Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 7 Preview

well received. Loved having Ace back here. Today we have another esteem guest. First of the staples of the show though to my left at the D, Vice President Operations at Circuit Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and also co host, although he might consider himself a host one I don't know. Co host of the Lead of Lead Lead Lead Lead Hosts of Odds on at Visa in weekdays at eleven am Pacific two pm Eastern is Michael Palm. You know, Mikey, I'm doing great. Hello James, how are you good? To

hear from you again. Todd is always in the Gillionaire Thank you. By the way, I didn't hear this, Mikey, but somebody told me that a mam was arguing they shouldn't have gone for it on fourth down when Josh Allen's slipped. That's correct? Correct? Is that right? What was what was his reasoning? His reasoning was you go to

overtime with the better team. Yeah, but you have a much better chance of winning the game then, and if you don't make it and kicked the field book, it's still gonna have the same Derrick Henry's killing you too. They had struggled in the red zone. They don't look I I moved on, wasn't it you moved on? Todd wishing it from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA. By the way, somebody on Twitter got really mad at me for continually saying that you're from your mom's cork Addy,

But it wasn't that. They were mad at the mom's cork attic park. They're like, why do you have to keep saying where he's from? I was like, oh, I'm sorry about that. I didn't know you're really upset. I mean, I mean, it is it's it's it's a bit much. But you know, I said, no, it's not. We say we're from the d Why is it any different? Okay, you know what, You're right. Thank you. By the way, that's Todd's way of saying, I don't think you're right,

but actually I am right. Thanks Todd. Gentleman. James Salinas, he's got a real job, Dodd. Stop talking. James Salinas, everybody co host of it now? What is the name of your show on the Weekend's James James a former Super Contest winner. He won over nine hundred thousand dollars taking home the Super Contest prize. Then he had the audacity to finish third the following year. Let he finished twenty six two years after that. What's the name of

the new show, James, A great to have you. It is the Pro Football Blitz and I do it with Brady Cannon, another former Super Contest winner from back in the day. And so we're we do both Saturday and Sunday. And obviously it's just like it sounds pro football. That's it. That's the whole focus. We narrow the focus. We know we got so many other sports going on right now. And you know, you guys were talking about where we

were for Monday Night football. Should they have went forward on fourth down with the Buffalo bills, and I've am right they should have done, especially with the leverage that I had on the bills, just to win on the money. And so but we're not we're moving past week six because weeks Week six was a shitty week for me last week, and now I'm also have to move past We're not talking baseball here right because we don't want to get otherwise I'm gonna get a little salty kill

I have, but it this way. I was on the Red Sox unders the last two games, so we say how those played out. And then unfortunately I was very sober yesterday and didn't decide to go chase, and so I didn't chase a couple of winners that would have had late last night. So anyhow, we've moved on. We're moving on to week seven for the NFL. So great

to be on with all you gentlemen. As always each and every year, fellas, We're really appreciative because I know you have a day job, very very important day job there in Colorado at Denver that you making time to do this, So I am super thankful. Um. Those unders. By the way, the last two games that series were brutal, just absolutely brutal. Especially the one you were in. I'm still getting over the Giants. So and now my Dodgers future from March looks very precarious. So it's the uh,

it's it's just not going well. James. Is it true that your co host on the Blitz actually legally changed his name to former Super Contest champion Brady Cannon? Because and every and every time I hear it, and every piece of Vista copy it says that. I mean, so I thought maybe it was illegal name change? Brady? What ye were you? James? Brady one? There was like seven other guys in it, and I mean it was James. And I feel bad that the the under in the in the Astros game that is as bad as they come.

Well and and and so I don't know how much our time constraints are here, but ultimately see that's the problem is. Yeah, it was leaning right up to and

I wanted to jump on the braves probably braves. I found him out here like plus one ninety plus one before it started, but they were kind of overlapping and I wanted to roll it over, like okay, maybe I'll just I'll be I'll the square, the sober square, betting conscious of Ward Cleaver came out like, new, we won't be chasing any bets, we won't have any of that, and so just wait and we'll see how it plays out. And then obviously they dumped it, and then they even

got more square. I was like, well, I'm not gonna chase it. No, did I chase that last night with the Braves? And then I didn't chase the Nuggets last night and the Revenge spot going into Phoenix and they win the freaking game, right, So we move on to week seven on Thursday. Yes, I did not know Ward Clever used to bet. I missed that episode. I just have that. Well, it's just this square better voice that comes in that just says, no, James, we won't be

chasing any bets this evening. You're just gonna play and you'll go on move on to the next day. Now. I'm telling you, I know you guys don't do it. I know you guys don't drink. But usually when I bet and I drink, that's when I get pretty froggy with it. And I'm not afraid to get jiggy and the fire away at it. And I was very sober last night, and so I did not do. I did not chase anything, and now I wish that I would have because they both came in and think about how

the Braves just completely dominated that game. I don't know what the hell where the Dodgers are messing with their pitching staff, and I don't want to. I don't want to get off on a tangent here where we're moving to now be if you don't want to make square bets, Mike, you like I got, I got it possibly lucky in that game last night, I bet over nine and a half flo and after two winnings of Framber Valdez, I said, this is a loser. Let me bet first five under

three and a half. We got there both. Well, I mean I've written the nine and a half of her. You know, I'm just trying to get off the bet. You you bet the Braves already bet the Braves plus one thirty and I haven't for the series plus one ninety. Normally I wouldn't bet them because I'm piling onto my bet, but I think this numbers. I think the Braves should

be favored today. No no Turner, no Muncy, no Turner, no month getting overused and misused bullpen What do you and and this is the point needs to be made. This is not armchair quarterbacking with Davy Roberts. This is at the moment you're like, what are you doing? As far back as Game five against the Giants, I said in Game five, why are you hitting for Jensen? Let Jensen close this game? You'd only thrown eleven pitches. If you go down with your clothes, you go down with them.

Screwed up shuts or for Game two now he needs extra rest. Screwed up Game two with your and screwed up game it up. Game four with Orius, Mark Borcherd had the best line. If you're going to be the Tampa Bay Rays, be the Tampa Bay Rays all season, don't show up in the postseason and become the Tampa Bay Race. Why why did they decide to play it this way? It was so dumb. You know our guys, Josh Towers has banged this drum for years. You don't make a starter reliever. It's totally out of his prep

of what he's doing to go in and relieve. You can't just flip flop him all right, circumillions, there's a guy that's twenty six and four in the circumedions. I think if this Todd, if you went one and four the first week and you were perfect the next five weeks, you'd be tied. And here's the other thing. The guy is twenty six and four. You only has a one game lead. He's a one game leader. I'm Ted seven and one and I have a game and a half. Leat on, Todd, I've got more air than this count.

Let me ask you guys a question. And I'm talking to super content winner and James Lenis when I say this, so I better be careful how I say this. This year in particular, though, but NFL in general, the size of the pool of players is going to mathematically randomly produce someone who does that. Right now, That's not to take anything away from the guy who did it, because he said, and they go, well, it's me, it's me, I'm doing it. But come on and four, like, what

percentage of that is skill? And what is just a squirrel? Fine? And nut after nut, there's a school people are out there saying, faith this guy the rest of the way because it's got to regret Scot to right. Good for him, though, you know he's probably gonna regress to fifty fifty, that's what will happen. But the somebody has to get lucky. Gil.

