Check it down, Man, Down Man, Thursday morning, January two. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod live from the d Our home for the Megapod. Each and every week it is wild Card weekend. It is the playoffs.
Gill Alexander pumped to be here. Mikey Palm, the vice president Operations and Circuit Sports alongside here at the d Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, b A. And our rotating guests first return guests unless we consider Parlay, who like did one and a half our first returning guests of the year. We do. The all Stars in the playoffs is Drew Densick from the Deep Dive and at the Edge podcast. How are you doing, Drew? I'm
doing terrifically well. Very excited for this playoff field. Um, I'm not as excited as a guy who runs a sports book like Mike, because these lines, these lines look tight, and I got a funny feeling. You're doing a pretty decent handle with some two action this week. But interested to hear your takes. Well, let's start with Mikey, if you could the final thing on your contest, both Circle millions and survivor what a year was for both of those. Yeah,
we can start with the millions. And you know, it was interesting because two gentlemen, each with two entries, were one, two, three, four going into the last week, and they chose opposite approaches. Hannibal Barka, who had had the lead and was in first and third and had been going same picks, right, identical cards all the way along, took identical cards the last week and did not did not do well derbify. Tony Gordon, who was in second and fourth, chose to
go appo. He picked his five games and went Apple and did the worst he could do three and two and two and three and still still one and still one. So I don't want to kill anybody, because I'm sure Hannibal Barker did a lot better than I did, and I'm sure he's a wonderful person, But like has anybody talked him afterwards about it and said, why did you do it? That? Isn't that why you have two entries?
So I think that all these guys are going to be here tomorrow night in the ballroom at the d when we give out the checks and actually pay them and do interviews and i'm i'm I'm going to get a chance to interview all the million dollar winners on stage,
and I want to talk to Hannibal Barkett. I know, PSI was pretty rough with him on Twitter about well not you know, but he's he's right, He's right, and you know because that's why you have two entries, right if you especially if you played it same way for seventeen weeks and then U The interesting thing is the mad Russian goes five and oh the last week, and he actually tied derby five. It went to the tiebreaker.
They both went sixty three and twenty seven. The first tiebreaker was how many winning weeks out of eighteen did you have derb if I had seventeen out of eighteen and and and mad Russian had fourteen, So he won. That's the only position. There's the tiebreaker, right, Everything else
just share if you tie from the spot. One follow up question on Hannibal market, did either of the two entries finishing the money so no, he finished third at sixty two, he finished a half game back at sixty seven and one for two seventy five, and then he had another entry um that got in the top ten as or all or something like that got money as he got over three hundred thousand. Hannibal Mark Yeah yeah, right, okay, and then derb if I got one million and then
fifty thousand. His other entry that went two in three fell down a bit, but it is amazing and that that's this side of it. The Quarterly. The quarterly winner went twenty two and three to get singularly get the seventy. You guys happy that you did the quarterlies this year for Booby as well? The Booby I think that was the best edition was doing the quarterly Booby Prize. Yeah. Absolutely, But if you had to bed, even if you were
you had to make a decision. Let's say two weeks into the quarter you're you know, two and eight, but you're still like in the Hunt for the Top fifty, do you go for right? It forces you. But Joe is my dear friend. But I even said I had him on a numbers game. I said him because he said he goes. You know, I did the I got one in four the first week of the quarterly. That
was trying to do well. But then once I had the one in four, I tried to do bad and I went oh and five oh and five, oh one and fourth then and I'm like, how do you try to do bad if you could if they picked the opposite of their picks, But then if you're that I mean, I understand, I love I love that he won, But it's like, then don't you have to have some kind of regret that if you were that good at being bad,
you could have been bye bye? It follows that you could have been that good being good, right, So yeah, but he just had a bad week, Gilly. So once he had that bad week, he he he targeted the other side. I mean, he was still trying to do he was trying to pick winners both ways. He was still using this process. Now unless you think you can still win the big deal, the guy Jiggy Jack, that was the clear winner of the Booby Prize for the season.
They had him on following the Money this Morning, Minchon and Maddie. It's interesting he didn't decide to go for the bottom until after week seven. He started out, he started out three and two, then he had a two and three, and then in week seven he went oh in five and decided to go oppo his picks. In the week A, the extually went three and two, but then he in on a run of eight, eight and thirty seven over the next week. But has anybody figured out if he had gone thirty seven? And what do
you have made the top fifty? Have made the top fifty, because that's what I would say, No, in the top fifty. Yeah, the Booby Prize was was like being seventh, right, it was a hundred thousand and something like that. It's so hard to get in the top fifty once you have a bad weekly that what did you end up? Todd In you ended up with a one unforce I ended up fifty and forty West West and too far out of the money, right, and then West was telling me, he goes, we we feel like we did everything right.
PAULI Howard finished one game out of the money. They finished like tied for fifty eight or whatever it was. Though you need tremendous luck. Does this make sense from a game theory standpoint? Like there's two aspects. You want winning picks, but you also want to be differentiated from the field, right, And if you are winning picks are also sort of consensus or at least kind of top you know, just generally broadly picked going APO would give
you not very likely unlikely picked and also potentially losing. Right, So there is you know, if you are picking kind of you know, if in general you're with the with the majority on your winning quote unquote, your high plus TV picks and you go apo those, you should be in the minority with your losing picksures she would have a better chance at getting a Booby prize than landing in the winning and all right, and all of that assumes you have the skill level right two to to
to like be able to manipulate that to do well or to do poorly. Right, sure if I'm understanding, because speaking as the guy who won the a t S on this year podcast for the regular season, thank you very much. I just want to say that if I tried to get a five and oh I'm equally like Drew, I could try and get a three and two and I could not try and get a three and two.
