Beating The Book: 2021 Week 9 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

we appreciate it. There is so much to get to and we cannot do it without the star of the show. Each and every Monday during football season, my mish book runs the South Point Hotel Casino behind us the sports book that is not the entire hotel casino sports book part of it. Christie Andrews, how are you doing? Man? I got enough problems running the sports book. You don't want to give me, couldn't do it, don't want to run the buffet wearing You're wearing your Pittsburgh Steelers tie

and what, Jeff, what did you greet him with? Oh? Your ridiculous football team? What did you ridiculous? Pittsburgh Steelers are gonna win the ANFC north Well they're they're game behind, they're half a game out of the wild card. I mean they're in the hunt. By the way, I wore this, you know, well, obviously because the Steers one, but also a gift just in the last couple of days from Roxy Rocksburgh. There you go, shout out, I can't wear this today? When am I gonna wear? There? You go, well,

that's exactly right. I'm sure you'll have other Pittsburgh garb like Pittsburgh socks. I don't think a gymnast, but there is. There is. First of all, I guess you guys had a spectacular week behind the desk. We did, Okay, so we're talking about a an NFL weekend. We'll get to every little detail we can to the next two hours. Uh. A weekend where the Vikings, Bengals, Lions, and Colts were

the most picked teams in circum million three. I'll say that again, the Vikings, Bengals, Lions, and Colts in that order. A weekend where Gino Smith, Mike White, Trevor Simming and Cooper rush one National Football League games. Uh, and the Bengals alone and survivor Circus survivor. And I think this is reflective of most survivor pools around the nation, took out over forty percent of all entrants. When all was said and done yesterday, forty four point two percent of

all entrants were out there. By the way, are the circus survivor eliminations from yesterday. Look at that forty eight hundred seventy one of the ninety three gone yesterday. We're on the Bengals and we'll get to all the details about that here momentarily. So for the first time. And by the way, that the Chiefs, who I'm on in survivor, that's a whole mess of entries tonight as well, So hopefully no more carnage for those of us who have

the chiefs. But we have finally gotten to the point this year, and that where we have fewer entries now than we did to begin last season. We've finally gotten to that point. So tell the whole story. The prize money is a lot more too. Oh yeah, well, there were four thousand eight entries this year and there were ninety I believe to start last year. But there's no time him to lose. As they say, let's go to

Thursday night because there's so much to talk about here. Well, you have you have arguably the two best games of the NFL season to cover right out of the gate. Because the Jets are playing the Colts on Thursday Night Football this week. That's one of the best games in the NFL season. The two games involving from yesterday. Yes, now what you're saying, um, yes, So let's start with the Jets. The Jets beat the Bengals yesterday in the

Survivor Carnage game. And for those who had the Bengals will get to the stuff at the end here, but let's just say this, thirty four to thirty one Jets. In the first half of this game. The Jets were minus three in turnovers. They were minus three in turnovers in the first half of this game, and they were down three points. That's when you kind of knew something something was going on here with this game. They were up seven and nothing and plus territory. Mike White threw

a pick. It was returned sixty five yards. They did make a goal line stand, but then Mike White turned right around through an interception deep in his own territory that led to his seven van tie. By the way, the Jets also in the first half missed a fifty four yard field goal that didn't come back to haunt them. The Crowder fumble late in the half did. That led to a seventeen to seven Cincinnati lead. White also was hurt midway through the jets first drive of the third quarter.

Josh Johnson came in briefly. Joe Flacco wasn't ready yet. But here's the deal. The Jets scored on five straight possessions between the second and fourth quarters, three touchdowns, two field goals. With White back in the game, they were down thirty one to twenty. He engineers in eight play seventy five yard touchdown drive, Ty Johnson nineteen yard touchdown catch, two point play fails. First play for Cincinnati. On the ensuing drive, Shack Lawson from point blank range, tips of

the Borough pass picks it. Two plays later, White to cross for thirteen yards. White then catches two point trickeration from Crowder, who's been great everywhere he's been. Duke Washington Jets thirty four thirty one Jets, and just like that, we have drama. The Jets stopped the Bengals on the ensuing drive, but with all three timeouts in a two minute warning left the Bengals correctly punted the football. Here's where it gets Ackey the first of a myriad of

wackiness yesterday in the NFL. With two oh eight left, two minutes and eight seconds left in the game, Cincinnati is all their time outs. The Jets then try to bail out the Bengals. Elijah Moore on a reverse runs out of bounds with two oh four left, and for those of us who were not on the Bengals and survivor, like, what are you doing? Then at the two minute warning, the Jets false start, so it gets the third and eleven at their own twenty. Cincinnati still has all three

time outs. Mike White, who had a spectacular game which we'll get to in a minute, throws it short of the sticks to Ty Johnson, a play that had no chance of converting whatsoever. Ty Johnson, then, like any football player might do, lowers his head and Mike Hilton, the dB of the Bengals, has the horrific luck apparently, as we learned moments moments after, of ducking his head at the same time and is called a flag goes on the field. He's You're like, oh my god, what is

this flag? Unnecessary? Roughness helmet to helmet. Horrible call. Horrific, horrible call, I mean just horrible. Cincinnati still has two timeouts. They use one of them after a short first down game. Then on second and eight, Michael Carter could have clinched the game, but inexplicably, inexplicably slide short of the sticks. You're like, well, what is happening? A third and one? Then Mike White sneaks the ball. I have no idea to this moment if he got it, but we never

saw a measurement. They gave him the first down ball game. I'm texting jeff I'm like, how did he flay? How did is? Are they gonna measure nothing? First down? We win? We meaning everybody who didn't have the Bengals. White ends up Mike White, the Great Mike White and dare I say, Jeffrey, who's a Jets fan? Do we have a quarterback controversy? He keeps playing this way when Zack Wilson is healthy?

Methinks we do? Do. Mike Mike White out of Western Kentucky thirty seven of forty five for War oh five, four or five. Only Cam Newton with more in his debut since nineteen fifty the most buy a Jetson's viny testa verity in two thousand three touchdowns. Those two picks. I mentioned uh Sack twice. He only threw eight in

completions on forty five passes. Carter fifteen seventy seven on the ground with a touchdown, nine catches yards, Crowder eight for eighty four five hundred and eleven total yards, and all the while by being minus two in turnovers for the game, minus three and the first half of minus two in the game. And then there's the Colts. I mean, we were gonna take a whole show to do one game. There's the Colts who lose to the Titans. More on the Titans later, because that's the other thing that happened

this morning. Derrick Henry could be out for the year case you missed, which is just so sad for football fans. It's so sad for betters, which will I'll get to also. But Indianapolis they lose to Tennessee. Indianapolis had a fourth and two at the Tennessee thirty eight less than you know,

barely two minutes into the game. They converted. They got a touchdown on a subsequent fourth and goal from the two, then fourth three at the Tennessee forty with two nine left in the first quarter, they were up fourteen nothing, they went for it and failed. That led to a Tennessee touchdown drive. So those are some of the fourth the fourth down at Shenanigans of the first half. But while Carson Wentz his ball handling is is clearly the most awesome thing I've ever seen? What have we said

on this show over and over? He does that whirling jurist Jamis Winston thing and it just kills him. And at the most important time of that game, first intend at their own eight with one thirty three left in the fourth quarter, Wentz one of those things where he shifts it to the other other hand and he just throws it up in there. Elijah Molden two yard touchdown interception.

Is that the worst interception you've ever seen? Yes, um, sixty five years old and watching football as I can remember, might be the worst interception I've ever seen in my life given the circum giving the circumstances tie game with would you say a minute thirty three seconds left at your own eight? Yeah, I mean that's the that that's just so incredibly stupid. Just stupid. But you know what the Colts have up their sleepy They have perfected the

throw the ball up in the air. They've done this to they throw it up and then more teams should incorporate this. I'm not even joking, throw it up in the air and have a dB run mindlessly into your wide out and get a big flag spot of foul. So they did it yesterday. First intent at the Tennessee forty six with one thirty three left in the third quarter when they were down seventeen and fourteen. And then, of course famously after that horrible pick a p I

in the end zone. Uh, second intent at the Tennessee forty three with thirty two seconds left in the game and we're going to overtime. Of course, then whence there was another pick with five sixty six left in overtime of his own tent seven. Kevin Byard returns it to the thirty that led to Randy Bullock forty five yard. The second pick was worse than the first. No, no, no,

I'm sorry, yes, Jeff No. The bizarre thing from just from the gambling perspective with the Wentz pick six that actually, other than negably passed a pick six was significantly better for cults betters than a safety because because obviously maybe they don't even get the ball back right guaranteed to get the ball back, of course, they scored a touchdown, and let's face it, you get the ball first, and

over time, you're gonna win more times than not. The theme of both of those games is that the NFL seriously has to change those two rules. The spot of foul pass interference you have to you have to be able to make it fifteen or that, and I know people like, oh, just what we want more subjectivity for the rest. I'm sorry that changes the game too much. I've been saying that for years. Should either be you know, one more decision for the reps. I understand, but either

spotifile or fifteen yards in a first down. You know, I've said this to Brent before, Brent Musberg, and he says, we will. Now then then all the d backs will just grabbing. It will be a fifty year penalty over and over. I'm like, that's fine, that's better to me. By the way. The other thing is that the runner lowing going back to the Bengals Jets things, the runner lowering his head and the defender playing actual football and getting flagged for playing football. We've got to do this

just you cannot bet on this stuff anyway. All of that to say, we'll talk more about over the break, but that was the fact that these two teams ended up playing each other with probably the most eventful games, and there were so many eventful games. Yesterday, I have Indianapolis minus seven and a half. WHOA, you're way low, am I. Yeah, it's ten and a half. My numbers come more like fourteen. Oh my god, I know we've

gone this whole segment. We're almost getting one game. Yes, this was gonna happen, this thing where the cults are overrated by the market. I'll take the Jets. Okay, we'll talk about it. Let's talk about it afterwards. Um, so much coming up, including you know, waiting on a Derrick Henry m R. Right this morning, we'll talk about it all A numbers game in visa guessing lines the Sports

