Beating The Book: 2022 NFL MegaPod Super Bowl LVI Props Edition

Congratulations to Michael Palm. Todd is in the his Mom's cork Addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You good, Todd. I am not a new father as far as I know. No, that is correct. Uh. And for those who are wondering either can you can you tell the bridge story? Did you tell the bridge story on the podcast last week? Or was that on the radio? At the way and at the way end, I was just talking about where

the casino is that I go to every night. My office is literally it's literally a mile or two from my house, and I drive directly over that bridge park and then I drive back at one o'clock in the morning after the Late West Coast Games. I drove home at one o'clock in the morning the night before and my friend Sean said, now you broke the bridge. That's just great. Seven o'clock in the morning. The bridge fell down, and we can laugh about it because nobody get nobody died, right,

nobody died. Nobody died. Okay. What's the name of the bridge at Pittsburgh. I think it's called the fern Hollow Bridge. We always think of it just the Region Square bridge to get over a region square. But it's a real pain in the neck. Is now to go to my office, I gotta go all the way around. There's no more bridge there. It's a real thing. I was thinking. Is the universe trying to tell me there's something wrong with going over to my office? We're very interesting our guests

for Super Bowl fifty six. Nobuddy is more appropriate to have as a guest for the Super Bowl then Rufus, Peabody, everybody Rufus on the show. Thank you Rufus for being on the podcast for the second time this season. Appreciate it. And second time in studio. That's right, second time studio. By the way, if I'm sounding a little weird. It's because, Uh, I was just let out of quarantine and I thought I was over this COVID thing, and all of a sudden, like it's like the Revenge of the Universe on me,

and I can't breathe all of a sudden. So if I pass out in the middle of the show, you'll know why over the ear and over the mic. Proper protocol here, I'll be fine. Just so you know that people are not booing that's rude. They're saying rude for rufus the crowd, you know, the crowd, right, big crowd. All right, So we're gonna get through our prop bets. We're gonna talk a little in game props. We're gonna talk I will anyway exotic props offshore because that's what

people are here for. They want to know about the anthem and about Emma em and dre Verry J. Blige, and I'm all here for it. That's what I'm here for. As far as Super Bowl fifty six is concerned, and I can tell you're both very excited about that portion. Uh, Super fifty six, the Bengals and the Rams. This has toggled between four and four and a half. There is a three and a half out there now, but yeah, it's toggle between four and four and a half the whole.

It's the old time here, it's four now. Consensus in favor of the Rams total is down at forty eight and a half. It opened at fifty I believe got down a forty nine and a half forty nine forty eight and a half. It is stated at forty eight and a half for a long time also, And so rufus will start with you just on the on the line and the total itself. Do you have any bets? Did you make a bet? Do you plan on making any bets? I do not have a bet. I you know, if I get a good Rams money line at some

point I might make that bet. I lean Rams, but I have been focused on profits and the line is pretty close to my number, my numbers minus four and a half without any home field of image to the Rams. You know, I've heard different arguments of how much home field advantage they should get. And let's and let me just say this about your money, your call on the money line on the Rams that we say this every year for the last quarter century. This is what Christie

Andrews estimates for about the last quarter century. For whatever reason, people the casual better bets the Super Bowl differently than they do dogs during the regular season. So during the regular season betting behavior is usually take the dog plus the points for whatever reason, and no one really knows why. The last years, when betting the Super Bowl, people tend to take the dog on the money line, and what it creates is this artificial muting of the favorite on

the money line. So I remember, like a few years ago when the Patriots playing the Falcons, for instance, was that three or three and a half a little smaller than this spread, but you could get like offshore of the Patriots line. Money line got all the way down to like minus one forty if I recall. So that's the kind of opportunity you're talking about. I guess the Super Bowl middle has exist for a long existed for

a long time. It's because people You have a lot of people that are betting, like once a year just on the Super Bowl, right, and those kind of people they don't want to bet um, they don't want to lay mine, they don't want to bet a favorite on the money line. They want to bet favorite on the spread. Um. Because you know they would like that regular payout. They don't want to lay minus one seventy, But if they're beating the underdog, they want the They want that sort

of lottery payout, but the bank for the buck. They they also don't understand the point spread. Many many people do not still understand the point spread. Have you ever tried explaining the point spread to a novice? It really doesn't seem like a very complicated topic, but try explaining it to people and you will very very quickly understand the trouble that human beings have with mathematics. So the question is, how do you explain it? I feel like

different people explain it different ways. Well, I mean, maybe it's just their explanations that well that that's a good point, rufus, But I don't think it's accurate in this case because I'm actually pretty pretty articulate and explaining things. He's not questioning your are being articular. You say, how does one explain that to the novice? Right, I'll tell you how

I would explain it. I would say, oh, if the spread is three and a half, what that means is is that the team that is favored by three and a half must win. By four or more points for you to cash your bet, whereas if you bet on the underdog, they must win out right, or even if they lose by three or fewer, you will win your bet. That's how I would explain. Oh, you know what I

would say. I'd say that number next to it. You just add or subtract that number to your team's total and compared to the other teams, and whichever is higher wins. Oh you see that will confuse people. Well, it's just like minus. You know, your team's total minus three and a half against their total. That sounds so logical to you, But that would confuse me. If I didn't know what what you were talking about, I'd be like, what I've found, examples.

I've found giving them examples is the only way that it really penetrates their brains at times. For instance, if it's a four point line and I say, if the final scores one to seventeen, who would win? Yeah? No? And then if the scores to eighteen, who would win? If it was sixteen, who would win? You know? That seems to be the only way they get eeen, I

think I have an exact defar eight team. Do you so diver telling you the story about me being behind the book at the South Point during the Falcons Patriots Super Bowl when it was to the Patriots. So yeah, so this is it has to do. I had the nine the Patriots to score exactly nine ticket when it was nine. That's my whole story. So I used to do it those days. Now I do the full bed cast for Vison, but those days I only used to do the first half. And so after the first half

I would I would. I didn't want to travel home because I missed the second half. So I'm like, where am I going to hang out for the second half? This places of Madhouse. Oh, I'll go back with Chrissie and Jimmy Vicara and Vitty and I'll watch Super Bowl and quiet back there. So I go back there. Remember it was twenty eight to three a half time. Famously, people the only Super Bowl where people remember a mid

game score more than they do the final score. So it's twenty eight to three, and the Patriots score a touchdown to make it twenty eight to nine, and I think Gostkowski missed an extra point. If I'm not they did not go for two. Yeah, I don't think so, I could be wrong, But that's not the point. They ended up on nine. And so I'm back there and Chrissie has Chris Andrews, who runs the South Point Hotel casino, their computer back there, they can look at all their

liability for any number of their hundreds of props. And so all of a sudden, like he was all jovial, and then all of a sudden, he like his face turns a little like sour, and I'm like, what's wrong? Like I know him well enough where I can something's wrong. He goes, ah, and you know his face. He goes, we really don't want this to end up on the nine. And I go why. He goes, let's just say we're in for six figures if the Patriots end up on

the nine. I go, really do I exactly? Yeah. Keep in mind, in real time it only ended up being fifteen minutes, because the Patriots famously came back and not only got off the nine but won the game. But for those fifteen minutes of real time, not even football time, Chris, he's dying. Back then. I'm like, do I know the person who has the nine? He goes, yeah, you do. What was the odds? I don't know I tweeted out the ticket after it lost. Actually, I was like, man,

