Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview

on that he does with a mall Shaw. Do you think we can get a mall on the show a little later this year as well? See what he says. Okay, um, thank you for being here as always. I know you had your booster shots. So you're not feeling very well A little bit. That's sick, but pain pain from the shot in the arm and that side and then chills I've been taking to my book, prof and so but uh, you know, I get macdair and I had the first two shots for mcdair and I and they said Madern

is the strongest and longest last team. Yeah, of the vaccine and how you call it as your booster MADERNA to Maderna to the guy that gave me the shot, actually said if people had the Johnson and Johnson one shot, he was advising them to get the Modern and Booster. Oh wow, so J J. Jacob I messed it up. Yeah, yeah, Todd wishing it from his mom's cork addict, his mom's cork addict, star of the Showtime docuseries Action for a few years back. How you doing, Totty? You good? I'm

doing great. You know. I went to a DraftKings dinner last night and met some people that were fans of yours, so you know, obviously they had some poor judgment, but um, they do like you, and uh, thank you, thank you. They really like you, they said, Mikey, is you know mediocre? Wow? Well, how are you going to compare someone with no media training to somebody that's been thirty five years? You're fantastic years. You were my favorite radio per sonality from the state

of Iowa. I'm being serious because I don't know Eric, So I mean, we can't joke around like we normally do till we get the cadence of the show. First time on the podcast. I should mention that to Eric that the best line I've ever shot. Aaron shot about five six minutes into the podcast. By the way, Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus Data Science his research to day aside his doctor Eric Eager. By the way, Uh, kind enough to join us on the show. Eric, great

to have you. I appreciate it. I just want to know Aaron shots like six minutes into this podcast. He's been on the numbers game, he's been on my other stuff, but when he was on the policy goes, I'm gonna it's gonna take me a second to get used to the rhythm of this ship. She said. Kate, Oh, I thought he said. He did say the word Eric. Thanks for doing it, man. I appreciate it. As somebody who knows Aaron personally, I am not surprised at all that

that is a classic line for him. He and I were on panels together where you know he was very much the the disheveled scientist and uh and sort of yeah he let's just say he dictated cadence. Yeah, I I will tell you this, and Aaron is I'm on aeron side on this. So we used to go to M I T. Sloan Sports and Analytics Conference for years. I don't know if you ever went eric Um, but we Aaron used to be on panels, like when they

started football pro football panels, Aaron was up there. Now they like don't even ask him to be on sometimes, Like I don't know if it was this year of the last year. I haven't been the last two years because it's because he said the Patriots defense last year was one of the defenses in this year the National Football it was remember that? Uh he I tell you.

There's one thing that Aaron said last year that I remember really well, and it's aged very well, which is I had the audacity to say the Chiefs they sort of seemed to play up and down to their competition this year, and Aaron goes, maybe, he goes, whoa whoa bo he goes, maybe they're just not as good as we think they are. That has aged pretty well, I will say that. So that's the that's the one shots from Mark he made last year that that I remember

quite well. Todd Harry Reasoners from Iowa. You'd like to be better than Harry Reasoner. It's a clothe it's very tight, it's very it's very I wouldn't want to live on the difference. Wasn't It wasn't Harry because he was he was on a weekly Sunday at sixty minute show, whereas you're in the daily. So I had to give you the nine. Wasn't Harry reason or the guy that Barbara Walters complaint was so sexist towards her when she was coming at a lot of complaints later on after he retired.

In that about he wouldn't have worked in this, Oh not at all. Not at Morley would have been okay, not Harry Morley. I didn't think we'd go down the sixty minutes row. By the way, you know it's gonna be on the megapod two weeks from now, Brent Musburger making his return. I got I got it. This is exciting, this is exciting. We have looked back then, Amy Coney, Barrett's tenure brand pre game in the in the NFL today, Remember that time you were so entertaining Brent, And remember

that time. Tell me about that time, by the way, before you answer, you're such a great guy. You're amazing. Mikey and Brent went on their own little fucking tangent. Excuse pardon me. We're happy to have back. I'm sure he's thrilled he's gonna be in here. I think with us. That's the world. I think so, I think so um And he went politics right for the beginning, which was funny. All right, Uh, let us begin before we get into best bets and teasers and Survivor and all that stuff. Mikey,

you have a great story here, so circum millions. How many people have Circus Survivor? How many people didn't submit Survivor? Only two, only the best week of the year, and only the Braven's really got people again, fewer than a hundred people losing Survivor. But there was a dude in millions. Can you tell this story? I can tell it. I mean the guys was one of the five way split eighteen and two the first quarter. He was in second place at twenty five and five, and he didn't submit

his picks this week. Oh my god, how do you not? How how does that happen? He said? He forgot. He texted Jeff Benson and said, you know anything you can do sometime before four in that hour? I just three o'clock is the deadline? Yea? And they answer is no, there's the answer in the system. No, you can't even go in and put it's impossible. But you know that we got flooded with emails and calls after four when you know we post the website, all the people saying,

what's the mistake? What's his picks? They wanted to know this. It's not listed his picks. We need to know his picks. Sure you didn't turn any in people flabber guests. God, I wonder if a guy like that now secretly hopes he just sucks the rest of the way. You know, people have their feeling about the proxies and that, but Derek has said all along, even if you're a local, pay the three hundred dollars, you're gonna get the text from the proxy right at ten am or whatever time

they submit and say, hey, what are your picks? If you do forget, you get a lot of reminders from the That's crazy. I mean, that's also crazy like you to be doing so well that other people are in we gate already rooting against you or just curious what you pick, like you see if they're on the right side or not. Al Right, before we get started, do you want to take some congratulations for actually a winning week? Can we talk about survivor I want to. And I

asked this question to you guys. He couldn't. He couldn't wait to us, he couldn't wait to unleash that line. He's waiting all week. It's okay, it's okay. But I thought that there was something very interesting this week, and over five hundred people took the Cardinals. I was shocked by I was shocked by that too, because they are

a Christmas consideration. And even if you argue maybe the Titans now look like to play over the forty niners on that Thursday before, don't just still need like two viable teams on the Thanksgiving and Christmas from in quarterback injury. Whatever I think you do, I think you do. But yeah, six hundred people did not care about that. Tells me it's you know, we'll cross that bridge when we come

to it. Thinking for a lot of people, there are still many more people still live in Circus Survivor than started Circus Survivor last year. Wow, all right, Todd, Okay, before we get to the pics, go ahead. What was our records last week? Deserves a round of applause, an absolute round of A plus. The Gilly had the Atriots minus seven. I believe. They won by five points. Believe, so text almost thought there for him, although they did

get there. My I had a ten point teaser with the Texans plus twenty eight, and I got there, but the plus seven didn't. Bengals plus six was a fantastic pick. So he goes two and one to move to a robust seven and four Arizona up to twenty eight. What kind of sick oh are you? I didn't know ten point teaser idea of these three team tender teasers, so I moved. I took a all crap team teaser and it got there. Was plus twenty eight plus twenty six on the Lions and plus fourteen and a half on Seattle,

and it was pretty easy. The only one that was even in doubt at all was Arizona, and it wasn't even really in doubt. Why do you think draft Kings keeps inviting him the stuff? Exactly? By the way, keep calling me the way those ten points are worth? Like, what are you doing? I disagree. I disagree because at the end of the game, the teams that are up big don't want to blow out. Look, I don't mind

