Beating the Book: 2022 Week 12 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview

the holidays. The World Cup is underway. Mike Michael White is starting for the New York Jets on Sunday. Now, Mike go White. One of the best Chris Andrew stories ever. But it's a it's good to be here, as always, good to have you. Jeff is a hostedt Visa of course, and Todd Wishnett from his mom's cork addict in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who was actively bet in college basketball while this happens, we're betting the World Cup as well. How you don't

Toddy you good? Hey, Hey, hey, I'm betting the American Georgetown Gilly Memorial. The ornament it's uh, it's based on Gilly ICE's Washington, d C. Boyhood home. So they are they bringing him out at halftime, so we might have to lose him for bringing me out at halftime. It's the battle at Northwest d C. And ladies and gentlemen, big treat this week is what has become an annual appearance on this show. This show, Um, how can I

how can I say it? Properly? Upon whose shoulders it has been built? Ladies and gentlemen. You know him as Ace, you know him as VR, you know as Vegas Runner. It's Ace Vegas Runner. How you do it? Man? Never better? Brother? And thank you. It is to thank you for using my proper pronouns before we start exciting. That's really excited. Great, perfect time to have me on with Thanksgiving weekend because we have a couple of days. People are all from work.

They're looking at drop some bombs. We got nothing but prime time, so perfect timing. Man, I'm excited and I've already unloaded, so we got some good, good gold to share with the I missed that about you. I like everything on this card. Thank you for using my proper pronouns. That's so awesome. By the way, I just we we try not to get political on this show. But you know, you know how your phone gets pushed articles. I was pushed an article about It's about some actress and some actor.

I don't know why I got pushed the article. I don't know why I read it, but I started reading it. And I consider myself a fairly intelligent human being. Um, I could be wrong about that, but I started reading it and I couldn't understand what I was reading, and so I had to double back and read it again. Why Because the guy that they were referring to in the article, they didn't refer to him as he and him. They referred to him as they. So it required two

readings for me to understand what I was reading. No, I ask you, are we gonna really do this? These are like a major publication, We're really going to do that with the pronounced in publication. I think if you're over three hundred pounds, you should be allowed to be there, because that's you're calling me over three hundred pounds what I used to be over three hundred pounds. So I feel like I want to continue to have the right

to call myself they because you were more than one person. Yeah, and so the fact that you know a lot of times you say, oh, well we have this team in the first half, so you know you want to be a week as opposed to h an. I not not really what I think they were going for in the R hole, but I understand what I was just I

was just joking. But over three hundred. By the way, just so you know, in the over three hundred division, I was in the top ten worldwide in tennis over three hundred, and I've lost that designation now that thin as I've told as you've told us before, what is your current weight to wish? What is your current right around two oh three two o four? All right? Good for you, good for him? Is right? All right, let's do this Thanksgiving three days, three games on Thanksgiving, of course,

leading into a full slate of week twelve games. We start, though, with a couple of things we are that we sort of added to the show since you've been here with us, which is and I think I already know the answer to this, the dumbbell of the week. Itimous. I'd like to believe you you want you want to handle it time, because I think this this hacket has got to go. I've had enough for from the you can't get to

play in on time. Okay, your own tea, your own fans were counting down the play clock earlier in the season, and now, okay, first of all, before we get into the one that's just gonna drive me crazy, there was a point, and I believe in the first half of it was holding. It was either first in twenty or second and seventeen. He took first in twenty. That's not a good option, folks, I forgot about seventeen is better than first in twenty. What are you doing? That is

not that hard to figure out. You should know that by watching any football game that first in twenty is not as good as second and seventh. Okay, that's whatever. Even the announcer, even the ouncer figured that out at the time, which they're usually not present to do so, but he did. I'll let that go now. The second thing is Melvin Gordon pretty much fumbles every time he

touches the ball. Is certainly around large men on the interior of an offensive or defensive line. Maybe let's not give him the ball every time and inside the five yard lights so he can give you a heart attack. And somehow his own team gets hold on hold on, hold on, let's just give context. You are referring to the end of the first half, Denver was up ten to seven. They actually had its second and goal at the excuse me, was second and two at the four second and I believe it was second and two at

the four. No, second and goal at the four something like that. Anyway, they were in a very favorable position and on the third down play Melvin Gordon fubble, Denver was lucky enough to recover it, and then they got their field goal blocks. So, yes, that was that unbelievable. And by the way, he then he then he then was cut, we should finish. He then was cut right after, you know, the next day. So that's part of the

story too. Okay, whatever, It's just another time they were inside the five yard line and they don't score, which is maybe put you know, that's only happened eight hundred times this year. Now. The worst is at the end of the game. It's third down with like a minute fifty five. We've seen this a thousand times, no time outs left for the Raiders. The minutes exactly, run the ball, take the sack, do whatever you have to do, and

the Raiders get the ball. Back with one fifteen no time outs, very deep in their own end, and they've got to get a field go to tight. Now, I'm not saying that they're not going to get a field goal. Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but you certainly want to make sure you get rid of the forty five seconds, and of course they Russell Wilson rolls out throws the

incomplete passed. Now the Raiders have all kinds of time, and of course you know, they go down and they almost got the touchdown to win the game right there. Of course they end up losing the game. But anyways, the point is Mr Nathaniel Hackett must be a very nice guy. I don't know. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. The bottom line is he's not ready to be a head coach in the national football You forgot one, Todd, you forgot another one. So on that on that Raiders

dry after after Russell Wilson threw the incomplete pass. So the Raiders quickly matriculate downfield like three passes, right, they end up first in goal at the seven and and so so i I'm taking notes right for guessing lines, I'm taking notes. So I turned my head away and I'm assuming, God forbid, I assume with Hackett. I'm assuming that the Raiders spiked the ball to to to set up a second in goal. No, the Broncos called the

fucking time out. Time to remember, the Raiders didn't have any time outs, which means there was going to be at least another five ten ten second runof Plus they're gonna lose it down because they're gonna have to spec the ball just like you said. So that's increditable, incredible management. He's got to go. You're right, he's got to go. I mean, look, I'm sure that maybe he's a good coach, maybe he's a smart guy. I don't know. But he's

not ready yet. He's he's so bad though, And this will getting to the betting that legitimately, when you're handicapping a Broncos game, you have to for a moment consider his impact. You really do. You're like, this guy might be worth negative two points. You really will When when when I took him, I said I don't want to take him. I don't want to take him. I don't

want to take him. Fifty times I said I don't want to take and then of course I took him to and of course you know I deserved everything I get, So there you go. You know, no, not to bet on Nathaniel Hackett. It's really not that hard, folks, It's really not that hard. He's been swept by Josh McDaniels. The Raiders have sixty six PERCENTATOR wins this year against the Broncos. It's all you need to know. Don't short

change it at sixty six points. Excuse me that I forgot the obvious points, the the decimal they're we're gonna get. We're gonna get sixty six fast off the math people again. Sorry, yes, you keep doing that, all right? And then, um, what do we do after that? Oh? Yeah, and just take it quick. I just have I have a quick end game that I want to talk about. We talked about this on text a little bit. The the Chiefs Charger game. Uh, there was ten thirty four to go in the second quarter.