So this guy, so, this guy is going to be the one who you know, I mean he might he might be playing at a rate you know, in basic but still you know, obviously he's not gonna be twenty six and four in the next thirty picks. I'll take the actor on that. How about how well? And and here's the other thing Gil and fellas with this is so I think about the year I won the Super Contest. I was twenty four five and one after week six,

so same spot here, obviously not quite as good. But then the gravity of where you stand after you weeks, like all the dust is settled. You look at the standings, you're like when you when you enter the contests. Yeah, there's two thousand people in it. I'll take a shot,

see where it happens. Why not me? And realistically, you've you have expectations, but you also have realistic expectations like it's hard as hell to try to beat the NFL and then win a big contest like this, and then all of a sudden, after six weeks, you're sitting at the top of the standards. You look at the top. It's like, damn, I am up there, sweet, and then it's like, holy crap, I still got eleven more weeks to play. And in this case, here what we got

twelve more weeks to play? Right a long way and so then the gravity starts to hit you where you stand exactly right, and so you have and for me, I was able to sustain, sustain, sustain, each and every week, but it didn't keep the hard and it's right, what was the rest of your I finished? I finished fifth? I finished? It was like fifty nine some three and five. I don't know, does that? Does that math work? Whatever that was? You were probably around the way or something

like that. Maybe maybe something like that. Yeah, and yeah, I wasn't gonna continue on that same pace for the next twelve eight eleven weeks. But it's just the mental piece to it, because it's such a long season, and then all of a sudden you're like, why not me? When you enter the contest and now I was at your top of the the top dog on the contest

after six weeks. It's a lot of pressure each other week that at least you start to put on yourself knowing you have a bad week, and there's so many it's so condensed, right, It's the compression is so close. You talked about Mike said, how close. Everybody else is right there. And because the field is so huge, you have a bad week, you're gonna see yourself tumble. So it's a lot of pressure before Sunday comes making the picks, and you've got to be very decisive. You can't doubt

yourself going forward. Let me just ask you one question, though, So at what point, because you had not one great season, but you had two, maybe even three great seasons, like when you have that kind of run, And maybe this is a question for now more than then, but I was going to couch it as a then question, like at what point do you acknowledge you're getting the good bounces in addition to good handicapping or now maybe even more more more interesting Lee, as you look back on

that run because you can't sustain it forever, what do you think of now? Like what if it was you? What if it was just of that middle games that just they all went your way? Like how do you view it now? I think each the first two seasons when it was first and third were different. First season not having any expectations getting in when I wanted was the first year that I played, and then being on top all right, just focus one week at a time

and then reflecting back. It was really what I was doing. I didn't take a lot of really didn't take a lot of typically don't take a lot of favorites, but I wasn't taking those big underdogs. I was finding those numbers that were anywhere between pick them and three, just to let me just find the winner. And any of those that I was taking three, where was the favorite

of the underdog? They recovering? And that was really the big difference for me is all those games that were kind of coin flip games, they were land if I'm calling tales, they're landing tails each week. Those were coming through. I think in the second year. It was really the interesting thing Gill is each and every year, my worst month is always October. I don't know what the hell it is about October, but these lines get sharper, and then we saw last week the favorites just killed it.

But then things start to regress stores and they come back to the mean come November, and where you were in October and teams were in September and October, a lot of them fade back, and you see that happen with contestants in the Super Contest tour and then circum millions.

Now that this third year going, so I think for me, it was different in that second year in the Super Contest when I came in third, it was all about the second half of the season really getting dialed in on teams and whether it was favorites underdogs, it didn't really matter. It wasn't numbers. I was playing teams as opposed to numbers in the second half of the season and went on a great run to be in that spot. So it's kind of different each and every year when

I've had good success. All right, well I have invited you in October, so maybe that was the uh, what's with October and people associated with Denver that's so big? Yeah, all right? And then and then Survivor well, so once again the No Pick was second instead of third. This week amazing nineteen Broncos ten, No Pick, seven, Dolphin, four Brown, two Lion, only one points and to build only one percent of the two percent of the pool out we lost forty four going from twenty four, I said, make

a number. Yes, know that the no pick will be the most eliminations this week? Oh wow, this week. No, this week it's gonna be you'd get a lot of plus money for this way, because there's this week it's splintered. I think. So, somebody, do you think one of these big favorites will lose? There's six games that about the biggest favorites, but somebody's gonna lose. Um. We had a Joe Pete and I had a little exchange off air,

and we'll get to our picksure. Joe Peter and I had to exchange how many people do you think will be how many entrance do you think will be left and survivor after week twenty week twenty of your contest. He had a buddy he said two hundred and something. He had a buddy who said one hundred and not even on I said nineties six. I think there's gonna be a lot of eliminations coming um Thanksgiving and Christmas

with um and a half. Well, there's three times as many interests thirty five last year, right, I mean I'll take under. I'll take under both of you. I say under because of that Thanksgiving in Christmas, he's going to really hurt. Yeah, so I'm going under nineties. So you know you're saying there's gonna be ninety six winners at the end of this year. I went below the other two guesses. Yeah, I said nineties. I'm going under even one can make a real bed. Let's make a real hunt.

Remember making a prices right reference, Not that you know you're a small bat. All right? Uh, Todd, As much as I hate to ask you to go through it, how do we do last week? Well, the records they didn't They're not exactly tennis. Let's put it that way. Let's set it that way. It's not tennis. It's not tennis.

Andrew Siva Ventra No Nova did not cover. Uh. I am making a reference to the fact that Gilly Ice continues to be red hot with the tennis picks, and uh not as hot here in the National Football League.

He went oh in three last week to fall to five and thirteen against the spread, but his teasers are still at four, one and one after he finally lost his first teaser last week, Mikey with a strong two and one with the luckiest cover in the history of the National Football League when the Dallas cow Girls decided to throw it deep and he got him the minus three and a half, which he certainly did not deserve.

He goes to ten seven and one, but he is four and two in teasers, which is the important category. I am was two in one last week, including beating eight straight up on that over forty nine and a half in the Cleveland, Arizona game to go to nine and nine, and I am still the leader even after I lost my teaser at five and one on teasers. So that's where we are. Gilly Ice about to turn it around because he's gonna take the Kansas City Andrew Nova's this week. How do you have what my magic

number over guilt is? Right now? By the way, I'll still say it. I'll say it again. There is no question I'm the man to beat on teasers, none whatsoever. Well, look now, I just made up a game on Todd to teaser since I got to go last, and he doesn't have to copy my pick every week. Tod's not The guys just loves it. There you go. You can get the guy a popcorn. You'll be like, oh it's not big, big one, you know. You get him of

glass of wine. I don't like this line. There's always some problem, alright, Best bets, Best bets time now now, James, Not only have I invited you in October, which you said, for some reason is your worst month historically. You know, I don't know if there's any any basis for that, but I've invited you on week seven. I did not look ahead when I invited you a week seven and say, hey, is week seven a fun week? It is not a fun Week six buys only thirteen games, and of the

thirteen game you have one tonight Thursday Night Football. By the way, before we get to our best bets, we should talk about Thursday Night Thursday Night, where there's all kinds of Michigus on the brown side in terms of injuries, so that game is all also for COCTA. And then you have the other remaining twelve games, three which are massive double digits, one that's teetering on double digits to others that are around a touchdown. So that leaves six

games that really have shorter spread. So it's a it's a rough week man. Well, Thursday Night Football thoughts before we get the best bets, James, do you have any play on tonight's game? No, Baker Mayfield, no Nick Chubb, uh, No Kareem Hunt, no Odell Beckham Jr. It appears Jarvis Landry will play in that Jedrick Wills will play, but we don't know about Jadeveon Clowney and others either. So the Browns are Bridgewater is playing well and no. So I don't have a play on this. I typically try to.

