Beating The Book: 2022 French Open Preview

on planet Earth. He was a docked outside of My York at the time and he's like, I can't make it this one. I'll be back for Wimbledon. But we have Drew Dinsick here from the Deep Dive podcast and of course the Bet the Edge podcast from NBC Sports, the former with with Andy Molitor that he does the latter with Sarah Pearlman. It's Drew Dense at Whale Underscore, Kapper, How you doing man? Thank you for well, Gil, thank

you for having me. As always, we get to put an exclamation point on what has been an absolutely awesome play season so far in Europe with the French Open coming up here and Uh, yeah, no, no, no better way to kick it off than doing a nice little both women's, men's and women's draw preview with with the listeners of the megapod. Yeah, we and we hope that the draw actually appears before our eyes here momentarily because I sort of jumped the gun on our recording time.

But apparently whatever the as you said, whatever Lifer says, get to it whenever they get Yeah, well, we'll have ourselves a draw. But we can talk about this broadly. You and I have done it on the radio side earlier this week, but let's just talk about it broadly, and I'll just start by saying, this is, you know, unlike with the previous tournaments that we've done this year, uh, specifically the Australian Open, this was one we're futures that I've made and I'm sure you two I've made them

long before now. So I just want to apologize right in Advanceam. If this is the show you're landing on to talk French Open, we already have numbers on Ego that are way better than exists now. On the women's side, we already have numbers on Carlos Alcoraz that are way better than exists now on the men's side. But Drew, I'll just start with that question. Let's just start with the women's side. Egos Fiatec, who has won one major UH French Open famously around these parts. She is getting

into Stephie Graft Monica Sellis territory. She is either plus one hundred or a ticking to minus money now to win this tournament, to win her second major. She's won twenty eight matches in a row. This is her surface. She's one. I want to say it's forty seven out of forty eight sets. Don't hold me to that exactly, but it's somewhere in the forties. She only dropped one set along the way. I believe it was to Mila Sampson Nova. I believe was who got her on one set. Uh,

can you recommend anybody else in an outright? We'll get into quarters and we'll get into matches. But is there anybody else in an out right you could like legitimately recommend to somebody? I mean, we'll find some quarter prices

for sure, but not to win the tournament now. Um I given her current form and her you know, my my ratings on IgA, I would make her no worse than minus four in any match in any syst you know, step of the way, and realistically, UM, in the first handful of matches, when she's going up against qualifiers and some of the lower ranked players, you know she's going to be in the minus two thousand's range for you know,

match by matching. UM. It's not often you see that in best of three tennis because things are a little more random as often you see that a women's tennis because things are a little bit flatter in general. UM. But she is performing at a level that is all all universe, and you know, the comp of stephie Groff I think is completely fair, especially because two years ago EGA completed a dominant performance at Rolling Garrows in the fall that you had to go back to and stephie

Groff to find any comp for UM. And so it's not like this is this is not like this is unbelievable. Like the Radakanu run last year at the U S Open was out of nowhere. And you know, if it now feels even more um like was that a fluke? The EGA run was not and is now being you know, clearly backed up with a number of titles here and I guess if you want to take a step back a little bit about sort of the strategy of playing

futures for the UM. You know, for the Slams, you can get away with waiting untill the draw for the Australian Open, even for the U s Open, because player form is huge question marks for both of those tournaments for different reasons. Um, huge question mark on the UH you know, for the player form at the u US Open because players are tired at the end of a

long season. Huge question about player form for the Australian Open because everybody's had a haul off season and some players used it to rest and recuperate, others you know, sharpening their games. So um, those two tournaments are fine to wait on UH and and Wimbledon. You know, the grass season is so compact that you don't really need to be way out ahead of the market on those numbers just because you know that it's it's just a

it's a blip on the calendar. The clay season is the opposite, like you need to be very carefully following pricing throughout the Indian Wells really starts to set the market for this because the conditions are similar. Because it's sort of the um, you know, the beginning of what is a concentrated stretch of everybody playing every week with

high stakes and so um. You know, we're watching Indian Wells pretty carefully and you're picking up, you know, signs at that time that Ego's form was looking very, very good. She came off of a decent, you know, decent oceanic swing, decent time in the Middle East, but in an Indian Wells she was absolutely ripping um. And it was like, Okay, if she's playing this well here and builds on this through the spring and an early summer into um into

Rolling Carrol, she's gonna be tough to be. And of course, at that time, who was the market favorite. It was not Ego, It was Ash Party. She was at the top of the market for most of the month of March. And you know, lo and behold, You're sitting at your computer one day and the news comes across the ticker Ash Party has suddenly retired from the sport of tennis. And I think everyone who follows the sport closely who was watching him betting Indian Wells did the same thing.

Run to the book, you know, and and click as many times as you could you get to win the French Open because that was the two woman race that became a one woman race and that Yeah, And honestly, like at the time, I think best prices were four to one, and uh, I got down what I could get down at that time. And I think if that hadn't happened, I may even be in a better position right now because I kind of I didn't keep adding

to my my spot. Right, the price moved, it gets shorter, and I'm looking at two to ones and I'm like, I got four to one in pocket, Why would I bet to to one? Right, That's why I didn't continue to add to that position. And ultimately now I'm angry because it's she's even honest to win this tournament, and I'm looking at my before though, like, God, I should have more, Like why don't I have more? Like she did everything that was asked for her. At Indian Well,

she was dominant. She packed it up with the title. At Miami. I know you had futures on her at both of those stages, so you're already you know, flush at that point. Um, and then right into clay season, she has lost absolutely no step at all. She was so dynamic after I think maybe her best torm might have been I don't even know it was her best

