should have happened? Is that our version? So we determined was

that Tode's metric? Yeah, and we are we having Skype issues with Todd? I think we are. Todd's there, Okay, can't hear me? Yeah, we hear you know. I'm sorry. Oh, he's just very still. I couldn't believe he wouldn't speaking. You stunned him in the silence there, maybe stunned into silence. And I'm actually laying it with the rams here, but yeah, you look, and I just think that this Dallas thing is a little bit overblown. They do have, by the way,

Philadelphia next week. Now. I don't think that this is like a quote unquote look ahead spot. But uh, this is a bilow for me on the Rams. Rams can still really defend the run. Cowboys didn't really run the ball very well against the Commanders last week, and and I think the Rams, uh, you know, the one thing about their defense, they could still stop the run. And I do think, and I'm not going to use the term do factor, but Cooper Rush is getting ready to

turn the ball over. I think these these these interceptions are gonna be caught and they're gonna be not nullified by penalty at some point. So he's ready to turn the ball over to you if you let him. I think the Rams are gonna let him. Sean McVeigh fifteen and eight against the number off of loss four and one after losing the San fran And and I don't hold that necessarily against McVeigh that much because they always lose the San Francisco in the regular season, so we

kind of expected that. And you look at what the Rams are there two and two. I know they're the Super Bowl champions, but I don't think they've really been that under expectations. They lost to Buffalo, who everybody had as the Super Bowl favorite, even behind us here at the South Point, Chris Andrews is very ken. It said, I don't want any more Buffalo money, so I'm gonna lower it as low as I can. Where you stop Betty didn't where there's like it's no value, it's too

small on the futures board. So they lose the Buffalo. They lose to San Francisco like they always do. They get out big against Atlanta, Atlanta did make a comeback, and then the defense dominates against Arizona. So the Rams at two and two are kind of where I expected them to be. So yeah, I just think the way this number is price, it's giving Cooper Russian Dallas a little bit too much credit. So I am going to lay it with the Rams, all right. For those who

were wondering, a was Dad gonna play? Dak wanted to play, but then Jerry Jones said he can't really grip the football to grin and and And that's probably part of the reason this went up about a half a point because this was like four and a half and five. Then some money hit the market yesterday on Wednesday's re record. But yeah, I I I just think Dallas just looks like to like, how are the Dallas Cowboys? They're playing great? How are they getting all these points? Well, I think

there's a reason. Five and a half is the number that we're giving Wessel on this game. We'll see if Matthew Staffick get something beyond Cooper Cup and Tyler Higbee. My goodness, Um, they're the only guys who have been getting open really on that offense. And Stafford what is that now? Nine interceptions in his last six games. I almost give him a pass right because I'm like, I

think he's almost getting frustrated. He's already gun slinger by nature, and so it's like he's just like, I gotta throw it in there and hope on some of these God from his mom's ladies, gentlemen, Todd wishing it from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. What's your first? Well, it's funny that that he has that game, because what was gonna be my number one pick but can now no longer be? On Monday that the Cowboys Rams game was forty six when it came out before the Niners game,

and I said, that's just way too high. Um, forty six is ridiculous for a Dallas game. So I took the under forty six. Of course, now it's forty three, so I'm not gonna take it under now at forty three. But um, you know, I knew that was a ridiculous number, especially because I feel like the Cowboys. But I don't like the spot here, so you know, I'm not against

the West Spike here. But I think the Cowboys defensive line is the best thing in football, meaning they're really good at rushing the past, are better than anybody's like wide receivers who were amazing, and then you know, whatever unit you take. I love the Cowboys pass rush. I love it, and I hate the Cowboys as a team. I just love their pass rush and I think they're gonna be an under bonanza with Cooper Rush just managing games and with that great defense. So I would have

loved to have the under. I can't do it now, so I'm gonna go with a different best bet. I'm going to go with the Green Bay Packers minus the eight uh in Lambo and the frozen time in the frozen tundra of London. I don't carebratt him Hotspur Stadium. I forgot the it's the Totten in my bed. Anyways, I still like it. I don't care minus A. The Packers should have crushed first of all, Packers almost won the game by seven if Dubs. By the way, why do they all call him Dabbs. His name is Dubbs

Romeo Dubbs from the wolf Pack. He watched him every every Saturday night at ten thirty. We watched the Nevada Wolfpack against somebody, and his name was Dubbs. Now, all of a sudden, his name is Dobbs because he's in the NFL. Or is it because the NFL announcers don't watch college football. I don't know, but his name is Dubbed drives me crazy. Anyways, He's been playing great, but

he dropped the touchdown at the end. They would have won by seven in a game where Aaron Rodgers threw a pick six at the end of the first half. I heard Rogers comments after the fact that we're not playing well, blah blah blah. I think this week is the week that they just put a smack down on somebody, and I think it's your New York Giants who's playing quarterback for the Jackets. I don't even know. Is he gonna be on the frozen Tundra? Is it gonna be in in London. Who is it going to be and

where is it going to be? Because I don't know who their quarterback is and I don't care. It's time for the Packers to smack somebody in the mouth, and I think they're gonna smack this Giant's team in the mouth early on Sunday morning. Give me the Green Bay Packers minus the eight. I guess ten on that game on guessing lines. I was surprised it was lower than That could be Davi's Webb, could be an injured Daniel Jones, it could be, it could be a lot of bad things.