And I could try and get it two and three and I could not try and get like I Still people who are are tanking are still using the games they picked. Just get an opposite team. Right, here's a good example, Like you got to get hot either way,
you got to get hot. Either way. Yeah. Yeah, But but if you're going for the win and there is an easy pick on the board because quarterbacks scratched and you have seven points of wind value contest versus closing market, when you're putting your picks in outside going opo that no one is picking that you are going to only people going for that are the people going for the Booby prize. You're in a very small pool of people
who are getting your likely losers. So you can juice your you can juice your pot losing more easily than you can um differential yourself winning. But remember Gregor Richard Baker talked about this last year, um saying in the last five weeks they would go and play the opposite of the state a line moves because they knew that because they needed they had to make up games and
the lines. Well, obvious example was the Vikings right with Cousins, and we had the most people ever picked the Packers off the six and a half point difference in the contest to the closing line people. You would you would have taken the Vikings that week if you're trying to make up ground. Yeah, that's a gift if you take trying to go for the good booby price because you were you were among ten people that pick the Vikings millions is going to be the exact same next year, right,
there's no charge. Now, I don't think there'll be any changes. Survivor maybe I don't know. And survivor, we had five winners. Five I mean those that came out of the Sunday after Christmas. They survived the last two weeks and so
one point two million. Three of the five got the bonus for having used to one of the last year Super Bowl teams, either the Chiefs of the Bucks the last we did anyone do a spincter check on the on the two guys with the Kansas City when I was when down to put it in the Chiefs are gonna lose. I I was with one of them, right, because he was with Derek and I on Saturday watching the game. Remember, he did not only not hedge, he asked for an alternate line chief minus twenty and a
half plus two forty and he bet it. I mean, what do you even like? What do you even say to that? Like? Good for you? Because he said, I don't know what you're doing. But all right, he did not believe that he the hedgean was was bad juju against your pick. He had saved Kansas City all year for that spot. Bad Juju was very scientific. Now here's what we do know. But we only know what they bet with us, right, But we know he didn't. We know the other guy that had Kansas City made a
money line bet on the Broncos with us. We don't know what the guy with the Buccaneers did because he may have hedged somewhere else, but he didn't do anything with us. We know that, um, the player, the player that had the Wolfdie guy made a significant hedge both on the Giants plus the points and the Giants money line.
Giants shouldn't all five of those? I mean, this was not like the Joe Peter came on the show with twenty eight survivors left and talked about how is a Wall Street guy, how he wanted to manipulate it so we lose equity week after week after week. That's a little more complicated. That's different. It's multi leveled. This is the last week of the season. They all had five big favorites. Isn't the play for all of them? Just
the underdog plus the points? End of story? That would have been worked out perfect with the Broncos, right, I mean, knew had the biggest scoop of all. But then on Sunday they did bet the money line parley of their opponents teams, right, yes, which was what Peter was doing as well. Because they were already in the house with the with the Chiefs, so they knew they were getting a share line. It was a lot easier to figure
that out right. The math on that they got Lucky though, because they didn't know before the season started that the Chiefs were going to be on Saturday. They know, they had no idea, but what a great break it was for them that they got the game on Saturday. Did they know Drew luck decided to be a regular quarterback Saturday? Because I'm sure they was. I'm sure they were getting a little bit nervous by the way that shoulder throw was unbelievably bad. When, oh my god, Todd, I thought
the key though, was the roughing the punter. I thought the crowd had already turned on Drew Lock after the horrific first two drives, and the crowd was just the roughing the punter changed the whole game. It got the crowd back into the game, and then I just felt that was good. I said, that's probably the putter is gonna cost you one point five three million night, But they get the whole game? Was that one play? Right? What chances you have gone for two to go up
nine and that spot and a million? Never in a million years. But let me ask you, because what was the guy doing? What was the guy doing when they were driving down there? Were you with him watching? He was? Was he losing his money? At halftime? I moved a little further away. Yeah, you can't. It's because I wanted to. I just you know, I was reacting. Was he freak? He was frustrated. It was very frun He was very frustrated that Lock was playing so well. That was what
he was most frustrated with. He said, where if you could do an in game seven? He watched, He watched every time we posted the end game the endgame numbers. But you know he wasn't gonna bite. That was that was his thing. That was his things. Yeah, what was the best price he could have gotten? H Actually when the when Denver was driving um, when Denver was driving there before that fumble, they actually they actually were one and a half point favorite in that spot. That was
the worst of it, right, that was the worst. That was the worst of it. Think think of I mean, but now that we have like some but he after after the Chiefs went out ahead in the game, he he actually had the number back up to where he could have got off the twenty and a half, right, because then I think the number was like eighteen or nineteen and a half at that point. Yeah, to see a question, what if somebody had Indianapolis Colt. Nobody had
them because they had all been used off. Can you imagine if somebody had just think about that, you would have lost your mind because they totally would have been Yes, they totally. Yeah. Well if you just cover yourself with the money line Jags with the tie in uh in the in the Chargers game. Yeah, of course you're covering. Everyone knows that cover Jagson's eyes the way to go. It's easy. Oh my god. They bet that tie down here. They bet the tie in that game down to eleven
and a half to one. Wow. The tie start was a nine figure It was a nine figure sports book um exposure for us and part of that for us. How much was it for you guys? It would say high six, high high six. That's just one place. Yeah, no, I get it. So they all start out a hundred seventy to one. Basically in that range, Tie is somewhere between a hundred one. After the Colts lost, we moved it down to thirty five to one because it came into play and they bet it down to eleven and
a half. And you know what, the people that were doing the Jags money line with the tie Parlay's right, that's a correlated parlay, but they were doing had one for over I believe. But that shouldn't have been you know, it's a sports book. Yeah, there's too much cause and effect there. And by the way, I will go to my grave. I don't want to do like thirty minutes on this because we've done enough on radio about it, but I will go to my grave thinking with the
Raiders that they slowed that pace down. It didn't look like there was any urgency at all. And in the end, whether Brandon's Daily called the time out or not, I think the Raiders were just gonna do whatever the result of that play was. If they got two yards, I'm not so sure they kicked the field goal at the end Let's say, by the way, what about Syrianni. Nobody even said one thing about the risk of kicking a
field goal there. I still don't understand why you kick a field goal there, because when you want to, I don't care if they were thinking about that at all. Here's a crazy no, here's a crazy question for you about the bookmaking side of things. And the nine figure liability that I brought up. Let's assume that that's right. Let's hundred million dollars was a stick for the big boys in the East Coast on this That's two weeks of ad revenue. But they have been spending this fall
on NFL weekends. They're spending fifty million a weekend advertising. Okay, So the liability is is two weekends of running ads. Okay. If that's a national story, if it's like, oh my god, the sports books lost a hundred million dollars on this one, you know, doesn't that entice? Like everybody reads it and they're like, well, I gotta get involved in this. Books are making errors. I mean, like, is it even that big of a deal, that bad of a thing being
on NFL games? True? Is there anybody left who's not betting on NFL games in the world. I saw you saw what they were given bonuses in New York. Apparently there's apparently there's a there's there's customer acquisitions. They're just trying to each other. They're just trying to steal each other's customers. But I don't think there's anybody else who doesn't know they're gonna have a sports book already. Is
it getting ridiculous? There's a commercial every seconds alright. How they're working on that at the American Gaming Association just had a big conference call yesterday about that, just like the fantasy DFS thing when it started. You know that the objection from the research um to the sports advertising not necessarily the frequency of it, but the exposure to to miners is the bigger objects I would imagine. So
from the research, here's another objection. If the girl from the Lily commercials on one more time, I'm going to kill myself. She's a world does the commercial have to be it's on more than the than the gambling commercials. So it's like if while you're there, Mikey, when you're at the gaming place by the way, throwing the lily, Lily can't be on more than one every three commercials because she's driving me crazy. They're Toody, I gotta step
in here because Mike's gotta go. We gotta start with this soap todd Our records for the regular season were Jilly Ice with the regular season victory at twenty eight and twenty six after a nice two and one, a nice two in one week. He got hot late in the season. His beloved organization, the Woof, he's covered for him. He did have the Chargers in the Sunday nighter, and then he did get quite fortunate in that Niners game. Um, Mikey went, oh, I needed it too. I was with you.