The Chargers are down third team ten, they're getting the ball. They're also getting the ball to start the second half as well. At that moment, I got plus four and a half on the Chargers. I loved it because of the fact I saw the Chargers are moving the ball. It's hard in the NFL to beat a team by four and a half if the other team can move the ball. It certainly looked like the Charges were gonna be able to move the ball. Plus I had all the favorability of them getting the ball right then also

getting the ball to start the second half. I just thought four and a half was too much. Took the four and a half, ended up getting home. But I think a bigger issue, and it was something you talked about that you had Tennessee on Saturday again, I mean had South Carolina against Tennessee. Because remember, folks, the algorithms are all based on the pregame number. So in the South Carolina Tennessee game, or even in this football game that I was just talking about with the Chiefs, it

was plus twenty two before the game South Carolina. If South Carolina can move the ball at will, which they could, you're not covering twenty two, you're not covering eleven, you're not covering twelve. You may not even win the game. They didn't win the game. And and plus ten plus eleven plus five plus seven, all those pluses were available, and you were you were pounding him. So you know, that's one thing you need to know about in game. I did a whole rant on that yesterday on the

Numbers Game, which is exactly what you said. At one to seven, I go in there and I'm like, well, let me suspend my thought for a second about the pre flop number, the twenty two and a half. What ought South Carolina be right? What should they be right now? And you go in and because as you said, it's formula, it's derivative the algorithms derivative of the pre flop. They were plus five and a half, and they were still plus two thirteen or plus two twenty on the money line.

I grabbed the money line when they're up twenty one to seven. I grabbed it again when Tennessee had a had a fourth and goal down seven. Tennessee ended up converting that, by the way. But then when South Carolina went back up to fourteen, bet him again at north of two dollars. Then it was twenty eight to seventeen, excuse me, fourteen, Bet them at plus one sixty two. Then when it was seventeen, bet him on the on the on the spread at plus three and a half.

Any to your point, those are the opportunities in betting because so because of the nature of a podcast, we have to talk about everything pre flop. But the reason we bring up in game is because when you look at your betting pie at the end, what you actually win on pre flop is just a portion of that pie. You've got to be present for those in game opportunities. There was never a better example than that South Carolina Tennessee game. And the more you can recognize that and

the more you can be aggressive and pounds. Now, by the way, it might not have worked right got closed dogs. Dogs fade sometimes, but sometimes they the more you if I could just finish, the more you put yourself in those positions, right, the better off you're gonna be. Right. That's especially especially if you get to keep some points still for them to fade late, you know what I mean,

because sometimes these dogs do fade. But you could pretty much tell in that game this is gonna be a close game because South Carolina is not getting stopped the whole time. So anyways, it's just something interesting. And I thought that the Chargers, uh you know, Chargers Chiefs game was a perfect example of that, that the Chiefs weren't going to dominate that game if they're not going to stop the charges every time. So I started out this

NFL season on fire. Through nine weeks on this show, I was twenty and seven, and I have just screeched to a halt. I lost to fourteen point leads two weeks ago, and then this past week one, you didn't deserve one loss. One loss you in, Jeffrey, I have to give you both, and then this is not deserve And then and then this week we lost on the Jets and the Broncos, or I did on both of those teams. So I just feel like the PLCO chip has just aggressively gone against me. Another oh and three

for me? What else for everybody? Gilly moves to twenty and thirteen with his oh and three didn't deserve much better in the Patriots game. Jeffrey moves to nineteen and fourteen, just a game back, and I am eight. I got it right, Jeffrey. I wanted two last week at one and two, and I am at eighteen and fifteen, just two games back. Um, the guests seat had a terrible week as well, seventeen and sixteen. Now for the guest so en eighteen seventeen, that's where we are now, yeah, exactly.

And the teasers, you guys each have four after the Vikings decided not to show up in Dallas. Four wins, seven losses. I'm to eight and one on the teaser and the guest seat is still seven and four and the teasers, the guest chair on the teaser has been awesome. All right, Ace, We we apologize for the preamble there, but that's uh, that's how we start each show. Now, so let's get just be in Canada plus one as

we speak. Wait, wait, say again again. We're just setting in Canada in the World Cup at plus one as we speak. But it's that time of day where things are coming in so early. So no, I'm listening to everything you're saying, but also to move a little bit as we're getting through. I have the draw in that game after this, i got plus one plus one minus

one oh five. I'm actually on the same thing aces even though this podcast will be out of right as the game starting, I was gonna say, all right, um, okay, so let's usually we say hey, any thoughts on the Thursday night game, because we do this Thursday morning. Let's just sort of throw in the three Thanksgiving games and really one of them. Yeah, so maybe we should just get into the best bets and see if any of the Thanksgiving games qualify. ACE, we start with you. You

know the format better than anybody. What's your first place there? Hey, listen. I bet all three games on Thursday, I really did, and two of them I really liked the sides. I'll tell you. First off, I bet the Buffalo bills immediately at minus nine. I bet him again at minus nine and a half. Um. I know a lot of betters are looking to use them in a teaser. I if it's not a long teaser, I just don't do it. As badly as I want to tease them down. Maybe you six and a half points or seven points, I

just don't do it. Um. I try to keep things simple and stick to certain rules that that at least I know historically had been profitable. Unless there's some data resent with a big enough sample size to change my mind, I just don't do it. I I try to keep it simple. Um. So for me, I wanted to use Buffalo obviously and a teaser. Wanted to use Dallas in a teaser, but the smart books that move them up, they just don't qualify for me. For other betters that are a little more out on the risk curve. I

think it's a it's an obvious move to use Buffalo. Listen, they're a number one power rated team in the NFL. I maybe what some of you guys made disagree, but I think their favor over anyone over a neutral field.

I don't think they win the Super Bowl. In fact, I bet a future on Kansas City and the future on the Dallas Cowboys about a week and a half back because in football, again, it's not a subven game by game series where a higher probability of the cream rising to the cup the top and in one game sample size, and there's a lot of randomness in Bob. So again, Buffalo maybe the best team power rating wise, but I don't think they'll be able to get it done.

They just have shown that even with all that coality on paper, they just lose games they shouldn't. You shouldn't have lost against Minnesota, you shouldn't have lost at the Jets, you shouldn't have lost that Miami. Like, if you're a dominant team, you win those games. You don't lose close games to bad teams. And that's why you're still getting

some value on anotherwise team that would be so um out of the value. Like for value betters, you would't even consider them um because they're going to be bet on weekend and week out. There's the premium attached. Obviously, it's something everyone talks about, UM. And that's why I do think you get value still on the Buffalo Bills. And also again the team with the highest point best

point differential in the NFL also reflects that high power rating. UM. I just don't think you fade them here against the Detroit team where it's the perfect storm. They've outperformed the betting market of late, and why shouldn't they. They went over a stretch of five or six weeks where they underperformed it so badly. I mean they underperformed by twenty four points against New England, eleven points against Dallas, six points against Seattle. So in those three weeks they underperformed

the betting market by forty three points. Of course, it's going to come back the other way towards the mean, and that's why they covered three straight games. But as you can see, two of those were coin flips. It's Thanksgiving. Detroit will gets some loved I think it's the wrong side. Bet Buffalo. They win this one easily, double digits, turns into a blowout in the second half. Alright, Ace goes with the Buffalo Billiards. What what are you giving him? Nine and a half, nine and a half, nine and

a Thanksgiving early Thanksgiving warning. The Bills nine and a half point favorites on the road against the Lions, who have the longest winning streak in the NFC currently at three games to Detroit. Jeez, what do you got? I'm gonna go under forty five and a half. Is that what you have in the Dallas game? Let me check how he's back on the Dallas unders again. I got forty five and a half for the thought, I got

forty five and a half. Yeah, okay, give me under forty five and a half in the Dallas Giants game. You know, as I've said all season, I think the most dominant portion of any football team this year is the Dallas front four and pass rush. It's been unbelievable. I was worried that they were going to get to Cousins, which is why I didn't like the Vikings last week because of Cousins statuesque ability and you know, that that is exactly what happened to Dallas Cowboys. Pass rush might

wreak havoc on Mr Daniel Jones as well. I don't see the Giants being a huge offensive team, and this is the kind of team that Dallas just kind of, you know, just eats up and spits out. It is a divisional game, so I'm hoping on the Giants being able to keep the score down. Dallas just had a big scoring game, you know, winning whatever what was the final thirty seven three, forty three, whatever the final store was,