I was just trying to think of what obscure Giants quarterback can I name here? Every time you think of him? Me? If they got the fumble and Herman it's running it back the other way for Philadelphia. I wonder like if that was during the Twitter era, the ship that would have been talked after that, Oh boy, really you're handing off to Zanko. Oh you had to do was sit on it. Zanka playing for them with the dime. Jeff,

what's your number? One? All right? I prefaced this when when I tell West every single week, this is a horrible bol card? How do how do your conversations go? Usually last about ninety minutes. We go through every game, and then then when I get the tax and I'm like, oh god, we're opposite already. For freaking that's usual. That's usually what happens at this point. And as soon as he said the rams, I was like, well, here we go,

We're already on number one of being options. I always found that, like doing it with a partner was a challenging thing West as on the West, as long as you're not opposite him. On the pizza at the Delhi Point versus the pizza upstairs at the Bowling Alley, because the pizza upstairs at the Bowling Alley is a three touchdown favorite over the pizza at the Delhi. It's literally minus twenty one that much of a difference, Todd, that's light.

It's probably like Ohio State versus San Jose State. It's probably like it's like that that Ohio State Rutgers game from last week, but with no fake punt. All right, So this card, I I'm going with things I don't really love this week, because I don't really love anything here that things like like I'm gonna start. I'll start off with a total after last week's a successful run into the total, and I'm actually gonna go to the game that Todd was on and I'm gonna go under

the forty one. How in the hell are the Giants scoring in that game. I don't care if it's Jones, I don't care if it's Web, I don't care if it's mccaren who might get signed this week for them. Giants are gonna be unable to move the ball. And last week that game against against New England, it feels like Green Bay just didn't care for a big part of that game. And Zappy comes in, It's like, oh,

it's this dude from Western Kentucky. Was never played professional by the way, he got a touchdown after the seconds, Yeah, it was. It was. It was at least five seconds after hold on, hold on, I want to make this point. Everyone is now exaggerating that thing, Like Jeff just at five seconds. It was a good to three second. It felt at the time right that it was two and a half seconds, But then they showed the camera from behind Zap and it was like a second and a half. Still,

I'm not saying it wasn't. It wasn't like the play clock was well done, but the second and a half. So if you rounded off to the nearest two and a half seconds, it was two and a half seconds, regardless, it doesn't matter it was you it was. But back to what I was saying, though, you know if you rounded off to the nearest eight and a half second

skills yeah, no, no, it would be zero. So the so the only way that I see the Giants scoring in this game, and this could con see what we happened in Torpedo me is that s Quan has a big day because we saw Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris run pretty well over Green Bay. But that happening was probably the best thing possible for green Bay's defense because in a game where the giants only weapon is Barkley, you're holding in on him. You shut him down, fild

the Giants to seven. So I'll go under forty one on on green Bay and the Giants is pick number one, Okay, um, My pick number one is an exercise and me just shutting off my brain and deciding that I'm going to pound this angle until this angle gives me nothing, and that is I don't care that the Niners have gone up to a six and a half point favorite at Carolina. I am laying it. And I know that d v o A has the Colts is the worst team. Well you know what my personal d v o A has

I have the Panthers is the worst team. And again this Matt Rules stat which we've talked about on this podcast now for weeks, I'll say it again now from the beginning of his tenure at Carolina, the Panthers are one in twenty six when the opponents score seventeen or more points. By the way, it's the last twenty four of them, they're oh and twenty four. Now this Niners defense is going up against Baker Mayfield. You talk about how the Giants are going to score, How are the

Panthers scoring? How are they scoring on this Niners defense? And I just and and first of all, it's like the Niners aren't gonna get to seventeen. Oh, they'll get past seventeen. And as we know from what we just talked about, the Panthers have no shot here. Jimmy throws them interceptions. That's the only way there, the only way. But but Baker Mayfield is I'll say this again, like he's so painfully mediocre, and mediocre might be generous. That's nice,

he gets you. Like the team total under Gilly, I didn't Niners minus six and a half. That's my first better day. I'm gonna do this every week until it fails. So just bet against Carolina blindly. Well, obviously that the trend is different than you know, giving them six and a half, But in this particular matchup, I don't see how they score enough to overcome that. They couldn't move the ball against Arizona, They're not moving the ball against

San Francisco. I'm laying it, just shutting off my brains for we're saying Matt Rule should keep his phone on and if he sees Lincoln, Nebraska, Madison, Wisconsin on the caller, ID pick that up. Because he was so good at Temple and he was so good at Baylor, and we all, I'm sure he's a lovely guy, But how can I

put this? This is the same working out, just not wor It wasn't all Joe Brady got to be the skategoat last year and they let him go and now he is working up in buff Below as the quarterbacks coach. But maybe this is and I thought Matt Ruble had a chance to succeed at the next level. I really thought he had a chance to succeed at Carolina. Has not happened. We're sneaking number two. Um, that New England line is down to three. New England line is I'm

seeing three. It's mostly three. I see three three minif. Yeah, well, if you give me the three, I'm taking the New England Patriots and I this is one of those words again. We'll go to the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. Bill Belichick ain't losing to uh Dan Campbell. I can't explain to you why, but I think you all know why because we've watched football for entire lives. This isn't happening. Um, it's a Matt Patricia revenge game. By the way, let's

point that out. It yes, the old man Patricia revenge spot. That's huge. I actually think that the h that the Patriots are going to grind this game against the Lions defense. The Lions follow the same script now for more than a year. They're gonna, You're gonna they're gonna trail by a lot of points and then they're going to play this catchup game where they look, hey, what that Lions offense is something else? They're gonna get this done. Um, Patriots are gonna outlast a here. And now that it's

down to three, it triggers a play for me. If this were a little higher, maybe not, But now that it's down to three, I'm taking the Patriots and laying the points. The Patriots are at home here, um, and I actually think again, mac Jones is people are gonna be like, wow, they don't have mac Jones, that they don't even have Brian Hoyer, Um, mac Jones. We talked about the itch staff, the interceptions that should have happened.

