Beating The Book: 2022 Australian Open Tennis Preview

the hardcourt season really crushed it. So my dream here and by the way, thank you Drew for being here once again, Thank you sir, Thank you. Um. My dream was to have it be me, you and Dan Weston from Tennis Ratings. Uh. Dano was going to be on a numbers game with me tomorrow, So I'm gonna do this part with you first, and then we'll throw on Dano tomorrow with me on a numbers game and that will be the tennis Podcas asked, what do you think my goal should be in terms of listenership versus a

football podcast? Would that be? Like? Honestly, honestly, that is an enormous win. But I will say you have you have an especially dedicated audience, so I believe in them that I know they care. I know they care about tennis in their hearts, even if they're uh, you know ultimately football guys. Uh, they care about this stuff. And they and for sure, I mean, I don't think no

one would question you weren't being you. You were. You were on the nails with a lot of your looks last week last year at the in hardcourt season, UM one overall was one of my most successful probably actually was clearly from a just from a bottom line dollars one standpoint, that was my most successful tennis year of all time. UM and a lot of it was because of the slams UM so very excited for two now and would be I would be grateful for half as much success to too half as much phenomenal. So it

is the Australian Open. The Australian Open begins state side Sunday evening, Sunday night, right after or I guess during the last NFL game. It probably starts right around then on Sunday, so most people will obviously be paying attention to football. We will be paying attention to both. The first first question, do you do any betting the week before the Australian open in Adelaide or Sydney or do you stay away. I've been playing the just the match

by match pretty regularly, starting with the A t P Cup. Um, I think you, I think you almost you almost have to otherwise, you know the there's such a decent gap and you can't really evaluate player form unless you have skin in the game in the early tournaments. In my opinion, yeah, A t P Cup I think told us a lot

about some of the contenders on the men's side. Um. And similarly, uh, the Adelaide tournament in particular on the women's side was pretty pretty illustrative of some of the top player form all as they say, well at Allied with ashbody winning it. Um, let me just let's because I know you skew more a TP so let's just say briefly about the women's side, which I'll talk to

Dan more about. But that tournament in Adelaide ad Allied ash Party is so far ahead of the field at this point that would you consider a futures bet at her at Like, how how short of a price would you even go right now? On ash Party? She did not get an especially favorable draw. I think that's important

to recognize uh. And in general, my rule of thumb about getting involved in the futures market, particularly once you know the draw, if your player has to get has to do it themselves, if they have to do with them themselves, if they're gonna have to beat all the other competition to get the title themselves, you're almost better off going match by match. You are getting involved with the a shorter priced future, and I think that qualifies

for ash Party this year. Um. I do think she's the rightful favorite if the draw doesn't give her any gimmes and she's got to win all seven of them on her own. Yes. Like last year, Ash Party got an absolute dream draw and she was the short favorite as well. Um. And in that sense, you were better off taking the futures price for her because all of the talented players in the Australian Open were on the bottom half and there was gonna be chaos was gonna ensue.

You didn't know who was going to come off to come out of that bottom um, and ultimately ash you know, she went out in inglorious fashion before she even got to the final um. But that was one of those where you were never going to get as good of a price by going match by match with her as you would have just taking the futures. And I think this year is opposite. Um. She has drawn Osaka potentially

in round four. Um. If Osaka has anywhere close to the form we've seen from her UM in Australian opens past, that match could be pretty close to a pick them by a market. Um Osaka is not a guarantee to get there by the way, She's got to go through potentially Anna Samova and or Benchitch. My guess would be Ana Samova, but of a tournament win as well in Australia. Yeah,

she looks good. She looks good, and I know a lot of people that locked in some hundred to ones on her and they were devastated by the straw because that's bad. Because it is bad. It is bad, um Bench. It isn't like in super great form. She almost lost a Dodine. I don't know if you saw that the other Yeah, that was a that was a rough outing. She ultimately wins, but then turns around and uh and bows out. Um, She's she's still a dangerous player. Anna Samova Bench. It is going to be one of the

better second round matches in the entire women's field. Uh and then winner takes on Osaka, and then winner takes on Barti. Um So, Bartie just even getting out of her section is going to be a tough ask. If she does get out of her section, her potential quarterfinal opponents Sachary and Jabbor, both of the both of they can both absolutely hold their own on this fast court. Um So that's going to be a tough match. Is

