Check it down, man now, down now, and I'm just called the scoring all. This is a numbers game with Gill Alexander. It is a numbers game. Good Monday morning to you, Gil Alexander. Week ten Guessing Lines in the National Football League. It's Gill Alexander, of course, the start of the show each and every Monday. Here Christie andrews my Mitch book from behind the desk gear at the South Point Hotel Casino. Jeff Parlay is here as well. If you're new to the Monday edition of a Numbers Game.
Guessing Lines is a tribute, a nod to the old Stardust radio show of the same ilk from back in the day, and nod to old Vegas where the exercises that I'm in a cocoon. I hear the matchups, and I come up with a line, and Christie tells me what he is going to post, and within that exercise
we try to extract some firsthand value. It's the upcoming week's line, and of course what we do while doing that is look back at everything that happened yesterday and Chris, first of all, good morning to you, Good morning, Good morning, Jeff. We came in you came in the studio and Jeff, Jeff says, is that one of your top three days of all time? And I said, how about top one? And you said top one, best day you've ever had ever? Well,
here at the south point, here at the south point. Well, good for you, Well, thank you, thank you for me. Rud will split it. How's that sound? I will begin the show as I do always. Ladies and gentlemen, you can hit the survivor record scratch sounder. This is what happened. Yeah, it's the enemy. I did not survive the carnage. Who thank you for that as well as luck would have it. I was also on Jacksonville radio this morning, which was just even crueler than anything. I had the bills yesterday.
Um it in the end, the bills, and we'll get to the bills just looked horrible, just horrible against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Um. But my whole, my whole calculus on this was I didn't trust the Saints, probably correctly, so I was never going to take Dallas. I had already used Indian casey. I didn't trust Baltimore, and even though that got home, I think I was right not to trust that very lucky to get home. And so my whole thing was, you know what, I'm using one of
my two Thanksgiving plays. I'm using the Bills because I still have Dallas ready to go. Then I don't trust the Bills. I think the Bills are really fraudulent team. They haven't beaten anybody, So I'm gonna use them against Jacksonville. I'm gonna get away with that one because they're still they can bully up on Jacksonville. And then we'll talk
next week. Nope, let me last thing about this. Let me just rank what is so dist what is so distraught and what makes you so distraught about losing a survivor. A distant third is that you lost your money that you paid before they say, you don't even care about that. Second, the money you could have one or you thought you might be a participant in splitting at the end of the season. That's number two. But you know the number one thing is that you just don't get to play
it anymore. It's so much fun from a week to sirt basis. And anyway, those are survivor entries eliminated. Uh two forty nine were on the Bills. A hundred twenty two were on the Saints, A hundred eleven on the Cowboys. This was the remaining eleven hundred plus in circa and then some straight Rams, Raiders, Niners, and Bengals. We'll see about the Steelers tonight. That was the other team I didn't trust. So the Steelers lose tonight that I have
no regrets whatsoever. Yeah, well, you know, we talked a little bit about it before the show, so I'm not supposed to talk anymore. It was it was carnage for us to let's just put it. Okay, we'll leave it at that. What's number one, Jeffrey, Good morning, guys, Good morning, Thursday night. Baltimore a Miami, Yes, Baltimore, Miami Thursday Night. So Baltimore is a potential I would imagine survivor pick for those moving on who still have them. Baltimore comes
from way behind to beat Minnesota. They were down twenty four to ten. Baltimore was to Minnesota early in the third quarter, and we'll get to Minnesota layer good God. Three straight touchdown drives from the Ravens the middle, one of which the second of those three was in eighteen play, eighty two yard ten minutes and seventeen second drive and they outscored him. From being down twenty four to ten, they outscored the Vikings to seven the rest of the way.
Baltimore uh fourth and two at their own thirty six, down twenty four to ten with twelve thirty nine left in the third quarter, they convert eventually leads to a fourth and goal at the one in a touchdown pass to make it twenty four to seventeen. Subsequent drive, fourth and one at their own twenty seven, this time down to seventeen to nineteen left in the third quarter, they go for it, sneak convert that leads to score. That was the ten seventeen drive, the longest touchdown drive since
two thousand for that franchise. That's what it took. They just kept going for fourth and short in their own t ratory. They didn't care. They got it done and they win. Lamar forty one for two sixty six, three touchdowns, two picks, sack three times, twenty one carries for a hundred twenty yards, so three touchdown passes in a hundred twenty yards on the ground. He's twelve and oh straight up all time versus the NFC. Make of that what you will Marky's Hollywood Brown nine of nine catches for
one sixteen. The Ravens out first down to the Vikings thirty six to thirteen. Wow, good god, five hundred total yards. They out gained the Vikings five hundred three eighteen and the and the Ravens were minus two in turnovers and still won this game. They had a forty six oh four to twenty three forty in time of possession. Remember went to overtime, and so that's the Ravens coming back their six and two Yet again, seems you look up every year after eight games and they're six and two.
Miami beats Houston in the Battle of one and Seven's was the only it's only the second game in NFL history between two one and seven teams. They snapped their seven game losing streak to announced for the game, Like, how do they keep this under wraps all week? We don't know. It's like, oh, it's gonna be Jacoby percent. And I'm thinking all those people had the Dolphins. By the way, as soon as they announced Rod Taylor was
playing Friday, the Dolphins were out for me too. So they get Jacoby percent on top of it and they win snapped their seven game losing streak. Uh, there's four takeaways and five The Dolphins had four takeaways and five sacks, zero touchdowns allowed forty four one touchdown, two pick, sack four times. Waddle was as big as target eight for eighty three, but they were out gained by Texas excuse by the by Houston to seventy two to two sixty two.
Dolphins only had forty seven yards rushing the Hall's Houston to only fourteen first downs, had five turnovers to Houston's four toners. Maagin had five turnovers. You want a football game? Nine total sacks in this game too? This was This game was a picasso. There's no other way to say it. Dolphins seventeen, Texans nine. I'll say Baltimore minus seven and a half on the road Thursday night. Uh, you're you're pretty much right on It's well, it's mostly seven. I
see seven with little juice on the favorite. I see a seven flat see seven a half juice on the dog. My numbers are way higher than this. I gotta tell you, I think Miami is just horrible. I mentioned it last week. I think when you have one veteran team going against a non veteran team. I give the veteran team a much bigger edge in these Thursday night games. I mean, I had this thing double digits. You know, I think Miami is just horrible. They beat a horrible, horrible team
yesterday and looked horrible in doing it. And like you said, the Ravens here they are six and two once again. But you know, you look back at the Ravens, they have not been unimpressive. I mean they keep winning games. You know, somewhere psychologically we we we have not been impressed with them. But I think you look back, they're they're pretty, They're they're they're a legit team. Anyway, I'm
gonna open seven and a half flat. You want to come in and take that seven and a half, folks, lay eleven and ten, which you can't do anywhere else in the world at this point time. Be my guest, it's gonna be available for you right here at the South seven and a half, right on the money. All right, what's the first Sunday morning, Jeff Jacksonville in Indianapolis? Do
we have to already? So Indianapolis coming off the extra rest, Remember they beat the Jets on Thursday night almost the greatest backdoor cover in the history of mankind from the Jets. Not quite Wentz thirty two seventy two, three touchdown though picksack once Taylor nineteen for one seventy two, two touchdowns on the ground, hinds six or seventy four on the ground with the touchdown. Pittman Junior five catches sixty four
yards for and and a touchdown. They had five hundred thirty two yards in that game against the Jets, but they gave up four eighty six. But two hundred sixty rushing yards was the difference. They were plus two in turnovers. Okay, Jacksonville yesterday, talk about teams. You said Dolphins look bad in victory. Jacksonville beats the Bills nine to six, and and it's like, Okay, I don't know if this says anything about Jacksonville, but it sure says a lot about
the Bills. Who looks so soft yesterday? Trevor Lawrence fifteen of twenty six for one eighteen one eighteen chrissy, no touchdowns, no picks, He was sacked twice. He had a four point five four yards per attempt in the win. That's the second lowest such figure this season for a starting quarterback in victory. The worst of those numbers starting quarterback in victories coming later on the show. So four point five for yards for attempt for Lawrence and victory. The
Jacksonville Jaguars only had sixteen first downs. They only had two hundred and eighteen total yards were out Game three wanted to eighteen, but they were plus two in turnovers. They took the ball away three times. They had an NFL low two takeaways in their first seven games of the season. Now, there was a couple of things on this This is the first of all, was my first road Survivor pick of the year of the year two.
