Beating The Book: 2022 NFL MegaPod Divisional Round Weekend Preview

Did you enjoy your sausas with muffing with egg and hash brown? Delicious? Bad for I didn't know Chris was going to be here. Chris, I come every time. That might be my last meal, like if they if I'm you know, pick your last meal, it could be a sausage McMuffin with egg. It's my go to order here the morning. That's the voice of Las Vegas, Chris multiple Heady Happen contest winner here in Las Vegas at the

Palms at the Wind back in the day. UH. College football last man Standing second and fifth and circu not this year but last year. Then this year had the nerve to chop for NFL Last Man Standing at stations glad to have you here, man, thanks for doing this again. It's good to be here. It's good to get out of the house and see people. Did I get your whole resume down? Did I get that pretty much all of it? I don't know. I don't know. Todd Wish now from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. How

you doing, Toddy? Hey, hey, hey, So if I'm in Vegas at the end of March or is your Chilly is going to be good enough to play tennis? Finally, he yeah, it will be okay. There will be lines available. And all I will say, folks, is no matter how much they inflate the lines on me versus my good friend Mikey and Gilly still lay the chalk. I haven't played in two years. So there you go. That's the

that's the issue with that. Um So wait, I have a question for Mike and Todd for and Christopher give me for for going to the to the board here, but what did we do with division round? Do we still give three picks? Is that what we did last year? So so I don't know what we did, but I'm suggesting we go down to two with that. Let's go to two picks this week, says the leader. No, I'm the leader. Yeah, what do you say? What do you think? I don't think he's Oh, I don't know if you

what you asked? Mike? What's the password here? Who knows? What do you say about the podcast? Everybody? Mike? If that's the case, he's just trying to run out the funk. We should increase it to six picks. I'm thinking I'm thinking eight. You got to give a side in total on every game. If we go down to two, I'm your winner. By the way, I have the best record of the bunch. What about next week? Next week? Oh? They're still I mean, but you guys can't catch me

at this point, can you? For what? I'm one game behind your one game? I went three and a Yeah, but weren't you like distance behind it? I made up two and a half games. I must have been three and a half games. So what are we doing? Two picks is fun? Okay? And uh the teaser? What's the teaser? We're very close on? Well, first of all, give all the standings then okay, so mikey is twenty seven, twenty nine and one. Can we do this in order of

like like a normal personal lists. Okay, you were eight and one, Mikey is twenty seven, twenty nine, and why behind what the hell happened? I three and thirty four? You're like this, You're like in the FIA feeling better about my teaser, Chris, Chris, I had to go off of them, otherwise I had no way to come back that what happened good strategy, and then the teasers was fifty on a second. I was a solid fifty and forty in my millions, and the teasers I was. That's

why it's fifty bad? Mikey, is that bad? Okay? So why do you gotta why do you gotta just you know whatever? Okay? Teasers? Right now, the records are me eleven and eight and the two losers and eight and one two losers a half game back now all of a sudden eight one Michael Palm and Gilly the iceman, who are very condescending. Anyways, that's what it is, and teasers is very important, obviously, and that's why I'm gonna

be all right. So Chris, before we give our thoughts on the divisional round games, you just indicated right there that you did not have the greatest football season. Ever, is it fair to say that it just got real scorely this year? With COVID and with late injury reports? What would you say was the difference this year? Or can you even define such a thing? Oh? I you know, for me, you know, I was really unhappy, uh for a while, and now I've started to realize I should

be happy that I'm just hovering around even. I was actually up in the night to one in three last week and now I'm like right around even, you know, trying to hold my head above water. But whatever could go seems to have gone wrong this year. I mean it. You know, you have to take coin coin toss games with stride. I I got a lot of breaks last year, and I said that all along. If you don't get lucky, you can't have seasons like that. But uh, it's the

verse this year. So I'm you know, it's just awful, uh in that respect. But that's okay. It's you know, hey, that's part of gambling. You take that in stride. You don't piss a moan about it and you don't whine about it, and uh uh but I've fought against that, and uh, I believe the metrics are not following suit. Uh in most cases the entire season, I'm seeing an inverse of generally people that don't fare well in NFL having a lot more success. I think the books had

UH far more bad weekends than in years past. And and it's an anomaly. And that's fine. I can live with that. If this is gonna be my worst season UH in years, and I'm and I'm I can still be up for the year. Uh. I can live with that because very and it's hard to fight. I mean, some people's you know, bad season. This year is really bad. And and Roxy Roxborough still said out loud in public, he goes, I thought, you know, I used to say that no one could beat the NFL, but Las Vegas

Chris may have proven me wrong. So there it is. Also, remember any hundred picks is such a small sample. Side people think one hundred picks is a lot of picks. It's nothing. No, try a thousand picks. Then you start

to get into some hundred picks is absolutely nothing. So you've got you know, you're evens Mikey Stellar nine and one is not a lot of picks, even your twenty three and thirty four and not a lot of Yes, that one too, by the way, And by the way, I had my best NFL in game season this year. So again I caution you folks, especially playoff games, be careful and if you wait till the end game, you have such a better chance. Alright. So that being said, we're doing two pre flops per person. Uh and at

Belt Divisional round. After a wild card weekend where four of the six games were completely done by halftime just for absolute clunkers. A fifth game the Bengals and the Raiders that was marred by i'll use the word again, clunky officiating. Mikey, I know you can appreciate that kind of thing. Uh. And then the only other game that was, you know, the only other game in San Francisco DWLLS that was fun. Obviously gaps on both sides of Kyle Shanahan and Mike McCarthy famously, but that was the one

game that really sort of played out nicely. But that was a tough week to get through. We're gonna you know, I don't want to complain too much because we're gonna pine for football here and I've got a couple of weeks. But um, that was a tough weekend. But at least what it might have done by getting rid of the stinky teams talking about Philly and Pittsburgh and Arizona and uh the Eagle. Who else was the fourth team of Patriots? Patriots? Well,

they weren't. You know what, they weren't if you power ranked them, they weren't my top eight either. I think we have the right eight teams. I think these are the best eight teams in football. You don't think so? No. I want to pose this question if you had to go one way or the other, and Todd you can answer this first. Would you rather see an eight team playoff where nobody gets a buy? Or go back to the six team format where the one and two seats

get a buy? I like the six teams better. I mean no, Okay, let me put it this this week. The better in me likes more games, obviously, more games, more opportunities in game. The the fan in me likes the six games better. I don't like this extra Again, remember in the six game format we had the Seattle Seahawks, or this in the Saints game. Didn't they have like a seven eight and one record or some ridiculous record they got in the playoffs as the sixth seed and

one that game. I like a six team playoffs. I always go for less playoff teams than more player and I think it's baseball makes the mistakes and opens up their playoffs to more teams. It is just gonna be, you know, ridiculous, and you know, well, anyways, it's totally uninteresting sport. Thank god you can bet on it. But if you uh for me, is always bad. I don't like.

I think Todd answered that perfectly. I think I think you h everything you said about being a better Yes, but from a fan's perspective, and it makes sense intuitively, right, if you get three six, four five matchups, you will have better football games to expand it to a seven team, which is just on the edge of having half the teams in your conference in the playoffs, you are bound to get to seven games that are awful. And none of us believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers of the Philadelphia

Eagles were playoff teams. Like when we think of a NFL team that is worthy of the playoffs, those teams don't leap off the page. And and with apologies that Patriots and the Cardinals who also put up clunkers, but I think we all think that the Patriots and Cardinals were vastly better teams by and large than the Eagles and the Steelers were. Now will work out perfectly that cleanly where the seventh seed is so much worse than

the six each and every year? Probably not. But remember, if the Niners don't come back from seventeen points against the Rams in Week eight teen, we're subjected to not only the Equals but also the Saints as well. So I'm totally with Todd's answer. I think it's perfectly answered you. That's that's why I suggested I don't like the seven teams. I think it's deluded the playoffs. Do you agree with I'll tell you what. I don't even like the seventeenth

week of football. I mean I like it again, I like it, forbid it, but it's too many games, Okay, just too many games. I've said this in different ways all year. Don't you feel like adding the seventeenth game in some way triggered NFL teams not necessarily to go into load management, but that it almost mentally triggered something where they were like, you know what, we can't go full throttle on all these games. I use the Bills. In his example, You're you're not in Chris, Oh yeah.