I was very fortunate too. I did either of us think that Jimmy g was going eight nine yards. I didn't think I was doing it, and I needed him. Mikey went, oh, in three h with the Philadelphia Eagles that didn't really decide to play, very unfortunate in the Rams Niners game that we just talked about, and the Chiefs minus ten, which we also talked about. So Mikey go and one. I went one and two and finished at twenty two and thirty two. In the teaser category,
which is the ever more important category, went. Of course, of course, I actually lost my teaser to go to a leven in seven. Mikey one is teaser and one of the most fortunate teaser wins in the history of teaser wins when the Atlanta Falcons and and the Iceman on fourth and ten somehow punched it in and he got the Atlanta plus ten and a half. So he goes ten seven and one on teasers. Gilly also with a win at nine eight and one in teasers. So
now we continue the records. We continue the records. Yes, we continue with all the records. That's right. So the questions are we doing three picks and a teaser again this week? A lot of game three to three picks in a teaser because there's six games drew your first best bet, sir sider total. Oh Jesus, this card is so tough. I'm gonna go with the side. I'm gonna take the l a rams here. Um, I've I don't
have a strong angle. I just know that there's only one chance I will have in my life to fade Cliff Kingsbury in his first ever playoff game and maybe his only ever playoff game. I do not believe even the pieces around Kyler Murray. I do not believe in the coaching. Uh really on both sides of the ball. I knows advance Joseph has made, you know, has made have come He's come up with a couple of pretty
solid game plans this season. Um. But overall against this Rams team that has so many players available in the past catching uh and uh, you know Stafford at home relatively comfortable confines there, I do think the Rams are gonna be able to put up thirty points in this one. Uh. And I don't love the ability for Kyler Murray to play comeback mode if it comes to that. I'm not buying the impact that J. J. Watt is gonna be able to make after having missed the last ten plus
ish weeks. Uh. And realistically, this is the only game that I see across the board that I think is lined like it's going to be a competitive contest. But I have a long tail to the favorite covering with margin, So I'll say Rams minus four unless you're gonna give me consensus three and a half. I know it's three and a half, only had a couple of spots, but yeah for Aaron Shots, the founder of Football Outsiders, is
on the numbers game this morning. That is the one favorite he likes as well, giving the points the only favorite he liked. The only favorite he likes giving the points. Yeah, uh, Mikey number one. You know, I like the under in the very first game on Saturday, the Raiders in the Bengals, Uh, it's going to be well. One is whether it's going to be cold to Zach, Taylor played this game very conservatively. When they were out here at a legion that game.
I kept telling people, is they're running clock in this game, because it never seemed like the clock stopped. And and remember with five minutes to go, the score was in favorite the Bengals. It's misleading what happened at the end with the car turnovers and that, um, we're seeing money coming on the Raiders. Maybe it's a little Nevada bias here or West Coast bias with the Raiders on this game. But I think this number is too high. I think, you know, the Bengals haven't been able to win in
the playoffs. They have a home game here. I think Taylor of plays it just as conservatively as he did the first game against the Raiders. I really like the first half under twenty four and a half more, but we don't have that option on this show. I'll take under forty eight and a half under. We're giving what a mench Ye, Well, I'm only doing I'm only being a mench because I like the same pick self surveying mench. Well, Mikey,
I was trying to be honest. I think credit where I deserve credit is that your number one, that is my number one. Number one is also under forty nine. And Cincinnati against Vegas, Mikey made a lot of points. Another thing that basically, uh you know, bears out what mike he was saying was there were five drives in this game over five minutes, and there was a couple of six minute drives. It was a lot of mixing left,
mixing right, mixing left, mixing right. There was just tons and tons of running and it was just a grinder game. It was a total grinder game. And like Mikey said, it got away at the end for final I just like it. I think also, Cincinnati is just gonna line up and it's gonna be cold too. It's gonna be
like thirty degrees. Uh you know that that that cold weather doesn't really you know play for a real high scoring game in my opinion, So I I don't see any reason why Cincinnati won't just line up and try to push them all over the place like they did in the first game. So I'm going under forty nine Cincinnati Vegas. I had Eric Eager on this morning from Pro Football Focused Total nerd Fest on the numbers game this morning and Eric Eager dr Eager. He cited some
Derek car stat were like under like freezing conditions. He's just got awful. So throw that into the mix of the Raiders in the Bengals. I didn't know they kept those kind of stats. My number one pick, Todd, brace yourself. The Pittsburgh Steelers, get out of you're off. You're kicked off. You know what. You're kicked off the mega pond this year and this is like the target for half of next season. You're also kicked off, So you can't just be kicked off. You're out, by the way, Thank you
guys for doing the megapon last week. Thank you both very much. Uh Schwab Frank Schwab was a guest. He's terrific. I had him on prime time or we had him on prime time last night. Thanked him as well for doing and he was like, yeah, maybe next time when you're on week I could be on. I was like, sure, absolutely, Frank. Frank texted me at ten thirty last Thursday night and said, I hope you weren't upset. I disagreed with your pick
of the chiefs. I said, of course not. It makes for it makes for a better megapod if we I mean, if we all agree, it sucks. He and I'm the first one to say, Mike these things, but he was excellent um on the hosting of the megapod last week. Mikey, we have to give you a tip of the hat thing. Thank I did it, John Fox like job he did? He really did. Didn't turn He didn't turn over the ball. He was a game manager and he did not turn
the ball over. We got the points we were supposed to get and we got out with the nineteen sixteen victory. Did he go did he go on in an infective, rant laced rant about analytics or ran It was a nice meat sandwich of football analysis. I think it. What was it about forty three minutes, Todd, I mean it was there was some Frank Schwab said to me he said, Thank god I didn't go in three. I was so nervous.
They weren't gonna let they weren't gonna let Mike. You just throw the ball all over the field, he said, Duncan, I took Pittsburgh plus thirteen. I know I'm only getting twelve and a half here now, I'm still taking it. Uh. Look, I know they suck football outsiders, as it was their twenty fourth ranked team dv O A. I'm still trying. I think you deserve the Actually, Todd is so nice today.