He was the king of this when he was in, so I'm actually a little more comfortable with him not being there. If you can believe that I'm laying the points, I'm taking the Patriots, And let me ask you a question before we continue. And Bailey's appy, plus being in that air raid, He's used to getting that ball out quickly, so he'll take those little short passes. What do you think of the total here? Because I'm kind of liking the under based on what you said. In turn, this

seems like a grinder game with the Patriots. Everybody saw the Lions score forty five points last week, and we know their defense in't much to write home about, but seeing basically painted forty six, this seems like it seem underpot. I agree with you, and this is the one. Again, going back to guessing lines on Monday, which I do with Chrissy, I was this is the game I liked the most, the Patriots on this on this number. Now

it's come my way, and so there you go. Parlay Detroit, don't Detroit is exactly what I think we all kind of realized we would be once everyone decided that they were the greatest team of all time. With a six and a half win total going into the season, the defense could apparently stop a team with you me, you me, wishing Evan West at this point, I wish we've got wished. By the way, where this should be the video should be the video clip Jason changing shirt with No. I

wasn't changing my shirt. I just I you know, I eat so much salad and fruit and drink so much water from playing tennis, and I have to constantly go to the bathroom, so I was dying there. Sorry. In the prostate of a of a seventy five year old man because of the good diet, another one full of It's a good thing. His is right there and not like we are at the Circus Studio seven. Is that the biggest weakness of that studio? Yes? Distance between there

in the bathroom. Yes, yes, I would just bring a bottle. You'd have to bring a ball. And plus that I have the bladder of a seventy five year old man, So you know when I gotta walk, especially like when you're doing a weekend show and Jeff knows this now, I did that last year. You gotta do like little quick cuts on a dime, Like Barry Sanders. You're running, Yes, you're playing. You're playing real life Frogger basically. Yet it's like Castanza trying to get the Frogger machine across the

street in Seinfeld and he's like, I'm a goner. Okay, I'm moving out of the way. All right, it's my pick, right, I'll lay the touchdown with Jacksonville against Houston is my next pick? I know this is do I know? This is a tough thing to ask a team that is not used to being a favorite to cover a big number the road, as we've talked about on the road, as we talked about on this show, Davis Mills at home not bad, actually quite good, Davis Mills outside of

Houston absolutely horrendous. And Jacksonville, I look, I know they lost last week. I know they didn't cover for people that had the numbers last week. That Jaguard team is pretty good. And if Trevor Lawrence doesn't fumble four times in the game, which I'm gonna say not sustainable, we're we're going to say it's the weather. Yeah, I'm gonna say that was the weather more than anything. And look, Philadelphia is really damn good. That defense is really good

as well. And now, but you're also you're also playing, to me, the worst team in the NFL in Houston. Sure they play hard, but if Jacksonville is as good as I think they are, they should win this game by multiple touchdowns at home. So all a seven with Jacksonville against the Texans. Houston was my Houston was my fourth pick, Houston plus seven because I think they hang around with the Jags, but I'm not gonna take them. My second pick is gonna be the Teddy two Gloves.

Teddy two Gloves he's really not that bad. We got the Teddy two gloves. Teddy two Gloves, he's gonna kick the Jets as oky. So I'm going with the Miami Dolphins minus the three because I've got Teddy two Gloves for me and I think that the Miami Dolphins are a much better team and the New York Jets. I don't think the quarterback is such a huge down grade.

I'd liked Teddy two gloves in the past, and now with all those weapons, I think what made two of look so good early in the season is those delicious weapons that he has. And um, are you guys hearing that little back the the the uh? I really think that the reason Miami's playing so well as they have those great weapons now on the offense and they still got a pretty solid defense. I think it's a great time to bet against the Jets after they won the

most fraudulent victory here in Yinsberg. I don't know what and hap we lost it at Jets. I was telling my mom's right down there, there's no where we can lose to The Jets were dot We just had a giant mill. We had a great time. We came down here to watch a store game. Look, it's not called Heinz Field anymore. I don't know what they're doing down air. We went to the casino beforehand. We walked over to the store game. We're gonna go to a paying game

later this week. We can't pat the Jets. What's wrong with this team anyways? Jets are are are high on themselves after beating a bad Pittsburgh Stiller team. I don't believe in it. I like my Teddy two gloves. He's gonna go in to New York jet Land and put the stink on him. Miami minus three, you can put the stank on him. I throw the challenge flag on the line threes. Oh, challenge flag on the line over

the place. Three. Okay, it's it's mainly three, and I'm gonna do like a soccer line three point to five for Todd. So you push the half on the three and you lose on half on the three and Gilly gets it. Gilly gets to do this my minus three with New England, and he does that all the time, do it all to three. Three. He didn't let me finish. I was gonna be on the side, but then he

decided to go on attack Um. By the way, that the Teddy two gloves He's really not that bad would be such a great two gloves version of the Miami Dolphins song, way better than the squash Buckler one of two weeks ago. Swashbuckler didn't go over. My songs were bad because I wasn't prepared, But this week I was prepared with myself, so I just loved it. Teddy too. By the way, the New York Jetropolitans eighties six teams have faced a double digit fourth quarter deficit in the