I had a little sweat for a little while. Um, I it was pretty high. I don't remember exactly if you could check my history common I mean, I mean, I guess nine is that you get the field goals. But that's about it. Three field goals or a touchdown in its extra point and field goal. Right, well, it was nine for you know, brief about a time and that it wasn't anymore. But that was my Yeah, that was I don't think I ever told you that story. The So okay, um Todd, do you have a play

on either the side or total. I mean, I'm not gonna play a pre game. I mean, I don't play any of the game's pre game pretty much, so why would I play this one pre game? I'm gonna play it under. I mean, if I had to you forced me, I would play the under forty eight and a half or I would play the Cincinnati team total under twenty one and a half. That's probably the best one that I would play, would be the Cincinnati under twenty one and a half team total. Why is this night different

from any other night? Is what you're basically exactly. It's a minished ton of kind of first of all monished to Okay, well, I wanted to ask, can I ask rufus a quick question about props? Whatever? Kind of interesting? Um ruff is one of the things. I mean, I don't play a lot of props. I've played more props this year, but I don't really play a lot of

props in general. But the the thing that I always wonder is if you when you're making, when you're playing your props, aren't you aren't they a lot of them correlated to what's happening in the game. So can you get in a situation where, let's say you've made a hundred props, if one team doesn't win, you're gonna lose eighty percent of them or something? Does that happen? Or is there some non correlation ability for you to have so many different props that the result of who would

win does not really come into effect? And if that is the case, If the former is the case, then won't you be just rather better betting the teams themselves? So that's a really good question. I think it's one that's kind of complicated, and I don't know all the exact correlations Um. Certainly a lot of the props are based on the point spread and the total are and so what I guess what the way we anticipate the

game playing out as a result of that. So, for example, the Bengals are four and half point underdog, which means um a four and a half pourn underdog on average when they have the ball will be trailing by three point one points every snap on their average snap will

be down three four points. I know that sounds like a larger number than you'd expect, right, But if you think about it, if the line was pick, even if the lines pick the average UM, well, the team that is pick is going to be trailing on average on their snaps because you know, think about the game starts at zero zero, team goes up seven. Oh now the other teams down seven. They have the ball down seven.

So because you're getting the ball after the other team does, right. So, um, but you're saying in a pick game, they're gonna they're gonna be they're gonna be down more than they're up when they have the ball. Yeah, both teams will be down more than they're up when they have the ball. Think about it. If you've never thought about It's kind of counterintuitive, but it makes sense because it's you get the ball after the other team has that they score

then you know, anyway, we're getting off track here. Um, yes, they're they're definitely things that are correlated, but there's also things that are sort of um, and I don't want to say anti correlated, but but correlated the other way. So for example, if I'm against a team's passing game, Um, let's say I was against you know, um, the Bengals

passing game and against all the Bengals wide receivers. You know, certainly, um, you know, if I knew that Jamar Chase had nine catches for a hundred and seventy yards, then my expectation for Tee Higgins is gonna be less than not knowing that. So so there's there's negative correlation there, right, So um, they're there. You know, certainly you can get um one of these really bad outcomes, um, which basically bad outcome for me means things happening that are exciting for the

average fan. I root for the most boring Super Bowl ever typically, but um, most of these um, you know, there I bet enough esoteric stuff and that that that I feel like you know, even if if the you know, unless it's like a crazy offensive game. Um, I'm I'm not in that that much trouble. I mean, obviously I could still be in trouble, but you know, just but but it's not correlated to a huge offensive game. All right.

Let me let me step in here before you ask more questions, Toddles, let's just establish for the audience some street grid here for Rufus. I know you downplayed this when you are in a numbers game earlier this week. But the reason that Rufus is appropriate for the Super Bowl, perhaps more than he's he's appropriate every week, but perhaps more than anything any other time of year, is because this was Super Bowl props. Was when you were back

with your team back in the day. This was kind of your week, This was your thing, right, and you made you made out very well doing this. You acknowledged you weren't the first person to do this, but you were the first person, at least at least to my knowledge, that got notoriety for doing that. Is that fair? I think that's fair. Yeah. And and do you find that the opportunities are fewer and further between, or do you think that there's still quite a few of those opportunities. Still,

I think there's still quite a few opportunities. The opportunities are not as large as they used to be, not as large, not as large. It's the aren't as big as right. You don't have the same gravy you used to have in terms of sports book prop openers, So I think there's a lot there's books have more surface area to defend now, especially with these same game parlays and stuff like that, which honestly, I'm sure there's a ton of value to be found there. It's it's not

something I've really looked into. Um, I'm you know, I'm at the point where I'm betting props. I would say once a year, but I actually bet in the last two weeks also, so um so a few times a year, just because probably there it's a it's a lot of manual work, there's a ton of art to it, um, But there are I think opportunities are a little bit different. They're smaller, but a lot of it now is betting very close to game time after the blick has driven

up prices. So the public loves betting on things to happen. They like betting receivers to go over players to score touchdowns, um on a safety, on defensive or special teams touchdown. And so the opportunities there, especially with marquee players to sort of bet unders close to game time after the public is exactly like under receiving yards you think it's going to get blown way out it is. I mean,

of course I think it is. I mean he's averaged a hundred and eighteen or hundred and seventeen receiving yards per game. Not to interrupt your flow, but that's so that's the biggest bit of macro advice we can give, right generally speaking, if you're thinking about betting over on those kinds of guys and those kind of props, you should have already been them. Yeah. And if you if you want to bet Cooper cup over, the best time

to bet it is right now. If you wanted to go under, wait as long as you yes, and especially so wouldn't you say, because we now have more and more states and just this week, right, just not this week, but just this past month, New York in Louisiana are brand new. This is entire new generations of people that do have not bet illegally right, have not bet with a local bookie, have not been offshore, who have waited for their legal opportunity to bet, and this is their

first crack at doing this stuff. That's a total that's a total overwave of betters. You would imagine if it's an unknown, it's an unknown, how much it's gonna affect these books pricing, how much they're going to respond and say, oh, you know what, we're gonna leave. You know, we know that people betting the over, we know we have the edge there. Um let him that the over will take on liability versus let's say, you know what, this is

too much liability, let's move this number. Because I think the European books um, the DraftKings fan Duels of the world bet MGMs, Caesar's um there. I don't know if I should call Caesar's European. I don't know, are there, um well, we all are Caesars are. But those books tend to, especially with prop markets, they tend to be less responsive to bets in terms of moving their prices. Um and they you know, like, you can bet something, I won't move. They just will limit you or something

like that. I don't know. Um versus books in Vegas, you bet they move the line, you bet, they move the line, and so yeah, you know, they obviously are moving lines, but it's it's less it's less responsive. They're more like, Okay, we have our algorithms being we're sticking with this a little more. Yeah, whereas Vegas reacts pretty dramatically. Okay, So by the way, I would, I would question Gilly whether in New York is going to be that big a deal. I think. I mean, when I lived in

New York, everybody was betting already. So it's like now, granted, Louisiana maybe, but in New York, it seems to me that everybody was already betting. Now maybe they're gonna all bet legally legally, What is the what's the point of otherwise, Oh, I thought you meant that they that they wouldn't have had access to this kind of stuff in the past.