I'm still trying to figure out how that big bend passed in the in the overtime, that fourth down play got to Ray Ray McLeod I have It's the most amazing Remember that. Remember that Kauai Leonard shot against the Sixers and games bounced off the front and then off the back. But even before it bounced off the rim three or four times. If you watch that replay, it's like the ball change direction in midio. I have no idea how that happened. That was that Ray Ray McCloud pass.
I'm like, how did it looked like it was gonna land two yards in front of bed? Is like and somehow like it got to his ankles, and why is he even open? Unfortunately, ridiculous, simple pass. Here's the thing, the reason I took Pittsburgh ultimately is one I'm not as high on Kansas City as people. Although Tyreek did show up at practice yesterday, he was banged up with the heel um. But my thing is I subscribe to the Christie and Andrews theory about the Steelers, which is,
and he's a lifelong Steelers fan. Two, which is, say what you will about the Steelers, and there's a lot of negative to be said, but they do have one thing, maybe as good or better than any other team, which is they have three or four unbelievable players on defense. T J. Watt, Minka Fitzpatrick, Cameron Hayward will throw Joe Hayden in as well, and there's something about just their presence that is enough to disrupt what the other team is doing in a very impactful way. And for me,
that's enough to take the thirteen points. I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers drew number two. Oh boy, I'm gonna go back to the Raiders game. I'm gonna take the dog here, even at five and a half I think it's still value. I make fair price in this one four and a half assuming you have a fully healthy Joe Burrow, and I'm not entirely convinced you will. UM. There is a specific angle here against the offense for the Cincinnati Bengals
looking as good as the market currently has priced them. UH. In general, they do well against defenses that are blitz happy, defenses that are aggressive, UH, and not necessarily against defenses that basically just put a ton of guys out in coverage. UH. And the Gus Bradley defense is somewhat predictable. I think we saw in the first matchup. It did limit Joe Burrow's ability to really kind of get going through the air, and I would expect similar output here, particularly given that
this is an outdoor contest. Tee Higgins dealing with an injury as well. I think it's going quietly and talked about UM. And I know that Raiders defense was on the field a heck of a lot Sunday night, but that strush is absolutely violent. UH. And they're going up against a delightful matchup with the Cleveland past ob see Cincinnati passed pro. That's a UM, you know, bottom half of the league, maybe even bottom five, depending on whose rankings you're looking at. So, um, I think Burrow is
gonna be under Darreuss here. I think the fact that he's not, you know, so much of his success, really I feel like has come. Um when you know he's making the hot read, he's uh, he's evaluating the blitz pre snap uh. And he's you know, he's utterly dissecting the defense because there's just too many good athletes in that among his positional players that can create separation in those you know, in those bang bang moments. Uh. And that's just hasn't ever really worked against the Raiders. You
need to be more like a Pat Mahomes. You need to thrive out of structure to really put up points on this defense. And I don't see Burrow being able to do that. So I think this is a closely contested contest. I agree with both of your guys under plays. Uh. And I'll grab the Raiders here expecting them to keep it close. Um. Only I bet this at six earlier this week. Uh. And I had a conversation last night where I pooh poohed the six and five and a half being worth much. I was like, Oh no, don't
worry about it. If I have, and it's not a huge deal. And then I was thinking, the Raiders have had some unbelievable overtime karma this season, unbelievable. And if they somehow, if the Bengals somehow score a touchdown to win in overtime and this land six, I'll be pretty disappointed. But despite all that, I'll still I'll take the five and a half with with the Raiders. All right, Raiders, By the way, how great is this weekend of football? I cannot wait? Do you like the format? Three? Two
three one? Having having a show, having a show to do Monday night? Selfishly, yes, because we get a game. If I did not have a show, no, three, Yeah, three and three is the way to do it. You can't do the two three, I mean, come on, And I think, when do you guys anticipate opening all the markets, because we're not going to know the NFC man chips until then. So no. So that's so I figured this out this morning. I was doing some some thinking about
it on the way into work. I'm like, why did they end up with the Rams and the Cardinals on Monday Night? The reason isn't because that's the five four game, and so by that kickoff, by the end of the Sunday night games, they will know every matchup already perfectly for the Division Round, except for the winner of that game gets to play the you know whoever they get to play moving forward, so they will be able to You could open the NFC markets at five o'clock on
Sunday at the Cowboys game. They can announce all the schedule for the Division Round by the end of Sunday, so that in NFL I forgot the reading. So that's what also makes the Vegas Cincinnati games so interesting to me is because the Titans worst matchup next week, at least to me, is Cincinnati. That's the worst if the Raiders win that or if either the Patriots or let's say the Stealers one than the Titans like even with that,
But that's why that by is. So it's not only the by The biggest thing is you don't have to play a game, but it's also that you get the receding, you know, and so you could end up with an even more ridiculous matchup come to Vision Round. So um, all all very interesting. Your number two. I will give you a full disclosure. I wouldn't bet anything else other than what I gave you. Um, I want to take the Rams, but I just you know, Matt Stafford's never
won a big game. He's just it's just hard to get around the fact that the best victory of his career is over Hawaii and the Sugar Bowl. Um No, I mean it really, it's hard. That would be my next pick. Who could forget that. I'm gonna, I'm gonna. I'm gonna take a number I don't love, but I think this is a good matchup. I'll take the Bucks and lay the points just because, Look, the one thing you don't want to have against the Bucks is depending
on a running game. And I mean, if you think Jalen Hurts can drop back forty five times and beat you, okay, but I don't think so, because he can't run the ball on him. That's the one thing. They don't have a secondary They don't but you cannot run the ball on him, Hurts. We'll have to be good. I like Brady in the playoffs. I think this is the worst possible matchup for the Eagles, So I'll take the Bucks, though in life I would only tease them. I'll lay the points here on this show. By the way, I
agree with you about Stafford. I was thinking, exactly, I want to take the Rams. I feel like the Cardinals are fading over the last five six weeks. It's a different Cardinals team. They're falling apart, and I'm thinking, oh, yeah, let's take the Rams. But then in the back of my mind, I've got that Matthew Stafford in the back of my mind. There's something about that guy who's not to me, has never been a winner. Do you know
that he's do we agree? Like no player has more pressure on him this week than matt than Matthew Stafford does, because of no player has more pressure on him this weekend of any player on any team than Matthew Stafford. Because of the fact that the Golf Stafford trade. He's supposed to be the difference, right, He's supposed to be the whole difference with that franchise. And if they crap out on Monday night, I would argue second, I would
argue a clear second. Is Garoppolo Okay, yeah, yeah, But like even Wolfford, even Wolford one is first ever start for the Ramps, can't do it. That's right. Right. Um, I will say Stafford probably should have one playoff one. He should have beat the Cowboys when they picked up that flag. That was he should he should have beaten. You should have beaten Tony Romo's cowboys when they picked up that flag. Who could forget that? What was that?