if people call that content blowing the ship out. Of the Jets, right, But that was that's Belichick against the Jets, and he hates the Jets. The the that's a It's a different thing when you get these these teams, like you know, Arizona doesn't want to show anything when they're out huge, they're just gonna, you know, coasting. Anyways. You can call me dumb all everybody can just laugh. I'm just I'm just want to know the thought process. But

that's that's a reasonable thought. I know a lot of people think it's stupid, but when you're stupid, I'm being defensive, both of you. Okay, it's not about Eric. I'm being defensive. Eric. You called me an asshole, and I don't appreciate it. Asshole. I'm trying to I'm trying to change the cad into the show. That's right, He's already been warned and advanced. Sometimes these ten point teasers, I'm I'm literally like eleven and two and ten point teasers. Mike, you could tell

you like that. Two years ago, I was giving them out and I've been doing them again this year and they're fantastic. So I'll keep laughing all the way to the bank. But you you have famously said, it's all math in the end, right, And here's Eric, who is nothing, you know who, who, if anything, loves math himself, right and can give you the value of those points. So you should appreciate that response. I think, oh, I think mathematically he's probably correct. But I think there's also a

psychological component. I've seen too many NFL games where a team is a huge dog and they barely get Whenever the teams cover those huge lines, they barely do it. They don't usually wipe the team out in my experience, over a long period of time, Whenever there's some wacko college looking spread in the NFL, the teams, if they do cover it, they barely cover it. And I think it's because the better team, the better team late in the game, doesn't care to win by more. I'm glad

you want man whatever. Anyways, like Gilly did win the teaser, we all want the teaser. Gilly moves to five, one and one on the teaser. Mike, he's five and two on the teaser and I am in first place with six and one on the man to beat on the teasers on the spreads, Well, actually you're an but okay, good try Mikey. Mikey was one in two last week with his Bears plus twelve and a half almost got their very close game there, Mikey, you were right in

it all the way. I believe they lost five hundred three Bengals Ravens under not a chance and he did win with the Browns two. I just want I want to say one thing, because I never have ever challenged Michael. I think that Bears pick was your most peculiar pick ever. Yeah, it was bad. I should have been on no hyperpolet myself from and even Carols laughed at it on Friday. And I can't believe Mike Palm I was such a

bad match. I misread the game and I went but Tampa they didn't even want to play in the second half. They shut it totally down. Absolutely. I went one in two to move to ten and eleven hit my Arizona under lost the Miami under and the Kansas City Tennessee game. I think that will go down as the strangest game in NFL history that the Kansas City Chiefs only scored

three points against the Tennessee Titans defense. Please put that in the mathematical data is and tell me what percentage of time that will happen for the rest of history. Dr eric I will say, as somebody who and I'm a Kansas City fan, like I, I had Tennessee and I had Under in that game, and I had under because I thought that I thought they would be it would slow down. But for different reasons, I thought the Chiefs would try to slow the game down a little

bit to protect their defense. And like the I think the craziest stat of the season so far that literally no one knows is that the Chiefs for the second straight game allowed zero second half points. And obviously it was it was a pretty like, you know, weird way to do it last week, but um you know that the scoring three. Talk about them scoring three. Actually here's some inside football and actually I have, you know, as a part of my job, I do like having interactions

with these teams. We climbed out to All thirty two and one of one of the members of the team that I'm really close with was like, Hey, can you check out our r P O game? And I know if anybody knows, like RPOs are basically like run plays where you can pull the ball out of the stomach of the running back and throw the ball to a wide receiver, and on those plays linemen aren't allowed to block up field because if you do pull the ball out you throw the ball, you'll get an illegal man

down field penalty. And so the Chiefs have have run the second highest rate of RPOs in the NFL, second to Arizona, and they're bad at them, and most of the NFL is really good at them. And so the thing is when the Chief's kind of half asked the run game and the past game, trying to be deceptive, they're bad at both. And interestingly, it's just because these linebackers are like when they see Mahomes put the ball in the stomach of the running back, the linebackers are saying, like,

come and get us. You know, Darryl Williams is not about to get you know, We're not gonna get killed by Darryl Williams. Will get killed by Mahomes instead. And it's hurt the Chiefs offense. And if you've watched them that the Washington game, they scored thirty one points, but they were something like seven of seven or eight of eight on third downs in the second half of that game. The fact that they're getting to that many third downs is problematic for their offense. And so, you know, the

Tennessee game was pretty simple. It was Tennessee took a long time to score. The Chiefs went three and out or five and out or whatever it was. Tennessee took a long time and scored. Chiefs went five and out, and then they Tennessee went and scored. The Chiefs turned the ball over. Like it's not like they had a lot of offensive plays in the first half and we're bad on all them. They like literally had like thirteen plays in the first half, and you know that, and

that's how the Chiefs. They also got desperate. You can feel that desperation in my homes. When he starts to get down big, it feels like, you know, they're just forcing it, you know what I mean, They're not taking what's there. He looks like bad Aaron Rodgers. When Aaron Rodgers was really struggling, you know, he's not. He hits his back foot and the first thing he wants to

do is scramble and make a big play. When you know that offense should be gaining seven eight yards at a time, and instead he's trying to he's trying to score fourteen points on every play, and and it's already them a little bit. It was into desperation mode worse when they're behind. The Chiefs are the Ravens. Oh yeah, ah, the Ravens do it wait better, don't they? The Ravens came back against Indie and in Kansas City and they and they stuck to their run game in both games,

like they actually like do the there there? I think they come from behind a lot better just because it's weird this season, at least they've they've stuck with their base offense even with behind, and multiple scores against Kansas City, against UH Indie, even against Detroit although they got late lucked out with the field goal. Like, I think it's them to two things. One, Jason and those guys back there in the back, we've lost Mikey and I have lost our video feed of Todd and UH and Eric.

If we could get that back on the screen, we'd appreciate it. The other thing is, isn't it true also Eric, that teams are blitzing Mahomes at a far lesser rate this year and so like they've figured out that he's really as a young player. He was like, super, we're good against the blitz. Let's just stop with that. Even teams that are traditional blitz teams like the Ravens, like if you look at them, they blitz. They're in like the top five in blitz rates in the league. And

against Kansas City they blitz like zero times one time. Maybe, um, that was starting to happen at the end of last year. But you're right. I mean the all these defenses are engineered to beat the Chiefs. Now they're engineered to play too high, six in the box. You know, beg a team to run the football, but at worst begged them to throw it fifteen times on the way of the end zone. And it's a good numerical play, Like it's hard to throw the ball fifteen times in a row

without making a mistake. So I think it's good on the flip side. That's why you've seen teams like Tennessee in Baltimore beat these teams, because a team that's engineered to beat the Chiefs, by exclusion, is not engineered to beat Derrick Henry and so like you, that's why you see maybe a team like Tennessee at success against a team like Buffalo, because you know Buffalo will will stack

the box, but they don't have stacking players. They're engineered to played nicol and din uh and and stop Kansas City's offer last thing before we get the best best, because I know people want to hear the picks. But you said that the most interesting stat was that the Chiefs held their opponents to zero points in consecutive second halves.