first four games of the season. Only two have gone five hundred in those four games, the eighty Miami Dolphins and these New York Jets too, who did it against Cleveland and the and the and the Steelers, the Steelers, both of them. When he's saying Teddy two gloves not that bad, he he is Teddy Covers in his own right forty two and twenty one. As a start of twenty four and six on the Road, we apologized to Teddy Savanski, Teddy Cover Yes, the original Teddy Covers Yes,

and his son Isaiah Um. We apologize to Boho um. Teddy used to Teddy used to text me, uh should say Teddy used to text me videos of his son Isaiah playing basketball, and you would write me and say, he's really not that good. So I like Teddy Covers so much. He's like me, a thin guy as opposed to boxes here. So you're like, you're a fattest now is what you are? Hate the fastest? Alright? Um wait, so who's up top? It's West, that's right. I wasn't

talking about you. I was talking about the other two. No, no, I understand Todd. We're good, We're good. My second play is going to be you're going to a primetime game on Sunday night. The you might need to ruin on this. It's mostly three with juice, but there's no three and a halves out there yet. And that is the Baltimore Ravens minus three on Sunday Night over the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore is two and two, and I think they should

be four. Now. If you look at the Miami game they had when probability blew the lead, they were up thirty four teen. They were really banged up in the secondary and it showed. They were up twenty to three last week against the Buffalo Bills, the best team in the NFL. I think they ended up holding them like three d twenty five yards or something like that. So arguably their best defensive performance of the season. Baltimore was against the best team in the league who I still

have power raided Number one, the Buffalo Bills. They've had offensive line injuries, but Ronnie Stanley has practice I believe, like five straight practices in a row, and when he when he went out last year, that's when Baltimore I think, really went in the tank and you really saw it offensively. Plus the injuries into the secondary, which is starting to

get a little bit healthier. I think a couple of guys Peters didn't practice yesterday on Wednesday, but I think a lot of that is just precautionary with rest and whatnot. So you know, Baltimore's defense, if you look it's not good. If you look at the raw numbers, they rate at the bottom because of what obviously Miami put up like ten thousand yards against them, basically in the fourth quarter. But you know, Baltimore is kind of middle of the

road in terms of defense. I think they're like a sixteen and d v O A, So there may be not as bad as they look. But offensively number one and offensive d v O A Number one and pass offensive d v O A middle of the pack rushing. I think a lot of that is because they didn't have Dobbins for the first couple of games. They're still waiting on Gus Edwards to be activated from the Populist. But if you look at Baltimore, I think that this is a little bit of value here only laying three

at m n T Bank Stadium. If Baltimore wins those two games, what do they lay in six here? Probably against the Cincinnati Bengals. And this is not necessarily just a backing of Baltimore. It's also a little bit of fate of Cincinnati because if you watch last week and Jeff and I were both on the Bengals. We use that in our entries as well. And you know Thursday night. You know, yeah, you don't always do the Thursday nights on your entries, but I thought that that spot was

so good for Cincinnati. You had a Miami team that had to come back against Buffalo. First, they beat New England, which is still a division rivalry. I know, this isn't vintage Patriots. Then you had that great comeback at Baltimore. Then you were on the field for ninety plays your defense, and you still have somehow, some way even up giving almost five yards up to Buffalo get a win over the Bill. So you're three and oh and then it's a short week and you lose your quarterback on top

of that to a tag of Baloa. And yet Cincinnati, who we had, which was in a really good spot, they needed a pick with like a few minutes left to go to hold off a backup quarterback. And I know Teddy Bridgewater, as Todd said, not that bad, gloves really not that bad. But they still needed an interception to hold him off. In Cincinnati. That was such an unimpressive win, even though it ended up being double digits.

They can't run the ball at all. And Zach Taylor, I think is bound and determined to try to run this ball. The first couple of weeks, you know, it was you know, first down pass rate was really high. It wasn't running the ball on first down. Then you watch the Miami game last Thursday night, get a first down, burrow passes for a first down, run the ball or

on the ball, run the ball. Thirty carries for sixty seven yards for Cincinnati last week, and I think if they do that, they're gonna get behind, and they're gonna get behind very quickly. They still have offensive line issues as well, so they've been protecting a little bit better, I think because they're not having burrowed so much out of the shotguns. So they're at least trying to run the ball, but they're just not able to do it. This is a low number for Baltimore. I'm surprised we're

only laying three here. I think it's gonna be three and a half or four by the weekend. We we are giving you the three. That's what it is. Consense

is right now. And I agree with you also in the sense, like Baltimore now, with the muscle memory of having given up these leads like they are, they can't possibly this happen again, right And and also the fact that when whenever that happens, when you get like the media heard that really and and I'm not saying you're wrong to say, hey, they should have kicked the field goal there, there's certainly a debate to be had about that.