So I'm hoping that they can. You know, typically you don't see teams, you know, scoring thirty seven forty points two weeks in a row. So I'm thinking Dallas might slow down a bit here on offense, and I think they're gonna be great on defense. I think that's the one, the one side of the ball you can really count on with the Cowboys. So you know, I think the Giant's gonna get more than fourteen points here. I don't

see it. Thirty four teen still gets you under give me under forty five and a half with the Dallas cow Girls. Jeffrey Parlay, This card is brutal this week you know my things. I'm like a this this of all the weeks to have a so on I never

like a lot guessing lines. I was like, I like, wait, so I'm the complete opposite this week because everything with Jeff, everything came within a point of what I what I would have made it this week for the most part, and the biggest differential that I had was and I'm I'm sure I won't regret this. I'm taking four and a half with the Atlanta Falcons against you. It's four I think, by the way, isn't it I see four and a half's all over? Yeah? Four and a half? Now, Yeah,

I got hit this morning. Yeah hit, they got hit this morning. I'm I'm looking at my screen. It's fours everywhere. By the way, this is the reason that I'm being adamant about the spread is because I'm OPO you here. What do you what do you I have? I have a lot of four, I have five four and a half. Yeah, So do you want to how about this? Do you want to how about this compromise? Do you want to take forward Washington? You give me four and a half of Atlanta? Is that allowed? Can we allow that? It's

really it's really not the rules. But hold on, it's pretty evenly space Like I'm seeing just as many fours as four and a half on my screen. Article three twelve dollar shut the hell up, time States shut off. A game cannot have two different lines for two different hosts. But if you guys want to do it, I'm okay, Well, it's a hollid, it's Thanksgiving. Why the hell? No? All right? I mean, I think it's legit. I think it's legit because it is pretty well split. Look, I know, I

I know the Commanders have been winning. I know with Heideki have been winning games. They have players, Chase Young's coming back this week. But this really feels everyone was going after the Giants for smoking mirrors earlier in the year, and seems like seems like that was correct for going after that. It's the smoking mirrors with Washington, They're still not really moving the ball. Last week. Davis Mills wasn't

the preseason Hall of Famer that I called him. He was shipped in that game against the kid Commanders and that game was over immediately. So look, not that I like Atlanta. I think the Falcons have done as well as they could with the roster they have. This is a field goal game to me. So that's why I'm taking the four and a half. With the Falcons on the road. I'm sure I will regret it early, but what happens, I'm sneaking. We'll start with Washington. I'm I'm

laying the four with Washington widely available. Atlanta really benefited from the court Daryl Patterson kickoff return for a touchdown last week against the Bears. They were minus two in turnovers in that first half and somehow we're tied, and somehow was because largely of that Patterson kick off return for a touchdown. They were outgained by the Bears to eight eight to two eighty. They were out time of possession thirty five ten to twenty four fifty. They were

only two of nine on third downs. Washington, meanwhile, crush the Texans. I don't know how much of that is the Texans, how much of that is Washington. I'll concede that, but they destroyed him and Taylor Hanekey now as the Washington starter, and he is the permanent starter now. Per Ron Rivera four and one versus Carson Wentz to and four. So I am taking Washington I'm laying the four. I actually think this team is headed to the playoffs, and

I think they're going to surpass the Giants. Their schedule lends itself to that. I think Washington is a sneaky team to sneak in to the playoffs, which brings me, because we're snaking here to my number two pick, which is the Dallas Cowboys. Much like Aces laying the wood with the Bills, I'm laying the wood with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving nine and a half, nine and a half everywhere, Bill Barnwell. Now we all know that that the Giants

have been smoking mirrors this year. Bill Barnwell actually quantified it in an article that he wrote for ESPN dot com. Much of it has to do with and we'll just go through a few things. John's are five and one in games decided by seven points are fewer. The biggest one has come by eight points. They've been outscored. This is heading into last week. They were outscored one thirty one the first three quarters, but then they were magically plus twenty two in the fourth quarter of the game

of games, which ranks fifth in the league. Um, you know, you can't really plan on that their defense actually ranked twenty six and ep A per play outside the red zone, but somehow in the red zone inside the twenty they've allowed teams to you know, they' they've allowed teams to make it to the red zone the third highest rate on a per game basis, but they're only allowing those offenses to convert thirty eight point two percent of the time heading into last week of mark, topped only by

the Broncos. So really, just by the way first and second down, they're the league's fourth worst defense by e PA por play. Then magically on third and fourth down they morph into the third best defense, you know, despite the fact that opposing offenses have the fifth fewest yards to go to pick up third downs. Against the Giants, they've been third best defensive avoiding conversions. So anyway you slice it, they've just magically come up big. And that

is the bottom line of that is is unsustainable. All of that's unsustainable. I think about our our old pet megapod co host Marco Ace, who always used to say a team is not as good as they were last week or as bad as they were. The Cowboys certainly qualified, right, They're not gonna be every team forty two three. Let alone a team the caliber of the Minnesota Vikings. But that defense is epic and I think they covered the nine and a half on Thanksgiving Day. Those are my

first two, Jeffrey. Just so you know, American is only down four thirty six. Let's American. I don't even have a response to that. Spain has just scored their fifth goal to make it five nil in the seventy seventy fifth minute. Let me just explain why I'm bringing this up. Our buddy, Drew Dinsi, who has been a Megapod guest, is in a side pool of a Calcutta where Costa Rica.

Where what he has is it's a side pool of you have a team, you pick a team and in any one game we're talking about a one game opponent, the most goals scored against that team is the object. So he has Iran. So Iran had six goals scored against them, and so he is sweating this big time right now that Espana has five goals. Yeah, that's tough for him. He already tweeted team total Spain right now. He already tweeted me r I p me. I don't blame him. I'm thinking Jacksonville plus two four is my

second pick against Baltimore. You know, the Ravens are weird because they've been up double digits in every single game. They have an elite quarterback, and yet every time I watch him, I come away saying this is a team that's gonna win a division probably going away. Last week was another example of that, where Carolina was legitimately dreadful on offense. By the way, Sam Donald starting instead of Baker Mayfield this week the right move for Carolina, and

like you said, the lie didn't move at all. Granted, they're playing Denver. Hackett could do Hackett things, but you know what, Denver is a too and a half point favorite makes no sense either. Though it totals also thirty six, so we're in the Iowa range as well. But if with Jacksonville, though, look, the analytics community loves Jacksonville. That

been in the top ten most of the year. I think that's mostly skewed because of what we saw week two, where they decimated Indian and followed it up by destroying Justin Herbert in the Chargers when Herbert was clearly not ready to play yet. But coming off of by Lawrence has gotten a little bit better as the year's got along. And this is more just the fate of Baltimore. I don't I don't know what it is, and it could torpedo me yet again, but they just don't look like

the team that everyone claims they are. And they look like a solid football team, but not quite. Hey, this team could represent the a f C in the Super Bowl. I don't see it. So I'll take four with Jacksonville at home against Baltio. I hear what you're saying about Baltimore too, and it makes you know. What's amazing about that is I still have the power ranked is like the sixth or seventh best team seven, which tells you how bad this league is that they're six or seventh. Um.