There was a couple of things right with the right tackle of the Jaguars probably false starts every single play and they never call it. But oh well, Buffalo had fourth and two at the Jacksonville thirty eight. They false started. That looked very much like an off sides on Jacksonville like the other way. And Scott Hanson, by the way, do you watch the red zone, the non direct TV red zone. Scott Hanson was killing me yesterday this Josh Allen sacking Josh Allen thing where he also had to
pick in a fumble recovery. He could not stop talking about it, maybe ten times. The Jaguars first win in North America, their first win in Jacksonville since Week one of last season. I hate myself, uh jacksonvilleity. I'll say Indie minus eight and a half sp the difference between the seven and the ten. It's well, it's ten, and I see ten and a half my numbers coming like thirteen. I am not buying into this jackson But I don't
like the Colts either. Well, I I've said it before and they you know, they definitely stumbled against Tennessee two weeks ago. I think the Colts are finally starting to get it together a little bit. I really do, and I think they've been kind of on that version. Now. Do I trust Carson Wentz all the way through? Not really? But do I trust him against Jacksonville. Yes. So I'm gonna open this ten and a half. I see mostly well, I see ten and ten and a half. I'm gonna
have ten and a half. If I see this trend higher in any way, shape or form, I'm gonna go higher. But right now we'll be at the top of the market, which is ten and a half. Um So but I I could have the culture. Nobody here. I could not play the Jaguars. I know they won. Yesterday looked ridiculously bad. It's so bad. And and for those who are like, wait, if Chrissie has it right north of ten, you must be running about the Jack Garth. No, I'm not. No,
I'm not oh so bad. You don't want to get trampled by everybody else running to that ten and a half just stands up, moving the women and the children out of the way to get rid of the fire. I will not be that guy. Okay, just starting guessing lines looking for value, Chris, he's posting the ten and a half. Then there ten and a half. Just starting. We'll keep it going with guessing lines for week ten,
reviewing all the carnage from yesterday. The National Football League, it's a numbers game at Feast and these sports betting networks, Gail Alexander, Christie Andrews do a little guessing lines for week number ten in the National Football You can't believe we're week ten. We got tweets at beating the book. Marcus Phillips, our friend Marcus from Spain, from Espana. He says, I'm getting off the hype train of Kyle Shanahan being a good coach personally has run out of excuses in
San Francisco. His record shows who he is, especially as he chooses the players every year, and he is very irregular. Irregular might be a language mediocre. I think, he says. I saw that tweet. I think Marcus is right on. I gotta tell you, well, yeah, we'll get to that. Yeah, well, Mike, this is Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus had this stat the other week. Kyle Shanahan's winning percentage is the coach of the San Francisco forty niners is worse than
Mike's single terries was WHOA, that's exactly wow. I reacted. I didn't believe it. I had to look it up. That's how flabbergas that was. Beat cricket man Mr Andrews has to be the most reasonable and likable bookie in the world. It's like getting gambling advice from your favorite grandpa. How do you take to that last word that's flattered about uncle, uncle, maybe grandpa Jesus. I have one grandson.
He's he's four. Yeah, he's a little exactly sorry sorry with that charitable gambler a lot of injury uncertainly last week factored into some guessing lines thoughts. Gil's eight and seven on the season, Chrissie seven and two in his last nine back on it. Uh here on numbers game tenn he's turned seven pacific. Thank you, charitable gambler. He's always there for the tweet before every guessing lines. Uh coach Bryant any tennis place today? Okay, well that kid. No,
we're gonna wait till. We're gonna wait till next year. Maybe maybe they'll do some finals men's and women's when we get to the uh till to the year long finals next week. Let's see. Jeff Kai Kendall, you are right. Losing in Survivor takes all the fun out of the season. What hurts worse is that there are only about six d left after nine weeks. In Enjoy your Day, and from Paul Carr our soccer guys on this show, he goes totally agree with the reasons to be sad about
being asked in Survivor. He said, I had the Cowboys. I already missed the clean mental gymnastics of it all. Yeah, I mean that's what it is. It's the not being able to play vaccinated man. I understand Chris Hansen is already working on at documentary about the Josh Allen Josh Allen things. Quote they said it was impossible. Unquote. It's so true. It's like, just stop already with it. Is that he knew. It's like he knew. I had Buffalo and Survivor. Uh. Tommy Rowe Gil's hatred for my beloved
Jags continues. It's okay, this team is going to continue to play hard and take down a couple more teams contending for the playoffs. I don't hate Youred Jaguars. I just lost it then and Survivor. Okay, what's next? Did Jaguars play hard? Wait? You really excited about that way yesterday? Second away from yesterday? Okay, this is actually a pretty
reasonable game. Cleveland and New England Cleveland, Okay. So among the results yesterday, I mean, I'm sure there were people who thought Cleveland would cover I'm sure that people who thought Cleveland will win. Did you think Cleveland would crush Cincinnati? Uh? Baker Mayfield fourteen of twenty one for two eighteen, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice. Nick Chubb fourteen for one thirty seven two touchdowns. But all you have to
know is the turnover difference. Cleveland was plus three in turnovers once again, a hundred and fifty three rushing yards. It's their seventh game this season. The Browns with a hundred fifty plus rushing yards. That's the most in the NFL. They did have ten penalties for eighty four yards. They gotta clean that up, Denzel Wards. So this was also a theme yesterday, the pick six theme. Every team that
had a pick six won their football game. Denzel Ward did it for the Browns ninety nine yard and interception return for a touchdown. I don't know if it's set the tone six minutes and two seconds into the game, but it did make it seven and nothing. Bengals did tie it at seven, set at seven seven, but by halftime it was twenty four to ten. Miles Garrett one and a half sacks. He's got an NFL high twelve
as well. And then New England. The New England Patriots are a half a game behind the Bills for the lead in the a f C East. I had more than one person yesterday text me, Hey, what are the odds on the Patriots to win the NFC. By the way, here's this ridiculous Monday night football stat that I feel compelled to repeat, even though I know it's ridiculous. Teams that have won on Monday Night football are eight and o their next game this year. I don't know what
that had to do with New England. I don't know how that got into this note that has to do with Kansas City. But okay, uh four and oh straight up? The Patriots are four and oh straight up on the road this season. Mac Jones yesterday in victory, there was so much of this again. Trevor Lawrence had a hundred
eighteen yards passing in victory. Mac Jones was twelve of eighteen for one thirty nine, one touchdown, one picksack twice, Romandre Stevenson ten carries for sixty two, two catches for forty four and keeping with the pick six name J. C. Jackson, one of his two picks was a pick six of Sam Donald, who went eighty eight yards of the house seven twelve left in the third quarter made it twenty one to six New England and from that point forward
it was Katie Barr the door. We'll get to Sam Donald later, I said Patriots by three here hosting Cleveland to five and four. Teams didn't know what else to make it. It's two and a half. That's exactly what my power rating has come to. We haven't mentioned qb R yet. You mentioned the Patriots and Jones. Uh, it's QBR seven point two. Really not not that great. Different team did look good, I mean no doubt. And I've
mentioned before I have like a grading system. Uh if you if you're grade over a hundred, you did pretty good. Both these teams graded over a hundred yesterday, so they did well. Baker Mayfield QBR yesterday eighty two point seven and you know, which is very good. By the way. A little thing with Cleveland fans. They've been looking for a quarterback since Brian's site. That's like they finally have a good one. Is he great? No? Is he worth the number one draft choice? No, he's good, but he's good.