I think I think we're due for a change in strategy. You know, we're obviously going to see an eighteenth game. We can't avoid that. They should have just done it all at once. And I think you're gonna have to have these teams start to have two quarterbacks and learn how to play with two quarterbacks. You can't keep a quarterback healthy for you know, eighteen games plus playoffs. Uh. That's which would completely change the sport as we know it.

It's gonna change it. And you know, I don't understand why these teams are. I mean, there's nothing wrong with having two decent quarterbacks. And I think teams that can get a great backup uh and actually play them intentionally every now and then, uh, and give their quarterbacks from time off, I think they're going to be at an advantage.

You know, Tampa Bay's plan was probably going to be that if they didn't, you know, hit so many injuries, uh throughout the season, I think that you would have seen them sitting like the Lakers and the Nets doing basketball. The Bills are a great example Todd's sorry, it's sorta jump on here. But your point is great, which is that I lost my survivor play on the Bills playing

the Jags. The Jags beat him nine to six. Then remember the Bill's first performance of that wins World game against the Patriots where Josh Allen didn't even run like they refused to run Josh Allen that entire game. If they run it five times, they probably win that game. You know, every time they do that. And you think about that Buffalo Bills team versus the one that we saw here last week, those are there's nothing even relatable about those two outfits, and so I just think that

that's new to us. I I absolutely agree with you that the seventeenth game is too much. It did something. I think it did something to the fiber of the league. Not to be too dramatic about it, it's six more football. I mean, think about that. If it was a baseball season, would that be another twelve games, would have a hundred and seventy four games season, Where if it was an NBA basketball season to be an additional what six more games games? It's a tremendous amount more more. You know,

it's too much anyway, it's six times. It's not even ten. It's six. Isn't it one game divided by seven? Yeah, so that's it's not it's not even. It's not either. It's not eleven ten percent of six team might get it's eleven one point six. Yeah, he's right. What are you talking about? Todd is right? Six team? So five is eight? No, if you read six percent is about eleven or twelve, it's about ten ten and a half. It's not twelve. Sorry for making it. It's three quarters.

I made it seven point five to me because you're all about math and charisma. Sorry, ten point six point six charisma, charismatic believe can you place? Of course? And I have another follow up that I want to ask you. This is what Chris loves when we don't get to the picks. Ye, Chris opinion. I wanted Chris's opinion on this too, because I bet you he has an opinion. I remember you saying that you used Buffalo against Jacksonville because you thought they were for gazy. I thought, who

was phazing? And you thought that. Have you changed your opinion on that? No? I think I was. I think I'm correct. Buffalo has Buffalo has had the easiest schedule in football, like they have played if you go through it. This also gets back to my Tennessee Titans point, which I think I made this morning on a number scape, which I think is the biggest sort of under like

not talked about enough story in football this year. Like if Tom Brady winning the Super Bowl first year away from New England was the big story in football last year. I think if Tennessee wins this week, if they lose this week, different story. But if they win at least get to their championship game. I think the biggest underrated story in football is the Tennessee Titans being the number

one seed. This relates back to the Buffalo question and and the fact that the market still hates them is a fascinating point to me because I don't remember a number one seed that has been this disrespected. Because usually if if a team like this, by the way, there's only one team like it's a by right now these days, the fact that Tennessee ended up with the number one seed, if people underrate them, usually the knock is, ah, well, they didn't play anybody. No. In fact, they not only

played everybody, They beat everybody, right. They beat Buffalo, they beat San Francisco, They beat the Colts twice, they beat the Rams, Uh, they beat the Chiefs, And then the other knock would be like, oh, well, maybe the teams they played had all the injuries. No, it was Tennessee who had all the injuries, right, they had their best player was out nine weeks and their second best player

was out four weeks. And I think so, And that's that's I think how people it's a fascinating story that people still hate on them, hate market wise, whereas Buffalo now currently at the moment people love. But they played nobody, I think. I think it's the most interesting thing about the NFL this year. Why did you say they played nobody? Look at their strength in the schedule, it's one of

the worst. They went to Kansas City. But when it collectively because because the Jets are so bad, Yeah, because they played the Jets twice, the Dolphins, I'm just doing the math. Tampa Bay, they played Tampa Bay, they played Indianapolis, obviously, they played Tennessee, they played Kansas City, they played uh, the very vaunted Woofties. You say, who they beat, I'm joking are not very good. Um, but yeah, they beat a couple of good teams. You understand the pole. Yeah,

I understand. If I just don't think that I would say they had they had the worst, the easiest schedule in the league. Well, someone, I mean someone on the show today said they did have a thirty second straight schedule. They do, but I think I think strength the schedule is completely overrated and played you How can you factor? You have to factor and when you played each team and that's who we played quarterback that game, and who

was playing and what their situation was. And then if you try to tell me that a bad team or a bad team playing their best game is factored in, if you played in that situation, the same as when you play a good team playing an off game that they didn't show up on. How do you factor and quantify that? No, there's no question that it's not a

clean stat right what I'm saying. I just find that because it Mike started with the Buffalo foo gazing mean, listen, I made the point before the team that played Jackson Mill, the team that played the first game against New England doesn't look anything like this team now. Now it looks like if they just hey, they commit to Josh Allen doing what he is, how he's impossible to defend. Well, the Bills if they beat the Chiefs and Tennessee beat Cincinnati be a road favorite. NFC Yeah, gets back to

the way to make it. Can I ask you guys a question because this is something I see all the time, and you can actually take advantage of this and in game. And I want to know if you guys look at this UM. A couple of years ago on a numbers game, I mentioned that teams would start to get smart about not getting a first down and goal at the nine or ten yard line. There's all kinds of data to show it's much harder to get a touchdown on first and goal from the nine or ten that it is

from first and goal from the three and four. I am noticing this more and more because when you have a team you need to score and the guy gets tackled at the ten yard line, I immediately go, damn, we're not gonna get a touchdown, right because because you're its first and goal at the ten, you're gonna make some stupid play to the sixth and then it's three players to get it in from the six. It's a disaster. The second second goal running play from the eight skills

it's so brutal, so so so here's the thing. You can actually take advantage of this an in game, because I don't think they're sophisticated enough to like, let's say, as the team is driving and they give him a four point five expected return on this drive when they get first and goal to ten versus first and goal at the four, I don't think they adjusted properly, so

you can't take advantage of this in game. I don't know what you guys think about this, but I wanted to hear what you guys thought about it because I am always of the opinion when I don't want them to score, please don't be for please don't be first

and goal from the flour. I agree one. But the only the only reason, the only other thing I remember about our conversations on the numbers give about it, though, is that Todd thought the teams would get hip to it and try to like game Like if Justin Jefferson has the ball and he's running it like the twenty and he sees an opening, that's like at No, I know they won't do it, Gilly, because you're probably right, they're not smart enough. But if they were really, really,

really smart. You would think that they would do that so that they could get a first down at the sixteen to give them a better chance. Is that not crazy? I think it's It's much more important than people give it credit for it. Todd, I think the rules committee should take a look at a rule where if there's pass interference in the end zone and a team has the ball at the thirty yard line or further out, they have the option of first and goal at the

ten or half the distance. The team would rather have first, ten at the fifteen, the first and goal of you know what I thought you were gonna say when they fumbled the ball out of the end instead of in the stupid thing? Are you joking Mikey about that? Or do you not see that? This? This? What would you rather have? If you were the head coach? Would you take first and the first and goal with the fifteen? For sure? First and goal with the first and goal

with I'd much rather have it? What do you guys think? I agree with everything you agree? I agree every I agree completely. It's what And by the way, never one time in any broadcast in the history of Proer College has anybody ever made this point. Not once That's why I'm not an announcement because exactly why you're not hired.

There again, they're against fat people and they won't put me on even though these great insights but here, but here, The real truth is, as soon as my guy gets tackled first and goal with the ten, I'm about to cry. You know, I know I'm in trouble. It is unbelieved. God, I have the exact same thought in my head. I'm like, oh, this isn't gonna go. Well, Todd, at what point do we start with the picks? Right now? We barely started the podcast because Todd, I thought, Mike, you can make fun.

But I thought this was some insightful discussions. Even what you had to say, I thought was because because there is never gonna shut up. We have four games, two on Saturday to on Sunday. So we've decided collectively, I believe we have that we're reducing it to two best bets. Yes, because because go to three is nonsense. So two best bets uh Las Vegas Chris here first of two. I'm I'm completely unprepared here. Okay, sorry, whatever you've got. What do we have on Saturday? You know what I like?