But whenever you get these like coaches, especially super Bowl winning coaches, by the way, on the studio shows on this network. It's that's this damn analytics, you know, and that's what they always go to. It was the was the one that did it over the weekend, and he wasn't certainly alone, but he was the one that I saw, So that comes to mind immediately. But it's like, I I can't stand it. I can't face palm is perfect,

we got the audio. I just I can't stand. You know, if you're going to be an analyst for one of these major networks, you know, you don't have to agree with the decision, but unders but understand, but understand why. And I think a lot of people, you know, more people getting into this betting content space could also I

think keep that advice. The one other thing that I want to I want to piggyback real quick with with Les is for the Bengals, this will sound really screwed up to people, but then making the Super Bowl and losing might have been the worst thing that happened to them with their coaching staff because now they are stuck with Taylor and Zach Taylor. You said this in twenty nineteen. Every single week he looked bewildered on the side that

that was your word, you will be. But he so clearly is in over his head right now because the offensive play calling is terrible. They can't run the ball like West said, and they have a really good running back in Mixing. And you have three wide receivers that if you put Boyd, you put Higgins on a different team, those guys very easily could be number one receivers elsewhere. And you basically have turned Jamaar Chase into a number

two wide receiver through the first four weeks. So Taylor, Taylor has got to figure himself out because if he if he continues this run and Cincinnati underachieves, the Bengal should be looking for another coach next year. I threw this, but the problem is that franchise never kept kept Marvin Lewis years he really did. I believe my ground doesn't

exactly like to spend money. Yes, if you don't know there in Cincinnat the I said this on a numbers game, but we haven't notother chance to say it on this on the podcast here, But I this is sort of just macro look back at last year's postseason. I think we're going to look back at the Rams beating the Bengals in the Super Bowl. Not the outcome of that game, which is the fact that those two teams met in

the Super Bowl. I've started to think it's going to be this historical hiccup where we just realized the Bengals had a rabbit's foot up there. But you know, sack nine times? Why the Titans somehow they won that game? That really good for it? They never had to play you know, um that excuse me. The Rams never ended up having to play the Chiefs or the Bills, so

they got that free past. They played at home, for God's sakes, in the Super Bowl, right, And I just wonder, like again, because the power rank you alluded to this earlier, it's the Bills, It's the Chiefs, and I guess the Eagles and whatever order top three teams this year after that, it's kind of who who do you think? But I do wonder if we look back at last year's postseason and just think, like, yeah, how did that happen? Look, we get out liars in professional sports every once in

a while. The one I go back to Kansas City Royals were the best team in baseball for for for for about two hundred and twenty five games and the twenty thirty years before that, they were one of the worst franchises in baseball, and lo and behold, they're the worst franchise in baseball right now. They figured out before anybody that if you didn't have the bank roll or the pay what they call it payroll, play it from the back forward. So they figured out the seventh, eighth,

ninth inning thing, who was it? Horrera, Hollands and Davis and Wade Davis right, and they got to the they got they got mad bummed in and then they beat you. And then in a series the Mets led all five games at one. The Alex Gordon home run in the World Series Game one. Who was that off of familiar, familiar with the quick pitch? Yeah, familiar, Troy Hawkins fault. I went ballistic. I had the Royals that night. Oh we lost Todd, No, we got Todd, we do I

don't hear him? Can you hear me? Or now we can? Okay, enough with the baseball. Then the great example of this that you're driving me crazy, it's a Kansas City bro the the the example is the Arizona Cardinals being against the Steelers in the Super Bowl time, which was a team that should never have made it and probably almost could have won the game. Right, But I'm talking about both teams though. In the case of the Rams of the Bengals, Yeah, I mean I think that's that's gonna

I mean it might be completely wrong. Maybe the Rams are lollygagging through the season as I thought they would. I agree with you on that. Um, your final one, Okay, so we get one more best bet and then a teaser. Correct, that's correct. Okay, I'm gonna give a very ugly best bet here, and we are going to go too many favorites, so we're gonna mix in an underdog. It's not exactly

a big underdog. I think it has dropped. It's still majority to the Washington Command plus two against the Tennessee Titans, that our first Commander's pick of the year might be. It might be my last one if they don't get home, if they don't get home for me, because I had him last week. And look, I don't necessarily think they deserve to cover. But I think that that score was deceived,

and I'll tell you why. I momentarily, but starting with Tennessee, look, Mike Rabel back against the wall against the Raiders, home underdog, they go ahead and get the win. They win in Indianapolis, and they've kind of owned the Colts of late too. And if you look at what they did last week, uh, the the the new offensive coordinator down there in Tennessee. Actually this is his second year, Todd downing good script

early on. You know, they really do well. I think there was a weird stat I saw it on Twitter. Somebody said that they were number one and e p a per play in the first quarter and then they take a nose dive. And you really saw that last week against the Indianapolis Colts. They got out twenty four to ten. If you watch that game, at least on turnovers, Yes, absolutely, because Colts were minus three by the way in the turnover margins two lost bumbles and then Ryan in through

a pick. But in the second half, Tennessee did absolutely nothing. They ended up with two d forty three yards only four point seven per play, Colts at three sixty five five point a to play, Like, the Colts were clearly the better team in the second half and just kept shooting themselves in the foot. And then what we talked about earlier in the megapod with the Frank right decision

to go ahead and kick a field goal there. You know too, I know your fourth and long, but still to seventeen, that three is gonna do nothing for you. So you look Tennessee. I just think that they're a little bit overrated their defense. They're one of the bottom of the barrel defenses. It may not show statistically, but their thirty offen expected points added per play defensively, you look,

they don't have a pass rush either. Now that Landry has been heard, Bud debris really hasn't given them there very much this year. So they're not a team that puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback. And that's probably good for Washington, who's dealing with some offensive line issues. Even though they only gave up two sacks to Dallas, I still Carson Wentz got hit like about ten or eleven times. He had a couple of intentional groundings. To your point, I give him a bit of a pass

this year. Yeah, he's getting crushed, he is, and the offensive line has been poor. But I think against this Tennessee team that doesn't get a lot of pressure, this may help them a little bit too. And uh, you know, you look at Washington and also Tennessee losing the kid from Arkansas Burke's uh, the wide receiver. I just don't think that they have any real game breakers to take advantage of the Washington secondary. So that's what concerns me a little bit. On the Washington side, keep in mind,

this team did beat Jacksonville in Week one. Who I think there's a lot of people that say they should be the favorite right now in the a f C South. They've certainly looked the best of any of the teams in that division through four weeks. Washington was laying three. I know they had to come from behind in the fourth quarter, but they did get the win and the cover over Jacksonville. One thing that's hurting Washington they're giving up too many big plays in terms of the secondary.