They want to get rid of him, like for what for case Keenum. Is there anybody in the pipeline this year that I don't see anybody coming out of college that you have to have. This is your quarterback. He's pretty good. You know you can win with the skuy you know quick complaining all the time. Do you not remember all these other quarterbacks that you had for the last forty years. I said this all last year when
when Beckham didn't play. He now that now that he's gone for good and we'll find out today where he's going. He looks Baker Mayfield again, the word I used all last year when he didn't have Beckham on the field, unburdened like he Baker Mayfield can act as cool as he wants, but when Beckham's out there, he just it appears that he feels the need to get the ball
to Beckham just to keep him happy. Now without him on the field, and it always seems this way, he just feels like, you know what, you can play organically good football, doesn't have to worry about him. It's like you're walking, you know. With Beckham in the lineup and on the field, he was like walking on eggshells. You know, we've been in relationships like that with you're laughing, Yeah, I'm trying not to laugh, but we've been in that. But anyway, getting back to the number, it's two and
a half everywhere. I think two and a half is fine. I think three would be a take for me. Think two and a half puts it right in the middle. And by the way, if you look over the course of time, if you take the two and a half more than you lay it, you're better off taking, particularly like the Browns, despite how tempting, the minus two and a half, despite how tempting. That's why it's two and a half and not three, Jeffrey. The next one to
the Atlanta Falcons at the Dallas Cowboys. So Atlanta beats New Orleans and that was Coup's third game winning field goal this season. With zero zero left on the clock for Atlanta, Yeah, they were up twenty four to six over the Saints. Atlanta was in the fourth quarter. Then they gave up three consecutive touchdown drives to New Orleans. New Orleans final three drives, and then it was the big play Ryan to Uh to Cordarol Patterson that changed the game, that allowed for that field goal to be
set up. Atlanta deserved to win that football game. UH Saint Survivors go down. Ryan twenty three for thirty for three forty three from Mattie Ice two touchdowns note picks he was stacked twice. Call Darrel Patterson six catches for one including that sixty four yard or accounted for more than half of that yardage with one oh one left down the right sideline when they were down twenty five to twenty four, which set up the game winner. Only
thirty four rushing yards of the Falcons and victory. They had a fourth and inches at their own forty six, up three to nothing halfway through the second quarter. They got stopped. No consequence to that. We'll go through all the ridiculous fourth down. It's not ridiculous, but really we talked about it with Baltimore, how it really paid the way to their victory. UM, so Atlanta gets the win.
Dallas is six game winning streaks snap to Denver in probably as as crazy as the Buffalo result was Dallas getting first of all, not covering, getting beat all of that, maybe you thought, but to to be losing this game thirty to nothing at one point to Denver had to be the most shocking thing of the whole weekend. Dominated six game winning streak snap season lows and points sixteen and yards to ninety. Dak was thirty two, two touchdowns,
one pick, sack twice. UM, we'll get to the guessing of the lines here after the break, but fourteen first downs they were out time of possession if you will, by Denver forty eighteen forty eight. Dallas was minus two in turnovers. They gave up four hundred seventy yards actually be four hundred and seven yards. Zero points on their first eight possessions. Zero points Dallas on their first eight possessions.
And here's what it comes down to. Fourth and one at the Denver thirty eight opening drive, they got stuffed, fourth and two at the Denver twenty second drive, incomplete, fourth and one at the Dallas forty five now down seven and nothing, third drive, they punted. Then Denver had a fourth and fourteen at their own seventeen twelve fifty one left in the third quarter. Dallas down sixteen and nothing.
They blocked a Sam Martin punt and it was recovered by Jonas Griffith, but somebody touched the ball from the Dallas fourth and one at their own forty down nineteen and nothing, six fifty four left in the third quarter, dacked overthrows lamb fourth and seven at their own twenty eight down twenty seven and nothing. They go for it. They get a pick and then McCarthy leaves Dock in the game for some reason. They finally score, and then
he doesn't go on sidekick. Then they on him on a meaningless two point conversion later because why not get him hurt. We'll give me my guests and we get the actual line coming up. Numbers game decent sports betting number. We get tweets again at beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. Goldie Dawn, can you help me with my bingo card this week? Can you get Christos to say I want to see these young quarterbacks do well because I want the league to do well. Stay healthy. My
buddy from Australia a great guy. Uh, let's see baby, Hey mate, baby face assassin Gil. Why Shannahan not getting heat in San Francisco? Hey, he should be? He absolutely should be. Uh. Let's see Jerry and Drassi tell Christy Bernie Kozar not Brian said, yeah, I forgot about Bernie just because he was throwing a javelin all those years instead of a football. Kind of forgotten shot. Put Joe Peter.
Let's update the old Doyle Bruntson quote about the World Series of Poker of Poker rather quote the saddest day of the year is the day you get knocked out of the main events, which that to survivor. I agree, Joe. Joe was kind enough to be on set with us last week talking about profit UH seven two A j is like, are you aware that we had Josh Allen versus Josh Allen today? Yes, I'm a where Scott Anson. Oh my goodness. Okay, back to the uh the last
one we just talked about. So I was going through all those fourth downs for Dallas, and the point of going through that is it's it's we first talked about it through the prison of Brandon's Daley. But when you start to trail a football game in the year one in the NFL, you start to do this, you know, like fourth down Roulette thing on overdrive, right, and so
a deficit can become much bigger, much more quickly. And for those of us who bet on these things, these games now get out of control in a way that they otherwise wouldn't. So it's it's it's an interesting thing. I will say for this game Atlanta at Dallas, that Dallas will still be a ten point favorite. Yeah, it's pretty much nine. I see a little nine and a half. You know, I'm gonna open ten. And you know, I know Atlanta has suddenly come alive there four and four,
which I can't believe four four and four. But here's who they've beaten. Uh They beat the Saints with Trevor Simeon, the Dolphins, and the Jets. There are other win this year. Win number four was against the Giants some far less than impressed. Dallas looked absolutely horrible. Actually had no excuses, although maybe Dak wasn't a UH. And we'll get to Denver to Vic Fangio complaining because Dallas was going on fourth downs. I mean, coach your own team for anyway,
I'm gonna use ten. My numbers actually come higher than that, but I'm gonna be at the top of the market
at ten. I have no faith in UH in Atlanta, and I think Dallas does rebound with a victory over a team that's not very good, even though they're for and for And what about the stupidity of of of Dallas and Mike McCarthy leaving in Dak again for whatever reason, you're down thirty to nothing, they score and eat us, and then he doesn't go for You know, they don't go for the first of all, they score, and then
he doesn't go on side, that's the first thing. And then you leave dak in for another meaningless two point conversion, because what could go wrong there in terms of injury. Just the lack of you know, just being present sometimes kills me on this, Jeff, what's next? More for you? Gil? The Buffalo Bills at the New York Jets. Did you know Josh Allen sack Josh Allen? I should have curious. We're going to Josh Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.
Thirty one forty seven for two sixty four, no touchdowns, two picks stacked four times five of fifty on the ground, lost a fumble. Stefan Diggs the only guy who showed up really in the box score six eighty five. They outgained Jackson Bill as I said, three wanted to eighteen, but they were minus two in turnovers going into the game. Buffalo led the NFL with a plus thirteen turnover margin.
They had twelve penalties for eighteen yards. Let me just say this about the Bills before this game again, one of the reasons why I took them in Survivor, and the reason that I didn't care anymore that they were on Thanksgiving is because the Bills are fraudulent, fraudulent. Look, you you just talked about Chrissy. You just talked about who Atlanta beat? Um? Have you the Buffalo Bills this year? Talk about not beating You know what's the opposite of
a murderers row? They they have beaten this year. This is there. They're five and three. First of all, Now this is who they've beaten, Miami, Washington, Houston, a terrible Kansas City team in Miami. They've now lost to Pittsburgh, Tennessee and now Jacksonville. Everything they did yesterday, there was no point in that game where they felt like they were going to win that game against Jacksonville. And as those stats indicate, they couldn't get anything on the ground.