I like just like a pop up podcast on your You don't understand what my life's like without my BlackBerry. I feel naked for got his BlackBerry today, just explained, Are you kidding, Chris? Of course I have a black but you want us to go around and get back to you. No, no, I'm okay. You know on Saturday. On Saturday, I like San Francisco. It Uh, it actually

looks too easy, it really does. I realized that San Francisco have been on the road for a bunch, and um, I like the way that they rebounded after they left it all on the table to get into the playoffs, because if they were gonna have a letdown spot, it was gonna be last week. Obviously, we have to worry about the three key injuries in the game, but it looks like for the most part they're they're headed in

um metrically. Uh, we all know green Bay sort of in the Tennessee category of always overperforming their metrics, and it kind of just I've said it before, it green Bay plays uh football games like I shoot pool, where you know, I goof around until I can make the balls or until I have to do something, and then I do it. So I look like crap, and I performed like crap, and then if I get an opening,

I take the opening. So uh it seems like that's how green Bay plays, and uh San Francisco rates higher than green Bay on my metrics, and giving them six points in a game like this, I mean with the coaching they have with Samuel and uh KIDDI they have me have been using Kiddle lately. You know, he's been a nothing burger. I just think, are you worried about Jimmy? Yeah, of course I am. But you know, it's not like you're you're you're you know obviously, Uh, you know, Fields

has to go in there. At least he's had some success, He's got some time in there, and uh he's not going to be completely virgin to the situation. But uh, the I just think six points is just, you know, ridiculous in this matchup, especially with how many times green Bay just lets people hang around, hang around, uh you know a lot. They had a lot of close calls this season, and uh, I just don't think that they I think San Francisco is good enough to stay with

them there. They should be running the ball down their throat the entire game, and uh, I know San Francisco secondary is vulnerable, but I just see that that six points is going to make the difference, and it's not gonna surprise me to see San Francisco win. But you know, primarily this is based on my metrics, which you know,

I used fifty five different inputs on it. So I'm not gonna pull out, you know, a handful of of stats at any time and say well they're number one in this, number two in this, because you know, I like to merge them all together and I think it's a culmination of a lot of things. So that's my feelings on that game. So San Francisco plus the six six Todd yes, six, And we're still waiting to hear. As Chris said on Bosa on Warner, Jimmy GE's got

the injuries, Mikey, what's your first? Can I give my second? Because it's the same as Chris is the forty niners. Um we've got on our show, odds on sort of revolutionized Visa and that we do a segment where I'm all guests is the lines and and for well some might copy it now, but for division a weekend, I'm all guest three and a half for this game as the number, and I didn't think he was that far off.

I knew it already though, you know, I know what did I. By the way, so Felka, Felika and I had this thing while the Niners were beating the Cowboys. Felika said three. I said no, it's three and a half or four? He said four and a half. And then when the injuries started coming, were like, oh, we gotta throw this out the window, but yes, to give

it a difference. In um in her self titled debut solo album, The Miseducation of Lauren Hill, the first track released was Everything Is Everything, which really described the Cowboys and forty Niners game in in Dallas on Sunday. Everything you expected happened. Forty Niners had a creative, effective running game, Dak performed small on a big stage, Jimmy g turned the ball over at a critical time, and Mark McCarthy's game management reared its ugly had everything you would have

predicted happened him. The forty Niners absolutely dominated the game. If he hits I you they win by three touchdowns? Right, And I think that he doesn't throw that pick. That sort of shook his confidence. Um, But I look at it this way. Here's how I analyze this game. On that day where we celebrate the Carpenter's son's birth, Cleveland went into green Bay and despite for Baker mayfield interception with the Jewish bird, Jewish had a chance. Well, minor

Prophet had a chance to win that game. Now tell me this, Tom, and I'll ask you. Would you rather have Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G. Would you rather have the Cleveland running game or the forty Niner running game? Push? Would you rather have the Cleveland defense or the forty Niners defense. I don't think you can argue. You could argue the first two are Push, maybe Jimmy G and Baker, But look, I think they're much better team and Cleveland, by all right, should have won that game. Green Bay's

been unimpressive down the stretch. I think it's way too many points. I'll take the six, He'll take the six, and it's sliding down to five and a half. We just went to five minutes. Can I jump in and give my number two? I'm on the San Francisco forty plus six. I this this defies when we have three people goring on the same game. It gets ugly here.

But for all the reasons stated, and yes I know about the injuries, and if that turned here towards the end of the week, then obviously that would be an issue. But just based on what we're just talking about, the guesses of the line during that game, this is this is too much. It's just too many points for a Packer's team. That by the way, you brought up the Cleveland Browns that last game of the regular season where

Baker Mayfield through the the pick to Resul Douglas. It was his fourth pick of the game and Green Bay held on to beat Cleveland. The image of Aaron Rodgers standing on that sideline watching helplessly to see how that game played out, and you thought to yourself at the time, who are the teams in this league built to beat the Packers specifically also at Lambeau. They're all in the a f C except for one right Indianapolis, Cleveland, Tennessee, big running games. The only team in the NFC was

the Niners. Another reason why the Niners coming back in Week eighteen to beat the Rams was everything for these postseasons. So San Francisco for this postseason, San Francisco is my number two DoD Okay, I'm gonna go with um the under in that game, under forty seven in that game as my second pick. I'll just start with that game. Also, like you guys did, I like under forty seven in

Green Bay and San Francisco. Green Bay plays from what I'm told, the slowest pace in the NFL, meaning, you know, they take the longest time before they snapped the ball. I think the Niners also are gonna want to protect Jimmy with all his injuries and try to slow the game down. Also, I was really impressed. Look, I like the Niners defense all year, but I really like what they did going into Dallas. I think they'll be able

to slow Aaron Rodgers down a little bit. And you know, forty seven still a decent amount of points in an NFL game. I'll take under forty seven, you know, and you're in uh final and uh and you get the W. I just think that there's gonna be a lot of running in this game and and a slow paced game. Again, I don't think they're gonna let Jimmy just throw it all over the field, knowing that he can blow up in in in you know, at any moment Chris number two for you, sir, What do I have to go again?

You don't want to go again? No, I'm debating Mikey and I want to see if we match on one end to you want me to go first? Do you want to go first or number one? Well, you have the lead, so I haven't written down already, so I'm not changing anything. I got the Tennessee tight. Yeah, there we go. That's my guy. I think this might be as big a mismatch and this round is. I thought Tampa and Philly was in the first round. It's wow,

that's I honestly think. You know, we we've We've come to say also that the whole field advantage doesn't mean as much in the NFL as it used to. We quantified it at three points back in the day. Now it's less. I actually think we sort of get away from that in the playoffs a little bit. I think home field still matters in the playoffs. And I think the return of Derrick Henry, despite the fact that I had ed fang on the power rank on the numbers get me yesterday and he talked about how did you

hear that? He talked about how Dante Foreman's average per carry and his yards after contact are relatively sane. And I just I just pushed back on something like that. And I had Jeff Schwartz on this morning, and as a former offensive lineman, he just talked about it goes, yeah, we blocked the same, but knowing that you have this guy that can just break one at any given moment, there's just a different mindset to it all. I think the Titans, again dumptailing back to the earlier comments, I

think they are the most criminally underrated thing going. I think the Bengals. I love the Bengals. Look who doesn't love Joe Burrow, But I do think they're a year away. And while watching that Raiders Bengals game last week, I started to think to myself, I don't know if I would mind the Titans playing the SAP Titans futures. I don't know if I would mind the Titans playing this Bengals team. I think the Titans defense is going to

really rise up. I think Derrick Henry is going to gain a ridiculous amount of yards in this game, and I think the Titans are going to quietly dominate. I think it's gonna be the most home home game of the weekend, and I think the Titans win going away. And by the way, Gilly, did you know that in the last eight games, Cincinnati has only played one legitimate road game. All the other six games were at home. One game was at Cleveland when they didn't try to

throw that one in the garbage. The only game that was on the road, and that entire series of the last eight games was at Denver where they squeaked it out because of the last second first half field goal when Fangio messed it up and they end up winning

fifteen to ten. So all this pro Bengals thought process is based on a on a home games, Gil, when you were away, Um, I asked the question of Todd and Frank Schwab because I think this this game features the only two viable Coach of the Year candidates who you would vote for if you had a vote. To me, it's not really close. I don't think it's close. I think I've always said who he overcame all those injuries, got the number one seed, and I get it that

the Bengals from preseason numbers overperformed more than anybody. I said to French Swab, what about the argument the Bengals were one that win their division. He said, so they were miss priced. What does that have to do with the coach of the year? Well, and Vrabel's mother's Japanese. Abel's married to a girl that was a year behind me in high school. She was it's one of the best volleyball players in the country that she would you got a scholarship to Ohio State and that's where they

met Jen Bolen. But they have a terrific family, not a blend. Sorry you ready, you ready, Chris will let you know what the other three games, Todd, we're only doing to Okay, I'll pick a different game, you know what. I'll go with the Rams here. Okay, that would have been my number three. I don't like the way Tampa Bay is basically backed in you know, my metrics. U. They Tampa Bay played a pretty easy schedule for the last quarter of the season, and they still rank near

the bottom. I have them thirty uh over those over that time period on my metrics and uh you know. Meanwhile, you've got the Rams, which they haven't been uh uh top ten during that time period, but they have shown some improvement. I worry about their inconsistencies and stuff. But you know, when you look at Tampa Bay from last year, they weren't expected to run the table. They got so lucky.