I think they've given up twelve plays at thirty yards or more. But they should have had a couple of picks last week against Cooper Rush and nullified by penalty show yeah exactly, and that was to ten game, but that didn't look like to ten game. Washington actually slightly outyarded him. It was a pretty even game. It's only a five point game in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact that the Commanders had you know, a hundred and twenty or thirty whatever yards and penalties they ended up with.

But what I really like about this team is there very good against the run. They're one of the best rush defenses in the league. You know, the secondary they've given up too many plays, but six and rush defense dv o A. If you look the last two weeks, Philadelphia, you would say one of the best running teams in the league, right, And I know Philadelphia handed them there. You know what's basically it was twenty four enough until

Washington got a score in the second half. Thirty carries for seventy two yards for the Philadelphia Eagles against the Washington Commanders. Dallas Cowboys, you know, top at least third in the league in rushing twenty nine carries for sixty two yards. So you know, this is a team that I think can keep the Henry Knave at bay. And I don't think that Tennessee has the you know, the offense really to go ahead and get big plays down the field. Necessarily. They don't have those game breaking wide

receivers that these other teams have had. So we've seen it drop a little bit. It was two and a half I was hoping we would see three. We are not going to probably get a three on this. Yeah, this is and and this is already in a in a couple of teasers for me as well. But I'm gonna go ahead and play it out right. The Washington Commanders plus two Yes, one vote for the Commodes and probably going to be the only one. I'm guessing, DoD your final best bet, my final pick. I'm going up, Donner.

You know I'm starting off here. I'm driving up to Cleveland. I'm taking the brownies. I'm taking the brownies. You have to Yeah, got that doll? How you're getting a hook with that? Oh okay, then it's even better. Give me the Cleveland Brownies plus two and a half at home against the l A. Chargers. Um, I don't like this Charger team. It stinks. There's something that stinks about this team. I don't like it. There's I know there's a lot of talent, but maybe because they don't have the wide

receiver you know Alan anymore. I don't know what it is about this team. They've got some talent, they can move the football. They're still the Chargers and they still love to stink it up and mess things up. They almost lost that game last week after they were up a thousand points, Survivor plays and it just I was like, of course, this is going to be a sweat. Of course,

it was ridiculous. You can if you're a good team, you do not allow Davis Mills, even Hall of Fame at home and come back and do what he did last week. I don't like this charge team. Something smells about this team now. On the other conversely, the Browns. I'm not in love with the Browns. I hate their defense. I really don't like their defense at all. But I

do like the fact they can run the football. I believe last year they played this same team in l A. And all I can remember is chub And and Hunt running up and down the sidelines for seventy five yard runs every ten minutes, if that, If I remember correctly, I think they won like forty eight to thirty seven or something. This was some ridiculous score. I think the Browns are going to run the football at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. Maybe it'll be a bit nippy

in Cleveland. You know, this Charger team doesn't like playing in you know, uh, you know, scary weather or anything like that. You know, I just don't like this Charger team. And to be laying points on the road against the legitimate football team. I mean, I'm not saying the Browns are killers. They're not killers, but they're a legitimate team and they can run the football. You're giving me the two and a half. I'm taking it. God, I know that you like to do the Miami Dolphins song here

on the megafod pod. Do you ever do the San Diego Superchargers. We've discussed, We've tried it. The problem is it's much too difficult to pull off. It's a very difficult what a great question. We have tried that, because that is the jam. That's all. I was going to actually do the Steeler song, the Pennsylvania Polka, and I will say this. I will say this west about Todd didn't really do the prep work necessary once he didn't get the Supercharger song right. He never really went back

to the well and tried to get it right. So it's a little bit of a weak performance on his part. All taken out there, He'll take the out Jeffrey, Oh God, this one could be done. This one could be done very quickly. We all agree this is a harder week. It feels like this, This one feels really hard. This might be a week where we go with four of

West's picks for the contest. Sorry, West, just throwing that out, Okay, right right now, um boy, I'm taking the fourteen with the Steelers on the road, are gonna I just We're going all the way up. That teams like a Super Bowl champion. He just mixed. He's just mixing some Baltimore accent in there as well. But the oostwork, you know, you know, it's just it's just one of those where Buffalo plays Kansas City next week and the Steelers are

starting a rookie quarterback at his first start. They just blew a double digit lead it home to the Jets and made Zach Wilson look awesome in the fourth quarter. But I'm just for whatever reason that and it has nothing to do with it, because Pittsburgh, even though they are, we're not good. Even though they're in the playoffs. Last year, they won last year in Buffalo. And I know it was a flukey block punt. There was a lot of

cookie things that happened in that game. But you're gonna give me two full touchdowns with Buffalo, having Kansas City looming the next week. A little look ahead, A little look ahead spot there for the Bills. This could this could be over in the first quarter. I could be down twenty four to nothing in the first quarter, and I could be dead, Zoe, I realized that. But I'll