Then when they tried to throw a pass, Jacksonville was in the backfield. And then when they could give Josh Allen time, they were committing a penalty. They were terrible. They looked so soft in that game. They're at the Jets. You said Jets, uh? Mike White On Thursday seven eleven seven four eleven for nine five one touchdown. Note, Picks wasn't stack remember he had to leave the game because
that four arm pinky injury thing. Josh Johnson ended up twenty seven forty one for three seventeen, three touchdowns, one pick, stack twice, Elijah More seven carries for eighty four yards and two touchdowns. I'll say Buffalo, I mean, people aren't gonna like take that yesterday as anything, you know, diseased on the team. I will, but I still think the spread is gonna be double digits. So I'll say minus ten and a half. You're light, it's a thirteen. We're
doing that again. Yeah, my power ratings come to fourteen. You know, I'm not gonna go there, but you know, let's let's not let's not underestimate how terrible the Jets were defensively. That was one of the worst performances that I've ever seen. I mean, the Colts pretty much did whatever they wanted to uh qb r wise and you know, again backtracking a little bit here, Carson Wentz was eight against that Jet defense, who gave up two d fifty
seven yards rushing as well. So they were horrible. I'm gonna use thirteen, like I said, you know, put dicker on your bingo card. I'm not gonna dicker with that one. Uh, but you know, I just I think they probably still need to be thirteen because you mentioned that murders row that they beat the Jets will fit perfectly into that
Murders call. And that's why I took Buffalo yesterday. I'm like, well, I can get away with it again, bullying up on the Jaguars and the and the Jaguars scored nine points if you told me before they get Hey, the Jaguars only scored none. Oh we got through. Where can I lay the sixteen? Even though I had figured out Buffalo was a fraud, I was like, not today, they won't be though, what what? You can't explain that beforeance? They're so bad anyway, By the way, kind of backtrack one second,
back to Atlanta. Matt Ryan had the best QB or of the day, point eight. Maddie Ice, He's he's playing well, but the team is still bad. They're bad before the season and they are Pro football sports betting guy to Visa and asked to pick all the playoff teams. I had Atlanta as one of the NFC wild cards, and I can't four hit to leave them alive for that it's next year. Saints It Titans, Saints it Titans. Saints
lose to Atlanta. Trevior Simeon forty nine, two touchdowns, no picksack once, Alvin Camara thirteen carries for fifty and a touchdown, four catches for fifty four always filling up a statuet, ten penalties for seventy four yards. Though for New Orleans, they had a fourth and three at the Atlanta thirty six under nine minutes left in the second quarter, down three to nothing. Adam Troutman dropped the past, no real consequence. So Atlanta and New Orleans where we're messing up on
fourth downs, but there was no real direct consequence. Tennessee yesterday last night beats the Rams and beat some good twenty eight to sixteen. First of all, the biggest thing of this game, we had a referee with a beard. Did you notice that? Did not? I think that's the first in NFL history. Look up that Scott Hanson Tannehill was nineteen of twenty seven for one hundred forty three yards.
Our third game now where the winning quarter of I didn't even get to a buck fifty one touchdown, one pick, sack, three times twelve thirty six left in the second quarter. The Rams are three to nothing. This is the only sequence of the game you needn't know. Last night, third and fourth their own ten Stafford with a Carson Wentz like whirling dervish interception. Next play, two yard touchdown passes to us swim from Tannehill seven to three. Titans ensuing drive.
First play from scrimmage, first and ten on twenty one, twelve sixteen left in the second quarter, Keith Byard twenty four yards, pick six, fourteen to three. Essentially game over at that point because the next Tennessee drive after a four and out for the Rams, if you will, it was twenty one to three the Titans one, with sixteen first downs and a hundred ninety four total yards. They were out game three, one ninety four. Jeffrey Simmons three sacks,
one quarterback hit for quarterback hurries for Tennessee. Tennessee will be favored by four and a half. I believe in this game. That's my guest. I like your number way better, do you at it's three? Universally, I'm opening three and a half. I mean, there's times when you know I disagree with the number. This one I completely don't understand. Now.
I lowered Tennessee two and a half points with the Derrick Henry injury because he's that's a lot for I can't ever remember doing that for a running back in my life. But they looked really good. By the way, when you look at those yardage statistics, you know, versus rams when you score twice on you know what, a two yard drive and then another pick six that takes away two possessions where they had had what twenty yards, eight yards whatever, So that can be a little deceiving
when you look at that. When you look at this yardage on something like that, I think Tennessee is still really good. And Tannehill, even though he didn't have great numbers his qb R where am I at sixty two point six? Which is pretty good? This defense is coming around. I think it's a team that believes himself. Now back to New Orleans. You know Trevor Simeon, Well, let's just say he is who we thought, yes, you know, and uh eighteen point five, and let's not forget he had
a great game the week before. He's been around. He's not a very good quarterback and he's just not that good. The Saints aren't that good. Uh, they've been very up and down. But my numbers came to six, and I thought that was well, I'd probably lay the six. And that's the conundrumth Tennessee, Like, what of that? Yesterday? Was like, Oh, it was just the two you know errors by the rams that made that game what it was. Yes, but what is it about this football team that makes them
so successful weekend, week out, year in year out? Coming back? We got tweets at Beating the Book? Uh, Matt Warrior zero one three, This is my favorite segment of the week. You three are awesome. Side questions. Does the gold Sheet still exists out there? Thanks? I think it does. Yeah, I think it exists. The Better Life Tim Lawson. Uh. Seven years ago this week, we heard the original telling of Adventures in Bad Book Making from Chrissy on the
Beating the Book podcast. He tweeted it out for everybody. He's doing a great job tweeting those out. Yeah. Was that the one with the uh, the where I blew the pick six? Oh? That was the one I think he sent her said that last week. He said that two days ago, three days ago. Yeah, we'll get to the Breeders Cup momentary because I want you to explain this to everybody. This is from carm RANDASO. Not a good game for the Buffalo Bills, he said, hope someone
took the under. That's true, Matthew Mayberry. I was so sick of Scott Hanson and the Josh Allen stuff that when Chris Collinsworth brought it up on Sunday Night Football, I screamed at him, even though he only said it once. Luckily I had the Colts and Survivor this week, though. Congratulations to you. I'm glad you got through um route to do to do, and on and on with the tweet. Oh, Mickey Bako last one if you had to pick one on repeat for an hour. A Josh Allen to Josh
Allen or b Todd wishneb singing the Miami Dolphins song. Jeff, what do you think? Gil says l O, L. I don't know what I'd prefer to be quite honestly, this morning, definitely not the Josh Allen thing. Um, okay, so last thing about the Titans game. We just went through that last comment that I made, so you're right right. It was the whirling Dervish play which resulted in a two yard touchdown pass from Tannehill to Swim After that and then the pick six to Buyard and that kind of changed,
you know, that that changed that game forever. They added another touchdown before he knew it was three, and that game was just sort of holding served the rest of the way. What do you make of the Titans, even even without Derrick Henry that we can say that about that game and we'd be right to say, oh, it
was a weird game the way it played out. But they're just the Derrick Henry thing is is a unicorn thing with him, and now even without them, you wonder if there's just something about this football team is so different from everybody else. I got those calls about New England, texts about New England, people wanting to bet New England. I actually want to bet the Titans. Well there, you know, they've come close, you know, in the last couple of years.
I mean, that's you know, I think very well, sometimes it looks like a caveman kind of on the side, but he's coached a team. Well, they've gotten a lot out of that. He revived Tannehill's career, who was like a waste pretty much in Miami. Um, I think this team can win. I really do. I think they're very, very good and can win football games. The hardest part of their schedules now behind them. Before we have ruled out the right, just say next, two teams coming off
of bye week, Tampa at Washington. All right, I got another to stay here. Two teams off of bye Tampa. Bay is gonna be a ten point favorite at d C. Or I should say it ral John. I don't know what it is. I don't know if they call it rale John anymore. I like your number better. It's mostly nine and a half. My numbers came to eleven. I think I'm an open ten and take a pop. If anybody wants to come on in on Washington, come on in.
I'm gonna open ten on this game. It's nine and a half everywhere, but I think ten is a much better number here. The only the only spread I've been pretty way off on. I think it's the Tennessee one. I love Tennessee and come way off on that one to my friends, So don't feel too bad. What's next, Well, the Ravens. I'm way off on that one too. Oh right, Yeah, yeah, but but do you put you ended up posting the number. I guess seven and a half. I'm an open next one, Jeff,
another one Detroit winless off of by Pittsburgh. Site unseen Pittsburgh who hosts the Bears tonight, another team I didn't trust in Survivor. I'll secretly for for my own prevention of self loathing, I'll be rooting for the Bears tonight, so then I can absolutely say, well, I was gonna lose anyway I went because I was never gonna pick Baltimore and I was never gonna pick Miami. Once the toroad tailor news came down Pittsburgh, I threw it between
seven and ten. I'll say Pittsburgh minus eight and a half. Kind of a no man's land. Yeah, it's pretty much nine. I see an eight and a half. I see a nine and a half. Um, okay, diminishing returns. We can scratch out off your bingo card. My power ratings come to thirteen. Actually a lot of money showed on Pittsburgh's and had a lot of money, but I wouldn't trust Pittsburgh with more than double digits. People learned nothing from yesterday. That's Bett Pittsburgh, and the answer is no, by the way,
they have not learned. So I'm gonna open nine. I you know, like I said, my power ratings come higher, but the diminishing returns. This is a textbook case right here. I could see Pittsburgh winning seventeen ten very easily. Here. That was an easy line to guess too, because you had the barometer of tonight's game to sort of establish that it's seven and then just a little higher than little higher than Chicago would be Detroit. Um. That was also the thing about picking Buffalo, as you knew you
could play Pittsburgh or Baltimore this coming week. All right, what's next, Jeff? All right to the afternoon, we go on the west coast. So four or five eastern Vikings and Chargers. Okay, pardon me, Vikings and charges. Where do we start with the Minnesota Vikings. Uh, Minnesota is three and five. As we mentioned, they lose to the Ravens yesterday thirty to thirty one. In overtime. They were up twenty four to ten. They just this team, let's just go through it. Three and five. They lost on a
Dalvin Cook fumble in overtime. In Cincinnati. They missed a thirty seven yard field goal to lose to Arizona. They lost to Cleveland by seven, had the ball to Cleveland twenty six when the clock went to zero, they lost a Cooper rush of the Cowboys, and yesterday they cough up the fourteen points second half lead. Those are Those are five losses this season by a total of eighteen points. Five losses, all five of them by a total of eighteen points. By the way. A couple other three wins.
