Check it down Man Tuesday morning, July two. It is the Beating of the Book podcast, Kill Alexander. Thank you so much for listening today to the Q two MLB Derivatives podcast. This is one of these podcasts we do Q one Q two through uh Q one, Q two, Q three, I should say derivatives MLBS betting podcast. We've done them for years, my guest and I for a decade.
We've done these, but in the last couple of years we shifted over from the podcast side of Beating the Book and just did it on a numbers game on the radio side. We're back on the podcast format now with a Q two. You know who I'm talking about, Mark Borcher, Basse Winner. How you doing Mark? Yo? This is so exciting for me. It brings back a memory of being the first guests on your show, and I
really am proud of that. I've because you've gotten so good and so big in the industry and I can always say, well, I was the first guest on gil show. But it's it's so cool because I remember that show and like I was on my cell phone and the audio it was it was popping and and you know, the phone was cuting in and out, so I think
we'll have better audio this time. That was probably twenty eleven, mark if I'm if I'm eleven, like legitimately, legitimately before most human beings on earth at a podcast, and now everybody of course has one. Yeah, it's it's so true. It's you know, I wonder, like, how how how much time do people have to listen to all these podcasts? We met in a forum, we won't say which. We met in a forum, and we were not allowed to
interact in a solicitation kind of way. So I guess I I liked you so much or all right, you resonated with me in your baseball knowledge so much that I had the audacity to ask for your phone number off so we could talk off air, and it was quickly reprimanded. I oh yeah, we got scolded. Yes, yes, that's right, And here we are, more than a decade later.
So here's how this works. It's been great, it's been great being I'm just personally, I just wanted to take this opportunity to say how how excited I am to do your show every day. I love being on a guest on your show and I love doing the podcast. So this is exciting for me. Dude. I love having you man, you have you have been a staple throughout Um. Well,
I'm trying to think what other things. Oh, others have blamed me for you trying to hire other people at your business because they know we're associated, and of course I have nothing to do with any of that. That's so funny, man. Okay, that's a great story. That's a great story. Oh isn't it though? Okay, So for those who forgot, this is how we do this. This is essentially this whole exercise is uh an attempt to see
what in the first half. Since we're Q two and I get it, we're a little past the halfway more all the better. What what has happened betting wise in the first half of the season that is predictive for us perhaps when betting moving forward. A lot of what we're gonna talk about ultimately isn't predictive. It's gonna be just a narrative like, oh, look, this has happened, but there's no rhyme or reason to it, and it's unlikely
to sustain. But there is gonna be some insights of of things that we believe will be predictive and it's up to you, also, the listener, to determine what is predictive, but what is narrative. And it's very simple. It's good. We're just gonna go through the best money line teams again, Bizarro exercise. If you're betting them, to win a unit as a favorite, if you're risking a unit as a dog,
home road splits on those run lines. Then we'll do starting pitchers, we'll do umpires, will do first five innings, and we'll do first innings, which is super proprietary. That's the gig. You're ready, Yeah, let's go, all right, let's do it. Let's start with the most widely available. These are the money line numbers. You can get them at sites like covers dot com. Very simple to look these up.
The number one. Now, Mark and I did a we did a radio o version of this last week, and so the answers to these questions have somewhat shifted the number one money line team in baseball this year. Mark, if you're betting them again, Bizarro exercise, to win a unit as a favorite, to risk a unit as a dog.
Let's say you just beat them every single game. I get it, it's not reality, but if you did, who has been the most profitable team in baseball to this moment, sir, Well, the numbers I'm looking out of the Yankees there, you might have it. You might be looking at different numbers. So it depends on how you bet them. I've got the Baltimore Orioles at number one, up fourteen point one units on the season, forty three and forty four. Now the Orioles, I got them at fourteen point one units.
I have the Yankees. And so that's that's the difference between risk and UH. I think what they do is to risk, to risk a flat amount to win. And then I'm looking at stat Fox and stat Fox says, well, you got you know, the Yankees. You gotta risk whatever today minus three hundred, there's a three units to win one. Just because of that is an interesting aside, UH, covers does it risk one to win whatever? And right? So Covers would do in that case risk one unit to
win point three three units? Right? Exactly? Right? Sure? So got it? Yeah, So it shakes out, and I think it's in my opinion, it's it's not that big of a deal either way. But the way I do it when I send out my plays and stuff is to risk because this is a really good point, I think, because I think it gives you a better return on those underdog plays and that bears out. And when we're looking at these standings, it's it's sure is sure is true?
And I think that that's hard to something that that I'd like to try to get a decent return on underdogs, and it's hard. It's sometimes it's so hard to play these underdogs. Gil. You well, you and I were talking earlier, you on the show today on a numbers game. We were talking at Visa and we're doing this MLB betting pentathlon, right five picks in a spour day span, uh, to determine who is the greatest baseball better who's ever walked the to the earth as as I like to say.