They benefited from a lot of luck. I believe they were plus eleven or twelve fumbled by Cooke across the middle, and they don't win that game, they're out, and the Jedi mind trick on Matt Lafleur. They were pay that they were like plus ten or eleven or twelve in the turnover ratio and just in the playoffs, just in that short little stretch they got very, very lucky. And then everybody, you know, it's Brady. This Brady. They had all their miracle workers. That team is not the same team.

They're missing a lot of players, and they're dinged up. They're not in any decent form. Remember last year they went into with perfect form last year. So I have a future in them to win the the NFC. So and I don't think it's gonna win, but and and and I think we get a little extra value just with the Brady cover. Si Aura, Uh, you know how many times are we gonna hear it this week? You

can't bet against Brady? How can you bet against Brady? Well, because I'm getting an extra couple of points because that's your people, like you keep saying that. So now I worry about Stafford where they he you know, he's always hiding injuries and he had a good game last game. But they're balanced, you know, they're running the ball more. Uh, they're not relying on the past as much, and they're just very balanced. And I think it's a perfect spot for them to be able to uh uh to win.

And I believe if I'm not a mistake. And I don't have my data, but uh, you know they covered last year in Tampa Bay. They beat him up. Uh didn't they beat him up already? This see week three? They beat him in l A. So you know they match up okay, And um, you're not gonna have any weather factors. You're not gonna have any major rest factors. I just think the Rams actually have the tools to give the Lions a lower draft picks and beat Tampa Bay. You think And I'll ask Gildas as well, since he

says the Rams are his third pick. Do you think they can run the ball though against Tampa No, so to be this was a referendum on Stafford because I heard you on the way, he said, it's a referendum on Stafford. Yeah, it probably is. Probably is a referendom Stafford. By the way, Jeff Schwartz is on this morning, he's entired dalysis. He goes, don't bet against Brady. That was his entire of this game. A lot of people also

said the Steeler's offensive line was okay. He also said he's He's also said he's tired of listening to you when he wants to go home. When he was on the spot, that's fine. He can he can get he can get annoyed for no reason. That's fine, by the way. So let's wrap up your second pick. We'll get Adam in here for for the the answers to all of these questions. Todd, what's your number two? It actually number one, number one, Rams was gonna be my number. That was

gonna be my number three pick. I'm not gonna take. I couldn't agree more with what Chris said that I think there's something wrong with this Buccaneers team. The only thing I'd be afraid of his Stafford. And that's the question. But my number one pick is going to be the under in the Bengals Titans game. Under forty seven and a half. Is that way you have gil on forty seven and a half, I believe yes. Let me check under forty seven and a half in the Titans Bengals game.

As I was mentioning, the Bengals have done all this positive stuff six six out of the seven games when they tried, we're all at home. The one game, as I said before, that they weren't at home was at Denver and they barely were life and death to win that game. Uh. I just didn't like the fact that they were settling for all those field goals. I think Tennessee will be able to hold them to a lot

of field goals as well. Of course, it's gonna be Derrick Henry to the left, Derrick Henry to the right, Derrick Henry to the middle, so that will give us a lot of running. So I'm gonna go under forty seven and a half in the Titans Bengals in my number one thing, All right, let's bring Adam churn Off in everybody, Adam back on the show from Canada. Where in Canada are you? And Alberta? Yeah, west of Calgary in the uh the cold of mid January winter? How

cold is it. What's the temperature? Uh? Minus eighteen celsius? Oh yeah, which is actually nice. So what is that in fahrenheight? Close to the same? I think, what is that? I think it is about the same. What is that in Kelvin, Adam? What is that in Kelvin? What you got there? Minus a teen is got me on that? One good version. Let's do a conversion of minus eighteen. Yeah. My girlfriend lives in Toronto, she's Canadian. She I tell her what the temperature is and she goes. I have

no idea what that means. Did she go back? It's not pleasant no matter what scale you use, it's just cold. Adam is the senior strategist for Covers fourteen years in NFL bookmaking, which, by the way, is a fascinating background which we've never really gotten into on the show, which we should one day. Um I saw that on Twitter? Are you talking about when he went to the Costa Rica? Like? I didn't know any of these stories about you, Adam. Fascinating. Yeah,

it was. It was a weird eight to ten years bouncing around the Caribbean, but we ended up in a good spot. And you guys, you Las Vegas, Chris and Adam, you too do a podcast together four Covers, which is called it Covers on Test Weekly. But we I'm here for you guys because I got a text from Chris yesterday it was you are a hack and that was it. That was the extent of the text. So I'm here

for you three. Thank you. I have some discussions to have about a game here that you said Westgate was the first to go to four on on Cincinnati on two different shows, and the first is this is this what your guys podcast is like? It is it is you go after each other and Adam of course does the simple handicap as well, which is his bread and butter year round. You're doing golf again this year, Adam. I've I've given up on trying to beat golf. Really.

I know who wins is at it, I know how they win at it, and I just I don't have the energy to try and compete anymore. Could you? Could

you expand all that that's fascinating, not the who, the how? Well, Okay, so there's one source of information that's like a well respected model that's publicly posted Sunday night, and for years it's been like that, but now it's become very popular, and books have caught onto it too, because there's now an agreement between the site and the book where there's lines that are displayed on site, and so it's now it's like an eight eight to ten minute race Sunday

night to beat any lines that move relative to that model. And then on Tuesday evening there is a sports book that for years of has posted golf matchups um, but now they're doing it and that's become kind of widely known as well, and so it's just a race to

beat that. So for me, I'm looking at golf this year as you're either in that race trying to compete to get your numbers before anyone else gets them, or those those models moved the prices, or you're trying to figure out where that model and that sports book are wrong and going against it the other way. But I don't have a way to do that either, and so last year I was just betting into numbers that we're just getting destroyed and it just very hard to compete.

So now with other're gonna step back calling the hotel room at three o'clock in the morning to go against the golfer that you're going against. You know, like wake come up in the middle of something with that work. Well, i'll tell you what. There's there's a story when there was when we were dealing with the COVID stuff and the tour shut down, but we had the outlaw too, were going. It was very easy to call the courses in Arizona that they were playing at and like they

were just willing to talk for and fifteen minutes. So there was a lot of really good stuff that was coming directly from the courses, unlike who was there, who was practicing shops with nothing to do all there. It's awesome. Well, that was very that was fascinating. I'm fascinated by that.

I'd actually like the bendire about that elsewhere that that's that's what I like about that though, also, Adam is what's not being spoken here is just a recognition that sometimes it ain't worth it, right, and that sometimes you know when you're beat kind of thing, not when you're beat, but you know that it's not worth it to you to expend the resources on trying to beat something that's sort of gamed, if you will second, the exact same thing happened to me six seven years ago within play

women's tennis. That was I was huge into it and then it just one season you could tell that like, Okay, this is going away, and it was just when you know, you know you can't do it anymore. Yeah, who appears on our podcasts weekly? Adam or Drew. I'm gonna say Drew Drew. Drew's everywhere. Drew is everywhere. That's not that's not a knock on Adam. No, no, no, I just but they're both prolific, prolific. Well, Adam has the his the indoor record for Alberta, I believe, not the outdoor outdoor.