We already know Thursdays are kind of quirky, and I don't play them in any of the contest for sureks I don't want to put an all five plays on Thursday. But also I rarely played these Thursday games a lot of time. If I'm gonna play, it's end game. But you're talking about you talked about all the injuries to the Cleveland side, Well, Denver, I mean they're down to seats and stems at the linebacker position, and we know that the strength of the Browns is gonna be running

the football. Denver Broncos have eight linebackers on injured reserve, including all four starters. That's where Vic Fangio, That's where his defense starts. He doesn't start up front and move back. He starts on the back end. Those back seven and It starts at the linebacker position. This is not the Dome Patrol going into this game for the Denver Broncos, and I think that's gonna be the struggle here is at least you know what the identity of the Cleveland

Browns are. Regardless of where they're banged up on the line of scrimmage with the offensive line and who's gonna be running the football for Cleveland, They're gonna be able to attack in between the hashes against the Denver Broncos based on all the injuries that they have at the linebacker spot. And I think that's where you can attack him running the football. You can also attack him in the middle of the ball throwing the football. It is case Keenum out there. So in a sense, we've got

two backup quarterbacks. I mean, that's ultimately what Teddy Bridgewater is for the Denver Broncos. He's a journeyman banging around as a backup for the last handful of years since his injury in Minnesota. If anything, I'd probably be leaning towards the Browns playing at home. I think for Denver

right now, I think there's disconnect within that franchise. We didn't see any leadership out of that team last week, nor on from the sideline or on the field for the Denver Broncos playing against talking about it that where the heads were for the Raiders are clearly the better team, The more focused team was the was the Las Vegas Raiders coming into Mile High. Then the Broncos take the day off, you have a short week. They didn't practice

on Monday, so no practice going into this game. I just think that this this team right now is aside from the first three games we saw, it was a really soft schedule for the Denver Broncos. They've had to play some They've actually had to play some teams the last three weeks and got it handed to them, two of which were at home. I don't like the spot for the Broncos going on road in this spot. That line has been teetering. I see it now a lot of one and a half short number in favor of

the Browns. Probably just if I get involved, fellas would be in game. But right now, my initial lean, even though they're beat up, would be the Cleveland Browns at home. Yeah, Broncos played the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets to start the season three and oh then they played Baltimore Pittsburgh in Las Vegas three and three, Mikey or Todd any any

plays on tonight's game total at forty one. By the way, Todd DoD, I mean, if there was ever a game that was ripe for end game, which I think should be done in all games, this is the game, of course, because what you're gonna see is if Keith Keenham turns around,

hands the ball or whoever's the running back. Remember, Cleveland Brown's offensive line is just blasting open holes and if they can run the football, and you see that early, then I say you got to take the Browns because at that point you'll know that the Browns can move the ball at least on the ground. And who knows

what's going to be with the Broncos. So I have absolutely no uh pre game play, but this is certainly a game you can get involved with in game if you if you see what's happening with all the you know, with all the differences that are gonna be on the field today, Mikey, Mike, I debate using this game um as one of my three best bets really well, yes, because I don't think that I think the line has overmoved here. I still think two and a half or three is the right line, not one and a half

of them. Although I lowered them after that that disjointed performance at home against Arizona. They look very undisciplined. Look, I think the biggest thing that that's hurt them so far as Landry being out, Actually he's and he's back, and this becomes a you know, a teaser lake for the Broncos to go through the three and the seven now. But I'm not I'm gonna I'm gonna take down. I'm gonna let me lay the one. Let me lay the one year. Give me a Kevin Sumlin quarterback, all right,

get me case Keenom. The last time I looked, he was leading the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC Championship game and going right down the field to go up seven nothing on the Eagles. You have the coach, you have to you have to say you have the coach edge, because I'd much rather have the Browns coach than Vic Fangio.

So you have to have coaching edge, Mike. He's referring to case Keendom's on the evable twenty seventeen season for the Vikings that the Vikings are still trying to chase the author of the Minnesota miracle in the playoffs to Stefon digs against the Saints. But since then he had he had a year with Denver where he was pretty good through for actually through from more yards that year than he did with Minnesota. In twenty nineteen, he played

eight games, started eight games for Washington. They went one in seven. He was I Since then he has thrown a grand total love thirteen passes. So three years, no, well, actually two years thirteen passes. This is my number three. Play put that down for my number number. There's things on the Twitter and the Facebook. They tracked on our right, All right, James the number one best bet sir, either side or total? What he got? I think the best bet for me on the board is gonna be, well,

I don't know. We're picking three, right, so I think a flat bet all three and not choose one over the other. As far as the best bet out of the three. Let's go to the Let's go to the a f C North and let's talk about this big matchup with the Bengals going on the road. Catching six and a half against the Baltimore Ravens, now Baltimore. Is there a more galvinized team right now? Is there a team that's had to deal with more injuries prior to the season coming in, we knew all the injuries that

hit the running back position. The offensive line took a to I mean, I don't even know who's left on the offensive line. We know Staley has done for the year, really didn't play much. The center went down. I know they had another guy go down against the Colts on that Monday night, So they're really beat up at the line of scrimmage. But I think the thing for the Ravens is those kind of things have motivated them each

and every week. With all the injuries and everybody casting stones, this team is not gonna be They're gonna be regression for the bal Baltimore Ravens going into this season, and then all the injuries piled up on top of it, and they continue to pile up. Yet they play high level game after high level game, high intensity game, crazy comebacks.

We saw that a few weeks back against Detroit and Justin Tucker, who's the best weapon on that team, really uh for best kicker and probably best kicker in the history of the NFL. Being able to knock in that sixty six yarder. Like each and every week they're playing these high level, high intensity games. Same thing. Last week, all the talking is about the Chargers rolling in there and we're gonna beat the Ravens, and there now the charge of the new contender in the a f C. Now,

all of a sudden, the Ravens are. They don't have that chip on their shoulder to play here to say we are the we're the underdog going and nobody gives us the shot here. This is where I think this is the gravity of the the thinking about the energy and the emotion expended each and every week for this Ravens team. I think it kind of catches up here.

Not that I'm saying that they're gonna lose this game out right, but the Bengals coming in I was kind of impressed, not with the performance and not beating the Detroit Lions on the road, but I thought that was the perfect sandwich spot right there for the Cincinnati Bengals. Think about the week before, huge huge hype around the Bengals playing at home against Aaron Rodgers, rolling in the Green Bay Packers, crazy game, wild game, Wild finished terrible

kicking for both sides. We should just a live and eight football kickers. We should just eliminate place kickers from the NFL entirely, let him play four downs like we did playing pee wee football here. I think now for the Bengals rolling in, they were able to keep their focus coming in. It was a total sandwich spot. You know, you have a big game against the a f C North leading Baltimore Evans who handled you last year. They kicked your ass last year. Sixty five to six in

those two games was the collective score. I think you might see a little, uh, the Ravens being a little overconfident in this situation. They have the bye week on deck next week as well. You know, they're really banged up, a lot of wounds to be licked, and I think they're gonna come in a little a little overconfident in this spot. I like the Bengals catching the six and

a half points. I was pretty impressed with just their mental focus last week and go in and handle business the way that they did in Detroit in lieu of this game on deck here, it's an earlier start here. Not as much hype around this game, definitely not as much hype for the Ravens, a little fat and happy Baltimore rolling in this spot. I'll take the Bengals plus six and a half. It's my number three too, Bang was plus six and a half. Just I think says

that we did the power rankings. Uh, Matt Brown, Kelly Bilin and I did it on prime time actution, Jeff Parlay and I did it on a numbers game. By the way, all four of us independently came up with the same ten teams reshuffled as our top ten, so that the notion that four of us matched on ten teams reshuffled or not, it is pretty unbelievable. Actually, I agree with you, because I think there's five teams in each conference, I could win the conference right after that.

It's a pretty precipitous drop. But Cincinnati did end up being my eleven team. Uh so that's the one where it starts to fall. But I like the Kansas City Chiefs was ten. Oh you want the whole ten? No? No, I was curious as who the who made the where the nine, ten, eleven, twelve line was, Yeah, there's a cliff is so Chiefs ten, Bengals eleven? And then I think it was Raiders twelve or something. Basically the cliff after that after eleven is pretty precipitous. Raiders, Panthers, Saints.