The game with that? That was the game before the des brand It was it was a linebacker, a linebacker for the Cowboys. I can't remember who it was, and they threw a flag and then they decided, yeah, right, it was like that. That's right. Um, all right, Todd number two, my number two is going to be the under forty six in the Steeler game. Um, I just think the first on in the first game, Kansas City scored on almost every single possession. They just went right
down the field almost every single time. They were up twenty three to nothing. That happen, and the game still should not have gone should not have finished forty six. But there was like a fumble late that got an extra field goal, and that's why they ended up thirty six. That game should have gone under even with Kansas City scoring at will, and it was because Pittsburgh can't do anything. Now here's the thing. Gilly. I sort of agree with
it can't be this easy, right now. I here's the thing there, It's it can't be that easy that you could just look at the board and go. Kansas City, of course, is going to kill them. They always kill them. And that's why I think you actually have have you know something here, because we've seen this a million times when it's so obvious, when it's absolutely obvious right in your face, it never comes in. So I'm thinking, well, how can the Steelers even in a stay in this
game at all? It has to go under. I think Pittsburgh if they can figure a way to slow Kansity down just a little bit. I still don't think that Pittsburgh can score. I mean, look at the road games this year. They were down twenty nine to nothing against Minnesota. They were down a million to the Chargers and didn't deserve to be back in that game. There was like eight hundred games that the Steelers were down, like it
was Ohio State against Oregon State. It was ridiculous. And they they got back in some of those games very nice, but they're not good enough. And I just think that somehow, um maybe they can slow him down. Like you said, we we do have. Look, we have a couple of ensers down there that really know how to stop people if we really need to get a big stop in a big you know, a big time situation in that.
But that's more don in Hinesville when we get them yellow towels swinging and the people can't see you not. But now we're going down Arrow, I don't see it. I just don't see it. I'm just gonna help this final thirty one three under forty six, Thank you, thank you. Can I get an impression of what your reaction is going to be when the Chiefs are up and Tom linnelects to kick a field goal in the waning moment? No, no, no, when? When? When?
This is what? Well, this is what he does every year he's he'll be down nine with four minutes to go and one time out or none left, and he'll punt on fourth and twelve. He does this at least once, he does that, at least once a year. Oh, he has to keep it in the On the other hand, on the other hand, maybe his finest coaching job in history. Well, the year how about the year with no no Roethlisberger when he had duck Hodges. That's that's hard to argue
against that year, duck. So who's who's better than Mason Rudolph? By the way, and number number two for me a rare total for young Gil. You never played totals, never played totals. I think you all are playing the wrong game on the under Philadelphia Tampa Bay. For me, there's some weather involving. Yeah, forty six is what I'm saying right now. Or forty six and a half. What do you got, Todd? Forty six? Half half at each number? Alright, so Mike you make the call, O Tempily forty sixty
five and a half. I have half. We'll give you because I see forty six and a half still too. Go ahead, go ahead, Actually no, I don't see. You're right. It's forty is rule though where I'm looking, So we'll give Here's first of all, I agree with what Mikey's saying. Phil Tampa Bay strength is their run defense. Philadelphia strength is their running game, number one running team in football.
So it's strength against strength. Either Philadelphia is wildly unsuccessful against them, or they're unbelievably surprisingly successful and they actually do something. Either way that's great for my for my under because either the clock just churns or Philadelphia ain't scoring squat. And so here's the weather right now for Sunday at Tampa Bay, sixty eight degrees but eight percent precipitation and twenty three mile per hour winds which could get gusts of as high as thirty to thirty five.
So that's the case. I like my under forty six. I will I will venture into the total waters and go under forty six in that game. And I'm quite frankly, I'm surprised that that total hasn't come down more. But maybe it's the maybe it's the Tom Brady short passing thing where everybody says that it doesn't matter Tom Brady, he'll still score fifty against him. But I'm gonna bet against that number three, Drew. I love that. I love
what mine are greeted with nothing but silence. You guys are like that sounds like the dumbest thing I've ever It's not, it's just true. Go ahead, Sorry, No, I think I don't think you're honestly, you can probably still capture some line value on that, even though that's been good from forty nine and a half to forty six I bet you you flip that game on Sunday morning. You know, people get a taste of what's going on there, that could that could close and half UM last play,
I'll go with the total as well. I know it's gonna be cold. I know Josh Allen has circulation issues in his does not bother me in the slightest. I like the over forty four in the Buffalo New England matchup. I see these two defenses as both slightly overrated UM in general inflated a bit by the week schedules that
they played over the balance of the season. UH. And I think I look back at their UM second head to head and just the general aggressive nature that both coaches brought to that particular contest, I think speaks to
what you can expect from game planning from UH. You know, from a coaching standpoint here, would you believe that there were ten fourth downs attempted in that Buffalo New England game that Buffalo ended up winning, and you would say, well, Buffalo got the lucky bounce right, Buffalo converted all the high leverage plays. I remember, you know Josh Allen scrambling for touchdown for fourth down conversions, and you know, hitting
some lucky passes on fourth down. Well, amazingly, New England was four of six on fourth down, and that if I have five of six on fourth down in that game, which is something that I completely missed until I went back and rewatched, and ultimately I think you're um, you know, with the state is being relatively high, with both teams coming in with an aggressive approach, and and really likelihood that Buffalo is going to be able to get uh you know, to be able to sort of dictate this
pace of play and the game state here, New England is likely going to have to play some catch catch up. I don't think New England's gonna be able to kind of institute a keepaway, um you know, run the ball, uh you know, possession type of approach here. Um, I bet into this at forty three. It's up to forty four. My fair on this one is forty seven, even considering the cold weather. So I think over forty four is a fair look for the third play of the day.