torm at Hamburg or Rome. It's tough to say, um, but they were both dominant, and after Hamburg, you know, on the heels of this huge streak, I'm starting to think, well, okay, at this point, I kind of hope she uh, um, you know, gets a little bit of a break here. It wouldn't be the worst thing if she loses at Madrid and gets like a little bit of a week to recuperate, rest and recuperate here, because Madrid is a grind, you know, Madrid is a tough and she decides, okay,

they'll take it off for injury. And I think that was actually one of the best things she could have done from a strategy standpoint, because she came back at Rome and was absolutely dynamic. Her game is as advertised in terms of perfect for the surface of clay, and um, you know, I mean, you know, this is this is something we haven't seen since the eighties. Um. She's more

dominant on this surface than Serena ever was on clay. Um. And so it's uh, you know, you have to draw compared parallels to the men's tour or that you know stephie Graff in the eighties in terms of what we're seeing right now, and it's it's cool to be a part of. And you know, I had tipped to you for being way way ahead of this, uh you know, rise from Ego because um, you know, I probably I would have doubted it. Honestly, if you didn't have conviction back in the day, I would have been like, I

don't know, is this sustainable. We'll see, um, but you can't deny it at this point, she really is the best women's tennis player in the world. Then you know, there are sometimes when like there are some years when Rafa was the clear best and it was not competitive, right, and that was more about his greatness, And there is a lot of that with EGA. But in my opinion, at least the women's field is weaker this year than it has been in years past. Would you agree with that?

And I would agree with that, And and to two months ago, three months ago, I would not have agreed with that. It just kind of worked out that anyway. Yeah, party retiring Hallap who had great clay numbers, right, great six month grade, twelve month clay numbers just hasn't looked good of late. And then a couple of the players who you think may it would give, you know, might give Ego trouble. I don't know if some people thought

Samolanka would she just dispatched her so quickly. I mean, we'll get to the question of if I came to you from the future and I told you, oh my god, Ega lost to somebody, who would that be. We'll get to that momentarily, because I do have one or two names in mind, just because we're spitballing, but only because we're spitballing, right Like, I'm almost forced to ask you the question just that to ask something interesting. But as far as he is concerned, I mean, honestly, Drew like,

it's probably my greatest call in any sport ever. Quite frankly, um, I mean, let's be honest. This is for those who you know miss in the details. This was the bet I made famously thirty thirty three to one for the for the French open in got paid on everyone but the one at the West Gate, which is still depending that that was, you know, And since then we've had her many times, and I've made a couple of comments hyperbolic comments on a numbers game. First and I said

she's gonna win double digit majors. That was about a year ago, because I figured she'd win about eight French this should be her second. But then you know recently she's won four w T A one thousands this year, Like that's just that hasn't happened since I want to get this exactly right, four four w T one thousands hasn't happened since Serena did in one thousands, being the

tournament level just just below the Slams. If she wins all seven of these matches, she will tie Venus Williams streak of thirty five consecutive victories from the year two thousands. So what I said earlier this year, as she was winning these tournaments and on this street was I think she's going to be the greatest women's player of all time, which is a out which is an an outlandish comment to make right because you have Martina de Rando, Lovan,

Stephie Groff and Monica Cells. By the way, just from a betting market. I give shout out to sports Odds History dot com for providing these numbers, but just French Open History and here at the I'm at the d here at Circus Sports, Ega is even money plus one.

But as far as like, who has been a pre flop favorite at the French Open in modern history as a minus number Serena talking about eventual champions Serena minus one thirty three, and before that have to go all the way back to stephie Groff minus, stephie Graff minus and poor Monica Sellis in minus one sixty three whose career was forever altered by being stabbed by a fan. And so that's the Them's the stratospheres we're dealing with

right now. That's the stratosphere we're dealing with. Uh. And that's the story with Ega, who is the odds on favorite here and should be. And what you said minus four hundred, you don't have her in less than minus four hundred in any match on clay. It is her service. She's the women's world number one. I honestly like I wanted to I wanted to weep when she became the world's number one. It was on the Ash Party retirement. But going back to that night that Ash Party retired,

so I had the same experience you did, Drew. I had plus four fifties in my pocket on ego I immediately because I was on Primetime Action. You texted me literally the minute that that show ended, which is it timed out with the into that show. I had no idea that to happen, And I was like, what you texted me? Daniel already texted me, somebody else texted me, anybody who was into tennis texted like, what is happening? Because it came out of nowhere, the world number one

ash Party retiring, although you know, out of nowhere. Ash Party had never really embraced playing tennis as other champions have, so maybe not completely out of nowhere, but certainly out of nowhere at that moment. So I had the same experience. I'm like, okay, let me quickly go around looking around town and offshore. Are there numbers better than the ones that I have or there's still some stray Egan numbers? What I found is that there weren't any right. My

experience was that there was. It was already down to three or lower plus three D or lower. And so I was like, uh, you know what, I don't know if I'm gonna add to it, maybe I'll make a decision on this later, which you know was a ridiculous thing to think what it did do for me. And we'll get to this in a bit. Is I decided while I was there checking EGO numbers, I was like, let me just see casually what some French open numbers

are on the men's side. And that was the night that I lucked into finding stray numbers on Carlos Alcaraz, who was still at eleven to one around town and nine to one, and so Ash Barty didn't have me adding to EGA. It just accidentally had had me adding to Carlos Algorrez, which was incredible, not even adding starting at those numbers of Carlos Algarez. But let me just ask you the question though about the women's side here pre draw. If I came to you and I said,

drew it happened. IgA didn't win this, she lost. Give me the player or players that you believe I'm talking about, man from the future. Man, uh, I'll go to go down the seeds here. Um, we don't even know if Krichica is going to play defend the strike strike striker Um Bodoza injured out of form. Striker Um fourth seed sacchary Um the last woman to defeat the Agan, clay