Betting Network. In case you missed it this morning, here is the what only can be described for all football fans and all and I believe football betters as well, which I'll get too momentarily as really sad news Derrick Henry. This first from Adam Schefter over at ESPN. UM you may have seen Derrick Henry limping on the sidelines during the game. I should I didn't really think anything of it, um,

as I'm sure most didn't. But this morning, Adam Schefter, Titans running back Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season ending foot injury during the Titans thirty one win over Indianapolis. Sources reported to ESPN Henry is undergoing an m r I today to determine the full extent of the damage. And then Jay Glazer has added to this by being a little more specific on the injury. Jay Glazer saying hearing Derrick Henry broke the fifth metatarsal of his foot.

No bueno, says Jake Lazer. No bueno indeed, And for me in a sport, in a in a league the NFL, where betting pre flop a t s is about as plink oh as it comes. Betting the Titans, for those of us who had them ranked, I think a pro appriately much higher than conventional wisdom, and I think that's bared out the last few weeks. This was one of the few little slivers of betting edge I think we've had in this league thus far this year, and now that could be going away. So just and just brutal

for football. And then of course it has implications and all kinds of betting markets like most rushing yards, Offensive Player of the year. Um. But all of that just that was that was what made the Titans so interesting and such a different kind of football teams that they were throwback. They always had this get out of jail free card with Derrick Henry. And now is there a player that means more to his team than Derrick Henry does? Not for non quarterback? For sure. There's their last three

games to beat the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Colts. Yeah, what happens now? Speaking of which, let's get back to the cultures Titans later. I think your number is way too short, and I see the game ten and ten and a half. I'm gonna be on the high end of the market ten and a half. Uh. First of all, it's the Jet. Let's not get carried with one game. Michael White played great, you know, Michael White played great. Inside joke, Uh, but it's still the Colts. I say

I say this anecdotally. I can't go back and prove it, because my thought process here is way too subjective. But I think on these Thursday night games, the veteran team, the veteran coach, the veteran quarterback is gonna weigh out perform. You have a rookie staff with the Jets, not just head coach, the whole staff. You have a he's not a rookie, but a completely untested quarterback before yesterday. I think those kind of factors weigh in on the Colts,

and I like the Colts a lot. In this game, my numbers come to like fourteen uh and and again I'm looking diminishing returns. Mark that off on your Bingo card, you know, but I thought that was probably a little too high. But I'm gonna be on the high end of the market here. Like I said, it's ten ten and a half, I'm gonna use ten and a half. I can't disagree with that anything you said. And Mike

White could be a one hit wonder. We don't know, right, um, But I just don't understand the love for the Colts. I just don't well, you know, I gotta say I I had them too, you know, I mean I had that love for him too. So I mean that was one of the games. I think when we went back the last week, I wasn't one of the sides I gave, but I had two winners, by the way, but that was not one of them. But I did like the number higher on the Colts. I like, I like the

move on the Colts like that didn't dispute it. But I understand what you're saying, Jeffrey. Maybe we have a shorter game to get to them. That that last one, which is epic, well it goes goes backwards from there. Houston and Miami. Oh, there's not much to say here, is there? One? In seven verses one and seven, can I make two lines, a Torodd Taylor line in a Davis Mills line. I think I will Houston yesterday in defeat, and what a cosmetic score that ended up being thirty

eight to twenty two. After being down thirty eight to nothing to the Rams yesterday, Davis Mills for three ten to touchdowns, one Picky sacked five times and Cook six of eighty three or six eighty three, four touchdown. Then Miami loses to the Bills to thirty nine for two oh five no touchdowns. One Picks act twice four for

ten on the ground with a touchdown. Davante Parker eight catches eighty five yards but only two d sixty two totally yards for the Miami offense and their twenty six to eleven loss at Buffalo yesterday, the Miami offense just painful to watch. They were minus two in turnovers, including a horribly botched snap inside the red zone at the twelve yard line with the game tie three to three with twenty four seconds left in the second quarter. The snap hit a a Mike gasec I think Mike Gasecki

was in motion. Mike Gisicki was in motion and it hit him, hit him in the booty or something, and then it was a fumble. It was just awful. Nine penalties or fifty eight yards. Also for the Dolphins, flora Is, by the way, down seventeen to nine, went for two, got it to make it seventeen to eleven with nine

thirty nine left. So on another day we could have the whole knocking it down from eight to six point conversion conversation, because I'm all for it, and I know some people makes their heads explode, but mathematically it is the thing to do. It is if you want to win the game, that's the thing to do, because ultimately it gives you a roughly at chance. Trust me on the numbers here winning the game, whereas kicking the extra point essentially gives you a percent no chance of tying

the game. So yeah, I am, he was explained to me. I understand. Anyways, it's used in at Miami. If it's if it's Davis Mills, it's Miami by seven. If it's Trod Taylor, it's Miami by no more than three. Well, I made the number considering Uh, Davis Mills the quarterback, UM seven. Uh, well, my numbers came to six. Okay, you know, I mean Miami. He's talking about disappointing. I don't know if they're the most they got and my numbers coming six, I see it seven. Uh, there's some

seven with juice on the favorite. I see seven and a half juice on the dog. I'm gonna open seven. I think it is a decent place to start. We're gonna go there. Okay, next Jeffrey Denver, Dallas, Denver head Dallas, Oh god, Denver two. It just doesn't matter what team

you bring up. There's something to talk about today. Denver beats Washington, they snap a four game losing streak of the process Teddy Bridgewater nineteen of two thirteen, one touchdown note pick stacked four times Melvin Gordon ten or forty seven ten for forty seven rather on the ground and touch down, three catches fifteen yards and the touchdown catching the ball seven of thirteen on third downs were the Broncos. They only had two hundred and seventy three total yards.

They only had seventeen first downs. That was plenty to beat Washington seventeen to ten. Oh god, Denver did nothing. Still beat Washington and covered and covered. That was one of the sides I gave was Denver. Here's the thing that happened. With thirty seven seconds left in this game, Denver's up seventeen to ten. Denver decides, you know, we're gonna run the football. They fumble it and recover it on first down, and you're like, WHOA, what an opportunity

that would that was for Washington. My goodness, that was the moment second down Denver decides, you know we're gonna throw the ball and risking incomplete pass to stop the clock. Also, because why make Washington used timeouts? Incomplete pass third down. You're like, Okay, at this point, Denver, you fumbled on first down and we're lucky enough to recover. You threw it incomplete pass. Just just have Teddy Bridgewater kneel on it. Nope,

they run it and they do fumble it again. At this time they lose the fumble with twenty With twenty one seconds left, Washington gainst the ball to Dever twenty four. Like this is bisar chick without the return. This is just like you can't if Denver forget if they lose it, the coaching staff should be fired on the spot. Of course, Washington couldn't do anything with it. So there's that Oh god,

who are they playing? Oh? Dallas, Dallas last night? Man Cooper uh and the Cowboys they sit dock and they beat the Vikings. That is, this has more to do with the Vikings to me than it does the Cowboys. Yes, but we'll get to that. The Cowboys. Cooper rush twenty four or forty three, twenty five, two touchdowns, one pick, sack three times, Cooper eight for one to touchdown, Ceedee Lamb six catches for one twelve, Wilson three catches for eighty four and in a game changing touchdown, also one

of one as a passer for thirty five yards. What a beautiful dime that was on the run. How gorgeous was that pass from Cedric Wilson? They were seven or fourteen on third down. Dallas won that game last night minus two in turnovers, despite being minus two in turnovers, and despite committing eleven penalties for nineties six yards and the Cowboys go to six and one. Cowboys, buy a bunch here. I would think I would think it'd be close to ten. I said, Dallas minus nine and a half,

and what my number comes to nine and a half. Uh, most guys have this off Westgate. Kudos to them. They have it up eight and a half and that's the only one in town. I see it as low as seven and a half on the on the internet. I'm gonna wag just dak means too much, you know, um, but nine and a half I think with Dac and

I kind of have a hunch. Holl play here. Gives me a minute for a little speech that I have with you know, all these anytime you're betting dogs and people always looking at oh, they have no chance to win. And I was in Cooper Rush a good example. Every guy who's in these leagues, whether it's the Major League, baseball, basketball, football, remember that guy in high school that was way better than everybody else, He's probably not good enough to be

on one of these rosters. The rosters are filled with guys that are way better that So don't think a dog has no chance to win. Again. It's such a great point. I said about tennis a lot too. There there are two guys in my high school that could be anybody in d C. They were so great. And I saw him at the like that the tour stop, the pro tour stop once like years later, four years later after college, I was like, you guys going pro?