By the way, about Jacksonville. Jacksonville is three and seven and they have a plus eleven point differential. Contrast that with Minnesota, who is eight and two and they have a minus two point differential. God number two, I'm in that same football game with the Jags and the Baltimore's. I want to go over forty three and a half. I believe that's the numbers that the number you guys have for it. It's evenly split with forty three and

a half for me. Okay, so I can take the forty three and a half, then officially over forty three and a half. You tell me Gilly three and a half almost every Yeah, so there you go, you're good. Okay, So I have Baltimore over forty three and a half with the Jags. Uh. To me, the Jags have been an over team all year. Uh. They have three in a row unders, one against Denver. Throw that out. Denver

goes under against everyone. And if you watched that game, that was that London game and should have gone way over and somehow didn't. The Vegas game twenty and it went under forty eight, which is a big number. And then the Kansas City game. Those are the last three. But you know, prior to that they were playing they played the colt to thirty four seventeen game. Uh. They

played the Eagles one earlier in the year. I just feel like Baltimore, after that terrible performance offensively against Carolina, is going to figure things out. They usually get up in the twenties. They got you know, on the road, they got twenty seven in New Orleans, they got twenty seven at Tampa Bay uh, So, I don't see why they should be able to get, you know, up into

the twenties against Jacksonville. And I do like Jacksonville at home with their offense to you know, to give me some points to I just feel like it feels too low for a Jags game. Over forty three and a half I'll take. Also, I just feel like the Ravens have been in you know, they weren't great early in the year offensively and I mean defensively. Remember the game against Miami where they gave up a million um. They blew that Buffalo game when they were ahead by a

zillion in the second half. I just feel like they're They're a team that is not great on defense. And just because they held the Saints in Carolina at a thirteen and three doesn't mean anything to me. So I'm gonna go over forty three and a half in Baltimore, Jags. All right, Ace, you get your second and third here we snake. By the way, why you were in the

Cowboys had Is there a reason for that? Just a little future, a little free future to the viewers out there, they may want to jump the Cowboys, little value their long term just giving it out there somehow me we're just the opposite on the totals. Either I'm gonna have a big day or my man's gonna have a big day. But I'm gonna go back to Thanksgiving and for my second bed. And I absolutely love the Patriots at two

and a half. It's a money line play. That's why I'm not concerned that it's off that key three, because I was simply looking to bet them on the money line and also tie them up into teasers. They make a beautiful teaser up the plus eight and a half, tie them up with some things on Sunday. I think it's a great spot because it's a defense that's going

to keep the game close at the very least. I mean, we know the mean absolute error and nfls ten plus points, so you don't want to tease a lot um, But there are some spots where I do think it does make sense. And I think when you have a New England defense that's playing like they've been playing, uh, the teaser just makes a lot of sense to me. Um. Bottom line with with Minnesota, Tony is a three dollar bill. I know you've heard me say that before. This is

that big example of the team that's just phony. Um. It's the time of the year where you start to look at that Pythagorean wins, um, and you look at their point differential. This is not a nine eight excuse me, NAT and two football team. They got a minus two point differential. And I get it they got blown out last week, but prior to last week, going into last week, their point differential was awful for an eight and one football team. UM. Bottom line, Uh, it doesn't get any

more simpler than that. It's a fade against Minnesota coupled with the perfect storm of New England coming off a win like they did against the Jets. I was on the wrong side of that. In fact, I had the Jets and watched that point return trush my plus three and a half them plus four that I had on

the game. Um. But still you get a win like that off of the revision opponent when it matters, not like the Jets of yesteryear, and it's great momentum rolling into this week, where on the flip side with Minnesota it's the opposite. You just got blown out. But I think that late game on Sunday, I mean on Thursday, is why this line is still on the Minnesota side favorite.

I mean this should be a pick them. I really do think on a neutral field records aside, New England's the better football team, especially that defensive side of the football, They're gonna be able to shut them down. Uh, And I think they easily win this game. You don't need the points, but it's always nice to have a cushion, and why not take the eight and a half on a teaser. But yeah, I'll use the Patriots as my

second pick. I really like New England. On Thursday, Christian darrisaw out again Piers once, so you I was just gonna I was just gonna ask him if he's concerned about going against a team that lost forty three because typically we see in the NFL. Yes, I wanted if there wasn't a Minnesota Vikings team that was rolling, like if they had outperformed the betting market for a number of weeks. So it's not as if like I expect them all of a sudden to be looked down on,

like they're not being faded by the betting public. I didn't see that, Like they came out as a three point favorite against New England. Um, I don't think there's that rush the judgment as far as all this team, like, I think they're phony. I thought they were phony going into that game. I had Dallas irrelevant. Um. But I'm not afraid of that where it's a great point because usually I'm a huge mean reversionist I looked for in all sports because we all revert back to the mean.

It's just just fact of life. Every thing does, every market, equities, crypto sports. It doesn't matter you go too far one way, It's gonna come back the other way. It always does. And that's why when you underperformed the betting market by five touchdowns, usually you expect the bounce back. But I think that it's a perfect situation. You're on Thanksgiving, you're that primetime night game, you're at home, you're giving less than a field goal, and on top of it, you're

you know, eight win football team. God. I don't think they they got enough of correction off of that loss. I don't think it's been felt yet, Jeffrey. The thing I'm curious with New England is because I was close to taking New England are not gonna make my top three today? How much of what we've seen the last three games with New England. Is the fact that they've

went played against Zach Wilson, Sam Ellinger, Zach Wilson. How much of that is that this defense which has been great in those three games, How much of that is that the defense really is that good? And how much of it is that those quarterbacks are just dreadful, dreadful, dreadful. And look, it's a pretty good case study because you're getting Kirk Cousins in a prime pop game right out of the shoot. So we're gonna we're gonna learn a lot this week about Look, Minnesota is what they are.