They beat Detroit by a miracle, if you're called that, and they beat Caroline and overtime after trying desperately to lose that football game. Kirk Cousins had to win it over time. So you look, if you're a fan of the Minnesota Vikings, you have got to be done with this outfit. Just like you. You almost knew they would figure out a way to lose that game yesterday. And it's not Kirk Cousins fault seventeen twenty eight for one eight seven yesterday, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked never.
It wasn't sacked this year. Sixteen touchdowns in two picks this year. Dalvin Cook seventeen for one, ten Jefferson through one pass for eleven yards, also had three catches for sixty nine in a touchdown. They did have eight penalties for one hundred seven yards, but again thirty six to thirteen disadvantage in first downs. And if you go back to that game against Cooper Russian Dallas on Sunday night, the offense just goes away for really long periods of time.
They gave up five hundred total yards. They were out gained five hundred three eighteen, but they were plus two in turnovers. When you're plus two in turnovers, you should win football games. They were out time of possession forty six oh four to forty. As we mentioned, they had a fourth and two at their own thirty three to seventeen. Give him credit for that. Seven twenty five left in the third quarter, they had a fake punt, they snapped it to the up back and they did convert it.
That's Minnesota in defeat. Then there's the Chargers. This was the fishiest line of the week to me, the Chargers in the Eagles line. Chargers end up winning it by a field goal twenty seven to twenty four. Justin Herbert thirty two of thirty eight thirty two of thirty eight three fifty six, two touchdowns, no picks, He wasn't sacked. Five carries, fourteen yards in a touchdown. Keenan Q. He is tremendous. Keenan Allen twelve catches for one oh four.
Now Here, here's the Brandon's Daley lead Chargers. Because we always try to isolate the fourth downs. So fourth and goal at the two yard line in a scoreless game, fourth and two, fourth and goal of the two in a scoreless game, five forty six left in the first quarter, one yard game. That was the rare ninety eight yards scoreless drive from the one to the one. Alright. Then it's fourth and two at the Philadelphia twenty seven with seven thirty left in the second quarter in a seven
seven game. They only get one yard on that they failed to convert. Then, and this is the key sequence at the end of the game, so we have a tie game. It's twenty four fourth and one at the Philly thirty nine with two forty eight left. Of course they go for that because there are no man's in and they converted. And then maybe the biggest single fourth down decision of the entire day in the NFL fourth and one at the Philly twenty eight under two minutes now,
they try to draw the Eagles defense off sides. They don't do that, so they call time out. They come back from the time out, they appropriately sneak and convert. Best coaching decision of the day, I would say, from Brandon's Dalley on that fourth and one under two minutes left, not settling for a forty five yard field goal from a kicker in Dustin Hopkins, who I can attest to as a Washington football team fan, is such a hit
or miss guy. It's not even funny. By the way, he missed an extra point earlier in the game as well. And you have a six ft five inch quarterback, you sneake them, and they did. They converted it, and they won on the much shorter Hopkins field goal. But I will say this about the Chargers defense. They allowed a hundred and seventy five plus rushing yards. Are you ready for this for the fifth time this season? So that's so anyway, bottom line, Minnesota Chargers. I said, Chargers minus three.
I'll get some more comments later. Uh, it's two and a half pretty much everywhere I'm I've made it four myself. You know, I think, yeah, I think Chargers certainly have their flaws, but Minnesota has a whole bunch of flaws. So I'm opening three. It's two and a half everywhere. Once again, go ahead and trample somebody else at the windows trying to get that plus three, because you know they can't resist the three or two and a half. When it's three everywhere, you know they can't resist. So
I'm opening three. And by the way, you mentioned the Chargers defense, I'll just jump ahead Jalen Hurts because really, to mean nothing but a mediocre quarterback. Eight point eight was his QBR against that Charger defense. And by the way, you know there was some QBR is just one more tool. But you know that I think I don't completely understand that.
I don't want to time like I do. But somebody else, somebody a couple of weeks ago when I said Kirk Cousins was in the bottom third quarterbacks, Uh called me out on it. And by that guy, whoever you are, forget you are, by the way, sorry about that. You're right, he's not in the bottom third. He's definitely probably in the upper half, especially this year. He's he's he's a top fifteen. He's a good quarterback. Yeah he's you know,
I'll give you that. And he's a good quarterback. The thing with the charges is he I want to fall in love with them so bad. And Brandon Staley's fourth down and thinks are great. I think I love Herbert, I love Justin herb but that defense is so unspecial. To put it mildly, you still think they gotta be a solid three against this team. Yeah, I think so too.
By the way, here's just a random thought too. Do you get and I heard somebody say something like this last night, but I was thinking it during the day. You is there some weird so the NFL? We we all acknowledge, you know, this year maybe more than every other year. And I don't want prisoner at the moment, but I think I'm right in saying this. It's wackier than any year before, I think, especially with all the fourth downs, the wider variants and scores uh inexplicable performances. Yesterday,
just the whole slate was filled with them. Do you think that the extra game going from sixteen to seventeen games? And I know it's only one extra football game to
work with me? Here We're only halfway through the first year of right, do you think that that has played some kind of weird mental game on teams where they're like the notion of having let down games becomes magnified where it's just sort of like, uh, this season is endless, Like from sixteen to seventeen, just that one extra week has had this strange psychological effect on everybody, just like with the the extra point being moved back, like it's just the chip shot field goal right now, it's so
difficult for everybody. I just that thought occurred to me yesterday. Well, that thought never occurred to me. I gotta tell you, I think there's a couple of things going on in the NFL. I think the extra point is part of it. I think, uh, you know, I think the fact that they go for it a lot more on fourth down con skew some scores without the plus or minus that way. I don't know about that seventeenth game, but I think
there's you know, there's there's some things like that. But meanwhile, Survivor, I'm up until yesterday. I mean, everybody was advancing every week. You know, Yeah, I tell the Cincinnati game, but I talked to Jeff during the break. I don't. I mean, I'm not one of these believers in full moon and all that other stuff. But go to the college. Poo look good in college? Uh, you know, Georgia looked good. Obama didn't know how State didn't or again, I guess
looked Okay, you know, you know Michigan State lost. I mean, Cincinnati looks terrible. A couple of weeks in a row now look terrible. So I mean, I don't know, is there is there a weirdness there too because of the you know, the voting to get in. I don't know. Guess the next numbers game, Vista these words, betting that one we get tweets at beating the book. Always appreciate
the uh the feedback. A lot of folks on the Breeders cup Tofur Baron tofor you were the guy ran into on the on the walkway, I believe between uh Aria and Cosmore, between Crystals and Cosmo Tofur, I believe that was you and your and your lovely wife. Listening to Gilly, Chris talked about the Breeders. Friday had two tickets live uh in P. Six and P five, each one ticket each single to the one and one with one to four. Although it came out okay for me, you guys are spot on that it should be all
when that took place. In my opinion, he shows me the tickets he made out. Yeah, good for you Tofor Roger Kane, the problem was that the vet did not examine the horse. He assumed he broke through the gate. I think Roger's right on and again, I think that goes back to the Barberow thing where we lost one of the great horses of the last you know, maybe forty years. That's how good Barbara was. Vegas Vice. Technically a vet can't scratch a horse. He recommend ends to
the stewards who do the actual scratching. Okay, that I didn't know, Thank you, Vegas. Fighte and Paul's aying only saving grace being a Vikings fan is in playing their opponent at halftime. Uh and Chimpanzee. I don't know this is if this is correct or not. Manning cast curse continues active players who have appeared on the Manning Caster now o and six the subsequent week Josh Allen falling victim this week. Wow. The Madden curse goes to the
Manning curse and this from Joe Peter via text. Joe Pete, who was here talking about profit exchange with this last week profit and uh obviously trading basses, wrote the Joe Peter Tour Guide on the Masters. He says, the greatest thing about betting on the Chargers is that the coach makes decisions exactly in line with your goals. Is a better I truly love coach daily, That's what I absolutely agree, he says. Of course, it really hit me yesterday during
that Eagles game. He removes a lot of that difference in coach better goals. The blowout in Baltimore was an example of that, too. Lose by thirty instead of thirteen due to the fail fourth downs. He and us as better don't care. I said that that week. I was like Brandon Daley gets that it doesn't matter if you lose by a hundred points. It doesn't care. But for betters, you'll have to keep that in mind. If you have a teaser, that's exactly right. What's next year? Chris stole
exactly what I was gonna say. Can't tease the Chargers because of that? Be careful. Carolina at Arizona is next. Oh, it's the Jeff Parlay Special. Whenever we get to Sam Donald. Sam Donald Carolina loses yesterday to New England, we talked about a little Donald was sixteen of thirty three for one seventy two. Ever been more quarterbacks with a few with less than two hundred yards passing three in this case,
I think is very accurate. Three. I remember I had this Kiden in high school, graded out of a hundred, and I asked him. I was like, hey, Mark, would you get on your test because I got an eleven uh sixty eleven thirty three for one seventy two touchdowns picked three times, one sack career versus New England, Sam Donald owen four straight up one touchdown against the leven turnovers. So Bill Belichick destroys Sam Donald one touchdown against the
leven turnovers. He hasn't had a touchdown pass in three games Sam Donald last three games Panthers had played not a single touchdown pass. McCaffrey was back in the lineup fourteen for fifty two on the ground, four for fifty four catching, but the Panthers total thirteen first downs two d forty total yards. There were three of eleven on third downs they had three turnovers, and they had ten
penalties for eighty three yards. The only good news is Stephon Gilmore's had a pick in both of his games as the Panther where they play in Arizona, OH Arizona. Arizona goes into San Francisco without Kyler Murray, without DeAndre Hopkins, without a j Green, and they crushed the Niners. Colt McCoy twenty two of twenty six for two forty nine,
one touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice. James Conner any one carries for ninety six yards to touchdowns, five catches, seventy seven yards in a touchdown, one hundred and sixty three rushing yards for the Cardinals against the Niners. Kristen Kirk one of one throwing for thirty three six catches for ninety one They were plus three in turnovers against the Niners. Overcame nine penalties for eighty four yards, had a thirty six forty seven thirteen time of possession advantage.