They're like kill come on, like those guys are so much better than Yeah, yeah, I mean I could think of guys on my high school team, you know, you know baseball football that never made it to the majors, never made I mean, I know one guy faced maybe two games pitch for the Cups will come back. More guessing lones a numbers game advasent the Sports betting network. We get tweets that beating the book. Hey Gill, are

they announcing n L M v P tonight. No Tonight at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on MLB Network Live, they are announcing the three finalists for all of the major baseball awards m v P, CY Young Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, a L N N L. But only the three finalists. We have to wait another week to actually get the winners of all of those, culminating with m v P on the eleventh of November.

So there's your answer to that. James underscore a g MY favorite stat after the weekend, Pete Carolyn Cino Smith three and o A T S. That's pretty tom f t for three more than any other day. I missed the old updates with Flatterman. I just want to hear a snarky bank Will was lose to Mike quite numbers game tweeters are the best. Arthur Middleman, Paris Tennis picks plays football is killing me. Uh. This is from the Charitable Gambler guessing lines in ten minutes. He tweeted this

tenuts before the show. I believe Gil is seven and four on the season. With his initial NFL thoughts, Chris, he is six and oh in the last two weeks. I'm sure Uncle Jack would be proud, he said, Uncle jud Um, and then j Rod Always's responded to Aaron Shots the curse of three seventy carries. I believe Aaron Shots meant to say not three und seventy wins. With Derrick Henry's uh, Derrick Henry's injury here, um, let's see

yeah and Dan Cobald Yeah. I guess you can add the Titans to the list of franchises that abuse slash don't protect their players. Derrick Henry On pays for a staggering five hundred plus touches this year after three seven last year? What could go wrong? People always looking for a reason. Sometimes they're flukey, sometimes they're not. The better life Timmy lost and new NFL bettors must wonder what the hype is abou out when all the pros and

experts are like, why do we bet on this? I was only expressing that to say, forget the handicap of the actual game itself. Then you've got to get through the coaches. Then you've got to get through the referees who reared their head in the most ugly way possible yesterday and multiple ocasions. So please understand the players running out of bounds when they're not supposed to ning out of bounds. They're not exactly Who had a sixteen second drive yesterday with the lead? Oh, I can't remember. I

can't remember it either. Yeah, Parlay, you don't remember somebody had a sixteen second drive with the lead and with the burn a little clock, would you? Well? Again, the worst driving to day yesterday with the especially since we had the Broncos in the contest. Yesterday the Broncos was like an eleven second drive, eleven second, two fumbles, an incomplete pass, basically giving Washington the only chance. That's the worst thing. Ever. I think it was eleven seconds, don't

I think it was? All right, Jeff, what's next? Alright, he'll coming up next? We get, oh, Minnesota at Baltimore. Okay, so that's let's listen. I'd like to say that's a good game on paper. But after saying Minnesota yesterday, you remember how last week we're like, okay, five teams in the NFC are pretty much shoein's to make the postseason, right, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Arizona, the Rams, and Green Bay. And I

think that still remains the same. But it's gonna be a mad scrum for those other two, and we were like, well, Minnesota's got to be the leader in the clubhouse for those other two. Man, this was such a bad performance last night from the Vikings that it is hard to ever say that again. Kirk Cousins was twenty three or thirty five for one eighty four one touchdown. Note Pixy was sacked once. Feeling was six or seventy eight in a touchdown. But the Vikings were one of thirteen on

third down last night, one of thirteen. If you were toggling back between that in the baseball game, you you could never tell which game to stay on because it's like, oh, they're punning again. Oh they're punning again. Oh they're up four runs. Oh now they're up for it. I mean, it was just it was incredible. Plus two in turnovers the Vikings were last night, didn't matter, lost to the Cooper Rush led Cowboys. Sixteen. Baltimore is coming off of bye.

I'm gonna say Baltimore minus seven and a half. I don't quite like your number better, but it's close. I'm seeing five and a half and there were some sixes out there that got taken. I'm opening six my numbers come to six and hap. By the way, we haven't mentioned qb R yet. Kirk Cousins was thirty six point six. I really thought this would be like a ten spot. I thought he was terrible. I mean, he did not give his team the opportunity. What was he one of thirteen?

You said on third night? That's horrible. Um, so I like the higher number your Ravens coming off the bye I think Vikings are terrible. By the way, one of my winners last week is I picked Dallas. Of course before the Dak Prescott stuff and the parlay card. Guys, you know, the main guy I'm talking about. They were out. They could not get enough of Minnesota because I left it on the card. I had Dallas a two point favorite on my ties wind card, that's the one they

liked to play. Left it on the car to figure what the hell? Anyway, figure what the hell? And you know is okay? But a little caveat here for Raven fans and betters in the future. This is their fourth straight home game, Is that right? I don't know that I've ever seen that before with a buy in between between. They weren't in London, were they at all? Yeah? That is straight home game. I don't remember ever seeing that before in my life. That's fourth straight with a buy

in between. So maybe the Ravens are peeking right now for a sort sort of reason. Anyway, I like this game six, but be wary of the Ravens moving forward. What's interesting is that so far this week already I like more games than I like the last two weeks combined, which may or might not be Like the Ravens in this spot too. Vikings the most picked team again once again in circum millions three. Obviously with the with the static line you can understand why that was the case.

But again Bengals, Lions, and Colts were also the second, third, and fourth most picked teams yesterday as well in circumillion three. I love Baltimore at that number. What's next? Yeah? Also, Mr Dinosaur, Mike Zimmers gotta be out of the job sooner rather than last night. They were pretty good. You must have had Minnesota, well we had him in the contest, but I didn't. I didn't. I didn't love that. I was just one of you know what, he's a defensive guy.

I think they're offensive coordinator might be worse, Like it's the it's and that's who Kubiak. That's Kobiak. So I mean you're talking about a I think you said it's a dinosaur, a a Jurassic coaching staff that's bad. Man. Look at the Jets coaching staff is horrible too, with all young guys, you know. So I think we need a blend here. The put put put la Fleur in the booth and he's apparently the best offensive mind in football. Now. So there you go there. Interesting game. Patriots said, Panthers

four and four against four and four? Right, Patriots beat the Chargers. Man, let me just say this. Our power ratings are in shambles. Everybody's power ratings are just exploded. After made a big adjustment on the Patriots after yesterday, uh and the Chargers big adjustment to Uh. Patriots at the Panthers Mac Jones yesterday and the win over the Charges eighteen of thirty five or two seventeen, no touchdowns, no pixibi sack once Damian Harris twenty three for eight

and a touchdown. The Patriots were nine of nineteen on third downs in their twenty seven and twenty four outright win as a dog three and a half point dog against the Chargers. They had a fourth and goal at the one with eight thirty nine left in the second quarter, down fourteen to seven incomplete. A lot of these teams just allergic to field goals. Next time down, they kicked the field goal. By the way Carolina, Carolina wins yesterday

against the Falcons. Carolina has allowed This is an interesting stat. Caroline has allowed fewer than two hundred passing yards six times this season. WHOA, that's an amazing stating that was only a hundred thirty one yesterday. Sam Donald in Victory only had thirteen pass completions thirteen for twenty four for one twenty nine, no touchdowns, no picks. He wasn't sacked. He had eight carries for sixty six yards. Chewa Hubard two touchdown ten of seventeen on third down where the

Panthers against the Falcons. They held the Falcons to two thirteen total yards and it didn't look like it was gonna start good. Jew Hubbard fumbled on the very first play, led to a three to nothing Atlanta lead. Donald hit his head on the turkey had to leave midway through the fourth quarter. Um just he was banged up left and right, but it was enough to beat the Falcons nineteen to thirteen. All that put in the wash. I think the Patriots are the favorite. I think they're the

better football team. I think certainly there's a there's a Belichick factor here. I didn't quite make it Patriots by three on the road. I said, Patriots minus two and a half. Well, you're like, it's three, My power raise come to five. I made a big adjustment on New England. I was very impressed a couple of things. We got flooded with New England money from sharp sharp bettors. I always let that influence me. I have to take into account who is betting what, and they flooded me with

New England money. They were obviously right. I mean, I think this team's come around. I'm looking again at qbrs Mac Jones fifty two point eight. I thought it would be a lot higher, and uh Sam Darrow fifty six point three, I thought that would be a lot lower. So once again the QBR a little bit deceiving. But I think New England's kind of figuring it out with this Mac Jones. And you know, they're just a kind of team. I've heard people say that, Uh, Belichick practices

hard so his teams get better and better. And I know that practices are a little different with a you know, kind of the last union negotiation. But I think this team is getting better and better. I have them raised pretty high. So, like I said, my numbers come to five, I'm gonna open threes. I don't see anything lower. But I will be at the top of the market here with New England. I think I'm not gonna get overly impressed with a Carolina went over a terrible Atlanta team. Yeah,

I'm not either. If if New England makes the playoffs, can anyone besides Bill Belichick win Coach of the Year? Anyone is smit of got mac Jones chewing, no matter how Stefanski or McDermott or Zach Taylor would still be alive. Well maybe not after Yes, I'm just thinking it's it's It's just like Brady's is the m v P to lose. I just think Belichick's is coach of the Year to lose quick quickly. I will say this, if the Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs, might com one deserves a crack

at that award? To a Yeah, we'll get to that. Is he gonna go to college, but any chance he was curious. Sorry, he's a little one wavering on that. We're going back. We're guessing lines Week nine numbers gave Visent the Sports Betting Network Skill Alexander Christie Andrews. This is uh guesting lines numbers game Visa the Sports Betting Network. Paul Carr, our soccer guy who also used to work at ESPN Stats and Information and now works a True

Media Networks, hosts the Expected Value podcast. Chimes in on your question about four straight home games, says last year, the Steelers played four straight home games, though that was because a road game against Tennessee got postponed for COVID reasons. Before that, the last time a team played four straight home games in a season was twenty sixteen. Both the Dolphins and the Packers that year played four straight. I thought, I gotta tell you, I would never have thought that.