think two full touchdowns with Pittsburgh. Okay, so we we have a time crunch here, we have a hard outcoming out someone in the interest of time, I'm just gonna tell you my third pick with that much explanation, it's the Seattle Seahawks taking in the five and a half. Um, I don't think New Orleans should be favored by that much over maybe anyone. And uh, if you ever want a fun little parlor game to play with your friends, do a blind resume of Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers

and wow and wow, you're friends. It's amazing how good of a year he's having. And maybe maybe we all Oh, I'll raise my hand Pete Carroll a bit of an apology. Who when Jimmy g was floated or any other quarterback this off Season's like, no, I'm good with I'm going with Gane and Drew Lock. So far so good. Um, yeah, their defense gave up a grip of points of the lines, but everyone seems to I'll take the five and a half. I'll live with that as my third pick teaser of

the week two legger six point Wes. Okay, by the way, I did mention Commanders my third best bet. I have used them in teasers. I won't use them as in this one, even though I do have this teased with the favorite downwards Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus two and a half with Todd wishnevs. Cleveland Browns up to eight and a half against the Los Angeles Chargers. God, I'm assuming Cleveland's one of your legs. We'll see. I wanted to do the Tampa Bay too, but I see it as

nine every word. How are we getting it too? I got eight and a half almost every book in Vegas right now, then, so then I want to do that too. Then I want to take the Bucks, but that was my one of my legs, Bucks minus two and a half, and I want to and wait, just so I get this for you, Wes. You have Bucks minus two and f and who's your other one? Cleveland plus eight and half Cleveland plus eight and a half. Okay, I'm gonna do Bucks minus two and a half and I'm gonna

take the Packers Green Bay Pickers minus one and a half. Uh, in the frozen tundra of England, you got six and a half points of the packers. Oh, minus two, I'm sorry, minus two, Packers minus two. And well, because of the exchange rate the pound and the dollar, that's the difference. Okay, packers too, minus two and the Bucks minus two and a half. Parlay all right? In the money line parlay version of of a teaser this week, you're gonna do mine. Yeah, I'm gonna take the packers down to two and I

will take that. Wasn't how I was. I was doing the Vikings. I'll take down. Honestly. It was like for me, it was I could do the Packers, I could do the Vikings, I could do the Niners, I could do the Browns. Ultimately, I'll just say packers and Vikings, and God help me, what could possibly go wrong there? Um? So that's mine, packers, vikings on mine. I can think of what could happen to you? I could too, Mr Curtis Cousin, Curtis Curtis Cousin, Curtis you alright? Does that

mean we're down to our final two questions? Oh survivors A West, are you a survivor? I am not, thank you, Jason uh I. There are so many survivor options this week, which is a great departure from weeks three and four, where Survivor was just complete mayhem and just real quick um. Of the biggest favorites New Orleans. I don't trust them, so they're not gonna be one. Kansas City, better opportunities later, They're not gonna be mine. Buffalo. There's a Thanksgiving consideration

in Circus survivors, so they're not gonna be one. So it comes down to by the way, I have multiple entries, This is different from those who just have one. But because I have multiple entries, it will be some combination of well, first of all, Green basa consideration, but I think I need Green Bay more next week. Next week it gets a little tighter and they host the Jets next week as opposed to the Giants in London, so

I may have to hold off on Green Bay. So it's going to be I've narrowed it down to some combination of Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and San Francisco. I was gonna say Jacksonville, I think could be popular because this might be one of the better weeks to usest it is the last time they will be this big of a favorite. That's exactly why Jacksonville will at least be on one of mine for sure survivor final two questions.

Which of the big favorites, and I like I named a lot of them right there, is most likely to lose out right? We have a lot of candidates. Packers to lose outright as eight point favorites in London against the Giants, Bills fourteen point favorites. It's at the biggest spread of the year so far. I think it is hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers uh the Minnesota Vikings seven at a half point favorites at home against the Chicago Bears, first time mentioned on the show today, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

nine point favorites at home against Atlanta. Jacksonville seven point favorites at home against Houston. San Francisco six and a half point favorites on the road against Carolina in the Kansas City Chiefs seven point favorites at home against the Raiders West. The most likely of those to lose outright. Yeah, And this was a team that I was extolling, as was Matt Brown on this very network also summer. The

Minnesota Vikings are concerning to me right now. I know that there are three and one, but this offense has not been as dynamic as I thought it was gonna be. With Kevin O'Connell and West Phillips coming in from that mcveightree with the l a rams uh and look, the Bears are the Bears are no great shakes, but the offensive line, if you really look at the numbers, has

actually been It's not great, but it's been better. We thought it was gonna be a total turnstyle disaster up front, but it's really been justin fields that you know, has been anticipating pressure before it comes. It's really him that's kind of been playing a little bit shaky, but I know that it's now they're laying the hook. So it's gotten a little bit of support. But I'm I big Minnesota's on upset alert. Yeah, they keep shooting themselves in

the foot with penalties. Such a frustrating team to watch. God, well, I'm I have the same thing written down the Bears to be many what is the key component in your doggage getting to the winning area. It's turnover, As folks, who who could you see throwing a pick six and also getting strip, sack and fumble in a ballgame? I believe it's a guy named Curtie Ice, Kurt Cousins. Baby. I think the Bears could pull the stunner in Minnesota. I don't This Minnesota team is it's this is blah

blah blah blah. And you know what, you turnovers? You've got tremendous turnover variance with a guy like Kurt Cousins to two things. One, the NFL network has rolled out Babe Loffenberg is one of their analysts, man by Indiana. Who's your by the way, former preseason Washington Redskin great Babe Loffenburg, Um Redskin ever heard that? Oh man, he won? He won an amazing preseason game and eighty three? Um.