I'm saying that the the prop markets that we're talking about that are largely legal, right that we're talking about, that they could be affected an entirely more dramatic way that they ever have been before. I don't think that's a nutty statement. I didn't say it was nutty. I just think that the theoretically that I think a lot more people were exposed in New York than you would

think otherwise. But maybe I'm wrong. No, No, I wasn't trying to be naive about the fact that they didn't find other ways to bet, or maybe they crossed the state line in some cases. But I'm saying there is a large group of that of that population. Let's say if it's I mean, they just made one point six billion in legalized betting in a three week span, or at one point six billion and handle in New York. It just destroyed New Jersey in three weeks. How much

of that was the free play promos? Though? Maybe that's that's the big question. That's a big question. But it's also also it's also not a standard Sunday of football either. Imagine they have sixteen games to bet on. What that number is going to be like? And I guess all I'm saying Todd is but Meltzer. Meltzer made a very good point that per capita was actually lower than which

is interesting, which is now online. I just mentioned so that So what I'm saying is of that of that huge swath of influx, there's got to be a bunch of that a huge percentage of that as people who have just we don't have to. I'm with you, I'm I'm not arguing with you. I'm just I'm just by the way. I do have a pre flop bed. I have the bagels at plus four and a half. I don't It's not a big bed. I took it. Could I see the Rams crushing him? I could go to

see the Rams winning. I could, But Burrow has shown me enough despite his poor offensive line. I'll take the point. So I do have that bed going. Just to be clear on my side, Uh, your favorite prop bet, so have you? So you're waiting for a lot now, a lot more than you used to rufus, you're waiting to bed of the ones you've made so far? How many have you made so far? As first of all, Um, well, what percentage of the total that you will make have you made so far? How about that? How many will

you have a kickoff? How many? I'm trying to think more in terms of volume, UM, I would say I probably Well, I've only made about a third of the bets that planned to make a third of the money down, Yeah, which is third very different than what it used to be. Very different. It used to be like eight was down by this point. Wow, So things have changed, it is. Yeah, I mean I think I could get of my ev if I just waited until Super Bowl weekend of bet.

When did you figure out that that change needed to be made? Well, it's not that the change needed to be made, it's just that there weren't as many opportunities early to get and so I've realized that over the last few years. You know, I might bet something. I think it's a great bet on you know, the when the lines come out and you know, game damn getting

the same line or better after the you know. So I'm basically waiting on all my unders and except for like sort of the niche markets like first reception length or something like that, where I don't think that's going to get a ton of public action. But in terms of the bigger player markets, you know, the Cooper Cup, receiving yards for the game, Cooper Cup, police score touchdown, I'm waiting on those. You have a Joe Mixing bet that you made, though, correct or yeah, I bet Joe

Mixing under receiving yards and a half. Would you get it? I think we got anywhere between twenty and a half and twenty six and a half. And you're thinking, all that is, why do I like the bet? Ye, Well, my numbers like it. I haven't projected lower. Um. The reason, I guess a big part of that. You know, he's he has been a much more active part of the receiving game the last few weeks. I'm actually actually against

the Chiefs maybe not quite as much. I have to like see what that number was there, But um, I think there is a bit of recency bias three for twenty seven last week, actually, Um, but they have there are those, I guess with the Chiefs game. Notwithstanding, have been games where there have been either positive or neutral game scripts for Cincinnati. They've been UM in the lead

or it's been a close game, whereas UM. You look in the mid season stretch where they're involved in some blowouts and uh, he was much less of a factor in the receiving game. And if you look at it, um, his his participation receiving game is very very direct. We linked to what the score differential is and what the

game script is. So UM in obvious passing situations, b Ryan's in so mixing, mixing gets his receptions and his receiving yards when the Bengals are basically leading or the game is very close, when they're trailing, Yeah, when they're when they're trailing, and you know, when they're trailing, p Ryan is the guy that is much more involved in the receiving game. So there you go, and probably much more involved in the game period because they're not exactly.

But it's interesting because you think, like, okay, if if if a team is trailing, you know, they're going to be throwing the ball more running back is gonna be running back gets receptions from that. But it's actually kind of the opposite with the Bengals, Like I mean, at least for mixing, they're up Mixing is going to be

involved in the passing game. This is why it's so interesting now with the end game props, where I find that you know when you're getting when you're looking at the end the Obviously, the the end game is huge for the line and it's also huge for the props. So if you know, if a team is at head one to three, you know and the running back, your your primary running back has say fifteen yards, they're gonna make him only like say thirty five for the full game.

Because they know he's not going to be running the ball like you just said. And the reason I brought it up now, it's just because you you had that whole discussion about mixing mix. It will be out of the game because the Bengals can't run the ball down three and the third quarter. So and you see a similar thing with the passing yards. The passing yards number goes way up for a team that's down a locked they figure, oh my gosh, she's gonna they're gonna have

to throw all the time. Now, sometimes they overinflated. I haven't been noticing, for instance, when a team's losing big in the first half, say twenty one three is a perfect example. Late in the first half of a guy has fifty passing yards, his number will be like two sixty, So they think he's gonna get two ten passing yards in the second half because you're gonna be chucking it

every play. So I mean, whether that's true or not in a particular game, obviously you have to take each one do an accoun but it is kind of interesting how the the game flow is so much of a part of these props. So I think that was really interesting what you were just telling us about do you do any of games like that? Now I'm too, I'm stressed, eating, stress,

drinking at that point. At that point, just trying to log tickets that I bet right before the game started to how will where like if you have what percentage of of if you bet thirty, can you keep track of all of them in your head? Or you just focused on a few of them the ones that are the most outlay for you know, I mean basically every play like we'll have we'll have like a drunk grading sheet open where we can kind of grade, and there'll

be many mistakes found the next day. But basically you know where some of us will be grading as things happen like oh ship, we've lost that language happen what you'll you'll figure it out the next day. Some will be mistakes well yeah, yeah, I mean we go through our tickets one by one and make sure and people double check everybody else has taken that kind of thing. Like, I mean, I would feel like you're probably the more reliable of the budge. I would have been about that

so much. So much of the props, though, can be can really come down to like one situation like, for instance, of a team is driving with two thirty five left in the first half, and they don't get the first down, and therefore the other team is going to get another chance now at the end of the first half, and they're going to be throwing the ball. That's an extra you know, fifty or sixty yards of passing, possibly for

a particular passer or for those receivers. So it's very interesting how the game flow is huge, which I mean or do most books now offer this todd I'm not trying to be naive, but here in Vegas we don't have it. Off course, don't have it in many cas Regular season has regular season NFL has in game props

fan old draft kings. Now, depending on who you are, you might not be able to bet them, like I'm not really able to bet them at Draft Kings, but the the you know you can if you're just a regular recreational better you can bet all these things in regular games. And if so, of course you can do it for the Super Bowl. But even regular games have it, you know, all these games have it all right. Here are the props that I have bet already. I'm not

sure if I'm adding more. A couple of these. A few of these might not even be there anymore, and in fact, I'll update them for you. One was no touchback on the opening kickoff. This was a complete intel kind of bet so back in the day with this, I used to go through on shows. Oh, this is the percentage of times this kicker kicked in the end zone and resulted in touchback. And this is the kind of times percentage of times it was deferred on kickoffs,

that kind of thing. Pat McAfee had this podcast last year. He kicked in the Super Bowl when he was with the Indianapolis Colts when they played the Saints. Right, but he did the kickoff they did the opening? Was was he there? Opening? Was he the kickoff kicker? And he for thirty at least I believe that's the case. Yeah, now you're now you're having me confused. But I believe

that's the way for thirty. Uh. You know what what he basically said was during a regular season game, opening kickoffs, the kickers get to mess around with the football for about thirty minutes. They get to wear it in, they get to kick it, they beat it around, and the ball by the time the game starts is you know tenderized if you will, that's my word, not his. In the Super Bowl that does not take place. You do not let me finish, and you'll get the whole story.