Thank you, Paul car Yeah, that one just came to me while I was doing Baltimore, and Uh, I just don't remember saying it. I missed the other couple. That's the other beauty of the show that people who are actually regulars all listened and can make corrections when quickly and by the way, the other thing we said, uh, you know, I was talking about where he learned his offensive theory firm. Anyway, point being that that copies have

is doing a horrific job. Um and getting back to Dallas for a second, because we were just talking off air about how, you know, I've said for many years on this show, you can only win a Super Bowl with a quarterback over forming on a rookie deal or a Hall of Famer. The last time Nick Foles doesn't

count because Carson Wentz was the guy that year. Really, the last time a quarterback on a Super Bowl that didn't qualify in those two categories, you have to go back to Brad Johnson in two thousand, to Trent Dial for two thousand at the Great Defense in Baltimore. You just get. And so the joke of the economic structure in the NFL is that you are forced to make decisions on guys who are past the rookie deals but are clearly not solidified as Hall of famers like Jared Goff,

like Kirk Cousins. You're forced to make a decision to give him a hundred million plus dollars. And we were just talking about how Dak Prescott, the Cowboys end up making the It's I don't know if the Cowboys are smart or if they just get so butt lucky all the time. But do we have to give Jerry Jones credit for some of this stuff? Because that roster's packed

anything you can I'm just curious. I didn't want to make you do anything you didn't want to do, you must get I certainly don't want to give him credit. I'm just saying, all right, what's next? Buffalo and Ville? Buffalo Jacksonville. Oh, that's gonna be the largest spread of the weekend. Buffalo beats Miami. Wheread he talked about that, Josh Allen, There's really not much to talk about that game. Josh Allene. Two touchdowns, no picks, act zero times it

carries fifty five yards in a touchdown. He always fills up stat sheet. Beasley ten for one ten. Buffalo was plus two in turnovers, as we mentioned, nine penalties for eight yards. No problem. They still beat the Dolphins. And then there's Jacksonville. Can I just say that I liked Jacksonville yesterday and I even grabbed him in game at plus ten. Never had a chance. The Jaguars record in North America is oh and six. Let's put it that way. Go to London, they win, stay here in North America

and six. It's a sixth straight game that Trevor Lawrence has had one touchdown pass or fewer. They're the only team in the NFL yet to score twenty four plus points in a game this season. And let me just say, with the score twenty four to nothing. Now, remember eight times three equals twenty four. Last night checked, I think I learned that in third grade Urban Meyer missed that class. Uh he kicked the extra point when they scored to

make it twenty four to six. He's like, no, twenty four to seven is good then, Just just to let you know how ridiculous it is, he decided after that to kick an onside kick, because if you're gonna kick the onside kick after that, definitely kick the extra point before that and don't go for two. By the way, Seattle returned it to the house. That was the end

of that. I mean, I know the game is over right, Like, I'm not trying to act like they were gonna win the football game, but act like you care, act like your heads in the game. You're a pro. Played to the gun. I'm sorry, it's your job. God bless or to the coach, to the gun. Lawrence thirty two fifty three for two thirty eight, one touchdown, one picks that once Arnold was his big target. I guess eight for

sixty eight. Carlos Hide nine carries for thirty two, six catches for forty but twelve penalties for the Jaguars for nine three yards. They lost to a team in Seattle that only had two twenty nine total yards of offense. Jacksonville is terrible. Buffalo by thirteen on the road. How about that? You're light? Uh, you're light. He doesn't disdain, complete disdain. Uh, it's fourteen. Some guys opened this game last night like ten and a half. I mean what

they were thinking. I have no idea. We talked about diminishing returns. There's returns are gonna have to really diminished to cover this game. I can tell you that my numbers come to eighteen and a half. I'm gonna open fourteen and after there's no fourteen and a half out there. I'm trying to get ahead of the game here. I guarantee, come kick off, I'm gonna be rooting for Jacksonville. Come in and get your fourteen and a half off me as soon as I post them in nine oh five.

And by the way, backtrack one game too, I'm opening New England and a half. I'm just gonna get ahead of that game to look at him again. I'll be the only three and a half in the world. Come on in and play it. Yeah, for those who are wondering again, if not listening to guessing lines before, I'm in a cocoon for yesterday. I don't know the numbers I come up with. I think with the lines will be. Christie tells me what he's going to post right after

the show. These lines are not available to the South Point till the show ends in a little over an hour from now. And within that exercise, we tried to extract some value from a betting standpoint for the upcoming week's games. Usually, and this has been tried and true over the years, our first instincts on this show are better than any other instincts we have the rest of the week. Yeah, it's really true. Here's like three half points I'm giving you. You want to go play numbers

that aren't there anyway? You can take six on the vikings. You think three and a half on the Panthers, you think four and a half on the Bills. No, nobody else has those come on on the early window here, I believe probably yeah we are. Yeah, this is the girl the windows, small late windows. This hate that. It's one of those uh wonderful scheduling. How many late games? Only three three late games while we're still in the

we're still we're going to Ohio Battle of Ohio. Cleveland's Cleveland at since al right, here's where the Steelers come involved. Because Cleveland losing to the Steelers yesterday fifteen to ten. The Cleveland Browns are alone in the last place in the a f C North at four and four. They had three straight games where they scored seventeen points or fewer. Baker Mayfield twenty of thirty one for two twenty five,

no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked four times, but boy when he got a first down running, boy was he excited. At one point, Sit down, Baker. The Cleveland Browns only had three hundred six total yards. They only had nineties six rushing, which is really where their bread is buttered. They had a fourth and one of the Pittsburgh thirty nine to start the second quarter up three to nothing, they went for it and failed. That's probably the right play at thirty nine eight most penalty yards

entering week eight. They tamped that down a bit. But here's the deal. Like Kevin Stefanski, who people love to love, they were down fifteen to ten, he had all of his time outs left. It was fourth and twelve with the Pittsburgh twenty six. Late in this game, they went forward sta of kicking a field goal, in complete pass, you had all your time outs left, kick a field goal, you get the ball back. All you have to do is kick a field goal to win. Nope, they went

for it. People allergic to field goals, they loved one for it on fourth Downd. That's why diminishing returns. We may have to amend that a little bit. They may not be so diminishing. They're playing Cincinnati. We talked about Cincinnati being the survivor killer yesterday, and we talked about the end of that game and what happened. But that's three losses this season. All three losses for the Bengals

this season by a combined nine points. Joe Burrow thirty four for two fifty nine three touchdowns, one picks at three times, mixing fourteen for thirty three and a touchdown on the ground, four catches for fifty eight and a touchdown receiving Higgins four seven Boyd five or sixty nine in a touchdown Chase three forty two and a touchdown. Again. They had a fourth and goal of the Jets three we mentioned early in that game. With two o nine left in the first quarter, down seven and nothing, they

went forward. Burrow got sacked, but Mike Wait through a pick, so they got it right back and scored. But again they were plus two inter and overs. They were plus three in the first half and only led by three at half time. They were plus two in turnovers for the game where the Bengals, and again the power ratings are in shambles. Cleveland Cincinnati. I said, Cincinnati minus three. I didn't know what else to say. Um My power

rains come to two and a half. It's mostly two and a half with some juice on the favorite three, with some juice on the dog. My power rains come to two and a half. I'm gonna open two and a half. Um, I'm gonna take issue with you on one thing. When Baker Mayfield got up and you know xuber and after I think that was a message because he he got hit on his left shoulder, which we know was damage. You know, so he got up. I think the show the fans and his teammates says, hey,

I'm still in it all the way. So I don't down maker Baker because he landed on his throwing should he But he got hit on his left shoulder, which was bad. So and by the way, we're talking about guys who are gonna sign multimillion dollar contracts that probably don't deserve it. Hello Baker. But I don't root against him. I really don't because I want the league to do well. But anyway, uh, like I said two and a half, Before we go any further, I want to tell you

so Ryan Ground, he's in my office. He's the general manager here. When we put in the uh we put in the Bengal score, and yet this is Ryan come here. He comes out. He takes a look at their results from that one game. His eyes got like this big. It was a good result for us. Second time, you remember all times. Second time, I don't want to tell the other shore. We'll save that for some other times. The second time that I saw Ryan's eyes get like

yeah in a good way. That was a carnage inducing survivors. That's for sure. We'll come back more guessing lines. A numbers game at Visa, these sports betting network, the Numbers. This is a numbers games our number two of the numbers game in Visa, the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa that food boats Link game plus I heart radio YouTube TV. However you're taking us in. We appreciate it. Chrissie Andrews of course, the star of guessing lines. How

many years have we been doing this? Only seems like forever. It's been enjoyable, ever since day one. This is This is a tweet from Tommy Collins at Tommy Collins on a five hour flight listening to the best show on Visa. Does Chris take into account for any potential weather in his first numbers? Thank you for a great listen, Um, And I answered him already. No. I assume clear, clear, and fast is what I assume at this point, and by Tuesday I started looking at weather. Okay, that's that's

a solid question, Thank you, Tommy. That's a good question. This from Joe Peter Joe Peter, who's gonna be on the show tomorrow. Cannot wait for Joe Peter, he says, Um, I have no signal in the room. He arrived at the South Point for he's doing stuff here in town. He's coming to the show tomorrow. He says, no problem. You guys are so enjoyable in the morning. I should book this as a condo and have my mail delivered here. I hope we got one of the hardwood floor rooms

here at the South Boy, lovely south Wind. So your fans wait here you go? How are you doing back there? All right? Next guessing lines still in the one o'clock eastern again, big one o'clock eastern window. This week a Vegas at the Giants. Vegas at the Giants. Okay, they won't be much to stay here because Vegas is on a bye. We're on a bye this week and the Giants have you have to play Giants play tonight. So I'm among the people who have the chiefs and survivor.