phenomenally dangerous at this point, I think. But yeah, although she did with did you see why she withdrew Reed? The thing about that, yeah, the thing about these tournaments before, before these slams though, as you very well, No, I'm just sort of saying it out loud. You do wonder in so many of these and that's what makes them some. I'm not really frustrating, but because you know what you're getting into is, you know, I had Madison Brangle as a short dog yesterday and she broke I can't even

remember who she was playing, Um was it Kanye? I can't even remember, but she broke whoever she was playing, and then she got broke back and at three three little injury, and that was the end of that. And I just think that the first sign of anything before a slam, they're like deuces. I'm out, Yeah, absolutely true. Um,

but yeah, back to the party point. Uh, you're probably talking about Osaka in round four, so Ckery in the quarterfinals, Kchkova or Podoza in the semifinals, and then somebody tough in the finals, whoever comes out of that bottom half. Let's say it's ega. Um that for if you just moneyline role party over those over those four matches, you're gonna do. You're gonna do better than three to one.

You're you're probably looking even if even if she is nuclear hot and like carries her form from Adelaide straight through hitting seventeen aces and match you know, winning every service point, blah blah blah, you're still gonna You're still gonna do better than three to one, is my gut. And so I think that's the way I would attack

the women's side at this point. And yeah, she may pick up an injury, you may see something you don't like, um, and you can you know, then you're not stuck with that feature trying to figure out what to do with that too. So that is a lot more a lot more flexible when you lay it out just as you did. I mean that is a murderers row down the stretch

of that tournament, because you're right. The Bodoza Credicova one again for those who are not familiar with tennis, but Doza was the player I won the most money on calendar year one. She is a player who has found her form um. Spanish player kri Jakova, who won the French was that I can't even I can't even remember with pandemic years now, who won when what she won the French uh rid Jakova is also a very good

hardcourt player. She's not just a clay court specialist. And then there's Ego and you and I talked about this a little bit on a numbers game this past week, which is, if I were making, if you forced me to make it, make a futures bet on the women's side, at the price you can get Ega at, I would probably take Ega. The only thing with Ega is this who obviously wanted Adelaide last year on hard court and obviously famously won the French open Um the year before

that for some of us, more famously than others. Uh, I think that she's like a really good she's a really good hardcourt player, but I do wonder if there's like this thing where she can't get over the Bardie hump. Yeah, but she's still the best bet to me long shot wise, and if you got involved before the draw, she was the biggest winner of the draw in my opinion. She she basically has the highest quality, highest elo, highest upside

of anyone on the bottom half of my opinion. Um, people will point to Sabolanca, people will point to Contivite people will may make a case for Muga Ruta, but ultimately, um, there's no one that is. There's there's either it's in my opinion at least he either Ega comes off, that comes out of the bottom, or it's some dark horse. Should be fun. And that wasn't even the side of the Australian Open you wanted to talk about. Let's go to the men's Let's go to the men's side. The

men's side. Obviously. For those who have been following every sport on Earth and have missed the Novak Djokovic news, I don't know what to tell you. This is the biggest global story there's been but Novac Joker world push alert for this. Yeah, we should get pushed, but we're doing this Thursday earning, and we still don't know that the fate of what's happening with Novak Djokovic. Novak Djokovic, for those who don't know, as an anti vax guy, uh,

not a fan of the vaccines. Novak Djokovic the world number one and Australia basically under lockdown for two years now, that whole population generally speaking, and so they have strict rules on the federal level. But Novak got a Victorian exemption, so he traveled to Australia under that guy's with that visa thinking he's going to play in the Australian Open.

Then uh, that was the federal government then said sorry, buddy, we're canceling your visa, after which on a scheduled appointment this past Monday, a judge turned that around and reinstated the visa. So Novak is thinking he's playing again. We get to the draw yesterday, they postponed the draw because it's still not a hundred percent because a a immigration minister can still overturn that. I think I got all that Australian mechanics correct, and so then they went ahead

and they did the draw anyway. They postponed about an hour and a half. They did the draw last night, and so no Vac is the number one seed. But here's the deal, Drew. So if Novak gets kicked out of the country for lack of a better term, before the first round matches scheduled, then they can rejigger the seating.