Already had it written down same same, yeah. I I talked about this with them all yesterday. I think the number is suppressed a little bit because of that swirling win games at Orchard Park on Monday night, and that that relatively low score. But take a look at the second game, which was not great weather conditions, and there were no punts, right Andrew Drew reference to all the fourth now, no punts, no punts in the game. So I just think this number is too low. I think
it could played into the into the mid twenties. And I think it's actually a little maybe a little bit too many points here. I think this is a field goal game, a very entertaining game. Looking forward to it on Saturday evening. You guys aren't afraid. And I think Drew said it before, but I want to hear him say it one more time. You know, it's supposed to be colder than any cold game in the history of
cold games or something bullshit like that. What you're talking about, it's supposed to be really cold and cold and Buffalo. It is not cold and Minnesota. It's not negative ten. It's I'm sorry, sorry, it's gonna be balmy, my bed, Western and baldy and Buffalo. It's still gonna be damn cold. Mikey. They'll calm down. You're right, it's not gonna be seatt all against the vikings minus eight hundred. That's okay. Anyway, you're gonna be crying when it's cold and they're running
the ball every five seconds. I honestly think that actually helps the over And I don't think we're gonna see a lot of longfield goal attempts right Like, I think we've got the recipe now. It's not going to be a ball control kind of a game. They're gonna go for it on fourth down if you're on your opponent's forty yard line. Um, you know, I think that leads to more more scoring, more touchdowns generally, as opposed to what we saw in that win game, where it was
entirely ball control. But I don't hate it. It's not like I'm saying I like the under. I'm just saying I heard it's gonna be super damn cold. But anyways, my third okay, UM, here's the problem. I want to take Jimmy G to really do everybody. I know, that's a problem. I hate everybody like that. That's the problem. Everybody likes Jimmy G. They saw him go eighty nine yards to tie, which I still can't believe actually happened when I had niners plus to do an APPEND game.
I still can't believe he did it. Uh, I just I just can't get there, especially when everybody loving it. I just can't do it. So now I'm forced to just find something ing, and I'm gonna go with a little coach that some people call the greatest of all time, a guy named Bill Belichick. And here's why I want to go with Bill Belichick. He's won a couple of Super Bowls. He's not too bad in Super Bowls. Uh. He's a guy that now you put him in a playoffs situation and he he knows he doesn't have the
better team. He knows we all know he doesn't have the better team. But he's gonna get into his kitchen and cook up some you know, google losh for Mr for Mr Josh Allen. And I just think that four points in an NFL game with and I get Bill Belichick on my team, Um, it's a lot of points. You know. Granted, they were not the winner, they were not in that game. They did not deserve to be anywhere near the winner of that second game, I'll give you that. But the first game with the creative running
every single down situation was quite kind of interesting. But look, it's plus four. If we're down ten late, we get the back door touch down we finished, we lose, and everyone goes home happy. So I'll take the greatest coach in the history of the National Football League in the freezing cold, even though it's gonna be balmy, and I'll take the Pats plus four. Yeah. I'm not gonna add anything more to that other than when the lines first came out, I immediately grabbed New England plus four and
a half. It was all about Belichick figuring out a way to keep this close. That's my number three pick. I also bet the Niners, even though it's not one of my three official ones here. It troubles me tremendously that everybody loves each other, it really does. I got a note for you on that one. Yes, please, the Cowboys money is coming professional, the professional Cowboys money. And if you like the Niners, if you support Jimmy wait, wait, yeah,
wait until he throws this first interception in the first quarters. Wait, don't wait that long. Don't wait that long. I mean, here, here's a here's a genuine, genuine opinion question, because I've been asking another smart can I get can I interrupt Mike's got a gotta go, so I just want to get my teaser. Yeah, Buck's Patriots game. You want no part of. I want no part of I want no
part of Cardinals Rams because of Stafford concerns. Favorite that's gonna lose most likely any of them, any of them, any of them will go, any of them, but not not Cowboys. Okay, thank you, thank you, Mike Palm, everybody heading the odds on the worst Name show ever. Yeah, with them all show. Okay, what was the question, Drew?
I'm sorry. So there was a lot of bally Hood reporting discussion about Jimmy got the injection at halftime made his thumb feel a lot better and he played a lot better obviously in the second half and over UM and he said, I believe the quote was something along lines of not gonna wait for halftime this time and get the get the thumb shot pregame UM number one? Does that give you any more interest incentive in getting involved with San Francisco? First half, it doesn't wear off
at halftime. The he get worse as the game goes on, as the thumb starts, you know, the pain starts to creep. Because I believe I don't believe you're allowed to get two shots and maybe they to do this show every week and that's how painful it is for him. Um, that's an interesting question. I mean, my thing is this an Aaron again. Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders was on
this morning. He he did a ran on his Twitter where it was like, here's what the cow here's what the Niners are good at, and the one thing that they're glaringly bad at is deep down field passing by their opponents. So it's like it's all laid out there for Dallas, like this is how you beat them, Just heave it down field kind of thing. But I do worry about like Dack's chemistry with those whiteouts right now doesn't seem like there's much to it. His most successful
deep threat connection was with Gallup. Who's gone, Who's gone? By the way, do you guys look at Zeke Elliott and looks like he's running in slow motion? Yes, he just looks up of years now. But it's even worse than the last last part of the season. I feel like he's so slow, but that's running bikes. Man. Like we're just saying about the colds being knocked out of the playoffs, Like what's their window with Jonathan Taylor? Three years?
Four years? I mean, you don't know, these got the running backs just when they fall, they fall off a cliff Man, but a fresh Derrick Henry for the Titans. Baby, let's goose. I love man. I can't wait. I have taken so much incoming from my Titans futures wagers this year. Let's get it done. Let's get it done. I know, Drew, I know they're all telling me I'm crazy. Well, I you're chairing for the Steelers. You want the Steelers knock knock the Chiefs out. I don't know why? Why why
are they Why are they saying you're so crazy? Rabel is an excellent coach. You've got it good because it's not that bad. Because I'll tell you why. It's multi prone. Because analytic sites, let's take that have the Titans to this day, right, they have the Titans twentieth at Football Outsiders right, um, Pro Football Focus has an eighth. But
my whole thing was very clear. Wait, this is when Derrick Henry went down, When A. J. Brown went down, specifically, when Derrick Henry went down, I said, look, they have beaten the toughest teams in the league already that part of their schedules behind them. The easy part is coming. They will be able to remain afloat. The bet here for both the a f C and the Super Bowl is not for them to win the Super Bowl, right because none of us knows who actually ends up winning it.