And so when a team like the Bengals loses and survivor on a Sunday but you have the Monday pick, you can't really get all that excited because you're like well, I'm glad that happened. But and I said this last week number of times, I'm on a double digit. All of us who have the Chiefs Tonight and Survivor are on a double digit or thereabouts home favorite in a standalone game, and we're terrified, just terrified. Oh please, Chiefs, chiefs, please,

could you win this game? We appreciate it. Survivor is about the heat up. Um, there's nothing else to really say. We'll see what the Giants student night. They should have some players back tonight, though, namely Darius Tony on offense, a couple other offensive players Barkley and they're both out. Oh, Barkley and Galladay are out. Okay, uh, Raiders by four on the road. Once again, I like your number better. It's three pretty much solid. Really, Um, I'm gonna open three.

I really like three. That better. But I'm worried about tonight. I too, am worried about not so much the Giants looking good, but the Chiefs looking terrible. Yeah, and I have some reasons that I would want the Chiefs to at least be okay, leave it at that, Okay, Um, so I'll open to you, but I think that's light. I really do I think that this number should be high.

It's Chrissie's wave saying he might know what I'm talking about. Um, you know what the thing about the Raiders is, we were we do our power rankings, but not only Jeff and I, but Matt Brown, Kelly, Bill and I probably time action and the one thing that we all kind of agreed on, at least Matt Kelly and I was like, I do think we we possibly are disrespectful of the Raiders because they were not in our top ten, none

of us. Well, like I said, I try to keep numbers, you know, if I have a grading system, Not that I'm married to it or anything like that, but I definitely let it influence my power ratings. And Raiders are probably higher than what your perception would be. So that's one reason I have them higher. By the way, I had a note here the Jets going on the road. On the Jets, if you look back, I've been much better at home. Just the note that I had, so I I know you were like the Jets this week.

I do not. I mean I don't love them. Don't I have a mark next to the Colts. I like them, I love I'd be careful, what's the next, Jeff, Come on now, you gotta like the future Hall of Famer there, Gil, let's go. I love a quarterback controversy between Mike White and Zach Wilson White, Micael White or Michael Micah White. That's the whole thing, all right. Next shouts Atlanta at New Orleans. We're still in the morning. This is the final one o'clock Eastern game. Boy, that's gonna suck in

the afternoon. Next week, Atlanta at New Orleans. The three and four Falcons the five and two Saints. So the Saints become the team in the driver's seat for those last two playoff spots in the NFC. They're only a half game behind the Bucks in the a f C and the NFC South. Now Atlanta we mentioned loses to Carolina. Atlanta now alone in last place in the NFC South.

It's a losing record for the Falcons through seven games for the fourth straight season, so it doesn't matter who's been coaching through seven games four years in a row.

Losing record through seven games, Ryan Mattie Ice seven for one six, one touchdown, two picks at three times only two total yards of the Falcons there were only three of ten on third down, and they got the word before the game that Calvin Ridley, who missed a game a couple of weeks ago for personal matters, but he announced, yeah today that he is stepping away from football to focus on his mental well being. So there's a big fantasy player for something, obviously a big cog in the

Falcons wheel. After you know, Julio Jones is no longer with the team. You figured Calvin Ridley would take up some of those, uh, some of that play and now he's he's stepping away, and so one would think Kyle Pitts would be the beneficiary of that, but you know, he dropped a big pass yesterday. Also, it's just it's a team that's in turmoil there at the Saints. Saints yesterday, I mean this year. Before we go any further, yeah,

I mean, well that's the thing we don't know. Jamis yesterday six of ten for fifty six and then if you have one touchdown. Note Pis he was sacked zero times, four carries for forty yards. He was tackled. It was it was flagged the horse collar. It wasn't really a horse collar, but it sort of had the effect of a horse collar, whereas Jersey was grabbed and his knee was wrenched and that was the end of James yesterday.

We don't know what his status is. Trevor Simeon he of Broncos fame from some years ago, and I used fame lightly. Trevor Simeon ended up coming in the game. He was sixteen of twenty nine for one fifty nine one touchdown note picks. He was only sacked once and he got the job done, or at least that New Orleans Saints defense got the job done in a big way. But Trevor Simeon did nothing, nothing at all poorly in this game. Nothing to lose it for him, that's for sure.

The Saints end up plus three in turnovers against the Bucks. They really are Tom Brady's kryptonite. There was a fourth and one of the New Orleans forty four with eleven oh one left in the first quarter. The Saints went for it. Camara got stuffed and you figured, okay, well this is gonna be the Bucks day. Nope. Down twenty seven to twenty six two minutes left in the game, Tampa Bay had two time outs left. The Saints curiously

called passes incomplete, incomplete, first and second downs. Tampa Bay calmly used one of their time outs after third down, after the third down play was short of their sticks. That was the sixteen second That was the six and a second drive, sixteen seconds off the clock, up a point, incomplete, incomplete, and then Tampa Bay used the time And I was just about to say great things about Peyton go ahead,

that's right. What was Sean Payton thinking? I saw this that I hate stats like this, but I just thought i'd have to say it. Teams that apparently have one on Monday Night football this year or seven and oh the following game this season, some little quirky, meaningless dad, But of course I had to say it. Apparently anyway, New Orleans wins it. That's a huge win for New Orleans. Just a gut gutty win for the Saints beating the Bucks. We'll get to Tom Brady's you know, stats against the

Saints and against everybody else. I would say the Saints will be six point favorites at home against their division rivals. What are you assuming about Winston? I'm assuming. I'm assuming no Winston. I'm assuming the same thing. Yeah, I've heard even some guys saying today he might be out for the year. The issue becomes Taysom Hill got concussed on October h against Washington, he still was not cleared to play. Yeah, I'm not a doctor, but I mean I know those

don't lingering off a long time. So are we looking at Trevor Simmons or that's what I'm looking at. I said six because that is really good. Okay, considering that I'm that, I'm thinking at Simeon. I made the number seven. I think Atlanta is just god awful, just terrible. They got bet against yesterday by wise guys. I agreed with the move. Um, if you remember last week going into that game, I made it pick him. Uh. So I agreed with a move on Carolina. I think Atlanta is

just horrible. Uh even though the sixteen second drive notwithstanding, I still say great things about Peyton. You know, I've said it before in the show. Not many people agree with me, but I think Drew Brees a little overrated during his career. I think Peyton made him that much better. And here you go, Trevor Simmon. You know what is his qbr Yes? Really good. Yeah for a guy he looked very comfortable. He looked like a pro. All these guys, Cooper, Rush, Trap, Simeon,

Mike White, he looked really good. All that being said, it's five and a half pretty much everywhere. I'm gonna open six. There's another half point. If you want to gobble that up, be my guest, you'll have the Falcons going for you all week. You know, good for you. I think I like the Saints. Yeah, I like the Saints. To Jeff, you have a couple of things on this

on this yeah, two two quick things. UH p f T Pro Football Talk reporting that the expectation is Taysom Hill is going to clear protocol and be available on Sunday for New Orleans. UH. Jane Slater Ian Rappaport, both of NFL Network. Jamis Winston apparent. A c L injury is what we're going with. UH, potential damage to mc L. Sean Payton right there and in the postgame press conference used the word significant injury. That's never a good sign. So you're looking at UH, you're probably looking at a

a long time without Jamis here for New Orleans. A Taysom Hill Trevor Simeon situation. Now well after the way Simeon played. I think I go with with Simon, and I really think I would. Well, you know, Sean Payton can't get himself enough. Taysom Hill though, Cordell store kind of you know the way they used Cordell who was like an okay quarterback but were great in that slash role that they used him. Yes, you know, but I would go with Simeon. And I like the Saints. Some

just look at me. We have more games to get to, but so far like I like the Ravens. I like the Saints. Dare I say I like the Jets. Al You're caught. I got a mark next to the Colts. I like the Colts. You are sending me the yellow caution blinking light. You're a big boy. You're gonna do what you want. I am a large boy. STE want to do what I want here. Um okay? Uh So we have three more afternoon games to get to. What