If he gets kicked out after they give a time for the first round match, which should be happening here and within I don't knows whatever it is, then a lucky loser from the qualities would step into his spot, and as you were saying before affair, and not not so lucky given the draw. But you get the idea. So we are still as we do this. You know, you and I famously talked about this. I took Sasha Zverev bets in December at plus six fifty because like you and I guess I'm I'm I'm jumping on your

topic sentence. But you think there's three people that can win this whole thing. Yeah, this is a three man Yeah. I mean in general, if you are new ish to a TP major, you know, slam slam outright betting, it's pretty easy to Winnow it down to a very narrow field. Basically the opposite of golf, the opposite of the women's side, the women's side. Yes, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, right, but you know you gotta you gotta slam. In golf, you

can reasonably talk yourself into eight players. You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna put I'm gonna put a card together. We're gonna hit all any of these guys, somebody, one of these guys is gonna pop. Um, it's not. It's usually more much more straightforward on the men's side to narrow it down to who can realistically win. And it's

because they play best of five in the slams. And while upsets are entirely common at this tournament, particularly in the early rounds, that is there's a reason for that is because a lot of the guys who have you know, who have ranking points, who come in, um, you know, with with high expectations by the market, they're not in great shape, they haven't played a ton of tennis this time of year, and they can get upset pretty you know, their upsets are common because you know, all you need

is one guy to get hot from serve. It's a fast court. You could have unfavorable conditions on any given day because the heat is a factor here. Um. And uh, you know, so upsets in the in week one are common, upsets in week two are rare. And it's because of the best of five, you know, the format, And I mean I enjoy it as a better because it makes betting,

you know, it's it makes it much more straightforward. Um. But as you look across this year's slate of players, there are three with any kind of reasonable chance of winning this title who have previously won a Slam. One of those is Medvedev, who won his first Slam a

couple of months ago. Right. Another yeah, another one of those is Raphael and the Doll, who is only ever one here once and it was a million years ago, and it's coming off of a major knee injury which forced him to miss half of the season last year. The other guy is Novak Djokovic, and so it's it is you know, if he ultimately gets popped and is

not in the field. Um, that makes this utterly wide open. Uh, you know, just in the minds of the players, because you will have somebody either winning their second ever Slam, their second ever Australian Open, or you know, or a debutante here and Um, you know, I think I think your your entire breakdown was correct. And I almost think if the immigration officials reject the visa, it's something like a three year ban from the country of Australia. Like

it's it's not trivial what happens here. And that obviously that impacts is um, that impacts his quest for most Slams all time, obviously because he typically this is his this is his home court after you know, after Wimbledon, and Wimbledon is really only his his home court now because he dethroned Federer, and because there's not a lot of other guys with grass quality and you know, on tour now, but right Australian Open, I believe it is yeah, and and in and in general, if you just look

at his match by match scores, this is where he's been the most dominant, right, So it's it's there. There are those two factors definitely play into it. Um and Yeah.

So getting involved in the outright market, you either have to have some sort of conviction whether Djokovic is going to play or not, UM or in your case, in the case is Vere, I think you bought at the right time with the player who stood to gain the most, because because the way the seating worked, Medvedev was always going to be to Djokovic was always going to be one, and they were always going to be on opposite sides of the draw, so they were never going to meet

until the final. That was set in stone, right. The Zverev was the wild card because he could have ended up on the top or the bottom because it's random, and but that doesn't really help him because he was likely gonna have to beat both guys if he wanted to win the title. Um, and he ultimately is he's the big winner here if ultimately if Djokovic goes out, because then all of a sudden, one half of the draws his to lose and he only has to potentially

deal with Medvedev in the final. And you can convince me pretty easily that that's going to be more or less. Uh, you know a little bit of a pickup match juiced in favor of Medvedev. Likely, what would you say to someone, It's like, that's great that you got him at plus six fifty kill, but what about now where he's like plus three fifty Knowing that the Djokovic thing is still in the balance, would you make a plus three fifty bet on Zeev, Zverev Sasa Farev to win it again?