Worth noting in general plays her pretty tough. Um has kind of a ceiling when she's on that's high enough to go toe to toe with someone who's as good as Ego. So sacchary Um would be kind of the first name that fifth onst board. No, although let's circle back on onst board for um, you know, for some other market prices before we wrap this pod um sabuenca no way, plashkava, no way. Danielle Collins. Maybe Collins beat her. She got Danielle freaking Collins got her, uh somewhat recently, right,

She pop her at the Australian Open. Is that why you didn't win the Australian Open. I remember being surprised that you didn't lean now the Aussie frankly just because she was in great I thought she was in great form at the time. Yeah. I don't remember who beat her at the in down Onda, but I think it might have been It might have been Collins. It was, yeah, Neil Collins got her six four six one weird no

show from me again that that match. So I guess I wouldn't you know, I guess you have to include her to some degree just because she's going to have the confidence and she's she's a tough She's a tough matchup no matter who you are. If the if, if the day is right, U Mugar rutha way out of form, no chance on clay, Radakanu injured and out of form, Osta Penco Osta Penco has played her pretty tough. I think that's the third name that you have to put

in consideration. Even though she has been miserable on clay this season. She did get her earlier in I want to say Doha, No ego one Doha. It was the other one. Dubai. Ostapenko got her in Dubai. Osta Penco got her in Indian Wells in fall last year. UM So she guests deserves some consideration. Um And then of all of the matches that he has played on clay this year, the only time that I ever felt like she was especially under pressure was up against um Our.

Canadian Bianca Andreas showed a little bit of form in that match in Rome. And so I think that's the fourth name. That's the person I would have come with. Right again, let me just preface this again by saying we are not saying it's going to happen, But I'm just fulfilling content purposes just to ask the question if it did, who might it be. I actually think on Dressco's as good of a choice as any because we still don't know what a renewed peak form Bianca could be.

She's kind of a wild card out there. Yeah, almost certainly. I'm going to sit down for every ego match this rolling Garrow's run and have and b and be cool as a cucumber, no sweat. You know this is gonna be fun. Let's see how good she is today if there's like a semifinal draw against and ask you, I'm going to be a little bit nervous that day, me too. Yeah, and On is a little bit andre a little bit

I think would be a little bit. Yeah. I mean her game is, her game is is fun to watch and cheer four and it's different, which makes her a tough player to match up against. But the fact that you get solved that in Rome, I think should be should be somewhat of a positive sign for this tournament now,

as is an amazing form. She ought to probably be the second choice in terms of just you know, if if there's another woman in this field who can beat all the other women considering their current form, it's probably her. She probably ought to be the second, you know, second choice in the betting market, even though I don't like her chances against you get head to head, um, but I think her form speaks to a potential awesome run

on grass. And I've gotten some pretty aggressive positions going now for Ans at wimby uh in the thirty rain one plus range. So um, that's what it takes this weekend. About grabbed on thirty plus two one at Wimbledon. Yeah, I think, and I think, if I think again, she ought to be the clear second choice at Wimbledon after in my by by numbers, and she was priced in like that kind of third tier range, which doesn't make any sense at all because she, you know her her

grasp elo is best on tour. Right now, I grabbed just to let you know again back to the Stephie graph, Monica sellis theme I have grabbed since, you know, just deciding that this is the player that we always thought she would be. Kind of thing I had. I grabbed Ega at nine to one at Wimbledon, and I grabbed Ega at seven to one at the US Open just

because I wanted to have them. And you know, is are those who you know, she's never won anything on grass before, by the way, people right, never hasn't won a tournament on grass before. But at this point, is there any clay is always going to be one. He has shown great prowess on hard courts. Is there any reason to believe she's not an all court player at this point? No? No, no, no, no no. And I think what you saw from her at Indian Wells and Miami proves that that she ought to be the the clear,

clear favorite at the US Open um. And you know, just just from my neutral everybody's healthy, everybody's playing their best tennis. She's winning that US Open comfortably, in my opinion. If there's a realistic chance that she just plays so much tennis that she is a little bit more weary, a little bit more fatigued than the other women and somebody catches her by surprise, that won't be shocking. It's usually quite hot in September, and uh, you know, conditions

are not ideal. If you've kind of been grinding yourself to a fine dust throughout the rest of the season, you can get caught by surprise. But outside of that exact scenario, she's she's getting at least two slams this year in my opinion, French Open, in the US Open, um, Wimbledon's, Wimbledon's is a mystery to me. You know, we'll see how she looks on graph and as you said, it's the shortest season of all so the data is as

scarce as it comes as well. But if she figures out a way to win that, then we could be talking about an EGA slam possibility income Australian Open next year. Um, let's go to the men's side for a second here because we wait for the draw. Um. Listen. So this is obviously Rafa Nadal's domain for so many years. He's won thirteen. Like you just say that in its most ridiculous sentence ever has won thirteen French Opens. Pete Sampras

won fourteen Grand slams at all. Raf has won thirteen on clay at Roland Garrows, the red clay of Roland Garrows. He's got he's got injuries though, and he's been he had a torrid start to this two season. He's developed injuries. We saw in and Wells against Taylor Fritz. Now it's the foot and so you always have to give Rafa some some you know, lip service. Here at the very least, he's plus two eighty five. Here at Circus Sports he is the third short shot, but Carlos Alcarez is now

two to one. Carlos Alcarez in his last tournament, of course, in Madrid, not only beating Rafa Nadal, but turning right around and squeaking by Novak Djokovic, then dispatching Sasha Zverev in the finals. He took this past tournament off to prepare for Rollo on Arrows. He's two to one. He is a tick a tick of an underdog to Novak Djokovic, who is the short shot at least here plus one eighty five. But essentially it's those two guys at the top,

Djokovic and Alcarez. Nadal just out of respect and the only other player in single digits, with apologies to him because I don't think he has a shot to win it though he's been playing great. Is Stefano sits a pass. Everybody else is double digits, and I mean, like Sasha Zverev's the only one that's south of thirty to one. In some spots, you know, he's seventeen to one. But I mean, realistically, is this Djokovic or Alcarez to Yeah? It is um in terms of title yeah the yeah.