is it three afternoon games left? And of course two prime time and two prime time okay, and then we gotta review what we have teaser legs we have to discuss. I don't even want to talk about Survivor because I haven't gotten through Tonight's game yet, but I suppose we will as well because next week, Oh my goodness, do you have a lot of games to choose from. Oh again, forty plus percent of Survivor Circus Survivor knocked out with the Bengals lost yesterday. We'll come back. We'll do it all,

all those games and all that. Right here, Visa, these sports betting network numbers Betting Network. We have some great news for our Colorado based Visa fans. We've partnered with Altitude Sports Radio and starting today, all of your favorite Visa shows, including this one, could be heard live on Altitude Radio nine fifty am in Denver. We're extremely excited about the partnership that brings Visa into a great sports

city with a growing audience of sports bettors. Tune into hear all Visa shows live on Altitude Radio nine fifty am in Denver starting today. Information I probably should have been told about before I went off on the Broncos earlier. But hey, call him like a season. What are you gonna do? By the way, Also, Altitude Sports Radio shouldn't be Elevation Sports Radio. Oh here we go, it's we

point there now as well. I think there's an error you were asking you sent off air that you're watching Curb last night, Curb your enthusiast, and then you were saying, oh, you wanted Susie Esmen to do this thing for you? You know, have I told you this story? But not back in my uh in my Johnny and Nitis San Diego Charger Year of Music Radio, My Joe Namith Rams year. You know the year where you know you're out, but

you're not quite out. Uh. She came on the morning show that I did, Oh I didn't, and off air I had her for I was like, for thirty seconds, could you just curse it me like you would, and then I'll beat out the parts and run it back on air. So she did for thirty seconds. She just went off. I would. I'd give a thousand dollars that probably isn't watching her to her favorite charity to put

a message on my phone. But she has to use the word or the phrase what she calls Jeff fat yeah, somewhere mixed, and I'm sure she'd figure out how to do that. She did. She was like, Gil you far Rid, Oh yeah, I love Susie. On that show, she invited us to the comedy show later that night that she did in San Francisco. Had Jeff Garland, I was honest. I've heard she's nothing like. Oh no, nothing at all, nothing at all. Um. Okay, now we're to the afternoon games.

What do we got? Only three afternoon games? This sucks. Yeah, very lame of the league after doing a really nice job of distributing the wealth in these games. The first eight weeks of the season, Chargers at Eagles is four oh five Eastern. Talking about our power ratings going up in shambles. Charges are down to four and three. Now they're at the three and five Eagles. Justin Herbert yesterday eighteen of thirty five or two three, two touchdowns, two picks,

act three times. What's going on with the Chargers? All of a sudden Eckler always fills up a s a statue eleven for sixty four on the ground with the touchdown, six catches for sixty keenan Allen six or seventy seven at a touchdown. They went for it on fourth and one to New England seven in a scoreless game. Less than four minutes in they converted it went up seven to nothing. The Brandon Staley go for it part of the game though he has gotten a little more nitty

with the fourth downs lately. Poker turn Philadelphia. All right, so this is another one, Jeff? Is this the Is this the moment where you do the Dan Campbell mia culpa from last week? Is this when? Is this s where you do it? I think all of us probably at Philadelphia destroys Detroit forty four to six. Who was that? Jalen Hurts completed nine forward passes. He was nine of fourteen for a hundred three yards, no touchdowns, no picks, He wasn't sacked. Seven carries for seventy one yards, though

Boston's got twelve for sixty for two touchdowns. Howard Jordan twelve or fifty seven and two touchdowns Goddard six or seventy two catching. They held Detroit to fifteen first downs in two eight total yards. Just destroyed him. They didn't. They didn't do anything. Forty four to six. But the Charges will be favored despite them being on the road. I'll say the Chargers by four. Wow, you're a little high.

My power rains come to three. It's pretty much two and a half everywhere I see one three with juice on the dog, I'm gonna open the Chargers. I mean you look at the Eagles. Uh first n hurts again. QBR I like to use. It can be pretty decen eighty six point three, I understand. And by the way, um, Justin Herbert had the second lowest qb are the day sixteen point oh. The only one that beat him out on the low end was Trevor Lawrence eleven point eight.

It's not good for Justin Herbert, envy pet no, no, that he's gonna need to make a comeback. I'm gonna open two and a half. Just I don't that I lowered the Chargers enough on my power rais. I did not raise the Eagles, narry a bit off of that wind. I was not thoroughly impression. Charges have to be lowered in the power raings. But two and a half at the Eagles, I love the change. I made it three. My bar rains come to three. So I'm not gonna yours.

You're posting three, No, I'm posting two and a half. And you know I don't want to. I don't want to play that game yet, because you know the two and a three they love, because everything's an eleven and ten here, you know. So I'm gonna stick with two and a ha for now. If I see a trending up, I'm gonna go up quickly. Sorry I step on you saying you didn't want to dicker. My apologies. Another bingo where we at. How great was that catch in the

Pittsburgh game. Unbelievable touch catch? I really like that kid Ben State kids to um okay, I like the charges, I like I like way too many of these games that terrifies me. What's next? Didn't count me on the Chargers bandwagon for that one to Philly. Philly is still not any good. I don't care. Did you beat Detroit

by a thousand? Uh? This is a good one. Green Bay at Kansas City, Green Bay extra rest, Kansas City short rest, green Bay having played on Thursday, having beaten the beforehand undefeated Cardinals no longer Kansas City still yet to play the Giants tonight. Aaron Rodgers and that win over the Cardinals twenty two of thirty seven for one four two touchdowns, no pick sack once A j Dillon seventy eight, Aaron Jones fifteen fifty nine and a touchdown

on the ground seven catches for fifty one yards. Remember, Green Bay was plus three in turnovers on Thursday night toppling the Cardinals from the perch of the unbeaten Green Bay is seven and one lost their opener, yes to New Orleans right with thirty eight three or thirty five three something, And then I remember I had him in Survivor of the second week, and it like, wasn't that

comfortable of a win over Detroit? If I'm not mistaken, I can't remember they had a time of possession advantage, by the way, Thursday night of thirty seven thirty five to twenty five. As well in Kansas City, again we haven't seen them play. They played a night their favored by what's the what's the current number on the Chiefs over the ten or ten and a half? And yet even in eleven and reary. So here we go, here

comes the Chiefs money. Um, this has I put Kansas City minus three because we haven't seen the Chiefs yet, and I still think for a team that has a losing record, we hold a special place for the Chiefs where the market will not allow them not to be favored by the standard field or what used to be the standard number. I see it two and a half Kansas City two and a half or three with juice on the dog, I'm definitely open two and a half my numbers come to pick another money Corn will come

in and beout. The Chiefs be my guest. Uh. And I retweet a lot of Jeff Vogel stuff, especially his analyses. You know, one one tweets worth. He puts in a lot of statistics and uh. He talks a lot about the home field advantage. It is pretty much not there and I can't give And I'm even giving Kansas City to a grudging two points for home field. I don't

even know why I'm doing it. I still come the own me a pick them in this game, you know, And I, like I said, I try to be as objective as possible making these numbers in my grading system that I use as a guide. Um that I think this game should be a pick. I'm I'm not sure why Kansas City should be a favorite, whether it's home or not. I just don't see it. I think pick them's fine. I think went to three and there are some threes out there. You could definitely mark me down

on Green Bay. Kansas City with a bit of antagonistic relationship with their fans right now, as well, some of the players speaking out about how spoiled the fans have been. Really want a Super Bowl, got to a super Bowl. Now you guys are complaining about us. That's me paraphrasing. That always works well for the players when they go after their fans, especially when you go to do endorsements. I don't know, I mean, I'll say it again, Kansas

City is a terrifying proposition. Tonight, just win this game for those of us who have the chiefs uh tonight in sir vivor um teaser legs? Thus far, should we wait to teaser legs at the end? Maybe we should wait to teaser legs at the end because right and as I'm thinking about it, I guess Baltimore essentially to beat Minnesota would be a teaser leg is great value though you know, no, not great value because you're not going through. But let's talk about the Wong teaser legs. Jeff.

By the way, Jeff Focal has a good thing about that. These quotes actually captain Jack Andrews. How about the Ralph Michaels thing that he tweeted out. I thought that was good though some people disputed that, but I think that was pretty good, and we had a five showed up. Yes it was a dog by five, but still by five. So long teaser legs that we've gone over so far would be Carolina. Would you want to take eight and a half on Carolina versus New England? Did that end

up being two and a half by the way? Uh? Not on my boards on the three and a half. Okay, never mind that I'm looking at my guesses. Um so I don't know that we have we don't know two and a half. Get the Browns up to eight and a half. Yeah, the Bengals Cowboys will be outside of teaser range. Eagles you could take eight and a half. Would you say Bengals? You mean the Browns would be an The Browns would be a teaser leg and uh and indianaplsis too high, so that's not one. So really

only the Browns is that the only? Like traditional unless you're telling me that the Eagles you could catch eight and a half on the Eagles. So Eagles and Browns and maybe the and maybe the Packers the Eagles Browns do that on my board? For Oh, the Packers would be a obvious teaser like, wouldn't it? I would say so, except the high total fifty five and a half. Still still, you know, I think that's but that's a good point.