Kind of going back to the key philosophy is he can have to do it himself or are you rooting for chaos? I think you're rooting for chaos with him a chaotic event Djokovic gets bounced, Okay, honestly, yea, that's your role. Bet Djokovic gets bounced. Uh. You know, Zverev doesn't have to do it himself. Push comes to shove. If you remember very clearly, like one of the angles why you bet Medvedev uh in the US Open last year was because of this exact scenario. You could see

it on paper. That was going to be a hot, humid night Verevan Djokovic, We're gonna have to go head to head. That was going to be a blood bath, and then it was going to be a short turnaround for Djokovic or Zverev whoever want to face arrested Medvedev in the final, and so that almost certainly the fatigue was in favor of Medvedev. UM similar situation here, you're probably you know, if if both players get to uh, the semifinals. Um. Then you know, I still gives vera

of a puncher's chance in that one. He's definitely not Um. You know, he's not going to be the favorite in that match, certainly, UM, but he'll have a shot. UM. And then again, you're rooting for chaos where either Djokovic himself gets deported or um, the whole chaotic nature disrupts his performance, which is something that I haven't heard many people talk about, but it's very possible. Um. Djokovic is

a creature of habit. He has a very specific routine. Uh. In instances in the past where it's been disrupted, he's performed poorly. Uh, and he gets very angry when he's not the crowd favorite. Oh yo, I didn't even think about that, but yes, you're absolutely right. And he usually has the crowd here and I don't think that there's any likelihood he's going to have the crowd this year. So so just yeah, go ahead. I mean, I'm started

going to interrupt. I was gonna ask you no, No, I think I think that's the whole that's the whole case. You're you know, that's that's the bear case for Djokovic, even beyond you know, even if he plays this tournament, is he anywhere close to you know, a normal year for him at the Australian Open. No, no way. So it's you know, there there are a lot of angles, I think, and actually, you know, anyone listening, I ultimately I don't have an issue getting involved with Sev right now.

I think he got a pretty decent draw here. No one really scares me in that quarter, even Nadal Um so he's likely your quarter two champion. Yeah, if you can find quarter markets, absolutely bet according like um, sure, yeah for sure. So so did you make any did you make any Medvedev future wagers at all? Did you make it? That's the only that's the only thing I've

got to this point. And it was a small steak because I was concerned about the likelihood of no Djokovic and then Zverev and Medvedev on the same half of the draw, which is which is that would have that would have that would have been that I would have been real chapped. That happened to um thankfully, But ultimately, ultimately that's not what we're looking at here. And um, you know, I mean we can go quarter by quarter if you want to talk about the actual the way

that this is set up here. But overall, yeah, overall, I was pretty pretty satisfied with the way that the draw broke from Medvedev. So so let's do it just like ninety seconds on each quarter. And then I want to ask you one final question, which is, without knowing lines of the individual matches yet obviously without knowing the first matches, who are some of the players generally bubbling under that you think the market will probably under rate or perhaps over rate as well. But let's do it. Uh,

let's do a quarter by quarter if you will. The floor is your, sir, sure? So if you had asked me pre draw, I would have told you, see where Yonic center lance. He's an up and coming player, He's obviously he's he's a little bit of a of a sharp favorite. So you're not going to get an amazing price on him. Um. But I was curious to see where he lands because he's got the youth, he's he can he can handle the best of five. Um, and

you're not. I'm not worried about his fitness coming off of a layoff, um like I would with some of the older players. UM. Another guy that absolutely popped at the ADP Cup was Felix Alger alias alias however you want to pronounce that f a A um, And I was excited. I was looking hard at his futures. But you know, but he he has one kryptonite, which is Medvedev. Is he cannot be medved up period. He's gonna need

someone else to take Medvedev out. And unfortunately for f a A he landed in Medvedev section or as his quarter um. So they would face off in the fourth quarterfinals and I would make I would make Medvedev about minus three fifty in that head to head. So there's not much value anymore in f a A, even though it is worth watching some of his matches, um, particularly round one. Did you see who they put him up against Russel Ory in the fourth quarter? Oh man, such

a such a good round one, um are you? So they basically took him out of the tournament, which is too bad for him. But I don't want to break in if you if you were doing this by quarter, if you were doing this in the order, but I was the the isn't er opelka curios heavy server, you know, type of player on this surface. That's that's a real benefit to be a hard, hard server because this is fast it typically is. But you got to get to

the second week. Is that what I've noticed? Um, you need rhythm with your serve to for it to be as dangerous as it can be. Ultimately, UM, I don't remember any of those guys really just ripping the cover off the ball right out of the gate in week one of these tournaments. Um. It takes about a week

to get your serves rhythm down. UM. And but if any of those guys get to the week two, that's a matchup you do not want any part of um in, you know, if in the fourth round, quarterfinals, semifinals, etcetera. So that, Yeah, but those Opelka, interestingly enough, market is cold on him right now. He was a dog yesterday to Brandon Koshima. I had not Kashima last I lost