It was fourteen and nothing by the end of the first quarter. George Kinnel fumbled, Brandon Aiyuke fumbled. Both of those lead to scoring tribes in the first half. For Arizona. I'll say Arizona by double digits. Here, I'll say Arizona. Mine is ten and a half. I like your number better, Mark Autoff. Um, it's mostly ten. Um, Yeah, I see mostly ten. I'm gonna open ten and a half. You know, I made this game fourteen and I'm the Kyler Murray.
Murray's playing or not. The Panthers have really hit the skids. I mean early in the season they were three and oh I thought, you know that rule was like the next Vince Lombardi. Uh. They've hit the skids since then, one to three or five six. They've lost six out of seven and Donald looks terrible. The defense looks terrible. Um. Jeff Barlay called y you know they're They're one win was against the Falcons, who I think are terrible. You know, so I think this, and I'll tell you truth. I've
been slow to come around on the Cardinals. They're really really good. Might they after yesterday? Might they be the best team in the NFL. Well, they're the top of my power ratings. You know, my grating says, I haven't gone through my power ratings as closely as I need to. Uh. There they have the highest grade, I can tell you that. And somebody pointed us out on Twitter. I thought, I can't think of who it was. I'd like to acknowledge him. Um,
but James Conner. Maybe the Steeler offensive line was just horrible and that's why he had such a bad year, because he looks pretty good with the Cardinals. But that team has depth. And you know, I'm not a big fan of Kingsbury, but you know, sometimes you have great assistance and whatever. And I think this team, this team can win. This team can definitely win at all. Absolutely
eight and one. The Arizona Cardinals without Kyler Murray, without DeAndre Hopkins, Yeah, without J. J. Watt of course, next Sir, James Connor is also the best scoring running back in the history of the league. And all of a sudden now from going from Pittsburgh the Arizona double digit touchdowns already for no worries there, Chris Uh Seattle, the Green Bay Seattle coming off of bye, We're getting Russell Wilson back next week, we might right, well, he's eligible, he's
eligible to come back for Week ten. I'm not sure. Let's get a word on that, okay, green Bay. Green Bay loses to Kansas City thirteen to seven. Back door was open, Jordan's Love took it. That's the best thing I'm gonna say about Jordan Love. Now, Packers seven game winning streak is snapped. All three seasons under Matt Lafloor. They're seven and two after nine games the Packers all three seasons. Uh. The Packers early in this game had two missed field goals in a muffed punt leading to
short fields for Casey. I mean that that's all the plink, oh you need. That's all the Chiefs needed to win this game. And again the Chiefs only won this thirteen to seven against Jordan's Love. The Packers had no points, zero points on their first eight drives. Love ended up nineteen of thirty four for one nine, one touchdown, one picky sack once. The Packers were two of twelve on third downs. They out gained Kansas City and defeat three oh one to two thirty seven. They were minus two
in turnovers. Let me just say this about Jordan Love. This is going back. You know we we always we do the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing about past. So as a Washington football team fan growing up, remember the old holding the clipboard thing. And if you held the clipboard for years, when you came to play after all those years,
oftentimes you were really good. So Mark Rippon, Stan Humphreys, Trent Green, all these guys in Washington who held the clipboard for years under their predecessor, one won of the Super Bowl m v P. Was the greatest player for one year you could ever imagined, and ripping Humphreys led the Chargers to an a f c chaan up in ship. Trent Green, who knows if he doesn't get hurt, maybe he leads the Rams to the Promised Land. Jordan's love
learned anything all these years? Well it's two years, two years. He still did you learn anything? The thing does anything they threw out at him that he had never seen before, he had no answer for none. I'll say, I mean, I don't know if it's Russell Wilson. If it's not Russell Wilson and it is Aaron Rodgers, I would say Green Bay by six. Yeah, it's mostly like five. I'm I just want to see here. It sounds like he might be bad. It might be that would reduce it
a little. I gotta tell you that's this is a weird weird number. I'm looking now, it's it's four and a half. It was five, It's not a four and a half. Does that mean Russell Wilson's plan. I don't know what to do with this, but let's let's assume Rodgers is back with the team Saturday. That means he'll miss all week's practice. Not a veteran, you know, I'm not sure that's gonna affect a whole lot as far
as his play on Sunday. You know I would assume not. Um, it's a hard game to figure out about hard game to figure I got like three different numbers working for me, you know. Um. You know, I think I'm gonna be real careful with this game. But I think I'm gonna open five. Just that gives me leeway. Um, even though are my friend Ralf Gralf Michael's posted that five is a much more predominant number than it used to be.
But uh, if I get laid the five and go right to six, if they take the five and go right the four, you know, I just I want to be careful with this game because, like I said, I think there's a ton of variables that none of which that I'm sure of By the way, shout out to Ralph also who tweeted out that, uh that grid last week or two weeks ago about where numbers fall now, where results fall, winning margins fall in NFL games now percentage wise for for teaser players, that was very interesting
to look at. It does his homework, no doubt about. It's a hard worker. And here's what you said, here's what you take away from yesterday. Once again, as if we needed reminder, say what you will about Aaron Rodgers off the field, and lord knows there's a lot to say. Terry Bradshaw certainly didn't bite his tongue about it yesterday, but man on the football field, there's nothing like Aaron Rodgers versus whomever people eave. The Packers traded up for.