And yeah, we were we were just sort of talking about how the today's slate, for instance, Boy, it's tough to play any of these dogs today. It is so difficult, especially the big ones. But but getting back to the to the point on the so you and I have always done it through this through the years, risking to win a unit or as a favorite, risking above a unit to win a unit, risking a unit to win
more than a unit as a dog. But it's the point being with the team's Baltimore, New York, whatever order you have them in, just think about again for baseball betters, again, just a sort of you know, uh, brief reminder to those who might be new, you know, the Yankees for them to be a top two winner to this point for major League baseball betters, think about how amazing that is. The two teams have gotten their completely different ways. Right.
Baltimore has been a dog so many times or a slight favorite, and it makes sense with their overperforming forty three and forty four and your standings, how they would be either the most profitable or second most profitable to be in baseball. But the Yankees have overcome that juice mark time and time again to get there, which is just incredible. Right, It's amazing, and and we still I could find a reason today to not bet on the Yankees. I want to hear the guy who who wants to
who wants to put money on the Reds. I want to hear that handicap, And I'm not trying to be smart about it is. Yeah, I'd like to hear the other side. Yeah, I didn't bet the Yankees, to be clear, but I couldn't think of a reason why to bet on Ashcraft and the reds um and, by the way, the Yankees. And this was pointed out by Will Hill, who works at VISA who also does the New York City cast. He has to cover local New York teams,
and he was talking about the Yankees. And what's even more incredible, I think is a great point is they have so many holes too that could be improved. Not pitching necessarily, but kinder fore left of they roll him out every days, has been good defensively, he hasn't been good offensively. Joey Gallo probably shouldn't even be in a lineup. And yet right like, there's places you could still improve that team. I think so, oh absolutely Gallo, Gallo and
and Felife are are two really good examples. So those that's those are good points. Gill. Yeah, Mets, by the way, third most profitable one inline team Houston fourth. You might have those in different orders as well, but those are the four teams by far on top of the Major League Baseball money line standings. Again, Bizarro exercise, you're Bednham every day, whether it's a favorite or a dog the biggest hemorrhaging team. Same exercise would be I've got the Angels, guil, Oh,
you do, okay, so I have it. So again, it's it's really tight between the A's, the Angels, and the Nationals. Those are the worst three by far, correct, Yeah, those are the worst three by far by The one thing that's interesting of this group, Gil is the Nationals. I think I think that their offense is pretty good. You know, if you look at their their play discipline stats their fourth in baseball on BB divided by K, which is
an important out offensively to me. The pitching is not so good, but maybe it's a team to look at playing team totals over one of the things. I looked at these stats the other day, and everybody but one one player is down on their is so power off of the National's offense, and so I think that's that's something that's going to regress to the good Gil. Okay, So I guess at the bottom, I guess the noteworthy team, right, The Nationals stink and the standings thirty eight, as do
the Athletic But I mean, is there a more disappointing team? Obviously, the betting market, and what we're talking about reflects that than the Angels. I mean horrific, right. I have them down almost eighteen units on the season, thirty eight and forty nine, arguably with the two best players in baseball and Trout Notani, and they still can't get it together. Isn't that amazing? Gil? And I was one of the guys who was somewhat bullish on the on the Angels.
I kind of liked them outside chance of winning that a l West. But if you would have told me that you would have gotten a Tonny with with an e r A of two point four four, a base winner e r a of two point four four, I would have been like, man, that team is gonna be right in the thickest things. They sure are. They sure are not. By the way, that's another team tonight. Right again, we're doing this on a Tuesday, so forgive this part
won't like sort of stand the test of time. But they're a home dog with cinder guard on the hill today and not a very big one against the Astros. I believe it is. I can't get to play the Angels price. I just can't get there. Yeah, Well, the only thing is is Alvarez is out of the lineup, right that that makes a big difference synder Guard. And I will admit because I went on your show and I said, we'll watch out for synder Guard. He could be an outside chance to win the cy Young. And
he's been terribly. He has not been the Noah synder Guard of old, that's for sure. But some of his numbers are okay, he's kind of survived. But I just I can't bet him. I can't even bet him with with the alvare is out of the lineup. By the way, for the podcast audience, Mark is being super humble because he called Robbie ray And a a hundred to one to win the cy Young last year. In July, he had the yang Key's way over their season win total this
year at nine. Just some of his recent calls, um so when he's self deprecating, know that there is uh, there's genius behind it as well. By the way, I'll just I'll just give you the home road splits the best home roads, and I'm just curious. I'll just ask the simple question, what of this do you think is meaningful? What is sustainable? What is just random? Baltimore most of their money when is at home. Close to twelve units of their winds have been at home at Camden Yards Yankees,
most of theirs at home. Those are the two best home money line teams in baseball. Baltimore and the Yankees also the two best overall. They're the two best at home, the two worst at home the Oakland A's, followed by the Washington Nationals. You know, the White Sox would be a distant third at home. That was the one we seized upon last time. The White Sox are super bad at home for betters, and they're actually up about five
units on the road. And we were talking about this and and I'll just sort of get you to repeat that. You think that's completely random, right about the White Sox home road splits, Yes, Skill, I think that's a random stat. If somebody can give me an explanation for for that disparity, please tell me, because I'd be dying to find out. And again, I'm not trying to be smart. I just can't find an explanation. Yeah, other than just just pure variants on that gil, I would agree and then away