So so you so basically you don't get to mess around with the football and when you show up for the opening kickoff, because their whole point with this kick is to just send the ball into the Hall of Fame. So you just show up. You didn't get to mess with the ball for thirty minutes. And he says it's

like kicking a brick and so um. Then as soon as the play is over, they package the ball and they send it to Kim right that or they package it up to to be sent to Canton and so so, yes, twenty six of the last twenty eight Super Bowls have resulted in no touchback. Now, some of those were back when they kicked off from a different yard line most of them, most of them, but eight of the last ten no touch back from the current yard marker. For so,

so that's the story. And so by the way, like with Harrison Butker, he told this last year before the Chiefs Buck Super Bowl, Harrison Bucker and was in that game. So it was like plus two seventy to not be a touchback. Now it was only like it was anywhere between like plus one plus one sixty. And my argument was anything in plus money based on that kind of intel is still probably a good bet. Now it's a coin flip at William Hill, I wouldn't bet it anymore

because if Evan McPherson kicks it, he could catch it. It It could go into the end zone for all I know. But when it was plus money, if you can still find it plus money, I would bet it no touch back. Yeah, I mean this is you know, I think I think I laid a price on on it to be a touch back without that intel earlier on. But that I've heard this, I'm getting off. This reminds me of the

Indianapolis Colts versus the Chicago Bears. If you remember correctly, the Chicago Bears had a guy named Devon Hester on the team. I went to Vegas. I was living in l A. I went to Vegas um to play for the Super Bowl, and I made one or two prop beets. One of them was that the Bears would never lead in the game. I think it was like plus one seventy the Bears will never lead in the game, and I'm thinking the Bears had Rex Grossman at the quarterback position,

I had Hayton Manning at the quarterback position. I thought there was a very good chance the Bears would never lead. I also thought the Colts wouldn't be stupid enough to kick it to Devon Hester when he had only returned about five thousand kicks for touchdowns that year. Well, guess what. They decided to kick it to Devon Hester and then got destroyed the rest of the game. So I was a very unhappy camper that day about the opening. That

one that one lost quick. Uh. The other one is I laid this is not for everybody, but I laid minus three thirty on there would not be a missed extra point in this game. Uh. Evan McPherson and Matt Gay combined this year postseason and and regular season one oh three for one oh six, one oh three out of one oh six on their extra points, and that's

plus rate. Um. I know there's more math to it than making it just this simple, but even at a minus three thirty price, which converts to about seventy six, that's still a good bet. To me. Minus three sort of indoors have you been to that stadium, talk, it's kind of like a cardboard. I've been there. Look, I was there, and I was cold like it was. It was. It was freaking cold in there, like it was. I was there for the Chiefs Chargers game, which is an

incredible game. By the way, Was that the one that was delayed? One of them was delayed? Yeah, Monday, that football. I don't know. I was delayed in getting there because of l A traffic, So I got there late in the second literally a storm landed on top of sofa. No, No, this wasn't that one. I wish this was the game when it was fourth down at the times and they kept going for it, right, Yeah, I was right. It's smart coaching on both sides, and and everybody was like,

why don't they just kick field goals? Exactly that game, But it was I remember also looking at the I don't know what, what do do you call the band or the ribbon on the on the top of the upright, it was moving. It was moving a little bit so because you, I mean, the ends are open a little bit. You're it's it's a canopy. So I think temperature, I mean, temperature has an impact. Although I looked at the weather. It's gonna be expected, it's gonna be seventy one. It's

but it's not. If it was fifty degrees, then that would totally impact kickoffs and extra points. By the way, what about the one that's minus five hundred that the team will differ? I saw that this even got a regular news story in Yahoo. There's nothing more than there's no better free money bet. Then the team will defer minus five hundred or it's it's somehow awarded that the team will you know, whoever wins the coin toss will

elect to defer or something something to the effect. And it's minus five and it doesn't Well, no, it's too it's too it's too low because every team differs when they don't. Almost every team deffers when they win the when they win the coin toss. That actually every team defers. Yeah I didn't know that, Yeah really, yeah, almost, it's about it's something like seven out of I didn't know. Yeah, yeah, everybody. The first it used to be Bruce arians used to

not deffer, but even he defers. Now, So do you make any prop bets? Um? I made just a couple, but not nothing made you just like rams more first downs. Um, there's a couple other ones, but I'm not I'm not well enough versed on the props. Two tell you you should be following me on the props. Here is my one sort of p s A every year that we do on the Super Bowl show. And we've done this for over a decade now. When when you ask bookmakers, what is the prop that most trips up the public?

Longtime listeners to the megapod know where I'm going with this, rufus, I'm curious your thoughts on this. Everybody offers you know what I'm you know about today? That's the one so three unanswered so the casual better And again, if you're new to this, you'll see this prop. Will a team

score three unanswered not including extra points? Right, Well, they have three unanswered scores, and so the the yes is like minus two and the no is about plus one seventy, And the average better will look at that and'll be like three unanswered scores, the no is plus one seventy. My god, these are two really great teams. How is the no plus one seventy? And I'm totally betting that. But the truth is that it happens all the time

four unanswered scores, it correctly flips. But three unanswered scores and that is actually priced appropriately. So that's the yeah, that prop is is is correctly priced, and so people shouldn't go nuts betting the no all that it could hit. But it's not like there's value on it as as it sort of meets the eye kind of thing. But see that's a that's another one of these correlated kind of situations because I'm sure in games that there are more one sided games, there's probably more of that three

in a row thing happening. So that's I just find a lot of the props to be, like, you know, very very correlated to game. Am I wrong about that? Rufus No? I mean you're right that obviously a blowout it's more likely. But even in a closer game, even in a game it's a pick, it's still it's still very likely because and think about like you had, think about Bengals Chiefs, right, one team has it, takes a lead, the other comes back. That kind of thing happens a lot.