I mean, that's the ilk of teams you get to at that point. Who was your ninth Cowboys are the charge? Oh no, no, neither ninth was. I had Baltimore out of the top ten. There my ninth. Now Cleveland left the top ten. How are you having the Cowboys? Six? Six? Um? So I'm with James. I think the Bengals have a really sneaky good defense. I think Jamore, I think the Borrow Jamore Chase thing is is really awesome. It's a solid offense. And I'm not I'm like I said, I

have Baltimore nine. I'm not this massive believer in them yet six and hals a lot of points. I'm taking the Bengals. That's my three though, Mikey, your next number one, Well, no, Mike, you already has a pick. I have done zero. Okay, go ahead, you're to get I have to give my number two right now because it's the same game they have. Okay, there you go. It's the under in this game. You know, why don't you just give you and then and then and then I go last in the in and teaser.

I like the under forty seven here. Odd remember this game last year was twenty seven nothing. I think, James, you referenced the composite square that games and in the fourth quarter that they kept mixing in there, just kept slamming, mixing into the line, running, mixing over and over with the running clock down twenty seven. I don't know if they kicked the field or whatever on the end, but they like they were trying to get a score, but they weren't gonna let Burrow get hit anymore. They just

kept killing this kid. It was like he got killed in Chicago and Soldier Field and in week two, I think I like the Cincinnati defense though. Yeah and a half and a half or forty seven, it's forty seven. I'm just telling you right now, I don't care what your baiting game board says you have. What do you have more more of six and a halfs or forty seven? I'm just looking at the certain games. You know what this is more? Well, I have four, I have forty six out here, so we'll go. Let's go with I mean,

I think we should go with the circle lines. He's right there isn't Mike Mike garantew in front of the board right there, we just go off the live line and circuit. Well, no, I don't want to go off the live line by by a circus the worst forty five and a half here, all right, I'll give you forty six and a half time. But anyhow, I think both these teams are Look, you have to be impressed by the fact that the Ravens totally shutdown Mike Williams

last week. Look, Martindale said, you're not gonna beat us over the top. You're gonna have to drive the ball. You're gonna have to take ten place, twelve place, four team play, and the Chargers couldn't sustain the drives. They were the first team that really foiled the Church. Remember the Cowboys. It was penalties, false starts, turnovers that stopped the charges, not the defense. The Ravens defensive. I think this is a good defensive matchup. I think this game

is in the thirties. Actually, so that's my second place under forty six and a half. Yeah, we don't want those people will say, oh, it's affirmative action for mediocre radio guys. We don't want to Christians ufermative action for the Christians Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore held the Chargers to season low's last week in points, passing yards, and rushing yards six points a hundred an two passing yards

twenty six rushing yards. Um. Just a comprehensive win. People aren to make a lot about those Brandon Stailey fourth downs that he went for in risky fashion, but those only resulted in six Baltimore points. That was a comprehensive win for the Ravens. As far as the Bengals, four wins and as many is as many wins as they had all of the last season. Zach Taylor had six wins in four years. Now he has four wins in six weeks. Why don't you give a couple of picks,

Give a couple of Todd Snaked, give a cup? Why not? Why not? Um? Okay, I'm gonna go with my first pick being the Arizona Houston game. I'd like to take it under forty seven and a half. Um. If you look at the score of the Houston football team scored, take out the Tyrod Taylor game. Because with Tyrod Taylor, they were actually not bad. Um, we actually won with them early on in the season against Jacksonville and covered

that Cleveland game as well. But since then, they've scored nine points at home against Carolina, they scored a grand total of zero point zero at the Buffalo Bills, and a game they were down forty nothing, which means they didn't even get backdoor touchdowns when they were down a million. In the New England game they got twenty two. Lost twenty five to twenty two. Okay, you know, I'll give him credit for that. And then last week at Indianapolis they lose thirty one to three, a grand total of

three points on the road. Now, Arizona defensively, to me, has been playing well. I was really impressed with how they played last week again on the road at Cleveland, made a whole bunch of turnovers, played very well defensively, played very well defensively the week before against San Francisco, only giving up ten points. The week before that, they only gave up the Rams twenty and one of those was a backdoor touchdown to Stafford, who used to be

a backdoor touchdown machine in Detroit. So they've been playing very well defensively. Really. The only game they didn't play well defensively was the Minnesota game where they gave up thirty three. Other than that, they gave up only thirteen on the road at Tennessee. This Arizona defense is pretty decent in my opinion. So I don't see how Houston's getting more than ten points this week. So if Houston gets ten and Arizona gets thirty seven, Mike, according to

my math, that's forty seven and a half under. So I'll take under forty seven and a half with a final score of Arizona winning at thirty seven to ten. Gil Am I doing anything wrong here? Or is this correct? Uh? That sounds sounds Southern math sounds correct. Arizona has scored thirty plus points in five of six games this season. Um, just you know, sighting facts here, what has happened? And then they pulled the plug in those games if you notice they were they were up thirty eight thirteen going

to the fourth quarter. The final score was thirteen in that game. In the Rams game, they got the thirty seven and pulled the plug as well. And they you know, I'm not worried about that. They'll just run it and will say this about Houston last week and defeat against the Colts for those of us who have the Colts and survivor and lost on Houston plus the point, so

I was playing in both sides there. That game was really close early in the third quarter, was ten to three, and then the Davis Mills picked at Darius Leonard made it seventeen to three. The Colts had the one big Jonathan Taylor run that led to it being seventeen to three. I guess what I'm saying is, um, that the interception really changed that game and that I could see you

getting torpedoed by that more than anything. Right, if Davis Mills but offense, but their offense wasn't playing good, their defense was playing good. Right, But what I'm saying, you got you took the under in this game, right under. Yes, So what I'm saying is if Davis Mills has another terrible pick in their own territory, that kind of thing, that's how it's happening. Okay, now, what's another one? Top? Okay,

I'll give you another one. My My next one is going to be another under under forty seven and a half again, this time with the Miami Dolls. Miami Dolphins. This team's offense thinks so bad you can't smell. You gotta watch the game with the smell turned down because it smells so bad. They're the worst offensive team I've ever seen. Watching the guests react to it, James is just like, I can't leave this guy, James. I haven't

signed that. I haven't golphin song in four weeks, and they complain on Twitter that I don't sing the song. So I had to give it to them this week because I was in the Miami game. Miami under forty seven and a half against Atlanta. I am not impressed with Matt Ryan and his five yard check checkdown throws. Uh. They take a long time moving the ball down the field, Miami. Do we really need to talk about what Miami does offensively because it's not good. I don't care who the

quarterback is. I don't care if it's two A Tagavaloa or whoever else they decided to play a quarterback. I'm not impressed. I watched the Jacksonville game. I was up nice and bright and early to watch the live from London. I didn't see anything. Yeah, East Coast nine thirty. I was up bright and early. I was up till two o'clock in the morning watching West Coast college football. Where are you, Gilly? That's only six hours later we wake up at six thirty to watch it here. That's all

I'm saying. It's anyways. My point is the Atlanta Falcons don't don't impress me that much on offense. Miami Dolphins certainly don't impressed me much on offense. So if I'm going to get a number like forty seven and a half in a game like this, give me the under forty seven and a half. I think you know, Miami's defense is better than their offense too, so you know, just get me more under. I don't mind the tune, but he's no Alan Lerner was a Learner again Learner

and Low the lyrics system the Learner and Low. He wrote the lyrics to Low's music. Oh you didn't like my my lyrics that I came up with on the flight, he said, smell like eight times the right A little. I was a little overly, Uh, but I do. He's on the fly, Mike, he said, it's very difficent, just like the picks by the way, doing the Power rankings. He just got it. He got it to be late.