in case anyone's interested. The Padres are actually the most profitable team on the road. About eight and a half units if you bet them every single time. Favorite or dog on the road, Houston I have his number two, and I have the Mets is number three. And then in terms of that that just road records. And again with with San Diego, Houston and the Mets. Part of the
explanation is they're just good at baseball generally speaking. And then the worst teams on the road, the Angels are by far the world on the road, so at least half of their loss comes on the road when you bet the Angels, and it's pretty evenly split. Actually home in road, the Angels just stink both places. And then after that it's you know, the poopoo platter of the Reds and the Rockies on the road. The Rockies, of course,
we I think we should seize on that. The Rockies, who are you know, down two and a half units roughly on the season and the money line exercise up close to four units at home, down a little more than six units on the road. That is very Rockies esque, isn't it. Yeah? And if you look at the Rockies, Uh, this has been a consistent thing that's happened over the years since uh two thou nineteen so this is two one and this year they're eighty three and one nine
straight up on the road. So you know, that's that's pretty amazing. And I think that there's something to it. I I just don't think that the hitters can adjust from the altitude that I think it takes them a while to adjust and and it's it's amazing. But every year you see that, and then I'm guilty of it. I don't see the opportunity to bet against them on the road enough in my opinion. That's so that's is a great point for those of us have been doing
that for years. Mark, It's such a great point what you just said, which is we can describe these things in a macro way, right, like we know this Rockies thing to be a truism tried in true year after year, but in our daily assessment of value on individual game lines, it just never gets there for us. So then we view it in the rear view and we're like, oh, we missed this massive opportunity again, what's wrong with us? But sometimes it's just not at clear on a daily basis,
yet incrementally over time it manifests. By the way, just in case, and I'll ask you again, is there anything to this? The biggest discrepancy on the money line, and then we'll go to run line, the biggest discrepancy on the on the on the money line, home road splits the Oakland Athletics we just talked about, we're one of the three worst teams period in baseball. Beending on the money line makes sense. They suck their twenty nine and fifty nine, but eighteen and a half of their units
lost ore are at home. They're actually up a half unit on the road. Do you make anything of that? Now? It's it's it's hard to do to make anything and that The only thing I can think of on that is the park is such a cavern there, so maybe they don't have you know, maybe they don't have the real power bats uh to to be successful in that big cavern park. But then when they go to more of a neutral park, they can get some home runs, uh,
their their offense can get some more home runs. It's an interesting question, being an interesting sort to see how really powerful teams do when they go to Oakland. Maybe there's something there from a handicapping standpoint where if these guys have you know, they're hitting the ball, not three sixty with the home run. They're hitting the ball for twenty with the home run. How they how they perform? Uh, and that that ballparks awful. I can hardly wait till
we's see it go. And it's by the way, the game experience, it's like on the road, the road to the airport. It's just awful, just horrible. By the way, there was a cat, a feral cat infestation during the pandemic. Did you hear about this? So there's no I didn't hear about Oh yeah, no, no, you can't make this up. Like during the pandemic, the stadium, obviously empty, was overrun with feral cats. And because it's the Bay Area, this is like the most Bay Area story ever. They're like
looking for people to adopt the cats. They won't do anything, they won't do anything bad to the cats. It's phenomenal. I love it. Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. Alright, maybe they're going to Vegas. Maybe they're gonna come to come to your city. Maybe maybe. Indeed, all right, run line, uh de facto power sort of ranking who are the best teams on the run line. Remember as a favorite, they're giving a run and a half as a dog. They're
getting a run and a half. The Baltimore Orioles up eighteen units ish on the run line their number one, the Dodgers and Mets right after that, by way, interestingly with the Texas Rangers, another strange team that ends up in the top five in terms of run line. So again check your one run records. That might have a lot to do with all of that. And then at the bottom some of the usual suspects. Washington is down twenty units on the run line. Basically when they get beat,
they get beat bad. Kansas City down fifteen units. Milwaukee's actually in there on the run line. Uh, they're They're in the in the top three in terms of the worst on the run line, Toronto and Oakland rounding out Toronto, Oakland, Cincinnati running up the top six. Those are by far of the six worst on the run line. Um, what what of that is interesting to you? And mainly with Baltimore, what I want to ask you is would you bet them twenty five to one to make the postseason right
now they're only two games out of a wild card. No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't beat him. I I have them at seventy three point two wins, which puts him thirteen wins off of Tampa Bay, which I have Tampa Bay. Adding that interestingly enough that the third wild card, all the wild cards, according to my model, are gonna come from the A L. East. I call it the A L Beast. It's it's quite the quite the division, and the closest team that's gonna challenge the Rays would be,
by by my projections, the Seattle Mariners. I have them at eighty five point six wins. So I I don't think. I mean, Baltimore is a feel good story. They're doing a lot of good things there, but they've got to play in that division. That division is really tough. Yankees, Blue Jay's, Red Sox Raise, They're all really good teams, good pitching, good hitting, and uh, I just think that's
kind of the downfall. I think if you put Baltimore in the Central Division, they maybe maybe you gotta play there, But just the fact that they've got to they gotta go mount on a manto against good teams in their division. That's a tough thing. You know. It's a good point. By the way, anything to Milwaukee and Toronto being so bad on the run line or is that just kind of random? I think it's right. I think it's random.