And what's interesting is that there's higher the total. The more chances there are for three unanswered scores, you have more opportunities. But at the same time, the higher the total, the the less independent who uh each score is. So you know, because interesting, right, it's it's it's sort of these conflicting things, right because you score, then the other team. I mean, it's less likely you're going to have a team that doesn't score for a few possessions a good point,

but I thought of it that way. Yeah, that's that's interesting. The rivers. Do you have any aboard you wanted to share that you've done already or is that the only one that bix it? Would um any other? I mean sure, Like here, you guys talk right now and I'll find something that well, let me let me do my exact I'll give you. I'll give you another one that somebody

gave me that that is good. This one, uh, the two minute warning will land exactly on two minutes is one that a very respected person uh told me to bet and it was it's I think it's like minus to seventy five minus two hundred and one of the halfs and minus two and the other half. Um, I don't know. I don't know anything about that one because I don't pay attention to that. But they seem to

think it's it's a really good one. That is a good bet because you you just sort of like in your mind's eye, you can already think of how many times does it you know, it does a play go past it and land on like one fifty seven or one fifty six. It seems like way way rarer than that betting line indicates. I need, like, yeah, that's an interesting one. So you would think it would land maybe say twenty of the time, as opposed to you know, where it's being priced more like maybe not even Yeah, yeah,

I think that's a good bet. Yeah. I'm literally like scrambling to query this right now just so I can see. Yeah, that's interesting to me. I know, I think he's right. I think that's a very good bet. So here's what Rufus is looking at up and before he provides with another bet. Here, So here, my here, my thoughts on the exotics, if you will, which are available more offshore than they are. But everyone on this bag of pot through the years wants to hear about this. So Mickey Guyton,

who I was unfamiliar with, is a country singer. She is singing the national anthem, uh, the national anthem. The only evidence of her singing at national anthem on YouTube is is she did one in front of It was in Washington, d C. It was in front of some very elaborate orchestration, maybe even the National sem any orchestra for all I know, And it was done at some event and she sprinted through it like she just it was like she was double parked outside or something. She

didn't like one. I mean the whole video was one, so it was under that, right, So okay, I heard could be So the first Super Bowl prop that came out was at nine seconds, so one. So you would think you'd be like, oh, well, she's got to be an under then, right, No. I immediately thought to myself, I'm like, there is no possible way that she is going to sing anything quicker, Like, no way, you know, as quick as she did in that video, she's gonna

absolutely milk it more than that. Ninety five seconds is an unbelievably low number for a national anthem. So I said, it's a oh like around two minutes, like she give take a few seconds. So I said, yeah, I said, over on this, and now I'm told that it's already at one forty. So apparently everybody else had the same exact thinking that I did. So now I'm not sure how how much I would bet that anymore. Right, Like it's getting I'm playing in game. I'm doing the game,

but in gaming vanthem uh. And then and then the the other one that we've made hay on here through the years is and I'm not sure how many places you can find this on because I find this a little scarcer this year than in previous years, just on my sort of anecdotal look. But I know like a place like uh, the old bow Dogs of the World, Bovada, right that I think they still have this. If you can find what song will be played first at the halftime show, that's always the big one. We've hit this

many years. Um it is again, It's Dr Dre, It's Eminem, It's Mary J. Blige, is Missy Elliott, it is Kendrick Lamar. It's a whole hodgepodge of hip hop. It is it like everybody gets a song or guess I guess it's like people don't even know what's gonna happen. Yeah, so you know, my I have some history with these artists in terms of following their careers. To me, there are only two candidates, only two candidates for for what the

first song will be? Uh, and there's only the only two possible candidates on those are are California Love, which was Dre's biggest which he had with Tupac and obviously the super Bowl is being played in California. And then the other one is Eminem's big hit from eight Mile called Lose Yourself, which is the you only get one shot. People know that song, right, one opportunity. What about California Girls? Isn't that? It no idea what you're talking about? Alright?

So um so to me, it's only between those two solves. One of those is going to be the opener and one of those is going to be the clothes. Today on a numbers game, I said Californy. I didn't. I didn't mention lose yourself, but I said, I said, it's either California Love or and before I got to say lose yourself, Crack Bill Crackerburger goes, I'll tell you right now,

it's not California Love. So my betting advice based on that reaction from Crack is that Eminem's Lose Yourself will be the first song played on the Super Bowl half do you get multiple choice on that they give gives you They typically give you anywhere between five to eight songs. So lose yourself, Rufus. I know you do things by the numbers, but can you can you argue with that unbelievable Rufus model had Rufus model had love yourself? My

mom loves itself too much? Sometimes the problem Rufus Rufus model has a lot of love in it. You know, I like I like I like models, and I like loving myself. Who doesn't? So yeah, you know, I'm just gonna leave it at that. So there it is, lose yourself, Lose yourself. Eminem that's gonna be your first song. And I oh, that's a Ladies and Gentleman star of last week's megapod Uh Ladies and Gentleman Brian Ortega's with us. Brian,

you were phenomenal on can we Brian? Can we hear you on the air or you're just talking to our ear talking to her here? Okay? So Brian Ortega, who was the star of last week's Man's Guide to Sin City The Vegas Lifestyle podcasts into my ear, saying that California lovel will be the last song. Is that what you're saying? Okay, so we're we're consensus here, California Love is gonna be the last song. Lose Yourself is going to be the first song. So lose Yourself as the

answer to the first song. Uh, and we steak megapod reputationally. But the way we don't have that in Pennsylvania. I think that's off of this stuff is down rufus. Did you do the query about the two minute warry thing? Um? I tried to. I feel like I messed it up somehow. How do how does would figure? I'm literally looking at the play by play and just saying, Okay, is there a play where like variable where the place started exactly

two minutes or seconds left in the second quarter? But I think I didn't need to get rid of penalties and ship like that. Okay, do you have one more proper so you want to share with us? Um? I mean I have a lot of propers, I bet, but the question is at least spill um. Okay, I'll share an over I bet, actually, because that's something that's been that basically, UM. I like Van Jefferson over two and

a half passing receptions at plus one ten. Okay, yeah, um, and he's you go ahead, no, he I guess his I mean his role has been Um, well, he's still gotten a lot of snaps and ran a lot of routes the last few weeks. He just hasn't had a lot of catches and Odell Beckham has gotten a lot more catches than he has. But Odell Beckham is basically in the Robert Woods role. Um. I mean statistically they're sort of roles are fairly indistinguishable. Um, at least last

few weeks. Um what Robert Woods did the first nine weeks this season when he was healthy. So UM, I don't think I mean Van Jefferson's role has certainly, I mean his his target share has decreased a lot in recent weeks. But he he was banged up a little bit. I mean, I know that McVeigh said that there was the week against the Niners that Ben Scaroni was in like for a potential game winning drive, um in like

crunch time instead of Van Jefferson. And he he said when asked about it, Um, McVeigh said, oh, you know, we were just trying, like we like Scaronik, We're trying it out. But I mean I think, you know, I don't buy that exactly. I think that I think he was banged up a little bit. I mean, his his snap counts are back up the last two weeks, and so I think that maybe there's a bit of an overaction of those um sort of weeks where he wasn't really involved as much. And this is all correctly based

on it snap counts and more specifically targets. Yeah. Yeah, So I look at right, I project out snapcounts and routes run, and then I projected out of guy's target it's her route run, okay, and then whether they got to catch the ball orvan Jefferson over two and a half receptions? Yeah, okay, I like that, which he has not gone over two and a half in and even his last four games. You get plus actually haven't gone over a lot recently. But sorry, plus money plus money, Okay,

I like it. Rufus flora is your want to give hate? I hate over? So this was like this is an over that you know, I I just like, I plug my nose and I bet the over, and I don't bet that much on overs because I feel like, you know, if they lose, I just feel like very bad about myself. Just to be clear, you're not the guy at the super Bowl party who, while everybody else is enjoying themselves, you're in the corner on a white board trying to figure out the results of your brother. That's not you.