And again kind of going back to sort of how do you bet the futures in in n clay, Like if you're making bets now, like, best luck to you, Like these numbers are pretty these numbers are pretty pretty pretty fair, um, And you know, and realistically, like you could have still gotten some decent stuff on Djokovic as as recently as one week ago. Um, So it's uh, it's not impossible to get good prices on these guys

over the balance of the clay season. But what we've seen throughout this clay season was basically a revival of Djokovic to a level of Slam champion quality. And it was a weird It's been a weirdo for for Novak, just put it plately, um And uh, I don't think even as recently as month ago, I would have given him much consideration here just because he would looked to be, you know, more or less. I'm gonna try to get in shape and be ready for a Wimbledon title run

like that. That was the feel you got as you saw him out there on clay, just looking like an absolute shell of himself. Right, he gets to Belgrade and he played his way basically into shape, I thought, in Belgrade, ultimately losing to Andre rueb Lev in that final. Um, but going through and kind of having some matches where he had to dig really really deep to get wins against players he should you know, he should have been

like minus one thousand is favorites against. He had to dig deep, Laslow, Jery, Um, you know, kick Manovich, you know guys that he has, he is just miles better than he really had to dig to beat them. Um. The Jerry match was the one where I was like, oh boy, just crazy, Yeah, just absolutely crazy. And uh we were you know, my friends and I are tennis friends, and I joking like, oh, I mean this is Jerry's hometown,

so he's a tough out. It's like, well, Djokovic's hometown too, so you know, whatever it is, what it is, um, But yeah, those that those he had three three consecutive three set wins in Belgrade, followed by a three set loss to Rube Level where he just kind of ran out of gas. Finally in the final, but that those were the matches, those are the that was the hours on court he needed to kind of get himself into shape.

He comes to Madrid, and I thought his Madrid performances were way above expectation, certainly the defeats that you know, he he picks on Momfie like he owns them, which is, you know, sad for mom feedbackers, but um, you know it is what one of the more lopsided head to heads in all of tennis history. Um he was excellent against her catch in the quarterfinals and then the semifinals, in my opinion, was the best match we've seen on clay this season, and I think it was by a

lot actually, um Alcarez versus Djokovic. Al Karez was dealing with foot injury from his previous previously had just defeated Nadal. Um the I thought the conditions favored Djokovic slightly. We saw the market open up with al Krez as a meaningful favorite. He was in like the minus one thirty range and it got bet to Djokovic minus one thirty. So there was an healthy appetite in the betting market to support Djokovic. Al Kraz notably one and it was

a very very thrilling win. Three setter h two tie breaks. He lost the first tiebreak, he wins the third tiebreak. Um. Djokovic in that saved eight of ten break point opportunities. So he basically had that gear he needed every time he was asked to, you know, kind of dig deep and save something. He did, um and he you know, and for what it's worth, Alcroz was playing the best tennis on tour at that time, and you know, currently his elo would say he's the best player on tour

right now just based on how he's playing. Um. But that was kind of the okay Djokovic's back moment, like light bulb goes off, Like okay, if he is coming off of that poor of a run of form and got and play. You know, Got was able to raise his level to this level and go toe to toe with Alcrez who's on fire, and then he's going to be a tough out at Rolling Garrows. Sure enough, he shows up at Rome and just I thought it was masterful.

He was outstanding, doesn't drop a set, wins the title, plays on the way, plays a couple of very very lively uh Clay challengers, including Felix Algeri alias sim and Caspar Rudin Sispas in the quarterfinal, semifinal final, and basically what you know, he did sort of the classic Djokovic thing, where as soon as he needed to flip the switch to get the win, he did it in all three of those matches. It's crazy, it's crazy to see it, and you know it when you see it like it's

it's it's it's characteristic Djokovic. And so now he comes into this tournament as the one seed, as the defending champion. Nadal will get to in a second, but is you know, as as a shell of what he was in years past coming into rolling garrows physically um, and he really only has to deal with the Alcrez potentially it is a head to head and if I'm gonna hold up and I'll get your take on Alcres because I know you backed him, I have now a stronger position on

Djokovic than alkrez Um. But the fundamentals are Alcrez has only ever played something like ten best of five matches in his life. That's not enough experience in my opinion to get him to where he should be a favorite of origin. I think It also makes him more vulnerable to a surprise, Um, you know, surprise somebody, somebody catches him by surprise, right, he just there. The best of five Tennants is different than best of three the Masters.

One thousands, where you're playing every day, is different than a Slam where you're getting a day off in between the Masters. When thousands like the you know, the you know the run you know really not not even just the Masters, but Barcelona is a good example. Miami is a good example where Alcrez was the title winner. Um, when you're playing day and it's best of three, you know, the younger guys, in my opinion, have an advantage there.