They're gonna win the NFC North because everyone else sucks in that division. I I agree with Ace. I think they're fraudulent as well. But we're gonna learn a lot about the Patriots on on Thanksgiving Night because if they are legitimately good, they do go to Minnesota win that

game real quickly. The a f C East, like we give it no respect, but it's the only team every single team is positive point differential, Like they may not be the most you know, the nine and one football team, so the eight that everyone's talking about or putting up a bunch of points, but every single one of those teams has a winning record and every one of them

has a positive point differential. It's a competitive division. And looking at a team like New England, who's um, you know, five and two in conference to and one in that division and just sitting there at six and four and not getting much attention, I think there's a lot about you on a team like New England again, where they've lost that historical luster that they've had for decades, you know,

the last fifteen plus years. For those wondering in the NFC East, where everybody has a winning record, the Giants are plus one in point differential in Washington is minus and nine ACE. I was gonna say this for the end of the show, but this is a tweet from A. J. Caldera twenty three because I've been promoting on a numbers game that you'd be on the megapod this week, and he said. Some of the bingo cards elections for VRS return include one, I love this board, They're great, to God,

bless America. What a country? Three? What a country that's three? Fake? Is a three dollar bill? Did you say that earlier? FACS three? That wouldn't that's a bingo? And four he said prose, but not referring to athletes. You refer to pros all the time. Y's right, are afraid to athletes at all? He beats the Vegas Lifestyle Show. I think on that one. All right, your number three sir, All right, I'm gonna take you into uh you know what, I'm

gonna stick to prime time. I was gonna give you I'll share it anyway because I love to give out. I tell you I did. I bet the Buccaneers already and I also bet the first half under in that game sharing it out there, But instead I'm gonna take it a prime time Monday Night? Is that okay? If we go to Monday Night? Of course, because I bet the Steelers. I love Pittsburgh. And this is as simple

as this. Let's not get into the deep boundingly. There's a lot of guys that are so much smarter than me out there that could come on and tell you all kind of data and stats and regurgitate all kind of stuff that isn't proprietarry, but what have you um? Anyway? But it's as simple as this. Who are the Colts to be favorite over anybody? It doesn't matter who it is, like, what in what world, should the Colts be coming in

as a favorite. They've done nothing but underperformed. Let's not forget coming into the season, this team was expected to win ten football games, and that's the only reason there's still that. Maybe they're just unlucky, or maybe no, they're just terrible. They're a bad football team and they have no business being favor That to me is as simple as it gets, and I get it. Pittsburgh is who we thought they were. I love that go because they are.

There are three and seven football team. They're one game under five hundred against the spread, kind of what you expect um, but they're in that underdog role. And I love that fact because there's just so much randomness in a sixty minute football game. We see it each and every week. And when you have a bad football team like the Indianapolis Colts in the favorites role, like in what world would I ever want to trade my money

for that bet ticket? Like maybe if they're in an underdogar that could make that argument, But other than being home, which they're below five hundred at home, Like, what is there really to make them a favorite? To me, it's just that simple. It's just a fade against a bad football team that's favored because someone has to be I guess, And it's on Monday night football and they're at home. But I think again, the Steelers are in a great spot. It's a reason for them to show up. It's a

prime time game. You're a young, hungry football team. You know you're not going to the playoffs. But it is a nice, nationalized, televised game that matters for them, and I think they're gonna get their A game, and their A game, which for a three and seven team is good enough to beat a four and six team on any afternoon Like. It's not as if it's out the realm of possibility that a three and seven team beats a four and six team. So for me, it's as simple as that. Again, not to make it any harder

than it needs to be. Indianapolis has no business being favored, even against the three and seven Pittsburgh Steelers. Give me the Steelers. I'll take them on the money line. Points are puts, it drops down, um, But yeah, I give me the Steelers. It's fine time, Monday night on the money line, they win this game in Indianapolis. What do you think about Well, I'll tell you. It is the American Eagles take the lead against the Nathaniel Hacket of

the college basketball coaching realm. That's Patrick Ewing. It's fifty three fifty two in the games memorial. My American Eagles are making it up all game plus Spain Spain. Just Spain just scored their sixth dying. As far as I will, I do want to say one thing about my boy Canny pick It. I haven't been real optimistic about Mr Pickett up until now. He did show some green shoots of optimism last week when he did play pretty well in the freezing cold tundra here in Pittsburgh. I did

have a free parking at the River's. Most people did not, you know, game day they charged sixty bucks. Anyway, Uh, I will say that I like that. I like ass call air. It looks like a tomlinesque kind of ball game where he just grinds it done. He grinds it done until halftime, and he just keeps grinding and grinding. Tel Maddie Ice on third and eight at seventeen sixteen from the thirty four plus thirty four takes a sack and the Steelers have a chance to win. This guy, oh,

my god. Did you did you happen to hear the ESPN promo for this game? No where it's it's Buck on the voiceover where it's Tomlin and the Steelers, big pause, like bigger than usual Saturday in the Colts, where it sounds like Buck is trying with all his might, even in the promo not to laugh at the fact that Jeff Saturday is coaching this game. Ryan pick it, catch the fever? What's your todd, I don't you know what I have. I'm just I keep looking at these games

and I just don't like anything. But I'm gonna do this. And here's what I'm gonna do. If in doubt go to the song Miami Dolphins go over Ford to seven Miami Dolphins. They love to score. Two is in a Hall of Famer, but he throws the Hall of Famers. We're going over forty seven with the Hall of Famer Davis melt Okay, do you see what happened after you left? You see what happened to this thing? Yeah? You go back to over Miami against Houston. Miami is your over

team extraordinaire in the National Football League. You cannot stop them. Those receivers are just absolutely ridiculous. Uh you know, if you put almost any quarterback with these guys with this, with Hill and then and Waddle, I mean, this is ridiculous. The weapons at Miami have. They score into the thirties every single game. Houston just had a terrible performance offensively.

We have seen them show signs of life. Remember the game against the Giants two games ago where they were inside the tent about a thousand times and only ended up with sixteen points against Miami's defense, which is not that great. Why can't we get a thirty seven to I don't know, fourteen ballgame thirty seven to you know, thirty fourteen. That gets me over forty seven, So give me over forty seven. There you go. You've got your song,

your Miami Dolphins song that everyone loves. You, got your yen's you're talking at So you got everything you need. And up and Spain scores their seventh I said on a on a numbers game this morning they might win by a touchdown. And then there it is, and there's still six there's still five, six minutes of stoppage time. I have costa Rica under a half. It was part of a parlay. So please keep no goals Costa Rica. Um, well, they're not going to score. This is please don't say that.

Please take that back. I won't. They won't and has the lead and the gilly Ice Memorial. By the way, Patrick, did I die? Why did I die? Your soul is dying every day. Parents. I want to give you a little pro tip. You know how they have pro tips on visa. I'm not aware of those. Patrick Ewing ever, look maybe a very nice man, but it does not have the chops for college basketball coaching. This is just a sloppy basketball team. They've been sloppy for years. They're

sloppier than than you've ever seen him. This year, Oh my god, Patrick, didn't Patrick, you have one year where they went winless in the Big East. Yes, but then the following year they won the Big East Tournament. And they because they got that lucky, They got that like lucky little run. But they're terrible. They really are terrible, and they will just drive you crazy with the ridiculous start.

They should be winning this game by a hundred when they were Okay, okay, when people listen to this, the game's gonna be over. What do you have, Todd just getting out the American Plus twelve. I said it before I have American plus twelve. I was down seventeen in the first time. I was nervous, but Patrick Ewing brought me back. This is on Twitter. This is from Seawn Underscore.

Gaff said best ace quote was when you were talking about a suspended Jamis Winston for his uber incident and a saying quote, you can't do that since when That's why I take lift hashtag sprinkle. There you go, that's awesome, that's so true. The tip, I thought, who's gonna say, because I'd always like to share a couple of pro TiO. Never pay all the money up front, never more than half the service is going to be absolutely terrible. It's gonna can't wait to get out the door. If you

never want to pay off front. What are we referring to specifically? Wait again, he's I think he said pro tips. I think he's talking about transactions between those people. I believe those tips a literal pro tip. Yes, Jeff, Jeff, Jeff's too young to hear this stuff go ahead apparently so yeah, so I totally lost my train of thought. You know what, he had the money all of well, he's about to get married. He's about to he's about to stop the ol cart ordering here. That would have

never happened. I don't only front. It would have been the best hour of low meanwhile, so I'll take ace plus two points in any transaction to Yeah, I think that's three for three on that. All right, So this line just moved moved on me while we while Todd was talking. But I really don't care. We're gonna it's the same game Todd is on. We're gonna lay the damn lumber with the Miami Dolphins against those Houston Texans.