Where's Adam's going? He's not going outside to do stuff. Apparently that's why we're gil The conversion is negative half degree fahrenheit. Oh my goodness, thanks zero. To think about Drew before we continue bashing the cold. In like twenty fifteen sixteen, there was a huge group chat of like a lot of people that are now like on shows that they've got their own like network deals or anything, that have sort of progressed, and like he was in there,

I was in there. There were other are people that we've all seen on shows too, and it's weird, like everybody kind of knew each other before there was really like a content space around betting, and everyone's just kind of like progressed in their own direction and so like it's it's amazing to see what he does and how much success he's had. But it's fun to remember, like we all kind of started together in like the spot, but with Gil, you your show has been around for

more eleven twelve years, like very much. You've been one of the pioneers and that so it's like fun and everything's kind of coming together now. It's it's so great to think about how it's how it's all evolved. Was your chat was that tennis heavy back in the day. I think Drew told me it was wasn't it was that a different thing, a lot of tennis, a lot of football, and just like a lot of different like betting insights that were coming. It was a lot sort

of fueled offshore obviously at the time. But um now with like it's kind of evolved and everyone went their other direction once things became regulated. But it was I want to compliment you and Drew bo since we were since we're talking about both of you and Tandem before we get to your picks here, because you want to hear your top two picks. But the thing that I think makes both of you so great, if I may,

is that here's the thing with most sports betters. They're either really bad, that's first one thing right, or they're so you know, I don't know what the word is, but they're so wrapped up in their sports betting world that they're incapable of communicating what they do. They're just very sort of not asperger Z, but just there are a certain type of person that is not Their strength

is not communication. You and Drew are sharp bettors who really can communicate on a level that doesn't speak down to people, that doesn't sound like you're two above brow and I just the highest compliment I can give is that that you're able to do that. So kudos to you on that. Man, No, he doesn't. He does it as well as anybody. So I completely agree there. We want to hear your picks at them more than anything. Your your top pick divisional round this week? What do

you got? Well? I went Niners at six this morning. I was kind of stuck a lot of the week,

but I like San Francisco quite a bit. I can't I can't justify that number being that big, and the only way that I could get there is if I'm putting a lot of value into the first round, by a lot of value into going on the road for San Francisco into Lambeau and home field advantage and what that might equate to, because it seems like the injury report in general for San Francisco right now is a lot more positive than what we saw sort of Monday

morning Tuesday morning, where like this was a number that really realistically should have been for And the only reason we're up to six now is because of those like the assumed impact of those injuries, which I think will be less than we ever thought it was earlier in the week, and so I was I was pretty happy

to take six. Obviously. If there's a setback for Garoppolo, this bad is dead but plays and is healthy, um which I think he will be enough to maneuver this offense and just this matchup they have on the ground against the Packers defense. So I just think it's too many points. That makes what is that four of us now on the Niners? Todd, were you on the nighter you stayed away from that? No, he had totally stayed away from I stayed away from that. I just figured

to give something different because I'm way behind. Anyways, that's four of us on the Niners plus the points. Todd, you're mathematically eliminated. You're not way behind, Okay, I'm sorry that I'm mathematically got me, You got You're you're going to be mathematically I'd like to point out your circuit and three entry did go fifty? Thank you, thank you? How much did you win on that? And then what does that do though? What does that do for the raj bodies and the trip Teppers? What does that do

for them? They need winners on this podcast, the raj Bodies and the Trip Tappers. We love Raj Body and we love Trip Tepper, and they love Todd, who does not well some people add uh, I told you not to bet pre game in the NFL, even your you guys with your stellar seven nine and one record would not have shown a profit. My friend in games where it's at in the national Mike Mike I was talking to Mike's filthy about not yours? How dare you short

change me? Adam? What's uh? What do you like besides that? What's your number? Two? So? I think we have to go Titans Bengals here and get that discussion out. I haven't seen missed what you guys might have got into with that. Am I allowed to give out a prop or is that against the rule? You're allowed to do whatever you want. It won't count as your number two, But well you're allowed to give that out too. Okay.

So another bet that I got into this morning was Julio over forty five receiving yards forty five and a half um and the reason being because the Henry returned. So we've heard kind of in the last twelve hours for six Uh, he's sort of gonna be capped out at fifteen touches. That's kind of the limit that they're

putting on him. So there's still gonna be like usage for Foreman, But with how similar they are, I think the actual biggest impact that Henry is going to have returning is how much he's going to open up the Titans passing game. There was eleven percent of snaps this season four the Titans were played with Brown, Julio and Henry on the field, and Tannehill had like nine and a half yards per tempt relative to just over five without them. So I actually think it's a big passing

game opportunity for Tennessee overall. And so with kind of this from seven for Cincinnati banged up, they're not really going to be able to cheat, so that kind of limits them in the middle. And it's gonna put defensive backs for Cincinnati kind of on a bit of an island behind that first level of the defense. So obviously it's gonna be a sellout to stop Brown. Julio is gonna get really soft coverage because of that. So I

think it's going be a big game for Jones. Um. But I'm also intrigued by the Titans as well, although where the number is now I don't love it. And this is where Chris and I were disagreeing when it was coming to where the number is and where it might ultimately be going. So if I had to give a second bat that wasn't the prop, I would be looking at Tennessee. There we go, Tennessee. So you you, me and Mikey same exact two picks, although we had

Tennessee first, San Francisco second. And the Julio Jones thing is is interesting at him because I got ed fang from the power rank was on the Numbers game yesterday, and he was talking about how he thought that Tennessee was way overrated and that Dante Dante Foreman's rushing yards and runs after the contact or the exact are kind of the same as Derrick Henry's. And I pushed back on it. I love it, It's my guy, but I

pushed back on it. I just said, this is this is sort of the uh, the moment where analytics goes overboard to me, right, Like, I love analytics as much as the next guy, but it's sort of like Todd, you'll appreciate this. I brought up the Doctor Bob thing when he said that Kevon Looney meant more to the

Warriors than Clay Thompson did. Right, It's sort of the Potty Tang moment if you're ever familiar with Chris Rock's character Potty Tang, where the whole bit was Pootty Tank spoken jibberish and Chris Rock would ask him the three consecutive questions. He would answer in gibberish and Chris Rock will be like, yeah, yeah, no, I totally get it, and then Potti Tang would speak of the fourth answer in jibberish too, and Chris Rock will be like, what motherfucker,

what the funk are you talking about? And he kick him off the show. And I felt like the Doctor Bob Kevin Kavon Looney thing and Ed saying that about Derrick Henry and Dante Form And that's the pootty Tang moment to me where it's like, Okay, there's clearly something in that number that doesn't capture the broader point of a team sport, right. It's different in tennis or in baseball, which is an individual sport disguise as a team sport in my opinion, where when there's too many moving parts

then it becomes a little more nebulous. And so I guess, Adam, when I'm with the Julio Jones thing, isn't that exactly it that Derrick Henry somehow makes everything open up for Ryan Tannell. It's one of the aspects anyway, Yeah, this is this is not a bat on the Titans because Henry is going to be really successful and run for two hundred yards. He might he we haven't seen him

play in nine weeks. I'm not discounting that, but every snap that he is on the field completely changes how teams have to defend this offense and it just opens up so much in the past. That's exactly I agree completely. Do you can I push back against you on your whole, on your thing. We'll go ahead and ask you. I was just gonna do you think that they stick to the pitch count? Do you think that if Derrick Henry starts busting out runs that they're gonna stick to fifteen

carries if it's a tight game? Good question. Yeah. He came out after the interview yesterday, like what's the biggest difference now versus earlier in the season, And he's like, Wow, I have a giant metal plate in my foot. It's like you hear that, Like it's not like he's not there's no way. And so it's hard to say, but like if he's going wild, they might give him a

few extra touches. But it just seems like he has impact overall is a little bit overstated to what it actually means for the passing game of this offense, which I think it's more implotant Todd, You're gonna say, I was just gonna say that. I I sort of hear a little bit about what ed fan is saying I understand what you're saying, and I don't discount what you're saying.