I will disagree with you. I will. I will say that the most interesting stat of the entire week came from you, Eric, which I got sort of second hand on our show, which was it was such an unbelievable stat, Eric that I questioned it openly. I'm like, that can't be true, and I looked it up you. It was

your stat about Mike Shannon. Excuse me, Kyle Shanahan. You know where I'm going with this, having a worst winning percentage, a worst winning percentage of the head coach of the Niners then Mike Singletary had as the head coach of the Niners. That's unbelievable, unbelievable because we think of Singletary

one way and Shannon completely differently. Yeah, I mean I remember Singletary having was too and oh in oh and had Brett Farven the Vikings on the ropes um, and they needed that miracle catch by Greg Lewis, like they had some success with Shanahan in San Francisco, just went all the hell because of you know him in many ways Um and obviously hard I did great things with that talent um after that, But yeah, I mean the thing with Shanahan, and I got a lot of flak

for this in the off season because I I do this as part of my betting analysis. I build a model for play callers, and I have two models, and one of them's uniqueness of scheme, and the other one is how how well you do with the talent you have. And Shanahan, if you actually look at the numbers, has not overperformed the talent that they have on the field UM. And I think in a lot of ways you look at that and you say, well, he doesn't actually pick

the talent well like they have Brandon. I you can a first round draft pick who looked like Davante Adams at times last year, He's completely disappeared. They trade up for a trade sermon, and they prepared and they prefer Elijah Chill over him. They spend all this money on on on Tevin Coleman and Rahi most who's an undrafted like seven time cut guys the guy they end up with. Like,

I think Shanahan's interesting because he gets this premium. He was third in Pinnacles betting odds for they were third to win the Super Bowl after Kansas City and Tampa on like for months on Pinnacles betting odds to win the Super Bowl. Like, I think he sounds bad, but I think he's one of the more overrated entities. And all the football. Wow, it was terrible in the second half of the Super Bowl. Horrendous, absolutely horrendous and second

and twice twice twice, right, the Atlanta Falcons. Right, we'll always have twenty twelve with Kyle Shannahan and a great r G three, though we always have that. I'm interested to ask herek though you rank Matt la Fleur is the number one offensive play caller? Yes, what's because he's not?

Because because here's here's my thing with Matt Flour Like the Mike McCarthy offense with Rogers, I mean, Mike McCarthy had us all wondering whether or not Aaron Rodgers was washed right, And you know there were articles at the article my friend Ben Baldwin, I really respect right through the athletic and football outsiders, like he made a very compelling case and Aaron Rodgers would not affect what it

was not an effective quarterback anymore. You add to that the fact that the general manager for the Green Bay Packers does not want to acquire a secondary receiver. Right if you look at the target shares in Green Bay. I gotta pull this up here, but like Davante Adams literally gets the majority of the targets there or something. Yeah, exactly. So he's seventy two of targets and and yet they're in the in the Matt Lafleur era, they're undefeated when

Davante Adams is injured. Um up, and and it's a fairly compelling case that he gets the most out of that talent. Uh, you know, as any coach and football but as a head coach, I think you had him like fourth or fifth or something. Yeah. A part of that was just because you know, longevity, like I think, um, and there was also I think he's like quote woke on fourth down. Like. But he did have that mistake against the against Tampa Bay in the playoffs where he

went he kicked the field goal down eight. There have been some blunders there. There's also the fact that and I and I sort of put this in my rank, like he he took too long to fire Mike Patton. Mike Patton was clearly a negative ev play for them as a coordinator. Spot. Um, you know, you could say that. You could say the same thing about other guys that I've had, like Andy Reid stuck with Bob Sutton too long, probably cost him a Super Bowl and stuff like that.

But like you know, for me, it was also just giving sort of like I think Matt Lafleur as an offensive tactician has been a little bit more impressive than him as head coach. Wow, I'm just impressive. Why wouldn't I don't know him? Some research? Is that way? You asked me every day every week with the guest in case I don't know them. I love that. This is why I lead the interviews on odds on not m all. Okay, that's great, guys, the Todd radio personality and all of

my one all right. By the way, we still don't get to see your faces. Mike and I are operating a naked here. They got the best of the deal. They got the best of you. Eric, we start with you one of your three first Thursday Night Discussion. Thursday Night Discussion. Oh wait, Todd, what are the overall record you did you gain a gain on me? Are you a half game back or something? No, I'm ten and eleven.

You're eleven nine and one, so you're team ahead and the lost game and Gilly is right there behind us at seven. Silby gotta beat on the teasers, by the way. Um okay, so yes, you're right, Todd. We should talk about Thursday night football. This could be one of our opinions. Okay, you have opinion? Is it one of your best bets? Yes? Okay? Uh so it is the Cardinals and the Packers tonight,

Cardinals favored by six and a half. Now now that we know that both alums are did more importantly, Davante Adams. I think it's a hundred percent that he's not playing at this point. Someone said it was like, but it looks like he's not playing. He's not playing. He didn't make the trip. Uh. As Eric said, the Packers are six and oh since the beginning of twenty nineteen without

without Davante Adams, which everybody threw around mainstream media. But if you dive a little deeper on those six games, uh, they beat the eight and eight Cowboys Week five of twenty nineteen. They beat the three twelve and one Lions Week six of nineteen. That was the game that everybody

started noticing. Alan wizard Um. Green Bay had to benefit from some hands in the face penalties late in that game to come back and rally back to beat the eventual three twelve and one Lions Week seven of twenty nineteen. They beat the eventual seven and nine Raiders Week gate of twenty nineteen. They did beat a twelve and four Chiefs team, but guess who wasn't playing? Patrick Mahomes always in. And then the two games last year without Davante again they won all of them. There were six and oh

straight up five and one against the spread. UH. The Week three game against the Saints says the Saints finished twelve and four all. They didn't have Michael Thomas either the Saints in that game, and it was a Zadarius Smith forced fumble of Taysom Hill who was in as quarterback in that game that that was the eventual game winner. That was another Alan Lazard game. By the way, guess who else isn't playing Alan lazard Um And then finally

Week four of last year, they beat the Falcons. Falcons ended up four and twelve and guess what, Julio Jones exited that game in the second quarter. That was the Tonyan game, the Robert Tonyan game if you remember. So. Yeah, they were six and oh but it's not without its awards, I guess is what I'm saying. Eric, do you have an opinion on tonight's game, either side or total. I actually think the number is probably right. Um there was

a great discussion. I know you've had uh Andy or Drew from the Whale Caver podcast on your shows before. Um Gil, the number of points is not necessarily you know, it's it's not uniform, right, moving from three and a half to six and then six and a half. It has a lot to do with like the lack of a value in the NFL four and five, as well

as what I would call cluster injuries. And I have an article on PFF dot com where I talk about how a team does is actually far more correlated with how the secondary and tertiary receivers of a team do, and so a lot of times if you lose two receivers, it's worth more than two times losing both of them, um individually. So I think that that's a big issue here. Wide receiver is very much a weak link system, and so that's where I get I get a little bit worried.

But my opinion on this game is, I think when you look at the team total here, it depends upon where you look, like Arizona thirty minus one twenty is where I'm looking a little bit off shore. If you can find a better number, I think Arizona goes over this. I also like the over in the general game, UM.