I you know, I really like this Brewers team when they get back to full health or Woodruff, Peralta and Burns. I think that, you know, the key is is is can they stay healthy? Can the back end of that bullpen stay healthy? But I think if they if they do, I think they'll be Okay, Gil, Okay, let's go to uh. This is real quick starting pitcher money. I don't think there's a whole bunch to this in many cases, but
we like to just go through it. It's starting pitchers when they have taken the hill and you have been on the team behind them. What have who have been the most profitable starting pitchers in all of baseball this year? Martin Perez? Mark is our old friend Martin Perez. The Rangers are thirteen and four final scores right final outcomes in games that he's started. So part of that's gonna be Perez. Part of it inevitably has nothing to do
with Perez. But the Rangers are thirteen and four. You'd be up over nine and a half units betting Rangers games blindly when Perez takes the hill. Gilbert for the Mariners is second, Joe must Grow for the Padre Raises third, and then Tonight's starter for the reds Ashcraft. Some houpis in the top five. So you never know with these things anyway, Yeah, they're they're you know that Perez is a feel good story. And I've been critical on the past of Martin Perez, but I can say that I
have him better than average right now. He's just a little bit better than average, five percent better than average, but he's better than average. So although he made the All Star Team, and that's to me, the way they select the All Star teams kind of not not perfect, I guess, but he deserves the All Star Team more than Paul Blackburn deserves the All Star degree. Yeah, no, it's very good. But again, with a lot of these, you're like, you know, some of it means something. I
don't know. There's a bunch to read into here, like Tony Gonsolin, for instance, who has an impeccable record with the Dodgers, a perfect record. His personal win loss Dodgers are thirteen and three. Ultimately, when he's on the hill, you'd only be up four point two units. So he's eleventh most profitable um by the way at the bottom, just in in case anyone's curious, if you go down to like the the worst of these, the one eighties
six and dead last picture. In terms of when he has started for his team, whose hemorrhage the most money, it's a toss up between Frankie Mantas of the A's and Patrick Corbin of the Nationals, both of whom have lost you over ten units this year backing their respective teams Oakland and Washington three and fourteen in Montas and Corbin's respective starts. Now with Corban, that's pretty much expected. Yeah, I don't know, I don't I have Patrick Corbin about
average and that's better, That's right. I'm sorry. Yeah, Yeah. The one thing that's that's interesting about about Montes is Montes is a good picture. So, like, I mean, I don't know, maybe these people have bet that we're electing people to the All Star Game, bet on Mantas, and they're so pissed that they put Blackburn in instead of Montask.
He should he should get in as an be four Blackburn, right, you know, Look, I would generally I don't know about this year, but yeah, I mean, look a lot of these when we go through these pictures, much like with the teams, we're just talking about these. The the bottom of these pictures stats typically, although not this year, really will always feature some you know starter that's like minus two hundred every night out that just has a bad first quarter or half of the season, like Kershaw has
been at the bottom of this list before. As I recall now it's Montas, Corbin, Dunning, Green, I guess Snell where the padres were one in eight, you know when when he was starting. So anyway, that's just whatever that is. Let's go to the umps because this is this is something you have historical stats on. So this is really
good for betters, particularly when you're betting totals. Uh, there are certain umpires who tried and true through the years, will show a propensity for having a really small strike zone which could lead to big totals, or a very wide one which could lead logically to very low ones. Now I'll give you what the numbers are this year, and you'll tell us which of these from an over and understand point, Mark is uh sort of jibes with your and we'll do it with a minimum number of
games of five behind home plate. But the but the most reliable over umpires in baseball thus far this year, Nick Marley five out of five behind home plate over games, Hunter Wendel Steat six of seven have gone over when he's called balls and strikes. Brian Knight, not Brian McKnight, Mark, Brian Knight five of six. I'd saying it wasn't Brian McKnight because we'd have to start back at one if it was. Hell. You know, I've always questioned the math of that song or the puzzle of that song. Let
me just go through it real quick. Since you bring it up, Mark, I don't know if I brought it up or you brought up but one? Who was it? Uh? Uh? One? You're like a dream come You're like a dream come true too. I want to be with you. Three girl, like girl. It's playing to see that you're the only one for me. Four repeat steps one, two, three, five, make you fall in love with me. You never get to the five if you repeat three. Mark, that's true.