I just think that in the running back is the one position where if you're the best running back, you're not that much better than every other great running back versus say receiver or quarterback. Meaning let's say that the the the the elite running backs are one point two in the average running backs a one, Derrick Henry say one point three five, whereas on the receivers it might be, you know, the average receivers are one the real good ones at one point two and Cooper Cups at one

point six. My my point is that running back just cannot due to the fact that he's so um. He depends so much on his line and his holes the Nase Harris situation where he gets zero holes running and if you have a good line. Granted, Derek, I'm not I'm not taking away what you're saying. I agree with what you're saying. I still think Derrick Henry and is obviously a difference maker. I just think the amount of difference is not as much as in another And I

don't and I don't disagree with what you're saying. I do think there are exceptions to the rule, and I think in the case of Derrick Henry, you have a guy who has more potential to bust out long ones in a way that he actually is a sort of unicorn. I see you nodding, Adam, Yeah, good, Todd. I I agree completely, but Gil, like you're saying, so, it's like

Henry's probably the exception. Now, maybe Dalvin cooked to an extent, but then in the past, it was like when Zeke was like prime Zeke, you mean, when he could run sort of built around him, he was worth a lot more than an average running back ever used to be. And then it was like Adrian Peterson back with the Vikings nine, ten years ago, whatever it was now that

was kind of the exception. So there's always like exactly right, but there's always like one or two guys at the most the season for running back where the offense is just so built around what they do. In this case, it's the Titans with play action. It works with any running back, it doesn't matter who's back there. But for whatever, just that big playability Henry has just opens up play action that much more and how much the Titans depend on it. I think it's it's like the exception in

the league. Right. No, No, I totally agree with what you're saying about making it more able to throw because the other team's gonna key on on Henry. But I just meant that, so I guess yeah, to that extent, it helps the overall offense a lot, of course. Yeah, I want to ask uh, We're not gonna ask the normal two questions I think, but I want to ask sort of three here at the end. One when our teasers, we have to do our teach our teasers of the week. Okay, yes,

our teaser up. Sorry, thank you. Todd goes first. Todd, you go first. Under what's the over under on how many times Deal will mess up the format in a twenty week mega pod season. Well, he messed up the format more than twelve and a half or lesson Twoman, I put it about twelve and ten and a half every other week, every other week. I have no brain anymore. I really, I'll take the over. But I mean you don't. You don't work enough. I mean you're only on the

air a couple of times a day. That's it. Um, so first, because we're gonna be I'll go with the teaser. I'll go with the teaser of the buff Bills plus the eight and a half, I believe is what I'm getting. Um, you know, just for the obvious reasons why you would want that. I also think the Bills can hang with them. And I'm also gonna go with the Rams because I did like the Rams is my third pick. I am. The only thing that I'm afraid of his, of course, is Stafford. But if i can get nine points with

the Rams, I'm less afraid. I do think, and I thought, oh, the last eight weeks, there's something wrong with the Bucks. You want with plus nine? You went with the traditional John Ferguson tweet teaser there. Oh yeah, I've got to hold my half game lead Stanford long teaser Mike the real name Musage, like the traditional John Ferguson, who apparently it was in the San Diego were told, Mikey, you want to do yours first, I'm forced to use game theory here is I'm gonna go forty Niners and I'm

gonna tease through the zero with the Titans. Because I'm already on the Rams and I'm on the Chiefs. I have to catch up with Chris. I have to catch up I only have I have two picks, and I'm an half behind. I have to catch up with them. I'm gonna I have to game theory here. Game And what Adam said is so true. Don't say that on Twitter. It's very true. Oh the ship you'll get He tweeted that tweet. All set it on our show that he

teases through zero in real life. He got, he got, he got bullied well, and the suspend turned from the network for actual equal to a d y? Yeah, like if you're a player, she qual to a d y? Or about something? What would what would what would the Jewish carpenter do? Would he tease through zero? Mikey? He he turned over the money changers tables. Uh, no, gambling, Chris, what's your niners plus twelve? I'm supposed to? I should

get mine for the purposes or a contest I'm doing. Uh, I'm doing ram Can I confirm Mikey for one second? So I write it down properly? Niners plus twelve, Titans plus two and a half Mike Yes, correct, Yes, Okay, Now go ahead, Gilly the stenographer needs to get it down. Don't give the impression that I'm the one that interrupts here please for just for impressing the guests. Um, I just wanted to get it correct. I understand. I'm gonna go, uh,

Rams Niners, Rams, Niners, Rams plus nine and Niners plus twelve. Chris, you know last year I came up with the with the a differentiate or a different way of doing the teasers with the three pointers, right, because there was no teaser that week. So there's no teaser for me this week. But what I like to do, what I've started to do, is I start with a multipurpose teaser, so I have

a specific purpose. If I've got two different games starting at two different times, I'm using that value into something else. So let's just say, uh, we'll probably get a four or four and a half on Tennessee, the way everybody loves Tennessee. You know, if you can get over that ten and a half, if you can get to like ten and a half on that and you were gonna

bet Cincinnati anyway, why bet plus four? Bet the you know, take it over that ten and treat that as an isolated wager into something else that you're already know you're gonna bet that you haven't bet later on if you like green Bay that you know, and and it's six. It's plumb, the lines plummeting as we speak. It's down to five. But if it's it's it's. If it's six, take green Bay pick into something you're betting already on Sunday. And I try, I try to use the teasers like that,

but you know, just on two teams by themselves. Obviously I would take Buffalo and in the Rams, but I don't like marrying. I think teasers are becoming a lot more difficult, as shown by our records. But I think that they can be valuable if you're using them for different purposes. If you've got one standalone game, like on the Thursday night games during the regular season, if you can move that into the Saturday, Sunday or Monday game, that's the way you use it. You make a full

unit and you can you can split it up. Let's just say, you know, uh, you know, you're you're if you bet if your hundred dollar better you you put four different bets into four you know, you put one, you know, one major bet into the first game, and then you spread it out bunks other games you're playing, you know, later on at a different point because it gives you a bailout too, because you the options to middle get off the game that gets you extra points.

They're they're just flexible, and I think the same thing bodes well. But parlay is also and you can do that actually with the alternate lines now in a lot of the a a lot of the legal jurisdictions. You know, once in a while, I'll mess around with like plus eleven and a half in one game where I'm getting nine points in one game, I'm getting five and a half in another game, and mix and match them together

in essentially creating your own custom made teaser. And then you know, that's another thing I'd like to say about Buffalo Kansas City. That's a game where I want to see what the alternate lines are. You know, that game could be all over the place, so you might find some some good value there if you're betting. If you're betting Buffalo Kansas City on the line, aren't you just an action junkie at this point? Probably because I don't know how you predict. You know, Buffalo is inconsistent, Kansas

City is more steady. Eddy um, But but but I think I could see more variants. I mean, you just don't know what's going to go there. Adam, what's your favorite teaser? If you were forced to bet one, I forced a bet one, you probably have to go same as what Chris said, Buffalo l a just numbers wise, but I'm I'm not running to bet that one. But like you said, like the variance in that Buffalo Casey game,

that that can go so many different directions. I agree it's but you know, I do want to get back to that teasing through the zero thing because I don't know whether people realize it. You're better off seeking out the alternate plus three and a half line rather than rather than teasing through the zero. You're gonna actually pay

a better price just betting that side that direction. And another reason to remember why you don't do it, Every single number you go through to one, zero, one to all five of those numbers are all less valuable than every single number you go through in a wong teaser. So think about it. You're you're losing equity every single number, and that's a lot of equity when it adds up.

And the other way to the anxiety and the other way to think about it is if you think about if you think about people who tease in other sports, how those numbers are not as valuable as key numbers in the NFL. And so what you're doing teasing through

the zero is reducing the importance of teasing in the NFL. Right, If you were playing in a contest and it was a teaser contest and you had two weeks left and you were trailing by a game you didn't but I'm gonna ask you about this, But you handicapped that you think Tennessee is is better by eight and this line is four, right, and so you're on Tennessee in life. But you have to tease this game through game theory? Are you better off to tease against what you handicapped

the game and take Cincinnati up to ten? Then going through the zero, well, I'm going with what if I'm secure with my handicapping, I have to go with what I'm handicapping correct, all right here, So let's do rapid fire. Last three questions. One, we'll just go around the horn here. If you had to bet aside in each of these three of the four but one that you you hated the most, that game is okay, everybody believes that Adam YouTube. Okay,

we all. Okay, Next question, rank for me from most likely to least likely the dog's winning outright, Chris, most likely to least likely. Oh, I'm gonna go with the least. I'm gonna go backward. I think Cincinnati is probably the least likely. Okay, and San Francisco, Buffalo, the Rams. I

think the Rams are the most likely dog to win. Okay, so Rams, so Rams Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Bill's Ram, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Dodd, I think the ram are the most likely to win as a dog, and then, uh, Cincinnati's least likely. I would say Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals, Bills, Niners, Rams, Bengals.