on that. Yeah, yeah, I mean market and you I mean, I'm not sure exactly why the market is so cold on Opelca, because he's got way, way, way more experience at this point, at this level, um been but his last year, if I recalled late last year on hardcore, Opelca's brimming with confidence. That's a good point. Yeah, I have. I have him as our top us player heading into this particular tournament for these conditions, and if he makes

it tw week two, he'll be fun watch. Um, how do you feel about Cocons, Coconakus and render Connection guys like that. I mean, I'm excited to see them back in the NEX Coconaukus especially. Um. He got the wild card here so we didn't have to qualify. That's allowed him to play. Is he in Sydney or Adelaide? I believe he's in Adelaide, but he's Uh. He had a really nice um when beat and three tiebreakers and yeah,

and against Isner the three tiebreakers. Was that two nights ago backed it up with a he covered the set, he covered the game set set at the game spread, but not the set spread last night against Yeah, I backed him against Isner and I faded him to my detriment against I played both those over, so I was delighted by there was in both cases. Um, the the he may win Adelaide at that point, he's not gonna do anything. And uh at the Australian Open Olburg unfortunately.

But he's a cool he's a fun player. Yeah, okay, all right, Well I'm I'm a I'm anti Chilge at this point in his career, so I support you. There, Um, he could he could win adelaide. Um. But there's there's really uh, there's really m there will be one or two players who you have not heard much about before, even if you are a relatively serious tennis fan, that will do something at this tournament. There always are. Um. I'll never forget the uh, the Kazakhstani kid who beat

the Djokovic with the glasses, Dennis Eastman. Um, you know he took he took this tournament by storm. Um. You know came four years ago. Last I was just going there next. Okay, nice um conditions favorite karatso here for sure, he's he's a dangerous player to keep your eye on. Um. But yeah, we've had runs from guys like Tennis Sandgren. Uh you know um uh Chung made a run here. You know, like there will be a couple of names in week two of this who you are like, wow,

holy smokes, how is this guy here? Um? But yeah, if you want to kind of go quarter by quarter real quick wrap bear Teeny's out of form. I don't like him at his current price in the time in the in the first quarter. Realistically, if Djokovic gets eliminated UM for immigration reasons, I would circle Pablo Pablo Corno Busta in the first quarter, UM second quarters veras to lose. There's no one else in that in that run outside of maybe Karatso, who I think gives him much of

a match in the fourth round or the quarterfinals. Third quarter is the one where I think you want to try to take on a price. You have an out of forms SUPPOSTI supposs dealt with an injury late last season. UM has not really shown much quality so far in coming back into this calendar year. UM caspar Roud is your other top seed in the third quarter, and he is not. He has not peak form for this uh, you know setting at all. He is a clay quarter through and through, and you would only look to back

him at the likes of a French Open or US Open. Uh, and even then not to win, but to get out of his quarter. UM, which leaves you with the likes of Yannick Center and Roberto Bautista Ago. I think those two players meet and one of them takes the third quarter UM, and both are available probably for a pretty

decent price. I'm gonna look it up right now. Um, but if those two players met in uh in the quarterfinal, I would favor Roberto Bautista Ago and I think you can probably get him in the price point range of about eight to one to win the third quarter. So that's a fun looker. It was the other one in that court or that you said, I'm sorry, Center, the young young Italian player. Yeah, I think I think Center comes out of section five. I think Batista who comes

out of section six. And I have a slight lean to to r b a In in that final. And really it's only because he's a machine like that guy is a robot. Um. He completely he absorbs the conditions without issue, he can handle the heat, he can go five setters and you're not worried about backing him the next time out. So um, that's really the only kind of fun, long shottish look that I would try to target. And then, as mentioned, the fourth quarter, absolutely Medvedev's to lose.

There's there's no one else in there that matches up with his game whatsoever. And believe it or not, if this was a completely neutral tournament and there were you know, if there was uh, you know, you take the immigration stuff for Djokovic out of the picture. I have Medvedev more likely to win this tournament, even me, even if Joker plays, Yeah, even if he plays, and even if he plays, and even if it's if it's just there's no crowds. There's no you know, no booing, no disruption

of it. You know, he's not getting extra testing, he's not being disrupted. No one's given him side ie in the gym, all that, they're all that out the window. This is just a neutral tournament. I have Medvedev as more likely to win. He's I have him as a higher rated player right now on hard court. The data supports it. The data supports generally speed. Side ie in the in the locker room, You've got always worried about that. I love that part. Side I and the logger room

drew huge part of you. I apologize for the interruptions. I just get so excited talking about tennis that I'm just like brimming with questions to ask. So forgive me for not letting you complete some of your thoughts there. Um, I'm glad. I'm glad we got to all of it. I'm in the same way. I'm on a roll. I'm can't can't get enough of this stuff. Well, let's uh, let's have you on a numbers game during the tournament obviously as we always do. Maybe even an extra appearance too.