But the point is that they remain afloat and get the number one seed. And if they get the number one seed, by the way along that arc, we'll get Julio Jones back, who by the way, hasn't meant shipped to them. We'll get a j Brown back who instantly made a huge difference if you remember in the second
half of that primetime game. Um. And then by the time they get to week eight teen, or if they get that by even more comfortably, they'll get the buy and they'll play in a divisional round two home games. If they win that round, then they'll get Derrick Henry back, who's the unicorn of all unicorns. That's the bet for them to get the number one seat. And at that point you're set up perfectly and you let the gods
determine what they determine. But that was the whole bet and that bet has come through, and so we will see now if it all works out. But it's set up perfectly. So wait, can you guys answer how modeling says that the Tennessee Titans are best team in the NFL. It's backwards looking and their last half of the season they didn't play anyone and they didn't do especially well not playing anyone, and so it's not you know, they didn't they beats when they got a j. Brown back,
But remember they lost to the Texans. Beat the Texans the second time. Didn't they lose to some other clunker in there? You know, So yeah, there's you know, it's it's not it's not a strong case. For sure, the Steelers beat them, you know, I mean like they they they've had Patriots got the better of them, buy a long shot. Obviously that game Week one stinker against the Cardinals is still in the sample, so you know that's dragging them. Um, But yeah, it's they beat Miami thirty
four to three, right that that that's the thing. They're there just to give you a point of comparison. So like the Packers that Football Outsiders are ninth. But the reason that their ninth is that they had the they had the Jordan's Love Game and the very first game of the season. If you look at their full season, so I'm not the way to d v o A, but the full season one. They had that first game
of the season where they got clocked by New Orleans. Right, was that the game where jamis through five touchdowns with less than a hundred fifty yards passing? Right? And then they had the Jordan Love Game, and then there was one other I think was there another Jordan? I don't know it was those two. But if you take those two games out, they go from ninth to third. So that's why it's those kind of things that make people go,
what do you mean ninth? By the way, you know what their number one team, one number one rated team that didn't make the postseason was, if I gave you ten guesses, Todd ten asked me again, Now, what's the question? What was? What was Football Outsiders number one ranked dvo A team for the year that did not make the postseason, that did not make the postseason. Yes, and I'll give you Chargers quicker. So it's so it's some kind of like quaker quicker, stop looking it up, quicker. Ul Colts
at Denver Vikings at Seattle. There it is. You got it on the fifth Seattle eight. I couldn't believe that. That's crazy. And let me just one second. You guys said that Tennessee didn't beat anybody at the end of the year. I'm not sure here if I'm reading this correct.
That okay, so real quickly, generally, their offensive efficiency from week eight through the through week seventeen, they only had They only had the one game against Miami where they were a little bit better than uh like neutral, and then the Houston Texans game they had a very solid offensive game, but mostly it was kind of turnover luck, fluky stuff that really supported them in a lot of
these games. Defensive stuff that's not necessarily predictive. Um, you know, I didn't have any receivers in a lot of those games, didn't they, Right, That's the thing. So I think I think the key really is though that like almost all of this stuff is backward looking and not and how you use it in a forward sense is a little
bit You have to be a little bit conscientious. Like if you take their ratings from week three and they'll they'll own this, like I think they had after three weeks, the Panthers were like the number one d b O A team, right, and so like you know, you gotta you gotta, um, you know, but you know, to that point in the season had performed really well in three games, so backward looking you were saying, yeah, this team has
done really well. So I'm saying that you can't. You have to take this stuff with a major grain of salt. If the if the Green Bay Packers are the ninth best team looking forward backward sideways north, south and east and west, that's wrong. The Green Bay Packers are not the ninth best team. Do you guys think that the ninth best team? No, but I'm just trying to explain why they are what they are. And yes, so can't the modeling fix that somehow? Not the way they do things,
I guess is the answer, because it's taking every play. No, yeah, that's so that's the difference between the So like Dr Bob for instance, right, he who who picks games on a week to week basis, he will manually extract player play data that is meaningless, right, So like if there's kneel downs, you know quickly, which is what I always say, right, Um, so yes, it's a little different. It's in coming upon
you to know exactly. That's why, that's why I always feel bad for Erin or I always feel bad and I love Eron he's my guy, but I always feel bad because people will immediately react to those numbers right without having two or three thoughts after that. They're like, oh, what are you talking about? This is bullshit? And so but I did say, he did say to me this morning.
He goes his worst case scenario, just in terms of a like feedback perspective and people going after him, is if the Titan, if the Patriots meet the Bills and then the Titans crushed the Patriots, He's got the Patriots four and the Titans twenty. So he will take a whole bunch of incoming for that if that happens. But I'm saying, doesn't he end up? That could very well
end Yes, but he wouldn't he acknowledge that. Like a perfect example, the Chiefs are winning twenty three nothing against the Steelers in that game, the Chiefs second half, it's just it's it's it's it's completely doesn't make any sense whatsoever, and it's not football, So just throw it the hell out but he does would he would he agree with that? Agree? Super smart? Yeah, he's saying there's nothing, so there's nothing
you could do. He just wants to say, look, all plays are all plays, and all plays are equal, and that's it, and that's the way we have to do it. Is that what he's basically saying. I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I don't think they're in the business of manu really extracting, right, They're just looking at the whole data set. Yeah, and they're they're trying to normalize everything with context of down and distance.
Like they're giving you a ton of credit for converting a third and one with four minutes to play in your own territory because that adds a lot of wind probability. If you convert that third and one, if you gain two yards, like like, it's you know, a two yards. But even if you're winning thirty five seven at that point, No, no, no, for sure, it's all it's relative to game state, etcetera. But if you if you're yeah, if you gain if you get two yards on our first and ten in
the first quarter means nothing. If you gain two yards on third and one in the fourth quarter with a in a one possession game in your own territory, that's huge. And so they're trying to kind of come up with a flat space where you know, everything everything that is conducted on the field has a relative way to kind of getting to the end result there, and it's you know, they're trying to also kind of wait it for opponents and take some of the lucky stuff out of there.
Like I wouldn't be surprised at all with the Titans. You know, you remember their Sunday night football win against the Rams where that was that was Yeah, but you know on paper box score, you're like, wow, you know, huge dog goes into l a. Uh, it gets this huge win. Like when are people going to finally buy it into the Titans? I would bet you anything. Their model probably downgraded the Titans, you know, analytically based on
that game because just because of the way it happened. Uh, And you know you break it down play by play, they were very lucky to win that game. They had a couple other thing like that as well over the balance of the season. Um, but then on you don't think that team, you don't think where would you put You just had to Drew Dinsit Goulash ratings. Yeah, they're like nine. They're like nine for me. All Right, I gotta step in, guys, because Drew and I gotta do
a little minutes of tennis. So we have to do our teasers teasers, and so I could ask you what your favorite teaser of the week is, or I could just ask you another way, which is Tampa and who I'm not taking Tampa? What do you think of them apples? I'm scared of Tampa. I think there's something wrong with the team. And I know everything you guys said was true, and the whole running and all that other nonsense. I agree with you in all of it. There's something wrong
with that football team. And I'm not sure what the deal is. You can't be losing to the Jets, and you can't get zero against the Saints and you can't just something is up. And even the Panthers game, they weren't really that impressive to me, so I'm staying away from I think Jalen Hurts has gotten a lot better also, but I understand why you can't take the Eagles. But okay, fine, I'm taking the Pats plus ten and I'm gonna take the Niners plus nine because I don't want to trust
Jimmy g on the spread. But if you're gonna give me the extra six, I'll take the Niners. So give me the Pats plus ten and the Niners plus nine. And I'm telling you, it looks like something's wrong with Tampa. This is not the Tampa Bay we've seen of old. Something is wrong. I don't know what it is. What's wrong? He like, huge deal? I okay, whatever it is, something
is up. I guess you know what, even if they even if they clean the clocks of the Eagles, who potentially just happy to be here, um potentially, you know, because Tampa Bay strengths match up exactly with the strengths of the Eagles. So this might not be a competitive game. And I don't lose, but don't lose faith. Stick with your pins, stick with your guns. Don't go and pick them, right, I won't. I won't know. You're you're business saying this is a bad matchup for the Eagles and Tampa. They
might just coast because of the bad matchup. But the truth is it could still be. There's a problem with the Buccaneers. And I really do think there's a problem with Buccaneers. I don't know what you guys think, but I think there's definitely a problem. Yeah. I think almost certainly there's gonna be some momentum to pick against them next week, be at the Rams, the Niners, the the Cowboys, whoever heads to Tampa. I think it's gonna be the hot side next week. All right, Drew, yours is Tampa
and Chiefs. I'll be the square, don't mind. I don't mind the general case here teasing you know, getting across seven I think is getting across tenants seven for a team like the Chiefs seems uh, that seems advantageous to me. Um.