But I think when you when you think about Arizona, they've they've had three statement games this year's underdogs at home against tennis or sorry on week one against Tennessee at Cleveland, UM, and then they had the other one against l A. They've made these statement games as dogs and no one's really still no one treats them as

a sevenin O team. Like I do think that there's going to be some sort of like we really need to prove it to the league tonight, and so I do think they put up thirty against what I've characterized as a soft gooley Green Bay Packers defense. And that leads right into my my pick of the week. If you want to hear my day, let's go my one of my three picks is going to be the over

fifty and a half in this ballgame. And the reason I like it um is, first of all, Okay, on the bad side, for all we've got all these injuries of Green Bay, we still have Aaron Rodgers though Aaron Rodgers is still the quarterback, and all I need for him to get me is, say twenty one points. If Arizona is going to put up numbers green base defense, is green Day based defense really that great? They gave up thirty eight to New Orleans in Week one, and

then they have nice number is against crappy teams. Detroit scored seventeen, Pittsburgh got seventeen, Chicago got fourteen, Washington Redskins no offense to my good friend Gilly Ice got ten. But that's because they stink and they figured out Heineke. So when they when they played against good offensive teams, look, Cincinnati got twenty two and could have had twenty eight if they went to miss the thousand field goals as well. So I think there's no reason why Arizona can't get

thirty one in this game. And then all you need is Rodgers to get you twenty one. Even without receivers, he can get your twenty one. Rodgers will find a way to to to smoke in mirrors you up to to get the one. So give me over fifty and a half in this game. I think it's too low. And also the fact that it's come down. I believe it opened, uh somewhere in like the fifty three range. I just think it's it's fifty three and a half. Even I think it's it's too much of a reaction.

I still have Aaron Rodgers. And by the way, if I get back door, if it's a situation where where I get Aaron Rodgers, is the backdoor quarterback, you know, down fourteen points later or something, Chuck, I'll take that all day long. Give me the over fifty and a half. He also failed to mention cause that the with that Washington three points total with four red zone possessions and five possessions inside the thirty last week, the Redskins should

have covered easily. Then. That included the Taylor Heinekey third down dive forward stop progress when he could have just waltzed in, not waltz but and then the yeah he Lambeau leaved because he loved the Packers growing up. And then he fumbles on four three gathers and they said it was stopped at the regather too. Don't don't get me started. Um okay, So that's that's your number one. That's your number one bet. Okay. I love I love

Gilly talking about the Washington football team. He's just like he's so disappointed. He's just don't just don't get me started. Years of years of sorrow. Oh they were such a gem as a kid. All right, Uh, Eric, your first bet that you love or do you have any Thursday night thoughts? I'm sorry. I want to take the Packers here with six and a half, but I can't be because they have no no they'll pick, they have no

pass rush. They could never get to Taylor Heineke last week A. You're gonna sit there and let the little road runner now sit back there without any pressure. I'm concerned you go road running. I'm concerned. Well that's yeah, and instead of mayor of bunch, can build it your

your friend. Nicko Lombardico doesn't this game remind you of the game Green Bay played last year where they went on the road against San Francisco and like basically all of San Francisco's players were out and that spread was something like six and it was because the market, like I mean, the books, I mean you could you guys could say this better than me, but like the books don't like opening themselves up to that big of a middle, right, and so like you have, you know, in that game,

I believe San Francisco was six and a half point dogs by the time that all was said and done, even though they had no players, and green Bay kind

of like, you know, mop the floor with them. Like I don't necessarily know if that's going to happen because of the point you made, Todd, which is at Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers and I and Matt laflour um, But I do I do wonder if if people are gonna take Green Bay, do they see the tail risk here where like having no players really hurts you, Aaron Jones helps, but yeah, it's tough to take the Packers here. Can I just say one thing about what he just

said about middles Place real quick? If you watch people who don't bet end end game, you should start paying attention to end game. Because the Indianapolis San Francisco game, for the entire first half of the game, there were books that we're playing forty seven and a half while the other one was fifty. And then it would go fifty three and a half to fifty six, and then it would go fifty one to fifty three and a half.

So I don't know who's right who's wrong, But the bottom line is the bottom line is would you say someone's wrong? Yeah, So the bottom line is you don't ever see middles and before you know, you can't go to a Vegas sports book before the game and get three and a half and then go down to circle and get six. It doesn't exist, right. You have to you have to predict where the market's going to go. You can get part of that. The longer the game goes in, the more the high of the probability on

some of those numbers, like a lot of middles. Like early early career sports betters will bet middles not knowing that the points are not worth a big But the later you go into some of these games, especially if you're still getting and oftentimes you're not getting this, but like if you're still getting minus one ten on both sides. Oftentimes, like the later on the game goes, the higher the probability of landing on certain key numbers right as you

get some middles are actually more. Again, the most books have these, but there are soft offshore books. There are soft books. Um. You know, the further along you get in the game, the higher the probability is that you land on a number in the middle of those two. Of course, well, of course, because you're getting closer to the end and you have less of a game to go. But my point is, but my point is if you if you don't like in game right, you should start

liking it because if you get opportunities like this. I'm not even saying you should go for middles. I'm just saying have an opinion on the game. If you like forty seven and if you like go over, take forty seven and a half, if you like under take under fifty. The point is, where else do you see giving away two and a half points in the in NFL? Ever? Never know the short runaway point is such a such a great one. Though our buddy he loves to take

advantage of short runways in multiple sports. I think he does it so very well in the NBA and baseball, especially because what he does is bet, you know, bet the bet the um under and then trying to get through the bottom of the lineups. That's that's the play with quality pictures sophisticated. But but even for the people who aren't sophisticated with getting middles, I'm just saying, if you're gonna pick a side, you're still getting an incredible

advantage here, you know what I mean. All Right, we gotta we gotta because Mikey has a show to do, so we gotta we gotta get to the best bets that we gotta get through. By the way, we should mention J. J. Watt is out tonight. He's probably out for the is out for the rest of the season,

season ending shoulder surgery. They just flashed up a stat here he has missed thirty two of the last eighty seven games since the year J. J. Watt has and the Packer stat that everybody flashes up twenty five and oh the path Kers are under Matt Lafleur in the regular season when they win a turnover margin or when they don't play in California or Florida. I think there's a similar state. All right, Eric, your first best bet is, yeah,

this is my my boss's game, Chris's game. I'm gonna go with with Dallas laying uh, you know, anything up to two and a half against Minnesota. UM. I tweeted this out yesterday. Minnesota. If you look at the the bottom five quarterbacks in the NFL and average stepth of target in the first three quarters of a game on early downs, it's Jared Goff, It's Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett, Um, big Ben Roethlisberger, and Andy Dalton. That's one good quarterback

and four guys who should be backups. And people wonder why Minnesota plays so many close games and why they get snake bitten by you know, field goals and all this kind of stuff. It's that they don't trust Kirk Cousins, and you know, Kirk turned. Kirk has turned into John Elway at the end of games this year end Like, I think he deserves a great deal of credit, But in the first part of games they cut him off. And against teams like Caroline, against seems like Detroit, that

will work. Against the team like Dallas. When the Vikings don't have when the Vikings don't have Michael Pierce, when the Vikings don't have uh Patrick Peterson in the lineup, I think Dallas could lap the Vikings by the time they figure out they're even in the game. Okay, mikey yere number two your first. Yeah, I'm gonna take the Los Angeles charges charges? What is it? Five? Todd, Yeah, los Angeles chargers. I have as five, five and a half.

We'll give you the five. Look embarrassed slashed here by the Patriots and so five it was like a million or nothing, forty five to nothing or whatever. And that Anthony Lynn fiasco as well. I know Rufus says Anthony Lynn very underrated and there's no value in having Staley as the coach. One of the most interesting conference on the podcast this year. Yes, look, here's the other thing, um and the charges off of buy here's the other thing. Though. I love this move to get rid of Kayne, Oh

finally the kicker and go to Hopkins. I think that's a huge upgrade for them at the kicking position because I also they will have confidence in him when the coaches losing a confidence just like Washington didn't. Hopkins gets the new guy and he gets the kick block. Now next time, Rivera is not even gonna take the field goal because he got the premium. I mean, it's snowballs when you have confidence or you don't have confidence in the kicker. I think the Chargers are the better team here.