We'll see what we do with the Australian Open. But I'm I'm very pumped uh to do this. Thank you for for doing your half here. Dan Weston will join us momentarily to give us his take on things. Thank you, sir for doing triple duty this week. Man. Hey, best luck to you and yours in uh, Happy new Year to everybody, Happy Tennis New Year, and yeah, I enjoy the first line. True Dinsy had well underscore Capper on Twitter again, Deep Dive and Bet the Edge podcast wherever

podcasts are available. Skill Alexander so excited to have this gentleman back on the show. It's been too long at Tennis Ratings is where you can find him on Twitter. Still does his stuff for Betfair. It's Dan west and everybody. How you doing Dan? Oh, I'm good, Gil, how are you doing very well? Great to see you man. And of course it is Tennis's first major, and I mean where do we start? We have to start with only

one place. The latest in case people missed it on Novak Djokovic is he was allowed into the country, um by Victorian law. He was there, he then had his visa taken away. It was then reinstated, uh, and now it has been taken away again and so it looks like there's an appeal that could happen or that will happen. But it looks like, at this point, a little more than forty eight hours away from the Australian Open, that

Novak will not be playing. That's the current thing. And so Dan, I come to you and I say, how has that then informed your bets? Well, it's it's it's such an interesting scenario and there's still a lot of intangibles. I felt that this story has got a lot more to run if you like. Um. He was two point nine two on Betfair on Wednesday, but before before the draw. Now he has drifted out to around the three point foremark.

So the market's pretty defensive on Djokovic, And in my pre draw preview for bet Fair, I wrote that I'll be pretty nervously I held a big position on him, and then that's that's certainly the case. Now my'd worth sort of clarifying with with your listeners, is that check the rules. If you're going to bet on this tournament, check the rules because on Betfair, for example, if you bet Djokovic before the tournament and he doesn't play the first round game, you get avoid you get a refund.

But if on on if stay take of argument, he's legal channels, give him a kind of a stage of some degree, and he plays a round one and then he gets thrown out of the country after round one, then you lose all your money. So as soon as he hits that first ball on court, everything's live. No voids that, and that might be different from various different sports books. So if you're going to bet on Djokovic, check the odds. Now, personally, I wouldn't. I wouldn't touch

Djokovic for various reasons. First of all, I thought he was very short price, regardless of any any off court issues. Have Daniel Medvedeva slightly higher numbers than Djokovic on hard court over last tour anyway, and I was quite surprised to see Djokovic's favorite with all those offered issues now and obviously we know now that this is just even worse pretorment preparation for Dokovic, so the fact that he has only very slightly biger than Medvedev in the right

market is is interesting. And it's also worth noting that prior to the draw, and prior to the latest issues for Djokovic, the top three in the market had implied chance of winning the tournament. That's fallen now to seventy two because we haven't seen a lot of shortening on Medvedev wherev even with those issues Djokovic, we've seen the likes of Nadal sits a past and a couple of the guys just around the hundred to one mark or slightly shorter. They're the ones who seemed to be benefiting

from the uncertainty Roundjokovic rather than the market leaders. Yes, it is super tap heavy and if Djokovic is out it could very well come down to a mano a mano versus Medvedev and Zverev. Others will have a say, but those really are the three guys with Djokovic that have a shot. Did you bet anything for those who have a quarter by quarter market on the men's side, Dan, did you recommend anything there? I'm still planning through a lot of it. Obviously, there's a lot to consider with

the drawer and working out the implication of drawer. It's also worth noticing on the I think Andrei rube Lev would then go into Djokovic's slot at the top of the draw if Djokovic is unable to play. So there's all sorts of if spots are maybes at the moment, so there's not a lot of certainties. So they would they would move the five seed up to the one seed, That's what I'm reading. Yeah, interesting because there were some