I don't think that. I don't love the Chiefs to cover this number, um, but certainly um and the idea that the Steelers come back and either win or that this becomes a field goal type of game is pretty low likelihood in my By my opinion, I have I have the Steelers at about a fift chance to win, um and in the cases where they are losing, I have it over a touchdown by about seventy percent, So not quite a plus EV teaser leg. But there really
isn't a second leg this week. Yeah, I'm I'm looking for a dance partner for Tampa Bay, and I settled on the forty Niners. So Tampa Bay and the forty niners for me, because surely Todd they can cover the teaser leg right, just nine, it's not that much. As as long as Jimmy g us and throw. No, as long as Jimmy g doesn't go all Jimmy g on us and we and we get at least a couple of Dallas drops of interceptions, will be fine as long
as he gets his dabbit luck. You know, even though you took your taking your land, you're taking the points of the paths. You're not going to tease him out past You're not gonna tease him out to ten. Uh. Here's my thing. Scared, he's scared. I know why he's scared. Wait where I'm scared. No, it's scary. It's perfectly right.
If I took tim if I took New England with the points, but I also took San Francisco with the points, they just ended up as my number four, right, I took them both, but the But I'm scared of my paths. Pick two. I'm scared. But you know what's what's the more valuable six point move through the four in the seven or through the seven in the ten? Right, is what you're asking yourself basically, Yeah, and so went with the Niners. Just one with the Niners. Watch it now.
Of course the Patriots will come through, but the Niners. Well, all right, final two questions. Guys, Uh, six games? You're you're forced to bet five sides? What's the one you want? No part of? Drew Cowboys Niners to me is the most correctly priced game on the board. I mean, I don't want to bet any of these games, but I'll take the Steelers game. I don't want to bet the Steelers game because I I don't think anything's that easy.
It's not that easy, and I don't want to take the Steelers, but I just don't believe you can just go, oh, Kansas City. Of course that's gonna win for me. I think it's the Rams and the Cardinals. Like I just there's no DeAndre Hopkins, maybe J J. Watt. But would it shock me if the Cardinals put up a performance and Matthew Stafford had that one horrible mistake and the Cardinals showed up at all, not at all, and then would it shocked me if the Rams be them handily?
Not at all. I just want no part of that game none. It was between that and Philly Tampa Bay. By the way, Todd, to your point, even though I think Tampa Bay could roll them, because that I could see that being a slaughter or close game. Also. Uh. And then the final question. We usually do it with the big favorites every week, who's the most likely to lose out right? Let's do it this way this time every game but the Cowboys because it's the shortest line.
Who's the favorite you think is the most likely to lose out right? True? Cincinnati for me? Wow, Todd, I like your Raiders passion there, Drew. Well, see, here's the funny thing about that game, real quick, it's a it's a it's to me, it's a bimodal kind of deal. Either the Raiders win, you know, they're close, they hang, they win because they are a very resilient, tough team that has been through hell and back the season and still somehow in the playoffs. Or they or they get
their doors blown off one of two ways. The big sports thing. Yeah, sorry, I'm sorry. What I was gonna say is you have the big thing in sports going for you that nobody believes in US thing which is a which is a gigantic thing in sports. And the Raiders have had nobody believes in us for how many weeks? Now in our rowny they're playing with house money. That's there's no doubt about it. I mean, what a story, right,
incredible story, this team incredible. But they they played the tough by my numbers, they played the toughest schedule in the a f C. They had the most adversity there here with a with an interim coach for crying out loud. They did get a little quarterback luck, right, They got Nick Mullins followed by Drew Lock followed by Carson wentz Off of a week of COVID. So that one all four overtime games they played, they won all four overtime games.
Say no more? Yeah, okay, but that makes sense. So that so the one, So the big, big favorite most likely lose out right for you, Cincinnati and Todd, who did you say Buffalo? I said that Bills, just because I think maybe Belichick can you know, come up with some kind of potion to figure out how to pull off shock wood shock you right, Buffalo. Buffalo would be mine by definition. If I can't choose Dallas, Buffalo would
be mine as well. You guys are scaring me. I have the Bills in this in the high stakes Calcutta, so sweating. But what what kind of money are we talking here? High stakes? Like for the bills? Alright, I'm I'm, I'm out on a limb here in bills and rams um. But I was. I was happy with my beds um and uh, we'll see, We'll see how it plays out now, very very cool. Hopefully if the Bills lose, it's a blowoutlaws. That's all. Scoop scoop some something out of one of
the side pots there. All right, gentlemen, can't wait six games? Cannot wait for this weekend? What a great country that we have this sport. So let me ask you a question. Are you can you wait? Or can you not wait? What? You can't wait? Right? You just keep saying I can't wait? So I was going to that. Really, that was the second time I said it. Yes, I can't stop saying it. I said, Wai twice. You said it earlier in the show as well, my friend. Yeah, that's the second time
I said it. That's what I'm saying. I'm with you. I'm with you, buddy, I I can't wait. Till Man can't say he can't wait for football, count for Todd wished them from his mom's cork attic and Pittsburgh p A. Drew did say from the Bet the Edge NBC Sports Bet the Edge podcast, which he does with Sarah Peerlman Wherever podcast distributed, and the Deep Dive podcast didn say Classic,
which he does with Andrew Andy Molitor. Thank you, Drew appreciated as wait wait wait, and Lily from and literally from A T and T who is not fair that she got the smaller lollipop and Mikey Palmer, No, no, no, Lily, Lily, the lady and the little girl, the little girl. I love that girl all right, appreciate it. Good luck with all your bets this week at Wild Car Weekend. From all of us at the Megapod, thank you for listen. The b