I will yeah, I will go. I will go Rams, Bills, Niners, Bengals. Okay, and then the final question, let's do that little guessing lines thing Mike for the for the championship games, and you guys can just call these out. If Tennessee hosts Kansas City, the line will be it will Obviously there are caveats, right, but let's just say it's nothing crazy happens. There's no slam dunk blowout. Let's just say it's kind of close to form and there's no major injuries. Just

play along, Toddy. Tennessee hosting can the City would be what Kansas City's favored right by? By how much? Two and a half? Two and a half? Interesting? One? One? I actually take them really, m I have some people think it's some people in Kansas City be favored by more than three? Don't you know? Tennessee did Wuffalo seven to three. The score was twenty seven to three when the two teams played each other. That has to mean something. I'm not saying it means what. It has to mean something.

Uh doesn't mean if Kansas City? I think so if Kansas City hosted Buffalo, what would that be? I mean if Tennessee you skipped over me? Oh sorry, Tennis, I'm sorry. And I thought you were like gonna say three three? Oh you will say three three? He's to some people, he's my three? Who are they? And what they say? If if Tennessee hosts Buffalo, what's that line? Chris Buffalo one? I'm saying, yea, Chris made a people, but it will be will be less than three. I'll say I want

to go less than seven. I think it's also right around a pick. I mean all these games are going to be tight. I tell you what, I'll I make it close to a pick. But if the Bills beat Kansas City, everyone's gonna want it, and it'll be a yester two and a half. Buffalo is minus two and it could hit three. All right? And if if if Kansas City or Buffalo hosted Cincinnati, what are those numbers? Kansas City and Buffalo both together, what would they be? Kansas City would be six and a half. I'm gonna

say seven, Okay, I say six and a half. You said seven two, Adam, Buffalo and Buffalo, what do you say Kansas City would be? It would be a seven even God, I even say maybe seven and a half. And Buffalo hosting Cincinnati would be six. Yeah, a little less six. I'll say six and a half. Yeah, six and a half. I'm with all you guys, all right, NFC. Last thing, green Bay hosts the um Tampa Bay Buccaneers, because that whole Brady wave is going to be in the narrative still they got by the rams two and

a half. I want to take green Bay right now? Can green Bay in the look ahead and half? Chris to and a half? You like? Do you think? Yeah? I think that's where it would be. What about if it's the Rams three and a half through the three? Yeah, okay, all right, Chris, you gotta thought. I think that that is three? I do too. And the Packers will crush the Rams at home and the last one, the last one will be if the Niners half full, sorry to sorry to body. If the Niners travel to Tampa Bay,

what will that be? And then the Niners traveling to the Rams. What will both of those? What about Florida State against North Florida Festival? Now, Diners get three at Tampa Bay, get two and a half in l A. Okay, right, numbers, good numbers. Okay, you like that? Can I say one thing? And I have to h I was sitting talking to Matt Metcalf in the book Friday about the National Championship Game. Did you tell the people who that is? Mike? People

don't know who that is? Tell them? He said, he has a role in the sports book here at runs a sports book. He said, if Georgia had Saban as their head coach and Alabama had Kirby, he didn't make that game thirteen and a half. Come on, I'm just telling you teen and a half that's how much better Georgia was talent wise. You know what the name of that you know the name of that segment should be hyperbole,

do you think so? Yes? What about the what about the insurance salesman's saying the market when the market with tolerant, He's just saying that's what his true number in the game would be. I gotta run. Thanks. Thanks all right, guys, I think we've done all we can do. Gentlemen, there we go. We got all our picks. Thank you Adam for coming after your shows. I appreciate it. Man, Thank you for doing that to your C B A m v P special. Let's see Todd what Todd is? Uh?

Todd is alluded to. Todd hates more than anything when we have segments on on the network. Doesn't have to be my show. I do less of it than everybody else does. Todd hates when we devote entire segments to awards markets. He hates that. Hated to do because John is this year. You know, he wiped us three times this year. That obviously everyone knows that the more you wipe, the more chances you have this year. So it's like ridiculous, but you have to understand that, but we have to

fill a but jillion hours of con tis. I understand about schedule and still stay fresh. It's very impressive. Well I'm about to die at him though I'm not fresh. Yeah, content eyes maybe fresh, but I'm about to die. Yes.

I leave everything out on the table. Then I go home and I go into a fetal position in the corner of my apartment by the way, before we leave, Can I just ask you, Adam, aside from golf that you feel like it's unbeatable because of that, what other sports throughout the NFL, because we all know how hard that is. What other sport would you like take a look at it and go, wait, wait too much. I can't do this. It's too hard for me. What what would you say besides golf that you said is basically

just a race. Yeah, I got you. Um, I just because of how I operate now, I anything that's like really heavily model driven, and I know most of it is.

But like, like if you take something like like I was saying, the w T A in play specifically, so like five six years ago, like the like you would take like someone like Anna Ivanovich for example, who was just deadly when she was down to set, like one of the best comeback players ever, and like that was always super underpriced and not accounted for, and then a lot of data started coming out and like that disappeared immediately, and so you were like a lot of those really

good like subjective angles in tennis, especially in play that you could bet a lot of, and now like most of those are completely gone. So like that's where it was, and now it's it's getting really difficult. So like tennis would be one for me personally, a lot of other people still have success skill, you have a ton but it's just for how I approach it. I find tennis

now really tough. Um I would say hockey is another one that with like the last three to four years, with like the advanced stats that have come in and expected goals is just brutal. And then it's not like like the Premier League and like bigger soccer leagues were ever beatable like those kind of but we're always the

most difficult. But now you're seeing that ripple effect into like smaller country domestic leagues too, where it went from like you could have just like a really basic like knowledge at like a player level and just based on lineups and sourcing news. In a lot of these smaller domestic leagues, you could find advantage is just knowing like twenty to thirty key players and valuing if they're in

and out. That's all completely gone now too, because you can do so much at a player level and do it so quickly that it's so difficult to compete with that now as well. Geez, Adam, when you put it that way, do you ever have thoughts in your head ever? Like I gotta hang like, I don't ever. I think there might be a shelf life to all of this.

Every day it's like what they There was an article on the New York Times about how AI is destroying poker because AI has now taught poker players to play the optimum strategy in poker, and I think, really, what Adam saying, that's kind of leaking over now into the more information that's out there into these sports make them

more and more unbeatable. Well, so a good story. I had Matthew Davidal who I'm sure you guys know, um, I was chatting with him on the daily show We're doing now, and he we were talking about like in play markets in the NFL, and we got into the win game, specifically the Buffalo New England game, and I was asking him, and I was like, how quickly did it take you to adjust to what was actually going on the field, because he's writing the programs that set

the prices for Circa and other books and stuff, and he's like, we adjusted to it very quickly. But then I was asking him and I was like, what's your biggest weakness in a spot like that? And he's like, it wasn't the win direction or the team's going or adjusting for the quarter prices or anything like that. But he's like, it was actually it took the longest to adjust to the mac Jones in play completion problems because it was just so far out there. Couldn't get to

a number and justify that price. And so when we're going back and forth, he's like, it's getting to the point and kind of what I was saying with golf, where it's like there are these models that are out there and you have to figure out like where they're gonna be wrong or what the weaknesses rather than like trying to find angles within the games. But so like in a case like that, it's like here's this event where it's like, there's the wind game and it's completely

altering everything that's going on. But they're like, there's the main event that everyone focus on. It's windy, I'm gonna bet the under, like that gets priced in right away. But when you like the ripples that come from that, where you're going to like, okay, there's the wind, which means is it's going to be under Well, then there's

the quarter prices. Well, then there's the field goal props. Well, then there's and you have to go so far out now to where it's like, well, actually the wind is going to impact all of this, but I'm gonna bet under completions on this quarterback because of it. And that's where like these these pricing models are becoming the weakest, and so that's where you kind of have to hunt now.

But it's just it's so hard to like creatively think to get to that level which in something like but I still think it's brutal, but Adam, I still thinking football sometimes because they have to be wedded to the pregame number so much, and because there's not that many games that the modeling is taken into account. There are games that are just off. Like for instance, the Rams Arizona Cardinal game, it didn't matter what they're gonna make it.

If you see that early enough, you can catch it, like if you can recognize that this game is not the way it was supposed to be. I still think there are edges in in the uh in the in game football. I mean I don't know, I think there is two. I think in case like that though, is like if you look at the pregame scenario, I think there's a lack of data on a team leading by twenty one, nothing in that dominating of a fashion at home to like accurately set that number. Whereas like, what's that?