I like the doing the Power rankings. So Texans ended up thirty two, and then you know some mix of Jacksonville and the Giants and the Jets and all these facata teams. If I may say that word again, but that the most surprising team from a preseason standpoint in that bottom group is the Dolphins, Like they are just awful, so bad, and urban Mire did everything in his power to lose that game, and the Dolphins still couldn't take

it from him. Brian flora Is, who I used to really like me here, has really late a gigantic I am shocked with how poorly this guy's coach. You remember, earlier in the season, I was like, look at Brian floor Is doing it with mirrors last year, and now all of a sudden, it's just like real garbage. The thing about smoking mirrors. Are there smoking mirrors? That's the thing,

James E. What's number two for you? Number two? We're gonna, uh, We're We're going back to that Arizona Cardinal game in the Texans, and I'm gonna go with the I'm taking the seventeen. I'm playing the number here and I'm playing the spot. This isn't about the team. We will give you seventeen and a half because it's about five places that are seventeen and a half. If i'll if we get the hook on it, I'll take the hook on it. So thinking about I just playing the playing the number

for one. Obviously it's the NFL, and I know the Texans have been huge dogs going in these games that they can't score. Just like you said, to the offense under David Mills, they're struggling that not running the foot. It's just the complete the Bugeye. We knew it was

going to be that for the Texans. The Texans, I think outside of Week one where they handed it to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a road favorite in Week one, I think the Texans have lived up to all the low expectations coming into this season and and we knew it was gonna be a bad season for them, not only from the coaching perspective, all the stuff going on with Deshaun Watson off the field, and then just the depleted roster that really and just sort of such a

short time that O'Brien just completely uh just decimated that roster. But thinking here with I just look at the scheduling spot for the Arizona Cardinals. Now, the first six weeks of the they're they're the only undefeated team in the league. We know that. And the first six weeks competing each and every week obviously to be six and oh but four. Those four of those six games were on the road,

so there's been a lot of travel. We know, all the rolling in to what to Cleveland last week, the COVID situation going on with the coaching staff, some of the injuries that they had going into that role. Everybody, well at least a lot of folks loved leveland in that spot, and that was where the underdog role is for the Cardinals. Again, I think these are teams that find a way to find motivation to put a chip

on their shoulder. Nobody thinks we can win. Let's go into Cleveland and put a looking on him, and obviously they did. Now they're gonna come back home play one of the worst teams in the NFL, and what's looming on deck. This is the ultimate sandwich spot here where you've got the Green Bay Packers coming in on a short week on Thursday. So it's a tight week for the Arizona Cardinals. You're playing a bad football team to where you. This is one of those games where you

just let's just do it. Let's get through it, let's stay healthy, and let's compete, keep playing for that number one seed in the NFC. Let's make ourselves now that not only the Cardinals made themselves a contender in the NFC West, they've actually made themselves a contender for the NFC and continue to move on. You got a big game with green Bay looming on that short week here. I just don't see the energy, the intensity in this game, in this matchup for the Arizona Cardinals to come out

and be ready to be fired up. They just got to get through this game as healthy as they can and take on the Green Bay Packers come Thursday night. So I love the scheduling spot here. That's what I'm playing. I'm playing the number, so of Todd, you're gonna give me seventeen and a half, love it. I'll take the hook playing the number and I'm playing against the scheduling spot here for the Arizona Cardinals. So make mine the

Houston Texans plus seventeen and a half. I'm gonna have to go before James on my on my first pick because I like if you're giving me seventeen and a half. I'm taking the Texans too, and I'll go back to what everything you said, James, the scheduling spot. Uh, the Texans, they've really only gotten Yes, they are the worst team in football, a power ranked thirty two. They've really only gotten blown out legit once by the Buffalo Bills last

two weeks. Again, two weeks ago there should have beaten the New England Patriots, Patriots miraculously one for all survivor players. But this past week thirty one to three on the scoreboard. But again that's a that was ten to three after halftime at Indianapolis in Indianapolis. I mean that was a must win. If we don't win this game, our season is done. Kind of win for Indianapolis on their home field.

And the Texans hung until he threw that bad pick Darius Leonard, until they gave up that one play that game got out of hand. But it was really a much closer ball game than that. The other the games before that Buffalo blow out. We're pretty competitive too, So seventeen and a half, it's just in order to get back into this little contest of ours. Every time a seventeen and a half appears on an NFL slate, it's almost incumbent upon me to take it. You have to

take it. You have to take it. And I'm taking the Texans. By the way, the Texans are gonna cover six or seven games at the end of the year. The NFL teams are gonna very almost all of them are gonna get near eight or nine covers. So you gotta come up with some covers. Here's the one to cover. There's one to cover. Uh, Mikey your second. I've already given two. You have, all right? Can I give? Can I give my a third? One? There to give? You to give your third? Yeah, let me give by which

is my first? I am actually gonna roll and I this is my uh go against a potential survivor pick play. Um, I'm gonna take the New England Patriots and uh and lay the points. This one is actually four for a potential survivor play. And I say this somewhat precariously because the Jets have extra rest here. They're one in four coming off a bye week. The Patriots and the most heartbreaking of fashion, lose to the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Should never have lost that game. Dallas though there is a case to be made that Dallas could have blown him off the field. Dallas ended up with three points on three first and goal situations, with three red zone situations I should say, I should say in the first half of that game, So there is a there's a case to be made that New England could have gotten blown off the field. You know, how was he not in on third? His whole his whole body is over

the Dak Preston. But why didn't they review that? Because it was just happening too fast? Is that what happened? I don't know who has to do? It was under two minutes. Why didn't they failed? But they needed to review DJ metcalf to see if he caught it. DK metca But the d K mccalf, I was picking up tennis money. I was in the casino walking and watching and looking at the screens, so I didn't have audio,

but I'm watching he was phenomenal. So the the what a match, by the way, the the so that that Seahawks review was on a screen, I didn't have a benefit of audio. So the whole time I'm thinking they're reviewing, did the spike happen before the gun or whatever they'd use now to end the game. At no point without the benefit of audio, did I think to myself, Oh, they're reviewing the catch? What what were the reviewers? Were not a bounds? Why is he running down the field?

He thought he was going to crash in and get a couple more yards and then be knocked out. But he didn't eat any more yards, just jump out of bounds. He was Channon Sharp agrees with you, Todd. Did you see that Twitter battle? It made? It made no hyper ball metcalf decision to stay in bounce. Yes. By the way, Gil, have you ever heard no Hyperball? It's a mediocre radio show host steals a segment from a great guest and comes up with his own thing and never ever attributes

it to that great guest. Shocker for a Christian who believes eaves in treating others nicely. Grievances, grievances, grievances, grievances

with Todd's olds. By the way I asked to I just want to explain to the audience because we're too much inside those who don't there's there's a huge portion of this podcast audience that doesn't listen to Visa Grievances was a segment that the Great Todd Wishnev once did on a numbers game My show on Visa Wish Wednesday WISH Wednesdays, and then Mike Palm alleged by Todd Wishnev I think maybe I can agreed with the with the allegation, uh took his segment, renamed it, repackaged it as as

something called and I still don't understand the name no hyperbole and we as as as members of the tribe, call it goyam grievances. You had like a David Letterman cadence there as you were just you were. I'm not really a member of the tribe. I'm a renounced member. But still the point still is the point. You know what, Pa, and you know what Hashem just did he froze your screen because of that blasphemy right there? But can you hear me? Still? I want to ask Todd, but why

was tom one so upset? Why the ball with two seconds? Why is he upset? They reviewed and make him spike it again? I had absolutely no idea, But by that point I had eaten so much and not and I want you to know because remember I went over two years without eating any delicious thing, any kind of carbohydrate, any bagel, and any chips, and he pizza, any anything, and he tater talks. I've actually slipped over the last month or so and eaten some horrible stuff, and that's