The Eagles. I would not rush to bet at all because I think the Chargers could blow them out, and then the Browns. I would the Browns. The thing about the Browns every week, so you have to check the injury report because you have no idea who's playing. Injuries have totally eviscerated that season for them. They have. And I asked Lombardi last week, you know, the trade deadline is tomorrow. We haven't even talked about that because got to talk about the Deshaun Watson news that came down

over the weekend. But I asked Lombardy, would they with the Browns trade O'Dell Beckham Jr. And he was like, who's going to take the contract? He's right, you know, I know I've mentioned her on the show, and I'm

pretty sure he's listening right now. I know a guy that knows a guy, and those people in the Giants organization, they were very happy to get rid of them, coming back, guessing lines, numbers, getting visa Gil Alexander, Christie Andrews and Jeff Parlay is here as well in case you missed the big injury news this morning, both Adam Schefter and then later Jake Glazer sort of specifying what's going on,

report that Derrick Henry could be done for the year. Wait, here's another one right there, coming up, Jameis Winston out reportedly out for the season. Okay, so there you go. So we could have Derrick Henry done for the year because of a broken metatarsal bone in his foot. You may have seen him limping on the sidelines yesterday. I went back in the game, didn't get a whole bunch of run to that. But uh, that obviously would be just a massive loss for all football fans, certainly for

the Tennessee Titans. No player means more to his team non quarterback, and maybe even quarterback quite frankly, although not to align than Derrick Henry because he is He's a special quirk to that offense. Um. And now we have Daniel Hunter. Some Daniel Hunter news for Minnesota, not obviously as big, but still yeah, I'll have news on the Titans situation in the second as well. Daniel Hunter feared

to have suffered a torn pectoral muscle out. Indeed, uh Ian Rappaport and Mike garre Follo of NFL Network on that report, having an m R I this morning to

confirm that diagnosis. Uh, he would be out for the season if it is a torn peck and that look again, the free agent market, the trade market not great for running backs but also for me I in rappaport, the Titans expected to work out Adrian Peterson too, uh, in the wake of Derrick Henry's injury, which, hey, look, Adrian Peterson one of the greatest running backs of all time,

but uh, completely done. As listen, I don't know, you know, I don't wanna, I don't wanna say anything negative about Adrian Peterson because you know, people laughed when when Washington picked him up, and he played pretty pretty well with

Washington given his age. So I don't know, but yes, that's where we are, that the Titans are gonna work out Adrian Peterson and and as as far as again, today's Baseball Writers Association of America announcing finalists for all the major awards tomorrow is not only the first college football playoff rankings, but it's also the NFL trade deadline.

And Adam Schefter reported in the middle of the night, I think This tweet came out because I I went an entire Sunday without realizing this till yesterday evening that apparently nothing's gonna happen with DeShawn Watson. That's the word that he is just going to remain in this purgatory situation with the Houston Texans and that will be the end of that. Well, they feel they want value, but who want who wants him? I mean you want you know,

your quarterback often is the face of your franchise. Went this got to be the face your franchise. You don't at this point without legal stuff, Yeah, I mean at this point. Yeah, it's too big of a risk. And the only team that he appears to have cleared or appeared to have accepted as a trade Miami. They came out with that strange statement last week where it was like, yeah, we'd like him, but we want everything resolved. Well things

aren't gonna get resolved by tomorrow. So that's where we are. Which, by the way, let me just say this from an NFL standpoint, Roger Goodell should be counting his lucky stars because if something happened and Deshaun Watson played this year, oh the backlash that was gonna come on that. But we'll see twenty four hours away a little plus twenty four hours plus away from the NFL trade deadline. All right, Last afternoon game, last of three, another divisional rematch here

Gil Cardinals at Forts Cardinals at Niners. Cardinals with the extra rest, losing to Green Bay last Thursday night, Kyler Murray was thirty two and defeat to seventy four, no touchdowns, two picks, sacked twice. Again, the Thals were minus three in turnovers and we're out time of possessioned if you will. Thirty seven twenty five San Francisco yesterday they get to

three and four. Jimmy Garoppolo seventeen of twenty eight for three twenty two, no touchdowns, no picks, wasn't sacked, five carries, four yards, two touchdowns. How about that little line under Kyle Shanahan. Now these nine the Niners are twenty five and eleven straight up in Garoppolo starts seven and twenty eight with all other quarterbacks Elijah Mitchell, who they seem to like more than Trace Sermon eighteen for one thirty seven and a touchdown debo six for one seventy one

Yesterday are you even got on the box score? There you go, four for forty five. The biggest player that game though, third and nineteen at their own sixteen seven twenty eight left in the third quarter, down sixteen to nine, Garoppolo quick little out pass, the Debo Debo takes it eighty three yards, leading to a touchdown three plays later, and that game changed on that Yes, Justin Fields had a spectacular play, which we'll talk about later, but that

was the biggest player that ball game. And the Niners beat the Bears thirty three to twenty two, covering in the process covering the four and a half point to US Bread Arizona minus four on the road. My numbers come to three and a half right now, I see two and a half Arizona. I gotta tell you, talking at downgrade Arizona, I mean, they really easily could have

won that game. I mean, if the guy turns around and catches the ball in the end zone, I mean, I'm not the Castles versions I nim I don't know what happened, but he easily could have won that game. They had three turnovers and still in it all the way in the end. You know, I've been very slow to come around on Kyler Murray. Still am a little bit uh, definitely on Kingsbury the coach, but nonetheless, um jeez, I my number came to three and a half years four,

it's two and a half, pretty much a blanket. What the hell M an open three. Let's see if they want to take it, they probably will. Is the polar opposite of the last two weeks in the NFL, like I like way too many games this year this week and liked nothing, virtually nothing the last two weeks. Like Arizona. I like Arizona. I like them a little bit crazy, but I like him at two and a half. My number comes at three and a half. I am in

open three. So there's there's You want to come down South Point in half an hour, there's gonna be a lot of half points for you. Jeff looks like he ate something bad. No, No, it's that's a shame that the numbers opening where it it was, because I was ready. If it was four four and a half. San Francisco would have been a bet for me this week because I thought they should have won that game in Arizona. While running the wing tea with Trey Lance. That's right,

the win t game alright, Sunday night football. Yeah, the uh, the the air kind of gets sucked out of this one with the Henry news. But Tennessee at the Rams. Yeah, So this is what I was saying earlier again, Derrick Henry to undergo an m r RI today to find out the full extent of the injury. It also could

be one of these situations. Let me just also point this out because I have some medical folks on the side, so of hinting here, but this is the Adam Schefter tweet from earlier that Titans running back Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season ending foot injury during their thirty thirty win win over Indianapolis yesterday. That, according to ESPN Jay Glazer, adding later hearing Derrick Henry broke fifth metatarsal on his

foot Nobe Bueno. So it also could be one of these things where if it is, you know, an injury, maybe it's also a he's out the rest of the regular season, could be back for a postseason thing, which you know, Tennessee's got six wins bank there, six and two, But man, is it going to be tough without Derrick Henry. If that's the case best record in the a f C.

Currently Tennessee at six and two. Tannehill was twenty two of thirty two for two sixty five yesterday and their win over the Colts three touchdowns, two picks, sack three times, two carries for twenty six yards and Derrick Henry himself was sixty eight again. Little did we know he had the broken foot. A J. Brown ten for one fifty

five and a touchdown. Uh. Tennessee had a fourth and two at the Indianapolis forty seven down set been team of fourteen with eleven thirty six left in the third quarter. They went for it and converted it again. Just a little fourth down corks these days. Tennessee overcame eleven penalties for a hundred and sixty one yards yesterday, still one. I was talking about this with Michael Bonnisana, who won

the Booby Prize in circum Millions last year. Do you ever remember a team come back from more fourteen point deficits than the Titans do? Just anecdotally, just seems that way. They're playing the Rams Rams one. They crushed the Texans yesterday, but on the on the final score it was thirty eight to twenty two, they were thirty eight to nothing. Stafford was twenty one of thirty two for three or five,

three touchdowns, no picks, he wasn't sacked. Henderson Jr. Fourteen for ninety and a touchdown, Cooper Cup seven for one fifteen a touchdown, Van Jefferson three for eight eight um with Derrick Henry. And this is what I was saying earlier. Not only is it a big loss for football if he can't play, and for the Tennessee Titans specifically huge, but for sports betters in a sport pre flop at s where it is just so difficult to find anything

that doesn't end up being plinko at the end. That was the one thing in the pre flop markets that I think wasn't baked in properly. Like the we the market has become so anti running back that I don't think it properly accounted for the the marvel that is Derrick Henry. Now without him we lose that. You know, I think with him the Rams were gonna be a small I would have guessed the Rams a smaller favorite than what probably would have been because I do that

with the Titans every week. I am more into them than the market is. But now without him, it's got to be Rams minus seven, right something like that. It's really seven and a half. I mean I really hadn't had a chance to go through my power rating since the injury was an ounce. I had at five with Henry had at four. Okay, Um, you know, I mean it's seven a half. I guess that sounds okay, you know it'd be worth at least two and a half i'd say in the points. But a couple of notes though.