It's a better spot for them on a five. God, no, it's your first person is over. I'm this is yeah. Listen, I'm gonna I'm gonna go San Francisco forty Niners here and I'm gonna lay. Yeah, yeah, I think I am. What is it three and a half or four? I have niners? You know what, it's mostly four. We'll give you the three half. Well, if it's mostly four, give me the four. So four it is. Um, Khalil Mack is out. Do we know that for a fact? He is out for the for the Bears. He's out, Uh doubtful.

So sounds like he's out doubtful typically meeting out these days. But we'll see. Um, Jimmy Jimmy g is in. Listen. I let's let's get rid of the atmospheric river game for a second. Um, all that we've said about the Niners, rings true. But if this team is anything like they're supposed to be, you have to be able to beat the Chicago Bears team justin fields with five turnovers last week, and yet it was against the Bucks. Um. But he

is just he looks bewildered when he's on the sideline. UM, I like San Francisco here because if I have my own personal priors, this spread would shock me at that point. So I'm gonna rely on those About these two teams, I don't think the Bears are a good football team in any way. Uh, they will try to rely on their run game, which is what I didn't understand about it going up against Tampa Bay. But I didn't think they would because you can't run the ball in Tampa.

Even Dallas knew that. With Ezeki Eli, they didn't even try to run the ball. You can't run the ball. And here comes Naggie on first down the first play of the game, run the ball and getting the second and twelve, and the game was over. At that point. The game was over. This guy, though he sends his no pressure. He's got like Dave Craig hands or something. He fumbles every time he gets hit. He's terrible. I think. I also think Naggie is terrible. Naggie is a terrible

play caller. Well, so I'm gonna go with the coaching advantage here too. I I still think Kyle Shanahan. Again, maybe this is the RG three year polluting my thinking on Kyle Shannon um, but I absolutely But what about the year he had Matt Ryan too? Such a standout here for Matt Ryan, he did get crushed into the second half of the Super Bowl, but he did have that year. I'm taking San Francisco called a Malcolm Gladwell

blink thing where I can see the Niners. But by the way, they do have to figure out what the deal is with Brandon Aiyuk. That dude has disappeared twenty targets all year, ten catches all year for fewer than a hundred yards. It's unbelievable that he has. Jimmy g has the most interception babbit I've ever seen in my entirely. It finally caught up with him late in that game

last year last week. But he throws the ball to the other team every play and they drop it right in the dropped the interception that drop Kirk Cousins in d c was that had the best babbit go whatever. That dude would pit pit defenders in the chest, that it would somehow bounce off them all the time. So I'm going I'm going with the Niners. What's that? I like calling it babbit. That's a cool Yeah, that's our little thing. Alright. Holmes is bad at the zero this year.

Uninterceptible ball. That's right, he's it's a negative number. Yeah, alright, Eric, your number two. Okay. I I actually kind of liked Chicago, but I'm gonna go away. I think Chicago is a great bet when everybody says they're the worst team in football, which I think that was that happened against Detroit week whatever. But this is the one. I'm gonna go a second. Carolina at Atlanta over I thought we were gonna match. We did not match, but I thought we were to Carolina.

Matt Ryan uh this season Um has has really looked good. He has a one point for passer rating when pressured. So a lot of the narratives about him being kind of like Wilting this year and not having the arm strength or anything, I think those are a little bit overblown. Kyle Pitts once they found out how to use him as you know. Now you know my opinion, probably the tight end I'd pick over anybody in the league if you gave me a choice. Moving forward, Ridley has been fine.

I think as a secondary player to Pitts, he's he's great, And Cordell Patterson's a guy that I think they're using really well. Um, So I think on that side the ball, they're gonna be fine. There's a lot of injuries on the side, uh of Carolina, you know, the cornerbacks Shaq Thompson questionable. And then on the other side the we only you know, any any defense that gives up four touchdown passes the to a tongue of Valoa is on

watch for me. And so while Sam Donald has been absolutely horrible over the last like three or four weeks, I think he gets right here. It's also indoors, So that really helps give me the over in that game. Eric, Can I ask a question. Yes, Michael Lombardi this week keeps saying I don't care what two is no good, I don't care what Pro football focus. He said on my show, He goes, I don't care what Pro football Focus is. Just pro football Focus. Have two ranked in

the top top seven or eight quarterbacks or something. He said, two eight grades in the last two games. So, um, look at his war is probably still in the bottom half of the league, but he's his last two games have looked have looked good. I think part of part of the issue though is small samples. And they've also played Jacksonville in the Land in the last week, so I would curb my enthusiasm about too. Uh. But but yeah,

he's graded well. Uh. Michael Lombardi also said the same thing about J. J. Watts when he was signed by Arizona and J J. Watson a monster this year. So you know, we'll see what the batting averages on the I don't care what PF thinks about player X to it was six I think in terms of the last two weeks. He has six in terms of the quarterback rading the last two weeks, but not overall. Uh. Yeah, he he took a he took a shot because I listened to that, so he took a shot. He really

good at picking out who's really entertaining on the radio. Okay, hey pick number pick number two, Mikey. But this is tough. I I don't know, this is all sucks. Yeah, it's it's so it is. Really I like this this this slate worst than last week. Yeah, I did me too, Ah you want me to go second second? You know, I looked at this for an hour this morning, and I came up with one playing one. He was too busy researching Eric. He didn't get his picks, I was.

I mean, there's you's a legitimate question. Is there any angst for Eric talking about football for a living having gotten his degrees from Nebraska Lincoln. You don't get it now you don't watch college football. I'm I'm being facetious. Obviously, I was a big BRODSCAT fan growing up, so I have disdain for what's happened, huge huge. I stood in line at Starbucks next Joe Opolini when I was there, and I knew the guy was going to be a bad coach, and seeing how difficult to order a lot

that's awesome. I looked capable of just like you know, nourishing so great. I knew from my moming Sorry Todd, her number two, Todd, Sorry, okay, my number two. I'm gonna go back to the well that got me a w last week. If you guys were paying attention. I took the under in the Arizona Houston game. Why did

I do it? I said, Houston cannot score the football. Um, you don't really have to be a math genius to look at the scores for Houston and realize they're having a hard time getting the double digits any week in National Football League play. Take out the Tyrod Taylor games, and they got twenty four against their I mean, they got nine against Arizona, zero against Buffalo, twenty two against New England, which is the outlier, three against Indianapolis, and

five last week at Arizona. So to me, I don't think the Houston offense is a team that can get more than ten points in this football game against the Rams. I just don't see it. The Stanford quarterback is not good. The rest of the offense is not good, so the whole the team is not good. I'm sorry. They they're okay on defense, but on offense they're absolutely horrendous. So if I give them ten points and I'm saying I'm going under forty eight, and guys check me if I'm not.