why I'm in Disasterville area. But I had some nachos at the game and was delicious. Anyway, it's Belichick against Salah, and I'm taking Belichick of the Patriots. I think after that loss, they recognize if this season is going to be anything, they must beat the New York Jets. The spread is seven. I'm willing to lay the points. They crushed him the first time they played this year, but there's the first rematch of any game this year between two teams. I think, uh, I trust Belichick to duplicate

that more than I do solid to overcome. This may be a controversial statement, but I think the Patriots are clearly the survivor played this week. I think they're my survivors. I think they're clearly People said, well, but they're gonna play Jacksonville late. It might be a lot better by then two with Trevor Lawrence your way in. Yeah, they're the Mikey palm show. Uh goham grievances. No, but I think that I think that that's we'll get a survivor. But I think that's my play. I think it is

your number three. I'm gonna this is actually my number one. That was my number one. People will be surprised by this, but I'm gonna take the Chicago I am surprised by this. I'm not typically a big take a lot of points guy Bears. I'm just not impressed with the Stampa Bay defense now really now it fields because the secondary they don't have a secondary. Now maybe you can argue the Bears don't have the quarterback to take advantage, and would

argue that. You would argue, but this Bears defense is not bad. And I don't know. And look, Brady's got extra rest, right they played on Thursday night. I think the Bears are live to win this game. Well, I think that if the Bears are within the Bears are within a score at halftime, they're live to win this game. Now, they beat Tampa Bay last year. Remember on a Thursday night in Chicago. They made that when you know, right,

that was that game. But they made him look silly in that it's funny of the big favorites, and we're talking about Cardinals minus seventeen and a half, the Rams or what fifteen or whatever they are? Um and then this one, this is the one that actually feel more confident about the favorite at all. But you've seen my record, so you should agree to this. You shouldn't be so deterred. I won't go ahead to head with Todd, but I had faded with you this one. You can am I

getting here with you. I actually like your pick on Bears, and I like the Texans plus seventeen and a half. Two? What are you listening this? Twelve and a half? Todd? Half? James up for his third pick? James, what do you got? No? Three? Well, I've scratched my number three and I've changed my mind, and I'm going to roll with tonight's game. I'm gonna at the Cleveland Browns. Whatever number we're getting, one and a half, it's less than a field one. What made

you guys? Name the number as long as long as as long as it's less than three. Just thinking about it. And I've been thinking about where where Denver's head is. And this is more so the fact that we've talked about the linebackers. We know they're against season stems in the linebacker. I don't know who's gonna play. They're looking at Jefferson Park to try to pick up some players over there. That's where I used to play football when

I was a kid. It's two blocks north of Mile High Stadium, right there, and there there's no linebackers, and I just think of Dick Fangio. You know, we we talk a lot about these coaches in the NFL, and we have the changes in the guard and we've given a lot of at least, you know, not a lot of with with the analytics that have come into the game. We talked about Brandon Staley constantly going forward on fourth down? Are these the right moves? And when it works, you're

a genius. When it doesn't, you're you gotta go old school. Well, nobody's more old school in this in this league than Vic Fangio when it comes to preparation for one and the other pieces in game management and not the Stefanski is one of these new millennials taken over the NFL. But I love the identity of what the Cleveland Browns are. I know they're beat up in the in the backfield of running the football. But I just can't get bactive.

They way that they run the football, in the way that they take advantage of the middle of the field. That's where Denver's biggest weaknesses right now with all those linebackers being out and the fact that Denver, Where's where is this Broncos football team's head? The first three weeks didn't play anybody, but got a lot of high because they came and won those first three games. Are they contender in the a f C West, can they compete

with Kansas City Chargers, etcetera? And then we've seen the last three weeks, especially last week playing the Raiders, where a lot of question marks. Where were the Raiders heads coming into that game? While the Raiders were the focus team, not the Denver Broncos. The Denver I just don't think there's any leadership going on on the sideline right and well for the Denver Broncos nor on the field. And then offensively, Teddy Bridgewater, he just looks so frail back there.

He looks looks like he's just smaller and smaller over the course of the years, and now he's starting to curl up. You see this pass rush getting to him. The Raiders were all over him last week at there was four turnovers at a Teddy Bridgewater, three interceptions, and he put one ball on the ground. All of a sudden, that's gonna change, and you're gonna go on the road on a short week again into Cleveland tonight Thursday night

football game. Yes they're banged up, but their identity is still intact, and whether it's running the football or that play action against all these newfound linebackers with the Denver Broncos. I like Cleveland in this spot, even though they're beat up. Denver's beat up as well. I'll take the Brown's lane less than a field go at home. That's pick number three. Alright, you've given three monkeys to one. Okay, here's my last one.

I am going to go. I'm gonna go back to the well with a team that burned me last week. I'm going over in the Kansas City, Tennessee game. I know the number is ridiculously high. I know it's fifty seven and a half and that seems like a ridiculous college football total, not at pro football total. But I don't care, because have you seen these teams play defense? The Kansas City Chiefs. They could have scored even more

against Washington. They had in reception at the five yard line at one point, and I think there was another problem inside the ten But obviously the Chiefs are great on offense. Obviously the Tennessee Titans are horrendous defensively. We saw the Bills go up and down the field against Tennessee. We saw every team go up and down the field. Who hasn't gone up and down the field easily against Tennessee, No one. So we know Kansas City is gonna score

a whole bunch of points against Tennessee. And you know what, I like what the Tennessee offense is coming back into form from last year. Kansas City doesn't play any defense, and they're gonna stop Derrick Henry. Give me a break. This game is going over a college number fifty seven and a half because these teams are both the ultimate and overs. And I know they make it so high because they want you, They want you to say, oh my god, I can't go over fifty seven and a half.

It's too crazy, you know what I'm doing it anyways, give me over fifty seven and a half because these teams are the ultimate over, teams in the National Football League. That was gonna be my third pick if I didn't use the Yeah Browns tonight. Okay, so you're with me half okay, which brings us to teaser before sever Yes, and I go, I go, you go left until I take a clear lead over Todd that he can go last. Bro, I'm the dude debat. I hate to tell you under

Gilly I won. You have your little battle with Todd while I destroy That's fine, I'm sorry. What is your record? So we're so Todd has a half game lead over me and the teasers five, you have a half game lead over me? Yeah, what's that? I'm the defending champion on teasers I won last year, did you well? Yes? I mean you know what's that same about the sun

shining and a dog's behind? What is that? Okay? Alright, your teaser of the week, James, let us start with you to six point six point teaser of the week. Two teams, six point teaser. Let's go the first half with We'll take the as the City Chiefs and we'll drop it to basically a pickup, right or a plus a half whatever their four and a half? Okay, then give me the one and a half, I have five

and a half out here. That's the beauty. We got numbers all over the place, especially out of here in Colorado, we got twenty different operators. I could choose from four and a half probably up to six, but I'll put the Kansas City Chiefe. Kansas City Chiefs in that teaser talked about the defenses on both sides. Absolutely nobody can stop either side. But I think about the Titans here now apparently well I thought Taylor the one was on the Bills are on the Titans. Apar plates for the Bills.

But the fact that you don't have your left tackle there, I think that's that's crucial for that offensive line. We know Derrick Henry is going to be pounding the football again, but it is a short week and he had a great h hated get in front of Derrick Henry, just like most of defensive players in the National Football League. But I just don't think the Titans can match score

for score with the Kansas City Chiefs. And and I know this is not the Kansas City Chiefs offense where I think Mahomes has been making a lot of bad decisions because he feels like I have to make big plays because defensively, my guy, my our our guys are there are the unit can't get off the field. So it is on Mahomes to have to play hero ball week in and week out. But it's not just him. They got plenty of offensive weapons to play against here.