You know I never thought about it that deeply, but I guess with your background sometimes maybe you have to sorry to here's this guy really into hip hop and analytical mind Only that would come from you thank you. I'm gonna send a strongly worded email to Brian McKnight. Anyway, the umpire Brian Knight five of six behind o Blate over,
Todd Tishner five of six behind home plate over. And then you have Chris Guccio and he's seven of nine over Jeremy Reacts six of eight over a long with Alfonso Marquez and Chris Siegal anyway, we could go on and on. There's some five of sevens like Doug Innings who have come up in the past. Any Daniel Bellino seven of ten, and when Moscoso seven of ten of gon over any sort of historical jibing corroborations with what's
going on this year. Yeah, this one's really good because Alfonso Marquez is the number one over umpire based on my chart, and he has he's got a run suppression or runs a loud number nine percent nine point three percent greater than an average umpire. So he's a one or nine point three and that's fairly significant. If you add ten percent runs to a nine total, you're going
with ten. And so if you have the game priced at nine and Marquez is in there, you can effectively one's very significant and I've always looked for him, and it's in the model that I that I have these umpires, but that that's that's the one that really bears out. He's over, and he's over in the chart guild. Yeah, so over historically and then six of eight, as we mentioned this year, behind home playoff gone over. And it is so important, by the way, for those wondering, like
where can you find umpires? Assignments States sites, States sites like stat Fox list which umpires are behind home played every day. Obviously the crew rotates on a day to day basis, but you can find out who's behind home plate. And I'm just taking a game that I bet on yesterday. I bet on the under in the Diamondbacks Giants game. It was under eight. It ended up four to three diamond Backs. Typical typical game mark where it's like I had no business losing. Then I had no business winning
than somehow I won. You know, it's just like you're like baseball happened to that bet. But the point was is that and I can't remember who was behind home plate last night in that game. That strike zone was a thimble. It was a thimble. But the one thing I gave him credit for was he was super consistent with it. He never strayed from it, so he wasn't
giving any of the pictures any borderline calls. And so the fact that we were still able to hit the under with that was a was a minor miracle yesterday in that game. And I yet, I think you you make a really good point um in in that you didn't know who the umpire was before the game. And unfortunately, like when we're handicapping, you know, I think you do it really early in the morning. I do it overnight. But that first game in the series, you're kind of
going in there blind. So you were required to make a total in that game, and you played an under. It was a good play actually, And UH for me, the first game of the series is really hard to play the totals on because I don't know who the umpire is at least overnight, and that's such a critical UH factor component in the game projections. So I've got a really lack of total before I play a total in the first first game of the series game, Yeah,
we were. We were was compulsory to do so in the in the pentathlon that we were doing so luckily got that one home. How about the unders. Let's go to under umps before we get off umpires again. These are from this year. Mark will tell us if any of these correct or any of these match historically. Quinn Walcott four or four, we're behind home plate this year. I've gone to the under again. We haven't broken this down based on ballpark, which is a missing element of this.
But Brian Blakeney four or four under Andy Fletcher, eight of nine under Will Little seven of eight under Ed Hitcock's that name has come up before six of seven under Oh wait, I'm getting getting another Brian Knight reading. Is this a glitch in this? Oh no, throwout what we said about Brian Knight, because I don't know which
is right anyway. Those are the big ones. Nate tomlins and six of eight um, Nestor Saha six of eight and Junior Valentine nine of twelve have gone under Zaro Diaz six of eight under Phil Couzy six of eight under Angel Hernandez nine of twelve under. Yeah, there's so there's a lot of variants, and that's what we're learning when we're going through these umpires. As far as you know, over under, because it's not just all about how the umpire calls on the zone. That's that's part of the
part of the handicap though. But as far as my I'll just you know, tell you who my thought are my top three under umpires are. I've got Eston Brook, Miller and Doug Ettings. Those are the three under Yeah, those are those are the three umpires that I think or if I if if they come up on the game and I like the under, I'm gonna jump on that. Doug gettings five of seven under. We didn't get to him. He's there. Yeah, yeah, he's number two. He's number two
on the chart. Gil. So from an under standpoint, so Doug Gettings to the under, and who do we say to the over? Alfonso Marquez? Alfonso Marquez? Yeah, okay, alright, so those are all widely available. Let's go to something that are they get a little tougher to find, and then we'll get to the super proprietary one. Let's talk about first five innings. A lot of people like to bet first fives obviously these days, and I used to keep track of these manually on my own. That was