And it takes um, you know, it takes a little bit of experience and a little bit of you know, you know, learning how to use your endurance and you know, giving away a set if you have to to preserve. You know, like there's more strategy, there's more. It's just it's almost like a different approach. And we haven't really seen al Krez figure that out yet and could he figure it out on the fly as a nineteen year

old in this tournament and win? Of course he's we just said he's playing the best tennis of anyone on tour right now. And it's awesome to see, um, but I personally think you're probably looking at a Djokovic al Karez final. Um, we're looking at the draw right now, and I saw a couple of names. Land. It looks like sisipass is in the third quarter. Uh, it looks

like Nadal is in a quarter number one? Is he? Yes, Djokovic, Nadal all is going to be your quarterfinal and quarter number one's Verev Alcarez in quarter to Wait a minute, Wait a minute, joke, Djokovic and the doll ended up in the same quarter. Oh my god, so the top half is completely lopsided. Now wait a minute, allows you draw. Djokovic gets Nishioka in the first round, could face Mokan

in the second. Oh my goodness, Wait a minute, hold on, jokers, So what is happening live as we're doing this podcast? Hold and run into it. So Djokovic and the doll forget the same half of the draw. They ended up in the same quarter of the draw. Ye, and then al Kraz and Djokovic in the same half, and Alcarez and Djokovic and the dollar all in the same half. Alcarez its Verev in the same quarter. Yep, so the

big so the big winner here is Stefano sits As. Yeah. Wow, only guy, only guy in the bottom half of the draw with with a pulse. That's amazing sing yep. If you're the organizers, Oh my god, Drew, this has kind of set me back for a loop here. Oh yeah, for sure. If you're the organizers of Roland Garrows. Yeah, you you rake the draw incorrectly. Have you read the

droid directly? That's exactly what I wanted to say. I was trying to figure out how am I going to say the sentence That's exactly what I want to say. What are you doing? I don't know. Oh man, I mean you're gonna I mean week two of the Roland Garrows men's side, it's going to be unbelievable if you get that same. So basically the tables were turned where um al KaAZ had to defeat uh Nadal, Djokovic and

Zverev in a row to win Madrid. Now now Djokovic is going to have to beat Nadal, Alcarez and Sisipas in a row to win Roland Garrows. That's a tough that's a tough three leg stretch and have to beat Djokovic Alcorrez and sense about yes, so for both of them,

and yeah, yeah, honestly, the this opens the door. This opens the door big time for siss because the scenario where he had to get consideration was a scenario where Djokovic takes a little damage against it all Djokovic and al KaAZ in the semifinals is a five set, five hour blood bath and then whoever emerges from that blood bath is just absolutely gassed and spent in the final, and Sispas can can pick apart that game in the final. Well, let me let me ask the money question here, and

I'm sort of answering it myself right now. Drew joke sits a pass in the futures market. So if you can find him right now, yeah, I think you gotta get him. I think you gotta take a little bit of him, don't you. Oh yeah, if you can, And if you can find him to make the final, I think that's a very fair bet because even like some of the even some of the other guys who have a pulse on tour right now are all landing in the top half. I Felix Gerali has seen landed in

the top half. Schwartzman's in the top half. We already mentioned Verev's in the top half. Um, Taylor Fritz looks like he just landed in the top half. Uh. Sisipasa's quarter has shop of alov Her catch Tiafo Rude as the ranked players, demon Hour as a ranked player. Um, he's going to be at minus three d minus former favorite against all those guys. This is Tissippasa's quarter. That was in his quarter? Yeah, really, the only the only clay player in his quarter is Rude. Rude and who

were the other people? Demon Hour, Tiafo? Um, Yeah, it's a it's a pretty weak quarter. Chapavolo, chap of all is in this section. Rude is the clay court specialist of the bunch. You're right, but but that's not a It's not a spectacularly easy draw either, I should say. Yeah, I mean, everybody on tour is good, but in best of five should be able to be all those guys. I mean, he'll at least be a minu he'll be a heavy favorite against any of the those guy his

head to head would you make him against Rude? Really? That have you have a favorite against Rude, I'm not so sure. Uh, that'll be a tricky one. I don't actually have I don't have a match to kind of lean on in terms of past history for pricing on that one. But I would cispasses that maybe minus two fifty, maybe they open it minus one gets to fifty. Um. I mean, Rude is a fine player, but he's kind of he's kind of the Mendoza line at this point of you're you're a top ten or you're not on clay.

You know, like if you are, you're gonna beat him. If you're not, you're gonna lose to him. Yea. His clay numbers are elite, right, Like if you look at his raw data there, it's tremendous, but it just doesn't manifest in reality that way. Yeah, his his most impressive win on clay. It's been a while, right since he had like one where you were like, wow, I cannot believe he beat that guy. Um, it's been a while. He's he's mostly just picking on the guys who are

a clear here below him. From what I can tell you, Uh, rihards getting it done for me in Geneva right now, Drew, He's having a nice little renaissance. Good by him. Yeah, um that is so that's that's the big news of this podcast right there as we're doing it. That the fact that Stephanos sits up Us managed to get half a draw without any of the three guys in front of him and without the guy behind him in Sasha's vera.

That's unbelievable. Yeah. So basically to get to the finals, Sipas's path out of his quarter is Chapa alav rude and then Rublev in the semis. Yeah, what's that quarter? We haven't mentioned rube Lev's quarter like whole it's the

Medvedev quarters now, so it's the rube Lev quarter now. Yeah. Yeah, but you know that path of uh, you know of Chapa alav rude um ruby Lev to get to the final, he is very very very winnable for him, uh and he can get through that without expending much juice then and the other side is just a blood bath, and

he actually has a pulse to win this title. I am, legitimately when we're done with this podcast, turning around to this desk behind me, because if I have yeah, because if I have my Alcorrez tickets on one side, I'm legitimately now I would play for an Alcorez tits APAs final and just sit back and enjoy. Yeah, oh yeah, absolutely absolutely, and that's not crazy. Um what would you make what would you make sits a pass? And we don't we don't see quarter prices yet, but what would

you make him in that quarter? Oh? Min? Yeah, it's gonna be a free, favorable price. You're gonna get plus money on to get him to the final, which would be nice. Um. That's because again, if Alkaz is who we think he is, and he does defeat Djokovic in that semifinal, um, even if it is a is a gold blood bath, he gets a data rest and recuperate, and he is a much better player than Sisippus, much better, And yes he should win that match, even with even