Jordan loved too that See, that was my beef the whole time. If he fell to them. Yeah, okay, I can understand they traded up to get this guy. First of all, you know, he had like twenty interceptions or something his last year. We'll come back more guessing lines, numbers, Game Beast and the Sports Betting Network correction correction Chrissie from Michael Monasano. He says Jordan loved it not throw twenty picks his last year at Utah State twenty touchdowns
in seventeen intersection fine ratio. Indeed, year before he was thirty two and six should be no um. We also had tweets at beating the book man Bear Pueek talking about how the Packers missed the two field goals and then they muffed the punt. Will NFL coh ever figure out that it's plus TV to never have a punt returner back. I don't hate that. I don't hate that, but I've always said I'll always tell my you know, when I'm rooting, catch the ball, and that's it. Just
catch the ball. Well, we know what I hate to see it rolled on into the one on it yard punt that went forty yards. Catch the ball there and then stop. There's that, and then there's the of course, no one can help themselves but commit a block. Block in the back again, right, catch the ball and just stop. And as you said, on the brake, and it's so apparent on a punch they can see the block in
the back every time. I don't know is there. There's there's no punt returner anymore, there's no there's no Devin Hester. There's no Mike Nelms, if I may thank you, there's Yeah, there's nobody who has that knack anymore. The Billy White Shoes, Johnson to the world and punt returning is a knack more. Johnny Rodgers for College, Johnny Rogers Nebraska. Those guys don't
exist anymore. Um, all right, what's next job? We are into the late afternoon now, Gil, and we are gonna go h to Denver with the Eagles and the Broncos. How many afternoon games are there? Total? Next four? So actually, Seat and Green Bay is a late a four as well, but so is Philly and Denver. Philly is at Denver. Alright, Philly, as we mentioned, lose to the Chargers. Jalen Hurts eleven for seventeen, eleven of seventeen for one sixty two yards,
one touchdown. Noe Pixie was stack once ten carries for sixty two yards. DeVonta Smith was his biggest target, five for one, sixteen and touchdown. They were eight of twelve on third downs, but they allowed two touchdowns and two field goals on the four Chargers possessions in the second half. And that's really was the story of the game. Uh, the Eagles are oh and four straight up at home this season. They're own three straight up after a win. I have a question for you about the Eagles coming up,
but they're at Denver. We talked about how Denver was up on Dallas thirty to nothing. Dallas tried all those fourth downs, they couldn't get them done. And then when when the Broncos had to punt early in the second half, it looked like Dallas had blocked the punt, but then they touched it and it was like a Leon Lett kind of play where the Broncos maintained possession on the recovery. So Teddy Bridgewater was nineteen forty nine, one touchdown, no picks,
sacked four times. That is Teddy's You love Teddy Bridgewater always. That is his sixth the game this season without an interception. More games are not lost than one. That's not what he could have been because of that devastating injury, but he's he's I mean, I I saw New Orleans was really trying to get him back. That would have been a great move for New Orleans. Javon Williams, by the way, seventeen carries for a hundred eleven Melvin Gordon one for
eight in a touchdown. They out rushed Dallas Denver did on eight Tim Patrick for catches for eighty five yards of a touchdown. Denver ends up winning thirty to sixteen and again after the garbage time touchdowns for the Cowboys, where Mike McCarthy insisted on having Dak Prescott in the game for no particular reason. Um, I'll say Denver minus three and a half, and then I'll ask you my Philly question. Uh. You know, once again, I like your
number better. It's two and a half and two and a half with some juice, I'm an open three and uh as I like to point out these guys think number one the game is definitely coming three and number two they'll never see another two and a half again the existence of bookmaking. So they'll come in and lay
me the two and a half have at it. Uh. I'm not crazy about either one of these teams, you know, really, But I just think, you know, Denver by the way, I only give Denver two point home field advantage, which right now is eyes that give anybody. Uh but I my numbers came to four in this game. I just think Philly is not that good. But the wise guys love this team. Question why? I don't know? They yesterday against the Chargers. The why these guys pounded the Eagles
whereas the public pounded the Chargers. They kicked off and I needed the Eagles. The public just totally overpowered him on this game. And I can see why. I mean, I didn't have a strong opinion on the game, but I thought the Chargers should be a three point favorite on the road. Um, but they love this Eagle team and don't don't. I don't know what they're gonna do with What is it? Jeff? I'll bring in Jeff to speculate. What is it about the Eagles that they love so much?
I don't undert I've thought that team has been bad the whole year, with a bad coaching staff and a bad quarterback. So I don't get it either. And this is this is multiple weeks running. We saw the the the Raider game open three closed pick yesterday open one and a half closed pick. I I don't see it. I don't see it at all. What's the Mrs Lincoln line at the Ford Theater? But besides that, what do you think about the play right? Yeah, I mean bad quarterback,
bad coach. You know, I really fought Sirianni. Not that I knew that much about him, I didn't, but I thought he might fit Jalen Hurts really well. And I guess if you look at qbrs, Jalen Hurts doesn't look that bad. But I mean you watch football games, and you know, I'm not sure he's an NFL quarterback, you know, starting NFL top notch quarterback. I mean, he's dangerous in his own way, but but if you're watching enough of him, you're like, well, an NFL quarterback makes that play right there?
He doesn't. Let's do uh the Sunday night game here, Jeff, if we could good one locally just down the road from US Chiefs at Raiders. No, I will say this, the Chiefs again in victory, just like in victory against the Giants. Complete garbage. Patrick Mahomes yesterday, twenty of thirty seven for one sixties six. Again this has to be the record for the most winning quarterbacks with less than two yards passing twenty of thirty seven for one sixty six,
one touchdown. Note picks sack once. Remember earlier when I was talking about Trevor Lawrence how Ha said he had the second lowest arts per attempted to win by a starter this year. Second lowest Patrick Mahomes yesterday in victory the lowest yards per attempt in a win by a starter all year four point four nine yards per attempt. It was his first game without an interception since week one. Patrick threw an interception in September. This first game without
a pick since week one. But they find themselves at five and four, a half, a game behind the Raiders and the charts. She was in the a F C. West Kelsey five catches for sixty eight to touchdown. Yesterday, the Chiefs had fourth and one at their own forty five and a scoreless game, twelve thirty seven left in
the first court quarter. They went forth. They converted That led to a seven nothing lead, but fourth and one at their own thirty nine to start at the second quarter up seven and nothing, two yard loss led that led to a Green Bay drive which resulted in one of Mason Crosby's missed field goals. It was a block field goal. Two minutes left, up thirteen to seven. Explained this to me. Two minutes left in the game. Chi Are up thirteen to seven. Green Bay has no time
outs left, So what do you do there? On third down? You run, don't you? On third and ten you milk the clock and then green Bay you pin Jordan's love deep and no, no, they passed. So I'm thinking to myself, I'm like, if you throw an incomplete pass, you are bailing out the Packers entirely. Mahomes, the Tyreek, maybe his biggest play of the day for a first down, bailed him ount. That was the one play that he looked like Patrick Mahomes and he reacted like it was like
he found himself. He's like, oh my god, that's me. I forgot about me or something. Uh. They out they out gained that. They were out gained by Green Bay three oh one to two thirty seven. They were plus terms and then the Raiders the Raiders. We haven't gotten to that game yet. Raiders lost the Giants Derek six two nine six, one touchdown, two picks with sack, once first game for Eric Carr with multiple picks this season. Raiders last three possessions missed twenty five yard field goal
attempt and two turnovers. That's all you need right there. Jacob's thirteen for seventy six on the ground of wall or seven catches for ninety two. They outgained the Giants four oh three to two forty five and lost. They were minus two in turnovers and again the pick six theme. Xavier McKinney. One of his two picks was a pick six forty one yards of Derek Carr left in the third quarter that put the Giants ahead seventeen to thirteen.
Biggest play of the game. I will say the Raiders will be favored, and I will say the Raiders will be favored by two and a half. I don't quite like your number better. I had the Raiders one. It's Kansas City two and a half and two and a half with juice. Wow. Yeah, I'm gonna open to an Africans. I'll probably leave it just about to say I have gone this entire show spectacularly well with guesses. Are you kidding me? I'm not kidding you, and I'll tell you
right now. You've kind of alluded to it. There's something wrong in this Kansas City team as a coaching, the play calling. While that one worked in their favor, I can understand that may be a question. We'll call uh you know Andy Reid, Hall of Famer Eric b Enemy, you know, UH looks like one of the top offensive coordinators uh in the league that you know, I don't know. And the defense doesn't look terrible. Uh. There is something wrong with this team and they are living on past
reputation right now. And uh, I am off this bandwagon. I didn't like it yesterday. I really thought, Um, you know, I thought it was gonna be an overreaction to the to the Rogers, you know, suspension, whatever you wanna call it. Uh. And we're lucky to cover them numbers, certainly, but you know, there's something wrong with Kansas City. They're not that good. I was just about to say how the sneaky part of this show today was how accurate I was all
the guests to spend them. That happens. We'll come back, We'll do the Monday night game, our last game, and then we'll review everything we like, teaser legs, Survivor plays, although I'm not involved anymore, coming back, guessing lines, numbers, Game Vista, the sports metting that work skill Alexander Christie Andrews my Mishka from the South Point Hotel Casino Sports Book always so much fun to do this show with you two hours flies by Flies podcast days we take
three hours story time and you would just go, We could just go for an hour. They were lucky if I was wearing my pants in our apartment in San Francisco. Those were the days. Um, but look what it Look what it led to. We get to do this still today. And I'll tell you the podcast numbers. We air this show, people get to listen to it, and then it's put on podcast, and the podcast numbers are out of this world, even with the first And I have a lot of fun doing it. It's the best. You're like, this is
the last thing I ever do for free. I've held that. We've held to that all right. The Monday Night gave Jeffrey Rams at Forts Rams and Niners. By the way, this is from Spike on Twitter. Spike McGruder, Dante Hall another unreal forgotten in it. Yeah. Oh he was good. Yeah, they don't exist any more of those guys. Rams at Niners. Okay. The Rams lose that game to the Titans last night.