That's hard? I mean in that scenario, I would look more team totals is errors own are gonna score two touchdowns are more because like for instance, in that game, I had under I believe under seventeen and a half because I noticed pretty quickly after like two or three series Kyler Murray can't move the ball. I'll take under seventeen. Now, did that mean I was gonna win? Not for sure,

Because it all comes down to the garbage time. You have to be able to notice are they going to prevent because once they're going to prevent, you gotta get back on the over of your team total, you know what I mean. So you have to watch. It's like the Steeler game against Kansas City. When Kansas City was trying on defense, they could have stopped the Steelers for a hundred years in a row. But as soon as the Kansas City got ahead by enough, you're like, oh,

now they're gonna let the Steelers score. And that's exactly what happened. I think any of us who watches football could see that Kansas City went into a massive prevent defense once they got ahead seven, and I feel like that's where the edges are in realizing, Okay, how is the game fundamentally shifted? Just now? It's interesting because okay, I think you're right, but just showing how people think

about this differently. So in that scenario Monday night, I went ams team total over in the second half because to me, like a fundamental difference in playoffs versus the regular season, which I think is tough to price in play is that teams don't stop playing on offense as much as they do in the regular season, and so I think we see a stark difference of like the Bills or the Chiefs or the Rams. They kept scoring.

They didn't stop. They were still The Rams are running throwback passes in the middle of the third quarter, up three scores. You're not seeing that regular season. But like where you went to that angle of looking at the team under going the other way because of the prevent defense, Like my head went the other way where it's like, well, this team is going to keep scoring, and it's betting on a team that you maybe not. You're not making

that bet in the regular season. And let me interject because that that's an interesting sort of nuanced conversation where Todd you're talking about recognizing defenses, and there's a difference of opinion even there in terms of how a team will play it playoffs, regular season. What about something much more defined, like in a baseball game, will blowout baseball game where they've run out of pictures and they throw in a skill position player to go on the mound.

Those in game totals don't appear to me anyway to it. They're getting they're getting better, absolutely getting better. They were totally terrible. And we would go on seventh and he watching the book and be like I was the amount of text that get thrown around in those moments that we're amazing, but like that to me is okay, That to me is a less is a much less debatable thing, right that to everybody gets, oh, this guy is not

here to pitch. This could get ugly. Now. We've seen sometimes where they've been successful and it's always amusing, but largely you immediately go and you're like, oh, it's this is over. Like this is not adjusted as much as it should and they're getting it's I think it's a great example of it's getting better. But it's like, to your point taught earlier, it's like, you can't really adjust something like that enough, can you? Maybe you can can,

Sometimes you can't. Yeah, And that's the thing about football is like Wake Force played Army this year in college football. I don't know if you guys watch that game, but it was it was so obvious that there's there is no number possible based off the original number that can be right. B y U Virginia was another game just like that. Every single drive was a touchdown and it wasn't even hard touched on. It was like pass for twelve yards, pass for twenty five yards, past for twelve yards.

You know, it was so ridiculous, and they still have to be wedded. Now they can adjust it up a little bit, but if there's three quarters of the game left and the game was a sixty, there's only forty five more points that they can can they bump at the forty eight. Sure they can make it forty eight, but they can't make it fifty eight. And that's what they should have done in some of those games, you

know what I mean. And that's where I think there's there's there's advantages, you know, especially also in the in the team totaling. If you see I won so much this year, especially against college teams team total under recognizing after two or three sets, this team is averaging one point five yards of play, they're done, and the other team is not going to let them get more than two touchdown that you could get over fourteen and a half. You almost have to take the under fourteen and a

half in that scenario, you know what I mean. And of course there's things that can be the two point conversion, there's different things that can can hurt you, but I really feel there's there's there's angles there. Yeah, And that's like if you're talking like a new better who's just starting now, like they're never going to have the same experience as they're here eight nineteen. It's gone forever, and

so it's like, where do you start now? Aside from having the obvious, like as many books as you can, as many prices compare to get the best number, it's like find the games with the situation that's like the outlier and that's weird where something's going on. It gives you kind of like these fringe ripple scenarios off of some event that changes the game, because that's where you're gonna find value in today's betting world. And and even and even then, it's right, there's no still no guarantees.

There was you know, Arena sable Banka last night. I was on air, so I didn't get I wasn't part of this, but apparently she had the yips with her serve in the first set last night, and people were going nuts like, oh my god, you can't but she lost the first set sixth one, and then of course she like you know, she regrouped that she won the match. I'm sure a lot of people lost their shirt on that too, you know, thinking oh well, you can't win

them all, you know, But that's my point. Right, Even then with all the advantages we might be able to identify, the gig is you're not gonna win them all, right, that's it. It can still come back and hurt you. And and a bet that you weren't even gonna make

him the first place. So I would say you put yourself in like an average Better Shoes who's like trying to do that, and it's like they going they bet a season of NFL, and like really, when you're betting the NFL and an average Better Shoes like you don't you you feel completely out of control, like you don't know what you're betting on. But like what you just describe, if like more people looked for that and bet on things like that, Like that's the type of betting scenario

and angle you remember for a long time. You feel that there's some like that you can actually like put value on and at least at something, whereas so much of this is this team is eight and two on Tuesday's like all those trends, and it's just it's so much more valuable to think, like what you're saying is I'm glad you brought that up at him because it triggers and this is probably how we should edit it

because the trend thing. How many people in mainstream media or maybe in gambling media brought up the fact that the Arizona Cardinals were aid and one on the road going into that game against the Rams, right like it was the thing everybody said. And then I let me, let me ask for your prediction. What percentage of those people that brought it up before the game never mentioned it once again afterwards? It's gotta be them. I'll take

the over, Yes, take the over. That says everything. It's fascinating. I do want to say. I do want to add though, when you're talking about finding advantages, I think the the sport that sticks out like a sore thumb with volatility and and nuggets to be found is mm A. And I know m m A is not a people's wheelhouse in general, and quite frankly, I had no interest in it either, and I don't. I mean, but let me tell you that those markets are all over the place,

and you if you there, it'll close up. But it's gonna take a while. There's just so many fights and there's so much volatility. Uh, there's value to be found in there if you put your time in there, except if I get to the point where after that, m m a, I'm quit in gambling because I can't watch it. So I mean I could agree with you. I'm short, Chris. There's there's tremendous value and but it's just like it's just unwatchable for me. I just can't watch two human

beings brutalizing each other. I would much rather they put helmets on and do it at the goal line. Thank you, thank you. I wish that, guys. I appreciate it. We gotta run u Adam churn off from the simple handicap doing all this stuff. It covers. You said you have a daily show now to Adam. Yeah, we're experimenting with some stuff for the playoffs, so we just have it's basically is it. It's described Turnoff and Friends, but it's titled Covers Daily, So I'm just having having people. That's

what Mikey calls the numbers game. He goes killing friends in the morning, So that I take that very kindly. I like that. Actually, uh, I think it was a knock, but I actually enjoyed that. Um and then the one in you and Chris do it every Thursday during NFL season. You do your football post. You're You're everywhere man everywhere. Yeah, I got it, got busy down the stretch. I'm waiting for three more weeks ago. Me too. I'm the same way and listen, by the way, I just want to

say this. I am one grateful. It is the life I always wanted. So I'm not. I don't want anybody for some like yeah that I'm that, I'm in any way complaining Las Vegas, Chris, Chris, Chris. Before we leave, Chris, play tennis. I used to, okay, because you could come out and be part of our Las Vegas Invitational. I might just do that. But you know, raquetball ruined my

tennis game. So oh interesting. When I was a kid, I played a lot of tennis and I wasn't that bad um and then I played racquetball as like a teenager, and that ruined my tennis. Get maybe a conversation, you've got the you've got the headband hair. I could see he was a great nineteen seventies top ten tennis play and I had the tennis rand get throwing down pad the oh no to the invitation the wooden racket, tube

socks rolled up would be awesome. Wants to play me again in the March and I made the line eleven and a half. Hey, Tod, can I just wrap it up and we get this conversation Las Vegas, Chris, thank you for being here. Multiple contest winner, always a contender in every contest. Seems to find a way to win, whatever year. Todd wished Evans mom's cork addict skill. Alexander, thanks for listening. Best of luck Divisional round. Thanks for listening to the Megapot