a pain in the butt. I don't have any time to do that thankfully. These days, thankfully sites like odds Shark do so they update these I think once a week. These are the best money line records first five, so exactly what we did with the money line full game moments ago. This is just what terms of the first five, and I've updated these of the last five days manually based on how these clubs have done since these were
last updated. But for the best first five money line teams in baseball, the New York Metropolitans number one, you'd be up over thirteen units betting the Mets blindly on the first five this year, and that's without Jacob deGrom. Imagine their number one. Number two would be the Houston Astros. Houston Astros would have you up about twelve units betting
first five blindly this year. By the way, these teams have continued to be good since the last asked us, Since the last odd Shark I'm I'm updating the numbers since then. But the Mets three one and one first five their last five games, the Astros three and one their last four. A new third place team is the Yankees. The Yankees have taken over from the Twins, who were the number three team. Now it's the Yankees number three, because Yankees have gone two oh and two over the
last four. But the Yankees would have you up about eight plus units first five. So Mets Astros, Yankees. Nothing surprising there, right, Yeah, No, that that sounds pretty I mean that sounds pretty reasonable to me. I guess before the season we might have thought the Yankees was a little surprising maybe, but now we're so used to it. I don't know. Well, I wouldn't have bulls at you, right, No, everybody know, certainly not you? Who again it was one or no? What was the was the Yankees number? And
you you had it? And I think more like Mark prot I gasped, audible audibly. How cute? Now? Um? Okay, worst first five? We have a new worst first five, the Colorado Rockies, who have gone oh four and one. Remember there can be pushes oh four and one of their last five. They are the new worst first five team in baseball, nearly costing you twenty units little over
nineteen units down. If you've been betting the Rockies first five all year, and by the way, if you've been betting the Rockies first five blindly in every single game, you're probably doing something wrong. Uh, Tigers, I want to find that guy. Yeah, I really want to bet the Rockies first five, especially at home, um or maybe let's just say especially on the road when they're beats. Yeah, the Tigers used to be the worst first five. There now the second worst first five because they've gone two
and three in their last first five. Uh, Tigers are the second worst. Gnats are the third worst because the Gnats have lost four in a row now their last four on the first five, and the Reds are the fourth worst. So yeah, not surprising. Any of the first fives are not surprising at all. Now, Yeah, you know the Reds are somewhat interesting because that's utter green Londolo,
even Ashcraft to a certain extent. I mean, these you don't have just and Castillo of course he was Oh yeah, I played the Rais the other day on Friday, and man and he he pitched up against McClanahan, and I thought Castillo was the better pitcher in that game. So you would think that that Reds like they'd win more five inning. Best they've got there, they're starting pitching is not awful, you know. Yeah, no, I agree, But do
you do you get the sense? So we just went through first five, and earlier we did full game and full game. There's obviously much many more surprises bullpens are involved. Do you find yourself betting like this has always always been the thing the last four years? Like when you talk to baseball betters, right, a lot of people very casually answered like, oh, that's why I only bet first five because you know, it takes the bullpens out of it. I don't know. Man, for me, by the way, the
straddles bigger. We should point that out. Yeah, yeah, that's a great point. Yeah, we should point that out. And and also just for me, just anecdotally, I don't bet baseball nearly as much as I used to, but it never really worked out that way for me despite all the bullpens. You know, misshoo Gas does it for you? You find yourself betting first five more or just not as much or just the same amount as you always used to, which is not a lot. I do it infrequently,
which is more than I used to. I used to never do it. I think that like for me, I think part of the bullpen handicapping is is interesting to me and I love doing it. It's a lot of work, but I think that if you can handicap the game from the back to the front. And I think that for next year, I am getting good enough with bringing in data and Python programming that I think I can do this. It's just have a separate four innings and that's the last part of the game. I know Todd
does a lot of that, and it's really there. It's an interesting listen when I wish and never gets on your show and talks about, you know how he plays the second half of the game. But I think that you have to split it up into into half, so the first five and the and the last the last four. But I think that you made such a good point. It's it's it might be the most important thing on why not to bet the five the first five inning
lines until the Jews starts to come down. I don't think it's as good of a bet as as a full game, just because of that fact. I mean, over the course of it, if you're gonna put out you know s games over the course of the season, that adds up that that juice. So I think that just for for that main reason, it's probably good if you if you can handicap the back part of the game. To play the full game and then the other thing.