And thinking about the the hype and the energy that was expended on Monday Night Football for the Titans, especially the way that they got to close out and win that football game, I'll take the Kansas City Chiefs at a pick them or plus the one and a half in the teaser as the first leg here. I think Kansas City continues offensively where Mahomes they can even recover from a bad plays, and defensively, you can't get any

worse than where they're at right now. So I think they'll make enough plays defensively to hold the Tennessee Titans offense. I know the the there's the injury book too. I don't think Julio Jones is going to play this week for the Tennessee Titans. And then I looked at the injury report as well, A j Brown out with an illness. Anytime we see illness on these injury reports earlier in the week. Always pause for concern in this day and age of COVID. So I'll go with Casey dropping that

down to basically win the football game. And then the other side, I'm gonna take the home dog here. I'll take it up to ten. And what's our number on the Seahawks is a four and a half or five? Seattle Seahawks are getting four and a half. I have four and a half, So to move them through the I'll move them through the seven, eight, nine, and ten to get ten and a half at home with the Seahawks at home playing on Monday Night football against the

New Orleans Saints. Uh I. The Saints team is probably there's a number of teams that I've been struggling to figure out this year and put in New Orleans at one of the as one of those top teams. Such an up and down season each and every week, when you think they're gonna show up, like I thought they were gonna show up, and they're they're technically their home opener against the Giants because of everything that happened with

the hurricane rolling through there. They had their home opener so late in the season playing the Giants and played well for three quarters, couldn't finish up twenty one to ten lose to the Giants. And that's the only when the Giants have so far the season is winning that fourth quarter in overtime. I just don't know which team we're gonna get week in and week out from the New Orleans Saints. This just smells like a close game

of defensive game. I think we saw the Seattle Seahawks in the at halftime figure out, you know what, we probably don't want to put the ball in Geno smith hands constantly slinging the ball down the field like they did in that first half against Pittsburgh. Went back to the running game. And not that New Orleans has a bad defense here, but ten and a half points at home with Jamis Winston have to go and cover double digits on the road. I don't like their opportunity that.

I think it's a close game. It could be a field goal game. I kind of like the Seahawks plus the number, but I'll put them and go through that ten sitting at ten and a half the second leg of that, let's go with the Seahawks plus then and a half. Russell Wilson eligible return week ten at the earliest for the Seahawks. All Right, Todd By h by request you go first on the teasers. Okay, I'm gonna

go with the New England Patriots. I just saw the first game that the Patriots played against the Jets with uh with going against that rookie quarterback from b y U and Bill Belichick made his life miserable. I believe he threw four picks that game. I'm not positive he did, but I believe it was four interceptions that game. I

think the Pats are slowly getting better. They were competitive with the Alice last week, which was kind of a surprise to me at least uh And I think that the Jets are just they're just not ready to go on the road and beat the Patriots. So I don't want the Patriots minus the seven, but I will definitely take him as the first leg in my part in my UM two team teaser, Patriots minus one as the first team and the second team. I'm just gonna go with the old Green Bay Packers, the Green Bay Packers

minus the two because it's the Washington football team. And are they catching up with Taylor Heineke? What's going on here? I feel like this Washington team is really starting to hit the skids, and I just don't see them going into Green Bay and you know, keeping it close against green Bay. So if I can have green Bay minus two, um, you know, I'll take green Bay minus two with the Pats and I'll just take another teaser win. To me, it is the obvious teaser play of the week New England.

I already have him against the number. I'm teasing him down to basically just have to win and exactly the Green Bay Packers against my Washington football team, which honestly scored one touchdown last week against the Chiefs with yes, that's real bad. And by the way, they only touched that was because the Chiefs let to Washington receivers go clear past the defense. Taylor Honekey could have had his

choice of who to throw it too. So that was just one big gaff and Kansas City tried everything in their power in the first half to give that game to Washington. Washington couldn't take it from I think, uh, asking Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers to beat that defense by less than a field goal is not much of ask. It is New England and Green Bay for me as well. Same time. There it is. We all had it. What happened we had when you said green Bay. When you

said green Bay, we gasped. We thought your make you week to go do something similar he did with no hyper bolly and copy me with one in Green Bay minus two. All right, Survivor. So here's the deal. This, I think is the first week of Survivor. Here now in recent weeks where it's going to be much more splintered in terms of the distribution of picks. Here are

the bigger favorites on the board. New England against seven point favorites at home against the Jets at Baltimore, six and a half point favorites at home against in Senata, Green Bay eight and a half point favorites at home against Washington UH and then the big ones Rams fifteen at home against Detroit, Tampa twelve and a half at home against Chicago, Arizona seventeen and a half at home against Houston. For me, I have already used Green Band, Tampa Bay, so I throw those out. Arizona has a

Christmas consideration. I am saving them, I believe. For then either way I do not want to use them. Then for me it comes down to the Rams of the Ravens and the Bengals. I already have the Bengals against the spread. I don't entirely trust Baltimore in this situation. The Rams, I would like to say for later. So for me, it will be the New England Patriots. What did you use one on this ticket? Tampa Bay and then Green Bay week two? Okay, yeah, you're all over

the Patriots. This week, I'm all over the Patriots. Todd, you're no longer in survivor. Who would you have played? This was the week I was going to use Tampa Bay because I would have was saving him for this week, so I was going to use Tampa Bay. This you, Mikey, you agree with I agree that the I think the Patriots we'll actually get the most pis. I think, so we can't use if if more than fifty people use Arizone, I'll just do. They're not paying attention to the rules.

And if I get through this week, I think I'm gonna try to I'm gonna start to mute my survivor of thinking because now it's gonna get serious after this point. But that the reason that I'm talking also in New England is after having used Tampa Bay and Green Bay and my one remaining entry. For me, it's sort of a pot pourri of really mediocre teams after that, so that the entry is actually building itself pretty nicely. Caroline, the Carolinas in the Minnesota's of the world and the

Indianapolis is of the world, that kind of thing. So, uh, I'll probably go New England here, James. You don't play Survivor, do you? I do play Survivor. I'm so salty of the damn New Orleans Saints because half of my half of my uh, half of my Survivor picks went with New Orleans and that loss at home to the Giants that week. So I didn't. I didn't. I haven't made my Survivor pick. Usually I don't pick, you know, we're

talking about best best. Normally I don't make any plays in any decisions until we get through Friday night into Saturday.

But I mean, that's the challenge with Survivor now is because of not only with the Thanksgiving but also with the Christmas games on deck, and I can't use you know, maybe I thought about maybe using the Packers here, but thinking I might want to save the packers for later with thinking about where the Browns are right now and all those injuries, that was clearly do I want to play the Browns or the paper Packers on that Christmas night?

I probably want to stay away from that one. I gotta keep the Cardinals live for Christmas as well, so I can't play them this week. And I'm saying with you, Gill, I think with the Rams, there's plenty of other spots in the schedule for the Rams that I'd rather use.

Is it the Patriots this week for me? Or maybe it's Tampa Bay and it's either Tampa Bay this week, or it's gonna be Tampa Bay on Week eleven when they host the Giants on Monday Night Football, or even going into there's there's so many other spots with Tampa. I think I can't give it depended a pick right now. Gil Sary, gentlemen, I just I'm not there right now with Survivor because I think it is there's so many

factors in. I love all these little quick twerks that the you know, the tweaks that we have with having to keep teams alive. So I've got to do some more digging before I really actually I know there's there's some people who who think that, you know, it made the game, have too much luck involved in it. Okay, I understand that thinking. On the other hand, it's also kind of cool to have to suffer with that, you know. On the other hand, I like it, Yeah, I like it.