It's thirteen and a half now, and legitimately just got bed in the last five minutes, so but I really don't care. Um, the Dolphins can't be covered by anyone. The only games they've been able to be covered Hill and Waddle are the games that Skylar Thompson had to play and and Teddi Bridgewater had to play, and where the Jets with great corners were able to shut those guys down with bad quarterback play and the Vikings gave up a zillion yards they just kept him out of

the end zone. But other than those two games, no one can cover these dudes. These dudes are so fast. Tyreek Hill is the offensive player of the year. I don't care what anyone else says. If you can get anything north of plus two fifty, that's a good bet. Still, Wattle is awesome, and the Houston Texans have given up, completely given up. He's totally worthless, totally worthless. And Miami, look, they're in a They're in a big time race in

the AFC East. As A said earlier, all four of those teams, if all four of those teams that competent quarterback play, I would say all four of them would have a chance to actually make make a big run in the playoffs. Two of those teams don't have competent quarterback play. That's why New England and the Jets are clearly behind Miami and Buffalo in that division right now. But if Miami wants to play even three and a half quarters here, they're scoring thirty five points in this game.

And the only reason I'm not following Todd and taking me over is Houston. Despite the fact that Miami's defense stinks, Houston could very easily put up a ten in this game. So I'd rather just lay the lumber. I'll take my Yeah, yeah, but David Smith, this is an outdoor game for Davis Mills, he's, as we know, horrible outdoors, now mediocre at home. Jeff has to rejigger Davis Mills thing. He's not mediocre at home. He's really good Gil when they play in white uniforms

and um. By the way, the thing about Wattle and Uh and Hill, but you think about how people people revere Duper and Clayton. That was all Dan Marino, and you just think about, like, what are the two best what are the best duos in NFL history. It's gotta be it's gonna be Rice and Taylor, right, Swan and what do you in stalk in a bath? Swan and Stalworth. But like I really think like Hill and Wattle have

the potential to be in that group. By the way, best trio of all time, Monk Clark Sanders, best quartet of all time, Let's see how good you are? No, No, best quartet a white house. I know I was kidding. Gibbons, Hill, Jefferies and Curtis Duncan with the oilers better. Oh yeah, they were. They were very good. Up thirty two three. I believe in games being up. I believe that Uh yea their own actually won that game. I had the Bills minus the two and a half. Frank Reich came

back beauty. Thank god they didn't have replay because DeAndre read Touchdow wouldn't accounted forty one thirty eight. Then the greatest comeback of all time. Do you know who else played that same day in the playoffs? Um, Washington did not. It was a Hall of Famer who died early, who Reggie White? And that the Eagles was the game right after that ball game. It was a great game. Well, first we had Indiana, Kentucky and college back Okay, okay, okay.

Who did Who did Philadelphia play that day in the playoffs? Uh? Philadelphia, I don't remember. I just remember they were really good that year. That it was the Eagles of Reggie White and you couldn't block them. And uh that was a game right after that amazing. It was very simple. I'll make a quick here, Gil, so we're not continuing. Philadelphia beat New Orleans thirty six. Philly scored twenty six points in the fourth quarter in that game to come from behind.

And I don't remember that game at all. I was not alive yet, Jeff was not alive. You the greatest comeback in National Football League history three in the second half. We all remember where we were for that game. It was really impressive. Where were you remember? For sure? Not watching it. I don't remember Rent, so not definitely not watching. But I try to make that a happen. Honestly, that's

the one thing. And in a lot of the people don't believe me, but I really try not to watch any of this stuff just because it makes you so biased, and after like doing it for as long as I have, I've won a game and lost the game every possible way. And because I met Vonume like it, thought like one game really doesn't matter. So I'd be sitting there like a crack addict looking at scores like eight like back in the day, picking up the score phone the call

to hear him over and over again. Seriosely now I do kind of like just any other market. It's like I I buy suck. I don't cheer it in, like I'm not sitting there going yeah, tesla, yeah, go tesla. Right it goes, you sell it like I'm not cheering in Like, yes, I shorted you know who did like short last week? I shorted um JP Morgan, I shorted JP Morgan and next on mobile, like because I think

they're gonna drop. But I'm not sitting there like cheering against them, like reading every day looking at the thing. I don't know. I just if you do something for so long, or you get past the why you're doing it, like I now do it for profit, So it's just a it's a little bit different, like you get past all the nonsense. You remember me and we've been doing this now for so long, Gilt. I was just thinking real quickly in the time of your podcast, like how

how things have changed sported. It's like gam sports betting was almost was illegal everywhere. No one like no one the least wouldn't want to talk about it, and yet here we are now it's like they're just every commercial is about Parlay's and bet here, bet there, bet here, bet there draw. When we were growing up, it was like putting warning labels on cd s because it was like n w A. Now it's like weeks or on

every corner like that. Everything just like change so quickly, So what I'm getting I just don't take it all so seriously. And that's why I try not to dive into watching this stuff as well, because I bet it seriously, and if you're doing it for entertainment, it's different, Like then have at it, have fun that it's different, But if you're doing it for profit, it's just not fun watching it. I don't know. Maybe I'm just different. I watch everything. I feel like you can learn, you can

learn so much by watching. I'm just not wired that way. Dr Bobb used to say all the time he used to wear it. He used to wear it like as a badge of honor. He goes, gil, I don't. I don't watch any of it like I used to say too, I don't. I just disagree because what I see is this, and I've learned from M M A that, Like we've even know from the courts, like the legal system, the justice system has told us that the least reliable testimony is I witness, Like what we see and what's that

really happening? It could be two completely different things. Our perception plays such a huge role where unlike with data and numbers, where it's irrelevant, like how you're feeling that second that you're watching it, Like it's a good debate, it's a good debate argue that Golosh. I argue for Goolosh, you've got to see and you've got to agree with agree with it's a Goolosh model because if you're just

on the stats, you miss little certain things. For example, a team can be moving the ball two yards per play and then hit an eight one yard play and all of a sudden the stats look normal, and vice versa. You know, if you don't watch this American Georgetown game, you don't realize how that Patrick Ewing is as a coach. Also, no, I'm just kidding about that, but but but seriously, I

do believe that. And also for in game and and I take your point that you can be biased, but if you've watched enough ball games, if you've watched enough ball game, I'm not talking about if you you watch recreationally. I'm talking about if you watch hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of games, and then you can put the stats of a game to the what it looks like in in in reality you can really pick stuff out. Is because you can see things. But how do you do that? Seriously,

I think there's a great conversation for the listeners. Like what I'm saying is, give you example you want me to give you an example. Even if I'm learning vou and I'm only going to bet five sides today basketball, I'm gonna bet five sides. So realistically, I should go back and watch the last three or four or five games or each five of those teams, right, and they're I bet you, I bet you if you had, if you had the time to do it, it would be very worth who does? But we don't, So then what's

what's the point of watching any of it? Is? What? I will give you an example, give you an example. I'll give you an example of where I think it is. Here's an example of where I think it is, Gilly, if we have like a minute just to do this, Okay, For example, college football games, you're gonna see a lot

of teams averaging upwards of nine yards of play. Okay, if you're watching those games and you're seeing the stats, and you're at like the twelve minutes left in the second quarter, and you see a team's averaging over nine yards to play, and you're watching the game, and you see why they're averaging nine and a half yards to play, you can bet their team total over and win at a ridiculously alarming rate. And I'm just giving you that

as one example. But if you know what it looks like when a team is averaging nine yards to play, and it's not fictional because you've seen it so many times, you can take advantage of that. Gilly, do you would you would agree? I would agree with Todd, And I think it is I think it is a tried and true debate. I think it's a great one to have through the years. And what I was saying before Dr Bob, who's you know, pioneer and using analytics to predict sports. He used to wear it as a badge of honor.