The other thing too, And I think this is a good point, and I'm sorry to jump in, but at quick, um, you know when you're when you're doing overnight, when you're sending out plays overnight, I try to send him out like five pm Pacific time, you don't have five inning lines. So by the time it gets to having a five inning line, like you look at a game like like
the Rays, and I put that out. I lost the game, but I put it out at minus one thirty eight, right, so by the time the morning came, it was up to minus one seventy eight, And so like, I wouldn't get that like the five inning inning lines a derivative of that full game at that point in time, which is early in the morning. So I wouldn't get that kind of line value overnight on that. So I think that's the juice. And then the fact that you can't
bet the five inning games early at least not yet. Um, I think that those are two points to unless you have a conviction on a starting pitcher and you hate the bullpen. And sometimes I'll do that, like I played Nola a couple of times, uh this year because the Philadelphia bullpen was such a mess, and uh, I think I see her away from him personally. You know, all great points. Uh, it ain't as you know, and it at is. Let's put it this way. It shouldn't be
as quick of an answer as some people making. Oh I just I just get rid of the bullpens and I play five. It's not quite that simple. Um okay, I mean there's there's pros and cons to both ways. Absolutely, and listen, you know, I also have to just throw this in just from a life perspective, because I don't think we ever talked about this because you're you're super into numbers. I'm super into it. You're you're I mean, you're immersed in it on a daily basis as as
you always have been. We never just take a step back and talk about just human being experiences betting some of these things in baseball, particularly like with all the summers where I just been betting baseball games and I just think about, like the game I bet last night, Mark, They asked the excuse me, the Diamondbacks and the Giants total that game last is a nationally game lasted four hours, right, and the biggest part of that of course, was the
bullpen right, and how many changes are made and how long that takes and how long the at bats were? And I just thought to myself afterwards, you know, I said this on the air this morning. My dad used to say this about crossword puzzles, and Sudoku's right used to say, it's a crossword puzzles. You learn English right when you do them, you you learn vocabulary. Sudoko, He's like, it's waste of time. You don't You don't really learn math, right. So for some reason I thought about that last night
when I was watching the baseball game. It's funny how your dad like enters your brain with random comments, because I was like, okay, I should have I should have had no business losing. Then I had no business winning, and then somehow I won. And in the end, even though I won, I was like, where did those four hours? Do I get those back? So from a real life perspective, there are some people listening that will actually just be in their heads. It will just be like, you know what, dude,
I just don't want to live through nine innings. I just don't want to. I don't want that experience. I just want to get out of it. Yeah, that's a really good point, and I would I wouldn't disagree with them because you know, they get the action and it's you know, arguable whether the full game is better or not, but there's if there's validity in that five inning game. But they definitely get part of their life back. And and it's it's weird because you know, we've been doing
this a long time. We're analytical. We were around a lot of analytical guys and they always say, well, you shouldn't watch the games because it takes it takes it all out of you. And it sure does, but you can't not watch the game. It's it's I can't at least, you know, Yeah, it's not how I'm wired. It's not how you're wired. I was bring up Dr Bob. Dr Bob works as as a sort of sign of you know, he wears it as a sign of a badge of honor. I should say that he doesn't watch, and I think
he watches more than he lets on. But I'd tell him all the time to go, Bob, I'm just not wired that way, like a can do a bet and just walk away like it doesn't work for me that way. So yes, like last night, if you had, you know, after the game, the first five would have barely hit on the under in the full game, barely hit on the under. Would I have rather have spent you know, done the first five of courts? Just a waste of time. So I get that from some people, And that's that's
the nature of baseball betting. By the way, the other side, boy, or some of the some defense really bad in baseball now, like the Giants defense is horrible and there's like no arms in the outfield. It's horrible to watch. Um, okay, that's some bad You had some bad defense yesterday. That's that's really frustrating to watch. That's all right, let's go to the final one. This is first innings. This is proprietary only hear this on on the Beating of Book
podcast or or perhaps on on a numbers game. People like Mark have databases where they can call it up as well. So this is just first thing. Is a lot of people like to bet, yes knows will run be scored on the first inning. There's all kinds of different first inning bets you can make. This is just a window into which pictures, which starting pictures have performed the best and the worst. Let's say the worst and the best first innings this year, just the first frame
in terms of opponent on base percentage. I just happen to use on base percentage, prefer that over say batting average, So minimum forty played appearances. Here's who I have, Mark, you'll tell me if this is what you got. The worst with an opponent five hundred on base percentage, Bryce Wilson, followed closely by Usay Cocoches Fight seven opponent on base percentage Spencer Watkins for sixty two, Jacob five, Glen Otto Jr. Forty two Believe he's on the hill tonight, Chris Bubbage
for thirty nine. Believe he's on the hill, Chris Booby, Mitch Keller for thirty two, and then Kyle Bradish and Freddy Peralta maybe a surprising name. Those guys have been awful first innings this year. To couch you Watkins auto boo, bitch, it's that's how you say it. Actually, you know it is. It's okay, it's correct, correct pronunciation of that. How to look it up the other day? Yeah, yeah, I don't know if he pronounces that the last part. It's just
like I did. But it's right. It might be boom bite, but what you're saying is it is at the y. Yeah, And so all those guys, I think that there's something to that too, you know. I think that you know, maybe it's maybe you need a little larger sample size, you know, to to look over the years and stuff. But that's I think that's a good way to attack it. I guess some guys just like they just can't get warmed up. And and you know that first inning is
always worse. But again it's something like this, The larger the sample, the better, absolutely. And and is this how I bet first innings? Or have Jason Weinarten best first innings? The answer, quite frankly is no, but it is an interesting thing to have for some. Let's go to the best. Who are the best in the first innings this year? Again? Minimum forty played appearances against Sonny Gray number one one eight six against Max Freed against These names will sound familiar.