You are fully immersed in the in the drinking and eating of a Super Bowl, and you'll worry about the props afterwards. I'm worried about the problems while I'm drinking and eating. Well, okay, I just wanted to make it's sort of a combination. It's it's it's basically yes, okay, but I mean a white computer screen. Why is Rufus so annoyed in the corner He's trying to figure out

if fan Jefferson is gonna get a third catch. I'm drinking and eating during every football game, so if you're wondering about that, But here's here's the question I have for you. Um, did this just happened? The seventies Sixers acquire James Harden? Oh my goodness, it happened. Wait let's do the Wait a minute, So it did happen, So listen, you have there's a brief basketball aside, so listen. On

Primetime Action I'm saying. I'm telling Kelly Bilin and Matt Brown, I'm like, how real do you think it's Hardened and Simmons thing is? And those two guys basically laugh me off the show. They're like, it's less than zero percent chance, Gill. And then last night Matt conceded it was a three percent chance. It is happening. Seventy Sixers acquired James Harden in a trade for Ben Simmons. Nets also get Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first round picks. Did the did

the Sixers just give up everything to get Hardened? Good? Lord? Hard is damaged Goods? I mean, he's never been a winner anyways, why would you want him away? That's what I'm saying. With his NBA stuff, don't laugh me off the show. This ship always happens. Wow, watch college basketball. The NBA is no betting association. Um, can I ask you, if it's a quick question, what he thinks about? Okay, so, so the so? The the narrative obviously of this game.

I guess the biggest narrative, and I don't watch all the regular sports talk show nonsense, but I would say probably the regular narrative is can the can the Bengals block the l a Rams fierce pass rush because they

don't seem to be able to block anybody's pastors. If so, is it possible that um Burrow will throw the ball quicker and meaning have more routes to maybe quick dump off passes to say a tight end or something like that, or whoever, right, whatever you would whatever answer you would have to the fact we can't block these guys and we have to get rid of the ball quickly. Do you think that that is going to have a big

effect on on the props, especially for the receivers. Yeah, I think it could, and and and maybe a little yea more more more running the ball too. I think that's you know, if they get if they get behind there, they could be in trouble. Though, given the fact that you're right, they cannot block and the Rams certainly have every fearsome pass rushing I have I have I have bur projected to be sacked three point five five times. That is a lot. That is a very large number.

How many three point five five? Wow? Yeah? So uh, you know, I'm not the XS and os guy, Todd, but I can see that happening for sure. The thing is I don't know. I mean, the whole point here is like coaches come up with game plans that they don't expect the other teams to be ready for and all that stuff. So you know, if if every team knew what the other team exactly was going to do, then UM, well then it would be a lot easier

and they would not be very good coach. So I also heard also heard as to talk about this on his radio show about the UM odds on the yards are not exactly as they should be for a four and a half point favorite, something to the effect that the Bengals were a little more inflated. I think I have that right. Too many sected, I mean I someone told them about this too. Someone told me that as I said said this, I don't know what that means exactly though, that like somehow the people too many yards.

But the correlation he was saying like this, there are correlation yards, UM that a certain like a four and a half point favorite means that that team is going to get, say twenty five more yards in the game. I forget exactly what he said. Something that times Okay, you know, oftentimes the team that loses the game, UM has more yards because it's it's especially if you're trailing, you're gonna get a lot of a lot more yards

but fewer points. Right, So I'm thinking he's talking about on average, but I guess I don't know exactly what he said, so it doesn't really make a lot of sense. First off. Also, it's team specific. I don't know if he's talking about yards for the team overall, like a prop like how many yards will the rams or anglic or is it just like the individual player props and adding those together, because I mean, we will say that he had some kind of correlation to both of those. Okay, Okay,

I hear you. I'll have to listen to it. Maybe I don't. I don't know how to where we're the radio, where to find the radio. It was on like some Fox Sports thing that I listened to for a couple of minutes, and he was talking about it. I found

it pretty interesting that was which one is specific? That one? No, it wasn't a proper he was he was talking about forensic was talking about the the correlation of the point spread to the yards is awful a little bit for one team or the other, meaning a four and a half point favorite should be a certain amount more yards and it's not really correct for this game or something. And I don't remember exactly what he said, but it was something to that fact that I thought maybe Rufus

would know about it. Anyways, we could talk more more of Rufus's props, because I find him interesting. One or two more Rufous. I mean, I have lots of problems, but but I'm I'm I'm going to respond to what you asked me. Okay, all right, how but what's the juiciest one that you think that you love? The juiciest one, Like when you first got it, you were like, oh my gosh, this is so juicy. I don't know, there

wasn't that much that was super juicy. I mean, I guess when I first saw Odell Beckham's receiving yards number, um like sixty five and a half. And but it's gone up since then. I think it'll keep going up. I like that too high. What is the one I think you already related to? One of the the touchback I was gonna say, what's the one that you are slightly regretful over? Oh? I made a bad bet. I made a bet on no um on humor not to get a touch back minus two eight five at circa UM.

At the opener, I think I I somehow like I was. I pulled over. Circuit props came out like about five minutes before I thought they would, and so I was not at the destination I was hoping to be at. UM, I wasn't home. So I literally had pulled over by the side of the road, pulled out my computer and was trying to bet these things when they came out, and so UM I think I literally, well, I kind of did some back of the uenble of calculations on that one. I didn't have a number ready for it.

And then when I actually got into the nitty gritty of it and looked, UM, I found that I wasn't just a bad bet. It was a very bad bet, and I like the other side of it. So I ended up but I will say, because they moved the line so much. I ended up betting minus two eighty five on the no Hubert. Well, I bet I bet plus sorry, I bet plus two nine on the Huber touchback, and then I came back and bet no minus two

eighty five. So I locked an old prophet there with my bad bet yeah, I mean I'd rather not have like had to lay all that money to win that very small small amount. But what's the what's the biggest outlet you have on any of these props? What's the one that um is the most? Probably te Higgins under receptions Maybe I don't know te Higgins under receptions alright

under five and a half. Was there was there a year that you look back all the Super Bowl props that you remember as you were the granddaddy of them all where you made the most. Hey, well, my first my first two years ever betting props were probably like

the best in terms of r o I percentage. So the first year I hit, I didn't even watch the game, the Steelers Cardinals Super Bowl, And I still remember telling everybody the LVSC office, um or I think Brian Blessing can come around and asked us to predict our final score, and I said twenty three, which ended up being the actual final score. Um, yeah, I know I should have been betting these like fan duel exact score teams, right, Um that was just like top of like I was like, yeah,

it sounds like a reasonable score. But that Super Bowl I hit, I didn't watch it because I was too nervous. I borrowed money from friends. I had people invest in me. Um. I made like a I think the money that was bad. I made a dollar profit out of like sixty invested because I hit Gary russell first touchdown. That was a big one. Gary Russell. Yeah, do you have a first touchdown for this? Yeah? Yeah, I bet cam Makers at at plus seven fifty and higher. I make it plus

six seventy. Somebody was asking me about that on Twitter today, what do you think about cam Makers first touchdown? There? You go? I like it, Um, But the next one. I still remember the end with the Peyton Manning Um, it was oh Saints to beat the Colts. I had both exact as. I hit um Reggie like Manning under

his Wayne unders. I still remember the fourth down pass and headed for Wayne going in complete and like jumping on the shoulders of one of my business partners, and we were just like because we like, basically there, you know, that was a huge leverage play there. If he scores that touchdown, man, he goes over yards. Wayne goes over yards. Man, he goes over touchdowns and and everything and it all won. Yeah.