Probably still does. He said, Oh good, I don't watch. You know, I don't watch nearly nearly as much as you do. I had the hint, I had the hint that he probably watched more than he was letting on. But he thought it was like sort of a badge of honor. And I always used to say to my go, you know what, Bob, I'm not wired that way, and I believe the more that I watch it can only help me. Um, that's in games, the best market there is. I mean, it's it's it's I mean, where are you

going to find a game? No? No, No, in games a different animal. That's a different that's what, that's why, that's why, why. That's like day trading. That's a completely different animal. You have betting. You're betting time, like specific moments in time, so you have to be in the moment. That's completely different. When we're betting a game on Tuesday that goes Sunday your swing trading. You're not day trading. You don't have to be right there on top of it.

That's all I'm saying. It's completely different. It's you either have an edge with your approach or you don't. It's kind of like an advantaged blackjack player. I could sit there and watch the dealer for eighteen hours. It's not gonna make me a winning blackjack player. I either haven't approach that beats the game, or I don't like you know, I understand your point. I understand your going to help

me what I'm saying, that's mine. I think there's still new ones I'm trying to learn, but I want to like I'm a student of betting, and that's why I asked these because I respect you all your opinions so much. I like to learn and that I just think there's nuance even even even if you're not in game betting.

I still think there are nuances there that if you don't watch the game, like especially in the NFL where everything is so tight, and you you start to pick up why Rabele can win games that you don't think he would otherwise win. You start to pick up why Tomlin can somehow find a way too with smoking mirrors be in the ballgame at the end of the game. You start picking up these little subtle clues. And that's if you're a wise watch the people are not going

to get it. I agree with you on that. It's also like again like for like for Denver, for the Denver game, like packet thing is a perfectly the thing is the perfect example of this where if you're not watching the game and you look at the box score, it's like it was a coin flip game. Five things, Yeah, five things had to happen for Denver to lose, and six things ended up happening because quickly. So we don't

keep going on. I'm just saying if you're if you're just following one or team five teams, I think it makes sense. I think if you're betting multiple markets, multiple sports and volume. It's just too big of a task to follow twenty different teams in five different betting markets and actually study the game while you're watching it, and then have the time to also analyze handicap the data you gather from that to then find an edge the

next time they play. Well, I think if you just pick one team and religiously follow them, I think it makes sense. But again, if you're betting five different sports betting markets and betting twenty games, I just think it's too typical to grasp actionable information from all of them. Let me step in and end this. And this is what makes this sports betting such a fascinating canvas which to argue about. Um, there's many ways to skin the cat and and and one should do what works for them.

See what you're doing. If you're winning, God bless you, you nailed it. That's so true. By the way, I'm not even I understand Ace's point. And it was over time, all right, we gotta move on. Last pick. Speaking of your comment about the Broncos, I'm fading the Raiders. I'm taking the Seahawks. I've been on them all year. I see no reason to uh go off that right here. So the Seahawks are laying three in the hook at

home against the Raiders. I think Geno Smith and that Raider and that Seahawks running game just has its way with the Raiders. Um, they're not gonna be able to the Raiders, not gonna be able to stop the Seahawks. And I do think that they're able to stop the Raiders on the other side of the ball. I'll make it quick because we gotta go. We have a harder out, but Seahawks minus three and a half my number three pick.

Let's go to the teasers. Teasers have have just absolutely sucked for for all of us Ace though we are we are required to come up with a two team six point teaser of the week. What would be it for you? Yeah? The one hasn't been good this year. It's just how it goes, man, That's why everybody's been getting killed that's been doing it. But I'm gonna go ahead and not long to get betters of a little more action. Let's go with the Eagles on Sunday night

against the Green Bay. I know it's square to square as they come, but I think you get this Eagle team that does bounce back and gets the win at home. Bottom line, it's it's again square, but I think it makes sense. Uh. And then let's go ahead and tie them up with another and also low total. You want to look for a low total Carolina at Denver. Yeah, low total there thirty six and a half. We take Carolina at home all the way up the eight eight

and a half. So let's go Carolina, let the touchdown and take the bird a little prime time action at home, just to get it done by the game out. I thought you were going to take New England because you loved him so much, but I wanted to give a little more stuff, all right, I was I was gonna say New England. Uh fits that parameter. Also New England or Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Also, you want to say something, Jeffrey, Okay, I thought you were waiting, all right, Dotty, I didn't.

First of all, I didn't realize we had a hard at, and that if you would have told me that had a hard at, I went to continue with the conversation, but I thought it was an interesting conversation. I liked to apologize it was, but we can't go twenty minutes on it. No, I know, I'm apologizing. I'm saying I'm sorry for for for going too long. Had I known it wasn't hard out, I went too long anyways. Eagles minus one, I'm with Ace on that. I'm take my

Enser's plus eight and a half. I think Tomlin's gonna do you know, you know what he does? You know what he does? You know what he does? Uh say, is there a Mike Tomlin stat any of us know? Oh? Yeah, they never had a losing record. That's right, Jeffrey, because he's as Stiller's up to eight and a half. I'm with everyone there, and then against my better judgment, I'm gonna push the Titans up the seven and a half. That's what I'm doing against the Cincinnati Bank. Why do

you think that's against your better judge? Because the one thing that has happened this year and part of the reason that I think long teasers have blown up like they have good offenses have blown up teaser uh those teaser legs this year. So I'm a little bit concerned. It looks like Chase is gonna come back for Cincinnati, but Vybel blows up everything the other way because he just continues to win games with this mediocre roster he has in that I'm doing the Titans because I don't

think they should have been the dogs. I think they should have been the one and a half point favorites instead. So I'm definitely taking the Titans up through the three and the seven, and I'm gonna take the Panthers just because i don't think the Broncos can blow them off the field. Sam Donald, right, So I'm going Titans Panthers. And by the way, the Broncos stat replaces the Matt