Is it forty eight or forty seven and a half? Forty eight? Okay? So I'll take the under forty eight, which means even at thirty eight ten I would still push ten I get a win. So give me the under in the Rams against Houston under forty eight, because I think a lot of these NFL teams when they play Houston, they get up a million points there in the fourth quarter to just running the ball. Let's end this game. We don't need to show anything. We don't need to throw the Cooper cop or Robert Woods or

any of that nonsense. Just give it to Henderson. Let's end the game and get the hell out of here. We win thirty three to six. You know, so under forty eight in the Rams game, I just don't see Houston scoring enough to get you over Alright, Mike, I'm gonna go with Todd. What's the total in the Broncos

football team game? The Broncos football team, uh is playing the Washington football team, and I have you're looking for the football the total total points scored in the game for both football games at some forty four and a half and some forty four's. We'll give you the forty four and a half because we're feeling generous that well, you don't know all that way I'm going over, so give me the forty four over. Yeah, look at look at the football team couldn't get Bishop Gorman off the

field on third down. They can get nobody off the field on third down. And look this Denver team, they have no linebackers. The whole linebackers are out out. You know. They let case Keenum sit back there. The guy hadn't played like fourteen years, be very comfortable in the pocket on Thursday night and acclimate himself to the game. I also think the elevation in Denver helps the football team kicking him. Look, they went up and down the field

against the Packers, they just didn't convert. They didn't pay off here. I think this total is too low. Two gloves will convert enough there downs and Washington will score more in the red zone over forty four Todd, Okay, I am vic Fangio. Defensive struggle. I still don't get. And then he said, oh, Deshaun should want to go to Denver yesterday. He never gets off this vic Fangio.

We should spend like ten minutes, but I cann The trade deadline is Tuesday, and I still like, if you sift through that NFL word salad that they came out with it is you. I thought I would assume that teams are going down the trade road with Houston having some sign of some kind of back uh, you know, back channel confirmation from the NFL that DeShawn will be able to play this year. And it appears by Roger Goodale just opening up his mouth and saying, hey, I

can't put him on the exemplist. I don't have enough information that he's signaling to all the teams. Yeah, he can play for you this year. I don't know about next year, but he can play for you this year. So that appears to be the case. But what does it say about DeShawn that Miami's the team he wants to play for that has six losses. What does it say about the Dolphins saying we were wrong about Twah. Shouldn't they all be fired right because they picked two

over Justin Herbert. What does it say about the NFL who gave Zeke six games when that there was like an affidavit saying none of this really happened because they were so bummed that they were they were so sensitive to how they treated Ray Rice and Josh Brown and now Deshaun who has twenty two civil allegations and ten criminal complaints. They're like, yeah, we we don't have enough information. Just he should Playze is incredible. There were a couple

of bad stories at massage parlors. What it could happen anyway? Eric, what's your take on this? Uh that if you're assuming any sort of logical consistency or coherence in the NFL's application of anything, you're you're like missing how to You're missing the point? Like I just you know it. The Deshaun Watson thing is interesting, right because I think when owners look at him, they see dollars, right, they see one of the top five um talented talents in the NFL.

Like he he's probably what a notch below Mahomes And so when you when you have that player on your team, like that's what they're all going after, right, And so I think that's why the owners are sort of and Goodell is sort of doing their bidding right Like the I don't know, I don't know if they could. I mean, they could pay me enough to do Goodell's job, but like to to stand in front and take those bullets and and I could look like a complete idiot when

when God knows he's not. He's like that, that's that sucks. It's just incredible. Exactly he knows better. That's a well put, that's a what is what is the technical story right now for Deshaun? Are they saying it's like up in the air? What is the what is the NFL story right now? As long as he's with Houston, they don't The NFL doesn't have to do anything because there's sort of this purgatory thing happening and they don't have to

rule on anything. Right as soon as he gets traded, they would have to step in and say he is Houston, Houston saying we're not playing him because of this? What was the Houston's not playing him because you're like, yeah, they he doesn't want to play because he doesn't want to play right perfect level of dysfunction for the Technically, technically he could play if he wanted to play right now,

he could play for Houston right now. Yes, the NFL would have to step in, So what's he so, what is his argument that he doesn't want to play, He doesn't want to be there anymore. He think he thinks they leaked all these stories he's doing the NBA. You know the NBA thing where it's like I'm dictating, Well, that's nonsense. I this whole thing is too smells. I haven't sports one place where there's not craziness. Can I just have one part of my life where the people

haven't gone totally insane? Do I have to deal with this? And even in sports? Please? Can I just have a quarterback that Okay, I'm taking Carolina. Okay, I'm taking Carolina. Caroline on my mind. Um Falcons defense stinks. They're last in the NFL in defensive yards per point and uh, Carolina is they? Yeah? That the last in the in the NFL and in defensive yards per point, meaning that they've had a very bend, don't break kind of defense to this, to this juncture, Carolina has had, believe it

or not, a tougher schedule than Atlanta has had. And I know Sam Donald was just Sam Donald ish last week by the way they put in p J Walker hoping hoping they could get something. P J Walker, I know he was a was the XFL. Just in the XFL, I believe it was. I didn't know him. He he went three for fourteen, three for fourteen for thirty three yards. So it's back to Sam Donald. By the way, some reports Joe Clapp finally came out today and say Matt

Rule doesn't really like coaching in the NFL. So I'm saying all these college jobs out there that people think are going to somebody else, wat, Well, the NFL scoreboards don't really like Matt Rule, So it's sort of it's kind of mutual. It's interesting confus. I'm taking Carolina largely because of that's that with the with the Falcons, I think Carolina. You know, look, they almost beat they should have beaten Minnesota, and that should have beaten but they

almost beat Minnesota. Minnesota let them back in the game a couple of weeks ago. I think Carolina is a better football team, and I'm gonna take Carolina here on the road catching points. I thought you would tease them. Maybe you'll tease them as well. Maybe I will. We'll see, uh Todd number two. By the way, do you guys disagree with me that you don't like it when the world leagues into sports or am I just totally all or sports League saidto the world, which is way, which

is I don't want either of it. I'm watching sports to get away from the world. I don't want it in the I don't know. I just it just drives me crazy. Trumble will only go to the games in Atlanta. You know that is that is um That is right wing America's biggest trouble with ESPN right for they believe ESPN to be ejecting politics too much into it. By the way, I I would be aligned more with ESPN politically, and I would understand that position, So I I see

what you do. Think the question to Tomlin was inherently racist about being interested in usc No. But why why why did you go to racism or for that question? Because the three different ESPN commentators have said it's an inherently racist question because they never asked the white coaches that question. That's why I went there, and you mentioned ESPN.

I think that I think that you could listen. I actually think Mike Tomlin is correct for being that piste off about it because I don't think you asked Sean Payton or Andy Reid those questions whether it was racist. Maybe you can make that claim. I didn't necessarily Carson Palmer kept linking him to the job that I mean, that's the genesis of the question. I think if you go back and you and you listen to what the guy actually asked. The guy asked him very reasonable questions.

He jumped down his throat, but the guy was like, hey, you said you know this. We heard this, and Mike Tomlin just went nuts on him. Anyway, it's Mike Tomla lives three blocks from here. He's not going in. It's the most stable job in pro sports. Why would he leave? He's not He's not elite, but he's definitely very good. Pittsburgh Beautiful in the Winner, exactly where are you? Where are you? Eric? I live in Cincinnati, Ohio. Okay, so you got anything, beautiful? U turn number two, Todd. We

gotta run comber three. Number three, number three, Todd, Yes, number three. Okay, I'm gonna go with one more under here in the Philadelphia Eagles against the Lions under forty eight. I think this is too high. Uh. If you've watched any of the Detroit football team, they tend to be competitive, but it's because they're playing well defensively, not really scoring a lot um. If you look at their their scores, they get a lot of these sixteen point games. Uh, and they run the ball a lot I am not um.