So that was How about the Steeler in the Steelers Super Bowl, I had over twenty three and a half. First half, it's ten seven Kurt Warners at the Steeler four yard line. There's about twelve seconds left in the first hour. I have over twenty three and a half. I'm just hoping for a touchdown for the Cardinals, right because I'm ten at the half, because I have over

twenty three and a half. And he throws it to Harrison, and Harrison is rumbling, bumbling, stumbling down the sideline with a convoy of Steelers and a convoy of Cardinals, and he gets tackled at the at the what is either the one yard line or in the ends, and they call it a touchdown. But it was extremely close on the on the replay and barely the nose of the ball.

And when I see the replay of the of the of the of the play now, I noticed that the guy who made the tackle, Larry Fitzgerald, who came from all the way on the other side, he was standing out of bounds when he first touched Harrison, and I was wondering, if you're standing out of bounds and you're holding a guy, is the guy still considered in bounds or out of bounds. I think you're out of bottles. I'm pretty sure you're out of bounds. You should be right.

You can't make a tackle from out of bounds bounce, Like, is there some rule against making a tackle while you're touching out of bounce on him? Yeah, if you're I mean, we'll think about it. I've never seen something penalized for I'm never seen it either. But if you watch the replay, you'll notice that if a guy is completely a guy is out of bounds and he's making a can you tackle a guy? I would assume. So, really, why, I don't know, because I've never seen a rule against it.

I've never seen How many times have you seen the guy could tackle someone from out of bounds? I think I taped it. I mean, especially if there's a fumble or something or like, I don't know, I mean, I don't know. There's a bubble and there's somebody touching the guy who's out of bounds. Technically he's the guy. Like the guy recovers it, he's out of bounce, he's trying to recover it. He's touching the guy he makes the tackle.

That's not a penalty. But how many times have you seen a receiver and the first contact the person to to have him be ruled down is a guy that's out of bounds making the tackle. I don't think you see that now. I feel like you can see it on a fumble recovery like near the sideline. No, you'll see the fumble recovery with a guy out of bounds. But I'm saying that. No, No No, I'm saying the tackle because he's also going for the fumble. He's out of

bounce like angled in. He's the guy slides. There's a billion guys sliding towards the sideline, and there's a bunch of guys. Some of them are landing out about some of them are landing inbounds, are touching each other. That happens each other. I don't think the show has taken a turn with it. I don't. I don't know about that. Guys. We Well, this gives me an opportunity to take to take to say two things. Look at that I can

look at that play. It's amazing because one yeah, One, I do wonder if that James Harrison touchdown would have withstood replaced scrutiny of today forget Larry Fitz heard that of bounds. Would the ball have been ruled over? Right? Yeah? I know they did, But today seems so much more pickyune right, Today seems so much more scrutinized. The other thing is it gives me an opportunity to say, the

greatest NFL stat there ever is there's never been. Larry Fitzgerald has more tackles then he has dropped than he has dropped passes in his career. That is the most incredible staff You know, you know, you know what it means. It means that that too many interceptions have been thrown to him. He hasn't won enough. Is that where you got it? I don't know. Well, his quarterbacks. He played with a lot of quarterbacks who through a lot of

bad passes. But yeah, that was that was one of the most I'll never forget that super I was at the Mandalaid Bay and I'm like losing my mind because Harrison intercepts and now he's rolling, He's rumbling down the sidelines. Do you realize how long that play was? Because there was literally a convoy of guys and I'm thinking to myself, if he gets tackled, it's it's over. There's no way that there was like five Steelers and six Cardinals running

with him. It was incredible. By the way. By the way, yes, I've googled this. In college football, you can come back in the field of play and make a tackle. I don't know. I don't have an answer for NFL, but come back, come back in the field of play. Yes, I'm talking about making a tackle. Yes, what, you can go back in the field of play and make one. I'm saying when you're out of bounds. I think you

guys are mistaken about that. When you're out of bounds, you and you're the first person to make contact and tackle. I don't you're not a how to do that all the time? You don't know. I'm not saying. I'm not saying you see it all the time. I'm saying what what Rufus is saying is theoretically possible. I remember millions of games where they fumble the ball towards the sideline and there's six guys over there on the sidelines. Some of them are touching out of bounds, some of them

are not. So I could see how he's what he's saying is also true. I'm not sure I love how in the same sentence, You're like, no, I'm not saying it happens millions of times, but I've seen millions of times. Well no, but I have seen millions of times fumbles on this near the sideline where guys are rolling around. I don't know what that means. That for sure you have to Yeah, you can't be out of bounds and recover the fumble. But I'm we're talking about tackles here, man,

We're talking about tackles, right. But what he's saying is if a guy could if a guy fell on the ball just like a half a foot by the by the aut of bounds and another guy from the other team is laying on top of him and half out of bounds, they would call it a tackle, which is kind of similar to this scenario. Because they're saying, I'm

just confused. Let's let's say you. Let's say you recover the ball at half a yard from the from the out of bounds and you're not out of bounds, and there's a thousand guys jumping on top of you to also get the ball, and some of those people are touching out of bounds and they're on the other team. Are those people credited with the tackle because they're touching you even though maybe their leg is out of bounds. That's what Rufus is saying. See, that's what I'm saying.

That I have the NFL rule book open here, I can't be very exciting here. I'm I'm having trouble finding it, all right, gentlemen. It's a big rule book. Though. It's a big rule book. All right. I think we've we've done all we can do. Unless rufus again, I know you want to be provoked into you want to be prompted. Just one more problem, Yeah, and I know how much exciting I don't know. I mean, I sell to bet,

how rufus? How about this? I know you don't in game prop bet, but if you did in game prop bet, would you what would you be looking to do or not looking to do in a scenario for example? Excellent exit question, good question. Honestly, I don't know. I mean, because I don't know how well these things the game scenarios are priced in. You know, maybe you don't think they're priced in enough. So they are priced there are priced. I don't think they're they're priced to withstand your modeling.