conflicting reports on that. At one point they were saying the lucky loser would just move in, you know, So that's interesting. So lucky loser would definitely take the place of Djokovic in the tournament, but I think in a different slot than they would shift. Yeah, it's an unprecedented situation. We just we we absolutely are are learning on the fly here. Um. And last thing about the men's side,

is there a player we don't know. We're just getting the first round match lines now, and I don't want to. I don't know if you've even looked at those matches because they just really have been posted here recently. Do you have any first round match plays or if you don't. Broadly speaking, is there a name or names bubbling under that you, if not win the tournament or win their quarter, could see making some noise in this tournament that people

should be aware of. Yeah, I think the few of the guys with strong serves around the top ten, top fifteen in the market and in the rankings are quite capable of making decent runs, particularly when we think the conditions are going to be fairly quick for our hard core the likes of Hubert hook Acts and Matteo Barrettenia too, with very strong served numbers and even quick conditions, they're

not going to be that easy to break. So there may be there are a couple of players to keep an eye on and the next tier of players if you like. But but there's not as as we always staying with them. It's it's not a lot that really stands out with the market is so top heavy to start with. And what about the women, said you and you and I have done these for years and we've always said, well, you know, men's very top heavy, the women's anybody can win it. Anybody probably can women on

the on the ladyes side. But Ash Bartie has really distinguished herself of late. So do you look at that side and say it really is her tournament to lose at this point. Yeah, So I have her for a reasonable distance ahead of the field on number my numbers. So the fact that she's at the top of the market and fairly clear of Naamasaka's second favorite is it seems pretty reasonable. Now obviously we know that that they're now scheduled to face each other in around four, which

is an incredible clash early in the tournament. So it's it's probably unsurprising that a Sarka's drifted about three points on back from seven to not farve tens now based on that draw. So the markets markets looking to fade Asaka she's friendness in the market after that draw, and she's also got Amanda and it's not over and round three, who was one of the players his keends keep an eye on for for the drawer as well. So so it's a pretty tricky uh round three, round four subsequently

for for Osaka in the next tournament. And it's it's not surprising that she's drifted at all. If I said to you Dan and we're talking to Dan West and at Tennis ratings on Twitter, global analytics expert on the sport of tennis and other sports. You betting cricket these days? To Dan, is that what you're doing. I'm not allowed to put on cricket, not less not allowed to bet on cricket. Uh if I said to you, okay, you must make one bet in the futures market on the

ladies side. But it's not ash party, it's somebody else that's double digits here by American betting parlance. Who would it be? It would be your friend and mine? Yes, six sixteen's um so mine my name was right. Her is the third best hardcoreter on tour right now, and obviously we know that that she's young, she's got a lot of future upside as well. Young players tend to

start the season often pretty well. We've already seen a few surprise finalists on the men's tour in these warm up events, so I'm very comfortable with swar tex price and and the fact that she's got a pretty straightforward opener.

Harriet Dart from from England in round one, Cassa Kina might be a bit of a testing Round three, but you've gotta be beating the lights of Cassa Kina around through to to win a slam, I'll to get to the business end at least, and I feel that she looks a very clear favorite to me in that in that fourth bracket against the likes of Sabolenka, Cerber and

Lata Fernandez as well. So I don't see a lot of trouble her, to be honest with you, Yeah, she and she got the opposite side of the bracket that they already did, right so they could meet in the final if it came to that. I'm with you too. I know people when I first said it last week that Eagle's probably the one long shot Bett and I did put it in my pocket last week before the draw. Even she is, she's got the numbers, she has the ability. Now can she get over the Bartie hump when facing

her head to head? You know who knows in the end, But in terms of the value, I would agree with that wholeheartedly. That he gets Fiatech at sixteen to one. We're showing at bet MGM would be the long shot play on the ladyside. I took Zverev at plus six fifty dan in December, anticipating that Djokovic would would be out so this, this next forty eight hours is actually as big a deal to me as the matches themselves. Man, yeah, I know you've got the value of regardless, right, regardless,

I got the value. Um, you don't have any play any plays in the finals here before the Australian opening at later Sydney, before we go, No, no, no, just they're just gonna keep an eye on everything over overnight here UK before some interesting interesting matches with Quatric over and Podoza to. It could be easy to do all of these tis as well. Yes, sat in the final.

I agree some marginal value in christ Koby. I think Dan, we gotta run great to see you man, pat skill type test basiting YouTube Dan West did everybody at Tennis ratings