First of all, Derek Henry, how many more yards he has in the second place runner hundreds? It's like three d fifty. Yeah, you know that's all. But it's on the other side, Matthew Stafford number one in both passer rating and QB are away number one a QB are passer rating. He's actually second beyond Russell Wilson, who's not playing Tyrod Taylor, who played a game and a half. Uh. So, you know, I really think the Rams are playing some great football. I mean, I think you gotta open seven

a half see where it goes from there. I'm not sure what to say. By the way, haven't mentioned QB R in a couple of moments here. Uh, Stafford seventy point five yesterday. Also, uh, Jimmycaroppolo eighty five point six. Ye did played a healthy game? He did, He absolutely did. We'll come back Monday night, Football Survivor. What we like best guessing Lines, Numbers, game Visa, Sports Betting Nowek Skill, Alexander Numbers, game Vista, the sports betting Network. We get

tweets at beating the book. Ah, this is from hello person at bleed Nuts Blue sent me a piece from the as Central dot com report. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has an ankle sprain that could be a one to three week issue. So he was he was like, tread lightly, Gil, He's right, I should tread light. Who's their backup? Who is their backup? Who is the Cardinals backup? Colt McCoy

ended up in Arizona. He's confident. And by the way, that's a great question for a lot of these teams, Like did you know Trevor Simeon was the next guy off the back? I had no no clue whatsoever. This is from a Craig Parlay. I believe that's how it's pronounced. If the Saints make the playoffs with Trevor Simeon at quarterback. Peyton may be more deserving than Belichick. Craig Parlay Jeff Jeff Dad, I don't think he's wrong. I don't think he might not be wrong, might not be wrong, might

not be wrong at all. All right, Monday Night Football? What we got Monday Night football? Chris andrews Umbie Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Chicago Bears, boil boy. The Bears three

and five, the Steelers four and three. Justin Fields yesterday and the loss against San Francisco nineteen seven for one seventy five, one touchdown, one pick, sacked four times, ten carries for one oh three and a touchdown that included the type of play that they hope in Chicago they will get to see from Justin Fields over and over. A game was fourth and one at the San Francisco twenty two. The Bears were down twenty three to sixty

ninety three left in the game. They go for it, and Fields, who looked like he was sacked about three different times on this play, the young that the play of his young career, scrambles out, not only gets the first down, goes all the way to the house, and they went wild in Chicago still lost the game. Didn't convert the extra point after that touchdown immediately after they're the most euphoric moment. They missed the extra point. Oh god.

They were eight of fifteen on third down. They did have a thirty seven eleven nine time at possession edge, But all of that's very misleading when Deebos going eighty three yards on a play total yards for the Bears and defeat. And then there's your Steelers, who we talked about, beat the Browns fifteen to ten. Don't know what Kevin Stevanski was doing late, not kicking a field goal, But nonetheless, the Pittsburgh Steelers, they have Ben Roethlisberger three point oh

or whatever this is. They've won three Stags three straight rather since a one in three star Big Ben was twenty two of thirty four for two sixty six, one touchdown, no pick stacked twice, Nazi ninety one on the ground and touch down, three catches for twenty nine, Deonta Johnson six catches for ninety eight. Keep playing this game. Three to three, fourth and nine at the Cleveland ten left

in the second quarter. You thought this was going to be the key play because you thought Pittsburgh's gonna lose this game because of a vacat de fake field goal play where they send their great kicker Chris Boswell rolling out throws a you know, throw a pass to get a you know, a conversion. Excuse me, pardon me, yeah, fake field goal rather to instead of kicking the field goal to go up six to three, Oh, let's get the conversion. Instead, he gets popped and concussed. And oh,

by the way, the past was incomplete. By the way, was also fourth and one at their own forty eight, down ten to three with six six left and the third quarter, they went forward and converted. Down ten to nine, they had to go for two because of the Boswell injury because he was concussed, and though they got it, they had a holding penalty that negated it. So they went for two from the twelve failed. Then on the ensuing kickoff, they had to have their punter, Presley Harvin

the third kicking the ball. What did he do on the kickoff? Kicked it out of bounds. The d did bail them out, though, so the Steelers got to the to the victory, but it wasn't without overcoming all of that miss. You guys, which they did luckily for the Steelers. All that said, now, are the Steelers going to be a popular survivor pick next week? Because I got him at about a six point favorite here in Chicago. What's six and a half. I'm not I'm gonna open six amp.

My power ratings come a little higher eight, but I you know, I don't trust the Stealers and that as a favorite, certainly. A couple of comments on this game. The Bears, they're going crazy now over Justin Fields. He had a good game, he looked pretty good. They're so desperate for a quarterback. There just a quick little aside years ago, when Peyton Manning got hurt when he's playing with the Colts. Colts wanted up being two and fourteen

without Peyton. Some sports writer said, I'm gonna vote Peyton Manning the m v P because it's obvious that he was so u I mean, only a sports writer could come up with something that's stupid to vote for a guy that didn't play. And I remember writing it. This guy said, well, I'm gonna vote for Sid Gilman because the Bears haven't out of quarterbacks since Sid Gilman left. They're so desperate for quarterbacks. I vote for slinging Sammy Ball every year. I mean, why not give the Sid

Gilman vote on that same theory. Anyway, they're desperate for a quarterback. They did lose the game, did not cover, but I still raise him a little bit on my power rating. Tell you what I did like about the Steelers. They ran the ball. That real young offensive line looked pretty good yesterday. I don't know, let's not go crazy, but I think six and a half. I think it's fine. Like I said, even though my power rais come a little,

I do not trust the Steelers is a favorite. Even though I got my Steeler tie on Where's the Camera given to me by the great Roxy Rocks bro So Roxy Warriors for you and for the Steelers. If we lost, this would still be in the closet. This show gave me inspiration to give you a Christmas gift, by the way, too, and it has nothing to do with your tie. But that's for another time. Um. All right, so here's the deal. My answer to my own question is I don't trust

the Steelers for survivor. If I can't even get there yet, I have to win tonight. All those all those of us who have the Chiefs. We have to get by that first, but we'll get the survivor in a second. Uh what do we like best? Then? So though I like the Jets, you keep cautioning me, and I respect you, sir, so perhaps I should heed that caution. But I do like based on the numbers that we were talking about, we don't know what the story is with Houston, whether

it's Davis Mills or Torrott Taylor. So I can't really comment on that. But you're saying the New Orleans line against Atlanta was what that's five and a half? I'm opening six, Okay, So I like New Orleans. I think I like the Raiders. What did you open the Raiders at the Giants? I'm gonna open three. I I kind of like the Raiders too. I just don't want to mess around with that with the threes. You know this this place with the three three and a half, everything

is eleven and ten. I don't want to mess with that right now. Site unseen on the Giants, but it's three, and I think that's a cheap number on the Raiders. But of course we have to see what happens tonight. So I'll say I'll say New Orleans based on the numbers, New Orleans, the Raiders, UM, Baltimore, and the Chargers and maybe no, And I can't do that one now because knowing the Kyler Murray issue. So those are the four. I like? Those are the four. I favor every one

of those that you just said myself. I like the Colts. I know we're gonna the heads a part on that one. I like the Ravens, and I like the Saints. We agree on too. I kind of like, um, the Raiders and Chargers. I'm not marking them down yet. I mean, but if unless the Giants really do something to night, I would put myself with the Raiders as well. Terrifies

me that I like four of these. Again, polar opposite of the last two weeks parlay, What do you like think I'll take two favorites that are just shy of three off of Chris's numbers. I like the Bengals in a bounce back against Cleveland laying two and a half, and I like the Chargers laying two and a half against an Eagle team that there are three wins this year have come against Atlanta, a Sam Donald implosion, and Detroit. The team is still terrible guys. Cincinnati has lost all

three of their games by combined nine points. We all love the Chargers. You know what that means, be careful? Well, actually I could go wrong Hill. It means the Chargers win by one and we don't go it's probably will happened all right then, and then again again, I haven't gotten by survivor this week, so let me just caveat it with that. But if you look ahead to next week, the the biggest spreads on the board therefore will be

Indianapolis hosting the Jets, uh Dallas hosting Denver. We don't know about Miami yet because we don't know who's playing quarterback for Houston. New Orleans is kind of bigg ish, but not really five and a half, right, Buffalo is the biggest spread on the board at Jackson. They're the biggest one by for Baltimore will be big hosting Minnesota, and there you go, and then there's Pittsburgh hosting Chicago.

Those are the biggest spreads on the board. So there's a lot of options and none of them feel Besides Buffalo, none of them feel great. Well, of course, you can't use the team twice, so who I mean you used yet, probably haven't used the Steelers yet. I have not. The only one of those that I've used is the Colts. Yeah, you might not have used probably I'm us the Dolphins yet A want No, I haven't used that. So there's

a couple of a couple of ways ago. If it's Davis Mills, do you do you play a one in seven Dolphins team and survivor? Jeff is like, not a chance. That's stuff. I don't know. I don't trust that any less than I trust the Steelers. I'm serious, could really listen. I've seen this movie too many times. They win games they're not supposed to and lose games that they also

are not supposed to. Let me just get past tonight and then we can deal with all survivor the rest of the week tomorrow on the show, Joe Peter, you don't want to miss that about a whole array of topics. Um, we'll do that tomorrow. In baseball, the World Series continues. Thank you to Chrissy, Thank you to Jeff. Thank you for listening to numbers game. At least these sports betting that one