Jalen Hurts. You know, he may turn out to be a good quarterback. For right now, he is not a good quarterback. So I don't like what I see um from Philadelphia. On the positive offensive side, I mean, they haven't really done anything. Oh, you're the only per team. They scored thirty points against wass Kansas City, and you can throw that out. Every other game they get twenty one, twenty two, twenty one. There's nothing special on offense, and

Detroit gets seventeen every week seventeen seventeen, fourteen, seventeen. They can't get into the twenties. The Lions they run the ball, they dink it off to Swift and and they play decent defense to keep them hanging around. So to me, this seems like a defensive game. I don't understand why it's forty eight. I just think that's just a crazy

high number. I mean, Detroit hasn't gotten to Detroit only got over twenty points this year one time, and that was a phony, faghazy situation in the first game of the year where they got the on sides kick and all those late scores against San Francisco. Other than that, Detroit can't get more than seventeen points in a game, so I don't know how you're getting that a little bit like Reilly is like the ultimate slump buster defense. They they don't stunt, they don't blitz, they don't play,

they don't play man coverage, they don't disguise coverages. They're like the easiest defense to operate against. And look there a car like at a perfect game last week, Like I don't think God's gonna be amazing, but I do. And then the the sneaky one for your bet, Todd, and I agree with you generally, like I think if there was no such thing as garbage time, this is the perfect bet. A half of Jalen hurts. His production

is in the fourth quarter. So like you could see a game where Detroit is plucky and has like a seventeen, you know, ten lead and Jalen hurts, you know, they go back and forth and score twenty four points the fourth quarter and you're really irritated that I'm not gonna bet any of this pre game anyways, I'm an in game better. But my point is, if I have to take a game, you know, pre game, I'm taking this under because by the way, Philadelphia's defense. They only gave

up eighteen to Carolina. Yeah, granted, they gave up points to Tampa Bay. They give up points to Vegas, they give up points to Kansas City Dallas. But those are good offensive teams. You know San Francisco when he got seventeen on them. So I don't see why they can't hang in and only give up. Let's say they give up. I win anyways, So I'm going under under forty. So, Todd, what you're saying is, like Michael Lombardi, you're posting a non betting record. What does that mean? Well, you said

you don't bet any of these things pre flop. You're giving out three pre flop picks and then telling you what your record is in the pre flop. You're giving out a non betting record. Oh no, No. What what I'm saying is, I will typically I'll be leaning one second fair fair fair point by Mikey. My My point, Mikey is typically I don't bet the game. Before the game, I'll be leaning this way and then if it if it's going the way I like it, then I'll be jumping in on the end game. Last week, I didn't

play the Arizona game pre game. But you know, I always tell people, if they're gonna give you the half of the answer key, why not take half of the answer key before you make your bet. Gilly will tell you. The smart way to bet NFL games is in game. Gilly, please tell them smart way to bet NFL there really is. What are the Jets getting? Um odd? I know? Man? Oh god, the New York Jets. The New York Jets are getting a lot of points. There's a tremendous winnibag Jets. Well,

they have Wilson is in goal. They're ten and a half. I have I'm a late ten and a half with the Bengals. Wow, tough to do an unfamiliar role. But listen, this is a good defensive team. The story is out Oh they hooked up Chase with Borrow. The story is their defense is decent. Their defense. You have to work to score points on this team. And the Jets no quarterback, a small team there. Things aren't going well for Salat in this first year. I think the Bengals now have

a clear path here. They're a very dangerous team in the a f C. All of a sudden, I don't like to lay these kind of points. I don't like nothing else on the board by other consideration, will be lay that the points with the Rams. Actually this week against I thought about give me the Bengals. I thought I thought about having Cincinnati's one of my three. Mike. Another thing, when I texted you last week, and I

would love to hear what Eric says about this. Remember when I in like the early in the second quarter of the Seattle game, Seattle was averaging seven point two yard per play because they had an eighty five yard ridiculous touchdown to Metcalf. The rest of the plays they had like two yards of play, So I knew Seattle wasn't scoring. I took team total under there and I won the bet. But if you would have gone by the stats, you so they're averaging seven yards of play,

they're doing great. Eric, What do you think about that when when the when the stats kind of get corrupted like that, What are your feelings on that? Well, I would hope that there's a little bit of So like in our in game stuff, we have what's called success rate, and we have what's called expected points. So like a play like that's gonna have a lot of expected points but from a success rate standpoint, it's boolean right like at zero one. So essentially like you emerge those two

together to deal with that kind of noise. Um. I took Seattle pre under nineteen and a half pre games, so like I was on the same side as you the whole time, and that first play just kind of like like could spook me a little bit. But when you watch that offense, they're not scoring any points, even though Gino Smith is the cover king at two and oh a t s so far as a starter. But

but that's my point. That's my point is is you can look at that and go, oh wow, they've got all these yards, but it's bullshit because they got one player. I don't think in game stuff. I don't think people are betting yards per play anymore like I'd be I'd be surprised if people with in game models are betting yards for play. I think it's a little bit more sophisticated than that. But you're right, I think I think intuition.

If somebody just turned the game on and was like, oh my goodness, what's happening and they bet over reflexively, obviously they're paying the juice and more to the sports book. In that case, Eric, did you give a third pick? I didn't. I'm gonna go and I was trying to choose between Titans plus one and a half and what I'm gonna pick, which is the over in the Chargers New England Patriots game styles make fights, and the Los

Angeles Chargers are engineered to beat the Chiefs. They play six in the box, they play six in the secondary, uh most of the time. And um, you know they're their linebackers are safeties. Kenneth Murray's out, Um, And so I think New England's gonna have some success on the ground with their group of running backs. Um. It's also interesting if you actually like look at this, like Herbert's been great, a hundred six passer rating when clean, seventy

four passer rating when pressure. Matt Jones is one passer rating when pressured, seventy three passer rating win clean. Matt Jones has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks. Kendrick Bourne, who I know has a little bit of a shoulder injured Jacobe Myers. The two tight ends they signed this past offseason have been slow to go, but they've been

pretty good the last few weeks. So give me New England, you know, to put up enough points um to keep this game, to keep this game interesting, and for Justin Herbert. Anytime I have a quarterback who can get me seventy yards in one play reliably, I'm gonna bet over in his games. I had a debate who but oh, go ahead, Eric, you mentioned earlier the top or the lowest five yards per target on early downs in the first three quarters of games, and you said four of these guys should

be backups and one's a real starter. Is Roethlisberger or Cousins the real starter out of that group? Hey? The way better quarterback? Big? Okay, I just want to clarify, Hey, you know what Big Roethlisberger should change his nickname to. Has Ben Roethlisberger shot straight to the Hall of Fame. But man, the longer he plays, the more you're like, who would you Who would you rather have at quarterback for your team? This is a mall and I had

this disagreement on air this week. Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield currently currently at price if you just had to choose between the two, not at Kirk Cousins, but I believe much money I get you, but um all thinks that it's the other way. Baker is a better quarterback. No, got a lot shot, got a lot to proof. Still Baker Mayfield versus Kirk Cousins. Yeah, are you on the Mayfield. I'll take Baker Mayfield. I can't stand Kirk Cousins. I don't care what you say about their You love her Cousins.