Matthew Stafford doing his best Carson Wentz invitation ends up thirty one one touchdown to Pick sacked five times I said the Bills were soft yesterday. The Rams look soft against Tennessee. Soft protecting Stafford up in the middle. Would seven cup By the way, isn't Stafford like six ft? But we were talking about this last night, Michael Montessano and I were mentioning this, Uh, Matthew Staffords like six
ft five inches tall or something like that. He gets more balls batted down at the line of scrimmage that any six five dude I've ever seen. Noticed that about him just seems like it. Um. I don't know. Maybe it's just US twelve penalties for a hundred fifteen yards for the Rams. That was the other thing the Rams and the Bills had in common yesterday. Just penalties every which way. Uh. San Francisco losing to the Kyler less
DeAndre list aj greenless Cardinals. Jimmy Garoppolo twenty eight of forty three, twenty six, two touchdowns, one pick, sack five times. Kittle six for one on one in a touchdown, ayouk show it up six for eighty nine in a touchdown, but both of them fumbled Kittle and Ayouke and both led to Cardinals. Cardinals points in the first half, the Niners were minus three in turnovers. They gave up four dred thirty seven total yards. They are one in twelve
straight up in their last thirteen games at home. I finally gave him a zero for home field. There is oh they deserve a zero. Have you ever been to Levi Stadium before? It is a beautifully antiseptic stadium. There's nothing to it. By the way, they had a fourth and thirteen at the Arizona thirty nine down thirty one to fourteen with thirteen o eight left, and they punted. That's the ant the anti you know trend in the NFL of going forward on fourth downs. Let me repeat that.
The Niners had the ball fourth and thirteen at the Arizona thirty nine down seventeen points with thirteen o eight left, and they punted. I don't care if it's fourth and twenty, go for throw the Colts makeup. Just throw the ball up, have a dB run into somebody you punted. Kyle Shanahan man worst record than Mike Singletary had to saying Rams. I put it no man's land. I said, no man's land. I said Rams minus five and a half. I don't quite like your number better, but close my numbers came
the four and a half. It's four pretty much universal. You know, I think I'll probably open forward just to kind of test the water. If I see a trending high, I'm gonna go up. I said, I've given them now a zero for home field advantage. They might be negative at home field and they might be better on the road. The Niners and Washington franchises followed the exact same trajectory.
They both won multiple Super Bowls in baseball converted stadiums r and Candlestick stadiums that were not old for football. They were very awkward, both of the alignments. And then they both moved out of the city to suburban shangri laws right rawl John right, excuse me, not really sang in that case. But the stadiums were at the times
were like the best. You know. Washington was the most stupid because they got one of these ridiculous river front three river stadiums right when those stadiums were going out. So it's it's even worse. But they both moved out of the city and they both ended up with zero home field advantage almost from day one. There is zero right now, Like I said, they may be negative and this year. I don't know why I used to have
I used to have Washington is at one point. They're one and a half now and why did I have that half? I have no idea. I gotta take a look at that. That must be an error. You're like, maybe I hit on my computer. No way, Yeah, they shouldn't be one and half. But yeah, San Francisco's a zero. By the way, should we start calling Santa Clara. It's not even the same county. Um. But anyway, like I said, my numbers come the four and a half. You know, I'm gonna you know that ramp performance was was awful
yesterday and where's my qbrs? Stafford was seventeen point six? Terrible, terrible. The guys still in the hunt for the m v P. He's had a great year. He had a terrible game this year, but he was pressured up the middle. Yeah, I mean he really was pressured horribly. Issue and that stuff you're saying about Kyle Shanahan. You know, we gotta
look at that. You know, that's uh. I don't know, I'm starting to really sour on this guy and think about the players, like I meant this, they they you know, they got trace Sermon, but they seem to like Elijah. I was getting Elijah more and Mitchell mixed up. They seem to like Elijah Mitchell better than they like Sermon. Then, like they have, you know, the whole Garoppolo lance thing. They seem to like Garoppolo better. They just some very
strange moves with their with their personnel too. It's like, well, why did you drop these guys so um worse than Mike Singletary. That says right there. I couldn't believe it. I would have trouble believing that too. All right, So what did we like the best? Just off the top of my head. Titans based on the number the spread Titans and Raiders for me, Oh my god, I got five, though I'm sure there's more. I'm just I got five. I like that's way too many. Four of them are favorites.
I like the Ravens, the Titans, the Chargers charges just a little though, you know, I like the Ravens to the Broncos and the Raiders the Broncos too. Yeah. Oh no, we like the same things. And it's way too many. That's that's a lot. But I mean, that's that's kind of what I like, at first glance, that's my great show.
I really enjoyed it. One thing really hurt Oh no, Grandpa, I know, Marley, I hear you laughing back there, even about uncle not my uncle, a little better than it hurts you for like an hour and a half you've been doing. I think we're two hours. But okay. And and the poor it was it, man, I believe on Twitter the poor guy was just trying to give you a compliment too, and he went, no, she has a great personality. I noticed that people call me sir now
way more than they used to. I'm like, stop calling me sir. In my head, all right, Jeff, what did you like the best of all these? By the way, Jeff Parlay, everybody, there's only one. I like, there's a bunch of maybes. Like Baltimore is in the maybe pile, the U the Chargers are in the maybe pile. The
Broncos are in the maybe pile. But the the Kansas City Chiefs being favored on the road, that's the only one that made no sense against the team that remember last year when Kansas City was still good, the Raiders one in Arrowhead and the game here the Raiders matched them every single time in Kansas City one because they had the ball last. Tell me, the Raiders aren't gonna win in this game outright and win this game comfortably? They only spread that. That That couldn't only number that makes
no made no sense to me. You saw it by my guests. I couldn't believe it. I had the Raiders, I have the Titans. Made no sense to me. That didn't either. You. Uh so teaser Legs then Baltimore. I get it. It's not a long teaser, like because they're a rout team, but you could essentially tease Baltimore down through the seven and three? Um, could Browns teaser Raiders? Those are long teasers? Yes, you could tease New Orleans too, right is that two and a half? No, where's New
Orleans and tennis? Yeah, well it's not one? Okay? What were the two? Browns? And Browns and Raiders? Browns and Raiders or I guess you could the Eagles too, right? Yeah? Well, yeah, I guess you could. Yeah, Brown's Raiders, Eagles and and yeah, oh so the Raiders. Yea Eagles. That wouldn't be a bad teaser. Raiders and Ravens leaps off the page for me. Give me that and maybe the Browns too, all right, and then survivor for those of you lucky enough to still be in it. I would not be one of them.
Baltimore Pittsburgh, We're gonna be one of my choices. Those were gonna be my choices next week, Baltimore Pittsburgh. But I guess if you hadn't played Indianapolis yet, they'd be available. If you hadn't played Buffalo yet, they'd be available. So would Dallas, so would Tampa Bay. Many a choice, many a choice. Sadly, I will not be involved, thanks a
lot Buffalo Bills. Two years in a row. I've gone deep and lost with the biggest favorite on the boards seventeen points last year, and then what was it yesterday? Fifteen and a half, right, Chris sixteen? I even saw sixteen and a half. I could have I could have gone in sixteen and half my own. Michael Lombardi is next. Oh he's got lots to day. I'm sure. Michael Lombardi, who I believe was three and oh three and o was dogs yesterday for him. Lombardi line next with the
great Michael Lombardi and enjoy. Thank you, Crizzy as always appreciative. Thank you, Jeff, from all of us at BACENT, the S Fourts Betting Network that time, the first PA