being a little gassed. In the head to heads we've seen between Cispas and Alcraz this season, they've been lopsided, big time lopsided. Um, we saw, Yeah, there's really it's it's not a it's not a great it's a matchup for him first us always kills me. I don't know if you ever get this impression. This has nothing to do with tennis data or anything. But you ever watch it Sits Apass match and you just walk watch him

in between points, and how unathletic his gate is. Have you ever noticed that about one of his like his even when he walks, he just feels like he's not athlete. Obviously he's one of the elite players in the world. But uh, yeah, I don't fear him if it was an Alcoriz Sits Apass match, I don't fear that. You know, no cisspass is uh. The two characteristics that in between points I always noticed he's always staring at his dad

looking for tips episode. That's one thing. And and he's got a very membo quality to him in the interviews and what he says it's, uh, he's he's not, He's not. He doesn't present himself as one of the sharper tools in the ship. So I really think I'm gonna get some sits about insurance right after this. Um So, let let me ask the same question now that we see the draw. Let me let me just ask the same

random question that I asked on the women's side. If I came to you and I said, this is just a ridiculous question, But if I came here and I said, hey, man, Djokovic, Nadal, Alcarez, sits apass. I guess I'll throw in Zverev to make this an interesting question. None of them want it. Who won this? I mean, if that's the set up, something absolutely insane happened, something absolutely insane happened. Uh, you're so

you're setting up basically like I get wiped out this tournament. Dude, you too, Okay, so if that happens, it's it's scam Nori. Whence his first ever Slam? And I'm just I'm sobbing into my into my, my, my, my ripped up tickets. Yeah yeah, I mean I mean realistic, Yeah, realistically ruby Lev has the quality that he should be at least in consideration for a slam. H And again he has a very very easy draw. Uma found somehow found his old form. That would be cool story, that would be

cool from a story wise. But do you know how many matches he's lost in a row? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think he's on the twelve twelve straight losses. You know how hard that is. You have enough of have enough of a ranking point, but still get into every uh you know, every tournament and losing round one. It's hard. It's hard, it's a accomplish. I love. How true when we do international tournaments, how we start to have European characteristics? I yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, idoos almost do I

believe correctly for this? Yeah, there you go. Okay, So, and I don't know how many first round matches you're saying here. I haven't crunched the numbers. Obviously, the drawers are coming out right now. But so I don't have any first round plays quite yet. I don't know if anything catches your eye upon a glance now, nothing, nothing in general. I'll get those out on the numbers game daily. Yeah. The handful of guys who are kind of in them in the lower rankings and or unseated who I you know,

it was fired up for um. I haven't seen them getting well placed yet anything women's draw yet or not out. Not that it's going to be an interesting they're they're react. They're getting a live reaction from Djokovic. He's wearing like the same offic as me. Weird not did not coordinate that. Um, they're getting a live reaction on Djokovic for getting utterly screwed by the drawly utterally screwed. Yeah, I can't imagin I can't even imagine what he's saying, But I doubt

he's happy by about this. The idea of of Nadal and alcaz back to back to get to the final is about as bad as things could have gone for him today. I I went from you know, me, thinking, what, we scheduled this podcast too early for the draw too? We timed this perfectly. Yeah, for sure that nothing else that we can say is as important as that. That's

that's a criminal draw, dude, that is criminal. Yeah, I'm almost thinking I'm inclined to take a quick look at what's going on with the exchanges to see if there's been any reaction to the pricing on him, because there ought to be. Like he was what plus one eighty plus one sixty around town before this draw. He should be plus two fifty now. Um. I mean this, this

should have just absolutely flattened the top four pricing. Um. And I guess let's give Nadal a little bit of time here because I don't have a ton more to to really reflect on this. His path to UM up to the uh potential quarterfinal match against Djokovic is fine, Like He's going to be fine, assuming his foot is is right. UM. And I think if you were to tell me like there was a wild upset and he doesn't get there, and I think it's much more likely that he injured his foot so badly that he has

to withdraw at some point. I think that's that's a walkover is a lot more likely than him getting upset before they get to the quarterfinal against Djokovic. UM. But it is worth pointing out that he had an incredible run through Australia. He did the impossible coming back seven that final UM to win that title. It was it

was that was a wildly unexpected outcome, um. And he carried that form through until he got injured in Indian Wells and that in that match against Alkrez, which was the best hardcore match that we saw outside of the open um. His foot injury that he's sustained and exacerbated it and him against chap of Allo looked very serious to me. UM. That was that was that was not good. Uh. And I think realistically, UM, you know, he needs he's

a player that needs a strong build up. UH. He needs kind of the mental edge over all the other players on tour and he didn't get anywhere close to that in this run up here because of the injuries he's sustained early out in Madrid, to al Kraz, early out in romp to to um chap of all of and I think realistically, you know, if he does something amazing here, especially considering the straw, this will be the more impressive of his titles, without question, without questions, it

would be Drew. I appreciate it. Man, this was fun. There's no one I'd rather have shared that moment where we're just like flabbergasted by what we just saw. That is brutal, but betting opportunity on Stefano's tissapas out of nowhere. You know, at A don't anything to add on either women's or men's side. Well, we'll do the individual picks on a daily basis, Yeah, for sure. So the the fourth quarter is the most wide open if you want to take a long shot. On the men's side, that's

the Medvedev quarter. Medvedev is just absolutely wildly out of form, and he's bad on clay and a on a good year, Um Miramar Kikmanovich and landed in that quarter. Um, he's not he's not if he wins that fourth quarter will not be shocking. He probably ought to be the third price there or second maybe second price there after. Rube lov Um, I'll probably have a little bit of that in my pocket. I need to break down what that.