And the other thing is the sentence that you just unleashed. What is the what is one of the keys for doggage to get into the winning area? That sentence Jeff Big favorite most leg lose that right to make it three for three Minnesota to lose to Chicago. It is four for four Minnesota again, So Minnesota is gonna be up like thirty eight to ten going into the fourth quarter. God, they are so shaky, but it's almost like for survivor, I almost want to get rid of them as quickly

as possible. Don't do it. I'll tell you why you can't do it, because if you do it and they lose, you're gonna go I actually trusted Kirk Cousins, and you're gonna hate yourself for the rest of year. I've used them on one. I've used them on one already, but I do have them available in two others, so it's like, I don't know. It's some of these teams though, then they're the great example. Once you use them and you survive with them, you're like, oh, thank god, I don't

have to again. Yeah. Alright, then final question. We live in a Bizaro world and you have to bet all fifteen of the sixteen not all games but one pass. But you have to bet fifteen on the side one that you want absolutely no part of West that game would be Yeah. And and actually there's a there's a couple of candidates. I won't use Tonight's because obviously there'll be people listening this on Friday and through the weekend.

But for me, it's the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets, and and I thought I was gonna be on the Dolphins. Look, I know Teddy Bridgewater, as Todd said, he's not that bad and he's actually been very good. But this Miami team does have some injuries. I I think if you look at the end of the game, and that's why I was so harsh against the Bengals and taking Baltimore this week, you had both corners out at the end of the game for Miami and Cincinnati.

Was still life and death with this team because Xavian Howard still with the growing injury. Of course, we know two is out, Cedric Wilson, whether he is going to go the Jets. I do believe, as Todd said, that

was a fraudulent win against Pittsburgh. You know, Kenny Pickett completed all thirteen passes. It's just three of the of the third team were to the other team, So you know that was just kind of a random frowned upon? Is that frowned upon? Steinfeld? You is that frowned upon? Because if somebody had told me that having sex with the the cleaning lady under the table was wrong. I would have never done it. How do I follow that? But it's it's it's it's my it's Miami and the

Jets that I don't know what to do with. And I thought I was going to be all over Miami with this overreaction, and that's what I like to do with the look ahead six now down to three. But as the week goes on, I get less sure. So Miami and the Jets is a pass for me. I don't like the Eagles game because the Eagles are just flying high fly Eagles fly, and you think, oh, well, the Eagles could never lose again. They're gonna go and oh even though there aren't twenty five games to play,

they're gonna win every single game. They could never lose. Their the greatest team of all time. Jalen Hurts is the greatest guy of all time. But Arizona, that Kyler Murray guy, he could run around who knows sooner or later the Eagle they're not going to cover every single game, So I don't want any part of it. Detruit in New England for me, mine is reflected on the line Tennessee and and Washington I am not quite ready to

write off the landover commodes. They've got to get the ball to Terry McLaurin and McClory had two catches, five targets. It's over, my friend. I don't know the first step. The first step is acceptance accepted. I'm with West. I think I could just as likely see Washington winning this game as I could Tennessee. Tennessee is a slight favorite. Nothing would surprise me here. A blowout on either side would surprise me. So that's the game I will want no part of. And I think we've done all we

can do from the Southamore. By the way, Wes, Jeff and I are going to go see uh Victor went on Yama here momentarily A you're gonna join us? You want to go? I might. I I had no plans as of this afternoon noon at the Dollar Loan Center, but we already got arena, right, don't go to a random dollar lone star. Um. We already got our tickets, though, so we gotta we gotta figure out where. I'm sure it would be no problem. I'm not worried about that. Thursday. Yeah,

I think we'll be okay. Tell us who that is because most of us have no idea he is what every There is going to be a massive Tanka Peloosa this year in the NBA might be the greatest of the lesson and I hope the Indiana Pacers are part of it. I hope they talking about that. They're all talking about he is. By the way, he's listed from anywhere between seven two to seven five. No one can no one has measured him apparently, and he is. We've

never seen anything like this kid before. I always say that when they say, oh with the showtime Lakers played the Warriors, I always say, I go, yeah, they look across this is when Katie was playing for I said, they look across the court, they say Katie coming, and those guys would be like, what the hell is this? That's how we That's how we feel now about this guy. He is. He's like Kareem Abdul Jabbar's height shooting threes. And then he was looking like the rant out there

shooting three the other night. It's it's amazing. So we're headed over to the where is he playing? Because I saw something in French in a French league. These are just two exhibition games in Vegas alight and the number go ahead. Todd, I'm sorry, you know what, So what is his deal? He's he's is he drafted or he's going to be drafted this coming, this coming, Here's he's gonna be the number one pick in this year and he's what and what is he playing for now? France

is like pro team or something Rando France team. Yeah, the number two guy, by the way, Scoot Henderson either Yeah. I'm like, if we don't get there, if we don't tank for the French kid, I'd be tanked for this really good guard too. Well, that's what we're gonna do. Thank you, guys, West West, Reynolds, everybody from Visan, thank you for being here. And Todd from his mom's cork Attic and Jeffrey Parlay also from visas a visa in

fest today. Thanks for listening. Good luck with all your week five bets Ah football that talked about ba Baba Baba bab boke bout ba baba dan ba do balk abou