Rulestat as the best stat of the year. Remember the Matt Rulestat when he was the coach of the Panthers that if if the other team scored seventeen or more points, they were like one in twenty six or one in

twenty seven, and the Matt rule administration. The Broncos now, if they had scored eighteen points in regulation and all of their games this year, they would be nine and one. Oh man, God, is that bad? Instead they are they are they are just also ran team in the National Football League. And instead of being, uh, nine and one, what are they three and seven? The Broncos, Yeah, three and seven instead, God, I just want to throw something out here. Real quick. Then this now makes sense why

the number moved into Miami. Game. Kyle Allen's gonna start for Houston this week. Kyle Allen started for Houston. There it is the Hall of Famers. The road He's getting text like, I'm starting to think Spain is better than Costa Rica. Um, let's see if there's any more. Oh man, the tweets are coming in all this stuff. Uh that Pepsi guy so freaking pump to have Johnny back been too damn long, if you ask me, I can't wait. And I hope somebody and I hope some of the

conversations go sideways already has that's for sure. Uh, Let's see what else we got here? Do we learned? If we learned one thing, we learned about transactional, being transactional and never paying up front. That's the that's the you don't understand. That's the hall of fame of this show is the Vegas lifestyle show. That's how that's how ace I know about the history of the Let's see here do do do do do? Trying to see if there's any more here a whole bunch of people chiming in

on the old Twitter machine. Oh Christy Anders said, Mike go white as the proper pronunciation, no matter how it's spelled. For your boy, all right. Final two questions of every megapod from the show's inception. Which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Outright? It's the first of the final two, and there are a lot of choices. Buffalo nine and a half point favorites on Thanksgiving at Detroit, Cowboys nine and a half point favorites at home against

the Giants. These are massive favorites. Dolphins thirteen point favorites at home against the Texans, the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs fourteen and a half point favorites at home against the Rams. Niners nine and a half point favorites at home against the Saints. Should I keep the Eagles in the still a touchdown? Say the Eagles seven point favorites at home against the Packers. Which ace of those is most likely lose? Outright? San Francisco, Sam Francisco, Yeah, Saints hadn't won a road

game yet here, hear me out. I mean they're born one road game excuse me so far this season. But they're the type of team that has the ability to like come back or even keep it close, like you've seen some of those games that they've lost. They put up points like you saw against even Cincinnati who put up thirty against them, they put up twenty six. Arizona

put up forty two, they put up thirty four. Like they put points up and when the teams they were to put up points in a sixty minute game, they could beat an opponent, and especially a team like San Francisco who is coming off a couple of weeks where they've definitely outperformed the betting market at least two of the last three where they've covered the spread by more than two touchdowns. So you're looking a little overvalued as well. I think it's a good spot for a letdown for

San Francisco. I'd like the Saints to uh, they beat the Rams last week, should roll here again. Not not likely, but probable, all right, San Francisco team most likely lose that right to the Saints. Todd, I am the same thing because with Jimmy G, every time he goes back to past, you're just terrified. You're just you're just terrified with the guy. If you bet on the forty niners and Jimmy G goes back. I just want them to

hand the ball off. When I take the Niners, I turn around Jimmy and give it to the guy behind you. I don't know, I don't care who it is. Just run the football because every time that guy goes back to past, I am terrified. When I have the Niners, you know, despite their record, Cousins still is more terrifying for me because there's some about his ball that he throws that I'm like, that is never getting to the

receiver and somehow it has gotten there. But but Jimmy g throws the ball and it bounces around and it tips off this guy's hand and it tips off that gud like at least telling wise, I think this team is the Jets of Jimmy Garoppolo to beat Aden two right now. But that's a different argument for a different day. Um, I am going to just stay on brand here and do like I do every single week with this question, and I'll the Bills to Detroit even though I don't

really buy that. This week, yeah, I'm gonna say Bills to Detroit even though I don't really buy it either. But since someone asked the question, I mean, you have to give an answer. I Dallas was number four this week for me guild. I think Dallas is just gonna the Giants. I do too. By the way, if I had not picked the Bills, I would have taken the Eagles. Not because I think Green Bay is any good, but I don't. I don't know. The Eagles man look awfully

shaking at me right now. All right, then the final question. We live in a bizarro world. Ace. We have to bet every single one of these games on the side, but we're allowed one free pass. What is the game you want no part of, sir, Bears Jets sticking out to me Jets because I got the way they burned me last week. So it's a little taste in my mouth. Also, um probably again, I try to keep my bias out

of it, but obviously it's poked its head here. And uh, you have a three in a Chicago team on the road. Not thing it gets me excited about this game. I don't even know if it's uh the totals off. I see some places it was all just a game. I'm not uh interested in at all Jets Chicago especially do we know about justin field yet in this game? Eberfoosh claims he's back at practice today. Claims claims the total dropped four points, the lines moved, went up then down.

It's just one of those ugly games. You forgot the most important question. What's the score? In the Vegas Memorial volume, it's the American Eagles sixty six to Georgetown. How sixty four? With just I'm int ask to know. You gotta turn it on. Folks. Really can't help yourself that I don't want any part of Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleve Brownie's. I have no idea what I'm getting with this Buccaneer team. Is it? Is it tom Brady good? Is Tom Brady bad? Is Can the Buccaneers move the ball? Can they not?

Are the Browns good? Sometimes they look amazing, sometimes they look terrible? Get out of game. That's my choice too. I have no clue about that game. By the way, it's also Jacoby should be pointed out, it's also Jacoby

Brissett's flast game as quarterback. So literally, this could be the Jacoby Brissett I don't give a fuck game where he just like I'm throwing the ball like down, feel like he could do whatever he wants because he knows Deshaun is right, is coming in no matter what, so like he could just hit Kelly called the Kelly Bidland from a Numbers game called the Jacoby Brissett's Yolo Game. So I don't know, I don't know what you know

to do with that. By the way, the Todd wishing of updates for an audience of one, my good friend Ben Florence, an American university grant will will love the updates, Yes, but we'll Ben like them in retroactively, will you like? It'll be fun? Tod met my my friend Ben in the past uh and introduced him to the popcorn upstairs at the Bowling Altum, the old popcorn Hack, the old popcorn Hack. But my my pick for this one is to charge is in the Cardinals because I don't know what.

I don't know if what the Chargers still are, I think they're good, but why we will Ken all and be able to stay on the field. Mike Williams going to even make it through the game on against the Chiefs and then the Cardinals just enough of Kingsbury already but with no Kylie. If Kyler Murray doesn't play, uh, I wouldn't be shocked if this is a little bit tighter. But I also wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers win

by a billion, So no nothing for me. Dr Bob just said to his teaser of the week, New England

and Pittsburgh, and wrong with that? All right, gentlemen, we've done all we can do. For Todd Wish from his mom's cork addict, nice job out of you today, Todd. By nice, I mean nice. Jeff Porla, so here on the side, I don't hear you're saying anything to Ace. I thought Ace was fantastic. Casts persons, excuse me, we're crescendoing to Ace. What about like the finishing of a thought? Don't you get like, why did you move? Because you cast dispersions at me and Ace? Johnny Vegas runner, who

upon whose shoulders? This show was built for so many years, eight years together on this show with Marco Um. Good for you, man, congratulations on all your success. Wager Talk UFC? What are you doing with UFC these days? I got two shows on Fight Pass, I got podcasts and a show we're starting our fifth season. But that show actually uh Ine and uh signed a deal for a podcast last year, so that's now about six seven months in. Enjoyed doing that, and the goal for twot twenty three

is honestly more content. I haven't done enough the last year or two and there's just so much nonsense out there. Someone has to put a stop to it. I almost feel responsibility. There you go and produce a little more content. So that's the goal for I love a great seeing you man at Greek Underscore Gambler, and happy Thanksgiving into you and yours. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody who's listening. We appreciate you being so loyal to the pot throughout these years.

Happy Thanksgiving, good luck with all your bets Thanksgiving, and on Sunday and Monday, NFL Week twelve, appreciate you listening.