There's it's a challenge there otherwise, I mean, we've if it's just otherwise, we're just going against the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Are those types of team each and every week. You're gonna have to take some bad football teams out there too. But I don't think this is the week that I'm gonna take one of those mediocre to bad football teams just to get one of those twenty picks out of the way. I'm on a

mediocre streak right now picking mediocre teams. So final two questions, the first of which is which are the big favorites is most likely to lose out right, same candidates. I just gave a survivor including the six and a half and the seven point favorite. I would obviously go Baltimore as the most likely to lose, But Mikey, you you're going Tampaka. I think Cincinnati is more likely to beat.

But I'm just saying it. It wouldn't shock me if the Bears, like if if they can stay in it in the first half, Baltimore Gentlemen most likely to lose all those Yeah, I'll go with that. What if I reduced it? What if I took out Baltimore and New England and just made it and just made it the uh the double digit favorites, including Green Bay Lions could

win against the Rams. I mean, the Rams have had many games where they barely show up, and they just showed up big time against the Giants, So they're probably gonna come in this week. And I almost took the lines plus the fifteen and a half because of that. Um. But I could see that, you know, the Rams laying an egg this week? What are they? We're there five and one. It lost to the Cardinals where the many games they didn't show up Jared Golf last year against Oh,

you're talking about the path before they got Matthew Stafford. No, I'll tell you Rams what you want me to tell you, where where games were running they didn't show up, and that they're five and one and they lost to the only six and Arizona they didn't show up just right. They lost to six and okay, okay, well that wasn't very good at Indianapolis. At Indianapolis, I was not impressed

with their performance that day at all. And uh, okay, granted the best of the I'm just saying that Stafford is still Stafford before he went from he went from five to one for m v P. Now he's like sixteen to one. It'll look until he proves otherwise. He's still not a winner winner yet. Okay, he might be very talented player and everything like that, but there's also you have to give him some of the blame for for having Detroit be so mediocre for year after year

after year. I agree with that, Todd, and and he's excused from all of it with everybody's saying he's going to be the savior in l a right, And that's what I don't like. The nighting of him all of a sudden and all of a sudden, Oh, Stafford is fantastic. He's oh, he's a good player, and he's got a good supporting cast. But until he wins something, give me a break. The only time I remember him in the playoffs was against Dallas one year, and there was a

controversial call. Right, but that was the only game he was ever in the playoffs? Right? Was he ever in the playoffs? Alright? Final question? Thirteen games, six byes this week, thirteen games on the slate. You get to uh, you have to play a side on every one of them, but you get one pass on an already jacked up week with massive spreads. What would be the one game, James, if you had to play twelve of the thirteen, would be the one game on the side you would take

a pass on? Giants Panthers. I don't want any part of this. The Panthers going on the road as a favorite. What have we? This is Sam Donald going back to This is like Buckner going back to Shay. He's going back to the house of horrors of MetLife state name or Giants State or whatever you call it. He's gonna go back there. I don't want to hear while he's motivated to go back there, he's reverted back. He's seeing look what happened last week, the last few weeks. Yeah,

I know it. Now he's does see and now he's gonna go back and it's I'm sure he's having nightmares having to go back to MetLife Stadium, and then think about the Giants. The Giants are just awful. This is just a bad football team. It's a from top down onto the field. I think the only thing that's live in MetLife Stadium at the Giants games is uh said,

is squirming around in those catchup dispensers. And there's nothing on the field going on with the Giants right now that compels me to say, I like the home dog in the New York Giants here, even though it's typically they're the Carolina Panthers with coming back into this spot here. But the Giants at home, they've scored four touch ounds in three home games. They just gotta handed to them by the Rams. And I know Joe Judge giving him

another tongue lashing. He does it seems like he does it every single week, whether it's publicly or or inside the locker room. He guess he did the same thing this week. They're not here in his message. This is not a team that's even competitive. They scored four touchdowns in their three games and those three losses, and two of them were in garbage time, one of which was last week as well. This is just a team that

can't score I don't like either game. Maybe if I was gonna play it, I played the under but I don't want anything to do with that. But I hate to pa, I hate to pair with James on this, but that is exactly the game there's because there's so many different possibilities, right, Carolina could actually show up and blow them out, and the Giants again against the Rams.

I know the Rams ended up blowing him out, but we're never really honest about NFL outcomes, like if if Daniel Jones doesn't throw the ball around the yard or is loose with the football, you just never know. Like that game got out of hand so quickly, so I wouldn't be shocked if the Giants came out and won that game. So that's that's my play as well. Carolina the Giants. But by the way, can we just say something Mikey got so lucky in that game? Sam Donald

found a way. Sam Donald found a way to lose a game where his team blocked the punt in the fourth quarter, had the entire crowd into the game, and they were ahead and lost the Kirk Cousins. How is that possible? Because Mikey had the vikings and God likes Christians and not Juice. The Viking's totally dominated the game. He totally Mike Zimmer got to the thirty two and stopped coaching. I mean he went he watched the throw

cookers at North South Runner. He throws a toss sweep blues of three yards and rushes the punt team out of the field. Zimmers at Joe. Zimmer's a joke, Todd. The game I don't want to have any part of is the game that Gil had guess the wrong favorite on with Christie on Monday. Dolphins Falcons, I want zero. I have no idea what's going. I don't know if two was even on the team anymore. He's not listed on the depth charge one day, then he's lifted it, and I don't know. Let me ask you one question.

I was watching his Jets Falcons game a couple of weeks ago, the second half in Linne. Yeah, the quarterback, Wilson in the running back looked like they were like a foot and a half shorter than every other player on the failing They're very small. But that was when I went this will take you back when I went to a training camp for Washington years and years ago after they drafted Heath Shuler from Tennessee from Tennessee and Washington was a couple of years removed from a Super Bowl,

but they had had a bad year. That's why they got the third he just it was North Turners first year or second or whatever it was, but they had the third pick of the drift. They dried he Schuler. You took one look at he's Schuler behind center and I turned to my buddy, I swear, I go, he's the quarterback. And you could tell when they were interviewed with Gus Varatt, who was the seventh round pick that year. Gus they interviewed Gusts like, oh, so you're you know,

you're you're vying for the for the starting quarterback. Goes no, but you know we can tell he was smiling. He's like you no, it's Heath's team. He was he already knew anyway. To your point, Zach Wilson looks like that too. To some Todd what do you want no part of? I mean I agree with with James on Caroline and New York York Giants, but also the Colts Niners game. You know who's the quarterback it and then you get Carson wins on the other side, I don't want any

of that. Colt Snyders is why you can't grid this stuff out and survivor from the beginning of the year, because after week two, if you gritted it out, gritted by the way, that would have been one of your picks. You'd been like San Francisco over Indy for sure. Anyway, we gotta run because Mike he's got a show to do. It's called odds On with a mall Shaw Visa, so he's going to do that. James, I'm gonna right now quickly turn tune to Visa dot com not to miss

that because it's a fantastic show. No hyper Bowl, agreed, James, James, thank you for doing this. I know you're busy. I appreciate you doing this. Super Contest Champion for Life, James Selinus, thank you, James. Thanks going to be on with you gentlemen, Absolutely good. Good luck with your bests this weekend, everybody. And the name of the show that you do with Brady on the weekend of Visa is called the Pro Football Blitz. Pro Football Blitz alright, with former Super Contest

winner Brady Can't Brady Cannon officially changed the name. With the name change, with the legal name change, I think I'll bring that up. I'll bring that up on Saturday. Is it mad or is it Brady? Cannon? Comma and oh, by the way, I want a super contest. No, they listed in front of it now in all copies. Okay, we love Brady. Brady's always our leadoff man here. Thank you James for Mike Palm for Todd a wishnev from his mom's cork Addict because we want to locate him.

Gill Alexander, thanks for listening to the megapod. Good luck with all your picks this weekend. I'm the man of beaten Teasers.