That's probably your quarterfinal rube Le Versus Kikmanovich and fabulous, Yeah, anybody else like I guess so the women's draws coming out right now if you want to hang and comment on this, but just give you some other names in the rube Lev, Medvedev, Kikmanovich du quarter. Yeah, let's here so again because Medvedev is the two seed and you know, and you know he's he's a wonderful player on hard and you're defending US Open champion, like all that is true. Um,

just took him down. I know it's not the same clay surface, but I mean he just destroyed him on clay. Yeah it was. It wasn't that And that was that was one of those where you see him entering that tournament and you think to yourself, Okay, he really he needs the reps on clay, you know, and if he's gonna even win a couple of matches and rolling garrows, he needs to go far in this tournament, and he was out right out of the gate. He was done. Um,

so that was that was wildly disappointing from him. Um let me let me pull up the full draw right now, like all the all the websites. You're boring a little bit, a little bit slow. This was happening, by the way, live while we're doing this podcast. And it's so funny reading the comments where some people are like, I'm gonna need you guys not to do this in French, you know, people like that's so funny, a little less French, but it is. This guy said, um, yeah, this is so great.

All right, So Clara Towson by the way, late withdrawal from the French Open on the ladies side. Just do I like her game? I do too. She'll be great one day. Did you before we see the women's draw, were there any kind of like super long like like the jail Tykemans of the world, the and Amanda and a Samovas of the world. Who you think, um, you know, given the right quarter, could make a run to the semifinals. So it's a good question. And I do think you

hit on the name right there. Amanda, and this Samova would be one of those Amna, this Simova who had so much you know, one of the one of the great American young players with so much potential. People may recall that she got pretty deep. I want to say, into a semi final and roll on Garrols a few years back, and then uh, it was up a set in a break, I want to say on Simona Alip before Hallip came storming back. I don't think Amanda was

ready at that time. UM, don't hold me to the to the semi or to the doubt up a breaking, up a set in a break, but it was a deep run. I think I might be right on both of those details. But she her clay numbers are great. She has had a fine hardcore season as well. She's not gonna win this tournament. But yes, if she's in the right quarter that that would be a name to look at. I'm just sort of scanning. Um, you know, Belenda Benchitch has her moments. Let's put it this way.

No on Serena for anybody. Um, if people are thinking about Coco Golf, I would just sort of say the jury is still out on Coco Golf. Naomi Osaka is going to be a name that people are gonna think of, who are casual tennis fans. This is not her surface. She landed unseated in the third quarter. By the way, I don't in there. Who did Ega end up having in her quarter? Well, we were there. They're still going through.

They're doing this funny where they're putting all the unseated players first and they're drawing drawn out of the pot to put the seeded players in there. So we don't know yet, but yeah, no, I think got to close the loop on a couple of I got. I got all the draws in front of me for the men's side right now. So in the fourth quarter, this is the weakest Medvedev is your top seeds, Your second seed

is ruby Lev. The other seeded players Jonnick Center, Pablo Kareno, Boosta, Kickmanovitch, chili As Leshvilly, and Tommy Paul Um and then outside of your seeded players, there's really no one who scares you Um. So I think that realistically kick Monovich will probably be priced behind at least behind Center and ruby Lev, maybe behind Kernio Boosta, So you might get like a five to one, six to one price on Kikmanovitch to win that quarter, which would be a ton of fun.

A lot of these Spanish players of clay have been a little disappointing of late. Oh yeah, for sure. And uh, I think, you know a lot of them they're trying, they try to round out their game. Krania Boost is a great example. He's probably better at this point on a slow hardcourt than he is on clay, just by the way he's shaped his game. But I think a lot of them are kind of taking that path because they recognize how many you know, you can win a lot of money and a lot of points on tour

and the indoor hardcourt swing. Uh and you know, on some of this because they've slowed down the hardcourt's overall on tour to the tune of you know, it's it's to your advantage not to be a quote unquote clay specialist. Um, there's the third quarters before you continue your This is for the second year in a row. This is from

David Smith. For the second year in a row, the French Open Men's Tournament is determined to have a completely epic set of quarters and semis and an absolute anticlimax of a final that's very true, and he said, I feel like second year or a third year in row. Maybe it's been a couple of there've been a couple of years now where we've had had these sort of

setups and letdowns. Yeah, Egotriotec. By the way, we'll begin her French Open, obviously against the qualifier, but then in the second round it will either be Allison Risk or Diana Yastremska, which means will be moving on. I like it. Um. The Cispass quarter we mentioned has chapavolav Her catch Rude. Those are your three top seated players outside of Sinspass. All of those guys I think would be you know,

Rude maybe the closest in terms of a price. Rud's only ever beaten Cisspass once on clay, and it was at Madrid last year when Cispass was in quite good form but really didn't have didn't care to try to with he know he was coming off of two straight titles and so he just sort of took Madrid off in my opinion, So I wouldn't lean too much into that head to head result um, and I think realistically he probably goes off as a minus two and her

favorite at worst case scenario against all of those players. So sisspass coming out of his quarter third quarters a very fair bet. Um, and then uh yeah we mentioned uh the second quarter is the second quarter is the quarter of death overall in my opinion, Um, a lot

of tough challenger along with alca As and Zverev. Um. So sorry, guys who quarter uh quarts in their H team is in there for what it's worth, Um scam Nori, Taylor, Fritz, Isner, Davidovich, Folkina, Nakashima basically a lot of Sebastian bias and Sebastian bias or are tricky players on clay. Yeah, one of those two guys to get like in the to the fourth round, he's gonna have to face either he's gonna Zara. Zvera's path is the toughest of anyone as far as I

can tell you. His round two opponent would be by As, his round three opponent would be either Nakashima or Davidovich Folquina, his round four opponent opponent likely Taylor Fritz and then round you know, to get to the court to get the quarterfinal opponent al Krez. Like, that's a that's an absolutely brutal draw, you can basically tear up any kind

of hope for a Zvera French Open at this point. So, um, presumably if he's if he's that unimpressive, if if if you really can't do much and is an early out here, you might be able to get a favorable price for zav at Wimbledon, because I think that's maybe a more favorable surface for him at this point in terms of what is his skill, uh, you know his his um. Maria Sachary ends up on the bottom half of the

draw on Jabor at bottom half of the draw. Um her Chekova was placed on the bottom half of the draw, and we don't know if well she'll play at contiv it on the bottom half of the draw. So those three, those four bottom half of the tops number one season she's top her. The next seated player in her section Carolina Plishkova. That's not scary. H. Jessica Paboula ended in her quarter, not scary. UM. Second quarter has Paula Badosa,