Shane Bieber two oh three against first innings. Brandon Woodruff two oh five on base against Shane McClanahan, a ls A young favorite two oh six against first innings. Jose Quintana to ten, Maniah to thirteen, Quantrill to seventeen, and then Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Anderson, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Zach Gallan. Down the list, Justin Steele, Corban Burn smiles michaelis, so there you go. I mean, like some of those names
are are pretty understandable. Yeah. I think Cantana's interesting because he's you know, I thought he'd be out in the league by now, but he's kind of had a resurgence. I have him better than average actually in my ratings, which is a big step for for jose Q. And so to see him there is is is surprising. But sometimes you gotta tip your hat to a guy. He's he's been good this year. Gil, how funny does it? Does it make you smile or does it or does
it make you question your life? That you and I have have spent so much time that we like we still live with Martin Perez and jose Kintana, Like these guys have been these guys have been part of our lives for longer than we would even want to admit. They're still around pitching. We were joking at the end of you know, we just one of the funnier things that we were that we joke about, is random old
athletes coming to games. Like when the Diamondbacks late in their you know, when they had to get the save last night, we needed we needed to shut down inning. Were like, is JJ Potts available? You know, is Heath Bell? Yeah? So it's baseball players are funny, man. They have their heyday and then sometimes as we're seeing with you brought up Dallas kikel earlier this morning, they just fall off a cliff man. Um, that's basically did well with with
Derek Low. I mean that was that was just epic, an epic run betting against Derek when he was when he was finishing off his career. Man. You know, but personally, Gil, I smile because I love handicapping baseball. I love living kind of like your life is defined somewhere. Because I think about Jose Cantana pitching, you know, for the Cubs, and I think, well, guys, yeah, and uh, I for one, maybe I'm going to start a movement here. I want to see start handicapping baseball again. Gil, I loved it
when you handicapped baseball. I listen, I have I had the bandwidth, I probably would, but it's like, well, first of all, I was doing two shows for two years. There was no chance would I ever get back into right I think? So, Like, I mean, we're doing this pentathlon again. Nice idea at at Visa to do like five games in four days, compulsory right, totally yesterday favorite and underdog today? Um what do we have run line
tomorrow proper on Thursday to round it out? And it's just interesting to be forced into that immersion again for a week and already after one day, I'm like, oh, yeah, I forgot about this ship, you know, like really, yeah, yeah. The narrowing down process is grueling sometimes, like you're you're trying to pick an underdog today like that, I still still haven't played take minutes to kind of narrow it down. It does? It does. That's a great It's said, that's
twenty to thirty minutes alone. If you're doing it right, right, it's like you gotta think, you gotta think it through, like okay, well yes, so first of all, by the way, since we're doing a contest, that's an extra layer, like right, because you're incentivized to take even bigger dogs, like would I bet the Reds at this ridiculous price? You know, would I would I take a shot at the Diamondbacks
against Logan Web at this ridiculous price. Uh No, even though contest strategy probably dictates that I should, But it's like, no, I can't do that. Then you have to go to the shorter dogs, right, and you're like trying to figure out, well, you know, the Reds are a nice little price against the Dodgers, who Mitch, uh, the Astros don't have your don But do I trust the angel? I mean a
whole bunch of it goes on forever, man goes on forever. Yeah, and then and then you you get the remorse if you have to narrow it down, you have to you narrow it down to the one and the one that you didn't play. That's brutal. How many times has that happened in your baseball betting career? Good lord, you know exactly, Mark. I appreciate it. Man. Uh, Let's do Q three in a couple of months. How about that sounds great? Gal, My pleasure as always, Mark Borcherd. Looking before you go
at base winner base winner dot com. Tell people where they can find all your stuff. Yeah, guys at space winner dot com. And I send that an overnight chart with all of my good numbers, the key numbers for the components of each game, and it goes out overnight. And then I'm also on a show, the bet U s MLB Show that's live at nine Pacific times. So what's cool about that show is if you have a question on any game, just just ask it in the
chat room and and I'll answer it for you. So I really enjoyed the question and answer part of the of that of that show personally, the beautiful thing. Mark, We appreciate it, man, and we'll talk soon. Sounds good, Gil, thanks a lot, the great Mark forted everybody. It's Gil Alexander. Thanks so much for listening. Q t Q two rather MLB derivative show. Hope it informs some winning bets moving forward. Thanks for listening. Yeah, check it out now, no doubt. Yeah,