You've always loved Kirk, love him you last. Remember when when we when we were when Gil was in the hospital and we had that show and you said, Kirk Cousins, I said, the Vikings at twelve to one could win the NFC, And you just tore me apart for Kirk Cousins. And and what happened. They didn't win. Cousins had at one of the biggest mistakes in Vikings history. But he's one of the better quarterbacks in Vikings history. It shows

you how how hard it is to get quarterback right. Yes, as Washington just kept in Washington, Kirk kirk Cousins bet on himself, kept doing the one year deals with Washington. Finally, because they didn't want to give him a long term deal. Finally, the Vikings were three years, eighty four million, dollars, and

everybody in d C was like, see you, buddy. They were they were chasing the case Keenom performance here, the seventeen case Keendom thing, and and like they gave him a three year deal because they figured, oh, Kirk will be better over a three year ark than case Keenum will be. But like they were trying to replace that production from seventeen. You were going to replace that production

that was an amazing thing with the Washington football team. Now, the Washington football team signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to win more games in their twenties schedule that included no good quarterbacks. And the problem is the schedule had a bunch of great quarterbacks in it, so their defense is gonna be as good. The Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to try to win the seventeen Super Bowl again. Yes, and it's not how it works, not how players get worse and worse.

It was a bad signing, you know, and no worse fealing than having Kirk Cousins or Philip Rivers needing to get you a late score and you have the bat. You can't feel anywhere. He's done it this year, though, Man, he's done it this year. Cover time Rivers just doesn't get in on eight cracks from the two and Cousins will throw the interception in the end zone. By the way, Jared Golf, you try watching him win a football game.

It is the most Oh my god, having having survivor last week with the Patriots and then rooting against the riding against the Rams, Jared Golf was miserable. Doesn't do Isn't this just really flatter McVeigh where he took that team with Golf? It kind of does that to me. It does, by the way. The last thing about the Kirk Cousins thing, it also is a commentary on how you can only win a Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame quarterback or a guy at a rookie deal.

And so this weird economic structure they have in the NFL where you get to a point where you've played good enough right for for certain chunky years, but you're not Hall of Fame and now you're off your rookie contract. It's such a fucked up thing for teams to have to make that financial commitment at that middle class quarterback. Yeah, that's right, there's no middle well said, there's no middle

class contract. By the way, my last one was a choice between the Titans the Bengals laying the points or the Jacksonville Jaguars catching points against the Seahawks. I'm going with the ugliest one of all of them. I'm going with Jacksonville and is largely just a fate of Pete Carroll. That display the other night was David Shaw ask against Michigan State in that board the quarterback, I don't care that it was Geno Smith. At some point you have

to trust your quarterback to do something. You cannot just keep running the We must establish the run. Good lord. That was horrific to watch, and I listen best playing all they could have done do what the Colts did the other night in the atmospheric River. Just throw it up and have a San Francisco defensive back run into a wide out. Whatever it is, but that was what

they were doing. I actually think Jacksonville, because Urban Meyer finally discovered James Robinson's part of the team a couple of weeks ago, I think they go in and at the very least up catching three in a hook here, right, I get the hook. I think Jacksonville covers this game. I think maybe they even win it. By the way, Mike McCarthy on Dak Prescott quote, there's no timeline on when we're going to make a decision. I think you take in the full week, so there is some possibility

Dak won't be there. Interesting. Interesting, Um, I'm taking Jacksonville. That's my third. So I have a poop poop ladder of picks. I have San Francisco, Carolina and Jacksonville. God, you'll probably go three and probably go three. And who's your Are you giving out your survivor picker? Not till tomorrow. I'm gonna give out mine. This will be the last week.

I'm gonna end up with Kansas City because of the four big favorites, I've already used Cincinnati, Buffalo has a Christmas consider ration, and so it comes down to the Rams versus Kansas City. Kansas City, this is the last real shot to use them because everything else after this is going to be even dicier. The Rams there is another opportunity. I think they hosted the Jaguars, so listen, I get it. They're a double digit home favorite in a standalone game, and I'm terrified, but I have to

play them. I'm playing Kansas cityd what's your teaser. I got two minutes teaser legs. Todd Todd to Tea, it's really tough this week to come up with a good teaser. Um, I'm gonna go ahead. Let's go before me. I'll take the cold I mean, I'll take Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half. Right, So that's the obvious one, Tennessee plus seven and a half, and then I need another leg. Why don't you give your as well? I think of my second leg, because you can already have Tennessee. I

have Tennessee as well. I have Arizona in Tennessee. Yeah, okay, so Tenny. It seems to be the obvious one, right, no other one? Are you actually going through any key numbers? Maybe maybe Minnesota? Real? Yeah, Minnesota would be a wall teaser leg Minnesota. I don't want Minnesota. They I can't take care of Kirk Cousins. I have a I have a rule. I don't bet Philip Rivers. I don't bet Kirk Cousins. What you say, Eric would Cousins No less,

that's right, it's supersized Kurt Cousins. I'm gonna take I know it's not gonna be mathematically correct, but I'm going to take the Chargers as my second leg, even though you know I'm not really getting the full amount of points. But that's because I don't want to take I don't want to take Arizona because I could see Aaron Rodgers pulling something out of his ass. So you know, give me the uh, that would be the Chargers down to

plus one. So give me the Chargers plus one with Tennessee plus seven and a half, and I think you guys have a chance to actually pick games on me on this desert. I don't feel great. I'm the man to beat Mike. What you got to take? Titans obviously seven and a half, and I'll I'll take the Cardinals down tonight, alright, So you you, you and me have the same Eric, We're so rude. We did Eric Cars Cardinals,

Titans also, okay? And then final two questions which we ask every week on the megapod forever one the big favorite, most likely to lose out right, So it's all the four double digit favorites that we just mentioned. Cincinnati at the Jets, the Rams at Houston, Kansas City hosting the Giants, and of course, uh, what did I forget of the four Chief No already said that one Chief Buffalo, thank you Buffalo hosting Miami. Any of those and I guess if I I shouldn't include any of the six and

a house because those were the obvious ones. So the big of those big four favorites, Eric, if I came to you from the future and I said one of them lost out right, which would it have been? Uh? Um? Giants? Giants win against Kansas? Me too. I'm sorry for your survivor, but I think that's the most I would say the same thing, Todd, Kansas City. Are we counting the Green Bay game? Do you pay attention? I was doing the the the what's the code? Um? I would I guess

I'm going with yeah. I guess the Giants could be Kansay they're not going to though, alright the Kansas Last question, we live in a bizarro world. You must pick a side, you must bet a side on every single game, except for one game you will take a pass on. Eric. What's the game you take a pass on? Uh? Great question? Um, Philadelphia, des Philadelphia, Detroit, Mikey, Steelers, Browns. Todd. I don't like Steelers Browns either. I don't know what I'm getting a Keenum.

I will take uh Philadelphia Detroit, Philadelphia, Detroit for sure. Thank you guys, appreciate Mike. He's gotta go do odds On so he's out of here. Mike palm everybody. Todd, thank you Eric. Do you do college football just pro football college to Yep, you do college. Did you see that Wake Forest Army game last week? Yeah? I had weight, but I also had under Oh you had under Yeah, because that was when I wanted was going to ask

you about these runaway college games. Todd, since we haven't finished the podcast yet, why don't we finish the podcast and then you could ask him about already finished you already Shout out to Max Freed and Alex Bregman, the first Tribesman on Tribesman World Series event last night. Fabulous moments for some of us, Yes, I don't know, fabulous moment for some of us. It's a big historic Thank you for listening to the megapod. Good luck with all your week at eight bet. I can't even say it.

All your week eight bets in the National Football League. Good luck from all of us at the Megapod. Now you can ask your question that don bot t ta battle w t Baton Book,