Let's put it that way. Well, I've never modeled in games, so I think they probably are priced to withstand it. But why don't I just give you one one more prop? I like, actually, is is the score not to be tied after zero zero? I make the price minus you can get minus one ten um in a lot of places the score not to be tied. That doesn't include like after a touchdown, before the extra point, so it's

after just like just like for three unanswered scores. So yes, I'm betting that there will not be a tie after zero zero, which is done pretty poorly this postseason if you put betting that, by the way, because there were ties, well, yeah, every game comes back and goes to overtime and it's one by a field goal. I mean the one in that vein is will the game be decided by exactly three points? No, I've seen that at minus five hundred better. My prices minus five fifty on it. You can actually

find that. You can you can evaluate that one using the unobated alternate lines calculator. If you if you look at you go, you put in minus four and a half for the line. Look um, put in an alternate alternate line. I can't speak anymore. Of minus three and a half and then alternate line of minus two and a half, and look at the difference between those two. Calculate the percentages for the implied probabilities and do the same thing for plus two and a half and plus

three and a half. Add those together you have your chance of the game lands on exactly three. Okay, So I think it's a recency bias because like every playoff game, it seems like has been decided by exactly three points. And last week I got burned. I laid minus seven hundred at the south point that on the bet Rams will win by exactly three points. No, no, minus seven hundred. Brutal,

great great bet, bad result, great bed bad result. First and first and first intent from the twelve yard line, and the idiot runs the ball right into the line to of course give us second and eleven. You know there's no way they we're gonna get toushed one. But you know your reaction there, rufus. You know what that says. It says that you bet the process. That's right. You gotta you gotta be you gotta be comfortable with that. Uh. By the way, here's one that I would like to

just say real quick, cam Akers. If the Rams get behind, you can bet all the cam Akers you want running under, because they'll just they'll abandon the run. They're not gonna run that much anyways. But even if they were to run, they're gonna run because they're ahead. If they're behind, they're they're gonna throw that football. And I don't think cam Akers is gonna get his yards, and I don't think

they'll bring it down far enough. So for instance, if cam Akers has say ten yards early, and they're down seven somehow, you know, and then now they move it from from whatever it is now to like say forty or thirty five, betted under cam Akers ain't gonna get the ball if they're down. I love it. I like that, Todd. Very nice again to hear in the state of Nevada. Sure wish you could bet that gout a way, h huh.

I think similarly mixing as well, but just because of what Rufus said about p Rhyan, but to be more in the passing give it. I think it's even more so for the Rams. I would say the Bengals, it seems like they I mean, they won't abandon. No, they don't, they say fairly balanced. I mean, of course, if you're down big, you're gonna abandon at some point, but I mean mixing they were down what was the score on their final drive before a time three? They're still running

the ball. They were still they still and they were still running. Which is that in it? Yeah, Naji Harris is the one guy that they messed the props up for because the Steelers will even run down twenty nine nothing against Minnesota and down. The Steelers were down a zillion times this year and and usually means you can just play the running backs under for those teams and usually win. But you can't with Naji because they're always going to give it to Naji. They never abandoned the

run even though they can't even run. But it's kind of interesting. You can't run, can't pass, Lose yourself, first song, first song, Super Bowl half time show, lose yourself. You remember nothing else from this podcast. That's a whole different shows. It's a whole different shot. Uh, that doesn't for the Mega pod. That does it for the Mega Pod, for the year, for the year, for the year, for the well, for the season. Anyways, there's no offseason. Yeah, no, I

I do. I'm gonna do Tennis Grand Slams. I've committed to doing Tennis Grand Slams, moving a little drifting from baseball over time, moving towards tennis. And plus we don't even know if there's gonna be baseball, for God's sakes, I mean, it's just ridiculous that that's the best tweet during that Chief's Bills masterpiece was Dan Haren, the former MLB, the former Major League Baseball pitcher, tweeting, just so you

guys know baseball is in the lockout. It right in the middle of the Bills and the Chiefs dramatic finish. That was awesome, Just so I can so I can heckle Tim Anderson and have him yell back at me like that like last year, and then Gilly's all me on ESPN way Big to Anderson's home behind the dugout. God wished if I can't believe he actually started screaming back on me, hysteric, putting his weight on the scale. We look forward to random college basketball tournaments where you

hecko as well. You know what I tried. I went to the Duqueenne UH Saint Bonaventure game and I put up some videos. But the problem is there was too many people there and it was too loud in the in the in the in the stands. It's much better when you gotta go to like a Robert Morris game. Robert Morris is a moon township. How's your golf betting going? By the way? Um, I mean I had a great year last year. I'm not a great start of the

season so far. Down a little bit, but well that's what we're We're five weeks into the year or something. But Todd, I actually I'm going to tease something for you. It anobated we're about where we're coming out with um in the next few weeks. A tool for in game college basketball betting, basically value of points. So like you see minus three and a half with three minutes to go, this is the score differential or whatever. I don't know, Um, what's minus two and a half? What's minus fort and alp?

Like how much of those points worth? So if you're line shopping between books, I think that's uh, oh yeah, that's awesome. I'll have to definitely check that out. And college basketball has turned around for me. Uh last year, I had an amazing season. This year, I was down for about the first month and a half and now I've turned it around and I'm up in college basketball. So college basketball has been you know, it's starting to

really turn to the upside for me. UM. The one thing that you may notice, I don't know if you notice this roof, is you may not watch a lot of college basketball. They don't fail as much late in college basketball as they were in previous years. So in the past, if the team was ahead by legs, say five points with forty five seconds left, they would fail immediately. And this year they're not doing it as much. Experience analytics, I think there's too much uh NBA influence, UM, the

kids are. I think that the coaches are starting to think, okay, well we have a better chance if we can just get a stop down five and then hit a three with fifteen seconds left and then go from there. I don't know whether they're right or they're wrong. To me, it still seems like you have a better chance of these kids missing the free throws and you should foul sooner,

but they don't seem to be doing it. The the other thing that is just an incredible, incredible pet peeve is they don't know that how to do the two for ones at the end of the first half, if they have the bath with fifty two seconds left, it's unbelievable. It drives you absolutely crazy. So you know, anybody who says, oh, when did you ever coach a college basketball game? I don't need to coach a college basketball game to know

some of these things are maronic. And there's definitely my biggest pet peeve is the whole thing about if you're ahead, I hope I'll say this right, if you're a head in the college basketball game and you're trying to milk clock some of these teams immediately inbounds the ball, just take your time. The clock is moving, it just keeps running.

You could like the ball could drift away, and it's like and they race the inbounds and then they have a jacked up possession when they should have been wasting the time at the front end of that possession anyway, right, and then it's just it's just brain head basketball drives me nuts. Take four seconds every time, didn't know it.

Just stand there and be like, okay, one, Yeah, games have been one and lost on that kind of stuff, because that stuff adds up um all right, but you know what, you know, we We've never coached basketball, so I don't think we know. Yeah, we must not know anything, all right, Todd, thank you for a season's worth. Mike Palm h in memoriam. I don't know where he is, but he's a father. You guys broke up on me

at the end. I can't hear you. Well, we're just saying thank you for you for doing the podcast for the whole year. Todd. We appreciate it, man. Thank you for all your efforts, all your songs. You know what your best performance was that one show where you were totally serious. You were awesome that. I wish you could hear you. Oh you can't hear me anyway. Being serious Todd on a one with Chris and Adam surt Off a couple of weeks ago was spectacular. Rufus, Thank you

very much, sir. Twice this year. Uh, maybe not as fun as doing our numbers game thing where we just talk about everything else besides sports, but we'll get back to that eventually. No, I mean sports in my life too. Yeah, thank you all for listening. In luck with Super Bowl fifty six with all your bets. Thanks for listening, Megapod, nothing makea b but the meeting of the book podcast we'll be back. Tennis, golf, whole bunch of stuff. The NFL Draft we'll do all of in the off season.

Thanks for listening, Yeah,