Danielle Collins Sablanca. UM. So presumably a potential semifinal matchup against Daniel Collins, which would be interesting. Um. Again, none of these players really straight, you're at all into Aniga backers hired. So this is is it? Joe Trippy just looking again? So again the men's you know, men's quarterfinal, if if seating held, Djokovic, Nadal, Zverev, Alcarez, Rude Tisipas, Ruby Lev, Medvedev, My goodness, they did give. They did stick Yolana Ostapenko in uh in the first quarter. She

would be EGA's round four opponents. If she gets there, that would be the one that would make us look up. Yeah, yeah, at least at least you take you pause a little bit before that match. That's but here's what you were just mentioning the draw of of Zverev. So the Alcarez projected draw quality followed by a Coconakus Ramo Savignoles winner, which you know he should be able to dispatch. But both of those guys are you know, they have it

in him. Harris Millman in round three probably catch it off Ori and team in round four, Fritz er z Verev. We got about Taylor, Fritz, he's in there too in the quarters. And then Djokovitch, Nadal, Semis, Titsibas, Rudeman ever went one of those guys in the finals. Yeah, I mean these are fascinating. Look at now how it landed in the first quarter. She will face potentially Ostapenko in

round three before facing Ego in round four. That's brilliant for Yougo how can take dispatch Osta Pinko if she gets there and then losing, losing and then losing straights, That's that's that's ideal. That is good. How about how about Naomi Osaki? You said it was unseated. Who's in the third quarter? Uh, they're going so fast, I can't tell you. We're literally doing this podcast on the fly here as these are coming out. Yeah, Osaka, you know, as an unseated player will play a seated player, So

I'm curious which seated player will have that draw. Chill Tychman ended up in the fourth quarter. She's shown some decent quality of this spring. Jill Tykeman is always a It's always a tricky one if you're if you're the organizers of this tournament. True. Getting back at Ben's draw, is there a little party right now? That's like, what have we done? Can we do this again? What have

we done? Yeah? A little bit for sure. Um Samsonova was the the other seated player and Ega section the only player to have taken a set off of Vega in the last sets. I believe it is forty six is giving you a little bit of drama here. Anna Samova ended up in the third section. She will play Naomi Osaka in round one. There it is now that here's the thing, if if if if if A Nissimova's

number is muted in any way, that's a first round play. Yeah, we've seen them playing round one of the tournament this season, and I'm misremembering. I don't remember like they've played. They went head to head. I feel like at the maybe Indian Wells round one, Uh maybe maybe not. You don't how many tennis matches. I'm so it all kind of runs together. They did not play. They played in in round of thirty two at the Australian Open. Anasmova beat Osaka in a in a third set breaker. She got her.

I'm curious what the number will be on that match because A Nissimova is much more clay form ready right now for that match by a mile, right, I mean yeah, Osaka's doesn't even really seem to be focused on tennis right now. She's starting her own uh her own sports agency. She's got interest all over the place. She may be just here for the sponsor check for all I can tell you, but the uh yeah her. She was ousted in Madrid pretty comfortably by Sarah sor Serebas Tormo Tormo.

Where did she those? By the way, Seiba's Tormo and uh Sorio Serrano who for whatever reason, I remember them as a duo all the time. Those are some pesky players too. But yeah, didn't didn't end up seeing them in anything anywhere of importance. Um, so it should be in pretty good shape there. Yeah, good, good, good, overall good deal. I think a very positive, positive draw for EGO. Yeah,

I'm feeling I didn't see. Yeah, I didn't see anybody really stand out in terms of like, oh that's a week quarter, that's a value play, that's a you're going to catch a good price on anyone in the women's draw as of yet. Um, but I need to do a little bit more studying here. Um. I guess Andrew Asque would be the one name I didn't see readily, and I'm curious where she landed. Um But yeah, Osaka

anism of around one is a great, great headliner. I think you're going to see Anna Simova go off minus one. There would be my guess. I would hope, I'm hoping for lower than that, and then I would pound in this. Maybe she opens around pick Oh, I love that? Oh my god, are you kidding me? Well, I'll tell you what. So you're not You're not available Tuesday, Drew, But we'll try to get you on another time for some roll

on arrows picks on the radio side this week. Yeah, for sure, at least week two, if not at some point in week one. There you go, let's do it. Drew Dinsick from the obviously Twitter at Whale Underscore Capital, but from the NBC Sports at the Edge podcast, which he does with Sarah Perlman, and of course the Deep Dive podcast Did's a Classic, which he does with Andy Molitor. Great listens the both of them. Drew, It's awesome to talk to tennis with you all the time, man, And

uh oh yeah, oh something else just happened. I thought you said something. No, no, live, just it's very cool doing live reactions to the draws awesome, always fun, alright, man, and hopefully people enjoyed it. I appreciate it. Thank you so much, Drew Dinsick, everybody. It's not over till you say best of luck to everyone, Drew. That's how we end this best of luck, Yes, of course, best of luck this fortnite. That's the way it was saying fortnight.

That's right. We don't know the word for fortnite in French, but we would say it otherwise. Thank you all for listening. Good Luck again Picks daily on the radio side. Good luck with all your outrights the French Open. Thanks for listing.